Week 10 Prediction Show + LSU Coaching Search Latest & New JP Poll

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
Look, I love all of you guys. In this life,
in this world that we live in, you can do
one of two things. You can either run your mouth
a whole lot and then go back and delete all
your bad takes, of which you will have many, or
you can have the kind of show that I'm going
to have to have tonight. This is called discipline. We're
jam packed, We're high atop of cloudy downtown Nashville, Tennessee.

(00:33):
It's Tuesday night, October twenty eighth. Fear of Our Lord
twenty twenty five. Now, we got week ten predictions on
the show, because that's what we do around here on Tuesday.
But also this is college football twenty twenty five, so
we also have coaching searches, whatever the plural form of
that is going on in the middle of October, pre
Halloween coaching searches. I'm going to talk about that. Some

(00:53):
harsh allegations have been thrown our way. Now a couple
of them are legit, and I'm going to lead the
show with that one of them. Though, Jesse, did you
see that someone had the audacity to claim we were
biased towards the SEC on this show. I gasped so
hard I almost choked, and I can't let that stand.
Some of these other allegations, I'm gonna let them ride.

(01:15):
That I'm not gonna let ride because if I'm biased
towards the SEC, I have a sneaking suspicion, so were you,
and I got evidence to back it up. I've also
got the japeepole on the show tonight. But we got
a lot to do. We're gonna give away some money
on the show. You like legit money, how about that?
So there will be some winners on tonight's show. I
just won't be one of them, at least until the

(01:36):
end when we do Rominudle Express, at which point we
cross our fingers and we all hope to win together.
So it takes a mature person to do the kind
of show we're going to do tonight, and I hope
that I am that mature person. They're watching us in Asheville,
North Carolina, and Arbor, Michigan, Cranford, New Jersey, and Blairsville, Georgia.
I looked at our traffic, because I do every morning.

(01:57):
I have a data report delivered to me every morning.
Are our subscription traffic is through the roof. That's because
we do the show free and we always have and
hopefully we always will. And I appreciate you guys for
keeping it that way. And all I'm asking if you're
watching the show, and millions of you are now every month,
make sure you check and see that you're subscribed on
YouTube and the podcast feed. That's it. That's it. It makes

(02:20):
no difference to your viewing experience. It just helps us.
And trust me, you have no idea how much it
helps us, and so I appreciate it. It makes me look
really good in the meetings I attend. And that's all
I ask, free of charge to enter, free of charge
to watch, just make me look good in the meetings.
I need us a tire boost tonight. I need a
little self esteem boost after what I'm about to go through.

(02:42):
So what I would like to lead the show with
tonight is we're about forty eight hours removed now from
the news breaking during our live show that Brian Kelly
was getting fired at LSU. And it didn't take me
by surprise. We had a little heads up that it
was coming. We just didn't know when it was going
to happen, and as it turns, it happened three minutes
after we went on air, and so we broke the

(03:03):
news here what we ourselves didn't break it, but it
broke on our show, and then we discussed it and
reacted to it and all that stuff. So everyone's had
an opinion on this. This is one of those that
affected everyone. I don't care if you're a Washington State
fan or an FAU fan, you had a take on
Brian Kelly. And I have looked at it and I've
asked myself, what in the world are we learning from this? Like,

(03:25):
I still think I'll talk about this in a second.
I still think the way that the ABC broadcast handled
the fourth quarter had a ton to do, not ultimately
with whether Brian Kelly was going to get fired, but
the rapid nature of how quickly he got fired the
next day. So there's been a lot made of whether

(03:45):
you have to fit at LSU or not, Oh, he
wasn't a good fit, And I do agree he wasn't
a good fit. So that's part one of where maybe
I whiffed a little bit. But I never really thought
the fit for Brian Kelly at LSU was about what
most people think fitting at LSU means. If we're just
calling it like it is most people think fitting at
LSU means being from the South. That's an outsider's view

(04:09):
of what it takes to fit at LSU. Let's never
been what it takes to fit at LSU because Nick
Saban wouldn't have fit there. Nick Saban fit there because
he was a really hard worker. Nick Saban fit there
because he leaned into what makes Louisiana great And I
don't mean great from a cultural perspective, even, I mean
what makes it a great place to be a college
football coach. He leaned into that. He hired at an

(04:31):
elite level. This is going to be a theme throughout
this coaching search, by the way, So just get used
to me talking about that. And he recruited, and that's
not in exact order. Recruiting probably could have been first
and foremost. He went and got really good players. And
when you get really good players, then you surround them
with an elite coaching staff and you work really hard
and you embrace Louisiana. You tend to win. And if

(04:53):
you win at LSU or anywhere else, they're going to
embrace you. And you know what, all of a sudden,
you find yourself doing fitting you fit, you fit and
you could use a French accent for all I care.
You could speak Portuguese down there, and people need subtitles.
They needed subtitles with Orgeron anyway, and he didn't speak Portuguese.
You fit if you win at LSU. It helps, if

(05:14):
you're not a total douchebag to everyone. Yes, yes, that
greatly helps. But I have a sneaking suspicion that if
Brian Kelly kept his exact personality traits, but he had
done things other than have Matt House on his initial staff,
and done things other than hang out in an entirely
another state on important recruiting weekends, if he had leaned
into Louisiana, I think he would have worked out okay.

(05:36):
But he didn't do any of those things, so he's out.
So I have made a promise on this show. We've
done this show since twenty twenty. That's when we first
came to Nashville. We first at the time partnered with
twenty four to seven Sports, then CBS. Now I own
the show entirely, and we have partnerships with many different
people in many different companies. But I've always maintained the

(05:58):
stance to you guys that I would hold us hold
the show to a really high standard. And there have
been a few instances in the past where I just
had to go on air and I had to admit
that I was very, very badly wrong about something. Now,
I was trying to think earlier today, because I normally
like to wipe this from my memory, so earlier today
I was thinking, what was the last glaring example of

(06:19):
when I had to go on air. I don't mean
predicting a game wrong or anything like that. I mean
like pounding my fist on the table, ironically, like Brian
Kelly pounding my fist on the table. I believe something,
almost speaking down to people who disagree with it, and
I ended up being wrong. And I think last year, Jesse,
I was really confident that the Spring Transfer Portal was

(06:41):
just gonna go nuts because I had been told by
a couple of people I trusted, Hey, get ready, man,
spring Transfer portal is going to be crazy, and it wasn't.
It wasn't, and I was really emphatic about it, and
it didn't happen. So I just had to own it.
And there have been a couple of other times where
I've had to come on the show similarly, hopefully it
doesn't happen very all often, but like once or twice

(07:01):
a year, we really just have to admit that we
screwed up. So Brian Kelly a few years ago gets
hired at LSU from Notre Dame, and a few years
ago I just a little backstory. I had thought Brian
Kelly would fit in the SEC for a long time.
Back in twenty fifteen, when the Georgia job was open,

(07:24):
I was rooting for Georgia to go after Brian Kelly. Now,
of course it was Kirby Smart's job. So Kirby gets
the job. All's well, that ends well for Georgia. But
I always looked at Brian Kelly and I always thought
he feels a lot like what these Southern coaches feel like.
I wonder how he'd worked done here. So I already
had that as like this default setting in my mind.
But then he got so deep into his career I

(07:45):
just thought the time had passed. So, you know, the
LSU job comes open, and I think I went on
an LSU message board and I kind of said, hey, man,
in my perfect world, you guys would go get Brian Kelly.
But I don't really think that that's in the cards anymore.
So you know, you move on, you start throwing around
other names. Well, it turns out LSU went and hired

(08:08):
Brian Kelly. So I was just ecstatic for LSU, folks.
I was over the moon excited because I thought that
they had really killed the hire, and I spoke about
it pretty emphatically, and I said some things back then
in twenty twenty one that have recently suspiciously resurfaced in

(08:30):
the form of screenshots on the Internet. Now a lesser
man would duck these allegations entirely, but it's kind of
hard to duck it when it's just right there. It's
not AI, it's not photoshopped or Adobe photoshop. Just Jordan
Hudson would say, no, it's the real thing. So anyone
out there trying to defend my honor, thank you, but
it's not fake. And if you're listening on podcasts, my
eyes are closed because that's how shamed I am of

(08:52):
what I'm about to have to do. But we've done
it three or four times on the show throughout history,
and I've got to do it at least once more.
When you do clown things, you have to atone for
those things and around here on the Pate State campus.
The way we atone for clown behavior is I've got

(09:15):
to put on the clown nose like such. And for
those of you who wonder what this post on the
message board sounded like, let me take you back to
November twenty ninth, twenty twenty one, eight h four pm.
I'm excited LSU has just hired Brian Kelly, and I

(09:36):
say the following. We discussed this name on this very
message board several weeks back, and I told you he'd
be my ideal candidate, but I never believed it was possible.
Apparently it was possible. If Scott Woodward closes this, it's
beyond a grand slam hire. I have listened to the

(10:02):
doubters and have yet to hear a logical reason why
LSU folks shouldn't be over the moon, excited about the
over the moon, excited about the higher I continue. I
cont notice my professionalism and persistence here. Brian Kelly has
essentially been trying to com no. Brian Kelly has essentially

(10:23):
been trying to compete in the Daytona five hundred with
a prius a prius given the limitations at Notre Dame
relative to college football's Tier one programs. To even have
them consistently in the college football playoff conversation has been incredible.

