CFB’s Biggest Lies + Who Is The Face Of Sports Media?

Josh Pate’s College Football Show Ep 643 features Josh Pate discussing potential chaos scenarios this season. Could the Big Ten become the SEC in a sense of no teams like Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan, or Penn State emerging as elite? Could the league get a team left out like Alabama last season? What are the biggest lies we hear in College Football? Tonight we expose them…again. Bold prediction season has returned with you calling your shot. Which teams will be better and which teams will be worse this year than they were in 2024? Tonight we take a look at Tennessee, USC, Florida State and Kansas State. Josh also takes a look at who the face of sports media is in 2025. All that plus the truth about Oklahoma's Brent Venables and whether Arch Manning is good enough to lead Texas to being a top team in 2025. Be sure to let us know what you think, SUBSCRIBE to the channel, and CLICK THE BELL for notifications as we bring you multiple live shows per week!

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:13):
It's getting to be that time. We don't ever want
to lie. But I mean, if you're gonna lie about
college football, if you're gonna present mistruths out there, you
gotta get that stuff out of the way in the
spring because the closer you get to the regular season,
the more people are paying attention and the closer the
games are to outing you. So we got to tell
the truth tonight, and that's what this show is going
to be about. I got a lot of truth to

(00:34):
tell about this sport. It is Tuesday, July first, the
Year of Our Lord, twenty twenty five, brought to you
by Academy Sports and Outdoors. We're high top and jam
packed a lovely downtown Nashville, Tennessee. Yeah, it occurs to
me sometimes we need to remind people what we're about,
and tonight I have to do that. In the way
of telling you what the biggest lies are in this sport.

(00:55):
I'm gonna tell you about some biggest questions that we have.
I'm gonna tell you about some big truth. I've got
some big chaos. It's a really big show. It's a
really big show. We wouldn't do it if it wasn't
and We're jam packed as usual. They are watching us
in Fort Wayne, Indiana, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, Denver, Colorado, Midland, Texas.
Thank you guys so much. We're doing the show on Tuesday.

(01:16):
We won't have one on Thursday. Our next show will
be Sunday. Got the grounds keeping, got the house keeping
out of the way, and it's time to go. That's
a very very compacted intro. So don't ever, don't ever
call me long winded. You should. We were working on it.
We're working on shortening those intros. Okay. I had a

(01:36):
question that I wanted to lead the show with because
sometimes I don't know where we should fit these sorts
of things in. But this is July. We're in July.
By the way, this is a really good time to
put a question like this in. So the way it
works is we've done this show for a while now,
so there may be segments that we did, oh two
years ago, and I think to myself, well, Jesse, if

(02:00):
we're putting a show together, like, should we really do
that segment again because we've already done it. Well, what
you got to remember is what Nico says here. So
Nico hit me up. He said, as a part of
my Pate State pledge. We should all take it. He said,
I got some new friends listening to the show. Can
you go back through some of your biggest lies so
the newbies can get some quality education. Now he's not

(02:22):
talking about lies I've told we all know I've never
done that. But there are big lies. I've got several
of them written right here. There are lies that people
tell about college football. And if you're new, this is
Peate State. This is a campus where we try and educate.
We don't go as far as to indoctrinate, but we
go right up to the line of education, to the
point of indoctrination. But we want to indoctrinate you with

(02:43):
the truth. So there are big lies that people tell
about college football. And here's what you can't fall victim to.
You can't fall victim to just because someone says something,
or a group of people says something over and over
and over again, that you accept it. And I'm going
to give you the first one that we hammer on
all the time, and so I'm gonna skip through this

(03:03):
one pretty quick. You are what your record says you
are is a huge lie in college football, and it's
close personal cousin. A win is a win. I'm gonna pause.
I know we have a lot of new people watching
and listening to the show, and you may have thought
to yourself, well, hold on, but a win is a win.
But you are what your record says you are. It's okay,

(03:24):
it's okay. It's not the middle of the season. This
is the time to get the erroneous thinking in logic
out of the room. I've had to do it before.
There's stuff I used to believe about college football that
I don't believe anymore. Some of them are on this list.
You're not always what your record says you are. A
lot of you love the NFL. You watch the Sunday game.
You are what your record says you are in the NFL.

(03:45):
A win is a win in the NFL. Not so ironically.
A lot of these sayings were born in professional sports,
and then a bunch of people who used to solely
cover pro sports started to cover college football when college
football got bigger, and they took the pro sports ideologies
to the college game. And it doesn't always apply, and
this is one of them. So we want to do

(04:06):
a little research here. Do we want to do some
field research? Let's just say pet State is playing Texas
in Georgia to start the season. I lose both of
the games by a field goal, thirty to twenty seven,
thirty one to twenty eight. I lost both games by
a field goal. I am in two. I got two losses.
I'm o into You go play East Texas State and

(04:29):
Portland State and you win both of those games by
a field goal. Who is the better team, who should
be ranked higher, whose performance to date has been more impressive?
And you either fit into one of two camps. You
either look and say, well two and O is always
better than oh and two. You either look and say,

(04:51):
well two wins is always better than two losses, or
you understand the relativity that has to enter the equation
when you're talking about college football because of the disparity
and strength of schedule and even strength of opponent. Because again,
we do this really crazy thing in the college football
world where we pretend over one hundred teams are playing

(05:11):
the same sport, whereas you know, in the NFL it's
thirty two. So it's a lot easier to talk like
that than it is in college football. So no, you're
not always what your record says you are. That's a lie.
You could be, but not always. And ten and two
is not always equal to every other ten and two
out there. All right, Next up, next, big lie. I'm
glad you asked me about this. Recruiting rankings don't matter. Well,

(05:34):
that's a lie. Recruiting rankings very much matter. Now, you
will notice that you may have said this before. You
certainly have heard other people say this before. Normally, this
is not when your team lands a five star. Normally,
this is not when your team lands a top five class. Normally,
it's when your rival down the road just landed a

