The Trade Value Leader Index

Episode Transcript
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Jacob Shapiro (00:03):
Hello listeners.
Welcome back to Geopolitical Cousins.
This is part one of the TradeValue Leader Index column,
whatever you want to call it.
Uh, Marco and I bring our top 30 leaders.
We go back and forth.
Part two will be digestingthe list and arguing about
whether we were right or wrong.
Uh, please, we want your feedback.
Email me at jacob@jacobshapiro.comor uh, marco@geopoliticalalpha.com.

(00:24):
Or you can, you know, if you just do me,I'll also make sure that Marco is CC'd.
We want your feedback on this list.
It'll be controversial.
We want the controversy.
It's great.
Um, take care of the people you love.
Cheers and see you out there.

Marko Papic (00:40):
Finally, after, uh, a long delay due to well life reality,
Israel, Iran, all that stuff.
Uh, we are finally going to doa trade value, um, list for.
Basically global leaders, so thisis based on as many things of our

(01:00):
podcast are on the, uh, bill Simmonspodcast and he does this NBA trade
value list where he basically looksat the top 50 players in the NBA and
tries to establish their trade value.
This is, this doesn't mean who's thebest player in the world, it's just
that who would you trade for who?

(01:21):
So the player that's number one onthis list would be UNT Tradeable.
Effectively, if any team calledyou and said, Hey, we want.
This guy, you would say?
No.
Um, now that's a combination of ageof salary and skill because of course,
somebody who's like, let's say 39 yearsold and extremely good, but paid a bunch
of money, may not be that UNT tradable.

(01:44):
Uh, similarly, somebody who's ranked10th on this list, it would mean
that everybody ranked one to nine.
You would absolutely trade thatplayer, uh, for those top nine.
So in the context of politics, itmeans that, let's say that the prime
minister of your country that youlive in is ranked 23rd on our list.

(02:06):
You would absolutely.
Drive your prime Minister to theairport, pack your bag and ship
them for anyone above, right?
So that's, that's kindof what we're doing here.
Um, now a couple of things I wanna say,uh, before we start as an introduction.
First of all, I'm a big believerin the Warren Buffet quote.
Uh, I try to invest in businesses thatare so wonderful that an idiot can

(02:30):
run them sooner or later, one will.
And so, um, I think both you and I,Jacob, I think we agree that fundamentally
our framework for thinking aboutgeopolitics is that we try to invest
in countries that are so wonderful thatan idiot can run them because sooner

(02:51):
or later one will so replace companywith country and, and you get, uh, a
little bit of a taste of what we do.
So this is kind of unnatural in away because I think that our, um.
You know, you and I both kind of have abias to maybe de-emphasize leadership.
Me maybe more than you, doesn't matter.
The point is, we're doing this for fun.

(03:12):
Okay.
This is cool.
It's fun.
We're gonna get to rankpoliticians around the world.
I mean, that's kind of cool.
The other thing I wanna say isthat this is not necessarily
just about current performance, Ithink it's also about the future.
So we're, we're projecting andthat's what the trade value that
Bill Simmons does with basketballplayers is also about the future.
That's why he will often rankyounger players higher than those

(03:36):
who are already mature and havealready sort of been priced in.

Yeah, that was actually, I thought that was the hardest part of
developing my own list was thinking aboutlike, the future of different leaders.
'cause if it's just like you'retrading one for today, it's like
that's a different conversationthan sort of, uh, the future.
So I'm, I'm curious tosee where we land on that.

Okay.
A couple of more things that I wanna say.
Four points I wanna make beforewe start just to orient ourselves.
Uh, first of all, we are trying to.
Rank policymakers acrossdifferent countries.
Right.
And so when I kind of floated this ideato a bunch of my friends I respect,
they say, well, that's impossible.
You know, running Greece is suchan incredibly different job from

(04:15):
running the United States of America.
So how can you possibly compare,um, prime Minister Mitsa with,
you know, president Trump?
What we're assuming here is thatthere is something inherent about
leadership, something truly universal.
And of course, Machiavelli wrotethe Prince specifically to elucidate

(04:35):
some of those universal qualities.
It wasn't just about how to be a goodprince in Italy, in an Italian city state,
although he did have chapters at theend, kind of tucked in later about that.
Mm-hmm.
It was really about somethingthat's inherent to being a leader
of other men and women in a country.

(04:56):
So our primary definition hereof a successful policymaker is
somebody who takes on the materialconstraints of their context and
sees to successfully overcome them.
So this is about bendingtime space altering reality.
And this is very unnatural to me, Jacob,because I'm such a hard nosed believer

(05:17):
that ultimately material constraintsmatter so much more than anything else.
And I'm basically arguing here.
I wanna pick those leaderswho, uh, take those material
constraints and overcome them.
Second, it also means that small countrypolicy makers may have an advantage here.
They will often be the onesthat have more, obviously,
overcome their disadvantages.

(05:38):
And you'll see that certainly in my list.
I dunno if that was the case with yours.
Um, I don't know if you, youpotentially found that as well.
And by the way, we don't know eachother's list, so this is probably
going to be a complete shit show.
Just to be clear.
Like I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm guessing wewill have no alignment, at least, at
least Bill Simmons is using statistics,you know, when he says this basketball

(05:58):
player averages this or that he knowshow much the contracts are and so on

third, well, no, but I, I listened to your prompt.
You had a couple of things that Ineeded to keep in mind, so I bet
We'll, I bet we'll land closerthan you think, but I mean, I,

I hope so.
I hope so.
So let's go through that prompt.
Uh, we have a loose hierarchy ofhow we measure one's performance.
So this is like statisticsfor a basketball player,
uh, that Bill Simmons uses.
Here's what we're using, firstapproval rating by the public.
It's kind of like po uh, points per game.
It's, it's a little bitof an empty calorie stat.
You know, you can, you canhave good stats on a bad team.

(06:31):
Um, populists obviously have great.
Popularity early in their term becausethey're giving candy to the people.
Nonetheless, we all believe that onsome level, uh, the median voter is
wise and, uh, well, at least I do.
I know Jacob less so, uh,

yes.
I think the median voter is a moron.
I I'll take that positionagainst you every time.

Such a, that's maybe the only thing where you are
more elitist than I am, you know,so, uh, but that's interesting.
The second is, come at be

median voters.
I think you're all idiots.
I will take the house against all of you.

We need the median voter to reach escape velocity on this podcast.
Economic performance.
Economic performance of the country is thenext, I mean, you know, it's objective.
We can measure it again, it can bejuiced up by populace, but we're
trying to do our best, uh, especiallyrelative to the peers by the way.
That's where it matters.
Geopolitical performance in terms ofbuilding alliances, projecting power,

(07:25):
navigating a complicated neighborhood,staying sidestepping, landmines that are
out there, choosing China versus America,trying to balance them, that's important.
Finally, military performancecould be in there too.
Uh, that could be critical for someleaders like Bibi and Zelensky.
However, I think it's very diffdifficult to personalize that.

(07:45):
I'm not sure to what extent they'reactually doing anything on the front
lines, so just keep that in mind.
Uh, finally, I just wanna remind everyone,the whole point of this is very simple.
Would you trade thisleader for somebody else?
That's, that's the point.
Uh, if you are in a particularcountry, who would you trade?
The person who leads yourcountry for someone else.

(08:07):
Now, finally, uh, last setup before we gointo it, we have, um, I think it's, uh,
well, 30, we're gonna do a list of 30,and we have several categories, uh, that
we're gonna try to smush our leaders in.
Uh, first of all, the bottom rank.
And by the way, if you'rein the top 30, you're good.
So I don't wanna hear anyone complaininglike, oh, you made so and so number 28.

(08:31):
Yeah, there's like 190 sovereigncountries in the world, right?
Like, if you are on our list,you're not doing poorly.
So the, the bottom part of our list,we call it product of a system or a
situation, you know, is this somebodywho's just like, I mean, clearly
the, the, the country's doing well.
But we're not sure if we shouldreally give them the credit.

(08:52):
So that's why they arein this bottom line.
Then we go to flawed, but effective,I felt like we should have a category
for those leaders who have someproblems with their track record, like
human rights, you know, like, ugh,this is one of those like, ugh, like
sections, but they're still effective.
So that's, that's that one.
Then we have some unprovengems that wanted a category.

(09:14):
This is where like, you know, they're,they, they look like they're really
good, but it's too early to tell,uh, that diamonds under pressure,
miracle workers, these are leaders thatare really taking their country and
massively outperforming expectations.
Uh, then UNT tradable unless, right,so these are leaders that you would
not trade unless somebody calledyou from the top five or top six or

(09:40):
however many you have, which is, I.I'm hanging up the phone right now.
That's the last category.
That means that if you had achance to trade these and somebody
calls you and says, Hey, can wetake this number one policymaker?
Uh, you would say No.
Hanging up the phone.
Okay.
Jacob.
I think that's, that's it, right?

I think you did a great job.
We we're also gonna do somehonorable mentions, uh, too, right?
To start people that were on the, on thebubble, but didn't quite make the list.

Well, let's do that at the end.
Oh,

you wanna do it at the end?
Okay.
I thought we would go bottomed up,but we can do it at the end too.
That's fine.
Yeah,

yeah.
Just, just because, you know, thenyou get a chance to explain why
some of those honorable mentionsdidn't make it on the list, right?

Yeah, yeah, you're right.
And that, that way we don't give away, uh,some that are not gonna be on the list.
So, I'm with you.
I'm with you.

Alright, cool.
So first I'm gonna start off with this,uh, with my, I actually, uh, so Jacob,
uh, in these categories, I ended updoing just five each, you know, so
there's six categories, five each.
Uh, but if you didn't,that's co totally cool.
Uh, we're gonna start off withproducts of a system in a situation.
Um, first I wanna shout outto Finland and Switzerland.
Uh, they're well run placesthat don't really seem to

(10:44):
need anybody to be in charge.
Uh, I would've loved to put the presidentof the Swiss configuration onto this
list, but they change it every year,and so it doesn't really matter.
Switzerland just chucks along andperhaps because Switzerland is such a
well run place, and yet nobody reallyknows who's in charge of it, perhaps.
That more than anything illustratesthe complete vacuous of this effort.

(11:08):
You know, Switzerland has solved theproblem by not needing anybody to lead it.
But anyways, uh, the 26 to 30 in noparticular order, but I'm gonna start
from the last Donald task of Poland.
Luca Doche at 29 of Slovenia.
Oh, I'm sorry, I, sorry, my bad.

(11:28):
Robert Goup of Slovenia at 29.
Lawrence Wong of Singapore at 28,although he could have also been in the
two new, two fresh, uh, to know too soonto tell category, uh, OLF Christen of
Sweden and met f Fredrickson of Denmark.
So as you can see, a lot ofadvanced OECD sort of wealthy

(11:50):
places that are just well run.
I can't tell if it's the leadershipor not the case for Donald Tusk.
Cover of the Economist, probablyk Poland's kind of riding high.
You know, there's a lotof Poland hype out there.
Um, I think I have a gut feelinghe's a Superior Commission president,
then president of Poland, uh,then Prime Minister of Poland.

