Week 7 Prediction Show: SEC Showdown Saturday + James Franklin Latest & Commissioner’s Poll

College Football week 7 predictions are here. The SEC schedule is loaded with games including Alabama vs Missouri, Texas vs Oklahoma, Florida vs Texas A&M, South Carolina vs LSU, and UGA vs Auburn. Will Steve Sarkisian get the Horns back on track? Can Kalen DeBoer and the Tide avoid an upset in Columbia? Will Hugh Freeze find a way against Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs? What will Billy Napier find in College Station against Mike Elko? What happens between Hugh Freeze and Kirby Smart? In a rare Tuesday release we get Josh Pate’s updated top 25 in the Commissioner’s Poll. Is Ohio State ahead of Miami? Where are FSU and Alabama? Are Penn State and Clemson anywhere to be found? What is the latest with James Franklin at Penn State and Billy Napier at Florida? All that plus best bets on the Ramen Noodle Express.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:13):
Ladies and gentlemen. I had some hashtag conversations earlier today,
lengthy conversations, in depth, scoop kind of conversations, and I
really don't think the college football public has the slightest
clue how close we are to just a cataclysmic coaching carousel,
the rare triple c. We're really close to it, Like

(00:33):
one or two things go sideways and it triggers a
domino effect the likes of which I don't think we've
seen in a wide open coaching market in several years.
I mean, the over under is like two and a
half major jobs coming open. So with that, we're jampacked.
We're high a top, a saggy turned beautiful immunity. Downtown Nashville, Tennessee,

(00:54):
Tuesday Night, October seventh, the Year of Our Laura twenty
twenty five. James Franklin Is he to be at Penn
State in twenty twenty six? Ironically, I wasn't even talking
about him in the intro. That's its whole separate thing,
and back by popular demand, we'll talk about it tonight,
but not before we do massive game previews. It is
a preview Tuesday around here. We have got a just

(01:16):
a monstrous, just gargantuan is a very adjective field opening
to the show slate this Saturday, and we're gonna break
down most of them tonight. We have some spillage that
we will hit Thursday. So if the games aren't hit tonight,
we're gonna hit him Thursday. I got full predictions on
all those. I've got the Commissioner's pole tonight. We changed
up the order. We're gonna do JP pole Thursday night.

(01:38):
This week. At least, we're gonna do the Commissioner's poll
tonight because I thought that this week's ap pole warranted
a more immediate response from the office of the future
Commissioner of this sport. And I will do that. Got
all kinds of stuff woeing throughout the show tonight. It's
jam pack. They're watching us in Culman, Alabama. Myrtle Meat,
South Carolina, Southampton, England is tuned in, and I hope

(01:59):
they're team are doing okay this year. And Toledo, Ohio.
I gotta thank you because the other night in the
intro of the show, I haphazardly said, hey, subscribe to
the channel if you haven't already, and I gave you
a statistic, which is fact that like half the people,
about fifty two percent of the people who watch the
channel are not subscribed. I left it at that, right Jesse.

(02:20):
I went back and looked and we got like three
thousand subs off of that. So if we extrapa laid
out if I just keep saying that, we may hit
five hundred thousand subs way before Thanksgiving, which has been
our internal goal around here. So hey, I'm making the
prayer hands. If you're listening on podcast, it doesn't cost
you a thing, it doesn't sign you up for anything.
It just helps us. It puts food on Bradley's table.

(02:42):
And all you gotta do is subscribe. That's it. That's it.
Just check half of you think you are and you're not,
so check even if you think you're subbed, if you're not,
check click the end. Let's dive into the show tonight.
Huge Saturday coming up in Columbia, Missouri, will be there
fueled by Quick Trip. Yes, the Fall Note Lie Tour

(03:04):
is making its way back to Missouri, the first time
we've been there since well, the last time we were there. Obviously,
in the last time we were there, do you know
what happened? A walk off field goal and a field storming.
And that's the only game I've been to at Missouri.
So there's a big dynamics edge here, I think edge Missouri.
We circled this game in the preseason when we were

(03:25):
doing our sleeper games of the year, and we you know,
we said Texas Florida, and that one panned out last week. Well,
I also said Alabama at Missouri. So Alabama, you know,
they played at Georgia, they won, then they came home.
They had the big revenge spott against Vanderbilt. First time
that combination of words has ever come out of my mouth,
and they won that one too, And all the while

(03:47):
we knew Eli Drinkwitz and Missouri were just gonna be
sitting up there with their feet propped up, waiting on
Alabama to come to them. Missouri was on a bye
last week. So that's the first thing. The second thing
you need to know is it turns out Eli drink
Which is fairly good at what he does. His first
three seasons at Missouri seventeen and nineteen, sort of getting

(04:08):
things in order, sort of revenue engine a little bit,
or at least building the engine to get ready to
rev and rev he has the last two years and
change twenty six and five. I think that's a paper
popper of a stat They're nailing the portal perennially underrated
coaching staff. If you don't believe me, Look how many
of their guys get hired away. They got guys interviewing
for jobs even as we speak. So what's Alabama going

(04:31):
to get defensively Saturday? I don't mean what is Caine
Womack's crew going to put out on the field. I
mean when Alabama lines up, what are they getting from Missouri?
Because I'm looking at this stat profile right now on
paper where the game is not played. But that's all
we have to go on. Missouri number two total defense,
number one run defense, number ten pass defense. Does that

(04:55):
sound right? If you've watched Missouri this year? Does that
sound like them? It's a classic stress test. We always
use the damn metaphor on the show spelled dam of course,
kid friendly show around here. And sometimes you got cracks
in the dam and they just haven't been exposed yet.
And in college football what that means is sometimes you've

(05:17):
got flaws on your team, sometimes you've got weaknesses. But
if you hadn't faced anyone built to expose them. We
don't know that their weaknesses. And then other times you
really are just as strong as the paper says you are.
So that's the first thing we got to figure out
about Missouri because the best team they've played is Kansas.
All due respect to Kansas. May like them against TCU
later this week or Texas Tech, whoever they play. But

(05:39):
if they are what they look like they are on paper,
if they pass that test, then Alabama total offense forty
second in the country right now, but they're rushing numbers,
even with last weekend are still in the one hundreds.
Spama's still in the one hundreds in rush yards per game. Now,
if you're a believer that Jim Miller in that ground game,
that offensive line just got gear last week. Okay, if

(06:02):
you believe that, I need to see it more than
one week to think it's just going to always click
that way. Can you corrupt this? So this is the
big question for Missouri's defense. Can you corrupt this seventeenth
on third down? That's Alabama. They're fifth passing and they
are number one in the country in turnover margin. Now,

(06:23):
if you get them on the road and you're building
up there, and you corrupt that little batch of stat
profile for Alabama, that's how yours ends up verifying. So
that's the first thing I'll watch from Missouri, because it's
always going to be the case. When you play inferior
competition to start a season, You're going to get some
guy over in the corner yelling, well, who have they

(06:44):
played well? Who have they played well? I've never been
a big believer of who have they played? But I
am a believer in let's make sure all of this verifies.
And the deeper you get into the season before you
play a legit top ten, top fifteen caliber team, the
deeper you get in without some parts of your profile verifying.
So that's the first thing. The second thing is I'm

(07:04):
gonna lean in a little closer because I'm ana whisper this.
I don't want everyone to hear this because this is
not supposed to be the case, but it is the case.
This game right here is a bigger test for Alabama's
offensive line than facing Georgia. Oh, no way way. Georgia
can't pressure the quarterback. Missouri can number two pressure rate

(07:25):
in the country. Actually, So if you had fears, if
you had this nightmare image in your mind as a
Bama fan of your team going into Sandford Stadium and
Ty Simpson constantly being under duress and that offensive line
being put in a blender. It didn't happen there. You
hope it doesn't happen again, period. But I'm just telling you, Unfortunately,

(07:46):
the more likely culprits to make that happen are the
Missouri Tigers, if what we see on paper about their
stat profile defensively verifies that offensive line at Alabama still
mixing and matching. I mean, I listened to Ryan Grubb
last week. He was asked, Hey, why do you guys
keep doing that? He said, yeah, we hadn't settled on
our five yet, which is pretty basic answer. I don't

(08:10):
think he's lying, So if he was, that have the
same five trot out there. Zion Young's a really good
player for Missouri. Damon Wilson would be starting for Georgia
right now and be one of their better players. But
he's there. Chris McClelland like, they've got legit sec disruption
makers up front defensively, and I see, here's the irony

(08:30):
of this, not irony. I'm not a Lanis Moore set
But here's the funny thing. I see a similar edge
Alabama has against Missouri that they had against Georgia. This
is all in theory because when you looked at that
game Alabama versus Georgia, you kind of knew, hey, man,
if ty Simpson's got time, he could go to work
against that Georgia secondary. I think the same thing here.

