Week 4 Predictions + Dabo Unleashes & New JP Poll

College Football week 4 predictions are here. Michigan vs Nebraska and Florida vs Miami are big matchups with CFP and job implications. Can Matt Rhule and the Huskers announce their arrival in the Big Ten title picture? What will Billy Napier and the Gators have against Mario Cristobal and the Canes? We also break down Auburn vs Oklahoma. Next, Josh updates his national QB rankings. DJ Lagway has disappointed but Carson Beck and Haynes King have been incredible. Where should Ty Simpson and Gunner Stockton be? What about Arch Manning? The week 4 edition of the JP Poll is here as we take a look at movement within the power ratings. Where should Vandy and Miami be? What do we do with Clemson and Texas? Is LSU rising? Where are Alabama and USC? All that plus Dabo Swinney goes off on the state of the Clemson program and we add best bets on the Ramen Noodle Express.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:15):
I did want to let people know that many have
asked what happened to Childlife Supremacy? Why don't you give
those out anymore? They were on back order, but I
got four brand new boxes them, So if anyone out
there is looking to earn one, you know how to
earn one. For example, I got an email earlier today
from a kid who was in his dorm which is
up like four or five floors off the ground, and

(00:38):
he's put subscribe to the channel in his window where
the entire world can see. Chalice of Supremacy headed to
that kid. So with that, we're jam packed. We're high
top of tranquil downtown Nashville, Tennessee. Storms moved through a
little while ago, beautiful sunset. It's almost like everyone knows
calm before the storm, the storm being weak four. And

(00:59):
we've got a pretty tonight. So we've got game predictions.
It's always a big prediction Tuesday. But also we've got
a freshly updated JP pole to drop on you tonight,
which comes forty eight hours before the Commissioner's pole drops
on Thursday. Dabo Sweeney just had himself a Hall of
Fame press conference today. I'm talking about an all timer.

(01:19):
You could be, you could be a fine connoisseur of
press conferences, press confry, and you've rarely seen one. You've
rarely seen a guy get this wound up. He gave
what was it, Jesse, like a thirteen and a half
minute answer on perhaps the most innocuous question of the
entire press conference. We got that. We got a rare

(01:40):
four added best bets on the Raman Noodle Express tonight.
There's a lot of value out there. At least one
of the games we break down is gonna be a
best bet, perhaps a game I'm gonna be at this Saturday. Yeah,
we got a jam packed show. We have no time
to waste. They're watching us in oak Ridge, Tennessee, Gardener, Kansas, Richmond, Virginia, Meridian, Mississippi.
We do have a mild to moderate conundrum on our hands,

(02:02):
and that is well, number one, I feel like I
have to sneeze. That's not the conundrum, that's just life. No,
the conundrum is, as I was walking into the gym today,
popped in some trident, started chewing and instead of the gum,
I hit my tongue the backside of it, Jesse, not
even the front of it. So I don't. I feel bad.

(02:24):
I sound like I feel like I sound bad. I
feel like my tongue is it is between my teeth.
It's not a great feeling. So you know, I Lane
Kiffin would not update my injury status. I am updating
it for you. I'm very questionable for this show. But
here I am. It's a good song by Patty Lovelace
by the way, Here I am. Okay. You want bravery,

(02:48):
you want to start the show with bravery tonight, here's
your endpoint, Bradley. One of the braver things that anyone
will have ever done on this show or any show,
is revisit their quarterback rankings this early in the season.
But as you know or should know by now, it's
gone sideways quickly for me and pretty much everyone else
who put out quarterback rankings. I don't really think anyone

(03:09):
put out rankings out there in the SEC that had
Arch and Lagway and Sellers outside the top ten, yet
that very well could be the top ten right now
in the SEC. So what I wanted to do, because
people have been ragging me about this, and truthfully I
deserve it, is I wanted to remind you that going
into the season, I did release my preseason SEC quarterback rankings.

(03:31):
I was fairly confident, I would say, on a scale
of one to ten, solid six and three quarters confident
that this would at least somewhat resemble what the conference
was going to look like this year. Famously, at this
point it's only been three weeks. Famously, I had DJ
Lagway number one, Yes, Prince Lagway, I bought all the
stop and then I had Arch number two, And honestly,

(03:53):
we weren't even hyping them up like most people were.
I thought we were tame on Arch. But I did
think there was this baseline, it's Steve Sarkesian, it's Arch Manning,
It's it's Texas talent. Like, there's a pretty high floor here,
is there? Not? Yeah? Holes in the floor? Man. I
had Leonora Seller's number three, and people were hate you

(04:14):
remember you remember now if you watched the segment, you
remember people were banging on me a little bit for
not having Sellers higher, not having nus Meyer higher. We'll
get to him, he's got a little injury situation. I
also took a fair amount of criticism that everyone's already
deleted for having John Mattier as high as I did.
The audacity of having unproven John Mattire. Look at that

(04:36):
side arm release. Look at the quality of competition he's faced. Fifth, fifth,
wops do you think you are? They asked me. So
it was Austin Simmons, Jackson, Arnold Taylor Green, Marcel Reed,
Diego Pavia. I didn't have Gunner Stockton in there because
we hadn't seen him play. I hadn't put Ty Simpson
in there because we hadn't seen him play. Now, we
hadn't seen Arch play really either. I just thought Arch

(04:58):
would be better than them, obviously, So it's time to revisit.
And I'm not going to do the whole random order thing.
I'm just going to tell you my new number one
quarterback in the SEC updated rankings as of tonight. Yeah,
it's John Mattier. I regret not putting him higher in
my preseason I did pick him to win the Heisman,
after all, but even I wanted him to earn it

(05:19):
a little bit what he has earned it. We were
there on a location in a living color for the
Michigan game, and we won't be there for the Auburn game.
But they got Auburn this weekend. Everything they could have
hoped that he was going to be at least in
the first portion of the season. Remember this was supposed
to be when they were sort of feeling each other out.
He was new to the program, but he brought his

(05:40):
coordinator with him and it's been great. It's been wonderful,
and to their credit, they put good receiving talent around him.
So I got him number one. I don't even think
that's controversial at this point. But who would you put
number two in the league right now? Because I'm going
to Fatville, Arkansas. The season hasn't gotten off to such
a hot start. But Taylor Green, had you pop on

(06:01):
the old mistape forget tape, just go watch the broadcast.
I don't care, go watch it from the blump. He
is incredible. And right now I'm looking at them and
they're going to Memphis, and I'm terrified for that game
this weekend. By the way, they're in a letdown spot,
they're in a look ahead spot. It's Memphis super Bowl.
Silver fills up there talking about Georgia's arrest record. I

(06:21):
have no idea what's happening with that game, but this
dude's been bawling out. So Taylor Green number two on
the SEC quarterback rankings right now, and then I got
to put Joey Agilar number three. This is the most
I think the most surprising result may be in the
league so far, in a sense that I just didn't
think it was possible for him to look good like

(06:43):
this this quick I didn't think the offense could click
this good this quickly. And I am someone who has
all the confidence in the world in Josh Iipel. But
they just went toe to toe with Georgia and lost
to Georgia. That they lost hanging thirty eight in regulation,
So offense didn't lose it by Aglar didn't lose it.
Sixty six percent completion percentage guy so far, ten touchdowns,

(07:05):
two picks. He's been incredible, and I mean, I can't
guarantee anything, but I certainly don't think he's gonna regress
as the season goes on. You know who I got
number four is Beau Pribulah. You know, there are healthy
conversations going on right now. Scratch that they're very unhealthy
from a mental standpoint. It's very unhealthy to be having

(07:25):
this discussion. But I've got it on good authority that
some of our friends up in Pennsylvania have been observing
what Beau Pribula has been doing at Missouri and have
been observing what Drew Aller is still struggling to do
at penn State and saying, Wow, did we keep the

(07:46):
wrong guy? Now that's unfair. It's very unfair because Penn
State hasn't had to open up the playbook blah blah blah,
et cetera, et cetera. You know how that goes that
it's even a conversation speaks to how good the fit
is between Limn, Eli Drinkwitz and that entire offensive system there.
Remember he gave up play calling before last year, I

