Week 5 Predictions + Mike Gundy Fired & New JP Poll

College Football week 5 predictions are here as we’ve entered game week for Alabama vs UGA and Oregon vs Penn State. Will Kalen DeBoer be able to take the Tide into Athens and beat Kirby Smart? What about Dan Lanning looking for a big win over James Franklin in whiteout conditions? LSU vs Ole Miss and Auburn vs Texas A&M are some other big matchups in the SEC. The week 5 edition of the JP Poll is out as we take a look at big movements in the top ten. Where are Ohio State and Michigan? Does Clemson fall out of the top 25? Could Miami take the top spot? What’s next for head coaches like Billy Napier and Mike Gundy as the hot seat conversation continues to churn? All that plus best bets on the Ramen Noodle Express.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:14):
Yeah, I don't really know what to say. I'm looking
at my John Mattire Heisman ticket. I'm not ripping it up.
It's gonna take a whole lot more than one little
broken bone in a hand and prayers up for John
Mattire by the way to rip up this Heisman ticket.
But I was getting too good. I'm like Kit, I'm
like the little sister and a league of their own.

(00:35):
I get ahead of the John Mattire curb. I bet
an inordinate amount of money on a Heisman ticket for
John Mattire and then what happens broken hand which apparently
he played with and still good enough to beat Auburn.
Does that impact my Auburn A and M game preview tonight?
I can't say no. So yeah, I'm just spilling emotion
all over the place as we come on the air.

(00:55):
In case you missed it today, John matteer out for
a few weeks with I think broken bone in the hand,
Jesse whatever. His hand is hurt, my heart is hurt.
We're jam packed. Still, we're gonna do the show tonight.
It's Tuesday, September twenty third, Thear of Our Lord twenty
twenty five High Top a lovely downtown Nashville, Tennessee. It
is show Me Saturday. I'm not the biggest on these

(01:19):
nicknamed Saturdays, but buddy, it is show me Saturday. Because
there's a lot of things that I thought I knew
in August that I have divorced myself from. There's some
other stuff I'm trying to figure out that I got
all these top teams, and I need to know are
you real? Am I imagining you? Are you real? So
we're gonna find out a lot. We've got some folks

(01:40):
with the backs against the wall already can't afford another loss.
Notre Dame, You're gonna be one in three after Saturday.
So Mike Gunny got fired today. He didn't retire, he
didn't resign, he got fired. We will discuss JP pole
is out tonight. I'm looking at it right now. I
hate it. For those of you who think that this

(02:01):
is my poll immunity, Nah, that's the model's poll. And
tonight I dare I say I will have a bigger
issue with the JP pole tonight than the haters who
notably have an issue with it every week. We'll see
all that plus some added best bets. We got a
jam packed show that is a sizeable, sizeable pack of papers.

(02:22):
They're watching us in Texar, Canada, Texas, Alpharetta, Georgia, bear Lake, Michigan,
Fort Collins, Colorado. I gotta tell you we could win
awards for how loaded the Instagram story was this past weekend.
It figures to be that way again because we're doing
multiple games Saturday. Plus I've got it on good authority
that we may not get rained out for softball Friday night,

(02:42):
because that's the stupidity of the life that we live.
We stay in Nashville so we can play slow pitch
softball on Friday, then we go to two game Saturday.
It's all documented at Josh pat CFB. If you're not
following on Instagram, and like one hundred thousand of you are,
but if you're not head over there, it doesn't cost anything,
just like it doesn't cost anything to subscribed to the
YouTube channel, which we're pushing five hundred k on. So

(03:04):
I appreciate you guys. This is a very serious show Tonight.
We may laugh some, but this show is no laughing matter.
It's prediction Tuesday Tuesdays when we do business around here.
So where shall we start? Probably with the game one
of the games that we're going to go to Alabama
at Georgia Saturday, seven thirty eastern kickoff on ABC. Let

(03:27):
me set the table for you. This game happened last year.
It was a five chaly classic. We were there. It
was in Tuscaloosa. Bama got up by like fifty somehow
Georgia then had the lead in the game. I cannot
in strong enough terms encourage you to rewatch that game
this week as we head into this game, because I

(03:47):
want you to know that thing was forty one thirty four,
and the total on this game this year's fifty two
and a half. Interesting little stroke of the chin. There
over eight hundred passing yards in this game. Last years
thirty three consecutive home wins. I can hear people clipping
that for hype videos even as I speak. But listen,

(04:08):
it's extremely hard to play there. It is extremely difficult
to beat Georgia anywhere. But when you marry the two,
that winning streak makes a lot of sense. Now there
are some out there who would tell you that doesn't
really matter for Alabama because Alabama's had Georgia's number. I
promise you it matters. As we get into this. It's
good that Bama's getting jam Miller back, great phenomenal. Can't wait.

(04:31):
Remember this is my national champion, so I picked them.
I need them to be healthy. Tim Keenan back, huge deal.
I don't want to overlook any of that. That's why
I want to mention that right up front in this video.
Here's how I think this game's gonna go. I expect
a defiant effort from Georgia. And what I mean is
kind of like last year when they went and played
Texas and there were people me included, I think, validly

(04:56):
questioning them, questioning their medal. Why aren't you stopping the run?
Why can't you run the ball? All this stuff, and
they had a stat profile. It was several weeks into
the season, it wasn't early. And then they went to
Texas and just kind of turned it on its ear
and they just threw Texas in a wood chipper in
their own building in Austin, and then did it again
in Atlanta a few weeks later, and I remember thinking

(05:18):
to myself, good, that's Georgia. It almost makes me angry.
I didn't see that version of Georgia earlier, so we're
a lot earlier in the season this year than when
they played Texas last year. And this game's in Athens,
it's not in Tuscaloosa or Austin or anything like that.
But they're sixty second in pressure rate right now. They're
one hundred and fifteenth in sacks. So you can look

(05:39):
at those numbers or you can just try and picture
this in your head. I got an Alabama offensive line
that's been very iffy. I've got a program the past
couple of years. It's been a little iffy on the road.
They've been prone to penalties, they've been prone to giving
up pressures on your quarterback. Just force it, just make
it happen. That's a defiant effort. That's what I mean.

(06:00):
That you take the piece of paper and then you
realize paper don't play as me Mall would say, players do.
Coaching staffs get players ready, and then players go play.
The Alabama offensive line I think has a lot to
prove here, a lot to prove. You go back and
watch that Florida State game and everyone's kind of wondering,
what do we do with that tape? What do we
do with that outcome? Is Florida State secretly great? Was

(06:22):
that just this one off. I don't know yet. I
told you after that game concluded. The next time I'll
really find anything out about Bama is three weeks from
now at that point, which was the road game at Georgia,
because that's the next time they'll be thrown in a
blender on the road. So here we go. It's a
few days away. I just I remember that Texas game

(06:44):
last year, and I've watched Kirby smart Georgia teams, and
sometimes it plays true to what the stat sheet tells you.
There are other times they just have this defiant manner
about themselves, and they have this defiant effort that they
put forth. And sometimes you'll watch them like I did
against Texas and they're just getting after the quarterback all
night and I'm like, boy, that hasn't been there all year.

(07:07):
Where did it come from? Well? The answer is it
was always there. They just for whatever reason, had it
bottled up and didn't really have the strength to twist
the top until the Texas game. I think another thing
could be in play there, and that is Georgia only
feels truly threatened a few times a year. Georgia only
feels like people doubt them a few times a year.

(07:27):
People doubted him on the road at Texas last year.
And I'll tell you, as much as Bama looked bad
in Week one, that has kind of subsided because they've
buzz sawed everybody they've played since then, and they're going
to go in here and this line's two and a half.
This thing dropped below a field goal today it's two
and a half in favor of Georgia, which implies maybe
Bama even a slight favorite on a neutral field, Georgia

(07:49):
feels a little doubted here. That's when you tend to
get those efforts from them. So that's the first thing
I'm looking for. The second thing is it's a really
really big competitive character test. I'll use the M word.
It's a really big manhood test for Georgia. We give
Dave Blue full freedom to echo that all throughout that building.
You do whatever you need to do. But Bama ninety

(08:12):
first in penalties right now, Georgia fourth. Georgia. It was
so impressive to watch them go into Knoxville, not a
single false start. Now they won't have to deal with
crowd noise this Saturday, but point being, that's indicative of
a very, very disciplined team. It's a high competitive character team.
I think that's in Alabama. I just think they have
to show it here. It's a real gut check moment

(08:34):
because for all the what IFFs that you could talk about,
and there are several ways Bama could have a lot
of success Saturday, it all works downstream of having composure
and really having toughness. By that, I mean you got
to nut up a little bit against that pass rush
and give your guy time to throw. Because when Ty
Simpsons had time to throw, he's looked surgical this year.

