Week 6 Predictions - Miami vs FSU & Vandy vs Alabama + New JP Poll

College Football week 6 predictions are here. Miami vs FSU features a rivalry returning to vintage form as Mario Cristobal and the Canes face Mike Norvell’s Seminoles in must-win mode. What about Vanderbilt vs Alabama being a top 20 matchup with Kalen DeBoer and the Tide coming off a big win against UGA? We also look at Texas vs Florida. Can Billy Napier save his job or will Steve Sarkisian see Arch Manning and the offense start rolling? The latest edition of the JP Poll is out with plenty of movement. Where are LSU and Ole Miss? Did Alabama validate their top 5 rating? What about Texas and Oklahoma? We also look at Oregon and Ohio State after big wins. What are Penn State fans feeling about James Franklin? What has the Transfer Portal done to College Football this year? All that plus best bets on the Ramen Noodle Express.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:14):
Always wondered what me mom meant when she said the
longer you put off the truth, the truer the truth becomes.
But I really just think she was talking about college
football because think about this. So we've seen some teams
get upset, We've seen some surprising results. We've seen some
players underperform, overperform, and then we've seen others that will
end up doing the same thing. They just haven't been

(00:35):
put through the meat grinder yet, and they are. Some
as early as this weekend were jam packed hiatapa splendid
downtown Nashville, Tennessee. On this Tuesday night, September thirtieth, the
year of Our Lord, twenty twenty five. Yes, friends, that
is Tuesday night. It is prediction night around here. Whom
stood offunkt. The Vanderbilt Commodores are playing in a game

(00:57):
that has attracted College Game Day, and not for some
novelty reason, not like the time they went to Amherst.
You know, this is the real deal. This is a
top twenty match up at Alabama. We'll do that one.
We'll do miamifsu will do Texas Florida. You know, is
there really a whole lot of difference between those teams.
The model says yes, but the model again favors Texas

(01:18):
against the Ravens against the Chiefs against the Bills. So
we'll see. We have to do a very very rare
September late September mood update, mood tracker type situation for
our friends in State College, including one out in the
production truck right now. Yea, the closest the producer Jesse
has ever come to just flat out being featured on

(01:39):
the show is tonight and not a moment too soon.
Thousands upon thousands of dollars from the Pate State Endowment
have gone to Jesse's therapy over the past seventy two
hours or so. It's tough. It's tough around Penn State circles.
So we got that, got some really mind boggling facts
about the transfer. I got some best bets. We got

(02:01):
a whole bunch of stuff. We're jam packed, and they're
watching us in San Angelo, Texas, and Lawrence, Kansas, in
Salt Lake City, Utah, and Blue Ridge, Georgia, and wherever
you're watching and listening. Listen. I got our data report today.
Our numbers insane, So thank you. I'm not begging you anything.
I'm not asking you to contribute a dime. All I'm
asking you to do is subscribe to the channel. About

(02:24):
fifty percent of our viewership is still unsubscribed. I'm told
I've got it on good authority that some of you
think you're subscribed and you're not. It doesn't cost anything,
it doesn't sign you up for anything, It doesn't even
matter to you. It just helps us. So check on
YouTube or pod see if you're subscribed. If you're not,
click it. That's it. Then go get your mom's phone
and do it for her, and your sister's phone and
do it for her, and all's well. That ends well,

(02:45):
it doesn't matter, it doesn't hurt them, and what they
don't know can't hurt them. So let's dive into the
show tonight. Looking forward to this, been looking forward to
this show since the last show Miami, Florida State Saturday night,
seven thirty Eastern on ABC. This is amazing, and I
think it's being overlooked a little bit. Some people are

(03:05):
missing it badly. Here this game presented by Quick Trip.
We are going to the game. We will be there.
We will be on the sideline, freshly renovated venue down there,
but still with the mystique of a legendary venue that
has hosted iconic matchups between these teams. See when I
was a youth rolling around Georgia, and even though I

(03:25):
was in Columbus, there was a huge contingent of Florida
State fans. I myself wore a Florida State starter jacket
to school once upon a time. Why well, not because
my dad played there or my mom went there or anything.
It was because of Bobby Bowden. It was because of
what they were doing. When I was a little kid.
It was a big deal, man. I mean, Florida State

(03:46):
football was kind of infectious. It kind of took over
the South even when Canel played there. I mean, think
about all they had going against them with that, and
people still liked them, and I did too. And then
the rival re waned and it hasn't mattered nationally a
whole lot. And I this was tracking to be this
huge blow up game, and then FSU lost to Virginia

(04:08):
Friday night. I feel like a lot of the luster
was lost on the game. And I have no idea why.
I have no idea whatsoever why this is gonna be
a knockdown, drag out. You're thinking to yourself up. Florida
State got exposed. Miami's gonna roll. Guys. The line's four
and a half on the game if Aduel Miami minus
four and a half. So we still don't know what

(04:29):
we don't know, And what I mean is we're heading
into what week six? Now, I think Miami hasn't left
home really yet. Miami is in a situation where there
are parts of them we don't know about Florida State,
there are parts of them we found out about, but
now they get to answer for it. We just saw
Bama go beat Georgia on the road a few weeks

(04:50):
after we saw them get exposed on the road. So
that just goes to show you in college football the
only constant is change, and the hallmark of the best
teams is especially when they get knocked down, they are
all the more incentivized to continue to look for answers
and sometimes they find them. And you know what, Florida
State just lost a game against Virginia. What if wild

(05:11):
theory as we start the prediction here, what if they
change some things up, What if they learn some things.
What if taste in that blood of their own, what
if that does something to the fighting spirit, the competitive
character of that team. Well, strength on strength here, that's
how I see this game. Florida State has to run

(05:31):
it and stay committed to it. You are not gonna
gash Miami. A whole lot just not gonna happen. Even
as I'm saying that's one of the keys to this game,
I'm not counting on Florida State running up and down
the field. This is the number two rushing offense in
the country. That's true, So well, why don't you expect
them to run up and down the field. Because Miami's
got a top ten run d it's ranked number eight.

(05:52):
It's better than number eight. There are not seven rush
defenses in the country better than Miami. Because Miami's already
seen Florida and seen Notre Dame and even USF like,
that's all baked into Miami's stack profile. Whereas some of
you have played glorified high school teams, so you patted
your stats a little bit. Florida State hasn't faced the
top fifty run defense yet, so they've stacked up a
lot of really good, you know, numeric games. I haven't

(06:13):
seen them go against this. Here's the big question. The
big question is do we look at the crowbar theory
being a possibility here, meaning you face such a better
front than you have that you can't scale accordingly. Yeah,
am I concerned about that? Yeah, I'm concerned about that
a little bit. However, you know, I look at the
unique challenge that maybe a Gusmuson composed to you. I

(06:37):
look at the use of tempo here more than Miami's
probably seen from anyone that could competitively match them talent wise,
like FSU can, like USF couldn't do that even on
their best day. They couldn't do that. And Florida runs
one play about every two or three minutes. So I
wasn't counting on it there either. They just got to
scale this against Miami, and they have to because if

(07:00):
they don't, everything about Tommy Castellanos becomes kind of a
moot point. So Florida state right now six point seven
yards per rush. That's really good. Okay, I'll take like
four and three quarter, I'll take five. That's fine. I
can win with that. Miami, though, twenty one percent of
the runs against that defense have gone for zero yards

(07:22):
or less. That's one out of every five times you
run against them, you're getting tackled at or behind the
line of scrimmage. So I'm concerned about it because if
they can't, If Florida State cannot move the ball at
least to a minimum baseline of effectiveness, then it really
doesn't matter what else happens. The only way at that

(07:44):
point they're winning that is special teams or a bunch
of turnovers that they force, because what I don't think
they're equipped to do is win throwing the ball. And
the reason I say that is I look at Tommy
Castellanos throughout his career. When he throws for two hundred
and forty yards or more, his teams are one in five.
It's kind of counterintuitive. You would think the more passing yardage,

