CFP Rankings Reaction + Week 11 Predictions & Coaching Search Intel

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:16):
Where else would you rather be? I mean, what else
could you possibly be talking about in November. We've got
rankings upon us, We've got big games coming up to predict.
We've got multiple coaching searches. We haven't even invented a
plural form of search around here. SI, I don't know.
We got all that going on. We're jam packed. We're

(00:36):
high a top, a very uneasy downtown Nashville, Tennessee. Not
for bad reasons, just because we're not certain of many
things right now. We're not certain of how we ranked teams.
We're not certain of who's going to be a coach
at Auburn or Penn State or Florida or LSU next year.
We're not certain who's gonna win Saturday. And yet in
some twisted way, it's all beautiful. Yes, we've got a

(00:57):
lot to talk about tonight. The playoff rankings just got
dropped in our life. I will react. We've got coaching searches,
and I haven't spoken about some of them in a
couple of shows. So I'm gonna get you the latest
latest hoof beats, if you will. We've been tracking it.
We've been tracking it. Whatever I can talk about on air,
I will talk about we've got game previews because it

(01:17):
is a prediction Tuesday around here, and I've got a
brand new JP pole out some very surprising dare I say,
shocking movement in the JP pole. But and I'm gonna
talk about this playoff rankings in just a second, or
these playoff rankings in just a second, Maybe it's not shocking.
Maybe in some new twist, the committee got a hold

(01:38):
of the JP pole community. Maybe I don't know who
knows anymore, who knows anything anymore. I know they're watching
us in Alvin, Texas. I believe that's home of Nolan
Ryan could be a friend of the program. They're watching
us in Rocky Mount, Virginia, Rotterdam, that's in the Netherlands, Jesse.
They're watching us there. And Akron, Ohio. Please listen to

(01:59):
me very closely. Please do me a favor. The other
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you remember when you said that the other night, I
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(02:22):
for reminding me till I'm telling you once more there
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Our traffic indicates over half of our viewers are not
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(02:43):
you're subscribed, and if you're not, click it. That's it.
That's all, the end period. Thank you so much. In advance.
Here we go, let me till the laptop of Okay,
now here we go. College Football Playoff Rankings, version one
of the twenty twenty five season I have dropped tonight.
The top six are all SEC Big ten, which, as

(03:05):
we know, means crippling amounts of bias in this thing sarcasm.
But there are three Big twelve teams in the top thirteen,
and that, to me is the biggest news item here
so far. Because I was being told as recently as
this week Big twelve one bid league. Did you tell
the committee that now the ACC may very well be

(03:27):
a one bid league. But josh, they've got five teams
in the top twenty five. Yes, the highest ranked team
is fourteenth, though, and it's Virginia. And then there's Louisville
at fifteen. Georgia Tech's at seventeen, more on them in
a second. Miami's at eighteen. Fairly shocking to me. I
gotta be honest with you. I didn't think they'd be
that low. And then you've got Pitt down there at

(03:49):
twenty four. So what was the big thing? Remember, all
the way back in March, all the way back in
the spring, the big thing about the playoff committee was
they were going to overhaul the criteria. And I just
kept sitting here and I kept on saying, we'll see,
We'll see. You're gonna take strength of schedule more seriously.
You're gonna take record strength more seriously. So seriously, you're

(04:11):
gonna invent a new metric, record strength, which is basically
how you give someone credit for beating really good teams,
and you minimize the penalty for losing against really good teams,
and you also minimize the reward for beating bad teams,
which means if you schedule up and you lose, it's
not the end of the world, and if you load
up on cream puffs, then you win. It's not a

(04:31):
guarantee that you're gonna make it. It sounds great, I'm
all for it. I told you at the time, I'm
all for it. Let's see it put in practice. Well,
this is the first glimpse that we get of how
it's going to be put in practice. So I was
watching the rankings release earlier tonight and I heard Michaelroy
say something that I agreed with. I thought Georgia Tech
was maybe the most important team in this whole thing,

(04:53):
because Georgia Tech's schedule is trash, but they've won every
game they've played except one. They just lost the f
game last week. So this time last year, the committee
would probably have them top ten or somewhere near the
top ten. So if you're going to take strength of
record and schedule metrics a little more seriously or a

(05:13):
lot more seriously, this year, you needed to see Georgia
Tech outside the top fifteen. So no knock against them.
It's nothing personal against them. I've been mister Georgia Tech
the whole year. But if we remove the logo and
my affinity for the program, Georgia Tech shouldn't be in
the top fifteen. Well there they were, all the way
down at seventeen. That's fair, that's okay. Iowa at twentieth,

(05:36):
I thought was another little blinking red light. Just a
little bit about the inverse, the opposite side of that coin. See,
Iowa's got two losses, but one of those losses is
to Iowa State. That's a tough game on the road,
rivalry game early in the year. We were there for
that one, and the other one we weren't there for.
It was the Indiana game. Indiana's number two right now,

(05:58):
I got no problem with that. Iowa played them closer
than anyone has. What was it a five point game, Jesse,
Iowa played them to within one possession. So, according to
record strength metrics, which is a new bit of criteria
and the equation this year, part of record strength is
how well do you do against your schedule. It's very simple,

(06:19):
and part of that is we're going to minimize the
penalty for losing competitive games to really good teams. So
Iowa lost a competitive game to a really good Indiana team. Well,
there they are. They're sitting there number twenty. Now that
compared to the AP where the Iowah Hawkeyes are unranked

(06:39):
is very notable to me because that shows the committee
maybe changing their viewpoint up a little bit from just
this group over here that only cares what your win
loss record is aka the AP aka what the committee
largely thought like as recently as last year. So the
other thing that I think a bunch of people had
their eye on me including was how Miami and Notre

(07:01):
Dame compared in the first rankings release, because what do
we have on the surface, Well, we got a couple
of two loss teams and they've played on a field
already this year, not a neutral field, but they played
already this year and Miami won. All right, so you
just kind of say it out loud. Are their records
the same? Yes? Have they played, Yes, what was the outcome?

(07:25):
Miami won the game. Okay, Miami should be ranked higher.
That was the You know, it was one lane of
logic going into this. Not even close, not even close.
Not only is Notre Dame ahead of Miami. Notre Dame
was tenth tonight, Miami was eighteenth. That turns out Notre
Dame would have to lose a third game to come

(07:45):
close to dropping beneath Miami, and this surprised me. I'm
not shocked that Notre Dame was above them, I am
shocked Miami is that low. I almost feel like the
Committee is a little pissed off at Miami because you
believe in them and you're ready to rank them high,
and they just they do what they did against Louisville.

(08:06):
Then they do again what they did against SMU, And
I don't know how to explain this. I don't know
how to quantify this. I feel like some people in
for instance, in the prediction world, like if I predict
Miami to win the ACC in the preseason, or or
let's say I tweet out, hey, Miami looks different than
any team in the country, and then they lay a

(08:26):
couple of eggs, it makes me look like an idiot.
So then if I'm ranking them, you know, I could
just like grip my pencil hard and bump them way
now because I'm punishing them because they didn't fulfill on
my expectation. Now that's not supposed to be part of
this equation. The only way I can make sense of
this is I really think some committee members looked at
Miami and said, shame on you. We had higher expectations

(08:47):
for you in the preseason than we did for a
Vandy or a Georgia Tech or a Virginia or whatnot.
So we're gonna bump you down a little bit further,
you know, because you're just not playing up to your potential. Well,
that's not really part of the equation. And so Miami, Look,
I got no problem with them not being top ten,
but they're not top fifteen either. They're eighteenth, and I
don't really know what their road back is because ironically

(09:09):
their best win is Notre Dame. And for a while
it was thought that Miami would be a barrier to
entry for Notre Dame because the thinking was, all right,
if they're going to have the same record and there's
a head to head result, Notre Dame can't go any
higher than Miami. Is that was just blown out of
the water in the first version by the committee. And

(09:29):
I was listening to a lot of the talk on
the set there, and they're right in what they said.
It's very very clear that the committee valued their eyeball test,
and the committee also valued the trajectory of these teams.
One of them seems to be headed up the other
seems to be headed down. I couldn't care less about that.
If Miami's headed down, then they'll keep losing games, and

(09:53):
at that point you can punish them. And if Notre
Dame's headed up, they'll continue to win games, and at
that point you can reward them. I really could care less.
And this goes for me too, if I were on
the committee. I don't care what I think a team's
trajectory is. That's for the future to decide. That's for
them to decide on the field. When I'm supposed to
be going by is the here and now. And so

(10:15):
you know, it'd be one thing too if like Notre
Dame had loaded up on great wins. Because I'm not
a you are what your record says. You are a guy,
I'm not all about just the wins and losses. But
their best win is against usc which is a very
good win. But then again, Miami's best win is against you,
So anyway, that surprised me a little bit. I'm not
sitting here stumping from Miami too hard because they've had

(10:36):
just these inexplicable performances and they don't really deserve a
whole lot of credit right now. I also just think
they deserve maybe to be a little higher than eighteen. Also,
and I don't ever hear them talk about this. Could
it be that early games are weighted differently. This is
not an official part of the Playoff Committee criteria, yet