(12:12):
Um, but that's just me.
Why did I put Slovenia here?
Just crushing it.
Goop came out of nowhere.
Um, new movement, kind of the EmmanuelMacron of Slovenia has done really well.
Popularity is down a little bit,but, uh, generally the economy
and Slovenia are doing extremelywell in their neighborhood.
Lauren Swang, uh, you know,has been in power really since

(12:35):
May 20, 24, so not that new.
His speech after April 2nd, uh, tariffannouncement was probably the best
pushback and you would not have expectedthat to come from Singapore, which
usually tries to have a low profile.
Um.
Speech against those tariffswas really, really impassioned
and, and excellent wolf.

(12:55):
Christen, why is theSwedish Prime Minister here?
Well, a very complicated coalitionactually with Swedish Democrats that
they've navigated extremely smoothly.
So this is the far right populist party,obviously NATO membership, um, you know,
lots of things going on Generally, uh.
I think that's very impressive.
And then finally met the f fredricksonhandling of Trump, number one.

(13:18):
Uh, I think that this wholeGreenland thing didn't take the bait.
She's done great.
And I think that was a, areally good performance.
So those are my 26 to 30 in reverse order.

I. Gotcha.
All right.
Mine was, mine was 25 through30, so I put, I put an additional
person in this category, somine weren't five per category.
I moved things around a little bitand I really struggled with the
system thing 'cause I could put toomany people in the system thing.
So I sort of like, this is my allflawed but serviceable, almost category,
all smooshed because I couldn't, Icouldn't figure out how to make the
system thing work with the rest of thelist, which is probably my own thing.

(13:50):
Um, it's interesting too, by the way,I'll tell you that Lawrence Wong will
make an appearance much higher on my list.
I think you're under indexingfuture potential in that pick.
This is somebody who years down theroad, like, I like him and he is
already done some other stuff, not justas, uh, as, as, uh, president, like,
you know, he was the one who helpeddesign some of Singapore's pandemic
policy sort of behind fiscal policy.

(14:10):
He's.
Calm, he's globally fluent.
I asked Chad GPT to give me a scoutingreport on him based on a basketball
player and it's spit back at me.
High efficiency governancein a clean package, like a
macro economic Kyle Corver.
I'm happy to get Kyle Corver with thethir, with the, you know, with that.
So anyway, he's much further on mylist, but here, here here's where I'll
go from 30, um, up to 25 at 30, I'mgonna put in Abby Ahmed in Ethiopia.

(14:33):
Um, he's actually made a ton ofmissteps and the civil war with the
Tigray has been very, uh, destructive.
I think before that though, Ethiopiawas a darling of emerging markets
and I think he is trying to forge.
A, an Ethiopian national identity.
So in terms of like, like scale of, uh,not like a degree of difficulty, uh, I
think he's had a really, really hard thingand he is trying to do something that

(14:56):
is unprecedented in Ethiopian historyand maybe even in African history.
So I put him on the list for there.
Uh, 29 we get Paul Kagame and Rwanda.
Hmm.
Uh, he almost dropped off the listbecause getting kind of old and, you know,
there's some other things happening now.
It sort of seems like we're doinganother version of the Congo Wars.
Is he really gonna have the stamina?
But think about where Rwanda wasbefore Paul Kagame and think about

(15:17):
where, where it is right now.
He's on the list for me.
Uh, at 28, I had Emmanuel Macron,he would've been much higher,
except that he's a lame duck.
He won't be here for much longer.
Mm-hmm.
So if this were 2017, probablywould've put him higher up.
He's got lots of problems.
He wears thin domestically.
Um, nobody actually likes him,so he like, thinks strategically
and tries to do lots of things.

(15:38):
And I appreciate how hetried to go against Francis.
Constraints failed in a lot of differentways, but hey, you get points for
trying, but he's low on the listbecause not that much time left for him.
Uh, right next to him at 27.
I'll throw in Friedrich Mers.
I can't, I'm not really surewhat to make of him quite yet.
Like, uh, his first, like, steps out ofthe gate were not great, like, didn't
get the chancellorship on the first vote.
Those were like basic blocking andtackling errors that made me skeptical.

(16:00):
So I've thrown him in there.
He, he made it to the top of Germany.
But timing, like lots of different things.
Um.
To say there, and then rounding outmy top two for this category at 26,
I've got Abdul Fata LSI in Egypt.
Dictator strongman probably doesn'ttransport to a lot of different
geographies well, but as a militarystrongman has done a remarkable job in
a sort of powder keg of a country with120 million plus people, which was on the

(16:24):
verge of going to the Muslim Brotherhood.
Uh, and at 25, I'll throw inIlham Aliev in Azerbaijan.
Mm-hmm.
Um, Azerbaijan has gonefrom strength to strength.
They won the Nur Carrabba war.
They're punching significantlyabove their weight from economic
performance doing extremely well.
He's this far down in the list becausehe's ultimately a resource autocrat.
So I'm not sure that Ali'sgame travels very much, but

(16:46):
it's perfect for Azerbaijan.
And Azerbaijan has done so wellcompared to, say, its neighbor Armenia
or some others, uh, in the Southcaucuses that I think he warrants,
uh, inclusion in this category.
So there, there's my, my 30 through 25.

So what, who, so Ethiopia 30 Rwanda, 29 France 28.
Uh, 27.
I missed, sorry.
Uh, I didn't put it down.
Friedrich

Mers, Germany.
Oh, yeah.
Germany.
Germany.

Germany.
Interesting.
Uh, you have, yeah.
Okay.
Uh, I struggled.
Um, I struggled myself, uh, with, uh, Ali.
I, I thought of adding him as well,and I think that's an interesting one.
The other ones do, uh, make a appearancefor me as well, except for e Egypt's, uh,

(17:33):
cc he doesn't, uh, just that, uh, I don'tknow what to make of it yet, you know?
Uh, mm-hmm.
Uh, obviously navigating post Arabspring is, is a big deal, so maybe I, I
feel bad now that he's not on my list.

Yeah.
I mean, I think it's easyto forget how chaotic things
were in age of 20 13, 20 14.
But like Mohammed Morsey wasthere, the Muslim Brotherhood was
ascendant, like Mubarak, and themilitary had been discredited.
And then like, boom, thisguy just comes in goodbye.
Muslim Brotherhood,goodbye like Arab Spring.
Like we're just going back tomilitary dictatorship again.
That doesn't travel particularly well.
Like Abdul fatal.

(18:07):
He's not winning any Democratic elections.
That's why he's like, but in, justin terms of like, would you want him
in charge of the machinery of state?
Yeah.
He has shown himself to be a stablehand, at least when it comes to that.

Okay, good.
Um, yeah.
Uh, the other thing that I wouldsay is that product of a system,
I think you chose a lot of peoplethat actually I have higher.
Mm-hmm.
Um, because I'm not sure thatanyone can be really a product
of Ethiopia or Ze Bijan.
Those are very difficult places to rule.
So the fact that you havethem this slow is interesting.
You know, I chose leaders whoit's difficult for me to assess

(18:41):
whether they are performing wellor whether they're just running.
Really well run countries.
And so that's where, you know, likethat's where Lawrence Wong or met the f
Fredrickson, I mean, met the Fredricksonhas done a, a, a really admirable job,
uh, in Denmark on many different fronts.
Um, but particularly with theascendancy of Donald Trump, the
way that they've handled that.

(19:01):
On the other hand, Fredericksonis running Denmark, you know,
how difficult is really that?
So that's where Well,

yeah, and I think this is one of the most difficult
things in this exercise is totry and compare across things.
'cause I had her much higher too,like both sh Oh, interesting.
Both, both.
She and Lawrence Wong, for meare in the, I'm hanging up in 30
seconds, so I'll think about it.
I, you know, but I, for me, they'rehigh functioning technocrats or elite
lieutenants, like the sorts that I wouldsort of trust, like if you put met to
Frederickson in charge of Ethiopia.

(19:30):
She might do some reallyinteresting things.
And I think when you, I think the otherthing about democracies is I think we
don't wanna underestimate how mm-hmm.
Difficult it is to get to thetop echelons of democratic power.
Um, it's a different skillset than say, you know, a Paul
Kagame or something like that.
But like somebody who's gotten to thetop of Denmark and is crushing it like
that to me, like has, and if you getto the top of the Singapore system,

(19:52):
like that to me is telling me thatyou have some political credentials,
uh, credentials that could follow.
Whereas some of the others in thiscategory, like I think they are
flawed, but serviceable statesmen andstates, women, they have a low ceiling.
But if you just plugged them in, uh,yeah, they would give you some stability.
So like, if you're in.
I dunno, let's think of areally screwed up country.
If you're in like, uh, Kazakhstan ismaybe a bad example, but if, if you're

(20:14):
in a country, uh, let's talk Vietnam,like Vietnam has been in the midst of
a power transition back and forth fora couple of years right now, and you
came and said, here, I'll trade you.
Like met to Frederickson, you'd belike, yeah, I'll take met to Fredericks.
That, that sounds great to me.
So

cool.
Okay.
Well I'm glad that you didn'tthink that my list was overly
indexed to Europe, because youhave at least FedEx in there too.

I do.
Although I did not have Donald Tuskand, uh, Slovenia's not on my list.
Just 'cause I, I'm not up to date onSlovenia, sorry guys, but Donald Tusk
and of Christensen, like I consideredthem, but they did not make my list over.

Okay, good.
But I'm glad you considered them.
At least that's, um, I struggledreally with this category at the end.
It was sort of like, you know, youcould have gone a lot of different ways.
I thought about Ethiopia, myself in Egypt.
So, uh, good.
So far, so good.
Nothing, nothing thatwe really disagree with.
Right.

Uh, no, I, the only thing is like, I think, yeah, Lawrence Wong
for me is much, much higher on my list.
Okay.
But everything else, I'm, I'm with you.

Alright, cool.
Okay, well let's go to the nextone, which is flawed, but effective.
And, and I felt it, uh,several of your picks really
for me fit into this category.
In fact, I have two, I have two that youpicked a little bit higher because, uh, I
see them as flawed, but quite effective.
So I start off at 25.

(21:28):
Uh, for me, 25 obviously.
Uh, you picked six, I picked five.
I started off with Erdogan.
Mm. So I have him, uh,on my list pretty low.
I suspect we might have some disagreementon this because I know of course that
you have, uh, you hold Turkey and it'sgeopolitical potential in high regard.