(08:04):
the better they do. No, the more passing yardage it
normally means a little bit more desperation, but it also
makes you really, really prone to bad decisions. And they're
good athletes, good athletes, new additions, and good athletes in
this Miami secondary. So they either do that or they
bust explosives. What I don't see. So what I say

(08:25):
when that, when I say what I mean when I
say that is they either sustain a ground game or
they bust some really big explosive like touchdown type pass plays.
It's unlikely in the run game that they bust a
bunch of explosives. It's more likely in the past game.
Florida State is second in the country and passes of

(08:46):
thirty plus yards and forty plus yards. Miami's secondary has
been tested, but it's been tested a little differently here,
and I just wonder, Okay, there's still enough newness, there's
still enough intrigue and miss I haven't watched that team
go on the road, really, I haven't watched those new
pieces in that secondary get tested the unique way that

(09:07):
Malsan's offense can test them. Maybe just maybe there's some
leaks that get sprung there. So those are really the
two ways that Florida State scores here. I don't think
the intermediate pass game is going to be all that
much of a threat here. I don't think that they're
going to sustain these ten and twelve and thirteen play
drives like what Bama didding is Georgia last week is
not what Florida State's gonna do if they're going to
win this, all right, So that's the FSU side. On

(09:29):
the Miami side kind of more simple. They just ask
a basic question to tail as old as time. It's
a question as old as time, are you man enough?
Not the Sheryl Crow song, which is are you strong
enough to be my man? That will not be asked
in the Miami Florida State game Saturday night or things

(09:50):
have gone horribly arrived. But what could be asked and
what will have to be answered by Florida State is
are you man enough? Are you tough enough? Can you
stand up to the challenge? However you want to fill
that blank because that offensive line is built to travel,
Those tailbacks are built to travel, and you gotta play
them honest because if you don't, you got a quarterback
at Miami that can beat you. You got good receiving

(10:12):
options that can beat you. Virginia ran for two hundred
plus on Florida State. Something's got to change there because
you gotta at least make Miami open up the playbook
a little bit. You can't just let them lean on you.
You can't get to the end of the first quarter
and have us all collectively realizing, oh wow, if they

(10:33):
can do that, they don't even need to do this, this,
and this. Even though they can do this this and
this FSU's key player here. It's not a mystery. If
we were projecting this game in July, we would have said,
Douche Robinson, that's the guy they're gonna have to have shine.
He's got more catches in yards than their next three

(10:53):
receiving options combined, I think right now, and confirmed via
the graphic there. So that's the FSU side. What about
Carson Beck, though we made it, I've almost eight or
nine minutes into this haven't really mentioned Carson Beck. Well,
he's there, he's there. I just wonder, you know, he's
thrown three picks so far this year. It concerns me

(11:17):
a little bit. Yeah, it's again, Carson Beck's played a
lot of football, so I don't think the environment's gonna
rattle him all that much. But what could happen is
maybe somehow, some way, Florida State schematically takes Miami's fastball
away from him. And that doesn't mean Miami's gonna get
stuffed running the ball, but maybe you know you want

(11:38):
five plus yards per carry, maybe it's three point seven
yards per carry, and it forces enough third and seven pluses,
and it forces Carson Beck to do just enough with
a group of wide receivers that are still new in
a hostile environment, all working together for the first time,
that you do force some turnovers. I'm cautious of that.
I'm cautious of the road. I'm always cautious in college

(11:58):
football when a team has not gone on the road yet.
I'm always cautious about that. I am cautious about the
Carson Beck turnover factor. I'm just cautious that this Florida
State offense is going to stress Miami defensively in a
way that they haven't been stressed yet. It's just a
lot of firsts. Okay, Miami could go in there and
win thirty eight to ten for all I know, And

(12:19):
I'll show you what the model thinks about this in
the second. But also remember, from an intangible standpoint, we've
already seen this happen multiple times in college football. This year.
We watched a desperate Bama team must win mode, go
on the road and get a win. Last week, we
watched Illinois, who had just been body bagged the week before,
come home and get a straight up win against Southern

(12:41):
cal and a game that really wasn't even as close
as the final score indicated. And what was the common
theme there, and that's not an exhaustive list, by the way,
what were the common themes? Desperation, desperate, talented teams at home,
no less tend to put forth really inspired performs. Am
I cautious of all that? Am I aware of all that? Yes?

(13:04):
I am. Let's take a look at what the model
thinks FanDuel right now, this number's fallen throughout the week.
It's sitting at Miami minus four and a half. Right now,
our model agrees totally. We've had it at Miami minus four.
The FanDuel number kind of came down to where the
model already was. I gotta be real with you. I
have no strong feel on this game. I think Miami

(13:27):
is a very good team. I think they may be
the best team I've seen so far this year. I
am going to slightly pick them to win and cover.
I'm not going to do you the favorite to win
and the underdog to cover. With a number that small,
there is zero shock with me if Florida State wins
this game, zero shot. It almost feels like it's too

(13:49):
easily laid out for Miami right now. Everyone's anointed them,
including me, at least in terms of being really good.
Like I've had them ranked number one, and it almost
feels like every year in college football you get this
team and you start to start to look at hell,
look at their schedule. Man, once they can get past
this one, well what if they don't get past it.
It's not the end of the world if they don't,

(14:10):
by the way, but what if they don't. It just
never works out that clean. But you know what, I
do think they have enough edges. I think they have
more ways to win this game than Florida State. It
doesn't matter if the one way Florida State can win it,
they do. But I'll take Miami to win and cover. Buddy,
I've got no confidence, no confidence in that game, but
I'm confident I'll be there right there on the sideline.

(14:33):
I'm mistakenly a couple of years ago called it Doke
Walker Stadium, remember that, Jesse, and it was an accident.
I know it's dope Campbell, but we got lit up.
So anytime I'm talking about a home game at Florida State,
where I have not been for a game since twenty sixteen,
mind you, I'm always careful I don't mess up the
name Quick Trip though, because they fuel the fall. Don't

(14:54):
lie to her. And we are headed in week six
to Tallahassee, Florida. We'll be down there for that. When
the last time I was there, I was just talking
to someone about this today. The last time I was
at a game at Florida State was Deshaun Watson and
Clemson came in there in twenty sixteen and it was
a night game. Jimbo was there, Dabo Jimbo, and I

(15:15):
think it was like thirty five to thirty one something
like that was the final score. But I remember thinking
to myself, Okay, Deshaun Watson and Clemson, they're gonna do
it again, because I thought, for all the world that
was Florida State's game. And sure enough, they came back
and won on the road. And I just remember thinking
to myself, this place seems insane. I cannot believe someone
just came in here and got to win. That's the

(15:38):
way they talked about Week one this year. Remember, kids,
it was what a little over a month ago, maybe
like a month ago. You remember how loud that place was.
You remember how people came out of there talking about
how big a perfect storm it was. And Bama got
rattled and they didn't know what to do. Well, if
you did it against Bama, could you do it against Miami?

(15:59):
Line is four four and a half. For anyone thinking
this is one, you can just overlook. The line is
four and a half. We'll be there thanks to quick trip.
Next up, Oh, there's something about prediction Tuesday, something about it.

(16:19):
Vandy is at Alabama Saturday, three thirty eastern two thirty
Central time, kickoff on ABC. This was the biggest shocker
of a result in all of twenty twenty four point
spread was I think twenty two and a half. Yes,
there were bigger point spread upsets last year. I don't
know how you feel about it, and felt about it.