(08:51):
If he's got time, especially with that group of wide
outs there, he can go to work against this Missouri secondary.
I think I just am less sure that he'll have
a whole bunch of time in this one. Then I
was against Georgia, especially having already seen the Alabama Georgia game.
You gotta be really careful of game script. I'll tell
you why this game is so unpredictable to me, and

(09:13):
we're gonna be there because of how unpredictable it is.
But the reason it's so unpredictable is because of how
pivotal game script is. Here. You always find yourself saying,
oh so and so needs a hot start, Oh so
and so needs to start fast. Everyone wants to start fast.
Some teams kind of need it. Look, Alabama got down
last week and they won. Missouri could get down early

(09:37):
Saturday and still win. What I'm saying is in terms
of game script. Look, Missouri went and got a mod
hardy out of the portal, and he's he may be
the best tailback in the country right now, seven point
one yards per carry. He's been one hundred or more
in every game. Jamal Roberts is back up. He's good.
Bo Prabula at quarterback can run the ball as well.

(09:57):
I picture Alabama getting a lead in the game, and
I picture some of that being negated. Okay, if you
don't if you let Missouri grab the lead, or you
don't let them and they just forcefully grab the lead, well,
then you start to get yourself into a game script
that you kind of feared in some of these other
games you've had so far this year. If you're Alabama
and that is uh oh, we're facing the best tailback

(10:19):
we face so far this year. Our run defense is okay,
eighty eighth in the country right now, giving up one
hundred and fifty five per game. Been some long runs
mixed in there. Georgia creased you a time or two.
Georgia got to the edge of time or eight. If
that starts happening, the big fear you had against Vandy,
which is they consistently win third downs, chain can chains

(10:42):
consistently move? My offense is being kept off the field.
That's a game script that Missouri can quickly get you in.
And conversely, if they're playing with the lead, then all
of a sudden, a good pressure team in Missouri is
facing you in obvious passing situations. You're having to play
from behind, kind of like you did against Florida State.

(11:03):
And that's the last time that we really saw Ty
Simpson get harassed. Now, there is a strong working theory
around Alabama that a lot of what you saw against
Florida State is ancient history. That may be the case.
You don't know one hundred percent until you're put in
a similar position. So let's take a look at what
the model thinks on this game. Right now, Alabama's favored

(11:26):
by three and a half at FanDuel. Our model agrees
nearly totally. We've got Alabama minus three, so we're right
down to the wire. This should be a very highly
competitive game. The only thing I'm struggling with with Missouri,
because I gave you several reasons to pick them to
win the game. The one thing I'm struggling with is
the scaling issue if it is an issue, because I

(11:48):
think I got a pretty good read on what Bama
is right now. Think I got a pretty good trust
in then being able to throw the ball effectively. I
feel like their ground game is coming on. I feel
like they are opportunistic and really smart with what they
do defensively given what they have, I got a good
read on them. With Missouri, there's a lot about the
scalability of the production. That is a question. All that means,

(12:11):
it's a really fancy way of saying, you've played really
good against inferior competition. Do I think you will play
equally as good against far superior competition. They're not superior
to you, per se, they're superior to who you've played
so far. Alabama is my national champion. Okay, I need them,
I need them winning. Is that bias slightly? So I'm

(12:33):
going to very slightly lean Alabama to win the game
and cover I guess we suffice it to say, we'll
not be putting this on the Rama Nudle Express. And
this is the kind of game where if Missouri wins,
I will have given like thirty seven reasons to kick
myself on the way home listening to this video and
saying you almost had it. You gave so much good

(12:55):
reasoning and then you picked Bama. I gotta go with them.
That's my national champion, and I think they're a better team.
I think they are the better team. The dynamics are
definitely against them in this game. We do not have
dynamics against us because we've got Quick Trip in our
back pocket, all right, so we will be fueled all
the way there and all the way back. They texted

(13:16):
me the other day, you guys see this if you're
following me on the socials at Josh pat CFB. I
don't know if many other partners out there do this.
Quick Trip Joe QTJ hit me and said, hey, you
haven't given away enough free gas this week. They called
me out for not giving away enough of their gas.
So I just went on Twitter and said who wants

(13:38):
free gas? And then Quick Trip came in behind and said,
check your DMS, check your dms, check your dms. That's
why we partnered with them, and that is the reason
will be in Columbia, Missouri this Saturday, eleven am local
kick noon on the East Coast. We appreciate them now
and forever. Also, some of you have been asking I

(14:00):
keep forgetting to plug it. I was about to forget
there until Jesse told me the answer to your question
is yes. And if you're wondering what the question is,
it's are you putting the updated Falldon't Lie shirts in
the peyatestatematerial dot com store. Yes, so like it's on
the board right here behind me. If you're watching on YouTube,
we have a Falldon't Lie Tour shirt and then we

(14:20):
update it with the town that we're going to. So
the Columbia, Missouri version. Yes, peytstatematerial dot com. It's available
there right now. Thank you, Jesse. Next up, I'm getting
nervous looking at the piece of paper in front of me.
Red River Shootout, Texas, Oklahoma, Saturday, three point thirty Eastern

(14:42):
time on ABC. This game preview is presented by Academy
Sports and Outdoors. I have to tell you, friends, I'm
very upset that we will not be here, but last
week's results sort of had to change our plans. It's
not my fault. Blame it on Stark, Blame it on
Texa's not my fault. This is my favorite game in

(15:02):
college football. I said, what I said. There's no Yeah,
but there's no whatabouts. The Red River Shootout, known by
no other name on this show is my favorite game.
It's my favorite rivalry game. It's my favorite game to
go to. I went there two years ago. You're looking
at b Roll Bradley's rolling it right now. That is halftime.
This is halftime of the game. It's a one tunnel stadium,

(15:24):
much like the Big House in ann Arbor. And so
if you're on the field like we are for the game,
just run up the tunnel at halftime. Go out there,
grab you funnel cake. There's powdered sugar right there on
the black tea. I won a chicken. I secured this video,
which became one of my most used gifts. Look at
the flip of chick. That's a much much more difficult

(15:45):
game than it looks like it is. And it looks difficult.
You just got spinning pots and you got a flip
of chicken into it. Anyway, Wow, what a world we
live in now? Three and two versus five and Oh Now,
if I told you that in July, a lot of
you would have said, oh really, Oklahomas already going have
two losses? Huh? But no, that's not the case. The case,
ladies and gentlemen, is the Texas Longhorns are three and

(16:07):
two against the five and oh undefeated Oklahoma Sooners. And
I ask the great question that gets asked a lot
around these parts, whomso of thunk it roll it? Bradley,
it's not absolutely crazy to think Texas could be a
two loss team when they go into the Red River
Shootout known by no other name on this show. Texas

(16:28):
plays Ohio State in Week one. Okay, they are a
three and a half point dog in that game. They
also play at Florida a few weeks later. That's not
a layup. Texas will be favored very slightly as it
stands right now in that game at Florida, that's a tough,
tough game. That's the week before they play oh you
by the way, Yeah, Texas could lose both of those.