(08:06):
think it was, and they have soared since them. Was
Eli Drinkwitz holding Missouri football back? Probably not. I just
want the clip in there because it will make its
way to him. He's been a perfect fit there. He's
been really incredible. That Kansas game is probably the highest
profile game he's played so far. They've got South Carolina
this weekend, you know, so it really ramps up for him.
He's been good. Gunner stocked him. I think number five

(08:29):
is a good spot for him. First two games Georgia
played very obviously weren't going to be like the Tennessee game,
and they weren't and he wasn't. And in retrospect, it's
probably a good thing that the offense looked like it
did against Austin P And then the biggest shock in
the world. Georgia played at a little bit different level
against Tennessee than they did Austin P. So did Gunner Stockton,

(08:51):
and any lingering question I had about him was answered.
Now in retrospect, it's always fun to saying, oh, you
doubt it him, Yeah, I sure did. I didn't doubt that,
we get Yeah I did. I flat out doubted him. Okay,
so gunners Stockton proved me wrong. So far, Gunner Stockton
proved me wrong. I didn't think he'd play at that
level against Tennessee. I didn't think he'd play at that

(09:13):
level all year, and he did. So he proved me wrong.
And there he is number five and climbing green arrow
next to his name, Marcel Reid number six. Do we
think that's fair? Seventeen to thirty seven the other day
for like a billion yards against Notre Dame. I think
that that vertical passing game check. We were right. The

(09:33):
reports we heard out of College Station, those were right
in the preseason, and that dude's playing at a level
where if I'm getting that, if I'm getting the downfield
passing threat, and I think I know they can run
the ball to win a game eventually. I mean, if
we're once again making defense the big question for Texas
A and M and I know I got high level
quarterback play. I mean, still still some mistakes here and there,

(09:57):
some overthrows, accuracy issue. I'll take it. Let me just
put it that way. If that's what I'm gonna get
from Marcel Reed, I'll take it. I got him number six.
I got Diego Pavia number seven. There were rumors today
he may be seeking a seventh year of eligibility. He
put the cap emoji out there. Bradley will tell you

(10:18):
as well as I will. That means it's not happening.
Diego Pavia though, just leading the football team, not carrying
a football team. It's important to note Nashville's football team
is more than one person, but one person is the
face of that team, and that is Diego Pavia. I
would put Ty Simpson number eight. So the Florida State
game very shaky for that entire organization. Him as a

(10:40):
quarterback very shaky. He's looked really good since then. One
of those games was Uel Monroe. One of those games
was Wisconsin, and you're probably thinking the same thing I am.
That is, well, what happens when they go on the
road again against quality competition. You're in luck. They go
to Georgia next week, so we'll find out. I mean,

(11:00):
ty Simpson when given time very good. Will he be
given time when he's not, I'll tell you this though,
when he's not given time, I mean he's thrown some
balls under pressure the past couple of games, especially that
Wisconsin game that looked really good. So again I sound
a little pessimistic with Alabama only because I told you
I was gonna be and I guess ty Simpson just

(11:22):
suffers from that as it relates to this show. This
is my preseason national championship pick. They're just gonna get
held to a higher standard here, and when you let
me down like they did in Week one, you've got
to earn the trust back. Ty Simpson back on the
road next week, that team will probably go as he
goes next week, earn the trust back. All due respect

(11:44):
to Luke Fickle, that does not happen against Wisconsin Garrett
Nussmeyer number nine. Now you'll notice Brian Kelly, I think
today confirmed he's been dealing with Jesse. How did they
phrase it? Was it like a Torso injury? They said, so,
I mean full disclosure. This was not a huge mystery,

(12:05):
or I guess it wasn't breaking news. This was kind
of whispered about behind the scenes. I think some people
said elbow. I didn't hear elbow. I heard exactly what
Brian Kelly said today. That's why I treated the Clemson
outcome like I did, because I knew goodwill. They went
on the row with a hurt quarterback and still beat Clemson,
and now they've confirmed it. I'm not a newsbreaker per se.

(12:29):
It's not really the business I'm in. But yeah, he's
been playing hurt, he's been playing limited. Let me just
put it that way. He've been playing limited. I've got
him at nine because given his limitation, I think he's
done what he needs to do. I think he's done
everything he can do. If you've watched him play, you
know there's an element to their offense clearly because of

(12:49):
that physical limitation that's missing. I don't know what a
bye week would mean for him. They've got. I mean,
they got tons of big games coming up. I don't
need to read the schedule, but I got nine Lenora's Sellers.
I put ten. Let me just tell you about this
number ten spot, and this is crazy, Bradley, if you'll
do me a favor, all right, so we've established Lenora

(13:12):
Sellers as number ten. If you'll do me a favor,
if you'll throw the first graphic up again, my preseason
top ten. Okay, I want you to think about how
crazy this is. I pay a lot of attention to
college football, all right. I pay a lot of attention
to the SEC. It's not like I threw darts at
a board, but I think I would have been luckier
throwing darts at a board. Trying to predict this because

(13:32):
we are entering week four, we're a quarter of the
way through the season, and we had the number ten
spot open here and Lagway was sitting there, and Arch
was sitting there, and Leonora's Sellers was sitting there, my
preseason one, two and three. And we sat there for
like five minutes and discussed whether any of them deserve

(13:55):
to be number ten. In the end, we put Sellers there.
Lagway's not even top ten, Arch is not top ten.
I don't know what in the world's happening with Arch
manning Copy and at least Arch is thrown to his
guys or nobody. DJ's just flat out throwing to the
other team. So I don't know who Hoops amongst us
could have ever predicted this. Not me. I would I

(14:18):
would love to see anybody's preseason top SEC quarterback rankings
that didn't have DJ Lagway top ten and didn't have
Arch top ten. Now, if you were just strictly going
on production, I guess, I guess Arch wouldn't have been
top ten. But if you were going on expectations, even
if you were down on those guys, you would have
had them top ten and instead here we are. So look,

(14:40):
I think that's brave. I think I think it's very
admirable of me. And the reason I have to compliment
myself is because I know the comment section is not
going to as well as my close personal social circle
up to an including family. No one's gonna congratulate me
on this. No one's gonna add Avoyd me. Sometimes, as
Mema said, you gotta grab you your elbow, push it

(15:02):
and patch your own self on the back. Self love
is important. People immunity, Quick Trip also important. They're fueling
the faultn't lie to them. We have been on the
road all season. We were on the road all spring
too with the Pate State Speakers Series, and we're gonna
be on the road again this Saturday. You know where
we're going for the first time ever, well for me

(15:24):
at least, Lincoln, Nebraska, from Michigan, Nebraska. The bus and
bowl gonna go hang out with those guys tomorrow. By
the way, it'll be tents over at the bus which
is a few blocks away from where I sit right now.
Everybody that does a show out of Nashville is all
packed in this little two mile radius circle. So weird.

(15:45):
It was not planned that way, but it feels like it. Anyway.
We'll be up there Saturday. We'll be on the sideline.
I've never been there before. I am steadily taking food
recommendations and I am going to get their courtesy of
Quick Trip, and we appreciate them. You know, they hit
me up the other day. Quick Trip. Joe hit me
up the other day QTJ. He goes buying my phone

(16:07):
and he said he said this to me. He said,
you're not giving away enough free gas. I mean, I'm
not making that up. He's flat out saying you need
to give away more free gas. Those are the kinds
of partners that we like on the show, not the
ones who tell you stop giving away free stuff, the
ones who tell you, excuse me, you're not giving away
enough free stuff. So message received QTJ Free gas being

(16:33):
tossed around left and right. You want free gas, let
me know I'm gonna get you free gas. We got
big games this weekend, big games. Oh my tongue hurts
so bad. I'm gonna take a sip of water, which
will do nothing. I I'm doubtful. Forget questionable. I'm doubtful.

