Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:15):
Everybody's here. Some of you have been around for a while.
This may be your first show, but you know me,
Ma has made me promise several things, or made me
promise several things over my life. Number one, chase your dreams.
Number two, no fall weddings. Number three, don't lose to food.
So I didn't schedule rice today, so we're not going
to lose to food. We had to postpone yesterday's show
(00:36):
because I was doing number one. I was chasing my dreams,
in this case being a storm chaser. Saw two tornadoes yesterday,
mind you. And then we are what. We're less than
twenty four hours away from me being married on a
Thursday in May. So here it is. We're living it out.
You're welcome me, Ma, we're jam packed. We're hi atop
a congested downtown Nashville, Tennessee. So ACDC he was playing
(01:00):
across the river at Nissan last night, or so they thought,
and then weather changed all that, so they just moved
the show to tonight. Didn't really warn any of us,
and downtown is overrun. It's like someone kicked over in
ant bed, except instead of ants, it's just a bunch
of ACDC concert attendees in the ant bed. They're everywhere.
Love them, but they're everywhere, including our parking garage. What
(01:22):
are we talking about with USC and Notre Dame. Some
things should be off limits, you know. Some changes to
the sport should be off limits. Canceling that game should
be one of them. As future college Football commissioner, I
would address it, but I haven't been elected yet, so
all I can do is talk about it. Tonight. We're
gonna do some more job approval stuff, and we're also
(01:43):
gonna kind of get retrospective a little bit on some things.
Dabbo's legacy is one of them. But also I would
say forget Dabbo. Don't forget Dabo. But in addition to
dabbo zooming out from him, just think about the whole
sport past ten years. When we get thirty years down
the road, how will you tell the story of this
(02:04):
era of college football? What will you tell your kiddos
or just you know, wayward feral children in the mall
whose parents from nowhere in sight, when they run up
to you and say can I have some change? You
say no, And then they say, can you tell me
about college football thirty years ago? What will you tell
that child, what will you tell to put on some shoes?
But then after that, what will you tell that child?
(02:25):
How will you remember this era of college football? We
got a jam packed show tonight. They're watching us in Elizabethtown, Pennsylvania, Rome, Georgia, Jackson, Mississippi, Wichita, Kansas,
proudly brought to you by Academy Sports and Outdoors, as
we always are jeans. By the way, it looks like
I had to apply for a loan before I came
into work today. I'm never this dressed up. Nothing's wrong,
(02:48):
don't worry. I just had a weird schedule today. So
what are we gonna do. We're gonna have no Thursday
show because it's Wednesday, so we're doing a show tonight.
We'll have a Sunday show, so we'll be back on
schedule Sunday. So there you go. There's the housekeeping. In
the meantime, let's pop the paper, let's dive into the
show ton I appreciate you guys watching or listening. We've
been doing head coaching approval ratings. Now. This is not
(03:08):
a nationwide thing. This is not like if you're the
president and they ask everyone, do you approve or disapprove.
If I'm asking about a coach, I don't really care
about the nation. I really care about that coaches fan base.
So we worked what six coaches from the SEC end
the other night, I wanted to do another six. I
wanted to start with Kaylin de Boor. I've got him
at eighty percent. I got Debor polling at a strong
(03:30):
eighty percent amongst Alabama fans. Right now, I think it's
largely understood. Twenty twenty five is the green light year.
Of course you can. Nick Saban had trouble polling at
ninety plus percent amongst Alabama folks. So if you're not
Nick Saban and you haven't won a national title, you're
not going to be polling at ninety percent, which is
where our approval meter max is out here by the way.
(03:51):
So I think a lot of folks understand, all right,
last year was what it was. You replace a legend.
You come in also the portal and pre and post spring.
It's kind of sitting there and the players could bail
on you, and you kind of got what you got
year one. Yeah, yeah, yeah, okay, all that's well and good.
So twenty twenty five is the pivot year. Because I
(04:11):
promise you if they go eight and four or even
nine to three this year, if they missed the playoffs,
that number would plummet. Is that fair? Probably not? It
kind of is. I don't think they'd complain about it.
I think the one thing I've picked up on being
around Kaylin de Boor is the whole you don't want
to take over for a legend thing is lost on him.
(04:32):
He's not just coach speaking to you. When he says
that stuff. He could not care less about it. What
he cared about, what anybody who's an alpha competitor cares about,
is do I have the tools? Will I be given
the tools? As long as I'm giving the tools, I
couldn't care less who I'm following, whether it was a
dumpster fire or whether it was a dynasty, I'll forge
my own legacy. He really feels that way. I think
(04:53):
those fans respect that about him, and I think you know,
ultimately this year you're wondering things about them. Will they
be a to run the ball like they did? Of
course the quarterback question is still there, and you know,
if he is what we think he is as an
offensive head coach, if Ryan Grubb is what we think
he is as a coordinator who's been brought in by
(05:13):
that head coach and they've worked together before, that offensive
profile will be fine, and they'll be a ten plus
win team and they'll be in the SEC race, in
the national title race. And if that's the case, then well, somehow,
some way, you backfilled successfully from the greatest of all time.
I think it's only an eighty percent because I think
a lot of people were turned off by that Vanderbilt loss.
(05:33):
Not a lot. Well, yeah, you were all turned off
by it. Some people probably were turned off by it
enough to say, yeah, I'm still I'm still not sold
on this debor. Guy, this ain't Seattle. I think we
was said more than a few times around Tuscumbia and
op and Andalusia and Livingston. I'm gonna stop naming towns
in Alabama now. But you get the point. What about
(05:53):
Lane Kiffin? Oh, we knows it. Just what about what
about our friend Darren Ox Lane Kiffin's approval rating amongst
old miss fans, he will be happy to know, is
eighty five percent. That's about as high as anyone has
polled in Oxford, Mississippi in a long time. Eighty five
percent amongst the Old Miss fan base wine well, because
(06:14):
they're in pretty rarefied air. Think about the conversations Old
Miss is in. They didn't make the playoff last year,
and it was a big disappointment, and you know what
it should have been. But think about that, and we're
talking about LSU here, we're talking about Old Miss. I
don't care how big the playoff is for them to
just assume they should be in. For the nation to
(06:35):
be assuming they should be in, well, that's cause of
that guy right there. That's cause of what Lane Kiffin's
done with that program. So much is said about Lane
Kiffin in an extracurricular manner that people forget he's a
pretty good football coach, built a really good program there.
