CFP Rankings Reaction + Week 12 Prediction Show & Coaching Search Latest

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:12):
So I'm sitting there a little while ago, I'm watching
the playoff rankings come out. I'm sure everyone has a
lot of takeaways from that. I do too. We're gonna
leave the show with it. One thing I don't know
if you called, did you hear Heather Dnich talk about
Georgia Tech? Because I heard something kind of bothered me
a little bit. She talked about how the committee is
well aware that a bad call gave Georgia Tech a win.

(00:35):
Now that in and of itself is true, Okay, that
did happen. Officials flat out handed what should have been
a Wake Forest win to Georgia Tech. Here's what I'm asking,
do we really want to go down a road where
the Playoff Committee is assignating wins that were losses because
they perceive bad officiating to be the culprit. Because I

(00:57):
think Auburn could be a solid ten and two team
if we're going to go down in the road. I
think Hugh Freeze could be rehired at Auburn if we're
going down that road. According to what the committee says,
the reality is so yeah, I didn't like that all
that much. We're jampacked, we're high a top a somewhat
warmer downtown Nashville, Tennessee. On this Tuesday, November eleventh, the
ar of our Lower twenty twenty five. The rankings just

(01:18):
got released. I've got what Jesse, thirty seven thoughts, maybe
forty thoughts. I got a lot of thoughts on it.
We've got full week twelve predictions on the show tonight.
It is a big, big weekend. A lot of movement
about to happen. JP Pole. That's on the show tonight.
I've got coaching intel. It sounds like Auburn's making a move.
Sounds like LSU needs to make a move, but they

(01:41):
can't without getting their affairs in order down there, and
that hasn't happened yet. And there's Florida, Florida, the old
shark fin just offshore, just patiently waiting. I got added
best bets. We got a lot to get to. They're
watching us in Fort Payne, Alabama, Hayward, California, Sue City, Iowa,
and Grove City, Utah. Thank you guys so much. I'm

(02:01):
also gonna let you know if you're putting Marcel Read
in the chat, I'm banning you from the channel. So
that's your final warning on that I bet him. I
bet him to win the Heisman today. No one needs
to sell Marcel Read to me anyway. You have been warned, Jesse.
You have the band hammer, get ready to swing it.
So the college football playoff rankings just got released. Reecee
Davis talked about this. But I don't care that Reees

(02:22):
Davis talked about it because he's right about it. So
I'm gonna lead the show with him. There is a
doomsday scenario out there for the ACC. We see the iceberg.
That's the good news. We can avoid it. As a conference,
this is me and the ACC. We're speaking amongst ourselves
right now. I've never even called myself acc paate, but
there's a first time for everything. We can't let this happen.

(02:43):
We can't let this happen. What is this? What are
we talking about? What is this? All? Right? There is
a world where the ACC misses the playoff, which was
once thought to be impossible. But that was a whole
different world. That was like three weeks ago. Now it's possible.
Here's what needs to happen. Duke wins the ACC. That's
really what needs to happen. And then a couple of
these teams fall. Here is the big concern right now.

(03:07):
Miami is the highest ranked ACC team. They're not gonna
play for the conference title. Their best shot is to
be an at large team, which I think they have
some possibility for and I'll talk about that later. Then
you got Georgia Tech at sixteen. I think they could
go and play for the conference title. So let's just
bookmark them. Virginia they're limping right now. Louisville they're limping

(03:28):
right now. Pitts at twenty two. They play Notre Dame
this weekend. Also, some of these teams play each other.
So let me just paint a picture for you, because
I know you're thinking in your head, he's crazy. The
ACC champ is guaranteed a spot in the playoff. No,
they're not. They're not. It's just at ninety nine percent
of the time, all of the power for conference champs

(03:51):
would lock down spots in the playoff. Here's the rule.
The rule is there are five automatic spots given to
the five highest ranked FBS conference champs. Now, it was
thought when they constructed the playoff, we don't need to
say the highest ranked Power four champs. It just goes
without saying Conference champs in Power four leagues are always

(04:15):
gonna trump conference champs from G five leagues. That's just
always gonna happen. Well, yeah, we thought so. Here's the problem.
Maybe not Duke is eight and four or could be
eight and four. They're five and four right now. They've
got three more games. Only one of their losses is
a conference loss, so they have to play Virginia, North

(04:36):
Carolina and Wake Forest their final three games. Looks like
all three of those games are at home. By the way,
Duke could go to Charlotte to play for a conference title.
At eight and four. As of this moment, it looks
like Georgia Tech is their most likely opponent. What if
they go and they do that, and they play Georgia

(04:57):
Tech and Charlotte and they beat Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech's
gonna be They're not going to be an at large.
Would Duke here's the question, would Duke be one of
the five highest rank conference champs? You may think, Oh, yeah,
I don't know that they would. I certainly don't think
that they'll be ahead of USF. Let's say if USF

(05:19):
wins the American and I don't know that they'd be
ahead of James Madison. If James Madison wins the sun Belt,
and once we swallow that harsh potential reality, we ask, okay, well,
what is the ACC's best shot to get a team in.
It would probably be Miami, which brings me to my

(05:40):
next point. We get off the doomsday scenario for just
a second. Miami's got some oxygen. But I don't know
if you were listening. I was listening to the Playoff
committee chair talk on the broadcast and they were asking him, Hey,
how do you perceive the ACC And he sort of
showed the committee's hand and a little bit he said,

(06:02):
outside of Miami, this league has no good out of
conference wins to hang its hat on. So it's up
to you, Miami. It's what I'm saying. There could be
a distinct possibility here. It's up to Miami. Miami has
some oxygen. I do think there was a little correction
in the rankings tonight. They got bumped up three spots.

(06:22):
I do think there was a little correction because they
were too low last week. First reaction we had on
the show last week, Miami seems a little bit too low.
It's almost like people are taking their frustration out on
them via the ranking. So they're fifteenth right now, look
at the graphic in front of you. If you're listening
on podcasts, Well, I just told you Miami's fifteenth. They
need to get up to the number ten spot basically

(06:43):
for an at large spot, because you have to assume
a couple of those eleven to twelve spots, maybe for
the conference tie ins, like the twelve spot's going to
go to the G five team probably. So let's just
think this through here. Let's name the teams in front
of Miami, Vanderbilt. Vander Bolt's got to go play Tennessee.
Vanderbilt very well could get knocked out Utah. In fact,

(07:05):
I wrote this down. Utah plays our number thirty, thirty
one and thirty three teams in the jpeople, which I'm
going to talk about later. So Utah's got three tough
opponents left. They play both the Kansas schools. Who else
did they play Jesse? They got one other opponent. Utah's
got three like legit opponents, So Utah could lose. Brigham

(07:25):
Young is sitting there at twelve. They've still got to
play Cincinnati, and even if they get through that, they
could go to the conference title game and lose. Let's
put a pin in that, because I have a lot
of differing opinions in my own head about how the
committee may handle a Brigham Young team that loses their
second game in the conference title game. Oh you is
at eleven. Oh You plays Alabama this weekend. Texas is

(07:49):
at ten. Texas plays Georgia, Texas plays Texas, A and
m Notre Dame's got pitt on the road this weekend
point being, I mean, Oregon's got you, still, Organ's got
Minnesota this week they got Washington. At the end of
the season, all these teams ahead of Miami have losable
and in some cases multiple losable games coming up. Question

(08:10):
number one is Miami going to take care of business?
That's not a given, that is not a guarantee, But
let's assume for the sake of argument, they do a
lot more oxygen, a lot more life has been breathed
into the once thought to be dead chest of Miami.
So what I'm saying is, let's take care of business.
That's what I'm saying. Texas Tech jumped up to number six. Okay,

(08:34):
I've got a thought here, and I did a straw
poll around the office and it's like fifty to fifty.
You guys can tell me what you think about this.
I think Texas Tech, if they went out, has positioned
themselves to grab the number five seed. I do believe
that if Texas Tech wins out, and that includes going
to Arlington, going to Dallas, and winning the Big twelve

(08:55):
championship game, I believe the added data point of winning
that comp French Championship by a team that's already perceived
to be well inside the top ten is going to
be enough to jump them over. Like George is there
right now, I believe it would be enough to put
Texas Tech there. It's a big deal because, yeah, you're
going to get a home playoff game no matter whether

(09:16):
you're five or you're six, or your seven and you're eight.
But the number five seed, like right now it's Georgia,
that's the team that in all likelihood gets to play
the G five team at home as more than a
two touchdown favorite. It's a very enviable spot. It's not
a guarantee of a win, but it's a very enviable spot.
Whereas if you drop to six, it becomes a little

(09:36):
more of a crapshoot because you've got no clue who
could be the eleven seed. So I think Texas Tech
is in a good position. Now McElroy brought something up
tonight and it's a bridge that's a little bit too
far from me at the moment, but I don't think
it's crazy. He said, forget about the five seed. Could
Texas Tech be in position to potentially grab one of

(09:56):
the top four seeds. Now that's where people are going
to have problems. I'm telling you, that's where people are
going to have problems because if these top four right here,
if Ohio State and Indiana went out and they go
play in Indianapolis, the loser of that game is going
to believe it is their birthright to still maintain a
top four spot. I'm not going to be here to
disagree with them. And if Texas A and M and

(10:18):
Alabama went out and they go to Atlanta, the winner,
of course gets a first round by. The loser is
also going to think it their birthright to maintain a
top four seed and get a first round by. And
again I'm going to agree with them. But there is
going to be an argument out there that Texas texts
good enough as a conference champ to jump up inside
that top four and grab one of the first round bys.