(16:58):
I'm just push through as long as we can though.
Auburn at Oklahoma Saturday, three thirty Eastern, two thirty Central,
kickoff on ABC. This game proudly presented by Academy Sports
and Outdoors On this show and plenty of those in
and around Norman, Oklahoma who don't ever think the room
on this guys, don't ever think the room. Sometimes the

(17:20):
headlines are really a key part of the game. And
what will the headline be on this game? The headline
will be uh oh, Jackson Arnold returning to Oklahoma. That's
a big deal. That's a big deal. It's not just
low hanging fruit. That's not just casual conversation. This is
a really big deal. Jackson Arnold a year ago, a
little over a year ago, I guess now was the

(17:43):
hope for Oklahoma football. And a year later he's not
public enemy number one. I don't think people hate him
or anything like that. It's just that it didn't work
out there. Now he's starting at another SEC school. They're
coming in there, he's starting for them. It's a conference game. Meanwhile,
you Oklahoma have gone to Washington State and imported a
coordinator and a quarterback. And we all knew in the

(18:07):
preseason when we looked at this matchup, at least on
this show, we circled it and we said, that's a
huge wildcard game. Even though it's Week four, you could
have two very different roads for each of them because
we knew what did we know? We knew they both
will have already faced one high level opponent, and we
knew Auburn had to open on the road at Baylor.

(18:29):
We knew that Oklahoma had Michigan coming in. They could
both be undefeated. They could both be one lost teams
or disaster could strike, and it could be worse than that.
The latter two scenarios would have one or both coaches
on the hot seat already. Well, that has not come
to pass. Instead, they're undefeated, Oklahoma, favored by six and

(18:49):
a half, and here we go. I have to be
honest with you. I love to build suspense in these
game previews, but I don't love this for Jackson Arnold.
Their pass game is very limited. Watched a lot of
Auburn football this year, and almost everything in the passing
game is within ten yards of the line of scrimmage.

(19:12):
And you look at those little green dots on that
pass spray chart and they're all underneath, and they're all
out to the left and out to the right, and
there is nothing over the middle deep third of the field. Nothing.
And it's not cause guys aren't open. It's because the
ball's not getting to them. So I am thinking to myself,

(19:33):
all right, well, it's not like I expected Jackson Arnold
to lead the country in passing. Boy, I love a
little bit more than he's given me here. And now
I'm watching him go in Norman, Oklahoma and I know
good and well who the DC is there, and I
know how good he is at taking something away. So
I highly doubt that Auburn's just gonna run wild and
Jackson Arnold's just gonna run wild. He'll get his yardage

(19:56):
on the ground, but I doubt that's gonna dominate the game.
They're gonna make Jackson Arnold throw the ball to win.
It's what they did against Underwood a couple of weeks ago,
when Michigan came in there and he couldn't do it.
And frankly, Oklahoma mistakes are all that kept Michigan within
a puncher's reach of competing in the game. So I

(20:16):
speak about the Michigan game because you would think, as
I say this out loud, oh well, it sounds like
you believe this game. Profiles kind of liked that Oklahoma
Michigan game. Yet doesn't It doesn't. Here's where you developed
some hope for Auburn. Michigan rolled in there asking me
and you to play receiver if we wanted to. Auburn
rolls in there, Cam Coleman, Eric Singleton, I'd say Horatio Fields,

(20:41):
I say Malcolm Simmons. They got a number of guys
that would be the best receiving option on Michigan's team,
which leads me to believe, No, they're not going to
dominate Oklahoma on the ground. Yes, Jackson Arnold would have
to throw the ball to win the game. The difference
is he's got receivers that can go fight. I mean,

(21:02):
receivers that two or three times in this game when
all else fails you can just throw it up to
And there's not a whole heck of a lot of
design behind that. That's just I've got an athlete out here,
and I'm gonna toss it up and just bet he's
better than whichever DB's covering him. I mean, that's about
as basic as it gets. That's just raw competition, and

(21:23):
I'm better than you. Watch when this ball goes up
in the air, I'll prove it. That's kind of how
I see Auburn's passing game, having to not dominate here,
but having to change the game. If they change the
game here, Auburn is one hundred and first an explosive
pass rate right now, that flat out has to change.
There is very very little path to Auburn winning this

(21:44):
game Saturday. If the explosive pass is not there. I
don't care if it's down the seam, I don't care
if it's I don't care where it is. But they
got to push the ball down the field. I think
for Oklahoma, there's no way I'd say this for both teams.
You know what. Let me talk about Auburn defensively for
a second, because I haven't been all that impressed with them.

(22:08):
Oklahoma adjusted their roster for this moment. They went and
added some at receiver, They got other guys that were
already there healthy. They of course went and got the quarterback.
And here they are, and they're a really good team.
And I think if you're Auburn, you look at that.
And I mean, Auburn defensively has been nothing to write
home about. It's my primary concern for them outside of

(22:30):
the obvious with quarterback themselves. There's a big difference in
John Mattier getting his passing yards on you versus him
completely owning you with explosive scores, because the former can
happen as long as the latter doesn't happen. And by that,
I mean, if you tell me John Matier is gonna

(22:51):
have completed balls of forty forty one and forty four
yards Saturday. That's a huge deal and it's not great.
Did they score or do you push them out of
bounds at the seven yard line and come pack the
field and it's a goal to go situation, and who knows,
maybe they still score, but there's a whole lot better
shot you got there, and it rips a lot of

(23:13):
that playbook out and maybe a bat balls at the
line of scrimmage at that point. Maybe maybe Oklahoma can't
pound it in against you. Maybe they got to settle
for three. Like that's the kind of stuff also that
I think could tilt this game. But if Oklahoma gets
up early and they force Auburn to throw to stay
in it, I hate that recipe. Hate it. I also

(23:35):
wonder which non QB run game shows up. It's kind
of been a theme for both of these teams. Oklahoma
wants it all right. I don't think they have to
have it. Their tailbacks are averaging about four yards per carry.
Auburn needs it. They just flat out and need it.
They gotta be able to run the ball and limit
possessions on the other side, and their tailbacks are averaging

(23:55):
six yards per carry. Of course, the competition level has
been a little mixed there. And the other thing that
I think could strongly factor in that won't show up
in the box score is Auburn's one hundred and first
in penalty rate so far this year, and they're going
into Norman. It's the toughest place they will have played
so far this year. Oklahoma's top twenty five. By the way,

(24:17):
let's take a look at what the model thinks. FanDuel
right now has Oklahoma favored by six and a half.
We love Oklahoma in this game. The model has OEU
all the way out to minus nine. We made this
one of our best bets on Sunday night. If you
were watching, you know we got down on Oklahoma minus
five and a half. That number is moved. It wouldn't

(24:38):
surprise me if it crossed seven. So gimme Oklahoma to win,
and gimme Oklahoma to cover. I just don't love the
spot for Auburn at all. They are, however, watching us,
probably a number of Auburn fans in we Dowie, Alabama's
where it win. He's from, by the way, Jesse. They're
watching us in Dutch Harbor, Alaska. The Alaskan viewers all

(25:00):
fascinate me. I appreciate them. I appreciate you guys more
than you can ever know, especially our good friends in
Dutch Harbor. Davenport, Florida is tuned in and field Dale,
Virginia tuned in. Very very observant dialed in viewers and
listeners may notice the whale breach is back tonight. I

(25:21):
saw the whale breach mentioned in the live chat. The
whale breach is a very, very lesser known part of
the show. It happens in the spring, in the fall,
during allergy season where I get a little stopped up.
This has nothing to do with the tongue bite. I
get a little stopped up and to clear the nasal
passages as I'm talking, I'll do this and you can

(25:44):
hear it, and we have been told on podcasts it
sounds like a whale breach, you know, just clearing the
blowhole as it comes up for air. I don't appreciate
the comparison, but I can't do anything about it. God
made me this way, just like God made the whales
that way. And so however, hoever we have to clear
the blowholes is however we have to clear the blowholes.
The important part is we got to get to the

(26:06):
Florida Miami preview somehow so three two one, Here we go,
Florida at Miami, Saturday night, seven thirty Eastern kickoff on ABC.
Let me set the table for you. It's bad for
Florida right now and it's great for Miami now. Two

(26:26):
worlds looking totally different. What does conventional college football history
tell us happens here? Conventional college football history tells us
you don't just keep climbing, and you don't just keep falling.
If you're climbing, someone eventually yankes you back down to earth.
And if you got a really, really good talented team,

(26:47):
you don't just fall forever. You get backed into the
corner wounded animal mode, wounded gator mode, if you will,
and eventually it just it just clicks for you. You're
not always going to be minus four minus five in
the turnover battle. I don't think that's what generic history
tells us. Heavy do down spot for Miami dominant last week,

(27:08):
Heavy do up spot for Florida terrible last week? Well, breach,
How do you call this game? If you're Billy Napier,
I'm dead serious. I'm not asking us to be play callers.
Most of us aren't qualified to be, and also those
of us who think we are aren't qualified to be.
Florida is fifty seven to forty two. Fifty seven and

(27:29):
a half to forty two and a half passed to
run ratio right now. Mind boggling, because I thought they
had one of the best offensive lines in one of
the best tailback rooms in the country. And by the way,
I may not have been wrong. Jayden Bob's six point
five seven yards per carry right now, and he's averaging
twelve attempts per game. Is it punishment? It is his

(27:54):
cardio not where it needs to be. He's averaging over
He's averaging over six and a half yards per carry.
And this is a Florida team that should want to
impose their will. It's not like they've been playing from
three scores down the whole year either. These have been
very very close games they've played so far. So you

(28:15):
either commit to running the ball this week at the
worst time imaginable because you're facing maybe the best run
defense you'll see all year, or you tell DJ to
just keep slinging it and hope for the best. Ironically,
that may be your best strategy this week. I'm just
kind of playing around, but that actually may be how
the game plays out. But think about being Billy Napier.