He's done it in an atypical fashion. He hasn't stacked
top seven recruiting classes on top of each other like pancakes,
(06:55):
because he knows that's not the kind of restaurant they're
running there, or to put it better, it's not the
kind of restaurant college football is allowing them to run
right now. So he's done it via the portal sort
of had to make their own way. He's done it.
I think they've appreciated that about him. I also think,
no matter how much validity there was or wasn't any
(07:15):
given case, his name's been out there for other jobs
and he hasn't gone again. Forget about the details. If
I'm an old miss fan, I just know our coach
is winning. He's in demand, but he's still here. And
Keivin has done a phenomenal job endearing himself to the community,
like to convincing people. And I think there's a lot
(07:36):
of authenticity in this of when I got here it
was a job, Now it's kind of a home. I
don't think that's fake. I think there's a lot of
authenticity to that. I think if you played him a
clip of himself saying that five years ago, he wouldn't
believe it. Those are his words to speak, not mine.
But I believe that about him. So he's Poland sky
(07:57):
high man. He's worked it very well there. Now when
I go up the road to Fayetteville, Arkansas, I can't
say the same thing. Sam Pittman love him, though I
may is polling at a dismal fifteen percent right now
amongst Arkansas fans. They haven't spent a single week in
the top twenty five. The past three years paper pop
(08:18):
for all the wrong reasons. They're in the bottom quarter
of the SEC right now. They always have a tough
schedule because the league office hates them, and this year's
no different. The other part about it is this is
always a precursor to bad news. When you get this
far in one, two, three, four, five, six years in
(08:40):
and I don't really know what the identity of your
program is, that's not a good thing. Especially when I
look at the O line. I know this has been
a big ripe amongst Arkansas fans. If nothing else, we
should have dominant offensive line play under Sam Pittman. I
think that's a completely fair expectation for them. They haven't
really had that, And so it's completely understandable. When you
(09:03):
get paid what Sam Pittman gets paid. I can assure
you this is not something he shies away from. The
expectation thing. When you get paid what he gets paid,
you don't shy away from it. You can't afford to.
I look at this upcoming year and I don't really
do hot seat segments here, but his job's in a
state of flux coming into this year. I think most
(09:23):
people around there and know that they're over under win
totals five and a half. There's a world where they
hit the over and he still loses it. There's been
a lot of buy out waiting and seeing up there,
and so now they're kind of in the range where
I think they could afford to make a move if
they want to, and we'll see. I mean, because we
were talking that way about Billy Napier as recently as
during last season, and he pulled the nose up big time.
(09:45):
And the other thing about Sam Pittman is everyone's pulling
for him there. Nobody hates him. It's not the case
at all. It quite the opposite. The Arkansas folks were
pulling extra hard for him because he kind of he's
one of them. I'm pulling for him because he fits.
You know. I have the special corner of my heart
for guys like Beamer at South Carolina or Kenny at
(10:08):
Arizona State, or Sam Pittman at Arkansas, the places where
it just feels like hand in glove, the fit is
so wonderful. I think that's great for college football. And
I think if we were to break that down, the
forty percent that are supporting him as opposed to the
sixty percent that would be given the thumbs down. Right
now are probably people who are keenly aware of how
(10:29):
bad a state that roster was in when he took over.
This is big boy college football, it's the SEC and
there's a sizable contingent of your fan base whenever you
get paid a lot of money that doesn't care to
hear what kind of rebuild you inherited. They think, well,
if I'm only paying you three million, you could tell
me about a rebuild. But if I'm playing you three
(10:50):
times that much, I don't care. Get it done. Now,
that's not the way the world works, but it is
the way a lot of fans think. And so there
is a chunk of the Auburn fan base not even
here to tell him they're wrong. They can feel however
they feel. They look at it and they say, hey,
we ought to be winning by year three. We should
not have some losing record in year three, And you
know what, to that, you're not wrong. But I think
(11:12):
that's why this season becomes a really really big wild card.
And I also think there's a you know, a minority chunk,
but a chunk nonetheless of the fan base that says
Harson left him nothing. I'll just tell you this, to
the forty percent there if you want some wind in
your sales. That's what other coaches say about Freeze and Auburn.
Other coaches, you get them off the record, they look
(11:35):
at Freeze and Auburn and say, yeah, that was going
to take him a little while. They were not in
a good spot at all. That's the words of other coaches,
not him. I mean he, of course, it's not going
to make excuses for himself. I think he's done a
really good job of trying to present the idea the
reality of what the situation has been. But see, here's
(11:55):
the thing. You can have all your one possession losses,
or you can be bitten by the turnover, or by injuries,
or by the fabled bobstat bounce of ball and it
doesn't go your way and you're six and seven instead
of nine to three. All right, But there is no
fan base at this level of competition that has room
for those excuses year three and beyond. And I think
(12:17):
that's fair because I think this era of college football
affords you the ability to totally overturn a roster and
reinvent a program in a thirty six month period could
be faster if you were left with a better roster,
but he wasn't, so it was going to take three years. Now.
If you've listened to him talk recently, he knows that,
(12:39):
and I think everyone around there knows that. And if
you do nothing more then tell me Jackson Arnold's going
to pan out at quarterback. I'll tell you that they're
going to be in contention for the SEC championship. If
you were to tell me that, I know that's a
big statement. The fan base believes that. I kind of
believe that, But I'm not the one getting pulled here.
(13:00):
Of the fan base is Hugh Freeze has still got
an opportunity to be one of the most universally beloved
coaches by his own fan base in that entire league.
Got to get it done this year. Mike Elko only
in his second year at Texas A and M they
went eight and five last year. I've got him pulling
at seventy percent. Could be higher. We could have gotten,
(13:22):
you know, faulty statistics, the West Texas contingent could have
soiled our sample size here. So who knows. Maybe Elko's
polling at higher than seventy percent. I think some of
those precincts close to like Alito places like that. Still
not reporting perfect fit though. Another perfect fit guy that
really really uniquely gets Texas A and M because he
(13:43):
was there before. He was a guy that when he
was brought in, on the surface looked like he was
inheriting a very, very loaded roster, but he wasn't. He
was inheriting a roster with some guys on it that
were formerly highly rated in recruiting. Recruiting is one part
of the way you measure the ability of a player.
