Forward Guidance

Forward Guidance

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision. Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBW Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx

Episodes

Tariffs Are Reversing U.S Dollar Capital Flows | Bob Elliott

April 30, 2025 • 52 mins
In this episode, Bob Elliott joins the show to discuss the reversal of U.S Dollar capital flows after the announcement of Trump's tariffs. We deep dive into the U.S balance of payments problem, the changing economic order, why the U.S Dollar continues to get sold & how to structure a portfolio in this environment. Enjoy! -- Follow Bob: https://x.com/BobEUnlimited Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https:...
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Inflation Expectations Are Already Unanchored | Weekly Roundup

April 25, 2025 • 76 mins
This week, Danny Dayan joins the show to discuss his “Doom Loop” of factors weakening the dollar and increasing inflation, why inflation expectations are unanchored, and the importance of remaining nimble in fast-moving markets. We also delve into how we’re seeing equities, rate cuts, and bonds through 2025, whether the Fed can rescue growth, why the inflation problem is worse than the growth problem and more. Enjoy! — Follow Dann...
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The System Is Too Levered To Take Real Pain | Arthur Hayes

April 23, 2025 • 47 mins
In this episode, Arthur Hayes joins the show to discuss Trump’s slew of concessions sending markets higher, the evolving US-China strategy, and Bitcoin decoupling from US assets as tariffs reduce the US capital account surplus. We also delve into Treasury buybacks, the Fed & SLR exemption, potential catalysts that would trigger QE, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Arthur: https://x.com/CryptoHayes Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Fo...
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US Assets Are Dead Money Without A Policy Shift | Weekly Roundup

April 18, 2025 • 53 mins
This week, we discuss Powell’s hawkish speech, how to think about trading tariffs and the weaponization of the US account deficit, and whether we should expect a significant growth slowdown. We also delve into rate cuts & the yield curve, why Bitcoin is the trade after the trade, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follo...
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Why Systematic Macro Outperforms Discretionary | Market Radar

April 17, 2025 • 53 mins
In this episode, Arty & Gamma from the Market Radar team join the show to discuss their macro models and the importance of systematic trading, how they’re thinking about global markets today, and how deficits and tariffs are complicating the Fed’s cutting plans. We also delve into lessons for discretionary traders, what Market Radar wants to see to turn risk-on, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Market Radar: https://x.com/themarketradar ...
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BOTTOM IS IN, Says Trader Who Predicted The Crash | Mel Mattison

April 16, 2025 • 61 mins
In this episode, Mel Mattison joins the show to discuss why he thinks we’re on the cusp of another inflationary bubble, the danger of growing entitlement obligations, and what more yield curve distortions mean for markets. We also delve into how gold could be on track for $50,000/oz, how all this will impact the FX market, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Mel: https://x.com/MelMattison1 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forwa...
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The Biggest Market Crash Since 2020, What Next?

April 14, 2025 • 70 mins
This week, we join the Empire podcast to discuss where markets go next from here. After the market sold off in reaction to the Trump tariffs, we deep dive into the bull vs bear case in 2025, Trump's end game, building the perfect portfolio, Coinbase vs Robinhood, is Bitcoin really a safe haven asset & more. Enjoy! — Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz Follow Empire: https://x.com/theempirepod Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthom...
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The Trump Put Is In The Bond Market | Weekly Roundup

April 10, 2025 • 61 mins
This week, we discuss how we managed this insane week in markets, China and the evolving tariff strategy, and what’s going on with the bond market. We also delve into our expectations from the Fed, Secretary Bessent orchestrating policy behind the scenes, Bitcoin hitting ATHs in 2025, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/Forw...
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Trump Is “Kitchen Sinking” The US Economy | Darius Dale

April 9, 2025 • 56 mins
In this episode, Darius Dale of 42Macro joins the show to discuss Trump transitioning the US economy to a new paradigm, the potential for a recession and its impact on markets, and the threat of a debt refinancing air pocket. We also delve into why the Fed needs to transition to QE, how to approach portfolio allocation and risk management, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Darius: https://x.com/DariusDale42 Follow Felix: https://twitter.c...
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This Is What Capitulation Feels Like | Weekly Roundup

April 4, 2025 • 47 mins
This week, Tony Greer and Jared Dillian from Macro Dirt join the roundup to discuss the fallout of Trump’s tariffs, what markets we’re eyeing during this meltdown, and how to manage risk as a trader. We also delve into commodities, tax cuts, Bitcoin’s resilience, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Tony: https://x.com/TgMacro Follow Jared: https://x.com/dailydirtnap Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_N...
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Liquidity Is Breaking And The Economy Is Next | Michael Howell