(21:49):
But I'm almost penalizing Reep typeErdogan because of that, because I feel
that he should have done much betterwith what he has working for him.
I don't feel that Turkey has reallymoved, I mean, uh, to expand its
sphere of influence and yes, I, Iunderstand that you've been pointing
out its gains in the Middle East.

(22:10):
However, the true, I think, sphereof influence that Turkey should be
crushing is as it always has beenbetween the Danube and the E gn.
That is where Turkeyshould be projecting power.
The other issue is thateconomy has been mismanaged.
It just absolutely has been.
Now there's been incredible improvementover the last two years, but that's

(22:33):
because it started off with a low base.
And unlike Javier Malay, who you canreward for the last 12 months of Orthodox
policies, you can't really reward Erdoganfor shifting towards more orthodoxy when
he was the one that implement implementedunorthodox policies to in the first place.
So I have him pretty low on, on this list.

(22:54):
I'll, I'll fly through myother four really quickly and.
Uh, I got Azerbaijan Ilham Ali of 24.
Yep.
Uh, pretty much for allthe reasons that you said.
So I don't wanna, uh, kindof waste, uh, time on that.
I think the one thing that maybe youdidn't mention is, uh, maneuvering
between Turkey, Russia, and Europe.
Uh, the fact that somehow magicallyAzerbaijan has been able to tra

(23:16):
transit Russian natural acid to Europeand not get into trouble for it.
Well done.
Slow clap for, uh, Aliyah.
Very well done.
And, and

decent relations with Iran.
Decent relations with Israel, like really,like some upper level statesmanship.

By the way, we've lost all our Armenian friends.
I will not be allowed back into Glendaleor, or my adopted hometown of Montreal.
So I apologize to my, all my immediatefriends who are listening to, but
if you are honest with yourself.
You'll concede, you'll bow, bow downyour head in silent moment of despair and

(23:51):
agree that Azerbaijan has been blessedwith relatively effective leadership.
Although, yes, as you pointed out,Jacob, we have to note that of
course, it's easy to run a countrywhose wealth is greased by commodity,

uh, exports.
So that's Yeah.
But, but, but they're in a difficultneighborhood to, to our Armenian
friends, like I think any of youwould trade your leadership for the
leadership of, of the Aliya family.
I think

that's Well, and, and by the way, if you disagree, tell us.
Tell us if, if you would, but, uh, fromspeaking to my Iranian friends and from
observing Armenia, like the leadership,uh, vacuum has been pretty significant.
So I agree with you.
Uh, 23rd on my list.
Anwar Ibrahim.
Hmm.
Good one.
Shut.
Yeah.
Malaysia.
Uh, first of all, uh, if there is oneperson on this list who has adopted, just

(24:37):
like that ability to resurrect themselves,reinvent themselves, God bless Ibrahim.
He has, uh, he's a survivor.
Clearly.
He is, uh, been in and out of court.
He's been, uh, attackedby the elites in Malaysia.
He's done a lot of different things.
I also think that he has handled Malaysiangeopolitics excellence since 2022,

(24:57):
and also during the financial crisis.
Uh, remember he was in charge andMalaysia did escape most of that East
Asian crisis back now, 30 years ago.
So he's, he's done really well.
Um, I. Iman Macron is on this list for me.
Flawed, but effective.
Again, it's different.
It's difficult because I, I feel likemost of our French listeners will just
say like, you guys are smoking crack.

(25:20):
Um, nobody likes him, as you said.
But look, here's the case for Macron.
Um, he's managed to build acentrist coalition out of nothing.
He's stayed in power a long time.
Uh, and I think he's fallenshort of a lot of the things
that he's done, uh, domestically.
But generally speaking, I think thefact that he asserted the two party

(25:40):
system in France, like with hisbare hands is, uh, is impressive.
And finally, I have Paul Kagame, right?
Flawed, flawed, but effective.
Now you have Paul Kagame 29th.
I have him 21st.
Uh, astonishing economicdevelopment in Rhonda.
I think we all agree with that.
Um, I think the focus onhealthcare and education.

(26:01):
Wow.
Like right.
Yeah, this is, this is theSingapore economic model just,
just imported into Rwanda.
Like well done, obviously, um, on andoff supporting insurgent in Congo.
Not sure what the, whatthe winner gets, but Sure.
And obviously troubleddomestic track records.
One of those domestic track recordswere like, you may not be able to

(26:24):
retire, if you know what I mean.
And that's not surethat that was necessary.
Um.
That's it.

Yeah, no, I, like, I, I think he belongs on the list.
If he were 10 years younger,he'd be higher on my list.
Like my interesting, including himat 29 is just about an age thing.
And he's been around for a long time andeventually things are, are gonna run out.
But I think you're right.
And I think he's actually,he's been masterful in the
way he interfered with Congo.
Like, I mean, when you think about whereRwanda was in the mid nineties and how he,
you know, strategically positioned Rwandainto a real force to be reckoned with

(26:53):
against much larger countries around it.
I think he deserves it.
I think we should spend just a second.
I should have had Anwar Ibrahim on thislist and I, I don't have him on the list.
Um, that's a mistake on my part though.
I needed to make roomfor him and I didn't.
So I take your point there.
Erdowan is not that much higher for me.
I'll give away that.
He was number 16 on my list.
Um, again, here though, thisis more about his age, like.
Erdogan is at the end of his career, sortof like a hall of Famer on their last leg.

(27:17):
So he's still dangerous.
He's still got some punches tothrow, but there's not a whole
lot left, I think of Erdogan.
I think your shorts No, no, go ahead.

No, no, please, please go ahead.

Just I think you're short selling a little bit of his,
of his accomplishment because hismain accomplishment is to take when,
you know, when he became mayor ofIstanbul, um, in, what was that late.
Late nineties, I forget the exact year.
Um, Turkey was truly a dividedcountry where you had the liberal
secular, you know, cosmopolitan.
We're gonna drink rocky and sit on thebosphorous and eat fish crowd versus

(27:47):
the central anatol, conservativeheartland, you know, looked down upon
by the cosmopolitans in Istanbul.
And Erdogan has forged a coherentcountry out of both of these.
He put the Anatolian conservativesnot completely in power.
It's not like he's completely dismantledthe cosmopolitanism of Istanbul
and all the things that have madewhoever controls the Bosporus and

(28:08):
incredibly important trading partnerand all these other things, but he's
integrated them into the economy andhe's shown an incredible amount of
economic flexibility in doing so.
Remember, this is the guy who was givingme all the IMF reforms in the late two
thousands, into the early 2010s, likedoing all the things by the book, but
then when he needed to grease the wheels.
And to secure arrangements with allof these different parts of society.

(28:29):
Sure.
Let's do a little state led, youknow, Archy and like, you know, let's
make sure that the right people werein control of the right industries.
And if that means I have unorthodoxmonetary policy, so be it.
I'll just call up my friends in SaudiArabia and I know that they'll bail me out
because they don't want me as an enemy.
I'm worse to them as anenemy, as as anything else.
So I think he's reachingthe end of his rope.
I think you can see that, you know, in,uh, in arresting and imprisoning Ima mlu,

(28:52):
like, I don't think that's gonna age well.
You can see he's trying to maybeposition sons or sons inlaws or like
other fa like all these things Ithink are not gonna go well for him.
Um, but I think he's, I think Turkey isin a much more powerful and economically
prosperous situation than it was before.
And I think he really threaded the needleon a country that very easily could have
gone, you know, in a different look atother countries in the Middle East and how

(29:14):
they dealt with conservative, more Islamicaspects of society and the way he was able
to forge something coherent out of that.
I mean, let's not invokeadd a Turk, but hey, he's at
least doing a good impression.

Okay.
So,

um, I think I, I, my entire first six were all flawed but serviceable.
So I think what you should do nextis you should read your next category
and then I'll do my next category.
'cause I don't, I don'twant to get in front of your
categories, if that makes sense.

Sense.
Oh, okay.
But, uh, do you wanna restate,uh, your next five or,

I think you should state your next and
then I'll follow on behind you.
I think that's Got it.
If, if we're, if we're keepingup with categories, that's
what's gonna line up best.

Okay.
Okay, cool.
So the next one is unproven gems.
Correct?

Yeah.
So though I, this wasn't make the G20 photo or is this unproven gems?

Uh, this is the unproven gems.

Oh, okay.
Um, I had make the, the G20 photo, but that's fine.
It's all, that's fine.
It's all still good.
Okay, so,

so I, I stopped at 21.
And by the way, uh, somy last one was Paul Kme.
I'm, you know, a lot about frontiermarkets, um, that I don't really
follow very closely, so I'm veryglad that you've kind of confirmed
that that was a good pick.
I, I'm, I'm glad we're aligned on that.
Alright.
Unproven gems.
Unproven gems for me are basicallykind of like, um, you know,

(30:33):
lots of potential out there.
I start off with AnthonyAlbanese in Australia.
Done, well so far, verydifficult situation.
Um, a more isolationistto the United States.
There's the cus review.
Uh, he's trying to, uh, he'strying to pivot Australia away from
what was, uh, extremely unipolar.
Uh, basically worldview.

(30:55):
It was really the only country,I think on the planet that just
decided like, world is bipolar.
China US is gonna go into a cold war.
Uh, he's saying like, wait a minute.
That doesn't seem like what'shappening, so maybe I should adjust
the foreign policy of Australia.
And I think that's correct.
Number 19,
unproven Gem.

(31:17):
Leo 14th, the Vatican.

Nice.
I knew you would like that.
Not on my list.

Not on your list.
Oh, not on

my list.
There we go.
Not on my list.

Number 18, Friedrich Mez.
Um, quite frankly, Friedrich Mez,I mean, he's, uh, on your list as
27, just because you don't know.
Um, I put him at 18.
Quite frankly, I think we willboth be proven, uh, to have
not picked him high enough.
I think, uh, so far what I've seen is, uh,quite frankly, really, really impressive.

(31:50):
Number 17, Mark Carney.
Uh mm-hmm.
He gets a nod over Mertz justbecause I think it's more
difficult for him than for Mertz.
Uh, but, uh, doing very well.
We talked a couple of, uh,episodes before about structural
reforms going on in Canada.
He has just submitted the one Canadabill legislation that is going to

(32:12):
break down barriers between provinces.
And I do believe that is going to pass.
And I think that Canada willfinally be like all other countries
on the planet, a federal entity,which it hasn't been thus far.
So that is actually enormous.
I mean, some studies show that if theyactually get that through, creating
an economy will benefit massively.
Like it will grow like a whole percenthigher, um, because of those reforms.

(32:37):
Mm-hmm.
And then finally, this is gonna be maybea controversial, uh, pick, maybe not.
Ahmed Al.

Aha.
I uh, that's a great pick.
I left him off.
He was in my honorable mentions.
'cause um, I think he's very speculative.
Like you, you might have found Nicola Yoicor you might have found, uh, I don't know,
insert some other European player thatdidn't make it, that got drafted that way.
But what he's done so faris very, very impressive.

