THE SHOW IS BACK + Biggest CFB Unknowns & Jon Gruden Wants In

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:14):
On this date, one month ago. I said, we'll let
change happen around here if it's good change, and a
lot of good changes happen, and we're back now. You
may think, wow, cool new studio, and it is. It's
a beautiful new studio, But that's not what I want
to lead tonight with. You may think, why there's been
a lot of announcements all over the place, and you're right,
there have been a lot of new partnerships agreed upon,

(00:35):
But I don't want to lead with that. What I
want to lead with is we're back the same way
we've always been. We're high a top of sparkling downtown
Nashville tendency on this Sunday night, August tenth, the year
of our Lord, twenty twenty five. And the reason I
don't want to leave with all that stuff is because
we got a lot and I'm in a lot of
college football to talk about, because I haven't been around
here in quite a while, and you know, good and well,
we don't actually believe in an off season around here.

(00:58):
So that month long hiatus must have meant something really
important was going on, and it was, and as you
can hear by this very very thick packet of papers
in front of me. I got a lot to talk
to you about. I'll tell you about what's happening with
the show, but I'm not going to lead the show
with it in the interest of the fact that Camp
Intel is back, Whispers Intel, scoop dirt. Whatever you want
to talk about, I've got it from coast to coast.

(01:19):
I have got a lot of bold predictions for you tonight.
I've got at least, by my estimation, several unknowns to
talk to you about on the show tonight. I am
going to absolutely address what mister John Gruden said down
in Athens, Georgia a couple of days ago, because I
think John Gruden would kill it in college football. And
apparently I'm in the minority to maybe even like super

(01:42):
super super minority on that, but I don't care because
I think I'm right. So if I have to be
the meme where I'm standing there yelling at the army
about what I think I'm right about, I think I'm
right about John Gruden. So we had a lot to
get to. We're back three nights a week until what February,
Jesse and Bradley will be here no more Hiati plural
of high. They're watching us an Ocean Springs, Mississippi, where

(02:03):
I visited for a good solid twenty four hour period
last week. Steamboat Springs, Colorado, Norton, Virginia, Jefferson City, Tennessee.
My heart just overflows with joy. We could go a
million different directions right now. Let's just talk about unknowns.
Let's lead the show with this. Last time I spoke
to you on a live show, what was it? It

(02:24):
was early to mid July, and so a lot's changed then,
but not much has changed since then. We've had a
few injuries, We've had still some lingering NCAA eligibility issues,
and those are ongoing even as we speak. And by
the way, not that I'm going to talk about that tonight,
but there's more than meets the eye to a lot
of those eligibility things. I may talk about that down

(02:44):
the road, but that's not what I want to lead
tonight with. There's a lot of unknown out here. I
think I kind of sort of have a grip of
where we are entering college football twenty twenty five, but
there's a lot Like, for example, I just want to
start with this Clemson expected to compete for the national time.
Penn State expected to compete for the national title. ACC favorites,
big ten favorites are co favorites. They've been seven's for

(03:09):
a long time. Are they really nines? I mean, are
they really capable of winning national championships? That's what I'm
talking about, because we have seen this before. The floor
is very high with both of these teams. I see
no crash in burn scenario with Clemson. I don't really
see one with Penn State. In fact, I have a
hard time seeing Penn State not make it the playoff.
But no one up there just wants to make the playoff.

(03:30):
And what a first world thing to be saying. I
don't want to just make the playoff. But I see
where you're coming from. I hear will be up at
Penn State in the not too distant future. But that's
just a rumor floating around here. I'm normally the last
to find out about that stuff. But Penn State Clemson?
Is it just pretty good again? Or are those wide
receiver editions at Penn State really the thing that makes

(03:53):
it go like that? They're not hurting for wide receivers
at Clemson. But I seem to remember Louisville moving up
and down the field on them not being able to
stop the run like they should, like Clemsons should. So
if they're a seven, that's good, that's solid, But that's
not winning a national title, that's just making the playoffs?
Are they nine plus? Are there? Really? Is there something
different about this year as opposed to the last few years.

(04:16):
I don't know that. They can't know that. They can
think that, but I don't know that until we get
into the season. And Penn State may not have a
murderer's row in the month of September. But Clemson's got
some big ones like immunity. That's back to They've got
LSU in town week one, what I think a couple
of weeks later, Jesse, they go to Atlanta to play
Georgia Tech. Look at that Week three, that Week three game.

(04:39):
I don't know where it will be yet because we
haven't even named the name of the tour yet, but
that Week three game, I hear the snoring. Don't you
guys sleep on that Week three game? All right? So
that's one thing in the whole top to bottom or
top to bottom of the second tier of the SEC.
Forget about Georgia for a second. Forget about Texas, forget
about Bama, forget about LSU. As far as I can tell,

(05:02):
looking left to right, everyone pretty much has them at
or near the top of the odds board. FanDuel does
as well. So Tier one is fairly set. I may
have some minor disagreements with the order, but that's okay.
That's why we'll do the JP pole, That's why we'll
do season predictions, but past tier one, normally we're not
talking about championship contenders. But this does not profile as

(05:24):
a normal year, and I think most of us are
agreeing on that at least. So can South Carolina? When
the SEC, can Texas, A and M? When the SEC
can Auburn do it? Can Oh You do it? Can
Florida do it? Can Tennessee do it? How many Tier
two teams in the SEC could reasonably jump up and
grab the belt? For a long time, we lived in

(05:47):
a world where it was just Alabama, or then it
was just Alabama and Georgia, and then there would be
Bama or Georgia or maybe an LSU twenty nineteen pops up.
But by and large it was like one or two
teams and you were trying to find a way for
something to go wrong for those favorites in order for
anyone to have a shot. Well, look, there's a world
where Leonora Sellers just turns into Superman, or DJ Lagway

(06:10):
does that, or John Matteer does that. What if A
and M's just running the ball for nine hundred yards
per game and they're winning all the one possession games.
What if Josh Hipel just pulls off a total magic
show with Joey Aguilart we think in Knoxville. My point
is there is no elite team at the outset here,
at least as far as I can tell. So that
makes Tier two on a rung of the ladder where

(06:31):
they can reach the belt. Now, they got to extend fully.
They may have to jump, they may have to get
up on their tippy toes, but I think they can
reach it. At least someone there can. Another unknown is
the entire Big Twelve. What I do know is it's
very entertaining. What I do know is I love it
with all my heart. I think Brett you or Mark
is painfully off base on his playoff thoughts. But that's

(06:52):
not what we're here to talk about tonight. What we're
here to talk about tonight is you know Arizona State
brought back their entire staff. They could win it. Kansas
State really going to be down two years in a row.
Devin dan Pierre comes in at quarterback from New Mexico
to Utah, reuniting with an old offensive coordinator there, Mike
Kyle Whittingham, a guy who's averaged ten wins per year

(07:14):
the previous four years until last year. Might he have
something to say about it? Sorry, Robertson. At Baylor, they
get Auburn week one on a Friday night. Iowa State
we open internationally in week zero, but we have Rock
Obeck coming back along with let's just say it, the
best head coach in the Big Twelve in Matt Campbell.
So my point there is predicting this is insane. It's

(07:38):
a total unknown. Everything's an unknown. I didn't even mention
TCU in any given period of talking about the Big Twelve.
You're gonna leave like three or four teams out that
could win the thing. The Big Twelve is such a
beautiful thing. Deonna Colorado, this is Big twelve is such
a beautiful thing. So that's an unknown in and of itself.
To drill down on a specific team. What do you
expect from Miami this year? I've been being asked that,

(08:00):
so I'll ask all of you that because the one
thing that I think we need to do a better
job of on this campus here at Pate State is
we need to make sure that if I'm going to
get trashed for my predictions, which is totally fair and
it is within your constitutional right that you have to
state your prediction up front. So I haven't even made
a Miami prediction yet, but if you think Miami is

(08:21):
going to be trashed this year, that's okay. But let
me know in August. There's a comment section. It works here.
I know it works here, So let me know in August.
Know what I mean to help. Everyone knows in December
whether something went good or went bad. But they're an unknown.
They're an unknown because Carson Back's the quarterback there. They're
an unknown because the offensive and defensive lines profile as

(08:43):
the kind of lines of scrimmage that could land you
in a national championship game. But no one's predicting Miami
to go to the national title game. Half of you
aren't even predicting them in the playoff. In fact, three
quarters of you aren't predicting them in the playoff, and
that's because you either don't trust the coaching staff, you
don't trust the quarterback, you don't trust the d defense.
And speaking of that, Corey Heatherman. Year one, are they

(09:04):
going to make a quantum leap in defensive production. I
think their personnel is a little bit better than what
Danton Lynn had to work with when he got to USC,
or what Blake Baker had to work with when he
got to LSU. But it's a total unknown and they
got a much more difficult schedule. For those of you
who unfortunately and regrettably took an offseason, I haven't spoken