(14:06):
The other parts that you really can't quantify in recruiting ranking.
A lot of the guys on that roster didn't have Frankly,
that's why jimbo Hi was able to get a lot
of them, and so he had to flush probably a bigger,
oh a bigger portion of the program if you will,
players and otherwise than the outside world probably expect him.
Think A and M fans know that A and M
folks follow their program very closely, so they were also
(14:29):
happy to have a no nonsense guy in there. Can
if you know Mike Elko, you ought to be extremely
happy in getting a guy who is supremely advanced in
evaluation and development. That's why the guy was a hit
at Duke immediately, and it's why he'll win. I think
at Texas A and M I'm saying this not just
to give you my personal feel on it. I think
(14:50):
that's how the fan base out there feel. So last year,
they would have loved to have been better, But at
the same time, I think they're looking and especially the
way he just totally took like ownership and control of
the blame about how bad the defense was late last year.
If Mike Elko is pissed off about defense for an
(15:11):
eighth month period, eight month period, I've got confidence that
that statistic, that metric will tick up fairly quickly. I
think the fan base feels that way. So I'd put
him at seventy percent. And then the other one that's
a total wildcard. This year, Brent Venables at Oklahoma got
him pull in at forty percent. Does that sound about right?
Maybe not? Chickashe Lawton end, You guys need to check
(15:33):
in out there. There's a dynamic here that's interesting about Venables.
The fan base got their man when Lincoln Riley bailed
on him and went out west. They wanted Brent Venables
and they got him. It's not like you wanted one
person and the administration went out and hired someone else
and just threw him in there and said, you better
(15:54):
like this guy. You got who you wanted. So there's
a little baked in sense of ownership the fan base
about Venables having said that it's big boy football. Everyone
understands what time it is, and you go six and
seven to ten and three, and you enter last year
and everyone thought it was off to the races. Offense
was a disaster, and it never really got off the ground.
(16:18):
In fact, it went six feet below ground. So the
question becomes how much of last year was just a
total reflection of the program versus how much of last
year was a reminder about how important a quarterback position
is and if you don't have it figured out, you
don't have anything figured out. I think most of the
fan base is still willing to lean towards the ladder,
but with the caveat that you better show me this year.
(16:40):
So Venables went out and he got John Matti at
quarterback from Washington State, and he got Ben Arbuckle at
coordinator from Washington State. And if it really was just
a quarterback problem, we'll know, because they'll come out of
the gate hut because that defense should be good, that
receiver room should be good, QB offensive coordinator combos should
be good. And you know what, if that's the case,
(17:02):
that number goes quickly up from forty percent up to
seventy plus percent because they'll be right back in the mix.
But you know, they got Auburn in there in week four,
they got Michigan in there in week two. They played
Texas in week six, so their second, fourth, and sixth games,
we will be doing periodic check ins there as well.
The fan base. It's just such a huge fork in
the road year, huge fork in the road year for
(17:24):
Brenton Vinables. You want to talk about an ab scenario,
I don't know. A freeze is like this. Venables is
like this about how different the outlook on them and
their programs could be based off the next twelve games.
To an extent, that's everybody. Billion. Napier's like that, to
an extent, that's everybody. But it doesn't really matter much
(17:45):
what Ryan Day does his next twelve games. Just candidly,
Kirby is probably safe, Dabbo legacy secured no matter what
happens their next twelve Games, Brent Vinnables, Hugh Freeze, uh
not so much. Get it done. You can get it
done Immunity by heading over to Academy Sports out Doors. Now,
I have some news for you people, and by you people,
(18:08):
I mean every single one of you. Normally, in this
time of one's life, if you're getting married, you expect gifts.
But I want to turn the tables and I would
just love to give stuff away. So I don't have
any conditions for you to meet other than just go
(18:30):
to Academy, which many of you do every week of
your life anyway, and then prove to me you went there,
buy something, don't loiter. But they're okay with our people loitering.
I just we're supposed to keep that off the record.
But go there. Buy something. I don't care if it's
a new tent or a pouch of big Leak chew,
but just tag me in. It could be anything, don't care.
(18:52):
I got a mountain of gift cards to give away.
So if you're a fan of free money and outdoor
goods plus, head over to Academy and you'll be glad
you did. And I'll be glad you did because I've
got a mountain of gift cards. I need to give away.
It is the giving season, after all. Let's move along,
because we are having something taken from us. No one's
(19:14):
given us anything. We got someone taking something from us.
Fire up the question, Colin, I cannot believe. Let me
take a simple water here. I can't believe it's happening.
But then again, maybe I can. So. I think a
thousand of you probably submitted this question. We just picked
one thoughts on USC potentially getting rid of the Notre
(19:37):
Dame rivalry game. Well, i'll give you some thoughts. One
in particular. I'm throwing up right now. You're making me
throw up. It's terrible. It's horrible. Pat Forty over at Yeah,
Who's Sports reported this. There have been whispers and rumors
about this for a while. Here's the here's the situation.
So they play every year, you know, because it's part
of the fabric of college football. But who really gives
(19:59):
anything about trade anymore. So this is the last year
on their current contract, so they will play this year.
According to Pat Forty, Notre Dame just wants to extend
the series. USC wants to extend it for one year.
They just kind of want to go year to year,
and there's some thoughts that maybe they don't want to
go long term. And look, I could trash USC here,
(20:22):
but I'm not really even gonna do that because it
shouldn't even be up to them. Hold On, an alleged
friend of mine is calling me while I'm live on air,
although it is a Wednesday show, so we're not normally
live on Wednesday. So I'll give Jeremy a pass. He
knows whom he is, so USC we could trash him
like many of you are doing on the college football streets.
(20:44):
We could say shame on you, USC, you're backing away
from competition, You're softer than bread, and we could do
all that, but I think there's a bigger picture issue here. However,
although the story was reported this week, for people who
have followed this for a little while, it wasn't a surprise.
Do we have that Lincoln Riley quote board. Lincoln Riley
at Big ten Media Days last year was asked about
(21:06):
this and he said, I'd love to continue the series.
I know it means a lot to a lot of people.
