CFP Rankings Reaction + Conference Title Predictions & Penn State Coaching Search

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:15):
Yeah, you're trying to figure stuff out. I'm trying to
figure stuff out. Every time. You think you've watched this
sport long enough, you've immersed yourself in college football long enough,
you just you know the ins and out, you know
how it works. You got the committee chair that comes
along and sits there and talks to Rhys Davis in
the playoff rankings reveal show, and he just spins your
head three hundred and sixty degrees on your neck. We're jampacked,

(00:36):
We're high the top a frigid downtown Nashville, Tennessee. Even
Jesse's cold. He grew up in Pennsylvania. More on the
happenings in that state later, But it is pretty cold
down here. It is Tuesday, December second, the year of
our lower twenty twenty five. The playoff rankings just got
revealed before we went on air, And in the words
of Stanley Hudson, when I'm asked, do I have something

(00:57):
that I want to say about it? Oh, yes I do.
Conference championship predictions. Also happening on the show tonight, we
have got a brand new JP pole on the show tonight.
We've got just an abject disaster unfolding. Friend of the program,
Ralph Russo said he was gonna stop short of calling
it a disaster today, but I am far less responsible

(01:20):
than Ralph Russo. It's a disaster, and I will explain
the latest happenings. You know, Kaline Seitaki, He's gonna choose
Brigham Young to stay at Brigham Young over Penn State.
So who's gonna take the job. You could be offered
the Penn State job before the night is done. All
that plus a huge developing story that we're monitoring that
I'm about to show you in just a second. Springfield,

(01:41):
Illinois is tuned in tonight. Cleveland, Ohio is tuned in Fairburn, Georgia,
Fort Worth, Texas. Do you hear those paper pops? I
wouldn't do it, Thrice Immunity unless there was something really
really big on the horizon. Bradley show it to him.
The drive to five hundred thousand subscribers on this has
been on since around the time James Franklin was fired,

(02:04):
which is about when we hit four hundred k. It
looks like the channel may get to five hundred thousand
subs before Penn State has a head coach. We put
out the poll today. What happens first? Eighty seven percent
of you incounting think we're going to hit five hundred K.
We are less than eight hundred away as we speak.
We've never even shown the live sub counter. I didn't
know we could do this until twenty minutes ago. But

(02:24):
that's where we are right now. So if you're watching,
I'm about to dive into the show. If you've held out,
and I don't know why you would have, it's free,
doesn't sign up for anything. But if you've held out
for this long, now is the time subscribe. Jesse thinks
we can hit it by midnight. I don't know. We'll see.
That's pretty lofty goal, but we're a pretty lofty show.
It's moving, said Jesse. It's moving, you know. It's fun

(02:46):
to watch this in real time. I've never seen this before. Anyway,
we'll check in on the live counter throughout the show.
We have much more serious, sad, somber, egregious things to discuss,
and of course by that I mean the playoff rankings.
Bradley include all that in the individual cut. Here's the endpoint.
The college football playoff rankings just got dropped in our lap,

(03:07):
and it affirmed some things that I thought I knew,
and it is just confounded me on some other things.
I know a lot of you want to talk about
Miami and Notre Dame, and I'm going to in a second.
I promised to unload on that the other night. Many
of you called me on the fact that I just
completely forgot to. Because I did completely forget to. I'm
not gonna forget tonight. But first things first, Bama and

(03:27):
Notre Dame flip spots. Some people were surprised by that.
I wasn't. Frankly, I thought Alabama belonged above Notre Dame
the entire time. But that's irrelevant because the past is
the past. If you follow the odds market on this
sort of thing, it became pretty obvious throughout last night
and today someone knew something. Don't even begin to ask
me how. When I'm college football Playoff commissioner, the leaks

(03:49):
will stop, but I'm not, And so the information was
apparently flowing and the odds market got ahold of it.
Alabama's nine, Notre Dame is ten, which brings me to
the point that I made say night, this was never
gonna be an Alabama Brigham Young deal like, if Alabama
loses the SEC Championship game Saturday. I never thought it
was gonna be an either or Alabama or Brigham Young

(04:12):
being n I thought it was always gonna be Notre
Dame or Brigham Young. Now I mentioned Alabama losing the
SEC championship game, what we really need to focus on
is what happens to BYU wins the Big Twelve title game.
That's what we really got to hone in on right here,
Because there was a thought when Alabama was tenth and
Notre Dame was ninth that m could Alabama fall out

(04:33):
of that thing? Could Brigham Young jump Alabama? No, They're
gonna jump Notre Dame, which is the way it should be.
By the way, Notre Dame's got a lot of benefit
for existing the way they do. And I've never pushed
back on it. You have never heard me go on
the show and say Notre Dame needs to join a conference.
I probably never will say it. I don't believe that
I actually fully respect Notre Dame's independence. If I was

(04:56):
a college football program, and I am Peyton State Frights,
we're undefeated on the year, we're independent, We're not joining
the conference. The rest of you needed to to survive.
We didn't. So I got no problem with Notre Dame's independence. However,
it does not come without risk. And the risk is
this this moment right here, you may finally see Notre
Dame get penalized for sitting at home on conference championship Saturday.

(05:20):
If that's the way it happens, that's the way it happens.
There's not this protective orb around South Bend, Indiana that
prevents them from the shrapnel of college football playoff selection season.
I mean, they could get cut in the neck the
same as the rest of us. So it was never
gonna be Alabama and Notre Dame or Alabama Brigham Back.
It was gonna be Notre Dame or Brigham Young. Now

(05:40):
the discussion points, as much as I do agree with
Alabama being bumped above Notre Dame, are insane. Here's the
only thing you need to say, all right, I need
to step in. I need to intercede for Hunter, You're
a check. That's that became obvious in the Arkansas coaching search,
but it's especially obvious now. Just say the committee decided

(06:01):
to put Alabama above Notre Dame. Just say that. I
don't care if it leaves dead air and Rhese Davis
is left looking at you saying, uh is he okay?
Someone check on him. I don't care, because that would
be better. Pregnant pauses and outright dead air would be
better than me listening to you tell me Alabama elevated
because they were at one point up seventeen to nothing

(06:21):
on Auburn. Correct me if I'm wrong, Jesse. They also
ended up being tied with Auburn in that same game.
It was a rivalry game, which apparently is a data point. Now, also,
Alabama ran the ball better. These are actual phrases that
came out of his mouth when it came to explaining
why Alabama elevated. Dude, just shut up. Just say they

(06:41):
elevated because we decided they need to elevate. That may
leave a little mystery or maybe a little suspense, But
me maw had an age old saying about being foolish
and opening your mouth and removing all doubt. Don't don't
open your mouth. Just don't open the mouth. Okay. Now,
as for this whole note name Miami thing. Take a

(07:04):
deep breath. It's been thirty minutes. I tried to cool down.
I can't cool down on it. The way Notre Dame
in Miami are being discussed together as a joke. Notre
Dame being ranked ahead of Miami is a joke. A
lot of the conversation piece around why Notre Dame is
ranked above Miami continues to be a joke to me.

(07:25):
They were once again ranked ahead of Miami tonight. There
is a thought in the room that now that's set. Now.
If you were watching the playoff rankings reveal show, they
brought Hunter Yuracheck on and he fumbled his way through admitting, no,
that doesn't mean their set idle teams can still move
after conference championship Saturday. But even then he said they could,
he didn't say they would. So how in the world

(07:47):
could Miami still be in this There is a way.
I don't think Miami's fully cooked yet, And here's how
it would happen. Miami should be the biggest fan of
duke football in the history of mankind. Right now, let
me here for a second. There is a world where
Brigham Young loses. Okay, so they're out of the way,
and then it's just Miami and Notre Dame next to

(08:09):
each other. Imagine Duke winning the ACC Championship game. They
are currently about a field goal or a two and
a half point dog. So it's very conceivable if Duke
wins the ACC Championship game, the aforementioned ACC doomsday scenario
goes into effect, and that is Duke's not going to
make the playoff because they won't be one of the

(08:31):
five highest rank conference champs. And so the committee would
be left sitting there having already had the Notre Dame
Miami debate in front of them to begin with, which
is agregious on the surface that Miami doesn't already get
the nod over Notre Dame. Not only will they have that,
they'll also have this added sledgehammer to their face at
the eleventh hour of the idea that we either put

(08:53):
Miami in or there will be no representation from an
entire power for conference. And as much as you may
be sitting there thinking, oh, well, tough luck, that's not
why this thing was built. This thing was not built
to vault two G five teams into a twelve team playoff.
It wasn't built for that. And so imagine selection Sunday

(09:16):
Brigham Young loses there out of the way. It is
Notre Dame Miami boom smack dab next to each other,
and Duke has won the ACC championship game. So you're
having the Notre Dame Miami debate again, and you have
the added benefit of knowing if we don't put Miami
in there is no ACC team, then that's a nightmare.