(09:26):
to you about Miami schedule. Miami schedule is such that
if they were to make the conference title game, that
would be their eighth game in a row because the
ACC has seen fit to give I think three of
their teams both of their byes within a fifteen day period.
People say, I'm not qualified to be the commissioner of

(09:48):
this sport, but yet the people who are running the
sport are putting schedules together like this. Listen to this.
Miami plays Florida on the twentieth of September bye week.
They play FSU October fourth, another bye week. They're done.
No more bye weeks the rest of the year. Louisville
Stanford at smu QS, NC State, at Virginia Tech, and
at pitt back to back road games in cold weather

(10:09):
late November for a team from South Florida to end
the year. And if they make it through all that
and they're good enough to play in Charlotte, that is
a third consecutive game away from home, maybe in cold weather.
Who knows what Charlotte has in store for you in December,
But anyway, it's a much more difficult path to navigate
with I would say more uncertainty this year, but that's

(10:30):
what makes it an unknown. That's not necessarily what makes
it a weakness. How far does the Tennessee drop off.
I'm in Nashville right now, and it is not kuth
around here to just assume there's going to be a
drop off. But I have turned over a new leaf
this summer and I am not doing glass half empty,

(10:50):
but I'm trying to pour into the glass more realistic
expectations because even though it's not true, people have accused
us in the past of being a little too sunshine,
a little too, rainbow a little too. Everyone can achieve
it if they believe it. And you know what, I
think Tennessee's going to take a step back this year.
How big is the step back? So there were ten

(11:13):
or two last year, they're over under win totals eight
and a half right now. I bet the under on Tennessee.
I think two months ago. Offensive line, running back, quarterback, defense.
There's just a lot to backfield. There's a lot. That's
a great, big question mark, and I don't really think
anyone scripted it to go the way it's gone the
last few months in Knoxville. Now, I have this whole

(11:33):
dissertation that I issued before we went on break, which
was I think Josh Heipel could go eight and four
and win this year, meaning that the intangibles and the
twenty twenty six and beyond sort of the prism could
look good for him as long as they don't get
blown out four times. But that's an unknown. Here's another
good unknown. The coaches pull I'm told, I'm told came
out the other day. I don't have a big interest

(11:56):
in such things. The JP Pole will come out later
this week. I do have an vested interest in that,
But for the sake of amusement, Jesse and Bradley tell
me that this is the AP or the coaches poll.
Right now, Texas was number one, you know, Ohio State,
Penn State, you know, LSU, and Miami rounded out at
nine or ten. My unknown is how many of these

(12:20):
top ten preseason teams will have two losses or more
by Halloween. Texas has got Ohio State and Florida on
the road, as well as ou neutral site before Halloween,
and so that is arch Manning playing his three biggest games.
His three biggest pre Halloween games away from Austin could

(12:44):
be three and oh In those could be oh In
three in those those are all losable games. Ohio State's
got Texas at Washington and at Illinois. We think it's
Julian say in there, but we don't know. That's still
a legit quarterback battle going on. Penn State. I don't
think they'll have a couple of loss is Bama. Let's see,
Bama has to play at Penn State, Wisconsin, at Georgia, Tennessee,

(13:08):
at Missouri, at South Carolina. Guys, that is all before Halloween.
This is very scary stuff. That's why we circle Halloween.
Just you got LSU's schedule in there. Think about LSU.
Think about all the pressure on Brian Kelly week one.
They've been allergic to winning games in Week one, but
I'm told they found the cure. They're taking it seriously

(13:30):
this time around. I say that mockingly because I am
mocking it. They were always taking it seriously. You just
got to execute better. That's the secret formula here at
Clemson Week one, got Florida. A couple of weeks later
at home, they go to Old Miss, they got South
Carolina and they got A and M. You know what,
they go to Vandy as well. I don't want to
discount Vandy. They're like three or four losable games there

(13:51):
for LSU before Halloween. So a lot of these teams
you can afford one loss, Like obviously it's college football.
You got good on good someone's got lose. But two
losses before Halloween, that's not how you draw it up
for a preseason Top ten team. I talked about the
SEC Tier two, What about the Big Ten Tier two?
Because it is a lot more clean cut in the

(14:12):
Big Ten. Ohio State and Oregon and Penn State make
up Tier one. What is Tier two? Michigan I would
assume people think Michigan is in Tier two. I would
assume mean, I don't want to assume you think US
season tier two. Do you think USC is in Tier two?
I do because I think it's just Michigan and Southern
cal and Iowa, Nebraska. Illinois is in here, Indiana's in here. Washington, Minnesota, Wisconsin,

(14:38):
and Michigan State should be in there if they're taking
care of business, but they haven't been. Anyway. The story
on this show has been for a few years with
the Big Ten has been when is Tier two of
the Big Ten going to be a presentable, formidable group
of teams that could occasionally jump up into Tier one?
Because no one's done it. It's been like closed access,

(14:59):
and that I think has been the big impetus for
hiring more aggressively from multiples of those schools that I
just referenced. But if that's the case this year, if
Tier two is really ready to bite, then that means
Illinois could beat Ohio State. I mean's Nebraska could do
the same thing. That means Washington. I keep mentioning in

(15:19):
Ohio State, Washington gets Ohio State up there. The bigger upsets,
the kind of stuff that really makes you feel competitive.
Balance and parody has arrived to the Big Ten? Does
that happen? And then I got to talk about Auburn
for a second too. It's tough trying to wade through
all the rumors about how Jackson Arnold has looked in

(15:41):
fall camp so far. I'll tell you how he's looked.
It's been a very mixed bag. That's how Jackson Arnold
has looked in fall camp so far. That shouldn't be
a shock, It shouldn't be breaking news. In fact, it
should be breaking news if he was either totally terrible
or totally great so far. But the unknown is very
obvious here. It is not the rest of the roster.

(16:01):
If Jackson Arnold's B plus or better or the rest
of the roster could solidly compete for a trip to Atlanta,
like Georgia goes in there early in the season. That's
one of Georgia's tougher road games. No one's looking at
that game right now. If you're telling me, Jackson Arnold's
playing pretty high level ball. If you're just telling me
he's fulfilling on the expectation many people, me included had
for him out of high school. That's like a nightmare

(16:25):
potential trap for Georgia. No one's even talking about I'm
just using that game as an example. But if it's
not gonna work, then it's gonna crash and burn at
Auburn this year. And if it's not gonna work, it's
kind of like, well, it's kind of like Oklahoma was
last year. You could have good players elsewhere. In this case,
you could have really good receiver room, or you could

(16:46):
have good line of scrimmage talent. You could have a
decent tailback. If that quarterback doesn't pan out, then they
are a five lost team, six loss team. Season goes
off the rails. Everyone's talking uncomfortably about Hugh Freeze. But
the point with Auburn, as has been the case many
times in the history of that program, is there is
such a wild swing of variants in potential outcomes based

(17:11):
on one person. It is the quarterback position in sports.
That's the end all be all about variants. But that
is about as wild a swing as you get in
college football. This year is you tell me what Jackson
Arnold is going to be. Not only could I tell
you what Auburn's gonna be, I could also tell you You
just fundamentally changed the SEC championship race because a lot

(17:31):
of folks have to play them that aren't necessarily looking
at it right now. You think Oklahoma is looking at
that right now and they're scared of it. They just
saw that quarterback leave. He's coming in there early in
the season into Norman. We're going to be scared of
Jackson Arnold. Well what if they tap into something that
you couldn't last year? You know, same thing. Talked about
Georgia going in there, talked about Bama going in there

(17:51):
at the end of the year. Bama fans aren't worried
about the Iron Bowl right now. Maybe you should be.
Maybe you will be. Unknowns they're every where. Unknowns are
everywhere on me. I'm freezing my computer right quick over here.
Happy to have you with us. You know who else
We're happy to have with us as always our friends
at Quick Trip. Yes, we didn't. We don't go anywhere
without them. I didn't even go down to the Gulf

(18:12):
Coast this weekend without them. I counted three, three different
stops at three different Quick Trips, if memory serves me correct.
There was one on the coast on Iten, there was
one in Sarah Lend Alabama. There was one in Kolera, Alabama. Colbrew, yes, gasoline, yes,
friendly service. Yes, it was all there. And man, there's

(18:33):
nothing like driving the interstate late at night and seeing
that big square qt off in the distance. I've been
known to push the needle past e just holding out
for it. We appreciate him. They fuel the Fall Tour,
which we're getting ready to announce this week, and they
are the exclusive exclusive fuel provider of this show. Jesse's
he has not gotten gas anywhere other than the quick

(18:54):
trip in a calendar year. That's a lie. That's a lie,
but it shouldn't be. Let's move on one of my
favorite and apparently your favorite staples of the August time
frame around here, fall Camp Until is back. We got
scrimmages going on. A lot of teams just wrapped up
their scrimmages. First one probably have a second when this
cop coming week, and then most of the sport kicks

(19:17):
off August thirtieth weekend. I got to tell you something
before we even get into it. I'm not going to
mention any names, I'm not going to mention any schools,
but I want to tell you some of the feedback
we're getting some of the dumbest feedback ever that it's
just it's a head scratcher, it's a headshaker. If I
told you there was a chronic issue that a lot

(19:37):
of staffs are dealing with right now power for staffs
across the country, what is the chronic issue? Because it's
not kids getting arrested anymore. Hardly ever happens. We have
chronicled that on this show. There's like exceptions to the
rule here and there, but largely kids don't really get
in trouble anymore. Here's the problem that's right here. I'm
holding it in my hand. It is a cell phone.