(10:41):
Now that's going to be a huge debate if it
does play out that way. I still think we need
to see the games play out before you really know.
Like I always go back to, I think it was
the first year of the four team playoff. I think
that was the year that Ohio State went into conference
championship Saturday and the thinking was they're on the outside

(11:02):
looking at I think this was twenty fourteen, and then
they just skull drug Wisconsin. I will never forget this
because it was our first introduction to sort of how
the fourteen playoff era was going to work. And it
went from Ohio States on the outside looking in, no
matter what they do today, to oh they just won
fifty nine to nothing, there's no way we can leave
them out of the playoff. And it happened over the

(11:24):
span of a few hours, just like the drum beat
went from soft to deafening to Ohio States in to
Ohio State goes on and wins the whole thing. That
kind of stuff can happen. Point being in the committee room,
how would the committee handle bring him young if they
win their remaining games and then lose another game to

(11:47):
Texas Tech in the Big twelve championship game. And I
want you to think this through with me. Last year
SMU was they were like nine ten somewhere like that.
They went to Charlotte, they lost a competitive conference championship game,
the committee refused to drop them out. The thinking there,
which is sound, it's logical, was if you're already inside

(12:12):
the playoff bubble once your regular season ends, and you've
earned the right to go play in a conference championship game,
no matter if you lose there or not, we should
not punish you for earning the right to play an
additional game just because you lost that game. Because you
got teams like Notre Dame who are sitting at home
cause they don't play in a conference. And then you

(12:32):
got other teams like number eight Oregon, let's just say,
who didn't earn the right, So therefore they enjoy the
comfort that they're not going to drop. You shouldn't have
to suffer a drop just because you played an additional
game and lost. Well, the thinking is already crystallized after
one year, since they didn't drop SMU last year, there's

(12:54):
no way they're never going to drop anyone. That may
be the case. I'm just suggesting, might we want to
pump the breaks a little bit on, assuming that we
know how steadfast that committee is in that train of thought,
because here is something that could happen and what I'm
about to say should not happen. Let me be on record,
my opinion is what I'm about to say should never

(13:15):
enter the equation. But these are people and there's a
lot of money on the line. We watched SMU get
benefit of the doubt last year. We watched them not
get punished and not dropped out, and they got sent
to Happy Valley, and they got smoked in the first
round of the playoff. And you remember what the talk
was just as well as I do. Everyone will screaming,

(13:36):
see SMU. They didn't deserve a spot to begin with.
I disagreed with it. I thought the committee got it right.
I thought SMU should have been in. It didn't matter
if they lost by one hundred. They belonged in over Alabama,
they belonged in over South Carolina, they belonged in over
Ole miss That was my opinion before the game, that
was my opinion after the game. I'm not on the
committee this year. And all I'm saying is, if Brigham

(13:58):
Young were to go and they finish eleven and two,
but they suffer another double digit loss, three possession type loss,
might the committee look at them. If you got a
Miami floating there who finished the season strong, and say
we're gonna put Miami in over them, maybe it shouldn't happen.

(14:20):
I'm just saying, I don't think it's the craziest concept
in the world to consider that it might happen. Now,
we hit up FanDuel. We're just out there on the
horn with FanDuel as the committee is releasing their rankings
and then we're just penciling in the bracket. And what
I like to do with FanDuel is I like to say, guys,
we don't have to wait until these games happen. We

(14:40):
can just go ahead and pretend they're going to happen.
And they're like, okay, what do you want? All right, Well,
what I want is I want to know what the
lines on these games would be. So they go and
they spin them out just like the model, and FanDuel
got us hypothetical lines on all the projected first round games.
So here's what they would be at Georgia. Georgia would

(15:01):
be favored by seventeen and a half. Yes, friends, that's
a playoff game. Take it up with the committee, not me,
Notre Dame at Oregon. Oregon would be a short one
and a half point favorite. Miami at Texas Tech. Can
you imagine that would be like the Hillary Clinton giff
she walks in a random kitchen, eyes wide open. Can

(15:22):
you imagine Miami folks showing up in Lubbock? That was
like Texas folks showing up in Starkville the other day?
Just what is this? Are we on the moon? Miami
would be a five point dog at Texas Tech and
then Texas at Ole Miss? How about Ole Miss favored
by four, which implies that also be favored on a
neutral field. Now those are your current hypothetical lines for

(15:47):
projected first round games. Yeah, there is a lot of
movement that's about to happen this weekend. Ladies and gentlemen,
welcome into the show. Happy to have you with us.
If you're new around here. Thank you for watching It's
college football all year. I ask humbly, humbly but forcefully,
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(16:09):
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It is written right there. It's our show because of you, guys.
I appreciate it so much. Quick Trip is fueling us
down to Athens, Georgia this Saturday, Texas at Georgia seven

(16:29):
thirty kickoff there on ABC. We will be there. Laura
Rutledge is even gonna be there. That's how you know
it's a big game. I mean, Chris is there, and
Kirk is there, and Holly's there, but Laura Rutledge gets
brought in extra special time. Quick Trip fueling our trip
down to Athens. And I also want you to know
I have it on good authority. Maybe a little Quick

(16:52):
Trip event there in Athens, maybe outside of the Miller
Learning Center, maybe from three thirty to seven thirty Kevin Butler.
Maybe they're signing autographs, especially later in the day Free
Coke floats. Yes, all that's really happening. So our good
Quick Trip friends are going to be there on campus.
They don't go to many campi during the season, but

(17:14):
this is a campus that they will be at. And
also just a little fyi, I am told because I
have access to the data that the fault don't lie
to her. Athens Georgia edition, which is available for one
week only, is flying off the shelves at paytstatematerial dot com.
Will it beat the numbers our Lubbock T shirt did
last week? Because the Lubbock shirt is our best seller ever.

(17:37):
So our balls are in your court down in Athens,
Our balls are in your court. Let's continue. We got
a lot of games to predict tonight. I wanted to
get to one small pressing matter first. Though. Coaching searches
are going on everywhere. You cannot walk around the SEC

(17:57):
without seeing a coaching search happening on your nearest street corner.
It's happening all over the place, except at LSU, where
they can't even get the search really started in earnest
because they can't figure out what they're doing. Mema would say,
they can't take a leak without getting in the front
of their pants wet. At LSU right now, it's a
sort of embarrassing to watch. So if you've been living

(18:18):
your life and you haven't been following this. Brian Kelly
got fired down there, you know that. And Brian Kelly's
owed a whole lot of money, you know, because LSU
signed their name on the dotted line of a contract
that guaranteed him a lot of money if they fired him.
They fired him, they owe him a lot of money. Shockingly,
they don't want to pay it. And so this is

(18:39):
now going to play out in a courtroom. And it
would be okay if it played out in a courtroom,
as long as it didn't play out in the court
of public opinion. But looselips, especially motivated loose slips, can
sink ships very quickly. Mema also said that. And so
now it's just out there, everyone's reporting on it, and
the grand and some is that if I am a

(19:03):
candidate for the LSU job right now, if I am
Lane Kiffin, for example, I am watching my prospective future
employer take my predecessor to court to not pay him
money that the contract they signed with him says that
they owe him. Now, if you're just a viewer at home,

(19:24):
you think, oh, there goes LSU again. Boy, they're crazy
about football down there. That is not the reaction. Let
me emphasize for clarity and emphasis, that is not the
reaction that prospective candidates for this coaching opening have when
they watch possibly their future employer try and prevent themselves

(19:47):
from paying money that's owed. It's not a good look.
So it's going over how you would think it's going over.
Sometimes there's a lot of drama and it's much ado
about nothing. This is not that. So I've hit up
some people today. Yesterday I've kind of been in intact
with people about the whole structure of LSU throughout this
whole thing, and the general sentiment had been, yeah, it's

(20:09):
a little messy, but don't worry. They don't have to
make a hire this week, so they've got a little runway.
They can get their affairs in order. Let's get the president,
then we get the ad, then we figure out who's
on the search committee. Then you start doing your zoom interviews,
and then you do your in person interviews, and by
the time that an offer is put in front of
a candidate, there'll be a lot more familiarity and we

