SEC Win-Loss Record Predictions + 10 Reasons This Season Will Be WILD

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:13):
You're ready for the season. Yeah, I'm ready for the season.
Everyone's ready for the season. I don't quite think America,
the college football public is ready for what's coming Saturday. Now.
A lot of times when people talk that way, something
bad's common. I hold in my hand top secret, classified
information that I'm about to share with you publicly. That
could be the best news you've heard in months. I

(00:34):
know it's the best news I've heard in months. I
hold in my hand an official forecast, because as of now,
it is forecast to be seventy eight degrees in Fate
of Arkansas this Saturday. Kickoff Columbus, Ohio, where I'm going
to be Low's possibly in the upper forties Saturday morning,
we're topping out in the mid seventies. Atlanta barely gets
into the eighties. Saturday, Clemson, South Carolina. Remember how that

(00:58):
was going to be sweltering hot LSU Clemson on the road.
Drink the pickle juice, cramps left and right. Yeah, low eighties,
very tolerable humidity. We have never in the history of
this sport been more back than we are this week.
We're jam packed, We're high at top. As you can tell,
a changing downtown Nashville, Tennessee, because it feels like football

(01:22):
season outside, and we're going to talk about that at
every angle imaginable tonight. This season is going to be incredible.
There's no need to be a negative. Everyone's undefeated except
for Kansas State, except for Fresno State, but largely you
haven't even played yet. It's gonna be incredible season. I'm
gonna prove it to you in just a couple of moments.
I am also going to, in the interest of full disclosure,

(01:44):
give you my, not the Model, my win loss record
predictions for not one, not two, not three, but every
single team in the SEC tonight. It won't take like
five hours. It doesn't. It doesn't. It doesn't behoove us
to do a show like that, but we're going to
do game predictions tonight. Normally that's a Tuesday night thing,
but since it's week one, we really don't how much

(02:06):
to react to from yesterday. We're gonna go ahead and
get Texas, Ohio State on the record tonight. Tell you
what the Model thinks, I'll tell you what I think.
I'll give you a prediction. We'll give you a full breakdown.
Auburn Baylor's a Friday night game. So we're gonna go
ahead and do that one too, and we do it
once a year normally when everyone's rolling back in state
starts classes tomorrow. Actually Bradley getting bed early tonight. And so,

(02:27):
what I like to do every year, knowing that we
have like hundreds of thousands of new listeners and viewers
from this time last year, maybe millions, who knows, is
I like to have orientation not at the beginning of
the show, but at the ending of the show. So
if you're new around here, you wonder, why does he
do that? Why does he say that? What does that mean?

(02:48):
Could be to a number of things that you've seen
or heard on the show. It'll all make sense at
the end of tonight's show. It's a good refresher course
for those of you who have been around those of
you who are new. It's mandatory. You can't turn the
show off. You're not allowed to. And if you're trying
to recruit a friend or a family member to the show,
it's a it's a good explainer to put in front

(03:09):
of them. We're loaded tonight. That's a heavy stack of papers.
We're loaded. They're watching us in Baton Rouge Louisiana, San Antonio, Texas,
Wesley Chapel, Florida, Decatur, Alabama. Just down the road. Good
train watching to be had there. Indicator guys, paper Pop,
this rare opening show, paper Pop. It's all happening this week. Okay,
it's never been more important for you to be following

(03:30):
on the socials at Josh Pate CFB. You know what's
back this week Ram and it'll express in fact, that'll
happen on this show. You don't even have to be following,
but you know where you do need to be following.
You do need to be following on Instagram because live
Friday night at a non disclosed location in Columbus, Ohio.
It's going to be a hotel room. We will do
Friday night lines. That's back. The Fall tours back, which

(03:52):
means behind the scenes access is back, Like who knows
what Ryan Day's gonna let us do up there this weekend.
But the only way you'll see it's not on the
show close. That'll be Sunday. It'll be over by then.
You got to be following that Instagram story in the
Fall is the place to be. I'm telling you, TikTok's
taking off too. But Instagram story. When I'm on the road,
I'm on the sidelines at these games on Saturday, you

(04:12):
just get. You get a view that I can't give you.
No one else is really going to give you because
they don't care about you like we do at Josh
pat CFB. Okay, that is a very hefty open to
the show. I want to tell you something as we
begin tonight, there's no reason for you to be upset.
There will be wailing, there will be gnashing of teeth
at some point for most of you this year, but
not now, not tonight, Bradley, here's a good endpoint. College

(04:37):
football season's here. Okay. It's a time to be happy.
It's a time of rebirth. It's a time of optimism,
of promise, of potential and will dreams get shattered along
the way, Sure most of them will, But that's not
what God created late August for That's what God created
Halloween and beyond for your dreams can be tru crushed

(04:57):
by then. But I think we've got an amazing in
college football season coming up, and I'm going to give
you some reasons why you can come up with your own.
The first thing I'm thinking about is I've got ten
of them. We have never had this many contenders for
a national championship that I can remember in my lifetime.

(05:17):
We have come to learn that the national championship picture
is normally three teams, five teams, seven teams. There are
nine teams at plus fifteen hundred or better odds to
win this whole thing. And Texas, A and M's not
even included in that. Miami's not even included in that.
Florida is not even included in that. And the reason
I list those teams is because those are teams where
if they were to get in the playoff, could make

(05:39):
a lot of noise calls. They do have the minimum
baseline talent roster, in fact well above the minimum baseline.
But just think about how wide open it is this time.
Last year, Ohio State, Georgia, like those were the betting favorites.
Both of them lost two games in the regular season,
so they both made the playoff. Ohio State won the
whole thing, But even last year it was very tumultuous.

(06:01):
You guys know how rarely I use that word. Think
about this year and think about how much could go right,
especially if we don't have elite teams that's one of
the big questions that we have for early in the year.
I'll tell you another thing that I think is going
to make this season amazing. The big key that I
have long spoken about in this sport has been the
state of Florida and the big programs in the state

(06:23):
of Florida not taking care of business for a prolonged
period of time meant that the in state talent didn't
stay home for a prolonged period of time, which led
to Alabama's entire defensive backfield being made up of Florida
players when they won the title in twenty twenty. You
just watched that, and that's insane. That shouldn't happen. Why

(06:43):
does it happen. Well, those players aren't staying home calls,
their teams aren't winning. So now we have fest forwarded
five years. Florida State was great two years ago, then
they were terrible, and so we got to wait and
we got to find out what will they be this year.
Billy Napier, I think's got the best team that he's
had at Florida. I think very highly of them. We're
gonna predict them later in the show. I'll tell you

(07:04):
which win loss record I think they'll have Miami under
Mario Christobaal still knocking on the door of playoff contention,
but not there yet. They haven't kicked the door down yet.
Had cam Ward last year, no defense got Carson Beck
this year. Do they have a good enough defense replace
their entire secondary? Got a new defensive coordinator. They think
it may be a low key strength. What do we think.

(07:26):
We're kind of up in the air right now. We
got to wait and watch them play Notre Dame standalone
game Sunday night, Week one. Again. If this doesn't get
your heart race in a little bit, I don't know
why you're watching the show. Probably more of a soccer fan,
probably more of a basketball fan, and you just happen
to stumble upon it. But man, if you love college football,
think about the potential just in the state of Florida.

(07:48):
And that's not to mention our buddy Alex Goldish down
at USF. Could they make some noise they play Boise
to start the season. You see f Scott Frost back home.
It's like we just erased that entire Nebraska chapter and
he's back home making comments left and right about whether
he should have ever left or not. So I've got that.
I've got Brian Kelly, who is not a coach in

(08:10):
the state of Florida. Brian Kelly is the LSU head coach. Though.
What excites me about twenty twenty five is we get
to find out one way or the other about Brian Kelly.
I don't always talk in such definitive terms because it's
fortune cookie type stuff. Normally there are shades of gray
to every season. But I do think it's fair to
say someone's going to be proven right about Brian Kelly.

(08:32):
Now there's one group I've probably found myself in this
group that thinks Brian Kelly's a very good head coach.
That thinks Brian Kelly's probably gotten some unjust criticism and
in other cases maybe not criticized enough. So it's very compartmentalized.
But who thinks all in all he's the real deal.
Then there's another group that thinks he's a total and
abject fraud and they claim they knew it the day

(08:52):
he faked that accent and he's never really come and
rounded into form and turned LSU into a national title contender. Well, well,
those two worldviews they can't coexist. So one of them's
got to be right, and one of them's got to
be wrong. Now, you don't find that out in the
guy's first season. You really don't find it out in
a second season. When you get third season, when you

(09:13):
get fourth season, you get to a point where you're
gonna find out. So Brian Kelly's now had time to
maybe make not the best of hires when he started
out there, and maybe make not the best of personnel
decisions when he first started it out there, and then
he's had time to reap the consequences of it, the
Jaden Daniels year where defense cost him a shot at

(09:34):
a national title, and then he's had a year to
course correct and that organization's course corrected, and they hired
really good defensively, and they've got really good front office personnel.
May have the best GM in the country for all
we know. And now there's another season. Okay, with all
that happening, this is really the show me season. They

(09:55):
made a lot of good moves defensively in the portal,
They've talked a lot about being more offensively. They've got
a returning quarterback, it's their guy. So what if they
go eleven and one. What if they're in Atlanta. Well
there's your answer. What if they go seven and five? Well,
also there's your answer. So we get to find out
one way or the other. About Brian Kelly. I feel

(10:16):
like last year, speaking of Brian Kelly, the team that
he left to go to LSU was Notre Dame. I
feel like last year Notre Dame announced their arrival back
on the national championship stage. And it's fun unless you're,
you know, a Notre Dame hater, it's fun that Notre
Dame's back. I was never a believer college football needed

(10:37):
Notre Dame because I'm not a believer. College football needs
needs any team to be great. College football is great,
and if you want to be a part of it,
that's wonderful. It does help. I think it does make
it better if Notre Dame is in it, because no
one's indifferent on Notre Dame. Either love him or you
hate him. So Notre Dame's back, and by back, I

(10:59):
don't just mean a good, solid team. They played for
a national title last year. They're squarely in the mix
of that conversation again this year, I feel like the
sport has kind of come back to them a little
bit as opposed to five years ago when the talk
amongst many myself included was a fear that the game
had passed Notre Dame by and by that, I don't
know what everyone else meant. What I meant is I'm