(09:37):
Or what you could do is you could just look
at it and say, like you did with Alabama Notre
Dame tonight, we had the wrong team above another team
all along because we have continued to beat our heads
against the door when it comes to Notre Dame Miami.
I don't need you to question my intelligence on this.
I don't need you to throw data points in my face.
I've seen all the arguments. I've heard the Notre Dame

(09:58):
case articulated. It's wrong. It's wrong. And here's how I
know it's wrong because I watched the two teams play
on a football field. Okay, so this is a blanket
policy that could apply to anyone. If I've got a
head to head result, if the resumes are even remotely comparable,
the head to head result's gonna carry the day. I'll
tell you why. Because this is competitive sport. It is

(10:22):
merit based competitive sport. I don't need you coming to
me saying, oh, well, the head to head does matter.
It's just not the only thing that matters. It better
be times ten mattering over everything else, or else, I
don't really know why we're playing the games. Okay, So
you're either gonna come to me and say Notre Dame's
resume is unequivocally head and shoulders better than Miami, which
it's not, or I'm gonna look at you in the

(10:43):
eye and say, great, cool, you found fractions of inches
on that little piece of paper. I found four and
a half hours of game tape. If you want to
watch the broadcast copy that shows you Miami beating Notre Dame.
You know, Josh, it was a long time ago. Yeah,
unless you tell me. We've got preseason games in college
football now, as far as I can tell, as a
regular season game, there is there is an L right there,

(11:04):
right before the next L that Notre Dame. Todd So
got all the respect in the world for Notre Dame.
It would be great for my business if Notre Dame
were in the playoff. But it's not made for TV.
It's not a production. It's competitive sport. I know, in
reality it is made for TV, but if you really
care about the purity and the sanctity we still use
those words around here of college football and the integrity

(11:25):
of the bracket, Miami Auto have been ahead of Notre
Dame already, and if it comes time on selection Sunday
for that committee to decide whether they're going to vault
Miami over Notre Dame, especially if Duke Win's the ACC
or have no ACC representation, I still think they may
put Miami in over Notre Dame. Let's talk about Alabama
for a second. Alabama's going to be in the playoff.

(11:47):
There's a lot of debate about this right now, and
I think it's pretty foolish. The question tonight was sort
of answered about whether Alabama would jump Notre Dame or not. Like,
if there's one team that's got to fall out if
Brigham Young wins the Big Twelve, is it gonna be
Alabama if they lose in the SEC title game or
is it gonna be Notre Name. It's gonna be Notre Dame.
I can answer that question for you. I think the
committee answered that question for you tonight. But the other

(12:08):
question around Alabama is well, okay, if they're not gonna
fall out of the playoff if they lose, which they're
not going to, well, how high could they jump if
they win? I heard another scenario floated out there tonight
that boy, if Alabama wins the SEC Championship game, look
what that opens the door for? That opens the door
for three Big Ten teams to get buys. No it doesn't, No,

(12:32):
it doesn't. All that's gonna happen is Alabama's gonna take
one of those top four spots, as they should. I
don't even have a problem with it. You need to
understand what's in play here, all right. The SEC Championship
Game and the Big Ten Championship game. Those two things
matter more than any other properties in the room outside
of the playoff itself. Now we're gonna talk adult talk here,

(12:54):
So if we got any children, you just need to
ear Muffett for a second because this may not make
you feel good. But I'm just going to tell you
the way it is. The SEC and the Big Ten
are better than the rest of college football. Everyone knows it.
To suggest otherwise is just to pretend or live in
some fantasy world. They've got a ton invested in their
conference championship games. Therefore, inclusion in those games, participation in

(13:15):
those games, whether you win it or lose it, has
to carry maximum significance or else you erode very quickly
the credibility and integrity and value of those games and
people stop caring and teams stop wanting to play in them.
You've already had a little bit of that going on now,
But I want you to imagine what would happen to
exclamate that, to amplify that. If an Alabama lost Saturday

(13:38):
and got bumped out, or if they won the conference
championship Saturday but only got bumped up to five, so
you put an at large team ahead of them from
another conference. It's not gonna happen. That's not gonna happen
that way. But the other thing to consider in the
Big Ten is that's also why Ohio State and Indiana
both know, regardless of the outcome Saturday, they're going to

(13:59):
be in the top four. Why because they're playing in
the conference championship game in the Big Ten. That's why.
So it really doesn't matter. What matters is the order
of seating. Whoever wins that game will be number one.
Whoever loses it probably doesn't drop below two, but I
can virtually assure you if Alabama wins Saturday, they're jumping
into that top four. Some guy came at me and

(14:20):
Bud Elliott earlier today, of all people came at me
and Bud Elliott wanted to bet us a thousand American
dollars on this, and look, we wanted to go for
more than one K. When there's free money on the table, kids,
you got to take it. Very rarely are those sorts
of propositions offered to you in life. We have thus
far gotten no response from that gentleman. Texas and Vandy

(14:41):
don't appear to have a path. A lot of thoughts
about this feel really bad for Vanderbilt. I don't know
what would have happened tonight to give them a path.
I just don't know what the scenario would have been.
And I look, Texas jumped up a few spots. That's
really been one of the talking point that's ground past

(15:02):
tensive grind, ground my gears a little bit because it
kind of goes back to the same thing we're talking
about with Notre Dame, the eye test. The eye test.
Kublick pressed me on this on his own radio show
early this morning. We were talking about Miami Notre Dame.
He said, who do you think is better? Who would
you pick if they played right now, Miami or Notre Dame.
I picked Notre Dame. I don't care who I'd picked.

(15:24):
I don't care who I think the better team is.
Just like with Texas, Do I think there are twelve
teams in the country better than Texas? Of course I don't.
Who do I think would give Ohio State a better
run for their money? Texas or Brigham Young? Well, of
course I think Texas could potentially, because they do have
the personnel where they could do that. That's not how

(15:45):
this works. You don't get power rated into the playoff.
You earn your way into the playoff. Texas hasn't earned
their way into the playoff, And it would be another
thing if you would scheduled up which they did and
challenged Ohio State in Week one, which they did. It
lost a couple of more really competitive games, but dominated elsewhere.

(16:06):
They didn't. They lost to a really bad Florida team.
It just look, you don't need to sell me on
how tough it is to play in the swamp and
when Florida's clicking earlier in the season, and they've got
all those athletes all over the place. They were way
better than their final record indicated. I know that I
picked them to beat you that day. I expected them
to play at that level. I'm not holding you to

(16:29):
a pretty good standard. If you're Texas and you're trying
to make the playoff, you got to meet a higher
bar than that, and you didn't. And you really messed
around on a road against Kentucky and you messed around
on the road against Mississippi State. I'd love to paint
the path. I'd love to pave the path for Texas
to get in. It's not there. You didn't earn your
way in the body of work's not there. And trust me,

(16:50):
anyone who watches this show, anyone familiar with the model,
knows if there was a show out there that was
going to paint the path for Texas to get in
this thing, I'd do it. It's just not there. It
is just not there. That win at the end against
A and M gave them a fighting chance, but you
needed other dominoes to fall and they just didn't. So
it's not there. The G five, the American champ, I

(17:13):
think is a lock at this point, I would say
to get in. But man, the difference in the sixth
or the seven seed right now, if you just take
a look at the way the bracket sets up, the
different you know, A and M for instance, am seventh
right now. Ole Miss jumped and hats off to the committee,
by the way, apparently saying we could not care less

(17:34):
that our own protocol allows us to drop ole Miss
because their coaches left. We're not going to do that.
I assume that's what they mean if they vault ole
Miss up one spot. So look at the difference in
six and seven as it relates to projected first round matchups. See,
you may think to yourself, oh, who cares, six, seven

(17:54):
doesn't matter. We'll get a first round home playoff game
either way. Yeah. Well, it's the difference in the sixth
seed playing an ACC team or a G five team
versus the seventh seed playing Notre Dame. Right now, there
are three touchdowns worth of a difference in point spread
of you playing one versus you play in the other.

(18:15):
So you you got that sixth seed, you will face
tougher competition in your practices during the week than you
would on that game day. Versus being the seventh seed.
Speaking of hypotheticals, FanDuel has hit us up and they
have let us know what these hypotheticals would be. And

(18:36):
this is just going off the way the bracket is
set up right now. So if Alabama played at Oklahoma
right now, Bama is a one and a half point
favorite in Norman, Notre Dame at Texas A and M
would be a Pickham. And then we got a combination
of potential matchups here, so James Madison at Oregon would
be Oregon minus eighteen and a half. Oregon would be
favored by nineteen and a half against North Texas, Oregon

(18:58):
by twenty four and a half against Tulane. And then
we got a few of them with Old miss too,
Virginia at Ole, miss Ole, miss minus thirteen and a half,
North Texas at Ole, miss Ole, Miss minus thirteen, tu
Lane at Ole, miss Ole, miss minus eighteen. I know
everyone's gonna have thoughts on, especially the Alabama part, the
Notre Dame Miami part, and the dumbest part about all

(19:22):
this is like, there are obviously no sure things here,
but everyone who appears to be making their case in
the Miami or the Notre Dame side of things continues
to beat a gavel on the table. This is not
even debatable. It's not even remotely close, and I especially
don't understand that argument from the Notre Dame side of things.