(10:56):
we see it borne out every year. It's just like
widely understood that if you lose early you're punished less
than if you lose late. But it's not written as
far as I know, it's not written into the Committee protocol.
All right, look at Oregon there, Organ's at number nine.
Do you think Oregon is in an interesting spot? Oregon

(11:16):
is three spots below what they are in the AP
poll in the Committee rankings, kind of the opposite of Iowa.
Iowa was higher than they are in the AP and
Oregon is lower than what they are in the AP. Now,
if Oregon wins out, that doesn't mean anything. Let's just
walk through a scenario right quick. Let's say Oregon goes

(11:36):
on the run, wins Saturday. Not going to be easy.
They're a six and a half point favorite at Iowa.
The forecast is horrendous. Weather forecast is horrendous for that game.
More on that later in the show. But let's say
they go win and then they win against Minnesota, but
they lose to either USC or Washington. So they're a

(11:58):
ten and two team. What's the best win. The best
win will have been at Iowa, maybe either one of
these games USC or at Washington. Those may or may
not be ranked teams at the end of the year.
My point here is that game right there, that Penn

(12:18):
State game, was supposed to be their crowning achievement. That
win on the road at Penn State was supposed to
be the one Oregon could hang their hat on. And
so if they got on bubble alert and they were
being compared against two loss teams or maybe even some
three loss Oklahoma that's got multiple quality wins, it was
all gonna be fine because Oregon, even if God forbid,

(12:38):
they lose two games, as long as they win a
Penn State game, they're good. That may not be the
case here. That may not be the case now. It
would take some of their remaining scheduled teams losing some
games for them to not have any ranked wins. But
there is a world where Oregon goes ten to two
and they don't have any ranked wins. And this is
what really really angers me about this stuff because every

(12:59):
single year we get to the end of the road
and there's a team that I think has a real
quality win that is not being counted as a quality win.
And this year that quality win could very well be
Oregon on the road at Penn State, because people are
going to look and they're gonna say, Wow, Penn State
ended up losing what like five games or something like that.
That was a bad team. Penn State got killed by Oregon.

(13:21):
Penn State's season got killed by Oregon. You will never
convince me if Penn State wins that game in overtime
that they then go on to lose to UCLA and
Northwestern the next couple of weeks. There's no way that
would have happened. I don't even think anyone who hates
Oregon disagrees with me there. So my question is always

(13:42):
if Penn State only ended up being a dead team
because Oregon killed them, then they weren't a dead team
when Oregon played them in Happy Valley, no less in
a white out. And so if that's the case, why
wouldn't I give Oregon the kind of credit you would
give a team for beating someone in the top fifteen
on the road instead of retroactively removing credit because of

(14:05):
what they inflicted on that team. I've always thought that way,
So I've always been of the opinion that you should
semi crystallize the value of a game, whether it's a
win or a loss, when it happens, and only rarely
should you go back and redefine it. And most cases,
the only time you should be going back and redefining

(14:26):
the value or lack thereof of a win is if
you beat someone early in the year that everyone thinks
it's no good, but then they end up being like
ten and two, so you didn't get credit early on,
and then they made a run and you look back
and say, whoa You remember when A defeated b in
week two and no one talked about it. Turns out
that was a really good win. If that's the case,

(14:46):
I don't care about retroactively adding credit, but I'm very
careful about retroactively removing credit. Now, that doesn't mean that's
a blanket policy. Give you a perfect example. Last year,
Georgia Tech beat Florida State in Week one. FSU was
preseason top ten. Okay, then everybody beat Florida State and

(15:07):
it wasn't just cause Georgia Tech killed him, so this
was not an Oregon Penn State situation. So yeah, in retrospect, no,
I'm not really given Georgia Tech the kind of credit
you would give for beating a top ten team on
a neutral site. Yes, there are exceptions, but my general
rule is I've got a lot of issues with people
going back and nitpicking and removing credit, in large part

(15:27):
because what happened to a team from that point forward
may have a lot to do with what you put
on them that night. So that's always been a problem
I've had. You taugh at thirteen is a big deal.
I mean, the Big Twelve having three in the top
thirteen screams to me that may very well be a
two bid. League Number seven plays number eight this Saturday.
We will be there on the sidelines in Lubbock, Texas.

(15:50):
I always slip that in because I'm very proud that
we get to go to the biggest game in the
country every week. But you taugh at thirteen kind of
matches up with what I've been telling you. The model
keeps picking up on that. I mean, we've got Utah
Power rated as the best team in the Big twelve.
Not that that matters. That's not what this should be.
I'm not gonna go over the whole rankings versus ratings thing.

(16:11):
I'm just saying that to say people left Utah for
dead after they lost the Brigham Young game. And it
may be that in the Big twelve title race, maybe
they're on the outside looking in. There's no maybe they
are on the outside looking in. But unlike the popular
thinking a couple of weeks ago, which was you either
need to win the Big twelve or lose in the

(16:33):
conference title game to hopefully get a spot, Utah could
just straight up being at large team. Utah could do
what Georgia may do. Georgia doesn't need to play in
Atlanta to make the playoff. Oregon doesn't need to play
in Indie to make the playoff. You're used to thinking
that way in the SEC, in the Big Ten, Utah

(16:53):
may end up thinking that way. And I'm telling you
right now, if Utah gets in the playoff, Utah is
going to be a very dangerous team. So Texas, oh
you eleven twelve? What you think about that? The live
chat is up in arms about it. I saw a
lot of people saying, oh Texas, Texas at eleven is laughable.

(17:13):
Listen to me. Listen, everyone listening. If it's laughable, you
don't have to worry about it. I assume by saying
Texas at eleven is laughable means you don't think that
they're really deserving of the number eleven spot. That's okay,
it's fine. Need I remind you, Texas still goes on
the road to play number five, and they play number

(17:35):
three at home to end the year. So if Texas
is a fraud, Texas will be exposed. I have a
question for you, just like I have for oh you
at twelve. Oh you has to go on the road
to play number four in a couple of weeks. I
forget the rest of Oklahoma schedule. It's not easy. My
question is, as it was in the spring, how likely

(17:58):
is it that a three loss SEC team makes it
into the playoff. I think the default answer is always
unlikely until proven otherwise. But we got a couple of
two loss SEC teams right here at eleven and twelve.
Texas is over OU because of the head to head,
I assume, which is fair. So let's say Texas right there,
they're number eleven already. Let's say they were to go

(18:21):
on the road beat Georgia in Athens next week. That
would bump them up. I assume Jesse well into the
top ten. And what if their last action in the
season is a close loss on the road Well in
Austin to Texas A and M an undefeated A and M, Like,

(18:41):
what if that's their last loss? And the committee is
sitting here steadily telling us going into that last weekend,
Texas is in the top ten and we're valuing record strength,
which minimizes punishment for losses to elite teams. And let's
say Texas is like number seven and they lose twenty

(19:01):
four to twenty one to A and M. Are they
dropping out because they're a three loss team? That's my question,
Just like with OU, give me ou' schedule right quick, Bradley,
So Oklahoma right now is a two loss team. Let's
say they go to Tuscaloosa next weekend, lose twenty seven
to twenty four, and then their final two actions are

(19:22):
to beat Missouri and to beat LSU, And so they're
a three loss team. Where are they kind of depends
on where Texas is. I would assume I think the
Texas may be the more likely scenario. At the moment,
Texas making the playoff out of those two, being a
three loss up here is the more likely. But each
of them could lose to a top five team on
the road like that. They're sitting on the bubble supposedly

(19:44):
right now, each of them they're only of additional loss,
Like there's a scenario where their additional loss is a
top five road loss. That could happen. So I don't
think the door is slammed on I think the door's
wide open on two Big twelve teams. I don't think
the door is slammed on a three loss SEC team
making it in here. I'm very curious about how the

(20:05):
committee will treat a ten and two Oregon, especially depending
on how Washington and USC play the rest of the year.
I don't know what Miami's path is right now. They
just need to go win a bunch of games. That's
their path. But that whole Notre Dame Miami thing's a
little interesting look. Not an agregious set of rankings here

(20:26):
at all. I actually think they did a halfway decent job.
But long way to go. November longest month of the year.
Long way to go, no matter how far you have
to go, quick Trip can fuel you. Hey, do you
see the scandal today? Jesse on Twitter formally Twitter, I
don't even call it X I call it formerly Twitter.

(20:46):
So quick Trip Joe is our liaison, if you will.
When I need to talk to quick Trip, I talk
to quit Trip Joe QT Joe as he is listed
in my phone. Normally, when I'm perusing around the Internet
and someone hits me up and says, hey, I need
some free gas, and I decide to give them a
free tank of gas, which I have the power to do,

(21:07):
the power granted to me by quick Trip. I'll say, hey,
quick Trip, give Jack a free tank of gas, and
then the quick Trip account will come in and say
at Jack one, two, three, five six, check your DMS,
We're giving you some free gas. That's the way it works.
It's a really powerful feeling. That's not the way it
worked today. Today. I have it on good authority from

(21:29):
QT headquarters that QT Joe was walking into a meeting
I gave away a free tank of gas. He saw
it and from his own personal account said DM me
QT Joe outed himself today. It's what I'm trying to
tell you. So there was once upon a time on
this show. People didn't even think Jesse was a real person,
and then we proved that wrong. And people really think

(21:53):
Colin wasn't a real person because Colin's disappeared. Allegedly, Colin
has not disappeared. Director Colin is alive and well and
still doing exactly what he was doing, just at a
different company than we are at the moment. And lately
they thought QT Joe was a figment or pigment of
my imagination. No, he's very real as this quick trip.