Well, what's impressive is this is the former al
basically Al-Qaeda aligned leader.
Not basically

like, like yes, he was Al-Qaeda.

He was Al Al-Qaeda.
Yes.
Uh, what's interesting thoughabout him and his family and what
makes me pause here is that he'sactually extremely well educated
person from a very educated family.
Uh, so he is, uh, I think hewent to school, uh, for medicine.
Um, and he is married to somebodywho comes from a very prominent

(33:33):
political family that has verydeep roots in Syria, in the elites.
So, um, his father was alsoa, a prominent, uh, I think
member of previous governments.
Uh, so this is not somebodythat just picked up an AK 47 off
like a farm and joined Alqaeda.
This is somebody who was frustratedwith what was going on in his

(33:54):
country, very well educated and,uh, fought against the side.
And of course, the easiest wayto get resources and weapons at
the time was to join Alqaeda, um,or join its various offshoots.
So thus far, uh, just an incrediblesavvy understanding of PR and marketing.
I mean, he scored an interviewwith, uh, you know, AUR on CNN.

(34:18):
Uh, he looks great in a suit.
He is hedging a lot of different risks.
Sharia law, this, that, uh, Israel,Iran, the only country in the entire
region that was very quiet about it.
Um, and I think that.
It's been very impressive,uh, performance.
Of course, the problems are what has beenreleased over the last couple of days.
There's now evidence of, you know,sectarian violence against the alloys.

(34:42):
I mean, he needs to crush that ASAPif he's going to remain on this list.
But I've got him at 16

or he just needs to crush all the alloys.
I'm not sure the alloys havelong to go in Syria based.
I mean, they had their time in the sun ledby a pretty brutal series of dictators.
Um, yeah, Leo the 14th, not on my list.
I don't think anyone would trade,uh, a White Sox fan for, uh, any
of these other leaders going on

here.
Oh, wow.

Oh, shots fired.

That was the problem.
Not these baseball dancing age or, youknow, like I listen if you can, if you
can survive the conclave of the cardinalsand the backstabbing that happens there.
You know what I mean?
Like you're good.
And I dunno, we'll see, but I threwhim in there because you and I have
a great affinity to talk about, uh,in, in inner workings of the Vaticans.

(35:27):
So I figured why not?

Yeah, yeah.
Why not?
Merz Mers would've been hired forme, except that, you know, that
thing where he didn't get electedchancellor on the first vote.
That was sort of like JR Smith callingTime out in game one of that, uh, you
know, know how many timeouts you have,man, that's like a basic, fundamental task
of how you're gonna do these things if youcan't do like, so maybe he'll be great.
And I appreciate that he'sworking against constraints here,
but he got penalized for me.

(35:49):
Uh, Bo both Albanese and Carneyare higher up on this list.
Well,

well I'm glad I was worried.
I was very, very self-consciousabout putting Alban here.
Uh, because I thought you were gonna makefun of me, and I also expected, I also
expected you to really shit all over myMark Carney pick and call me a homer.
So, uh, I may have even brought himlower just because I was self-conscious
and afraid of being made fun of.

No, I, I think Carney's okay.
I think he's got a tough job ahead of him.
I think that caving on that digitalservices tax shows you just, that Canada
doesn't have a lot of options and thathis job is gonna be to, you know, make
the best deal possible he can withDonald Trump in the United States without
completely bending over backwards.
So he's got a high degree of difficulty.
But, um, you know, if you're thinkingabout would you trade your current leader
for somebody like Mark Carney, like,he's gonna, like, he's higher up for me

(36:37):
because I think you can, if you startthinking about it that way, I think
there are a lot of countries in the worldwould be like, yeah, I'll take that guy.
He seems let's pretty smart.
Good, let's good like hand on the wheel.

So let's explain what we mean by that.
I mean, uh, essentialbankers come and go, right?
But having a smooth,sophisticated, and yet comfortable
with being in a small town.
Central banker, there is only one of one.
Mario Drag may be the bestdressed person on the planet.
Uh, Mario Draghi may be the highestIQ person on the planet, but I don't

(37:09):
think that Mario Drag would've been ascomfortable in a small Canadian town
discussing junior hockey as Mark Carney.
And that's because he actuallywas born in Northwestern
territories, not even a province.
It's pretty much like Iraqis asfar as you're concerned, or hot
more appropriately climatically.
And so he does have small townappeal and uh, ability to actually

(37:31):
seem genuine, um, and authentic.
And that's really a difficult combinationto both be a macroeconomics nerd.
And have that authenticity

well, and really understands the anglosphere,
like, understands Canada deeply,understands the UK deeply, I think
understands the United States deeply.
Like he's, you know, in that sense,he has a deep knowledge of where he
comes from and is able to balance someof these pressures against each other.
So yeah, I'm, I'm not, I have noproblems with Kearney whatsoever.
I still think he's not governing a futuresuperpower, but we can, we don't have to
take you through the, the coals for that.

(38:03):
Alright, well my next, my nextcategory goes from 24 to 21.
Um, and I didn't reallyhave it as unproven gems.
This is really just anothergrab bag of leaders that I
thought sort of belong together.
That's okay.
Okay.
Yeah.
Um, but, you know, um, but anyway, soat 24, I have pro Bwo in Indonesia.
Mm-hmm.
Um, this is a guy who has changedhis stripes many different times.
He was a military.
Or really, you know, an assistant toa military dictator, did some human

(38:26):
rights violations, stayed around thoughfor decades, eventually makes a deal
to become vice president with Jai.
Now he's finally, uh, the presidentshowing off some of his like negative
qualities and making the biggest cabinetin Indonesia history and all the pork
barrels spending and everything else.
But hey, like you get points forsticking around four decades in both a
military dictatorship and a democracy.

(38:47):
I think somebody who knowslike how to get power, how to
exert power and how to survive.
So I'll take him there.
He might get pushed down lower.
Um, some of his earlyreturns on his first,

well, that's the thing.
Couple months in power.
If I could just interject, please.
I thought about it.
I thought about it, is just thatit's just so hard to follow Joco.
Widodo.
It is.
And if Joco Widodo was here.
You know, I don't really have honorablementions, to be honest with you, Jacob.
I have some that don't make thelist and that I think are terrible.
But many people think they're good.
But I have this kind of like, oh,I wish they were still in charge.

(39:18):
Like, yeah, I have a mancrush in Mario Draghi.
What?
Sumi?
Uh, and I kind of had a man crush in JokoWidodo, think the man like, did amazing
stuff and brought Indonesia to the map.
So now I just, you know, it's kindof like when all these basketball
players were kind of promotedby the NBA as the next Michael
Jordan, I ended up not liking them.
Like I was not a Vince Carter fan, andnot just because he stabbed Toronto

(39:41):
Raptors in the back, but I justdidn't like him because the PR machine
tried to make him the next MichaelJordan, and I just don't think the
Provo is anywhere close to Joe Dodo.
So anyways, that's, he is not,

he is not.
He and j and he Jacobi did a great job.
But, but to extend your metaphor to areally painful extent, you know, j Jacobi
reminds me of, um, I remember like, uh.
Late nineties still, you know,sports Illustrated was still a thing.
And I vividly remember the cover of SportsIllustrated when they were like, Jerry
Stackhouse, the next Michael Jordan.
I think Jerry Stackhouseis Jae in this metaphor.

(40:12):
Like everybody was like, eh, andyou know, he had a fine career,
but like, he didn't, he didn'tactually fundamentally change things.
Like, I don't think that, um, I thinkthat now that he's gone, like his
imprint will not stand the test of time.
And that's because Indonesia's impossible.
Um, Indonesia, by all like,is not really a nation state.
All the different languages, all thedifferent ethnicities, all of the di
you know, it's literally a bunch ofislands that are strung together in
some kind of strange federal structure.

(40:34):
Like really, really highdegree of difficulty.
So if Jacobi were around, weup him, but, you know, fail,
failed to leave as imprint.
The next two are gonnabe controversial for me.
They're boring.
Um.
And I'm sure our leaders from New Zealandand the UK will say, there's no way
that you should have these leaders here.
But again, we're talking aboutwould you trade these leaders
for what I currently have?
And if you start putting yourself inthe shoes of people in Equatorial Guinea

(40:55):
or Guana, well, actually I shouldn'tsay Guatemala, but you know, uh, some
of these other Nicaragua like you wouldtrade for these people in a heartbeat.
So Christopher Luxon in NewZealand, you get 23 and Kiir
Starmer 22, just competent.
They're fine.
They're not gonna break things.
They're not gonna change things,but like, just find competent
leadership that you would trade,uh, if you had sort of a bad time.
Um, and then coming in at 21, um,I have Cy Ramos of South Africa.

(41:19):
Um, and I think that he has showedhimself to be a pretty adept politician.
I think he has dealt withTrump, uh, correctly.
He's in an impossible situationin South Africa and has played
the game, uh, relatively well.
Um, so, and I, I think he has, youknow, reformist desires, but he's
sort of crippled by the A NC andsome of their, uh, dysfunction.
But I, he's got a very, very hard job andhe's doing a decent job considering the

(41:42):
challenges that he has in front of him.

Do you wanna go on or shall we stop here for you?

Uh, we can go on whatever you want.
You're the mc?
Yeah, why don't we, I'm happy to go on.

Yeah, why don't you complete it, because, you know, I'm at 15 now, so
why don't you go to your next, uh, okay.

My next list, 20 through 15 here.
This, uh, what, what was thename of this category for you?

Well, I think we've kind of like, uh, moved away from that.
For me, it was diamondsunder pressure, but

Okay.
Yeah.
For me this was like, uh, sort of the samething, but more like, like tragic flaw.
Like, these countries are reallylucky to have these guys, but they
have some flaw that just makesit, eh, like you would trade them
if you could get a better offer.
So coming in at 20 isLula de Silva in Brazil.

Ooh,

wow.
Um, wow.
Yeah.

First huge disagreement.

Because you've got him higher up or 'cause
you've got 'em lowered down

because, I mean, I don't have 'em at all.
You know, you don't have
'Jacob Shapiro: em at all.
Ooh, no.
Lula.
I think that's a mistake and our Brazilianlisteners will call you out for it.
The things that Lula has done over hiscareer are absolutely extraordinary.
Yes, he has survived.
Agreed, incredible things.
Agreed.
He's at the end of the rope,so maybe like, I penalized him.
I he would've been further upif this was young Lula, but
he's done incredible things for
this.
I view if this was like first termLula, he would've been top five.

