CFP Rankings Reaction + Rivalry Week Predictions & Coaching Search Intel

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:17):
I told myself I wouldn't do it. I told myself
when we expanded four to twelve in the playoff, I
wanted me to get work done with this stuff. I lied.
I like to fancy myself a truthful person, a truth
teller out here, except when it comes to me talking
to myself, I lied. Unfortunately, or probably fortunately for you guys.
It makes for a very entertaining show. We're jampacked, Hi.

(00:39):
I tape Thankful Downtown Nashville, Tennessee, Tuesday Night, November twenty fifth,
The Are of Our Lord, twenty twenty five, our last
show of the week. Although I am sure news will
break and we'll have individual videos posted as well as
we need to. But initially, like right off the bat tonight,
I got a metric ton of stuff to say about
college football playoff rankings, which is weird because the wasn't

(01:00):
a ton of movement. But there's a ton of mouths
moving that don't need to be moving because they don't
know what they're talking about. Couldn't be me, couldn't be us? Right,
Rivalry week is upon us. We've got predictions. Also, since
we're not gonna have a Thursday show, we do what's
become the most popular segment that we do every week,
which is Upset Alerts. It's all in tonight show. It's
the most jam packed show of the modern era. Of

(01:22):
the week coaching searches. I'm not gonna do one segment
for each I'm just gonna throw everything I have at
you and then we'll see what happens. Oklahoma State has
hired Eric Morris. Today, for example, we're gonna talk a
lot about it. College football playoff predictions. I've got some
slight adjustments to make to my own. We got the
jpeep pole on the show tonight. We could go four hours,
probably won't. We could go four hours. They're watching us

(01:42):
in Tucson, Arizona, New Orleans, Louisiana, Atlanta, Georgia, and Biluxi, Mississippi,
where I have it on good authority, I will be
at some point tomorrow. We're over four hundred and ninety thousand.
We're right on the precipice of five hundred thousand subscribers.
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(02:08):
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(02:28):
I don't want to see that long face anymore. Bradley
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subs for Bradley. Okay, let's dive into the show tonight.
The college football playoff rankings were just released in the
past few minutes, and I don't like it. The rankings
themselves are okay, I'm not a huge fan of some

(02:49):
of the discourse that's starting to tape shape take shape.
You can you can already tell the positioning it start
to happen now before we even dive in. I want
to make sure I remind I'm not a big eyeball
test guy. That includes mine. I have said for a while,
if I was the College Football Playoff commissioner, and I

(03:09):
just solely ran the playoff. One of the first things
I would do is I would define parameters. Why would
I do that? Specifically to let as much of it
play out on the field as possible and to remove
my gut or my eyeball test. And I don't care
if you have or haven't coached the game. Like, here's
what I've always said about former coaches and the eyeball test.

(03:31):
I got supreme respect for guys who have coached this
game and played this game. Why don't any former coaches
go make a living betting football? If it's that easy
to apply the eyeball test and figure out who's better
than who. Why don't you ever hear about former coaches
making a living gambling on football? You notice you never

(03:51):
really hear that. Conversely, you notice how a bunch of
calculator heads could run circles around coaches when it comes
to betting football. So that's one reason, but not the
only reason, that I've always advocated for removing the eyeball
test as much as possible, Define the parameters and then
stick to them. So if you think head to head
matters a lot, good define it and stick to it.

(04:14):
Don't define it and then come time to stick to it,
saying ah, yeah, but my eyeballs are telling me something different. Brother.
If your eyeballs are telling you that there's that big
gap between a couple of teams that already played and
team beat Team A, Team B won't even be in
the ballpark of Team A to begin with if they are,

(04:34):
forget your eyeballs and use your preset parameters. So with
that in mind, the rankings have been released. There they
are on your screen right now. Welcome to the party, Arizona.
We got a ranked matchup going down this weekend Arizona
and Arizona State, which we'll talk about inn upset alerts later.
But here's what I wanted to get to. Okay, the
two loss chaos conundrum scenario, et cetera trademark registered is

(04:58):
still on the table, and that could include Notre Dame
and maybe like an Alabama or Utah or Brigham Young
or Miami or Brigham Young and Texas Tech Vanderbilt, all
these teams Oklahoma could just be sitting there ole miss
two losses. Who knows what the Egg Bowl could bring,
but all these two loss teams could be sitting there.

(05:19):
Obviously we don't have enough room for all of them.
And someone said earlier tonight, well, that puts the committee
in an impossible position. No, it doesn't use your preset criteria,
apply it to the field and pick twelve teams. That's
where I will tell you, by the way, it doesn't
mean tear it down. I want to caution everyone here's
what's about to happen. It's almost an inevitability now that

(05:41):
we're gonna get to the finish line. And it's different
than last year. Last year, the big story going into
that Sunday was are they gonna put SMU in or
are they gonna drop them and put one of the
SEC teams in? That was it. There will be I
think far more drama on Selection Sunday this go round
than there was last year. Now you know that there
are some jackals sneak around the barn out back that

(06:01):
want to expand this playoff, and mark my words, they
will use the drama on Selection Sunday as ammunition in
the barrel to expand the playoff because why well, because
we wouldn't have this mess if we expanded to sixteen.
It's not a mess it's not a mess. This was
my stance when we had a four team playoff. I

(06:21):
never shed any tears for the fifth and sixth and
seventh teams. I always said, I'd rather us have the
size of playoff where maybe we had five and we
couldn't quite fit the last one in, or even in
the twelve team format, I'd rather us have twelven can't
quite fit thirteen and fourteen in. I'd rather have scarcity
creating value in playoff spots than just to continue this

(06:43):
evergreen mentality of oh man, someone's upset, someone's mad, they
got left out of the playoff. What's the answer? Expand it.
It's not the answer. Suck it up and win your
games next year is the answer. I'm saying that generically now,
so we can play my own words back to me
when I'm upset on selection Sunday. It's my whole point,
all right, this is my amy, notre dame mess. If
Miami takes care of business against Pitt, is gonna be

(07:04):
a mess. And I already listened. I listened to Heather Dinisch,
and that I'm not trashing Heather Didnich. Heather Dnich is
reporting what she's being told so I actually appreciate her
articulating this on air, but she already started to set
it up. She already started to pay the runway for
the committee. And that runway sounds a little something like this.
Miami beat Notre Dame early in the year, so they

(07:27):
have played each other. Miami won, and then Miami lost
a couple of games, and so did Notre Dame. But
Notre Dame's got two really really good losses, which is
something I do believe in, by the way, And so
it looked for a while like once Miami lost that
second game, they're gonna fade and that head to head's
not even gonna matter. Well, now Miami has started to
win some games, They've gotten fairly hot down the stretch,

(07:47):
and now that gap between those two teams is shrinking.
And logic just tells you, wait a second, if they
get if they get close enough to be compared to
each other, then doesn't that head to head matter? And
there is a good reason to think that it's in
the committee's stated protocol. And Heather dentwish through thee break

(08:08):
on it tonight and said, hate not so fast, not
so fast. Just because Miami is rising, is like clockwork.
I knew it was coming. Just because Miami's rising doesn't
mean there's some magical threshold past which they get put
into the same comparative pool as Notre Dame. Therefore, the
head to head becomes the trump card. Don't just expect

(08:29):
that what she says, She said, because this committee's eyeballs
told them that Notre Dame's better. There are few things
in life I care less about than the committee's eyeball test.
And I'm going to tell you why, because half of
them are athletic directors, and even the ones in there
who are football coaches should know. Your eyeball test can

(08:50):
come into play when you've got compeams that comparable teams
that haven't played on a field. If they've played on
a field, then we need to value the head to
head result, you know, the spirit of competition, which is
what sports are actually about. And I was listening to
Booger MacFarlane fight the good fight on the ESPN set
earlier tonight, say, guys, it's about a resume, it's not

(09:10):
a beauty pageant. And then some other folks pushed back
on him, and the main pushback will be that game
happened a long time ago, and now there's a big
difference between these teams. Like there are folks out there
who think Notre Dame would just dog walk Miami if
they played today, I'd pick Notre Dame over Miami. That
is irrelevant. Even my opinion on the head to head

(09:30):
is irrelevant, which shows you what I think about the
committee's eyeball test opinion on it. If they're comparable enough,
what I think would happen on a neutral field is irrelevant.
If there really is that big a gap between them,
their resumes won't be comparable. But if their resumes are comparable,
stop overthinking the room on this. They played a football game,

(09:51):
just like we have so much time. It's like these
coaching searches. You figure out who you want to be
your head coach three weeks ago, Well, what are we
gonna do? Just sit here for three weeks. Yeah, if
you figured it out three weeks ago, just sit still.
Just like in this, if you figured out head to
head matters, then make head to head matter. You're already
starting to set the stage here. You're already starting to
set the stage because if you notice Pitt's number twenty two,

(10:17):
Miami gets to go play pitt this weekend. And one
of the other talking points is gonna be, oh, well,
you know what, Notre Dame played Pitt and they smoked
them in Pittsburgh. So if Miami goes up there and
beats Pitt by a bigger margin the Notre Dame, then
we'll talk. I couldn't care less about that. I don't
care if they beat him by fifty or by one.
If they go up there, that is another ranked win

(10:38):
on the resume of Miami. Notre Dame already had their
shot to beat them on the road. They did. That's
baked into Notre Dame's resume. That's why they're nine. Number
twelve now gets to go play number twenty two, and
if they beat them by one or they beat them
by fifty, that is another ranked win on the road
to end the year. It should vault him up above
Brigham Young at at least at number eleven. And at
that point, you're talking about a seven operation of one

(11:01):
spot between these teams that you're trying to convince me
are still so far apart that head to head shouldn't matter.
Are you smoking meth? In no world? Is that how
that should work? And that's including me saying my opinions,
Notre Dame's the better team. It doesn't matter if you've
ever picked one football game wrong, and we all have.

(11:21):
I don't care what your opinion is. I don't care
who you think's better because we watched them play already.
So that's my piece on that next. Alabama is sitting
there at number ten right now. I was listening earlier
tonight to a lot of people speculate that if Alabama
goes and beats Auburn Saturday and they go to the
SEC championship game and lose, boy, are they in danger

(11:42):
of dropping out? Well, if you want to burn the
entire concept to conference championship games down, then yeah, leave
the SEC's runner up out. I also think that an
all state playoff predictor, which I talked about the other night,
painting only like a fifty to fifty five percent chance
that a ten to three Alabama makes the playoff is insanity.