(10:47):
If you want to know how incredible it was, keep
an eye on the program once he leaves. Can I finish?
Can I finish? Can I finish? Okay, I'm done. Take
your screenshots. I deserve it. I said it, I own it,

(11:10):
and it was what it was, and all I can
do is learn from it. In retrospect, Did I view
the situation a little incorrectly? It seems that I did.
It seems that I missed a thing or two now here.
Here is what I think about it. I wouldn't have
done this had there not been anyone warned me, But

(11:33):
several of my Notre Dame folks warned me. Now at
the time, I listened to them, and I thought it
was sour grapes, because truthfully, twenty twenty one, I hadn't
been doing this very long. I have very little insight
into the inner workings of Brian Kelly's Notre Dame, so
I kind of know what the outsiders know and nothing more.

(11:55):
But there were people on the ground around Notre Dame
football who knew exactly who Brian Kelly was and what
he was about, and they talked for quite a while
about some of the same criticisms they had them about
him there that folks at LSU started to have about
him at LSU. I the other night went in on

(12:15):
him pretty hard, and I was leveling some of the
same criticism. Some of the Notre Dame folks were listening
and saying, oh, we were saying that like five years ago,
six years ago, seven years ago. Yeah, I just didn't
buy it. So they were right on that I was
wrong on that. I had to learn it the hard way.
I mean, there is no harder way to learn something
than wearing a clown knows on your own show and
reading posts of yours on message boards from four years ago.

(12:37):
But I was convinced that. I was convinced he had
tapped Notre Dame out. And I was convinced of that
because Brian Kelly did a pretty good job in the
subsequent years of convincing me other people too that he
had kind of had Notre Dame redlining. Like the way
Brian Kelly presented his time at Notre Dame, it was

(12:58):
he had his foot off all the way down on
the floor, and he was absolutely maximizing the potential of
that place. And if you looked around, you know, you
could use certain context clues and you could think to yourself,
oh wow, man, Now the way recruiting is all the
southern schools out recruiting a lot of the northern schools,
and maybe Notre Name's academic admissions requirements and where it

(13:21):
is geographically, maybe their time has just passed, and maybe
Brian Kelly really is maximizing that place. But then Marcus
Freeman happened, and since Marcus Freeman has been there, they've
recruited better, like they've leveled up in recruiting. Now. To
be fair to me, because I need it right now,
I said that before Freeman got hired, although I still

(13:42):
thought it like after Freeman got hired, So I probably
if I'm thinking back correctly to twenty twenty one, it's
not like when Marcus got hired or he got named
the head coach. I said, oh, never mind, I take
it all back. I didn't do that, but it wasn't
a shot at Marcus Freeman. It was just my view
of the Notre Dame program at the time. So my
view of the Notre Dame program is obviously radically changed.
Never hated Notre Dame. That's one accusation I'll push back

(14:04):
on pretty hard because I actually have a very very
very very fun spot in my heart for Notre Dame.
They don't believe that, Jesse, I'm going to move on.
I actually do, though. But it wasn't Marcus Freeman doubt
it was Notre Dame out. I should have been doubting
Brian Kelly, and I doubted Notre Dame instead. So that
was where I was on that. Now in the subsequent years,

(14:25):
it took about two years in for me to change
my tune on this show about Brian Kelly. But I
didn't do it overnight. I didn't make some proclamation. What
happened was I started to get feedback about Brian Kelly
at LSU because I know way more people at LSU
than I do Notre Dame. So I started to get
more feedback that led me to take a step back,
look at the situation and say, hold on, now, I

(14:49):
thought I was getting a guy that was going to grind.
I thought I was getting a guy that was going
to go all in. I thought I was getting a
guy that took the LSU job because he wanted to
do the same things there that Nick Saban did, wants
a generation to go when he took the job, and
that was not the feedback I started to get at all.
And I don't really care who you are. If you're
not doing what it takes to win at LSU, you're

(15:10):
not gonna win at LSU. It's the most common sense
standpoint or stance that you could possibly have. And that's
when I cooled on him. And then, you know, the
staffing decisions he made at the outset were very bad. Subsequently,
they're terrible defensively. And then I think there was sort
of a come to Jesus moment or several moments behind

(15:31):
the scenes where it was dictated to him and know
uncertain terms, you're going to make these changes. And then
changes were made. And then there were guys that came
back in the building, you know, with a little more
understanding of LSU, and the nose started to get pulled
up a little bit. But anyone who watches the show
or listens to the show closely noticed I never gave
credit to BKA, I gave credit to LSU. I called

(15:52):
it organizational moves because they were organizational moves, but it
really was never gonna happen because the guy was never
all into the degree that it takes for the head
coach to be at LSU to win. So that ended
Sunday night. I still wonder, though I'm gonna talk about
the coaching search later in the show. We got a
lot of games to predict. I still wonder because one

(16:13):
of the great questions I've been asked like twenty times
since Sunday is do you think if they didn't get
blown out Sunday night that he would have been fired Sunday?
Or if they didn't get blown out Saturday night, would
he have been fired Sunday. I don't know, but I
will always think back. The lasting image I'll have in

(16:33):
my mind of that game is how the fourth quarter
played out. I'm not saying ABC was complicit in this
at all. ABC put on a clinic on how you
broadcast a game and you truly capture the moment, like
I think they did a phenomenal job of capturing the
actual vibe. They did a great job of documenting the
critical storylines around the game. And since it's a blowout

(16:56):
in the fourth quarter, places emptying out and so it.
It's basically like part infomercial for Texas A and M
taking place on your field, and all your donors are
witnessing it in person, and all your fans are having
to sit through it at home. And then they're like
ISO shots on Brian Kelly and everyone looks miserable, and
he looks miserable, and they're ISO shots on the few

(17:16):
remaining LSU fans in the crowd and they're all holding
up fire Brian Kelly, Kelly's got to go. And then
the way the game ended, and you don't have any
focus on anything for fifteen plus minutes other than how
bad it is, and that I think that pushed it
over the topic. It wasn't already pushed over the top,
not to mention how contentious it reportedly got the next
morning in the building. So we'll talk about the coaching

(17:39):
search later in the show. I don't care what coach
is hired. I have forever changed my viewpoint on hiring
because of this. I want to know what staff you're
bringing with you, which is always mattered. I just think
so often in college football vernacular, we talk about coaching hires,
and we grade coaching hires based on which head coach
they landed. I don't care O. Truth be told, they're

(18:01):
about twenty or thirty head coaches in college football that
would win at LSU with the right staff and doing
it the right way. And actually that's not the science.
The science is not hiring the head coach. The science
is hiring the head coach with the right staff behind him.
That's the whole secret here, and it's not really a secret.
So that's what I'm paying attention to there. I hope

(18:22):
that was good for someone because I feel terrible. Let's
move on quick trip. I need refueling. I don't know
if they have emotional fuel there. They do. It's called
cold brew on tap. It's inside every store. I proactively
appreciate them because I'm going to be on the road
a little bit this weekend next week, and I will
I will need to make use of the cold brew
on tap. Probably need to make use of just some

(18:42):
good old fashioned gasoline outside as well. They are the
presenting partner of the show No Less. They also present
the Fall Don't Lie Tour. We will be in Dallas,
Texas this Saturday. I'm told that our friends over at
ACC Network will be gracing us with their presence, or
maybe we're racing them with our presence since they'll be
there before we get there and they'll be there after

(19:03):
we leave. Anyway, Eric McLain apparently duck and working out
with me again, No big shot. He'll get there one
day though. The latest edition of the faaldon't La T shirt, though,
is in the peate State store right now. Peytstate material
dot com. Short and long sleeves available. People. Let's talk

(19:24):
about some predictions for this weekend. No one wants to
look at me where Clowd knows anymore. Vanderbilt is playing
Texas this Saturday, and I got some numbers for you.
So this game is a high noon eastern eleven am
local time kickoff. It's on ABC. And I was talking
to our friends at FanDuel, and by I I mean
I had Jesse talk to our friends at FanDuel today

(19:45):
and they took us back to summer. We sometimes it
really really pays to look back and just remind yourself
what you were thinking in the summer and what the
general narrative was in the summer. So FanDuel hits us
up and says, hey, do you know what the look ahead?
No would have been if this game's on a neutral field.
It's actually being played in Austin. But let's just pretend

(20:06):
this thing is on a neutral field in the summer.
Would what would we have made that number? FanDuel said,
Texas minus twenty one and a half would have been
the neutral field point spread on these two teams in
summer Today it would be Vanderbilt minus one a three
touchdown movement on a neutral field between these two teams
between then and now. And again, it's not November yet,

(20:30):
although it will be November first when this game is played.
So let's calibrate our mind properly here. Let's not start
talking upset. Let's not throw that word around. Let's not
use the terms David or Goliath or anything like that.
Here's the reality. This is an SEC game being played
and a point spread of two and a half on it.