(22:13):
So because of them, we will head to Lubbock, Texas Saturday,
and we will be there with the rest of the
free world at Brigham Young, Texas Tech. The new Fall
Don't Lie Tour T shirt that honors that trip is
available right now. It's available one week only. People paidstatemateial
dot com the Fall Don't Lie Tour the Lubbock edition.

(22:36):
That t shirt. It tops off any wardrobe, any wardrobe.
We're happy to We're happy to wear it, we're happy
to sell it. So I'm going to get to a
lot of predictions tonight. I will predict that game, among
several others. I'd like to welcome everyone in. Please remember

(22:57):
there is so much going on right now. Got to
subscribe to the channel. I don't know how much planar
I can beg. Here's how much Planer I can beg.
Please subscribe. We want to get to five hundred thousand
before Thanksgiving. Our reputation really depends on it at this point.
So that's it, and that's all. Just subscribe. I mean

(23:17):
thousands of you have been doing it per day, so
it's not like you're not doing it. Just the remaining holdouts.
That's who I'm talking to. The LSU coaching search continues,
and dare I paper pop. The alignment has been a
buzzword down in Baton Rouge. Well, we got a new
president on board. Now. This guy's name is Wade Rus.

(23:39):
His last name is spelled Roussee. I was watching some
of the local news reports now I'm there, and some
of the anchors took the strategy that I used to take.
I used to be a news anchor in Columbus, Georgia,
and they'd throw all kinds of names at me with
no phonetic guide, no pronunciation. And so what I would
do with a last name like this is I would

(24:00):
I would just do every possible phonetic pronunciation, like my
news report what's not like this. LSU hired a new
president today, Wade Ruse takes over. Rause met with the
media today and here's what Rose had to say, because
I'm gonna get it right at some point, and I
heard some of the local reports down there do something similar,
so I picked up what you guys were putting down.

(24:23):
But that's not all. Also, athletic director Verge Asperry, he
is now permanent, rip the interim tag off. Verge has
been there forever. He's been there since the colors were
actually decided on being purple and gold. So we got
people who know LSU, and we've got we've got alignment,
we got the tumblers starting to fall into place, we
got a search committee put together, and it's November fourth. Okay,

(24:47):
it's time to go to work. Now, it's time to
go get ourselves a head coach. It's not going to
be Nick Saban. Last night my phone blew up with
matters It never should have been blown up in reference
to However, I understand how the message board culture works.
So I had to spend a solid seven and a
half minutes of my evening last night confirming Saban's not

(25:09):
getting back into coaching and he's not going to LSU.
I accomplished that pretty quickly and pretty definitively, So no Saban. However,
beyond that, the lane Kiffin name is out there. Uh,
the lane Kiffin name's funny because no decision is ready
to be made. Doesn't matter if he doesn't want to
come or he doesn't want to come. There's just there's

(25:29):
no decision to be had right now. And I'm gonna
tell you why because lane Kiffin is in the middle
of a playoff run right now. So I know there's
some rumors floating around that he's been very turned off
by the political theater that we all saw last week.
Of course he was turned off by that. That's not rumor,
it's fact. Who's turned on by that? LSU fans hated it,

(25:50):
like who would possibly be turned on? That's the bad news.
Here's the good news. I repeat, It's November fourth, So
if the governor keeps his mouth shut public about this,
you're not gonna hear another thing about him and about
this for the next month, and you're gonna get a
legitimate search put together and it's gonna have a month's

(26:10):
worth of steam behind it. And then Lane's gonna finish
this season. At least there's regular season, and then when
it comes time in late November early December for the
actual in person interview to happen, if you choose to
have one, and if he agrees to have one, that's
really when the decision will be made. I am telling

(26:30):
you my opinion on this has not changed. I don't
think Lin Kiffen knows whether he's gonna take that job
if it gets offered to him. I think there's a
lot of theoretical it's fifty thousand foot stuff, it's floating around.
There is no shame in just waiting it out. Let's
just see how it settles. Let's see how Verge does
in the AD's role. Let's see how involved person AB

(26:52):
or C is in this search. Let's see how I
feel in a month. Let's see how my season finishes.
Let's see if they're okay with me making a deep
into January, or if they want a guy named by
mid December. Like, there are a million different variables. You
don't have to have it figured out right now, and
I don't think Lane does, and I don't think LSU does.
That search in many ways is just now starting. What

(27:13):
that doesn't mean is people don't have opinions on coaches.
But there's a big difference in having an opinion on
a coach, you know, like, hey, I think drink could
do really good there. I think some roll to do
really good there. That's not a search, that's an opinion.
A search has fifteen different layers to it, really like
fifteen hundred different layers to it. So that hasn't begun yet.
But let me toss a theoretical to you, and this

(27:35):
could just as easily apply at other places. How long
are you willing to wait? How long is LSU willing
to wait? Let's say they identify option A. Let's say
it's Lane Kiffin for an example. How long are you
willing to wait? Let's say it's Marcus Freeman. That'd be
the guy I contacted before anyone, by the way, how
long are you willing to wait? So let's say my

(27:55):
option A is Marcus Freeman. Let's even say I know
he's seventy five percent willing to come. That is a
number I pulled out of thin air. I know nothing
about how attracted Marcus Freeman is to the LSU job,
but let's say he was how long am I willing
to wait? So a couple of scenarios here. Scenario one,

(28:16):
I identify one of those guys my option A, and
he's Option A by a mile, but he's gonna go
all the way to the National Title Game. Am I
willing to wait until the third week in January because
he's my slam dunk option A? Or am I making
that a non starter? Am I looking at it and saying,
you know, if he makes the playoff but gets eliminated

(28:37):
first round, we'll hire him. Maybe even if he gets
eliminated second round, we'll hire him. But if it goes
past that, Ah, because we got that window in early January,
we got to have a coach in place by them.
Is that how important that window is? I'm asking? Now,
there's another scenario there. What if you've got an option A.
What if my option as freeman, my option be's Kiffin

(28:59):
and there's not a lot of separation in my mind
between the two and Marcus is headed the National Title
Game and Kiffin gets eliminated first round? Am I willing
to just say forget this man, just call Lane, let's
get it done. If he's willing to come. How that
plays out? At Penn State, or at Florida, or at
Auburn or at LSU's really fascinating to me because we

(29:22):
just haven't seen this kind of atmosphere, Like we haven't
seen this kind of climate. I guess is a better
way to put it. Lately. I'm just telling you, unaligned
LSU is a very scary LSU. There's the hot board,
according to NACOS, and it's got Kiffing on it. It's
got Freeman on at, Kenny Dillingham, Jeff Brahm, Eli drinkwitzs Clark, Lee,
Brent Key, some raw, Joe Brady. I am firmly convinced

(29:44):
there are names out there that are really big that
are not even listed on that board, that would be
very attracted to an offer from a fully aligned LSU.
But they got to be convinced about the alignment. And
that's really not something you do in newspaper articles. What
is in nineteen ninety seven not really anything you do
in press conferences. That's something you do face to face,
eye to eye, and you lay it all out. Here's

(30:06):
how it's gonna work. Here the guarantees we're gonna give you,
Here are the resources you're gonna have here's who is
and isn't gonna be involved in the day to day
around here. That's alignment. If you've got it at LSU,
aren't many jobs better? Let's move on. Speaking of LSU
got big games this weekend. LSU plays VAMA Saturday night,
seven point thirty in Tuscaloosa Kaylen de Bor fifteen and

(30:29):
two off of by This game presented by Academy Sports
and Outdoors as they often are around here. A lot
of academies in Tuscaloosa. We actually stay next to one
in the hotel we stay at when we go there.
So BAM has won twelve or fourteen in this series.
Most of that was Nick Saban, However last year it
was Kaylen de Boor. I remember that game last year

(30:50):
firstly because we were there. Secondly because that's really the
night that the end began for Brian Kelly. We couldn't
have known that at the time. We kind of could have,
but we didn't know that at the time. Yeah, maybe
we did. Hmm. General expectation that I have for this
game is I expect I expect the most fight you've

(31:12):
seen out of LSU all year. So that doesn't guarantee
anything in terms of outcome. But if anyone out there
is thinking to themselves sort of the generic oh coach
got fired, seasons mailed in. Sometimes that happens. I cannot
in strong enough terms express to you how much disdain
some people in that building had for the predecessor, and

(31:34):
how much love they have for Frank Wilson. Therefore, how
over the cliff they're ready to go for him. So
they may lose by thirty. They may win outright, but
if they lose by thirty, I highly doubt it's going
to be because LSU showed up unprepared to play and
unprepared to just light the hair on fire if that's
what it takes. So if I'm Alabama, I'm preparing for

(31:55):
a fastball under my chin from LSU. Now talk about
the actual matchup. This is a piece of paper. We
all know football games are not playing on paper. We
could pop the paper, but we can't play on the paper. However,
we can have some things written on the paper, and
I'm looking at some things right now as it relates
to the LSU Alabama matchup. It doesn't look good for LSU.