(12:04):
I want you to think this through with me. Forget
about the calculators for a second. Think it through for me.
Bama goes is a tall order now, But if Bama
goes and beats Auburn Saturday, they go to Atlanta, they
won't drop from ten. If anything, they'll be ten or higher.
So they will enter SEC Championship Saturday as an SEC team.

(12:24):
Mind you, which matters knowing they're in the playoff. If
they canceled the SEC Championship game that day, if it
ceased to exist, that team would be in the playoff.
You're telling me that you think there's a world where
because that game, which is a reward that the two
participants earned the right to play in, you're telling me
if that participant, being Alabama, loses, you think that committee

(12:47):
is going to drop them out of the playoff. I
don't see a world where that happens. I couldn't care less. Like,
I literally think Notre Dame would get bumped out of
the playoff before the SEC runner up does. Ole miss
would get bumped out of the PA. I don't care
who it is any of these two lost teams. You say, oh, well,
someone's got to fall out. I know it ain't gonna

(13:09):
be the SEC runner up that falls out. Now if
it's the Big twelve runner up. Like if you're trying
to sell me that a conference champ runner up gets
bumped out, I don't believe in the concept. But if
the concept's gonna happen. It's not gonna be the SEC.
It happens too. So I don't buy that idea at all. Like,
if I saw that happen, you are fundamentally turning the

(13:32):
entire complex on its ear. I mean, I can't even
imagine what the SEC does if they watch that happen.
I can't even imagine what the SEC does. I don't
think it's gonna matter because I think that's a mood point.
Oregon did jump Ole Miss in these rankings. That's gonna
matter for some of your projected seeding. But also one

(13:52):
of the questions that people started to ask today, like
it just dawned on them today, is wait, wait a second,
what happens if Ole Miss loses to Mississippi State. Well,
they may fall out of the playoff. That's what may happen.
They're the lowest ranked Jesse check me on this. They're
the lowest ranked one loss team right aside from Brigham Young.
Yeah okay, so so of the teams that are you know,
big ten SEC caliber, they're the lowest ranked one loss

(14:15):
team already and they're not going to get a big
boost this week. And certainly if you lose. That's a
terrible loss to Mississippi State. And then you know, a
lot of people have been talking about how the committee's
parameters and protocols which they selectively choose to enforce. By
the way, some of those bullet points include the fact
that they can dock you if your you know, key

(14:36):
players go down. I'll Jordan Travis two years ago, or
if coaching changes happen, if Lane leaves after they've lost
the Egg Bowl. Yeah, I think Ole miss may be
a victim there in more ways than one. So just
they need to win. They need to take care of
business this weekend, and Texas Tech is it five right now?
There was some speculation and there's still this. When I'm

(14:58):
looking at some of the projected brackets, a lot of
people project Texas A and M to win the SEC Championship.
So let's say that happens for argument's sake, Like let's
say Ohio State and Indiana play and whoever wins wins,
but they'll both be top four seeds no matter what.
As long as they went out, they'll both be top
four seeds. If A and M plays Alabama and A
and M wins, they're locked in as A top four seed.

(15:22):
But that means you've got a four spot there that's
wide open, and it's either open for an at large
team or it's open for Texas Tech if they win
the Big Twelve championship. Now I'm a believer, and I'll
talk about this later. If that fourth spot is open,
I believe Texas Tech as the Big twelve champ, will

(15:44):
jump up and take that four seed And I think
that goes with a first round by obviously, that's why
it's so important. And then I think it would be
like Georgia and then Oregon and then Ole Miss or
whoever after them. But I do think that there's a world. Now,
some other people disagree with that. Some other people think
the highest Texas Tech is going to go even if
they're a conference champ, is five. And if that four

(16:04):
spot is open, it would be taken by an SEC
at large like a Georgia or maybe even an organ
in the Big ten. I don't believe that, but we'll
see what the committee does, because, as we have already
documented tonight, I don't necessarily see eye to eye with
those guys and girls all hours of the day and night.
Oh Jesse, Jesse just popped in the earpiece right there

(16:25):
and said he texted me, Aha, very important information here.
Fresh from the eye Josh, Fresh from fan duel. Courtesy
of the eye Josh, we have projected first round spreads
for the first round games. Here we go Tu Lane
at Texas Tech, Texas Tech minus twenty one and a half,

(16:47):
Notre Dame at Oklahoma, Notre Dame minus four at Oklahoma.
This this matchup wouldn't happen, but it's still just great
to look at on a screen. Miami at Oregon minus
seven and a half, Bama at ole Miss is a
pick them. So Texas Tech minus twenty one. In a hook,

(17:08):
I gets too Lane at home, Notre Dame favored by
four in Norman, Oregon minus seven and a half at
home against Miami, and in Oxford, Mississippi, Alabama and Ole
Miss would be a pick them. There you go. You
can drive or fly, but especially for the purpi plural
purpose of this read, I would assume you would like

(17:28):
to drive in order to fuel up with Quick Trip.
Quick Trip. I uh, well, I've been in a relationship
with Quick Trip, not an open relationship because we're very
monogamous together, but I've been open about our relationship for
the better part of two years. Now. Things are going great.
Things are going great. We've advanced to the point where

(17:50):
we just hand out free gas cards to everyone, like
we are very very celebratory about our partnership with Quick Trip,
and I have it on pretty good authority that Qui
till have heavy involvement with our live show next Friday.
And there are only so many things that could mean.
Most of the time, it means free stuff. So cole
Brew on tap, they've got it, gasoline outside obviously, they've

(18:13):
got it. Yum yums, which is Memaw code for snacks.
They've got that straight up food. They've got that too.
Don't be fooled. Very few things in a Quick Trip
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on your way, and they're fueling us obviously. Down to Auburn, Alabama,
the Faaldon't Lie Tour, making its final regular season stop
this Saturday Jurdenhair Stadium. The Auburn t shirt for the

(18:38):
Fauldon't Lie Tour available at Paintstatemterial dot com right now.
And we'll break that game down later. But that is
not what I hold in my hand right now. What
I hold in my hand right now makes me nervous.
Here we go, Ohio State Michigan Saturday High NEWSWN Eastern

(19:00):
kickoff on Fox. I cannot overstate the mental impact that
this had on me last year, that this had on
Ohio State last year, firstly for terrible reasons, and then
I'm a firm believer. It catapulted them into discovering a
whole new version of themselves, which was good enough to
win a national championship. Michigan's won four straight. I don't

(19:24):
know if you've heard that this week, but they've won
four straight. But last year was the most inexplicable result
out of this entire rivalry as long as I've been
a coherent adult human being watching it. Just remember, take
yourself back, Earmuffs and Columbus for a second, take yourself back. Okay,
Michigan had won two in a row and I'd been
at both of those games, and last year they had

(19:45):
won three in a row. I was so confident that
Ohio State had this thing in the bag. Last year
I didn't go to that game. I went to Texas
A and M Texas. So you've lost three in a
row to them, You've got them at home terrible. They
can't complete a forward pass. You're well on your way
to the playoff. You're a three touchdown favorite. Weather looked

(20:06):
bad early in the week. Come come Saturday, come kick
off time. It's sunny and Columbus is in the upper forties.
Everything is set, the stage is set, and you I
don't even I'm just telling you. I watched it in disbelief.
Given the circumstances, it was the most stunning outcome in
a college football game that I think I ever remember.

(20:29):
I'm talking about all the bigger upsets, like all the
bigger points spread upsets. This wasn't the biggest point spread
upset ever, obviously twenty twenty one something like that. Given
what was at stake, it was the most jarring result
I think I've ever seen. Okay, so this Saturday forecasting
and arbor upper twenties at kickoff, eighty percent chance of
snow as the game goes on. I also have it

(20:53):
on good authority. In fact, how about FanDuel hit us
up today and they said if you would have bet
one hundred dollars on Michigan money line back when they
first started this streak in twenty twenty one, bet one
hundred dollars on Michigan that afternoon, and keep doubling down
with your winnings every game thereafter. You would be up

(21:15):
twenty five, eight hundred and ninety eight dollars right now.
And if you laid it on the line this Saturday
and they won, you'd be up eighty one thousand dollars.
I don't know if any of you out there did that.
I'm just telling you. That's what FANDU will let me know.
So tell me one thing about the game. Who has
more rushing yards? If anyone knows, if anyone has the
crystal ball, and you can look into it, because I'm
going to tell you that's probably who wins the game.

(21:37):
And the reason I'm going to say that, another paper
popper of a stat here is total rush yards. The
team that wins that little mini battle within the battle
has won the game. Since two thousand and one. Every
game since two thousand and one has been won by
the team that had more rushing yards run defense in
this game, Ohio State two, Michigan eleven. It's tough to
come by rushing offenses in this game. Ohio State in

(22:00):
the fifties, Michigan number ten. That's a Michigan shot. I mean,
Michigan's got to be able to do it, and they
can do it with quarterback as well. Obviously, no Justice
Haynes for Michigan. Jordan Marshall. Yes, Bryce Underwood, I think's
got to get some stuff done with his legs in
this game. But I'm going to say this again, like
I said last year, Ohio State holds all the keys here.

(22:20):
It sounds a little disrespectful to Michigan, but I meet
it in a couple of ways. The first set of
keys that Ohio State holds is to all of college football,
because if Ohio State is as good as they've looked,
very few teams can compete with them on a neutral field,
which is what the playoff would be. So there's a
very very small handful of teams that could ever hope

(22:41):
to win the national championship. If Ohio State is even
just a smidge overrated, or if they're outright fraudulent, which
I doubt, but humor me here, then they're like eight
to ten teams that could win it all. So Ohio
State holds all the cards to the college football Playoff
in terms of variants, but they also hold the cards
here because their plan A has worked all season. Like,

(23:03):
if you've watched Ohio State games, when have they had
to deviate? When has the fastball not worked? They've been
able to throw that thing ninety eight with pretty much
pinpoint accuracy all year. And it doesn't really matter. If
you can paint in the upper nineties. You don't need
a devastating twelve to six curve ball, like you don't
need a change up that falls off a cliff lower black.