(19:44):
My entire reason for advocating Miami being above Notre Dame
is because I think it is close. And there's like
this certain bubble where if we get inside the bubble,
that means the two cluster, the two data points they're
in the cluster, are at least comparable. And if they're comparable,
you need to ask only one other question. Do we
have a head to head result between these two dots

(20:04):
here we do? Or whichever dot one that's the one
that goes above the dot that lost. That's it. That's
how this really should work. Of course, things can't be
that simple in college football. Happy to have you in
with us Quick Live Counter, Jesse, just because we have
this technology. I was just curious as to where we
were look at that we had it like two hundred

(20:25):
since the start of the show. Let me tell you,
ladies and gentlemen. When I first started doing this show,
we were doing it in Columbus, Georgia. It was a
really big deal for us to have twenty live viewers
per show concurrently twenty live years, so we have like
eleveny twelve thousand watching live right now. It's a big
deal and you just have to stop and think about

(20:45):
sometimes how far the show has come because of you guys.
We were able to take it from Columbus to Nashville
mainly because a quick Trip fueling us the whole way,
fueling the show figuratively and literally. Quick Trip has fueled us.
They are they are amongst us, they are our people.
And if you don't believe me, you ought to go
follow a Quick Trip on Twitter because I mean, look,

(21:07):
they basically act as if I'm running their account and
I'm not. But QT Joe quick Trip, Joe good close
friend of the program, our ambassador to Quick Trip, if
you will, or quick Trip's ambassador to Pete State, really sharp.
You know what else? He has coldbron tap, very competitive
prices at the pump, and also world class trail mix

(21:30):
and also some food right off the grill, and a
smiling face at the checkout counter. We appreciate Quick Trip.
They'll take us right down to Atlanta, Georgia this weekend
for the sec Championship game. And speaking of which, I
lost my Oh no, I didn't lose my lip bomb.
I thought I was going to have to get a
little messy here and put on the squeeze bottle time. Nope,

(21:51):
we're good due points at an all time low in
Nashville tonight. SEC Championship game this Saturday, Alabama versus Georgia,
four pm Eastern Time, kickoff from the Georgia Dome. Scratched
that the Georgia Dome has apparently died. It is no
longer with us, and so a Mercedes Benz Stadium we'll

(22:14):
have to do. Ten of the last eleven SEC champions
are either Alabama or Georgia, and Stats and Info tells
me one of these teams has to win this game. Therefore,
twelve or eleven out of the last twelve SEC champs
will have come either Obama or Georgia, and the only
exception twenty nineteen LSU. Some are asking why does this

(22:37):
game matter? Why does this game matter? Josh? Well, Number one,
it's the SEC Championship game. Do we need to get
Kirby Smart on the horn? Kirby Smart is on the
very short list of candidates if we ever decide to
hire a head coach at Payt State. Guy just gets it.
Longtime veteran of the show appeared on the show many times,
but he sat there the other day said it's the
SEC Championship, Like, don't you people care about that anymore?

(23:00):
And then someone asked them about all these injuries, said, well,
if you worry about injuries, you don't even practice. You
get a scared football team if you're worried about injuries.
So it matters because it's the SEC Championship. It also
matters because the winner of this thing's going to get
a first round bye, yes, even if it's Alabama. And
the third thing is that gives you some rest, and
that is especially imperative for both of these teams because

(23:21):
they are beat to death. I think they'll both have
eleven on the field at the time Saturday, but I
don't really know Kirby's one to seven versus Alabama as
the head coach at Georgia, so we already saw this
game happen. We were at the game in Athens. How
much does September matter? How much does that first game matter?
Because we got a couple of games this Saturday that

(23:42):
are rematches of regular season games. That first game, Bama
was just lethal on third down. They were thirteen of nineteen.
Georgia was two of eight. Now, a lot of times
when you have an outcome, any given outcome, the winning
team probably did some things above and beyond what they
average doing in that stat category. So with Alabama thirteen

(24:05):
of nineteen, I mean, they're pretty good on third down,
but they're not always that good on third down, Georgia
two of eight, they're not always that bad on third down.
Both of them are top thirty in that category. When
you have the rematch, the age old question is always
do we have a progression and regression back to the mean.
If you do big advantage Georgia here, there's no guarantee

(24:26):
it happens. That's why it's a key to victory and
not an outright prediction. Ty Simpson was sixteen of twenty
four in this game. If anyone remembers, it wasn't that
long ago. He sliced Georgia up pretty good. He was
sixteen of twenty four in the first half against Georgia.
He had one hundred and ninety six and two touchdowns
in the first half against Georgia. Now, anyone who's watched

(24:48):
Alabama offensively as of late would understand with their own eyes. Eh,
Ty Simpson not bad, just seems to have regressed a
little bit. Probably banged up everyone at this point, but
the players regressed a little bit. He's missing Josh Quavis,
who pound for pounds, one of the most important offensive
players they've had. Georgia will shed no tears because they're

(25:09):
missing important players as well. Jam Miller, I don't know
if he's gonna play. If he does play, far less
than one hundred percent. Again, no tears from Georgia anyway.
Pass pro has been an issue because of that, especially
against Auburn last week. So again, that's one of the
keys to being really lethal on third down. That's one

(25:30):
of the keys to being really lethal through the air
in the first half like he was the first time.
Do we have a regression to the meme? And then
when we talk about pressure, let's talk about Georgia. The
Georgia pass rush is the most important facet of this
game to me. It's a fundamental difference that could spell
the difference between the first game. In this game, they

(25:52):
didn't sack Tie Simpson the first game, they didn't even
pressure him enough in the first game, but they're havoc
rate over the last half of the season has been
over twenty percent two of their last three games, and
really could have been against the FCS dial it up game,
but they chose not to. But against Texas and Georgia Tech,
if you watched Georgia, they got after the quarterback to

(26:15):
a degree that they did not in the first half
of the season. And that just goes back to the
whole Kirby Smart. Never stop coaching, never stop working, never
stop scheming, never stop developing, even during the season, different angles,
different approaches, and it's just you're not going to reinvent
yourself on the fly during the season. But what you

(26:35):
can do is you can just keep coaching that you
know what out of your team to find fractions of
inches and squeezing the sponge that much harder to just
get a couple of more drops out of it. Because
in these kinds of games like they play with Alabama,
they're always one possession games. This game absolutely profiles as that.
Georgia's favored by two and a half. So there are

(26:57):
two game breaker spots that I'll have a close eye
on in this one. They're actually both at the receiver position,
which is kind of weird if you think about the
history of these two programs. It used to be Kirby
and Nick Saban, and it used to be a line
of scrimmage man who can run the ball, and each
of them looked the other in the eye and it
was like they were looking in the mirror. And you
fast forward several years and Alabama's ability to break this

(27:20):
game if they do, it's kind of like it was
the first game Alabama. They labored their way to a
little over one hundred yards rushing and they did stay
committed to it, and that kept the passing game open enough.
But Jeremy Bernard, Isaiah Horton's come on a lot for them.
I got no clue what's happening with Ryan Williams. Lotzier
Brooks has really stepped up. Those are game breaker types.

(27:41):
That is a game breaker type unit. If ty Simpson
has time to operate, and they're going to have to
come through, cause there aren't many other paths for Alabama now.
They have really struggled to consistently hit the deep ball,
and they've struggled to run the ball, which means you
really got to thread the needle. You really got to
be precise in the under neath an intermediate passing game.

(28:02):
That's the path for Alabama. Now, it's not a mystery
it has been for a while with Georgia. Zachariah Branch
is a very important player in this game. I stood
there last week and watched Alabama seem to be in
control of a game defensively, and then they're two huge,
like yards after catch explosive plays, and you sit there
and think to yourself as you're watching the replay. Once

(28:24):
you know Alabama wins the game, you're thinking, who on
Georgia's team can do that? Oh, Zachari Branch, Yeah, yeah, absolutely,
probably more so than anybody Auburn has. So it doesn't
it doesn't matter if you've got control of the game.
If you just casually let a couple of plays spring
for fifty five sixty yards after the catch, that guy
can do that. Alabama secondary throttled Georgia down a little

(28:47):
bit a lot actually in passing numbers the first go
around here, but Georgia still had two twenty seven on
the ground, and I expect Georgia to have a fair
amount of success running the ball again in this game.
I don't know if you just outright win the game
running the ball now, full credit to that staff at Georgia,
like they've done a really good job resurrecting that ground game,
and it's been good enough, plenty good enough this year.

(29:11):
If that's still there, If the ground game is still there,
don't have to run it for over two hundred but
just run it effectively enough. That's a big deal. This
is where that Georgia's center spot matters. Drew Bobo's status
has been very much up in the air. I would
just lean towards he's not playing, and if they get
him late in the week, that's a pleasant surprise. But

(29:32):
you think about the individual matchups here, You think about
what it takes for Georgia to operate efficiently offensively, and
the difference in a red shirt freshman starting against the
likes of Tim Keenan at Alabama are and it could
be anything from functionality in the snapping game to run fits,

(29:54):
to disruption on that front, to disruption in timing of
passes and rhythm and whatnot. All of that stuff can
be a big factor here. But the injury situation is
a huge deal both ways. I could just as easily say,
you know, Bama was so lethal on third down. Who
was their number one safety valve really this side of
Jeremy Bernard down the stretch, it was Josh Quavis. They

(30:16):
don't expect to get him back for this game. That's
why it looks so labor intensive against Auburn. They didn't
have one of the most dependable third down weapons. Not
to mention the little dip you taking pass pro with
Ady not being on the field. So the injury situation
is really tough for both teams. And that's for the
guys that will miss the game. They're gonna be guys
on the field that probably have little business being on

(30:38):
the field. You just you got a mentality of a warrior.
It's a conference championship game by this point. The other
thing to remember the first go around in this one
was big staff win for Alabama. I mentioned this with
Texas and Georgia when they played a few weeks ago.
When we get they're about like five or six programs
in college football that when they play, I almost don't