(20:32):
will have smoothed things over and that's all gone. That's
all gone. The thinking now I mean, I just I
flat out asked people today who would be involved and
who would know about the search, And I said, is
this hurting things like I think it is? And they said, yeah,
multiple people, not just one person. So I have no
idea how to tell you the LSU search is going,

(20:54):
because it's not going. How can it go right now?
So you have to look, the whole point of firing
a coach is to upgrade. In today's college football, you
have to be an unequivocal upgrade for a qualified candidate.
So of course, if you offered the job to a

(21:14):
G five head coach, almost certainly he's going to take it,
maybe aside from like a John Sumrall, you know, like
the highest commodity G five coaches. Now you go offer
the job to a high school coach, He's probably going
to take the LSU head coaching job. It doesn't matter
how big a disaster it is. He'll sign up for
the money and say, fine, fire me in three years.
I don't care. It's got to be an unequivocal upgrade

(21:38):
for a qualified candidate. There aren't many qualified candidates to
be the head coach at LSU that are upgrades from
Brian Kelly, to begin with the ones who would be upgrades.
The ones who would be qualified normally have good jobs already,
so you have to convince them that your spot is

(21:59):
a lamb dunk in arguable upgrade from where they already are.
Do you think Lane Kiffin right now looks at the
state of affairs at LSU and thinks, well, that's better
than what I got going on here at Ole Miss.
They do anything I want them to. I've got minimal
invasion from outside influences. I get to act pretty much

(22:21):
however I want here. I am winning, I am competitive
in Nil. They love me here. I claim to love
it here. And I say that sarcastically. I think he
really does. Do you think he looks at that right
now and says yet, that'd be an unequivocal upgrade from
what I have? He does not, or if he does,
he's wrong. So they got to get things figured out

(22:42):
pretty quickly down there. I'm here if you guys need
to talk, I'm here now. Auburn, on the other hand,
a place that historically has been prone to train wrecks
behind the scenes, pretty much has their act together. I
talk to you about this last week. I said the
perception is not the reality with Auburn. The perception is

(23:04):
people playing on old stereotypes about Auburn, and the further
you get away from the program, the looser people are
with saying that kind of stuff and they don't really
know what they're talking about. At Auburn, I think there's
really good alignment at Auburn. I think there's really really
good structure. The proper people are motivated to make the
right decision here and as a result, I think they

(23:25):
had a really busy weekend. From what I hear, they
had a very productive weekend. And I think they're much
further down the road than LSU is, maybe even than
Florida is. And I don't even compare Auburn to maybe
the Arkansas or Virginia Techs of the world, because they're
fishing from a different pool of candidates. And truth be told,
if there is overlap between the candidate pool and an

(23:46):
Auburn versus an Arkansas or a Virginia Tech, it's because
Arkansas or Virginia Tech would get the leftovers that remained
in the pool after Auburn fills their spot. I'm trying
to be respectful about this, but that's the way it
is so and jos of on three Fame, Jesse on threes,
Pete Nakos, it's on his birth certificate on Three's. Pete

(24:07):
Nakos put out a little article earlier today, not before
he stopped in my office and gave me my own
personal update. I like to compare what I'm hearing with
what young Peter is hearing. Same things, same things. Pete
has his ear to the literal ground during the day,
and so he put out a piece today that said, Hey,

(24:30):
John Summerl's a strong candidate here. DJ Diurkin's going to
get a look. Look, you guys know as well as
I do. If DJ Durkin were to have beaten Vanderbilt
last week, this would already be very loud. If they
beat Bama at the end of the year and they
win the Iron Bowl, which is going to be like
Super Bowl time down there, they probably need to win
that game to make a bowl. I think that's how
the math works out. Dirkin's going to be really, really

(24:52):
strongly in consideration. But as of right now, I'm not
backing off what I've said. My stance for a while
has been if I'm Auburn, I am absolutely going after
John Sumrall. I have not thought that he's the only
qualified candidate. I've just thought to myself, if I am
describing what I want in the Auburn head coach, that

(25:14):
guy meets all my criteria. That's me. I'm not talking
about theirs, that's me. So I think he's very strongly
in the mix here. I would call him the favorite
to get this job, but not like a ninety percent
overwhelming favorite, because I think they're still doing their due diligence.
They're going through their process and that due diligence has
been done. That's the important thing to note here, not

(25:35):
that it's a race. When you get the right guy,
you get the right guy, doesn't matter if it happens
Tuesday or Friday. When you get the right guy, you
get the right guy. But it is competitive, and so
it is in your best interest to be ahead of
the pack. And I think Auburn's ahead of the pack
right now. Arkansas, just to talk about them quickly, they've
done their due diligence as well. I think they've got

(25:56):
a weight. Okay, if they're competing with Auburn, they're not
really competing with Allburn. Auburn is a better job than Arkansas,
and so you know, like, let's just take Alex Golish
as an example. This is strictly generic. I want to
emphasize that if Golish wanted the Auburn job and Auburn
said we're going to go in a different direction, then

(26:18):
he's a candidate for Arkansas. If offers are on the
table from both, I think Alex Golish or any other
candidate probably takes the Auburn job before Arkansas. That doesn't
automatically mean Auburn gets a leg up on you, because
you could have your perfect candidate fall in your lap.
All I'm saying is, whether it's him, whether it's James Franklin,
whether it's any of a number of other candidates, you

(26:40):
may have to play a little bit of a waiting game,
which I know it feels like you already have been
because you have. That's the current state of affairs at Arkansas.
As for Florida, I don't think anything's changed at all.
I think they're just waiting on a Lane Kiffin and
a lot of people down there that I've spoken to
feel really good about where they are with Lane Kiffin.
They may have reason to feel good about it. I

(27:01):
have told you guys many times I will not discuss
this with head coaches during the season, So I'm not
gonna be the one to hit Lane up and ask
him what he's thinking. It has been my opinion that
he has not made his mind up yet. But if
someone at Florida knows different, good on them. This week
at LSU has to have helped Florida's cause. It can't
have hurt It cannot possibly have hurt Florida's cause. So

(27:24):
until further notice, if I were a Florida Gator fam
I just be buying the Lane Kiffin stop and if
they need to pivot, they can pivot. And it's not
like they've been sitting down there saying we're not going
to do a thing until Lane tells us no. Of course,
they've worked on contingency plans. Truthfully, there are probably some
really good candidates out there that are on that contingency board.

(27:45):
I think it's Lane that's been one of the easiest
coaching searches to see through. Sometimes you get this wrecking
ball out of left field at at the eleventh hour
and a name comes in that you never thought existed.
I don't know that's the case at Florida. Then again,
the state of a wrecking ball. The very nature of
a surprise wrecking ball is you wouldn't know about it.

(28:07):
Here's what I do know. Tis the season. Tis the
season for what coaching searches? Yeah, but what else? Well?
Conference championships coming up? Yeah? Yeah, keep going? What am
I really talking about? Don't overthink the room. Christmas that's
what's coming up. And before Christmas gets here, cold weather
gets here. Trust me, I know it snowed in Nashville

(28:28):
yesterday and I think that probably explains the spike that
we saw in the pet State store on all of
our Tis the season merch cause the sweaters are moving. Okay, Finally,
the other night on the show, I pointed out the
tis the season to be Chuggy sweater, which is my favorite,
and it finally started to move. Merry Christmas. You Filthy

(28:49):
Casual is still in the lead right now, but the
Christmas sweaters are moving. Paytstatematerial dot com. It is my
goal for us not to sell out. We as a
show do not sell out, and we as a peate
State store hopefully will not sell out, not because we're
not selling a lot of gear, but because We're really
good at restocking. Remember when we first opened the storageesse

(29:13):
and we could not keep any inventory. Well, we got
a bigger store now, so paystatematerial dot com. All right,
here we go. We got big games this weekend. Texas
at Georgia Saturday, seven thirty Eastern kickoff, ABC, Texas at Georgia. Man,
this game is fueled by Quick Trip will be there,
so we're looking forward to this one. This one was

(29:33):
one you could see from miles away. You circled it
in spring. Think about being a Georgia season ticket holder.
You got the Bama game at night, you got Ole
miss come in there, you get Texas at night. Unbelievable
year to be a Georgia season ticket holder. Texas is rested.
Georgia's on their third straight game. They played Florida, they won.
They played Mississippi State, they won convincingly. Texas eleven and

(29:58):
three since joining the SEC. But that doesn't really matter
in this game because two of those losses are to
Georgia and they both happened last year, and Texas had
a combined sixty yards rushing in those two games. So
this is the final SEC game for Georgia. This is
it They got two out of conference games to end

(30:19):
the year, so their conference resume is done and in
the bag. As Saturday around midnight, what's it going to
look like? Arch? Manning been leveling up lately. He's got
a shot to blow up here. This could be Arch's
unofficial official arrival on the big stage. So who can
run it? I don't really want to talk about guys
throwing the ball yet, who can run the ball? Georgia

(30:42):
has done a great job. I know it's dirty talk
to give praise to Mike Bobo. The closer you get
to Athens Georgia, the less they want to give Mike
Bobo praise. But you know what, We're a pro Bobo show.
We always have them. So I'll give him praise because
when I look at this piece of paper, how bad
it looked last year, and I see Georgia as a

(31:03):
top twenty five rushing outfit right now. That is cause
for celebration. So give him a cake, let him lick
the icing off the candles, do whatever he wants to.
I don't even know when his birthday is. Give him
a cake, but then tell him Texas has got the
second best run defense in the country. He won't be scared,
but he needs to be aware of it. Texas almost

(31:24):
certainly will struggle to run it because until further notice,
I don't know that Texas can match physicality with Georgia,
which needs to be in the hype video. It needs
to be played in the building. You had two shots
last year. You got a frying pan to the face
both games, including one where the backup quarterback came back
on you. But again, you couldn't run the ball on them.