(20:50):
This is no different than Bama Georgia playing. It's no
different than anything else historically. Yes, it's David Goliath. People
always forget who wins that matchup, by the way, but
it's not that this year. It's not that Texas has
just as much challenges and potential hurdles to clear in
this game as Vanderbilt does so in terms of the

(21:11):
playoff picture, just a reminder, Texas is probably not going
to be a nine to three team that gets in,
so I think they need to win out. Vandy's only
a one lost team right now. Ironically, they have more
paths right now than Texas does. They can afford to
lose Saturday and somehow still make the playoff. It's what
I'm trying to say. So we don't expect arch Manning
to go. We're sitting here doing this on Tuesday night.
I don't expect arch Manning to play in this game Saturday,

(21:33):
still in concussion protocol. I think it's Matthew Caldwell's game.
He's thrown like eleven passes all year. He was the
starter at Troy latter part of last season. Now he's
not a freshman, so he's been around a while. He's
a senior. Historically, I have loved teams in this spot
when everyone else is running away because the starting quarterback

(21:54):
is out. I'm always running towards those teams. You guys
know that about me. I love picking team playing backup quarterbacks.
I love betting on teams that are playing backup quarterbacks.
And because the theory that I have in college football
is there is something that happens to a locker room,
especially like a high level bunch of really good athletes

(22:15):
in the locker room type place like Texas where the
starting quarterbacks out. I think it has a galvanization effect
that overrides the loss that you have points wise by
losing the starting quarterback. So everyone knows they got to
carry their weight a little bit more, and that more
than makes up for how much you lose in the
quarterback because it's not like you're not going to have
a quarterback out there. You'll have your backup out there.

(22:38):
It's just how big is the fall off and then
how much that rope can guys pick up just by
doing their job at a higher level. Oftentimes, in college
the doing your job at a higher level part more
than makes up for how much rope is left slacked
by losing your starting quarterback. And that's why you got
these results that never make sense all the time in

(22:59):
college football where backup quarterbacks win games. Also, if you
want to back Texas in this game, remember their defense
got exposed for the first time last week. So I've
got a team knowing they got to pick up the
slack cause the backup quarterbacks playing. I got a very
prideful defense that thinks it could be the best in
the country. And they got some really, really weird looking
numbers hung on them last week in Startingville, Mississippi. So

(23:22):
they got to atone for that, and they come home
and the entire organization gets a whole week to prep.
Know wing the backup's playing. This is not sprung on
them Friday, So it's gonna be on Matthew Caldwell because
Vandy is a top twenty run defense. Now, Texas, you
could make the argument that Wisner and Baxter combined are
getting as healthy as they will have been all year,

(23:44):
and maybe Texas is able to run it conventionally better
than they have. But I'm not going to assume that.
If I get that, it's just a nice added bonus.
Texas is ninetieth running the ball right now. If they
get that, that's great. Vandy's obviously going to make them
throw to win and seventieth against the pass. And look,
you ran it for forty seven yards against Kentucky, you

(24:06):
ran it for seventy two against Mississippi State. I'm not
counting on you winning this game running the ball. If
you do great. Look at Vandy, Diego Pavi a lot
of Heisman talk right now. I don't care about that
so much. However, if you do care about it, this
is your spot, all due respect. I don't think the
voters were paying much attention to what you did against Missouri.
They should have been, but that's not how these voters think.

(24:28):
These are the same people who vote in the ap Okay.
Some of these people still have LSU ranked, So it
doesn't really matter all that. It matters what you do Saturday.
They'll be walking you Saturday, and they're gonna have to
do it with Diego Pavia's arm. Texas's top five run
defense anyway. They are in the sixties against the pass,
and we saw last weekend we saw Mississippi State moving

(24:50):
on him Vanderbilt. Here's the good news. Vandy can hit
the cap buster plays. Those are the big fifty plus
yard plays. They can hit them, but they've all been
explosive runs, so they don't hit them through the air.
Texas has not allowed a run of forty plus yards
all season. So if Vandy wins it like they did
last week against Missouri, they busted like an eighty yard run.

(25:12):
If they do that against Texas, it's not impossible. It'll
just be the first time it's happened all season. Pavia
has not thrown for two hundred yards versus a Power
four opponent in the last twelve games. So it's pretty
obvious how this profile is, how Texas is going to
make them try to beat them. Vanderbilt has weaponized the
red zone. We watched them do it last week against Missouri.

(25:33):
They are sixth in red zone touchdown percentage. Texas is
what eighty percent? I think, Jesse, Yeah, so watch the
red zone. I have a high suspicion that our paper
Popper stat will include red zone efficiency in this game.
Texas just doesn't allow teams to get down there all
that much. That's the thing about that. They're both in
the one hundreds in penalties, so that's a total wild

(25:56):
card in this game. They're both top forty in takeaways,
so penalties, turnovers, red zone efficiency basically a typical close
football game. That's what's going to decide this. Here's what
I want to know as we take a look at
what the model thinks. What I want to know is
what did that comeback do for Texas last week? The

(26:16):
FanDuel number right now is Texas minus two and a half.
Our model has Texas minus five, so it thinks the
number is too low. And that's including arch Manning being out.
What did that comeback do for Texas last week? Because
it could do one of two things. It could just
delay the inevitable, which is you're just gonna lay an
egg again eventually, or you learned lessons without having to

(26:37):
suffer the consequences of a loss. We talked about the
whole Bluegrass Miracle with LSU CIRCA two. Yeah, they win
against Kentucky, miracle, come from behind win. They just got
dunk truck the next week, so it just got delayed
one week. Is that Texas did another loss that knocks
them out of the playoff, just get delayed one week?

(26:57):
Or do they pull the nose up themselves end up
being a fringe playoff team and having us look back
and say, WHOA, we didn't realize it at the time,
but they come back against Mississippi State That meant the
world to Texas. Hm H, I am going to take
Texas to win this game and cover. I have to
think in my heart of hearts that my backup quarterback

(27:20):
theory has some merit, and I've got to think, in
my heart of hearts, if there is an ounce of pride,
if Texas fight really means something, this is absolutely meant
to be put in the hype video. If Texas fight
really means something, we'll see it on display Saturday. Sound good,
sounding good, I think so. I don't have a ton
of confidence in this game at all. The model does.

(27:41):
I don't because the model was confident in Missouri last weekend,
and Missouri they won the box score. But last I checked,
we don't give out any trophy for winning the box score.
We just call that a badlock stat. On Sunday, I'll
be the guy. I'll take Texas to win it and cover,
and then when they don't, I'll go to Academy Sports

(28:01):
and Outdoors and I'll buy a bunch of Vandy gear.
I've been accused of Vandy Homerism all week anyway, including
today in my very own city on one of our
very own local radio shows. I didn't even fight it.
Academy Sports and Outdoors will not fight you. They will
welcome you in, they will show you around. They will
probably put products in front of your face that you

(28:22):
never knew Academy carried. They are a longtime partner of
the show. It is getting close to that season. It
is getting close to time for you to start marking
items off that list. You could be shopping for yourself,
It's great. I highly recommend it. You could be shopping
for a niece or nephew, aunt or uncle, sister or brother, mother, father,

(28:42):
equal opportunity at Academy. You need kayaks, you need a
baseball bat, you need big league chew. Lets be honest,
we all do at some point in our lives. Academy
Sports and Outdoors has it and Academy dot com if
you can't get their in person, we got a nice, nice,

(29:03):
sizable crowd tuned in. Just make sure that you subscribe
to the channel and then somehow ask five of your
friends to do the same. That's how we get to
five hundred thousand subs by Thanksgiving, which has been a
little internal goal of ours around here. How do you
do it? Click subscribe the end. Oklahoma plays Tennessee Saturday night,
seven thirty Eastern six thirty local time. Actually that is

(29:26):
Eastern time, so Bradley, let me start this over again
for your post show edit. Oklahoma Tennessee, Saturday, seven thirty
Eastern kickoff on ABC. Last year, this game happened in Norman.
I was there. It was Niko, Iamaliava versus Jackson Arnold.
And where do we find ourselves this year? Not even close.