(11:19):
just not sure the talent profile of recruiting classes that
you can get at Notre Dame is going to compete
with the likes of at the time Bama, Stillbama at
the time and still now Georgia at the time, still
now Ohio State. Well, you know, they went up against
Ohio State last year and they lost, but they beat Georgia,
you know they So they're competitive now. But here's the
follow up. The follow up is number one, they've got

(11:40):
to deliver a follow up campaign to last year. Number
two at Miami, Texas A and m at Arkansas, Boise,
NC State, and USC They play all of those teams
by October eighteenth, and they're breaking in a brand new quarterback.
So they are back, but they've got challenges. Now. Half

(12:02):
the internet will tell you Notre Dame plays a cupcake schedule.
The other half has looked at their schedule, so that's
not easy. People will look at going to Arkansas like
that's easy. It may be easier in November if it's
come off the rails for him. Arkansas is still going
to be all in when Notre Dame goes there. And
also that's kind of a one game season for Arkansas,
so even if they are bad elsewhere, they could pop

(12:23):
one on you. My point there is I'm very interested
in watching that. I mean, Al Golden won the Broyls
Award last year and he's off to the NFL and Jesse.
I don't even feel like we've talked about that on
our show enough, so let's find out. I also think
it's a referendum season for two other guys, and this
is going to be really fun to watch because neither

(12:45):
of them have any room to complain. The entire runway
is built exactly how they would have it built. It
is a referendum season for James Franklin at Penn State.
It's a referendum season for dabos Winny at Clemson. Both
of them have the quarterbacks that they have recruited and
developed in house and built towards this year, and Drew
Aller and k Klubnick, both of them have very manageable schedules.

(13:09):
Last year, they had a lot of the same pieces
that they'll have this year, and they weren't quite good enough,
but they were both playoff teams, So the question becomes
how much did they improve or is just a little
bit better version of what they were last year good enough?
Is Clemson's depth good enough? Is Penn State's wide receiver

(13:31):
room filled with those transfers good enough? Because there is
one path where one or both of them are in
the final four national championship game, maybe one of them
wins it, And I mean, what a story that is,
no matter what you're talking about, one of the bigger
stories in the last couple of decades in college football.
If either one of them wins it. For different reasons,
one of them is thought to not be able to
do it period, the other one is thought to have

(13:53):
the game having passed in by and so it would
be a gigantic I told you so by Deboswiney. It'd
be I told you I could From James Franklin. There
is another world that we at least have to acknowledge
could exist, and that is they're just okay. There's just
another version, like a copy and paste of last year,
which probably is good enough for Penn State to who

(14:14):
knows go to the Big Ten title game but not
win it. Clemson may be good enough to win the
ACC but nothing much more than that. And you can't
call that a failure of a season, but you kind
of can call it a failure of a season. Ohio
State is returning production in the eighties, Texas is returning
production in the eighties, and yet both of them are

(14:35):
expected to compete for a national title this year just
cause that is the talent roster that is the makeup
of those places. Clemson and Penn State will not be
viewed that way this time next year. I don't think
they'll be viewed that way. So it is very much
more of a window type opportunity for them than maybe
still some of the big boys that are there every

(14:56):
single year. I'm not done. I contendu you it is
going to be this year as it is every year
because the Big twelve is wide open. You could call
your aunt, who has said, Jimmy, you're a big college
football fan, right, yes, Aunt, Trish, get me into college football.
I don't even want to pull for a team. Just
just sell me on I watch soap operas every day, right,

(15:18):
I haven't worked in years. Just sell me on the storylines. Okay,
the Big Twelve, that's what you tell your aunt, the
Big Twelve. It could be Iowa State. They were just
victorious halfway around the world. Got home at noon today,
I'm told, per reputable sources from Dublin, Ireland after they

(15:40):
beat Kansas State. Kansas State's now behind the eight ball already,
but they were favored to win the conference going into yesterday.
You got Texas Tech with the ultimate talent roster experience,
the ultimate portal experiment. You've got Arizona State looking to
not defend the title because they're not defending anything. They're
looking to repeat as a conference champ for the first

(16:00):
time out there. I think no one's done it in
like half a decade. Baylor's sneaking around. They open with Auburn,
which is not a conference game, but we get to
find out how improved Dave Randa's bunch is. Utah is
the one that worries me the most because I don't
feel like I've talked enough about Utah, and I just
feel like Kyle Winningham's selling on him after one year
is very ignorant and very foolish. Jesse's not playing quarterback

(16:22):
for him, anymore, got to here from New Mexico, so
expect an upgrade there if I know Jesse like I
think I do, And then I'm watching Kansas yesterday and
the same stuff we had heard out of fall camp.
Jalen Daniels is healthy, well, obviously he's healthy. Now he
needs to be healthy for eleven more of them, but
if he is, they could be a surprise contender. Point being,

(16:42):
there should be no surprise contender in the Big Twelve.
Anyone who gets surprised by the Big Twelve being up
in the air does not really know the Big Twelve
like we do. What about Ohio State? What about Ryan Day?
We'll see them this weekend. We're going to be on
the road there Texas and Ohio State. Have you ever
thought to yourself, well, the head coach man, he just

(17:02):
won the national championship, but there's a lot of pressure
on him this year. No one ever says that. But
yet it's kind of the case with Ryan Day. It's
not the case that he needs to win another national title. No,
there's this whole other season that's baked into Ohio State's
world that most of you don't worry about, even though
you guys play rivalry games. No one has the dynamic

(17:25):
in their life right now that Ryan Day and Ohio
State do. As it relates to Michigan. Even coming off
a national championship last year, there's a yeah, but there's
not an asterisk next to the validity of the title.
There's not that there's an asterisk next to it in
the sense that everyone congratulates you and then says, gotta
beat Michigan, though, And they're not smiling when you chuck

(17:45):
a lot them. They're just dead serious. They should be.
You gotta beat Michigan though We're going on half a decade,
this is entering a fifth year now. You can't lose
to them. They got Bryce Underwood up there, I got
folks willing to spend, and the NCAA cloud is in
the rear view mirror now. So all the message board
fodder has to rid itself of that and refocus on

(18:09):
what we should be focused on, which is the game
on the field. The game on the field, it's a
long way away, it's several months away, but everything builds
to that, you know, because Ohio State correct me if
I'm wrong, Jesse. I think they've been favored in like
every one of these games the past four years and
they're zero to four, so it won't matter. Ohio State
could beat Texas by twenty this Saturday, and they go

(18:31):
in Washington and win, and they could go and wrote
Illinois and win beat Penn State. It doesn't matter. If
the futures mark it over at FanDuel has Ohio State
minus twenty Ohio State minus twenty two. That's what they
had last year they got beat. So we will not
matter until the dust settles. Four full quarters have been
played at least, and there's a bigger number on that
scoreboard for the Scarleton Grade than there is for the

(18:54):
Maze and Blue. That is a very weird kind of
pressure that only exists in college football. I love it
because I don't have to worry about it. I just
get to talk about it. What about a couple of
brands You may have heard of, USC and Nebraska. Could
we see a rebirth of one or both of them
this year. It's been a long time, long time since

(19:18):
we talked about conference championship pictures slash playoff pictures, and
we got to talk about USC and we got to
talk about Nebraska. And this year they're in the same conference.
Of course, now this year, could we be talking about
one or both. Well, that's up to them because the
second layer, the third layer maybe of the Big ten's

(19:41):
been very much removed from that conference championship conversation. But
who knows, Maybe they close the gap. Maybe there's a
lot more competitive depth to the Big Ten. Maybe they
have a lot to say about it. What's the line
of scrimmage situation at USC what's the consistency and performance
defensively like at USC or did to scale up last year?

(20:01):
Do they scale up this year to where they could
hang twenty four sometimes and win games. That'd be a
whole new day. Or remember Lincoln Riley talked about it
last year going into last year. We've rehired on the
defensive side. It's a whole new day around here. I
went out there this spring. They fully believe it. Man,
they believe they got a secret the rest of the
world's gonna find out about. I can't wait. I hope

(20:22):
it's reality. I hope Nebraska being legit is reality. Hey,
I picked them to go to the playoff and I
got mocked, notably as the biggest Nebraska backer in the
city of Nashville, Tennessee. At least and maybe beyond. I'm
being mocked. Matt Rules out there starting to podcast. My
vision for December, My vision for the postseason is I

(20:47):
look like a genius. He has me on as a
guest and we celebrate together. Got to make it happen first.
How great would that be? Though, again, not for people
who hate Nebraska, but just indifferent observers out there, Many
of hoopst will tell you Nebraska's time to be at
the head table has come and gone. Well, they were

(21:08):
wrong about Notre Dame. Could they be wrong about Nebraska? Man?
What about Bama and Georgia? Last year Georgia won the league?
Bama lost three games and it was crisis mode in
Tuscaloosa and it was ah, okay, yeah, but we could
look a whole lot better mode in Athens, which again
just speaks to how dominant that program is. That ten

(21:29):
and two in an SEC championship was kind of viewed
as a had a little transition year. It could have
been better, It could have been better, It could have
been a whole lot worse though, or might not that
be the case? Might the floor be so high under
Kirby Smart that's about as bad as you can do.
I think that's a little unfair and unrealistic, but maybe
so we get Kaitlyn de Borr in year two, folks

(21:50):
like me got sky high expectations for him. I've seen, frankly,
I've seen an uncomfortable amount of people start to get
behind Alabama. Now. I don't like that. I would much
rather be on an island, especially with these bigger brand names,
because it gets talked about a lot. But whatever, they're
going to have to be competitively mature enough to handle
it around there. But you know, there's an expectation, I

(22:12):
would say, a fairly widely held expectation that last year
people are willing to accept as this transitional sort of year.
The more and more the vibe gets out, and the
more and more you realize, I have some unique situations,
unique circumstances last year, So they'll get it righted this year.
That'll be a Kailen Debor team whatever, Kaylen de Bor's
Alabama's going to be. That's what we'll get this year. Well,

(22:35):
if they go ten and two, that's great. Where are
they go eight and four? Where do they go? Seven
and five? Crisis open up the one nine hundred hotline
in Tuscaloosa. So that's fun to watch if you're not
in the fish bowl, that's really fun to watch at Georgia.
I mean, this is to me the number one program
in America, And you know what, if that's the case,

(22:56):
you could realistically have a down year that still involves
a conference title win, and you could be right back
to running the ball effectively, if not dominantly, this year.
You could be right back to top ten, top fifteen
across the board defensive metrics this year, and you could
have in the aggregate, improved what's been a net weakness
for you, the wide receiver room, and you'd go win

(23:18):
the conference title, national title this year. Or you could
go eight and four, nine and three yourself and have
everyone start to look at twenty twenty four not as
a blip but as the beginning of a trend. Now,
it'd be very, very difficult for me to imagine a
Kirby Smart program like trending down. No one's immune from that. Though.