(23:23):
You don't need all that. But that doesn't mean they
don't have it. So they could have all that, Like
it could be the worst of both worlds for opposing
teams out there where Ohio State hasn't had to do that,
but when they have to do it, they will be
able to do it. Cat Busters are important here. Cat
Buster profile bears very close watching Ohio State's defense is
number one in the country and cat buster runs allowed

(23:47):
those are runs of thirty plus yards. If you've watched Michigan,
Michigan's about as good as any team in the country
at lulling you to sleep. It looks like they just
keep running into a brick wall. Gain of one, gain
of three, gain of two, boom of eighty and you
can go into a Michigan preview and you could say,
if they just stop the explosive run, man, you can
shut Michigan down. Or you'll come out of a Michigan

(24:09):
win and you'll say, you know, Michigan only had thirty
eight rushing yards outside of their two big explosive runs. Well,
that's the thing. Michigan does that pretty regularly. They're top
five in the country in cap buster runs. So that's
one of those big something has to give sort of
deals because it's a non negotiable. Michigan's got to break
some explosive runs and Ohio State just hasn't given them up.

(24:30):
But the thing about Michigan defensively is their number one
against the cap buster pass. They don't let you get them,
or at least they haven't let teams get them big
chunk style through the air. Ohio State is top ten
offensively in that category. So it's a real good two
way strength on strength there. But the thing to remember,

(24:51):
the one thing I can't get out of the back
of my mind about Ohio State is I said they
were top ten in cap buster plays through the air.
Off offensively, they're number nine. They've really shut it down offensively.
They really haven't had to gear up offensively a whole lot,
so they may be better than ninth. Like really their
top end maybe number one in the country. Just interesting

(25:15):
to keep an eye on there. Cat Busters, cat busters
on the ground from Michigan, cat busters through the air
for Ohio State. Ohio State's philosophy last year was an
abomination in this game. Now, I don't think it was randomized.
I think it was born out of this entire concept
of being tired of being bullied in this game. And
they were getting out physical by Michigan, and so Ryan

(25:36):
Day rightly looked around and said, there's no reason we
should ever get out physical against anyone, And so they
dedicated themselves for an entire year two. We're going to
hammer home that we will not be the second most
physical team on the field with them come late November.
But the problem is, once you got to the game,
it became pretty obvious that Ohio State's edge was throw

(25:57):
the ball. You recruited these guys for a reason, throw
the ball, and they didn't, And they just kept on
running into brickwall after brickwall, and it lowered the variants
and it compacted the game, and it limited possessions, which
you never want to do if you're the more talented team,
which Ohio State was, and it gave Michigan a shot.
And the thing is Michigan didn't even play a good
game and they still won. So I'd look at that
and I'd say, I got all these horses in the stable.

(26:20):
I'm letting the horses run this year. Jeremiah Smith looks
like he's gonna play. Carnel Tait looks like he's good
to go, at least if you listen to Caleb Down's podcast,
which of course I do. Michigan has faced one passing
offense in the top thirty this year. Now, again, that
doesn't automatically mean that your defensive stat profile is a mirage.
That just means what it means. It means you may

(26:40):
be every bit as legit as this paper says you are,
and you're gonna prove it Saturday, but you have to
prove it. That's all that means. But if I go down,
if I'm Ohio State, I'm going down, trusting Julian saying
to throw the rock to my playmakers. Not that I
can't run the ball, but my edge in this game,
I don't care if it's snowing on snow probably hurts

(27:01):
their defense more than me, as long as it did
in twenty thirty, Mine or Augusty wins the footing, especially
for the side of the ball that has to anticipate
what I'm doing, because I know which routes my guys
are running, and I can make you look like a
fool and put you in a blender. So put more
snow on the field. I don't care. Once I figure
out Julian Sand's good to go and he's handling the
rivalry well, and he's handling the cold air well. If

(27:22):
he's handling those things, I'm going down firing with that guy.
Because their guy is going to do the same thing.
They're gonna trust him, at least I assume they are.
I'm trusting my guy. There is no way that I'm
going conservative in this one. And I'll tell you Michigan
that one top thirty passing offense they faced was usc
usc threw it for two sixty five on them, but

(27:44):
they ran it for two twenty four on them. Now,
that was in Los Angeles much earlier in the year,
and it was warm, and this will be freezing cold
in ann Arbor, and this is kind of a one
game season anyway, And I get that you gotta trust
your quarterback, you gotta let your horses run. I expect
Ohio State who go total flamethrower early in this game.
I truly believe that Ohio State staff looks at this

(28:06):
game and says, we could be up twenty one to
nothing at the end of the first quarter, and if
they're up even half that much, it could be ballgame.
I don't like the prospects of Michigan playing catch up
in this game whatsoever. So you go for the knockout,
and you've got the athletes to land the knockout blow
and if you do, it could be a fun final
three quarters for you. The worst that happens is you

(28:27):
don't land it and then you settle into the game.
But there's a worse worst that could happen, and that
is in the process of going for the knockout, you
turn the ball over. Even then, though Michigan's not going
to pull away from you, like it'll be a compacted game,
you could win and blow out fashion. Their shot is
to beat you at the gun. That's probably the way
the game profiles. But There's another another, another worst case

(28:49):
scenario that could happen, and that is go three and
out a couple of times your first two possessions, and
they put together a couple of ten to eleven play
eight nine minute time consuming drive on you, and you
look at your watch and wow, we got eight minutes
to go into a halftime and we're just now getting
the ball for the second time. Now, that is how
the game starts to stack up, exactly how Michigan wants
it to stack up. Who plays whose game, Who forces

(29:13):
the other to play their game. Michigan cannot win Ohio
State's game. I don't think that Ohio State can win
Michigan's game. But Michigan obviously is in their wheelouse when
they're playing their game. That's why they call it Michigan's game.
This game has humiliated me. Let me be more frank,
Ohio State has embarrassed me. Four years in a row.
I've picked Ohio State four years in a row in

(29:35):
this game. They have lost four years in a row.
I've been at three of them, trust me, and I
can tell you I know. There's been a lot of
talk this week about what the biggest rivalry is in
college football, and I've been to all of them and
they're all intense. There is no more intense rivalry than
this one. To me, I grew up in the shadow
of the Iron Bowl. I'll be at the Iron Bowls Saturday.

(29:56):
That thing doesn't take much of a backseat to anyone.
Ohio State and Michigan's just incredible, though. And I'm telling you,
I've been, you know, in Ohio Stadium most recently, watching
them lose and watching some of those seniors after the
game's over and you've gone up the tunnel and you've
done all your press, and a lot of those guys
are playing for their last time in their home building.

(30:17):
And this was a couple of years ago. To watch
them come back out when the stadium's empty and you're
out there doing your post game live hits and stuff,
and I mean, it's so quiet in there, the wind
blowing through the stadium. You can hear the cups blown
around in the stands, and you just look in they're
about five or six seniors sitting with their back against
the wall on the ground, just bawling their eyes out.
It means a lot. Man game means a whole lot.

(30:39):
So I'm gonna show you what the model thinks about it.
Fandel's got Ohio State minus ten and a half right now,
our models got Ohio State minus ten. I picked this
game the moment last year's game ended. I am not
going to be proven wrong in this game by Ohio
State losing again. So I think Ohio State's better team.

(31:01):
Model thinks Ohio State wins and wins comfortably. Everything about
my breakdown of the game leans me towards Ohio State.
I couldn't care less until further notice. Michigan will win
this game. Michigan covers Michigan money line. And look, if
that's what it takes for Ryan Day and company to
win this game, is for me to pick against them,

(31:22):
then I'll be happy to take the fall for you.
I'm just saying I've tried to ride with you the
past four years. You guys have done this to me.
Michigan has done this to me as well, So don't
it's inexplicable. I don't. Look, you heard the breakdown. I
don't have a ton of ammunition for Michigan right now.
You think I had reasons to pick them last year? No,
they won anyway, So I expect an outcome that is

(31:44):
void of reason until further notice. There, let's move on
the game. I'll be at Iron Bowl Saturday night, seven
thirty Eastern kick ABC Alabama at Auburn will be there
on the sideline Jorden Harris Stadium hadn't been there in
a couple of years. We are fueled by quick Trip.
The game is presented by quick Trip. Alabama's won five straight.

(32:08):
They say this place is haunted, they say it's cursed.
They say Bama can't go in there and win, And
yet last two times I've watched them down there, they've
ripped Auburn's heart out. Like it's one thing to get
blown out. The way Bamas beat you in there twice
is almost worse. And I'm asking for everyone who's talking
about that place being cursed against Alabama. Could the entire
dynamic not be reversed there? If I was an Auburn

(32:30):
fan and I watched the way I've lost to those
fools in my backyard the last two times they were here,
I'd be asking about the C word curse for my
own self. Or maybe it's just not real at all.
And the team that executes the most wins the game.
Ah No, it can't be that. That can't be how
football works anyway, Alabama's college football playoff hopes are on
the line. DJ Diurkin interim head coach for Auburn. His

(32:52):
name is in the mix. There is absolutely a world
where Auburn wins this game in dramatic fashion, set Saturday,
and it is just a DJ Dirkin love fest, and
he rides that wave right into an announcement twenty four
hours later that that's our head coach. Could absolutely see
that happening. Auburn's gonna start Ashton Daniels at quarterback. So

(33:14):
anyone who got drunk on the Deuce Night show against Mercer, good,
good showing. But this is Ashton Daniels game. So I've
got a piece of paper front of me. Here's what
we need to figure out. How many lies can Auburn
make this sheet of paper? Tell cause the sheet of

(33:34):
paper makes it look like I should solidly lean Alabama
in this game. Alabama's offensive strength matches up really well
with Auburn's defensive weakness. And by that I mean Bamas
got about the ninth or tenth best passing offense in
the country and Auburn's pass defense is right around one hundred. Okay,
that's what the paper says. Paper doesn't always matter, though.