(08:55):
What was he like forty one to forty six the
last couple of weeks. That really is a moot point.
He doesn't have time to throw. And if your offensive lineman,
specifically at the tackle positions look like Turnstiles all night,
and you understand who you're playing here. Even if Kirby
Smart doesn't have a front seven loaded with future first rounders,
he's got plenty good enough personnel and there are plenty

(09:16):
multiple enough to give you a lot of different looks,
a lot of different pressures. It's on the road anyway
you can't hear. So it is a big, big competitive
character gut check time for Alabama. Now if they answer
that bell, then it's game on, because if they answer
that bell, Bama's playing with the kind of precision that

(09:37):
can embarrass you. Alabama's got the kind of skill set
out wide that if a quarterback has time to throw,
can embarrass you. That includes Georgia. They can do a
lot of business against this Georgia secondary if they're given time,
which thanks the question how much time will Ty Simpson have?
I also think about getting jam Miller back. One of
the other things I kind of got to see to
believe with Alabama is you get your tail back back

(10:00):
jam Miller phenomenal camp obviously not penciled in but written
in sharpie as there areb one and they've been without
him and they get him back. If that just resurrects
their ground game, so be it. I frankly don't even
think they look for that to happen here. I think
they look to manufacture what would be rushing yard dige

(10:20):
a little more creatively. Then that be interesting to see
who all gets their hands on the ball in the
backfield this Saturday. But I just think Ty Simpson and
that wide receiver corps, I mean, if he's given any time,
they'll go to work here Tennessee. When Georgia went up
there had nine passes of fifteen plus yards. Ty Simpsons
forty one of forty six in his last two games

(10:43):
for six hundred and twelve, eight touchdowns, no picks. And
you look at the variety, not just the weapons Alabama
has in their wide receiver room. It's how unique, or
maybe how varied the personnel is. Ryan Williams. Everyone pops
on the Georgia tape last year when they talk about
Ryan Williams again, I'll be really interested to see how
they use him Saturday. Above and beyond the obvious, Jeremy

(11:06):
Bernard is the best receiver that they've had. Kirby Smart
talked about earlier this week. I agree with him. Isaiah
Horton a different, bigger body type guy, the one I
think could break out. It's lots Ofer Brooks in this game.
You got a lot of guys that you got to
account for here. I don't know that Georgia's secondary is
as deep with proven talent. In fact, I know they're

(11:26):
not as they have been in the past. Their defense
is ninety second in the country right now in thirty
plus yard pass plays given up. That's cause they've played
Tennessee and most other folks haven't. Okay, so that warps
the stack category a little bit. But then you think
to yourself, this group could do exactly what Tennessee did
to you, albeit in your own building, if you give

(11:48):
them time. So that's the Bama side of things offensively.
Then you talk about the Georgia side of things offensively,
and I just want you to fill in this blank
for me, georgiating Gunner Stockton is what? Is it a
huge issue all night? Is it sort of an issue?

(12:08):
Is it spotty? Is it a non issue? Does this
offensive line just beautifully answer the bell? If they do,
Georgia could win this thing by double digits. One of
the things you got to bank on if you're siding
with Alabama in this game is they're the number five
team in the country according to PFF, at least in
pressure rate, and they're facing a really vulnerable offensive line.

(12:30):
As of this moment, I got no clue what Georgia
is going to do on the right side of their
offensive line, but that quick pass games got to be there,
Their run games got to be there. You talk about
a competitive character test, a manhood test, it makes a
lot of this academic If you can just run the
ball for four point eight yards per carry, that wouldn't
set the world on fire. It wouldn't set records, but
it'd be good enough for Georgia to then also incorporate

(12:52):
that quarterback run game, which a lot of these teams
with quarterbacks that have mobility about themselves gear up for
these games. That's where it's worked into the script and
elsewhere it's just kind of we know we can win
by throwing our helmet out there. I look forward to
seeing the tight end position in this game as well,
because I think the tight end position Dell lost and

(13:13):
lucky guys that would you know, be star they're stars there,
but I'm they're the kinds of guys if I plug
them in Penn State's offense randomly, would Shine would be
leading receiver type material. Georgia happens to have loaded up
at wide receiver a fair mountain themselves, which leads me
to my next point. For all the weaponry we're talking
about with Alabama, Georgia, they've got some guys out wide too.

(13:38):
They specifically retooled that room. I think for games like this.
They watched what Bama did to him last year to
get out to that early lead and then they responded.
But I think their skill set is different above and
beyond this year in the wide receiver department now than
it was last year. I really think they want the
option if they get in those types of games to

(14:00):
feel totally comfortable. That's in our wheelhouse. Now, it's not
uncomfortable at all. That's in our wheelhouse. The intangibles in
this game probably matter about as much as any of
these big games this Saturday. You can talk all you
want to about Bama being on the road and think
it has this reverse psychological effect of if I talk
about it enough, maybe it won't be an issue. It's

(14:22):
an issue until proven otherwise. Guys, that Oklahoma results not
going away, that Vandy results not going away, that Florida
State results not going away, and people want to get
mad at it. They can get mad at it. They've
been a different team on the road than they have
been at home. That's got to change or else you
chalk these games up as losses. But George's got a
Bama issue as well. And if you don't think that's real,

(14:44):
then I don't really know that you've been watching this.
I have watched Georgia torment Tennessee torment them. I've watched
Bama torment Georgia. So if you're a Georgia fan and
you believe in that intangible variable mattering in the Tennessee match,
it matters here as well. Let's take a look at
what the model thinks about this game. The FanDuel number

(15:06):
right now is Georgia minus two and a half, which
changed this afternoon, right Jesse, I think it changed this afternoon.
Model kind of agrees with what it already was. Models
got Georgia minus three and a half. Here's where I'm
going with this, the exact same way I went when
Georgia went up to Nieland Stadium. If I'm going to
be proven wrong on this, I'm going to be proven

(15:27):
wrong by Georgia losing in a place they haven't lost
in since I don't know, it's been a long long time.
If I'm going to be proven wrong, I'm going to
be proven wrong by Bama thriving on the road instead
of struggling like they have recently. So until I see
both of those things change simultaneously, to me, this is

(15:47):
Georgia's game, So I'll take Georgia to win. I'll take
Georgia to cover and we'll be there either way. We
will be there looking really really forward to that one.
That is about the most intense matchup that I've seen
in this league over the past several years. We had
that crazy stat Jesse. I can't remember exactly what it was.
We should have written it down. That matchup Georgia or Alabama.

(16:11):
That's been every SEC champ since like twenty fourteen, except
for one year when LSU won it in twenty nineteen.
Crazy quick trip will fuel us. We'll be at the
USC Illinois game early Saturday, will hop down to Athens
for the primetime kickoff. Quick trip will fuel it all.
Maybe even some cold brew on tap along the way.