(16:48):
They could certainly win both of those. But look on
the Oklahoma side, Bradley, show me Oklahoma schedule right quick.
So there's at least a case to be made that
Texas not much returning production new starting quarter. They could
stumble a couple of times on the road. Oklahoma will
have not even been on the road. Ironically, by the
time they played Texas, the only road game Oklahoma will

(17:09):
have played is Temple That was from July. Did we
call it? Some say yes, Make no mistake, this is
a must win for Texas. In many ways, it is
a must win for Texas. John Matteir, Oklahoma quarterback, questionable.
According to our FanDuel sources, eighty two percent of the

(17:32):
against the spread wagering in this game is on Oklahoma.
And yet despite all that, Texas is favored. And we
did confirm today that Texas minus one and a half
is a number that assumes John Matteer starts. If John
Matteir is ruled out of this game. According to our
FanDuel sources, you're looking at Texas minus about five and

(17:54):
a half. Is that shocking to a lot of you? Yes,
it is. I would encourage you if you think it's
a lawed number, go bet it until your heart is content.
That's not a hypothetical. You could bet this number right
now anyway, if you're just here for the game preview,
What if John Mattier can't go. There is a world
where I do believe. I do believe actually in the

(18:14):
world we live in that he's very questionable. I do
believe it's going to be a game time decision. It's
a hand It's not like he's recovering from a knee
or an ankle or whatnot, where you have a timeline
that you can trust because you've been down that road
a million times. So I do think he's a game
time decision. This is not an ideal situation for Brent Venables,
but that's why you win the Michigan in Auburn games.
So you don't have to win this thing Saturday. This

(18:37):
season's not over if you lose it. But if he
doesn't start and Michael Hawkins goes, I am about fourteen
of you watched the Oklahoma Kent State game. Okay, if
Michael Hawkins has to start against Texas, Oklahoma needs a
game plan where seventeen points wins them the game. And look,
they could pitch a shutout against Texas, like that's in

(18:57):
the cards. I'm just saying, if Hawkins has to go,
oh boy, they really got to throttle it down. The
whole game is gonna get throttled down. Now, if mateir
does go, is he one hundred percent? It's one thing
for him to take the first snap? What does he
look like on snap one? What does he look like
on snap sixty one? Do they use a two QB system?
Does he go in and they fully intend to play
him the whole way and he just can't do it?

(19:19):
What does the ball look like coming out of his hand?
Can he grip the ball the way he needs to?
These are questions they're asking right now in Norman, and
in fact, the way I know they're asking those questions,
he says, we don't have to guess when you have
a network as vast as ours, when you have connections
as deep as ours, we don't need to wonder from
afar what's going on in Norman, because we have boots

(19:42):
on the ground.

Speaker 2 (19:43):
Take it away, Eddie, It's bigod Eddie Radosevich, suitor scoop
dot Com Day two, John Butteer Watch currently embedded in

(20:04):
one of the bushes outside.

Speaker 3 (20:05):
Of Gaylord Family OK Memorial Stadium, can't breathe. It's worth
it though, to try to give you the latest. Oh
you back in the indoor today? Not surprising, little cloudy
out lots of Kim Trail's for Invitables talks about that today.
Check out Suoterscoop dot com for more.

Speaker 1 (20:28):
The beautiful thing is I did not clear it with him.
That was Eddie Rodosovich soonerscoop dot Com, one of not
just the treasures of college football, but America. I would
say I'd put him on Rushmore if they let me
make the call. I did not tell him we were
going to put that in the show. So I see
the chat going crazy, and I know, good and well

(20:49):
thirty seven of his friends are texting him right now
saying did you see the show? Did you see the show? Honestly,
he should be watching live, but yeah, they don't know.
No one knows out there. Oh you've been practicing indoors
pretty sure, arms security surrounding the perimeter. No one's getting
a look. And then you listen to Brenton Venables press
conference and he's like, John, I don't even know if
he's in the build. I don't know. I'm not a doctor, guys,

(21:10):
I don't know. I don't know. I'm not making fun
of Brenton Vinibles because I would play it every bit
as dumb as he's played it this week. It's brilliant tactically.
So that's the yes no of if John Mattier plays
now the Texas dilemma. Oh Josh, you mean the arch
Manning dilemma, right, No, I don't mean the arch Manning dilemma.
I'm not writing for the New York Times. No, I've

(21:31):
actually watched all of Texas's games, so I know it's
the Texas dilemma. There are four teams. You want a
paper popper. There are four teams in Texas that are
top fifty in rush yards per game, and the University
of Texas is not one of them. I think I
need to repeat it because some of you are washing
dishes right now and I'm just background noise. This is

(21:51):
so inexplicable. There are four teams in the state of
Texas top fifty rushing yards per game, Texas not one
of them. Big humans, endless tailbacks, top quarterback in the
all the advantages in the world, and you can't crack
the top fifty in rushing offense. They're running backs against

(22:12):
Florida nine carries for eleven yards in two games against
Ohio State and Florida. Arch Manning was pressured in thirty
five of seventy eight dropbacks, so it's not like they're
giving him ample time to throw, and his tailbacks are
churning five and a half six yards per carry, and
he's got racehorse receivers all over the place, and he

(22:33):
just sucks again, contrary to what the New York Times
Twitter account would lead you to believe. Pathetic. No, No,
what's happening here is it is a fumbling on multiple
fronts offensively for Texas so far. And now you get
to try and get right against Oklahoma, the number five
run defense in the country, number four pressure rate, number

(22:56):
nine pass blitz rate. Can start bite them on that,
by the way. You know, you get after the quarterback
so much, and then you go up against a guy
that's willing to draw you in, draw you in, draw
you in screen screen screen score. Wow, that's the difference
in a low scoring game. Could happen. I don't feel
easy about it. I don't feel great about it, But
could happen. Here's a pre padlock stat. Just something I'm

(23:19):
focused on in this game. We have a stat in house.
I don't even know that we've ever talked about it
on the show. It's not revolutionary. We just make up
our own language. Cap Buster plays. You've got the explosive plays,
but we love cap buster plays around here because why
run for twenty yards when you can run for forty
plus yards. Cap busters are forty plus yard plays. Oh

(23:39):
you not great? One hundred and twenty fifth in the
country Texas in the fifties. Does Texas have to respect
the deep ball in this game? So, in other words,
what does John Mattier's show that he can do? Cause
if you didn't show he can do a whole lot?
Oh you has not run the ball particularly well themselves
this year. And conversely, can Texas wide receivers get separation

(24:02):
because we got questions about the speed in that room.
And so if neither of them can hit the cap buster,
I don't trust either of them to put together sustained
long drives. The total in this game is forty three
and a half, and you're looking at a solid under
in that case. Here's the hang up I just mentioned it.
With Oklahoma or Oklahoma is looked at publicly as the

(24:22):
decided favorite in this game. Most of the public is stunned.
Most of the public thinks FanDuel is giving away free
money to offer Oklahoma plus points. Period, You think you
should be laying points with ou what they're undefeated, Texas
has got two losses. It's a neutral side game. How
does this happen? There's no clear RB one at Oklahoma either.
Their tailbacks are averaging three point seventy five yards per attempt.

(24:46):
Against Power four teams, it's two point seven yards per attempt.
So if you got a questionable quarterback and then you've
got a ground game that's not lighting the world on
fire against a defense it's unlikely to find its way against,
then what are you really doing? Like, how are you
convincing me you're a solid favorite. You're not. That's why
the point spread is what it is. Texas number eleven

(25:09):
run d in the country, and Texas has their backs
against the wall here and let it be remembered, not known,
let it be remembered around here. I'm the one who
called them to be a two loss team going into Dallas.
I'm the one who told you unequivocally they will lose
against Florida last week. I'm the one who had Oklahoma

(25:30):
top ten preseason. I'm the one that picked a tier
to win the Heisman Trophy. What I'm trying to say
is I kind of think I'm the authority on this game.
Let's take a look at what the model thinks. Models
got the same thing FanDuel does. Texas minus one and
a half. And yet I'm telling you Texas is going
to win this game. They've got to have it. Oklahoma

(25:50):
would like to have it. Texas has got to have it.
The result will make little sense to the public. But
we are not deep enough into this season yet to
where what you have been is just what you always
will be. All Right, It is up to Texas, and
they got a very highly paid coaching staff to find
something this week. How do we fix this offensive line?