(05:55):
five star, or your rival down the road landed a
top ten, top five class, and you're you're going into
defense mode and you hope, which is okay. You hope
that that kid is a bust. So it's a little twisted,
but it's okay. It's the wild West of fandom out here.
Or you hope that maybe they do like Texas A
and M a couple of years ago, where they have

(06:15):
this highly rated class but it all falls apart. Yeah,
that could happen, but more than likely it's not going
to happen. So the best recruiting averages the last four
years Alabama, Georgia, Texas, Ohio State, Oregon, LSU, Oklahoma, Miami,

(06:35):
Notre Dame, Texas A and m What do you notice there?
You notice a ton of teams that not just in
a given year, but annually, are competing for the national championship.
You will also be quick to point out probably, but Josh,
what about Miami. You're right, that's an exception. Well, Texas
A and m has it. You're right, that's an exception. Also,

(06:56):
you'll notice you'll notice you had to go a little
further down the list. There were no fraudulent teams at
the top of the list, were they? And what about
Alabama last year? Josh, Yes, yes, the first team out
of the playoff, replacing the greatest head coach of all time. Yes,
there's your exception to the rule. So recruiting rankings do matter.

(07:16):
Verbal commitments also matter. It's July right now, and so
there's been a lot of verbal commits. And you'll also
notice anytime there's a verbal commit someone says, oh, that
doesn't mean anything. Check back in December, and the insinuation
there is like the verbal commit means nothing. No, the
verbal commit doesn't mean everything. Because it is true that
some kids will decommit, but it's also true that the

(07:37):
vast majority of them won't. So anyone that tries to
discredit the verbal commitment or are they especially try and
discredit just the overall rankings industry, they are living on exceptions,
not the rule. Next up, I think this one came
from the NFL ranks as well. If you got two
quarterbacks you don't have any that's a lie. By case,

(08:00):
that's a lie. So as a as a catch all
belief system, it's a lie. Now, it could be that
you're a team that has nothing at the quarterback position,
and the reason that there's still a QB battle going on,
the reason there's still two guys splitting reps third week
Indo Fall Camp is because neither one of them have

(08:22):
taken the job. That could happen. That could happen. Here's
what else could happen. You could have two a tongue
of Iloa and Jalen Hurts on the same team. That
could happen. You could have what Ohio State had in
twenty fourteen where they end up winning a national title
with their third stringer. That could happen. You could have
Graham Mertz starting for you and he goes down and

(08:44):
DJ Lagway comes in and saves your season. That could happen.
Point being, sometimes there is quarterback competition because you got none.
And that's where that age old adage came from. You've
got two quarterbacks, you ain't got any. But you could
also have two guys that would be starting virtually anywhere else,
and it just so happens that some head coach out

(09:06):
there has convinced both of them to play for him,
and they're just battling it out. And usually you know
that because usually you're getting feedback from camp and people
are like, I remember I brought Tua up because I
remember them saying that about Tua Tongue of Iloa when
he was a true freshman. Jalen Hurts is the entrench
starter at Alabama, and all people could talk about the
backup dude whose name we can't pronounce. There was a

(09:28):
guy on a message board that worried whether the language
barrier was gonna hurt too a you know, because he's
a Hawaiian, How's he going to speak English? Right? That
actually happened, So that's not always the case, And certainly
when someone just says it blanketly that's a lie. Another lie,
this is where it gets a little more controversial because
some of you will disagree with me on this. But

(09:49):
another lie is the bigger the playoff, the more the opportunity.
That's a lie. The bigger the playoff, the more opportunity
you have to make the playoffs. That's true, of course,
that's true. But by that logic we should expand it
to one hundred and thirty six. Therefore everybody gets the
opportunity to make the playoff. No, when they say there's

(10:10):
more opportunity, the bigger the playoff is, they mean there's
more opportunities to potentially win a national championship. And I
know why people say that because on the surface, you
think to yourself, if we used to only have four in,
that meant only four teams could win the national title.
But if we put twelve in or fourteen or sixteen,

(10:32):
that means twelve teams or fourteen teams or sixteen teams
have a chance to win a national championship. But they don't.
They don't. Mathematically, they all do. Just like when that
media right landed in South Carolina the other day, Hey man,
someone woke up that morning with a small non zero

(10:53):
chance that that was going to happen in their backyard. Realistically,
what were the odds of that happening? So in college
football terms, yeah, SMU mathematically could have won the national title.
Last year, a Boise State mathematically could have won the
national title. It is true that, mathematically speaking, there was
a non zero chance of them winning it. In reality,

(11:16):
there was no chance of them winning it. The reality
is the best shot one of those cinderellas ever had
was the four team field. As crazy as that sounds
to you, and I'm gonna give you evidence. We are
what two years removed, a three years removed now from
TCU playing for a literal national championship. You realize that, well, Josh,

(11:38):
they didn't win it. Oh I know, I know they
got splattered against Georgia in the national title game. But
they played for a national championship. And do you know
why they played for a national championship? Because they existed
in a year where your Ohio State's or your Alabama's
or whatnot, they could lose like one game at the
end of the year. And if they lose at the

(12:00):
long time and the field structured the right way, they're out.
They're out. Of the playoff. I mean Georgia famously a
few years ago is coming off back to back titles.
They go to their conference title game and lose and
they're out of the playoff. That's the best shot that
the Cinderella ever had. That's the biggest opportunity they ever had.

