July 6, 2025 • 56 mins
Josh Pate’s College Football Show Ep 643 features Josh Pate discussing potential chaos scenarios this season. Could the Big Ten become the SEC in a sense of no teams like Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan, or Penn State emerging as elite? Could the league get a team left out like Alabama last season? What are the biggest lies we hear in College Football? Tonight we expose them…again. Bold prediction season has returned with you calling your shot. Which teams will be better and which teams will be worse this year than they were in 2024? Tonight we take a look at Ole Miss, SMU, Nebraska, and Iowa State. Josh also takes a look at who the face of sports media is in 2025. All that plus the truth about Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
Home training. Home training is important. So let me tell
you how I was raised, and in this case, I
am telling you how to raise your kids. Do whatever
you want to in the spring, do whatever you want
to pre July fourth. But once we come off of
Independence Day, off of the Nathan's Famous Hot Dog eating contest,
it is time to focus on what's important and what's important,
(00:41):
and I have an entire stock of it in my
hand is college football. We are high a top, a
radiant downtown Nashville, Tennessee, jam packed as we always are
on this Sunday, July sixth, the Year of Our Lord,
twenty twenty five, proudly brought to you by Academy Sports
and Outdoors. You hear the TikTok, not the app the
actual sound of a clock because a lot of you
(01:03):
are on it. A lot of teams are on the
clock this year. Some of you just have competitive pressure,
some of you outright need to win to keep your jobs.
Everyone's got to a certain extent. But I feel like
we got about i'd say five or six teams that
really feel like they're on the clock this year. I
feel like we've got to talk about weaknesses amongst some
of the Contenders. We did that the other night. We
(01:24):
did it Tuesday night. We're gonna do it again tonight.
We got to tell the truth about Marcus Freeman on
the show tonight. Someone asked me about influences on me. Yeah,
of all people, we got that, we got bold predictions.
It rolls on and on and on in July, as
we get ever closer to kick off, they're watching us
in Corpus Christi, Texas, Noonan Georgia, Santa Rosa, California, Mobile, Alabama.
(01:46):
Thank you guys so so much. I told you weird schedule.
We're gonna have another weird schedule coming up this week.
Just there's a lot of stuff moving around. It'll make
sense very very soon. But I I'm just looking see
I'm trying to tell you, but I can't hand over
the mouth right now, and it happens to be my own.
But bear with us. We're trying to keep as much
(02:08):
normalcy around here as possible. Again, let me reiterate all
good things. Let's dive into the show tonight. Okay. I
feel like some teams are really on the clock this year,
not all of them, Like, oh you better win, Are
you gonna lose your job? Although some of these are
maybe the first one who knows, But I feel like
some of these teams are just on the clock, and
I wanted to talk about some of these tonight. So
(02:28):
like Auburn, I really feel like Auburn is on the
clock this year. I really feel like Hugh Freeze got there.
And to Auburn fans credit, I thought they had as
much patience as any fan base would have with a
head coach in like major college football SEC football, because
they understood the cupboard was sort of bear. Hugh Freeze
(02:51):
did not inherit some turnkey, ready made winner. He didn't
get what Kaylin Debor got handed to him. He didn't
get what Ryan Day got handed to him. So there
was a lot of understanding. Even in year two, still
some understanding. This is year three and you've got to win.
You've got to win. They went six and seven first year,
five and seven, second year. They got to win this year,
(03:13):
and it's just a roll of the dice on Jackson Arnold.
That's the long and short of it. They're over underwent
total seven and a half. They've got to go over that.
If they don't what are you selling? I mean, if
they don't like what you're trying to package a vision.
That's what they've been trying to do, selling kids on
what will happen come be a part of it. But
(03:34):
three years of seven wins or less, who knows what
this year holds. They got to get it done. Man.
And then on the total opposite end of the spectrum,
I think is Penn State Pence. There's no job security
pressure on James Franklin. Anyone who suggests otherwise outside their mind.
James Franklin and Penn State have a unique situation here
(03:56):
in that the dominoes have fallen into play in such
a way that Penn State, despite the fact that they
still really haven't gotten over the big game hump. They
still haven't won the Big ten lately. They won in
the playoff last year, but they beat two teams that
candidly they should have beaten, and then went down again
when they sort of met their match, met their equal.
(04:17):
Despite the fact that they haven't really accomplished any of
those or cleared any of those hurdles that are put
in their way, and the criticisms that are thrown at them,
despite all that, they're in a position to be considered
a national title favorite. This year, and yet there's some
hesitation out there for people to buy into the idea
that they could ever do that because they haven't. One
of the big rules on our show, in fact, we
(04:38):
told the lies of college football the other night, biggest
lies in the sport. One of them is people take
have not to mean cannot. James Franklin has not won
a title. To me, that's where the period goes. But
for some people the sentence continues because he has not won,
he will not win, he cannot win. Well, I don't
know if that's true, but that's what you're on the
(05:00):
clock for. You can't just be a good, solid team
this year. I don't know how else to put it.
You can't just sort of be in contention but fall
short against Oregon and Ohio State, be just on the
outside looking in of the Big Ten championship, probably still
make the playoff, but not really do anything in the playoff.
They've got to do more than that. I don't know
(05:21):
if that means go win a national title or it's
a failure. I don't know if I go that far,
but I think you'd know it. Like if Penn State,
for example, if they were to beat Oregon, go play
a dog fight down to the wire game against Ohio
State and lose, but then they beat them in the
rematch in Indianapolis. And then they go and they go
to the national title game. Even if they don't win it.
(05:43):
That's a big season. That is a season above and
beyond anything James Franklin has done in a long time.
I would take that. That's what they're on the clock
to do. At the very least. Bama's the same way. Now.
Anyone who tells you Caylin de Boor would have a
lot of job security pressure if he only won nine games, again,
they're wrong. They're wrong, But that wouldn't stop a lot
(06:03):
of people from yelling it. They yelled at about Ryan
Day last year, fed up beating Michigan, he ought to
be out of here. Well, he wouldn't have been fired,
but that didn't stop people from yelling it. So if
Kaylen Deboor only wins nine, if he barely misses out
on the playoff, again, they'd yell it. That's not the
kind of on the clock I'm talking about. The kind
of on the clock I'm talking about is no one
matters or no one cares. Rather that it took you
(06:26):
a second to find your footing. In year one, we
saw the same thing you saw. We saw guys like
Caleb downs Lee via the portal. We saw the quarterback
position be you know, way way up and down, kind
of schizophrenic in production. Last year, your results were tied
to that you had what you had in year one.
He's recruited a couple of really good classes. I mean
(06:47):
they're on a roll. They've been on a role in
recruiting this cycle. They didn't have any guys leave for
the portal this past cycle. Like, there are a lot
of indicators pointing up. Now, the results on the field
need to bear that out. And this is probably like
the least on the clock team out of the what's
six I'm talking about. But yet Bama fans will tell
you he's got everything he needs. It's not like Saban
(07:10):
hung on five years too long and left the cupboard
empty and you had to rebuild it from scratch. He
left and left you a ton of athletes, And I mean,
program's never been in a better place, and you need
to win. If it takes you a year, okay, but
you need to win. That's fair. I don't even think
the boor things. That's unfair. That's fair. At Clemson, CLI
(07:31):
Dabbo's as rock solid as it gets in terms of
job security. This team's on the clock. Kind of like
Penn State. This Clemson team is on the clock because
they've got a unique opportunity to do something they haven't
done in a few years. It feels like forever ago
now that we looked at Clemson and said, yeah, I
(07:52):
could pick that team to win the national title. But
I'm telling you, I guess I need to look over here.
I'm telling you I would pick this Clemson team to
be a favorite to win a national championship. I'm not
ready to make the actual prediction yet, but I could
see that coming out of my mouth in a couple
of months. So it's not title or bust. But they
(08:12):
do need to put themselves in position. They need to
climb high enough on the ladder where the belt is
within reach and at that point you reach and if
you grab it, you grab it. If you don't, at
least you put yourself within reach. At the very least,
this team has to put itself within reach this year.
Not that it would be the end of the world. See,
there's categories to this, there's layers to this. Dabo's fine,
(08:34):
Clemson's fine if they don't win, if they were to
go nine to three this year, they're fine. It's just
that the window for this team and maybe the window
for this program closed, because I'm not so sure that
it's just reload, reload, reload, reload for Clemson right now.
Could be wrong about that, but it doesn't feel that
way to me. It feels like they've built towards this
year for a few years now. Of the wide receiver
(08:57):
positions there NFL guys that ever, level of the defense.
I really just if you hear this, you hear that
on the podcast, that's how Clemson used to play defense.
And I mean I go back and watch that Louisville
game last year. That is not the way they played defense. Well,
you go hire Tom Allen, you hope to rectify that.
You got your quarterback there, you got your offensive coordinator again,
(09:18):
best wide receiver room you've had in a long time.
So I think they're on the clock competitively. Oklahoma's a
different story now. Oklahoma is very much Brent Venables and
Oklahoma have to win this year or they could be
looking for a new head coach. And I think that's fair.
I think it's very fair. I don't know how you
say otherwise. I mean, he's had three years now, this
(09:41):
will be his fourth year. There's no sanctions there. There
have been some questionable hires, and then to their credit,
they hit the dump button. And now at offensive coordinator,
you go and you get our buckle and his quarterback
from Washington State, and that's who you've hitched your wagon to.
You don't get to screw up more coordinator hires at
(10:01):
this level. You just don't get to do it. The
states are too high, the pay is too high. All
of that's fair. It'd be unfair if someone else screwed
everything up and then you tossed it in Brenton Venable's
lap and said, hey, I know we just made a
mess in your lap there, but you still gotta win
or else it's all gonna be on you. That's not
what happened. That's not what happened here. So this is
(10:22):
totally fair. They've recruited good athletes there. They're gonna be good. Defensively,
they've elevated every year since he's been there. I got
a little doubt about that. Offensive line's got to be
way better. Quarterback positions got to be way better. Offensive coordinator,
the offensive product has got to be way better. They
got a tough schedule to face. I don't think anyone
(10:43):
is saying playoff or bust, but they better be noticeably
improved this year. I think they will be, but they
better be. They're on the clock for that and USC
same way. None of this stuff is unreasonable. Lincoln Riley
left Oklahoma several years ago for USC now and he's
been out there and their record has regressed every year.
And that's reality. That's not an opinion, that's reality. Now
(11:08):
its opinion when you talk about the wise, but it's
reality that it's happened. Okay, So what are we asking, Well,
we're asking for the defensive coordinator higher you made two
years ago now to continue to pay off, and I
think it will. I don't have any doubt about that.
You got to be better on the lines of scrimmage.
You are a quarterback guy, so my ava's got to
(11:30):
give us good quarterback play. We got to be able
to win games in a variety of different ways. And
to be honest, USC ought to be able to score
forty five if they need to, but they ought to
be able to hold someone under twenty if they need to.
That's how you. I mean, that's the kind of team
you're gonna have to have to win anyway in major
college football. What were they six and six I think
(11:53):
in the regular season last year. So the one possession stuff,
it's just got to be better, got to better. This
isn't when the Big ten or you're out. I don't
even know if it's make the playoff or you're out.
It's not that. I fact, it's not that. I know
it's not that. But they are very much on the
clock to look a whole lot better than they did.
That's the reality. And I think it's completely fair. It's
(12:14):
his program. It's one hundred percent his program. USC football
is a total reflection of the thumb print of Lincoln Riley.