(32:18):
So the question becomes, how does LSU wad the paper up?
How do they change the dynamics here? How do they
change the paradigm in this game? Let me give you
a couple of them. Alabama's run defense seventy third in
the country. You can run on Alabama, but LSU can't
run on anyone, or at least they haven't been able
to one hundred and twenty fourth in the country. So

(32:39):
there's one glaring area where you should be able to
maybe maybe have an edge on Alabama, maybe start tilting
the game in your favor a little bit. But if
you're incapable, it doesn't matter. And then Bama's pass defense
twelfth in the country. So I mean LSU, they've tried
to make a living throwing the ball. That's Bama's strength defensively.

(33:01):
They've not been able to run the ball. Well, that's
Bama's relative weakness defensively. How do you wand that paper up?
How do you just basically start two point zero version
of your season? They kind of mirror each other the
teams do. There's one critical difference. When Bama hasn't been
able to run the ball, they've still been able to
throw it. They've been able to scale a passing attack.

(33:22):
LSU has not always been able to do that. I
think Alabama shot at a national title right now sort
of rests in the theory that they haven't peaked yet.
A lot of them talk about that around there. If
you've listened to them coming out of their bye week,
a lot of them keep talking about how we haven't
put our full game together yet. You know, we haven't
played our best football. That's a hallmark of any contending team.

(33:44):
They normally peak late in the year. Ohio State Classic
example of that last year. There are two examples here
where that could be true. Okay, Firstly, they're in the
one hundreds in rush yards per game and that's been
a huge focus in Tuscaloosa over the last well by
game time it will be thirteen days. They've only had

(34:06):
one one hundred yard rusher this whole season, and I
think that was jam Miller against Vanderbilt, if I'm not mistaken.
So that is something obviously if they're going to go anywhere,
like if they're really going to get the job done,
compete for a national title, They're not going to be
an elite rushing attack, but they can be better than
they've been. They've got to be, and there's got to
be at least enough there. And then the second thing

(34:28):
is something you would think is there, but it hasn't
been explosive passes, passes of twenty plus yards in the air.
They've had some, they hadn't had a ton of them.
Ty Simpsons blow fifty percent on that front. And I
just I look at the skill they have. I look
at the speed they have and the versatility they have
in the wide receiver room. I look at the talent

(34:49):
they have at quarterback. That should be better, and I
think it can be better. And getting lots heer Brooks
healthier and Isaiah Horton back, which they should have both
for Saturday, that will go a long way in that.
But remember they struggle with Texas A and m Marcel
Reid ran all over the place, struggle with Vandy Pavia
got his on the ground, Trinidad Chambliss ran very successfully.

(35:11):
Those are mobile quarterbacks. Ty Simpson can make some plays
with his legs, but that's not an integral part of
Alabama's offense. It's mainly a traditional offense in that sense
at least. So you got to throw the ball to
beat Blake Baker here, You're going to be able to
do that, And does it look more efficient, does it
a little more razor sharp coming out of the buyer

(35:32):
than it has so far this year? LSU still dealing
with offensive line issues. I don't love that dynamic being
thrown into Tuscaloosa on a Saturday night. The pass rush
for Alabama seems like it's a facet of that defense
that's continued to improve. Look, I expect LSU to come
out hot by hot, I just mean very very much,

(35:53):
playing with passion, playing with purpose. I think they'll be
zoned in. I think they'll try and make a statement
about the changes that have happened down there. If you're
picking up what I'm putting down there, can they sustain it?
Because that's like a sugar high that doesn't last all game,
that doesn't really matter in the third quarter, fourth quarter,
Alabama's in that spot again where they're a two possession favorite.

(36:13):
Now it's not on the road, it's at home, so
it's a big difference here. Let's take a look at
what the model thinks. FanDuel's got Alabama minus nine and
a half right now. Alabama is the Model's favorite play
of the entire week. I thus far am not making
it a best bet we'll see what the number does
throughout the week. I will lean Alabama to win. I

(36:34):
will take them to cover. I think that I think
that two possession favorite dynamics a little different at home
for them than it is on the road. This is
no easy game by any stretch for them. I think
it takes a four quarter effort. Could very much look
like the Tennessee game where you end up winning by
double digits, but it's like one or two plays and

(36:55):
you're sitting there saying, if they went differently, Oh, but
they didn't. So I'll take Alabama to win, and of her.
This is game gonna be well worth watching Saturday. Right now,
Bama's the favorite twin the SEC right now, just ahead
of A and M and in Georgia and Ole, miss
little ways behind. They're watching us in Charlottesville, Virginia, in Geneva, Alabama,
in Fort Collins, Colorado. I appreciate all of you. I

(37:18):
just hope wherever you're watching or listening, that you're subscribed.
And you know what else, I hope, I hope your
friends are and I hope Mom and Dad is mema
bless her. The font may be a little bigger on
her phone, but that doesn't change how the subscribe mechanism works.
Just press it for, just press it for. She won't know.
It's fine. We will be in Lubbock, Texas Saturday. The

(37:42):
fauldont Live Tour is headed to Texas Tech. So is
Brigham Young off a by no less, We got a
top ten matchup right there, eleven am local kickoff. We
are fueled by Quick Trip, as is the Fauldon't Lie Tour. Unofficially,
this game will be fueled by Quick Trip. Is it
elleital for me to say officially? It'll officially be fueled

(38:03):
by Quick Trip. Who's gonna stop us? So this may
be the biggest game of the weekend, you know, well,
you know what it is, the biggest game of the weekend.
But you know what else it is. I don't mean
to pop the paper this early, Jesse, but we've got
ourselves a good old fashioned scheduling dynamic advantage, maybe one

(38:23):
of the biggest scheduled dynamic edges of the season in
this game. Be careful on this. Texas Tech playing their
sixth consecutive game, bring him Young coming off a bye
so late in the year, this matters, So let's just
keep an eye on that. Could be an iconic scene.
There are a lot of memories being drug up about

(38:46):
the last time college game Day was in Lubbock, the Fall,
the Lye Tour's never been there, but the Michael Crabtree
touched down against Texas circa eight. I know I've got
a college audience that's too young to remember the game.
Do yourselves a favor. I don't think you can really
appreciate what the night was, how impactful it was in

(39:06):
college football. But just go watch it, Go find it,
go plug it into YouTube, go watch that, and then try,
as you might, try to understand how insane that was.
That was a different era, Okay, that was back when
Texas Tech was supposed to be honored that the University

(39:26):
of Texas was even in their building, and you appreciate
the fact that the Longhorns are allowing you to compete
on the same field with them. It was a different era.
But what a night it was. So in this one,
it's gonna be a day game. Brigham Young has to
run it. They run it on everyone, right, They've successfully

(39:47):
run the ball all year. Now. There are many dynamics,
There are many variables in this game. This one's not
a variable. This is a non negotiable if Brigham Young,
I'm gonna put the number at four. If they don't
have four yards per carry on Saturday, they lose the game.
It's not a guarantee they'll win it. If they have
four point three. I think it's close to a guarantee
they lose it if they can't average four yards per carry.

(40:10):
So far this year, they've averaged five point four. Okay,
So the thing about a ground game against inferior competition,
and the best run defense they face so far this
year is fifty fifth. The thing about a ground game
that's clicking against inferior competition is you don't know until
you know how they'll do when they face legit competition.

(40:33):
They face the number one run defense in the country Saturday.
So if this is an elite rushing attack, they will
scale their performance because an elite rushing attack is gonna
get yards no matter who they play. I don't need
them to have over five yards per carry Saturday. That's
a little unrealistic unless they pop like an eighty yard run.

(40:54):
But if they can get in that four range, then
they can start doing some things. Because no one's done
that against Texas tack so then they can start doing
some things. Secondly, as it relates to Texas Tech, you
got to make Brigham Young uncomfortable because they are masters
at making you uncomfortable. They're so good at creating the
game they want to play and then beating you play

(41:14):
in it because they're playing their game and you're trying
to play their game. They're number three in the country
and turnover margin. So they've taken the ball away consistently.
They have not trailed a ton, and even when they've trailed,
it hasn't been my multiple multiple possessions. They've never had
to abandon the run this year. They've never had to
lean on throwing the ball to get back in a game.

(41:35):
Brigham Young has the eighty eighth passing offense in the country,
so you would think to yourself, oh man, all you
got to do is get ahead of them. Okay, do it.
Everyone else has tried to. Everyone else has tried to
get that two possession lead and then make bear Bachmeyern
Company come back on them through the air. They're very
good at making you play their game, So you got
to make them uncomfortable. Now, your road environment should do that.

(42:00):
But that's that alone is not gonna do the trick here.
What will do the trick is Texas Tech is in
the ninety ninth percentile in HAVOC rate. They affect quarterback
as well as anyone in the country. You watch Texas
Tech and then compare that to like what Georgia does
or even what Alabama does. I'm mentioning those two because

(42:23):
you're used to those two having premier defensive front talent
year in and year out. Texas Tech is in a
different class than them this year, this particular year. So
it's a major culture test because if I'm Kalani Seitaki, like,
you can visualize what the vibe is around there right now.