(26:11):
Play better? Your scholarship lineman at the University of Texas. Okay,
you're a seven figure position coach coordinator, multimillion dollar head
coach earner. You gotta find it. That's what they pay
you for. That's what the money's for. Well, that scene
and Madman was actually about Texas and their odds against Oklahoma.

(26:32):
I think Texas is going to win this game. If
I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But with these teams, I haven't
been a whole lot this year. Depressing again. I keep
depressing myself every time I look down and see what
we're about to talk about next. Hue from not nearby Newburyport,

(26:52):
Massachusetts said, everyone knows it's over. But how does the
James Franklin Penn State marriage actually end? Can you keep
this up for just a second, Bradley Immunity. Everyone knows
it's over. I don't know it's over. I just know
it sucks right now. I know it's terrible right now.
There was a time last year everyone knew it was

(27:12):
over with Billy Napier. Well, guess who the head coach
is at Florida at least for another week, A one
William Napier. And the reason is because what you thought
you knew, you didn't really know. You don't know. No
one's talked to James Franklin, who ultimately holds the cards
here unless one of you feels like cobbling together fifty
plus million dollars to buy him out. So here's what

(27:33):
I do not think you will ever see, at least
in the next year. I don't think you'll see a
breaking news headline Pete Nakosh reporting James Franklin has been
fired the classical way. No, because that requires a buyout
that is tens and tens and tens and tens and
tens of millions of dollars. And I don't think that's
gonna happen. So what we arrive at and the reason

(27:55):
I'm not going down this road with you on everyone
just knows it's inevitable is you don't know what James
Franklin thinks. It's almost one hundred percent in James Franklin's
court right now. It doesn't matter if one hundred percent
of the fans sentiment is the same. I'm on the
blue and white illustrated message boards just like you, guys. Okay,

(28:15):
I hear what they're saying. I got one on my
own staff right now that I can barely peel off
the floor. Producer Jesse is and I don't think we've
ever used this word apoplectic at the current situation with
Penn State football, not Penn State athletics. He's looking really
forward to wrestling in hockey this winter, but as for football,
it's tough. It's a tough scene right now around our office.

(28:38):
So I am well aware, well aware no many people
in that building. I'm well aware of how terrible it
is up there right now. But it doesn't matter if
one hundred percent of us look at it and say, oh,
he's got to go, or oh there's got to be
a big change or oh, they got to hit the
dump button. They're not hitting the dump button, first off,
because it's an expensive button to hit. And secondly, you

(29:00):
don't know how he feels. It would be up to
James Franklin. Now, if you somehow have breaking news, if
you somehow have insight that he also thinks it's past
the point of no return, well then we got a conversation,
because that's side B of the coin. But side b's
not going to talk about this right now. I don't
think James Franklin is really interested in peasing the media

(29:23):
or any fans with his thoughts about in the future
of his career. Northwestern Northwestern Northwestern Nitney Nation. You know
the tweet. So the money's tied up in other projects,
and it's too much money to be paying to buy
out a guy who's been winning like nine or ten
games per year up until now. Anyway, But I will
tell you this because I was thinking about this on

(29:44):
my drive end today. I've been thinking about this a
lot this week. I've been asking myself, how would I
feel if I were James Franklin. As close to the
situation as you can get, I am because I pay
as much attention to Penn State football as anyone not
in Penn State football can pay attention to it. So
how would I feel if I were James Franklin. Here's

(30:07):
how I feel if I were James Franklin. Bad. Okay,
there was a reason this year had to be the year.
Remember the talk, this has got to be the year
because this is not a reload program. This is not
Ohio State. Ohio State won the title last year. But
you know what, if Ohio State had gotten beaten in
the semi finals, they'd have another title caliber team this year.

(30:29):
As you see, that is not Penn State. You've known,
if you're James Franklin or if you're me, you've known
this entire year. Twenty twenty six is probably going to
be a step back. I got a lot of veteran
presence on this team. I had a lot of guys return,
and we all geared up for this to be the year.
And I went and got Jim Knowles, and I mean,

(30:50):
I've got everything I've ever asked for. And I sat
there in Big ten media days and I said what
I said about this year being the year, And I
said it because I meant it. I said it because
I feel it. Obviously I was wrong. Twenty twenty six
isn't going to be any better. And I know that
even better than the outsiders because I know my program.
So I got to ask myself, have we soured on

(31:10):
each other? I know the outside world may have soured
on me, But if I'm James Franklin, I know how
I feel about the outside world, there could be there
could be a situation where I'm looking around and I'm saying,
you know what, I've done everything I know to do.
It hadn't turned out like I wanted to. But it's
not for lack of effort. I mean, I've put my
heart and soul into this. I've tried as hard as

(31:33):
I can. I've done everything I know to do. Did
it work out this year? It didn't. It didn't, but
it's not because of oversight. It's not because of lack
of effort. So if you guys think you can do better,
I don't need this anymore. Let's negotiate and reduce this
buy out and put me on a board of whatever
and get me vested in whatever to offset the cost,
and I'll be good financially, and then I'll step away

(31:56):
for a couple of years. See, I've been waiting on
a head coach to do this. James Franklin's in his
early fifties right now, and I'm telling you there's a guy,
whether it's James Franklin or someone else, there is going
to be a guy in his late forties, early fifties
who steps away from the sport for a couple of
years and does something that has rarely ever been done,
takes time to recharge in the middle of his career.

(32:21):
You could step away if you were James Franklin right
now for a couple of years. You could go do
TV if you wanted to. If I were James Franklin,
I'd do what I'd do. I just go travel every week.
I'd go to a game every weekend. He could tag
along with me if he wants to go to a
game every weekend. Observe as much of the country as
you can, see, as many people as you can, expose

(32:41):
yourself to, as many ideas as you can. Go do
some TV. No one's stock declines in football when they
do TV. Look at what Dan Mullen did. Dan Mullen
put the blueprint out there. Now he got fired, but
Mullin put the blueprint out there, he went and sat
in the studio in Bristol, Connecticut on ESPN, and he
sounded like a genius, because everyone who knows the game

(33:02):
sounds like a genius when all they have to do
is talk about the game, which, by the way, convinces
the future people in charge of hiring you that you're
the right man for their job down the road, because
those are athletic directors and boosters and board of trustee
members who themselves don't know football all that well. So
you sit on TV and you got all the answers,

(33:22):
and two or three years have gone by, and you've
sort of rewritten the history of how the time at
Penn State came to an end, and you've also socialized
behind the scenes what the James Franklin two point zero
plan would be. And your stock just continues to go up,
and you're sleeping eight hours a night for a couple
of years, and you're looking more and more attractive, and

(33:46):
you don't need to jump back in at the first
job that'll take you, so you can afford to take time,
be selective, and then voila, there it is. Now. That's
what I do if I were James Franklin. I don't
know that that's what he will do. That's what I
would do. You can't possibly know where his head is at, though,
I will tell you this, I don't think they're done
losing games this year. This sucks because I love James Franklin.