(16:41):
This was the most shocking outcome that I remember last year.
Just remember it's kind of similar to this year. Alabama
had just beaten Georgia at home. They're going on the
road to take on Vandy and they lose outright, just
a stunner. And I remember that I was at a
Texas A and m Missouri, which was a blowout, and

(17:01):
I'm flying home as that game's taking place, and I
feel like an idiot because I flew all the way
to Texas to watch Missouri get splattered when I could
have just walked to the Vanderbilt game. Literally, I could
have walked from my apartment and seen the outcome of
the year, the stunner of the year, and then they
took the goal post down Broadway. This really happened. We

(17:24):
could see it. If I were in our studio at
the time, I could have looked down on the street
and watched the goalpost get taken to the Cumberland River.
But nope, I had to go to college station. We
had a fun time that weekend. But yeah, game days
in town for this, everyone's attention is on it. Vanderbilt,
for the first time in my lifetime, has the full

(17:45):
attention of a program like the University of Alabama. Like
everyone's paying attention to the game. I don't know if
you're new to college football if that really clicks with you,
But if you've been around for a while, you know,
if you're like twenty five or older and you've got
a sense of his about the game. For Vanderbilt to
have Alabama and the country's full attention in a matchup
like this is amazing. For that matter, for Vandy to

(18:08):
be in Tuscaloosa and only be a ten and a
half point dog is also a really, really big deal.
But they don't want to cover. They want to win,
so let's talk about it. The question is, obviously, can
Vandy pull it off again. Let me give you a
few reasons to suggest yes they can. Last year, they
ran the ball on Bama. They have a top twenty

(18:29):
rush offense. This year. Bama currently sits ninetieth in run defense.
Bama's face some decent teams running the ball. Yeah, okay,
Vandy can run it. They got that quarterback that can
run it. They got some horses. They can run the ball.
Number two reason. Last year's game featured a forty two
minute to eighteen minute time of possession advantage lean Vanderbilt.

(18:53):
Vandy is once again a top twenty team in the
country in time of possession. Thirdly, Vandy is fourth in
third down conversions in the country this year. You remember
this game last year, they were twelve of eighteen on
third down and one of one on fourth down. Bama
couldn't get the ball. They never had the ball, and
when they did they turned it over. They lost the
turnover battle as well. So there are certainly carryover elements

(19:17):
of Vanderbilt. Same stuff you saw last year, you've seen
this year. Here's why it could be different. Alabama is
one of three teams in FBS with no turnovers. They
have not given the ball away. And that's not some fluke.
It's never a fluke when you get five or six
weeks in and you haven't turned the ball over. But
if you listen to them, even in fall camp, well
was the one thing that Ryan Grubb and that coaching

(19:38):
staff kept saying about ty Simpson. He doesn't turn the
ball over. He's protected the football. They kept talking about
how all throughout fall camp we've turned it over like
two or three times or whatever. Well, that's tracked, that's
carried over, so we've got that. But you know, even
though they aren't running the ball great, there's still thirteenth
in the country on third down conversion. That last game

(20:01):
really helped that stat uptick. They're thirtieth in the country
in time of possession, which is weird because you would
think to control those metrics to thrive in those categories.
If you're Alabama, you got to be able to run
the ball. But they're running numbers rushing yards per game.
They're one hundred and eighth in the country. I don't
know what else to tell you. If you watched the
Georgia game, I think you saw what we talked about.

(20:23):
Cubert came on the show last Thursday, talked a lot
about extensions of the run game, how they accomplish what
the equivalent of rush yardage would be. They just don't
do it the same way a Nick Saban team would
have done it, the same way a Kirby Smart team
tries to do it. Now, do you have to be
a little bit more efficient? Is it a little bit
higher skill level and more people require and more time

(20:45):
invested required to accomplish that. Yeah, but when it works,
it works, and it's worked for him so far. There
are much more consistent offense. I think ty Simpson's making
the right decisions and because of that, that doesn't immunize
you from getting beat. What it does mean is the
other guy's got to beat you. I don't mean that disrespectfully.
I don't mean they handed a game to Vanderboot last year,

(21:06):
But to say that they came up here fully prepared
I think would be alive. To say they focused on
Vanderbolt last year, I think would be a lie. So
how does Vandy beat an Alabama team who's full attention
they have. Well, I think it really comes down to
Vandy's secondary. How goodable are they through the air, because
they hadn't faced a top passing attack at all. The

(21:28):
statistics say they hadn't faced the top fifty passing attack,
and I think that really tracks like the closest you know,
theoretically they may have come is face in South Carolina.
Again theoretically, but Sellers was out most of that game,
so they didn't really get anyone. And now, by far,
they'll face the best quarterback they faced all year. They
won't face a better stable of receivers than this all year.
So what Alabama's got to try and do here is

(21:50):
just flip the game script. All the stuff they did
to you last year. You flip it by converting on
third down, by doing what you did agains Joe Orgia
last week. I mean, it was Bama that dominated time
of possession, it was Bama that dominated third down. Well,
if you come close, just remotely close to knocking down
the dominoes you did against Georgia last week, you will

(22:10):
have flipped the Vanderbilt game script from last year. And
I don't think anyone looks at it and says Alabama's
got to be utterly dominant. They don't have to go
scorch st Earth here. You just can't implode in those categories.
The other theory that I'm working off of is the
FSU loss kind of changed Alabama. I was just talking

(22:32):
at Chris low legend of the business. Chris Lowe is
in the building tonight and he's like probably twenty feet
away from me right now. We were just talking before
the show. Hey, it's pretty obvious the Florida State lost
triggered something in Alabama as a program. But if you
get granular, I'd love to know did Tommy Castellanos's performance

(22:54):
in that Florida State game in Week one trigger something
in Cane Womack and that defense. We can't know until Saturday.
We can't know. But mobility at the quarterback position has
given them fits. It gave him fits in Week one.
Sure enough, here comes Diego Pavia rolling into town. Last year,
he was sixteen of twenty through the air for two
hundred and fifty two yards two touchdowns. But he also

(23:16):
ran the ball twenty times for fifty six yards. But
a lot of his mobility just ate them up. A
lot of his mobility then opened up lanes and gap integrity.
I cannot tell you how many times I heard those
words in the pejorative context the week after Alabama played Vanderbilt.
So how much did they learn? How much did Tommy

(23:37):
Castellanos doing what he did to them in week one
wake them up? Just from a defensive standpoint, What kind
of adjustments are made? What kind of adjustments can they make?
They're missing James Smith the first half of this game.
Kway Russau got hurt last week, so they're not one
hundred percent defensively. No one is that concludes them though,
so can Vandy pull it off again? Let's take a

(23:58):
look at what the model thinks. FanDuel number has come down.
This was at one time I think Bama minus thirteen
and a half. We got it at twelve and a
half the other night when we were doing the Sunday Show,
That's what it was at. It's at Bama minus ten
and a half. Now we still think the numbers should
be lower. Our model has Bama minus nine. We took

(24:19):
Vandy at twelve and a half as one of our
best bets of the weekend. I just flat out think
they're a good enough team to hang with Alabama. They
got a puncher's chance of beating Alabama. They will be
within reach. And I also go back to this, Okay,
I know if you're a Bama fan, you think to yourself,
we just beat Georgia and you did and that's wonderful.
Think about the Kaylin de boor profile, the team profile.

(24:43):
What's his best team been. His best team's been Washington
and that Washington year where they went all the way
to the title game. I remember that year number one,
cause I kept picking against them and being proven wrongs
like a pie in the face every weekend. But the
other thing I remember is how many one possession games
they played. You know, even in his best year, the
wins are close wins, they don't they didn't blow many

(25:06):
people out. And so I think about this game. I
think Alabama will win the game. That's my pick. I
think Alabama will win the game. But pulling away from
Vanderbilt is not going to be easy. And I'll tell
you this. I was looking at our power ratings a
little while ago, just in terms of raw power rating,
strip away the Vanderbilt logo. They compare very favorably to Michigan.

(25:28):
Right now, if Michigan were coming to Tuscaloos a Saturday,
you would still think you're gonna win, but a lot
more of the country would be taking them seriously. They'd
be taking the matchup seriously. That's how seriously you should
be taking this. That's the caliber of team that Vanderbilt
is right now. Michigan USC was another one that was
right there. Again, these are not teams you think are

(25:48):
as good as Alabama. I don't think they're as good
as Bama, but you would take the threat seriously, take
this threat very seriously. We were taking Vandy to cover.
That's actually one of our best bets of the week.
But I am taking Alabama to win, So I think
it's right there in that six eight nine kind of
point range. Let us move on. Did I bring yo?