(23:40):
That's fun to watch, that's why we watch it. And
the state of Texas could be the story of college
football season. Although I have offered up like five or
six different potential stories of college football season so Texas
is expected to compete for a national title. We think
Texas A and M is the most underrated team in
the SEC in the odds market, so we think they're

(24:01):
both playoff contenders. Texas Tech absolutely is the story of
the Big twelve and one of the stories of the
entire country. Baylor very sneaky Big twelve team TCU also
very sneaky Big twelve team. Houston year two under Willie Fritz,
approximately nobody talking about them, and yet Connor Wigman's down

(24:21):
there yep, yep, still playing Power four quarterback. Related note,
Houston is in the Big twelve. Now, you got to
do your flash card exercise as kids, You got to
refamiliarize yourself with your new landscape of college football. And
there's Rice, who can they make loose to food this year?

(24:41):
Those are some of the reasons I'm excited. Those are
not exhaustive reasons. Those are just some of the reasons
that I'm excited. I think it's going to be an
incredible year. When you have a picture at the top
of the board this compacted. When you have number nine
through forty in my Power ratings separated by eleven point,
you're setting yourself up for not a car wreck because

(25:05):
that sounds terrible, but the best form of bumper cars
that you could ever play. But putting school logos on
each one of the cars. That's the That's the entire
landscape this year. I can't wait for it. Oh, I
can't wait for it. We're just getting started tonight. This
show's jam packed, proudly fueled by Quick Trip. I have
had a number of conversations lately with people who are

(25:29):
taking all form of pictures and Quick Trip parking lots.
Not sure what the plural of parking lots could be
other than parking lots. They may be able to help
us on that. It warms the heart, it warms the soul,
now you need to know. I forward most of those
over to QTJ Quick Trip Joe, who is our contact
at the Quick Trip world at headquarters out there in Oklahoma.

(25:51):
They love it. They love it. Imagine a Monday morning
meeting at quick Trip headquarters at nine am. Everyone walks in,
and then at nine oh two am people are just
looking at cel phone pictures of you guys in their
parking lots, cold brew on tap inside, all kind of
snacks depending on breakfast could be breakfast depending on lunch.
Could be lunch. Maybe you're a long haul trucker in
the middle of the night, could be anything and everything.

(26:13):
We appreciate them. They are fueling the fall tour, the
fall don't lie tours, hitting the road this Saturday. Actually,
can't wait. Appreciate quick trip. This will be controversial, There's
no way around this. I try and avoid controversy as
much as I can. Pretty clean cut around here, you know,

(26:33):
I mean, look at the whiteness in this T shirt.
It's Christine. But we're about to get it dirty. About
to get it dirty, all right, here we go, Bradley.
If anyone who is watching live wonders, I'm just giving
Bradley qes. So when he goes back and cuts up
the show afterwards, he doesn't include that foolishness. It's time

(26:55):
to predict wins and losses for SEC teams this year.
I need to stress this is not the model. This
is not the model. I have shirked responsibility over onto
the model. I have deflected blame onto the model. But
it's time for me to step up, be an adult,
take some responsibility and say let's close the computer. I
need to keep it open because I got to see
my feedback screen. But let's close the computer figuratively and

(27:18):
let's take a personal stand. No more ride in the fence.
I'm just repeating what all the haters have told me
all of August. So this is not the model. This
is me, This is my this right here, that's my gut.
I'm calling my shots. There are only three teams from
all of last year that had losing records in the SEC,
and yet it was viewed as a down year for

(27:39):
the SEC because there were really no elite teams down
there either down there, I'm in Nashville, down here, and
so only one to eleven win season in the entire conference.
Last year Georgia was ten and two and they won
the league. What kind of year are we going to
have this year? I have a fundamental belief out the

(28:00):
SEC this year, and that is it's Nashville skyline protocol.
What I mean, if any of you who have been
in Nashville, you know exactly what I'm talking about. We're
high top downtown Nashville, Tennessee, roughly roughly maybe on the outskirts. Now.
There are no one hundred foot mega skyscrapers in Nashville,
but there are a lot of sort of similar height,
tall buildings, and it could be the AT and T building,

(28:24):
the Batman building stands out to you, maybe the Pinnacle
building stands out. Maybe the Bridge known building stands out.
Maybe our studio stands out. But there's no one up
until they open this paramount tower in a couple of
years that stands out above and beyond. I think that's
the SEC again this year. It's just a conglomeration of tall,
good looking buildings, very picturesque conference skyline. There's no one

(28:47):
high rise, there's no like one world trade that's above
and beyond everything else. And so the difference in nine
and three and seven and five in this conference this
year is negligible. It's one of the rare four syllable
words that I felt the need to use on the
show tonight. But it will be impossible to spot the
difference in nine to three and seven and five in August.
It's impossible. Coaches can't see it much less we the

(29:09):
people of college football is Alex listen. It's a good
T shirt idea. Let me give you an example. Last year,
So LS, you finished eight and four last year, If
you were sitting in August and you were predicting them
to go eight and four, or maybe someone predicting six
and six. I think about what the difference there is.
LSU did not even lead Ole Miss in regulation and

(29:32):
beat them. That's a win. They had that phantom no
call up at South Carolina where also Sellers went down
for portion of the game. They won. That one had
to come from behind, they nutted up, they won the game.
Congrats to them. Could you possibly see the difference like
plus or minus in those games from August? Of course
you can't point being they're the same team. Just bounces

(29:55):
go their way, bounces don't go their way against USC.
So my point in revealing what we're about to reveal is,
I think we got to recalibrate our mind for what
the new nine and three. I think nine and three
is the new ten and two. And I think that
there are some seven and fives in this conference this
year that could realistically say we had an okay year

(30:17):
and that used to not be the case. All Right,
here we go. I'm nervous. I don't like it, but
we gotta do it. Who do we go with? First? Up? Jesse,
remind me of this A and M Okay, Yeah, that's right,
I have my paper turnaround Texas A and M overtfanduel.
The over underwin total is seven and a half. This
is the most underpriced team in this entire conference. To me,

(30:39):
they will go over seven and a half. But this
is not over under win total. This is exactly what
the record's going to be. I love the offensive identity
of this team. We have them as the number nine.
Strength of schedule and the SEC and our internal metrics.
The Tier two matchups, as we define them, will decide
Texas A and M season. They have three of them.
They play Missouri on on the road, they play Auburn

(31:02):
at home, they play South Carolina at home. The way
that that group of games goes, I think we'll determine
this season. And we've got them doing very well in
those games. We've got the game at Texas at the
end of the year having SEC championship implications on it
and playoff implications on it. Yet again, I've got Texas
A and M going nine to three this year. We

(31:24):
view them as a bona fide college football playoff contender.
I feel like we should have drum roll next up,
random order here, let's do Georgia next. I'm spinning a wheel.
You just have to imagine me spinning the wheel. Here.
George's over underwent total is nine and a half. I
think home field advantage is as important for Georgia as

(31:45):
any team in this conference. This year EA Sports comes
out with their home field advantage ratings. We do all
our stadium ratings. Well, here's where it really matters. It
really matters when Ole Miss comes into your building. Can
they operate on third down? How's ty Simpson? How does
arch Manning? How do they feel playing in Sandford Stadium
on third down? That's where the home crowd at Georgia

(32:06):
this year could fundamentally impact the season because they do
play a tough schedule, but they they get those dudes
at home, and then they go to Tennessee. But they
go to Tennessee early in the year, they do go
to Auburn. Those teams are in varying states of flux.
Here is my mild concern with Georgia. I do believe
that there'll be a rebound identity wise. I do believe
they'll be able to run the ball better this year.

(32:28):
Is there still going to be a little bit of
inconsistency on that offensive line with so much unproven across
the front. They trust them, they've developed them, and this
program deserves benefit of the doubt. And I don't disagree
with that, but I've got that as a mild concern.
I think the wide receiver room could be low key
one of the best in the country if it's allowed

(32:49):
to be gun or Stockton. Of course, at quarterback, everyone's
asking questions about him. I think his performance works downstream
of the offensive line and the ground game being there,
and the defense front being up a notch or down
a notch. There are enough collective concerns with that defensive
and offensive front. Then I'm not willing to go double
digit wins on Georgia. I'm going nine and three on Georgia.

(33:12):
I've got him as a playoff team, but I don't
have them winning the conference. So I got Georgia at
nine and three. Next up, you know, let's be scientific.
Give me Auburn, Jesse, all right? Next up is Auburn
is Again, this is as high level of production as
you will ever see. Auburn is one of the big
wildcard teams in the SEC, if not the country. This year.

(33:33):
They're over underwin total at FanDuel is seven and a half.
We've got him with the number thirteen strength of schedule
in the SEC. Okay, having said that, they got four
losable games in the first half of the year, and
one of them is on the road in Week one
at Baylor. And look, I don't expect miracles with Jackson Arnold.

(33:57):
I don't expect miracles with Jackson Arnold, and that means
means I don't expect him to have had the problems
he had last year at Oklahoma. But just like magically,
we turn the page and what a fairy tale, disneyesque
story this is. No, They're gonna be ups and downs.
In the best of cases for Auburn, They're gonna be
up and downs. They got the thirteenth strength of schedule

(34:17):
in the SEC. I told you they got four losable
games in the first half. If quarterback play allows the
talent profile of that team to play to its potential,
then Auburn could surprise a lot of people. Because I
am not as high on Auburn as I definitely would be.
If you gave me that promise, I'm not sold it'll
be there. I'm not sold that the quarterback play will

(34:41):
allow the potential of the talent profile of this team
to be unlocked. What I mean by that is if
Jackson Arnold's good, that offensive line is really good, that
offensive line is really underrated nationally, that wide receiver room
is criminally underrated nationally. But it's cause people don't think
that they're gonna matter. I think they're gonna matter, but
I'm st still not sold to the point where I'm

(35:02):
willing to go ooh, watch out Auburn dark horse playoff contender.
I've got Auburn slotted at seven and five right now,
but I am freely admitting they are one of the
two teams in the conference that I'm most exposed on
because they're one of the two teams with the highest
variance and potential outcome high end to low end. Let's go.