The purest in you, no doubt. Now, if you get
in a position where you've got to make a decision
on what's best for SC to help us win a
national championship versus keeping that. Then, shoot, you got to
look at it. Translation, if we take Notre Dame off
(21:30):
the schedule and it gives us an easier path and
we've got a better win loss record or statistically a
better shot at a better win loss record at the
end of the year because of that, then that puts
US in better position to make the playoff, which puts
US in better position to play for a national championship,
which means we should take a look at it. Lincoln
(21:50):
Riley's not wrong. That's why I'm not even here to
trash him or USC. It is certainly a pathetic mentality,
but you know what, he ought not even have reason
to have it. So a couple of thoughts here. We
were looking this year at what this would do. Now
they're gonna play this year, But let's pretend that this
went into effect this year. We do our own internal
(22:12):
strength of schedule metrics. If we did nothing more than
remove Notre Dame from USC schedule and put a random
G five opponent in there, USC would go from having
the fifth toughest schedule in the Big ten to the
thirteenth toughest schedule in the Big Ten just by changing
that game, so it means a lot. That's a game
(22:32):
on the road in South Bend, Southern Coast, probably a
point spread underdog, whereas if they play UTEP, they're probably
a four touchdown favorite at the coliseum. Makes a huge difference. Now,
you may think to yourself, if you don't know much
about college football and you're just riding around with your
fiance or you know your buddy and you just happen
to be hearing the show for the first time, you
(22:53):
may be thinking, certainly, there's something in the mechanism of
strength of schedule measurement to calibrate for this in college football.
You would think so, But there is this rogue army
of casuals who run around screaming you are what your
record says you are, to the point where it kind
of becomes a reality. And then there's like a contingent
(23:14):
of them that wants to do the right thing. So
every August they'll say I'm not gonna fall victim to that,
or when headlines like this appear, they'll say, no, no, no, no, no,
play the tougher schedule. We'll reward you for it, but
they cannot shake it. Come December, if you've gotten an
eleven and one G five pit it against a nine
to three Big Ten team for a playoff spot, they
(23:37):
will look at you and say, you can't put a
nine win team in over an eleven win team. So
the Lincoln Rileys of the world look at it and say, hey,
I'd love to play competitive games. But if that's the
way we're gonna think about this, why should I. The
answer is he shouldn't.
Speaker 2 (23:52):
Here's the follow up. He shouldn't have the choice. The
AD at USC shouldn't have the option. The president of
USC shouldn't have the option. The mayor of Los Angeles
shouldn't have the option. There are certain foundational.
Speaker 1 (24:06):
Pieces of this sport. Some of them are rivalry games.
Some of them are uniform combinations. I don't care. There
are many things about this sport that are fundamental in nature.
There are many things about the sport that are woven
into the fabric into the DNA of college football that
should be non negotiables. The head coach at USC should
(24:28):
never have the power to influence whether they play Notre
Dame or not every year the AD because those come
and go We've had dozens of head coaches and athletic
directors at these respective institutions, and yet they've played this
game ninety five times since nineteen twenty four. You want
to know what's canceled this game? Since nineteen twenty four?
There was this pesky little World War two we had,
(24:51):
and then there was COVID in twenty twenty. That's it.
It's either been pandemic or World War global conflict. It
hasn't been, but we may not make the playoffs. Can
you imagine that war cancels your game. Pandemic cancels your game.
Worried we may not make the playoffs because we're nine
(25:11):
to three instead of ten to two, cancels the game.
One of those is not like the other. Pathetic. I'm
not even bagging on Lincoln Riley. He shouldn't be in
position to influence it. It should be there. And when
you take the job at USC, or you take the
job at Notre Dame as the ad or as the
head coach, you should take it with the understanding you're
gonna play Notre Dame every year, You're gonna play USC
(25:31):
every year, and you know what, if you don't like that,
then guess what, you don't have to take the job.
It is the USC head coaching job, after all, it
is the USC athletic director job. After all. Plenty of
other people standing outside the door with their applications in
their hand. Now Here is the follow follow up. This
is partly on college football. Lincoln Riley shouldn't even have
this as a concern you, but you're currently in a
(25:53):
state of affairs in college football has been a problem
for a while. That's why I find the nearest drum
and I always bang it and I say, you've got
to find a way to recalibrate the way you define
strength of schedule and the way you factor it into
your postseason decision making in college football, because we suck
at it right now. It's been that way for a
long time. Win loss record is so easy to see
(26:14):
past if you understand how different college football is to
the NFL. But a lot of people don't. It's a
lot of people with powerful voices in sports predominantly cover
pro sports, and they just kind of drive by college football.
But they drive by it long enough to spew this
nonsense about your what your record says you are, and
it infects the conversation. It's infected. We get a sickness
(26:39):
every December, and that sickness is hey man, ten wins
is ten wins? Win your games? You know? I hate it. Oh,
I can't stand it. And so what happens is people
like leecoln Riley look and say, well, if that's the
way it's gonna be. I don't want it to be
that way, but if that's the way it's gonna be,
scratch the Notre Dame game, because you know what if
(27:00):
they go nine and three this year and they get
left out, no one's patent Lincoln Riley on the back saying,
you know what, you didn't make the playoff, but good
for you playing Notre Dame close in South ben you're
our guy. No, they're saying, why didn't you make the playoff?
And the committee, when he's nine and three, is looking
at him saying, uh, you had? They lost twenty three
(27:21):
sixteen on the road there in South Bend. They lost.
If this is the part they don't say, but they
are dead serious. If you just would a schedule Colorado
State instead, you'd be in the playoff. Why, because you
are what your record says you are. This is such
a stupid problem for college football to have. It's so
easily solvable, so easy you don't even need all the
(27:42):
commissioners to agree on it. Well, I guess you kind
of do. Just define strength of schedule the right way.
Have a dynamic in your sport that incentivizes scheduling up
instead of scheduling down. Right now, apparently we still haven't
rectified that problem, and it's oh wow, it's twenty twenty five,
so it's past time to do it. Bold predictions. Let's
(28:04):
roll on bold predictions. What are the things you believe
this year that you would bet your own money on?
How bold can you get? Well, here's one that I
think we're gonna disagree on because I rate these on
a scale of one to ten. Let's see what you
think about this one bold prediction? Number one from Brownsville,
Texas arch Mann he wins the Heisman. How bold is that?