(26:11):
Brought the chapstick, no free shout outs, but forgot to
put it on before the show. We've got a game
this Saturday in the Swamp that I swore would be
one of the games of the year back in the summer,
and it's Texas and Florida. Both of them are coming
off of bye. It is a Saturday, three thirty Eastern
timekick on ESPN and it's not a Game of the

(26:34):
Year candidate. I haven't even heard many people talking about it.
It's a shame. It's a shame. It's a shame Texas
is favored by six and a half. Here. DJ Lagway
was quoted earlier in the week is saying, eventually this
offense is gonna pop, and when it does, look out,
And I assume he means in twenty twenty five, but
I don't know. It couldn't mean anything at this point. Look,

(26:57):
if your offense is gonna pop at some point this year,
Texas is gonna pop at some point this year. So
who knows. They're both coming out of their by it.
Maybe both offenses pop. Unlikely since the totals forty one
and a half in the game. Unlikely since we have
the number one hundred and three and the number one
hundred and twenty three offenses in terms of third down
conversion percentage. But hey, hey, the past is the past

(27:21):
and the future is now. So this is a hopeful
paper pop. Okay, Frankly, I don't have much to go on,
but I'm hoping some things change for Florida coming out
of the bye week. There are one hundred and sixth
and explosive pass rate right now, So I think they
got to take multiple shots in this game. Is it
a high percentage chance, No, it's not. But if you

(27:42):
don't convert them, you got a no percentage chance of
winning this game. But it doesn't happen without a couple
of things. Because I remember, just like you do, the
five turnover game against LSU. So it seems weird. I'm
sitting here calling for DJ Lagway to throw. You can't not,
but what you can do, this is the prerequisite to

(28:03):
taking your deep shot. Says, you got to fully commit
to the run. Much like FSU. You're gonna run into
a brick wall many many times, but you got to
stay committed to it. Right now, you're sitting at five
point nine yards per carry. Well, Jaden ball is And
yet I watched the LSU game and he carried it
ten times. And I watched the Miami game and he

(28:24):
carried it twelve times. These are not blowout games. These
are very close games, and they're just not giving him
the ball. I have no idea why, And I don't
question play calling, and I won't question individual play calling
even in that sense, I will question philosophy. Why why
did you think it gave you a better shot? For
DJ Lagway to throw that many times against LSU A
team also incapable of pulling away because they can't run

(28:46):
the ball, when you could have run the ball yourself
and controlled a lot more of the game. So one
of the things that I always have in consideration when
a team season has gone bad, especially when they have
a bye week, is they have very little incentive to
keep doing what they've been doing. Now, that's no guarantee
that the changes they make will work, but they will

(29:08):
make changes, so I certainly think they'll commit more to
the ground game. Here. You got to flip third down,
and it helps a lot more when it's third and short.
But Florida right now one hundred and twenty third and
third down conversion percentage And Keith Nieber over at Gators Online,
part of the on three network there, Keith Nieber put
out the stat earlier today over there, and it's troubling.

(29:29):
There's no other word to describe it. It's troubling. Florida
one of nineteen on third down of nine plus You
just you think in your head, at some point you
accidentally convert a couple of them. You got good athletes
at some point. Just you accidentally make a play a
couple of times. Nope, one of nineteen on third and

(29:49):
nine plus. So run the ball, get yourself in favorable
third down situations, and just remember you got really good players.
You're supposed to have a really good offensive line. Third
down is the pre padlock stat Here, I'm gonna say
it for a third time here, I'll I'll pop the
paper for real this time. This could be a historically,

(30:12):
it's like a historical slog fest, I guess would be
the best way to describe it. If neither of these
offenses come out of their shell, neither third down conversion
team is in the one hundreds, a top one hundred,
Like they're both in the one hundreds in third down
conversion percentage. It's a stack category so rare. I don't
even know how it's supposed to come out of the mouth.
I don't even know how I'm supposed to say that
Texas may just take over with pass rush. That's the

(30:33):
thing about Texas. It's what's gotten them by so far.
Even when all the rest of this stuff fails them,
they can just go harass the quarterback all day. And
if they do then we don't need the Arch Breakout
Tour to launch in Gainesville, Florida. It can wait, but
just something to consider here. This is the part where
you still don't know what You don't know what would

(30:55):
Florida be if they had played Texas's schedule, because I'm
arguing they would have Texas's exact record. I don't know
what Texas would be with Florida's schedule, but I think
if I changed nothing about Florida, but I just gave
them Texas a schedule, Florida would have gone to Ohio State,
probably lost, and then they would have beat San Jose

(31:15):
State and UTAP and Sam Houston. I think, okay, don't
throw USF at me. USF would also be a double
digit favorite against all these teams Texas played. And my
point there is maybe at net scenario, Florida is still bad.
It's just been masked. And okay, I'll grant you that.
But my follow up is, what if that's Texas? What

(31:36):
if they're not all that different? I think they are.
There's a reason Texas is still nearly a touchdown favorite
on the road here. I think they are. I think
a lot of things I thought Illinois could beat Indiana
a couple of weeks ago, and I was not wrong.
It's just that kids and coaches and officials screwed up,
so kids and coaches and officials could screw up again here.

(31:57):
You know, let's take a look what the model thinks Texas. Also,
as I throw up what the model thinks, remember this,
Texas going on the road one hundred and twenty sixth
in the country in penalties. Florida is at least top
forty in that category. The swamp does not make you
more disciplined. I'll just say that. Not a mem Aw quote,
but it could have been. FanDuel's got this number at

(32:19):
Texas minus six and a half. We've got it at
Texas minus five. I woke up with a feeling Sunday
I have not gotten rid of it. I think Florida
is going to win this game. Don't ask me how,
Don't ask me what happens afterwards with Billy Napier. I
don't know. I think Florida is going to find a
way to win the game. I'm just telling you, I

(32:41):
don't think there's that much separation between the teams. I've
been accused of hating on Texas lately, that's not true.
I have chastised the model for being too high on Texas.
I'm not anti Texas. I think again, there is something
to be said about the fact that that team did
not quit on Napier last year. I don't think they're
gonna quit on him this year. They have played a

(33:03):
little bit tougher schedule than Texas, and therefore they have
contributed themselves to their own downfall. They've also faced some
pretty stiff competition, and it's led to this perception that
there's this big gap between these teams. Maybe there is,
Maybe there isn't. Maybe we haven't gotten Lagway at anything
better than a C plus performance level so far this year,

(33:24):
and we get an A minus out of him Saturday. That,
combined with that defense in Texas's offensive struggles and they're
wide receivers, in ability to separate could be the difference.
So I'm gonna roll the dice. Man. Everyone else given
up on BILLI Napier, I'm gonna roll the dice. I'm
gonna buy Florida one more time. I'm gonna take him
to win the game, outright. I tried to flex in

(33:47):
that one. Not as good as our friends at flex
Power but I tried, I tried, I tried, I tried.
So I was talking with the folks at flex Power
earlier today, and you know they're a new partner of ours.
So myflexpower dot com is where you can go really
good products over there. I just want to remind you
if you are unfamiliar, you know, just with the purpi
plural of purpose of generators, you use those things for

(34:11):
a lot. They really come in handy. I'm around them
a lot, for instance in storm damage repair mode because
I am a stormchaser, so I see backup generators have
to get used all the time. But you can use
it to power a pitching machine, which maybe you purchased
an academy. You can use it to pressure wash the driveway.
You can use it to inflate a bouncy castle for
the birthday party. There are a million different uses. But