(42:44):
You're selling your guys on the fact that everyone who's
in this building is here for a reason because you
chose to be a BYU cougar, and that means something.
We've got critical traits and characteristics of what it takes
to be that this culture is ironclad. There's no tearing
us apart, and we're dogs a bunch of weeks and

(43:05):
it doesn't matter because we win anyway, and they'll write
us off and they'll ignore us. Most of America has
not watched a full quarter of US play this year.
That's okay, we're all we need. That team is a
bunch of mercenaries. That team is bought and paid for
and we're not. And so they look good until they

(43:26):
got to play someone like us. We're the bowl and ball.
They're the pins. In other words, that's what it sounds like.
I guarantee you in Provo, Utah, I will tell you
what it sounds like in Lubbock, Texas. It sounds loud.
One of the things that I have spoken to Joey
Maguire a couple of times about this this year. In

(43:46):
spring he was talking like this. In fall camp, he
was talking like this. During the season, he has talked
about this. He has said repeatedly, I don't really care
what the outside perception is. I know the perception will
be one thing. And a lot of guys came here
because they made a lot of money and it's just
a bunch of free agents. Blah blah blah. He said.

(44:07):
Is one of the strongest cultures I've ever been around.
It's one of the tightest knit groups I've ever been around.
Here's the good news. You get to test it Saturday.
That's why I say it's a culture test. That's really
what we're talking about there. So you swear you've got
a vibe in your building, you've got a dynamic in
your building. They know they got it in theirs. They
got to come into your house to prove it. But

(44:29):
what better stage the world gets to watch it? What
better stage. So let's take a look at what the
model thinks on this thing. Texas Tech is favored by
ten and a half. Model agrees. By the way, model,
I'll give you, I'll give you a time out for
a second. There, Bradley the once every other week blip
hit the monitor. There, I'll give you a clean cut here, Bradley.

(44:52):
The model has Texas Tech minus ten FanDuel Texas Tech
minus ten and a half. There is a world where
a Briga Young wins this game outright by doing the
exact same thing that they've done for a long time.
The reason I'm gonna go the direction I'm gonna go
is because I think that there are a couple of
damn breaker moments that could happen here where if they happen,

(45:14):
they're kind of happening in Brigham Young for the first
time this year. And if they're putting an unfamiliar spot.
I think there is some chance to get margin here
for Texas Tech because what I haven't even mentioned is
they're number one in the country in explosive plays, their
top twenty five run in pass. I think it's just
a different caliber team than Brigham Young's face so far
this year. I've said that before. I said it about Utah.

(45:36):
They beat Utah, they won the turnover battle there, and
then they went on the road and won it against
Iowa State, And if they win it here, they may
end up beating Texas Tech. I can't predict turnovers. What
I do think is you'll see Texas Tech play one
of their best games in the year. I think that'll
be good enough to win and cover. So give me
Red Raiders to win, Give me Red Raiders to cover.

(45:59):
High stakes man, high stakes. Flex Power just generating the
entire show. Dare I say if we had a flex
Power generator, our power would not have temporarily blipped a
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(46:19):
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You don't want to spend a night in the dark.
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(46:40):
To be very clear about how we do partnerships around here,
there's a reason why you don't see these generic national
brands just kind of plastered all over the show and
me doing generic reads. It's because we don't like to
do business that way, and we leave money on the
table every week because we don't do business that way.
What I like to do is I like to meet

(47:03):
people like flex Power. These are folks who have watched
the show for a long time. Just so happens to
be a few people that have a company, and then
that company comes to us and say we love the show,
and I'm like, I love you guys, and they're like,
you want to do business together? Yeah, because it makes sense.
That's how we choose our partners. So anyone who makes
it on the show, they're one of us. So if

(47:26):
you go to myflexpower dot Com, slash Josh Pate, you're
purchasing generators from one of us instead of going to
home depot. It's no knocking its home depot. We just
love Flexpower a little more. We have a personal relationship
with flex Power. Let's continue. I have reached the portion

(47:47):
of the show we call the Jesse Memorial portion of
the show. He's still alive. Penn State's coaching search, where
are we well? James Franklin was fired two twenty three
days ago. As of tonight, twenty three days ago. We
came on this show and I was in mild disbelief
at the fact that James Franklin had been fired. And

(48:08):
I still don't agree with the move, by the way,
so I haven't changed my thoughts on that. But that
doesn't matter. I doubt they're rehiring him. So then remember
the immediate you know, everybody's got to take in. The
immediate take was, oh, this is Matt Rule's job. No,
it's not, because Matt Ruhle has since resigned with Nebraskan. Frankly,
he's lost a couple of games, and everyone's cooled on

(48:29):
Matt Rule, which sort of illustrates how insane the logic is.
Behind coaching searches or lack thereof behind coaching searches sometimes,
but anyway, here's the deal. Mike Elko's name continues to
be mentioned in Penn State circles, and it should be
because Mike's one of the best coaches in the country.
So if Peate State had an opening like Penn State does,

(48:51):
I would hit up Mike Elcho and I would pitch
the benefits of my program, and I would sell the positives,
and I would offer a ton of money. I would
do that, and I think Penn State may very well
do that with Mike Elko. He's an ideal fit there, Josh. Absolutely,
of course he's an ideal fit there. Got some ties there, Josh,

(49:13):
I know that. I certainly know that. You know where
else he's a good fit, College Station, Texas or most
any place they're serious about football. And you know what
I think they're going to do down there. I think
they're going to make him every bit as happy as
Penn State ever could. So my official stance on Mike
Elko is I think Mike Elko is going to be
the head coach of Texas A and M next year

(49:33):
and will be mildly to moderately shocked. If he's not now,
I was mildly to moderately shocked they fired James Franklin.
So if there's one job search, there's one coaching search
that's going to mildly to moderately shock me, it makes
sense that it would be this one. I think A
and M knows what they have to do, and I
think they'll do it. And even if they don't, I

(49:54):
don't think that this has any traction until at the
very least the end of the season, because if you
think this dude's about to screw up a potential national
title run over coaching searches, then you're crazy. So I
doubt this ends with Mike Oco. I doubt that where
I think it may be more likely to go. If
you look at Pete and Nikos's hot board, here is

(50:18):
the second name, Clark Lee. Clark Lee makes a lot
of sense to me at Penn State, and Clark's done
big things at Vanderbilt the last couple of years. I
have some and you know I'm not running the search
at Penn State pat Craft. Pat Craft and I got
into a big argument earlier in the year. Did I
tell this story Jesse on air? About the playoff thing.

(50:39):
I was up at Penn State. I was watching practice,
like the first week of fall camp, and Pat Craft
was out there. That's the athletic director at Penn State.
It's the first time I've met Pat. Delightful conversation. But
then we started talking about expanding the playoff and that
was the week where that report came out about you know,
could there be a twenty team, a twenty four team,

(51:00):
twenty eight whatever, And so he and I we're just
like really loudly debating how big the playoffs should be.
I think some people thought we were about like I
think some people heard our voices and thought we were serious. No, no,
just passionate. You see this guy right here, Manny Diaz. Ironically,
I had a very very similar exchange with him when
he was at Penn State a few years ago when

(51:21):
we went up there. So I always have my best
playoff debates in state college Pennsylvania. Anyway, I say that
to say Pat Kraft is running this search, not me,
But if I was running this search, there are some
unique characteristics about the Penn State job that I want
my guy to have. He needs to be elite at evaluation.
He needs to be a plus developer of talent along

(51:44):
with the staff that he brings them. He needs to
have a magnetic culture. Because with the magnetic culture, I
get what I call the market magician vibe, and that
is a place created by a guy that is so
attractive to players that they're willing to take a little
bit less to play there. Now, Penn State's not poor,

(52:07):
but at Penn State, I'm not going to count on
them to match dollar for dollar with Miami or Ohio
State or Texas or whatever. Basically, the pool that you're
going to be drawing from, that you're going to try
and get elite talent from, and the teams you're going
to be competing against. Give me a guy that builds
a culture that makes a player say, you know what,

(52:30):
it may take one point two million for me to
go there and play for them, but for you, seven
hundred it'll do. And then you apply that principle across
the board. Look how much it saves you. Look how
many extra players you can go get. This happens by
the way this exists. Now, sometimes it's just going to
be a straight bidding war, and candidly, Penn State's probably

(52:51):
not winning the bidding wars anyway, So Clark Lee is
that guy. He's not the only one out there that
fits this. Clark is the guy that creates the culture
that gets you a little bit of a market discount
on players, and he also possesses the ability to evaluate
talent that may not even be attracting the huge multi

(53:16):
I say, multimillion dollar offers, the seven figure offers out there,
and he goes and wins with him. Anyway, Clark Lee
exhibits those characteristics. He's got that. I think Eli Drinkwoitz
has that as well. For some reason, Clark strikes me
as a better fit at Penn State than Eli Drinkwitz.
But I'd have no problem with Eli Drinkwoitz. You'll notice
when this job first came open, I threw out Matt