(33:57):
Auburn's got the eleventh run defense in the country, Bama
not running the ball much anyway. You know what that
sounds like. Sounds like the Oklahoma game a couple of
weeks ago. Now, Oklahoma's got a better pass rush than Auburn.
Auburn's pass rush not bad, though, And when you combine
that with the fact that Bama played Oklahoma and Tuscaloosa,
crowd NOI is not an issue. You're on the road.
This will be the most hostile place Alabama plays in

(34:18):
all year. You've got to deal with a pass rush
and crowd noise. So look, I would view the challenge
you're gonna deal with upfront Saturday as every bit as
tough as what Oklahoma gave you in tuscal loose. I
would just plan on that. Not to mention, those dudes
are gonna play outside their minds with their hair on fire.
So I would assume that can they make the piece
of paper lie? Cause in the Oklahoma game, Ty Simpson

(34:40):
got his Jesse. He threw for over three hundred, right,
he got his, but it came at the expense of
turning the ball over and that teach tape. Like if
you sent in a team meeting room Friday before a game,
honestly all week, but if you're in there Friday before
a game, one of the last things any staff does
is they get that entire team in that theater and
they show them each tape from other teams. They show

(35:02):
him situational stuff, usually on Friday, and then if you
think turnover is gonna be key here, I mean for Auburn,
it's really simple just showing the Oklahoma tape and show
him how much Oklahoma attacked the football when Alabama had it.
That's what could turn this game. That's what could make
the paper live. Secondly, is Alabama's offense regressing? Does it
feel like it's cooling off a little bit? I think

(35:24):
it is. Josh Quavis for Alabama is I think their
fourth most important offensive player. Ty Simpson's up there, Jeremy
Bernard's up there, Parker Brailsford to me, is very important.
The center Josh Quavis, outside of those guys, is right
up there with one of the most important players on
that team. He's kind of a do all guy. I mean,

(35:44):
I had to bore tell me the story about when
they first found him, Like it just he's no star
guy in California and they brought him into camp and
he can cust a couple of guys in camp, and
they're like, yea, we probably need to find a spot
for this guy. And that's way back when he was
at Washington and now he's here. He just kind of
does everything. He's always around the ball. He's a very
dependable safety valve for them on third down, of which

(36:05):
there will be several critical downs of that nature in
this game. And if he's not on the field, just
means other folks got to step up. Man. You know,
one's one hundred percent this time of year. But Bama
was thirteen of nineteen on third down against Georgia. That's
the most comparable game this one probably has in terms
of road environment. Bama went into Athens on a Saturday
night and they went thirteen of nineteen. Remember the precision,

(36:28):
Remember how incredible that show was in the first half,
especially how do you recreate that. You don't need that
good a game to beat Auburn, but you need to
be successful on third down here, like especially early on,
you can't be stalling out a couple of early three
and outs of your own. You give them the ball,
they start bleeding clock on you. There's a whole mental
side of this thing, by the way, that is just

(36:51):
constantly knocking on Alabama's door anytime they're playing down there,
try as you might to block it out. So you know,
do they click like they did Agast Georgia or is
it more in line with the Oklahoma game. Maybe they
do click, but then they turn the ball over. It
does not matter that they were clicking. There was a
quote I saw earlier today, Auburn can't win throwing the ball.

(37:13):
It's very simplistic. Does that mean they don't have a
forward pass en route to a win? Of course not.
I wonder how true that is. I wonder how true
that is now. The Bama pass rush, I think is
very much improved. Auburn is one hundred and thirty fourth
in sacks allowed. So I do understand the sentiment that
I mean, you can't let Ashton Daniels just sit back

(37:34):
there like a statue and get killed. Well good, He's
not a statue, so I don't expect him to sit
back there. But I would just like you to look
at the screen right quick for anyone who thinks they
can't throw the ball, was this dude not thirty one
of forty four for three hundred and fifty three through
the air against Vanderbilt. Fairly decent team, not a great secondary,
but fairly decent team. Those aren't Mercer numbers at least,

(37:56):
all due respect to the Bears, all due respect, I
was on campus of Mercer not too long ago. We
didn't announce it though not a fall. Don't lie to
her stop. My point is, when you add the element
of mobility here, I do think there could be some
explosive plays through the air. Probably not gonna throw thebaull
forty four times unless you're playing catch up. But I
think about the mobility factor, I think about consistent five

(38:19):
yard gains. I think about the effort and whether Auburn
can give themselves an edge in the effort department. I
just wonder how much Alabama's gonna need offensively. I don't
expect them to need thirty five or forty to win
this game. But Robbie Ashford did plenty enough against Vandy
on the road to get Auburn in position to maybe

(38:40):
win a game. Expect an inspired effort here. Just can
they stun them early. It almost feels that's the way
the game script always plays out. It's Bama gets on
the ropes early and then they're fighting, and then they
got to come from behind at the gun to win
in Jorden Hair Stadium. I'll tell you I see this
game a little different way. I'll show you what the
model thinks. The FanDuel number right now is Alabama minus
five and a half. So I said this profiles like

(39:00):
the Oklahoma game, and everyone, especially the Oklahoma video department,
who I am back on good terms with now, by
the way, I'm happy to report everyone remembers me emphatically
picking Alabama to win that game and cover because I
was very confident that they would do exactly what they
did from a statistical profile. The only thing I didn't
anticipate was they would lose the turnover battle three to zero.

(39:21):
And it wasn't random. Oklahoma took the ball away three times.
But I still believe that in terms of a predictive nature,
that stat is randomized, like Bama could be plus three
turnovers themselves Saturday every bit as likely as their minus
three turnovers. I think because of the Oklahoma outcome, combined

(39:41):
with the entire notion that there is black magic in play.
Anytime Alabama goes to Auburn, this line has been suck
down to five and a half. We think it should
be over a touchdown. We think Bama should be favored
by eight, So I'll take that value. I don't think
Bama's getting punched out here. I think They're going to
go in there and win. And I will actually take
them to cover the five and a half and I
will take them to go to Atlanta. It's gonna be

(40:04):
a very entertaining game though. And then we look towards
the next week and the next week. If I'm right,
the next week would be Alabama goes to Atlanta. Who
are they playing? Could be playing A and M could
be playing Georgia. Either way, a ton of those folks
watch our show. A ton of them would be in Atlanta.
Did you know that we'll be in Atlanta that Friday

(40:25):
night before the game? Did you know that we're having
a live show that Friday night before the game. Yes,
this is not rumor, this is not baseless speculations. Sources
are confirming that we will have a show live at
the Bucket Theater. They're in Buckhead. Tickets are on sale now.
We look. I am being very careful with how we

(40:45):
promote this, okay, because we're gonna we're gonna sell this
thing out pretty quick. It's pretty big theater, but we're
on the verge of selling the thing out already, and
I haven't really I haven't said a word about this
on socials yet because I know we'll get a flood
when I say something about it on social. So I'm
given our cores, our day ones, our p ones, the
first shot at buying tickets, and most of you have.

(41:08):
You can go to paistatemterial dot com if you haven't
purchased already, still got some seats left. They're not gonna
be there much longer, is all I can tell you.
So I will end up promoting this on social and
I hope everyone who wanted to get in, who is
a dedicated loyal viewer of the live show, it gets
priority because you deserve it, and that's why we're only

(41:30):
promoting it on the show right now. But it's gonna
be fun. We're gonna have some special guests, probably announce
those next week, and we are going to have a
ton of fun. It's not gonna be like doing this show.
It'll be a live show, but it'll be like us
on stage, fully interactive. Anyone who was in Lincoln, Nebraska
when we went up there with Busting with the Boys,

(41:50):
that kind of show, That's the kind of show we're
gonna do. It won't be broadcast anywhere. The only way
to see it will be there. Let's dive back in
to the show that we're doing right now. Boyd's coaching
searches are about to be insane. It's Tuesday night right now,

(42:12):
and we know that Eric Morris has taken the Oklahoma
state job. I'll talk about that in a little while,
but everyone is still talking about Lane Kiffin. And I've
been accused of taking like eight minutes per show to
say nothing about Kiffin. No. No, what I've been doing
is giving you accurate updates. There have been no updates.
There have been rumors on message boards. When I've been

(42:34):
telling you, hey, nothing's decided yet. I could just sit
here and say, hey, he's going to LSU. Oh, I'm
predicting him to go to Florida. Well, I don't really
care where I predict him to go. I mean, I've
got pretty good guided intel or good knowledge, good firsthand
knowledge of the situation. It's just been undecided. Now I
am ready to tell you tonight on Tuesday, November twenty fifth.
If I had to guess where he's gonna end up,

(42:55):
I think he's the next head coach at LSU. That's
my guess. I don't know that that's nailed down. I
am just telling you I have worked with people like Lane.
I know where Lane's head has been, at least as
much as any outsider can know where Lane's head has been.
It is not decided until he looks Jimmy Sexton in

(43:17):
the eye and says sign it, do it, pull the trigger.
Until then, it doesn't matter who's looked at real estate,
who is tentatively purchased real estate, which plane's gone where.
That dude could call LSU tonight and say I'm coming
and change his mind tomorrow morning. That's the nature of
this it has been. I believe LSU's in the best position.

(43:39):
I do believe that. I don't think anything's fully decided.
I don't think anyone's fully out of this. That includes
Ole miss even though a lot of people would tell
you they are out of it. I don't believe that
until it's over. But what's got my interest here is
not so much Lane. Everyone's paying attention to him. What
happens to the school slash schools that don't have have

(44:00):
his services? If he stays at Old Miss, it's especially
crazy because that means the Florida and LSU jobs remain open.
But let's say it goes the most likely scenario. Let's
say he goes to LSU, the Florida job is still open.
Where do they turn? I do think they've tried to
get their ducks in a row. I think John Sumrall
still in the mix for that job. Eli Drinkwitz's name

(44:21):
has been mentioned, but the fan base seems to be
pushing back on that a lot. I've seen Jedfish's name
thrown around. You know, Jed would love that job, man,
and he has gotten hot as of late. And I
want you to picture this world, Okay, you got to
forward think on this. Picture a world where Lane, after
the egg Bowl, decides he's either going to LSU or

(44:42):
he's going to stay at Old Miss, and Jedfish upsets organ.
This is in no way how coaching searches should operate,
but they do operate this way. Picture that late wave
of momentum that Jedfish has. And here's what you do.
If you're Scott Strickland. You pull the A and M move.
But it's not the way A and M did it.