(35:24):
Let's go Florida Gators next. We all know the story
here if you've been watching this show. Florida's over underwent
total is seven and a half this year. We got
him playing the toughest strength of schedule in the SEC
and the toughest strength of schedule in America, and I
maybe foolishly but boldly am in on them anyway. I've
got him as a playoff team, So Obviously I believe

(35:46):
in DJ Lagway, but more so than saying that generically,
more so than saying, boy, look at what he does
on broken plays. It is deep ball accuracy paired with
this receiver room that I really trust, paired with that
offensive line. And it also speaking of that offensive line
gives me great comfort to know that if the passing
game is not clicking, if it starts out slow any

(36:10):
given Saturday, they've got that offensive line to fall back on.
They got a really really high level ground game, multifaceted
ground game, including the quarterback there to fall back on.
I think we're pairing that with a top twenty style
defense and a dynamic like athletic, lengthy defense at Florida,
and I think the whole team's dynamic enough to where

(36:31):
they can win so many different ways. I've got the
Florida Gators breaking through this year, a year after Napier
was sold down the river and then they didn't fire him,
just probably because they couldn't afford to do it. Boom
comeback story of the year. Florida finishes nine and three.
They are in the College Football Playoff. I need a fan.
Myself could go bad for me. We're not even halfway done.

(36:55):
We got to continue. Okay, Texas is next up, because
that's the tea that's in front of me right now.
Texas Longhorns over underwin total at FanDuel nine and a half.
Sark told us in the spring, we have built towards
this year. Yes, Arch is a first year starter, but
he's our guy, and we've developed him, and we recruited him,

(37:15):
and we have viewed the future of this program with
his face at quarterback, and we viewed the future of
this line of scrimmage as being the biggest in the
country athletically biggest in the country. And they've achieved that.
They've got to go prove it now. But I'll take
a lot of their new over most of the other
countries unproven. I don't know how to explain it, guys.

(37:36):
If you go watch and practice, they're one of three
or four teams where you just blindly assume everyone's a
stud and you're not missing the mark by much if
you assume that they have potentially a game changing pass
rush any set of downs. We get to see that
early on against Ohio State. There again, are just so
many ways they can beat you. But I'm telling you,

(37:58):
there are more than a few teams on this schedule
that can beat them, and it makes me less comfortable
in backing Texas when I know Ohio State's on the road,
Florida's on the road, oh U is away from home,
They've got to go to Georgia late in the year.
There's a lot of newness that you're taking into those
tough environments. I do think there are a couple of
losses on the schedule, but I do have Texas playing

(38:19):
for the SEC championship and I got them going ten
and two in the regular season. Next up, let's do
Bama Jesse. Yeah, let's go ahead and do o Bama.
Okay Alabama. Alabama over underwent total at fanduels nine and
a half. I think this staff challenges Georgia for the

(38:39):
best overall coaching staff that we have graded in the SEC.
Last year was a whole story unto itself. Last year
is not this year, and I think this year will
help a lot of people better view last year through
the proper prism. They are excellent out wide both sides
of the ball. Wide receiver room maybe the best in
the conference. I think they do have the best group

(39:01):
of defensive backs in the conference, and there's a lot
of variety in both of those rooms, and there are
a lot of young guys who are pushing for play
in time, but that they don't actually have to play.
It's just luxury. If they get those kind of guys
on the field, consistency will be the key offensively for
them this year. I don't mean they need to be consistent.
I think they will be consistent. They weren't last year.

(39:24):
The same team that went and dropped forty plus at
LSU got dunked on on the road at Oklahoma and
just tossed the ball away left and right. Well, how
in the world, for all the criticism throwing that offensive
staff's way, how do you game plan for that? You
don't even know. It's a schizophrenic profile of a team.
You don't even know what you're getting week to week.
How do you develop an offensive game plan for that?

(39:45):
Ty Simpson may not have the highest of highs that
Milroe had, he may not lead Sports Center as much,
but I guarantee you there'll be plenty consistent enough at quarterback.
That's a former five star talent, by the way, to
where the complimentary nature of having good having a good
offensive line, having great skill out wide, and having a
defense that doesn't force you to score forty a game

(40:07):
will lend itself to a more steady, consistent outcome week
to week. I got Alabama in the SEC Championship game.
I got them going ten and two in route to
getting to Atlanta. I don't have anyone in this conference
winning more than ten games, so I got Bama right
there at the top of the league. I think we
should do South Carolina next because a lot of people

(40:28):
are asking for it. In the live chat. South Carolina
is over underwent total at FanDuel is seven and a half.
This is very tough for me, very tough because their
strength of schedule is number five. Their best offensive player
could also be the best win in the league. Their
best defensive player could also be the best one in
the league. There's a huge if here. This is my

(40:48):
separation from what I've heard from camp, and it's going
to be the defining point to me of their season.
I still need to see their wide receiver room downstream
of Nick Harbor come through for me to believe that
this can be a dynamic enough offense to win nine
plus games. If I'm wrong, That's how they'll win nine

(41:08):
plus games. If they are a contender for the SEC Championship.
It'll because that wide receiver room has exceeded above my expectations,
and also because they've really successfully backfilled the defensive departures
to the NFL. I give them great credit for developing
players there. Like you look at a lot of the
guys they've sent to the NFL. These were not all

(41:28):
five stars, sure fire locks no matter where they go
type guys. So they've done a supreme job of developing.
So by that logic, you may look at me and say, okay, well,
if we develop that wave, might you think we have
another wave coming through. That's why I call it a
question instead of weakness. But those questions make me go
on the low end because of the strength of schedule.

(41:50):
So I'm going to go eight and four for South
Carolina and call it a really good year. But with
the understanding that Leonora Sellers could be the best quarterback
in the country, and if he is, that's the kind
of guy who has the kind of skill set that
can will a team through a game. Watch the Clemsing
game last year if you don't believe me. And so

(42:11):
nine to three, even ten and two wouldn't shot me
with them, But realistically, like if I've got a bet
money on this, I'm going more towards eight and four
with South Carolina, Let's go with Oklahoma, next most fascinating
team in the league. To me, Oklahoma over underwent total
seven and a half at fan duel. I am very

(42:32):
high on this team, have been since the spring, even
the late winter. I didn't even have to wait until
the spring. The bad news is they do have the
number two strength of schedule in the country according to
our internal metrics. The good news is they got John
Matteir and despite the fact that there are some doubters
about his throwing motion and quality of competition faced, I
think he can compete for the Heisman Trophy. He will

(42:54):
cut through this league cut through, not meaning he'll dominate it,
although I think he'll be good cut through meaning his
talent will level up. It will translate his game, will translate,
his offensive quarter that he coordinator that he brought in toe,
his offensive coordinator will translate. Their offense will translate to
this conference. I trust their wide receiver additions. I hope

(43:18):
that the offensive line will allow this team to reach
its potential. I think defense not big question for me.
Defensive profile top twenty conservatively, it's the offensive line. It
was last year or too. I start to sometimes get
myself in this mode where, since I want to buy
into a team, I believe best case scenario about the

(43:39):
question position unit, Well, the offensive line is the question
position unit. I can't allow myself to do that, though,
so I've got to still believe there's some ups and downs.
I still will not go crazy about the prediction because
of the uncertainty along the offensive line. But I think
this is a dangerous team, and I think it's a
team where the losses are really close losses. I've got

(44:01):
them going eight and four, and I've got this being
the only team that at eight and four has some
kind of fringe comment made about them on playoff selection Sunday.
They're not going to the playoff. I'm saying. I could
see that panel sitting at the desk saying, you know,
I think Oklahoma at eight and four is better than
some of these nine and three or ten and two teams,

(44:21):
because that's how good I think they will look, albeit
in an eight and four year. Next up, let's go LSU.
I got two of them that I want to iso here.
LSU's over underwent total is eight and a half. LSU
has me more nervous than any team in the SEC,
because I am lower on LSU than most of the media,

(44:43):
most of the public. It's the hardest team for me
to read. Okay, first, the positives. They've done an excellent
job making moves on defense. They made moves this time
last year and got the right staffers in there. They
made moves over the winter, and they got the right
guys through the portal, so I actually believe in them
a lot. Defensively, I think Garrett Nussmeyer is a very

(45:04):
good player. I stopped short of calling him a great player.
I think he's a very good player. I think that's
a realistic expectation level to put on him, Expecting high
level offensive line play when there's still some mixing and
matching there and they didn't play to that level last year,
and expecting, more importantly, a complimentary enough ground game to

(45:27):
make this offense balanced enough. Just blindly expecting that is
a bridge a little too far from me, especially when
you got Clemson and Florida and Ole Miss and South
Carolina and Vandy and Texas A and m all before Halloween.
It is not a backloaded schedule, So you got to
come firing out of the gate with a defined offensive
identity that I haven't seen you have in a couple

(45:49):
of years, and a defense that's playing at a high level,
which I actually believe will happen, but still have to
have proven. They play five Tier one opponents, they play
two Tier two opponents. By our estimation, this is a
tough schedule, no matter if you're the best team in
the country or not. I've got them going eight and four,
and I actually think that's a really good team going

(46:10):
eight and four. I just think this is a very
challenging schedule that if I have questions at offensive line
and I don't know you can run the ball effectively enough,
will not allow me to go above an eight and
four prediction. Lastly, before I go the rest of the conference,
I'm gonna zone in on Tennessee right here for just
a second. Let's see win total. Yeah eight and a half. Okay,

(46:30):
Tennessee's over under win total at FanDuel is eight and
a half. Churn was going to be inevitable this year.
They knew it last year. I've told this story a
few times I was up there for a game last
year and was asking some personnel types about this year.
They already knew they were going to have their challenges,
offensive line being chief among them. But they do get
the second easiest strength of schedule in the SEC this year.