(34:08):
I love them so I wish it wasn't like this.
But I'm not in charge. This is not WWE. We
don't get to right the way it goes. They've already
lost two games. They still got to go to Iowa
night game at Kennick by the Way, at Iowa, at
Ohio State Indiana at home at Michigan State Nebraska. Tony
Rojas is out. They have not had the depth that

(34:30):
most of us thought they would have on this team
in general, but specifically at linebacker, like Rojas goes out
and it just like a rudderless ship. All of a sudden,
they're twenty ninth in total defense. I would imagine they
end the season worse than that. They're not done losing games.
I highly suspect they are two maybe three more losses coming.
So it's like an eight and four season at best now,

(34:53):
and then you'll have a bunch of conversations early December.
We'll see where it goes. It wouldn't surprise me. It
would not surprise me if there were a mutual parting
of ways. But anyone who thinks it's a foregone conclusion
that dude's about to get fired, I don't think has
any idea how money actually works in this economy or
any economy. They're watching us in Calgary, Alberta, Canada, Coral Gables, Florida,

(35:18):
and Hutchinson, Kansas. Appreciate you, guys. Let's get back to previewing.
These games. Got a good pace right now. Some in
the building thought that it would already be eight o'clock
by the time we got to the Florida Texas A
and M game. The hater's wrong again. Florida at Texas
A and M is the underrated game of the week.
It is Saturday night, seven o'clock Eastern on ESPN. Forget

(35:40):
the record for a second with Florida. Okay, we have
to be mature about this. I told you last week
they're going to beat Texas. No, no way. Have you
seen how they look. Yes, that's why I picked them,
because when you look really, really bad and then you
have a bye week, there's no incentive to continue doing
what you've done to look that bad. Really good coaching
staff down there, really dynamic roster. Well, they tried some

(36:01):
different things and it worked against Texas at home. Now
they've got to go on the road and face what
to this point this year has been a better team
in Texas A and M. If what clicked for Florida
last week is what Florida is going to be the
rest of the year, forget about their record. They're like
a top ten, top fifteen caliber team. This will be

(36:22):
a war. If what they were last week is just
a one off, A and M will win this game
by double digits and Napier will probably lose his job
in the near future. That's all that's on the line here.
But it matters what you are. It does not matter
what you have been like if I'm A and M.
This really matters when you define their strength of schedule,

(36:42):
which the committee is very unwilling to do sometimes. I
am firmly convinced that the pushback Florida gave Texas, the
effort Florida gave Texas last Saturday was equivalent to a
top ten team what you would expect from them, even
though Florida has been bad so far this year. It
doesn't matter what a team has been if they play

(37:05):
with their hair on fire against you, because the resistance
you're getting from them is that of a number seven team,
a number nine team, whatever. So if Florida balanced that
offense out, which I hope they would do, these teams
are kind of similar. It's just one's record looks a
lot better than the other. A and M has a
lot of positives here. Their top twenty five in defense,

(37:26):
but so is Florida. A and M's excellent as a
pressure team, but Florida's top twenty five there too. They
had five sacks last week. A and M good run
offense Florida. Their numbers for the year are bad, But again,
what did I see from Jaden Ball last week? I
saw him run in either twenty seven or twenty nine times.

(37:46):
I saw him top one hundred yards. So if that's
what they are moving forward, I don't really care what
their season totals say. I care what A and M's
going to face in this game Saturday. A and M's
top twenty and explosive plays Florida is not. But what
did they do last week? They ran the Ball, which
set dj lagway up for more catbuster plays forty plus
yards through the air, more catbuster plays than he had

(38:09):
the entire year combined to that point. So yet again,
what are we getting from Florida. Are we getting from
Florida what we saw against LSU or are we getting
from Florida what they showed against Texas Because that will
go a long way in determining whether this is a
dogfight or not. Does Florida profile as a legit offense?
That's really what I care about in this game, cause

(38:29):
or be cause. Notre Dame had some success against Texas
A and M. Texas A and M has improved defensively.
This is not like a top end, elite defensive unit.
Yet they have some elite players, but in totality, there's
still work to do here. Notre Dame had some success.
Jaden Baw twenty plus, Dallas Wilson explosive last week. He

(38:50):
was back. Remember, look Mississippi State last week had no
success whatsoever against Texas A and M. I look at
Jaden Ball, I just look at the offensive line Florida has.
I look at the talent that Baw is. I think
that he should and they should be able to run

(39:11):
it to a certain extent against anyone. So like I
got full respect for A and M, they should not
be able to shut you down. If A and M
earns the right to rush the passer, though, because they
are limiting the run on early downs, then I'm terrified
for Florida because the last time I saw them go
on the road, they turned the ball over five times.
It was five interceptions for DJ Lagway in Tiger Stadium

(39:35):
against LSU. That's why it's hard to have any confidence
in Florida here. I love what I saw last week
that wasn't on the road, and it was one time.
I got a really smart staff here that gets to
watch how you played that one time, and then they
get to throw their fastball at you, and they get
to throw a few wrinkles at you. And this is
a very vulnerable team at their best. This Florida team's

(39:56):
very vulnerable right now. A and M should be able
to or let me rephrase, I hope Texas A and
M can keep Marcel Reid and what I would call
honest spots this week. A and M had fifty one
carries for about three hundred yards. Last week against Mississippi, State.
So you're not gonna run it for three hundred, I

(40:17):
would suspect against Florida. But if you're having anywhere remotely
the kind of rushing success that you have had recently,
and you should have you hoped to have ran it
for two hundred against Auburn, by the way, then everything
is set up. And at that point, I mean, that's
why you went and got Mario Craver. That's when you
went and got Casey concepts. You owned because you're running

(40:38):
the ball good and of course that does what it
normally does to a defense, and then you're hitting the
cap busters instead of DJ Lagway, that should be there.
If I'm an A and M fan, that should be there.
I'm facing a really good defense, it should be there
because I think the same thing on my end that
Florida's think, and Florida's thinking, Hey, we can run it
on anyone if we do the right things. I'm thinking,

(40:58):
I can run and throw on anyone if I'm doing
it the right way. Keep an eye on the external
factors in this game. By the way, A and M
has not had to pay for being one hundred and
twenty third in the country in penalty yardage. Yet they
haven't had to pay yet Florida's fortieth, so maybe homefield
cancels that out. I don't know, we'll see. Neither of

(41:19):
these teams are great on third down either, so if
someone disproportionately wins third down, I would say that's a
pre padlock stat could be a good solid paper popper
on Sunday night. Let's take a look at what the
model thinks right now. At FanDuel A and M is
a seven and a half point favorite. The model has
A and M minus eight. There is a lot to

(41:40):
be said for being in desperation mode. I saw it
on display last week. Ironically, with one of these teams,
it is on display again, and I am I am
telling you I was high on Florida in the preseason
and they made me look bad. Wondering, Okay, is this

(42:01):
gonna be one of those situations where right when I
sell all my stock they click kind of like they
did last year. So I still have some hope held
out for Florida. Remember this is a three loss team,
one conference game, one conference loss, so mathematically like they're
still in everything. In relation to the SEC championship race.

(42:22):
I think the numbers a little bit too big. I
do believe that it is a bridge a little bit
too far from me to cross to pick Florida to
win this game. Out right. I've got A and M winning,
but I've got them winning a close game. So if
I'm picking it against the number, I'm taking Florida anything
above a touchdown. I do think A and M is
gonna find a way to edge them in this game.

(42:45):
And that's that. I do have some big, semi breaking news.
I'm gonna ahead and tweet it out. By the way,
where is it there? It is all right. So earlier
today someone came and asked me the same thing that
a lot of people have asked me or made a
request that a lot of you have made, including some
in my own social circle, and that is why is

(43:08):
there no baby gear? Why are there no onesies at
the Pate State Store? And the reason is because I
don't think like that. Okay, I'm not an expert in
this stuff, but it has occurred to us that a
ton of you have newborns in your lives and you
want to support the show, and you want to use
your infants as a billboard for the show. And I'm

(43:29):
all about it. I'm all about it. So I'm happy
to announce that in the last about twelve hours, our
team just put an entirely new room in the store.
So the Peate State Little Frights Collection is available. Look
at that. Look at that picture of me as a child.
I don't even know where we got that. It's unbelievable.

(43:50):
So you can go there right now, paystatematerial dot com.
We got the onesies there. That's the Pate State litl
Frights Collection, which is its own little separate mascot. We
just been sitting on it waiting to use it. But
we got Tea's over there, we got a little crew
neck over there. It's good stuff, goods, wholesome stuff. And
I don't know, sorry, I didn't think about it earlier.