(29:48):
We've got a guy that was at Appalachian State this
time last year against a guy that was at Washington
State this time last year. And I think we may
have a good old fashioned loser leaves town match setting up. Now.
If Oklahoma loses this game, technically there's still some paths
where they could make it in if they went out.
Tennessee's probably cooked if they don't win this game. So

(30:12):
it's a very, very big competitive character moment for the
University of Oklahoma football program. Here and some not so
great news, a little paper popper of a status we
get into it. Oklahoma only six and eight under Brinton
Venable's coming off a loss. We got to be better.
We got to be better here. I am nervous about
the pass defense for Oklahoma. Last weekend I picked them

(30:36):
to beat ole Miss. I'm a little salty about it.
Last weekend. We're going into that game and ole Miss
is number eight in the country. So up until that point.
To refresh your memory, there was no pass offense in
the fifties or better like I think top sixty. Oklahoma
had not faced a passing attack in the top sixty.
So the question was, okay, Ola missus clearly that they're

(30:58):
in the top ten, how much could they expose Oklahoma. Well,
Trinidad Chamblers threw for three fifteen. Tennessee's passing offense statistically
is better than Ole miss And you got to go
into their building to face them. They're number thirteen in
explosive passes, Joey Aguilar and crew, and they got more
than one receiver they can throw to. Although I'll talk

(31:18):
about what wide receiver ones have done against them. I
am concerned here. I'm very concerned. Now Here is the difference.
If I'm looking for a ray of light. It's not
been much for Tennessee defensively well Oklahoma over the past week.
For me, at least, Chambliss was only sacked once last week.
Very very good scrambler. Joey Agilar is not a statue,

(31:40):
but he's not gonna do to you on the ground
what Trinidad Chamblis did. So if you can get home
against him a little bit better. Maybe somehow, some way
we limit this. But if Oklahoma gets in a situation
where Tennessee scoring on them, Let's say, for instance, that
Tennessee's gonna get into the low to mid thirties like

(32:01):
Ole Miss did last week. Let's say that's gonna happen.
Is John Matier going to be able to trade points?
So pre thumb injury, John Mattier sixty three point four
completion percentage over three hundred and three yards per game passing.
Since the thumb injury, fifty seven point nine completion percentage,

(32:23):
about one hundred and ninety two completion yards per game.
That has also come with a ramp up in competition.
I do understand all that his rush yards are down too,
So just the production from the quarterback position has been
a fraction a shell of what it was at one
point during the season. That's the bad news. The good
news is you can find yourself against Tennessee's defense. They're

(32:46):
not really good at anything. They're one hundred and twenty
fourth and pass yards per game allowed, they're one hundred
and twenty sixth and explosive passes allowed. Tennessee's run defense
has been gashed by Georgia one hundred and ninety eight
by Mississippi State two three by Arkansas two point forty.
Oklahoma suddenly back to back games with a one hundred

(33:09):
yard rusher. John Mattier swears it's not his thumb. I disagree.
I think I may know his hand a little bit
better than him. But I digress. Hey, if you're healthy
and you got a run game that's coming around a
little bit, this is the time where you get right.
This is where this is a time where if they
score thirty five, you score thirty eight. You got to
find yourself against Tennessee's defense or you're not going to
find yourself. Keep an eye on miss tackles for Tennessee, Pasa,

(33:32):
Tegna and Burks. Uh, they can turn seven into seventy
pretty quick. We were rummaging around over on Vaulquest earlier today.
Great site for Tennessee. If you're not a fan, you
need to head over there. And uh, we ran across
a concerning number, and that is that the Tennessee defense
is averaging twelve miss tackles per game. And if you

(33:53):
look at the yardage that has resulted from those miss tackles,
twelve miss tackles per game has accounted for over eleven
hundred additional yards after catch Kentucky alone had two hundred
and thirty. There's like a whole games worth of yards
just after the catch off of broken tackles. Not great,

(34:15):
and Oklahoma has several guys who can make you look
foolish in that department. I also don't love Oklahoma being
one hundred and seventeenth and turnover margin because Tennessee's top
twenty five there. Tennessee, though terrible red zone defense, This
is the one area where Oklahoma can really tilt this
game because Tennessee doesn't stop anything once you get down there,
and Oklahoma is excellent in that department on offense. So again,

(34:39):
before we look at what the model thinks, Tennessee's remaining
road is Oklahoma Saturday. Then you got New Mexico State,
you go to Florida, and then you have Vanderbilt at home.
There is a world I don't know if we live
in it, but there is a world where they win
their next three games. Vanderbilt wins two of their next three.

(35:00):
We have a showdown on Rocky Top the last week
in November, two days after Thanksgiving, with a trip to
the college football playoff on the line, Vanderbilt versus Tennessee. Again.
I don't want to get ahead of myself. Let's take
a look at what the model thinks about this game.
Right now. FanDuel has Tennessee as a three and a
half point favorite. Our model has Tennessee as a three

(35:23):
and a half point favorite. I have lost my trust
in Oklahoma a little bit, and they can get it
back here, but they're gonna have to get it back
before I picked them to win a game like this.
I don't love venables off losses or they're not just
an automatic bounce back type outfit under him, I'm gonna
take Tennessee to win the game and cover and continue

(35:46):
to be on the fringes of the hunt for a
playoff spot. I think those rankings are released next week, Jesse,
Is that right? I think the first playoff rankings come
out next week. If not that, it's the week. Yeah,
it's next week. So there you go. This is the
last opportunity to impress the Committee, Ah, the fabled Committee,
before they released those initial rankings. They're watching us in Denton,
Texas Big game Saturday. Navy coming to town Rockford, Illinois, Raleigh,

(36:12):
North Carolina. I was trying to think of something to
say about Rockford that didn't have anything to do with
the Peaches. I had nothing. We took a youth mission
trip up to Rockford in like two thousand, so there's that.
I don't know. Let's continue, Okay, now that we worked
a couple of game previews in this LSU coaching search

(36:33):
is one of the biggest stories of the year, and
I am monitoring it closely, and I did want to
talk about it for a couple of minutes because I
talked to people all day about it, talk to people
the past couple of days about it. First bullet point
I have written right here, show me your staff. That's
what it's going to be about. In the LSU coaching
search and any coaching search, but especially this one. You
got to show me the staff. Okay. There is no

(36:55):
candidate out there that I look at singularly anymore in
these searches and say, oh, if you land him, ball game,
if you land him, it's done. It's a rap, it's
a grand slam. We cannot use that kind of language anymore.
We got to be better about this, We got to
be smarter about this. On this campus on this show
at least, So it is about the staff you can
bring with you. If I'm gonna hire Lane Kiffin, it's

(37:17):
Pete Golden coming with him, Charlie West Junior coming with him,
it is Pete staying to take the job at Old Miss, Like,
how does that happen? How does that work? I need
to know that I'm using Lane Kiffin's name because Kiffin's
on the top of a lot of hot boards. But
if it wasn't Kiffin, if it was Marcus Freeman, if
it was me, if it was Jesse Feels, whoever, who
are you bringing with you? And if I'm an athletic
director man or if I'm making these hires period, I

(37:41):
got to have a really good indication, especially with what
we just went through here, with what Brian Kelly put
on the field the first couple of years. Before I
know you're my guy, I got to know who your
guys are, who you're bringing with you. So Pete Naikos,
who works in the same building we're doing this show
in right now, because we do the show from the
on three building, Pete sits right out there just grinding

(38:03):
away on the phone, and they're about two or three
times per day where I look up and our office
is completely glass, so I can see out of it,
and you see Pete walking towards you, and I just
put my pen down, I put my papers down, I
put my feet up on the desk, I put my
hands behind my head, I lean back in the swivel chair,
and Pete walks in and I just smile because I

(38:24):
know we have an update coming. And that's what life
has been like around here really since the Florida job
and the Penn State jobs opened up, and it is
still that way with the LSU job. This is Pete's
hot boarder right now. I would encourage you to be
following him if you're not already. I got a couple
of gifts of Pete then I'm just waiting to drop
for when he breaks this next bit of news that

(38:45):
he breaks whenever it is, but right now his hot
board and I don't think this is in any particular order.
These are just names to watch. Of course, you got
Kiff in there. Marcus Freeman's on the list. I know
that's a hot button issue considering they just took a
guy from Notre Dame and it failed. Means nothing you
can take fourteen coaches from Notre Dame. If you think
they're the right ones. Freeman's there now. What we don't

(39:06):
know is will he have any interest in the job.
But that's why you make the phone call. You gotta
find out. Kenny Dillingham is on this list. Jeff Brom.
I've spoken many times, many times about how good I
think Jeff Brom is, how good he would be anywhere.
The thing about Jeff Brom is he doesn't really care
what you think about him. He knows how to win,

(39:28):
you know, So if you value such things, then Jeff
Bram's your guy. He's just he is not the most
equipped to kiss the babies and to take the pictures
and to make all the appearances. I guess he could.
He's just not up his alley. He's too busy winning.
Who wants that he can't win the press conference? Who

(39:48):
wants that? Eli Drinkwitz is on here, Clark Lee, Brent Key,
John Sumral, Joe Brady's on there now. The thing about
some rall that I wonder because some raw would be
close to the time of any list for me. Right now.
I've talked about John several times. He's the head coach
at Tulane. For those of you unfamiliar, I was doing
Blake Raffino's show down in Louisiana yesterday and he mentioned

(40:12):
something on air. It wasn't private, he said. I just
kind of wonder this is him speaking, He said, I
kind of wonder from the political side of things, since
you have the governor involved on the LSU coaching search,
what are the optics of being involved in taking the
head coach at Tulane is that's university in New Orleans
for those of you who don't know where Tulane is,

(40:33):
and moving him over to LSU. And I never thought
about it, and I have no clue if that means
something or not, just something to keep an eye on.
So I think John Sumral has a lot of fans
in that building. John Somerral's got a lot of fans
in most buildings. But Lane Kiffin is the name that
has dominated this search so far. So I'll go back
to the same thing with Kiffin that I've always said,

(40:56):
does he know what he would do if this offer
was put in front of him. I know what his
representation would do. His representation would want him to take
the job. His representation is not him. He is him.
He's probably gonna use that sound bite. Does Kiffin know
what he would do if this offer were put in
front of him? I don't know. It could come down
to a coin flip in the parking lot for all
I know. Does he value this job over the Florida job?