(31:00):
sern myself so much with matchups. It's a staffing thing
for me. Texas Georgia just the same as Alabama Georgia
and that they all get to choose how they do it.
College football does not dictate that Alabama or Georgia have
to play and recruit any one way. They get to
have whatever style they want offensively and defensively. They get

(31:21):
to define whatever identity they want their program to have.
They pretty much get to recruit any kind of athlete
they want. They've got really good nil resources, so they
get to build themselves however they want to. Nothing's off limits.
So it's all about culture versus culture. It's all about
approach versus approach. And Georgia has just stomped Texas's approach

(31:42):
and they've outstaffed Texas a couple of times. It wasn't
that emphatic, but I thought Debor and his staff kind
of did that to Kirby to first go around. You
don't say that very often about Kirby Smart and Georgia
rarely do you ever say it. So my question is
do we end up saying it twice? Like Debor's still
perfect against landing Kirby and Sark in his career, is

(32:04):
that going to continue here? Let's take a look at
what the model thinks. FanDuel's got Georgia by two and
a half model a little higher on Georgia than FanDuel
is we cross three. The Pate State model, the little
in house model. It's not a little model. The in
house model here has Georgia by four. I cannot emphasize
this enough. I have no feel on the game. I've

(32:25):
watched every snap of both of these teams, maybe outside
of the SCS games, and we have arrived in December,
and I really have no feel on the game. The
injury situation especially muddies it up for me. So when
I don't have a feel all that much on the game,
I'll just go with the model. The model says Georgia
wins and covers, I'll say Georgia wins and covers. I
also said that the first go around in Athens and

(32:46):
whiffed on that one. So who knows what I do
know is really looking forward to it. As a kid
who grew up on the Chattahoochee River, which is the
river that divides Alabama and Georgia, it always means a
little bit extra for me when those two teams play.
The current odds to win the national Championship Georgia's third, fourth, fifth, sixth,

(33:07):
Alabama's eighth and whoever wins this one I think gets
a first round by I would also just highly suggest
as you guys are checking out the ABC broadcast of
that game, might want to flip over to ESPN a
time or two. Who knows what could be happening over there.
I'm told an announcement maybe coming tomorrow on that front.

(33:28):
But you know what, the night before is when it
really pops off, because the night before is when we
have our first ever sort of exclusive live show, and
we're doing it in Atlanta, Georgia, the night before the
SEC Championship game. It'll be at the Buckhead Theater in Atlanta,
about twenty minutes up the road from Mercedes Benz Stadium, Georgia. Folks,
you already lived there. Bama folks, you'll be in town

(33:50):
for the game. We got a few tickets remaining. We've
kind of slowly been like releasing some onto the market
so that we don't just hard sell out before we
know the matchup of the game. I cannot stress this enough.
Those tickets will not last, so if you want them,
you need to grab them now. Paystatematerial dot com. You'll
see the tab for the live show gonna be fun,

(34:11):
gonna have some special guests. Rumor on the street is
Cublic's even gonna drop by. Now that's merely rumor because
it's not I can't legally confirm that, So it's merely
rumor at this point. But we're gonna have a lot
of fun and we'll do more of those in the future.
But you only get one shot to attend the first one,
and so that's this one. Looking forward to having you

(34:31):
guys there. Live count update, Jesse, what's the live count
at we are? Boy? Oh boy? Could it actually happen?
So we're at four nine nine seven four eight. I
mean we're like two hundred and fifty away. I may
have vastly underestimated the audience. Yeah, if you're watching right now,

(34:52):
I mean, we got like twelve thousand tuned in, so
we just need like two hundred and fifty of you
to hit the subscribe button. I don't really know that
I can compose myself if we hit five hundred k live. Anyway,
back to the show, Ohio State Indiana Big Ten Championship
Game hoops to monks. US didn't see that coming. Two
years ago Saturday night, eight eastern seventh Central on Fox.

(35:13):
This game happened last year, different personnel, different venue. But
just before we dive into this, let's remember this game
did happen last year. Ohio State thirty eight, Indiana fifteen.
Some said it wasn't even as close as the final
score indicated. I am some. The difference is well, one

(35:33):
of the differences is this Indiana team is a legit
number two team in the country. We're going to show
the JP pole later, which is just a power rating.
They're number two. So, like, I can't believe Indiana has
become this good. I just I cannot believe it. So
regardless of the outcome this Saturday, hats off. But I
will say, if they only manage sixty eight yards passing again,

(35:55):
I think the result may look the same. So there's
some non negotiables here for Indiana. Obviously, the line on
the game's Ohio State minus four and a half. Fernando
Mendoza's right up there as a favorite or a co
favorite in the Heismanage right now, depending on where you look.
So their challenge is they've got to scale their passing
game against the number one pass defense in the country.

(36:16):
It's non negotiable, all right. I mean, if they're getting
throttled down on that front. Ohio State just gets to
kind of mess around and know that twenty four points
will probably be plenty good enough, So they've got to
scale those passing numbers. Now. They have faced two top
ten passing defenses so far this year. One of them

(36:36):
was Oregon. Mendoza was twenty of thirty one for two fifteen,
one touchdown, one interception. The other one was Iowa thirteen
of twenty three. Against Oregon, he was twenty of thirty one.
Against Iowa, he was thirteen of twenty three two thirty three,
two touchdowns, one pick. Candidly, I think he needs better
numbers than either one of those games to beat Ohio

(36:56):
State unless there's a really really big turnover differential in
this game. But that's not the fun part. I kind
of skimmed over that because that's not the fun matchup.
The fun matchup is how much can Indiana run the ball?
How successfully can they run the ball. This is not
a dominant ground game, but they're pretty good at running
the ball. Ohio State's got the number four run defense

(37:17):
in the country. All right, So if I tell you
that one side's not dominant any way doing it, but good,
just not dominant, and the other side top five. Normally
you think to yourself, I mean, give me Ohio State
all day, and it may work out that way. It
may work out that way. Indiana's got the number nine
rushing attack in the country, so I don't want to
paint them as like this poverty program. When it comes

(37:38):
to running the ball, they're very good at it. But
the paper here, I have brought the paper along tonight,
I'll pop it. Why not immunity It says Ohio State
has a discernible advantage here. Here's the one thing to
watch because of the nature of Ohio State schedule. They
are very good. I don't doubt them on that front.
But they have gotten this late in the season without

(38:00):
facing sort of like a top fifty rushing attack with
a good passing game attached to it. Michigan was that,
but Michigan doesn't have a high level passing game attached
to their ground game. Indiana does. So Really, that's what
we call a toolbox offense around here, an offense like Texas,
A and m kinda like on any given weekend, they

(38:20):
could throw it for four hundred on you, they could
run it for three hundred on you. Neither of those
things is going to happen to Ohio State, mind you,
but they could do multiple things. At the very least,
it finally makes you respect the full spectrum of offense,
and Ohio State did not have to do that against
Wisconsin and Penn State and Purdue and UCLA. So it
may be a moot point because Ohio State may just

(38:41):
be that good. This is one of the final things
we kind of have to find out, Joel Klatt said
on the broadcast last week, and I thought it was
very well put. He said. It seems like all the
other contenders just keep giving us more questions. Ohio State
just keeps giving us more answers. This could be another
one of the answers. There aren't many questions with Ohio State.

(39:01):
So Penn State, especially with outside runs. They had some
very good early success against Ohio State that didn't last
very long. But again it's the number one team in
the country, so you're kind of trying to nitpick. You're
having to pull out the magnifying glass a little bit
to find edges. But it sounds like I'm talking about
Indiana as a three touchdown dog. I'm not. They're a

(39:22):
four and a half point dog if they were to
win the game. That's probably one thing they've figured out.
The other thing is maybe they have figured out a
way to have an answer for Ohio State's explosives, because
if you don't, then rest of this stuff you might
as well just fast forward through. You can, Like, here's
what's so frustrating about playing Ohio State. You can control

(39:43):
the tempo in the game. You could tilt the field
with special teams, have great starting field position versus terrible
for them. You could run the ball pretty successfully, you
could have good success on third down. All that could
be happening. And yet because Ohio State still top ten
in catbuster passes, it just doesn't matter. Because they got

(40:04):
so many guys that could break the game on you.
Jeremiah Smith not the least among them. But then all
of a sudden, you got Carnel Tate doing it. I mean,
they got tight ends that are better than a lot
of receivers out there. And if they're doing those things,
it doesn't really matter. You worked so hard to create
this game script and they just pop one for seventy
on you, and you're like, man, we worked so hard,

(40:26):
and look how easy they just made. It. Can't let
that happen. It is a test of Will's game. Not
guys named Will, mind you, but that Indiana at Oregon
game kind of did something to us, Like you thought
about Indiana one way before that day, and you were
forced to think about them a different way after that.
I know I did, so I no longer worry about

(40:47):
them just getting clowned, like they kind of got clowned
in this game a little bit last year. I'm not
saying Ohio State couldn't run away with the game. Ohio
State they have paths where they could blow anyone out.
I'd kind of be surprised if Indiana didn't put up
a really good fight here at the very least. Also,
what sticks in my mind is Ohio State's handling of Michigan,

(41:08):
which is six days ago, seven days ago at the
point of this game kicking off, where they've had a
four year drought and they win the game, and they
were very celebratory, but also they were alarmingly business like
because it was just another box they were going to check.
I'm not denigrating the nature of that rivalry. It's the
best rivalry in college football. I've been to it several