(31:45):
Last year. Two games, two games and you barely got
to have one hundred rushing yards. It's not a phrase
I've ever used before. Now Texas is running back room
should be as healthy as it's been all year. So
there's that. I don't expect a good rushing game out
of Texas. We may may get one out of Georgia,

(32:06):
but it's a pride spot for Texas. Georgia doesn't have
anything to question their pride about Texas does. They got
a lot more to prove in this game than Georgia does.
Georgia gol loses game by thirty and I'd still know
overall what Georgia football is under Kirby Smart. We're still
kind of trying to find out what Texas football is
going to be long term under start? Are we not?

(32:26):
I think we are? But imagine this headline in July.
Scratch that. Imagine this question. If I were to ask
it to you in July. If I said, Hey, you
seen the schedule? You see November twelve, thirteenth fourteen? Was
this fifteenth? November fifteenth? I think it'll be Jesse. Have
you seen who plays who? Second week in November Texas

(32:47):
at Georgia. What if I told you in July that
game is destined to come down to quarterback play In July,
who would you have thought that favors gunn Er Stockton
versus arch Man? You would have said huge edge Texas.
I would have I would have said huge edge to Texas.
What do you think, now, who's the big edge there?

(33:10):
If it comes down to that, And I'm saying that
because I think it will, Who's the big edge there
could be Gunner Stockton. As of late, arch Man has
come on a little bit. Georgia pass defense outside the
top fifty Texas past defense in the nineties, So both
quarterbacks are going to have some work that they can
do against the opposition's secondary. I completely trust Gunner Stockton

(33:33):
and how he's elevated and how he is he's a
field general now is what he is, fully in full
command of the offense. Rusty Manziel was in the building today,
had a nice little length to convo with him about honestly,
a lot of stuff that I can't say on air,
but some of it was about Gunner Stockton, and some
of it was about the freedom he has to operate

(33:54):
within that offense, the willingness, the willingness now that he
has both operating the offense and throwing the ball that
he didn't exactly exhibit early in the season. See that's
the hallmark. And these really really good programs with offensive
staffs that know what they're doing, their quarterbacks continue to
get better throughout the year. You notice how that happens.

(34:16):
It always randomly seems to happen at Georgia. I know
Mike Bobo can't coach himself out of a wet paper bag,
according to some of you, but his quarterbacks just keep
improving throughout the year. It's crazy. He hasn't paid me anything.
By the way, There's been a lot of disproportionate Mike
Bobo love. It's only cause the dude gets trashed relentlessly,

(34:36):
like anytime Georgia goes three and out. So I just
want to counter the little scale there with some Mike
Bobo praise. I trust Gunner Stockton. Can I trust Arch Manning?
Here is he beginning to do the same thing. Georgia
very low havoc rate. They have struggled to get after
the quarterback. They're a low and sack rate. They're low
in takeaways. Texas is not that way. Their top ten,

(35:00):
their top fifteen in sacks. So Gunner Stockton faces a
little different challenge from the other side of the ball
than maybe Arch does from Georgia. I am convinced I
have figured out where this game will be decided. Two categories,
tackle and yards after catch, specifically tackling in space and

(35:21):
yards after catch. We saw a CJ. Vogelstat that I
had to put on the show. Gunnerstocked and Arch Manning
are one and two in the sec in pass attempts
behind the line of scrimmage. Allow me to translate both
of these programs recruit premier athletes that they trust to
do things with the ball in their hand. And if

(35:44):
you can't tackle, then yards after catch becomes the most
important stat in this game, and so I'm gonna sometimes
I predict the padlock stats, mistackles yards after catch those
in some shape, form or fashion I think will be
the padlock stats in this game. I walked in the
building today and I I always guess what I'm gonna

(36:07):
do before I break the game down. I was like
sixty percent leaning, I'm a bet Texas. I'm gonna pick Texas.
I'm gonna do it. And then I thought to myself self,
how can I trust Texas to flip all the critical
factors in this game. They are winless versus Georgia. Last year,
they really got humbled twice against Georgia. Georgia is nearly

(36:29):
perfect at home. I trust Kirby and his staff in
this spot more than I trust Sark and his staff.
That's no disrespect. They've earned the right for me to
say that about them, and the Texas side has not
earned the right for it to be said about them.
Texas on the road this year, they faced Ohio State,
they lost. They faced Florida, they lost. They faced Kentucky

(36:53):
and narrowly won. They faced Mississippi State and narrowly won.
They have not been a good road program, going to
a place where the home team virtually never loses, and
it's the best team outside of Ohio State that they
will have faced on the road all year. What they
need is they need a repeat of that Bama moment
they had in twenty twenty three. I think it was

(37:14):
you remember sark and Texas, they go on the road,
they beat Alabama. It was like a huge coming out
party and it was them announcing their arrival. Was it
really though? It was a great win, but was it
really like did that fundamentally alter the course of college football? No,
not in the way a lot of people thought it would.
Let's take a look at what the model thinks. Fanduels

(37:36):
got Georgia as a six and a half point favorite.
Right now, now you know what the model thinks about Texas.
I almost hesitated to even show you that the model
shockingly only has Georgia minus four. The Model has long
been tied at the hip with Texas. Texas is one
hundred and seventeenth in the country in penalties. I think

(37:56):
home field is going to matter here. Home field. A
lot gets set about Sandford Stadium, I can tell you
at night, especially big time opponent in town. It's a
special place now. Bama went in there and they took
care of business earlier this year. They were razor sharp
on third down. It was the most efficient offensive performance
they probably had all year. They still only won by three.

(38:20):
I don't think Texas can go in there and be
that efficient against Georgia, and if I'm wrong, I'm wrong,
but I don't think I am. But what I do
think is Texas will compact the game and I don't
think Georgia will pull away. So I don't have a
strong feel on the game other than those factors that
I just said, all lean Georgia. So I think it's
a close game and a one possession game. So I'm

(38:40):
going to do the thing where I take Georgia to
win in Texas to cover, which just means I think
it's going to be close and I'm not betting on it.
But Kirby and his staff have found a way in
these one possession games for a couple of years now,
and I think they're going to find a way in
a one possession game to win it against Saturday. But
it's going to be It's going to be a very

(39:01):
very memorable weekend in Athens. Georgia temperatures in the low seventies.
I think upper sixties at kickoff, So it's gonna be
a good one. The other night I told you about
a new journey that we're going on with flex Power,
and basically here's what it is. Flexpower has got the
best generators in the game. They got the best generators,

(39:23):
I say on Planet Earth. They are friends of the program.
They have partnered with us. Talked to Danny today, Actually
I texted Danny today, and here's what we have decided.
These generators are like eight hundred dollars values. We're gonna
give away a few of them. We're doing it right now.
We started it the other night. I don't care if
you need it and cash power goes out if you

(39:45):
need it to power your tailgate and spoiler alert, you
do you know how you use a generator? You have
a million and one uses for a generator? Do you
want a free one? If you do, it's pretty simple. Actually,
you just need to tell me why you need it.
Several of you already did this. I'm going to give
you until this Sunday to maximize your chances to whim.