(41:18):
A lot of fans out there debating that it's so stupid,
it's such a waste of time. It doesn't matter what
you think. It doesn't matter what I think. Matters what
that guy thinks. What if he thinks the Illinois jobs
better than both of them, Well, then it doesn't matter
how stupid that sounds to us. It matters what he thinks.
A highly doubt he thinks that. But you get my point.
So that's all that matters. There. You're gonna have to
decide Number one. Are you happy at Ole? Miss? Could

(41:43):
you be happier elsewhere? Have you really meant what you've
said about that being home? If it is home to you,
do you want to leave home? Does legacy matter to you?
Do you think you could rewrite your legacy at a
different place? Just all this stuff, all this stuff is
gonna weigh heavily into this. And guys, that's if he's
actually number one on these lists. You know, we've gone

(42:05):
quite a while now where the Penn State job's been open.
Penn State job comes open. What was the headline, wall
to wall, The headline was Matt Rules their number one guy.
I don't think Matt Rules their number one guy at all,
but that didn't stop people from reporting it. So Lane
Kiffin reportedly number one guy at Florida, number one guy
at LSU. Well, let's just wait and see if that's true.

(42:28):
Here's how you'll know that's true. If he ends up
taking the job, then you'll know he was really high
up on their list. But I can tell you quite confidently,
there are some job searches, there are some coaching searches
in recent history where Lane Kiffin's name has been floated
and he was never a candidate. He was never he
was never on the list for the job that's not

(42:50):
LSU or Florida. So maybe he is way high up
on those lists. Maybe lane Kiffin's image is such now
that it's a lot more palatable than it used to be.
I don't care about any of that stuff. Frankly, I
care about who he would bring with him. I care
about who's on his staff. Just like I care about
who is on Summer All staff or Eli Drinkwitz's staff.

(43:10):
That's what I care about. That's how you win at LSU,
That's how you win anywhere else. That's how you fit.
I will tell you this. You will never convince me
that the working theory is true, that, oh, the pool
is so thin right now of quality candidates, quality according
to who A sports writer, a talk show host, Like,

(43:30):
when's the last time any of us hired a head coach?
When's the last time you vetted one? When's the last
time you looked at the background check of one? What
are your critical factors? How do you know? Now? I'm
a big Matt Campbell guy, so like I would use
Matt Campbell as an example, how do you know how
to extrapolate the results he's gotten in Ames, Iowa and
how that would translate to anywhere? State College Pennsylvania, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, Knoxville, Tennessee.

(43:53):
If the Tennessee job were open, how do you know?
Do you even know how to calculate that? Do you
know who to ask about that sort of thing? So
it doesn't really matter if you look at a hot board.
Aside from peten acos. Of course, if you look at
any hotboard out there and they get to about five
or six names and then say, hey, man, past this,
there aren't really any quality candidates out there. How do
you even know who a quality candidate is? And for

(44:15):
anyone who says that, for me to take you serious,
you have to have been touting Kurt Signetti a couple
of years ago when the Indiana job was open, because
if you weren't, you don't know how to spot a
quality candidate any better than I do, any better than
anyone else does. And that doesn't make athletic directors experts either,
because they screw this stuff up all the time as well.

(44:36):
So what's the science here, Well, it's very inexact, and
I do think there's a lot of coin flip crapshoot
type dynamics to this. But you greatly tilt the odds
in your favor if you understand how to hire a
staff staff properly. I am a believer that when it
comes to the LSU job, there's so many baked in

(44:57):
advantages there. There are twenty there are thirty head coaches
or head coaching candidates that would win at LSU if
they just staff properly. That's it. That's it. That's as
easy and as difficult as that. The other part that's
out of their control, but that they're gonna want is alignment.
An alignment is something that's been oh, I don't know,

(45:20):
maybe in a state of flux there to say the least.
They don't have a president, the governors swinging the hammer
right now. Scott Woodward's there today, Is he gonna be
there next week? What I'm hearing is maybe not. So
I don't even necessarily know. If he's the one running
point on this coaching search, that's the athletic director down there.
For those unfamiliar, I haven't been crazy with the job

(45:42):
he's done there anyway. So if I were an LSU fan,
that would kind of be music to my ears. Alignment
in this day and age, in a day and age
where we are seeing that you can win big at Indiana,
and if you can do it in Indiana, respectfully, you
can do it at a lot of other places if
you staff properly and you have proper alignment and investment.

(46:05):
No one is just crawling over broken glass to get
these jobs anymore if they don't have alignment. So your LSU. Yeah,
are you one of the best jobs in the country. Yes,
I think so. You better have alignment because it doesn't
matter what those three letters look like and how great
Tiger Stadium is at night and all that stuff. The
cosmetics of the job are irrelevant if the criticals aren't

(46:27):
in the order they should be in. So the alignment
piece is something you can't see on the surface, but
a head coach is going to demand it before he
takes your job, and you'll never win without it. And
that could just as soon be copied and pasted for
all these other jobs. I don't know who I would
bet on right now. I guess if we were doing

(46:48):
the odds, I guess I would lean Lane Kiffin without
even knowing if he's going to take the job or
if the job's going to get offered to him. Just
full disclosure there. I just it's still early. It is October.
We've got a long runway here. But man, those conversations
are happening. It's a really interesting time behind the scenes

(47:11):
down there. It's a really interesting time because I think
maybe you know, like six months ago, even if you
told me the job's gonna come open, that would not
have been the biggest shock in the world to me
who's running the search. That may be where things have
changed a little bit for the better for LSU. Let's
continue the game. We will be at Saturday, Miami at SMU,

(47:35):
our first ever game at SMU. The Fall Don't Lie
Tour fueled by quick trip headed into Dallas eleven am kickoff.
Will we be back by five pm? I think we
may be, but not until we see if Miami's for real?
Are we really asking that question? All right? So Miami

(47:55):
is leaving the state of Florida for a football game
for the first time this year November first. That's the
first time Miami will have left the state of Florida.
SMU is five and three right now, but they actually
lead Miami in the conference standings because they're both one
lost teams and SMU's got one more win. They are
coming off the worst offensive performance since Rhet Lashley has

(48:18):
been there. That was a woeful offensive performance last week
and its wake forest. But then with Miami, hey, look
the Stanford second half win and cover full credit, I've
still got some trust issues then I'm trying to work
through with Miami. Okay, I've already been on a roller
coaster ride with Miami this year. Now, Louisville's a good team.
It's not the end of the world that you lost

(48:39):
to Louisville. Some of the issues of the past cropped
up again. Was it a one time thing? Hey, Bama
lost to Florida State. I'm over that. Miami. You can
lose to Louisville, although it was at home off of bye,
but I digress. Jeff Brown good coach. So it's time
to see with Carson Beck because this is the second
worst pass defense in FBS, second worst pass defense. That's

(49:02):
one thirty five nationally. But they know it. See as
if you suck, but you know you suck, then you
can start taking preventative measures. And I have some preventative
measures here. It's not a topical cream per se. But
if you have a very very bad pass defense, what

(49:22):
you want to be is you want to be top
ten in sacks, you want to be number one in takeaways,
you want to be number four in interception. That is
SMU's defense. Is it feast or famine? Oh yes, oh
oh to the furthest and most extreme extent of the phrase, Yes,
it is. So if you get home against Carson Beck,

(49:45):
you can tilt this game in your favor. What you
should know is this has come at the expense of
some big time production days for wide receiver ones who
have faced SMU. So think Malachi Toni when I read
these stats to you. Baylor's top wide receiver nine catches
one fifty one two touchdowns, TCUs number one eight catches

(50:06):
two fifty four three touchdowns, Stanford's seven for one oh
nine one touchdown Clemsons seven one twenty four two. So
that's the Miami side of things. Kevin Jennings quarterback there
at SMU, You're gonna answer season low in passing yards

(50:28):
last week, and he's thrown an interception in every game
but one this year, and he's gonna have to deal
with a top five pressure eight team. So my look
for all the talk about how SMU can get after
the quarterback, well Miami can do that too, but Miami
just does it with a lot more formidable athletic profile
than you know SMU is gonna have. Also, by the way,

(50:52):
Miami's defense is top ten against the run, so they
are actually good pretty much across the board. Here's the
thing Louisville did to them. Got the ball out quick,
so it rendered some of the pressure rate and having
statistics a little bit moot. That is not SMU's fourte
that is not Kevin Jennings, at least that's not classically
been him. So if they're gonna do that, they're gonna