(34:33):
you know where I see it the most is it tailgates.
Because you got a flex Power generator at a tailgate,
especially the thirty three hundred igh just my preferred model.
You are a hero, you are quite literally a king.
You don't walk into the tailgate scene with a flex
Power generator and become less popular. I'm not saying that

(34:53):
it's gonna make you prom king or queen or anything
like that. You used to got work to do yourself.
But I'm just saying it doesn't hurt. It does not
hurt at all. And we were very excited that they're
on board, friends, long time friends of the program. Man,

(35:15):
I had a stat you know what, I'm gonna read
the stat. The previews already done for the game. But
I just want to tell you about that Texas Florida
game they played last year. Okay, it was forty two
to nothing Texas in the third quarter. Texas had six
tds in that game. Two of them were by Golden
He's gone. One was by Gunner Helm He's gone. Isaiah

(35:36):
Bond gone, Blue Gone, Ers gone. Weisner scored one. He's
still there and he is not, you know, a star
player for them so far this year. I just I
know Texas has players. I know they do. I know
they do. I just think the game is going to
be closer than the public thinks. Because the public thinks
it's like this get right spot for Texas. Texas goes
in there and no matter how they win, it's like

(35:59):
an assume thing that they'll win and we'll see if
they can, you know, start building some momentum and they
play Oklahoma next week. By the way they play them
Red River shoot Out, a game known by no other
name than that on this show, that's that's a week
from Saturday. What if it's undefeated Oklahoma against two last Texas.
Someone floated that theory in week one. Don't know whom's

(36:24):
I got a good question here, Ryan from what is
this town in North Carolina? Boys Creek? Is that what
we think? Bradley? Is that what we think? Jesse? Well? Yeah, whatever,
Boy's Creek in North Carolina? Well, Ryan from Beautiful North
Carolina asked this question, what's the most overlooked story in

(36:45):
college football so far this season? It's the transfer portal.
But the transfer portal is a big story. But I'm
talking about a very specific part of the transfer portal
and how it's just changed the sport. And it's almost
one of those things that's been happening right in front
of your face, like it's an overlooked story, but it's
in plain sight. Look at how rapidly these programs have

(37:07):
figured out evaluation in the portal. Cause you know, like
when portal season comes, you'll go to on three dot com,
and you'll look at the portal rankings and they'll have
the available players who have gone in the portal. We
all pay attention to that, and you'll have some of
them who go somewhere and they shine, and then you'll
have others who'll go somewhere and then you don't hear
from them, and it's just good evaluation versus bad evaluation.

(37:31):
All right, the hit rates this last cycle have been insane.
So I'm showing you right now on the screen if
you're listening on podcasts, this is on three's portal rankings
from this past cycle. Carson Beck was the number one
overall player available. David Bailey was in there, John Mattier
was in there, Niko Yamaliava just oh pour one out.

(37:52):
That's its own set of circumstances. But as you can see,
there are a lot of names there, specifically at Oregon,
that are making big impacts. But Texas Tech, just if
you look at the team rankings over it on three
Texas Tech, LSU, Ole, miss Oregon, Miami, Missouri, those were

(38:12):
the top six teams. Those are all playoff contenders right now,
and LSU's issues are not on the defensive side of
the ball where they completely overhauled things and did a
great job over there. But look at Oregon, just to
give you an example, not of the fact that they're
using the portal. That's not the big story. The big
story is the hit rate. The big story is how

(38:34):
these teams are fundamentally changing their trajectories in a given
season like that. So Oregon goes and adds eleven guys
from the portal. They got three offensive line starters. Did
you watch them at Penn State the other night? Okay,
they go on the road, Jesse, how many false starts
like two something like that, And they go on the
road and they weren't dominant. It took them a while,

(38:57):
but they ended up winning the game. You're not supposed
to be able to do that. You're adding portal kids,
You're not supposed to be able to do that. In fact,
that was part of the case for Penn State. And
not only do they add three offensive linemen from the portal,
like it's one thing to add them for depth, They
added three starters on the offensive line, They got multiple
starting dbs from the portal. They got a key tight

(39:18):
end Makai Hughes. The tailback is the one people thought
kind of highly of and not a bad player, but
he was not a guy that was going to come
in there and be a star like a mad Hardy
at Missouri for example, which is its own story, by
the way. But Oregon could win the national title this
year for all we know. And the reason I'm mentioning

(39:39):
it so emphatically, like I almost get worked up about it,
it's because there's this very antiquated way of thinking that
it's lesser than to go to the portal to get talent,
and it's a big risk of, you know, diluting your culture. Hey,
do you watch Oregon the other night? Does it seem

(39:59):
like they're I'm gonna loose at the seams at all?
Does it seem like does it seem like they're a
little rough around the edges culturally? Because it really didn't
feel that way to me. It feels like they went
into state colleges through ninety eight under the chin of
James Franklin and his team. No problem that. And then
there's Texas Tech. Texas Tech added almost twice as many

(40:19):
guys as Oregon, so maybe you go for quality here. Well,
Texas Tech needed both. They needed quality. They needed quantity.
So Texas Tech goes and adds twenty one guys from
the portal we counted earlier. Today, thirteen of those guys
have already played one hundred plus snaps this year. Another
one got hurt or he was well on his way,

(40:40):
and then several others are providing depth, like there are
a couple of other ones who have played over fifty
plus snaps and again, not a whisper of culture issue.
I keep mentioning that because I got Clemson over here
talking about how nope, we gotta stay very rigid and
we got to add here to all way of doing things,

(41:01):
and we can't bend, not even a little bit. And
the insinuation is there's a right way in a wrong way,
or what they would say is there's the Clemson way.
And it frustrates me so much because I know why
they think what they think, and I think they're wrong.
And the case studies are everywhere. Okay, Oregon immediately went
to the portal and fortified a national championship contending roster.

(41:23):
Texas Tech went to the portal brought in wholesale changes
like they just imported a new defensive line. They go
to Utah quarterback gets hurt, doesn't matter. We're gonna pull
away anyway. Texas Tech is now the overwhelming favorite to
win the Big Twelve. They're the best team in the
Big Twelve right now. They're the only team I've looked
at just from a pure talent profile standpoint in the

(41:44):
Big Twelve and said, if that team makes the playoff,
they could actually win some games in the playoff because
they've got players that good. Six of the top ten
players on their defense are transfers. They had the number
one portal class in the on three rankings. And again
I remember we were doing we were doing show prep

(42:05):
about a month ago. It would have been about a
month and a half ago, because it was like two
weeks to go until kickoff, and it was a Sunday afternoon.
We were just talking to Joey maguire, friend of the program,
and he was explaining in as vivid a detail as
he could what the vibe was like around there. And
I remember he told us then and you have since

(42:26):
seen it born out. He said, I know people are
going to think that since we got so many portal kids,
it's just a bunch of mercenaries here, and it's a
bunch of individuals and no team, he said, I swear
to you, I've never had a better dynamic than I
have right now. I don't know how to explain it
if you're not here. I don't know how to explain
it to people who have grown up knowing college football

(42:49):
one way and you're just supposed to get all your
talent from high school and otherwise it's going to be
really risky. I don't know how to explain it. I'm
just telling you we've got an incredible culture. Cohesion is
great here. Now. That doesn't guarantee we're gonna win games,
but I remember him telling me that in August, and
I am sharing that with you because now you see it.
They got Houston this weekend, by the way, or I

(43:10):
think it maybe a fighting game, but LSU. I was
very critical of LSU the other night. Not their defense.
They've gone from eighty first in the country to fifty
ninth in the country to No. Eleventh in the country
in total defense. They took eighteen kids out of the
portal this last year. I'll tell you what they didn't do.
They didn't go get a right tackle. That was kind

(43:31):
of the thinking around there. We got to address this defense,
and they did. Austin Thomas may be the best general
manager in the country. He's one of them, if not
the And over the past two cycles, they have done
an incredible job of saving that defense, getting the players,
and getting the coaches. So credit where it's due to LSU.
They went and got game changing coaches, they've gotten game