(40:07):
Here's all you need to do. Just record a video.
I don't care if it's vital, vertical, horizontal, I don't care.
Record a video explaining to us why you deserve one.
One guy did it in gear from the Peate State
store the other day. I'm pretty sure that dude's getting
free generator. We haven't decided yet. I'm pretty sure that
guy's getting a free generator. But we still have more

(40:27):
to give away. So the only thing you need to
make sure you do needs to be a video and
you need to add that hashtag flex power flex and
then just post it Instagram, Twitter. I don't care. We
will be looking, we will be monitoring. We're giving away
one per Sunday for the next three Sundays. You have
been warned in a great way. Let's continue another game

(40:55):
breakdown here, another big one. Oklahoma at al Alabama Saturday,
three point thirty eastern, two thirty local kickoff on ABC.
Alabama has won seventeen straight at home. Oklahoma is all
right now, Jesse, make sure I get this right. Oklahoma
is ten and eleven away from Norman under Brenton Venables,

(41:18):
but they're three and oh this year in true road games.
So notice what we did there. We added the Texas
game in the first st at category, but I removed
the Texas game in the second one because it's not
a true road game. It's a neutral site game. So
Brent Vinables has not lost a true road game this year,
and that includes a trip to Temple and Tennessee. So

(41:39):
I have got a little nervousness about this game. Why
am I nervous? It's not because I'm playing in it,
although my national championship pick is playing in it, and
that's Alabama. But it's not why I'm nervous. I'm nervous
because I am very confident in picking this one, very confident,
and so is the model. And the model and I

(42:01):
agree on this. You know what, I'm not nervous. I
shouldn't be nervous. We've won money all year with me
agreeing with the model. So let's lean into it here,
all right. So for Oklahoma, John Mattiir has got to
give me enough here, He's got to give you enough.
I need a better game from him than I got
against Tennessee, which sounds weird because they went on the

(42:21):
road and they won against Tennessee. They did, they did,
but they had a lot of other critical factors tilt
their way. I'm not taking anything away from them. I'm
saying I can't count on that to happen again. So
I need better than nineteen of twenty nine for one
hundred and sixty yards, zero touchdowns and one pick. What
he did do, John Matteer, being the he is, he

(42:41):
did put up eighty yards on the ground and we
have seen several mobile quarterbacks give Alabama fits, So that's
got to be a staple of their offensive attack this Saturday.
He has not thrown for over two twenty five since
the thumb injury, which it hurts because I had a
Heisman ticket for John Mattire. One thing that can alter

(43:04):
this though, And I say, I can't lean on this,
but maybe I should. Maybe I should buy into the
idea that Oklahoma's ground game really is finding itself. That
offensive line's playing with a different nastiness. According to friend
of the program, Gay Biker, his words, not mine. Did
Teddy Lehman back him up on that? That's what I

(43:25):
need to find out, because if Teddy doesn't agree, I
really don't care what Gay Biker said. That's a lie,
very very sweet individual. When it comes to gas stations,
he's confused, but he has a good reason to be.
It's okay, I understand, but yeah, if that offensive line's
coming into its own, A lot of young guys, by
the way sign of court sort of coming into their own.
They're coming out of a bye week here, they've had
Xavier Robinson running for one hundred yards per game. All

(43:47):
of a sudden, Hey, if that shows up, I don't
need as much from John Mattire. I still think I
need a better game than I got from him against Tennessee.
But you'll notice we've gotten a few minutes into this
thing now. I haven't made you should run defense yet.
There's a reason why I don't think it's the biggest
thing in the game. I have heard a lot of

(44:07):
people talk about this game this week, and their biggest
thing I don't think is the biggest thing. The biggest thing,
according to most of the free world out there, is
Oklahoma's run defense being top five, maybe the best in
the country. Against an Alabama team that struggles to run
the ball, Oh man, it's strength on weakness. Yeah, that's
why I don't really care. I'd care if Alabama was

(44:30):
relying on being able to run the ball. They already don't.
I don't care if you shave Oklahoma's defensive profile in half,
Bama still wouldn't run it on them. So what are
you really taking away from Alabama that they haven't already
proven they can function fine without. I'd be more worried
if Bama was averaging like thirty yards more on the
ground per game, because that would almost lean me into

(44:52):
Alabama's depending on running the ball to be able to
beat you. They're not. So it's actually a crazy concept here,
but in football, it makes sense when your best strength
matches up with their biggest weakness and it's a successful team.
Sometimes that team has just figured out a way to
overcome their weakness. Alabama's figured out a way to overcome

(45:14):
their weakness and still scale their offense through really extensions
of the ground game, but also they throw the ball
really well. Now, the follow up to that can be
there's a big difference in you need five or six
to stop the run versus you're consistently stopping the run
with four, And if Oklahoma can do that then and

(45:35):
I think they probably can, that's when it becomes more difficult.
But just on the surface, if you're telling me, man,
Oklahoma's going to hold bamat to fifty five yards on
the ground. So did LSU. So did LSU. Now you
may say, well Bama only scored twenty in that game. Yeah,
if you'll go back and watch it, I think there's
a lot left on the table in the past. Game

(45:56):
that didn't necessarily have a whole lot to do with
LSU as much as it had to do with Alabama.
And I'll mention more on that in a second. So
what kind of day do I get from Ty Simpson?
How much time is he given to throw? Oklahoma is
really good at getting to the quarterback without having to
bring numbers, much less when they do bring numbers, and
Brenton Venables has been known to do such things. How

(46:19):
good of a game do I get from Ty Simpson?
Because he hasn't had a disaster game. The first game
of the year even wasn't really on him. He hasn't
had his disaster game. He's had varying degrees of good, better, great,
had bad. Yet can Oklahoma make him have his bad game?
It's the best defensive front he will have seen. If

(46:41):
his pass pro breaks down, then you could force him
into some uncomfortable throws. You could just turn the ball over.
You could force errant throws. You could bat balls in
the air, and that could fundamentally change this game. It's
hard to predict that happening, but that could fundamentally change
this game. If he has an adequate time, there will
be plays to be made against the Oklahoma secondary. I

(47:04):
go back to the old Miss game. I go back
to the Tennessee game. Now, one of them they won,
one of them they lost. But in both of those games,
teams threw for over three to fifteen against them, which
led us to realize that Oklahoma pass defense statistic was
a little misleading, not a lot, but a little misleading.

(47:24):
But it doesn't matter if they harass him all afternoon,
will they hmm? I told you I was confident in
this game. I tried to present both sides there. Oklahoma
strength does not take much away from Alabama. Oklahoma strength
to stopping to run doesn't take much away from a
team that already doesn't run the ball. The pass defense

(47:47):
at Oklahoma is the key in this game. And against
the two best passing attacks, the only two passing attacks
comparable Tobama this year, they gave up three point fifteen
and three ninety three through the air. It is a
do up spot for Alabama for explosive plays through the air.
If you go back and watch the LSU game last week,
they won, they covered. There was so much meat left

(48:09):
on the bone. Not wildly overthrown or wildly underthrown balls,
balls off the fingertips, balls that you think to yourself,
with an entire week's focus on precision and accuracy, probably
yield better dividends the following Saturday turnover margin on the year.
Oklahoma in the one teams Alabama top ten, and this

(48:31):
is Oklahoma having to go on the road in one
of the toughest environments they'll play in all year. I
think Alabama's going to win the game by double digit Saturday.
The model thinks that the line is off. Alabama is
currently a five and a half point favorite. A lot
of people are terrified about this game. I don't feel
that way. I think Alabama's gonna win the game and

(48:52):
end up handling it. It will not be pretty at
all times, but I think fourth quarter you're turning it
on way through and you're saying, Wow, they found themselves.
They found the stuff through the air they didn't necessarily
find last week against LSU. Still want against LSU but
didn't find it. I'm gonna take Alabama to win. I'm
gonna take them to cover, and we're gonna add this

(49:14):
on the Ram and Noodle Express as one of our
best bets of the week. We're adding Alabama minus five
and a half in the middle of the show. Feel
really good about that one. They're watching us in Buckhead, Georgia,
Colorado Springs, Colorado and Winchester, Tennessee. It hurts. It brings
me no joy because we've got a lot of friends
in Oklahoma. And you know what, Jesse, didn't I pick

(49:34):
Tennessee to beat them. I did. I did pick Tennessee
to beat them. So I wasn't as confident then as
I am now. We have a short track record of
whiffing on Oklahoma games. You know, I'll be here Sunday
either way. But I do feel like I see the
matchup differently than a lot of people. I've heard a
lot of people pick Oklahoma to win the game outright.
I do not see that game that way. This one's

(49:58):
gonna be fun. This one right here is gonna be fun.
Iowa at USC Saturday. It's a three thirty Eastern twelve
thirty Pacific kickoff on Big ten Network. Don't even ask.
It's a ranked game. It's a ranked on ranked games
on Big ten Network. Congrats to the folks at Big
ten Network. Now I hear you, I hear every one

(50:19):
of you, and I know what you're saying right now,
Lucky Iowa man, who this game's gonna be a far
cry from last week? They're saying, who thirty seven degrees
and rain in Iowa City couldn't be Southern California. They're saying,
it brings me no joy to present to you this
weekend's weather forecast in normally sunny Southern California. Friday heavy rain,

(50:47):
Saturday heavy rain. This concludes your a weekend forecast for
southern California. It's gonna be a repeat of last week,
but about twenty degrees warmer. That's what we're walking into,
maybe heavier rain. I didn't know it was monsoon season,
but apparently it's monsoon season out there. Passing offense, it

(51:08):
should be noted USC number ten Iowa in the one thirties.
Who cares. They don't need to throw the ball this
weekend anyway, but be careful. I know what the historical
trends say historically, oh man, you give a slight breeze
to USC and their entire offense implodes because they're just
a fireworks offense. It's just pinball on grass. Just throw

(51:30):
the ball all over the place. Mix in a run
every now and then. Iowa boom, boom boom, run the ball,
stop the run. USC is vastly improved run of the football.
They had thirty six carries for two twenty four and
two scores against Michigan out physical Michigan in the coliseum.
Might I add they played Nebraska thirty eight carries again

(51:51):
over two hundred yards. Those are the two most comparable games,
probably to this one. They didn't have as much success
against Notre Dame, but this one is at home. I
don't think Iowa was as good an offense a good
as team is Notre Dame. So you probably don't need
to score in the mid thirties like you did last week.
Iowa just gave up two sixty on the ground against Oregon.