Now we're brought to you by Academy Sports and Outdoors.
They are our friends, they are our presenting partner. You
can get there in person, and if you can, you
should get there in person. I know a lot of
you probably visited them over the past week because a
(12:36):
lot of us have been outdoors and you can get
pretty much everything you need. I know, I get testimonials.
I'd say ten times a day minimum about people going
to academy. Hey, you were right. I didn't know I
could get this there. Well why not? I told you
you could? Now. The other sad testimonial I get is
I don't have an academy near me that you do
(12:56):
have Internet near you. Okay, we'll work to rectify the
brick and mortar situation. But in the meantime, you got
academy dot Com right there at your disposal and friends, friends,
you need their stuff anyway. You're gonna buy grilling equipment,
You're gonna buy clothes, You're gonna buy bats and balls.
You're gonna buy all that stuff anyway, buy it at
(13:16):
academy and help the show in the process. Let's continue, everybody.
Everybody can talk about strengths. What about weaknesses? All these
teams you see at FanDuel in the top ten, you
know the odds to win their conferences, compete for the
national title this year. Well, everyone knows the strengths. What
are some of the weaknesses of these teams. Texas is
(13:38):
way up there. I mean, Texas is one of the
favorites in the odds market right now to win the SEC,
to win the whole thing. So what are the potential questions.
Let's not even use weaknesses, let's just unknowns, questions where
could it go wrong. Everyone's gonna talk about Arch Honestly,
we've talked about him so much beyond the quart position.
(14:01):
Just backfilling on the lines of scrimmage at Texas, especially
on the defensive line, specifically, specifically the interior there. The
edge is fine, man, they'll have one of, if not
the best pass rushes in the country. But this is
two years in a row. Now you're having to go
on the interior that defensive line because you're so good.
(14:21):
You're sending guys off to the NFL and they have
got to have portal guys hit. They're counting on them
to start. Then on the other side on the offensive line,
you lost four guys with forty plus starts. But again,
this is Texas. They just stack big bodies. So it's
not automatically a weakness if you're losing a bunch of guys.
In fact, it's a sign that you're developing and recruiting right,
(14:42):
that you're losing a bunch of guys. But all that
plus a first year starter at quarterback, that's not a weakness,
but it is very much a question, And unlike some teams,
they don't get to ease into their schedule. They play
Ohio State to start the year. What about Oregon? The
Oregon Ducks won the Big Ten last year, they were
the number one overall seed in the playoff. The quarterback
(15:04):
they did it with is gone. They got a portal,
a new one in portal guy at running back, portal
at wide receiver, portal at tight end. Those guys are gone,
well some of them are portal, but those guys, those
difference makers are gone. And Evan Stewart's hurt, and you
just wonder is everything going to fall into place? They
had to make big moves on the offensive line, had
(15:27):
to go get two tackles and one of them will
play tackle, maybe one of them will be interior. But
three of their five offensive line starters are going to
be from the portal and go back to the wide
receiver position for a second without Evan Stewart, who's there
bona fide wide receiver one. Maybe they figure that out
in camp. Maybe it's a situation where you look and
they got four guys over five hundred receiving yards, but
(15:50):
no one with a thousand or maybe a guy just
clearly emerges. But the point is there is a lot
of unknown there. There are a lot of questions. I
got no problem blindly believing in Oregon, but now doesn't
mean there aren't questions there. What about Miami? Go as
far away from Eugene as we could possibly get, Carson Beck? Okay,
so the help thing will find out. We'll find out
(16:13):
like he's been throwing for a while, so we're led
to believe he's healthy physically mentally. This guy thought he
was going to be playing in the NFL this time
last year. This guy was the favorite to win the
Heisman Trophy at Georgia. This time last year, he didn't
win the Heisman. It didn't work out at Georgia. He's
in Miami now. Had a lot of off the field
(16:34):
headlines about him. Where's his head at? Because if it's
in the game, he can do what cam Or did
last year. He can go down there and make a
new name for himself, vault himself right back up the
draft board. He could do all those things. He can do,
all those things. Will he do all those things? And
then beyond that, who's he throwing the ball to? They lost?
(16:55):
I think their top half dozen pass catchers from last year.
Who's he throwing the ball to? Those portal guys have
to hit. They got to hit. And then on the
other side, the defensive backfield specifically, they were so bad
at giving up explosive plays last year. They got Corey
Heatherman from Minnesota as their new defensive coordinator. Miami is
(17:17):
another team if you look at their schedule that does
not get to dip their toe into the season. It
is boom Notre Dame week one. They got U or
USF in Week three, that's not easy, and then boom
Florida in Town week four, at Florida State. Week five, Louisville.
There's a bye week in between the Florida and Florida
(17:38):
State games, but it's not a backloaded schedule. And so
whatever we're asking here, they've got to have those answered.
They got several losable games in the first month of
the season, so they got to have those answered. And also,
I want to go to the Big twelve for a second.
Texas Tech on a lot of people's radars, Texas on
mine too, Texas Tech. The general question there, the general
(18:04):
unknown there is there's just so much new. This team
could be all world this year, or it could be
really really wobbly out of the gate, because you know,
there's a difference in a bunch of individuals and a team.
And we've seen one time in the portal era a
team get put together that was playoff caliber. It was
(18:24):
Florida State a couple of years ago. They just missed out,
but if it was a twelve team playoff, they would
have been in. Clearly, Texas Tech is trying to do that,
and I just find it so fascinating that they're going
to go up against teams like Arizona State, which is,
you know, a lot of cohesion, a lot of returning production.
Kansas State's kind of that way, like Iowa State, all
(18:45):
these other Big twelve schools, they sort of recruit their developmental.
They're not really heavy on portal guys, and if they are,
it's mainly to provide depth over going and getting proven starters.
In Texas Tech did the complete opposite, and they allowed
thirty five plus eight times last year. So defensively they
got to get better, they got new coordinators on both
(19:06):
sides of the ball, and yet they're right there in
the preseason odds to win the Big Twelve. They got
an over under win total of eight and a half.
There's a lot expected out in Lubbock. I am included
in that, but there's also a lot of unknown. That's
why God makes you play the games. I guess. Moving along,
Moving along, a third show in a row. I do
(19:27):
want to give credit to our friend cream Soda at
ZVA of course our favorite zero sugar soda here. Cream
Soda took it personal. I mean, I've never seen since
Michael Jordan himself, I've never seen something taken as personal
as as cream Soda Zvia took our sudden love affair
for orange creamsickle ZVA. Not that I'm not still consuming it,
(19:51):
but I mean, cream soda has dominated the show, I
think it's safe to say over the past couple of weeks.
So it's good to see you back. And it's competition.
We foster an atmosphere of competition around here, and that
(20:12):
includes our drink partner. We had a question about Ryan
Day that at first I thought was crazy. In fact,
there's the word there. Tommy from Akron hit me up.
He said, Am I crazy to think that there's still
a lot of pressure on Ryan Day because of the
Michigan losing streak. No, no, no, you're not crazy at all.
(20:38):
This is where college football is over here and any
other sport is over there. As a concept, if you
win a championship, a national championship, in any other sport,
the word pressure is not even in the galaxy of
conversation about you the following year, EPETE, maybe a complacency,
(21:04):
reload or rebuild. No, one's talking pressure, and we're not
talking job security pressure with Ryan Day or anything like that.
But I believe rivalry games. I believe rivalries are the
most important part of college football. I believe beating Michigan
is the most important role that you have as the
(21:25):
head coach at Ohio State, above winning the conference, above
winning national titles. This is my personal worldview in college athletics.
My personal college football worldview is that if you're the
head coach at Ohio State, your job's to beat Michigan,
and then the Big Ten can be one, and then
the national title can be one in that order. But
beating Michigan's number one, and he hadn't done it in
(21:46):
several years now. So if you're asking me, oh, is
there pressure on him, Absolutely, there's pressure on him. I
don't care if they won the national title by one
hundred last year. That's almost like its own conversation. The
national title pick sure is its own conversation. The Michigan
game is a season. It is its own season. I'd
say the same thing if the head coach at Michigan
(22:09):
had lost to Ryan Day three years or four years
in a row, going on half a decade in a row.
I don't care what else you've done. You have failed
several times consecutively in your most important role. And I
think he's one of the best in the game. Like
I overflow with respect for Ryan Day, overflow, I could
(22:32):
not think any more highly of the guy. But I'm
not saying anything he doesn't know. In fact, I think
Ryan Day, Kirby Smart and Ryan Day are two of
the most brutally honest coaches that we ever sit down
with when it comes to their assessment of their job,
their assessment of their program. Dude, you don't even have
to say this to Ryan Day. He'll say it for you.
(22:52):
He knows he knows the deal about being the head
coach at Ohio State. So my point in saying this
would make no sense to anyone else is if you
were the head coach of the New England Patriots or whatnot.
It doesn't matter how many times you lose to the
Jets in a row. If you're winning the AFC, like
if you're playing for or winning a Super Bowl, now
(23:15):
one's talking about your record versus the Jets. That's cause
the NFL is not college football. In college football, they're
just different compartments. They don't even have to touch each other,
like they don't have to overlap. You can go win
a national title and have still failed in your most
important role as the head coach somewhere. If that somewhere
is a place like Ohio State. So I don't care
(23:39):
if that doesn't make sense to anyone else. And I'm
not one of these crazy people, well it's wrong for
me to cast dispersions. I'm not one of these people
who was ever yelling you got to get him out
of there. If you don't beat Michigan, you got to
get him out of there. I wasn't that last year.
I was not that. I thought it was a little
bit off the rails. But at the same time, there's
(24:02):
no one who places more of a premium on winning
rivalry games than me. I literally think it's the most
important thing that you can do as a head coach.
I literally prioritize it above winning the conference in the
national title. That's how imperative it is to me that
you win rivalry games. So to a casual college football fan,
(24:22):
to an agnostic sports fan who just like looks at
college football from afar, that will sound crazy. But that's okay.
They don't understand this world. That's fine. I don't ever
try and go in the world of tennis and ask, wait,
why is the scoring fifteen thirty forty? What does love mean?
That doesn't make any sense to me. Well, that's okay.
(24:44):
It may be their sport's not for me. Maybe this
sport's not for you if it makes no sense to
you that there could still be a lot of pressure
on Ryan Day even after you just won a national championship.
But I'll tell you who it does make sense to
Ryan Day. I bet you it makes sense to him.
They're watching us an Elk Grove, California, Tulsa, Oklahoma, and Bloomington, Indiana.
We appreciate everyone for being tuned in. It looks like
(25:07):
I just wanted their towns up. No, I wanted the
post it note up, the Town's just happened to be there. Oh,
this is a fun question. Someone asked Patrick from West Newbury, Massachusetts.
I would assume up there they would say West Newbury.
But I think that's crazy, just like Strawberry is crazy. No, no, no,
And don't even get me started on Caraenmel versus Carmel. Anyway,
(25:29):
Patrick said, who were some of your influences in terms
of getting into college football media. I don't hear anyone
like you, so I'm curious. I hope you don't hear
anyone like me. It's probably in everyone's best interest. Patrick, No,
So I could answer this two ways. There were people
(25:52):
when I was a kid that I heard outside of
the boundaries of college media or even in sports media
that always struck me as I got a little bit older,
I always thought Colin Cowherd when he first got to
ESPN radio, really set a tone that was different than
(26:12):
anything else I had ever heard. It was the first
time I ever started listening to sports talk radio in
a consistent manner. It connected with me. I mean, he
was the only one really talking college football at a
national level, so that's probably why it connected with me.