(28:25):
Some of you are going to say, not bold? Because
he is the odds favorite at FanDuel right now to
win the Heisman Trophy? So how bold is it to
say the number one guy on the odds board wins
the Heisman? I say it's a nine because I say, well, yes,
but you are picking one player out of that group.
And let's be real, even though Arch is the odds favorite,
(28:47):
there's not a ton of gap between him and like
DJ Lagway. He's plus seven hundred Lagways plus seventeen hundred. Yeah,
you'd make more money if you bet on Lagway and
you won than if you bet on Arch and he won.
But it's it's very compressed, as you can see, and
if you're not watching, as you can hear. The other
thing is you're picking one player. I'm taking the field.
(29:09):
You're taking one player. That's why I would make it
a nine. However, this I do this frequently. I answer
a question, but then I debate the other side of it.
So there may be some people looking at that saying
Arch ain't gonna win the Heisman. No way. Well, I
would say, well, he is the favorite, so there is
a way. Well yeah, but that's just because they know
(29:29):
his name's big and a lot of people are gonna
bet on him. That's the same reason Vegas favors the
Cowboys by more than they should be favored every week.
Probably a little truth to that, But I mean, what
should he be fiftieth No, so he should be in
the lead pack. But if you say there's no way
he's gonna win it, well, that obviously means you got
it figured out. So where are the slam dunk choices?
(29:49):
Above and beyond Arch Mannings, Garrett and Nessmeyer. A slam
dunk Heisman winner to you is Kate Klubnick. A slam
dunk Heisman winner to you is gonna be Jeremiah Smith.
That's a non quarterback. Where's the slam dunk? So yes,
Arch absolutely belongs up there. And then I would imagine
someone else is yelling a first year quarterback's not gonna
win the Heisman. Have you heard of Caleb Williams? Have
(30:13):
you heard of Bryce Young? Have you heard of Kyler Murray?
These are just recent examples at the quarterback position of
first year starters who won the Heisman. So it's a nine,
but it's there, It is there to be had. Next up,
this one's not to me. Jason from San Diego said,
both teams in the National Championship will not be from
(30:34):
the power too. So no big ten in the National
title game, no sec in the National Title Game. That,
my friend, is a ten on the boldness scale. We
have some disagreement in the office today, but it's a ten.
So at FanDuel right now, fifteen of the top eighteen
teams in the odds to win the national title are
big two teams. Notre Dame is six, they're not one.
(30:57):
Clemson is eight, they're not one. That's really all you
need Miami's thirteenth. If you get a Notre Dame Clemson
national title game, this prediction hits. So it's not impossible.
I just think it's highly improbable. And here's the thing.
You got twelve teams this year. You're guaranteed three teams
at least that are non big ten SEC. You could
(31:17):
have as many as five, just depending on how the
field shakes out, so you'll have representation minimum a quarter
of the field will be non big ten SEC. So
you'll have some candidates in there. Are they gonna run
their way because because remember, you have to have two
non SEC non big ten And I think that's it's
not impossible, but it warrants a ten next up. This
(31:40):
would be a disaster. Michelle, shame on you. Michelle. Friend
of the program met her last year at this game. No,
it was the Texas Michigan game. So she just said
the whole thing on fire. She goes Michigan will beat
Ohio State for the fifth straight year. This is only
an eight. I'm not going to continue to, you know,
(32:04):
get a hammer to my face on this game. We
were called a Michigan boot licking program the other day,
by the way, from uh what was the guy's name.
I promise I didn't forget intentionally. Detroit radio host you
know you know who he is. He called me a
Michigan boot licker on the air, and I defended myself.
(32:24):
But you know what I forgot to say on the show,
I've picked Ohio State to win this game four consecutive years.
I am zero for four. I'm the worst Michigan boot
licker on the planet because I never pick them to
beat Ohio State and they always do. So what does
it take for this to happen for a fifth straight year? Well,
the line's out. If you want to bet this game
right now, you can. Ohio State is favored by five
(32:47):
and a half at Michigan. The game is obviously in
late November. There is no way anyone knows what these
teams will look like by that point. There is no
way you know what those quarterback positions look like by
that point. However, if you think to yourself, huh, a
ton of defensive line production lost for Ohio State. And
(33:09):
that's where we've owned them. We've had the physical ledge
over them, and we trust the Michigan physicality no matter
the names on the jersey, and we got them in
our house. We'll be able to lean on them. Shorten
the game, compress the game. Hey, maybe you will. That's
why the lines five and a half not fifteen and
a half. And last year it didn't even matter that
it was that big. So the other thing that I
was thinking about here, I don't know how it would
(33:31):
impact the game, but it would somehow is the NCAA
decision should be handed down by now. So either one
of two things is happening. Either Michigan does get hammered
and they view this as their super Bowl basically, or
Michigan doesn't get hammered. And one of the things that
Ohio State folks have really held close to as sort
(33:55):
of a thing to look forward to in the future
is out the window. And Michigan's gotten some reprieve and
that they go into it free and easy, and oh,
by the way, we've beaten you four in a row.
Why should we be nervous about this. Just an interesting dynamic.
I'm going to make this an eight, no bolder than
an eight. Lastly, this would be Sad Trent from Nashville, Tennessee.
(34:18):
He says this will be the final season for two
of the three longest tenured head coaches at their respective schools.
So we got Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State, we got
Kurt Farrance at Iowa, and it was Kyle Whittingham at Utah.
And he's saying two of those three will be done now,
he said, at their respective schools. I don't really see
(34:40):
a world where Kurt Ferance takes a new job, or
Kyle Whittingham takes a new job, or really Mike Gundy,
although I'd love to see Mike Gundy and TV. But
I mean, if they're gone, it's either because they retired
or they got fired. Two out of those three, huh.
I think that's an eight point five. I could see this.
Kurt Ferrence has been around a long time, Kyle Whittingham's
(35:03):
already named his head coach in waiting. Gandhi had a
terrible year last year. It's been very contentious between him
and Oklahoma State. Brass it's just a mess behind the scenes,
so not to mention the entire sport has changed, and
maybe these guys feel fed up with it after this year,
win or lose, So like there are dynamics in play
that don't make this as crazy as it sounds. I'm
(35:26):
gonna make that an eight and a half. Like none
of this prediction could be hit with nobody being fired.