(42:52):
I'm hanging down the phone.
I completely agree with you.
But this is, this is like,pick picking Michael.
Uh, sorry.
This is like picking LeBronJames in the top 20 trade value.
I mean, yeah, he puts up the stats, butyou're looking at $56 million 39-year-old
playing on knees that have seen, theyhave gone around the world three times.
You know, like, hey, hey

La LeBron's still pretty good there.
Uh, I think it was on Zack Lowe'spodcast where they were rumoring,
you know, uh, the Knicks might tradeEnobi and bridges and something else.
Point.
It's LeBron.
LeBron can still take you places

under Noia bridges.
IIA Bridges for LeBron James.
Oh yeah.
Come on.

Wonderful player.
I'll, I'll take Lula.
I like, I like he's got,he's got a tragic flaw.
Like he could never, like, you know, mostof Brazil's congress is center, right?
Like his dream of Brazil hasn'tnecessarily come to pass, but I
think Jacob's been a skilled leader.
Yeah.

Jacob, this is the way I see it.
Uh, Tupac Shakur's career really goespre jail, post jail, you know, pre jail.
He is writing basically American poetry.
Right?
Changes.
Uh, dear mama, my letter to thepresident, like, just fascinating.
Post jail.
Yes.
Some of that stuff is full of just smoke.

(44:07):
And anger and it comes outta the gut,but it's like hit them up, you know?
It's not really, it's not poetry.
And so Lula to me, same as Tupac, there'spre jail Lula, there's Pogel Lula.
And I think jail changed him, man.
I think he just became a bitterpopulist, and that's just, I think
that Brazil will be very lucky, uh, toget rid of him in the next election.

(44:28):
But, and again, that is not to say thatI disagree with anything you've said.
Absolute survivor and his firstterm, like almost flawless, although
he was riding the coattails ofthe Kaari bull market nonetheless.
No, nonetheless, I agree with you on that.
Um, but sorry, I interrupted you.
Well, no, no, no.

And I, and I often say that Brazil reminds me the
most of, of any country in theworld that reminds me of the United
States in terms of its politics.
Brazil reminds me of theUnited States the most.
Yes.
And there's an arc here where Lula becomesthe Joe Biden of Brazil, and where Mr.
Bolsonaro is, is waiting in the wings.
But, you know, if, if we hadbeen talking about Biden.
Before it was obvious that he wassenile, like 20, 21 version of

(45:04):
Biden like that, you know, I thinkthat's sort of where I'm going here.
But anyway, uh, roundingup this section for me.
So at 19, I hate having him here, but Idon't think we can avoid Mr. Victor Orban.
I.

Oh wow.
He has been

in power for quite some time.
He is certainly not a liberal.
Um, but I think also, uh, the, theopposition in Hungary has demonized
him to an incredible extent.
He's been ahead on lots of differentthings when it comes to geopolitics.
I think he's very, very smart andexcellent tactician like I would, and
he's, he's played the game very well.
In terms of geopolitics, hesaw the world being multipolar.

(45:38):
Well, before, before I was talkingabout Multipolarity, Victor Orban
was preparing for multipolarity, sohe gets some props from me there,
but he's fundamentally a liberal.
Like there are places there, thereare countries that he just can't go
to because he cannot brook descent.
He's got that authoritarian instinctin him, so he's got that tragic flaw.
Uh, 18.
You can feel the vibe of thiscategory now, Benjamin Netanyahu.

(45:58):
Another incredible tactician,a politician's politician.
Nobody better at thefootwork like can do it all.
He is got, he can do theright hand, the left hand.
He is got the jump hook, he is gotthe three point shot, everything
else, and yet cares more abouthimself than his own country.
Oh yeah.
And cares more about ownsurvival than anything else.
And that narcissism, like it makeshim such a great politician and he

(46:19):
can position his country, you know,especially a country like Israel, which
isn't polarized and divided like he canbe a north star for that type of country.
But like a deep tragic flaw.
I don't think's legacy.
Do you know who's my,

I think my comp for him in basketball terms would probably
be Gilbert do arenas honestly.
There you go.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Right down to bringing the gun to thelocker room and uh, toting it around.
We've gotta get Iran guys, this is whyI've got the gun in the locker room.

Yeah.
Dero basically, what's his name?
Critter's career.
Critter.

Yeah.
Javaris.
Yeah.
Whatever.
Yeah, he went to Georgia Tech.
I remember that.
So shout out Georgia Tech.
Well done David at seven.
At 17 Javier Millet.
Okay.
Uh, I, I, I assume based on what yousaid, that he's higher up for you,
but maybe not that much higher up.
Um, again, I asked, uh, chat GPTfor a little help here in sort of,
uh, what the scouting report wouldbe and it spit back out to me.

(47:09):
Crypto Ron Paul meets Steve Jobs.
That was pretty Whoa.
Steve Jobs.

Whoa.

Yeah, but like, and I, I, I wanted to punish him a little bit
because I think his winning power wasactually more a function of Argentinians
just being fed up and they were lookingfor the craziest thing possible.
And so they picked thecraziest thing possible.
But like early returns, he's shown himselfto be much more pragmatic than his dead
dog communing, uh, you know, chainsawwielding, uh, Mo would suggest I really

(47:40):
didn't like that weird crypto scam that hewas a part of or got taken for a ride for.
Like, that was a negative signal for me.
And I think we're about to get intothe tough times for him, but I'm
interested enough that he's there at 17.
At 16.
Mr. Erdogan, we've already talkedabout you, Mr. Sultan, uh, so
we don't have to do more there.
And at number 15, the top of this list.
Again, lucky to have him, but we'vegot some kind of tragic flaw here.

(48:01):
This also is about, you know, uh,future projecting Narendra Modi
comes in right here at 15 for me.
Mm. Um, yeah, interest if this were, ifthis were, if this were first term Modi,
he's maybe Untouchables, like he's maybeat the very, very top of this list, but
we're, in a third term, we're getting old.
Have we built somethingbeyond Modi's charisma that
allows the BJP to go forward?

(48:22):
I don't know.
He, he was very ambitiousabout, have, about his reforms.
Not a whole heck of alot have gone through.
Some of them have, like we've, we'veharmonized taxes and we've done some
good things, but like others we'vereally haven't made progress on.
So I think he's, you know, MVP levelplayer, but we're in the twilight of our
career and we haven't quite gone through.
Um, some of the things that wethought that some people that need

(48:43):
to be this high on the list wouldbe, so he comes in at 15 for me.

So if I was to take a pause here and think about this,
I'm very surprised we don't havemuch disagreement at our bottom,
you know, 10, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.
So like in the bottom seven, uh, wedon't have that much disagreement.
Okay?
I didn't have Provo, uh, I didn't havecc, um, um, or Ali, uh, in Ethiopia,

(49:12):
so, you know, but like Zer, Peja,Germany, France, Rhonda, similarly
on my end, I mean, okay, fine.
Luka, Don Slovenia, sorry, Robert Gob.
Tus and Christ Christensen,you don't have.
But not yet.
Yeah.
But there was a lot of, uh,agreement, I think at the bottom.
Yeah.
Uh, I, I actually have a, oh,

and I also, I also just wanted to say, I forgot to say
this, like, 'cause we did say thatapproval ratings mattered here.
Norendra Modi has the highestapproval rating, uh, of all the
different, you know, leaders.
So he's got 77%, uh, melee at 62%.
Albee has a 54% approval rating.
So I, I overindexed him for there as well.
So there's a couple here thatgot boosts for me based on that.

So I actually, now that you've run off these out of
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, I'vegot Modi, Tigan, and Millie.
I have osa, he's coming up.
Mm-hmm.
I don't have, uh, UK New Zealand, Brazil.
Hungary in Israel.
Um hmm.
I mean, no offense to the Anglosphere.

(50:11):
I think, you know, time will tell.
I just wasn't, uh, particularly impressed.
I guess I chose Albaneseinstead of Starr, quite frankly.
Kind of both came at the same time.
So, um, I think Albany's job istougher, quite frankly, but we'll see.
Lula disagree a lot, and thenBibi and Victor, um, I get it.

(50:31):
I just, and especially in Ban's case,I feel like I, I should have had him in
the top 30, so, um, I think you're right.
But on Bibi, you know,you are absolutely right.
Just, he puts up incredible statistics.
He is, uh, an all star.
He is got the max contract, but he is achemistry killer and he's a team cancer.

(50:55):
What I mean by that is that I thinkthat everything that Netanyahu has done
over the last, you know, five years isultimately going to, uh, you know, it's
gonna be something that Israel willbe paying, uh, for a very long time.
So I, I definitely vociferouslydisagree with that, but that's okay.
That's good.
Let's go to the next,uh, uh, next category.
Okay.
So this is where I think ourdisagreements, uh, well, no, no, no.

(51:18):
I think actually you're gonnaagree with a lot of these.
Uh, number 15 for me is raa.
This is a deep take.
Deep take my friend.

Deep take.
Yeah.

Yes.
Leader of Albania.
Okay.
Um, and yes, someone born in Serbia haspicked an Albanian leader as top 15.
Um, that's a head nod to allour Armenian friends who are
gonna be mad at us about Aliev.
Just like, Hey, if I can pickEddie Rama, you know, you guys
can chill with, uh, aliev.

(51:47):
Great navigation of a complicatedregion, uh, has found new sources of
economic prosperity for Albania, Albania,particularly tourism, just like exploding.
It's like, it's like what Portugalwas like five, 10 years ago.
That's Albania today.
Very well done.
Um, and the other thing is that hasgreat relationship with everyone in

(52:07):
the region, including with Serbia,like really well done and has
completed more EU chapters than Serbia.
So closer to integration than, um,a country that's, I mean, you know,
like objectively speaking, just I.
Far more modern economically.
And from an industrial's perspective,Albania started off much worse in 1990 as

(52:28):
the co collapse of Communism than Serbia.
I mean, like, much worse they weren'teven aligned with the Soviet Bloc.
You know, their only allywas like Maoist, China.
Um, so, uh, really welldone, really impressed.
And by the way, this, this categoryfor me is diamonds under pressure.
So I'm picking a lot of, uh, leaderswho have done something with nothing.
So there's ra then Cyril Osa,I have him here, so he's 14

(52:52):
for me and he is 21 for you.
So pretty much, uh, you know,we're in alignment there in line.
Yeah.
13, this is controversial.
All of our liberal listeners willhate me for it, although quite
frankly, you pick Bibi and Orban.
So like, gimme a break, right?

If, if our liberal listeners are gonna hate us for that,
there's, there's worse to come guys.

There's worse to, oh yes, there is, there's
absolutely worse to come.
Uh, naive ell it.

Oh, okay.

Yes.

Great.

Uh, look, PR value alone, like El Salvador,
we're talking about a guy.
We're, we're openly discussingsomebody who was, who's in charge of
El Salvador, and not because of somelike, you know, terrible civil war.
So that's number one.
Second, everyone who's from CentralAmerica and Latin America that I know
and that has been to El Salvador orlived there, basically argues that that

(53:44):
country was absolutely unlivable beforeB And he has solved that with brutality,
absolutely, but also ruthless efficiency.
And then, um, you know, I mean,uh, perfect man for the era.
He, uh, he linked his country.
To Bt C to Bitcoin at 40,000, youknow, doesn't look so stupid anymore.