(46:52):
That's what gives them an outside shot to contend. Here's
my question about Joey Aguilar. So he comes there, he
was at app State, he went and ate breakfast at
UCLA basically, then he comes to Tennessee. Josh Hipel's quarterbacks
don't really turn the ball over a whole lot, but
he did last year. So is Hypel systems sort of

(47:12):
turnover proof? Is that the kind of system that you
plug a quarterback in and like a lego piece, it
just fits. I wouldn't put it past him. I don't
know that that's how the real world works, but if
it does work that way, Josh Hipel is the one
that will prove me wrong and find a way to
show that offensive line just has to overperform this year.
That wide receiver room really needs to stay healthy and

(47:33):
shake itself out, and we need a really really good
delineation one two three. I need guys to take on
roles and have a developed picture, because this is not
the kind of quarterback that's going to elevate a room.
It's the kind of quarterback that needs to be elevated
by his supporting cast. I just expect mixed results from them,

(47:53):
and I've got him going eight and four this year.
And I'm telling you, because of all the external drama
around this team, this is me. This is not the
way they should think. I think there's a world where
they go eight and four and they feel really good
coming out of it, all things considered about twenty twenty six. Now, again,
that is not how I would advise Josh Heipelin company
to think. By the way, we've got a lot of

(48:14):
folks watching live. Make sure you like the video unless
I just picked you to you know, hit under on
your win total, in which case I understand if you don't,
but it helps us when you like the video. Plus,
you're watching anyway, and it's free. Some other teams here.
I just want to because I wanted to show you
every team, so I just gave you like ten teams.
I got Missouri going eight and four this year. I'm

(48:36):
a little uneasy about the quarterback thing. I'm a little
uneasy that they'll have the consistency and performance. It's so
important a word in a season that I expect to
play out like this. Anybody who can be consistent, even
if you're just consistently above average, you're gonna set yourself
apart because I just think it sets up for a
very inconsistent, volatile year, and I worry that Missouri can't

(48:57):
give me enough of that. I got him going eight
and four, which is still a good that is not
a bad year. But I think there may be some
people out there painting them because of a more workable schedule.
Is like a fringe SEC title contender. I don't have
them as that. I've got Mississippi State going four and eight,
which is an over. I think they're over underwin total
is either three and a half something like that, so
I've got them going over. I think they could bite

(49:19):
someone still at least another year away. I have got
Vandy going six and six, which I think is fair.
The only person who thinks that's a disappointment is someone
who I think has unrealistic expectations after one year, or
Diego Pavia, and he should have high expectations. Ole miss
I've got going eight and four the same thing. I

(49:40):
think their profile is a really talented team. I love
that their defensive front is mostly homegrown, even as portal
is the optimum word that is associated with them, rightfully,
so they do have a homegrown element about that defensive front.
Austin Simmons could be a breakout star if he is.
I'm wrong. If he is, they're going to go over

(50:00):
eight wins. I've got Arkansas going five and seven. They're
over under win totals five and a half. I think
it can be a competitive team. Taylor Green's a very
good player. I don't know if he's got it around
him man, And it's a tough schedule, and they got
noted aim out of conference. I got him going five
and seven. That probably means a coaching change if I'm right,
and I'll just sit here and hope I'm wrong. I've

(50:23):
got Kentucky going four and eight. I don't feel much
juice out of there. I don't really know where that
program's going right now. So that's how I see the
SEC this year, wins and losses. Now, Listen, you know
the rule around here. I am totally open to a
well intentioned discourse. Of course, a lot of people are

(50:44):
going to disagree with that. There's only one rule. The
rule is not to not disagree. The rule is if
you disagree, make sure you tell me what your predictions are.
Because what we don't have on this campus here, maybe
other camp I, but not on this campus. What we
don't have is folks taking shots at a prediction without
giving their own prediction, because that's the cowards way out,

(51:06):
and we don't do that. We don't breed that around here.
Do you see this monitor? Do you see this monitor? Well,
that means the Peate State store has reopened. Peytstatematerial dot
com is open. If you missed the show the other night,
it's open. But what you may have noticed was missing
the other night was the Fall Don't Lie merch, and

(51:27):
we got flooded. I almost feel like I got spammed.
We got so many DMS and emails and comments, where's
the fall Don't Lie stuff? Where's the Fall Don't Lie stuff? Well,
I'll tell you where it is. It's here right now.
We just hit go on it right before the show.
In fact, I was talking to Alex who runs Designed
for Us, who was a genius by the way, and

(51:49):
I was telling her Alex the rama Noodle Express shirt
was our number one seller the other night. I think
people are really digging the nuanced type show related stuff
a whole lot, which leads me to my next point.
We just announced the tour. We got so many good
designs let's not even settle on one, so we didn't.
So they are like three different designs over there, including
the one that presme Tyler formerly known as Tyler the Creator.

(52:12):
Apparently that name was taken, so we got that design.
We got a new design we just mocked up last night.
We got a third design. We got all kind of designs.
So the Fall Don't Lie Tour hits the road this Saturday,
and you can be outfitted accordingly. We have got mountains
of feedback on the Peate State store. I welcome it
because I basically want to put in there what you

(52:32):
want to wear, So let me know what you want.
In a perfect world, people are wearing this stuff that
don't even watch the show. Imagine whoms to amongst us
could envision that happening. Okay, as I mentioned, we got
a big game coming up Texas at Ohio State noon

(52:53):
eastern kickoff on Fox. I've got a forecast. Let's go
sixty eight degrees kickoff. Let's call that we're still a
few days away. We're going to be there. The Fault
Ut Live Tour is going to be there. I'll be
on the sidelines for this game. I cannot wait. Last
time I was at Ohio Stadium, it was twenty one
degrees at kickoff. So I will take this, and I'll

(53:13):
take it in short sleeves, immunity. Let's set the table.
This is number one versus number two in the odds
to win the National Championship. This is number one versus
number two in the JP pole. And these are two
teams that don't return a whole lot of production. Eighty
first and eighty ninth in returning production. It doesn't even
matter who's who. These are not normal teams. Okay. I

(53:35):
know a lot of times in preview magazine culture, you
can sort of get lost in the sauce, so to speak,
and you can think all returning starters are created equal
and all new starters are created equal. All I can
tell you is watch warm ups. I know most of
you don't have access to practice, but if you could
go watch these teams practice, you'd look at Texas's guys.

(53:56):
You look at Ohio States guys, and you'd say who's
that and they say, oh, that's a new starter. And
the reason you ask who's that is because he looks
like a second third year NFL guy. They're everywhere, So
not all new starters are created equal, is my point,
which means a game like this, with this blend of

(54:17):
raw talent and this blend of uncertainty, means you could
have any outcome imaginable. It could be twenty one to
nineteen either way, it could be thirty eight to twenty
either way. There is probably no result outside of like
fifty to ten that would shot me in this game.
I think Ohio State needs to find out. Though there

(54:38):
are gonna be a lot to talk about Arch Manning here.
They're gonna be a lot to talk about Jeremiah Smith,
Caleb Downs, there should be Ryan Wingo needs to get
a lot of mention. But fundamentally, the key to this
game is Ohio State's got to find out. And what
they got to find out is did Texas really rebuild
the interior of that defensive line like everyone says they did?

(54:58):
Cause you can talk in spring talking fall camp, but
what happens if you run it between the tackles and
you're running it for six and a half seven yards
per carry in the first quarter, midway through the second quarter,
and you start to realize, Wow, the easiest way to
ease Julian say and into a season is second, three
after second and three after second and three. Boy, that's

(55:19):
really favorable to ease a new quarterback into a season. Now,
I say that, and you need to understand, yes, yes,
we got two Ohio State tailbacks that departed to the
NFL as well. So People's and Donaldson like, we don't
know what we're gonna get from them. I can tell
you that staff thinks a lot of them, But you know,

(55:40):
Florida State staff thought a lot of their players last
year and they were dead in the water. I don't
think that's gonna be Ohio State this year. But the
point is, you don't know, you don't know. Itto live
bullets start flying and it's those guys turn. Well, it's
their turn now. Just like on the other side of
the ball, it's Texas's interior defensive line. It's their turn. Now.
Can they stand up against the run, because if they can,

(56:01):
then we start to ask the other questions. It's probably
the question that's going to lead the broadcast. It'll be
the question on most people's minds. It's the quarterback question.
But the way I think about the quarterback match up
here is I think about the QB one wide receiver
one pairings. So I got Julian Say, and I got
Jeremiah Smith, who's the best player in America to me.
I got arch Manning. I got Ryan Wingo, who doesn't

(56:23):
take a back seat to very many Besides this dude
at Ohio State. Is there a huge gap between those
or if that's a wash, shouldn't I expect Ohio State
to own this side of the matchup card because I
look at Ohio State beyond Jeremiah Smith, and I got Tate,
and I got Ennis, and I got Claire the tight

(56:45):
end transfer I believe from Purdue. I mean, they got
pass catchers there that you won't even hear a whole
lot about this Saturday. That would start many places, many
places that are expected to compete for playoff spots. But
then on the other side, downstream of Ryan Wingo, I
got more, I got Livingstone, I got those tight end
transfers at Texas. My point is I look at that

(57:09):
and I think, hey, man, even if Texas gets a
lot out of Ryan Wingo, just like Ohio State probably
will out of Jeremiah Smith. I really like Ohio State's receivers.
I like their pass catchers downstream of their QB one
wide receiver one. But this is Texas, it's Steve Sarkesian.
So they just they grow those guys on trees there
to the point where one way this game could get

(57:32):
crooked in a way that I don't expect it. I
can't see it coming is arch has already got two
hundred and seventy five passing yards late in the third quarter,
and I've got like three or four different guys with
sixty plus on the board. That's the kind of thing
that could happen. It's a variable quarterback. And then the
other one is pass rush. Texas's pass rush is unmatched nationally,

(57:54):
and they got to earn the right to get there.
That's why I led with the point of stopping to run.
So Texas has got to earn the right to get there.
But once they earned the right to rush the passer
at which doesn't have to be third down for them.
By the way, these dudes drew on the field a
lot when Texas gets after the quarterback, which they will
a lot this year. It's not one guy like if
Colin Simmons was on your team, he would be on

(58:16):
the face of your program. But if Anthony Hill was
on your team, he'd also be on the face of
your program. And I got news for you. If Trey
Moore was on your team, he'd probably be on the
face of your program. Colton v Sec would probably be
on the face of your program if he played for you,
and they got all of them. So it could be