(52:12):
You can run the ball on them. Having said that,
Iowa just needs the Oregon game again, which sounds a
little weird. Didn't they just lose the Oregon game? Yes
they did. Wasn't that at home, whereas this one's on
the road. Yes, I will grant you those points. They
need a replay of the Oregon game stylistically. There's a

(52:35):
reason I came on the show Sunday and I said, boy,
hat hat tip to Oregon. Oregon won playing Iowa's game.
Iowa turned it into their game. They just didn't win.
I Was probably got an eighty percent chance of winning
any game that they control stylistically, not one hundred percent.
So good on Dan Landing in Oregon. You throw on
the cotton hoodie, you beat Iowa playing their own game,

(52:57):
get out of there with a win, move on to
the next week. That doesn't mean Iowa screwed up, just
means they didn't do quite enough. Someone say that's the
same thing, but you get my point in taking that
style on the road. Looks like it's gonna be rainy, ugly,
gross conditions again, and this time you're playing USC and
you just got to be a little better on third down.
That's one thing you need to do. You were five

(53:18):
of thirteen last week. You need to be a little
better there. Oregon was top fifteen in the country in
third down defense. USC is closer to fiftieth so you
should put yourself in position to have more success there.
You lost the turnover battle last week. You know you
got no business losing the turnover battle. You're Iowa. They're

(53:38):
not supposed to be open in the game with a
safety that's supposed to be you. So you gotta have
those critical factors tilt your way. Gronowski doesn't have to
throw for three hundred, just make one or two more plays,
and you gotta think you're gonna give yourself a good
chance to win this game. It's a culture game. Even
though USSE did what they did against Michigan, you're still

(53:59):
kind of thinking the years, the totality of a Big
ten season. You're just waiting for it to take its
toll on USC. Well, they control their playoff destiny right now.
They're sitting there ranked what were they fifteen, something like that,
So they're right there in the thick of things. It's
a massive hinge game for Lincoln Riley, for his career

(54:20):
at USC. It's a massive hinge game because if they
win this game, that Oregon game becomes a super Bowl
up in Eugene in a couple of weeks. Actually it
would be next week. Yeah, if they lose it. I mean,
if they can't beat Iowa at home, they're probably not
going to Eugene and winning, and they're probably on track
for another eight and four season, maybe seven to five

(54:42):
if they can't beat UCLA. But I mean, just think
about the difference in trajectory. You win this week, maybe
you go to the playoff. You lose this week, you're
probably going eight and four again. There's minimal traction, there's
minimal improvement, and all the noise starts again. But it's
also a big mentality check moment for Iowa. It's not easy.

(55:06):
What they had happened to them last weekend at home
would gut most teams. And now they're going on the road. Now,
they just watched the playoff committee tell them, hey, we're
still gonna rank you number twenty one. They only dropped
them one spot, which I don't have a problem with.
But now they go on the road and USC is
on longer rest than them. It's just to mentally tough

(55:29):
program they're gonna need to be. Let's take a look
what the model thinks. FanDuel's got USC out to a
six and a half point favorite. The model is much
closer in its thinking it's got USC minus three and
a half. You know what I'm going against the model.
I'm a ride with Lincoln Riley. I'm gonna take USC
to win. I'm gonna take USC to cover, and I
think they're gonna do it playing a physical style of

(55:51):
football the likes of which you haven't seen Lincoln Riley
teams really capable of playing in the past, except that
they did it against Michigan. They did enough it against Nebraska,
they didn't quite do enough of it against Notre Dame.
I think they'll do it here. Ugly game, hideous game,
how windy is it? How effectively can they still throw

(56:12):
the ball in the rain? But I think they're going
to win the game and cover. So I disagree with
the model here. I'll tell you what I do agree with. Though.
We made an announcement on the show the other night
about a charity that we were partnering with. A foundation
that we were partnering with I got. I haven't even
been able to open all the dms and emails we
got overwhelmed with feedback from our announcement of our partnership

(56:36):
with the Magnolia Foundation the other night. So a quick recaps,
I know not everyone caught the Sunday Show. The Magnolia
Foundation is a foundation that helps with people who lose
children age zero to eighteen. They help with funeral expenses,
they help with counseling, They help with commemorative care, which

(56:57):
is just making sure someone's there on important dates, birthdays, anniversaries.
Long after the attention has faded from tragedy, they're still
there and I love those guys. Matt himself lost his
daughter in the tornado that came through here back when
I first moved here. Our building got hit by it too,

(57:17):
but we just got side swiped. They weren't as fortunate,
and he lost his little girl. And shortly and after
they had to go through what they had to go through,
they started this foundation to help other people who are
going through something similarly. So we have long planned on
partnering with them. We finally pressed go on it. We

(57:38):
announced it the other night. We're doing several initiatives, but
one of the first that we can announce immediately is
in the Pate State store, you'll see the Magnolia Foundation
hats and shirts, the ones that say you are loved
a ton of you. Grab those the other night. Portion
of those proceeds are going to the Magnolia Foundation, and
we'll have several other things that we're doing with them.

(57:59):
You don't care about the shirt, if you don't care
about the hat. If you just listened and said, well,
I just want to go contribute directly, you can the
Magnolia Foundation dot com, slash give. That's how you can
go check out what they're about. That's how you can
go give it your leisure. I'm told a lot of
you did. I'm told one of you gave a very
charitable donation the other night, and then in the comment

(58:21):
section said happy to help, but Peyton needs to talk
about Indiana more on the show. I think those are
fair terms really, when it comes down to it, for
the right cause, I will talk about Indiana more on
the show. But I appreciate all the feedback we got
on that, and they do as well. They don't have
a mic in front of their face. I do. I'm
speaking for them. They appreciate it. Really really good work

(58:44):
and really important work that they do, and we're happy
to be able to help in some small way. All right,
let's move on. Notre Dame is at pitt Saturday. It
is a noonkickoff right there in Pittsburgh, PA. Game day
is there. It's on ABC. Jesse, a Pennsylvania native, tells

(59:06):
me that Pitt fans have been very mauvy lately. He
tells me that since penn State has fallen off and
Pitt is ranked, that the pit folks are running around
the Keystone State running their mouth. Jesse, is this accurate?
You told me this earlier. He's not happy about it.
He had choice words that he mixed in as he
recounted this to me. But apparently that's a reality up there.

(59:28):
So there are members of my staff that have baked
in bias in this game. I don't couldn't be me.
I'm gonna call it right down the middle as I
see it. But surely, if that's the case up there,
and surely if Notre Dame's rolling in here with their
playoff lives on the line, and Pitt's right in the
thick of the race too, and everyone's jacked up for

(59:49):
it and game days come into town. Surely Pat Nardoozi
views this as a must win game. Right, Surely, Bradley,
let's roll it.

Speaker 2 (59:57):
Do you feel like this is a must land for
this team? When it comes to absolutely not? You know
it is not an ACC game.

Speaker 1 (01:00:04):
I'm left glad you brought that up.

Speaker 2 (01:00:05):
It's not an ACC game, you know. I gladly get
beat one hundred and three or one hundred and ten
to ten in that game. They could put one hundred
up on us. So I was winning the next two
after that. But again, our focus is on a Notre
Dame and getting this many wins as we can.