(19:58):
And you may think to yourself, oh yeah, everyone's on
their cell phone. No, I'm talking legit phone addiction. Cannot
keep your attention in meetings. We are aware of one
power for quarterback race right now where there is legit competition,
and one of the staff's biggest complaints about one of

(20:18):
those quarterbacks who legitimately could win a starting power for
job is we can't even keep him off his phone.
And they're not talking about in the dorm at night.
That's fine, do that stay out of trouble. They're talking
about in the building in meetings, in installs and whatnot,
like legit addiction. So yeah, I mean, I know, if
you're roofing down in Lafayette, Louisiana, you're forty seven years

(20:40):
old listening to the replay on a Monday, that is
the dumbest thing you've ever heard in your life. But
you're not nineteen years old, So I don't know what
else to tell you. Just if you can do nothing
more than achieve the simple baseline of putting your phone
down and paying attention, you've given yourself a leg up
in quarterback competitions these days. Okay, what's happening at Florida?
DJ Lagway? Have we bubble wrapped him? Prayer hand emojis

(21:04):
here for DJ? How many street fights can this team
create early in the year is my growing question, And
I think it's the vibe that staff's got. I'm picking
up on this more and more so. DJ Lagway, for
those who haven't been keeping track of fall practice reports
out of Gainesville, he's been banged up a little bit.
He had the shoulder thing, he had a calf thing,

(21:27):
and so they've been limiting him. And it's not that
he couldn't play a game. This week. It's that they're
handling him for a reason to get him ready to
play games. But I'm thinking about that, I'm thinking about
how relatively banged up they've been at wide receiver, and
what that does is it doesn't cross those guys off
the list. It's not like they're not going to play
this year. What it means is, if I'm Florida, I'm
losing valuable repetitions that those players would have gotten in August.

(21:51):
And so it adjusts my expectations for Florida out of
the gate. I think the offense could be a little
wobbly out of the gate. That's why the follow up
is if their offensive line is what I think it is,
scratch that, if their offensive line is what they think
it is, if their defensive front personnel is what they
think it is, and if their tailback room is what
they think it is. You know what they ought to

(22:12):
be able to do. They ought to be able to
win a game nineteen to thirteen if they need to
in Death Valley in Week three. There ought to be
able to go down there and score twenty three and
win against Miami a week later. They ought to be
able to put Texas on the ropes and bloody their
nose a little bit. And you know what if they
if they need to keep them under twenty four. You
ought to trust that you could do that. Now, you

(22:33):
hope eventually by the time you're playing Ole Miss late
in the year in Tennessee late in the year, you
can score forty if you need to. That offense should
be very explosive. That wide receiver room is very underrated,
and you are a very dynamic offense. But the more
that I hear so and so's limited today, so and
so we got to give them a couple days rest.
That's okay, that's okay. You just got to have more

(22:54):
than one way to win. I think that's the vibe
around that staff right now. I mean it should have
been anyway, but I think it really is right now.
What about Ohio State? Every spring these days we have
to parse through the quarterback competitions. Some of them are
for show, some of them are for real. And this
Ohio State quarterback competition has been for real. That's Julian saying,

(23:16):
and that's Lincoln kind Holtz. Kind Holt's probably a better athlete,
He's not Probably he's a better athlete than Julian saying,
he probably gives you a more dynamic threat with his legs.
I have thought and still think Julian saying is going
to win this job. But it doesn't matter what I think,
because I think the Ohio State coaching staff believes he's
going to win the job. He's got to take the job,

(23:37):
and he hasn't taken the job yet. That's the beauty
of competition. It does not matter. And what you get
yourself into the longer this goes. I mean, I'm looking
at quotes from Ryan Day. This is going to go
down to the wire. I don't think he's besing. I
think he's being dead honest about that. What you run
the risk of is they play Texas week one. It's
not a layup game in week one. And so what

(23:57):
happens is you could think one thing for seven or
eight months, like I thought Julian Sayan's gonna win this
job for seven or eight months. You know what, that's
worth nothing? And I take you back to what was it.
It was Jalen Hurts and Blake Barnett several years ago
for Bama. That was the same dynamic there. That dynamic
was Barnett was a former five star quarterback. Like these

(24:18):
days you say who, But back then he was a
former five star quarterback. And all throughout spring he had
a leg up on this Jalen Hurts kid from Channel View, Texas.
No one really knew much about him yet. And then
in summer, like Hurts is working his tail off. Still
think it's gonna be Barnett's job fall Camp, Barnett's taking
reps with the ones he's gonna start against USC. But

(24:40):
I mean, Jalen Hurts may get a couple series and
people talk about it like it's a movie script. No,
it's competition, it's raw competition. Well, here's what happened. What
happened was Blake Barnett. If you've ever seen a deer
in headlights, and I grew up in the country, so
I've seen several, you know what that game was like
for him. If you haven't ever seen one, don't go
out looking for a deer and don't turn your brights on.

(25:03):
Just go watch the replay. Barnett had no shot, and
then Jalen Hurts comes in and Hurts took the job.
The point being everything you said and you thought over
a six seven eight month period evaporated in the span
of a quarter or two, you run the risk of
that happening here. The longer this goes without them naming
a starter, you run the risk of that happening. Also,

(25:26):
unrelated note, sounds like they're pretty high on their tailback
room and they need to be for reasons I just stated,
and also cause Ohio State never wins if they can't
run the ball. They do need to get offensive tackle
settled there. Texas famously has pumped a lot of guys
into the NFL, specifically on the interior of their defensive line,
So back to back cycles. Now they're having to backfill,

(25:47):
and because they're so good at acquiring talent, they could
do it last year. Marod Watson, the transfer from Syracuse
has to be a lynchpin there this year. It sounds
like early returns he is, So they hit there. That's
not surprising. I don't think Texas rolled the dice when
they took him. So I love what we're here and there.

(26:08):
I love what we're hearing about Ryan Wingo. That's no,
like really really deep dive nugget for Texas fans. They
know he's a superstar. The country doesn't know he's a
superstar yet. And I really think if there's any name
that explodes outside of arch Manning, maybe because of arch Manning,
it's Ryan Wingo. And Grayson Littleton's a name we keep

(26:28):
hearing a lot about who is former three star guy,
and he's just worked his way into the rotation. It
sounds like he's getting really meaningful reps when they're running
nickel stuff, and so you may see him on the field.
And the reason that's noteworthy is again because they open
against Ohio State. So if I've got a young kid
on the field and I've got an alien at wide

(26:49):
receiver in this case named Jeremiah Smith, and you're talking
about matchups that could dictate that game, that's just something
to keep an eye on. Penn State. A lot of
scoop from Penn State. Good things so far. I've got
the fingers crossed. Sounds like good things so far on
these wide receiver transfers, which could be the difference in

(27:09):
them losing two games and winning a national title this year.
Kobe Hudson's a freshman like him. They got a red
shirt freshman Tysier Denmark like him, So all of a
sudden wide receiver depth at Penn State is a concept
that could be a reality. You're saying to yourself, I'm
gonna have to see that to believe it. That's okay,
because I'm the same way. Some things I have to

(27:30):
see to Like Lincoln Riley having a really good defense,
I got to see that to believe it. Wide receiver
play scaling up at Penn State, respectfully, I got to
see it to believe it. I will also tell you
that we have heard great things about a Maury Campbell
that is a North Carolina transfer at linebacker. Could green
dot him, it could be the play caller there for

(27:52):
Penn State. And I mean that's a team that's really
good defensively. Tony Rojas is there. Expect a big year
from him at linebacker. But Amari Campbell was talking to
some guys that were on the staff at North Carolina
last year, could not say enough good things about Amory Campbell.
And so that's a guy that's overlooked because of the
wide receivers they went and got. But Amory Campbell, you're
gonna see him Like Oregon comes in there in week four,

(28:13):
week five, I think just remember that name because that's
a kid. By week five, I really really think it's
gonna be a stalwart defensively for them. And you know
they got a lot of them. You know, some notes
Bama Ty Simpson's gonna win that starting quarterback job. I
would be shocked if that didn't happen. It looks more

(28:33):
and more like it's Bryce Underwood gonna be the starter,
gonna be the starting quarterback, true freshman quarterback at Michigan.
We'll see. I mean they go to Oklahoma week two.
I mean that's Brent Venables getting a true freshman in
his building in week two. If that's the way it
goes now, that's the only way to the only way
to get better at football is play football. So you know,