(58:37):
that nobody's moving the ball particularly well and those guys
end up turning the game around. And it's the kind
of thing that Brian Hartline, for being a first time
play caller, may not deal with but one or two
times the rest of his career. It's just a very
hilasis pass rush. Now again, you run the ball right
at him successfully, it neutralizes a lot of that. That's

(59:00):
why the million dollar questions, can you run the ball
at him successfully? I'm going to repeat this before I
give you our prediction and what the model thinks. The
range of potential outcomes couldn't be wider here. There will
be a lot of people from Austin Texas and Columbus Saturday,
and you'll walk around outside the stadium and you'll see
the sites. It's a great place to go, it's awesome
place to visit. And you'll talk amongst yourselves and you'll

(59:23):
say things like, Hey, where y'all from? Abilene? Oh yeah, man,
we're from We're from ash de Bulah. Happy to have
y'all here. Boy. It should be a great game either way.
Today you don't know that. You don't know this is
going to be a great game. This could be a
blowout your way, it could be a blowout their way.
You have two of the most loaded talent rosters in America,
and you got a ton of uncertainty. When you throw

(59:46):
those ingredients in the blender. You could spit out twenty
one to twenty. You could spit out forty one to thirteen.
Someone's minus three turnovers, someone has a career day and
sets up their Heisman campaign. All this stuff's on the table.
That's why I think the padlock stat in this game
will be explosive plays. Let's take a look at what
the model thinks. The model thinks that the line is right,

(01:00:06):
if not a little bit tighter. FanDuel Ohio State minus
two and a half. Our model has Ohio State minus one.
I'm going to tell you where I think the edge
is in this game that I have not mentioned yet,
but I've mentioned several times over the summer, and that
is for all the respect I have for Matt Patricia,
he hadn't done this. For all the respect I got

(01:00:27):
for Brian Hartline, I got a ton of it, he
hadn't done this. Texas has got one of the best
staffs in the country, and they got continuity on that staff,
and I trust him to go on the road here.
I actually don't have a ton of trust in anything
in this game, but I'm gonna lean Texas to win
the game out right Saturday. I think Sark needs the
game more. By the way, that's sort of a storyline thing.
We don't do a ton of that on this show.

(01:00:48):
But I just envisioned a world where Texas goes in
there and wins. That's all right, that's all right. Ohio
State just won a national title. Lick your wounds, regroup.
You may see him again down the road, and you
got your entire conference slate to get ready for it.
You're fine, You're fine. Nothing's ruined and nothing would be
ruined for Texas either. Here's the difference. If they go

(01:01:10):
and they lose this game, they still got the rest
of their season to play. But it just it becomes
this little bullet in the chamber, and it's still in
the hold stir. You're not ready, You're not ready to
fire on anyone yet, but you start to get yourself
ready to say, now, hold on a second, if he
loses another game in the regular season, Hold on a second.

(01:01:31):
You got beat by Debor in the playoff, and then
you had two shots against Kirby last year and you
went zero for two there. And now we lost to
Ryan Day in the playoff last year, and now we
got another shot at him. Should have been the revenge game.
And they got new everything up there, new coaches, and
we couldn't get the job done against them. Either. We're
having trouble against big time coaches. They start questioning Steve Sarkisian.

(01:01:56):
I think Sartan needs the game more. Academy sports are
not doors is where you need to go to get
outfitted for it. Specifically, you got to get those tents,
canopy tents God send this time of year and any
time of year you need your chairs, You need your coolers,
you need your coozies, you need well big lead chew.
Of course, a staple of any good college football diet.

(01:02:16):
Academy Sports and Outdoors has been with us from the beginning.
We had a meeting about these folks a little earlier today.
Very encouraged with what we're going to do with them
this upcoming season. I'm very encouraged because I know, any
given show we're doing, there are many people who have
never visited Academy, and there's some of you, candidly who
don't have one in your backyard. That's okay. You have Internet.
You have to because that's how you're watching the show

(01:02:39):
or listening to the show. Academy dot com works. Check
them out no matter what you need in life. If
you're a college football fan, if you love outdoors, if
you're going to hunt in this fall, WIT's Turkey season
opening in Arkansas, make sure you go to Academy before
it does. I got one more game I wanted to
break down tonight. See Week one's always weird because Week one,

(01:02:59):
I mean, we're we got Sunday games, we got Friday games,
we got all kinds of stuff happening. Plus we'll do
some game predictions on Sunday. So I'm doing some game
predictions tonight. I'm doing the rest of them Tuesday. The
show's not nearly over. I'm just saying. If I don't
do LSU Clemson on the show tonight, it's cause we're
waiting for Tuesday. I got a hiccup. I'm sorry. That's

(01:03:20):
why I was buying time. So I am going to
do this one though, because this is a Friday game.
Auburn's playing Baylor. Oh man, something's going to go terribly
wrong for someone. This is a Friday night eight Eastern
time kickoff on Fox. Does Brando have this game? Does
Uncle Tim? I think Uncle Tim has this game. Saw
someone hating on Uncle Tim today? Shame, shame, and scoring

(01:03:42):
on you. Let's set the table here. These two head
coaches were slandered last year. Dave Randa was all but
fired and then he had the audacity to win. It
was like Billy Napier light out there in Waco, and
then Hugh Freeze. Of course, I mean last year. Listen
to this. This is a paper popa right of a
stat Auburn was twenty seventh in points per game allowed defensively,

(01:04:05):
last year, but they were one hundred and eighteenth in
fifty plus yard pass plays allowed, identity crisis defensively, And
that's not even to mention how many games they led
and had good offensive numbers in except for the one
pesky fact that they kept giving the ball to the
other team. The Oklahoma game still haunts me to this day.

(01:04:27):
So that was last year. College football teaches us every
single year. Last year didn't have to be this year,
but it could be this year if the corrections aren't
made from last year. Think that's a meme, all quote.
So candidly, now that we're here, I have to admit
to you all spring, I expected something in this game.
All summer, I expected something in this game. Then I

(01:04:49):
got to the game breakdown and I've changed my mind.
So let's get into the game breakdown. Should Auburn not
control the line of scrimmage? Here? For all the talk
about quarterbacks, all to talk about this, Auburn's offensive line
could be the most underrated in the country. What is
it rated? I don't know, not top five, and maybe
it should be, because maybe it's a top five offensive line.
The quarterback will get questioned. Jackson Arnold will get questioned,

(01:05:12):
I'll question him. It's a Friday night, it's Waco. Weird
stuff can happen any time of year in Waco. I
got some documentaries to show you if you don't believe me.
So much could go wrong here, here's what could go right.
Baylor's defensive front's a little undersized relative to what Auburn
sees in normal conference play. What if they just lean
on him and mash them? Now, I think to myself,

(01:05:34):
I've got as much respect for Dave Randa of the
defensive coach as almost anyone that side of the ball
in America. So I think to myself self, if there's
a turnover prone quarterback who's starting his first game in
a new school, and his team has really good offensive
line play, and I know they want to run the
ball on me, what's the last thing that personnel wise schematically,

(01:05:57):
I'm gonna let them do. They may do it to it,
but I'm not gonna let him do it run the ball.
So I think Dave A. Randa sells out in every
way imaginable to try and stop the run. Now, if
he's still defenseless against it, it's a long night. It's
thirty to ten Final score Edge Auburn. But if you
blow folks off the ball all night, the quarterback problem
takes care of itself. Baylor was not great against the

(01:06:20):
run last year, so that's kind of a non negotiable, like,
I gotta find that out. And if we start seeing
that Atlina scrimmage move consistently Auburn's way early, we'd probably
go find something else to do in the second half. However,
that is not the way that maybe this will play out.
So then the next thing becomes how big is the
edgic quarterback? We think Baylor has the edgit quarterback Sawyer Robertson.

(01:06:42):
It's pretty safe to say Edge goes his way if
it just comes down to a quarterback versus quarterback matchup. Now,
if you've ever watched this game, you know they're not
on the field at the same time, so that's not
necessarily what it comes down to. But the funny thing
about this is you kind of know the ceiling in
the floor. For Robertson, I've got no clue what the

(01:07:03):
ceiling or the floor is. For Jackson Nonold, I'm pretty
sure last year is the floor. I hope it was.
What's the ceiling? And then the follow up is if
Hugh Freeze really has worked a miracle here, if the
turnover issue just doesn't rear its ugly head, who knows.
Maybe Auburn forces turnovers, that's allowed. But what if the
turnover problem's not there, it's not a turnover prone week one,

(01:07:25):
Auburn's wide receiver room can take over the game. This
is yet another area of this game where I look
at guys like cam Coleman and Frankly, I don't know
that Baylor's got an answer for him size wise. I
don't think they've got a guy that can man up
with him. And then secondly, if Auburn's running the ball effectively,
Baylor's got to make a decision. I think Baylor's they're

(01:07:48):
not playing light box all night like. I don't think
these dbs are gonna have a ton of help, and
that Auburn wide receiver room could take over the game
if the quarterback play lets it. I can't forcest turnovers.
I try, and I try, and I try, and the
model keeps telling me the same thing. You're on your own.
I can't forecast turnovers. Auburn was one hundred and twentieth

(01:08:10):
and turnover margin last year. Baylor was thirty fifth. That's
how this game swings. If those numbers hold, that's how
this game swings. Can Auburn game script to avoid the
high leverage spots? You know? In other words, are there
a bunch of moments Friday night where you go? Or

(01:08:31):
is it just I'm comfortable? Man, I'm sitting here in
Alexander City, Alabama. I'm out here on Lake Martin. I
couldn't be happier with what I'm seeing. Auburn's got the
talent edge, you know, so if talent, if talent wins out,
Auburn wins out Friday. I gotta be honest with you.
Let's take a look at what the model thinks. The
FanDuel number right now is Auburn minus two and a half.