(45:03):
But you still pull the A and M move. You
float a name. Maybe it's drink and by the way,
I think Eli Drinkowitz would do grade at either one
of these places. People are so backwards with the way
they judge that guy. But if the fan base doesn't
want him, the fan base doesn't want him. So you
float the name that you know people will revolt against,
kind of like Mark Stoop's name got floated at A

(45:25):
and M. Only they were about to hire Mark Stoops
and the Billy Lucci crew out there ended up tearing
that down. Then they got Mike Elko, who I'm told
is doing all right. You float the name the folks
wouldn't want, and then you circle back around, you go
hire Jetfish. Because what you don't want is if you
hire Jetfish. I'm just saying, if you hire Jetfish in
the scenario, what you don't want is people saying we

(45:47):
didn't get Kiffin, we got Jetfish. What you want him
saying is we got Jetfish instead of Eli drink Woitz.
If they prefer him over Eli, that's how you operate that,
That's how I think that would go down. Still a
lot of stones unturned. Eric Moore did sign with Oklahoma
State today. So Eric Morris was the North Texas head coach,
and I thought he was going to Arkansas guys, and

(46:08):
I think he had an offer from Arkansas, and this
is just what I've heard. I think he chose Oklahoma
State over Arkansas, and that's kind of indicative of where
the Arkansas coaching search is right now. I think at
Oklahoma State they probably sold him that we can do
what Texas Tech is doing. We got big money here too.

(46:28):
We can be the next Texas Tech. That's going to
be about half a dozen different Big twelve schools pitches
over the next twelve to twenty four months. By the way,
so Good Hire the Tom Fournelly line, I just we're
going to license it from for Nelly Great Hire. I
have no idea whether it'll work out. It's the safest
you could possibly play it. Where's Arkansas going to go?

(46:50):
I have said for quite a while I would love
to go get Alex Goldish if I were Arkansas. The
thing of it is, I don't know how available he
is is to Arkansas. He has listened. I know he
would listen. I know there's probably some trepidation about, you know,

(47:10):
getting questions answered the way you want them. And this
is not just a golish thing. Anyone who takes that
Arkansas job is asking the same set of questions. And
I know Hunter Yrcheck's taking a lot of heat up there,
maybe rightfully so. But if you don't get those questions
answered perfectly, you don't take the Arkansas job because you're
already behind the eight ball. If you take the Arkansas job,

(47:31):
because they're going to pay you a ton of money,
which means they're going to have outsized expectations there relative
to what you're probably capable of in the SEC. I
got a lot of respect for that program, but until
further notice, that's the state of affairs. So it's got
to be a perfect situation or else you don't land
the plane at Arkansas. I don't know where they're gonna go.
Caine Walmack, I think is a candidate for that job.

(47:52):
And I you know, the other thing I wonder and
I haven't heard anything on this, you know, what nevermind
of couse, what I was gonna do is just throw
a random name out there, and I'm not doing that.
Penn State. Speaking of random names, does anyone know what
Adam Brenneman is talking about? Does anyone know? Should we
text Adam? No? No, It's much more fun to baselessly speculate.

(48:13):
I know the Penn State community has noticed that you
still haven't hired a coach. I got some very mixed
reviews on the state of the Penn State search, but
I also think it's become really closed off. So I
think Pat Kraft is really flying almost solo, not quite solo,
but I mean, I really think he's pushed a lot
of voices out of the room, and truthfully, I don't

(48:34):
know how qualified he is to pull this thing off.
I do not think they're going to get any of
the Grand Slam candidates. I don't think they're getting any
of the home run candidates. I still think Bob Chesney
could very well get this job. Who is the head
coach at JMU. That's just what I think a lot
of people are asking about. A tweet from Adam Brenneman
that talks about a big name out there, that is

(48:55):
kind of off everyone's radar, and that's the one that
they're sort of honing in on. And there was some
reporting from our Penn State on three side earlier today
that there's some traction with that name, and they think
that name is going to be receptive, and they don't
think that name is gonna, you know, drop out at
the last minute, like maybe an Eric Morris at Arkansas.

(49:16):
Do I know the name? Yeah, I know the name.
I will tell you this. It's not my intel to report, Okay,
I assume that name will leak. I will also tell
you I have not personally heard that name any other place.
I haven't heard that name for any other coaching opening.
And outside of you know, being told who Adam was

(49:38):
talking about, I haven't heard that name mentioned by anyone else, agents,
other coaches up for the job, anybody at Penn State
involved with the coaching search. That means what it means.
That just means I haven't heard it. That doesn't mean
it's not true. It could be totally accurate. I got
no reason to doubt it, got no reason to doubt it.
If if what Adam Brennan is talking about, if that

(50:00):
name is the one to pan out if that's the
guy that Penn State signs. He is absolutely right, that
would turn heads. He is absolutely right that name would
come like sting from the rafters. I would give you
fifteen guesses, and I don't think even people who have
been following this coaching search, I really don't think that
name would come up in the top fifteen. Now I
will be called irresponsible for doing this and not sharing

(50:22):
a name. It's not my intel to share. I just
happen to know who he's talking about. It would be
interesting personally. I don't think it's a fit. And I
will absolutely tell you if the dude who gets hired
is the one he was talking about, I will absolutely
tell you. I assume he will, though I don't have
to worry about me doing that. I assume he will.
At Auburn, I am still going to stand by my

(50:43):
guns here. This has been a very very high level
coaching search. It has been the most relatively speaking, seamless operation.
Seamless Yeah, seamless operation in a coaching search format that
I've seen Auburn conduct, and we've seen him conduct several
of them. I still bet my money on John Summer
all there. I don't think that's a done deal. It's
not done deal until he's at the press conference. Because

(51:04):
John's in pretty high demand. So Auburn's got their ducks
in a row. This is not a wobbly search. If
they don't land their guy, it's just because their guy
wanted to go somewhere else. More So, it's not gonna
because they fumbled the bag at the eleventh hour. I
don't think. I think Dj Dirkin still has a really
good shot to get this job. Obviously when the Iron
Bowl and that really gets turned up. A long timeline

(51:27):
does funny things. So if the Auburn job came open today,
if they fired Hugh Freeze today, we would have a
week and the coaching search would just go like one
or two days, and there'd be a big list of names.
Then it would narrow down. Then there would be a
guy that was the front runner over the weekend, and
then there would be a report their finalizing terms, and
then you got him and you didn't even have time

(51:47):
to speculate. But because they fire Hugh free so long ago,
you've had multiple weeks to speculate. So it gets old
just saying the same thing. So let's say one guy
has really been the guy the whole time. Let's say
it's Clark Lee has been involved in the Auburn coaching search.
Let's say Clark was the guy the whole time. It
gets boring just continuing to say it's going to be Clark,

(52:08):
it's Clark's job. So you just out of boredom, you
start inserting new names where you start manufacturing drama. And
I really think sometimes that's the way this works. And
I really think the Auburn coaching search has been pretty
buttoned up, and the lack of drama almost has some
of my Auburn constituency concerned. No, no, no, the opposite
of that should have you concerned. They're watching us in Trenton,

(52:30):
New Jersey. They're watching in Charlotte, North Carolina, Cordeal, Georgia.
We appreciate you guys so much. Back to the Rivalry
Week predictions. Texas A and M at Texas Friday, seven
thirty Eastern kickoff, ABC. They're not even making us wait
until Saturday. That's why Rivalry Week, much like hope, is
a good thing. Maybe the best of things. SEC Championship

(52:53):
game trip was on the line last year. We were
at this game last year in college station winner goes
to Atlanta and it was a seventeen to seven game.
It wasn't particularly aesthetically pleasing. I think it got two
Chali Max and it was a ten point game. But
A and M just never really felt like they were
in it. So I got a question for you, who
has the quarterback edge in this game? You could ask, well,

(53:17):
you mean, who's been the better quarterback all season? Who's
been the better quarterback the last few weeks? Like what
do you want to know? Well, I want to know
how you would answer that. Is it a season thing?
Is it a November thing? I'm just telling you. Arch
has thrown for three hundred plus and three plus touchdowns
in three of his last four games. And Marcel Reid
you probably remember him digging himself a hole against South Carolina,

(53:40):
pulling himself out of the hole. I'm still holding on
to my Marcel Reid Heisman ticket. If it's gonna cash,
he's got to make his move this weekend. So do
I have a favorite in this game? Yes, I'm pulling
for Marcel Reid. I would love for him to throw
for six hundo. Now, maybe Arch matches him and we
go to overtime, in which case. You know, started over

(54:00):
and all's well, that ends well, and you know, Texas
doesn't suffer because my Heisman pick wins. But every November
there is a performance that gets remembered and becomes the
focus of the next year's hype, which would be ironic
if it were Arch, because Arch was really hyped up.
He was the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy this year.
You'll remember famously in July, and it would be so

(54:22):
crazy if he kind of fell short of expectations. But
then he had a game against A and M late
that made people say, you know, his season was kind
of up and down, but man, did you see he
played his best ball late. You know, they say it
about someone every year, and he peaked at the right
time and they lit up Texas A and M and boy,
that really builds momentum into winter conditioning and spring ball.

(54:43):
And this time next year, Arch may really, he may
very well be the best quarterback in the country. That
could happen Saturday. It could happened Saturday. One area Texas
has to answer for though, sort of a pre paper
popper here. A and M is fourteenth in the county
and explosive passes and Texas's defense is ninety eighth in
that category. Texas's defense is just one oh seven overall

(55:07):
against the pass. And now we saw Marcel redo it
because he had to to come from behind, but we've
just seen them do it this year period, and they've
got really good receiving talent, and when some of that
talent has been hurt, there's been new talent that's emerged.
And the thing about it is, sometimes when you say
that about a team, you can afford to play a
little bit lighter in the box to help slow down

(55:30):
that passing game or to help fill some alleys and
that passing game maybe force a tipball in completion or
better yet, an interception. You can't do that against A
and M. Because against Auburn they had forty seven carries
for two hundred and seven and a score. I mentioned
Auburn because Auburn's Rundy probably most readily profiles like Texas's

(55:51):
does like Texas pretty good against the run, not so
good against the pass. That's kind of Auburn's profile. It's
not shot for shot, but it's kind of the same way.
And A and M ran it on them, not at will,
but they ran it plenty good enough and CJ. Vogel
has been providing stat gems all year and he provided
another one. Here's why that running game is so important,
aside from the obvious. Marcel Read on play action this year,

(56:14):
seventy three point eight percent completion percentage, sixteen touchdowns, one pick.
You suck at running the ball, No one falls for
play action. You're running the ball effectively. Play actions there.
Marcel Read without play action fifty five point four percent
completion guy, nine touchdowns, seven interceptions. My prediction, a lot

(56:35):
of play action. Colin Klein dialing it up in this game.
But what does play action require? Time? Where does Texas
specialize getting after the quarterback? They're number three in the
country in sack rate, So that's the balance you have
to strike there. Texas is tenth and turnover margin A
and M's one hundred and ninth. Sometimes that matters, Sometimes

(56:57):
it doesn't. I'm just telling you, if it plays out
according to the stat sheet, Texas has a big edge
here enforcing turnovers. It didn't matter in Oklahoma, Alabama most recently,
maybe it won't matter here. Steve Sarkesian needs something to sell.
He needs a big win to hang his hat on.
He has not gotten it. He badly needs it. Texas

(57:18):
A and M has won games in all sorts of
ways this year. They beat Notre Dame in a shootout.
They beat Auburn in that slugfest. They got down thirty
to three to South Carolina and had to come from
behind to win. They went on the road to Missouri
the week before and just totally handled business. So they
are well versed and win in any kind of game

(57:38):
that Texas presents them. Let's take a look at what
the model thinks. The FanDuel number is A and M
minus two and a half. The model agrees, we got
A and M minus three. I think A and M
is going to go in there and get the job done.
This is a really important game for those folks. Not
to mention just the whole rivalry dynamic. I got through
this whole thing, and I didn't even mention the pure

(57:59):
on the adulterated hatred of Texas A and M and Texas.
I mean, Texas is a home dog on this game,
still with the audacity to kind of pat A and
M on the head welcome in, little bro. Nope, can't
let it be that way. And I don't think it
will be that way. I think A and M will
get the job done. They'll win, they'll cover, and they
will go to Atlanta to play for an SEC championship.