But I also remember, just like the theater of the
mind aspect that he was so good at the community
(26:35):
building that he was really good at So I mean,
that guy got me through several early morning shifts at
the warehouse. He was my bridge between unloading the Southeastern
Freight truck stocking the shelves. Finally we got to our
lunch break about the time he hands it off to
the early afternoon show. But then as it got real
(26:57):
to me that maybe I'll be able to do this
for a living, or or maybe I at least want
to roll the dice. I want to bet on myself.
I want to take a shot. There were two shows
that were already in the space that I was really
paying attention to. I've talked about them before. One of
them that I used to listen to I still listen to,
but I listened to religiously was the solid Verbal with
(27:18):
Tyholde Brandt and Dan Rubinstein, and those guys were doing
what I wanted to do. They weren't necessarily like working
for any big corporation, any big media company. It was
their show. It was unique under anything else in the space.
There wasn't a lot of other options in the space
yet that would soon change. But I was heavily influenced
(27:40):
by those guys, not so much stylistically, like I knew
kind of I've got my way that I'd like to
do it. I think the things I think, I talk,
the way I talk, all that stuff. But I listened
to them and I would. At the time, I was
don't let Savannah stay to hear this. But I was
dating a girl who lived up in Atlanta. I was
still down in Columbus, so I had a you know,
(28:01):
an hour and a half commute each way if I
was going to go see her. So that's when I
would listen to a solid verbal and I just, man,
you feel like you know those guys and you've never
met them. And I remember thinking to myself, that's what
you have to establish. I feel like I've got a
relationship with these two dudes. I've never met them. I
don't even know what they look like. At the time,
(28:22):
I didn't, and so that influenced me, and the guys
at college football Nerds influenced me, both of whom were
at the wedding last month. What a you know, a
circular not quite circle of life. That's not what they
meant at all in the Lion King, but it was
kind of a full circle moment, I guess, but I
(28:43):
remember talking to them. I was looking at their YouTube
channel back then. I was thinking, man, dude, if we
could ever get like a fraction of the subscribers they have.
But more than that, I was thinking, these guys are
talking math in a way that I don't think I
could ever talk. But it makes sense to me. And
that influenced me because I remember, man, most of the
stat type stuff, most of the data based stuff, it
(29:06):
loses me in three nanoseconds. I don't have the attention
span for it. Those guys were really good at it,
and you know, when you would comment on their channel,
they would comment back, which is something I still try
and do as much as I can. But those two,
it's four guys, but those four, they heavily influenced me.
They're both doing their stuff today, like I highly recommend
(29:26):
Solid Verbal and college football nerds. You could do me
a big favor if you go check both of their
shows out. All right, we have a very very important
exercise that we've been doing on the show. I want
to continue it tonight. We've been doing this exercise for
a little while where we look at teams and we
look at the record from last year and we just
(29:47):
got to call our shot. Now, throw your dart at
the board. Are there going to be better this year
or worse this year than they were last year? I
want to start with Ole Miss tonight. Ole Miss was
nine and three last year. They're over unders eight and
a half. If you're interested, nine and three last year
should have made the playoffs. It's their fault they didn't.
I think they'll be worse this year. If I had
(30:08):
to guess record wise, I think Old Miss may fall
off a game compared to what they did last year.
I think they'll still be good to excellent offensively. I'm
a big believer in Austin Simmons. There's nothing you need
to sell me on there. The defense is a pretty
big question mark for me. They're gonna have regression. We
(30:29):
talked about that in the previous show. There will be regression,
it's how much does it fall off. I don't think
that portal class had the same pop that it did
a cycle before, and so because of that, I look
at games like the LSU game going to Georgia and
Oklahoma back to back South Carolina after that, there's no
(30:50):
buy that gets at Georgia at Oklahoma South Carolina. They
got Florida late in the year. I'm asking myself, could
they lose four of those games? I think they could.
So it's not something I'm betting on. I don't feel
that strongly about it. But I slightly lean worse than
nine and three, and I hope that's not the case,
because at that point, you ask, man, did almost miss
(31:12):
their best shot to do something in the playoff by
missing it entirely next up SMU eleven and one last year,
you gotta go worse. I mean, just we're asking what's
more likely. It's far more likely they're worse. They got
a tougher schedule this year than they did last year.
(31:32):
We were talking about them, I mean, we were talking
about them as being the prime sleeper contender merely because
of schedule. We almost labeled them that sight unseen because
of how fortuitous their schedule set up was last year.
So three of the top four wide receivers are gone.
Schedule gets a little bit tougher. Defensive tackle question, edge question.
(31:56):
They had to go to the portal. Not that they're
the only ones who had to do this, but they
had to go the portal to backfield. Defensively, they had
a top ten rush defense last year. Are they just
gonna do that again? So if they go ten and two,
I'm right Like they could go ten and two, they
could be playing for the conference title again and I'd
be right. So I'm gonna go worse for SMU. For Nebraska,
(32:19):
this is important. So I'm gonna wait Compton up William Nebraska.
I am ready to predict. I am ready to back
with my own money that Nebraska will be better than
six and six this year. Okay, it's Matt rule. It's
year three. You know the science behind the rule three,
(32:40):
The rule of three tam trademark. That's mine. Now, Dylan
Riyola with better options, That's what I'm thinking about now.
I don't love that Tony White's gone. I just need
him to hold the rope defensively. Again, We're not trying
to go ten and two or eleven and one here.
I'm trying to figure out, how does Nebraska win eight games?
(33:01):
Seven or eight games? That's where they should be at
least this year. If you look at the schedule, as
many will start to do this time of year, when
do they play Ohio State? Oh, they don't well, let
me see, where's Oregon here? Oh? Oh, Oregon's not there. Well,
where's the tough road games? Michigan? No, they get them
at home. Oh man, that trip to USC is going
to be tough. Oh wait, they get USC at home
(33:22):
as well. Dude, No one wants to go to Iowa
at the end of the year. Oh Iowa comes there,
they got a game at Penn State elsewhere. Where's the
road trip that I'm supposed to be scared of? So,
you know what, they better win more than six games.
They're over under win totals. What seven and a half? Yeah,
they do. Will Compton and Matt Rule better not screw
(33:43):
this up like it's got to happen. It's got I've
been accused of Nebraska slander for, you know, predicting anything
less than a Big ten championship game appearance. No, No,
not quite that bullish yet. But they gotta they gotta
do better than six and six now, swear in that
rough portion of the country. Are my Iowa State Cyclones
(34:08):
Big twelve runners up? Last year? Things just didn't go
our way in the conference title game. Shame on you,
Kenny Dillingham. They went ten to two last year. There
is not a bone in my body that's about to
publicly state that Iowa State will be worse than that
this year. I don't care what you put in front
of me. I will plug my ears with both index
fingers and shout la la la. I can't hear you
(34:30):
as long as it takes, or until I lose my voice.
I'm team rock Obeck all day. Quarterback still there, head coach,
still there, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator still there. Top third
of the country in returning production. It's just a stat
we're thrown around now. It is a navigable schedule. There's
(34:51):
no Texas Tech on there. There's no Baylor, there's no Utah.
They got Iowa at home. Candidly, I think they do
better in their house. But whatever, they get Arizona State
at home, bringing Young's at home again, that's not a
tough road slate. So ten and two I could see it.
I could see and you know what, maybe eleven and
one is not out of the realm of possibility. But
(35:14):
as we all know, Iowa State has now established themselves
as a perennial contender. Okay, So nowadays and aims we
talk about nine or ten when that's the floor. Matt
Campbell will appreciate this. They love expectations up there. They
love it. Look the expectation that's okay to have any
(35:34):
time of year's Quick Trip's going to be there for you.
They welcome that. Okay, you expect them to have cold
brew on tap, they welcome that. There's never any complacency.
They're not closing. Okay, the pumps will work, the cold
brew on tap will work. And if it doesn't, I
don't want to be held responsible. But I'm pretty sure
it'll work. And they'll have food in there, and they'll
have snacks in there, and you know what else they'll have.
(35:56):
They'll have our back. We need to go on the
road for a tour of this far. They got us.
We just went to what sixteen places this spring on
the Speakers series tour. They had us. They're the exclusive
fuel provider of pet State. This university is entirely fueled
by Quick Trip in every way imaginable. So thank you
(36:17):
Quick Trip. Let's continue question season. It's big question season,
you know in college football. And I got a question
tonight from one of you that I've chosen to answer.
One of you said, Hey, I got the biggest question
for you this year how many SEC and Big ten
(36:37):
teams will make the playoff. This was the hot topic
of conversation around Halloween and beyond last year and just
spit on myself. So last year it was seven seven
of them made it. There's not a lot of fluctuation here,
Like seven is probably the baseline. One of them is
(36:58):
probably gonna have four, the other one's gonna have at
least three. That's probably the way this goes. But the
thing about it is it's gonna be like at least seven.
Nine is the max because we still got twelve teams
this year, and the ACC's gotta have one. The Big
ten in the SEC, all right, they'll have several, but
(37:19):
the ACC's got to have one, the Big twelve's got
to have one, the G five's got to have one.
Nine is the most you can get, and if Notre
Dame doesn't make it in then you can get nine.
It's most likely they get eight, Like I think, that's
how much they get in or how many they get in.
So in the odds to make the playoff, nine of
(37:40):
the top thirteen are from the Big ten or the SEC. Yes,
of course they're gonna load up the odds board, but
they're also gonna play each other, so they're gonna knock
a lot of each other out. But the question here
is okay, well, how many of them are good enough?
And then the follow up is twofold? I think is
the follow up that I don't really know the answer
(38:01):
to question number one. Did SMU's performance last year when
they got benefit of the doubt and they got put
in the playoff and then got smoked on the road
at Penn State? Does that sway the opinion making. My
personal opinion is SMU deserved to be in the playoff
(38:22):
over Alabama, so I agreed with the decision. I expected
them to lose handedly to Penn State. I didn't get anything.
I didn't expect they could lose by one hundred and
it doesn't change whether they should or shouldn't have been
placed in. Your body of work is what determines whether
you get placed in not. We're going to put you
in and then see if you deserved it by what
you do after the fact. That's not part of your resume.
(38:45):
But I could see some people thinking along those lines,
maybe even some committee members, And by that I mean,
if we do have another ab scenario, where there's a
Big ten or an SEC team that's maybe three losses
versus an SMU whoever that is. This year, I could
see a lot of people in the media making a
(39:06):
bad faith argument that, you know, big boys should be
in over Cinderella over here. And then part B is
they've got that new strength of schedule and strength of
record metric and criteria that they're going to insert into
the selection process. Does that tilt the odds in the
favor of an extra team from the SEC and extra
(39:28):
team from the Big ten? I think it will. My
guess is they're going to have eight in this year.
Could be five and three, could be four and four, whatever,
but I think they'll have eight in. Let's move it
merrily along, nice brisk pace tonight. I like where we're at.