(28:36):
One thing he's made clear he is calling the plays.
That's not changing. That won't change until you have another
head coach in there, it seems. So you got to
tell back that the numbers suggest you can trust, the
play calling suggests maybe they don't. And then you got
a quarterback who, according to recent results, I wouldn't have
much trust in at all to make sound decisions. And

(29:00):
yet I don't think they're going to run the ball
all that effectively on Miami. It could be that targeting
this revamped secondary is your best shot here. Do you
do it?

Speaker 2 (29:10):
Though?

Speaker 1 (29:11):
Do you really watch your guy? I mean, DJ looked
lost last week tossing five picks. Do you really trot
him back out there and throw the ball thirty five
times again this week? I don't know. Florida has one
of the best defenses in the country though, that's what
I do know. Two touchdowns allowed, Caleb Banks is going
to be out. This is going to be the best

(29:31):
offense they've seen by a pretty wide margin. And you
know there's again going back to conventional college football wisdom,
it would say all right, Miami's looked good so far. Boy,
offensive numbers through the roof, but who have they faced?
You know, And conventional college football wisdom would say, boy,
when the competition level ramps up, this significantly could be

(29:55):
that crowbar theory is in play, one of the mini
theories we believe in on the campus of Payte State.
But I don't think it is. I certainly don't think
Florida's gonna give up half a hundred like USF did
last week. But I don't think so. And you know why,
because the competition level here is not foreign to Carson Beck.
He's played in the SEC multiple years, so he's seen Florida,

(30:20):
but also he's seen Alabama, He's seen LSU. Did George
play LSU? Point stands, He's seen this level of play.
This is not new to him. And he's got really
good pass catchers, and he's got an emerging superstar in Tony,
and he's got running backs they actually will hand the
ball off to. And he's got an offensive line that
is living up to the hype. So I'm not all

(30:41):
that worried about it. And I supremely respect Florida's defense.
And you're gonna have to scratch and claw to hang
twenty four or twenty seven here, but that's probably gonna
be enough. If recent history offensively from Florida is any indication,
I think you got to keep a close eye on
the pace of this game in the first half. I

(31:02):
think Florida may want to crawl in this game. I
think Miami may want a sprint in this game. But
if Lagway's back in that same spot they were last
week where shaky early games still within reach, how are
they gonna call that game? And the other thing about
it is if this game does slow to a crawl,

(31:23):
is Miami not kind of equipped for that as well?
I think this is another spot kind of like that.
Who was it? It was Vandy in South Carolina last
week where they're playing in week three, but they already
have a common opponent. Well, these teams right here, Florida Miami,
they're playing in week four, they already got a common
opponent USF and one of them struggling, got beat at home,

(31:46):
and the other one just splattered them at home. And
I think Miami can win either style of game, is
what I'm trying to tell you. Let's take a look
at what the model thinks the FanDuel number currently is
Miami minus seven and a half pretty much agrees we've
got Miami minus eight. I've got to tell you, I
know what generic history says about this game. I'm gonna

(32:08):
go the other way. I think Miami's better, and I
think they're looking to make a statement the same as
they did when they opened in the Swamp last year,
and I think they will. And it doesn't even necessarily
mean Florida plays terribly. I just think Miami's that much
better right now. So I'll take them to win competitive game,
but in the end, I'll take them to cover as well.

(32:29):
Academy Sports and Outdoors. If you need to get geared up,
if you got tailgating plans this weekend or at any
point in the future, or if you just need a
jacket for the fall, or if it doesn't feel like
fall yet where you live and you need to restock
up on some tees, if you have camping plans in
your near future, if you want to get an early

(32:50):
start on Christmas shopping. For all we care, we being
me and Academy, go for it. Just go to Academy
Sports and Outdoors. You may think, oh, Sporting goods. It's
a whole lot more than that. I would encourage you.
Don't take my word for that, although you can trust
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word for it. Go in there and look around and
find out how many times you say, well, I didn't
know they had that here? They do. They've got it there.

(33:13):
If you can't get there in person, that's a shame,
but Academy dot com will suffice. Let's move on. Got
a big crowd watching live by the way. Oh oh,
I forgot to tell you, all right. I don't want
to bore you with all the details our numbers we get,

(33:35):
you know, we get analytics report every week. Most of
the time. I just toss it to the side. Whatever,
stick to the process, you know, horse blinders on and stuff.
Oh I looked at our numbers today. Insane. So just
a quick bow of the head and thank you to everyone.
We ask you to subscribe, and boy you have been.
And for the remaining three or four of you out
there who haven't, I would humbly ask that you end

(33:57):
your hold out. We're trying to get the five hundred
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It'll make us feel better, it'll make you feel better.
All right, Here we go back to the predictions. Michigan

(34:17):
at Nebraska Saturday, three point thirty game on CBS, and
we're gonna be there. Do you know what this means?
You know what this really means? You know what the
huge takeaway is? We get to share a sideline with
Jenny Dell again. And I haven't been able to say
that all year. It's fueled by quick trip. Our trip
there is the whole game is. It's gonna be a

(34:38):
spectacular Saturday in Lincoln. And I say that as someone
who's never been there before, my first trip there. It's
the bus and bowl. I'll have Will Compton there, I'll
have Taylor lawand there. We're gonna be on the sideline.
It's gonna be great. What a prove it spot for
Matt Rule. There are some things we believe in on
this show, God Country, the rule rule, your three under

(35:01):
Matt Rule. You're just gonna be a good team. It
is your three under Matt rule in Lincoln. So far,
so good. Beat Cincinnati in Week one. Akron splattered, HCU splattered,
Michigan splattered. I don't, I don't. I don't think I
expect that. But if we believe in the rule rule,

(35:21):
isn't this the game where you really announce your arrival.
Isn't this the game where you kind of plant the
flag so to speak? It's turf. You don't want to
do that at home, But figuratively, this is the game
that if you win it, and especially if you were
to win it emphatically, that people look and say, hey,
maybe that rule rule thing, Maybe maybe that's true. Maybe

(35:43):
he's not just a podcaster, maybe he is a really
good college football coach. Now to do that, we've got
to find out is Michigan going to go in there
and steamroll you? I mean, are they going to be
able to make it? Academic can't have that. But also
we got to find out if Nebraska's offense is real
or if it's just sort of fool's goal. Because I'm
looking at these numbers on this piece of paper and

(36:06):
these are these are silent paper popper stats. Silent Okay,
we're looking to do that. Dylan Ryola is number one
in the country in passing efficiency. Homestead funk it run
game looks good veteran offensive line, they're third in the
country and third down conversions. And as soon as I
say all that, I know I got a Nebraska hater,
because they do exist, yelling you who have they played? Well,

(36:32):
They're gonna play Michigan Saturday. If they do it against Michigan,
Is that enough for you? Probably not knowing the haters
like I do, but I do have to inform you
painfully though. It may be that the crow bar theory
is in play in this game. For those who are
new to the campus here at paid State, the crowbar
theory is a little something like this. If you have

(36:53):
a high level offense in college football, at least there
is a theory. Sometimes you just haven't faced a good
enough defense. And a good enough defense in college does
not just slow you down. If you're averaging forty points
per game. It's not like you face a high level
defense and oh, that's okay, we won't score forty, We'll

(37:14):
only score twenty nine. In college sometimes the disparity and
competition level is such that you have built your numbers
into fools. Gold and when you face a quality opponent,
they meet what we call the freeze point, and they
just tossed the crowbar and the bicycle spokes. And what
you find is that doesn't slow the bike down. It

(37:36):
immediately stops the bike. And you go from scoring forty
per week to you got nine points midway through the
fourth quarter having no clue what's happening to you. We
do at least have to acknowledge that's in play. Because
of the relatively unproven nature of Nebraska on the national stage,
and because of the profile of Michigan's defense, we do

(37:58):
have to acknowledge that very obviously Michigan's about to come
after Dylan Ryola Cincinnati. Did I mean that game could
have gone the other way? In Week one they had
nine quarterback pressures. Now they only got him on the
ground once, but he threw two other near picks that
no one talks about because they weren't picked off. But
what if they are picked off? This is scary stuff.