(41:29):
times It's a humongous accomplishment to win that game, but
it was not a Super Bowl vibe, and so both
of their wills on display at Lucas Oil Stadium the
same time. That's the beauty of conference championship games. That's
the beauty of late season college football, because you got
multiple programs, multiple teams out there that look like they

(41:50):
can't be defeated. And in this case it's number one
versus number two. Someone's got a Toteiel. Let's take a
look at what the model thinks. FanDuel's got Ohio State
minus four and a half right now, Model agrees Model
Scott Ohio State minus four and a half. I just
got to tell you, I've watched Ohio State play all year.
I've watched them be dominant all year, and yet there

(42:11):
has still been this voice in the back of my
mind that says, we have only seen their A minus game.
There is still a little bit more in the tank.
They geared up last year at the perfect time. I
until further notice, have to assume they're going to do
that again. So I'll doubt Indiana. That's fine, if they
need it in the hype video, that's fine. But until

(42:33):
further notice, Ohio State is the best team in the country,
and I'm taking them to win, and I will take
them to cover if they lose. Hey, I don't know
how that would change fundamentally people's perspective. Outside of a
scenario where Ohio State really just gets handled, which would
be a shock to the census, that would be a
bucket of cold water to the face. If Indiana did

(42:55):
to them what they did to Oregon, that would mess
with my mind. I don't see that happening. But outside
of that happening, the outcome of this game, they're still
going to be probably number one and number two in
whichever order the game dictates. Comes selection Sunday, and the
loser gets to taste their blood and gets to try

(43:16):
to do what Ohio State did last year. It could
be Ohio State doing what Ohio State did last year.
It could be Indiana trying to package up the Ohio
State model from last year. So yeah, sorry, lot of
texts coming into that, a lot of people really really
upset with the playoff rankings and some other stuff's going
on too. It's a big week around here. Jesse Live

(43:37):
subscription counter right quick, Hey, we're forty we're thirty five
away now. Jesse, who is technically the producer of the show,
has tried to make a call in my ear, and
he thinks that we should just maintain the counter here.
But I don't know how quickly we can get thirty subs, Jesse,

(43:59):
is it really moving that quick? You do think it's
moving that quick? Okay, So Jesse thinks that I should
just fill the buster here live at seven forty three
pm Central Time on Tuesday, December second, my mother's birthday.
By the way, Happy birthday to one Tricia Pate watching
in west central Georgia. So if you don't subscribe for us,
you should subscribe for her. I'm sure that's what she
would want. I'm talking like she is no longer with us.

(44:22):
She's still very much with us, but I'm sure that's
what she would want. Anyway, if you're watching live, that
is our live subscriber count. And we were at four
nine nine nine seven one right now. I don't know, Jesse,
it's moving a little too slow for my taste. All right,
There goes us five. Just like that. I think what
we can do is I could just get my papers

(44:43):
in order. Here there go fourteen more Okay, so I
can tell you, for instance, they're watching in San Juan,
Puerto Rico, they're watching in Gary, Indiana, they're watching in Joplin, Missouri.
One more look at that. Look at that. Womstill monngst
us would have thought that five hundred thousand subscribers would

(45:04):
happen while we were live on air, we would. So
I got to take this opportunity to say thank you
to you guys. There are a lot of really special
things happening with our show right now, a lot of
things that candidly, I don't want to get into people
hating on stuff for people, doubt and stuff. But there
were people within the last decade that thought it was

(45:24):
one of the most foolish things in the world to
leave certainty to tread into uncertain waters, and that being
trying to make a living in digital media, in alternative media,
especially if you're just going to go talk about college football. Now.
The reason that I was so steadfast that this would
work was because I am one of you guys. I

(45:46):
am of the college football diehard audience, and I knew
I wasn't being served. I looked around on radio, on TV.
I didn't really have what I wanted, and I knew
I wasn't alone. All my buddies felt the same way.
So let's go do it. Let's stop instead of complaining
about it, Let's go offer it. The market offers us
the ability to do that. Now, overhead and distribution are

(46:08):
not barriers anymore. And so now if you think you
got what it takes, go try your hand at podcasting,
Go try your hand on YouTube. And we did. And man,
the show has exploded to the point where we get
to call our shots, we get to own our ip,
we get to own the show. And I say we
intentionally because it's not me, it's the staff. It's you,
guys though your show. We don't exist without you. So

(46:32):
I know some people say that sometimes calls the teleprompter
tells them to say it. We don't own a teleprompter.
So I appreciate you guys. Man, we got a lot
of special stuff happening right now. We've had some pretty
big meetings lately that are directly tied to the success
of this show. That's just numerical evidence of it, but
the evidence is all around. So you let us do

(46:54):
what we love to do for a living. I really
appreciate it, and in turn, we get to deliver to
you exactly what you want, which is sort of a
college football show that's free of like any kind of
corporate interference. No one ever walks in and dictates what
we have to say. There is no league that we
have to have allegiance to or network that we have

(47:15):
to have allegiance to. I mean, we got great partnerships,
but it's our show, and you guys have made sure
that it can remain that way. And to anyone out
there that is toying with the idea of doing this
and may be intimidated because the market's too saturated, market's
not too saturated. If you love what you do and

(47:35):
you can dedicate yourself to it and you have a
minimum baseline of God given ability, talent is very overrated.
Actually in this case, if you just got the minimum,
just go do it. You can actually change your life
in the process. I know, because you've helped me change
mind and changed the staffs. And look, I know that's
a really, really lofty number. I will tell you we

(47:56):
have only just begun on that front. Can really fundamentally
alter the way that the way college football is discussed
and covered, because that's in the process of happening. Now, okay,
let's get back to it. Did not plan on that
happening live on air. Follow up to that, we got
to figure out how to properly celebrate that. So I
am now open to suggestions. However we're going to do it?

(48:18):
What do we do? I can't shave my head, I
can't go Will Compton, I'm already there. So what do
we do? The floor is open, No rush, no rush,
floor is open, as we are well on our way
to a million subs at this point, Mark Stoops has
been fired at Kentucky. Will Stein has been hired at Kentucky.

(48:40):
Life comes at you really, really fast, as it turns out.
So two years ago, you may remember, Mark Stoops was
the head coach of Kentucky. Jimbo Fishers fired at Texas
A and M. There were a lot of rumors and
speculation that Texas A and M was targeting Mark Stoops
because they were and there was sort of an agreement
in principle, and then Mark Stoops started to pack his

(49:01):
bags and in the meantime, the forums and the message
boards and talk radio just blew up, and Texas A
and M fans basically revolted and basically said no, no,
And the A and M administration was like, what do
you mean, No, You're not going to hire him, and
if you do, you will pay the price and don't
even make us back up our words on that, because

(49:23):
we will deliver. So it fell through, and then there
were various takes out there to varying degrees of egregiousness.
Are a good close personal acquaintance, not friend, but acquaintance.
Brandon Walker, for example, took to the internet two years
ago one of many great takes he's had. He said,
if Texas A and M fans really strong armed their

(49:44):
school into not hiring Mark Stoops, we have a new
dumbest fan base in America, more concerned with winning the
press conference than winning games. Mark Stoops, since that tweet,
nine to fifteen out of a job, Texas A and M.
Since that tweet, They're in the playoff, aren't they, Jesse.
So it turns out you can win the press conference

(50:05):
and win games. Yeah. So will Stein? Hoopst is will Stein?
Some of you may be asking, well, he is the
Oregon offensive coordinator. Really sharp guy. I love the idea
of Kentucky going after will Stein now and now until
eternity when a new coach is hired. I am ripping
Tom Fornelli's quote, it's a great hire. I have no

(50:29):
idea if it will work out. I do love the
concept of it, though, and the concept is stop trying
to find a sure thing. Stop trying to find a
guy that's already an established winner as a head coach,
be cause they aren't really out there. And if they
are out there, respectfully, it's Kentucky. You're probably not landing them.
You got to go land the next guy. Well, Josh,

(50:51):
what if they hit a home run and will Stein
wins a lot, Well, worry about retaining him later, but
go get a guy who can win first. I got
to tell you I've sat in will Stein's offensive meetings
within the last month. Even in fact, so has Savannah State.
We were out there for the USC game, and I mean,

(51:12):
Dan's really great about access there as long as you
keep your mouth shut, And so I took a blood
oath that I wouldn't report anything back directly, but I
also went and set in on will Stein's offensive meetings,
and Savannah State leans over to me, Yes, yes, my
wife is in the offensive meetings with me as well.
She leans over and asks, who is that? I said,
that's will Stein, She goes, he sounds like a head coach.