(01:08:51):
The model disagrees, but you know what, the model disagreed
with me on Iowa State too. And then I was
emphatically right on that Auburn's gonna win this game. Auburn's
gonna go went to Waco, Texas on a Friday night.
Most of these guys are visiting Waco for the last
time in their lives, and I think they're gonna get
a win. Now, it may not be pretty. But it's
the kind of game where you go in there, you

(01:09:12):
get your win, and then you get to the airport
as quick as you can, and as you take off,
you say, all right, a ton of mistakes tonight, we'll
get them cleaned up. But everyone looked me in the eye.
We avoided disaster. I think Auburn's going to avoid disaster
and they're gonna win in week one. If you want
to go, go, don't buy your ticket chet until you

(01:09:32):
go to seat Geek. And this goes for anyone and
everyone out there. You don't even have to be going
to a college football game, although I assume most of
you are. I know it's ticket buying season, so I'm
pulling the same string I did last year with our
friends over at seat Geek. You got a lot of
tickets to buy, so you know, buy them at your leisure,
but make sure when you use seat Geek. I'm just
getting you a discount here. So I'm gonna get you

(01:09:55):
ten percent off any order of up to two hundred dollars.
Any order above two hund oh, I'm just getting you
twenty dollars off. So you know I can't just get
you ten percent off of two million dollar order. How
many Taylor Swift shows is that? By the way, so
use the code paate ten at checkout, pat E one
zero at checkout. Again, you're going to these games anyway.

(01:10:17):
Just save yourself some money in this economy, in any economy,
save yourself some money. I got bold predictions. And then
at the end of the show tonight, look at this.
I believe in writing by hand, but I had Jesse
print out a few nuggets and items of interest for
Pate State Orientation tonight because we have so many nubes

(01:10:40):
around here. That's not a pejorative. We love you just
like we love our seasoned veterans. But there's a lot
about the show that doesn't make sense. And don't worry
if I'm describing you. If you find yourself thoroughly confused,
a lot like what is Pate State? What school is that?
Don't worry? What is immunity? Don't worry. I'm gonna playing it.

(01:11:00):
I got one more batch of bold predictions here. By
the way, Great crowd Live chat is popping. Make sure
you like the video and subscribe to the channel. These
things are free. I know. I make fun a lot
in the comment section. That's how we keep the show free.
Show is going to be free no matter what. Just
a little spoiler alert. Just help us out on that

(01:11:20):
one front. Just subscribe to the channel. It doesn't change
anything for you. It doesn't sign you up for anything.
It helps put food on the table for Bradley and
Pez and Mitch and Jesse sometimes me. So it helps
us out. We appreciate it. It's free. It's college football
all year. That's how that's how you can show a
token of your appreciation. And that's about all I need
you to do. Okay, Bold prediction time, one of the

(01:11:43):
last batches here. What do you believe? What are you
betting your money on this year? What are you willing
to back up with your good, hard earned name in
exchange for me potentially calling you out in December if
it crashes and burns. First up tonight, Alex, He says,
bold prediction. This is a good one. Three states will
have two teams in the college football playoff. This is
a nine point five for me. But hear me out.

(01:12:05):
So it could be Texas. There's a bunch of teams
in Texas. It could be Florida. We need two teams,
by the way, So Florida could make it, Miami could
make it. Could FSU surprise people and be back Scott Frost.
There's no way, no way, usf who knows you know?
Iowa is a sneaky contender here. Iowa State could win
the Big twelve. Iowa could surprise people. New quarterback there

(01:12:27):
from the FCS ranks, go ten and two. South Carolina's
got Clemson in South Carolina. Tennessee like Tennessee and Memphis.
Maybe I'm not quite buying that. Vandy's a playoff contender.
Georgia has Georgia Tech and Georgia Louisiana Tulane LSU. It's
just that three states have to get a pair of

(01:12:48):
teams in California. It's just shame I didn't even mention California.
I'm not quite there, So I'm gonna go nine and
a half next up. Somehow this is even bolder. From Gainsville, Florida.
It'll make sense. In a second. DJ Lagway wins the Heisman,
Florida wins the national championship. That's a nine point seventy
five So for those interested, Florida has the twelfth best

(01:13:10):
odds to win it all. DJ Lagway has the eleventh
best odds to win the Heisman Trophy. That number is low.
I've already bet on it. First Off, you need him
to play an entire season, which is notable because he
hasn't gotten through a stretch of camp yet without missing reps.
Trust me, I don't say that with the glee. I
need him to play the whole year. I mean I've

(01:13:31):
got a playoff prediction riding on this. Secondly, they got
a good ground game, okay, so we can lean on that,
so I don't need him to be Superman. They could
make it to the title game and lose. Though. That's
the problem with this prediction. Lagway could win the Heisman.
Florida could go twelve and zero and win the SEC
and buzz all their way through the quarterfinal, the semi final,

(01:13:52):
and then they get beaten the title game and this
prediction crashed and burn. This is really hard, So I'm
going to make it a nine point seventy five immunity.
Next up, Oh the headlines if this were to happen,
Keegan from Month CPA good people in Munsey, He said,
Penn State boat races, Ohio State and Columbus winning by
three or more scores. Why can't you just predict them

(01:14:12):
to win by three. They hadn't beat him since twenty sixteen.
That's bold enough. So this is a should have made
it a ten, Jesse, make it a ten. This is
a ten. They haven't won this game, as I said,
since twenty sixteen. And even if Penn State does go
in there and they beat Ohio State, if you told
me all that right now, but you didn't tell me

(01:14:34):
to score, I'd still make this like a nine. They're
not beating them by seventeen plus. They may beat them
by three, they may beat them by six. In no
world does Penn State go in there and blow them out.
Just not the It's not conducive to the style of
play they incorporate. So I'm making that a nine point
seventy five. And that scratched that making it a ten.
And lastly, you gotta be careful with the wording here.

(01:14:57):
Every game Miami wins, it will be by double digits. Now,
what he did not say is Miami will win every
game by double digits. So they could be eight and four,
but as long as their eight wins are all by
double digits, this prediction hits. I think this is bold
but not crazy. So this is a nine. So think
this through. If you can't see the schedule. They play

(01:15:19):
Notre Dame in week one, they could just lose the game.
They play Florida a few weeks later. They could lose
the game. They could lose to Louisville. They can go
to SMU and lose. They can lose all those games.
But as long as they beat FSU and Stanford and
Syracuse and NC State and VOTEC and Pitt by double digits,
this could hit. I still think that's a stretch. First off,

(01:15:41):
they may beat Notre Dame, probably just not beaten them
by double digits. Probably not beating Florida even if they
do by double digits. So I'm gonna call this a nine.
But there is this weird world where it's like Miami
goes eight and four, but they're nowhere close to nine
and three. So they go eight and four and all
of their wins or blowouts, but they never really came
close to beating any of the other teams. So, and

(01:16:03):
to be weird but not impossible, you can bet it
all on f exclusive odds provider of the show. I've
got big news. By the way, I don't know if
you've heard about that new holiday they're having over there.
I tend to partake in this one. Future's Day is
Tuesday at FanDuel, and you might be riding around and
your little kids asking you, Daddy, what's Future's Day. Well,
you don't need to worry about it. You need to

(01:16:25):
go to school. You're in third grade, so you cannot
bet responsibly. You cannot bet period. Dad can, though, So
if dad wants to bet responsibly, you might want to
wait till Tuesday to do it. Instant bonus on any
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(01:16:48):
It's not illegal for you to do it on Monday.
I would just say wait until Future's Day. On Tuesday,
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click refresh on that one, which is a little messed
up if you think about it, I think I should
know what they are. Write that down all right, FanDuel
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(01:17:11):
you access this for new view or for new customers
you sign up. I mean, let me tell you what
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you were a new customer here. You used our code.
You use the QR code there FanDuel dot com slash
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(01:17:33):
There's no limit. I told you you'll bet five dollars
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sure enough, one of our viewers said, Wow, I thought
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I wasn't lying. You could still do it. You could
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Hope is here. Visit gambling Helplinema dot org or call
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eight Hope, n Y. Or text h O P E
n Y in New York. All right, this is a
very very important segment on the show. Candidly, if I

(01:19:03):
screw this up at all, I'll just make Bradley stay
around late because we'll re record it. Because this is
gonna live on the channel. This will be like on
the home screen when anyone shows up. All right, let
me clear my voice, let me clear my head. It
is time. It is time, Bradley. When I snap my fingers,

(01:19:24):
that's when I want you to in cut for the edit.
It is time for everyone who's new around here, or
everyone who's been here for a while but needs a
little re education of sorts to participate in peate state orientation. Bradley,
here's a good point for you. Peate state orientation. What
in the world is this? What is this place? What
is this show? This is a one stop shop if

(01:19:45):
you're new, if you're a new listener, if you're a
new viewer, if you've got a friend you're trying to recruit,
or if you've been watching but you need a refresher course.
This right here at beginning of the college football season,
this is orientation for this channel. What is this show?
It's college football show. It's Josh Payt's college football show.
I'm Josh Pate. We do it year round. Several years ago,
I looked around and I said, there are thirty seven

(01:20:07):
NFL shows. There seem like there are a million NBA shows.
There are college football shows, but I really don't feel
like any of them speak to me. They don't get
in the weeds enough. It's just this fifty thousand foot stuff.
So you can either complain about it or you can
make the show you want to watch. So we made
the show we want to watch. We do it three
nights a week during the season. It's live Sunday, Tuesday, Thursday,

(01:20:30):
eight Eastern, seventh Central. You can watch the replay. You
can listen to it on podcast. We own the entire thing.
There is not a single corporate entity that owns one
percent of this show. We own it, We produce it.
The IP is ours, the name is ours, the channel
is ours, the podcast fee it is ours. So if
you see anything happen on this show, it's not conspiratorial.

(01:20:53):
It's not caused somebody from management on high asked us
to do this, or some network told us we had
to do that. I'm not sure that happens anyway, but
it definitely doesn't happen around here. It's our show producer, Jesse,
that's our producer, Director Bradley, that's our producer. We got Mitch,
We got pres out in the truck right now. We
had a whole host of people. But there are people
We completely make this happen because you have allowed us

(01:21:15):
to make it happen. Let me tell you about us.
We ride or die for college football. No apologies. We
don't feel bad about it. We live for it all year.
We don't care what casuals think. We don't think casuals
are bad people. We just don't value their opinion quite
as much as the rest of you do. They, for instance,

(01:21:36):
would tell you you're a bad person for skipp and
fall weddings. We don't think that. We think they're bad
people for expecting you to compromise your values. The rest
of society looks down on that. We don't look down
on that kind of mentality around here because we're really
about the life. We're really about the college football life.
If I'm describing you, you are what we call paid
state material. You'll see me throw that term around quite frequently.