(16:32):
Who knows for Lucky you know, quick trip fuels the
entire tour. They fueled the tour last year, They are
fueling the faultl Live tour this year. Now. They did
not commission that beautiful artwork. They could have. They could have,
but pres took care of the artwork. But yeah, they
just say, hey, wherever you want to go, just point

(16:53):
to it on a map. We'll get you there, done
and done. And then just for good measure, they talk
side a whole lot of free gas to you guys.
So I mean I do that at my leisure. They've
given me full freedom to just throw out gas cards
whenever I want to. And as you can see if
you're following me on the socials at Josh pat CFP,

(17:14):
I proudly do that. So that game is brought to
you by Quick Trip. The entire Fall tour is brought
to you by Quick Trip. We appreciate and love quick
trip around here. Next up the big matchups. Just never
m We got Monster Game after Monster Game Oregon at

(17:36):
Penn State. We've waited for this one. This is Saturday.
This is seven thirty Eastern on NBC. You know what
that means, kids, white out in conference play hoops amongst
us thought we'd ever see it again. We thought the
white out was a thing of the past, like like
Andy Griffith and Black and White. You hear about it
from the olds, but you think I'll never see it myself. Well,

(17:59):
here it is. We see the white out as God
intended it. At night in front of the world with
a top five opponent in town, number two versus number
three in the Big ten odds right here, number two
versus number three in the college football playoff odds. Let's
go ahead and get it out of the way. We
have to do it. James Franklin is a massive friend

(18:19):
of this program. James Franklin is also four and twenty
versus the top ten at Penn State. There you go,
all right. I read the stat You know the thing.
I read the stat The dynamics give Penn State a
massive edge here. We've talked about it since spring because
we had the schedule in hand already. So here's what
Oregon's working against. Poor Oregon. At last check, They're still

(18:42):
going to show up. But poor Oregon. They are taking
a young team on the road for the first time.
Penn State is off a bye. So you've got that
just alone, that's a huge deal. You've got the white out.
I mean, you've got Oregon having ripped Montana State and
in Oklahoma State and Northwestern and Oregon State to pieces,

(19:02):
and no one's put an ounce of pressure on him,
and now the pressure is going to be felt in
what some would call the most hostile environment college football
has to offer. I wouldn't even be pushing back on that,
by the way. I've seen a white out, but it
was Auburn, and Jesse tells me that that's not that's
not as good as what this will be. That's what
Jesse tells me at least, So that's what you have

(19:23):
to go up against if you're Oregon. Make no mistake
about this. All the keys everyone's going to point out,
this is about Drew Aller. That's who this game's about.
There is a world where Penn State runs for two
hundred and they still lose. And I know that because
I watched him run for two ninety seven against Oregon
in the Big Ten championship game last year and guess what,

(19:45):
they still lost. So all due respect to the ground game,
I assume they'll get theirs. I know they will. No
one's gonna shut down Penn State running the ball, but
Drew Aller some of these look like typos. He's two
of nine on throws of over twenty yards in the
air so far this year. Now, Josh, they hadn't played anybody.

(20:06):
You're right, I'll get back to that in a second. Also,
they've had six explosive passes all year. That's good for
ninety fifth in the country, so top one hundred, I guess, Josh,
But they haven't played anybody. All right, I've heard you
guys say that to me over and over again. Here's
my question, are you insinuating they're holding something back? Of
course they're holding something back. Are you insinuating to me

(20:27):
that Penn State actually just possesses the ability to stretch
the field vertically any old time they want to, and
they've simply bottled that up so far. If you're right,
this is a really big deal. And if you're right,
I need to pick Penn State to win this game
and they will emerge from this as a bona fide
national championship contender. Now, Oregon has the fiftieth run defense
in the country, so again I expect Penn State to

(20:50):
do a fair amount of business on the ground. Like
I said, they ran it for three hundred in the
Big Ten Championship game they lost, So that is not
the padlock stat that someone want to make it out
to be. Now here's what else has to happen here.
Dante Moore, quarterback for Oregon, really good player has not
faced this kind of environment. They got to go in
there and try to maintain what they've been doing and

(21:13):
avoid the crowbar. They got to avoid crowbar theory working
its way into this game. They've had thirty one plays
of twenty plus through the air already this year, and
if you hadn't watched Oregon, and judging by their competition
so far, you probably haven't, he's near seventy five percent completion.
So if I'm a Penn State fan, I'm listening to that,
I'm just yep, Yeah, I know he's good. Yeah, he

(21:35):
hadn't faced us, And you're right, he hadn't faced you
to Korean Moore versus Aj Harris. If that's the matchup
we get in this game, Aj Harris, I think he's
been thrown at like once all year. No one's dumb
enough to even throw to him. Central Phoenix City High
School product, By the way, Oregon will throw that way.
They're I don't care who you're putting on to Korean Moore,

(21:57):
They're going to make you prove that there's not anything
to be done on that side of the field. But
Oregon's offensive line going on the road against the number
twelve pressure rate defense in the country, that's really what
we're looking at here, because there is, of course, as
much as I said, there's a world where Penn State's
rushing numbers don't end up being the end all be all.
There is a world where they do end up winning

(22:19):
the game because Penn State and the pressure they can
put on Oregon kind of puts them in a blender
and Penn State realizes, oh, we can compress the game.
Oh wow, twenty three is gonna win this game. Twenty
four points gonna win this game. Wow, Well, maybe Drew
Dutton need to throw it all over the place. Yeah,
that's possible. Remember Jim Knowles, who is the DC at
Penn State, now faced Oregon twice last year, faced will

(22:41):
Stein twice last year, once in Eugene, and then they
just completely overhaul everything about their approach and suffocated them
a few months later in Pasadena, it was like, not
even the same teams play them. Penn State's got to
finish drives here, they gotta finish drive so touch down
percentage in the red zone. Oregon sixteenth, Penn State eighty eighth.

(23:05):
What I cannot stand, especially if I'm picking Penn State,
is I can't stand these games where I got a
lot of hope as they're moving down the field. The
Ohio State game is kind of like this. Last year,
I got a lot of hope moving down the field
and then just settle for three. Settle for three. Settle
for three because the other guy sometimes doesn't settle for three.
If it's that kind of game again, if it just

(23:27):
goes the way that is not Penn State. Can't you
hear the call in shows? Can't you imagine the message
board threads more the same look good between the twenties.
Couldn't finish drives a thirty to twenty sixth final because
we couldn't punch it in and they did. I mean,
especially when you've got all these edges tilted your way.

(23:47):
This is a very young Oregon team on the road.
There's every reason for them to just go learn a
tough lesson against you. And you teach the tough lesson
you win this game because you're supposed to win this game.
And they lose this game and they look and say, oh,
it's not the end of the world. It will be
a different team two months from now. That's the way
this is kind of supposed to play out. What has
Penn State saved for this game? To get back to

(24:08):
that theory, strong working theory. A lot of my Penn
State folks share this theory and that is. Yeah, offense
has been pretty bowlding shoe ugly so far. That's okay, though.
That's okay because we haven't had to show anything. People
have been talking about Penn State's first three games like
their spring games. We're not showing anything against Nevada or
FIU or Villanova. Cool. Well, if that theory is correct,

(24:31):
and to some extent it has to be correct, this
is where you break it out. I got an over
under for you. This is not available at FanDuel. It
could be Jesse Caufanduel. I got a good prop for them.
So my prop is, well, first, let me tell you
my theory. I think I think there are issues with
the Penn State passing game. I don't think Penn State's
going to light the world on fire through the air.

(24:54):
If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I'm probably not, though, So
here's my question. How many penns eight snaps does Drew
Aller not take? Now, I'm not talking about injury, okay,
no one's predicting injury. Drew Aller's healthy Saturday. I'm asking
you how many snaps offensively for Penn State go to
someone other than Drew Holler. And I'm gonna set the

(25:16):
over under it five and a half. Where do you go,
Penn State, folks, especially, where do you go? I think
I'm over. We moved it from four and a half
to five and a half, so there was some internal
movement in the office. Today, I'm gonna take the over.
I think they get as not desperate, but competitively creative
as a Penn State offensive game plan has been in

(25:39):
quite a while. I think they know they have to
do it. That's how I think the game of playout.
Having said that, let's take a look at what the
model thinks. FanDuel right now has Penn State is a
three and a half point favorite. The model disagrees completely.
It has it at a pick em, so the model
strong lean towards Oregon. I'm going to make a principled
call here. I'm gonna go against the model and seventy

(26:02):
five percent of our audience, apparently in the poll I
have posted earlier today. Penn State's just got to win
this game. They've just got to win the game. You
could not right this thing with any more edge tilted
towards Penn State than there is, so, of course, Oregon
phenomenal team by the end of the year. If they
face off again, I'd probably pick Oregon in this spot.