(43:53):
changing talent, and their struggles this year have nothing to
do with the defensive side of the ball. They just
flat out they did not go get offensive line help.
They banked on the fact that they could develop right tackle.
They have not, and you've also got a hurt quarterback
and you can't run the ball as a result. Okay,
that's not that defense's fault. So it's a little case study,

(44:14):
little individual case study there at LSU, but also Texas
A and M. You know, Texas A and M is
another example. They looked at their quarterback, Marcel Reid. They
evaluated him, they defined him, his strengths and weaknesses, and
they decided, we need to be more explosive. We've got
to have a better vertical pass threat because he can
do it. We don't have the players here, So they

(44:36):
went and got Mario Kraver and they went and got
Casey Concepcion and both of them are studs. You watched
the Notre Dame game. Did you ever think in your
life this time a year ago, boy A and m
if they need to go on the road and score
forty throwing the ball, they'll be able to do it
against a national title contender. No, you didn't. Now you do,

(44:57):
because the portal, just like that, just like that, can
change the fortunes of a team. Miami was terrible in
their secondary last year, horrible. Miami is one of the
best teams in the country right now. They are now
top twenty five in passing defense and they've only got
one returning starter in that secondary from last year. Elsewhere

(45:18):
they brought in an entirely new secondary and a new
coordinator and voila. Now, question with them and all these
teams is as you get deeper into the season, does
it sustain itself? But there's also you know, it sounds
good here. If you're just listening to this and you
know nothing about the portal, you would think, oh, everyone
should use the portal. Oh no, it's very risky. It's

(45:40):
very risky. You still in an ideal world would love
to just build strictly through high school. None of these
places look and say, yeah, we just want to live
in the portal forever. They're just not dumb enough. They're
not ignorant or obtuse enough to say we're never going
to use the portal. But it does have its downsides.
For instance, at Auburn right now, they had to nail

(46:03):
quarterback and they didn't, and they are suffering and are
going to continue to suffer as a result of the
fact that Jackson Arnold's not the right guy. Their offensive
line situation is a mess. At Nebraska, you know, we
were up there a couple of weeks ago. Everyone thought
that Elijah Pritchett. They went and got him to transfer
from Alabama. They thought that that was going to be

(46:23):
an answer for them at one of the tackle spots.
It wasn't, and Michigan caved them all afternoon because they
didn't nail that. So it is not without its risks.
But I'm telling you these that's why I'm pointing out evaluation. Okay,
Pritchett was a poor evaluation. He was never going to
be a game changer. He's definitely not worth the money

(46:44):
Nebraska paid him. Jackson Arnold did oh at Auburn, But
go ask Oregon as they were flying home from that
game in State College, Isaiah World or pregnant or these
guys that we got on the offensive line. I mean,
that is the difference in the futures of a coaching staff,

(47:04):
the future of front office, the future of the players themselves,
the future of the other guys who were already on
the team. And I would just I just love to know.
I do know, because I'm around Oregon enough, but I'd
love for everyone else to listen to how the other
guys in that locker room feel, Cause those guys came in.
You think everyone's standing in their respective corners. You know,

(47:26):
the guys that got recruited to Orgon out of high school,
and they're over there staring at the guys who portled in. No,
they're all wearing the same helmet on Saturday, fighting for
the same thing on Saturday. Are they getting paid money?
Aren't they? Josh? Yeah, yeah they are. Can you pick
out the ones who are and aren't being paid big money?
Pop on that pop on that Oregon film, Pop on
that Texas Tech Utah film. Which of those Texas Tech

(47:47):
players were exhibiting selfish tendencies in that pull away win.
Did anybody see that? I haven't noticed that. So look,
I was resistant to a lot of this change, truth
be told. I still prefer the old school way. I
love what recruiting used to be. I loved knowing that
if a guy committed to Tennessee out of high school,

(48:09):
pretty decent chance he's going to be their four years.
It made me care about the recruiting process on the
front end a whole lot more. It made National Signing
Day my Christmas essentially. So yeah, I miss it, but
I can't go back. I can't control it. Most of
these coaches, truth be told, they'd love to do that
as well. But there's a difference in living in a

(48:30):
fairytale world living in the real world. And I think
the biggest story right now is some guys have embraced
the change and thrived because of it, Like Dan Lanning's
life has changed because of the portal. That doesn't mean
they don't recruit their tails off, but it does mean
that there's this entirely new mechanism here that if we've
got holes on our roster, we don't have to bubble

(48:53):
gum and paper clip our way through a season. If
we can pony up. I mean, if if we got
an organizational structure, our donor class, our administrative class, they're
willing to play ball with us. We don't have to
just go patchwork. We can cement one of those holes
closed with a future first round NFL draft pick. It's there.

(49:17):
You can either choose to use it, or you can
get beaten because someone else used it. Those are really
the only two options right now. And then there's a
third option. Academy Sports and Outdoors. You know, they've been
a legit for a long time. And frankly, I don't
think if you go to academy you need to go
anywhere else. Sometimes if you just recruit, you got to

(49:38):
go to the portal. I don't think if you go
to Academy and you look long enough, you need to
go many other places. Like they don't sell gasoline there,
you know, so you may have to fill up the
car on the way home. I have an idea where
you should go. But other than that, they got your
big league chew, they got your overalls, they got your
canopies and your tents. They got your buckets with the
padded tops. So not only can you carry around your

(50:00):
baseballs or softballs, but you can also sit on it.
It's great. They're great if you can't get there in person.
Academy dot Com, as you covered, they have been a
longtime partner of ours. I'm just gonna say this. I
don't think we could get by without them. There you go.
I don't even say that about Bradley, and I say
that about Academy. We have arrived at the portion of

(50:20):
the show where I have to do a couple of things.
First thing I have to do, let's take a sip
of water, no free shout outs on the jug. And
the second thing I have to do is I have
to take a little bit of a victory lap. But
that doesn't sound like me, so you know what I'll
call an audible I won't take a victory lap. Here

(50:43):
here's the beginning of the segment, Bradley, so you'll know
for later. It is time to unveil the week sixth
edition of the JP Pole. Not rankings, but ratings. So
these are not rankings that we do Thursday night, and
it's starting to make a lot more sense to people.
I noticed as the dust settled on Saturday, I opened

(51:04):
my DMS and it's never a good idea. But I
you know what, I'm not gonna I'm not gonna lie.
I interact with a bunch of you via DM every day.
But I opened my DMS, and you know what I found, Jesse.
I found a lot of people congratulating us, And I
said why And they said, well, I noticed that you
had lsu low already, and now it looks like you

(51:24):
were proven right. Noticed you never really dropped Bama far
and they beat Georgia. Looks like you were right. Florida State.
That was Friday night. We didn't have Florida State any
higher than I think fourteenth or something like that. They lost.
Now why is that important? It's important because the JP

(51:44):
pole is predictive and it is built just to compare
teams who would be favored against two on a neutral field.
And now there's some results already this year, like Florida
State over Bama in Week one. That when Florida State
did not jump Bama in the JP pole, got a
lot of people upset because they didn't understand the concept
of neutral field favorability. You remember a couple of weeks ago,

(52:06):
I hit up FanDuel just so they could back us
up on it, and I had them confirm. This was
in week two, right after Florida State smoked Alabama, and
they said, if the game happened again today on a
neutral field, Bama would be an eight and a half
point favorite. So we were right. There wasn't even a
matter of opinion, and people were still arguing with us. Well,
now that we've gotten a few more weeks down the road,

(52:27):
you started to see some of the results happen that
backed up what the JP pole had and that included
last week. Like we even disagreed with Vegas last week
because we had Old Miss already ahead of LSU by
a pretty wide margin. We thought Old Miss was already
better than LSU. We've been dropping LSU steadily two weeks

(52:49):
through three weeks in a row. I think the model
has because it picked up on the flaws. Okay, So
I just used that as the backdrop because we were
accused of things like clickbaiting, you know, for the sin
of not having teams where some people thought they should be. Well,
the results are kind of backing up the model a
lot more than the claims of clickbaiting. Plus I don't

(53:09):
know what I want you to click on maybe the video.
I don't know. Anyway, here we go number twenty. This
week Michigan, we got Vandy at nineteen. Remember those are
not rankings. I would have Vandy ranked much higher. I
consider Vandy and Bama possibly a top ten matchup. We
got to see where Bama's ranked Thursday and the Commissioner's pull.