(12:20):
Cincinnati made the playoff. But the better way to look
at that is Cincinnati made the Final Four in the
fourteen model, TCU made it to the National Championship Game
in the four team model. The trade off here is
many many more Cincinnatis and TCUs and teams of that
caliber will make the playoff. Now none of them will

(12:41):
ever go deep in the playoff, go to the National
Championship game. And the reason is because of what Ohio
State did last year. Any former life Ohio State is out.
They lose to Michigan, they're out. But all the playoff
does is give second chances or third chances to the
teams with the rosters actually capable of making it that
deep in the postseason once they have access. And so

(13:03):
it's this big trade off that we did. It's kind
of a slide of hand trick of hey, you want
to expand the playoff, Yes, so you guys have more opportunity,
and enough people said yeah, yeah, let's do it, and
then some people still haven't realized this, although as you
get deeper and deeper into this area you will. It
comes at the expense of any Cinderella ever having an
opportunity to make any kind of run to a championship game.

(13:26):
I never cared about that much, but a lot of
people do. So that's a lie on a final lie
that I wanted to hit tonight. This is not an
exhaustive list. By the way, everything done in the name
of money has to be done. That is a lie.
You see it all over the place. We just talked
about playoff expansion. Why you guys expanded the playoff Well,

(13:47):
I mean, think about the millions and billions more dollars
that we could make. Well, that doesn't equal you have
to do it. But that's not where it stops. Let
me talk about something that really hits you close to home.
When's the last time that you renewed your season tickets
and it was cheaper than it was the year before.
When is the last time you renewed that space that

(14:10):
you tailgates some of you have to pay a fee
for that when's the last time that the price stayed
static or got lower concessions? Ditto, why does that have
to go up? What doesn't have to go up is
the answer. It goes up because in some cases you
have irresponsible spending. In other cases, you've got people in

(14:32):
the administrative state that have figured out how to make
a living off of raising fees anywhere that they possibly
can and then pocketing enough of it to justify their existence.
And so in college football or whether it's over on
the media ecosystem side of college football, you sit through
a four four minute, fifteen second commercial break in between quarters. Well,

(14:54):
it doesn't have to be that long, it doesn't have
to be, but it's gonna be because in the name
of money, we have to do that. You go to
your stadium and there's signage and branding all over the place. Oh,
it doesn't have to look like that, but it's gonna
look like that. Why because there's more money to be made.
Sometimes it's necessary, other times it's not, other times it's not.

(15:17):
Dare I go as far as to use the word,
I'm not gonna say greed, No, no, no, no, no. There
are no greedy people in the sport. Absolutely not. They're
watching us at Academy Sports and Outdoors. They're not greedy.
They're not greedy. They want you to come, they want
you to come and visit them, but they're not gonna
beg because I'm gonna beg for them. Please go to

(15:39):
Academy Sports and Outdoors. Please do that. Friends, Look around us.
We got July fourth coming up. Can you imagine the
sunburn if you don't have one of those Academy tents.
I've got it on good authority. The other tents don't
even block sun It's unofficial. We haven't confirmed that, but
I heard possibly they don't. Academy tents do. And you

(16:00):
need grilling equipment, yes you do, Academy's got it. You
may think to yourself, I thought that was a sporting
goods store, Well it's not nineteen fifty seven in the
town square. Yes they got sporting goods, but they got
so much more than that. You need some footwear, you
need fishing gear. Of course, you can get your traditional
sporting goods there as well. You can go get big
lead chew there, anything and everything. The other day, you know,

(16:23):
I made a joke on air. I said about the
only thing you can't get there is medical supplies. Someone
went to an academy and took a picture of a
first aid kit they bought there, so I really don't
know what it is. They don't offer their academy dot
com if you can't get there in person. Let's roll on.
Got several more things to talk about on the show
here tonight. It's the time of year where rankings are

(16:45):
being released, Media days are around the corner. A lot
of people are going to be glass half full, and
that's okay. I like to have a smile on my
face this time of year too. But one of the
themes on the show lately has been I don't know
if there's really a team to beat this year. There's
just a lot of teams the top. And because there's
no team to beat, I got to justify that by
saying there are help the amounts of questions with every

(17:08):
one of these teams. Like when I said that the
other night, people were asking, really, what's the big weakness
for Texas, the big weakness for Georgia. I didn't say
they're weaknesses. They could be weaknesses right now. They just
qualify as questions. So I wanted to do some of
these teams tonight, because we can run down the list.
If you're just looking at the odds to win at all,
Georgia is gonna be way up there, all right. So

(17:28):
what are the biggest questions about Georgia. Well, being able
to run the ball effectively, that's definitely going to be
one of them. A line play both sides of the ball.
I would look there as well. It was very uncharacteristic
of them last year. There were one hundred and second
in rush yards per game. Crazy. I don't think they're
going to be that bad again this year, but you know,

(17:49):
think about how much they have to improve to get
back to the former version of themselves. They got to
replace four offensive linemen. If you were that poor last year,
I don't think it's the worst thing in the world
to have new bodies there. That makes it a question though.
And then over on the defensive side, this is something
that if you're a hardcore Georgia fan, then you like
have your Too Deep memorized. You go back in time

(18:12):
a few years you had a Too Deep littered with
guys that were going to go on and play Sunday ball,
or at least had the potential to. And Christian Miller's
back there this year. Outside of that, Elo Medozi is
a guy they went and got from Army that they
think will be a really good player, and I agree
with them, he'll be a really good player. But Xavier McLeod,

(18:32):
like Jordan Hall, these are not bad players. Please don't
misunderstand me. There's a difference in really solid player versus
the kind of player that Georgia used to have all
over the place up front on the defensive line. Now,
I know they're gonna clip this and I know they're
gonna play it in the building, and they should because

(18:52):
it is possible that that coaching staff, one of the
very best in the country, could end up getting a
whole lot more out of one or multiples of those guys.
Then you think possible. That's why it's a question. It's
not a weakness. Look at Ohio State, I'd say the
same thing about their defensive line. You had four defensive
linemen last year. Not only that are gone, but they
were also integral parts of your leadership. So you got

(19:14):
to replace the talent and production, and you got to
replace the leadership. They've got former Blue Chippers to backfill.
But here's what always happens in college football. So when
you lose a bunch of guys from one unit, not
only do you have to pay attention to the fact that, Okay,
well you're backfilling there with guys that were big names
in recruiting but are unproven the names behind them, Okay,