(38:20):
What if they are picked off? Pat Mahomes is not
even going to be there this week, so unseen moral
support's not there. What if they get picked off? Remember
two things to remember. Firstly, they only had three yards
per carry against Cincinnati. And remember this at Cincinnati quarterback

(38:40):
in Week one, Brendan Sowsby had thirteen carries of his
own for ninety six yards on the ground and two touchdowns.
I mentioned that because last week Bryce Underwood carried it
for one hundred yards himself. And I'm steadily sitting there
getting text from Michigan fans. This is what our offense
needs to look like. This is what the Michigan offense
should look like. So that's another way this game becomes academic.

(39:06):
You can't make it be academic. You got to take
their best punch and not only absorb it, you got
to be able to deliver one. Also, look, here's what
he needs to do. Ryolan needs to hit the throws
that are there. Because I talked all spring and summer
about how Nebraska had revented their wide receiver room enough
and it was an underrated receiver room. And I don't

(39:27):
think I was wrong about that. I think I'm right,
and I do think they have the quarterback that can
get the job done. But I also thought DJ Lagway
was going to be the best signal caller in the SEC,
and I was wrong about that. So I need to
be right about Dylan Ryola here. What he needs to
do is hit the throws that are there. That's all
you gotta do. That's what John Mattiir did against him,

(39:50):
and the plays were there to be had, you know, White,
cause he's got a good enough arm and good enough
receiver corps. I think you do as well. Special teams
is huge here. They've imported upon from halfway around the world.
At Nebraska. Special teams kept Michigan in that Oklahoma game.
Don't let that happen to you here, home field at
your back. I'm there to witness it all. And a

(40:13):
young quarterback still in Bryce Underwood on the road. But
here's what we keep waiting for. We keep waiting for
that Spike game, you know, we keep waiting for that
Bryce Underwood announcing his arrival game. That could also happen
this week. Let's take a look at what the model thinks,
and let's take a look at what FanDuel thinks. FanDuel
as Michigan as a two and a half point favorite.

(40:34):
Right now, the model would like me to deliver the
following message to you. The wrong team is favored in
this game. And the model says it, and you know what,
I agree with it. Nebraska's going to win this game
out right. The rule rule is real, and Nebraska is
going to get that signature win, and they're going to

(40:55):
announce their arrival in the Big Ten. Dare I say
they're going to announce their arrival in the college football
playoff picture. I should have whispered that. I should not
have said it out loud, but I've already said it
out loud. We're live. We cannot take it back. Give
me Nebraska outright emphatically. We're doing a live show there Friday.
By the way, Oh boy, you know, speaking of live,

(41:21):
speaking of shooting from the help, speaking of oh, you
know the thing. We had a we had a pretty
legendary press conference go down today, Bradley, He'll gi me.
Let me give you a good endpoint. What happened to
Dabo today? A press conference happened nearly an hour long

(41:41):
press conference in Clemson today. And here's what happened, as
best I can tell, and I'm gonna play you some
sound so you can experience it for yourself. And it
is an experience, the best I can tell. Dabo walked
into a press conference today and he had an answer
and he was searching for a question. Nick Saban used
to do this a lot. He had a message he

(42:02):
wanted to deliver, and he was just hoping that a
reporter teed him up with a question that was even
in the neighborhood of the answer that he already knew
he wanted to give. Well, Dabo walked into press conference
today and he had an answer he wanted to give.
He was waiting for the question. The question didn't come,
and so you know what he did. He just kind
of crashed out anyway. And to be clear, I'm gonna

(42:24):
play you several bites from this press conference. I want
to make sure you understand we are not clipping this
out of context. We are not twisting his words against him.
I love Daboswenty, so I wouldn't do that to begin with.
But I do want to make sure you know when
I'm playing you this sound because when you listen to
what I'm gonna play you, if you're like me, the
first thing you would ask yourself is okay, but what

(42:47):
was said before that? I'm gonna let you know what
was said before that. One of the assembled members of
the media there asked the following question, what's one offensive
play you'd like to have back against Georgia Tech. I'm
going to read it again, what is one offensive play

(43:08):
you'd like to have back against Georgia Tech right now?
To Debo's credit, he did answer that question, but he
wasn't done when he finished the answer, he wasn't done.
So triggered by the question what's one offensive play you'd
like to have back, let me walk you through what

(43:29):
happened over the next thirteen minutes playsot one Bradley.

Speaker 3 (43:35):
We're a great program because we've always responded, and we
finished nine and for us, the worst season we've had
in fourteen years. That's the worst season we've had in
fourteen years?

Speaker 2 (43:47):
How many ads would sign up for that? How many
ad I know?

Speaker 3 (43:52):
So again, then we come back last year and we
win the league again, we go back to the playoff
and right now here we are this is yet to
be determined, saint written yet, But all I just say that, like,
what's so bad about our program?

Speaker 2 (44:07):
What's so bad about it?

Speaker 3 (44:09):
Like, what's so bad about the worst season that we've
had fourteen years? How many programs in college football would
sign up for one? And only once fourteen years of
none wins how many programs would sign up for that.

Speaker 1 (44:24):
Okay, classic gas lighting technique here, that's not gonna work
because we're not in middle school. So to be very clear,
many many athletic directors would sign up for the past
ten to fifteen years at Clemson. We're not measuring Clemson
against the many. You know that, we're measuring them against
the few, which is a credit, by the way, to

(44:45):
the standard you've established there. But what we have here
is essentially we have a gas lighting technique. It works
on a lot of people. By the way, the gas
lighting technique is like, if you're an honor roll student
and uhh, three bes popped up on the report card.
You go home and you hand a report card to dad.
Dad's gonna look at you and say, why did you

(45:08):
make three bees? That's not acceptable? And you look back
at Dad and say, I guess you're telling me I'm
a failure. I guess I'm just the worst kid.

Speaker 2 (45:18):
In the world.

Speaker 1 (45:18):
No, no, no, parent's not gonna fall for that. It's
a good try. It's good try. That's closely related to
the one time when I tried to convince my dad
to let me go spank myself. I'll go punish myself. Okay,
you don't have to do it. It's a great strategy.
It just doesn't work. Nor does this work. Nobody's telling

(45:42):
you you're bad. No one said that. In fact, the
dude asked what play you'd like to have back, and
then seven and a half minutes later, rambling semi coherence,
we go, what's so bad about our program? Absolutely nothing.
We're not looking to be just not bad at Clemson.
We're looking to be great. We just hadn't tasted great
in a while. That's the only thing that people are

(46:02):
really complaining about. He was not even close to done.
Side to roll it Bradley in the playoffs. So we
all talk about we've been seven times in ten years.

Speaker 3 (46:14):
Who can say that if we stink because we haven't
played for the national championship since January of twenty well,
I guess we stink, Or we haven't won it since
January of nineteen.

Speaker 2 (46:26):
We haven't won the national championship? Well, and I guess
we stink.

Speaker 3 (46:29):
But why are we held to a different standard from
all these other teams out there who ain't ever won nothing?