(51:36):
Well less than a month later, he is an sec
head coach. Runs a good meeting, obviously runs a good offense.
How prepared does the room feel? Is always what I compare.
Does there go a lot of these places? I get
to sit in that kind of setting A lot like
how prepared does the room feel? How much are they
echoing back to you what you're saying to them? It

(51:57):
doesn't matter what you know if you can't put it
in their head, and if what's in their heads doesn't
come out on the field, it can be the smartest
football savant known to man. It doesn't matter. Will Stein's
really good at knowing the game, calling the game, coaching
the game. But then his player is executing the game
at a high level. And the other thing that stands
out about will Stein's offense and being in his meeting

(52:21):
rooms is how readily those quarterbacks could finish his sentences
for him. They just know the system, so he knows it,
and what he knows is in them. So it's not
a guarantee of anything. I'm just giving you an observation
dude is really sharp offensively, and his team plays accordingly.
It'll come down to the same things for him. At

(52:42):
Kentucky it comes down to for anyone else, do you
have the necessary support? We'll see can you recruit the South?
Are you given the resources to recruit the South? Especially
at Kentucky where you're probably not gonna swing, you know,
shot for shot with the Georgias or Alabamas or tech
that says, can you place a premium on premium on

(53:03):
evaluation and on development, sort of what Elko did at
Duke not to you know, apples to apples, compare the programs.
But that'll matter a lot here. But at least they
took a swing. I respect Kentucky for taking a swing.
I know a lot of people looked at him and said, dude,
you're about to pay Mark Stoop's thirty seven million dollars
not to coach. And by the way, that thirty seven

(53:24):
million dollars is due within what Jesse sixty days, Yet
they don't get to spread it out over several years. Kentucky.
People say, it just means more, It just costs more.
I know that. So best of luck to will Stein.
We may even venture up there. For the Speaker series
this spring. So I'm sorry, it's a crazy time right now,

(53:50):
and we're about to talk about something on the show,
and I just want to make sure nothing's happened on
this front, Jesse. I mean, you know what we're about
to talk about. Has anything happened that I should know
about on a certain coaching search? I don't think so.
H always getting ready. He's so depressed. It's not funny.

(54:11):
It's not funny. Would you say, Jess, you say something
about merch? Yeah? Okay, before we depress everyone with the
latest on the Penn State coaching search. Hey, it's Christmas season.
Look at those beautiful sweaters over at the paint State
store paytstatematerial dot com. Especially if you need to shop,
and judging by your Christmas list, I know you do.

(54:34):
You may be a wayward mother that has accidentally stumbled
onto the channel because your son subscribed you to it
unbeknownst to you. Don't unsubscribe, and number two, get him
a Christmas sweater. Look at tis the season to be chuggy.
Where could you go wrong with that? Those things have
been flying off the virtual shelves at the payt State
store paytstatematerial dot Com. Appreciate you guys. Okay, all right,

(54:57):
it's it's about to get really somber. For first second,
the Penn State coaching search is a disaster. I'll say
it now. My Penn State brethren are saying it, even
if they have never agreed with me on who they
should hire, nor have they agreed with me on whether
they should have fired. James Franklin and know and Matt
Campbell are the two fill ins to the blanks there.

(55:18):
The latest in this saga is that Kilani Sitaki is
going to remain at Brigham Young. Since we last spoke,
Penn State made a serious run at him, and I
thought we'd hear his name sooner, but we didn't. And
now it doesn't matter because he's going to remain at
Brigham Young and they're going on to play in their
conference championship game Saturday. There were a lot of questions

(55:39):
about how good a fit he would be fit as
a very overrated term in coaching searches, but I digress, well,
moot point. So that makes like twenty seven names that
Penn State has struck out on really an inexcusable spot
for Penn State to be on. Let's rewind it for
a second. Let's just remember where we are. I know
a lot of Penn State fans are watching, and like

(55:59):
we I don't want to listen to this rehashed what's
going to take thirty seconds. But for those of you
who are just kind of observing this from a distance
and you're in the weeds on it and you're so
zoned in, zoom out. They fired James Franklin before almost
anyone else fired their head coach this year. The reason
was so they could get a jump start on a
coaching search. Why, because the calendar is different now. Signing

(56:24):
day is tomorrow, it's the first Wednesday in December, and
the portal season opens in early January, and so we've
got to have a coach in place. That's the entire reason.
You fire a guy that otherwise was winning nine plus
games per year. It's not good enough for us anymore.
All right, that's great, except that you had no idea
who you could go get. Well, Josh, you can't know

(56:46):
who's available to you until you fire your coach and
you go out on the market. No, no, no, no no.
We can't know who's available to Penn State until they
fire James Franklin and go hire a replacement, you better
be about ninety eight percent sure if you're the athletic
director or else, you have screwed your program and it's
totally inexcusable. And at that point, if you fire James Franklin, again,

(57:09):
not terrible by any stretch. The guy was in the
semi finals like eight months prior. But he's not good
enough for you. You fire him, and you know you
can go get Marcus Freeman or Mike Elko or Kaylin
debor fine, tough love, tough business. Go do it. But
if you're firing him out this window, you're saying goodbye,

(57:29):
and out that window you see nothing but fog. You
might want to have him stick around until the fog
clears up a little bit. But Pat Craft didn't do that.
And if you don't have certainty that you can upgrade
from your current situation, but you hit flush on your
current situation anyway, you're probably not equipped to be the
athletic director of a major program. Just calling it like

(57:49):
it is. I got nothing against Pat Craft, I'm just
what else is in your job description? At that point,
the football program at Penn State by ten Miles matters
more than anything else he does, and it's in a
state of disrepair right now. Do you understand Signing day
is tomorrow and they've got the one hundred and twenty
eighth RANC class in the country. They're in a situation

(58:11):
right now where whoever they sign is. I kid, you
not gonna have to try and do what Barry Odom
did at Purdue or what rich Rod did at West Virginia.
Just portal in sixty guys so they can have a
competitive team next year. That's not even to mention the
mid to long term rebuild of the roster. And meanwhile,
I look down the road, Virginia Tech could not have

(58:35):
gotten a better Christmas present than Pat Craft delivered to them.
I'm not saying that Pat Craft is a sleeper agent
for Virginia Tech. What I am saying is if Virginia
Tech had planted Pat Craft in State College Pennsylvania to
do their bidding, he wouldn't have done much different than
he's done. He fired a top fifteen caliber head coach

(58:56):
early enough in the season where Virginia Tech could go
get him. I have him in place, have a top
thirty recruiting class, probably better than that after they wrap
it up tomorrow and you went and got a playoff
caliber head coach, you massively upgraded, You got delivered to
you a top fifteen head coach at a program that's
not a top thirty program. And it's because the other

(59:18):
guy's voluntarily dumped him with no certain answer. I cannot
believe Penn State finds themselves here. Like we debated internally tonight,
should we have fun with this? Should we do the
Sarahmonclaughlin's special music, And we were gonna do it, and
I said no because I like Penn State a lot
as a program. So I actually don't want to make

(59:38):
light of it because it's really not a joke. It is,
but it isn't. It's actually really serious because there's no
reason why Penn State football should be in this position.
You could come to me and say, well, this job
is not the caliber of Ohio State or Michigan or Oregon. Okay,
I'm fine with that. I can promise you it's better
than it's being treated. Promise you it's better than it

(01:00:01):
is perceived in the marketplace right now. And the other
thing that aggravates me about this is you've got a
guy I'm gonna hammer this again. I really couldn't care
less who it pisses off. Matt Campbell is just sitting
in ames, Iowa. And I mentioned his name a month ago,
and a lot of you turned your nose up at him. Okay, well,
how do you feel now because you chased unicorns for

(01:00:21):
a while that you had little to no shot at
getting even if you had a competent athletic director. And
then you chased the backup options to the unicorns. And
they also told you know, and meanwhile, the guy who
in the one hundred and thirty four year history of
Iowa State football is in the midst of the best
three year run in program history, that's just sitting there,
has not gotten a look. And I had a couple

(01:00:43):
of you say, well, hey, man, if Matt Campbell's so great,
then whyhattan he gotten offers before he has? Tennessee was there,
Florida State was there, the Detroit Lions were there. You
don't know it because he doesn't push to publicize it.
Dudes had a ton of big time offers in his
lap in the past, not the cycle in the DAN Again.

(01:01:04):
It boggles my mind. Sometimes athletic directors have their affairs
in order, and I look at a situation and I
don't understand it. But just because I don't understand it
doesn't mean it doesn't make sense. This one is one
I don't understand because the guy at the center of
it doesn't understand. So I don't know if I don't

(01:01:25):
know if Pat Kraft's gonna have his job much longer,
Like I legitimately look at it, it's that disastrous. I know.
If you're not following this coaching search day to day.
You are listening to me right now saying that's way
too harsh, dude. You're you're trying to You're trying to
rage bait with this. We're all the other terms engagement, farm,
click bait. You're just trying to hot take your way

(01:01:46):
through this. No, I'm not, I promise you I'm not.
If you get closer to the situation, you really start
to feel the gravity of the situation. It really is
that bad. So I don't know where it's gonna go.
I don't know where it's going to go. Like I
don't know if Bob Chesney has signed his deal at UCLA.

(01:02:06):
I don't Jeff Brahm, like these are just some of
the names being thrown around. Brian Dable is out there.
I don't know, I don't know. I do know this
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(01:02:26):
pricing right now. Academy has been a long term partner
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If you can't get their in person. A lot of
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(01:02:46):
dot Com. Grills, canopies, late late tailgating purchases. Perhaps, yes,
it could all be done there. We still got more
games to predict. Jesse wow ooh, Big one here, Big
twelve Championship game Saturday noon kickoff on ABC Texas Tech.
Brigham Young rumors that Joe Tess is on the call here,

(01:03:06):
so expect many things, Probably not a blowout, though. Kalani
Sitaki has re upped with Brigham Young, so he's staying.
Joey McGuire a new contract. He's staying. And before we
even dive into the matchup, you know you got two
brilliant head coaches here. So Taki's doing things rarely seen

(01:03:26):
in Provo Utah. Of course, Joey McGuire and company are
putting together a historic season in Lubbock, Texas. And yet
despite all that, good close friend of the program and
noted college football savant Joey McGuire chose to share some
of his wisdom with the college football public earlier this week.
Don't take my word for it. Roll at Bradley.