(53:29):
Utah's number eighteen. They're up four spots. Florida State's at seventeen.
LSU is at sixteen. Notice LSU didn't drop I think
they dropped one spot. Florida State dropped one spot. We
already had them in the right place, so we didn't
have to adjust them. We got pretty much the performance
levels that we thought we would get from LSU and

(53:51):
from FSU, so we didn't have to move them a
whole lot. We were ahead of the curve on them.
That's good. That's what we're trying to do. It's predictive.
Missouri's at fifteen. Tennessee is at fourteen, and Tennessee they
dropped three spots, but they didn't really drop. We didn't
downgrade them. It's just some teams moved ahead of them
because we got the performance we thought we'd get from

(54:12):
Tennessee too. What Mississippi State was one of our favorite
bets of the week. Remember, so we thought it would
be a close game. The model thought it would be
a close game. Therefore, when it was a close game,
it got what expected. That means it has no reason
to adjust the power rating. For Tennessee. We got Texas
Tech thirteen, Texas A and M twelve, and Indiana at

(54:33):
number eleven. By the way, with Texas Tech, there is
now a three and a half point gap between them
and Utah at number eighteen. And I mentioned Utah cause
that's the next closest Big twelve team. So a little
bit of a gap forming a top a usually very
compacted conference. Let's go top ten. Bradley, oh you is

(54:53):
at number ten, Miami is at nine. Notice jpee Pole
still just a little bit lower on Miami than the
rankings would be. They're still holding off a little bit.
I know a lot of you find it shocking. For example,
Texas is at eight, Penn State's at seven. A lot
of you find it shocking Penn State would still be

(55:14):
favored against Miami. I don't know what to tell you.
They would, at least according to the model. Ole miss
is at number six. We got a lot of pushback
last week when we already had ole Miss top ten.
Now everyone does. We got them at number six. Penn
State at number seven also is the classic situation of
it not being a ranking. I didn't have Penn State

(55:37):
at number seven in my rankings last week. I already
had them down at number ten last week before they
got beat by Oregon. So definitely, power ratings wise, the
model is going to be higher on Penn State than
a ranking. Penn State has no business being top ten
in any ranking right now, but there aren't many teams
that would just straight up be favored against them on

(55:58):
a neutral field, so you're not gonna drop them too far.
Penn State. I don't know how they didn't really drop
all that far at all. Number six is old mess.
Like I said, all right, five to one, Notre Dame
at five, Georgia at four, Bama at three, they're still
right there next to each other. Oregon is two. Ohio
State number one. There is a three point gap between

(56:20):
Ohio State and Oregon right now. I don't know that
I buy that, but hey whatever, they're not gonna play
for at least another couple of months. If they do play.
There is a ten point gap between number two and
number eighteen, so still some very very unprecedented compactedness at
the top of the field. But yeah, Ohio State has

(56:42):
opened up as big a gap between number one and
the rest of the field as we've seen all year.
It's a three point gap, you know, so that could
change week to week. And I also do want a note.
They beat Washington last week, really good win on the
road shut them down. Our model has Washington in like
the forty. I don't know what that means. It made

(57:02):
mean nothing. Ohio State did win convincingly. But just as
we continue to choose how much stock to put in wins,
I'm just keeping that in mind, there's not really a
whole lot of opportunities for Ohio State to get exposed,
even if they do have vulnerability, and they may not
have a lot like really good coaching job going on
right now in Columbus, Ohio. They're watching us in Alexandria, Virginia,

(57:25):
in Venice, California, and in Panama City Beach, Florida. Thank
you so much. Let's continue. We've got a very sensitive
topic here, very sensitive topic. Earlier today I was made
aware of a tweet from someone near and dear to

(57:46):
most of our hearts who is a real person. Unfortunately,
this week he is a real person, and that is
Producer Jesse. Producer Jesse went to Penn State loves Penn State.
You cut him open and you don't have red all
over the carpet. It's blue and white. How does it happen?
No one knows, but he's all in Okay. So Producer

(58:08):
Jesse goes to Twitter earlier today and he says, all right,
here's the tired point of view. Penn State lost another
big game and we're destined for another above average season
that ends in a gut punch. But here's the wired
point of view. Our offense was terrible for three quarters
and we took a top three team in the country
to double overtime with multiple opportunities to win. So, as

(58:32):
you can see, they're gonna let it happen to him again,
and it's time to do a good old fashioned Penn
State mood tracker around here. I went over to Blue
White Illustrated earlier. I just wanted to see what Sean
Fitz and the boys were talking about over there. I
wanted to take the temperature and there are some folks
who were out There are many more folks like Jesse.
There are many more folks who have won plenty of

(58:54):
bronze medals. They've even placed silver a few times. Gold
has eluded them. But that does mean you ever stopped chasing.
So I had Jesse get out of his chair today
and I had him go sit on the couch for
a little while, because as you know, i'm a licensed therapist,
I'm not. And I had Jesse describe his mood to me.

(59:14):
And he started going down really really long, rambling incoherent sentences,
and I said, no, no, no, use your big boy
words adjectives, one word at a time. Describe how you feel,
the most unfortunate paper Pop this side of Saturday Night producer.
Jesse feels disenfranchised, he feels detached, he feels disappointed. There's

(59:41):
more than just d here, immunity. He feels gullible. He
said he felt gullible. He said he feels victimized. He
even said he felt bamboozled, which I thought was a
word that got retired in like nineteen ninety six. He
feels jettisoned, and I thought he was done. There's a

(01:00:01):
long pause and I started to move on with my life,
and then he said, but I'm also hooked. So Jesse's
still all in. James Franklin, I know watches every second
of every show we do, and so he needs to know.
You need to know, coach, that you've still got producer Jesse,
which you need to be careful. That's a fragile heart

(01:00:21):
that you hold in your hands right now. And he's
not alone. Like I said, I went over to Blue
White Illustrated today and there is a lot of vulnerability.
There are a lot of feelings being shared on the
message board over there, and of course there is a
cure and it's called UCLA. And fortunately, I think it's
the best time to get out of town and fly

(01:00:42):
nineteen thousand miles across the country. Go over there tomorrow
for all I care. Spend as much time away from
home as you can right now. It's good to get
out there, get your little sunburn. Okay, go stroll the
beach for a little while. It's just it's UCLA. You'll
be fine. Just show up on time on Saturday. You'll
be fine. I have a theory. You in my mood

(01:01:02):
on Penn State, I've got a theory that I stated
as soon as the game ended, and we talked about
it on Sunday night. My theory about Penn State football
is a new timeline started the moment that game ended
Saturday night. But I don't know what kind of timeline
it is, because we're gonna have to have like three
years perspective down the road. We're gonna have to get

(01:01:23):
to twenty twenty eight before we really know which timeline
started on that Saturday night in September after Oregon beat
us at home. The first kind of timeline is it
was the beginning of the end for James Franklin, and
we just didn't know it at the time. And it
may be that he takes another job. It may be
that later he's fired, not this year, but down the

(01:01:44):
road he ends up being fired, or it gets really
messy and contentious and each side just despises each other
and there's a lot of toxicity that's happened in college
football before. That's one possible timeline that begins. There's another
possible timeline. This is the one I'm hoping for, and
that is where James Franklin realizes I've gone about as

(01:02:07):
far as my current approach will take us, But I
haven't gone as far as I can go. I've just
got to change some things about my approach. So I
look at my roster. I had everything going for me
this year, this game. We led up to it, and
it culminated in me having a bye week and them
coming across the country on the road with a new
quarterback and a young team and a lot of new pieces,

(01:02:27):
and all my pieces are well established, and it still
wasn't good enough for us. So how can I ever
hope to be in a better position doing it my
current way than I am right now? Which de incentivizes
that and incentivizes doing it a new way. And my
hope is that the new timeline that began is one
that maybe changes just degrees of change here and degrees

(01:02:50):
of change there. With the way James Franklin goes about
running the Penn State football program, that will ultimately yield
a better result with a higher ceiling than the one
we've seen so far. Crystal clear, there's no more defined
ceiling in college football than James Franklin currently has at
Penn State. They just bang their head against it every year,

(01:03:10):
so there is no more defined ceiling. He may disagree
with that, but the results speak for themselves. So my
point is that doesn't have to be James Franklin ceiling.
It just you gotta change some things. Okay, if you
eat the exact same thing every day and you look
the exact same way in the mirror, that doesn't mean
you're incapable of looking different. You've just got to change
something about the diet. You gotta work out a little more.