(26:24):
I'm just telling you, I think it's a desperation spot
for Penn State. They have geared up for this thing
all spring, all summer. They know what's at stake. They know.
I mean, if they lose this thing, the odds of
going into Columbus and winning in another month or two
not great. It's gonna be tough anyway. They've just got
to get it. This is one of these things, one

(26:45):
of these big games eventually has to go their way.
And I just think, if you're listening on podcasts, I'm
doing that thing where you put the index finger in
the thumb on the insides of the eyes. But I
don't even have a headache. I'm just preparing. I'm gonna
take Penn State in a big game. I'm gonna take
James Franklin in a big game. There's the poll immunity.
I posted this earlier today. We got like nearly fourteen

(27:09):
thousand votes on this, and I basically posed this question,
the entire fate of the world rides on you being right.
Who wins this game? Saturday? And seventy people, seventy four
percent of the country picked the three and a half
point underdog to win the game. Out right, So where

(27:30):
are we is a society? I'm gonna ask a lot
of Mike Gundhy questions here? Where are we as a society?
Seventy five percent of you say, I don't even need
the points. Just canna be Oregon outright? My goodness, speaking
of Mike Gundy. Hard transition there, Bradley, I know, I know,
it's tough. We lost an American icon today. He's okay,

(27:56):
He's perfectly healthy. It's just Mike Guandhy lost his job.
This is huge news. He was the second longest tenured
head coach in major college football. Kirk Ferrence at Iowa
is the only other one. Mike Gundhy had had the
Oklahoma State job for twenty one seasons. Quickly, those of
you who were listening out there, who was the head

(28:17):
coach at Oklahoma State before Mike Guandhy. Who did Mike
Gandhy replace at Oklahoma State? If numbers don't mean anything
to you, I'm about to make it hit home. Less
Miles was the coach that Mike Gandhy replaced. Miles has
long since been at LSU for a long time, been
gone from LSU for a long time, coached at Kansas

(28:39):
and has gone from there now, and Mike Gandy was
still just hanging out in still Water, Oh by the way.
From six to twenty twenty three, above five hundred every year.
Just an incredible run, and it ended poorly, as most
ten years do, very few of them end on your terms.
But there's a bunch of young adults around still who

(29:00):
have never known an Oklahoma State coaching search. I mean,
I got folks in their early to mid twenties who
either weren't alive or were and can't remember the last
time this job ever came open. So let's do a
quick check here. We already had Brent Pry fired at
Virginia Tech, we had Deshan Foster fired at UCLA. Now

(29:21):
we got Mike Gundy fired at Oklahoma State. I think
it's fair to ask the question, well, if they were
on such unstable footing that it's September twenty third and
you're already ready to fire him, why did they start
the season as your head coach? A lot of times
those are very very complex questions. However, sometimes people overthink

(29:43):
the room, and when you ask that question, you're asking
the right question. I always ask that anytime a guy
loses his job in September, just the principal side of
me thinks, Okay, if he had less than four weeks
of rope left, why did he ever start the season
to begin with. So here's kind of the long and
short of it, and maybe Mike Gundy will tell his

(30:06):
story eventually. I don't know. I think he was already
checked out this year. The word was that it was
a complete disaster behind the scenes at Oklahoma State, and
the word was they came to him and sort of
strong armed him into taking a pay cut this past year,
and the pay cut, the money saved from the pay
cut was going to go into the nil fund, and

(30:26):
then he took the pay cut, and then the money
didn't really go where he expected it to go. A
lot of staffers kind of got out of dodge when
they could, And I really think Mike Gundy was just
kind of on autopilot this year. He acted like it,
He carried himself like it from afar and I don't
blame him. I don't even blame him. Hate that there
are players there whose one experience in college football has

(30:49):
to be burned during this the ad today comes out
flat out says, I'm not worried about this year, the
next few weeks. I'm not worried about that. I'm worried
about the next several years. Cool. Screw you to all
the guys still here. Oh but by the way, we
expect you to suit up and play every Saturday. You know,
it's an opportunity here for Oklahoma State, obviously to go
make a new hire. He was not afforded the opportunity

(31:12):
to retire and finish the season. Reportedly, so there were
some mixed reports out there earlier today. They came to
him and said, do you want to announce your retirement,
We'll let you know finish the season. Apparently that wasn't
the case. These folks hated each other. I mean, Mike
Gundy wasn't getting along with anyone in the administration there.
That's well known in Oklahoma State circles. I just know

(31:32):
people who live in ann Arbor, Michigan aren't paying a
whole lot of attention to Oklahoma State. So Mike Gundhy's
next move, according to those close to him, is he
wants to get right back into coaching. Football coaches are
put on this earth to coach. I got no problem
coach till you're one hundred, for all I care. But selfishly,

(31:53):
I hope he takes a few years off from coaching,
because Mike Gundy, unfiltered, with a microphone in front of him,
would be about as entertaining as any pregame show could
hope to produce to you, any kind of studio show
could hope to offer you. I don't even know which
network it could be us, for all I care, I've

(32:13):
never co hosted the show with anyone. If Mike Gundhy
hit us up and said, I want to do a
few shows with you done, me and Mike Gundy, and
I'd probably shut up most of the time. It'd be
that amazing. Now you could say he was never really
all that unfair. He was never really all that filtered,
even as a coach. You're right, but even I know
even you and I know he held some stuff back.

(32:35):
I'd just love to hear his take on the game
with no consequences tied to it. I'd love to hear that.
I mean, Mike Gundy on television would be mussy. And
there are many people out there that are really must
see appointment viewing. For me, that would be one of them.
What kind of job is this? I don't really know
that I fully formed my opinion on this yet. I'm

(32:57):
looking at my phone right now and there are you know,
several people who have hit me up even as we've
been on air to talk about this very subject. I
think Zach Robinson, who is the OC right now for
the Atlanta Falcons, I certainly think from the donor class there,
he's the overwhelming favorite. If I had to guess, I

(33:17):
would say I think he'll get the job. I have
no idea, because again I got to talk to a
lot of people before I have any kind of opinion.
So mine's just a guess on that front. But if
you've got a coaching opening right now and you're looking
to go the up and coming coordinator route, boy, it's
a good time. It's a good time. Shannon Dawson's down
at Miami, phenomenal coach, Will Stein at Oregon, Ben Arbuckle

(33:40):
at Oklahoma just down the road. I mean, our Buckle
could live in the same house he's in right now.
Colin Klein. Can you imagine Oklahoma State going and grabbing
Colin Klein before Kansas State can have their job open
and go get Colin Klein. My goodness, But I just
wonder now, I'm always fascinated by this because it's a very,
very tumultuous time in college Athay, So I'm always fascinated

(34:01):
at the perception of a job, the profile of a
job Virginia Tech same way. What do you think about
the job? That's the first thing I'm asking coaches, That's
the first thing I'm asking agents. How do you see
that job? And that's what will dominate a lot of
my free time over the next few days. I have
huge news here, though you think Mike Gundi being fired

(34:21):
today was big news. We got a new partner. We
got a new partner. When we took control of our show.
One of my main motivations was I wanted to make
sure that we had full control to say no anytime

(34:42):
that some executive came to us with some company that
was going to buy advertising on our show, because I
only want to present brands on our show that we
actually believe in and have relationships with, and you can't
do that if you're working for someone else. So we
never really had issues with this, but I wanted to
get ahead of the curve on it. So when we
took ownership of the show, I promised you, guys, hey,

(35:05):
when we have a partner on the show, you're gonna
have tangible benefit from it. At number one and number two,
you can rest assured that we're partnering with them because
we love them, because we got a relationship with them,
and we say no to millions of dollars per year
because we can say no to it because we have
full right of refusal on that. Let me tell you
who we said yes to. So I've been working back

(35:29):
and forth with a company called flex Power, talking to
them back and forth. We are launching a partnership with
them tonight. I'm ecstatic about it because they are longtime
viewers of the show, so they are friends of Peate State.
So they are like you, except they may just happen
to run a company, which is just a small difference.
It's not that big a difference. Here is why I

(35:50):
wanted to partner with them, because when I walk through
a sea of tailgating every single weekend, I see generators
all over the place. And then growing up up, I
would watch my dad need to do stuff and fix stuff.
It could be do it around the house type stuff.
It could be powering a pitching machine when we went
out to hit baseballs. But bring the generator out there

(36:12):
with you, homeowners, especially when storms move through. Been a
very inactive hurricane season so far, if anyone's paying attention
to the Atlantic basin, but that could change just like that.
We're in mid September, the speak of hurricane season right now.
You need backup generators. You need the Flex three thirty
I is the product, by the way, that I would
recommend you going to myflexpower dot com and checking out.