That's how unbold that is, but it would be notable.
They're watching us in Valdosta, Georgia, More, Oklahoma, and Columbus, Ohio.
We appreciate you so much for that. Let's move along.
We got a few other things to talk about here
(35:46):
tonight on this jam packed show. Rare Wednesday show. I
don't know when the last time we had a Wednesday
show was we will pop the top on Azevia because
we need zero sugar refreshment. No matter what night of
the week it is, cream soda. Of course, cream soda
Wednesdays are back. You want to talk about sleepers, We'll
(36:07):
talk about sleepers. Franklin from Columbia, South Carolina. He said,
which teams outside of your top twenty could you anticipate
making a run at the playoff? Now, we did release
our Top twenty to varying degrees of fanfare last week,
and there it is. And if you're listening on podcasts,
I'm not going to read the whole Top twenty, but
I will tell you Auburn's not in it. So I
(36:29):
think if we have to eliminate all of the teams
that already listed, and you're saying, give me some sleepers
outside of those twenty, Auburn is certainly there. I don't
have Auburn in the top twenty, but the roster talent
is there. They've got an average of a top fifteen
recruiting class the last three cycles, really the last four cycles,
right Jesse, they've averaged a top fifteen class, and also
(36:51):
they've got a top ten portal class there. They are
probably a plus team on the lines of scrimmage. Keldric Falk,
like the edge player there, has got game wrecker ability.
And then on the other side, of course, we're asking
big questions about Jackson Arnold, but they're a sleeper because
if he doesn't pan out, it won't be a great
team this year. But if he does pan out, that
(37:13):
becomes the most underrated receiver room in the country because
no one's talking about him because you don't think Auburn
can throw the ball, and you got good reason to
think that from last year. Well, actually they pushed the
ball down the field fairly. Well, they just turned it
over too much. But they're very under the radar. Not
a lot's expected of Auburn, but if they hit it
with Jackson Arnold, they're capable of beating anyone on their schedule.
(37:36):
So that's a wild card sleeper type of team. I
think Nebraska is a qualifier for a sleeper. They're over
underwent total seven and a half, but last year they
were in the one hundreds in offensive points per game.
And now they have Dana Holgerson at OC. So Ryola
is there quarterback Holgerson there at OC. You got the
(37:56):
Matt rule year three things, so you just put I'll
pull all that in pop and then you mix it up.
They're sleepers because there's no guarantee if you pour it
out it tastes good, but it could be amazing. Like
Indiana this time last year, no one's talking about them,
but yet there they were. So this is gonna happen somewhere.
Maybe it does happen at Nebraska. They've got three top
(38:17):
twenty five classes baked into their roster. They've got a
top fifteen portal class and you know what, they're bottom
third in their conference in our strength of schedule metrics,
and they're big games. They got Michigan at home, they've
got USC at home. They go two Penn State late
in the year. But if you're taking care of business
at home, you can afford to drop a game on
(38:38):
the road. You know how many teams we let in
the playoff these days? If Rule had his way, everyone
would BM But nevertheless we got twelve of them. I
know it was a joke people. I know there was
some good old fashioned clickbaiting going on today in the
world of the out of context college football coach quote.
And I fell victim. I fell victim. But you know what,
(39:00):
I've talked to Matt Rule about the playoff. He really
does want more teams in there. I know, good and well.
He does great person. As Memhi used to always say,
casual people rarely say smart things, but smart people do
say casual things. And Matt Rule is a smart guy
who has a casual playoff take. Even though that thing
that circulated the internet today was taken out of context,
all right, Missouri Missouri anyone, Yes, I think so. I
(39:24):
was trying to make sure I had that written down.
All right, I want to do it. I guess I
can't do this exercise because I just said the name
of the team. But pretend we were fifteen seconds ago
and I have not said Missouri yet. All right, I
just want you to listen to this blind resume. If
I said, I have a team in front of me
that's gone twenty one to five in the last two years.
(39:47):
That's better than LSU and Tennessee. They've averaged a top
twenty five class the last four years. Okay, so you
know you got good talent and the roster. They just
landed a top ten portal class. They've got a top
five returning production over on defense at defense that was
pretty good last year. And then they just went and
(40:07):
got Bo Prabula, a quarterback from Penn State who came
in and led them in a come from behind win
on the road last year. Oh, by the way, this
team has the second easiest strength of schedule in the SEC.
If I told you all that, you'd say, give me
some playoff stock on that team, and then I would
turn the paper around and you'd see, Oh it's Missouri.
Never mind? Why never mind? Why also they play four
(40:31):
road games this year? Is that right? Yeah, it looks
that way. Both of them are back to back, But
why never mind, Let's give them a chance. In the
sixties they were singing give piece a chance. In twenty
twenty five, we just need to give Missouri a chance.
And lastly, Kansas State still plays this year. Do you
(40:51):
guys know that I had to check today. I made
a call up there, a good friend of the program, Kenny,
picks up the phone. I say, Kenny, are y'all playing
this year? You're gonna have a season? He confirmed they are.
They are planning on playing football this fall. And the
reason I speak like this is because is everyone just
forgotten about Kansas State. There's so many shiny toys in
(41:12):
the Big twelve. Look at Diona Colorado, look at Kenny
Dillingham at Arizona State. Have you seen the class that
Texas Tech has put together? I am describing this show.
This is not hypocrisy because I'm calling myself a little bit.
I haven't talked enough about Kansas State that makes them
a sleeper by the very definition. It's a wide open conference.
(41:35):
Avery Johnson is still there. And you know what, I
don't think Chris Clemban forgot how to coach football. So
they're probably right where they want to be, which is
out of the public spotlight. They've got a very workable
schedule as well, and if they win the conference, they're
in the playoffs, so of course they are a playoff sleeper,
and they open against US. They open against Iowa State
(41:59):
in IRA in week zero. Nervousness already starting to build
for that one. Quick Trip probably can't fuel you to Ireland.