Like where we're at. We were two shows ago. We
did like a ninety minute show in June somehow, So
(39:52):
we've been trying to tell the truth on a lot
of head coaches, and I wanted to tell the truth
about Marcus Freeman tonight. This have worked out any better
for Notre Dame. We should have put the Notre Dame
helmet on the sets right over there. I'm looking at
it right now, could this have worked out any better
for Notre Dame? Remember a couple of years ago, Brian Kelly,
he had been there for a long time, He's what
(40:14):
the all time winning his head coach in Notre Dame history,
and he didn't get fired. He chose to leave. He
chose to leave. It hurt some people's feelings. It didn't
hurt everybody's feelings, but they had. As it turns out,
his backfill already in house. Marcus Freeman was already there,
and so Marcus Freeman does not go with him. Marcus
(40:36):
Freeman stays. Marcus Freeman becomes the head coach at Notre
Dame has never been a head coach before, So like
Ohio State and like Georgia and like Oklahoma recently, at
that point, Notre Dame's gonna roll the dice on a
first time head coach, and Marcus Freeman takes the job.
(40:59):
And now three years later, I think we can definitively
look at Notre Dame football and say they're in a
better spot than where Brian Kelly had him. And I
doubted that would happen, by the way, Like if you
told me that was gonna happen. I would have said,
all right, I need to see it. I guess it's
not impossible, but I'm going to need to see that. Well,
you know what, I've seen it, and he's been there
(41:20):
three years, and you you should still be seeing a
sharp learning curve. Guy's in his late thirties. Okay, that
guy at a major program should be showing obvious flaws
still And you know what, you could throw out the
martial laws, the Northern Illinois loss. It's not like they
(41:41):
haven't been there. What I'm saying is it should be glaring. Really,
if history has taught us anything, it should be glaring
when you take a first time head coach and give
him a major job. Period. But he's been a first
time head coach being given a major job in the
most tumultuous era in the history of college football. And
(42:01):
there've been bumps on the road. But the dude played
for a national championship last year. And need I remind
you they came into the season, we thought their offensive
line would be their weakness, and not only was it not,
they got injured along the way on the offensive line
and still just this was the biggest testament to Marcus Freeman.
(42:25):
The overall aura, the vibe, the identity of the team
almost made it feel like it didn't matter how badly
they got banged up. I'm watching Notre Dame and at
a certain point last year, you look and you say, oh,
another lineman went down. It's notre name. They'll just find
a way. That is a place few programs rarely get to.
(42:47):
But if you do get there, that's the best testament
that you can give to a head coach, cause that
means head coach has done his job. What is his job?
Marcus Freeman's not in the face of every offensive lineman
in the weight room every day, butis strength and conditioning
staff that he hired. Is Marcus Freeman's not in the
face of those guys on the field, but his offensive
line and that staff that coaches his offensive line. They
(43:10):
are the development aspect, the psychological aspect, that the mental
and physical, every compartment that he's in charge of overseeing
has been perfected enough to where that's the result that
it's bearing. Okay, So then you ask yourself, well, where
(43:32):
do they go from here? I think he's in an
interesting spot right now. I think the truth is their
recruiting has trended up, and it's trended up after they
lost the general manager. This is kind of a big
thing people behind the scenes have been talking about in
college football. Chad Bowden went to USC, it was a
huge get for USC. USC recruiting has seen a big uptick,
(43:55):
and the thinking was, well, USC's gain has to be
Notre Dame's life. Maybe it was, Maybe it wasn't. The
point is you look at Notre Dame and if you're
looking for the lingering effects, the after effects of that,
they're nowhere to be found. Because as good as USC
is doing, Notre Dame's killing it too. Notre Dame's on
(44:15):
the path to maybe putting together the best class that
Freeman's put together there. So again, what you're talking about
is you're talking about the very early indicators of you know,
what great coaches have done in the past. What you've
seen with great coaches is they build such a machine
that the parts are interchangeable. You don't want to talk
(44:37):
about people like that because the program's only as good
as the people. But if you've got a strong program,
it attracts the right people. So like one of the
right people leaves, another of the right people comes right
there in to replace him or her or whatever the
case may be. Point being again, most programs never get
to that level. And here's what's crazy about that. You
(44:59):
could look in the past, you say, man like Nick
Saban is the tailor made example of that. Yeah, yes,
Sabin did that at Bama. You know what else is
true about Nick Saban. Freeman's thirty nine years old. When
Nick Saban was thirty nine years old, he was a
decade away from taking the LSU job. So they're doing it.
(45:19):
I mean, Marcus Freeman's starting to do this at a
completely different juncture of his life than Nick Saban ever
thought about doing it. Sabin was at Toledo when he
was thirty nine years old. Just to give you an
idea of sort of how different the trajectory is for
Marcus Freeman. Like some other Dan Lannings this age, like
a lot of other guys are doing this. Maybe not
at this level, though, I think when you look back
(45:40):
on twenty twenty four, I think Marcus Freeman will benefit
a ton from what twenty twenty four was. You benefit
from going to the National Championship Game because you finally
have it to put in front of people's faces. Of
the doubting Thomas's so to speak, that had to see
it to believe it. Well, there it is. We went.
I mean, we played for a national championship, and anyone
(46:02):
who told you we couldn't do that again, they lied
to you. So you get to say that, but you
also get to continue to hold the carrot collectively over
your program, over your players, over your staff because you
still got embarrassed last year at home against Northern Illinois.
You still got to the dance, but you didn't get
the job done there. So it's like this perfect combination
(46:24):
of a proof of performance, but also there's no complacency
equels like what did you really accomplish? There's no hardware
in the building. They can't win a conference and they
didn't win the national championship game. I guess you got
some bowl trophies. They're playing for the big one. So again,
how could it have gone any better for Notre Dame?
(46:46):
How could it be going any better? Also, Notre name
one of the favorites to win the national title this year.
I know that because I have a fan duel log
in and they are the exclusive odds provider of our show,
and that is where you can go. If you feel
motivated to put some money down on Marcus Freeman and
Notre Dame winning the whole thing this year, you can
(47:07):
do that at FanDuel. If you don't think they'll even
make the playoff, you can also bet that at FanDuel.
If you're interested in taking Notre Dame and laying the
points against Miami in week one, because yes, that's who
they open with, you can do that at FanDuel. If
you don't even bet, never have, never will, that's cool.
You can go. Look, it's free to look at the
(47:27):
odds over there. But I know a lot of you
you're coming off of you're coming off of your vacation.
You know this is what you've already flipped through the magazines. Now,
some of you sat on a beach this very week
and you read all the magazines and now you know
what you need to know, or at least you think
you do, and it's time to throw some money down.
That's fine, that's the true test of how serious you
(47:48):
are about your opinion. You're ready to open that wallet
and back it up. Fanduels where to do it, and
the wallet maybe even fuller as a result. You know,
that's the positive. That's the benefit of getting those numbers early.
Sign Up for FanDuel at FanDuel dot com backslash CFB
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(48:12):
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(48:33):
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(48:53):
Or call one eight seven seven eight Hope n Y.
Or text h op E n Y in New York.
All right, let's continue, and let's rap with what we've
been rapping with several shows in the spring and summer.
It's Bold Prediction season. Friends. Then we got four of
them tonight that are at least a nine on the
(49:15):
Boldness scale. First up from a Los Anglees, California, as
Steve Austin would say, USC wins the Big Ten, Well
that's a nine. That's a nine on the Boldness scale.
It's not impossible. USC has the fifth best odds to
win the Big Ten. It's not impossible. Okay, if they
have a lot of close games and they just win
(49:35):
them this year. That's how easy it is. It came
out of it came it roll off the tongue so easily.
But I know it's a lot tougher in real life.
Imagine how thin the air gets in November. If USC
gets to that Nebraska game, they got a trip to nebra.
Let's say they were to beat Michigan and Notre Dame
(49:56):
and they're undefeated going into Nebraska, and they got to
buy week before they go in there. That point that
week November first on, you know how long November would
be nothing but conference games. You know how long November
would be. And they got a trip to Oregon the second,
the last week of the year. Nobody associated with that
(50:17):
program has done it at this point. Lincoln's done it,
but like a lot of the other folks, they haven't
felt it. So once they get on the tight rope,
can they walk it all the way across? That's tough
to do. That's tough to do. They gotta win. They
got to go to India and win the game too,
by the way, So that's a nine. Next up, this
(50:39):
would cause great consternation. Nate from Saint Clairsville, Ohio says
he's a long horn in the heart of Buckeye Country.
His prediction arch Manning accounts for four plus touchdowns in
Week one, Texas beats OU or Ohio State my bad
by twenty one plus. Give me a nine point seventy
(51:01):
five on this. Now, nobody goes into Columbus Ohio and
does that by that margin, and I don't expect it
to happen here. In fact, Ohio State's favored in the game,
so I don't expect that to happen. But the reason
I didn't make it a ten is because there's so
much newness for both of them. Really, either team winning
(51:24):
by three touchdowns, which is just three plays, is not
like out of this world crazy to me. It's very unlikely. Okay,
but if you told me that Texas's pass rush just
goes in there and creates a nightmare, and Julian saying,
in that pass offense, Brian hartline calling plays for the
(51:45):
first time, he just never gets in a rhythm, and
Texas turns them over three times. Arch starts three different
drives inside his thirty five yard line. I could see
that happening. I don't think it's going to like if
you told me that's the way that game plays out.
I've seen crazier things. I think we'll see crazier things
(52:05):
this year than that. I mean, Vandy beat Bama last
year and the goalpost ended up in the Cumberland River,
So don't tell me crazy can't happen. Next up, Jeffrey
from Carry North Carolina. Clemson becomes the first team since
Fresno in twenty thirteen with three one thousand plus yard receivers. Okay,
(52:25):
this is only a nine, and we've been talking about
how ridiculously underwhelming Clemson's wide receiver room's been for a while,
but not now. They got one of the best in
the country now, so this almost certainly would be Antonio Williams,
Bryant Westco Junior TJ. Moore. Those have got to be
your three one thousand yard receivers. They had nine oh four,
(52:46):
seven oh eight, and six fifty one respectively last year.
There was some injury thrown in there. So if cave
club Nick plays to the level I think he can,
if those those three guys are healthy most of the year,
they may lack a ground game with enough punch. Brenning
(53:08):
Stool's gone, so they don't probably have a premiere tight end.
I could see this being the way their offense functions.
This could happen. It's a nine. It's very bold. It's
not impossible. So it's so refreshing to be able to
think that about Clemson. And lastly, oh no, oh no.
(53:28):
This is from Hot Springs, Arkansas. Great horse racing there.
I was there in February. Great horse racing there. Arkansas
pulls off two top ten upsets. I'm gonna put a
nine point twenty five on this. Arkansas sneaky enough to
do this. I'm just wondering, well, who are the top
ten teams? So there are possibilities on here. Ole Miss
(53:51):
in week three could be a top ten team. They
got Notre Dame in Week five, that'll probably be a
top ten team. Unless there's upsets early Tennessee week seven,
I don't know. A and M week eight, I don't know,
Auburn week nine, I don't know, LSU week twelve, possibly,
at Texas week thirteen, probably, Missouri week fourteen, maybe, And
(54:12):
then they got to beat two of those teams, and
it has to be two teams that are in the
top ten. That's just hard to do. Man. Also, Arkansas's
questionable this year, So I'm gonna put a nine point
twenty five on that one. Because I love Trey Biddy
as much as I do, I appreciate it. Good show, good,
solid show tonight, good a lot of your sunburn. I
(54:34):
know you've been having fun out there on the lake
and whatnot. It's nice of you to stop by and
we talked some college football. This month is going to
be crazy. There's so many moving parts for us. We
got big TEN media days and SEC media days. We
got folks going on vacation, we got other big things
happening around here. So all the changes are great changes.