(28:54):
it's not like you shy away from that. You're a competitor.
I'm just saying the dynamics aren't great there. Colorado Caden
Salt are gonna win this quarterback battle. It looks for
all the world like he is right now, which is interesting.
Juju Smith out there and Tennessee again, offense does not
look good right now, So we got a waste to go.
Defense carried them portions of last year, so maybe that's

(29:17):
the way they win again. I'm just I keep sounding
like I'm so down on Tennessee. I'm not. What I'm
trying to do is I'm trying to have reasonable expectations
for him. I don't believe just because you made the
playoff last year, you automatically take the next step the
following year. I don't think what they've what they've got
to do is they got to coach the tail off

(29:37):
and they got to find a way to plug thirteen
holes with ten fingers for a little while. And if
they can and they go solid nine and three this year,
that's an ultra successful year. There's a path where I'm
happy with eight and four with Tennessee. So Camp Intel
is back some scrimmages. I'm gonna be on the road
a lot the next couple of weeks. I'm gonna go
see some practices, practice plural practice, and may do a

(30:00):
show or two on the road. But I'm gonna go
talk to a lot of stats and see a lot
of practice. So Camp Intel is the backbone of our
August content map. Okay, we're a little ways into the show.
We're like thirty minutes into the show, so I know
it's us here now. If you're listening on podcasts, thank you.
Make sure you're subscribed. If you're watching on YouTube, thank you,

(30:21):
also make sure you subscribe. So a lot of changes
to the show. As you may have noticed, we've been
gone about a month. We haven't been gone anywhere. A
lot of people accused us of taking an off season,
which is a word we don't even say out loud
on the show, so stands to reason we don't believe
in it. Just a matter of start dates and end dates.
I knew all the while we had a little gap

(30:42):
coming up where we were making some changes and we're
gonna have to build a new studio, which obviously we did,
and we had the right folks doing it, because it
looks amazing and it sounds amazing, and it feels amazing,
and it's like sixty seven degrees in here as well,
so there's no glisten off the forehead like we were
dealing with previously. But anyway, there was nothing bad happening.
It was all good stuff happening. We just had to

(31:04):
take a little time away. What changed, though, well, i'll
tell you for you almost nothing, because we're not stupid,
so we know we got a really good thing here,
and we call the shots here and we're not going
to screw that up. So at no point were we
ever going to sell out as they say. It's actually
the opposite. We have acquired every bit of ownership that

(31:27):
we can in this show, so there's no selling out.
That's not actually how this works anymore. But there's big
behind the scenes production changes that doesn't impact you at all.
There's big distribution changes that doesn't impact you at all.
There's a huge sales engine that we've attached to this
that doesn't affect you at all. Big tech upgrades doesn't
affect you at all. So basically we got the same car.

(31:47):
If you were to lift the hood, you would see
a brand new engine under it, and it's a lot
more powerful, maybe an engine than we had in it before.
But the car is the same. So for you Sunday, Tuesday,
Thursday night, same time, same channel, same price of zero dollars,
same podcast fees, same everything. It's just we had to
rework some things internally. You probably saw the announcement last

(32:09):
week that we partnered with on three in Yahoo's Sports,
and we did. We did absolutely do that. We partnered
with on three and Yahoo Sports. Shanit Terry has been
a friend of mine for like half a decade now,
gave me my first shot up here. I've maintained communication
with him ever since then. And when he left twenty

(32:32):
four to seven and started ON three and started doing
big things over here, I still maintained contact with him.
And there were a lot of things that I wanted
to do and that we wanted to do long term
to where in twenty twenty five it made sense to
explore partnerships. You could almost look at it as as

(32:53):
taking on investment, but it's mutually beneficial. And so we've
done that with Yahoo Sports, We've done that with On three.
It doesn't change anything for you. It doesn't change anything
within the fact that we still own one hundred percent
of the show. Nothing really changes there. It's just we
get a lot more horsepower under the hood. That's really
what that boils down to. And again I look forward

(33:15):
to that being mutually beneficial. But this was the plan.
You remember, I wasn't very open about this three years
ago because I wanted to be respectful and I know
also wanted to, you know, play within the rules if
you will. But this was the path that we wanted
to go three years ago. And I don't mean the
exact boxes we checked. But three years ago, to give

(33:36):
you full disclosure, I had a really really big contract
put in front of me from CBS and they were
awesome to deal with. To this day, they've been awesome
to deal with. You still got a ton of friends
over there. But the thinking was, Okay, your show's doing
really well. Here's a huge salary bump. Stop talking about

(33:57):
ownership of your channel. We're just going to pay you
so much. You don't worry about that, and I don't
believe in it, because we wanted to bet on ourselves
and we wanted the show to be ours. So I
just pushed all of it away, said give me less money,
but can I have ownership of the channel and the
IP and the feeds And they eventually said yes. Huge, immense,

(34:20):
immense thanks to CBS for working with us there, and
we did a lot of good things with them, and
they did a ton of good for us, and we
appreciated it. Still do appreciate it. It's not like I
may never work with them again. But this was the
plan all along because we wanted to own it. We
wanted it to be called that Josh Pays College Football show,
which means ours because you guys kind of made this,

(34:42):
you totally made this, actually, but we wanted full autonomy.
We wanted right of refusal. I don't want to do
anything with the show that we don't want to do
that someone you know in an executive suite three thousand
miles away says, we have to do. I don't want
an ad partner on the show that we don't like,
but it's forced down our throats. I didn't want any
of that. I didn't want the show to become successful
to the point where people who had nothing to do

(35:03):
with building it tried to put their hands on it.
And so the only way to avoid that was to
leave money on the table in exchange for acquiring ownership
of it. We did that three years ago. Since then,
we've scaled it massively. It is the most traffic show
college football show, at least in all the digital media.
And this is what we do now. We work for ourselves,

(35:24):
and we partner with people who it makes sense to
partner with, and we're going to give them a lot,
and they're going to give us a lot. And some
companies don't get it. Some do. That's fine, that's fine.
That's exactly the way it should be. And so that's
the way it is now. Peate State Store is going
to reopen very soon. Extremely excited about that. We got
the right folks running that thing. We'll have a tour

(35:45):
announcement this Thursday, and I'll probably let you know where
we're going week one this Thursday as well. JP Poll,
I'm told is back Tuesday night. It's a lot going on,
a whole lot going on. I'm going to get back
to college football in just a second. But remember one
thing if you remember nothing else, to keep the show

(36:05):
free forever. It's easy. All you got to do is
subscribe to the channel. Because about fifty five percent of
you who watch normally are not subscribed. It's very easy.
Just click the subscribe button and tell your friends about
it because word of mouth is very powerful as well.
All right, let's move merrily along. We still take your tweets,

(36:31):
you know, we still take your questions. Drew from Ashland,
Virginia hit me up. He said, which teams do you
think could be maybe the SMU or maybe the Indiana
for this year in terms of crashing the playoff? Coming
from off the radar? And I thought about that, Drew,
and I thought, Okay, well, by radar, you mean the
teams everyone's talking about. The team's near the top of

(36:52):
the odds board. I think that's fair. Louisville's not one
of those teams, and I think Louisville could crash the
playoff party if everything goes right with him. I think
I'm higher than most people on Miller Moss. I think
they've got a sneaky good wide receiver group there. I
implicitly trust Jeff Brohm to get the most out of
offensive personnel. They've played the portal game, they get it,

(37:13):
they understand team dynamics. They get Clemson at home on
a Friday night, and they dominated them in Death Valley
last year. They're a total portal mystery team. So I
mean there's a there's a floor that's a little bit
lower than I would like, but there's a ceiling that's
pretty high. And it just wouldn't shot me if you
looked up in November and their ten win team. So

(37:36):
they could be that. They're over under win totals eight
and a half, but they could be that. I think
if you looked in the SEC, Missouri's one of them.
I think Missouri's got a very high floor defensively. I've
already taken the over on win total from Missouri. Ahmad
Hardy could be the breakout tailback in college football this
year much less just the sec They know their identity.