(58:20):
We move on nice brisk pace here because I've got
so much to get to tonight. If you're watching just
an FYI, we do this show free year round. We
would never ask you to pay for the show. But
the way we do it for free is by you
subscribing to the channel. Now, mind you, it doesn't cost
you anything to subscribe, and it doesn't sign you up
for anything. All it does is help us, so we

(58:42):
don't have to go have a big corporate umbrella over
the show. You know a lot of you rail against
corporate sports media. Okay, well, the way that you create
alternatives is to help us do a show like we
do here. Hopefully you like it enough to subscribe to
the channel, and then those numbers, in turn get seen
by advertisers and they investor money here instead of there,
and then we get to grow this show with no oversight,

(59:04):
and we get to do it however we want to.
So our balls are in your court. I got the
JP pole right here. The JP Pole, not a ranking
JP pole, Power ratings. Now, the JP pole sees things
a little bit different than the Playoff Committee, but that's okay,
because we're not trying to do on this piece of
paper here. What the Playoff Committee does know. What we're
trying to do is tell you just who would be

(59:25):
favored on the neutral field. Now, if you don't care
about that, you should skip past this right now, because
what I don't like is people who watch this video
and then go to the comment section and say, who
cares you? You're watching? Now? What's forcing you? I just
find this to be a little helpful, just a little
added bullet point, just some information for you to do
with whatever you will. We've got some movement this week,

(59:49):
so let me just go twenty to one rent quick,
and I've got some real tightening at the top. Now,
Ohio State's had a big gap on everyone this year.
They don't have a huge gap anymore, at least over
number two. Michigan's number twenty, Iowa is nineteen, Penn State
is at number eighteen. Penn State has been playing good football.

(01:00:10):
You know. Penn State never dropped out of our top twenty.
I manually removed them out of embarrassment, but I was wrong.
The model got to give it credit. It was right.
It never dropped Penn State out of the top twenty,
and now Penn State's play into form. That's why the model,
that's why it does not give up on talented rosters.

(01:00:30):
And that's why sometimes you'll see, like Texas is a
three loss team right now, they would be solidly favored
over one loss BYU on a neutral field. That doesn't
mean that beat them, it's just how odds making works.
So Penn State sitting at eighteen, got three big ten
teams right there, Vandy's at seventeen, Brigham Young is at sixteen.
That is the highest Brigham Young's been all year. Back

(01:00:50):
to back very impressive wins. I think Brigham Young's two
best games have happened in back to back weeks TCU
at home at Cincinnati. Nothing flucish about them. The games
count even if you do win in flucish manner, but
in terms of predictability and in terms of odds making
and power rating, bring them Young. That profile is getting
more and more legit, or as they would argue, it's

(01:01:12):
always been legit. The model's just now catching up. And
you know what, you guys, may be right, fifteen. Usc
didn't really drop all that much, kind of got the
outcome we expected. Therefore, we don't drop you. Tennessee's at fourteen,
all right. Miami is at thirteen. They are down two
points from their preseason power rating, but they're down seven

(01:01:36):
points from where we had them in week seven. Now
they are ticking up a little bit. But Miami man
at one point. Remember we had them top five and
we weren't alone, and they dropped the ball a little bit.
Now can they get themselves in the playoff? Oklahoma's at twelve,
Utah is at eleven. I think the Model is way
overrated on Utah. That's my personal opinion. I never believed

(01:01:57):
that Utah should be power rated above Texas Tech. The
Model did so drugs when it comes to Utah top ten.
Texas is at number ten. Texas just to give you
an idea. So they play Texas A and M at
home this weekend. Preseason, we would have had or the Model,
excuse me not, the Model would have had Texas minus

(01:02:18):
ten against A and M in Week one if they
played in Austin. As it stands today, A and M
is a short favorite in Austin. Huge line move over
the course of a year. Texas Tech is at nine.
They have ascended to their rightful place as the highest
power rated Big twelve team Ole messes eight, Notre Dame seven,

(01:02:39):
Oregon is six. Notre Dame has been so steady all year.
I'm looking hundred two. The model has not deviated more
than two points up or down on Notre Dame all year.
It's important to note remember Jesse, they lost their first
two games. We dropped Notre Dame less than half a

(01:03:00):
point for losing to Miami and then losing to Texas
A and M because there were good teams that they
lost to. Now there's a big difference in a playoff
committee ballot versus power ratings. Like we didn't drop Notre Dame.
I don't know, I mean the lowest. We kept them
in the top ten all year and we got ridiculed
for it. Well again, now where are they? Like? Where

(01:03:22):
were the trolls that were hating on Notre Dame when
we had them where we were supposed to do? Now,
mark my words, we'll have people come for us and
say we hate Notre Dame because I dared to mention
the head to head result in our playoff portion of
the show against Miami. There's no winning around here, no winning.
You know what, We're winners. We're very blessed. We appreciate
you guys. Five to one Bama's five, Indiana is four

(01:03:45):
A and m is three. Georgia is to Ohio State's one. Now,
Ohiga State has been number one for quite a while.
There have been times this year where there were four
point gaps between Ohio State and the rest of the field.
There is a one point gap between Georgia and Ohio State.
Right now, there's a four point gap according to the
model between Ohio State and Indiana. I think FanDuel has

(01:04:07):
the hypothetical Big Ten Championship game line up right now,
and I think I saw it was Ohio State minus
five and a half, so the model would slightly lean
Indiana there. Anyway, that is the JP pole for tonight.
Academy Sports and Outdoors does not sell the JP Pole
because the JP Pole is not a commodity that you
can purchase, but they pretty much sell everything else and

(01:04:27):
you can get you can get hunting gear, you can
get a basketball Big lead chwo is available year round.
Do they have seasonal Big Lead chew? I don't think
they do, we can check on that. Academy Sports and
Outdoors has been a long time partner of ours, and
this is the way I look at it. A lot
of you go to college football games, but even if
you don't go to games regularly, all of you do
stuff outdoors, which means outdoor essentials are a must, which

(01:04:52):
means you're gonna purchase them somewhere. I just ask, if
you're a friend of the program, why not shop with
friends of the program, and you don't have to skimp
on quality. They got great stuff. They got what you need.
They got grills, they got canopies, they got baseball gloves.
We're heading to winter but maybe you're going to play
Puerto Rico. Maybe you're going to play winter ball down there.
I don't know what you're doing. I encourage it's very

(01:05:14):
warm down there. Academy dot Com has your hookup if
you can't get there in person, but I strongly encourage
you guys to go there in person. Good people at Academy.
We continue boy jam pack show, very jam packed. Vandy
at Tennessee has the state of Tennessee in shambles. Right now,
I am coming to you from Nashville Tennessee, and I

(01:05:34):
can tell you this entire state is shook. You got
Thanksgiving Thursday, and then you've got and say this slowly,
the University of Tennessee hosting Vanderbilt in Knoxville playing Spoiler's
am I reading that right?

Speaker 2 (01:05:49):
Yes?

Speaker 1 (01:05:50):
Yes, that's the case. We got. We got a potential
playoff implication on this game. There's no guarantee Vandy makes it.
Then if they win, if they lose, there's a guarantee
they're not going to be in. We got Diego Pavia
resurrecting the Heisman campaign he threw for like half a
mile last week, and it's all going to take place

(01:06:10):
in Niland stadiums unbelievable. Tennessee is a short two and
a half point favorite. Here the total in this game
sixty five and a half? Is thirty five going to
be enough to win for either team? What do you
think the winning team's gonna have? What do you so?
I should ask it this way? What point total will
the losing team have? Add one to that and that's

(01:06:31):
how many points the winning team will need? Good math.
We checked it with Statson Info. So what's the number?
Is it thirty six? Is it thirty one. Is it
forty six? What number do you think is necessary to
win this game? I think it's like thirty eight or
something like that. Diego Pavia is facing the number one
hundred and eleven pass defense. Joey Aguilar is facing the

(01:06:53):
number one hundred and thirteen pass defense. Pavia against Texas, Auburn,
and Kentucky average four hundred and eight passing yards, seventy
rushing yards, put up a fifteen to one touchdown to
I int ratio Joey Agilar five games of three plus
passing touchdowns. Problem, he has got four games of two

(01:07:15):
plus interceptions, which means Joey Agilar's profile is about what
you would have expected if you watched his career to
this point. That's what he's been this year for Tennessee.
The Tennessee defense versus running quarterbacks is what I'm really
focused on here. I watched him against Taylor Green in Arkansas.
Taylor Green gave him some trouble. Not he didn't rip them,

(01:07:37):
but seventeen carries for sixty three yards and a touchdown.
John Mattier carried it sixteen times for eighty yards and
a touchdown. And just consider this spot, consider this moment,
This is one of the biggest games in Vanderbilt history.
Diego Paviy is not going on to play fifteen years
in the league. Okay, Diego Paviy is a college football

(01:08:00):
iconic name, and you will talk about him for a
long time. But you're going to be talking about him
because of what he did in college. Now. I think
we all understand that, which means you need to appreciate
games like this. You don't have him much longer, at
least we don't think this could be a legacy game.
Loading for Diego Pavia. What is needed to win and

(01:08:21):
if he caps this season by going to Kneeland and winning,
I think there's a world where if Vandy wins and
they don't make the playoff. But like Diego Pavia has
a big game, there are sympathy Heisman votes that go
his way. Not that he will require sympathy, but could
you not see that? Could you not see a lot

(01:08:41):
of these Heisman voters watching him go off? And maybe
there's no clear cut Heisman favorite. Vandy gets locked out
of the playoffs even though they're ten and two. Maybe
the only shot that program will ever have at the playoff.
I could see a lot of voters saying, well, you
know what, if they can't make the playoff, I'm at
least voting for Diego Pavia for Heisman could easily happen.
Give me third down as the padlock stat in this game.
Both of them are top twelve offensively in third down.