(54:55):
But if the schedule looks a little weird for the
next few weeks, that's why don't freak out. Good things
to come in the meantime. Dinner. That's what's to come
in the meantime. For producer Jesse. For director Bradley, I'm
Josh Bate, Take care, have a great rest of your
evening and God bless. Sign up for FanDuel at FanDuel
(55:27):
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and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with
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First online real money wager only ten dollars first deposit required.
Bonus issued is non withdrawable bonus bet that expires seven
(55:48):
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(56:08):
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Hope n Y. Or text h O P E n Y.
In New York,
Home training. Home training is important. So let me tell
you how I was raised, and in this case, I
am telling you how to raise your kids. Do whatever
you want to in the spring, do whatever you want
to pre July fourth. But once we come off of
Independence Day, off of the Nathan's Famous Hot Dog eating contest,
it is time to focus on what's important and what's important,
(00:41):
and I have an entire stock of it in my
hand is college football. We are high a top, a
radiant downtown Nashville, Tennessee, jam packed as we always are
on this Sunday, July sixth, the Year of Our Lord,
twenty twenty five, proudly brought to you by Academy Sports
and Outdoors. You hear the TikTok, not the app the
actual sound of a clock because a lot of you
(01:03):
are on it. A lot of teams are on the
clock this year. Some of you just have competitive pressure,
some of you outright need to win to keep your jobs.
Everyone's got to a certain extent. But I feel like
we got about i'd say five or six teams that
really feel like they're on the clock this year. I
feel like we've got to talk about weaknesses amongst some
of the Contenders. We did that the other night. We
(01:24):
did it Tuesday night. We're gonna do it again tonight.
We got to tell the truth about Marcus Freeman on
the show tonight. Someone asked me about influences on me. Yeah,
of all people, we got that, we got bold predictions.
It rolls on and on and on in July, as
we get ever closer to kick off, they're watching us
in Corpus Christi, Texas, Noonan Georgia, Santa Rosa, California, Mobile, Alabama.
(01:46):
Thank you guys so so much. I told you weird schedule.
We're gonna have another weird schedule coming up this week.
Just there's a lot of stuff moving around. It'll make
sense very very soon. But I I'm just looking see
I'm trying to tell you, but I can't hand over
the mouth right now, and it happens to be my own.
But bear with us. We're trying to keep as much
(02:08):
normalcy around here as possible. Again, let me reiterate all
good things. Let's dive into the show tonight. Okay. I
feel like some teams are really on the clock this year,
not all of them, Like, oh you better win, Are
you gonna lose your job? Although some of these are
maybe the first one who knows, But I feel like
some of these teams are just on the clock, and
I wanted to talk about some of these tonight. So
(02:28):
like Auburn, I really feel like Auburn is on the
clock this year. I really feel like Hugh Freeze got there.
And to Auburn fans credit, I thought they had as
much patience as any fan base would have with a
head coach in like major college football SEC football, because
they understood the cupboard was sort of bear. Hugh Freeze
(02:51):
did not inherit some turnkey, ready made winner. He didn't
get what Kaylin Debor got handed to him. He didn't
get what Ryan Day got handed to him. So there
was a lot of understanding. Even in year two, still
some understanding. This is year three and you've got to win.
You've got to win. They went six and seven first year,
five and seven, second year. They got to win this year,
(03:13):
and it's just a roll of the dice on Jackson Arnold.
That's the long and short of it. They're over underwent
total seven and a half. They've got to go over that.
If they don't what are you selling? I mean, if
they don't like what you're trying to package a vision.
That's what they've been trying to do, selling kids on
what will happen come be a part of it. But
(03:34):
three years of seven wins or less, who knows what
this year holds. They got to get it done. Man.
And then on the total opposite end of the spectrum,
I think is Penn State Pence. There's no job security
pressure on James Franklin. Anyone who suggests otherwise outside their mind.
James Franklin and Penn State have a unique situation here
(03:56):
in that the dominoes have fallen into play in such
a way that Penn State, despite the fact that they
still really haven't gotten over the big game hump. They
still haven't won the Big ten lately. They won in
the playoff last year, but they beat two teams that
candidly they should have beaten, and then went down again
when they sort of met their match, met their equal.
(04:17):
Despite the fact that they haven't really accomplished any of
those or cleared any of those hurdles that are put
in their way, and the criticisms that are thrown at them,
despite all that, they're in a position to be considered
a national title favorite. This year, and yet there's some
hesitation out there for people to buy into the idea
that they could ever do that because they haven't. One
of the big rules on our show, in fact, we
(04:38):
told the lies of college football the other night, biggest
lies in the sport. One of them is people take
have not to mean cannot. James Franklin has not won
a title. To me, that's where the period goes. But
for some people the sentence continues because he has not won,
he will not win, he cannot win. Well, I don't
know if that's true, but that's what you're on the
(05:00):
clock for. You can't just be a good, solid team
this year. I don't know how else to put it.
You can't just sort of be in contention but fall
short against Oregon and Ohio State, be just on the
outside looking in of the Big Ten championship, probably still
make the playoff, but not really do anything in the playoff.
They've got to do more than that. I don't know
(05:21):
if that means go win a national title or it's
a failure. I don't know if I go that far,
but I think you'd know it. Like if Penn State,
for example, if they were to beat Oregon, go play
a dog fight down to the wire game against Ohio
State and lose, but then they beat them in the
rematch in Indianapolis. And then they go and they go
to the national title game. Even if they don't win it.
(05:43):
That's a big season. That is a season above and
beyond anything James Franklin has done in a long time.
I would take that. That's what they're on the clock
to do. At the very least. Bama's the same way. Now.
Anyone who tells you Caylin de Boor would have a
lot of job security pressure if he only won nine games, again,
they're wrong. They're wrong, But that wouldn't stop a lot
(06:03):
of people from yelling it. They yelled at about Ryan
Day last year, fed up beating Michigan, he ought to
be out of here. Well, he wouldn't have been fired,
but that didn't stop people from yelling it. So if
Kaylen Deboor only wins nine, if he barely misses out
on the playoff, again, they'd yell it. That's not the
kind of on the clock I'm talking about. The kind
of on the clock I'm talking about is no one
matters or no one cares. Rather that it took you
(06:26):
a second to find your footing. In year one, we
saw the same thing you saw. We saw guys like
Caleb downs Lee via the portal. We saw the quarterback
position be you know, way way up and down, kind
of schizophrenic in production. Last year, your results were tied
to that you had what you had in year one.
He's recruited a couple of really good classes. I mean
(06:47):
they're on a roll. They've been on a role in
recruiting this cycle. They didn't have any guys leave for
the portal this past cycle. Like, there are a lot
of indicators pointing up. Now, the results on the field
need to bear that out. And this is probably like
the least on the clock team out of the what's
six I'm talking about. But yet Bama fans will tell
you he's got everything he needs. It's not like Saban
(07:10):
hung on five years too long and left the cupboard
empty and you had to rebuild it from scratch. He
left and left you a ton of athletes, And I mean,
program's never been in a better place, and you need
to win. If it takes you a year, okay, but
you need to win. That's fair. I don't even think
the boor things. That's unfair. That's fair. At Clemson, CLI
(07:31):
Dabbo's as rock solid as it gets in terms of
job security. This team's on the clock. Kind of like
Penn State. This Clemson team is on the clock because
they've got a unique opportunity to do something they haven't
done in a few years. It feels like forever ago
now that we looked at Clemson and said, yeah, I
(07:52):
could pick that team to win the national title. But
I'm telling you, I guess I need to look over here.
I'm telling you I would pick this Clemson team to
be a favorite to win a national championship. I'm not
ready to make the actual prediction yet, but I could
see that coming out of my mouth in a couple
of months. So it's not title or bust. But they
(08:12):
do need to put themselves in position. They need to
climb high enough on the ladder where the belt is
within reach and at that point you reach and if
you grab it, you grab it. If you don't, at
least you put yourself within reach. At the very least,
this team has to put itself within reach this year.
Not that it would be the end of the world. See,
there's categories to this, there's layers to this. Dabo's fine,
(08:34):
Clemson's fine if they don't win, if they were to
go nine to three this year, they're fine. It's just
that the window for this team and maybe the window
for this program closed, because I'm not so sure that
it's just reload, reload, reload, reload for Clemson right now.
Could be wrong about that, but it doesn't feel that
way to me. It feels like they've built towards this
year for a few years now. Of the wide receiver
(08:57):
positions there NFL guys that ever, level of the defense.
I really just if you hear this, you hear that
on the podcast, that's how Clemson used to play defense.
And I mean I go back and watch that Louisville
game last year. That is not the way they played defense. Well,
you go hire Tom Allen, you hope to rectify that.
You got your quarterback there, you got your offensive coordinator again,
(09:18):
best wide receiver room you've had in a long time.
So I think they're on the clock competitively. Oklahoma's a
different story now. Oklahoma is very much Brent Venables and
Oklahoma have to win this year or they could be
looking for a new head coach. And I think that's fair.
I think it's very fair. I don't know how you
say otherwise. I mean, he's had three years now, this
(09:41):
will be his fourth year. There's no sanctions there. There
have been some questionable hires, and then to their credit,
they hit the dump button. And now at offensive coordinator,
you go and you get our buckle and his quarterback
from Washington State, and that's who you've hitched your wagon to.
You don't get to screw up more coordinator hires at
(10:01):
this level. You just don't get to do it. The
states are too high, the pay is too high. All
of that's fair. It'd be unfair if someone else screwed
everything up and then you tossed it in Brenton Venable's
lap and said, hey, I know we just made a
mess in your lap there, but you still gotta win
or else it's all gonna be on you. That's not
what happened. That's not what happened here. So this is
(10:22):
totally fair. They've recruited good athletes there. They're gonna be good. Defensively,
they've elevated every year since he's been there. I got
a little doubt about that. Offensive line's got to be
way better. Quarterback positions got to be way better. Offensive coordinator,
the offensive product has got to be way better. They
got a tough schedule to face. I don't think anyone
(10:43):
is saying playoff or bust, but they better be noticeably
improved this year. I think they will be, but they
better be. They're on the clock for that and USC
same way. None of this stuff is unreasonable. Lincoln Riley
left Oklahoma several years ago for USC now and he's
been out there and their record has regressed every year.
And that's reality. That's not an opinion, that's reality. Now
(11:08):
its opinion when you talk about the wise, but it's
reality that it's happened. Okay, So what are we asking, Well,
we're asking for the defensive coordinator higher you made two
years ago now to continue to pay off, and I
think it will. I don't have any doubt about that.
You got to be better on the lines of scrimmage.
You are a quarterback guy, so my ava's got to
(11:30):
give us good quarterback play. We got to be able
to win games in a variety of different ways. And
to be honest, USC ought to be able to score
forty five if they need to, but they ought to
be able to hold someone under twenty if they need to.
That's how you. I mean, that's the kind of team
you're gonna have to have to win anyway in major
college football. What were they six and six I think
(11:53):
in the regular season last year. So the one possession stuff,
it's just got to be better, got to better. This
isn't when the Big ten or you're out. I don't
even know if it's make the playoff or you're out.
It's not that. I fact, it's not that. I know
it's not that. But they are very much on the
clock to look a whole lot better than they did.
That's the reality. And I think it's completely fair. It's
(12:14):
his program. It's one hundred percent his program. USC football
is a total reflection of the thumb print of Lincoln Riley.
Now we're brought to you by Academy Sports and Outdoors.