(44:11):
I'm sorry. No one in the building suggested it to me.
So I just want the credit. I don't want the blame.
I've told you guys had a million times. Let's continue
more game previews. Oh boy, we got a big game
in the Big Ten this week, Michigan at usc Saturday,

(44:32):
seven thirty Eastern kick on NBC. That's four thirty Pacific stats.
And Thenfoe tells me this was an excellent game last year.
I can't remember where I was. I was not at
the game. I remember watching it on whatever field I
was on twenty seven twenty four, Michigan ends up winning it.
It was a late fourth quarter game. They ran for
two hundred and ninety yards on usc Last year they

(44:55):
had touchdown runs of fifty three yards and forty one yards.
They had an their sixty three yard run that set
up the game winner. So basically a copy paste of
this season. Michigan pound pound explosive. That's kind of their
ground game. So pre padlock stat here, Michigan number two
right now in runs of forty plus. They're number one

(45:16):
in the country in runs of fifty plus. We should
just animate Justice Haines run and left to right on
the bottom of the screen. That's what it looks like us.
He has not allowed those this year. They haven't faced
this kind of player. They haven't faced this kind of
ground game yet this year. So all that last year
happened without a legit passing threat at quarterback from Michigan. Famously,

(45:40):
they chose, well, they didn't choose. Nature kind of dictated
that Michigan was void of the forward pass. Last year.
They still somehow had a decent season this year. They
don't have any wide receiver depth to speak of. Okay,
they're wide receivers are It's a chronically underachieving rum for
them right now. But they got a future star at quarterback,

(46:02):
so Bryce Underwood at the very least, you have to
respect and you have to respect his ability to throw
the ball. So if you ran it on me last
year without a competent quarterback and now you got one
that's emerging, yeah, I folded physically against you last year.
Let's see if I've upgraded. I had a test against Illinois,
I failed it. Let's see if I passed the test

(46:25):
at home. You know, travel's been an issue in the
Big Ten. It's one of the things I'm banking on.
If i'm USC, you got to come all the way
over here. Do you see what happened with Penn State
last week? And then Michigan is like, please don't make
that comparison. You know that's a bad faith comparison, and
USC's like, yeah, we know, we'll see you Saturday. USC
versus a legit Big Ten defense, What do we think

(46:48):
does the production scale? Because jade Miov is throwing it
for over three hundred yards per game. I love him.
I think Lincoln Riley loves him about as much as
any quarterback he's had since he's been at USC. Does
the production scale though? Does it scale Michigan Number seven
versus the run? They're only fifty ninth against the past.

(47:08):
They faced Oklahoma Materi in Oklahoma had some success against them.
Dion Burks seven catches over one hundred yards. Look all
due respect to Dion Burks, I love that guy. USC
when they're at their best probably got two better than him.
Makai Lemon is just insane. Jacobe Lane when he's fully
able to go, also pretty good in his own right. JayR.

(47:30):
Hill is a really good corner from Michigan. Behind him,
I don't know that they have established guys that I
just love in one on one situations, especially if USC's
receiver corps is able to flex here. But again, that's
pending that it scales against what will be the best
competition that they have faced to date. USC can pressure

(47:54):
if they limit the run. They're a top twenty five
pressure rate team. Danton Lynn defensive coordinator there one of
the best hires Lincoln Riley's ever made. I'm still trying
to round out his personnel, but they could do some
things here. The only other game that Michigan's really played
like this would have been against Oklahoma, and Oklahoma got

(48:14):
after Bryce Underwood a little bit. They harassed him a
little bit. Look, please don't misunderstand what I just said.
What I did not say is, Hey, this USC defense
kind of like Oklahoma. I didn't say that. I said
in terms of ability to pressure you, that collection that
USC has talent wise probably topped only by Oklahoma. As

(48:35):
far as what you've seen so far this year, I
would say that including Nebraska. So the Michigan travel thing,
I don't know how to quantify that. That's why I'm
not talking about it a whole lot. I'm kind of
on the fence in this game. Now. If you're a
Michigan fan, you think you know what's about to happen
because you think, uh uh oh, here he goes. Is

(48:57):
he gonna do it again? Is he gonna do it again?

Speaker 4 (49:00):
Me?

Speaker 1 (49:00):
In my eyes for the first time, I can tell
you I have learned a lesson, and in this case,
I haven't forgotten it. Roll it Bradley. I had an opportunity.

Speaker 4 (49:11):
I had an opportunity to learn from my mistakes, but
I just made another and I picked against Michigan again
and they proved me wrong again. So kids don't try
and make a living picking against Michigan. That was me
at Nebraska just two or three short weeks ago.

Speaker 1 (49:32):
I'm not doing it. Let's take a look at what
the model thinks. Model has got USC minus one Fanduels
got USC minus two and a half. That's right. For
those of you who are unfamiliar with how betting works,
USC's favored to win this game. Not here, not here,
not until they prove it. If I'm going to be
proven wrong, I'm going to be proven wrong by the

(49:53):
more physical Michigan team not finding a way. I'm going
to be proven wrong by USC not being leaned on
by the Lincoln Riley attack finally working in one of
these moments. I had a lot of reasons. Guys. Look,
if you left it up to the old the JP
one point zero, I would have picked the USC in

(50:15):
this game. I am not one point zero anymore. I've learned.
It did something to me the last time I picked
against Michigan and I lost, for like the thirty seventh time.
I have a Michigan problem, and this is obvious. I've
gone to classes on Tuesday nights. I am taking steps
to correct my Michigan problem. I'm taking the Wolverines to win.
Do not embarrass me, Do not embarrass me. Big night here,

(50:40):
big night. And that is because we are not doing
the JP pole tonight. We're doing the Commissioner's poll. I
am going to tweet that out right quick. There we go,
the Commissioner's poll, suspiciously dropping on a Tuesday night. What
is the commissioner's poll? These are rankings, not to be
confused with a JP poll. No, this is not where
I sit there, and I tell you, oh, these are

(51:01):
power ratings. Now they are generated by flex Power. Our
friends at flex Power do generate the Commissioner's pull. But
these are rankings, ladies and gentlemen. This is actually how
I would fill out my ballot if I voted in
the AP if if this is how I would align
the teams if I were on let's say the College

(51:23):
Football Playoff Committee. Again, huh, but let's take a look
at number twenty five through twenty one. I've got Utah
at number twenty five. I've got Nebraska at twenty four. Now,
the AP does not have Nebraska ranked. I ask why.
It's an open ended question. Anyone could hit me up
from the AP. Why why Nebraska not ranked? I got

(51:47):
Arizona State twenty three, USF twenty two, in Memphis twenty one.
Now the AP still has FSU ranked at twenty fifth.
I think it's because they got back in the game,
laid against Miami and it looked closer than it was. Look,
I tapped out when it was twenty eight to three,
and I was there, so I mean, I honestly think

(52:08):
Miami started loading up the bus when they were up
twenty three or twenty eight to three as well. I
don't think FSU's top twenty five right now. For me,
it's not like they're fiftieth. But I don't have them
up there. But look, I did some digging. The AP
has Texas twenty seven, Penn State twenty eight, and Nebraska thirty.