(37:56):
Missouri is not some team that gets into the season
tries to, you know, feel their way through it. They
got NFL guys on the offensive line. Bo Prabulah, that's
the roll of the dice. Like, that's the quarterback that
transferred in from Penn State. Don't forget man. He is
a threat with his legs as well. Go back and
watch the Wisconsin game. That's the one you have to

(38:16):
watch if you're watching Perbula highlights last year. But the
schedule is up on the screen right now if you're
watching it on YouTube. There is no Texas on there.
There's no Georgia on there. There's no Florida on there.
There's no LSU on there. This is Eli Drinkwitz, people,
this is Eli Drinkquitz. Be careful. I've got to talk
about Nebraska. Nebraska is a threat here. I just want

(38:39):
to say something and put it out there in the universe.
Dana Holgerson and a five star quarterback with pretty good
offensive personnel that's a winning combination, that's a winning formula.
They were one hundred and third in scoring offense last year.
There's obviously a huge jump coming. How high, like, how

(38:59):
radical is the jump? You've got Matt Ruhle in year three,
which is just basically science. At this point, there's no
Ohio State on their schedule, there's no Oregon on their schedule,
there's no Michigan on their schedule. They can lose two
games here. Ten and two is probably getting them in
the playoff. Now. I know certain Nashville residents that are
already there. They're already at ready to predict ten wins

(39:19):
for Nebraska. I myself am not there yet. I could
be talked into nine. It's gonna take some convincing to
get me to ten. I'm not saying I won't do it.
I'm saying I gotta be convinced of it. But because
I could at least be convinced, that makes Nebraska a
playoff crash sleeper type team. And A and M is two.
I have a reputation in Austin. The Texas folks are

(39:43):
okay with me. They just think I'm a little too
close to Texas. A and M it's only because I've
spoken so emphatically about them, and I've said things I
believe that I have to see it through. I have
to see it through. I think I got the right
head coach there to see it through. I like the
identity of this team. They got really deep offensive line play,

(40:04):
they got really deep tailback room. There really good solid
three guys that I would trust pretty much anywhere. Marcel
Reid can run the ball. I think Colin Klein understands
that they're going to live or die with their ability
to stretch the field this year, and I think they
feel a whole lot better about being able to stretch
the field than they did last year. Their personnels dictating that.

(40:26):
I think they'll be better at pushing the ball down
the field, and I've got Mike Elko saying you better
handle that because I'm over here with this defense. We
ended the season poorly. I called them out at the
press conference last year, and so we got to be better.
They will be better, and it's a challenging schedule. They
all are in the SEC. But I still think dust

(40:46):
settles that's one of the teams that could probably go
nine to three and challenge to be on the outside
of the playoff bubble. This is about sleepers. This is
not about favorites. Georgia Tech, Yep, we to talk about
Georgia Tech. The ACC's open. You get Clemson and what
Clemson and hoops if you will well Georgia Tech. They're

(41:07):
not a mystery to me. I already took the over.
It's my favorite bet of all the ones that we
I'm not gonna say cashed, but I already feel good
about this theme cash and Buster Faulkner is the offensive
coordinator here. Speaking of cashing in, he just cashed in.
It's the first time I think a coordinator has been
a seven figure earner there, and he has earned it.
He was at Georgia. He could have stayed at Georgia,
he could have waited for a quote unquote bigger job.

(41:30):
He took a chance professionally and he went with Brent
Key at Georgia Tech. And now he's being rewarded for it,
and they're being rewarded for it. And they got Clemson
at home in week three, and I'm really looking forward
to it because I think that could be one of
those sleeper games of the year. Elsewhere, they get Georgia
in Atlanta later in the year. There is a disgusting
corporate name on the game. They're playing it at Mercedes

(41:51):
Benz Stadium. It's worth like twelve or thirteen million more
dollars for them. I get it. I don't like it.
I get it. But outside of that, if you look
up and down the scale schedule, hear question where else
are they a point spread underdog at Colorado, No Temple,
no wake Va Tech, DOOT, Syracuse, n C State. Georgia

(42:12):
Tech could be favored in ten of twelve and the
two that they're not favored in are both in Atlanta.
I like them a lot. I'm ready to say some
irresponsible things about Georgia Tech when we do our prediction
segment later this week or next week. So yeah, I
couldn't be any higher on them. Oh. By the way,
I have a purple post it in my hand. Needs

(42:32):
you to make sure make sure you're following on all
the social channels because much different things are going to
populate those this year, like Friday Night Lines is back.
Friday Night Lines will emanate from well question mark because
we don't know which town we're going to be in
for week one. But you're only getting that on Instagram
live at Josh Pate CFB. I mean I have kept

(42:53):
you up to date on what's happening as best I
can on x at Josh Pate CFB. That thing's active
all day. And I mean Tyler, the creator our version,
is in the control room right now, which is a
truck for the time being, but he has just sunk
his teeth into our TikTok channel. It has a million
and one ideas for it. Might I add, we're close

(43:14):
to ten k on there already. They said we can
never do it, and we did it just like that.
Josh payt CFP. You just got to make sure you're
following everywhere. Academy Sports and Outdoors is ready to clothe
your children for the fall, because most, if not all,
are already headed back to school and then you're going
to need, i'm told, sporting goods equipment, and they've got
it for you. And they've got big lead chew not

(43:36):
to be chewed in school, per se. This is not
just a school attire outfitter. They've got your camping, they've
got your grilling, they've got your biking, they've got everything
you need and they've got a nice, warm, comfortable environment
with which to welcome you in. If you can't get
there in person, Academy dot com has you covered. Yes,

(43:57):
this is well known, but it's always worth to visit.
Tell them we sent you. It's not good for a discount.
It just makes us look really good. We appreciate Academy.
We were doing some team previews since we didn't have
live shows. I said, Jesse, show up to the studio
on the last day we have access to the building.
Let's record like fifteen team previews. So that's what we
were dropping on the channel over the past month. They're

(44:19):
still there if you want to go watch them. But
why stop just cause the live shows back. I got
a team preview for South Carolina in my hand right now,
and I got to tell you they could have the
best offensive player in the SEC this year. And wait,
they could have the best defensive player in the SEC
this year. So when I tell you it's a new
day in Columbia South Carolina, it's not just because Shane

(44:41):
Beemer is saying the right things. It's because they are
getting the right things. In this case, it's players having
said that nine wins last year and they got the
shaft against LSU and they were down to the wire
on the road at Bama. It could have been an
eleven win team. Nine wins was really good, though, the
most since several years ago, which just means I forgot

(45:03):
the stat I think it was twenty seventeen. But it's
important to note that in this game, the powers that
be still do not allow you to carry over success
from one year to the next. I took it upon
myself to travel over to South Carolina this spring and
I said, Shane Biemer came out and I said, walk
with me, please, And we went into this big glass

(45:24):
room and I sat him down and we miked him,
and I asked him Bradley about this very thing. And
here's what he had to say. All the attention is great,
but I imagine sometimes it's like you got to pull
the hot air balloon back down to earth and remind guys,
we don't get to pick up where we left off, right,
we start from scratch. We areno at Anything this year's
team accomplishes is going to be because of this year's team.

(45:46):
Has that been a problem or do you guys kind
of get it.

Speaker 2 (45:48):
They've been very purposeful, very driven since they came back
in January, and that's been exciting to see. But you're
exactly right, and that's the point that we've made, is
yet we have a chance to be a really good team.
But also understand that there's high expectations for Yeah, there's
players that are returning, but these high expectations are because

(46:08):
of what we did last season and a lot of
the guys that did that are.

Speaker 1 (46:12):
No longer a part of this program.

Speaker 2 (46:13):
They're getting ready to move on to the NFL.

Speaker 1 (46:17):
We could be getting ready to see something very special
from Lenora Sellers this year. So my question number one
for South Carolina what is the ceiling for him? Because
he really popped last year, but he could be a superstar.
There's a lot of talk around Columbia right now about
the impact Mike Shula is having on his passing game
pocket awareness. Shula is the offensive coordinator there by the

(46:39):
way I believe he will level up. There are people
in the scouting world that believe he will be the
number one overall pick in the draft a year from now.
I mean, they're that high on him, and he is
big and he is physical, but there is a layer
to his passing game that I think will be added
on this year. And if we're right about that, then
you better enjoy and why you can there. That's the

(47:01):
first thing. The second thing that directly impacts the first
thing is I don't trust them at wide receiver. And
I wanted them to do what Penn State did. I
wanted them to get ultra aggressive and go grab assets
out of the transfer portal, and they just didn't. Now,
they could know something about their team that I don't,
and that's something could be they trust their evaluations, they

(47:22):
trust their personnel, they trust their development. I hope that's true.
I just passed Nick Harbor. I don't really know where
I'm looking and saying that and that, And that's the
depth that I can hang my hat on. Who's he
throwing the ball to? That's the second question. The third
question is how effectively can they withstand defensive attrition? Because

(47:42):
while you watched the NFL Draft and you said, oh,
another game cock, I watched it and said, well, who
are they backfilling that position with. You know, they play
Clemson last year. They beat Clemson on the road. That
was great. Why did they beat them? Well, I mean
it's called k club. Nick made plays down the stretch. Yeah,
but they beat him seventeen to fourteen. So the answer

(48:04):
to the question is your defense played out of its
mind and do you have that caliber team again? This
year they were top twenty in points per game, yards
per game, or rush yards per game allowed. I expect
a step back which they can afford. If in the
aggregate Sellers has a step up, they can't fall off
a cliff. That's what we can't have. And that's a

(48:24):
big question to me with them. Their best position group
is on defense, though their best position group is the
edge position. Dylan Stewart freshman All American Superstar, not much
questioned about him, but Kyle Kinnard's gone, Brian Thomas Junior's back.
He was their number three guy last year. They recruit
well at this position, they develop well. I trust them

(48:45):
at edge breakout player for South Carolina, I think I've
got to go with Nick Harber. Although we just talked
about and we talked about the wide receiver room past
him as being maybe a bit of an unknown. Nick
Harber came in. He was the only five star I
ever remember us covering on the show where when we