Speaker 1 (46:36):
Yes, so this is the one that got me. Why
are we held to a different standard? Than a bunch
of programs that have won nothing, because you're not those programs.
And I'd ask Dablos twenty do you hold Clemson too
a different standard then the other programs that have won nothing?
And the answer is yes, you do. So what do

(46:57):
you chastise me for if I'm holding to a different
standard just like you admit you hold Clemson to a
different standard. What's the problem here? Again, no one's telling
you you suck, No one who's serious at least, no
one's telling you you're bad. But I really, truthfully, I
don't care how Clemson compares to Akron. I don't care
how Clemson compares to Bowling Green. I don't care how

(47:19):
Clemson compares to Maryland because Clemson is better than them,
and they're better than them because you built it. So
you know that, and you know good and well. You
hold yourself to a standard above that of most other
coaches in college football. You hold your program to a
standard higher than most, if not all, other programs in
college football. And so when you're not there, and when

(47:40):
I'm used to you being one or one A for
a long time and you're in the top group, you're
in the top tier, and now you've relegated yourself to
maybe the bottom of tier one or the top of
tier two. I'm not telling you you're terrible, but I'm
gonna notice it, just like you've noticed it. So again,
no needs to play games here. No one needs to

(48:02):
say you think I suck, you think I'm terrible. No,
I don't know. If you sucked, then you were terrible.
That fire you. They're not gonna fire you, nor should they. No,
no serious person would even suggest it. But why are
we held to a different standard? Because you set the standard.
That's why you're held to the different standard. All right,
gear it up, Bradley. He still wasn't done. St three.

(48:23):
It rolls on.

Speaker 2 (48:25):
We're not perfect, and we may suck this year.

Speaker 3 (48:27):
We may, we may, we may lay a freaking egg
and go six and six, But I don't think so.
And I know that's gonna disappoint a lot of people,
but I don't think so. All Right, the reason we
are I think the best program in college football is
because we've always battled, We've always responded.

Speaker 2 (48:46):
We are not perfect.

Speaker 3 (48:48):
We've had some bad moments, we've had some bad little stretches,
we've had some lows.

Speaker 2 (48:52):
And this is one of those. But we.

Speaker 3 (48:57):
Have a consistency, and we have a wheel to in
and a fight and a program that is, to me,
the model in all of college football.

Speaker 1 (49:06):
That's why I will not seriously bang on debos Swinny
because I respect him as about as much as I
respect anyone in college football, and he is right when
he says that. Now, you could argue they're not the
best program or whatever, but they've been a model program.
They've been a model of consistency. It rubs a lot
of people the wrong way when you say they do
it different at Clemson. But they do do it different

(49:28):
at Clemson. I know because I've talked to plenty enough
kids who have gone on official visits there versus other places,
and they've come, even the ones that may not have
committed there, they do talk about it being different at Clemson.
So I really have no problem with that. And that's
why I've always been conflicted on this. I've talked about
this several times, even leading into this year. I talked
about how conflicted I was because I personally would love

(49:50):
to see them leverage the transfer portal more and I
stand by that, and I think it could fundamentally have
changed the fortunes of this team this year. But he
does feel that way, and he's long since earned the
right to run his program however he wants to. But
the point is, even if I disagree with him on
this or that, they're his values, they're his principles, and

(50:11):
he's always adhered to him and he's never apologized for it.
And there's some folks out there who are just spineless
and they're terrified at being criticized, and he's never been that,
and I've always appreciated that. That's why this kind of
stuff is a little conflicting for me. So I will say,
you know, in the interest of fairness and balance here,
he's absolutely right when he said what he said there,

(50:35):
But it wasn't over continue it, Bradley.

Speaker 3 (50:40):
They want me gone, they can if they tired of winning,
they can send me on the way, because that's all
we've done is win. So if they tired of winning,
we've had. We've won this league eight out of the
last ten years.

Speaker 2 (50:49):
Is that not good? I'm just asking is that good?
I don't know if that's good or not.

Speaker 3 (50:56):
To win your league eight out of ten years, to
go to the playoffs seven out of ten years, being
foreig national jamps went twice.

Speaker 2 (51:01):
Yeah, we little down right.

Speaker 3 (51:02):
Now take your shots, but I got a long memory case,
y'all don't know. We'll be all right. We'll bounce back.
And hey, listen, I mean Clemson's tired of winning. They
they send me on my way, but I'm gonna go
somewhere else, and coach, I ain't going to the beach. Hell,
I'm fifty five. I got a long way to go.
Y'all gonna have to deal with me for a while.

(51:23):
I had a long way to go. I'm just getting going.
I'm just now good enough to be a head coach.
I'm just now figuring it out. So we'll be around
a while. That's hanging in there.

Speaker 1 (51:38):
Yeah, no one's letting anyone go. Let's calm down on that,
all right. But I do want to say this. I
love Deboswenty. I have long admired the way he does
his business. I think that the game has passed him
by a little bit. But it doesn't have to have
passed him by. When I said it's passed him by,
I don't mean it's some mental thing like he struggles
to keep up or his techniques to quit it, or

(52:01):
like his offensive or defensive system. I don't mean it
that way. I mean the sport's changed, and he has
voluntarily chosen not to roll with that flow. Now, I
always thought to myself, and I don't know Dabbo personally
at all, but I've always wondered from Afar, I've wondered,
if he's looking at the sport and the way it's changing,
and he's had a great, lengthy career, maybe he's looking

(52:23):
at it he's in his mid fifties saying maybe it's
about time I go try something else. Well, clearly that's
not the case. So I fully believe he was honest
there and transparent when he said, well, if I leave here,
I'm not retiring. I'm just going somewhere else. I'll start
another program. But he was pretty emphatic that they'll get
it right there. He picked up on that several times,
as did I. He was pretty emphatic, we'll get it right,

(52:45):
we'll win again. I'm just not confident in that. Oh,
let me say this, if they don't change some fundamental
things about that program, they are not going to win
at a high level anymore. They can be a good program.
I think the floor is pretty high there, so they'll
never drop that of a solid top eight to top
fifteen caliber program, But those teams aren't winning national championships,

(53:07):
and fortunately Slash, unfortunately he set that standard there. That's
why his legacy will never be in doubt. For me.
I don't care if he never wins another game. But
if you're talking about being better than just good, if
you're talking about competing for a national championship, I need
to remind you, or I need to ask you. I
guess what makes you confident it's ever going to get

(53:29):
better than it is this year? Because I think this
may be Clemson's best team over the next several years.
This was the one they built to You want to
talk about the Clemson way of doing things, Okay, the
Clemson way is we don't really use the portal. We
believe in our people. We go recruit our guys like
cave Klebnik, former highly tided guy, bring that quarterback in,

(53:51):
you develop him, You go hire Garrett Riley, a highly
sought after coordinator, and you've got those two married together
from multiple ye and you let it cook in your
system and your culture and your way of doing things
to where he's a multi year coordinator, coaching a multi
year quarterback. You've got tons of returning experience, homegrown talent,

(54:16):
you recruited it, you developed it in house, you went
and got a high profile defensive coordinator to pair along
with all of that, and this is the result. Like
I ask, what is it about that formula that will
produce an infinitely better result down the road? This is
the one that should be delivering for you, and it's not.

(54:37):
And I'm telling you the roster talent's trending the wrong way. There,
not falling off a cliff, but they're not landing the
caliber of athlete that they used to. So that could change. Okay,
I have no idea if something's going to change there.
If it doesn't change, if the Clemson way just continues
to be the same Clemson way that it's been, you're

(54:59):
just looking at a pretty good program. That's what they'll be.
A pretty good program. I just don't think that's gonna
be good enough for them. And if Dabo's honest, it's
not good enough for him either. I think he's a
lot more disappointed about the way this thing got out
of the gate that he's letting on. I'm not saying
he doesn't seem phased by it. I think it's probably

(55:20):
taken him a little more by surprise. I guarantee you
he did not expect this kind of result unless there
was big injury, like quarterback injury or something like that.
But it's been disappointing, and I just I don't know
that there's a lot of room for that team to
improve because it's not a lot of unknown commodities. See,

(55:41):
that's the thing about some of these teams where you know,
they threw a bunch of guys together from the portal
and they got a bunch of true freshmen starting. You
could watch a team like that lose early in the
year and you think, well, you know what, give it time.
Let's check back a month from now. I bet there'll
be a way different team. Why would that Clemson team
change much? Why would that even happen? And then if

(56:03):
it does change a whole lot, why did it take
losing early in the year for a bunch of returning
starters to hit the gas?

Speaker 2 (56:12):
Like?