(19:39):
you're too deep becomes that's your starting line, and then
your second layer, which is going to have to come
into play. How effective can they be? Do you have
championship caliber depth there? And also the coordinators, Chip Kelly
and Jim Knowles may have been the best OCDC combo
in the country last year, and you are elevating Brian

(20:01):
Hartline to offensive coordinator. You're bringing in Matt Patricia a
defensive coordinator. These are first timers at the college level
having the jobs they're gonna have this year. Not saying
it's a weakness, I'm saying it's a question. That's all
it can be. In July is a question at Old
Miss Man. I'm high on Austin Simmons. Technically he hasn't

(20:22):
proven anything, but I'm high on Austin Simmons. But I'm
telling you, the biggest question about this team to me
is defensive regression, it's gonna happen. I mean, Old Miss
last year they were second defensively in points per game allowed,
They were second defensively in rush yards allowed per game.
They were first in the country in sacks. They will

(20:43):
fall off. I just am questioning how much they're gonna
fall off, because if Golding still has that team playing
like top fifteen defense, they could win the league if
Austin Simmons is what I think he's gonna be. But
that's really difficult to do, really really difficult to do
actually year and a year, given the volatility of the
approach they use just bringing in portal guys. I don't

(21:05):
think this portal class they just brought in has the
pop necessarily that the previous one did. So you're pairing
all of that with a new quarterback. There's just a
lot that has to fall into place. They've still got
a workable schedule, but a lot of that stuff's got
to fall into place. So to me, it's nice that
it's not front loaded. They get Georgia State to start,

(21:25):
they go to Kentucky week two, Arkansas week three, not
easy opponents, but like they're not going to Georgia in
week one or two, they're not playing LSU week one
or two. And lastly for tonight, what about Notre Dame.
Five minutes ago Notre Dame played for a national championship.
Still crazy to say, all right, So the quarterback position

(21:47):
in defensive line, those are two of the main areas
that I question CJ. Carr. I have said before, I'll
say again, I think his upside gives them more potential
in the passing game than at any point during Marcus
Freeman's tenure there. I think the personnel they have out wide,
if CJ. Carr is the real deal, could again they
could fulfill that prophecy of having the best passing game

(22:08):
they've had since he's been there. You know they'll be
able to run the ball. I got very little questioned
about that, But it's the promise versus the production that's
kind of what makes it a question. CJ. Carr has
played in one game, so there's no proven production there,
But yet there's a reason why he is there, if
that makes any sense. So the same thing over on defense,

(22:30):
specifically on the defensive line, Riley Mills and Howard Cross open.
Like those guys being gone, you kind of come to
know that you can trust Notre Dame to have quality backfills.
It's just what caliber do they backfill out? Like, do
they come in and grab the rope and pull every
bit as hard as the frontline guys did last year?

(22:52):
Is there a ten percent drop off? Are they vulnerable
in like one specific area more so than last year's team.
That's just normal football. That's college football, Like, that's what
it is. So those aren't weaknesses, they're just questions. Right now.
Let's move it along. Let's move it along. He told
you we're going to tell the truth tonight, and in

(23:12):
the interest of truth, it's a very honest show. I
guess what's the truth about Brent Venables. We've been doing
the Truth Tellers series lately, and I think the truth
about Brent Venables at Oklahoma is twenty twenty five is
as important for him as twenty twenty five will be
for any head coach a major college football. He went

(23:33):
from six and seven to ten and three back to
six and seven last year. Ah Man, everyone was so
ready for them to go from ten to three to
jumping into the playoff conversation Jackson Arnold like it was
supposed to be his era. It just wasn't. It was
dead on arrival. I'm not putting it all on Jackson Arnold,
Like there was a lot wrong with the offense last year.

(23:55):
So he goes and he hires Ben Rbuckle as is
offensive coordinator from Washington State. It's got to work. It's
got to work. You can't whiff twice on that hire,
and it's got to work. Now. I think it will work,
but I've got to be right there. It's got to work.
One of the things you always want to look at

(24:17):
is how how does a place look once a guy leaves?
So how did Clemson look once Brent Venable leaves? This
is why I got no doubts about the guy's football mind,
and anyone who doubts that, I think probably there's a
different discussion to have. That Clemson identity changed a little
bit when Venables left, in fact a good bit. And conversely,
you look at Oklahoma defensively, they went from one hundred

(24:40):
and twenty second to seventy ninth to nineteenth, So that's
taken over for Lincoln Riley. There was no defensive identity
to speak of there when Venables walked in, and so
he immediately got to work on the side of the
ball he specializes in. It's just don't really mean anything
if you don't and have the quarterback play and you

(25:01):
don't have the OC worked out on the other side.
But I do think he's at the best place he
can possibly be. Like, if you're a head coach that's
a first time head coach, If you're a first time
head coach, if you're in desperation mode, you can at
least rest assured that at Oklahoma you'll have everything you need.
You'll have good players, you'll have good administrative support facilities,

(25:22):
like everything, the support, everything you need there to win
is there. You've got to win. I think it's completely fair.
This is not his first year. No one's saying you
got to come in and win immediately. There's a reason
why they wanted him. He reflects the values and principles
of Oklahoma. I think his sort of identity and belief
system reflects that of Oklahoma. The fan base wanted him.