(01:03:32):
You got to take this away, you got to add this.
You've got to basically align everything about what you are
with your purpose and just do it a little better,
do it a little different. Either way. A new timeline
started the other night. And one thing to keep in mind,
just as it relates to this year. Okay, there's only
so much you can change about yourself this year. I

(01:03:55):
listened to his press conference either today or yesterday. He
said all the right things, and he's right. It's a
long season. Really, in the grand scheme of this year,
all they've done is lose a conference game in overtime.
It's not the worst thing in the world. I know
all that, I know all that I think. We also
know that this was a very different game. This was
not just one game. Yeah, and the conference standings. It's

(01:04:17):
one game, it represented a whole lot more. It was symbolic.
It was like boss Man getting hung at WrestleMania fifteen.
It was symbolic. Michael Coley yelled at a million times
like there's a guy just just dangling there from the ceiling.
Seems pretty evident that that's the thing, but he kept yelling.
Is this symbolic of something? Well, symbolically, that loss was

(01:04:38):
a whole lot more than just a loss. And let
me use another late nineties pro wrestling metaphor. You remember
King of the Ring ninety nine, Jess. You remember that
main event ladder match Austin versus the McMahon's. Remember the briefcase,
Austin's within reach and then someone just yanks it up there.
That's what it feels like right now. That's what it
feels like for Penn State. But but how many elite

(01:04:59):
teams are there in the country this year, because this
is what they're kind of having a bank on right now.
Penn State's not an elite team, but they're a really
good team. There are not many teams that are better
than Penn State because you know, like even in a
down night the other night, like he said, they took
Oregon to overtime. What you don't know is how the
rest of the year is going to play out. You
don't know what injury could do to other teams. You
don't know that Penn State, even in their current state,

(01:05:21):
may not be close enough to where plus three turnovers
in the game may be all the difference in the world.
Like they I don't know if they couldn't go on
to win the national title. I think their limit is
below that of a national title. I think that, but
there's no there's no like unequivocally elite, better, above and
beyond type team. There may be by the time we

(01:05:42):
get to December, they may go to Columbus and lose
thirty eight to ten, but they're going to be really competitive.
So I'm not saying tap out, Jesse, don't stop, don't
tap out, but you know, believe, but demand. I think
that's the best of roach right now. I hope this
has helped. Speaking of Penn State over at FanDuel right now,

(01:06:05):
the exclusive odds provider of the show, what if I
told you they still have the fifth best odds to
win it all? Because they do? They do. I don't
know that many of you are rushing to bet it
at the moment, but they have the fifth best odds
to win it all and you can. You can find
that at FanDuel. I don't have to prove it. They'll
prove it. They are my proof. I want to remind
you if you're a new customer, if you're a new

(01:06:26):
sign up over there, you can use that QR code.
Or if you don't trust QR codes I don't, you
can just go to FanDuel dot com forward slash Josh
Pate and sign up and deposit however much you want.
I don't care. Deposit ten dollars, deposit ten million dollars,
probably a limit on the ten million. Give it to
me and then I'll give it to them. But here's

(01:06:47):
the important thing you need to note. There's a pretty
easy way to get more money and it's very low risk.
Bet five dollars on anything, and if it wins, you
get three hundred dollars in bonus bets. So you know,
go find yourself like a nineteen point favorite this Saturday.
Just bet them on the money line. Bet five dollars
on it. If it hits, you'll get three hundred dollars

(01:07:07):
in bonus bets. That sounds free, Josh, No, legally it's not.
I cannot tell you that's free money because technically you
could lose it. It's just not very likely that you lose.

Speaker 2 (01:07:17):
That must be twenty one plus and present in select
states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or
eighteen plus and present in DC. First online real money
wager only five dollars first deposit required. Bonus issued as
non withdrawable bonus bets, which expires seven days after receipt.
Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook dot FanDuel dot com.

(01:07:37):
Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler, or visit FanDuel
dot com slash RG call one eight eight eight seven
eight nine seventy seven seventy seven, or visit CCPG dot
org slash chat in Connecticut, or visit nd gambling Help
dot org in Maryland. Hope is here? Visit Gambling Helplinema
dot org or call eight hundred three two seven fifty
fifty for twenty four seven support in Massachusetts or call

(01:07:59):
one eight seven, seven and eight Hope and why, or
text hope and why in New.

Speaker 1 (01:08:02):
York and I hope you don't lose these either. These
are our Romnul Express best bets for the week. I
have two more to add tonight, so I'm already on
Vanderbilt plus twelve and a half. We got that one
the other night. That number has dropped two points since then.
We are on wake Forest plus five and a half.
I have rare good news. You can get six and
a half right now. Here are two other games that

(01:08:25):
we're on, Mississippi State plus fourteen and a half at
Texas A and M. Louisville. Just the sun the clouds
broke and the sun shine down. Today, Louisville dropped to
the number we want. They're at six and a half.
Louisville minus six and a half against Virginia. Virginia, the
team that just be Florida State. Yeah, aren't they on

(01:08:48):
added rest? Yeah? And wait, you're telling me they're getting
six and a half. Yeah, lay the points. Louisville's gonna
win and cover. They haven't looked at you at all year. Well,
they haven't looked like I thought they would all year,
and Miller has been up and down. I think they're
gonna be up on Saturday. So I'll take Louisville minus
six and a half Mississippi State plus fourteen and a
half along with Wake and Vandy. Remember remember remember follow

(01:09:14):
on the socials at Josh Pate CFB Prez has got
the TikTok account cooking combination of us have the Instagram
channel cooking plus the story on Instagram is where you
get Friday night lines on Friday. It's where you get
all the behind the scenes access on Saturday. I hit
a ball like nine hundred feet in softball on Friday night.
I put that in the timeline. Not metric system either,

(01:09:36):
good old fashion Imperial system, just good good old fashioned feet.
Probably probably said at some point by sheet, all right,
I appreciate you guys. We'll be back at what time
Jesse seven Eastern, sixth Central on Thursday night. We do
the Thursday Show an hour earlier because of the pesky
NFL four producer Jesse for director Bradley, I'm Josh Pate

(01:09:59):
T take care. We will see you Thursday and until then,
God bless.

Speaker 2 (01:10:18):
Must be twenty one plus and present in select states
for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or eighteen
plus and present in DC. First online real money wager
only five dollars first deposit required. Bonus issued as non
withdrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions
apply see terms at sportsbook dot FanDuel dot com. Gambling
problem call one eight hundred gambler, or visit FanDuel dot

(01:10:40):
com slash RG call one eight eight eight seven eight
nine seventy seven seventy seven, or visit CCPG dot org
slash chat in Connecticut, or visit nd Gamblinghelp dot org
in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit Gambling Helplinema dot org
or call eight hundred three two seven fifty fifty for
twenty four seven support in Massachusetts, or call one eight
seven seven eight Hope and Why or text hope and

(01:11:01):
Why in New York