(01:09:05):
Both defenses are bottom half of the country in third down.
Both of them are very comparable in turnover margin. Both
of them are very comparable in penalties. And that's why
the number is what it is. Tennessee is essentially favored
by home field. I mean maybe a half point additional
here and there, but it's basically a pick them on
a neutral field. And here we go. We tee it
up Saturday, three point thirty Eastern on ESPN. The model

(01:09:28):
what is it think? Vanduel's got Tennessee minus two and
a half. The model agrees, very tight line. Here models
got Tennessee minus three. I feel magic this week. I
think Vandy's going to go in there and get the win,
and I think they're going to make it very hard
on the playoff committee. And I don't feel sorry for
those people, but Vandy. If look, maybe they get locked out.

(01:09:51):
And I was looking at the playoff predictor. It was
like a fifty percent shot. I think if they win
that they make the playoff. But here's what you do.
You make them tell you no. You go until they say, sorry,
we don't have room for you, and then you let
your league commissioner fight for you. And you know, you
let Clark Lee be devastated and have the press conference.

(01:10:14):
But make them tell you no, because you know what,
maybe they'll tell you yes. Maybe it'll be emphatic. You know,
you don't have to win a close game. You guys
can go in there and run it up. Hard to do,
I know, but you're trying to accomplish something that's hard
right now. So I'm taking Vandy to win there. I'll
roll with my hometown team. We got more games here.

(01:10:35):
I'm gonna rush through something, not rush through. We're gonna go.
We're gonna go hurry up here though. Upset alerts for
Week fourteen, also known as rivalry Week. We're gonna start
with one that's not a rivalry, but it is a
huge game. Miami is favored by six and a half
in a game where the kickoff temperature is gonna be
in the low thirties against a ranked team what could

(01:10:56):
possibly go wrong? Miami again minus six and a half
at pit college football playoff hopes on the line from Miami.
Notre Dame just went in there and pitted a couple
of weeks ago and beat them pretty good. A lot
of folks are going to pay attention to how good
Miami does, and then if Miami beats him worse than
Notre Dame did, they'll just pivot to a new reason
to keep Miami out of the playoffs, because there's this

(01:11:16):
cabal out there. If you've ever watched Blacklist, you know
exactly what I mean. There's this anti Miami cabal that
has hell been on keeping them out. No matter what
I mean, the last thing we want is for the
head to head result to work its way into the equation.
We cannot let people remember that those two teams played
on the same field early in the season, because you know,
it was early in the season. So I am concerned here.

(01:11:37):
I don't like Miami in cold weather. I don't like
Miami on the road all that much. If this is
a pressure spot, Pit is top twenty, pass Miami defense
top thirty. But Miami's defense is gettable through the air,
and this is not your grandfather's pit. So they got
to throw the ball to whin. This has got to
be a Carson Beck game. Carson Beck can carve them up.

(01:11:59):
They can absolutely do it. Miami can absolutely go in
there and hang forty. Will Miami score more than the
temperature on the thermometer? Will they I got an eight
on the upset alert concern meter. The last time I
saw Miami in person, they were getting beat at SMU.
So yes, I have concern, but I think Miami's gonna
win the game. But I've got an eight on the

(01:12:21):
upset alert concern meter. Oregon. Yes, they played this week,
guys seasoned and end last week. Look at that setting
oh Man Husky Stadium, Oregon minus six and a half
at Washington. It's way too off the radar game to
be a line under a touchdown and to be a
rivalry game. It just doesn't feel like a letdown spot

(01:12:44):
to me for Oregon. This is a big game. I mean,
they played USC last week. They beat USC. No one's
overlooking this game. So if that's the quote unquote narrative
that anyone's trying to push out there, find a new narrative.
Washington could just beat Oregon. What are they special? What
is the thing that Washington could do I'm short of
winning the turnover battle. What is the thing that Washington

(01:13:07):
could do that just gives Oregon fits? I had trouble
finding that thing today, but it could be the cumulative
effect of small margins here or there. Washington's good enough
where they can compete in this game. Home field up there, man,
I was up there the last time Oregon went in there.
It's place is insane. Now Debor was the coach up
there at that time. Well, now it's Jed Fish and

(01:13:29):
they're looking to put an emphatic cap on the end
of their season. I'm putting a seven and a half
on this in terms of upset alert concern. I think
it could be a competitive game Oregon. I mean we've
seen them on the road. At Penn State they needed
overtime to win. There was a last second win at Iowa,
so I mean they haven't gone on the road. Even
against Northwestern they won, they didn't cover. You know, good

(01:13:51):
teams win, great teams cover. Let's see at Rutgers they
body bagged Rutgers. But then again, Hoops to amongst us hasn't.
So I think it could be a close game. I'm
gonna put a seven in night on it. Next up,
I don't think this is going to be a close game.
LSU is going to Oklahoma because legally they have to.
The schedule says so Oklahoma's favored by ten and a half.

(01:14:13):
I hate the spot for LSU. I think the season
is mailed in. It will be low scoring. Oklahoma didn't
really run it up offensively. Turnovers could happen, like, yeah,
there's a path where LSU can win this. They're like
thirty seven paths where Oklahoma could win it. Oklahoma's not
getting God here, They're too close. They can smell it now.
Unbelievable synergy with that team right now, unbelievable chemistry. So look,

(01:14:36):
they may not even cover. But I am told in
order to win this game, LSU's got to have more
points on the board than Oklahoma, and that's just simply
not gonna happen. Put me in any hype video you
want to. I'm putting a three on this out of
respect for the legacy of LSU. But this team I
don't think is doing much against Oklahoma. They got a
score now. Smaier's not even playing, by the way, Okay,
Virginia Tech at Virginia. Virginia's a nine and a half

(01:15:01):
point favorite. Both of them want to run the ball.
Virginia top twenty five run d Virginia Tech seventy third
ranked run defense. I think that's the most important stat
in this game. I think the will to win will
be decidedly more on the side of Virginia than Virginia Tech.
Virginia wins and they're in the ACC Championship game. Guys,
there are no more hypotheticals. There are no more do

(01:15:23):
this and count on that to happen. Virginia wins and
they're in it. Chandler Morris is back, and I think
that they were going to win this game. I would
probably pick them to cover if I had to. I'm
gonna put a four on the upset Alert concern Meter.
It is a rivalry game, but contrary to popular belief,
the better game the better teams normally win rivalry games too.
Virginia is the better team. Next up in Atlanta, but

(01:15:46):
not at Grant Field, even though it technically is a
Georgia Tech home game. They are playing in Mercedes Benz Stadium.
Georgia thirteen and a half point favorite against Georgia Tech.
Last year, this game went to nineteen overtimes. It was
a Haines King legas. I have never seen a quarterback
more valiant in defeat than Haines King was against Georgia
last year. I'm shocked he's still alive after what he endured,

(01:16:11):
but it was a legacy game. He needs two point
zero this week. And frankly, even if Haines King has
really good numbers, I don't know how Tech keeps Georgia
under forty. So it's just profiling as that kind of
game for me. Georgia very well could play in the
same building again eight days later. I think they played
this game on a Friday, so it's a two and
a half for me. I think Georgia Tech probably had

(01:16:34):
about eleven weeks worth of gas in the tank, and
the tank is a little bit close to empty right now.
They're not getting Georgia. I'll give it. I'll give it
a solid two and a half out of respect for
the rivalry. I don't think that's happening. Last year's wake
up call with standing, I don't think it's happening. Ole
Mess egg Bowl Friday, Ole Miss minus seven and a
half against Mississippi State. Has anyone talked about the game

(01:16:56):
this week? It's everything but the game. You remember that
song missing everything but the Girl I think was the
name of that band. The acoustic version is really good.
You normally hear the techno version anyway. Bradley used to
work at hot topic. He knows what I mean. Both
of these teams were off of bye this late in
the season. We got two teams off of bye. Number
thirty two rushing offense versus number one hundred and twenty

(01:17:19):
one rushing defense. That's the score here. Don't overthink it.
Lane likes to throw the ball. You know what he
really likes to do is win, and Ole Miss can
run the ball for probably about a quarter mile in
this game. They should it should become academic. I will
put a six on it in terms of upset alert
concern because there are all kinds of distractions that could

(01:17:41):
crop up. Lane's done really good at keeping that team
focused throughout this whole thing. This is not the first
week we're talking about Lane Kiff and maybe leaving Old Miss,
so that team's been pretty dialed in down the stretch here.
It's a rivalry game. Yeah, technically anything can happen blah
blah blah, copy paste. I will put a six on
this one Friday. I will be tuned in. I want

(01:18:01):
to tell you we are very proud of what's been
happening over at the pet State store. I can confidently
tell you that the Christmas merch that tis the season collection.
I had high expectations for how much that stuff would move.
It has safely surpassed my expectations. And it is late November,

(01:18:21):
so there's still a ton of time. We got the
Merry Christmas you filthy casual pull over there, it's flying.
That tis the season to be Chuggy Sweater, which is
my personal favorite, only because Jesse came up with the
other one unconfirmed report there. Even though I said it,
I'm not confirming it because I truthfully want credit for

(01:18:41):
most of the good ideas. Paytstatematerial dot com. Like a
lot of you, you have loved ones and you know
they watched the show and you have no idea what
to get him for Christmas. I do go to the store.
It's that easy. Look, let me get out of the way.
There's the QR code. I don't think it's a virus.
If you're not sure paytstatematerial dot com. I need to
update my playoff predictions, if that's okay with everyone. And

(01:19:03):
we were right before Thanksgiving we just got the new
committee rankings dropped in our lap. I feel that it
is my duty now that we have new playoff rankings
to update my playoff prediction. And what I want to
do is I want to remind you. This is kind
of the format I like to do. I like to
remind you what I'm thinking in each conference, kind of
hurry up here really quick. In the SEC I'm not