(53:36):
Campbell's name immediately. I believe in Matt Campbell every bit
as much today as I did three weeks ago. You'll
notice they've lost a couple of games at Iowa State,
and so I had someone dm me today is the
reason I mentioned this, And they said, now that Matt
Campbell's name isn't as hot anymore, who do you turn
to what? And they said, no, Well, I mean you

(53:57):
know when you first mentioned them, they were still in
the chase for the Big Twelve. But now they're out
of it, and so he's not as hot as a candidate.
I don't think that way. Just a full stop there.
Matt Campbell today is the same football coach Matt Campbell
was twenty three days ago. To me, and let me
just take that name compared to Clark Lee and do

(54:18):
nothing more than hit the rewind button one year or
two years, I go back one or two years. Within
that span, Clark Lee's been on the hot seat. Do
you understand at SEC media days last year, Clark Lee's
name was on the hot seat. It was stupid then,
but he was on the hot seat. Matt Campbell then
went and made a run to the Big Twelve championship

(54:38):
game last year. So imagine the Penn State job just
comes open a year earlier. What are we saying about it?
We're saying, oh, man, Matt Campbell, home run Grand Slam?
Just are we willing to wait? What if Matt makes
the playoff? And then a year later it's like, well
they've lost a few games, Yeah they have. It's Iowa State, dude,
of absolutely, they lost a few games they may even

(55:01):
lose a few more. They were in Dallas last year,
the dudes taking Iowa State the conference title game. So anyway,
I don't know how much traction his name has up
there or not. He is another guy that fits all
those parameters elite evaluation plus developer, magnetic culture. Guys love
to play for him, guys love to work for him.

(55:22):
Probably can attract talent for less dollar for dollar than
some of the major programs would have to pay. So
that's what I'm looking for at Penn State. So those
guys would all fit to me. Let's move on. I
gotta see man, Jesse. You know what I left my
chest stick. This is terrible, all right. Anyway, we got

(55:44):
a big game in Iowa City this weekend. Big game
in Iowa City. Oregon plays Iowa. This is the Saturday
CBS game in a week three thirty Eastern, two thirty
local time. There's no way to sugarcoat this. It's gonna
be gross. At last check, we are predicting rain again,
We're predicting wind again, and tempts in the mid forties.

(56:07):
Let me give Dan Landing a little friendly piece of advice. Publicly,
you got to stop wearing cotton in the poor and
rain that can't feel good. You risk hypothermia and the
game's already gonna be hideous. You don't have to feel
terrible along with it. So I trust Kenny and the
guys up there in the equipment department to make sure

(56:27):
we're better equipped this week to deal with the conditions.
I know most of you did not watch Oregon versus Wisconsin,
but I did. They also played that day in a downpour,
sideways rain, gross game. This should be every bit that
except a little colder. Iwa was offens is turned to corner.
I don't know if you've heard Iowa was offense turn

(56:50):
the corner? Yeah, how's that? Well, they're four to one
in Big Ten play and they've scored thirty eight thirty
seven to twenty five and forty one in those wins.
That means their offense is turned to corner. Right, No, No,
it hasn't. They haven't thrown for two hundred yards in
a game this year. They do not have a wide
receiver with over seventy five yards in a game. I

(57:10):
gotta pop the paper for this one. This is so
classic Iowa. They have as a team one thousand and
sixty one receiving yards. San Jose State has a kid
with more receiving yards than that, Danny Scudero, good player,
more receiving yards than Iowa. So yeah, it's not like

(57:32):
the offense has necessarily turned a corner. I was just
doing what they do. They're playing the ball they play
and it's working for them, and they're number twenty in
the playoff rankings right now. So this is a big
prove it spot for Oregon. I know what I'm getting
from Iowa. Iowa sits there and waits for you to
hand the game to them, and then they're really good
at taking it. They are not gonna go get it,
They're gonna wait for you to hand it to them,

(57:54):
and then they will take it. So do you play
their game or do you play your game? So weather
would indicate it's going to be really hard to play
basketball on grass here. However, Oregon can run the ball
fairly well, okay, So Oregon doesn't have to sit there
and rely on the things that the video gamers out
there think Oregon has to rely on. They Iowa already

(58:17):
played Indiana just like Oregon did. Iowa dealt with Indiana
better than Oregon, so we have a common opponent there,
so it can be a very tough out for Oregon.
Their last game was twenty one to seven in a
downpour against Wisconsin. Iowa has beaten Wisconsin thirty seven to
nothing already this year, so there are multiple common opponents here.
Penn State as well. Close game against Penn State so

(58:41):
was Oregon. They went to overtime. So if you're trying
to understand why this game spread is only six and
a half, buddy, if we looked at the common opponents,
you could make the counter argument, why is Iowa not
a slight favorite at home this game? This spread implies
Iowa as about a nine and a half or a
ten point favorite neutral field, So it's a little hefty number.

(59:04):
Fifty two, pass number nine, rush number one. Explosive runs
that is Oregon. That's their offensive profile this year. So far,
Iowa has allowed one explosive run all year. So whose
game gets played the number one team in the country
in explosive runs or the team at home who's given

(59:25):
up one of those all year? Oregon has to kind
of make Iowa's game their game is basically what I'm saying.
Forget about the early knockout that is very unlikely to
happen here. Look, if you can go grab a seventeen
point lead in a game where the over unders forty
and a half, you may have scored enough to win
the game. So if you can go do that, be
my guest and do it. It's far more likely that

(59:48):
it gets drug out into the deep end and the
scores like thirteen to nine in the fourth quarter or
something like that, and you have just jabbed and jabbed
and jabbed the whole game, and then there's like this
three minute chunk of the game where you got a
couple of chances to deliver a knockout blow and it
comes down to whether you landed or not. Oregon under

(01:00:08):
Dan Landing has been very good at jab jab jab
boom knockout blow. They did it against Ohio State last year.
That's this kind of game. That's the kind of game
I expect this to be. Let's take a look at
what the model thinks. Oregon is a six and a
half point favorite FanDuel. We've got it, Oregon minus six.
This was the one I wrestled with the most all day.

(01:00:31):
From the From the examples of these teams I've seen
so far this year, not only would I pick Iowa
to cover, I just pick them to win the game.
So there's that part of me, the part of me
that's going to go on the record here is the
part of me that thinks Oregon learned a lot from
going wired to wire undefeated last year but then fizzling

(01:00:51):
in the playoff, and I think a lot of their
offseason focus there was what it was a year ago
in Columbus, Ohio that was, let's make sure we peak
at the right time. In Ohio state mastered it. I
think Oregon has invested a ton of energy and focus
into making sure they peak in November. They're coming out
of a bye week. If I'm right, then that should

(01:01:14):
begin here. So I'm gonna take Oregon very hesitantly to
win and cover because I'm banking on a different gear.
They're able to hit that they haven't hit yet. This
is going to be a very difficult game. I will
take Oregon to win and cover. I will not bet
a penny on it. I'm saving my pennies. And do

(01:01:34):
you want to know why I'm saving my pennies Because
I promised you something Sunday night, because we got it
demanded to us by the thousands and thousands, and I
kid you not thousands, Well what Josh like? Thousands of
people don't even beg for oxygen these days, true, but
they begged for Christmas gear. So tonight in the Pate

(01:01:55):
State Store, I am happy to announce that tis the
season collection has dropped. And I'm telling you, of all
the designs we've ever dropped in there, these Christmas sweaters
will sell out. They unequivocally will sell out. I'm buying
Jesse and Bradley one. They don't even know about it yet.

(01:02:15):
Look at the little Chuggy woven in there. Tis the
season to be Chuggy is so brilliant, It's so simple,
it's so brilliant. We've got one in there that we
can't even picture here. Merry Christmas. You felt the casual
I believe we have in there, Just art, pure art
in the Peate State Store right now, so it's November fourth,

(01:02:37):
I would strongly encourage you to get ahead start on
your Christmas shopping because I can't guarantee that those bad
boys are going to be there all throughout December. Peatestatematerial
dot com. I am so proud. I was never into
Christmas sweaters to my knowledge, I've never won one in
my life, so this year will be a first for me.
Maybe you feel the same way. It's a great time

(01:02:58):
in the Peate State Store. Let's continue the Auburn coaching
search that's going on as well. We might as well
update that one. People talking a lot about Auburn. Have
you noticed people are taking shots Bradley don't stand for this.
Bradley's from Montgomery, he lives close by. People are taking
shots at Auburn. And you know what, I've noticed. I've

(01:03:19):
noticed that the further away people are about Auburn, the
more likely they are to take shots at Auburn. And
these people have not the slightest clue what Auburn is.
They think they do. There are these stereotypes that exist
about Auburn to some extent because they've been true in
the past. But they say stuff like, oh man, Auburn,
no one wants that job. The boosters meddle too much there,

(01:03:41):
and they say this stuff and it goes unchecked, and
so I'd like to check it. I'd love to get
some people if they want to call in live. We
don't have that capability, but if I could have them,
if I could have some of the national media types
or you know, people just with columns space to fill,
so they got to write something and they take shots
at Auburn. All the boosters are meddling down there too much.