(54:09):
Uh, he wears futuristic cardillosuits as my dear friend Juan Correra.
Shout out to him 'cause he,uh, he definitely agreed with
this pick, um, would say.
And ultimately, um, I think just,you know, I think there's too
much indexing on what he's doneon Bitcoin, I think not enough
indexing on what he's done on crime.

(54:30):
And if you don't like Trump and soyou don't like the fact that he's so
pro-Trump, just look at it this way.
I mean, he picked the right winner.
Being a leader of a central Americancountry ultimately comes down to being
on the right side of the United Statesof America, because it's the giant in
the, it's the elephant in the room.
So I think he's done very well.
I've got Malay, hold on.

Wait, wait, wait.
I, I wanna, I wanna pauseyou right there, Marco.
'cause I, I, I don't wanna step onthis too much, but we should say that
maybe Bhel is number one on my list.
He is UNT tradable.
He is the top of the,he is the apex for me.
There

go.
Wow.
Wow.
I mean, hey, listen, I don't disagree.
His use of media pr uh, reveals a deepknowledge of where the world is going.
And, uh, yeah, man, I mean, again, ifhe, if he can put El Salvador on the map,

he got rid of crime in El Salvador, period.
Like, like, they're like,who else is doing that?
You think?
You think El Salvador is tradinganyone for bouquet on this list?
No, they're very happy with the guy whogave 'em their country back and allowed
them to walk in the streets again.

Wow.
Yeah.
My, my dear friend Juan, he's the head of,uh, asset allocation at BC Research and
also my co-owner of the Cali Fornicationbasketball team in the JBL Fantasy League.
He picked him number one, two,and I respect one so much so that
we share a basketball franchisein the Dreamland universe that

(55:55):
is the Fantasy Sports League.
So well done.
Alright.
Alright.
Sorry.
Uh, I got Malay number 12.
Uh, I think he's been, uh, amazing.
Um, unbelievable charisma.
He managed to get the Argentinians toagree with tightening your belt belts.
Your point about Argentina was, at thispoint anyways, that's true, but he's also

(56:17):
managed to do it in a correct sequenceby not opening up the capital account
too quickly, which was very important.
Uh, making sure that the reformsfirst take hold and then discussing
about, uh, lessening capital controlssomething that mockery got wrong.
So mockery got the sequencing wrong.
Mm-hmm.
Number 11, Abdullah II of Jordan.
Mm-hmm.

(56:38):
The degree of difficulty, the diffdegree of difficulty for a leading
Jordan right now is absolutely insane.
Um, this is, uh, you know, this islike a basketball player that just
pulls his crappy team into the playoffsas a seven seed all by himself.
Um, and quite frankly, uh, thesecurity of Israel is more tied to

(57:01):
Abdullah II's leadership of Jordan.
To what Benjamin Netanyahuis doing, quite frankly.
So, uh, Israelis should praise him forhis cool and collected demeanor that yes,
it's become rhetorically increasinglyanti-Israeli, but you have to sympathize
for him, as we have talked about before.
So that's my number 11.

Alright, my next, my next list takes me from 14 to seven.
So this is a big one and for me,I thought of this, um, category as
I'm hanging up, but not right away.
Like, I'm gonna listen for a littlebit and then I'm gonna hang up.
Uh, so some of these are rising stars.
Some of these are highfunctioning technocrats.
Some of these are elite,uh, elite lieutenants.
And I think the ones that will bemost controversial are 14 and 13.
'cause the rest are ones that we'vemostly already talked about at 14.

(57:46):
Uh, SHA Kat MiEV of Uzbekistan.
Um.
This is where I'm gonnago, like really deep.
I'm gonna cut really deep here.
But this is a guy who took over for one ofthe most retrograde dictatorships in the
post-Soviet world, um, and has, I mean,he has not made it a democracy, but he
has opened up and liberalized Uzbekistanto a degree that nobody thought possible.

(58:07):
He's been able to keep Uzbekistanout of the clutches of Islamic
fundamentalism and everything else.
He has not gone too far downthe road with, uh, Russia or
with China or the United States.
He has played all these thingsdifferent, uh, very well.
Um, I was in Tash Kent in 2019.
Uh, you know, uh, everybodythere was of course going to
make it seem like they loved him.
But everyone I talked to from Uzbekistan,when they think about MOV before and re

(58:31):
you have now, they're like, he's great.
We love him.
He's competent.
My.
Uber driver to JFK Airport twoweeks ago was from Uzbekistan.
And when I, when I askedhim about Shaka Zi, yeah.
First he was like, I can't believeyou know who that is, and let
me tell you how great he is.
We are so happy to have a competent leaderat the head of the Uzbekistan state.
So that's where he, that's

important.
That's an important empiric.
Yeah.
Yeah.

Um, 13.
This, my bias is getting involvedhere, but she, I'm a really big
fan of Shigeru Ishiba in Japan.

Hmm.

Interesting.
Um, he's, wow.
I have a soft spot for him.
Um, I, I talked to our friend TobiasHarris, not the basketball player,
but uh, the Great Japan analyst, uh,and talked about Ishiba as sort of a
tragic hero, heroic figure who's gonnapursue something and not get there,
but that will make him all the moreof a Japanese hero because of it.
Um, yeah.
I, I just, I like his policiesand I like what he's trying to do.

(59:20):
I'll also say like, he came in ina minority government with really,
really low approval ratings.
But he's getting stuff done and hisapproval ratings are slowly ticking up.
So if he inherits this mess in Japanesepolitics and takes it to a position
where he's in charge and he's pushingback against the United States and
the trade war, and he is trying tofigure out the balance between China
and the United States and what'sgoing on with Taiwan, like a very,

(59:42):
very high degree of difficulty.
And I think he's doing a great job.
Um, and then the rest, the rest ofrounding, rounding up this list,
uh, here is Met Freson at 12.
Oh, okay.
Here is at 11.
We've got, uh, I don't know how topronounce her name actually, but it's
the leader of Estonia, Kaja, Kaja.
I don't know.
Kaja, you know.
I don't know, but shecomes in here as well.
Um, I had your Swiss, uh,Swiss leader at number 10.

(01:00:05):
Uh, again, I went to chat GPTfor this, and they described
her as Switzerland's Popovich.
That sounded pretty good to me.
That was enough to convinceme that she belongs there.
Uh, but I take your point that that'ssort of a boring pick, like, uh, anyway,
but I, I had her there at 10 and thenAlbanese at nine, Kearney at eight, and
Lawrence Wong coming in at number seven.
So all countries that I thinkhave high degrees of difficulty,

(01:00:27):
really, really skilled leadership.
Some of them are technocrats,some of them are rising stars.
Some of them just know how to do things.
But all people that, you know, you'lllisten about trading, but ultimately,
like you're gonna look at what yougot and be like, I'm pretty good.
I don't think I need to make atrade here because this person has
got the situation under control.

Marko Papic (01:00:44):
Yeah.
So Singapore, Canada, and Australia.
7, 8, 9. Interesting.
Switzerland, 10, uh, Estonia 11.
Um, yeah, it was tough for me togive these countries that, uh, that
put them that high because they'rejust such well run countries.
You know, it goes back to that WarrenBuffet quote, I want to invest in
countries that even an idiot could run.
So to what extent does itmatter who's in charge of them?

(01:01:05):
But I think mm-hmm.
Uh, it's fair.
I mean, I have three of them there.
I don't have Estonia and Switzerland,but, um, you know, I, I don't disagree.
Japan is interesting.
Uh, we started doing this a month ago.
And I should have updated my list becausethe way that Japanese trade negotiations
with us have gone is very interestingand suggests to me that you are right.

(01:01:27):
There is something in Ishibathat's really interesting.
I mean, they've really playedhardball to the extent that I
think no other country really has.
Yeah.
And so, and,

Jacob Shapiro (01:01:36):
and his approval ratings were in the toilet a month ago.
He is slowly starting to crawlout of the, out of the basement.

Super respect, all of that.
And I think that you've, uh, youpicked somebody who's had a tough time
and, and their their real potential.
I agree with you, Uzbekistan.
Um, I thought about itactually, uh, shockingly.
But I picked somebody else in the region.
Okay.
Uh, I've, I picked somebody elseand I'll, I'll get to that because
he's very high up on my list.
Alright.
So, so I respect that.

(01:02:03):
Uh, I just didn't think that two centralAsian countries really made sense.
It was like two stands,like, come on guys.
And if you, you know, if you countJose Peja is sort of like part of that
whole post-Soviet space, it would'vebeen a little bit too much and weird.
So I, I, I, I, you know, head tip to you.
I think you picked really well.
Alright, close it out.

(01:02:24):
Let's close it out, my friend.
Um, number 10, Pedro Sanchez, Spain.
I think we're gonna disagree on this.
We talked about

it.
We are, we are chat.
GPT kept on saying, do you wantPedro Sanchez on your list?
And I kept saying, no chat.
GPT get this Spanishincompetent guy off of my list.
I don't want him tell me why he is there.

Well, look, I mean, uh, you haven't heard anything about
separatism in Spain for a while.
Uh, and I think that's important.
Um, I think he's carved out a very boldforeign policy, uh, you know, led on,
uh, Israel, uh, in a very, in a waythat obviously nobody who is pro-Israel
is gonna like, but differentiatedSpanish foreign Pol policy for the
first time since like the eighties.

(01:03:03):
So that was interesting as well.
And then ultimately the economyis extremely successful, uh, is
absolutely crushing the region.
Uh, so he is high on my list now.
Is it because of him, the economy?
No, but he hasn't gotten in the way andthat is important, especially in Europe.
So he's very high on my list justbecause Spain is the best performing
economy effectively in the, your area.

(01:03:24):
Um, and then we get into four names.
I feel like you're not going to agreewith based on our previous discussions.
Um, let's put it this way, uh.
Like, think of us asdifferent coaching systems.
You know, you might be modern, youknow, uh, spread offense where you

(01:03:44):
just want to do layups and threepointers and you believe in analytics.
And I'm an old school guywho wants a post play.

So I'm

gonna go,

I'm, I'm, I'm more like the triangle offense and I
want the guy with the drum andthe corner and the piece pipe.
I wanna do Phil Jackson'sversion of coaching.
That's me, right?

That's you.
Okay.
Well, I'm going with like justold school, like post players.
These guys are not in favor, no oneis going to probably agree with this.
Uh, but if you go to any one ofthese countries, just like your
example with Uzbekistan, you goto any of these countries, you're
gonna find nothing but support.
And yes, maybe that's because peoplewho don't support them are in jail.