They are our friends, they are our presenting partner. You
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you probably visited them over the past week because a
(12:36):
lot of us have been outdoors and you can get
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I don't have an academy near me that you do
(12:56):
have Internet near you. Okay, we'll work to rectify the
brick and mortar situation. But in the meantime, you got
academy dot Com right there at your disposal and friends, friends,
you need their stuff anyway. You're gonna buy grilling equipment,
You're gonna buy clothes, You're gonna buy bats and balls.
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(13:16):
academy and help the show in the process. Let's continue, everybody.
Everybody can talk about strengths. What about weaknesses? All these
teams you see at FanDuel in the top ten, you
know the odds to win their conferences, compete for the
national title this year. Well, everyone knows the strengths. What
are some of the weaknesses of these teams. Texas is
(13:38):
way up there. I mean, Texas is one of the
favorites in the odds market right now to win the SEC,
to win the whole thing. So what are the potential questions.
Let's not even use weaknesses, let's just unknowns, questions where
could it go wrong. Everyone's gonna talk about Arch Honestly,
we've talked about him so much beyond the quart position.
(14:01):
Just backfilling on the lines of scrimmage at Texas, especially
on the defensive line, specifically, specifically the interior there. The
edge is fine, man, they'll have one of, if not
the best pass rushes in the country. But this is
two years in a row. Now you're having to go
on the interior that defensive line because you're so good.
(14:21):
You're sending guys off to the NFL and they have
got to have portal guys hit. They're counting on them
to start. Then on the other side on the offensive line,
you lost four guys with forty plus starts. But again,
this is Texas. They just stack big bodies. So it's
not automatically a weakness if you're losing a bunch of guys.
In fact, it's a sign that you're developing and recruiting right,
(14:42):
that you're losing a bunch of guys. But all that
plus a first year starter at quarterback, that's not a weakness,
but it is very much a question, And unlike some teams,
they don't get to ease into their schedule. They play
Ohio State to start the year. What about Oregon? The
Oregon Ducks won the Big Ten last year, they were
the number one overall seed in the playoff. The quarterback
(15:04):
they did it with is gone. They got a portal,
a new one in portal guy at running back, portal
at wide receiver, portal at tight end. Those guys are gone,
well some of them are portal, but those guys, those
difference makers are gone. And Evan Stewart's hurt, and you
just wonder is everything going to fall into place? They
had to make big moves on the offensive line, had
(15:27):
to go get two tackles and one of them will
play tackle, maybe one of them will be interior. But
three of their five offensive line starters are going to
be from the portal and go back to the wide
receiver position for a second without Evan Stewart, who's there
bona fide wide receiver one. Maybe they figure that out
in camp. Maybe it's a situation where you look and
they got four guys over five hundred receiving yards, but
(15:50):
no one with a thousand or maybe a guy just
clearly emerges. But the point is there is a lot
of unknown there. There are a lot of questions. I
got no problem blindly believing in Oregon, but now doesn't
mean there aren't questions there. What about Miami? Go as
far away from Eugene as we could possibly get, Carson Beck? Okay,
so the help thing will find out. We'll find out
(16:13):
like he's been throwing for a while, so we're led
to believe he's healthy physically mentally. This guy thought he
was going to be playing in the NFL this time
last year. This guy was the favorite to win the
Heisman Trophy at Georgia. This time last year, he didn't
win the Heisman. It didn't work out at Georgia. He's
in Miami now. Had a lot of off the field
(16:34):
headlines about him. Where's his head at? Because if it's
in the game, he can do what cam Or did
last year. He can go down there and make a
new name for himself, vault himself right back up the
draft board. He could do all those things. He can do,
all those things. Will he do all those things? And
then beyond that, who's he throwing the ball to? They lost?
(16:55):
I think their top half dozen pass catchers from last year.
Who's he throwing the ball to? Those portal guys have
to hit. They got to hit. And then on the
other side, the defensive backfield specifically, they were so bad
at giving up explosive plays last year. They got Corey
Heatherman from Minnesota as their new defensive coordinator. Miami is
(17:17):
another team if you look at their schedule that does
not get to dip their toe into the season. It
is boom Notre Dame week one. They got U or
USF in Week three, that's not easy, and then boom
Florida in Town week four, at Florida State. Week five, Louisville.
There's a bye week in between the Florida and Florida
(17:38):
State games, but it's not a backloaded schedule. And so
whatever we're asking here, they've got to have those answered.
They got several losable games in the first month of
the season, so they got to have those answered. And also,
I want to go to the Big twelve for a second.
Texas Tech on a lot of people's radars, Texas on
mine too, Texas Tech. The general question there, the general
(18:04):
unknown there is there's just so much new. This team
could be all world this year, or it could be
really really wobbly out of the gate, because you know,
there's a difference in a bunch of individuals and a team.
And we've seen one time in the portal era a
team get put together that was playoff caliber. It was
(18:24):
Florida State a couple of years ago. They just missed out,
but if it was a twelve team playoff, they would
have been in. Clearly, Texas Tech is trying to do that,
and I just find it so fascinating that they're going
to go up against teams like Arizona State, which is,
you know, a lot of cohesion, a lot of returning production.
Kansas State's kind of that way, like Iowa State, all
(18:45):
these other Big twelve schools, they sort of recruit their developmental.
They're not really heavy on portal guys, and if they are,
it's mainly to provide depth over going and getting proven starters.
In Texas Tech did the complete opposite, and they allowed
thirty five plus eight times last year. So defensively they
got to get better, they got new coordinators on both
(19:06):
sides of the ball, and yet they're right there in
the preseason odds to win the Big Twelve. They got
an over under win total of eight and a half.
There's a lot expected out in Lubbock. I am included
in that, but there's also a lot of unknown. That's
why God makes you play the games. I guess. Moving along,
Moving along, a third show in a row. I do
(19:27):
want to give credit to our friend cream Soda at
ZVA of course our favorite zero sugar soda here. Cream
Soda took it personal. I mean, I've never seen since
Michael Jordan himself, I've never seen something taken as personal
as as cream Soda Zvia took our sudden love affair
for orange creamsickle ZVA. Not that I'm not still consuming it,
(19:51):
but I mean, cream soda has dominated the show, I
think it's safe to say over the past couple of weeks.
So it's good to see you back. And it's competition.
We foster an atmosphere of competition around here, and that
(20:12):
includes our drink partner. We had a question about Ryan
Day that at first I thought was crazy. In fact,
there's the word there. Tommy from Akron hit me up.
He said, Am I crazy to think that there's still
a lot of pressure on Ryan Day because of the
Michigan losing streak. No, no, no, you're not crazy at all.
(20:38):
This is where college football is over here and any
other sport is over there. As a concept, if you
win a championship, a national championship, in any other sport,
the word pressure is not even in the galaxy of
conversation about you the following year, EPETE, maybe a complacency,
(21:04):
reload or rebuild. No, one's talking pressure, and we're not
talking job security pressure with Ryan Day or anything like that.
But I believe rivalry games. I believe rivalries are the
most important part of college football. I believe beating Michigan
is the most important role that you have as the
(21:25):
head coach at Ohio State, above winning the conference, above
winning national titles. This is my personal worldview in college athletics.
My personal college football worldview is that if you're the
head coach at Ohio State, your job's to beat Michigan,
and then the Big Ten can be one, and then
the national title can be one in that order. But
beating Michigan's number one, and he hadn't done it in
(21:46):
several years now. So if you're asking me, oh, is
there pressure on him, Absolutely, there's pressure on him. I
don't care if they won the national title by one
hundred last year. That's almost like its own conversation. The
national title pick sure is its own conversation. The Michigan
game is a season. It is its own season. I'd
say the same thing if the head coach at Michigan
(22:09):
had lost to Ryan Day three years or four years
in a row, going on half a decade in a row.
I don't care what else you've done. You have failed
several times consecutively in your most important role. And I
think he's one of the best in the game. Like
I overflow with respect for Ryan Day, overflow, I could
(22:32):
not think any more highly of the guy. But I'm
not saying anything he doesn't know. In fact, I think
Ryan Day, Kirby Smart and Ryan Day are two of
the most brutally honest coaches that we ever sit down
with when it comes to their assessment of their job,
their assessment of their program. Dude, you don't even have
to say this to Ryan Day. He'll say it for you.
(22:52):
He knows he knows the deal about being the head
coach at Ohio State. So my point in saying this
would make no sense to anyone else is if you
were the head coach of the New England Patriots or whatnot.
It doesn't matter how many times you lose to the
Jets in a row. If you're winning the AFC, like
if you're playing for or winning a Super Bowl, now
(23:15):
one's talking about your record versus the Jets. That's cause
the NFL is not college football. In college football, they're
just different compartments. They don't even have to touch each other,
like they don't have to overlap. You can go win
a national title and have still failed in your most
important role as the head coach somewhere. If that somewhere
is a place like Ohio State. So I don't care
(23:39):
if that doesn't make sense to anyone else. And I'm
not one of these crazy people, well it's wrong for
me to cast dispersions. I'm not one of these people
who was ever yelling you got to get him out
of there. If you don't beat Michigan, you got to
get him out of there. I wasn't that last year.
I was not that. I thought it was a little
bit off the rails. But at the same time, there's
(24:02):
no one who places more of a premium on winning
rivalry games than me. I literally think it's the most
important thing that you can do as a head coach.
I literally prioritize it above winning the conference in the
national title. That's how imperative it is to me that
you win rivalry games. So to a casual college football fan,
(24:22):
to an agnostic sports fan who just like looks at
college football from afar, that will sound crazy. But that's okay.
They don't understand this world. That's fine. I don't ever
try and go in the world of tennis and ask, wait,
why is the scoring fifteen thirty forty? What does love mean?
That doesn't make any sense to me. Well, that's okay.
(24:44):
It may be their sport's not for me. Maybe this
sport's not for you if it makes no sense to
you that there could still be a lot of pressure
on Ryan Day even after you just won a national championship.
But I'll tell you who it does make sense to
Ryan Day. I bet you it makes sense to him.
They're watching us an Elk Grove, California, Tulsa, Oklahoma, and Bloomington, Indiana.
We appreciate everyone for being tuned in. It looks like
(25:07):
I just wanted their towns up. No, I wanted the
post it note up, the Town's just happened to be there. Oh,
this is a fun question. Someone asked Patrick from West Newbury, Massachusetts.
I would assume up there they would say West Newbury.
But I think that's crazy, just like Strawberry is crazy. No, no, no,
And don't even get me started on Caraenmel versus Carmel. Anyway,
(25:29):
Patrick said, who were some of your influences in terms
of getting into college football media. I don't hear anyone
like you, so I'm curious. I hope you don't hear
anyone like me. It's probably in everyone's best interest. Patrick, No,
So I could answer this two ways. There were people
(25:52):
when I was a kid that I heard outside of
the boundaries of college media or even in sports media
that always struck me as I got a little bit older,
I always thought Colin Cowherd when he first got to
ESPN radio, really set a tone that was different than
(26:12):
anything else I had ever heard. It was the first
time I ever started listening to sports talk radio in
a consistent manner. It connected with me. I mean, he
was the only one really talking college football at a
national level, so that's probably why it connected with me.
But I also remember, just like the theater of the
mind aspect that he was so good at the community
(26:35):
building that he was really good at So I mean,
that guy got me through several early morning shifts at
the warehouse. He was my bridge between unloading the Southeastern
Freight truck stocking the shelves. Finally we got to our
lunch break about the time he hands it off to
the early afternoon show. But then as it got real
(26:57):
to me that maybe I'll be able to do this
for a living, or or maybe I at least want
to roll the dice. I want to bet on myself.