Not a lot of drivable paths there. However, they can
at least get you to the coast, and they can
at least fuel you up with not only just good
old fashioned gasoline, but also cold brew on tap and
(42:22):
maybe a hot dog or a slice of pizza or
you know, some name brand candies of varying degrees or
some good old fashion Quick Trip brand. They've got you covered,
They've got us covered. They fuel us. I had to
talk with Quick Trip today about some catering details. Just
an amazing time and whence we live. The partners on
(42:43):
this show, Quick Trip in the others have come through
in such fantastic ways for us in our personal lives
as well as giving you a lot of free stuff
and making the show free. So we appreciate him, all right.
We got a really good question here, really good question,
(43:04):
A really good couple of questions about legacy, about looking
back down the road sometime probably fifty years from now.
So here's the first one. Ethan from Charlotte. He was asking,
where does Dabo rank all time if Clemson wins it
all this year Clemson wins the national championship, where does
(43:24):
Dabo rank all time? He is way up there for
me already, Ethan. So if Dabo Swinney never wins anything
else in terms of a championship, he's already up there
for me. But your question was what if he wins
another one? The last one he won was twenty eighteen.
He played for it in twenty fifteen. He I'm just
(43:48):
thinking to myself what this world would be like played
for it in twenty nineteen as well, So this world
would be crazy. And I don't know what Dabo would
do if he won a national title. I've we got
a kind of like a producer or a scriptwriter's mentality
in my head that says he should just walk off
into the sunset. He could coach for another thirty years,
though I don't know what he would do. However, if
(44:11):
Dabo won a national title this year and you remove
Nick Saban, I think he's in the conversation with any
other coach that's ever coached this game. I would think
that highly of him. I already think extremely highly of him.
He wouldn't have as many national titles as Bear Bryant,
(44:33):
for example, like Frank Leahy Woody Hayes. There are guys
who knumerically would have more national titles. But you know what,
think about what Dabo will have done. He will have
existed smack dab in the middle of number one on
that list's dynasty, and he will have gone toe to
(44:54):
toe with number one, Nick Saban, and beaten him twice
for the two national titles that he has, and then
if he wins a third one this year, he will
have done so in the face of everyone, including me,
who told him that his ways and his approach to
the new era of college football would not yield that
kind of fruit anymore. And if he does that, I
(45:18):
don't know that anyone has ever accomplished more aside from
Nick Saban. I don't know that anyone will have had
more impressive a resume because I think the Era Debo
will have done it. In part one because it was
during Saban's tenure, would be incredible, and then part two
because he will have not really wavered even as the
rest of the sport churned around him, and he won
a third one, I think it'd be one of the
(45:40):
most incredible resumes that you've ever seen. He is a
guy that's very prideful, and by that I don't mean
in the bad, toxic way. I just mean he takes
pride in the way he does his business and that program.
He takes pride in the fact that they operate differently.
Difference not always good. Different just for the sake of
(46:01):
being different is a fool's Errand they're different, but it's
not merely for the sake of being different. It's just
because they choose to do it a different way and
if it gets validated at least in a results oriented
manner with another national title. Oh now, Dabo's too good
a dude to do this, but he could go on
the Ultimate I Told You So Tour, including this show.
(46:23):
He could do that. I don't know that he would,
but I would imagine you would see a lot of tears.
You would see a lot of pregnant pauses before he
answers questions. You would have maybe the longest answers in
the history of a podium presentation of the national championship
(46:44):
game that's ever been done. He may take the microphone
like out of Rhese Davis's hand, say I got this
reeze and just hold it there and go just cut
a promo stone cold style. He could do that in
every reason to do it. He'd have every excuse to
do it. But his legacy for me is already secured.
I don't care if he wins another one or not.
(47:06):
But if he did win another one, you're talking about
going from the greatest of all time to do it
at Clemson, and you know, one of one of many
names in that goat conversation to one of a couple names,
and we'll see, because I had him ranked number one
coming out of spring, so we'll see. Then, Sorry, allergies.
(47:31):
Then if you get past that question, we got another one.
This is kind of about legacy too, but it's about yeah,
kind of just the way you look back on an
era of college football. So Ryan from Albany, New York,
sister city of Albany, Georgia. It's not real, he said,
How will this era of college football be remembered in
ten plus years? What a loaded question that we could
(47:54):
do an entire show on, but I'm gonna do like
seven minutes on it. I think we've had five decades
of change over the past ten years. Really we've had
five decades have changed over the past five years. But
I want you to think, so he said, ten years
from now. Let's go twenty years from now, just to
be safe. So it's twenty forty five and you're explaining
(48:17):
to a fifteen year old kid what this era was like.
You have had the college football playoff and then subsequent
playoff expansion. You've had the concept of nil where it
is now legal to pay players, and that overlapping with
virtually unrestricted portal movement, which led to complete free agency
(48:41):
twenty four to seven. In college football. We went from
a structured environment where everyone knew what an offer was
and what a scholarship entailed, and if you signed somewhere,
you're probably going to be there four years to we
don't know where you'll be an hour from now, and
it just happened like that. It wasn't over a span
of time. It happened just like that. We saw the
complete defanging of the NCAA. The NCAA has fractional power
(49:07):
related to what it used to have, fractional perceived authority
on the streets relative to what they used to have.
We had the whole realignment era, where we went from
being a regional sport to one where someone thought it
made perfect sense for UCLA to play Rutgers and conference games,
and all of it happened kind of overnight. If you
(49:30):
think about history this era, it's we're talking about the
span of seven or so years that all of this happened.
And I think it'll be remembered as the era where
a lot of people got fooled. I guess is the
best way to put this. What I mean by that is, first,
(49:51):
we don't know how it's gonna turn out. So let's say,
for argument's sake and to make us all feel better,
let's say in twenty forty five, everything's perfect and college
football looks exactly how we always wanted it to look.
So this thing we're going through right now, it's just
an ends to a meme. If that's the case. I
(50:12):
think we'll look back on this era of college football
and we'll see it not only as an era where
the playoff came about, and then as it was expanded
and you got NIL and you got the portal, and
the NCAA's gone by the wayside, and loss of territoriality
in college football, we've just got mega conferences. Past all that, though,
(50:32):
I think it'll be viewed as the era that fooled
a lot of people, because I don't know where you
fall in any one particular of those issues. But I
would imagine most, if not all, of this audience, me included,
has had something come along in the recent history of
college football that excited you that you've since been far
less excited about that you'd love a do over on.