(01:22:00):
What is Pate State, Well, we kind of tried to
make up a fictitious university. We wanted something to describe
our community that we've built for the show, and we
wanted something that sort of was a reflector of the
ethos of the show. We wanted, you know, something you
can belong to, but something that belongs to you, if

(01:22:21):
that makes any sense, and that is Pate State. It's
an idea, it's a cool logo, it's a community, it's
all of these things. It's all of these things kind
of like its whole little world. Some things that you're
going to hear around here that if you're new, may
not make a lot of sense. I'll talk about splatterings
a lot. That's just a blowout loss, guys, It's going
to happen a lot in college football season. Close cousin

(01:22:43):
of the Sarah McLaughlin Special, which also makes its triumphant
return this week, and that is one time per week
there's a game that really goes sideways, it really goes
off the rails, and it's not good enough to just
do a game recap. We got to set some off
piano music under it. Now. We don't pay Sarah McLaughlin
enough to license her actual songs per se, but we

(01:23:07):
make it close enough where you get the gist. And
I'll just read a box score off and it's a really,
really tough emotional time if you're a fan of that team.
But I think it brings us all together in the end.
You'll hear me say immunity a lot. For instance, if
I talk about a game and I say, this is
a big one, one of the biggest ones we've ever seen.
Immunity immunity born from shows like The Office is just

(01:23:29):
a very juvenile rule that we made up, wherein if
you say immunity after a phrase that anyone could drop,
that's what she said on they are ineligible to drop.
That's what she said. And you may listen to that
and you may think, well, that's childish. It absolutely is,
but again we make no apologies for it. Will you

(01:23:49):
will hear occasionally, especially if you're listening on podcast that
out of nowhere, so a lot of sounds like gunfire,
roll the window up. No, it's a paper pop. It's
just a point of emphasis. If we've got some they're
really important to say. You know, Jesse got a haircut. Boom,
paper pop, point of emphasis. We have a very very
unique way of pluralization on the show Drive the Grammar

(01:24:12):
Teachers Crazy, And that form of pluralization is that you
could just throw an accent and eye on the end
of most words, and we consider them plural campus. For example,
I'll be on several of them this fall. Are they campuses? No,
they're CAMPI that's what they are. We have chalices of supremacy. No,
we don't. We have chali of supremacy. I would encourage

(01:24:35):
you to just start doing it in your personal life
everywhere up to an including a standardized test. Maybe not
so much on the test, but in life. It drives
people crazy. And that's how we roll around here. Look,
every Fall consists of a nationwide tour. My job is wonderful.
I wish you all could do it with me. Imagine this.
You talk about college football all week, you spend the globe,

(01:24:57):
you handpick the game you want to go to, You
go stand on the side line at that game. On Saturday,
you either drive or fly back to Nashville, and you
talk about it on Sunday. Rinch repeat the next week.
We call it fill in the Blank Tour. We had
the Renaissance Tour, we had the whole New Saturday Tour.
We had the Every Given Saturday Tour. We had the
Once upon a Saturday Tour. This Falls Tour is the

(01:25:18):
Fall Don't Lie Tour. Shirts now available at paytstatematerial dot com.
I look forward to it. It is such a great time.
It's my favorite time of the year. We view games
a little differently around here as well. You know, anyone
can rank teams. Many people do ranked teams. We've never
really been into rankings. Here at payt State, we are

(01:25:40):
into power ratings. Now. Power ratings and rankings are two
different things. Rankings is merit based. You win, you move up,
you lose, you move down. Power ratings don't really care
about that. Power ratings are more in line with neutral
field favorability. We've got our own model over here, so
we generate our own numbers in house. It's adictive. We

(01:26:00):
use it to bet. We've made money on it every
year except one. I don't want to mention which year
that was. It's a little too close in the rearview mirror.
But all we really care about is who would the
model favor against two on a neutral field tomorrow. There
are several one and oh teams that would be an
underdog to in one teams. Does it make sense in
rankings world? Makes perfect sense in power ratings world. How

(01:26:21):
do we illustrate it every week with our own poll,
the JP pole? Do people vote on it? No? Does
it still stack up in traditionally what you would call rankings, Yes,
it does, we don't call it rankings. You will notice
that this is one of these single drivers of the
most negative discourse around this show. When the JP pole
is released on social media every week, and no matter

(01:26:44):
how thoroughly I explain the gist of it, many many
people on social media who see it do not watch
the show. They will never watch this video, and therefore
they are the unwashed masses. They are casuals. It's unfortunate.
It's unfortunate, but it's a reality, as Mima said, the
world that we have to live in. And so we
do the JP Pole every single week. We predict our

(01:27:06):
best bets and we call it the Rama Noodle Express.
The Rama Noodle Express is a name that was born
long ago from an inside joke that a guy used
to have with us when I was doing talk radio
down in Columbus, Georgia. So the Rama Noudle Express will
really start Tuesday night. If you're listening live right now,
and if you're listening throughout the season. We could release

(01:27:26):
a best bet at any given time. It could be
on Instagram, it could be on the show, but it'll
all cap itself on Friday Night Lines. Friday Night Lines
is the culmination of the entire week. It's on Instagram
live at Josh pat CFB, by the way, and I'll
do it most of the time from a hotel room
in the city of the game that we're going to

(01:27:48):
be at the next day. It is very low produced,
it's very low quality, it's poorly lit, and it's just
me interacting with the live chat. I got the model
pulled up and I tell you what the best bets are,
but the games that you're interested in that I'm not betting.
I also give you the model's opinion on that. It's
a great time. Great time one of my favorite things

(01:28:09):
that we do. We've got several new partnerships this year.
None of them will affect the show. I have entered
into a partnership with ESPN. You'll see me on Sports Center,
Get Up, Whatnot every week. Has nothing to do with
this show, though. I've entered into a partnership with Will
and Taylor, the guy's over Busting with the Boys. Just
did a great show with them last week. We'll do
the locker room with them every Wednesday over on their channel.

(01:28:32):
It's going to be awesome. I think it's going to
be a product that really scales this year. But that's
separate and apart from this show. I have entered into
a partnership with on three Sports. They will be the
exclusive data provider of this show when it comes to
transfer portal information, recruiting rankings and the like, nil valuations.
That is a partnership we don't work for ON three.

(01:28:53):
We are partnered with on three, which is awesome because
I love and have worked with before. Many of the
people who are here. We have partnered with Yahoo Sports.
They were instrumental in building this beautiful studio that we're
in right now, among several other distribution mechanisms that we
now have available to us and partnerships and know how,

(01:29:14):
as a result of the Yahoo Sports collaboration, none of
what I just said affects the show. And I want
to tell you that because there's been a lot of
talk out there all these partnerships. Man, are you selling
out here? Are you selling out there to sell out?
I've got to own less than one hundred percent of
the show, and last time I checked, we own one
hundred percent of it. Always will. I haven't always, but

(01:29:36):
I always will. So I wanted to take some time
tonight and ease your concerns. We're not entering into any
partnership that fundamentally changes this show in any way. The
show is the north Star and everything else works around it.
The merch store is back and it's incredible. Peytstatematerial dot Com.
We are going to have things rotating in and out

(01:29:56):
of there all year. I am very, very happy with
the team we have work in there. However, I'm wearing
a white T shirt, and there's a reason I've always
worn a white T shirt on this show. I feel
like Orientation Night is the time to remind you why
that is. The white T shirt is born out of
a time long ago when I was working in local

(01:30:16):
news and someone I really love but I had a
fundamental disagreement with, told me you can't be on TV
and not wear a suit. You can't be talking sports
on TV not wearing a suit. And I just always
thought it was dumb. If I'm on the news reporting
a triple homicide, I need to be wearing a suit.
If I'm on TV talking about Auburn versus Baylor, it

(01:30:37):
doesn't matter what I'm wearing. And I never thought sports
fans cared about what you're wearing. If you're talking sports,
they're not wearing suits at home, Why in the world
would I be so? I always thought to myself, one day,
when I get to do it my way, I'm going
to emphatically prove this point. I wear a white T
shirt every show. It's economical, it feels good. I don't

(01:30:58):
really care if it looks good. It is good, it
works for us. There is no bias for or against
any team on the show. I'm gonna say that, and
most people will disagree with it. They will claim you're
a fan or you're a hater of everyone. There'll be
people who pull up old Internet clips or old snapshots
from news stations you used to work at, and they

(01:31:19):
have no idea what they're looking at. They have no idea.
It's part of a multi tiered marketing campaign that we
did back in the day at WLTZ. Strangely only one
screenshot of which still exists. Anyway, everybody that someone thinks
you're a fan of that fan base has a portion
of that thinks you're a hater of. There's no real,
baked in bias. We talk good about the good teams.

(01:31:42):
We disproportionately talk about the really good teams. I do
have great relationships with coaches, truth be told, I'm probably
more a fan of coaches than I am of teams themselves.
But I love the sport. I love stormchasing. We do
it a lot in the spring. There's one movie post
on this entire set, and it's the Twister movie poster.

(01:32:03):
I just got married to a wonderful young lady named
Savannah who has, believe it or not, better stories about
college football than I do, because she worked in college
football everywhere from Southern Miss and Jones Community College to
LSU to Ole Miss to Alabama. So I, look, I
just talk about it as a former fan. Man, if

(01:32:23):
she ever gets her show, probably in trouble. But if
she ever gets her show, man the stories that she
could tell. And look, I want to be college football
commissioner as well. I think I have some great ideas.
I think we can slowly turn this from a running
joke to a serious campaign. And I'm still waiting for
the twenty twenty eight presidential field to take shape. But

(01:32:45):
whichever candidate makes this a central part of their platform
is probably going to get my backing. That's how we
play politics on the show. Any presidential candidate that wants
to include making me college football commissioner, I'm probably tossing
my support your way. We are happy to have you
on board for this season. We are looking forward to it.
We got a million irons in the fire, and it's

(01:33:05):
all because of you. So I appreciate you. Guys. I
tell you a lot, but it's still more than you
could ever know. And all of us here echo that sentiment.
I just happened to be the one talking to the microphone. Bradley,
that's your outcut. All right, good show tonight. We got
to go home and eat. We were afraid this is
gonna last two hours. So I think I got us
out here as expeditiously as I could. For director Bradley,

(01:33:25):
For a producer Jesse, I'm Josh Pate. Take care, have
a great start to your week, and God bless. Sign

(01:33:47):
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