(51:14):
have to incorporate a little different offensive approach than they
have so far this year. SMU has to be good
on third down. They just got to flip their stat
profile on this because they're one hundred and fourth in
the country on third down conversion percentage. Miami's top fifteen
defensively in that category. So that's the way college football
happens a lot of times is you take something that

(51:35):
was on paper and then comes Sunday. That's not the
Jimmy Buffetts on Let's come Monday, comes Sunday, you're looking
at it and saying, man, going into this game, SMU
is terrible on third down offensively. Miami was great on
third down defensively. Yet wouldn't you know it, in this game,
SMU was eight of thirteen on third down. Well, that's
how you win it. That's how you win it. Just

(51:57):
because it has been doesn't mean it has to be.
It's like the entire story of A and football this year.
So maybe that could be like a microcosm from a
third down perspective in this game. This problem SMU has
had this year on third down that's led to them
being one hundredth in time of possession, which is a
stat our Buddy Parker Fleming over at Stats of War

(52:18):
probably values among all other stats is the amount of
seconds and minutes you possess the football. Points don't matter,
EPA doesn't matter, None of that matters. Just time. Time.
That's the most precious commodity in football. I believe he
told me that. I believe that was an exact quote
from him. Those are all lies. He doesn't care. But

(52:40):
normally time of possession correlates to controlling games. Normally it does.
There are exceptions to the rule. Calm down, push your
glasses back up on your nose. I know there are
exceptions to the rule. But it all comes down to
Miami protecting the ball. All this that I've just said,
it comes down to Miami protecting the ball. If they
protect the ball, they should win this game. It is

(53:03):
proven easier said than done for game scripts to just
go how they should. In college football so far, this year.
So let's take a look what the model thinks. The
FanDuel number right now is Miami minus eleven and a half.
Our model degrees right along with FanDuel. Our model is
different from FanDuel. It's just I mean, we're pretty much
calibrated the same way on this one. Look, it's a

(53:24):
warning light game from Miami. If they go in here
and dominate, they're up seventeen at the half and they
win by twenty, great, just just dust your hands off,
head back home, and you got this nice little back
half of the schedule against teams you'll be favored against,
and you should be able to go to work. But
it's a warning light in that if they even if
they win this game but it's really close, or especially

(53:45):
if they lose it, even if they win it really close,
there's a world where Miami wins this game at the gun.
But they're all kinds of flaws that show that it's
a warning light game. Maybe it's not the game that
buries you, but it's a warning light game. I have
a suspision SMU is going to be very competitive here.
I appreciate that program enough to expect a big bounce

(54:07):
back performance from what they did last week. Because the
thing about doing something and it crashing and burning is
you have the least incentive imaginable to keep doing that thing.
So I'm gonna take Miami to win the game, but
I do think it comes in inside the number. I
will take SMU plus eleven and a half. I will
take Miami to win, and we will be there on
the sideline to watch it all our first game ever

(54:30):
at SMU. And as we get there, we'll walk through
the tailgate scene and I'll look to my left and
right and hopefully see flex power generators. It's the key
to a good tailgate. It is, quite honestly. They didn't
ask me to say this. It may just be the
key to life. Is that strong? It may be a

(54:50):
little strong. Could you technically survive without a flex power generator? Yes,
but why would you want to? I don't know. People
live without clothes. Guess they could live without a flex
power generator. I just ask you when times get tough,
when storms come your way, when it's time for the
kiddo's birthday party, and you got a million different inflatable

(55:13):
things outside, when little Johnny needs to hit and you
need to power the pitching machine. When you need to
power your tailgate, why not have flex power by your side.
Myflexpower dot com slash Josh paid extremely quiet. I challenged
myself the other night that I think I could fall
asleep with one running in the bedroom. I haven't tested

(55:34):
that theory yet, but I'm thinking about it. Really nice
promotional idea. Let's continue. I need to take a sip
from the nondescript water jug right quick. Oh this could
be you, this could be us, but they're playing. They're playing.
I could turn this water jug around and you could
see the sticker here. I could do that, but no

(55:57):
one has paid. So instead, I'm drinking like a hobo.
Undescript water jug here. It is water though. That is
where I differ from many of the hoboes that I've known.
And if you don't believe that, you probably need to
understand what some of my hobbies are or have been
in the past. I'm reformed now. But in the past,

(56:18):
have I hopped a freight trainer? Two? Yes, I have.
Have I made some friends along the way, acquaintances, I
would say, there's some fun YouTube channels to watch. By
the way, you get done watching college football on this platform.
Train hopping. That's your next stop. Stormchasing in the spring.
USC at Nebraska Saturday, seven thirty Eastern kickoff, NBC schedule

(56:43):
dynamic alert. We should have the lights going off in
here right now. Let's triple paper pop us. He's off
a bye. This is Nebraska's fifth straight game. That's why USC. Well,
that's one reason why USC is favored by nearly a
touchdown in link in. Nebraska has twenty eight straight losses

(57:05):
when facing AP ranked teams. Did you know that? Twenty
eight straight losses when facing AP ranked teams? Why do
I mention that? Well, it's not necessarily because we care
about the AP pole here, Well, we care about them,
but we don't really value that number. But in the
interest of conspiracy and knowing, Nebraska has gone oh to

(57:29):
twenty eight in their last twenty eight games against AP
ranked teams. Did you know USC was unranked last week
and they didn't play on Saturday. Yet mysteriously they are
now twenty third in the AP pole. Who at the
AP is anti Nebraska? Hoomst at the AP is anti Nebraska.
So we'll get PA state investigates on that. In the meantime,

(57:52):
I hold in my hand a piece of paper. This
piece of paper says this is an elite matchup. The
paper says it, and it says that USC's got the
number one passing offense in the country. It says Nebraska's
got the number two passing defense in the country. Sounds
elite to me. That's what we thought about Oklahoma last week. Oh,
you number one or top five across the board a

(58:13):
lot of the critical defensive metrics. Well, we found out
they also hadn't faced a passing attack in the top sixty.
Nebraska has not phased one in the top fifty. So
is it about to happen to Nebraska the way it
happened to Oklahoma last week? Lemon Lane big time names
for us. He should have success here, But let's just

(58:35):
say they don't. What if they're relatively held in check?
Tall task. But what if they're relatively held in check
by Matt Ruhle and the guys at Nebraska. Well, I
would respond with this, do you know what this is?
If you're a USC, I mean, Lincoln Riley, do you
guys know what you're gotten yourself into here? A Big
ten football game in November, that's what you've gotten yourself into.

(59:00):
And you shouldn't be scared about it. You should embrace it.
It wasn't that long ago. You guys ran the ball
down Michigan's throat in the coliseum. You didn't do it
on the road, but you did it. You won a
Big ten game out Big tenning a Big Ten opponent.
Why can't you do it again? Minnesota had a one

(59:21):
eighty six to thirty six rushing yard advantage on Nebraska,
Michigan out rushed him two eighty six to forty three.
Why can't you do that? What you've got stud receivers. Yeah,
you got a quarterback that should be able to get
it done through the air. But if they don't, just
run the ball. Now, I know you're a little deficient
in the depth department there right now, But this is

(59:41):
USC man, this is the Big Ten, this is November.
This is when winning happens. Nebraska one hundred and twenty eighth,
then sacks allowed USC fifteenth. So not only should you
be able to run the ball, you should be able
to pressure the quarterback as well. So a couple of
critical game factors there tilt Trojans and IT profiles. Now

(01:00:02):
I'm gonna tell you what IT profiles as again, We're
gonna go back to the piece of paper here. You
hear that. You know what that sound is. That is
a game profiling as a plus matchup for Nebraska through
the air. Here's how I see it. Emmitt Johnson got
to give him twenty plus carries. In games where Nebraska

(01:00:23):
gives that kid twenty plus carries, they are three and
oh against the powerful. When he doesn't carry it twenty times,
they are one and two. And in those two losses,
Dylan Riola has taken more sacks than in the six
wins combined. So USC pass defense eightieth in the country.

(01:00:43):
You still need to run the ball. It comes down
to the run for both teams. Don't get so focused
on the shiny objects at receiver. Don't get so focused
on Ryol and Mayava. Yes they'll end up making plays
and maybe they decide the games, but it's on the
back of hopefully good rushing attacks for each or either
one of them. Do I have trust issues with USC

(01:01:06):
travel trust? Yeah? I do. We saw what happened last
time you went on the road against Notre Dame. We
saw earlier in the season they went to Illinois and lost,
and this is their next opportunity at Nebraska. It's November, man,
Let's take a look at what the model thinks. FanDuel
number right now is USC minus six and a half.
Model only has USC minus four. Model leans Nebraska a

(01:01:29):
little bit more. I don't have a feel on the game,
but I have it as a very tight game. So
I am doing what I don't really like to do,
and I've already done it once in the game. But
I really do think this is a very very close,
one possession type game. I'm not betting it. I think
USC's gonna find a way, really really close to win
this game. I'm not laying six and a half, so

(01:01:52):
if I'm betting this game with the points, I'm taking
Nebraska plus six and a half. But I do think
USC is going to win the game outright nose itches
and that's the bottom Minchael stone Cold said so, but yeah,
that's a if you can't keep losing these games on
the road, man, Like USC is still in this thing too.
I wanted to say Nebraska was, but I think that
crashed and burned or maybe it didn't. Who knows, maybe

(01:02:14):
it didn't. I got a very important post it note.
I need to peel it off and put it right
here because we have an accusation that we have to address.
All Right, Norman, friend of the program in Tampa, he said,
the AP pole already has SEC bias. After watching the
Sunday show, I'm starting to think you do as well.