(01:04:21):
Maybe.
Maybe, but I would say it genuine.
Some,

some people need to be in jail, you know?

Alright, number nine.
So this is top 10.
Sultan.
Binta Al Sayid.
Oman.
Oman baby.
You love Oman.
Yeah.
Transformation of the country is stunning.
I mean, we're talking a country that, youknow, didn't have basic, basic services
like that, needed to hire like accountantsto set up its sovereign wealth fund.

(01:04:51):
And, um, it's really harder tofind a smaller country that's
doing more for global peace.
It's hosted a number of negotiationsbetween other powers, not because
they're just a nice beach side location,but because they've made an effort to
improve the situation in the Middle East.

(01:05:12):
Then after that, Sheikh Mohammedbin, Al U ae transformed the
country into what it is today.
Incredible, incredible effort.
It used to just be oiland tourism in Dubai.
It's not just that anymore.
It's starting to rival Hong Kongand Singapore as the alternative for
emerging market financial capital flows.

(01:05:32):
Abu Dhabi is absolutelyexploding as a financial capital.
There's advancedmanufacturing in the country.
Do you know that Theymake air airplane parts?
It's part of the supply chain.
Uh, it has AI advances.
It's, um, it's becoming avery, very interesting place.
And you mentioned something about citystates in a couple of, uh, episodes.
Mm-hmm.
You know, like this is,this is interesting.

(01:05:54):
And the application of AI in UAEis going to be very, very dramatic
and I think quite interesting.
So UAE makes my eight spots.
Then this is where all the liberalsthat are listening that are still here.
You know, I mean, uh, for all yourliberals listening, just remember.
Jacob Shapiro picked Orban.
Okay.

(01:06:14):
Yeah.
I'm also

not saying, I, I'm not saying I wanna live
under the thumb of these guys.
We're just talking about in the abstractof who would you trade leaders for.
You know, I genuinely, like, I'm nottrying to live under naive b even
though he is number one on the list.

I genuinely would pick up the phone and trade our leader of
any country for Mohammed bin Salman.
Did t taunt with Iran.
Just said, you know what?
I just really don't care aboutthe Shia Sunni split, bro.
So you can have whatever you wantbecause I care about the socioeconomic
reorientation of the entire country.
We've talked about this, uh, uh,before, uh, you know, he might be number

(01:06:48):
one on my list, but I do think theKhashoggi affair was a huge on goal.
But since then, I mean, if you look atwhere Saudi Arabia was in 2015 on any
number of indicators and where it istoday, it is absolutely night and day.
It was practically defenseless.
It was mirrored in endless wars.
It stuck in a fundamentalist doom loop.

(01:07:09):
The country has beenabsolutely transformed.
And uh, what I like about itis that he has big dreams,
you know, like, like Biggie.
He's got big dreams.
Is he gonna accomplish them?
Yeah, probably not.
But when your North Star is actuallya big dream, you might get 30% of
it and still improve the country.
And, you know what, who hasbig dreams anymore on our list?

(01:07:33):
Tell me who the dreamers are.
What's Benjamin Netanyahu's dreamother than not going to jail, you know?
So Mohammed bin Salmanvery high on my list.

Uh, yeah, Benjamin Netanyahu's dream, by the way.
He, he, uh, you're forgetting icecream gate where he, uh, got held
up on corruption issues because hisoffice was spending over 400, the
equivalent of $400 a month just onspecialty ice cream for his wife.
So he dreams of icecream and bombing Iran.
There you go.

That's awesome.
Well, well done.
And then number six, uh, you know,it's interesting that I took this
leader over Mohammed bin Salman.
You could say that.
Uh.
The degree of difficulty in the delta inSaudi Arabia is greater, but I'm picking
King Mohamed, the sixth of Morocco,plus his Prime Minister, Aziz Hanush.

(01:08:18):
Uh, the socioeconomic transformationof Morocco is al also incredible.
Uh, avoided the Arab Spring, butit's really the integration into the
supply chains that is very important.
And there is, I think, some symmetryof having Morocco six in Spain, 10
because they're increasingly becomingreally, uh, Europe's manufacturing hub.
The integration between thetwo is quite interesting.

(01:08:40):
Mm-hmm.
Um, also, also this is a country that'seffectively doubled its territory.
You know, if you wanna compare KingMuhammad the six to Vladimir Putin,
Vladimir Putin's got nothing onannexation because Morocco has effectively
quietly annexed Western Sahara andabsolutely nobody has said anything.
Now that's been the case for a verylong time, but it's pretty much

(01:09:02):
now over and it's failed complete.
Uh, also great place to visit and,uh, has really navigated a lot of
the problems over the last 25 years.
I think Morocco is where the rest of theGCC is headed, and that's why you should
be very bullish on the Middle East.
So I'm gonna stop here and then, uh,yeah, any reactions, any thoughts?

Uh, we're closer than you think.
Uh, this is why we're cousins.
Uh, on my list.
I like you, uh, the four leaders so farthat you have, that I should have had.
Anwar Ibrahim, Abdu ii, IDIRama, and the Sultan of, uh.
Oman, uh, whatever his name is.
I don't know his name,sorry, Saltan of Oman.
I just remember Salton caboose.
I, I remember joking about himover back in our Strat four days.
But I think all thoseare worthy of inclusion.

(01:09:43):
I'll give you my seven through oneand you'll see that I actually have
taken both MBS and MBZ ahead of you,uh, coming in at three and four.

Whoa.
Wow.
Yeah, I knows.
Oh, I'm shocked.
Surpris, isn't

it?
I'm shocked.
You're shocked.
I know I talk a lot of shit about thegolf here on this podcast, but here I am
with, uh, with those two at the very top.
So rounding out my top seven here.
Um, and then, well, no, I, Ihave like 10, 10 or 12 minutes
maybe we get through the top.
And do we come back and discuss thismore after we've had time to study?
We, I don't know.
You'll tell me.
Okay.
We do.
So number seven, thismight be your number one.
Uh, but this is GeorgiaMaloney's territory for me.

(01:10:14):
She comes in at number seven.
I'm sure you're gonnawanna talk about her.
She's, I think she's beenvery, very effective.
Uh, number six, Xi Jinping.
I'm impressed, Xi I'vealways liked Xi Jinping.
I've always overindexed on his leadership.
I think he's done an incredible jobwith a very, very difficult situation.
You wanna talk aboutdegrees of difficulty?
I mean, he's the Mao DengXiaoping of this era.
He's trying to absolutely transform China.

(01:10:36):
He's gotten a long way there.
He's reforming the PLA.
He's moving supply side reforms.
Like nobody has a higher degree ofdifficulty on this list than Xi Jinping.
And the fact that he's still aliveand still kicking and there's no
opposition and there's no opposition.
Don't listen to the annual spate ofrumors that Xi Jinping is on the way
out, which is happening this week.
I guess we needed something in theslow news cycle after Israel, Iran War.

(01:10:56):
Xi Jinping comes here.
Um.
Number five.
This one I bet is notan, well, I don't know.
Maybe she's on your list.
Maybe she's not.
Uh, Claudia Shane Baum in Mexico, Ithink has been incredibly impressive.
I've described her as sort ofthe Anglo Merkel of the 2020s.
She reminds me of Anglo Merkel.
She's a scientist engineer.
Yes, she's taking over from Alos populism,but she's dealt with Trump masterfully.

(01:11:18):
I think she's doing a greatjob with Mexican politics, her
approval ratings through the roof,like she's putting in good work.
Um, three and four.
I told you I've got MBZ atnumber four MBS at number three.
And my top two.
Number two, I, I wonder if he'll pushback against this, and this is probably
my bias creeping in, but give me Mr.Zelensky in Ukraine at number two,
what he's been able to do for Ukraine.

(01:11:39):
He's gone through some ups and downs.
He's still kicking, Ukraine is still here.
Ukraine is in an incredibleposition because of him.
I think that Ukraine is nothere today in its current form.
If he's not out in the streets with thecameras, like manipulating the media
the way that he did, like, I thinkhe really was an indispensable man
at a, at a really critical time for acountry that was at existential risk.

(01:12:00):
And I give him extra props for that.
Maybe he's a church alien figure.
Maybe as soon as the war's over,he gets put back out to pasture or.
Face back onto TV as a comedian.
I like that he is a comedian.
Like that works for me.
Um, agreed.
Also, you know, a fellow,you know, according to Putin,
a Jewish fascist, so fine.
Like, let the Jew pick aJewish fascist at number two.
And I've already told you thatye boule is my number one.

(01:12:20):
You can't resist it.
I don't wanna live under him.
He's incredibly a liberal.
I bet that 30 years from now, youknow, he'll, he's like, uh, the
metaphor might be de nearest Arian,like good intentions, did a whole
bunch of things, but eventually livedlong enough to be queen of the ashes.
Like he, he has that darkness to him.
He's got the dragon inside of him, butright now he's riding high and nobody

(01:12:41):
has done more with, less than bouquet.
Um, right down to the Bitcoin bet.
So there's my list.

Well, I mean, there's a lot of agreement here.
We've got El Salvador, we've gotUAE, Saudi Arabia, um, Italy, Mexico.
I'm, I'm about to reveal my top five, um,one disagreement I have here with you.
Uh, so Ukraine, I have, uh,actually both Zelensky and Trump
in a special category of their own.

As, as you can tell.
By the way, Mr. Trump not on my list.
I was curious if hewould get on your list.

Uh, he's not on my list either.
Um, you know, I, I think thatPresident Trump has done a lot of very
oppressive things, but is he a productof being the leader of the best?
Like, could he have donewhat he did with El Salvador?
You know, that's the questionthat I think I, I struggle with.
And similarly, uh, Zelensky was anabsolutely terrible leader before the war.

(01:13:32):
Mm-hmm.
Absolutely terrible.
So, you know, like, and even duringthe war, I would say that the first 12
months of Zelensky leadership in thewar from February, 2022 to, let's say
September, 2023, admirable, amazing.
Uh, I think he's made several incrediblyterrifyingly terrible military

(01:13:54):
strategic decisions, you know, forthe past, like two years straight.
And so like, you are basicallygiving him the number two spot
for like 18 months of his rule.
I am, and it is, and listen, incredible.
18 months of his rule, but like that's,you know, that's like, I, I don't know
what to do with him because of that.

(01:14:15):
Um, it's, it's

kinda, it's kinda like, it's, it's kinda like Brandon Roy, like
when he was on the floor, he was one ofthe best, but he doesn't have any knees.
He has no cartilage in his knees,so he can't play basketball.

You know, a better, a better example would be somebody
who catches fire in the playoffs andthen gets a huge contract afterwards.
You know, you're like, oh my God, lookat what they did in these two series.
Yeah.
But maybe that's becausethey weren't guarding him.
Uh, I just, that's whyhe's not on my list.
But I, you know, respect that 18months of dogged perseverance.