(52:29):
I got Nebraska ranked right now. I got them at
twenty four. But even if you don't like, who in
their right mind has still not learned their lesson on
this Texas and Penn State. It is October seventh, neither
of them have a P four win. Yet what are
we doing other than drugs. What are we doing. Nebraska's
beaten Cincinnati, They've beaten Michigan State. They're only losses to

(52:51):
Michigan close in Nebraska. Unlike USA for Vandy or something.
The Nebraska logo actually has relevant nationally. It has a
little cachet with these people. Sad, let's go twenty through fifteen.
Gimme Iowa stayed at twenty. I know the AP dropped
them are pretty good ways. I got Cincinnati at nineteen,

(53:13):
Illinois at eighteen, Virginia seventeen, Michigan sixteen. Now you may
be looking at some of these teams like Brigham Young.
I don't have Brigham Young ranked right now. That's because
of who they have played. Their best wins Colorado, But
it doesn't matter because they've got everything in front of them.
So like, if they keep winning, I'll rocket them up,
like they play Arizona this weekend. Just keep winning, they'll

(53:35):
rock it up. Tennessee's at fifteen, and this is where
it gets a little interesting. Commissioner's poll versus ape Pole.
I've got Vanderbilt at fourteen, but you see I had
Vanderbilt properly ranked last week. Unlike the AP. I've not
been looking for reasons to keep Vandy out. I've treated
Vanderbilt the same as I would treat LSU. So I

(53:58):
looked at it and said, if LSU had gone to
Blacksburg and dominated Virginia Tech, if they went to South
Carolina and dominated South Carolina, if they had the same
resume that but I just switched their logo, I would
have had Vandy top ten last week. So then what
did they do? They went to Alabama and they lost. Well,

(54:18):
the AP dropped them all the way to twenty. I
dropped them about the same number of spots, but I've
only got them at fourteen. I still think they fit
in very nicely in this little group of SEC teams.
I've got LSU thirteen, Georgia twelve, Missouri eleven Notre Dame.
You'll notice I want to take this opportunity to say

(54:40):
I don't have Notre Dame ranked. That's because Notre Dame's
body of work is what it is. They've lost two
games now. Those two losses are against teams that most
of these teams would lose to. That's not my fault.
I didn't make the schedule. I'm going off your body
of work. I think Notre Dame. I mean their best
win right now. They've played an art Arkansas, a team
that fired their coach afterwards. They played Boise good Win

(55:04):
last week. Same thing with Brigham Young, only Notre Dame's
got two losses. Keep winning and you'll keep climbing. But
I'm not putting you there because of how I would
power rate you, because that's what the JP pole is for.
And I'm not putting Notre Dame in here because of
what I think they will do. This is not a projection,
it's a reflection. Great T shirt idea, Alex. She's watching right, Jesse.

(55:27):
So yeah, if you keep winning, you'll climb. I'm not
going to preemptively bump you up. That's what got us
in trouble in the first place. Kind of voted you
up before you had played a game, and then, unlike
the AP, I was a little quicker to drop you.
But yeah, let's go top ten here. I still got
Georgia Tech in the top ten. I've got him at
number ten, Indiana number nine. Indiana is headed to Oregon.

(55:48):
They could rocket up this thing if they beat Oregon. Okay,
we got Alabama number eight, So you'll notice there's a
little separation. Alabama I think is the highest rated or
highest ranked one loss team. Yeah, so I got Bama
at eight. Notice Bama is a little bit ahead of
these other SEC teams like twelve, thirteen, fourteen, fifteen. So
there's this collection of one loss SEC teams in the

(56:12):
teams and Bama's a little bit ahead of them. That's
just because Alabama has more quality wins. They got to
win over Georgia. The Wisconsin game we didn't count so much,
but they just beat Vandy. We had Vandy top ten
last week. So that's two top ten wins for Alabama.
So yes, they lost against Florida State, but their resumes
still boost them. I think above and beyond even an

(56:33):
undefeated Indiana right now, although that could change this weekend.
Texas Tech number seven is incredible. Oklahoma six, like I
think the top of the AP right now, I think
we align pretty closely with I got from five to
one Ole, miss A and m Oregon. I've got Ohio
State number two. I've got Miami number one. I don't care.

(56:54):
I'm not going to fight anyone on that. If you
want to flip them, flip them. I just think I
think Miami has better wins. They've beaten Notre Name, Florida,
Florida State, and USF All of those teams have been
ranked for US or are ranked for US right now.
Ohio State's got the Texas win and to a lesser degree,
the Washington win. So if you believe in the defending

(57:16):
champ needing to lose before they lose the top spot,
I'm fine with that. Put Ohio State number one. I
got Miami number one. But I will say this, talked
about the Little Freights collection earlier. I personally now this
is me selfishly. I was talking to our team earlier
today and said, why do we not have an eye
voted shirt for the Commissioner's poll, And they made me

(57:38):
one and then they put it in the store as well.
I had this made for me, but they took the
added step of putting it in the store. So like,
if you want the Commissioner's pole shirt, very election season
vibes off of it, it's there right now. Paystatemterial dot com.
And there's the QR code. If you there, you go
me me get out of the way if you trust
QR codes. But that's a good looking shirt. So I've

(58:00):
gotten one on the way like five actually on the
way from myself. It's a loaded weekend. I'm about to
get right back to predicting games. It is a loaded weekend.
We couldn't even fit all the games in the show tonight,
so we're gonna have to do some Thursday. If you're
looking to go to games this weekend, many many of
you DM me about this, So here you go. Pay attention.
If you're going to games this weekend and you're like me,

(58:22):
and you wait until last minute to buy tickets, you
seat geek because you're gonna have to use the secondary
market anyway. You seat geek on your on your checkout,
make sure you enter the code paid ten pat E
one zero. That's gonna get you twenty percent off of
any orders two hundred dollars or less. And it's gonna
get you twenty dollars off any order two hundred dollars

(58:43):
or more. The way I look at that is, if
you're going anyway, if you're gonna have to spend the
money anyway, spend less of the money. Therefore keep more
of your money. It's economics. At payt State, we make
it very simple, very simple. I'm gonna have to moysurize
the lips. That's not part of the sea E Creed.
That's just I had dry lips. All right, let's continue

(59:05):
another game prediction here. I got best bets coming up
as well. We're gonna add two more rob and Noudle
Express is hot right now, ladies and gentlemen, very hot,
very hot. Auburn at Georgia is going to be so
uncomfortable Saturday. It's uncomfortable for Georgia because it's a tough
place to go into. It's uncomfortable for Auburn because they've
already got a couple of losses and they can't afford

(59:28):
to lose another one. Remember Texas Florida last week. Texas
is going into the swamp. Florida's coming off a bye.
It's must win mode for Florida and they did. That's
the exact same spot Auburn's in here. It's must win mode.
They've got to find a way. They are only a
three and a half point dog, Or to put another way,

(59:48):
Georgia the dogs are actually a three and a half
point favorite. Is that line low? Is that spread low
to you? It's gonna get really bad here if Auburn
loses I'm just telling you I need to mask what
I'm saying. Like it, like Hugh Freeze's jobs kind of
on the line. In this game, it could be on
the line. So did anything get fixed? Doesn't matter if
you have a bye if nothing got fixed. Auburn ear

(01:00:12):
muffs to the children down in Lee County. Auburn is
one hundred and eighth in total yards per game. They're
one hundred and fourteenth in pass yards per game. They're
one hundred and eighteenth in explosive plays. There are one
hundred and eighteenth on third down. It's like a Sarah
MacLaughlin special on Tuesday. They're the most sacked team in FBS.
Oh sad So Georgia is thirteenth against the run, they're

(01:00:34):
only eighty sixth against the pass. So that goes back
to my question, did anything get fixed? Once upon a time,
we were out on the West Coast. We were watching
Jackson Arnold at a lait eleven. Thought he's going to
be the next great thing. He has played behind a
very very poor performing offensive line. He himself has performed
poorly this year. I don't think there's one singular culprit

(01:00:58):
to why they're the most sacked team in college football.
I think everyone is to blame. Did you fix anything?
Florida used their bye week to fix things. In Florida's case,
they looked and said, oh, wait a second, We've got
perfectly functional parts here. We got a really good tailback.
Let's just lean on him. In other words, Florida had

(01:01:20):
things that would work, they just weren't using them properly.
Does Auburn have things that'll work? That's the question, because
if not, you don't really have anything to fix. Now,
if you did fix something, you can have success through
the air against Georgia. Tennessee showed that. Alabama showed that.
I'll talk about that more in a second. Georgia's pass

(01:01:40):
game needs to jump them right here. Georgia should never
let this game be in doubt. Don't even let it
get pulled into the fourth quarter. You've been there before.
You know what this place can become. If you let
Auburn have life in the second half, you can be
the most well rounded offense that Auburn has faced so
far this year. You can be that A and M
struggled against them, so Georgia can be that. That's why

(01:02:04):
you went to the portal that's why you overhauled this
receiver room. You didn't overhaul this receiver room to do
what Penn State's done, going a shell. You went and
got them so you can use them. You went gunner
stocked them, threw the ball well against Tennessee. So now
you go on the road again, hostile environment. All the
stuff in the hype videos again, use those guys. Because
the run games back. They're nearly top twenty five in