(01:02:36):
Don't forget other leagues exist too, Norman. I know other
leagues exist. I know that because we talk about the
other leagues on the show. But I assume, Norman, that
you're referring to how disproportionately SEC heavy the Sunday show was.
It absolutely was. Minute by minute, it was probably our
most SEC heavy show that we've ever done here. But

(01:02:58):
I ask you, Norman, did you look at the Slate
last week? Sunday's a reaction show, so we're reacting to
the most noteworthy games. Did you look at last week Slate?
Remember what we're doing here, We're doing a national college
football show, and I look, I've told you my perfect
worldview is the PAC twelve still exists, and I'm talking
about PAC twelve games, and I'm talking about games all

(01:03:20):
over the country. That wasn't the reality of the landscape
last week. So last week we had ole Miss Oklahoma,
we had Auburn, Arkansas. We had BAMA, South Carolina, Missouri,
Vanderbilt A, and MLSU. That was the slate that the
SEC offered, and we did reactions I think to all

(01:03:42):
those games on Sunday. I've asked several people because I've
gotten this feedback a lot this week, where else would
you have gone? What you're hosting a college football show,
It's a national show on a Sunday. Where else would
you have gone? Would you really have dedicated eight plus
minutes to UCLA Indiana? If you have done it for
Brigham Young Iowa State, even as your viewership indicates that

(01:04:05):
people didn't really have a lot of interest in you
talking about that, I'm being honest with you. I don't
stack the show for me. If I stacked the show
for me, I talk Iowa State until your ears bled.
I don't stack the show for me. I format it
for you. We fall right in line with what your
interest says you want to listen to. Would you have
done something? Would you have done eight minutes on Wisconsin, Oregon?

(01:04:28):
Ohio State was on a buy, we couldn't talk about them,
Northwestern Nebraska? Where else would you have gone? Is what
I'm trying to ask. So it was SEC heavy. It's
not biased. Contrary to semi popular belief out there, I'd
much rather spread the peanut butter across the bread than
have big globs of it in the southeastern corner. It's

(01:04:50):
pretty vivid. I reflect your preferences. I don't know what
else to tell you. And if you don't believe me
on that, if I got SEC bias on this show,
you do as well. I am not a big TV
ratings guy. We hardly ever talk about him on the show.
But from a viewership perspective. From an interest perspective, the
Big Ten has killed this this year. The Big ten

(01:05:13):
schedule just sucks this year. It's been terrible. I used
to work at CBS. We had the SEC Game of
the Week contract for a long time, and towards the
time that I left there, they shifted over to having
a Big Ten contract. They don't even get their first
pick of that game. The CBS three thirty Game of

(01:05:33):
the Week is a historic inventory piece on like a
Saturday slate of games. I love it. I think it's
second to none production wise. Friend of the program Jenny
Dell on the sideline, I mean Craig Silver in the truck,
like love all them love all those guys and girls.
This has been their lineup so far this year. Nevada,

(01:05:53):
Penn State, Oklahoma State, Oregon, USC, Purdue. We were at Michigan, Nebraska,
Ohio State washing solid game, Penn State at UCLA, Indiana
at Oregon was a really good game. Ohio State at Wisconsin,
no one watched it. Minnesota at Iowa. That's for Florida Rosedale.
That's been the lineup. The Big Ten has not held

(01:06:14):
up their end of the bargain, which is ironic because
as of right now, I think the two best teams
in the country are in the Big Ten. Oregon may
end up still being one of the best teams in
the country. It's not a knock on the top of
the conference, but the depth is not there. Wisconsin has
not done the job, Michigan State, Nebraska, like these teams

(01:06:35):
that should be better than they are, they're not and
as a result, it does not compare from an audience
interest perspective, like does this make sense to anyone? It's
not what I want to be, it's what is. I
just swear to you guys. If you look at the numbers,
I look at our internals, I don't think you do

(01:06:55):
the show any differently. This weekend, by the way, is
a really good example of this of how the SEC
is extremely deep, but it's compacted. So if you want
to argue with me, oh dude, Ohio State's better than
any team in the SEC, I think you're right. But
that's not what we're talking about here. We're talking about
what people are interested in, and we're talking about the

(01:07:16):
depth overall of the SEC that things so compacted. Right now,
here's a good example. Ohio State plays Penn State this weekend.
Georgia plays Florida this weekend. Okay, so, Ohio State and
Georgia are two teams very much alive in the national
championship picture in the SEC and Big Ten championship pictures,
and Penn State's season is done and Florida season is done.

(01:07:41):
The spread on Ohio State Penn State is twenty and
a half. Do you know what the spread on Georgia
Florida is? It's seven and a half. So even the
games featuring the number two or three SEC team versus
the number nine SEC team are such that anything could
happen on that given Saturday, that's not the case in
the Big Ten. It's just not the case. Ohio State's

(01:08:04):
a great team, probably the best in the country right now.
I don't know, like when's the last time we even
did a game breakdown on their game. So also, like,
if you look at the depth of those leagues, the
SEC number eight through thirteen is Missouri, Oklahoma, Florida, LSU, Auburn,
South Carolina. South Carolina's the tail in there. I just

(01:08:25):
watched South Carolina play Alabama. I think South Carolina may
have had the three best athletes on the field. Dylan
Stewart is on South Carolina's team, Eleonora Sellers is over there,
Nick Harbor's over there. I'm not saying that about Rutgers.
That's the thirteenth best team in the Big Ten, or
Maryland or Illinois or UCLA or Washington or Northwestern. That's

(01:08:46):
eight through thirteen in the Big Ten. So it's not
really comparable. And when you've got matchups and the SEC
has not or the Big Ten rather has not developed
better depth of interest, I don't know what we're supposed
to do. It's not just a Big Ten problem alb.
The ACC's just as much to blame. So conference expansion
is really to blame. More so than anything but dynamic rosters,

(01:09:08):
engaged fan bases, organic interest. That's how we're stacking the show.
So if there's bias there, that's bias. I've already told
you what my dream world in college football is. My
dream world is USC's on fire, Oregon's on fire, Washington's
on fire, Arizona State's rolling, Nebraska's a national title contender,
Miami's got their act together, so does Florida State, so

(01:09:29):
does Clemson. Virginia Tech is back, Michigan State is doing
what they're supposed to, Wisconsin's doing what they're supposed to,
Penn State's doing what they're supposed to do. That's not
the world we live in right now. It's just not
twenty twenty five. That's not the world we live in
right now. So I'm gonna I'm gonna say this. I
don't mean it to be like negative or rude or anything,

(01:09:52):
but this platform is free for anyone to do any
kind of show they want. You can start yours today
if you want, and you want to start one, and
you want to go cover the games that you want
to cover, the teams you want to cover, have at it.
I may even go subscribe and listen to it. But
the way we do this show is I follow you,
I follow you, and when you show me that you're

(01:10:14):
not really interested in something, I'm not going to continue
to put it in the show. What we do do
on Sunday nights is we take the games that we're
not going to give individual breakdowns to and I do
like added takeaways, and we we'll just hammer through them
because we hit a lot of stuff on Sunday. Like,
anyone who says we don't talk about anything other than
SEC is just lying. They're just lying, and so I
don't really need to defend us against that. But yeah,

(01:10:36):
it was a very SEC heavy show Sunday. I don't
know how I would have done the show any other way.
If you're looking for tickets to non SEC games, then
I have good news for you. We can get your discount.
You can use this for SEC games too, though. You
can go to seat geek if you guys are looking
for it. I had someone DM me today and ask
what was the promo code for the discount at seat geek. Well,

(01:10:56):
it's pay ten pat E one zero, So I'm gonna
get you ten percent off orders I think up to
two hundred dollars yeah, and then any order over two
hundred dollars, I'll just get you twenty dollars off. So
I know, I know tickets aren't cheap for these big games,
but they can be a little bit more affordable if
you go to seat Geek and you use Pat one zero.