(01:14:44):
Um, China, big disagreementwith you there.

Not on your list.
No,

no.
Xi bing is not on my list.
That's a

huge disagreement.
Wow.
Well,

and here's why.
You know, I loved what you saidabout Uzbekistan's president.
Remind me of the name again.

Shav Kat, me Zev.
I only had to practice that about30 times before we hit record.

And I apologize for not remembering the name.
I did honestly take a look atUzbekistan as one of my potentials.
Didn't choose it, but whatyou said was interesting.
You talked to some random Uzbekistanitaxi driver and they loved him.
You know, and, and I bet you ifyou poll people into Uzbekistan,
legitimately they would agree.
I don't think that's the case with China.

(01:15:24):
And here's why.
He didn't take people outta poverty.
Preceding leaders did.
By 2012, China was what it is today.
He unnecessarily, unnecessarilyprovoked the sleeping giant, which
is the United States of America.
That was not necessary in 2020.
In 2012, you could have waiteduntil 20 20, 20 25, 20 30.

(01:15:47):
When you have far more abilityto kind of challenge the us, I
think that was a huge on goal.
Jacob, there was no need for Chinato start talking about nine dash
lines or South China Sea in 2012.
It just, why?
Why wake up the United States of Americaitching to pivot out of the Middle East?
Why alert them to the fact that yes,you have designs on regional hegemony

(01:16:09):
and then finally, I cannot believe youhave him this high because of how he has
crushed private sector dynamism in China.
And I don't wanna sound like some aire,you know, like pro business guy, you
know, like who just cares about that?
But that's a huge, that'ssomething that China genuinely was
crushing and was getting there.
And some of his structural reforms.

(01:16:30):
I mean, certainly he has put the weightof the government behind certain sectors.
God bless you.
But anybody can do that.
My concern is that there's been a littlebit too much opposition to private
sector entrepreneurship and innovation.

Um, yeah, the, the, I'll, I'll push back in this way.
I think the, the thing that wereally disagree on is that I think
that he is popular to the averagerank and file Chinese person.
And I think that, not becausehe made them prosperous, but
because he went after corruption.
I think there was a huge divide whereparts of China got incredibly rich.
We agree.
And he came, he came in andsaid, bogie la the party's over.
And you guys in Shanghai drivingaround the Lamborghinis, while

(01:17:05):
people are making less than $5 a dayin the interior, the party's over.
Like we are go and military guys whoyou're siphoning off all this money.
Local governments who are doing allthese things to siphon off money
for that's over, the party is over.
We're going back to Moral Rectitudeand Xi Jing principles and Little
Red Books and everything else.
Like, and I think that he'sgotten popular for that.
The others, I agree with you.
I mean, I would quibble with, Idon't think his problem was 2012.

(01:17:26):
His problem was the wolfwarrior diplomacy with 2017.
And to his credit, I. Has fixed it.
He got rid of the Wolf Warriorwarriors, he's like taken it back.
Now, that was a mistake, butlike he showed the ability to
survive the mistake and twist it.
Private sector Diamond Dyna is sure,like, but I think he's done as good
a job as he possibly can in China,and I think he is the one that said,
Hey, get ready for L-shaped growth.
We are gonna have to go through thisat some point we're we're gonna let

(01:17:50):
the real estate bubble collapse.
I know, but even there, he'sgonna have to manage it.
Like, you know,

but even there, Jacob, like we, he's making the same
mistake that Angela Merkel, ObamaTea Party, everyone in the West made.
So I don't wanna like, like be toonegative on this, but there is a
solution to a real estate crisis.
Richard Coup has told us what thatis and it's stimulating GDP growth.
Now I, again, he's falling intothe same mistake everyone else did.

(01:18:18):
But all he needs to do is look at thewest and how long the de-leveraging
was prolonged because the US governmentand the European governments did not
step in with fiscal support to knowthat he is making the same mistake.
So on that front, I think the fact that hehas been so astir is in an incorrect move.
But

yeah, but I, I think that's 'cause it's the right
move for the Chinese context.
He warned them in 2019, do not do this.
This is a red line.
I am not going to bail you out.
And then they did it.
And so he had to follow throughand say, look, we are just not
gonna backstop you forever.
We need to be more productive.
Like we need to be moreefficient with our capital.
He's not gonna

Right, but he's not going to be more productive if he's
messing with also the private marketsand private businesses and private

entrepreneurs.
That's, that's, that's true.
I have, so it's, I have nothingto, I can't argue with you

there, but it's, it's, look, it's not a big deal.
Uh, he is on my list of like the peopleI left out along with, uh, some others
that we can talk about next time.
I'm gonna finish off my list.
Uh, this has gone on long enough.
The next one, first of all,if you have any reactions to
our list, send them to us.
Yes.
Um, you can use, uh, maritzgeopolitical alpha.com or Jacob.

(01:19:27):
What's

jacob@jacobshapiro.com.
I'll put them both in the intro, but yes.

Okay.
So let's, uh, let's getsome, uh, commentary.
That's, that's cool.
Uh, we're also, what I'm gonnado with Jacob is I'm gonna use a
sophisticated mathematical formulato blend our lists together.

Oh, cool.

You know?
Great.
So we'll know who's number one.

Great.

Alright, I'm gonna round off the top.
Um, I think you're gonna love my top firstof all, number five, Kasim Jomar to baby.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I didn't choose Uzbekistan.
I didn't choose Uzbekistan.
Why?
Uh, first of all, navigatinggeopolitics very successfully.
The reason Uzbekistan can ride, uh,quietly and not pick sides is because

(01:20:08):
nobody truly cares about Uzbekistan.
Like, let's be very clear.
Neither do including Russians.
They're like, ah, whatever.
Like, sure.
Yeah.
You know, sorry for destroying yourenvironment with cotton production.
Moving on.
Kazakhstan.
The Russians care aboutKazakhstan, they care about
Kazakhstan, and so do the Chinese.
And yet what the Q has managedto do is perhaps the greatest

(01:20:31):
balancing act in all of the world.
Yes, I'm gonna go it that far.
He managed to call in Russianpeacekeepers when there was, uh,
to call an uprising against him.
Mm-hmm.
But since then, since then, he hasmanaged to avoid picking sides in
Ukraine, Russia, which is extraordinary.
He has left the ruling party completelypivoted away from Nazarbayev, positioned

(01:20:53):
himself as a political economic reformer.
Uh, he's, uh, refused to recognize Russianpuppet states in Ukraine, refused to
accept the, uh, uh, all sorts of domesticpolitical problems in Russia that have
sort of moved over to, uh, to Kazakhstan.
And, uh, just managed to getrid of domestic political.

(01:21:16):
Problems that have been left overfrom thus survive, have managed to
balance both China and Russia as well.
So really impressive work therein Kazakhstan that nobody's
probably paying attention to.
I would definitely trade a leaderof many countries for to kaev.
Number four.
Hasn't made your list,which is surprising.
This is the best economicperformance in Europe.

(01:21:38):
I said Spain.
There is another countrythat's doing even better.
The largest budget deficitconsolidation in human history.
We're talking about KO's, midis of Greece,also geopolitically, you know, quiet.
Hasn't really pushed against Turkey.
Quietly become the destination forIsraeli entrepreneurs and capital

(01:21:58):
has moved into Greece a lot.
And, um, really interesting,interesting, uh, performance.
I think that, um.
Absolutely would, uh, trade,uh, many leaders for mitsotakis.
Um, also third term, uh, which you know,is very impressive in a place like Greece.
I have, uh, Modi third.

(01:22:20):
I regret it.
I regret it though.
I think you are you.
No, no.
I mean, just, you made such acompelling case, uh, for why, you
know, he shouldn't be number three.
He is for you, number 15.
I think that's, that's correct.
You know, I, I overstated him.
And then finally we get to ourtop two choices who will be ranked

(01:22:40):
number one and two on our lists.
So I nailed it mainly becauseyou also agree yours, uh, six and
four, and it's very interesting.
The top two leaders in the world forJacob Shapiro and Marco Papich are women.
Number two, Claudia ShineBone absolutely crush you.

(01:23:00):
I'm so happy

she's number two for you.
I'm so impressed with her.

Yeah, absolutely.
And number one, the greatestleader in the world.
And she will be confirmed.
No, no, no.
I'm sorry.
But if she will be confirmed onceI do the math, it will work out.
'cause she is number six for you.
She's number one for me.
Maybe Shaba actually goes higher.
Four and two.
Oh, this is gonna be interesting.
No,

yeah, it will be.
Yeah.
Yeah.

Claudia Sheba will be crown number one.
She's number two for me.
For me number one, andwill be crown number two.
Overall is I. Just an absolute legend.
Georgia Maloney crushed it just, I mean,mic drop in every way, shape or form from
her facial expressions when she's dealingwith chauvinistic, overburdening annoying

(01:23:48):
men down to the economic performance ofItaly, down to way that she has completely
dampened populism in the country.
She's given the anti-establishmentpopulous what they wanted, which
is anti-immigration policies,and then she has pursued a
pretty solid economic agenda.
Nobody talks about the fact that Italystill has huge debt burden because
the deficit has absolutely shrunk.

(01:24:09):
Well done.
George Maloney, you are number one onthe list, but I can just see the data
right now and it looks like Mexico'spresident, Claudia Scheinbaum is crowned
the best leader in the world withMaloney second, so that's one in two.
Um.
Two leaders, um, two femaleleaders in uh, G 20 countries.

(01:24:31):
So that's very interesting.
I will complete the mathematical,uh, consolidation of our two lists.
And in the next episode, what we'regonna do, Jacob, is we're going to,
uh, basically go from one to about 50.
I think we got about 50 leadershere because, you know, you had some
that I didn't have and vice versa.
Mm-hmm.
Uh, and then we're gonna talk aboutthose that we've left out, why we

(01:24:51):
left them out, namely Donald Trump.
We're gonna get a lot ofhate mail, which is great.
Let's go, let's go.
Uh, and then the secondthing also, we also,

we, we left out Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong Un, uh, Gabriel Boruch
was also on my honorable mentionlist, but you'll still get into it.

Oh yeah, that's fair.
We, we, we'll, we'll get into all of that.
Um, and also, yeah, I mean, we'regonna, we're gonna ask ourselves
would we really trade these people?
But I gotta say Shiba and, uh, Maloney.
Yeah.
I mean, I think I would trade theleaders of our country for those.

I, I would be happy to live under the two of them.
That's fine with me.

Alright, on, on that note, uh, we're gonna
end our, uh, top trade list.
Part one, part two is coming, uh, soon,hopefully early next week when we can
kind of digest some of the feedbackand go into, uh, the definitive list.
That is the mind belt of both of us.

This was incredible, cousin.
Thank you so much.

Thank you.
No, I appreciate all the hard work.

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