(01:04:02):
Which ones name them? What are they doing specifically right now? Like,
if I'm a candidate for the Auburn job, you're telling
me I don't want this job cause the boosters are
meddling Which ones? What are they doing? Specifics? Please give
me specifics? So what's that you don't have any? And
I know a lot of you sent me the clip

(01:04:22):
from Next Round the other day where Klatt goes on
there and he was talking about the quality of the
Auburn job. I got so many people to send me
this clip, so he said, basically, I'm paraphrasing because I
hate when people do this to me, so I'm paraphrasing.
But essentially his message was the expectations at Auburn amongst

(01:04:44):
Auburn fans are probably a little too high as it
relates to the higher they're going to be able to make.
And you can't be a great job if you aren't
even the best job in your own state. Those were
his sentiments and the logic there I really disagree with
because I'm watching what Mike Elko's doing at Texas A

(01:05:05):
and M right now, and I'm thinking to myself, did
Texas A and M ever waste a second wondering whether
their job was better than Texas or did they just
block out all the noise as they screw every one
of you. Here's what we are, here's how good we
think we can be, and here's who we're gonna go get.
That's exactly what Auburn should do right now. I hope
that's exactly what they are doing right now. The barriers

(01:05:27):
of yesterday are gone. There was a while there where
if the Auburn job was open, the first words out
of anyone's mouth were, boy, you're gonna have to go
in there competing against Saban. No, you don't. This is
the first hire they've made post Saban. You don't have
to go in there anymore compete against him. And even
if he was still there, the means to acquire talent

(01:05:47):
today are different. They don't have a choke hold Alabama
and have a death grip on recruiting over you like
they used to. Kirby Smart's up the road at Georgia
Kirby smart real relatively speaking, has his most vulnerable roster
that he's had probably since his first year of being
at Georgia. So these barriers that used to exist, and

(01:06:09):
then this stigma, this cloud that floated over the Auburn job.
Forget that they've got as good of an alignment situation
right there, frankly as they've had in a long time,
maybe in my lifetime. So Auburn's a fine job. Auburn's
like one of the best fifteen jobs in the country.
And if I'm a quality candidate, by the way, I'm
not shying away from the other stuff. If you show

(01:06:31):
me you've got alignment, I don't care what it was
like there in nineteen ninety three or two thousand and three,
twenty twenty three. If I've got what I need now,
if you can sell me on the fact that I
got what I need there to win, and they do,
then I'll take the job. That's it. And if that's
not the way it's going, it's cause the powers that
be at Auburn have done a pispour job of presenting
their job properly. So if they do a good job

(01:06:53):
of presenting the job properly, they'll be able to get
a good candidate here. If John Cohen is serious about
what he's saying, that's the ad there. If he's serious
about what I listened to him say in that press
conference the other day, and what I mean by that
is it sounded like he wanted an offensive minded head coach.
If he's serious about that, then he's not going to
hire John Sumral, who's the head coach at Tulane right now.

(01:07:15):
Some rawl was sort of number one on my list.
He's been number one on many people's lists apparently, and
who knows, maybe he is the number one guy on
the list. But he's not an offensive guy. So John
Cohen may have just been speaking exteporaneously and I may
be reading too much into this, And if I am,
I'm happy to have him text in and let me

(01:07:36):
know that. But if he's not watching the show live
right now, I'm going to continue. If he's really looking
for an offensive minded head coach, then you ought to
go get Eli Drinkwitz, or you ought to go get
Kenny Dillingham. That's who you ought to go get for
your head coaching position. Either one of them would be
fine with me. Either one of them I think would
win there with Eli. Obviously he's got a better feel

(01:07:56):
on the SEC because he's a sitting SEC head coach.
You got to ask yourself, would he make the jump
from Missouri to Auburn. I tend to believe he would.
I don't know that. We haven't spoken about it, but
I tend to believe he would, especially, like I said,
if the job is presented properly. There's that alignment word again,
if you can convince him and his people that you've

(01:08:16):
got good alignment there. What stands out to me about
Drink is how many times desperate programs have gone to
Missouri to pluck quality staffers, Like, for example, when LSU
needed to bail themselves out defensively, where did they go?
They went to Missouri to get well. Kevin Peeples was there.
He came, but Blake Baker came as well. My point is,

(01:08:40):
you are going to be as good as the staff
you hire underneath. You know, drink gave up play calling
a couple of years ago as well. Some other folks
are clinging to play calling. Billy Napier cost himself a
job because he wouldn't let it go. Eli drink Witz
has let it go and they're fine, what kind of
staff are you hiring there? Drink's been as good as
anyone at hiring a very underrated staff with less resources

(01:09:02):
to offer. They've been very good at punching up from
a disadvantage talent standpoint relative to the big boys. Got
no doubt he'd win at Auburn. Kenny probably win at
Auburn too. Kenny's been there before for one year. The
thing about Kenny Dillingham and I mentioned him because I
know he's gonna get a lot of traction, because I
do think he's a really serious candidate for the job.

(01:09:24):
So I know he's gonna get a lot of traction.
The thing about Kenny is he runs a different kind
of program that is not a bad thing to me.
It's a good thing, but it's a different thing. So
if you are sixty eight years old and you're living
in Smith's Station down there, or you're living in with
Tumpka and your lifelong Auburn Tiger, and you remember the
way Pat died did it, and you remember you remember

(01:09:45):
the Bowden days, and you remember when when Tommy Tuberville
even came in there, But you just think about Auburn
as being a certain kind of gravelly hard knows US
against the world. Kenny can give you US against the world.
But Kenny's also going to have basketball hoops in his
team meeting room. So Kenny just does it a little
different way. Now. I've sat in one of Kenny's team

(01:10:06):
meetings before him, and he goes from a circus to
military real quick. Part of the stigma around him is, oh,
it's just happy, go lucky. No, it's really it's really
loose until it needs to be tight, and then they're
all business. I'm not going to immunity. I know what
you guys want me to do, I'm not doing it.
So my point is, optically that plays fine at Arizona State.

(01:10:30):
I think it could be okay at Auburn. I could
see the second he los as a game some people
being rubbed the wrong way by that. The other thing
about Kenny is he has a valve that sometimes gets broken.
It's the emotion valve, and it just pours out because
no one cares more than him, and he sucks at
hiding it. To me, that is not a flaw. That's

(01:10:52):
a plus. That's a green check mark, not a red
ex There there is a certain level of college football
that that flies at. And then there are these programs
that sometimes take themselves too seriously and they're worried about
optics and when they should just be worried about winning games.
And so anyway, those are some things to just think about.
With Kenny, I would go very hard after either one

(01:11:14):
of them. I would heavily pursue John Sumrall. I think
we're still in this era with these coaching searches where
a lot of places want fully proven commodities multiple years
as a winning power fore head coach. And I just
want to remind you those guys aren't moving. They're not moving, okay,
And it shouldn't even be something that scares you. Go

(01:11:37):
get the guy that's gonna make his name and make
his legacy as an Auburn Tiger. Go get the next guy.
Go get the next guy that's going to be a star.
And he's not a star because he became one somewhere
else and you plucked him. He became a star at Auburn.
Landing has become a star head coach at Oregon, Kirby
Smart became a star head coach at Georgia. Go find

(01:11:59):
that guy if he's a coordinator so be it. If
he's a head coach somewhere like John somerre else, so
be it. But he ought to be an Auburn for
the next fifteen years. That's who you ought to be
going in hiring. And if you know, if there's a
little professional development, if there's a little learning on the
job on the front end, the rewards you reap on
the back end because of that will be worth it.

(01:12:19):
That's how you have to think to me about that.
Let's continue folks taking the shots at the Auburn job,
though it seems like it seems like the dumber shots
are being taken by people the furthest away from the job.
Like I grew up near Auburn, I know Auburn intimately.
Auburn's been a disaster at times throughout its recent history.
There has been a lot of meddling at times. Brian Harson,

(01:12:43):
for example, walked in the door and had hands tied
behind his back because there were powerful people down there
that never wanted him to have the job to begin with.
That is lack of alignment. Okay, that's where the stereotypes
come from. They are earned, they are well earned. I
don't view that to be the case there right now,
So right now, it's not a problem. And if you're

(01:13:05):
properly aligned and you get the right guy and you've
got your act together, then the Auburne job can be
one of the ten or fifteen best jobs in the country.
And if you marry one of the ten or fifteen
best situations in the country with one of the ten
best candidates in the country, you are a national championship contender.
It's as simple as that. We move on. I've got

(01:13:26):
the week eleven edition of the JP Pole in my hand.
These are not rankings. So the playoff rankings just came
out tonight. I cannot in strong enough terms remind you
this right here, what I have in front of me.
These are not meant to mirror what I think the
playoff rankings should look like. These are not rankings. These
are power ratings. So you can take all the playoff

(01:13:47):
teams and playoff rankings, but if you want to know
how those teams would stack up against each other on
a neutral field, pure power ratings standpoint, that's what this is.
I've got the model right next to me here, and
it spits out our own numbers. So these are not
exactly what FanDuel would have. There'll be a lot of similarities,
but there's some notable differences. There's some teams were higher

(01:14:07):
on than FanDuel's traders would be, some teams were lower on.
So one thing I want to tell you, in fact,
a couple of things that I want to tell you
as I get into this. We don't have any G
five teams in the top twenty five, but we almost do.
James Madison. We've got four points better than the next
closest G five team. The model is sky high on

(01:14:28):
James Madison. It almost has James Madison top twenty five.
And that is saying something in a power rating for
a G five team. So that's the first thing. Second thing,
nineteen of the top twenty five or from the big
ten in the SEC. That's not bias, that's just power rating.
That's how that works. Georgia Tech, you'll notice that we

(01:14:49):
never had them in the top twenty now in my
rankings I have in power ratings, the model has not
really been that high on Georgia Tech. They are thirty
eighth this week one lost Georgia Tech thirty eighth. Just
to kind of give you some calibration here, Ohio State
is the number one team U Mass currently playing is

(01:15:11):
number sixty one, well, actually number one thirty six. Ohio State,
the model would have is a sixty one point favorite
against U Mass right now, U Mass, I kid you
not try to flee flicker on their opening play tonight
and fumbled it and turned it over. It's a tough
time right now for you Mass. Nowhere to go it
up though. Michigan kind of quietly dropping a little bit.