Speaker 1 (56:12):
What sentence does that make so entertaining press conference? I'll
give it to him. Next up, we got JP Pole.
We got one JP Pole. Week four edition is in
not to be confused with the Commissioner's pole. If you
came here looking for rankings, you want to see the
Commissioner's pole, not the AP pole. Never AP Pole's dead

(56:35):
to us. So the Commissioner's poll that's Thursday, that's rankings.
These are not rankings. You see see what the monitor says.
These are not rankings. The JP pole, it's power ratings.
The JP poll, which is generated by this model right here,
is just meant to show in a predictive manner, meaning
not caring about the past, looking to the future in

(56:57):
a predictive manner. It's supposed to show us neutral field favorability,
meaning it is going to stack all these teams based
on who it would favor against who on a neutral field.
That was pretty clear. I mean that was one time through.
We didn't pre record that or anything. So with that
in mind, let's start counting down. I did listen to

(57:18):
some of you who have been criticizing our methodology here,
and you said, it doesn't help that we don't have
a visual aid if we're listening just listening on podcasts,
could you please just do it in order instead of
doing it in a random order. I've listened, never say
I don't listen. I've listened. Let's start at twenty. We'll
work our way down. We got Illinois jumping six spots

(57:39):
to number twenty, and they've got a big couple of
weeks on deck. So Illinois checks in at number twenty.
FSU is at nineteen. All right, just hold on Fsu.
Let me get back to him. Texas text up five
spots to number eighteen. We got usc dropping. The model
was not impressed with the Purdue game. US He's at

(58:00):
seventeen and Clemson is at sixteen. Now let me tell you,
just cause the model spits this out doesn't mean I
agree with it. Because if you think that I'm taking
Clemson over Florida State on a neutral field right now, drugs,
I'm not. So. I do disagree with the model's placement.
I think Clemson should be a little bit lower than this.
But if you're wandering, let me save you the time.

(58:23):
Georgia Tech will not be in the top twenty for
the JP pole. And if you're confused by that, like
if you're wandering, for example, but if they're not in
the top twenty and Clemson sixteen, how does that make sense?
Georgia Tech just beat Clemson. Think about it this way.
Clemson entered the game as a three and a half
point favorite on the road, so we're adding three points

(58:46):
of home field value or thereabouts for Georgia Tech. So
add three to three and a half. That implies about
six and a half points in gap on a neutral
field between Clemson and Georgia Tech. Let me tell you
how this works. There is no world where there is
a six and a half point gap going into a
game and then the game is decided at the buzzer

(59:10):
on a field goal and that gap closes. That's not
the way this works. It's not the way it works.
And FanDuel would readily back me up on this. Clemson
would absolutely be favored against Georgia Tech on a neutral
field tomorrow. Now. I'd take Georgia Tech, to be very clear,
just like I took him last week. I'd have no
qualms about that. But Clemson would be favored. And that's

(59:32):
all this is about. Number fifteen is Missouri. Eli Drinkwitz
has checked in in the top twenty. They're up five
spots Utah fourteen. That is really high for a Big
twelve team because a lot of this, as you guys
love to point out, it absolutely is about roster talent.
It absolutely is about recruiting rankings. It's a lot of
it's baked em You may scoff at that. I'd ask

(59:56):
you to find me a better I'd just you to
find me a better prediction, give talent measurement than that.
I'd ask you to do that. I don't think you can.
So it's not everything, but they are baked in here
and for you taught to be number fourteen anyways, impressive
Ole Missus number thirteen, LSU twelve Texas. This is significant.

(01:00:18):
Anybody who's watched this show for a long time knows
that the model and Texas share the same bed every night,
and the model has dropped Texas out of the top ten.
I never thought i'd see the day Texas is number eleven. Understand,
not in a ranking but in a power rating format.

(01:00:40):
For a talent roster as loaded as Texas to be
outside of the top ten is shocking. No quarter well,
I was about to say no quarterback injury. Reportedly, no
quarterback injury, because really the only way you would see
that kind of drop is with quarterback injury. Normally we're
told that's not the case. So yeah, Texas eleven, all right,
top ten, Texas A and M checking in at number ten.

(01:01:03):
Tennessee is nine. They're up five spots after losing a game,
which is the difference in power ratings and rankings. A
lot of the doubt being erased about Tennessee, Oklahoma's eight.
Notre Dame is number seven, winless, Notre Dame number seven,
Miami's number six. Let's talk, let's talk. I'm giving you time.

(01:01:26):
I know a lot of you're screaming right now. All right,
So there's one group that I'm not going to waste
much time on that still after all these years, doesn't
understand how power ratings work. To them, of course, Notre
Dame at seven makes no sense. I suspect Jesse that
there are even some people who know how power ratings

(01:01:46):
work who are saying no, no, no, no, I get all that.
But even still, Notre Dame can't be top ten. Yes
they can, Yes they can. Notre Dame one hundred percent
would be favored today. If they played A and M
in Indianapolis or Kansas City or in neutral field, they
would be favored. They just would be what, well, Josh,

(01:02:09):
we're gonna go down this road I'm gonna speak for you. Well, Josh,
does that mean you don't care about the results on
the field. Yes, yes, Well why do you still have
A and M behind him? Tune in Thursday. I won't
That's when I'll rank them. This is a power rating.
What do we care about here? One thing? Who would
be favored? Notre dame, it'd be favored. That's it. That's
the end. It doesn't even matter who I'd bet once

(01:02:30):
the line was put out there. It only matters what
the line would be. And if you're not interested in that,
great news, you don't have to click on it. I
don't even know why I want you to click on anyway.
All right, let's go five to one here right quick.
Penn State is number five. Alabama's up back in the
top five. They're at number four, So it seems the
model was convinced from that win over Wisconsin. George's number three,

(01:02:54):
Oregon's number two. In Ohio State is number one. There
is a ten point gap right now between number one
and number fourteen. There is a ten point gap between
number fourteen and forty two. The field has never been
this compacted. And for the record, if you're wondering who

(01:03:14):
just missed out Auburn's at twenty one, Indiana twenty two,
Nebraska twenty three, Georgia Tech twenty four, Michigan twenty five.
That is the JP poll this week. I had a
conversation with Alex today. I was perusing the Peate State

(01:03:36):
store peytstatematerial dot Com. I happen to prefer triblend as
a material. I happen to prefer it, and so I
asked her can we get some more of these shirts
and tribland for me. I was just being selfish because
I was having her shiit me a big order, because
you can do that when you have your own store.
And she said, do you just want me to put
tribland options on a bunch of the shirts, which I

(01:03:58):
didn't even know we could do. So, for those of
you who have been banging the triblend drum, Triblend options
are coming on a lot of the shirts in the store.
We also added a new one today that is closely
correlated to power ratings. Over rankings peytstatemterial dot com shirts
flying off the shelves. However, unlike a couple of years
ago when we kept selling out, we will not sell

(01:04:19):
out of these we got them. We just got stacks
and stacks and stacks. So by till your heart is content,
I hold in my hand a very very big matchup.
Oh by the way, I've got four added best bets
before the end of the show, so stick around a
couple more minutes. Texas Tech is playing Utah at ten

(01:04:40):
am Mountain Time on Fox this Saturday. They will still
be serving breakfast at McDonald's in Salt Lake City when
this game kicks off, and yet it could be the
big twelve game of the year. I know, I know,
I know most of you don't know much about these rosters.
Not telling you you need to do flashcard quizzes till Saturday.

(01:05:03):
I'm asking you to watch the game, and I'm asking
you to at least know the quarterbacks. Baron Morton is
number one in the country, tied for first in passing touchdowns,
and with an eleven to one touchdown to I int ratio,
he's averaging over three hundred yards per game. That's Texas
Tech guy. Utah's guy is Devon Dan Pierre, transferred there
from New Mexico with his offensive coordinator. Because yes, Oklahoma

(01:05:27):
is not the only one who did that, and he
is a seventy three percent completion guy eight touchdowns total,
no interceptions, and he is also their leading rusher. Great
QB matchup, great matchup period. Probably the best two teams
in the Big Twelve that I've seen early on. However,
we don't know a whole lot because they hadn't played
a whole lot. I mean Utah Skull Drug UCLA. But

(01:05:50):
it turns out everyone was going to go on to
do that, and so doesn't mean they're not great. It
just means we can't we can't fully buy into them,
just off that result and cal Poly eh Wyoming late
score to cover last week. We noticed that because we
were on the other side. But specifically, how about Texas

(01:06:13):
Tech with all these new parts, all these transfer portal
editions going on the road for the first time. You
know what happens when you take the wagon out on
the trail for the first time. It gets rattled, it
gets shaken, and you find out is everything bolted the
way it needs to be, Is everything attached the way
it needs to be. No way to know until you
hit the trail. It's the way it worked for the settlers.