(36:35):
They're good friends of the program. I'm very happy to
be with them. I think in time you'll learn about
the products they have. But I would just encourage you again,
this is something most of you need anyway. It's one
of the number one things on any to do list
out there is, man, we need to get a generator.
We've got to make sure we get a generator good,
get the best, and get it from friends of ours

(36:56):
over at myflexpower dot Com. Always happy to enter a
new partner because we don't do it very often, but
when we do, we're introducing friends of the program. So
there you go. LSU. Sorry, sorry, Bradley Jump the gun
a little bit. LSU at ol Miss Saturday, three point
thirty Eastern, two thirty Grove Time, kickoff. ABC is the network.

(37:20):
This was a four point five Chali game last year.
There was a field storming last year. And remember this
is a game LSU won in overtime and they never
led for a second. Yeah, how rare that is to
win a game and you never led for a second.
They hit I think walk off field goal or walk
off touchdown. Whatever. It was so big question around this thing.

(37:43):
Oh who's gonna start at quarterback for old mess? I
don't care. Either one of them will be good. That's
my professional analysis there. I don't care. I know they
got five different wide receivers with one hundred and thirty
plus yards receiving so far. So no matter whopst has
been playing, they've been spreading the ball around. Remember we
were using the word controversy on this show. When you
got two good quarterbacks. It's not controversial, that's competition, that's depth,

(38:06):
it's not it's not controversy at all. But I regret
to inform you the thing is happening again for LSU
and the stat profiles starting to reflect it. Thirty first
in passing yards per game one hundred and twelfth in
rushing yards per game. So once again we're gonna do this, huh. Now,
the difference is they got a really good defense they

(38:27):
can lean on, so it hasn't cost them a game yet.
Garrett Nusmyer has been far less than one hundred percent,
and yet they're still throwing the ball much better than
their running the ball. I don't get it. It shouldn't
be an issue there, but it is. And the big
issue this weekend is that is absolutely how you attack
Old Miss. Ole Miss has the one hundred and twenty

(38:48):
second run defense in the country, and it may not
even matter because LSU hadn't been able to run the ball.
So LSU needs to run the ball here. Please, if
ever it shows up, make it show up this week.
It's a huge prove it spot for that offensive line
because one thing I do know about Ole Miss is
they can get after you, especially on the edge, and
doubly especially if you're vulnerable at tackle. They can get

(39:09):
after you, and triply especially if you're in a bunch
of obvious passing downs on third down. So I go
back to the same question we asked about LSU in
the preseason. We'll just ask it about this game. What
are you asking Garrett Nusmeyer to do? Last year, I
thought they asked him to do an unfair amount of things.
Hopefully he's not asked to shoulder an unfair amount of

(39:29):
the load against Saturday. Now, what is Lane kiff and
see against this LSU secondary? They've they had fifteen designed
QB runs last week with Trinidad Chambliss play him, so
I expect that to be baked into the game plan
again here LSU forty third pass D tenth rushing D.
You would think in the preseason, looking at the fact

(39:51):
that they had to face kid Club Nick Clemson week one,
they got to face DJ Lagway a few weeks later,
you would think by the time they play at Ole
Miss they face two really good passing attacks. Nope. Now,
could be that LSU is the common denominator there. LSU
just makes you look foolish. That may be the case.

(40:12):
If that's the case, then we need it again here.
I need full American hero Blake Baker mode from the defense.
I think LSU needs to play with the lead. That's
what I think. They have had twelve first quarter possessions
so far this year three touchdowns, two turnovers, six punts,

(40:34):
one missed field goal. And the problem here is ole
Miss can jump you. And if they do and you
look up and it's fourteen to three, then what do
you do. Well, you panic a little bit in your
play calling and you just got to throw the ball
fifty four times. And that is not where we want
to be. I don't even care if Msmier is fully healthy.
That is not where we want to be here. That's
not putting me in a good enough position or a

(40:55):
fair position. So there are a couple of games this
weekend where I actually think Road Team rabbing an early lead,
don't have to lead it, but be within one possession.
Don't ever been catch up mode. I think it's imperative.
Let's take a look at what the model thinks. So
right now you need to know LSU opened as a
favorite in this game. It has crossed zero ole Miss
as of this evening, and it is Thursday evening. If

(41:18):
you're watching the replay, ole Miss is now a one
and a half point favorite. And let me tell you,
the model says not enough that that line needs to
keep on moving to catch up with where the model is.
The model is all the way up to Ole Miss
minus four. Model thinks that the wrong team was favored.
The model now thinks the right team is favored, but
it's still not enough. Model thinks old Miss wins and covers,

(41:42):
and I do too, So gimme old Miss to win,
gimme old Miss to cover. I think there's still some
issues with this LSU team. They've been masked a little
bit because they have won games, which is very good.
And I also fully believe in the theory that it's
possible for a team to have issues early in the
year and get them worked out the season goes on.
Sometimes that happens, like with Florida last year, but it

(42:04):
was too late because they had already lost a bunch
of games by the time they figured it out. Well,
if you can play defense like LSU has so far,
maybe you don't have to lose. Maybe you keep winning
ugly and then you just end up winning. Maybe they're
watching us in Lawrenceville, Georgia at Shanghai, China. They said
they're using a VPN over there. I won't tell if
you won't. They're checking us out in Bloomington, Indiana also

(42:28):
tuned in, especially our friends in Bloomington will want to
stay tuned in for the JP pole release later because
I have it on good authority that a local team
there in Bloomington can't get more specific than that. Is
a big riser in the JP Pole. In the meantime,
Auburn at Texas A and M is a huge game Saturday,
three point thirty Eastern kickoff on ESPN. Really bad schedule

(42:52):
dynamics for Auburn. This is why that Oklahoma game was
so important. They go in there, they lose to Oklahoma,
and you knew even in the spring, Boy, if that
game goes sideways for them, If they lose that game,
they got to go right back on the road again
against a rested A and M team. So it's your
fifth game in a row, it's the second leg of
back to back road games, and you're facing a rested

(43:13):
team at home and they may be better than you anyway.
So that's all you got to do, Hugh Freeze and Auburn.
All you gotta is go in there and win in
those circumstances. Now, I've got good news for A and M.
Not that I've got more good news for A and M.
They're living off explosive passes I happen to have more
good news. Auburn is one hundred and eighth. Then explosive

(43:35):
passes allowed so far this year sounds pretty fundamental. Do
we want to go ahead and predict the game? Not
quite so fast. We have not seen at Auburn, at
least a pair like Casey Concepcion and Mario Craver. They
haven't seen talent like that. And look, Oklahoma's got good
players at wide receiver. These two are playing, especially Craver's

(43:57):
playing about as well as anyone in the country is
playing right now. It could feel a lot like the
Notre Dame game. Though. You go into that one and
you look at it from months away and you think, boy,
if A and M's gonna go up there and win
ground and pound, man, they got to go. Do Notre
Dame better than Notre Dame does Notre Dame. Well, that
wasn't what happened. They ran it for less than one

(44:18):
hundred and fifty, but they threw the ball all over
the place. And this is an Auburn run defense that
is number one in yards per attempt allowed. They're allowing
less than two yards per carry. So either Texas A
and M inverts that stack category or they got to
throw the ball again, and they can because Auburn is
very susceptible to it. On the back end. What that

(44:40):
does though, if you watch that Notre Dame game, you
saw Marcel Reid win the game for him, but you
also saw some very very interceptible balls that just weren't
picked off. He's fifty eight point six percent completion right now.
So if you make A and M throw the ball,
they can embarrass you doing it. They can also the
ball to you. So just it's part of the risk reward.