(01:19:25):
going to come off my prediction. It's Alabama over A
and M. Until otherwise stated, this could blow up. Saturday
could blow up either way. Saturday Georgia could be in
this game. There's a world where old misses in this game.
Right now, I'm sticking with Bama, A and M. That
line would be A and M minus one and a
half according to FanDuel. By the way, I would take
Bama over A and M. Still give me Ohio State

(01:19:47):
over Indiana. Now, some of you who were watching the
entire live show, you noticed I picked Michigan to beat
Ohio State. That is a principled stance. I'm taking the
model overwhelmingly thinks Ohio State is going to be in
the Big Ten title game and that they would win
over Indiana. So I'll stick with that for now. When
it comes to my prediction, I'm either guaranteed to be

(01:20:07):
right or guaranteed to be wrong, depending on your perspective
on that approach. Texas Tech against Brigham Young in the
Big twelve Championship game is what I'm going to stick with.
I will take Texas Tech over Brigham Young. I'm sticking
with that. ACC Championship game has changed every week. I
challenge anyone who picked SMU over Virginia in the preseason

(01:20:29):
or even three weeks ago to step forward, because that's
what I have now. I have SMU over Virginia, And
out of just curiosity, I asked FanDuel who would be
favored against those teams? And Penn State, one of those
teams is probably gonna win the ACC Championship. It's either

(01:20:50):
SMU or Virginia. Do you understand Penn State would be
over a field goal favored against either one of them.
That's the current state of the ACC. I digress out
of those results and the way that I think the
at larges would fall here is my current seating for
the playoff. I'd have Ohio State the Big ten champ
at number one, Indiana Big Ten runner up number two.

(01:21:13):
If Alabama wins the SEC championship, there's no question about this,
they're vaulting into the top four. I'd put them at
number three. And I don't think Texas A and M's
falling out of it, so I'd put them at number four.
So we got the Big ten couple and the SEC
couple in there. Those are the teams that get the
first round bys. Important to note, even though I don't
have it listed here. If A and M were to

(01:21:33):
beat Alabama, I think Texas text getting the four spot
and they'd get a first round by if they win
the Big twelve. So I got Big twelve CHANMP Texas
Tech at five right now. That's very important for seeding
and for matchups in the first round. Rather Georgia at six,
Oregon at seven, Ole Miss at eight, Oklahoma at nine,
and Notre Dame at ten, I think the strength of

(01:21:56):
schedule would bump Notre Dame down there to ten. This
is with minimal chaos, by the way, any kind of
added chaos could throw this all in a blender. I
got SMU winn the ACC they're the eleven seed, and
I've got John Sumrawl in Tulane winning the American and
being the highest rinked G five Conference champ and I've
got TWU Lane at twelve. Here's what that would do

(01:22:17):
to the bracket. That would give us paper pop hand
drawn bracket here in my hand. That would give us
Oklahoma at ole Miss in the first round. That would
give us Tulane at Texas Tech in the first round.
That would give us Notre Dame at Oregon in the
first round, and that would give us SMU at Georgia

(01:22:38):
in the first round. I would take Ole Miss to
beat Oklahoma again because they already beat him in Norman,
and so we're trying to find out, first off, who's
coaching ole Miss. Secondly, how deep in the playoffs can
Old Miss go well? I at least have him going
to the second round against Ohio State. I would take
Texas Tech over Tulane in the first round. They're in Lubbock,

(01:22:59):
they go on to face time Texas A and M.
Give me Oregon over Notre Dame. That game's in Eugene.
That's tough, man, that's a peaking Oregon team. By the way,
I'm counting on Oregon to be playing their best ball
and to be the healthiest they've been and getting the
whole playoff game there, I think matters a whole lot.
So I would take Oregon over Notre Dame, and I

(01:23:20):
would take Georgia over SMU second round games, Ohio State
over Ole Miss. I would take A and M over
Texas Tech. Give me Oregon over Indiana again, this requires
Oregon getting healthy and hot at the right time. And
I would take Alabama over Georgia. I would take Alabama

(01:23:42):
over Oregon. That mainly is because, like I've told you,
I predicted Alabama to win the national title in the preseason.
I have to like definitively be convinced that I'm wrong
to come off of that. So if I had to
pick this thing from scratch, probably wouldn't have Bama over
Georgia right now. Probably wouldn't have Bama over Oregon right now.
But I'm not picking it from scratch. People remember sound

(01:24:03):
bites and snapshots, and just in the semi unlikely event
that I'm right, I just want the snapshot to be remembered.
Give me Ohio State over Texas A and M, and
I'll keep Alabama over Ohio State National title although, like
I will fully admit, if Ohio State's good enough to
get to the national title game, it's going to be
really tough to see anyone beating them, because if they
get to the national title game, that means everything we

(01:24:24):
thought about them, everything we saw from them this year
was right. And I don't really care if it's Bama
or whoever standing in their way. I would actually like
Georgia matching up with them the best right now. But
that's the way the bracket is falling. A couple of
more things here and we will be on our way. Jesse,
we could have gone two hours tonight. We are well,
we're not lucky. You guys are lucky. I've got really

(01:24:46):
good news. I'm about to give away a ton of money. Yeah,
I got your attention. Well, FanDuel is going to give
it away for me. So we do this occasionally. It's
a reward for people who are watching the entire show.
I'm gonna give you twenty f four hours, So even
if you're watching the replay, don't freak out. Look in
the live chat right now, or look in the show
description whenever you're watching the show in the next twenty

(01:25:08):
four hours. There's a form there. Fill it out. Twenty
five of you are about to get one hundred dollars
in bonus bets dropped in your account. We're going to
give you about twenty four hours, so you don't have
to hurry, you don't have to trip over everyone to
do it. But fill that form out if you're, of
course a FanDuel customer. If you're not, sign up FanDuel
dot com slash Josh Pate and then fill out the

(01:25:28):
form and we're gonna just twenty five of you will
check your account sometime tomorrow or the next day, and
there will be one hundred extra dollars in there in
bonus bets. And you'll wonder where did this come from.
It came from us. It came from peyt State by
way a FanDuel, and we appreciate them, and we appreciate
you guys. They are the exclusive odds provider of the show,

(01:25:48):
and we make them give you free stuff as much
as possible, as often as possible.

Speaker 2 (01:25:53):
It must be twenty one plus and present in select states.
For Kansas, in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or eighteen
plus and press in DC. First online real money wager
only five dollars first deposit required. Bonus issued as non
withdrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions
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(01:26:16):
slash RG call one eight eight eight seven eight nine
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chat in Connecticut, or visit nd gamblinghelp dot org in Maryland.
Hope is here, visit gambling Helplinema dot org or call
eight hundred three two seven fifty fifty for twenty four
seven support in Massachusetts. Or call one eight seven seven
eight Hope, n Y. Or text Hope n Y. In

(01:26:37):
New York.

Speaker 1 (01:26:38):
I am going to give you three more best bets
on the Ramanoudle Express here. One of them has already
been posted Missouri minus two and a half. Okay, the
next three that we're gonna add tonight Coastal Carolina plus
twenty two and a half against James Madison Love Illinois
minus six and a half this week, and I'm gonna

(01:26:58):
take Arizona State. Kenny Dillingham or is anyone listening Kenny
watches the show, I'm gonna take Arizona State all of
a sudden, A ranked matchup against Arizona so in conclusion
because the graphic didn't work there Missouri minus two and
a half, Coastal Carolina plus twenty two and a half,
Illinois minus six and a half, Arizona State plus one
and a half. We will probably do Friday Night Lines

(01:27:22):
on Thursday night. I'll probably do it on Thanksgiving Night,
and I will do that because a lot of games
are on Friday. So pay attention to the socials. And
if you're unfamiliar with what that is, it is something
I do exclusively on Instagram Live. It's where I pull
out the model. The live chats really lit up. We
have a couple thousand people watching, and I just I
basically like riff on what the model says about games

(01:27:45):
that we're not betting, or maybe games that we are betting.
I always add best bets during Friday Night Lines every week.
This year we've added something, so you gotta be watching
that to get the full card. I will tell you
when we're going to do it sometime Wednesday or Thursday,
so be following on the socials at Josh pate C
and I'll let you know. And then you'll see us
on the sideline at Jordan Hare Stadium Saturday, and I'll

(01:28:06):
get you a lot of good behind the scenes exclusive
content there and then we'll be back up here Sunday
to talk about it all. Sunday's going to be an
explosive show. I'm just telling you go ahead and get
ready for it. We are going to be reacting to
rivalry game outcomes. We'll have conference championship matchups set, Coaches
will have been fired, coaches are going to be hired.

(01:28:29):
I think announcements are coming. Some announcements are going to
come before Sunday, so check the channel. Cause like if
if LSU were to make an announcement before Sunday, I'll
probably put a reaction video up on the channel. Just
there's no predicting what's about to happen. It has never
been more important for you to be subscribed to the
channel and get ten of your friends, not even five,
get ten of your friends to subscribe as well. We're

(01:28:51):
right on the doorstep of five hundred K. Appreciate you guys,
so much from all of us to you have a
happy and safe Thanksgiving. Remember remember we don't have to
stuff ourselves until we're in a food coma. You can
back away. I've got some very interesting literature slash Instagram
reels that I can send some of you. If you

(01:29:12):
need to be fat shamed at the right time on Thanksgiving,
I can take care of it for you, but we
need to do that privately. For producer Jesse, for director Bradley,
I'm Josh Fate. We'll see you back here Sunday, but
keep it locked because something could happen at any moment.
Until then, take care and God bless.

Speaker 2 (01:29:43):
Must be twenty one plus and present in select states
for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or eighteen
plus and present in DC. First online real money wager
only five dollars first deposit required. Bonus issued us non
withdrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply.
See terms at sportsbook dot FanDuel dot com Gambling Problem
Call one eight hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot com

(01:30:05):
slash RG call one eight eight eight seven eight nine
seventy seven seventy seven, or visit CCPG dot org slash
chat in Connecticut, or visit nd Gamblinghelp dot org. In Maryland.
Hope is here, visit gambling heelplinema dot org, or call
eight hundred three two seven fifty fifty for twenty four
seven support in Massachusetts. Or call one eight seven seven
eight Hope n Y. Or text Hope NY in New

(01:30:27):
York

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