A major new Ipsos poll drops — and the implications for Holyrood 2026 are huge. The SNP hold a stable lead. Labour has fallen sharply. Reform UK has surged into second place in the constituency vote, fuelled by the rise of immigration as a top concern for Scottish voters.
• Why Reform UK is gaining Scottish voters from both Labour and the Conservatives
• How immigration became a top-three issue in Scottish politics
• Why the SNP vote remains “sticky”
• Labour’s worsening poll numbers after Keir Starmer’s difficult months
• The Greens’ highly effective regional-vote strategy
• Whether Reform has reached its ceiling in Scotland
• What demographic groups are driving Reform’s rise
We also speak to Mark McGeoghegan of Ipsos, who analyses the polling in depth — approval ratings, demographic breakdowns, voting-intention shifts, and how Scottish voters feel about taxation and public spending.
And later: an interview with Michael Matheson, the outgoing SNP MSP, and former Transport Secretary. Will the A9 ever be fully dualled? Has the Scottish Government failed on delivery? Matheson responds.
Finally, we react to your messages about Malcolm Offord’s defection to Reform UK, including whether he boosts their credibility, fundraising and appeal — or whether he’s tied to rhetoric that will hurt the party in Scotland.
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