(25:46):
There's a reason because they see a lot of themselves
in him. But that's all assuming you're a winner. That's
all assuming you know how to win. And it's totally
fair to give the coach everything on the plate that
he's gonna need and by year four expect him to
be winning big at Oklahoma. That's fair. Brent Venables wouldn't

(26:08):
disagree with that. He knows that's fair. So that's the
beauty of competition, isn't it. That's the beauty of coaching
in major college football when you got a place that's
structurally sound and Oklahoma is about as good as it
gets in that category, and they come in and your
guys come in and you're giving a little bit of time.
I mean, by year four, you gonna be humming. And

(26:29):
if it's not, then there's a tougher conversation or conversation.
I've wow, I don't know where that comes from. That's
watching too much Netflix because that is not my natural accent.
It's just crazy how much this time last year people
thought me included I am people. People thought that Brent
Venable's name would be linked to Jackson Arnold and it's

(26:53):
just it's gotta be John Mattier as it turns out.
I mean, think about saying that a year ago, a
year ago, Jackson Arnold is the former Elite eleven MVP,
and he's come in and he's sat for a year
and now he's going to be the starting quarterback at Oklahoma,
like he's the quarterback of the future. That was the
way it was think about saying this time last year. No,

(27:13):
I'll tell you who who, Brent Vinnibles is going to
have to hitch his wagon too. Is John Matteir the
kid at Washington State? Yep, what's gonna happen, Like you
would want to know what's about to happen. Is Jackson
Order going to quit football? No? No, it just wasn't
a good situation. So this has got to be the year.
That's the truth about Venables. This has got to be

(27:34):
the year that he makes it happen. They're watching us
in Fort Worth, Texas, Oceanside, California, and Biloxi, Mississippi, which
reminds me for no reason in particular, cream Soda Zevia
has made a return for the second show in a row.
Don't call it a comeback quite yet. I will tell

(27:54):
you and the folks at Zvia can do with this
whatever they want. Management walked in the office today during
work hours and drank a Zevia and we didn't ask
him to, We didn't record it. It wasn't for content,
it was room temperature. It wasn't even cold, and he
down that thing like during conversation. He wasn't even doing

(28:16):
it performatively. Now, the stock price could plummet at that
news becoming public. So I'm taking a risk even revealing this.
I'm not telling you Zvia is the choice of management.
I'm telling you that there was there was nothing else around,
and I handed him one and he did drink it.
So if you're more the sweater vest, country club, gated

(28:38):
community type, Zevia could be for you as well. We
found that out earlier today. We had a question that
I didn't know where to put it in the show,
so I just told Jesse toss it in there somewhere.
This is interesting. I guarantee every one of you will
have an opinion on this. Andy from Monterey, California said,
in your best estimation, who's the biggest face of sports media? Now?

(29:03):
That is a loaded question. I got my answer, but
I do want to know before I answer it. This
is the kind of question I want to give you
a little runway with anybody listening or watching. Biggest face
of sports media today not college football media, he said,
sports media, all of sports media. Who's the biggest face

(29:26):
of sports media, to you, to me, it came down
to two names, really and a lot of you're gonna
say stephen A. Smith. I actually went with two other names.
Nothing against Steven A. I think it is Pat McAfee
and I think it's Scott van Pelt. Scott van Pelt

(29:46):
is actually my number one for the face of sports media.
Scott Van Pelt has done something I don't know that
I've ever watched anyone else do. In fairness, no one
else has had the opportunity to do this. And what
I mean is Scott Vampel, Well, he needs to earmuff
himself for a second. Was one of my favorites when
I was a kid. You see that hairline, and when

(30:07):
I was a kid, Scott Van Pelt was on the scene.
Well what does that mean. That means he's been around
a long time. But that means Scott Van Pelt has
existed in the public arena across the entire expanse of
the birth of digital media, the birth of social media,
digital media, streaming. It's so much change happening in that world,

(30:28):
so much change about the way people consume sports, so
much change about what used to be accepted, what was
the norm, what was loved of what was hated, and
all that stuff is churned and churned and churned. It's
like existing in a hurricane. And he's been a constant,
he's been a constant face of sports media, and he's
never lost his likability. That is borderline impossible to do.

(30:54):
And think about how many people that were prominent in
media in general in the nineties and early two thousands
did not roll with changes and did not evolve with
the times and got left behind. And either they're still
around now and viewed as a dinosaur, or they're just
not around and you find yourself googling their name. I
wonder what happened to so and so. Van Pelts never

(31:17):
been off the front page, and he was born in
an era where you literally got your news on the
front page of a piece of paper. And now he's
still number one as far as I'm concerned in his space,
and it's twenty twenty five. In fact, he's elevated to
such a level that he can do he gets to
take months off in the summer. It's like a school teacher,
just a whole lot better paid. And then the other

(31:39):
part of that, I joke about the salary, but I
don't know if you guys realize this. Scott Van Peltz
pretty well off financially as he should be, He's probably
still underpaid. Do you know how difficult it is to
make the kind of money Scott Van Peltz made on
the stage that Scott Van Pelt's been on for his

(31:59):
life as long as he has and still be able
to go to like Topeka, Kansas and ask people about
him and they would tell you, yeah, he's one of us.
Man like Van Pelt's one of us. He feels like
one of us. It's I'm telling you, it's almost, if
not impossible to do that. The very nature of what
success brings you will will serve to separate you from

(32:22):
the rest of society unless you consciously make an effort
to remain a part of society. Like Van pelt doesn't
have to implode in on himself in Hartsville Jackson International
Airport the day after the National title game. Dude can
fly private every day and twice on Monday if he
wanted to, but he doesn't, and so as a result,

(32:43):
and that's just one anecdote, but as a result of that, somehow,
I mean, the dude's got a way more Zeros in
his bank account than the rest of America, pretty much
the ninety nine percent. And yet the ninety nine percent
look at him and say, I relate to that dude,
like he's one of us, and it's not an act.
It's not an act. That So like that, to me,
that's the face of sports media and also some of

(33:04):
the biggest criticism, criticisms that people have about some of
the other big names in sports media, he's avoided completely.
And he's got an entire sports center named after him
and has for a long time. So like, my favorite
work he did was when he was with Roussillo during
the radio show. Like if I could take like a
Scott Vanpelt era, I take that era, even over the