I want to take a shot. There were two shows
that were already in the space that I was really
paying attention to. I've talked about them before. One of
them that I used to listen to I still listen to,
but I listened to religiously was the solid Verbal with
(27:18):
Tyholde Brandt and Dan Rubinstein, and those guys were doing
what I wanted to do. They weren't necessarily like working
for any big corporation, any big media company. It was
their show. It was unique under anything else in the space.
There wasn't a lot of other options in the space
yet that would soon change. But I was heavily influenced
(27:40):
by those guys, not so much stylistically, like I knew
kind of I've got my way that I'd like to
do it. I think the things I think, I talk,
the way I talk, all that stuff. But I listened
to them and I would. At the time, I was
don't let Savannah stay to hear this. But I was
dating a girl who lived up in Atlanta. I was
still down in Columbus, so I had a you know,
(28:01):
an hour and a half commute each way if I
was going to go see her. So that's when I
would listen to a solid verbal and I just, man,
you feel like you know those guys and you've never
met them. And I remember thinking to myself, that's what
you have to establish. I feel like I've got a
relationship with these two dudes. I've never met them. I
don't even know what they look like. At the time,
(28:22):
I didn't, and so that influenced me, and the guys
at college football Nerds influenced me, both of whom were
at the wedding last month. What a you know, a
circular not quite circle of life. That's not what they
meant at all in the Lion King, but it was
kind of a full circle moment, I guess, but I
(28:43):
remember talking to them. I was looking at their YouTube
channel back then. I was thinking, man, dude, if we
could ever get like a fraction of the subscribers they have.
But more than that, I was thinking, these guys are
talking math in a way that I don't think I
could ever talk. But it makes sense to me. And
that influenced me because I remember, man, most of the
stat type stuff, most of the data based stuff, it
(29:06):
loses me in three nanoseconds. I don't have the attention
span for it. Those guys were really good at it,
and you know, when you would comment on their channel,
they would comment back, which is something I still try
and do as much as I can. But those two,
it's four guys, but those four, they heavily influenced me.
They're both doing their stuff today, like I highly recommend
(29:26):
Solid Verbal and college football nerds. You could do me
a big favor if you go check both of their
shows out. All right, we have a very very important
exercise that we've been doing on the show. I want
to continue it tonight. We've been doing this exercise for
a little while where we look at teams and we
look at the record from last year and we just
(29:47):
got to call our shot. Now, throw your dart at
the board. Are there going to be better this year
or worse this year than they were last year? I
want to start with Ole Miss tonight. Ole Miss was
nine and three last year. They're over unders eight and
a half. If you're interested, nine and three last year
should have made the playoffs. It's their fault they didn't.
I think they'll be worse this year. If I had
(30:08):
to guess record wise, I think Old Miss may fall
off a game compared to what they did last year.
I think they'll still be good to excellent offensively. I'm
a big believer in Austin Simmons. There's nothing you need
to sell me on there. The defense is a pretty
big question mark for me. They're gonna have regression. We
(30:29):
talked about that in the previous show. There will be regression,
it's how much does it fall off. I don't think
that portal class had the same pop that it did
a cycle before, and so because of that, I look
at games like the LSU game going to Georgia and
Oklahoma back to back South Carolina after that, there's no
(30:50):
buy that gets at Georgia at Oklahoma South Carolina. They
got Florida late in the year. I'm asking myself, could
they lose four of those games? I think they could.
So it's not something I'm betting on. I don't feel
that strongly about it. But I slightly lean worse than
nine and three, and I hope that's not the case,
because at that point, you ask, man, did almost miss
(31:12):
their best shot to do something in the playoff by
missing it entirely next up SMU eleven and one last year,
you gotta go worse. I mean, just we're asking what's
more likely. It's far more likely they're worse. They got
a tougher schedule this year than they did last year.
(31:32):
We were talking about them, I mean, we were talking
about them as being the prime sleeper contender merely because
of schedule. We almost labeled them that sight unseen because
of how fortuitous their schedule set up was last year.
So three of the top four wide receivers are gone.
Schedule gets a little bit tougher. Defensive tackle question, edge question.
(31:56):
They had to go to the portal. Not that they're
the only ones who had to do this, but they
had to go the portal to backfield. Defensively, they had
a top ten rush defense last year. Are they just
gonna do that again? So if they go ten and two,
I'm right Like they could go ten and two, they
could be playing for the conference title again and I'd
be right. So I'm gonna go worse for SMU. For Nebraska,
(32:19):
this is important. So I'm gonna wait Compton up William Nebraska.
I am ready to predict. I am ready to back
with my own money that Nebraska will be better than
six and six this year. Okay, it's Matt rule. It's
year three. You know the science behind the rule three,
(32:40):
The rule of three tam trademark. That's mine. Now, Dylan
Riyola with better options, That's what I'm thinking about now.
I don't love that Tony White's gone. I just need
him to hold the rope defensively. Again, We're not trying
to go ten and two or eleven and one here.
I'm trying to figure out, how does Nebraska win eight games?
(33:01):
Seven or eight games? That's where they should be at
least this year. If you look at the schedule, as
many will start to do this time of year, when
do they play Ohio State? Oh, they don't well, let
me see, where's Oregon here? Oh? Oh, Oregon's not there. Well,
where's the tough road games? Michigan? No, they get them
at home. Oh man, that trip to USC is going
to be tough. Oh wait, they get USC at home
(33:22):
as well. Dude, No one wants to go to Iowa
at the end of the year. Oh Iowa comes there,
they got a game at Penn State elsewhere. Where's the
road trip that I'm supposed to be scared of? So,
you know what, they better win more than six games.
They're over under win totals. What seven and a half? Yeah,
they do. Will Compton and Matt Rule better not screw
(33:43):
this up like it's got to happen. It's got I've
been accused of Nebraska slander for, you know, predicting anything
less than a Big ten championship game appearance. No, No,
not quite that bullish yet. But they gotta they gotta
do better than six and six now, swear in that
rough portion of the country. Are my Iowa State Cyclones
(34:08):
Big twelve runners up? Last year? Things just didn't go
our way in the conference title game. Shame on you,
Kenny Dillingham. They went ten to two last year. There
is not a bone in my body that's about to
publicly state that Iowa State will be worse than that
this year. I don't care what you put in front
of me. I will plug my ears with both index
fingers and shout la la la. I can't hear you
(34:30):
as long as it takes, or until I lose my voice.
I'm team rock Obeck all day. Quarterback still there, head coach,
still there, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator still there. Top third
of the country in returning production. It's just a stat
we're thrown around now. It is a navigable schedule. There's
(34:51):
no Texas Tech on there. There's no Baylor, there's no Utah.
They got Iowa at home. Candidly, I think they do
better in their house. But whatever, they get Arizona State
at home, bringing Young's at home again, that's not a
tough road slate. So ten and two I could see it.
I could see and you know what, maybe eleven and
one is not out of the realm of possibility. But
(35:14):
as we all know, Iowa State has now established themselves
as a perennial contender. Okay, So nowadays and aims we
talk about nine or ten when that's the floor. Matt
Campbell will appreciate this. They love expectations up there. They
love it. Look the expectation that's okay to have any
(35:34):
time of year's Quick Trip's going to be there for you.
They welcome that. Okay, you expect them to have cold
brew on tap, they welcome that. There's never any complacency.
They're not closing. Okay, the pumps will work, the cold
brew on tap will work. And if it doesn't, I
don't want to be held responsible. But I'm pretty sure
it'll work. And they'll have food in there, and they'll
have snacks in there, and you know what else they'll have.
(35:56):
They'll have our back. We need to go on the
road for a tour of this far. They got us.
We just went to what sixteen places this spring on
the Speakers series tour. They had us. They're the exclusive
fuel provider of pet State. This university is entirely fueled
by Quick Trip in every way imaginable. So thank you
(36:17):
Quick Trip. Let's continue question season. It's big question season,
you know in college football. And I got a question
tonight from one of you that I've chosen to answer.
One of you said, Hey, I got the biggest question
for you this year how many SEC and Big ten
(36:37):
teams will make the playoff. This was the hot topic
of conversation around Halloween and beyond last year and just
spit on myself. So last year it was seven seven
of them made it. There's not a lot of fluctuation here,
Like seven is probably the baseline. One of them is
(36:58):
probably gonna have four, the other one's gonna have at
least three. That's probably the way this goes. But the
thing about it is it's gonna be like at least seven.
Nine is the max because we still got twelve teams
this year, and the ACC's gotta have one. The Big
ten in the SEC, all right, they'll have several, but
(37:19):
the ACC's got to have one, the Big twelve's got
to have one, the G five's got to have one.
Nine is the most you can get, and if Notre
Dame doesn't make it in then you can get nine.
It's most likely they get eight, Like I think, that's
how much they get in or how many they get in.
So in the odds to make the playoff, nine of
(37:40):
the top thirteen are from the Big ten or the SEC. Yes,
of course they're gonna load up the odds board, but
they're also gonna play each other, so they're gonna knock
a lot of each other out. But the question here
is okay, well, how many of them are good enough?
And then the follow up is twofold? I think is
the follow up that I don't really know the answer
(38:01):
to question number one. Did SMU's performance last year when
they got benefit of the doubt and they got put
in the playoff and then got smoked on the road
at Penn State? Does that sway the opinion making. My
personal opinion is SMU deserved to be in the playoff
(38:22):
over Alabama, so I agreed with the decision. I expected
them to lose handedly to Penn State. I didn't get anything.
I didn't expect they could lose by one hundred and
it doesn't change whether they should or shouldn't have been
placed in. Your body of work is what determines whether
you get placed in not. We're going to put you
in and then see if you deserved it by what
you do after the fact. That's not part of your resume.
(38:45):
But I could see some people thinking along those lines,
maybe even some committee members, And by that I mean,
if we do have another ab scenario, where there's a
Big ten or an SEC team that's maybe three losses
versus an SMU whoever that is. This year, I could
see a lot of people in the media making a
(39:06):
bad faith argument that, you know, big boys should be
in over Cinderella over here. And then part B is
they've got that new strength of schedule and strength of
record metric and criteria that they're going to insert into
the selection process. Does that tilt the odds in the
favor of an extra team from the SEC and extra
(39:28):
team from the Big ten? I think it will. My
guess is they're going to have eight in this year.
Could be five and three, could be four and four, whatever,
but I think they'll have eight in. Let's move it
merrily along, nice brisk pace tonight. I like where we're at.
Like where we're at. We were two shows ago. We
did like a ninety minute show in June somehow, So
(39:52):
we've been trying to tell the truth on a lot
of head coaches, and I wanted to tell the truth
about Marcus Freeman tonight. This have worked out any better
for Notre Dame. We should have put the Notre Dame
helmet on the sets right over there. I'm looking at
it right now, could this have worked out any better
for Notre Dame? Remember a couple of years ago, Brian Kelly,
he had been there for a long time, He's what
(40:14):
the all time winning his head coach in Notre Dame history,
and he didn't get fired. He chose to leave. He
chose to leave. It hurt some people's feelings. It didn't
hurt everybody's feelings, but they had. As it turns out,
his backfill already in house. Marcus Freeman was already there,
and so Marcus Freeman does not go with him. Marcus
(40:36):
Freeman stays. Marcus Freeman becomes the head coach at Notre
Dame has never been a head coach before, So like
Ohio State and like Georgia and like Oklahoma recently, at
that point, Notre Dame's gonna roll the dice on a
first time head coach, and Marcus Freeman takes the job.