(45:04):
If we're gonna play that kind of ball at A
and M, it's part of the risk reward. Another spot here,
I think where the road team needs a really really
fast start, grab a lead, or at least respond and
be within one possession or in the lead, because I
cannot be asking Jackson Arnold to be on the road
playing catch up. It's the same as I said, but

(45:26):
nus Meyer, but I trust Arnold a lot less than us,
of course, but it's the same thing here. If they're
having to ask him to throw the ball in an
ordinate amount of times, it's not gonna happen. It's not
gonna work for them. A and m's pass rush Kyle
Field and by the way, a quarterback that I don't
think they trust to throw the ball all over the

(45:46):
middle of the field. I know they tried some last
week to some success. That's not where you're gonna live
in this game if you're Auburn. Jeremiah Cobbs a really
good tailback for them. Jackson Arnold versus the second I
think they're seventy second run d in the country right now.
A and M. So test that run on it. This
could be the kind of game if you're wondering how

(46:08):
Auburn could win this thing. Number One, they got really
good football players and they're desperate, So that's the first
way they could win it. The second way they could
win it is where you get a kind of game
thus settles. You look at the box score. They had
nineteen passes and fifty two runs. Because they started converting
first and ten, second, five, third, and two. Move the

(46:29):
chains just continue to put together these long, time consuming
drives and Marcel Reid maybe a little erratic passing, and
there's some three and outs on the other side. Auburn
starts to tilt time of possession, which is a Parker
Fleming special really advanced stat category. I know he loves
at stats of war. But more importantly, you start to
control game tempo, you start to control possessions, You start

(46:52):
to control how often Casey Concepts and Marrio Kraver are
on the field, and you're playing your game. You're running
the ball. Quarterback runs probably an instrumental part there, but
it's just a much lower risk approach. If Auburn wins
this game, I guarantee you it could be two to
one run to pass ratio. My concern is too much

(47:13):
will have to be asked of Jackson Arnold, because as
much as what I just said sounds good, pretty sure
they're aware of that strategy over at A and M
as well, and they're gonna be well prepared for this game.
Jackson Arnold last week got sacked ten times, and I
heard a lot of people just immediately start criticizing the
Auburn offensive line. And I'm not absolving them. I think

(47:35):
it was more to it than just oh, the Auburn
offensive line was a sieve. There were some times Jackson
Oarland just sat there and held the ball. And I'm
not sitting here pretending I'm some quarterback Officionado. But it
seemed like if read number one was covered up, it
was really tough getting through that progression to read two,
read three and again. This is not the place to

(47:58):
find yourself, Kyle. Is not the kind of place you
figure things out as a quarterback. Let's take a look
at what the model thinks. FanDuel right now has Texas
A and M minus six and a half. The model
is a little north of that. We've got A and
M minus seven and a half. It's the kind of
spot like Florida was in last or two weeks ago
at LSU, even last week when Florida was at Miami.

(48:21):
You know, you think to yourself, ultra talented, back against
the wall, wounded animal mode. This is just the kind
of game where that kind of team shows up. Somehow
they find a way, you know, the old bear crawl
over broken glass approach. But they're in it at the end.
And that's what my instinct tells me about this game.
The problem is the dynamics are such that you could

(48:44):
have a hard fought game and it ends up being
thirty to twenty because there's a late touchdown, just a backbreaker.
I'm gonna take a and M to win and cover.
The numbers minus six and a half. By the way,
I'm gonna take A and M to win and cover.
And if I'm right, that's a tough spot for Auburn.
You're already down two conference games over this little eight
day stretch here. Got to be tough. What's not tough

(49:07):
is figuring out where to get your clothing, to get
your sporting equipment, and I mean balls, bats, but also tents, canopies,
any kind of outdoor gear you need. You want to
go fishing, you can do it at Academy. Well they
don't have the actual pond there per se, but all
the equipment you would need is there at that point.
Nature provides the rest of it. Academy Sports Outdoors long

(49:30):
time partner of ours. The way we look at this
again with the partners that we choose, is we go
with folks who have stuff you're gonna buy anyway. I
know you guys are tailgating. I know you're sitting out
on the dock at home. If you're not tailgating, I
know you need chairs to sit in. Make sure they
say Academy on the back. It's great, it's like designer clothing,
but it's designer chairs instead, and they're much more affordable

(49:52):
the canopies, so you don't walk away from that tailgate.
The color of our logo here can't have that, guys,
sunburn sunpoison. It's a real thing. No one gets it
when they're under one of those Academy canopy tents. Plus,
it makes you more popular, more people want to hang
out with you. Now, if you're a social recluse, ignore

(50:13):
what I just said. But most of you have a
little butterfly about you. Academy helps there. Look, I would
even go as far as to say you can make
friends at Academy, but I know some of you don't
have one right there in your hometown. But you do
have the Internet because you're watching the show or listening,
and so you can go to Academy dot com and
find basically anything you need and then big League chew

(50:33):
in the checkout line. We continue. I mean to be
very clear. I want to remind you before anyone complains,
we're not even getting to all the games tonight. We'll
have several more games. We don't even hit until Thursday.
So if you're wondering where your game is, it's probably
on the Thursday. Show, which hasn't happened yet. Ohio State
at Washington is just great. Saturday, three thirty Eastern, twelve

(50:58):
thirty local kick. It's the Sea Game. Man. So Brad
and Gary and Jenny Dell in Lincoln, Nebraska last week,
all the way up to Seattle this week. Oh some travel.
I happen to know some of them live in South Florida,
so as some travel. Ohio State hitting the West coast,
a venue most of those fans have not been to.

(51:19):
They went out to Oregon last year. That was a
great scene. I am telling you, if you're on the fence,
buy the tickets. I'll give you a discount later in
the show. Actually buy the tickets, Go to the game,
Go see this. Get there as early as you can.
If you got upper deck tickets, by the way, get
in there the moment they open those gates. Get up
to your seat as quick as you can before the
place is filled up. And experience what I experienced two

(51:42):
years ago when I went to the Oregon game, and
that is watching the silence, the serenity over the water there.
Now the sun's already up by this point. I got
in there to watch the sunrise. It's just amazing places
like a screen saver. It's really amazing. Ohio State is
six and off a bye week under Ryan Day, but

(52:06):
Georgia notably has the longest home win streak in the country.
Who do you think is number two? It is Washington,
so not the easiest place to go play. Contrary to
the belief of people mainly who haven't been there, this
is a big test for each of these offensive lines.
You know, number one and number six in pressure rate

(52:27):
without blitzing. According to True Media, those are the two
defenses that we're talking about here. So they've gotten home.
They hadn't had to bring extra pressure to do it.
Washington the other thing I'm excited to see here. They
are known to man up on these receivers about as
much as any team in FBS. And I'm looking at

(52:47):
that and thinking, surely that changes against Ohio State, right,
I don't know, Maybe it doesn't. It's a bold strategy,
bolder than anything you see in dodgeball. If you just
look at Jeremiah Smith and Brandon Ennis and Carnel Tait
and all these guys and say, you know, I like
our corners one on one against you guys, Well that's

(53:07):
what they make popcorn for demon. Williams is one of
my favorite players. Most of you haven't watched him play
a lot. He's a starting quarterback at Washington. This is
sort of the game I've circled, not as his coming
out party. It's really hard to do that against Ohio State.
Could happen. Hard to do that against Ohio State. I
just know this is the moment most of America will

(53:28):
really be watching him for the first time. And I
wonder is it mostly his arm or is it the
full arsenal because he runs the ball fairly effectively, But
I don't know. Ohio State just looks too good to
run the ball on. He looks too good for a
quarterback run to be an integral part of what you do,
at least from a planned play call standpoint. So if

(53:50):
we are to believe that Ohio State will limit what
he does with his legs, it's tough. He is a
surefire weapon with him. But if they can limit it,
he is a seventy three percent passer. He is a
six touchdowns, no interception guy. So far, they just haven't
played anybody. Many teams haven't played anybody. But you know what,
what if you're legit and you haven't played anyone. You're

(54:11):
still legit. It's just people don't know it yet because
you haven't played anyone. I lean towards that, but I'm
a big believer. I'm a big believer in Demon Williams.
Washington number one in FBS in third down conversions right now.
So you want to padlock stat look at Demon Williams
on the ground. That's one, and then I think the

(54:31):
second more important is Washington offense third down conversion rate?
What's it looking like, because I mean Ohio State turns
a lot of people's stat profile on its ear. We'll
see if they do that. I mean, remember, look, just
a few weeks ago, there were so many questions about
this Ohio State defense, and then they shut Texas down

(54:52):
and everyone thought the questions were answered. But then people
kept watching Texas saying gross. And you haven't watched Ohio
State again since then because they haven't really played anybody.
So who knows if there may not be some kind
of weakness or some kind of flaw, some kind of
crack exposed by a really good coaching staff up there

(55:13):
at Washington and a really good quarterback at Washington. I
think they need a turnover here. I think Washington probably
needs to be plus in the turnover battle in a
reason to believe, So that's something that probably happens early
in the game. I don't care if it's special teams
or a turnover Demal Williams finds a crease for seventy
three yards and a score. Something needs to happen early.
If it does, then it's game on. And if it does,