(01:11:19):
JP poles out. I'm waiting, Bradley, hold on a second.
All right, here we go, JP pole is out. These
are not rankings. We do those on Thursday. This has
nothing to do with the AP. These are not teams
that are ranked. These are not rankings. These are power ratings.
So this absolutely is the model telling us what order

(01:11:39):
it would favor these teams against each other on a
neutral field. So a couple of things to note before
we get into it here. There is some separation starting
to happen at the top of the SEC. We thought
that in the preseason. Remember in the preseason, everyone told
you at media days and stuff, Georgia Texas out, Labama, LSU,

(01:12:00):
those were going to be the top four and there
was gonna be a little separation, which I thought was
kind of foolish, but that's what people said. Well, it
turns out we do have a top four and then
a little bit of a separation, but the top four
is A and M and Alabama and Ole Miss in Georgia.
Those are the top four. We'll get to that in
a second. Also very interesting to note as we head

(01:12:22):
into this weekend, Vanderbilt's playing Texas. Very interesting to note.
Texas has they're down ten points in the model off
of their preseason power rating. Vandy is a plus seven
I think off of their preseason rating, so in the
net we have a seventeen point adjustment in that particular

(01:12:45):
matchup over what the number would have been on a
neutral field in the preseason. So let's dive in. Iowa
is number twenty, which is important to note because they're
not ranked in the AP poll right now, which is
pathetic and although this is not meant to be a
ranking I wish should be ranked in the A people
LSU is nineteen, Vanderbilt's eighteen. Louisville is seventeen, so Missouri

(01:13:11):
at sixteen is not With the quarterback injury factored in,
we do need to adjust that because sometimes when guys
are out but they're going to be back soon, we
don't remove them, and quarterback sometimes is worth a few points.
We still have Boprabula in there. I didn't notice that
until too late today. There's not a huge gap between
him and the backup there. Maybe a couple of points, though,

(01:13:34):
so I would venture to think Missouri, once we make
that adjustment, may fall out of the top twenty. But
right now they're number sixteen, USC is fifteen. Some interesting
movement in the Big twelve here, Texas Tech is fourteenth
and Oklahoma's thirteenth, in Utah is twelve. The Model actually
has Utah's the highest power rated team in the Big twelve.

(01:13:57):
That is a change. Utah's up four spots from last week,
and they overtook Texas Tech. Now you may think to yourself, wait,
didn't they already play? Yes? They did, and didn't they
play in Utah's home building? Yes, and didn't Texas Tech
roll them? They did? So what does this mean? It

(01:14:20):
means the model would favor Utah against Texas Tech if
they played in the Big twelve title game right now,
And I'll have to hit FanDuel up and see what
they think about that. But yeah, just a little interesting
thing to note. That's been a trend for a few weeks.
I've been telling you for a few weeks if those
two teams play, that spread's not going to be nearly
as big, at least in the model as you think

(01:14:40):
it may be. Texas is at eleven. Whoo. So here
we are. We're at the week of this game between
Texas and Vanderbilt, and everyone's been wondering, Oh, what would
the spread be? What would the spread be? Well without Arch?
Now this is with Arch, but without Arch. Texas a
short favorite at home, but Texas is an implied one

(01:15:04):
point dog on the neutral field. That shows you the
model shocker of the year here is a little bit
higher on Texas than FanDuel is. I know it's not
like the model to be drunk on Texas, but it
is just this. Once we continue shame on the model.
Tennessee is in the top ten. Tennessee's at number ten,

(01:15:27):
Miami is at number nine. Miami dropped two spots. I
think the model looked at that first half performance last
week and set home on a second. I think that's
all it said. We've got Notre Dame at number eight,
So Notre Dame's ahead of Miami where I think they
should be. Oregon's number seven. Oregon is down four spots.

(01:15:49):
They struggled against Wisconsin. It was in a rainstorm. I
know a lot of you didn't see that. It was
gross weather. They beat Wisconsin. The Model did ding them
because they performed well below expectation. They play at Iowa
next week. Iowa's number twenty. That's gonna be a tough
game for them. Don't just overlook that. People keep saying, Oh, Oregon, man,

(01:16:11):
they've got a two game season left. They got USC
and Washington at the end of the year. They got
Iowa next week. Let's keep an eye on that. Georgia
is at number six Top five. Ole Miss has cracked
the top five. They're up four spots. Ole Miss is
number five. Believe that's the highest they've been in the
power rating. Bama is four. A and M is up
five spots two three, and then it's Indiana to Ohio

(01:16:33):
State one. The gap between Ohio State and Indiana is
two and a half points right now. The gap between
Ohio State and the next closest team, which is A
and M, is five points right now. So we got
a gap. We got a gap between Ohio State and
not a huge one between them in Indiana. But the

(01:16:54):
important thing to note is the Model is sitting there
solidly telling you two best teams in the country in
the Big ten right now, and then third, four, fifth, sixth, tenth, eleventh, sixteenth, eighteenth, nineteenth.
It's just a bunch of SEC teams, but there's not
a great one. They're just a bunch of pretty good ones.

(01:17:15):
We'll see what that means come playoff time, because if
that holds steady, it doesn't matter how deep the SEC is.
Ohio State's just gonna win a national title and it
don't really matter how many SEC teams they gotta go
through to do it, or do we have a situation
where Ohio State doesn't get tested nearly as much as
those teams do, and then it pays dividends for those
teams in the playoff. Don't know. That's why we're gonna

(01:17:36):
play the playoff. But the gap between number three and nine,
which is the gap between Texas A and m and Miami,
is two and a half points. So there's a wider
gap between number one and number three than there is
between number three and number nine right now. Just some
interesting math there. I thought, let's move on. I've got
great news. We're gonna give away some money. I always

(01:17:58):
push fan duel for this. They're all like, hey, man,
we care about the customers. And I said, are you
serious about that? Yes, give them money. And eventually they
were like okay, and I said really and they said yes.
So about a month ago, we gave away one thousand
dollars in bonus bets and I said to FanDuel, that
went very well. They agreed, So I said, let's dial

(01:18:21):
it up a notch. Let's increase our unit size. If
you will, no immunity, know your betting terminology. So tonight
we're giving away twenty five hundred dollars in bonus bets
over the next twenty four hours. We're doing this all right.
So here's what you need to do. There's no strings
attached here. By the way, there's no catch you'll you'll
have to sign up for anything. Well, you need an account.

(01:18:42):
But other than that, here's what you need to do.
Producer Jesse. Just put a link in the live chat.
If you're not watching live, that's okay. I wish you would.
That's okay. But also there is a link in the
description to the show. Click on that thing, submit the
information and we're gonna take twenty five people over the
next twenty four hours. And we're just gonna drop one

(01:19:03):
hundred dollars into your account. And so some of you
is gonna be like Christmas come early. You're gonna wake
up and you're gonna look in there and you're gonna say,
I thought I had thirty eight dollars in here. Now
it says I got one hundred and thirty eight dollars.
That's caused the fan duel. Bonus Bet Faery dropped by
and gave you a present courtesy of Paate State twenty
five of you getting one hundred dollars. I don't know

(01:19:24):
who it's gonna be yet, but you can look at
the link in the live chat or in the description
and you can sign up. If you're not interested in
the money, don't worry about it. I just I've been
told that our audience generally fans of money. That's what
the research has said about you, guys. Do you don't
love it? We're not loving money around here. We're just
fans of it. We enjoy money, We like money. We

(01:19:46):
have some, we'd love to have some more. And that's
what this is all about. There's the QR code right.

Speaker 2 (01:19:51):
There must be twenty one plus and present in select
states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or
eighteen plus and present in DC first online real mind.
Any wager only five dollars first deposit required. Bonus issued
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Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook dot FanDuel dot com.
Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler, or visit FanDuel

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dot com slash RG call one eight eight eight seven
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for twenty four seven support in Massachusetts or call one
eight seven seven eight Hope n Y. Or text Hope

(01:20:35):
n Y.

Speaker 1 (01:20:35):
In New York, rominettle express time this week. I'm already
on two games. We talked about these the other night.
I'm on Illinois minus twelve and a half. I'm on
Purdue plus twenty one and a half. But we are
not exclusively a Big ten betting show, so I'm gonna
add two more games here. Coastal Carolina Wednesday night special.
I think Coastal Carolina plus five and a half against

(01:20:55):
Marshall again. I think that game's tomorrow night, and then
Mississippi State. They keep getting close. Eventually it's gonna happen.
We are going to bet against Arkansas this week. We
are taking Mississippi State on the road plus four and
a half. We will add several more to the Rominul
Express throughout the week. It was a challenging show for me.

(01:21:19):
I appreciate that thousands of you sat through it live.
Several thousand more if you were going to listen to
it or watch it later tonight or tomorrow morning. I
just ask humbly that you subscribe to the channel. I
would put the clown nose back on, but it rolled
somewhere on the ground. Please subscribe to the channel and
ask your mom and dad to do the same. Or
if you're forty seven years old and you don't live

(01:21:39):
with your mom and dad anymore, good for you. Got
your act together, you're living your life. You're on your
own still though, subscribe to the channel. Just be mature.
Thank you guys so much for producer Jesse, for director Bradley.
I'm Josh Pate. We'll be back seven Eastern, sixth Central
Thursday Night. Until then, take care and god bless.

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for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or eighteen
plus and present in DC. First online real money wager
only five dollars first deposit required. Bonus issued as non
withthdrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions
apply see terms at sportsbook dot FanDuel dot com. Gambling
problem call one eight hundred gambler, or visit FanDuel dot

(01:22:36):
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nine seventy seven seventy seven, or visit CCPG dot org
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and Y in New York

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