(50:54):
Some of you wanted the playoff to expand, but maybe
you don't feel that way. Some of you heard the
concept of IL and the portal and you thought, oh,
this will be great and or maybe this will even
out the sport. Now you've seen no, really, it just
accumulated all the power in two conferences as opposed to
two or three teams. But you see, you couldn't have
(51:15):
all that change without those same people who allowed that
to happen, concentrating all the power. So you may look
at it and say, hey, in retrospect, I wish we
could go back if we lost all this, but we
got regionality back in college football, I'd be okay with that.
But you know what else has fooled people. It's happening
right now. A lot of people are fooled about the
sport right now because they're looking at the results. They're
(51:38):
looking at the attendance numbers, they're looking at ratings, and
a lot of people even today are mistaking explosive growth
in metrics like ratings as an assurance that nothing's wrong.
How many times have you heard people say that someone
over here is complaining about whatever, and this person over
(52:00):
here says, well, you're still watching, Well the ratings are
still high. They're fooled, they're full. That is not correlated
the way you think it is. Today's growth is indicative
of some stability and an incredible product a generation prior,
whose downstream results are being felt now. If you invested
(52:25):
soundly a generation ago, you're reaping the financial windfall right now.
But what if you have a meth habit that you've
become addicted to well, I'm rich. There must not be
anything wrong with this meth habit. There is. Your current
results have nothing to do with your current decision making.
It's more so your past decision making. Or if we
(52:47):
want to go the non drug use route, plant seeds
in your backyard tomorrow and water them and care for them.
They're not going to grow the next day, but they'll
eventually grow. And then if you stop tending to that garden,
they don't die overnight, but they slowly will. Would you
look at it and say, it doesn't really matter how
I manage this garden. Look, there's a crop there, sure is.
(53:09):
Where did it come from? How did that crop grow?
Based on the decisions you've made since you woke up
this morning or the decisions you made eight months ago.
Like this common sense in every other walk of life,
but in college football, for some reason, when someone gets
backed into a corner and they can't defend the indefensible
decision making or like thereof that's happening in the sport,
they just revert to, well, the ratings are high, Yeah
(53:32):
they are, Yeah, they sure are. I think another thing
about this era is we saw a legend retire so
you got the Nick Saban run and then it comes
to an end. I think when people I think in
the future, when people tell the story of Sabin's retirement,
it'll be one sentence and it'll be he got tired
(53:53):
of the direction college football was going and it was
too much for him. He tapped out. Some people will
say he had a system that was rigged to his
advantage and then he lost that edge and he bowed out.
Other people will say there was a college football that
he thrived in and he recognized and enjoyed, and then
that version of college football was done away with and
(54:14):
a new version popped up. He didn't want anything to
do with it, so he left. But either way, it's
the same thing, same result. Now, I wonder twenty years
from now, how you look back on that exit, and
who knows what kind of impact Saban's had on the
sport since then, and who knows period? Who knows what
fixes come? Do the fixes come? Where everything's in court
(54:36):
right now? This sport is secondarily played on football fields
right now, it's primarily played in the courtroom. It's pathetic,
but that's where we are in college football right now.
And so how what's the story of how it got fixed,
because by twenty forty five, something's happened. What's the story
like by twenty forty five? Inquiring minds want to know.
(54:57):
FanDuel has no odds on that, but they do have
odds on everything else. As I told you earlier in
the show, you may want to go bet on Ohio
State Michigan. You can do that right now. Did you
know that Ohio State minus five and a half? You
can bet it right now. We check before the show.
You can bet it right now. You can go over
there and just take a look. You may be thinking
to yourself, well, I don't really bet to which I say,
(55:18):
good for you. That's fine. But you may be thinking, however,
if they've got lines posted on a bunch of games,
I'm at least curious about what they are. Feel free
to go peruse at your a leisure. They're up there
right now. You want to know about that Heisman odds
board behind arch who's number two, three, four, five and six.
It's right there right now. FanDuel exclusive odds provider of
(55:38):
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call one eight seven seven eight Hope, n Y. Or
text h op E n Y in New York. Last question,
you won't find this anywhere on the channel as an
individual video, so you better be watching the live show
(56:48):
for this one. I told you guys earlier today. I
was answering questions on the show tonight, so Tim asked
four of them. As you know, I'm getting married tomorrow.
So Tim said, Number one, for your wedding, will you
and the wife be consuming zvia from your child life supremacy? Possibly?
It's a great idea, frankly, one I had not thought of,
(57:10):
but it has since been taken under advisement. Number two
over under how many times immunity is mentioned in your vowels?
Two and a half combined, I think is a fair
number there. Number three can these be parlayed? Never? And
number four will you be power rating those on the
guest list? And now he did not say rank, right,
(57:30):
he said power rate those on the guest list. I
have given specific instructions to keep this guest list as
classified as can be, because it's very eclectic. We've got management,
we've got public figures, we've got family, we've got current
(57:52):
players and coaches, and we've got a very very healthy
and unique mixture of humanity that's going to come together.
And for obvious reasons, I can't have that manifest getting out.
It's not a commercial flight. Okay, it is not the
federal government's right to know who's attending this. However, if
(58:13):
you did know, it would be eyebrow raising. You just
think about, ooh, this person and this person if they interact,
what does that look like? Well, I'll tell you I
probably won't because my lips are stealed on it. But
if you find someone who's hard up for cash enough
and you pay them thirty dollars to appear on your
podcast and talk about it, they'll probably be willing to. Yeah,
(58:34):
there's some ethically sketchy people who are going to attend
this thing, and I can give you names of a
few of them. So if you really want those details,
you could probably get it out of the right person.
But just not me. Not me, It's not the classy
thing to do. But I do appreciate you guys showing
up on a Wednesday night or a Thursday morning if
you're listening to the podcast, because the schedule's just been
in a blender this week. But with good reason. I
(58:58):
think it's much better now than if I were to
tell you, hey, no show this Thursday, week four because
I've got a fall wedding to have and it's mind
that would be terrible. You would boycott the show, and
I would lead the boycott. So we'll be back Sunday night,
same time as usual. I appreciate you guys again. All
(59:18):
the support, I really don't mean that. I appreciate that.
For director Colin, for a producer Jesse, I'm Josh Pate.
Take care, have a great rest of your week, and
God bless. Sign up for FanDuel at FanDuel dot com
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