(55:35):
then my friends there from Columbus traveling up to the
Great Pacific Northwest get to experience one of the underrated
venues in American sports at full throat and it's nothing
to it's nothing to be trifled with. As Memo would say,
it's still early enough. One thing I want to keep
saying about these big games, it's still early enough in

(55:55):
the season where there are unknowns about these contending teams
that will be exposed. Now they could be revealed, so
that's a positive, or they could be exposed. So I'm
saying this about anybody. Oregon, it could happen, Penn State,
it could happen, Ohio State, it could happen. And the
way it would happen is you just face a different

(56:17):
kind of player, a different collection of talent, a different scheme, etc.
Than you've seen so far. And it just so happens
those guys are the ones built to expose you. Here's
the problem that could just as easily, if not more easily,
happened to Washington. They're sitting there three and zero as well,
you know, so no one's beating them, no one's come
close to them. Now they face Ohio State, so there

(56:39):
could be cracks all in your dam as well. And
it's just that here comes the water pressure for the
first time. Let's take a look at what the model thinks.
We got Ohio State minus eight and a half at
FanDuel right now, and that number dropped a little bit
earlier this week and it came down right to where
the model already is. We got Ohio State minus eight
and a half as well. I think I'm going to
split the difference here. I think Ohio State will go

(57:01):
win this game. I think it's going to be very competitive.
An upset would mildly surprise, but not shot me at all.
I will take Washington plus the points. Anything above eight
we're getting it right now. I'll take Washington plus eight
and a half. They cannot match Ohio State. Man for man.
Most teams can't, but I think there's some unique dynamic
athletes Washington has, namely at the quarterback position. That, along

(57:24):
with home field and an inexperienced Ohio State team really
experiencing that kind of environment for the first time this year,
I think something crazy could happen. At the very least,
I think the home team could cover there. So give
me be Washington plus the points. I do like Ohio
State outright. Though, I appreciate all you guys being tuned
in live. I know you've got a lot to do.

(57:45):
You hear the train horn outside, Yes, that was not
a sound effect that Bradley played. I know a lot
of you have stuff to do on a Tuesday night
in the fall. I appreciate you watching. Make sure you
subscribe to the channel. I do want to tell you.
First off, I plead with you to subscribe. You know
we're on track to hit five hundred k subs before
the end of the year. The question becomes twofold number one,

(58:07):
when will it happen? Number two? How do we celebrate?
I'm open to taking suggestions. How do we celebrate? And
I don't want to count our chickens, but I mean
it's simple math. So it's probably gonna happen. Unless I
suspend myself, it's probably going to happen. Get us there.
Word of mouth works phenomenally. I get dms every day
from you guys, showing me the proof that you have

(58:29):
gotten your mom to subscribe or your cousin Charles to subscribe.
Welcome Mom, Welcome Charles, Welcome all, and if you're new here,
this is the part of the show that will make
the least amount of sense to you. JP pole is
out for week five. I got hard disagreement with my
own model this week. We're not on speaking terms. I
haven't even looked at the screen. So here's the situation.

(58:52):
These are not my rankings, but I'm glad that I
do my rankings. See there it is. There's the helpful
tutorial there. These are not rankings. That is on Thursday.
And I did not use to give out my own
rankings because everyone else does it. But the more and
more I look at the JP polls stray further from God,
the more and more I realize, no, the Commissioner's pole
is needed. I'll put this out and we'll listen to

(59:15):
a solid forty eight hours of moaning and complaining and
in this case is going to be warranted because the
JP Pole is fairly ridiculous this week. And then I'll
put out the best rankings in the land on Thursday,
right as we gear up for a weekend's action. Let's
start at twenty. Okay, let's start at twenty. I took

(59:36):
the suggestions from the podcast crowd. I don't do it
in random order. I do it in true countdown order.
Here Vandy is in the JP Pole. They are at
number twenty. They are up three spots. But here's the
most important part. From a raw power rating standpoint, they
are up seven points from their preseason rating. That's a
huge jump. I mean, Vandy being a legit top twenty

(59:57):
power rating team is a massive deal. So good for them.
Michigan is up six spots. They're at nineteen. That's a
big jump for them. USC's at number eighteen. They go
to Illinois. I will see them in person for the
first time this year, but not the first time ever Saturday.
That was one mistake I made on the show the
other night. I was all excited, Oh man, the Fault

(01:00:20):
o't Lie Tour is headed to Illinois. We're going to
see USC in person. I said, I've never seen a
USC game in person before, and then it was brought
to my attention that three years ago I went out
to the Rose Bowl and saw them beat UCLA fact,
So there you go. USC. It doesn't change their power rating.
They're number eighteen. Eli Drinkwitz has Missouri at number seventeen.

(01:00:43):
They got a quarterback playing phenomenally right now. They are
set up to make a run. I think Missouri is
one of several teams that are normally up. It looked
at as like paper tiger types, kind of pun intended.
It really could be legitimate playoff not just playoff contenders,
but teams that could do something if they make it
this year. I feel the same way about a certain

(01:01:05):
other team that's number twelve. I'll get to them in
a second. Florida State is number sixteen. I don't know.
They're playing Miami this upcoming week though the week after
this upcoming week, so we'll figure a lot out about them.
I am so excited to break that game down next week.
All right, top fifteen, Bradley, Let's go LSU. Very peculiar,

(01:01:27):
very peculiar, LSU. They are down four points in the
power rating from where they were three weeks ago, which
means they are down to number fifteen. Overall, the model
just keeps not buying what LSU selling. It's not that
they don't deserve to be ranked high. I'm going to
have them ranked top five come Thursday when the Commissioner's

(01:01:50):
poll comes out. So they deserve to be ranked top five.
But as for neutral field favorability, and you can take
it or leave it as to what do you care
about that, the model continues to LSU. And here's what
concerns me with that. It started to do that with
South Carolina before South Carolina had lost anything, and then
South Carolina lost, and it's done that with a couple

(01:02:11):
of teams this year, kind of gotten ahead of the
curve and started dropping them even though they were winning,
and then they end up losing. Illinois. It was doing
that with Illinois. So let's just keep that in mind.
Texas Tech is number fourteen, and there is now a
gap forming in the Big twelve. There is a I
think we have a four point separation, which is a

(01:02:31):
pretty big gap between Texas Tech and the next closest
team in the Big twelve. So that is noteworthy because
that is not normal for that conference. A and M
is thirteen. Look at Indiana. They're up ten spots this week.
They're number twelve. They are up a touchdown in their
overall raw power rating from week one. I cannot stress

(01:02:54):
this as strong enough terms. We never took Indiana seriously
as a team that could do damage if they made
the playoffs. Last year. We thought they deserve to be
in the playoff. They were never winning a game once
they got in. This is a different team. This Indiana
team is fully capable of not only making the playoff,
they are fully capable of winning games in the playoff.
I firmly believe that they are every bit a legit

(01:03:18):
contender this year. Tennessee's at number eleven. Excited to see
Tennessee on the road in Startville this weekend. That is
a big matchup, That's not an easy game for them.
Top ten Oklahoma's at number ten. Of course, yes, I
saw the news today. They have lost John Matteer for
several weeks. Starting quarterback. Injured the hand against Auburn. He

(01:03:41):
is going to miss. They got a bye week this week,
right then they got the Kent State game, then they
got Texas. My guess is he misses the Texas game,
but I know there's a lot of hope that maybe
he's back by the time they played Texas. Anyway, forget
about that for a second. Oklahoma's power rating here at
number ten is with John Matti, so without him, which

(01:04:03):
would be temporary, we would adjust that they may not
be top twenty five without him, So fingers crossed he's
back soon. Ole Miss is up four spots at number nine.
The model's been notoriously anti Old Miss in the past,
so this is noteworthy models getting higher and higher on
Old Miss. Notre dame at number eight again, I know
they're a multi loss team. You either understand what we're

(01:04:25):
doing here or you don't. They would be favored over
most teams in the country, including many undefeated teams. Josh,
why even play the games so we can determine winners?
But look, you got him at number eight. It doesn't
look like you care who wins. No, in this, I
don't care who wins. I care who would be favored
the Commissioner's pull on Thursday, I care who wins. Miami's
number seven. Does that seem low to you, especially when

(01:04:47):
Texas is sitting number six? Miami against Texas right now.
If you think I'm taking Texas over Miami on a
neutral field drugs, and yet the model is sitting here
trying to sell me on the fact that everything's right
in Austin again because Arch Manning flexed on some poor
dB there's going to be bagging groceries three weeks from now.
All it's good. We just bumped Texas up. Would we

(01:05:08):
bump them up five spots? We didn't do anything. I
got nothing to do with this. Texas does not belong
number six. But here's what's in play. This thing heavily
factors in talent. Heavily factors in talent, because nine times
out of ten, that's what should be factored in when
it comes to a power rating. When they're formulating spreads
over at FanDuel, I promise you they're heavily baking in

(01:05:30):
talent profiles. Well, that matters unless your performance level is
not matching your talent rating. And if it's not, then
there's a lot of money to be made betting against
that kind of team. I say all that to say, Texas,
even in power ratings, should not be number six right now.
But they are. Shame on you, Shame on the model.