(40:59):
And now three years later, I think we can definitively
look at Notre Dame football and say they're in a
better spot than where Brian Kelly had him. And I
doubted that would happen, by the way, Like if you
told me that was gonna happen. I would have said,
all right, I need to see it. I guess it's
not impossible, but I'm going to need to see that. Well,
you know what, I've seen it, and he's been there
(41:20):
three years, and you you should still be seeing a
sharp learning curve. Guy's in his late thirties. Okay, that
guy at a major program should be showing obvious flaws
still And you know what, you could throw out the
martial laws, the Northern Illinois loss. It's not like they
(41:41):
haven't been there. What I'm saying is it should be glaring. Really,
if history has taught us anything, it should be glaring
when you take a first time head coach and give
him a major job. Period. But he's been a first
time head coach being given a major job in the
most tumultuous era in the history of college football. And
(42:01):
there've been bumps on the road. But the dude played
for a national championship last year. And need I remind
you they came into the season, we thought their offensive
line would be their weakness, and not only was it not,
they got injured along the way on the offensive line
and still just this was the biggest testament to Marcus Freeman.
(42:25):
The overall aura, the vibe, the identity of the team
almost made it feel like it didn't matter how badly
they got banged up. I'm watching Notre Dame and at
a certain point last year, you look and you say, oh,
another lineman went down. It's notre name. They'll just find
a way. That is a place few programs rarely get to.
(42:47):
But if you do get there, that's the best testament
that you can give to a head coach, cause that
means head coach has done his job. What is his job?
Marcus Freeman's not in the face of every offensive lineman
in the weight room every day, butis strength and conditioning
staff that he hired. Is Marcus Freeman's not in the
face of those guys on the field, but his offensive
line and that staff that coaches his offensive line. They
(43:10):
are the development aspect, the psychological aspect, that the mental
and physical, every compartment that he's in charge of overseeing
has been perfected enough to where that's the result that
it's bearing. Okay, So then you ask yourself, well, where
(43:32):
do they go from here? I think he's in an
interesting spot right now. I think the truth is their
recruiting has trended up, and it's trended up after they
lost the general manager. This is kind of a big
thing people behind the scenes have been talking about in
college football. Chad Bowden went to USC, it was a
huge get for USC. USC recruiting has seen a big uptick,
(43:55):
and the thinking was, well, USC's gain has to be
Notre Dame's life. Maybe it was, Maybe it wasn't. The
point is you look at Notre Dame and if you're
looking for the lingering effects, the after effects of that,
they're nowhere to be found. Because as good as USC
is doing, Notre Dame's killing it too. Notre Dame's on
(44:15):
the path to maybe putting together the best class that
Freeman's put together there. So again, what you're talking about
is you're talking about the very early indicators of you know,
what great coaches have done in the past. What you've
seen with great coaches is they build such a machine
that the parts are interchangeable. You don't want to talk
(44:37):
about people like that because the program's only as good
as the people. But if you've got a strong program,
it attracts the right people. So like one of the
right people leaves, another of the right people comes right
there in to replace him or her or whatever the
case may be. Point being again, most programs never get
to that level. And here's what's crazy about that. You
(44:59):
could look in the past, you say, man like Nick
Saban is the tailor made example of that. Yeah, yes,
Sabin did that at Bama. You know what else is
true about Nick Saban. Freeman's thirty nine years old. When
Nick Saban was thirty nine years old, he was a
decade away from taking the LSU job. So they're doing it.
(45:19):
I mean, Marcus Freeman's starting to do this at a
completely different juncture of his life than Nick Saban ever
thought about doing it. Sabin was at Toledo when he
was thirty nine years old. Just to give you an
idea of sort of how different the trajectory is for
Marcus Freeman. Like some other Dan Lannings this age, like
a lot of other guys are doing this. Maybe not
at this level, though, I think when you look back
(45:40):
on twenty twenty four, I think Marcus Freeman will benefit
a ton from what twenty twenty four was. You benefit
from going to the National Championship Game because you finally
have it to put in front of people's faces. Of
the doubting Thomas's so to speak, that had to see
it to believe it. Well, there it is. We went.
I mean, we played for a national championship, and anyone
(46:02):
who told you we couldn't do that again, they lied
to you. So you get to say that, but you
also get to continue to hold the carrot collectively over
your program, over your players, over your staff because you
still got embarrassed last year at home against Northern Illinois.
You still got to the dance, but you didn't get
the job done there. So it's like this perfect combination
(46:24):
of a proof of performance, but also there's no complacency
equels like what did you really accomplish? There's no hardware
in the building. They can't win a conference and they
didn't win the national championship game. I guess you got
some bowl trophies. They're playing for the big one. So again,
how could it have gone any better for Notre Dame?
(46:46):
How could it be going any better? Also, Notre name
one of the favorites to win the national title this year.
I know that because I have a fan duel log
in and they are the exclusive odds provider of our show,
and that is where you can go. If you feel
motivated to put some money down on Marcus Freeman and
Notre Dame winning the whole thing this year, you can
(47:07):
do that at FanDuel. If you don't think they'll even
make the playoff, you can also bet that at FanDuel.
If you're interested in taking Notre Dame and laying the
points against Miami in week one, because yes, that's who
they open with, you can do that at FanDuel. If
you don't even bet, never have, never will, that's cool.
You can go. Look, it's free to look at the
(47:27):
odds over there. But I know a lot of you
you're coming off of you're coming off of your vacation.
You know this is what you've already flipped through the magazines. Now,
some of you sat on a beach this very week
and you read all the magazines and now you know
what you need to know, or at least you think
you do, and it's time to throw some money down.
That's fine, that's the true test of how serious you
(47:48):
are about your opinion. You're ready to open that wallet
and back it up. Fanduels where to do it, and
the wallet maybe even fuller as a result. You know,
that's the positive. That's the benefit of getting those numbers early.
Sign Up for FanDuel at FanDuel dot com backslash CFB
promotion must be twenty one plus and present in select
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(48:12):
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(48:53):
Or call one eight seven seven eight Hope n Y.
Or text h op E n Y in New York.
All right, let's continue, and let's rap with what we've
been rapping with several shows in the spring and summer.
It's Bold Prediction season. Friends. Then we got four of
them tonight that are at least a nine on the
(49:15):
Boldness scale. First up from a Los Anglees, California, as
Steve Austin would say, USC wins the Big Ten, Well
that's a nine. That's a nine on the Boldness scale.
It's not impossible. USC has the fifth best odds to
win the Big Ten. It's not impossible. Okay, if they
have a lot of close games and they just win
(49:35):
them this year. That's how easy it is. It came
out of it came it roll off the tongue so easily.
But I know it's a lot tougher in real life.
Imagine how thin the air gets in November. If USC
gets to that Nebraska game, they got a trip to nebra.
Let's say they were to beat Michigan and Notre Dame
(49:56):
and they're undefeated going into Nebraska, and they got to
buy week before they go in there. That point that
week November first on, you know how long November would
be nothing but conference games. You know how long November
would be. And they got a trip to Oregon the second,
the last week of the year. Nobody associated with that
(50:17):
program has done it at this point. Lincoln's done it,
but like a lot of the other folks, they haven't
felt it. So once they get on the tight rope,
can they walk it all the way across? That's tough
to do. That's tough to do. They gotta win. They
got to go to India and win the game too,
by the way, So that's a nine. Next up, this
(50:39):
would cause great consternation. Nate from Saint Clairsville, Ohio says
he's a long horn in the heart of Buckeye Country.
His prediction arch Manning accounts for four plus touchdowns in
Week one, Texas beats OU or Ohio State my bad
by twenty one plus. Give me a nine point seventy
(51:01):
five on this. Now, nobody goes into Columbus Ohio and
does that by that margin, and I don't expect it
to happen here. In fact, Ohio State's favored in the game,
so I don't expect that to happen. But the reason
I didn't make it a ten is because there's so
much newness for both of them. Really, either team winning
(51:24):
by three touchdowns, which is just three plays, is not
like out of this world crazy to me. It's very unlikely. Okay,
but if you told me that Texas's pass rush just
goes in there and creates a nightmare, and Julian saying,
in that pass offense, Brian hartline calling plays for the
(51:45):
first time, he just never gets in a rhythm, and
Texas turns them over three times. Arch starts three different
drives inside his thirty five yard line. I could see
that happening. I don't think it's going to like if
you told me that's the way that game plays out.
I've seen crazier things. I think we'll see crazier things
(52:05):
this year than that. I mean, Vandy beat Bama last
year and the goalpost ended up in the Cumberland River,
So don't tell me crazy can't happen. Next up, Jeffrey
from Carry North Carolina. Clemson becomes the first team since
Fresno in twenty thirteen with three one thousand plus yard receivers. Okay,
(52:25):
this is only a nine, and we've been talking about
how ridiculously underwhelming Clemson's wide receiver room's been for a while,
but not now. They got one of the best in
the country now, so this almost certainly would be Antonio Williams,
Bryant Westco Junior TJ. Moore. Those have got to be
your three one thousand yard receivers. They had nine oh four,
(52:46):
seven oh eight, and six fifty one respectively last year.
There was some injury thrown in there. So if cave
club Nick plays to the level I think he can,
if those those three guys are healthy most of the year,
they may lack a ground game with enough punch. Brenning
(53:08):
Stool's gone, so they don't probably have a premiere tight end.
I could see this being the way their offense functions.
This could happen. It's a nine. It's very bold. It's
not impossible. So it's so refreshing to be able to
think that about Clemson. And lastly, oh no, oh no.
(53:28):
This is from Hot Springs, Arkansas. Great horse racing there.
I was there in February. Great horse racing there. Arkansas
pulls off two top ten upsets. I'm gonna put a
nine point twenty five on this. Arkansas sneaky enough to
do this. I'm just wondering, well, who are the top
ten teams? So there are possibilities on here. Ole Miss
(53:51):
in week three could be a top ten team. They
got Notre Dame in Week five, that'll probably be a
top ten team. Unless there's upsets early Tennessee week seven,
I don't know. A and M week eight, I don't know,
Auburn week nine, I don't know, LSU week twelve, possibly,
at Texas week thirteen, probably, Missouri week fourteen, maybe, And
(54:12):
then they got to beat two of those teams, and
it has to be two teams that are in the
top ten. That's just hard to do. Man. Also, Arkansas's
questionable this year, So I'm gonna put a nine point
twenty five on that one. Because I love Trey Biddy
as much as I do, I appreciate it. Good show, good,
solid show tonight, good a lot of your sunburn. I
(54:34):
know you've been having fun out there on the lake
and whatnot. It's nice of you to stop by and
we talked some college football. This month is going to
be crazy. There's so many moving parts for us. We
got big TEN media days and SEC media days. We
got folks going on vacation, we got other big things
happening around here. So all the changes are great changes.
(54:55):
But if the schedule looks a little weird for the
next few weeks, that's why don't freak out. Good things
to come in the meantime. Dinner. That's what's to come
in the meantime. For producer Jesse. For director Bradley, I'm
Josh Bate, Take care, have a great rest of your
evening and God bless. Sign up for FanDuel at FanDuel
(55:27):
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and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with
Kansas Star Casino, or eighteen plus and present in Washington, DC.
First online real money wager only ten dollars first deposit required.
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(55:48):
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seven seven seven, or visit CCPG dot org backslash chat
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(56:08):
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