April 2, 2025 • 69 mins
In this episode, Michael Howell joins the show to discuss the Fed & Treasury’s hidden stimulus tapering off, why we need more liquidity in the financial system to refinance debts, and why the Fed’s QE & duration goals are unrealistic. We also delve into the dislocation between the 10-year yield and mortgage rates, what China needs to do to escape its debt deflation, global liquidity’s correlation to Bitcoin’s price, and more. Enjoy...
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Why Institutions Are Betting On Tokenization | LIVE Panel From DAS

March 28, 2025 • 39 mins
In this episode, James Seyffart, Jeff Park, Robert Leshner, Ambre Soubrian, and John Mullin sit down at DAS to discuss tokenizing real world assets, how tokenization brings liquidity to assets similar to ETFs, and the opportunities around tokenized private credit, data, and more. We also delve into the next wave of institutional adoption, competing with the TradFi behemoths, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow James: https://x.com/JSeyff Fo...
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The Death Of American Exceptionalism? | Le Shrub

March 26, 2025 • 60 mins
In this episode, Le Shrub joins the show to discuss the end of American exceptionalism, overexposure to Mag7 and the US dollar, and European allocators moving away from the United States. We also delve into the era of geographic diversification, the detox period in the US to lower the 10-year and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Le Shrub: https://x.com/agnostoxxx Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter....
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The Secret To Maintaining Dollar Dominance | Joseph Wang & Austin Campbell LIVE @ DAS

March 25, 2025 • 38 mins
In this episode, Joseph Wang and Austin Campbell join the show to discuss their overview of macro after the latest FOMC meeting, the EM-ification of the United States, and how stablecoins play into the continuation of US dollar hegemony. We also delve into support for stablecoin legislation, the case against the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve & US sovereign wealth fund, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Joseph: https://x.com/FedGuy12 Follow Au...
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How To Position For 2025 | Jonah Van Bourg & Avi Felman LIVE from DAS

March 24, 2025 • 32 mins
In this episode, Jonah and Avi from 1000x join the show to discuss Bitcoin vs altcoin inflows, the Trump impact on markets, and the bull case for Bitcoin. We also delve into global liquidity, how to position for 2025, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Jonah: https://x.com/jvb_xyz   Follow Avi: https://x.com/AviFelman  Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Follow Blockworks: htt...
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The Fed & Treasury Aren’t Backing Down | Weekly Roundup LIVE @ DAS

March 21, 2025 • 39 mins
This week, we discuss takeaways from the FOMC meeting and SEP, the balance of Treasury and fiscal policy, and how a strategic Bitcoin reserve and stablecoins play into the United States’ goals. We also delve into the US sovereign wealth fund, our highest conviction trades, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Mike: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidanc...
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The U.S. Debt Crisis: Why Growth Is the Only Solution | Mohamed El-Erian Pt. 2 LIVE @ DAS

March 20, 2025 • 39 mins
In this episode, Mohamed El-Erian joins the show to discuss his Fed & QT expectations, his outlook for inflation, and the four ways the government can solve its debt problem. We also delve into stablecoins buying US debt, Bitcoin’s potential as a neutral reserve asset for global trade, the sputnik moment in Europe, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Mohamed El-Erian: https://x.com/elerianm Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forwa...
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Stablecoins Are The Next Big Buyer Of US Debt | Matt Hougan LIVE @ DAS

March 19, 2025 • 22 mins
In this episode, Matt Hougan joins the show to discuss his bullish 2025 outlook for Bitcoin, why the US government needs stablecoins, and what’s next for the broader crypto industry. We also delve into how bullish institutions are compared to retail, Bitcoin's correlation to gold, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Matt: https://x.com/Matt_Hougan Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/Forwar...
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Be Careful Buying The Dip Here | Weekly Roundup

March 14, 2025 • 55 mins
This week, we discuss the latest inflation data, the reversal of US exceptionalism, and Trump’s bold tariff bet potentially backfiring. We also delve into how we’re thinking about yields, whether 60/40 is compelling right now, why we’re in a crypto bear market, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockwo...
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The Bottom Is In For Yields, NOT Equities | Vincent Deluard

March 12, 2025 • 65 mins
In this episode, Vincent Deluard joins the show to discuss his on-the-money inflation calls and future outlook, the consequences of Trump’s tariff flip-flopping, and the buyers of US duration. We also delve into the impact of DOGE, the Trump Admin’s Treasury market goals, the surge in foreign yields, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Vincent Deluard: https://x.com/VincentDeluard Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidanc...
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