(49:07):
played b role of him, it was track highlights. We've
had track stars in college football before. But normally it's
like a three star guy, and so it makes sense
that we're showing track highlights. Harbor was a five star
and we still showed track highlights and it was the
most freakishly insane stuff you've ever seen. This was before
Ai swept the world. You would have thought if we

(49:29):
showed that b roll in twenty twenty five, it was Ai,
it was not. He is not running track anymore, it's
my point. So he is solely focused on college football.
A tight end led them in receiving last year. There
was no wide receiver over four hundred yards on this team.
And so it's his third year, same system. He's got
to be a star for them. He's got to be

(49:49):
a thousand plus yard caliber guy for them this year.
Let's take a look at the schedule they've got by
our internal metrics, the number six strength of schedule National,
It's not easy. I do love the runway they have though.
They play a good competitive game that frankly they should win.
In Week one in Virginia Tech. That games in Atlanta,

(50:10):
I think it's on a Sunday. Okay, South Carolina State.
Week two they get Vandy at home. Week three, they
go to Missouri in week four, they get Kentucky week five,
flat out telling you South Carolina should be five and oh.
After that, disrespect to whoever whatever, they should be five
and o. They better be because after that he gets

(50:31):
real in a hurry. How about a little four game
stretch of at LSU, Oklahoma, Alabama, at Ole, mess Then
they're going to give you a bye week, but then
you come back in you got to play at Texas
A and M. So that five game stretch there in
six weeks, that defines the season. Even if you get
off to a five and oh start, that defines the season. Now,

(50:52):
the one thing that's weird about South Carolina is they
play Coastal and Clems in the last two weeks, so
their conference schedule is over November fifteenth. Hayes in the barn.
They're just kind of scoreboard watching after that. We ran
this through the model, as we do with all these
team previews. Best case, worst case, most likely models got

(51:13):
ten and two best case. Now. I tried to push
for eleven in one, but apparently the model thinks that
that little five game stretch there's too tough, so it
sees ten and two is the best case it's got
five and seven as the worst case. I agree with that.
There's a bunch of losable games over there. Worst case
obviously means you lose all of your losable games. The
most likely record for South Carolina is eight and four.

(51:34):
Now stop, because if you're just an outsider, if you're
living in Des Moines, Iowa, for example, or maybe you're
living like Reno, Nevada, you only know South Carolina from
the outside, you would see the computer spitting out most
likely record of eight and four, and you'd say, maybe,
with that schedule and that history is a program that's
pretty good. I don't know that South Carolina fans are
okay with it, which is a good thing. Expectation is

(51:57):
a good thing. It's not exactly the shawsh Ain't quote,
but it's a good thing. It could be the best
of things, as long as you don't torch everything and
burn it down to the ground when you know eight
and four, seven and five actually happens. So it's not
my prediction on him yet. I'll have my prediction coming
up soon. But eight and four. The model says for
Shane Beemer, you're watching us in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Augusta Georgia,

(52:18):
Las Vegas, Nevada. Appreciate you guys so much. You know
what else is back aside from just us Bold Predictions.
Bold Predictions are back. Had a solid batch of him
this year, Bradley, here's a good endpoint for you. Bold
Prediction season rolls on. What are some of the things
you believe in fact? Zach hit us up. He's a
good example of something that's very, very bold. We're gonna

(52:41):
rate it on a scale of one to ten. Here,
Zach from Locust Grove, Georgia said, Georgia makes a lot
of people look foolish for forgetting about them. Sidebar, no
one's forgotten about Georgia. Not a single soul has forgotten
about Georgia. No one's predicting them to go seven and five,
no one's disrespecting them, no one's discounting them. So save

(53:01):
all that, let's get to the prediction. Zach said, Georgia
is going to beat Texas, Ole, Miss and Alabama each
by double digits. They get all three of them at home.
We already got numbers on the game from Fanduels, So
they're favored by four and a half. Against Bama, they're
favored by ten and a half against Ole Miss. They're
favored by two and a half against Texas. You played

(53:23):
two of them last year and they beat you on
the road. You beat Texas twice. You're beaten all three
of these teams by ten plus this year. I'm not
sure I buy that. And you may go three and
zero against them, but I don't think you're beating all
of them by ten plus. Those are just those are
really good teams. So I'm gonna put a nine point
twenty five on that one. The other thing I think

(53:43):
about is I think about Georgia. I think about Kirby.
I think about how much he's talked about his two
deep being filled with first or second year players, a
lot of second year players on his two deep, And
I think about defensively, how that could bite you. Not
be able to get to the quarterback enough could bite
you when you play coaches like Steve Sarkejan Lane Kiffin,

(54:06):
and Kaylin de Boor. Because those are the three you
just listed, I just don't think you're running away from
all three of them. You may beat all three of them,
but running away from all three of them at ten plus,
I'm gonna put that at a nine point twenty five.
Next up, we gotta do some math here, Edwin from Memphis, Tennessee.
He said, ole Miss, Nebraska, and Virginia Tech combined for
twenty five or more wins. This is a nine for me, okay,

(54:32):
So let's do some math here. So the over underwin
totals for these teams. Ole Miss is eight and a half,
Nebraska seven and a half. Vo Tech is six and
a half. They don't like va Tech. Virginia Tech is
six and a half. Well, we added it all up.
Stats and info reliably tells me that adds up to
twenty two and a half wins. So we need to
find some extra umph somewhere. I just mapped out the

(54:54):
season on the bottom of my piece of paper. Here.
If I can get ole Miss to go ten and two,
and I can get Nebraska go to go nine to three,
Virginia Tech can go six and six, and this adds
up to twenty five. It's still it's hefty immunity. It's
a lot to lean on. I'm gonna put a nine
on this. It's not so bold that I call it crazy,

(55:15):
but I'm gonna put a nine on that. Someone two
of them's got to come through for you, and one
of them cannot crash and burn. Next up, this is
not bold at all. Our good friend Barrett Sali, who
is single handedly responsible for the Atlanta Breys falling off
a cliff and into the Abyss this year, he said,
Georgia Tech will make the playoff. They may, they may.

(55:37):
I don't want to put rat poison in the well here,
but this is like a seven for me. This is
not bold, Barrett. Try again, my friend. The actual odds,
if you're interested, are plus seven point thirty for them
to make the college football Playoff. I just think there's
a ten and two in the cards here, and that
gets them in the postseason possibly, and maybe it gets

(55:58):
them to Charlotte with a chance to play their way in.
I just hope that the committee does not hold SMU
last year against Georgia Tech this year, because I could
see that happening. I'm getting ahead of ourselves. Lastly, Brandon Marcelo,
another friend of the program with a spiffy new coat.
I saw he got in the mail the other day.
Utah wins the Big Twelve. Now, the rule on this

(56:18):
show is there is no stupid Big Twelve prediction. However,
any prediction is bold in the Big Twelve because no
one has the slightest clue what's happening out there. So
we're gonna put an eight and a half on this
even though Utah's got about it. They're in a four
way tie to win the conference right now. That's how
insane the Big Twelve figures to be. So really you're

(56:39):
predicting the favorite is gonna win the conference and I
still call that an eight and a half because no
one knows anything. This is fan duel, basically saying, yeah,
have at it if you think you know more than
we do, have at it. Four way tie for the
best odds in the conference. Utah is gonna have a
big turnaround this year. Devon dan Pierre is a quarterback

(56:59):
that Utah fans, no the Big Twelve folks know. He
transferred from New Mexico. He's reunited with Tim Beck, his
old offensive coordinator there, and he's he's probably going to
contend for like breakout player of the year in the
Big Twelve. Good athlete Kyle Whittingham up until last year
was averaging like nine and a half or ten wins

(57:20):
a year. So they're gonna bounce back, like I got
very little doubt about that. Are they gonna win the league?
I don't know, Marcelo, I don't think knows either. Does
Kyle Whittingham know? I don't know. If you want to
go check out Utah, though, you can do it friends
at Seat Geeker back by the way, I seek functional
value partners on this show. We throw Academy gift cards

(57:42):
out all the time. I gave away like a million
gallons of free gas some quick trip last year. Well,
I have it on good authority. You guys are going
to games this fall and you need tickets, so we
always go to seat he can say, yes, we'll partner
with you. What can you give our people? So the
code's back. We got the discount back, so right now,
now go buy your tickets if you're gonna buy them.