(01:06:34):
That's the way it's going to work for Joey McGuire
this Saturday. But also, and again I go back to
the UCLA game with Utah. There's a chance that you
come back to Earth and you find out retrospect that
Week one result not all it was cracked up to be,
or they're every bit as good as they looked and
it wasn't a mirage. The matchup of this game, if
you want to look past quarterback, is going to be awesome.

(01:06:58):
And it's the Texas Tech defense front against Utah's offensive line.
And we told you guys a couple of weeks ago
about that Texas Tech defensive front. If you've watched them
at all, they had a bunch of guys starting light
last year that are still there that are merely on
the two and three deep now because they just they

(01:07:18):
replaced them with better players. There's no other way to
say it. That depth and athleticism that they have up
front is different than anyone in the Big twelve, and
Utah's offensive line, for all we know, different than any
offensive line in the Big twelve. Texas Tech's already got
nine sacks so far this year. They're excellent versus the run,

(01:07:41):
and it's just good on good. It's gonna be really
fun to watch. Is any of it a miarage? That's
all we're looking for. Really, there's an opportunity, I think,
in this game for someone to emerge as more than
just a Big twelve contender. Like right now, no one's
thinking about any Big twelve team in the national title picture,
and that's okay. There is a shot that one of

(01:08:02):
these wins emphatically enough Saturday to where you come out
of it saying new Texas Tech may be an actual
playoff contender above and beyond just making it, or a
Utah may be that above and beyond just making it.
I think Texas Tech can probably be comfortable in more
kinds of games, more game scripts, if you will. But

(01:08:22):
if Utah gets there is it doesn't really matter because
they only need one way to win. Let's take a
look at what the model thinks. Utah is favored right
now at FanDuel by two and a half. The model
is a little more bullish on Utah. It's got a
minus four. I have no idea. So you know what
I'm gonna do. Out of these two teams, I went

(01:08:42):
and visited one, I watched one in the spring, so
I feel a little more knowledgeable on them, and that's
Texas Tech. I'm gonna roll the dice on Texas Tech. Actually,
I'm not rolling the dice at all. I'm not betting
a dime on this game, but I am going Texas
Tech to win the game outright. A lot of skill
in this one, I think. Just have fun sitting back
and watching it. But if you do, sorry, Brole, I

(01:09:05):
didn't give you enough pad there. If you do feel
like placing a wager on this one, friendly or otherwise,
FanDuel is the place to do it, the exclusive odds
provider of Paate State, and also a place where not
only could you go bet this game, but if you
don't want to bet this game, you know you could
just go bet one of these teams to win the
Big Twelve. That's there as well. Oh by the way,

(01:09:27):
those are the number one and two teams in the
odds to win the Big Twelve, and they're playing this
Saturday at ten am local time. If you're a new
customer at FanDuel, if you haven't signed up, make sure
that you can responsibly do it. And if you want
to do it, there's a QR code on your screen,
or you can just go FanDuel dot com forward slash

(01:09:47):
Josh Pate. I'm getting you a bonus bet. As soon
as you get in there. You bet five dollars on
any bet and it wins. You get three hundred dollars
in bonus bets. And every week there's there's a whole,
a whole host of you who keep finding out there's
no hidden anything there. You just bet five dollars on
some big favorite on the money line, they win, and

(01:10:11):
you get three hundred dollars in bonus bets. It's not
free money, cause technically it's not guaranteed, but if you
know what you're doing, it's pretty close to guaranteed. So
so we encourage you to take advantage of that.

Speaker 4 (01:10:22):
Must be twenty one plus and present in select states
for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or eighteen
plus and present in DC first online real money wager
only five dollars first deposit required. Bonus issued as non
withthrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply.
See terms at sportsbook dot FanDuel dot com. Gambling problem
call one eight hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot com

(01:10:44):
slash RG call one eight eight eight seven eight nine
seventy seven seventy seven, or visit CCPG dot org slash
chat in Connecticut, or visit nd gamblinghelp dot org in Maryland.
Hope is here. Visit gambling Helplinema dot org. Or call
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four to seven support in Massachusetts or call one eight
seven seven eight Hope, n y or text Hope and

(01:11:05):
why in New York.

Speaker 1 (01:11:06):
As we close the show out tonight, we have got one, two, three,
four added best bets to remind you who were already on.
We locked in Troy plus six and a half at Buffalo.
That number has since dropped to five and a half.
I hope you got it when we handed it out.
We have locked in Northern Illinois plus twenty two and
a half at Mississippi State. That number has since moved

(01:11:29):
to twenty one and a half. Still like it, but
I hope you got it when we got it. We
have locked in Oklahoma minus five and a half versus Auburn.
That one's at six and a half now may push
over seven. Hope you got it when we handed it out.
It's very important to be watching the shows when we
hand these things out. Let's add four more Michigan State.

(01:11:51):
I love the spot for them. You may not believe
this about me, but I've watched every snap of Michigan
State this year. I don't even particularly know why I
watched the Youngstown State game this morning or last night.
I don't know why I feel intimately familiar with Michigan
State and US. He's coming off a cross country road game.

(01:12:12):
They've got another one on deck against Illinois next week.
Everyone circled the Illinois game, Michigan State coming into the
coliseum getting eighteen and a half. I'm taking Michigan State
plus the points. I'm taking Nebraska plus two and a
half as a best bet. I think they're gonna win
the game outright against Michigan. Model loves Nebraska. Syracuse plays Clemson.

(01:12:37):
They're getting seventeen and a half. I think they're going
to come in under that number, So I'll take Syracuse
plus seventeen and a half. They let us down against
Tennessee in Week one, they'll make it up to as
Fran Brown always does. And do you know what's happening
in Memphis? Tennessee this Saturday. Well strictly from a football perspective,

(01:12:58):
Memphis is playing Arkansas. You may think to yourself, Josh,
you mean in Fayetville, right, I don't. I mean in Memphis. Inexplicably,
and they are getting seven and a half. And do
you know who Arkansas played last week? They play Old
Miss last week. Do you know who they played?

Speaker 2 (01:13:13):
Next week?

Speaker 1 (01:13:15):
They play a team from South Bend, Indiana. I forget
the name, Notre Dame, that's who it is. And they
go to Memphis in between that. So Ryan Silverfield is
looking to keep his name on the radar for a
lot of these jobs. And they're just good cause it's
Memphis and Arkansas's rolling in there. Let down, look ahead

(01:13:35):
spot super Bowl spot from Memphis. Give me Memphis plus
seven and a half. We're taking Michigan State and Nebraska,
Syracuse and Memphis. Those are the four teams that we
just added. Appreciate you guys so much. Remember we start
the Thursday show a little early, so we start at
seven eastern, sixth Central. We'll be live, We'll be here.
I appreciate you guys. Make sure you're subscribed now. You

(01:13:57):
guys are doing the job I just thank you and
I you to continue to spread the word word of
mouth Ideal World. We continue to spend zero dollars on
marketing because you're doing the job for us. I appreciate
it more than you could ever know. For director Bradley,
producer Jesse, I'm Josh Pate. Take here, have a great
rest of your evening, and God bless.

Speaker 4 (01:14:30):
Must be twenty one plus and present in select states
for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or eighteen
plus and present in DC. First online real money wager
only five dollars first deposit required. Bonus issued as non
withdrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions
apply see terms at sportsbook dot FanDuel dot com. Gambling
problem call one eight hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot com,

(01:14:52):
slash RG call one eight eight eight seven eight nine
seventy seven seventy seven, or visit CCPG dot org slash
chat in Connecticut, or visit and D Gamblinghelp dot org
in Marland. Hope is here, Visit Gambling helplinem dot org
or call eight hundred three two seven fifty fifty for
twenty four seven support in Massachusetts or call one eight
seven seven eight hope n Y. Or text hope n

(01:15:13):
Y in New York