Speaker 2 (01:03:47):
Yeah, I think I think he's really important people that
understand football as a whole, you know, I think no
matter what you know, I think Josh Pate does a
great job. I think he's a guy. I wouldn't be
mad if he was the commissioner of college football.

Speaker 1 (01:04:02):
I know he would take.

Speaker 2 (01:04:03):
The job and do a great job.

Speaker 1 (01:04:05):
And what started as a joke is becoming very serious,
isn't it. Hey, who flips what in this game? We
were at this game and love it when it happened.
It was a great environment but it wasn't a very
competitive game. Twenty nine to seven was the final. So
I mean, you know, the most boiler plate logic imaginable
here is, well, if it plays like that again, I

(01:04:27):
may be tuning out by halftime. Okay, So if it doesn't,
what has to flip? Well, a couple of things have
to flip. For Brigham Young. They need to find a
much more competent ground game than they had the first
time around, because twenty seven carries for sixty yards for
Brigham Young is not going to get the job done.
They also need to re establish their dominance and turnover margin.

(01:04:49):
They were minus three in this game, and yet they're
number seven nationally in turnover margin on the year. The
problem is Texas Tech is fourth, so neither of them
are very prone to giving the ball away. It's just
that when they played the first time, one of them
certainly had the edge. It was the home team for
Texas Tech. See here's the funny thing about the first game,

(01:05:10):
big margin of victory, it actually could have been much worse.
Texas Tech kicked half a million field goals. They had
five field goals from inside the Brigham Young thirty. I
think three of them were in the red zone, we counted,
so they couldn't finish drives, and they're eighty ninth in
red zone touchdown percentage, so that's been a little bit
of an issue with them. But the point is, with

(01:05:31):
those issues, they still won going away. Flip even one,
if not two of those field goals into touchdowns, and
it is a huge, like blowout victory for Texas Tech.
So Brigham Young has played their best ball as of late.
I fully believe that. I fully believe they are the
best version of themselves right now. I do believe they're

(01:05:51):
a better team than they were when these two played
the first time around. Texas Tech probably is two. So
the final well, you know, the final feel kind of
comes down to how have they been lately, Like they've
won their past three by double digits. They need to

(01:06:11):
flip turnover Okay, Like I'm trying to visualize why I'm
looking off and up to the left, like I try
and visualize how it would happen, how the upset would happen.
I think the way the game would have to feel
stylistically is turnover margin has to be flipped, and that
needs to happen early so that Texas Tech doesn't grab
an early lead because Texas Tech grabs these games early

(01:06:32):
and they're over They're one of the best first half
offenses in the country. They're number three and first half
points per game, they're number two in first half pass
yards per game, number one in the country in first
half explosive passes of twenty five plus yards, So you
can't let that happen. Greatly helps if you do what
Michigan did against Ohio State last week, get yourself an
early turnover, but capitalize on it, and then they just

(01:06:56):
kind of need to ride the revenge wave. They basically
just need to show a version of themselves that proves
the gap is not quite as big as it looked
the first time around. There is a fairly sizable talent
edge here from Texas Tech, but you can overcome that,
Like there are ways bringing me on has done this
a long time, so there are ways you can overcome that.

(01:07:17):
What I'm trying to overcome is instinct versus eyeballs. My
instinct generically in a matchup like this is okay. If
we had a match up early in the season, one
team did get blown out, but it's cause they were
minus three turnovers and they're gonna get another shot. Oh,
by the way, their head coach just re upped contractually

(01:07:38):
after he flirted with leaving for a hot minute, and
they get another shot. Like, I'm riding with that team
at the very least, I'm taking the points. But I
remember watching the game, and I remember telling myself leaving
Lubbock that day, if these teams play again, just remember
as dominant as this was, it could have been worse.
And the next time they will play would be in Arlington, Texas.

(01:08:00):
And that turf's not going to slow Texas Tech down
any I can't get over that. I really can't get
over that. The model can, though, So let me show
you something right quick. At FanDuel, Texas Tech is minus
twelve and a half. The paid state model has Texas
Tech minus eight. Brigham Young is a huge lean, like
best bet type of stuff. And because I'm not betting

(01:08:24):
the game, I am feeling willing to outright challenge the
model on this. The model historically has been really low
on Brigham Young. Well now it's way high on Brigham Young.
I actually believe that the gap is bigger than the
model does. I'm going to take Texas Tech to win
and cover and if they do, look, I think we're

(01:08:45):
looking at them possibly locking down a first round by
I do believe, and there's been some argument and some
debate out there about that. I do think you got
Ohio State in Indiana one to two in any order.
I think the SEC champ is going to be in there,
and then I think Texas Tech if they win, will
be the fourth team. And by the way, if they
do win, also think about what that does downstream in

(01:09:08):
the playoff rankings. That probably maybe bumps Brigham Young out
from between Miami and Notre Dame, which then potentially triggers
our ACC doomsday scenario of Duke winning the ACC, not
being ranked high enough to get in the playoff, and
the committee sitting there on selection Sunday saying are we
gonna put Miami in? Or are we gonna say no

(01:09:29):
to the entire ACC butterfly effect. Man, it's out there.
You may think there aren't many things that could change
this Saturday. Yeah, there are. I have an itch on
the edge of my nose. I don't know what it is.
It's not what the haters will say. It is drug free.
The only way to be over here, kids. I am
a graduate of the Dare program at New Mountain Hill Elementary.

(01:09:52):
So I've never done a drug in my life. I
wouldn't even know where to get them. I'm sure the
live chat would, but I wouldn't even know where to
get them. So it's just a good old fashion knows.
Although there is a suspicious amount of energy on the
show tonight, but it's not because of that. Okay, JP
pole week fifteen. It has dropped fifteen weeks. I have

(01:10:12):
told you these are not rankings. These are power ratings.
But I especially need to tell you because the playoff
rankings are out right now. The order you're about to
see these teams in, in no shape, form or fashion,
is reflective of how I think the rankings should look.
I can't stress that enough. There are two very very
glaring examples here of why I can't stress that enough.

(01:10:35):
All this is I'm about to show you is the
model data spat out in the order of who it
would favor against two on a neutral field. Have we
been clear? I think we've been clear all year. Let's
take a look. Missouri is there at number twenty. Eli
Drinkwitz will be relieved to know that he finished the
season in the top twenty of the JP Pole and frankly,

(01:10:56):
I don't know what more he could ask for a
few more wins. But outside of that, let's not be selfish. Okay,
got your contract extended, You're making half a billion dollars
a year, and you're a top twenty JP Pole team.
Merry Christmas. Penn State is at nineteen. I want to
pause here for a second. Obviously Penn State's not ranked
in the top twenty north should they be? But power
ratings wise, and I have confirmed this with FanDuel, this

(01:11:19):
is worth the paper pop. No matter who wins the
ACC Championship game Saturday, whether it's Duke or whether it's Virginia,
FanDuel would favor Penn State by more than a field
goal over either one of those teams. Do with that
whatever you will. Iowa number eighteen. Tennessee stayed at seventeen,

(01:11:41):
Brigham Young's at sixteen. I'm telling you, man, you look
at that and you think, oh, bring him young man.
They're only sixteenth. It's a huge deal for them to
be this high because their talent roster doesn't compare with
some of these other teams. Just like Indiana. I'll show you.
I'll just go ahead and spoiler alert it for you.
They're all the way at number two. It's a huge

(01:12:01):
deal that these non blue blood, non perennial top five,
top ten recruiting teams are this high. It's also a
little reflection of where the sport is right now, a
little bit of the flattening of the sport. Let's go
top fifteen, USC at number fifteen, Lincoln Riley, there you go,
stood up on the podium there held the sword in

(01:12:21):
his hand, led the band, number fifteen in the jpee pole.
Vandy at number fourteen. Really kind of similar to where
they are in the college football playoff rankings. Utah thirteen,
o U twelve, Miami's eleven. All right, look at who's
number ten. Texas is number ten. This is where I
need to stop for a second, and I need to
remind everyone at least one more time. This in no

(01:12:44):
way is reflective of what I think the rankings should
look like, because I don't think Texas should be number
ten in the rankings. But from a power ratings standpoint,
they absolutely would be favored against Brigham Young or who else.
Jesse certainly against either of the ACC teams. They be
favored by half a mile against the G five teams.
So yes, Texas still respected by the odds makers know

(01:13:11):
that shouldn't matter when it comes to fielding the playoff.
Texas Tech is number nine, Alabama's number eight, Ole Mess seven,
Notre Dame six. So the model has been high on
Notre Dame all year. We have never had Notre Dame
I think outside of the top eight or so maybe nine.
And that's even when they were zero and two. So

(01:13:31):
I mean, model's been rock steady on Notre Dame all year.
Top five, Oregon at five A and M at four.
I'm gonna pull something up on the laptop here right quick.
Georgia's three, Indiana's two. They did flip Indiana and Georgia
and Ohio State's one, just to give you an idea
of the gap between these teams right now. It will

(01:13:52):
not shock you to learn that Ohio State is they
have re established the gap between themselves and Indiana. There
is right about a four point four and a half
point gap, which is reflected perfectly in the FanDuel odds
this week. But with Georgia at about another point there
and then you go down to Texas A and M

(01:14:14):
at about another two points, and then the gap between
Oregon right now and Ohio State would be eight and
a half points according to the model. So again, make
of that what you will. The gap between Ohio State
at number one and let's just say Missouri fairly sizable,

(01:14:35):
like sixteen points, fifteen points something like that. And as
soon as I put that number out, I think I'd
get a lot of action on Ohio State minus. You
could do that in Missouri right now. You know Missouri
breaking news. FanDuel is live in Missouri. Now. I offered
you guys special offer all the back half of last month.