(58:02):
If you're not hold on budget may be tight, but
if you got a little extra disposable income, you want
to go watch Utah or USC or Georgia whatever. Seat
Geek is the website for you, And as you're checking out,
just enter pay ten p ate one zero. That's the
promo code. I'm gonna get you. What am I gonna
get you? I'm gonna get you ten percent off any

(58:23):
order below two hundred dollars, and I'm gonna get you
twenty dollars off any order above two hundred dollars. So
if you're gonna buy them anyway, do it go to
seat geek and reap the rewards of merely watching or
listening to this show. You don't even have to thank me,
because that would be that would be rude of me
to ask you to do. I have a controversial piece

(58:44):
of paper in my hand right now. USC's team preview
is something I've struggled with. I've put it off. I've
avoided it because I've been really really back and forth
on what I expect from them this year. So to
set the table a little bit, the external vibes around
USC are way different than the internal vibes. The external

(59:05):
vibes are. They suck. Lincoln Riley is headed nowhere fast.
They've regressed three seasons in a row, record wise. That's true.
I can't defend that, nor do they try to defend it.
But the internal vibe around there is we already made
the defensive changes we needed. They believe they may have
the best defensive staff in the country. And if you
argue with that, you at least have to grant that

(59:27):
they have one of the best in the country. They
believe they hired the right general manager. They believe they
completely reworked their personnel department. They believe help is on
the way, like they believe the caliber of player that
they have there will only get better. Does that click
this year because last year they lost famously. I think
this is one of the most famous stats of the offseason.

(59:49):
They lost five Big Ten games. They led in the
fourth quarter. That's hard to do in several years, much
less one year. So my questions for them, what are
they really made of? Like the first one, have they
Big Ten proofed themselves? Because I watched them last year
and they didn't play. They didn't like feel like a team,
like an operation that was built to win in the

(01:00:10):
Big Ten, which is bad because that's the conference they're
in now. Their offensive line couldn't close games. You remember that.
I just read the stat to you. They were eighty
second in rush yards per game. This offensive line still
feels like it's a work in progress. And so if
you're playing the teams you have to play again this year.
You know how they're built on the lines of scrimmage.

(01:00:31):
They may not have the most dynamic playmakers out wide
like you do, but they can also put you in
the dirt. Can you do that to them? Can you
close out games? That's the first thing. The second thing,
could they win a game defensively if they need to?
Now that's something we don't ask about Lincoln Riley teams
very often. But you know what, they've got the defensive

(01:00:52):
staff and it's in its second full year now. They
got much better personnel there. They went from one twenty
one to fifty six in defense two years ago to
last year, but there were still one hundredth and sacks
per game. So the havoc rate, the ability to affect
the quarterback, that's got to get better. They need better
guys on the edge or better production on the edge.

(01:01:12):
But if they're in a game early in the year
and offense ain't clicking yet, could they win a game
that's played in the low to mid twenties historically? No,
maybe things have changed. Third thing, what if it's just
a bunch of one possession games. Again, cause the conventional
wisdom out there is, well, we lost all those games

(01:01:35):
last year, will be on the plus side of those
this year. But there's no guarantee that that's the case.
If the competitive character of your program is such that
you don't know how to win games, that doesn't always
change over the course of January through August. So something
fundamental has to have changed. It could be luck. Luck
could change. But you know, there's some coaches you go

(01:01:57):
and you look at them historically and their record in
one position games is incredible. Kirby Smart's one of them.
And then there are other coaches, and there are other
programs even I think of Nebraska in recent history where
they cannot get out of their own way in one
possession games. That's because it's not totally randomized. There is
skill and knowing how to close out games. And there's

(01:02:18):
also a lot to be said for folks and teams
who don't know how to close out games. So us
he couldn't do it last year. Has something changed? Those
are the fundamental questions to me that have to be
answered there. I think their best position groups, their wide
receiver group. I think Jacobe Lane can be one of
the best wide receivers in the country. Got twelve touchdown
catches last year. Makailea Lemon can be that they lost

(01:02:38):
some guys in the portal, and yet I still think
it's a really it really profiles as a great wide
receiver room, a dynamic wide receiver room. The breakout player
has to be the quarterback. Yere Jade Mayava has to
be the breakout player. A lot of times you want
to look past the quarterback, you know, you want to
overthink the room a little bit. There's no need to.

(01:02:59):
At USCA. A Lincoln Riley offense requires a lot of
leverage on that quarterback position. You can't hide the quarterback
position in this system. This is not Iowa. This year. Notwithstanding,
this is not Iowa. You don't win in spite of
the quarterback position. With Lincoln Riley. They got to lean
on him. And you know, so far, fall camp intel

(01:03:21):
is what fall camp intel is. But I'm looking forward
to that because Miller Moss is out of there, and
I'm high on Miller Moss. So the fact that it
happened last year, it's not like it happened after the year.
But the fact that this guy now takes the QB
one job there there's a lot riding on his performance
this year. Let's take a look at their schedule. I
have a game that I think is being criminally slept on.

(01:03:45):
It is right there if you're listening on podcast, I
am pointing to September twenty seven. I'm pointing to Illinois
on the road for USC. That is the game the
season hinges on to me because you could make the
argument Missouri State, Georgia Southern at Purdue, Michigan State at home,

(01:04:06):
they're four and oh. I would predict them to be
four and oh. They go to Illinois, do they win
that game? Because if they are, they're five and oh,
and then they got a two game stretch coming up
of Michigan at home and at Notre Dame, which would
largely define their season. But they'd be five and oh
going into it. But there is also the flip side
of that coin where they go in and get their

(01:04:26):
mouth bloodied and they can't answer and they lose seventeen
to twelve, and then it starts to go downhill and
the tires get wobbly again. I think the Illinois game
is going to tell you a whole lot to maybe
everything you need to know about USC this year. There's
no Penn State on their schedule, there's no Ohio State
on their schedule. They got a good by edge when
they go to Nebraska. They got to buy before they

(01:04:48):
go to Nebraska. That's Nebraska's fifth straight game. They I
got a lot of doubts. I got a lot of
questions about them. Still, there are a lot of worlds
where they can win ten plus this year. Telling you
like USC hadn't fallen off that bad. Let's take a
look at what the model thinks. We've got a best
case scenario of eleven and one for them. I thought

(01:05:08):
there's maybe a twelve and zero in the sample size.
Eleven and one, though best case, says the model, the
worst case five and seven. I don't even want to
think about what happens coaching wise if they go five
and seven. The most likely scenario according to the model,
for us, he's eight and four. Now, I got to
tell you my suspicion is I'll be higher with my

(01:05:29):
own prediction about them than the model is. But I
do understand the model's thinking there. It's not like it's Texas.
You know, the model loves Texas. Model hadn't always loved USC,
so the model has to see it to believe it. Still,
you can go right now, though, if you disagree with
the model, and who knows, I May. You can get
a FanDuel right now exclusive odds provider of the show.

(01:05:51):
You can look at those big ten odds for example,
like Ohio State and Penn State and Oregon. But that
tier two, that's where USC is. That's where Michigan is.
And I just I look at the Illinois game and
if I'm betting USC season win total, I'm basically betting
the Illinois game like that to me is where it hinges.
That's where it changes. But you can get all these

(01:06:11):
odds at FanDuel. Every odd you've seen on the show tonight,
you can get a FanDuel. There are odds to make
the playoffs, odds to miss the playoff. You got different
Heisman market over there. You got all kinds of Week
one lines already up. You know you can bet the
Ohio State Michigan game over there right now. Got a
lot coming with FanDuel this year. It's a very very
valuable partner. We appreciate them. Sign up for FanDuel at

(01:06:34):
FanDuel dot com. Backslash CFB promotion must be twenty one
plus and present in select states. For Kansas in affiliation
with Kansas Star Casino, or eighteen plus and present in Washington, DC.
First online real money wager only ten dollars first deposit required.
Bonus issued is non withdrawable bonus bet that expires seven

(01:06:55):
days after receipt. Do you have a gambling problem? If
so called one eight hundred gambler or visitfanduel dot com
backslash RG call one eight eight eight seven eight nine
seven seven seven seven, or visit CCPG dot org backslash
chat in Connecticut, or visit MD gamblinghelp dot org in Maryland.

(01:07:15):
Hope is here, visit gambling Heelplinema dot org. Or call
eight hundred three two seven fifty to fifty for twenty
four seven support in Massachusetts, or call one eight seven
seven eight hope n why or text h op E
n Y in New York. Okay, a couple of more things.
I'm gonna get to John Gruden before the end of

(01:07:36):
the show. But a couple of more things here. This Actually,
this wasn't all that difficult. I was able to rattle
these off pretty quick. We had a question about quarterbacks,
and uh, A lot of people have asked a version
of this question. William from Lansing, Michigan said, if you
had a choice of any quarterback to start at Payt
State this year? Who would you pick? I went with

(01:07:58):
DJ Lagway. I think DJ Lagway at his best can
be the best quarterback in the country. Now I have,
just like you heard, the injury concerns. I've seen the
injury concerns. But I think when you blend raw talent
and explosiveness and deep ball accuracy, when he's at his best,
he can be better than anyone in the country. DJ

(01:08:20):
Lagway led the SEC last year in completion percentage on
balls thrown twenty or more yards downfield, and I still
think there's a way for him to level up his
passing game. Twenty twenty five should be his pop year.
And I'm not just talking about at Florida. You said,
I can have him at Payton State, where I've got
good personnel everywhere and high character kids as well. DJ
Lagway would be my number one. I'm going to tell