(33:27):
sports Center era of Scott Van Pelt. That was my
favorite because I was working in the fabric warehouse at
the time, so I'd listened to cow Herd in the
morning and I would listen to Van Pelton Rosillo and
that stretch they had. It was several years that stretch
they had on radio. It was my favorite radio show. Oh,
I loved it. Man loved the dynamic. And so he's
he could be around as long as he wants. To

(33:48):
I doubt he'll hang around forever, but he could do
it as long as he wants to. Then the other
side of that coin is Pat McAfee is everywhere. People
are probably gonna be a little bit more polarized about
that than they are Scott van Pelt. But you got
to understand something. You got to understand what Pat means
for folks like me. You got to understand that I
don't have a j School degree from Northwestern or Syracuse

(34:12):
hanging on my wall. And so for a long time
I did not see an entry point from myself. I didn't.
I looked and I said, I'd love to do sports
media for a living. I have no idea how. And
then this entire streaming thing happened. Platforms like YouTube and
Facebook even at the time they start letting you stream

(34:33):
live and you look at it and say, well, hold on.
So it used to be that like overhead and distribution
were the barriers of entry for me to get in
this business. But now you're holding both of those in
your hand if you have a cell phone. And this
happened overnight. So that was the gateway for people like
me to at least have a shot. Like if I'm

(34:54):
really good at all about what I do and if
I could really, you know, engage in all audience, well,
now I got a shot, and that's the way it
turned out. But at every step of the way, you
are fighting conventional wisdom. You are the salmon. You're having
to swim upstream. You're having to convince management that's invested
in terrestrial and linear their entire careers, hey we need

(35:17):
to look at digital, and you get laughed out of
the room. They got thirty five forty years experience on you.
That's telling them you can't monetize that. So like every
step of the way, you're having to fight that fight,
and then against all odds, you finally make it happen,
and you're convincing some advertisers, hey, maybe redirect one or
two percent of your ad spend over here to the
digital side. I promise we're going to build an audience.

(35:40):
I promise it. I know that life. So to watch
him do what he's done on a much bigger scale,
you got to understand there are elements of it that
you could only appreciate fully if you've had to live
that life. And you also got to understand when you
have a disruptor in your space. You could either do

(36:01):
one of two things. You could be stupid and be
envious of it and take shots at it, or you
get behind it like they do at Talladega, and you
could draft. And you need to understand how much money
is going to be brought into your space as a
result of someone like that doing what he's doing. Sort
of a keystone element to that. A keystone species affects

(36:23):
the entire ecosystem. Well, a guy like that affects the
entire ecosystem. And so for a different reason than Van Pel,
I think maybe Pat McFee is the other face you
could make their argument for Stephen A. Smith too. I
just I happened to go those two routes. When I'm
talking face to sports media. We went long on that. Man.
I had a lot to say. As it turns out,
let's continue. Let's hop back on the college football rails here.

(36:47):
We've been playing this game around here by looking at
teams and just flat out guessing are they going to
be better this year than they were last year or worse.
Let's start with Tennessee tonight. They were ten and two
last year. They're over under win total this year is
eight and a half. I think they're gonna be worse
than they were last year. I mean, there's not much
further to go up, and then you had the whole

(37:07):
Nico drama. But even before the Nico drama, they're one
hundred and tenth in offensive returning production. I guess that's
kind of counting Nico being gone. Joey Agilar comes in,
and there's a lot of hope at quarterback that Josh
Haipel can pull a miracle out of him. He's turnover
prone man or has been. We don't have room for that,
especially because we lose some big defensive pieces. Is defense

(37:30):
gonna be able to carry them again? Offensive line is
pretty big question. They knew that wide receiver, don't know
the caliber ball they're gonna play there. So ten and
two last year, I think Tennessee drops off a little bit,
So I'm gonna go worse there. USC's different story. USC
was six and six last year. They're over under win
total seven and five. They're gonna be better. They're just

(37:52):
gonna be better. The law of averages and desperation suggests
they've got to be better. This stat right here. We
normally only do this during the season This is a
paper popper of a stat I just look at it
in disbelief, immunity. I can't believe this is real. USC
led five Big Ten games in the fourth quarter last

(38:12):
year that they lost. I'm gonna repeat for a fact.
USC led five Big Ten games in the fourth quarter
last year dot dot dot dot that they lost. How
is the first question? Uh, sacks and tackles for loss.
I think are gonna improve on that team this year.
They're just they look better on the line of scrimmage.

(38:32):
They got players that look like they should be playing
on the line of scrimmage. O line, D line in
the Big ten. Jacobe Lane is going to be a
standout wide receiver one this year. They've just got to
be better. I mean seven and five would be better.
We're just talking regular season here. What about Florida State.
I don't know why we're doing this. Florida State is

(38:54):
going to be better than two and ten. I don't
know what more? What do you want from me? They
play Kent State and something called East Texas A and
M this year. They got to win those games to
be at least two and ten. Kent State is one
hundred and thirty sixth in preseason s and P plus.
That's last in all of FBS and East Texas A

(39:18):
and m Commerce Texas Jesse. Isn't that right playing Florida State? Yeah,
I don't really know what kind of argument you want
from me. Like they're going, the bus is going to
get to the stadium. All the players are gonna have
oxygen to breathe. They're gonna be better than to and
ten and Kansas State. This one's tricky. Kansas State was
eight and four last year. They got an over underwent

(39:41):
total of eight and a half. I'm going with Kansas
State being the same as they were last year. I
know Avery Johnson's back. I know that you don't always
just get huge improvement just because the guy returns. I
think Avery Johnson is who he is, who's a good player.
I think he is who he is as a quarterback.