Speaker 1 (01:00:22):
All right, check that it's not a must win game.
We could lose by ninety and it'd be okay. They're
gonna play the game anyway. And you know, I don't
think people know Pitt. I don't think people know a
whole lot about Pitt. What do you know about Pitt?
I know most of you haven't watched their games. That's okay,
that's okay. We're gonna give you a pass on that.
We're disappointed, but we're gonna give you a pass. People

(01:00:44):
make mistakes all the time. Smart people do casual things
all the time. Casual people rarely do smart things. So
if you have committed the college football crime of not
watching Pitt, how do you think they're playing? You probably
think pit football, ground and pound very physical. That is
not at all What is happening with Pitt. If you're

(01:01:06):
watching on YouTube, you can see those scores over there.
Does that look like ground and pound? Does that look
like ball control? That looks like track meat after track meat,
which is exactly what Pitt wants. It started out once
upon a time that Eli Holstein was going to be
the hope at quarterback for Pitt. That changed pretty quickly

(01:01:28):
and Mason Heinschel That's how I'm pronouncing his name. He
took over true freshmen. He's been on fire and you've
probably seen highlights of him, but this Saturday you're probably
going to watch a whole game of him. He's thrown
for three hundred plus and four of his last five.
They've got the one hundred and fourth rushing offense in
the country. So what you think normally about Pitt is
not this year's pit team. It's kind of crazy to

(01:01:50):
watch him. It looks like different team wearing Pitt gear.
With the style they're playing. Notre Dame is fifteenth against
the run. They are eighty nine against the pass. That's
a caveat because a lot of people tend to believe
that Notre Dame has rectified their defensive woes. And then
other people will say, yeah, but they haven't played anyone,
and I'm like, well, they played USC and then there's

(01:02:13):
they're like, well, us he is a fraud. I'm like, okay,
by that metric, what are we even talking about? It
just sounds like you hate Notre Dame, and if you do,
just say it. But but if you're going to get
Notre Dame's defense, you get them through the air. And
if Pitt's gonna get Notre Dame to begin with, they're
gonna get them through the air. So theoretically, this is

(01:02:34):
how you'd want to stack up against Notre Dame. Again,
theoretically because there is this other factor, and that is, yeah,
but we're Notre Dame. Sounds arrogant. Sometimes that's all you
need to know about these kinds of games, Like Pitts
one of the best of a bad conference and Notre
Dame has hit their groove And maybe it doesn't really
matter what these stats on this piece of paper save

(01:02:56):
maybe it's thirty to three at halftime Saturday. That could
be the way it plays. How real is that pit
run defense? That's what we need to know, cause on paper,
I have a piece of paper right here. Do you
hear that it says Pitt has the number three run
defense in the country. We will find out one thing.

(01:03:17):
There aren't many certainties in this life, but one of
them is Notre Dame will test how good your run
defense is. It will test the paper a lot of times.
It runs right through the paper. Even in the Louisville loss,
though Pitt still controlled Isaac Brown. They lost the game,
but it wasn't cause they got run all over. West
Virginia had the most success against them. That was like

(01:03:40):
the first game of the year, and since then, if
we believe Notre Dames turned a corner, then we could
reason to believe Pitt turned a corner. Only Miami has
held Notre Dame under one hundred rushing yards, though, and
that was forever ago as well. So a lot of
the worst things that happened to these two teams happened
a long time ago, and they've each hit their respective
strides since then. This is the last resume builder for

(01:04:02):
Notre Dame. They were sitting there at number nine in
the playoff rankings when they got released tonight. This is
the last whiff of a ranked opponent they will face.
They got at Pitt. Pitt's currently ranked I think twenty
second or twenty third. Then they got Syracuse, then they
got at Stanford. So this is it. This is it.
After this, their resume is largely done and the only

(01:04:24):
thing they can do is hurt it. After this, it
could turn into an excellent quarterback matchup. I've gotten this
deep into it. I haven't even mentioned CJ. Carr. But
if it is the case that Pitt's able to not
shut down Notre Dame's run game, but limit Notre Dame's
run game, I don't believe you can shut it down.
But if they somewhat limited them and it's up to CJ.
Car to throw the ball to win, he can. He can.

(01:04:48):
Mason Heinschel, could he throw the ball to win? Yeah?
I think he could could be one of the best
quarterback matchups of the day. Notre Dame's defense forces mistakes though,
And what worries me a little bit here is you've
got a true freshman quarterback. It's not his first start
where he doesn't know any better. He's several starts in now. Now.
The plus side of that is he's gaining valuable experience.

(01:05:10):
The downside is there's more tape out there on him
and You've got a defensive staff here, especially the head
coach there, that understands how to spot tendencies, how to
expose flaws and weaknesses, how to bait, how to make
you see ghosts, how to make it look like they're
fourteen defenders on the field. Not impossible, just tough. Let's

(01:05:33):
take a look at what the model thinks right now.
FanDuel's got Notre Dame as an eleven and a half
point favorite. The model has Notre Dame minus ten. I
have to see Pitt do this to believe it. I
think Notre Dame's playing some really good ball right now.
I'm sure there'll be a big public side in this game.
I'm sure a lot of the public'll bet Notre Dame.

(01:05:54):
I just happen to be with the public. I happen
to be I just visualize a lot more frequently. If
I simulated one hundred times, I just see Notre Dame
comfortably winning a whole lot more than I see this
thing going down to the wire. But when you get
good quarterback play, you can win most any game. I mean,
if you got certain minimal baseline standards for your roster,

(01:06:18):
and if they get that out of Heichel Saturday. Yeah,
could be a deep four quarter game. I just think
Notre Dame's gonna force mistakes. They've done it so many
times in these kinds of games. I think they're gonna
force mistakes, take advantage of them, and I think they're
gonna win and cover. You could head over. Whether you
want a Notre Dame beanie or a pit hat, or
you want a new little little indoor putting green, or

(01:06:41):
you want big league chew, or you want some boots
or a baseball bat or base balls, you can to
Academy Sports and Outdoors and you can get it all. Yeah,
you sure can. They are longtime partners of the show.
We really appreciate them. It says on the bottom of
the screen, We're proud to partner with Academy. Yes we are.
We are. You'll notice in the show, I'm never looking

(01:07:03):
at a piece of paper reading what Academy gives me
to say, because that's not how partnerships work. Partnerships are Look,
please don't drag us into a lawsuit. Don't say anything
that's gonna get us sued. But you know what we're about.
Just make it sound good on air, very easy because
academy is very easy to make sound good. Now, if
you can't get there in person, that's sad, because you

(01:07:25):
should go there in person. I do, even if just
to take a picture in the parking lot. Sometimes I
go in person. But if you can't get there in person,
that is okay. We will allow you to go to
academy dot com. Some would even say it's encouraged. I
encourage you to go to academy dot com if you
can't get there in person. We appreciate them. Longtime friends
of the program. What do we have? We got like,

(01:07:46):
we got several thousand people tune in live. If she
knows I thought I was gonna sneeze, I got a really,
really good streak of shows going where I haven't sneezed
on air. Make sure you're subscribed to the channel. And
if you are, thank you. But fifty one percent of
you are not. And if you are one of the
forty nine percent who are subscribed, you know the drill.

(01:08:08):
It's time to go recruit friends, family members. Swipe mom's
phone when he's not looking subscriber and then log out.
You're good. She won't know, it won't hurt her. We'll
all be fine, I would even encourage that kind of behavior.
Some people have gotten child life supremacy for proving that
kind of behavior. Again, you know what time it is,

(01:08:29):
We're very close to five hundred thousand. In the meantime,
the JP Pole has been released. These are not rankings.
Don't even call them rankings. That's what the Playoff Committee does,
That's what the AP does. That's what I do on
Thursdays with the Commissioner's Pole, not on Tuesday. On Tuesday
we release the JP Pole. The JP Pole born from

(01:08:50):
the model here is strictly teams listed in order that
they would be favored on a neutral field. So even
if you're six and six and I'm twelve and zero,
so if the model would favor you by three on
a neutral field, you're gonna be ahead of me. And
then we're gonna post the graphic on Twitter, and then
people are gonna lose their minds and they're gonna ask
how can a six and sixteen be ranked over an

(01:09:12):
undefeated team? And I'm gonna say they're not. No one's
ranked anywhere. These are not rankings. Rents repeat that is
the life of the JP Pole every week, and then
someone says, well, if it's this confusing, maybe you shouldn't
put it out. And I'm like, your confusion is not
my problem. I give a helpful tutorial on this stuff

(01:09:33):
every week. You're an ability to listen, not our problem.
I'm not changing the name of it either, because we
really let the name JP pole. So James Madison is
still our highest Power rated G five team. I want
to mention that because they're not in the top twenty,
so you're not gonna see them on the graphic. Also,
I want you to keep in mind as we show

(01:09:53):
you Utah, they're not in there. They're not twenty to sixteen.
They're rated a little higher than that. But Utah is
an interesting case because you saw Utah earlier tonight in
the College Football Playoff rankings and they were in the
top fifteen. We have them finishing the season playing our
number twenty nine, number thirty and thirty two teams in
the Power ratings, so they've got three formidable opponents left,

(01:10:16):
so that's something to keep in mind. Also, there are
three ACC teams in the top twenty five, and none
of them are really in the race for the ACC
Championship game. Miami's not gonna make the ACC Championship game.
Louisville's probably not gonna make the ACC Championship game. Of
Virginia is nowhere to be found in the JP pole
cause there are way more than twenty teams that would

(01:10:38):
be favored against them. Georgia Tech's not in here because
there are way more than twenty teams that would be
favored against Georgia Tech. Dukes nowhere to be found. There
are like forty teams that would be favored over Duke,
So just keep that in mind. All right, Here we
go twenty to twenty to sixteen. Clemson is back. Clemson
is number twenty. This is the first time because it's

(01:11:01):
been like three minutes where I have to remind you
power ratings, not rankings. Clemson would not be ranked anywhere
near my top twenty. Vandy is nineteen, LSU is eighteen,
still a top twenty power rated team there. It's just
roster talent, that's what it is. I was at seventeen. Well, well, well,
I have to admit something to you. I about two

(01:11:25):
or three times a year manually override the model, and
I have used two of those tokens over the last
two weeks to remove Penn State from the top twenty. Yes,
you heard me right. The model had Penn State in
the top twenty the whole time. I hit the manual
override button because it is my constitutional right to do that.