(01:08:42):
you who's close behind him, though that many many more
people are sleeping on. Is John Mattier at Oklahoma. I've
bought all the John mateir stop I've got a John
Matteir Heisman Trophy ticket in my back pocket. I couldn't
be higher on him and there are people out there
who questioned his mechanics, who have not the slightest clue
about quarterback mechanics are throwing mechanics. I'll tell you what

(01:09:04):
you want to see a side arm throw. You want
to see different arm mangles. Watch him on the run,
Watch him throw the ball on the run. Watch the
accuracy mid range, downfield, Watch the accuracy. I think that
his improbability is elite. He ran for eight hundred and
twenty six yards and fifteen touchdowns last year, and I'm
talking about his throwing ability. But he can also run

(01:09:25):
the ball. He as much as people think he's got
to adjust to the SEC and as much as people think, ooh,
John Matier, you're going to really level up the quality
of competition this year, he is. I'm telling you I
don't have an issue with it. Quite the opposite. I
think this league's going to have an issue with him
this year. John Matier is going to be good. So
if you took Lagway and I was number two in

(01:09:46):
the draft, I'd have no problem with him. I'd have
no problem taking kay Clubnick if I had to wait
for number three. That growth was impressive last year. I
think he may have played his best game against Texas.
What he was twenty six or forty three three three
touchdowns against Texas. They lost, but he's good. He's a
weapon with his legs, but more so than anything else

(01:10:07):
in an ocean of unproven qbs. This year, I get
proven production if I go with k Klubnick and last
year was incredible. If he just gave me his performance
last year, I'd be okay with that. I can win
with that. He could improve this year, but I mean
even if he doesn't, I'm okay with that. And lastly,
the one I cannot leave off this list. I cannot

(01:10:30):
leave the one, two, three, four five. The sixth name
in the heismanage right now is Leonora Sellers. Leonora Sellers
could end up being the best quarterback in the country
this year. His wide receiver stable does not match up
with maybe some of these other guys, but Leonora Sellers
could just be a monster this year. I don't do

(01:10:52):
the whole comparison to Cam Newton thing. I'm saying, if
there's a guy out there that's capable of collectively raising
the level of play around him up just by his presence,
a la Cam Newton on Auburn twenty ten. It's Leonora
Sellers at South Carolina this year. You don't know the
names of his wide receivers. He can make you know
the names of his wide receivers. He's built like a linebacker.

(01:11:16):
He's incredibly astute. I keep hearing a lot about the
impact Mike Schule is having on him in his pocket
awareness and his throwing ability, because that's not what people
think of when they think about him right now. But
I think maybe by the season this year, by the
time that's over, I think they will think that he's
just He extends plays as good as anyone in the country.

(01:11:37):
So I know you asked for one name. I gave
you four. I'll tell you what. You can take your choice,
and I'll take whatever's left over. As long as one
of those guys is left over, I'll take him, all right.
A late addition to the show, I had to talk
about this, so many of you hit us up. I'm
just gonna pick Derek here. Derek hit me. He said,

(01:11:58):
what are your thoughts on John Gruden's saying he would
die to coach in the SEC I think he'd do it.
Right now, I think he'd do it. He spoke at
Georgia the other day. For those of you unfamiliar, he
was down there watching Georgia practice. I think Kirby had
him speak to the team and he said, I'm paraphrasing.
He said, the only reason I really came here is
I want to coach again. He said, I would die
to coach in the sec I'd ff and love it.

(01:12:21):
And he's not messing around. John Gruden's looking to get
back into coaching. Now. I want you to listen to me.
There's no gray area on this. My opinion on this
is John Gruden can kill it if he gets into
college football coaching, John Gruden can kill it. Let me
be very clear. I mean the right situation, because no
one's going to kill it in the wrong situation. So

(01:12:42):
John Gruden could absolutely win in college football. And for
those of you who say he can't, I know there
will be some of you out there because I know
our audience. I know what my comment section looks like.
Here's what I'm asking you. What is it that it
takes to win in college football that John Gruden lacked?
If you doubt him, if you think if he gets

(01:13:03):
hired it'll be a joke. What is it that it
takes to win that he lacks, because I'm going to
tell you what I think it takes to win. I
think you've got to be able to hire. I think
you've got to be able to acquire talent. In the NFL,
that means drafting and free agency. In college football, that
means recruiting and portal and free agency. Can you develop
players in college football, especially this next bullet point? Are

(01:13:23):
you flexible? Can you roll with the changes because that
has been eternal lately in this sport, And most importantly,
once you get past all that, do you ignite a
fan base? I got my doubts about whether Belichick will
work out at UNC, but you better believe he ignited
that fan base. You're looking for different revenue streams these days.

(01:13:44):
It matters more these days. Do you understand the dynamics
If you're sitting there in fate of A, Arkansas and
John Gruden has announced as your new head coach, you
think Cal did something for basketball juice in Northwest Arkansas.
Imagine what hiring John Gruden does. I'm asking you, I'm
really asking you, what is it that it takes to

(01:14:05):
win in college football that he doesn't bring to the table.
Because I think he'd surround himself with an excellent staff.
I think folks would want to coach with John Gruden.
I guarantee you. I know about ninety percent of the
fan bases in the country would be very open to
John Gruden becoming their coach, and the ten percent who
wouldn't be open to it have great head coaches already,

(01:14:25):
so they don't need it. Which jobs would he take?
Is the question? To me? John Gruden's going to get
a head coaching job. Okay, I'm putting that out there.
I think John Gruden's going to be a college football
head coach. It's not about which programs would offer him
the job. There are a bunch of them out there
who will offer him the job. I believe. The question
is which programs would John Gruden be open to taking

(01:14:49):
the job at, which which jobs appeal to him? Because
there's a thought right now in the coaching world for
the younger guys who are up and coming that let's
say you're at a GI program right now, you don't
jump until one of the top fifteen jobs in the
country are open. And that wasn't the way it used
to be, but it is now. John Gruden's not a

(01:15:09):
young up and comer though, So if one of these
jobs were to open and it's like the twenty first
best job in the country, I think Gruden would probably
jump at it. The reason I mentioned Arkansas is because
there's I don't know, there's kind of a weird tweeners
sort of vibe there right now with Pitt, which I
hate because I love him, But it feels that way,
and there's big money in northwest Arkansas. They've got to

(01:15:30):
go about it unconventionally. It just feels like that's the
kind of place that if this, if this button were
to be pressed, if this lever were to be pulled,
feels like Arkansas could be one of those programs. I
haven't heard anything. Let me be very clear, I haven't
heard a word about that. I'm thinking out loud here,
But make no mistake, children, Make no mistake. John Gruden

(01:15:52):
would work in college football. And I hope I may
even pray tonight before I go to bed. Then John
Gruden gets the opportunity in college football. Okay, Hey, you
know what someone just texted me an irresponsible rumor a
groomer about John Gruden, and I saw it. I see that.
I'm not repeating it on air, but I see it.

(01:16:14):
Appreciate you guys. So Tuesday Thursday, Sunday, Tuesday, Thursday, we're
back normal rotation and we are not going anywhere anytime soon.
So appreciate you guys being back. Make sure you subscribe
to the channel. Make sure you tell all your friends
we're back, because not all of them may have been
tuned in tonight, although we had to help the audience
tuned in tonight. We'll see again in forty eight hours,

(01:16:35):
so for producer Jesse, for director Bradley, our entire crew
here making this all possible. Show goes off without a hitch.
That's what happens when you're working with professionals. All I
have to do is see here and try not to
be stupid. Appreciate you guys. We'll see you again Tuesday night.
Until then, take care, have a great start to your week,
and God bless. Sign up for FanDuel at FanDuel dot com.

(01:17:09):
Backslash CFB promotion must be twenty one plus and present
in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino,
or eighteen plus and present in Washington, DC. First online
real money wager only ten dollars first deposit required. Bonus
issued is non withdrawable bonus bet that expires seven days

(01:17:29):
after receipt. Do you have a gambling problem? If so,
call one eight hundred gambler or visitfanduel dot com backslash
RG call one eight eight eight seven eight nine seven
seven seven seven, or visit CCPG dot org backslash chat
in Connecticut, or visit MD Gamblinghelp dot org in Maryland.

(01:17:49):
Hope is here, visit gambling Heelplinema dot org, or call
eight hundred three two seven fifty fifty for twenty four
seven support in Massachusetts, or call one eight seven have
an eight Hope in y or text h O P
E N Y in New York

All Episodes

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

New Heights with Jason & Travis Kelce

Dateline NBC

On Purpose with Jay Shetty

.css-15opob5{left:0;position:absolute;top:0.8rem;} All Episodes

.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}THE SHOW IS BACK + Biggest CFB Unknowns & Jon Gruden Wants In

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

.css-r6mb8g{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:1;overflow:hidden;}New Heights with Jason & Travis Kelce

Dateline NBC

On Purpose with Jay Shetty

All Episodes

THE SHOW IS BACK + Biggest CFB Unknowns & Jon Gruden Wants In

New Heights with Jason & Travis Kelce