(40:02):
I think there are questions along that offensive line. Sort
of a middle of the pack secondary last year, counting
on some portal back fills there. They go to Baylor,
they go to Kansas, they go to Oklahoma State. That'd
be interesting, but they get Texas Tech. They got to
go to Utah. That back half of their schedule is
not easy, and I just think it's a lot of

(40:23):
close games. Eight and four sounds about right to me.
So I'm not going to go too different on Kansas
State this year as opposed to last year. Let's move
it merrily along. Got a good pace here on the show,
and we did like an hour and a half the
other night, and I don't mind, but I know some
of you like to fit this into your commute to work,
So we're going a little more up tempo here. Some

(40:44):
of the biggest questions in college football this year, we've
sort of been tackling those on the show. And someone
just just asked, probably the question everyone's asking out loud
or to themselves about arch Manning. Everyone's got a take
on arch Manning. So just how good's arch Manning gonna be?
It directly involves obviously Texas, but then it's gonna either

(41:08):
directly or indirectly affect a whole lot of other teams.
So the way I see this, I'm gonna need you
to decide if you agree with this or not. I
don't think arch Manning is gonna be terrible. I don't
see any scenario where he's terrible. So if you disagree
with that. Then there's a third scenario. But if you
agree with that, I think there are two scenarios. Scenario one,

(41:32):
he's elite. He's a game changer immediately. He's like Trevor
Lawrence when he first showed up at Clemson. He's like
Tua at Alabama. It doesn't matter that their first year starters.
They're just immediately ballers, and they fundamentally change every game
they play in. They fundamentally change the conference title race,

(41:52):
the playoff race. He can win games with his legs
and with his arm. He's a guy who when you're
going to play Texas, you're asking the question, how do
we slow down arch Manning? Because if he's that good,
that's how you talk about it. You don't even say Texas,
you say arch Manning. That scenario one. And then if
that happens, like Wingo and DeAndre More, those guys at

(42:13):
wide receiver dominate. You probably got multiple thousand yard receivers.
Everything falls into place. Defense doesn't have to win the
game for you. That's scenario A. Scenario B is he's serviceable,
good enough, serviceable. He has ups and downs. I would
think about this like Tennessee had to deal with Nico

(42:35):
last year Tennessee had Nico. He's a first year starter.
You're accepting that there's gonna be some ups and downs there.
He makes some incredible throws every now and then, he
makes some egregious mistakes every now and then. But he's
your guy, he's the franchise. But in the meantime, you know,
you occasionally have these prolonged periods of drought. You got

(42:56):
first halves where you're not finding the end zone. What
has to happen, Well, you got to be able to
run the ball effectively. You got to be able to
control the ball at least. And defense has to win
you games. Defense has to buy you time to get
your affairs in order offensively. Now, the answer to the question,
I think is one of these two. I lean probably

(43:16):
a blend a little more towards the first one. I
think Arch is going to be incredible. He's got everything
around him to be incredible. But I think one of
the messages that I keep hearing from people who doubt
him is, well, now, quin Ewers wasn't a star last
year and Arch couldn't beat him out. So what does

(43:36):
it say that Sark didn't eveneel comfortable putting him in
last year. If he was really that good, then he
would have benched him. Okay, I think there's a whole
lot more to it than that. I think sark knew
last year that quin Ewers was hurt but able to go.
I think he trusted him. I think there was a
loyalty factor there. You can think about that whatever you want,

(43:57):
but I'm pretty sure I'm spot on with that. That
doesn't mean that he didn't know arch Manning was the
truth as well. You know last year in Napier went
with Graham Mertz over DJ Lagway. Mertz got hurt, Lagway
comes in, plays really good football, Florida turns it around
down the stretch. Well you could look at that and say,

(44:18):
how could he have been starting Graham Mertz over DJ Lagway. Well,
it's cause he thought that that guy gave him the
best chance to win. Arch Manning could be incredible this year.
I'm not gonna look at Steve Sarkisian in retrospect and
say how could he have not played him last year?
There's a lot that goes into that. Most of it
you can't pretend to know firsthand. So I don't know

(44:38):
if if I'm doubting him it's not going to be
because of that, I'll put it that way. A lot
of Quick Trips saw Texas schedule a second ago. A
lot of Quick Trips on the road between Texas and
where they're going to go play this year. A lot
of you making the road trips. Maybe I highly encourage you.
You don't have to stop at the Evil Beaver all
the time. I know it's big in that part of
the country. Quick Trips got with you need as well,

(45:02):
and they are the exclusive fuel provider of this show.
They make it possible for us to go on tour.
We went to Austin and visited with Sark. They made
it possible. Okay, so Quick Trips got the gas. Quick
Trips got the cold brew on tap, they got the
protein shakes, they got cases of water. I don't know
what you need, maybe some pizza. But what they are

(45:22):
is they're a friend to us and we appreciate it,
and they can be a friend to you as well.
Let's move on. Oh oh, look at this, I have
some chaos. What are some things that could happen this
year that would just be pretty chaotic. They really throw
a wrench in the blender, as Memo would say, I've

(45:44):
got one. I've got one. You remember the SEC last year,
how there was a lot of teams that were pretty good,
but no one was really elite, and that bore itself
out in the playoff. You remember that. What if that's
the Big Ten this year. Ten's been really good about
separation at the top. They've been really good about by
season's end, there's a clear Tier one and then there's

(46:08):
a pretty big gap between whatever, like Tier three. Sometimes
there is no Tier two. Well, that wasn't the SEC
last year. Last year at the SEC by the end
of the regular season had six teams with two or
three losses by the end of the regular season, and
no one really stood out. And then the Big Ten

(46:30):
had four teams that were ten and two or better.
And then there was a big gap, and Illinois was
kind of in the gap, but there was a big gap.
What if the Big Ten looks more like the SEC
this year. Now here's why that could be chaotic. It
could be that you just don't have a team that
emerges and you don't make it in the national title game.
But imagine this group. Think about the group of teams

(46:50):
I'm about to read you, Ohio State and Oregon and
Penn State, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, USC Washington. Those
teams all have win total of somewhere between seven and
a half and ten and a half. Now, you would
think that two or three of them are going to
elevate at the expense of the others, Right, that's the
modus operandi of the Big Ten. What if they don't.