(01:14:56):
I told you go sign up Advanced in Missouri and
come December first, you can bet five dollars and get
four hundred in bonus bets. Well, that came and went.
That's the bad news. The good news is if you
live there in Missouri and you're just now ready to
sign up, that's okay. I can still get you a
bunch of free money. I just can't get you four hundred.

(01:15:18):
What I can do if you bet five dollars is
get you three hundred dollars in bonus bets. Now, the
other good bit of news is it doesn't even matter
if your five dollars bet wins or loses, you still
get the three hundred in bonus bets. Best I can do,
Best I Can do. The exclusive odds provider of Payte
State they will be on hand there for our live

(01:15:40):
show down in Atlanta Thursday night.

Speaker 3 (01:15:42):
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(01:16:04):
slash RG call one eight eight eight seven eight nine
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seven seven eight Hope n Y or text Hope n

(01:16:25):
y in New York.

Speaker 1 (01:16:26):
I wanted to hit one last thing. A couple of you,
and by a couple, I mean like fifty of you
asked about this. Hold on a second lipbom uh. So
Blaine from Hattiesburg, Mississippi hit us up. He said, do
you agree with Cole's take? I assume kublic that Kiff
and quit on Ole. Miss You may be wondering what

(01:16:50):
take is he talking about, So I'm gonna play it
for you. I think this is from mcelroyan Kublick, which
is a radio show I listened to every morning. By
the way, it's it's local in Birmingham, but really it's
a national college football show. So this was a couple
of days ago. Kublick just woke up in an ordinary
mood and decided to go off on poor, innocent, defenseless

(01:17:13):
Lane Kiffin. Let's take a listen.

Speaker 4 (01:17:15):
You don't leave your team before you're going to the playoffs,
like it's you can't do it, man like you tell LSU.
I'm sorry and I hate it. I wanted to be
your head coach. You tell Florida, I would love to
coach the Gators man like it. It would be so cool.
To run out there in the swamp and lead that
team out there and like do what Spurrier did and
do what Urban did and like be the next guy there.

(01:17:36):
But you know what, I can't do it right now.
I can't wait.

Speaker 1 (01:17:46):
That too.

Speaker 4 (01:17:48):
Like it's like like you're trying to force your You're
trying to force your leverage on old miss. Why don't
you force your leverage on.

Speaker 1 (01:17:54):
Lsu Yep, yup, yup. I don't disagree with anything that
they said there. I haven't disagreed with most any opinion
that's been offered on this. It's really one of those
classic college football conundrums, if you will, because I think
everyone's kind of right. You could come at me and

(01:18:15):
say Lane Kiffin one hundred percent should have taken that
job any way he wants to, if he wanted it,
and I'm like, yeah, that is his right. And then
Cuberlic could come in, backed by Michaelroy, and say, you
know what, he quit on his team at Yep, he
sure it did. And then someone else could say, well,
they wouldn't let him coach his team in the playoff,

(01:18:35):
that's correct, And then someone else could say, well, you
know there was one surefire way that he could have
coached the team in the playoff, stay at old mess yup.
All this stuff I agree with, and then someone else
could come in and say, eh, the calendar is a mess.
It's a shame that anyone has to deal with this. Yep,
that's also accurate. And then someone else could come in

(01:18:56):
and say, stop making the calendar the scapegoat. These are
adults making tens of millions of dollars. They ought to
be man enough to stand by their word, and I'm like, yup,
that's valid. I don't disagree with any of this. I
don't really know how to feel because normally there's a
very very clear side. It's not normally this gray. Normally

(01:19:18):
it's pretty white and black. I will say this though.
All right, So they said something at the end there
that I don't think was feasible, Like he said, you
shouldn't have quit on your team, like you should have
just seen it through. Now, what you could have done
paraphrasing here is he said you could have just waited
and told Lsu, I'm gonna see my season through, then

(01:19:41):
I'll take your job. And he said, kind of if
you wanted it bad enough. McElroy said, you know, if
they wanted you bad enough, they'd be willing to wait. Well, yeah,
ls you would have been willing to wait even today.
LSU would have no problem with him going to coach
the playoff. Of course they would have no problem with it.
It's the old Miss side that had the problem with it,
and it was never gonna happen that way. It sounds reasonable,

(01:20:06):
but practically it couldn't happen that way. Think through that
for a second. The LSU job's vacant. You know, a
bunch of people want the job, and yet you mysteriously
go well into December and you haven't filled the job
like Penn State right now, imagine if that was LSU.
No one would call LSU desperate. They would know they're

(01:20:26):
waiting on someone, and they would know who someone it is.
They would know it's Lane Kiffin, and ole Miss is
not stupid, so they'd know it too. And Ole Miss
will say no, no, no, no, no, no, no no no.
Tell you what if it's not you sign this contract,
sign this piece of paper we're putting in front of you.
And if Lane Kiffin said no, then you suspend him
with pay. But you're not letting him ride it out

(01:20:48):
there while all the while, for all you know, recruiting
half your roster away. You're not doing that. You're not stupid.
It's just semantics at that point, okay, whether whether the
LSU job has been offered to him or not, or
or whether he is seeing the season through. That wasn't
gonna happen. And the other thing you could have done
if you wanted to make that happen, the only thing

(01:21:09):
you could have done, actually is retained Brian Kelly. That's
the only thing you could have done. You could have
retained Brian Kelly, run a very very air tight, super
secret back channel coaching search where you let it be
known to Lane Kiffen and his reps, our job's gonna
come open. It's gonna come open after your season ends,

(01:21:31):
whenever that is, and if that needs to be in January.
We'll hold on to Brian Kelly through January. Therefore we'll
be able to lock down a recruiting class. If we
need to go all the way through the portal window,
we'll go through the portal window, and then when your
season ends, we'll fire him and we'll hire you. That's

(01:21:52):
the way it could have happened, but it didn't. Happen
that way. So the moment Brian Kelly was fired, there
was no world, no matter how you spread the ice
over the cake, where Lane Kiffin was going to be
able to finish his season at Ole Miss, including the playoffs,
and still take the LSU job. If the current situation
is as is, it just becomes obvious what's happening. So like, yes,

(01:22:14):
of course, in a perfect world you could have seen
it through, and in a realistic world, LS you would
have loved that Ole Miss was never going to allow that.
So if you think he quit on his team, it's
because he did. He did quit on his team. And
if you think that's unethical or that's hypocritical, it's cause
it is at least hypocritical, if not unethical. And if

(01:22:34):
you think that a disproportionate amount of criticism has been
slung towards Lane Kiffin when people like John summerl are
also in this position, that's true. It's because Kifin's a
much bigger name and he handled it way differently than
John did. And if you're of the opinion that, well, hey,
he's an adult, he can make any decision he wants,
you're absolutely right. And if you think the LSU is
a better job, and you should take it whenever it's offered.

(01:22:56):
That's fine for you to feel that. My point is
you can feel any way you want to about it.
Doesn't matter how you feel about it, nor does it
matter how I feel about it. It matters how Lane Kiffen felt.
And we know the answer to that. But I get
it's all going to come down to your personal preference,
sort of your personal college football worldview. That's what it's
going to come down to. And we know Cole kublicks.
And on a slightly related note, we will have him

(01:23:19):
on the show Thursday. Maybe will zoom Lane in as well.
Just a nice little three box and Lane's I'm told
he's pretty busy right now. We appreciate you, guys, man.
We're almost a five hundred and one thousand subs now.
We appreciate you so much. I mean, did not wake
up this morning thinking that we were going to hit
five hundred k on air tonight. I thought it would

(01:23:39):
be tomorrow before we did. But the audience always delivers.
Are are people always delivered? They have never not delivered.
So it's a big week for us. I can't give
you all the details right now, there's just a lot
going on. I mean, above and beyond this number next
to my head, there's a lot going on. Time in spring,

(01:24:01):
I'll probably be able to just tell the full story
of all the wheels in motion behind the scenes. And
I know you hear this from me about every six months.
That's caused great stuff keeps happening to us about every
six months or so. So look, before you start to worry,
nothing's happening with the show. Show's not going anywhere, show's
not changing, nothing, nothing, nothing, nothing. It's just we got

(01:24:23):
incredible opportunities coming our way. One of those is our
live show this Friday night. Tickets on sale paytstatemterial dot com.
I'm telling you another really really really big one that's
coming Saturday, and when I get the go ahead to
announce that, I will. But it has to do with
the SEC Championship game and we're really looking forward to it.

(01:24:43):
And then there are several other things in motion as well.
So happy but also focus for director Bradley, for producer Jesse.
We will be back Thursday, probably about an hour earlier.
In other words, at the same time we've been doing
the Thursday show until then. Take care Hey God.

Speaker 3 (01:25:02):
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