(01:11:45):
It is, after all, a poll named after me. I
didn't feel like listening to the noise. But you should
know the model had Penn State like number eighteen last week.
That's why we made them one of our best bets
in Rominutle Express Sandiana, and they almost won the game outright. Now,
everyone wants to hate on the front end when we

(01:12:06):
do that. And sure enough, if we put Penn State
in the top twenty last week, everyone would have said
terrible things about it, But they're never there to circle
back when the model gets validated and when the JP
pole gets validated. So Penn State's number sixteen this week.
They have not tapped out on the season yet. You
think about their losses close loss to Oregon, one point

(01:12:30):
loss to Iowa. Now, we don't necessarily want to talk
about Northwestern and UCLA. No we do not, No, we
do not. But Penn State's right there at number sixteen.
Interesting times in the neighborhood here, Miami is fifteen. Miami
dropped two spots. See they rose in the playoff rankings.
These are not rankings. Miami, the model continues to bail

(01:12:51):
on Miami. We have dropped them. I haven't dropped them
at all. Miami in the model has dropped almost nine
points since they're peak rating around week four, week five
or something like that. Crazy model. Very anti Miami right now. Wait,
Jesse wasn't Miami fifteenth in the playoff rankings tonight. So

(01:13:12):
we got Miami in the JP pole the same as
the playoff committee does, not that we designed it that way.
Just interesting. USC is fourteen, Oklahoma is thirteen, Texas Tech
is twelve. Again power ratings not rankings. Tennessee is eleven. Now,
I gotta tell you I would take Texas Tech against

(01:13:33):
Tennessee on a neutral field. So I look, I differ
with the model all the time. I did it in
the Georgia Texas game earlier on this very show. I'm
just saying the model would favor Tennessee against Texas Tech
neutral field. I would then gladly take the points and
I would slam the model shut top ten. Utah is
number ten. The model still has Utah as the highest

(01:13:57):
power rated team in the Big twelve, even though so
Texas Tech dusted Utah in their building. But one game
sample sizes not always enough to convince the model. Texas
is number nine right now. Oregon is number eight. They
dropped a point after last week. Oregon, they are down

(01:14:19):
three spots. This week dropped a whole point. Wow, I
thought it was a good win. The model disagrees. I
want you to hear that, Dan Lanning. It's not me.
I believe in you. But you know what doesn't believe
in you, math data, keyboards, numbers. The model sort of
thinks Oregon is secret trash right now, wet trash after

(01:14:43):
last week, still hadn't tried it out. That's sad. I
guess you got to change the way the model thinks
or else. Maybe the things they've been saying about you
are right all along. I don't know. Take it up
with a model. Notre Dame's number seven. They are up
two spots, and Ole missus number six. The top five

(01:15:03):
is unchanged. Georgia's five. Well, George is up to number five,
so after that it's unchanged. Bama's four, A and M
is still three, Indiana is still two, Ohio State is
still one. Some quick notes here, there is a zero
point two point gap between A and M and Indiana,

(01:15:24):
so they're the same team right now. Basically, Indiana was
very close to dropping to three. A and M very
close to rising to number two. It's irrelevant because there
is a five point gap between them and Ohio State.
That is the widest gap that we've had this year
between number one and the rest of the field. There
is a three point gap between Texas A and M

(01:15:44):
at three and Texas at number nine three points, while
there is five points between number one and number two.
For those that are interested, the SEC Championship game, according
to the right now, would be A and M favored
by a point against Alabama. We just asked FanDuel last

(01:16:07):
week and they said Bama minus one against an M.
Don't know if that changed or not, so the model
would slightly lean A and M in that game. These
are very interesting times. Miami just continues to drop, Penn
State is rising. To you. I want you to think
about how insane this is. Miami is one spot ahead

(01:16:28):
of Penn State, and I know no one believes that.
I know no one believes it, but you got to
understand the model has nailed Penn State. It has Penn
State pegged, So I don't know that I would be
so quick to argue with that. I'd be careful, be
very careful if you do disagree, not with me. I
don't have anywhere that you can bet my numbers, but

(01:16:50):
you can bet them on FanDuel. If you think you
have your own model that has things figured out, go
prove it on FanDuel. I'm about to give you a
best bet in a second, two of them. Actually, FanDuel
is the exclusive odds provider of the show. I placed
a hefty wager at FanDuel today on Marcel Read to
win the Heisman. Did I get bullied into this? Yes?

(01:17:12):
I did, but I did it one hundred of my
own dollars. I don't need one hundred dollars. I already
have one hundred dollars. So I took a hundred of
my dollars and I bet them on Marcel Read at
plus eight fifty odds to win the Heisman. So he
can't hurt me. He can only help me. Right now,
you can go to FanDuel if you're a new sign

(01:17:32):
up FanDuel dot com slash Josh Pate. If you will
you bet five dollars on anything, and if it wins,
you get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets.
It's just that easy. Big games coming up this weekend,
you can hit them all there. If you don't feel
like betting. If you don't bet, that's cool. You can
just go look at what the odds are over there.
I do it all the time. Nine times out of
ten when I go to FanDuel, I'm not even betting.

(01:17:53):
I'm actually looking up numbers and looking at the odds markets. However,
I am on three of these games.

Speaker 3 (01:18:00):
Must be twenty one plus and present in select states
for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or eighteen
plus and present in DC first online real money wager
only five dollars first deposit required. Bonus issued as non
withdrawble bonus bets, which expires seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply.
See terms at sportsbook dot FanDuel dot com Gambling problem
call one eight hundred gambler, or visit FanDuel dot com

(01:18:23):
slash RG call one eight eight eight seven eight nine
seventy seven seventy seven, or visit CCPG dot org slash
chat in Connecticut, or visit nd gamblinghelp dot org. In Maryland,
Hope is here. Visit gambling heelplinem dot org or call
eight hundred three two seven fifty fifty for twenty four
seven support in Massachusetts or call one eight seven seven
eight Hope, n Y. Or text Hope n Y. In

(01:18:44):
New York.

Speaker 1 (01:18:45):
As well as the Ramanudle Express T shirts are on
many of you. You may notice this little guy right here.
That's a pillow. Ramanuel Express pillow available in the store too.
But the T shirt is still our bestseller, I think
unless the Christmas sweater passed it by paystatemterial dot com. Okay,
so we gave you Coastal Carolina plus two and a

(01:19:05):
half the other night. That was our first best bet.
I added Alabama minus five and a half in the
show tonight, and we're going to stay in the state
of Alabama. I am also putting UAB plus eighteen and
a half on the board. Now. Remember, we couldn't care
less what your ranking is. We couldn't care less what
your record is. We are the show that proudly put

(01:19:27):
our money on Sam Houston State at eight last weekend
to go on the road. And they went on the
road in one at Oregon State no less, so we're
not scared. Look, if you're bad, they'll just give us
a whole lot of points to balance it out. So
at that point we trust the model, and the model
says uab fire, breathing and all plus eighteen and a

(01:19:49):
half against North Texas. And those are three of our
best bets. We will add more as the week goes on. Again,
a reminder just as we conclude the show here, if
you're not subscribed already, just click the button. Just do it,
Just click the button. I have gotten it on good
authority that many of you have listened to me ask

(01:20:10):
you to do that fifty times, and finally, on Plea
number fifty one, you finally did it. And then you
tweet about you say he asked so many times, I'm
finally gonna do it. I don't care. I'll ask as
long as it takes. It really helps us when you
subscribe to the channel and it doesn't do anything to you,
it just helps us. So we appreciate it. All right,
We'll be back Thursday night. We start at seven eastern

(01:20:32):
sixth Central on Thursday night. Cublic may or may not
stop by we'll see, we'll see, we'll see. For director Bradley,
producer Jesse, I'm Josh Pate, take care of have a
great rest of your evening, and God bless.

Speaker 3 (01:21:00):
Must be twenty one plus and present in select states
for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or eighteen
plus and present in DC. First online real money wager
only five dollars first deposit required. Bonus issued as non
withthrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply.
See terms at sportsbook dot FanDuel dot com. Gambling problem
call one eight hundred gambler, or visit FanDuel dot com

(01:21:22):
slash RG call one eight eight eight seven eight nine
seventy seven seventy seven, or visit CCPG dot org slash
chat in Connecticut, or visit nd gamblinghelp dot org in Maryland.
Hope is here, visit gambling heelplinem dot org or call
eight hundred three two seven fifty fifty for twenty four
seven support in Massachusetts or call one eight seven seven
eight Hope n Y. Or text Hope n Y. In

(01:21:43):
New York

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