(47:11):
What if they all just compress and it's a bunch
of nine and three, maybe some two loss teams scattered
in there, and then you get to playoff selection time
and the SEC had two or three teams just totally
elevate like the Big Ten did last year. And what
if maybe the ACC has a couple of teams elevate.

(47:33):
What if the Big twelve championship game is an undefeated
versus a one loss and the one loss wins it
to where it's pretty clear both of them are going
to go to the playoff. What if Notre Dame's plenty
good enough to make the playoff. Well, what you could
have is you could have your version of Bama, South
Carolina and Ole mess on the outside looking in. Only
it could be Penn State and Oregon and Michigan on

(47:54):
the outside looking in or something like that. Now, is
that chaotic? Well, it depends on who you're a fan.
But I'll tell you what it really would hurt. It
would hurt the Big Ten's argument they're making right now.
Tony Patini's out there making the argument that we want
the AQ structure, we want the AQ model where we're
guaranteed four teams per year. It'd be a bad look
in the middle of making that argument if you couldn't

(48:16):
get four teams in the playoff this year. It happened
to the SEC last year. You can go by the
way if you want to. You can go over to
FanDuel and bet on every one of these things right now.
You can go over there and you can get odds
to win the Big Ten. You can get over under
win totals, you can get alternate win totals. You can
get odds to win the National Championship. You can go

(48:36):
bet Ohio State Michigan. Right now. Literally the line is
there for you to bet on, so you can do
all of those things because of the exclusive odds provider
of this show. It's a beautiful, beautiful hue of blue
as well. We appreciate FanDuel they make a ton of
stuff available to us during the season that's proprietary, like
they kind of just provide it to us. It adds
a lot of context to the show. But that's available

(48:59):
for everyone. If you don't well bet, that's totally fine.
You can just go over there and look. It's free
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(49:43):
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Y in New York. All right, let's wrap up the

(50:05):
show tonight with bold predictions. I'm gonna warn you as
we do bold predictions here, this may be the boldest
batch of bold predictions that we have the entire summer.
So let's get it started. Stat Matt says Clemson, Penn State,
and LSU will be the top three teams in the

(50:26):
playoffs in that order. That's a ten. That's a ten
on the boldness scale. Clemson, Penn State, LSU finished one,
two three. So not only is he saying both all
three of them got to finish top three, he's giving
you the exact order. That means all of them need
to be like eleven to one minimum, and they all

(50:47):
need to go win their conference title because this is
this is after the title game weekend. And not only that,
I mean think about all the other teams out there
that have to not be in the top three, Like
you can't have Texas up there or Georgia up there,
or Ohio State or Oregon and all that happening perfectly.
That's too many tumblers to fall into place. For me,

(51:07):
So that's a ten. Next up, we've got another multi
parter here. Andrew from Columbia South Carolina said, neither Georgia,
Texas nor Alabama will make the playoff this year. So
those are the number two, three, and six teams in
the odds. That's a nine point seventy five for me.
Think about the fact that all three of them are

(51:27):
from the same league. If one of them was from
each league, that'd be one thing. But that's the top
three teams in the odds of the SEC that you're
collectively asking to fall out. We know SEC teams are
going to make the playoff, like a minimum of three
of them will make the playoffs. So you're talking about
like LSU, Florida A and m Ole miss Oklahoma, Tennessee, Missouri,

(51:50):
South Carolina. You're talking about a combination of those teams
elevating but knocking all of the favorites out. And that's
a bridge a little bit too far from me. Individually.
You could sell me on any of those teams missing
the playoff, maybe even a pair of them, but all
three of them miss it's tough. Next up, this one's
tough too. Agent p K said, Florida State will win

(52:13):
a playoff game. He's from North Dakota. By the way,
I was going to go ten on this, but I'm
only gonna go nine point seven five because remember, like
Arizona State comes from nowhere. Last year they win the
Big twelve, they make the playoff. Florida State, I mean
two years ago they would have been a playoff team
if it were a twelve team field, and Mike Norvell

(52:35):
was the coach then too. So it's not that we
haven't seen it. It's just that I saw what happened
last year and so thinking thinking that you could have
that disastrous a falloff, and then he just scales right
back up. Is that really how this works? Their win
total seven and a half. You gotta think they got
to at least win ten to make the playoff. That's
a nine point seven to five and the last one here,

(52:58):
I don't know. We need to check and see if
this has ever happened. I guess it hasn't because we
hadn't had a twelfteen playoff for very long. Sam said
this year there will be more than four schools with
a Tiger as the mascot that make it to the playoffs. Well,
that means it's got to be five. There are only

(53:19):
five as far as we could tell, there were only
five tigers in FBS, Clemson, LSU, Auburn, Missouri, and Memphis. Right,
so they all got to make it. Clemson okay, Lsu okay,
Auburn eh, Missouri, Memphis Eh. All of them gotta make it.
That is a ten. Very creative, love the animal, but

(53:43):
that's a ten on the boldness scale. That's how bold
predictions are done. Though. Remember the rule around here. If
you predict something that's nine point five or higher on
the boldness scale and it hits, you win a chalice
of supremacy. So we got four chali on the line tonight.
Chili is the plural of chalice. I appreciate you guys watching.
We have got our next show coming at you Sunday,

(54:05):
So we're going to take a nice little holiday break.
Enjoy yourselves, be careful with the fireworks, be responsible out
there boating or or camping or doing whatever you guys
are gonna do. Plenty of sunscreen. Jesse, and we will
see you back here same time Sunday night. Until then.
For producer Jesse, for director Bradley, I'm Josh fate, have

(54:25):
yourself a great rest of your week, and God bless.
Sign up for FanDuel at FanDuel dot com backslash CFB promotion.

(54:47):
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