(01:15:33):
Like Michigan, they won against Purdue, came nowhere close to covering,
so they're underachieving relative to what expectation is. Michigan's dropped
four and a half points since week four, their power
rating numbers dropped four and a half points. So those
are just some things to keep in mind, all right.
Number twenty LSU nineteen Vanderbilt eighteen Iowa. So models got

(01:15:54):
Iowa higher than the playoff committee does. Missouri is number seventeen.
Missouri's got am this week they are a seven and
a half point dog at home against anm LSU is
number or wait, I wrote this down wrong. Who's number sixteen?
Louisville's number sixteen? That's bad handwriting. My lou looked like LSU.

(01:16:16):
That's so terrible. So top fifteen here, I'm gonna stop
at fifteen for a second. So USC is number fifteen. Now,
the model dropped USC after last week. This is where
we differ from rankings. USC went on the road and won,
Yes they did. USC also benefited from Dylan Ryola going

(01:16:37):
down in a game where at that point they were trailing,
and the Model thinks that USC only won that game
because Nebraska lost its quarterback and it's not rewarding USC.
It actually dropped them a point. So USC is at fifteen.
Not that you should have your feelings hurt about that.
I'm just trying to explain to you why they dropped
oh U Oklahoma fourteen, Miami is at thirteen, Texas Tech

(01:16:59):
is at twelve, Tennessee's at number eleven. So Tennessee, There's
been a lot talked about this week. There have been
some irresponsible quote edits and graphics put out that takes
something I said on our show the other night out
of context and makes it sound like I trashed Tennessee fans.
I didn't. So my take on it was, hey, I'm

(01:17:21):
not down on Josh Hipel in Tennessee right now, and
I had some fringe Tennessee fans text me and talk
about how down on Hypool they were, and I said,
you shouldn't be down on him. Stop talking about hot
seat with him. In the aggregate, they're actually better than
I thought they were going to be in the preseason,
where I thought they were going to be eight and four.
So I don't do my recalibration of expectation like some

(01:17:43):
people do. Like there's some people coming at me this week.
It doesn't matter if you thought they were gonna go
seven and five. Once they almost beat Georgia, it's on.
You should recalibrate your expectation. No, I don't do that
because that's stupid. So what I've done is I thought
they were going to go eight and four, and the
guy may end up going nine and three. The Model
has bumped them up two and a half points in

(01:18:04):
their power rating from the preseason, so they've actually been
a little bit better than the Model expected them to be.
So in the overall grand scheme of things, I'll look
at what Josh Shipel's done this year. It's not without criticism,
that's fine, But anyone thinking the guy's underachieved, I don't
think he has. The model doesn't think he has, but

(01:18:24):
that's okay, cause some dude named John on Twitter does
think he has. So whatever. Utah's number ten. Utah, according
to the model, would be a one point favorite against
Texas Tech if they played today on a neutral site. Now,
I'm firmly convinced FanDuel would have Texas Tech favored. So

(01:18:44):
the Texas Tech Utah comparison here, That is one area
where it's very obvious to me the model is higher
on Utah than the odds makers would be. The model
loves Utah. We are a Utah show now. Notre Dames
at number nine. Tech Texas is number eight. So Texas
right now against Oklahoma neutral field would be a four

(01:19:05):
point favorite. If the model made the line. Texas was
one spot ahead of OU in the playoff rankings. Texas
is one, two three, about six spots ahead of OU
in the model, which isn't comparable to rankings, but they
would be a four point favorite. That's something to note.
Texas goes to Georgia next week. Georgia's power rated seventh,

(01:19:28):
ole Miss is six, and the top five is Oregon, Alabama, Texas,
A and m Indiana and Ohio State quickly. We got
hit up by fan duel today that ooh. They said, hey,
we're putting the Big Ten Championship game up. I said,
excuse me, said yeah, people can bet on it. So

(01:19:49):
as of now you can go bet on Ohio State
versus Indiana. It's not locked in that that's going to
be the matchup, but it's pretty much locked in that
that's going to be the matchup, and if it's you
just get your money back. Ohio State opens is a
three and a half point favorite. I looked at the model.
The model would have Ohio State as a three and
a half point favorite. So we fully agree with FanDuel there.

(01:20:12):
And as far as the gap between one and three,
because we got a couple of SEC teams they're A
and M and BBAMA three and four and they're rated
about the same. Ohio State would be a five and
a half point favorite according to the model against A
and M. So there you go. That's what the JP
pole has right now. You can go to FanDuel and
you won't see the JP pole over there, but you

(01:20:33):
will see some of those games I just mentioned, and
you will even see some future matchups like Ohio State, Indiana,
and you can go sign up right now FanDuel dot
Com slash Josh Pate bet five dollars and if it hits,
you get one hundred and fifty in bonus bets. Just
as soon as you walk in the door, they say, hey,
pick a game whatever, bet five bucks on it. If

(01:20:54):
it hits, we're gonna give you one hundred and fiftyen
bonus bets. It's a good deal. It's a good deal.
It is time, by the way, for a lot of
the conference championship pictures to fully come into form. So like,
if you're looking to get big value, this is one
of the last weekends to be betting those teams at
like plus five point fifty plus six fifty if you

(01:21:15):
really think they could win the conference. So get those
get those bets in, and if you don't bet at all,
that's cool too. If you're just curious to look around
at what the odds are slash would be, you can
go over There.

Speaker 2 (01:21:30):
Must be twenty one plus and present in select states
for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or eighteen
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Only five dollars first deposit required. Bonus issued as non
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(01:21:51):
com slash RG call one eight eight eight seven eight
nine seventy seven seventy seven, or visit CCPG dot org
slash chat in Connecticut, or visit and Gambling Help dot
org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit Gambling Helplinema dot
org or call eight hundred three two seven fifty fifty
for twenty four to seven support in Massachusetts or call
one eight seven seven eight Hope, NY, or text Hope

(01:22:12):
and Why in New York.

Speaker 1 (01:22:14):
Man. I just want to tell you guys, I've got
a call coming in right now, and I would I
would never take it on air, Jesse. We all know
I'm ethical. I would never take it on air. But
I really think if I took this call on air,
it would be the best segment we've ever done on
this show. I hope I've been clear as to who

(01:22:35):
it was. Rominuddle express time, and then we got to
get out of here. I put Florida State plus two
and a half as our first best bet of the
week the other night, but not our only best bet
of the week because I'm adding two more here. We're
adding a you. No, we can't. We were gonna add
a game, but then the line moved on us today.

(01:22:57):
Hate that, so we're adding Maryland instead. Oh. I think
also I should break some news. I should take this
opportunity to inform you Mike Locksley is still the head
coach at Maryland. People. There was a false report out
there that somehow is still up that Mike Locksley got
fired at Maryland. I'm halfway convinced people are betting this

(01:23:19):
game thinking locks got fired and they're betting Rutgers against
an interim head coach at Maryland. No, Mike Locksley is
still the head coach at Maryland. I don't know what
the future holds for him, but this week we're betting him. Now, Jesse,
let's double check the line. Do we got minus one
and a half or plus one and a half because
we are gonna bet Maryland. I just wanted to make
sure we had the right number because I had it

(01:23:41):
minus earlier. Today. If it crossed zero, it crossed zero,
as Jesse looks. Let me remind you, the Rama Noudle
Express T shirt continues to be our best selling shirt
in the Pate State Store. I kid you not. I
ran into a friend of the program in the locker
room at the gym today. He was the Ramnuel Express shirt.

(01:24:02):
They're everywhere. We're taking Maryland plus one and a half.
Good work, Jesse. Okay, Maryland plus one and a half
is our second added best bet of the week. It's
later than morning. We got to get out of here.
We got to get home. Bradley does have a bedtime
after all. For director Bradley. For producer Jesse, I'm Josh Pate.
Thursday night, we start to show an hour earlier than usual,
so seven Eastern, sixth Central, and we'll have updates on

(01:24:25):
whatever happens between now and I appreciate you. Appreciate you guys.
Take care, have a great rest of your evening.

Speaker 2 (01:24:30):
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