(01:05:54):
Not shame on me. Couldn't be me, Shame on the model?
All right? Top five. Penn State's number five, they play
number two Oregon this week. Bama's number four. They play
number three Georgia this week. Ohio State's number one. They
play at Washington this week. There's a lot of probably
question as there was last week about Bama. Bama number four,

(01:06:17):
How could that be? Bama got embarrassed by Florida State
week one. I know, I watched the game. What's your point, Well,
the point is they shouldn't be number four? Why not? Well,
I mean, what are you trying to say? Put them
number four? I'm saying they'd be favored over everybody beneath them.
That's what I'm saying on a neutral field. Well, where's
the proof of that? The proof is right there on

(01:06:38):
the board this week. Did you notice what that spread
is against Georgia. Bama at Georgia Georgia minus two and
a half. The implication there is on a neutral field,
that's a Pickham game, or maybe even Alabama slightly favored.
So you can debate this, but you're debating against a wall.
The evidence is already there. If Bama was what you

(01:07:00):
think they should be. That'd be like a nine point
dog on the road this week at Georgia, they're not.
They're not, So that doesn't mean they're gonna win anything.
In fact, I picked Georgia to win and cover. So
what I think is gonna happen is completely independent, as
is what you think will happen relative to what the
number would be. That's all we're trying to do here,

(01:07:21):
that's it. We're trying to help the world. We're not
trying to cause more chaos. That's not what we need.
We're trying to bring people together with the j people,
although I would argue Texas at number six is no
way to bring America together, no way to bring America together.
And you know what else, I don't know what in
the world happened when Texas came to the SEC. But

(01:07:43):
not only do they get coddled by the model, also
every single legit quarterback gets buzz sawed before they face Texas.
What we got Lagway in a boot, so they're not
gonna face him in a couple of weeks. In all likelihood,
Matier may be out, so they may not face him.
Last year they avoided Lagway in Austin. I don't know

(01:08:04):
what happened when they came to the SEC. I don't know,
but yeah, the model loves Texas. Loves Texas. You can
love Texas too, go to FanDuel. Who knows, Maybe you
agree with the model. I know a lot of my
friends in Austin do no. Actually, some of them even
tell me the models a little high on them right now.
But nevertheless, I got news for you. You ever heard

(01:08:26):
of boost Fest, Well, it's happening at FanDuel the twenty
fifth through the twenty eighth, So that is basically this weekend.
Here's how boost Fest works. There's just a bunch of
profit boosts all over the place. Ryder Cup is coming up.
We got college football, we got the NFL. You just
need to look around once you peruse FanDuel and look

(01:08:47):
at which games have profit boost tokens on them. What
that means for the unwashed is you bet money on
a game and then you just win a whole lot
more than you normally would have if your bet hits.
It's a beautiful thing, profit boost erful thing. Now, in
the interest of getting you money, I want to tell
you that I'm about to get you some money. So, Jesse,

(01:09:09):
are we good? In the description? By the way, we
are good? Okay, all right. You can look in the
description if you're on YouTube right now, or you can
just look in the chat. There's a link there. You
don't have to do anything at that link, but if
you want to give us your information there and you
have a fan duel account, I'm giving ten of you
one hundred dollars in bonus bets tonight because I went

(01:09:32):
to FanDuel and said I need to give away some money,
and they said, okay, well, how's a thousand. I said,
it's a good start. It's a good start. I think
we can do better down the rope. It's a good start.
So there it is. It's in the right there, I
see it. It's penned. So you can click that link.
There's a link in the description. It pays to watch
the show live, obviously, just click it, enter your info

(01:09:53):
or don't. But if you do enter your info, I'm
going to pick ten of you and we're going to
give you one hundred dollars in bonus bets.

Speaker 2 (01:10:00):
Must be twenty one plus and present in select states
for Kansas, in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or eighteen
plus and present in DC. First online real money wager
only five dollars first deposit required. Bonus issued as non
withthrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions
apply see terms at sportsbook dot FanDuel dot com. Gambling
problem call one eight hundred gambler, or visit FanDuel dot

(01:10:21):
com slash RG call one eight eight eight seven eight
nine seventy seven seventy seven, or visit CCPG dot org
slash chat in Connecticut, or visit nd gamblinghelp dot org
in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gambling Helplinema dot org
or call eight hundred three two seven fifty fifty for
twenty four seven support in Massachusetts or call one eight
seven seven eight Hope, n y or text Hope and

(01:10:43):
Why in New York.

Speaker 1 (01:10:44):
We'll announce that on Thursday. I think we'll announce on Thursday.
But what I'm about to announce here before I end
this show is I've got two more best bets aboard
the Ramanoodle Express. So the games were already on. To
remind you from the other night, Mississippi state plus nine
and a half. That's not shocking Rise plus fourteen and
a half is utterly shocking. We have gone from frankly

(01:11:04):
hating on food and rejecting food to betting on food
because a lot of people are losing the food these days.
And they're playing Navy. They're fourteen and a half point dogs.
But you know what, Rice has been a double digit
dog and pulled the outright upset already this year. So
I'm not ready to order the Rice T shirt yet.
Don't send me that thing yet, but if you beat Navy,
absolutely send it. Okay, We are going to bet on

(01:11:27):
Hawaii for the first time, and I don't know how
long Hawaii is getting six and a half. We are
betting against every service academy this week. I feel so
un American. Hawaii plus six and a half against Air
Force and Ole Miss is going to be a best
bet and we're not even getting the best of line
value here. But I think Old Miss is gonna win

(01:11:47):
that thing by a field goal, or more so Ole
Miss minus one and a half, Hawaii plus six and
a half, Rice plus fourteen and a half, Mississippi State
plus nine and a half. Rama Noudle Express is already
a winner this shar year. Now we want to stretch
the margins, and that's what we'll look to do this weekend.
We'll be back Thursday. Remember the Thursday show now starts
at seven eastern sixth Central, mainly to appease Kublicks travel schedule. Also,

(01:12:12):
I'm told the NFL does something in the way of
a game on Thursday night, So we'll do the show
Thursday night, and it is going to be loaded week.
We haven't even gotten to all the games yet, so
we'll get to more games Thursday. Subscribe and tell five
of your friends to do the same, because truthfully, I'd
like to be at five hundred K by Thanksgiving. Just
get it out of the way before December even starts.

(01:12:33):
There you go, that's our goal for director Bradley, Producer Jesse.
I'm Josh Paate. Take care. We'll see you back here
same time Thursday night, except an hour earlier until then,
God Bless.

Speaker 2 (01:12:56):
Must be twenty one plus and present in select states
for Kansas in a fifiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or
eighteen plus and present in DC first online real money
wager only five dollars first deposit required. Bonus issued as
non withdrawable bonus bets, which expire seven days after receipt.
Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook dot FanDuel dot com.
Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler, or visit FanDuel

(01:13:18):
dot com slash RG call one eight eight eight seven
eight nine seventy seven seventy seven, or visit CCPG dot
org slash chat in Connecticut, or visit nd gamblinghelp dot
org in Maryland. Hope is here, Visit gambling Helpline M
dot org, or call eight hundred three two seven fifty
fifty for twenty four seven support in Massachusetts, or call
one eight seven seven eight Hope n Y. Or text

(01:13:39):
Hope NY in New York