(01:02:27):
the country. So all the concerns about whether Georgia would
run the ball successfully again this year, they have, and
offensive line hadn't even been great, but they have. So
Auburn's passed these in the eighties, you should be able
to have success through the air against them. You know
what quiets a crowd. Seventeen to three, That quiets a crowd.
But I think Auburn's going to go down firing here

(01:02:49):
because I talked about the wide receiver talent Georgia has, Buddy,
they don't have what Auburn has. Auburn's got cam Coleman.
And if Jackson Arnold has time, and he may, because
George's pass rush has not gotten home a lot this year.
It has been very much something that's been absent from
the Georgia defensive profile. If they can't get home. If

(01:03:10):
this is finally the moment where Jackson Arnold has given
a little time to operate, they got to feed cam Coleman.
He had three catches versus OU, he had four versus
A and M. He needs to have a dozen plus
targets in this game because he could really abuse this
Georgia's secondary. He's not the only one they have. Singleton
could do a lot of business here as well. Cam

(01:03:32):
Coleman's different. Cam Coleman's the one you look at and
you say, maybe something more than just human, maybe a
little alien DNA mixed in there. You don't get the
ball to it doesn't matter, So get the ball to
him again. This is advanced stuff. I don't expect everyone
to be able to keep up here. But when you've
got a freak show at receiver and you got a

(01:03:55):
secondary that's vulnerable, you just throw the ball to the
freak show. Really good axes and no stuff here. If
I need to slow down, let me know if I'm
losing anyone. The environment's not gonna swallow Georgia. You gotta
beat Georgia. You watched them against Tennessee. We were there
when they played Tennessee zero false starts. So as much
as I respect Jorden Hair Stadium at night, that's not

(01:04:18):
what's gonna beat Georgia here. You got to and that
wide receiver group for Auburn should be a huge mismatch
against this Georgia secondary. Frankly, I think the Georgia wide
receiver corps is a mismatch against the Auburn secondary. And
the total is only forty five and a half. Huh.
I'm not touching the total. I'm just saying I gave
a good solid argument for the over there. What matters

(01:04:40):
here doesn't matter? Does the bye week matter? Let's take
a look at what the model thinks about this game.
FanDuel's got Georgia minus three and a half right now.
We think Georgia should be a bigger favorite. Some of
these lines this week are baiting you. We don't think
this is one of them. I don't think this is
Florida two point zero. I don't think Auburn's gonna come
out of the by and look totally. I think george

(01:05:01):
is gonna win the game and cover. They're gonna be disciplined,
they're not jumping off sides a ton, or they're not
false starting a ton. They're not shooting themselves in the foot,
not a ton of drops like they had last year.
Just you gotta beat Georgia straight up. I know Auburn
played A and M close, they played Oklahoma close. And
by the way, if you don't understand this point spread,

(01:05:22):
that's really what's in play here. Desperate team at home
off of by jobs are on the line down there.
For all of how bad Auburn's looked, you gotta remember
they did play A and M close on the road.
They did play Ou close on the road. You figure
they come home desperate against the Georgia team that's already
been beaten once and they needed forty to win in Knoxville.

(01:05:45):
They're a vulnerable team. It's not a vintage Georgia team.
That's why that line is so low. I think Georgia's
fairly desperate as well here. Remember they've already got a
conference loss under their belt too, So I think george
is gonna find a way to win and cover here.
If you don't, you can go over to FanDuel right now.

(01:06:05):
That line's available. FanDuel the exclusive odds provider of this show.
I do have big news. We're going to Missouri this weekend.
You know who else is going to Missouri. Not this weekend,
but December first. FanDuel available in Missouri December first, and
so for those friends of ours in Branson and Jefferson

(01:06:25):
City and Columbia and any other city in Missouri. I'm
a big fan of La Plata, Missouri personally, good good
rail watching up there. I believe the Marcelline Subdivision runs
through there. Good stuff. And anyway, I'm losing ninety nine
percent of the audience. If you're in the state of Missouri,
come December first, it's on and new customers up there,

(01:06:48):
you will find out what winning three hundred dollars in
bonus bets is all about. Like, you'll sign up and
this is a little ways away, but if you sign up,
you bet five dollars, they just give you three hundred
dollars in bone bets and in your case in Missouri,
it won't even matter if you win or not. How
great is that? Now? As for the rest of you,
you also have that opportunity new sign ups FanDuel dot

(01:07:12):
Com forward slash Josh Pate bet five dollars on anything,
and if it hits you get a get three hundred
dollars in bonus bets. You do need to win, though,
so make sure you win. Pick a sure thing like
Penn State money line last week against UCLA. Pick a
sure thing.

Speaker 5 (01:07:27):
Must be twenty one plus and present in select states
for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or eighteen
plus and present in DC. First online real money wager
only five dollars first deposit required. Bonus issued as non
withdrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions
apply see terms at sportsbook dot FanDuel dot com. Gambling
problem call one eight hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot

(01:07:49):
com slash RG call one eight eight eight seven eight
nine seventy seven seventy seven, or visit CCPG dot org
slash chat in Connecticut, or visit nd gambling Help dot
org in Maryland Hope is he? Visit Gambling Helplinema dot
org or call eight hundred three two seven fifty fifty
for twenty four to seven support in Massachusetts or call
one eight seven seven eight hope NY or text hope

(01:08:10):
N why in New York.

Speaker 1 (01:08:11):
Speaking of the Rominuel Express, I've got two more best
bets to add, coming off our best weekend of the
season so far. I do need to make one correction.
One of you called me out on this, and shocker,
you were right. When we were in our pre production
pre show meeting Sunday night, Nebraska was minus four and
a half at fanduels, so I put Nebraska minus four

(01:08:33):
and a half on the show. But unbeknownst to me,
the line moved before the show, so Nebraska minus five
and a half is what was available. We still like
it at that number, so let's go Nebraska minus five
and a half. We won't cheat you on that. Nebraska
minus five and a half against Maryland Northern Illinois plus
one and a half, we were on them and that

(01:08:55):
number was true. We are going to add two more here,
give us Kansas State second week in a row. We're
riding the Wildcats Kansas State plus one and a half
versus TCU, and I think for the first time this year,
we're gonna take real money and betted on Stanford football.
This is not David Shaw's Cardinal. Stanford plus nineteen and

(01:09:18):
a half ATU SMU coming off an ACC Championship game appearance.
They haven't played many high profile games this year. Have
you watched SMU? The model has and it thinks nineteen
and a half a few too many points there, So
Stanford plus nineteen and a half. There you go. Now,
the reason the show didn't go two hours tonight is
because we took some of the games we were gonna

(01:09:39):
preview and we moved it to Thursday. So Thursday's show
figures to be jam packed as well. But we let
the staff off a little easy tonight. Guys. It's a
very volatile time in college football right now. A lot
is about to change for a lot of people. I'm
telling you to strap in because it's going to get

(01:09:59):
really The seat belt sign is on. It's gonna get
really bumpy, and we're gonna be here for it all.
All right, We'll be back Thursday night. Until then. For
producer Jesse, for director Bradley, I'm Josh Bate, Take care,
have a great middle of your week, and God bless.

Speaker 5 (01:10:30):
Must be twenty one plus and present in select states
for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or eighteen
plus and present in DC first Online Real money wager
only five dollars first deposit required. Bonus issued as non
withthrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions
apply see terms at sportsbook dot FanDuel dot com. Gambling
problem call one eight hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot

(01:10:51):
com slash RG call one eight eight eight seven eight
nine seventy seven seventy seven, or visit CCPG dot org
slash chat in Connecticut, or visit and D gamblinghelp dot
org in Marland. Hope is here, Visit gambling helplinem dot
org or call eight hundred three two seven fifty fifty
for twenty four seven support in Massachusetts. Or call one
eight seven seven eight Hope n Y. Or text Hope

(01:11:12):
n Y. In New York