Week 7 Upset Alerts + Belichick Disaster & New JP Poll

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
We were just talking before the show, you know, killing
some time as you do, and Producer Jesse, of all people,
presented what I think qualifies as a Keystone nightmare scenario
as we let to call it around here. Pennsylvania, of course,
the Keystone state. And it was brought to my attention
that Dodgers and Phillies are underway as we speak on
this Tuesday, October Thursday, October ninth, the our Ower twenty

(00:36):
twenty five. We have a world where Philly could get
eliminated from the Major League Baseball playoffs, and then Penn
State could go three and out on their opening drive Saturday,
and a lot of that would overlap in terms of
fandom and it could just get really toxic. And I
don't even want to present the scenario where in Northwestern
scores on their opening possession Saturday, Ucla did. Anyway, he

(01:00):
happy times elsewhere, we're jam packed. We're high atop a
sunny downtown Nashville, Tennessee. I've got upset alerts. I've got
a whole stock of them here. And it turns out
last week we only put a two on that Ucla
Penn State game needed to go a little higher. We
needed to be a little bit more on guard for
that one. So we've got the antenna up this week.

(01:23):
No stone left unturned on the upset alert concern meter.
Many of you, who I don't think listen to the
whole show the other day have pointed out, shame on you.
You left Indiana and Oregon out of the Tuesday show.
Well I know that. I know that because I mentioned
it thrice on the Tuesday Show and I said, we
will do it on the Thursday show. And there it is,

(01:44):
paper thump, It's right there in the pack of them.
We're gonna do it tonight. I'm gonna talk one time
only about Bill Belichick, basically to take a victory lap.
And anyone who ever doubted that this was going to
be anything other than a disaster, just take notes tonight.
That's all we're gonna do. We're gonna take notes tonight.
JP poll tonight, got kublic on the show Tonight. We
got a Jampack show. They're watching us in Phoenix, Arizona, Halifax, Nova,

(02:07):
Scotia up in Canada, tuned in Slidel Louisiana, Denton, Texas,
North Texas hosting USF Tomorrow Night. Speaking of Tomorrow Night,
gonna be one of those classic Friday night lines tomorrow night.
I know we've been doing some of the late afternoon stuff,
some of the late afternoon Friday shenanigans. Not tomorrow. Tomorrow,
we're gonna be in Missouri. I don't know if you

(02:29):
saw Coach Coach Drink did extend the invitation delayed, But
we appreciate the invitation to work out at Missouri. So
we'll fly up there. We'll work out at Missouri tomorrow.
We'll we'll do all the things we need to do,
we'll see who we need to see. But we will
be in a hotel room, poorly lit, late at night
Tomorrow night. I'll tweet out and I will ig out

(02:50):
the exact time. But Friday Night Lines will emanate from
Missouri tomorrow night. And the model is hot. Rominill Express
is red hot. Right now. You don't want to miss
that at Josh pay CFB in case you haven't been
following already. So I wanted to. I gotta itch on
my nose. Oh, all right, here we go now, I'm good.
I want to get into a lot of stuff tonight.

(03:11):
Normally we leave with the upset alerts. But if I
didn't talk about this to lead the show. I was
gonna let it get buried. So I just want to quickly.
I want to quickly discuss this whole Bill Belichick thing
because it is a disaster, and anyone who tells you otherwise.
And I don't even care if there's a Twitter graphic,
which I know we got one of yesterday, I don't
care what they say. No vote of confidence is going
to change my mind. This is a disaster. He'll be

(03:34):
gone at the latest at the end of this season.
I have no doubt about that. Yesterday the report started
to circulate in case you haven't been paying attention that, hey,
there were some rumblings this thing with Belichick. It may
be on rocky ground. Yeah, absolutely it is. Oh no, no, no, no,
not just that it could be over. They're negotiating or
reduced buyout. Yeah, I think all that was happening. I

(03:57):
think it is happening. I don't know when it's gonna happen,
but look, we got the graphic yesterday. North Carolina Athletics
had to put out a statement Bill Belichick' said I'm
fully committed to u NC football, and Bubba Cunningham, the
athletic director, there Hey, coach Belichick has the full support
of the Department of Athletics and the university. Translation, it's over.

(04:19):
We are screwed. So yes, it's gonna end when I
don't know, kind of irrelevant. They're terrible in this year,
no matter who's the interim coach or the current coach.
The most shocking part of this whole thing is not
that they've been bad. That's the least shocking part of
this whole thing. The shocking part to me kind of twofold.

(04:40):
Number one, there were people that thought this would work,
and number two, enough of those people have control of
North Carolina Athletics that they made the higher because I
can promise you one thing. The athletic director there that
had to put out that statement was in one of them.
I don't think Bubba Cunningham really wanted to go this route,
But in the end, why would you let an athletic

(05:03):
director make a hire when we can have overreaching board
of trustee members and people with deep pockets and great relationships,
and we can use intermediaries and we can apply logic
that has zero place in a coaching search to make
a coaching decision. And that's college football in a nutshell
too often, and it was the North Carolina hiring process.

(05:26):
So the most shocking part of this whole thing to
me has been North Carolina ended up looking out for
the best interest of Bill Belichick instead of the best
interest of North Carolina Athletics, and up to this very moment,
every second that guy remains the head coach there. That's
what they're doing. I sound like I have some kind
of acts to grind against Bill Belichick. I have no animosity,

(05:50):
no ill will towards him, towards Michael Lombardi, towards anyone there.
I don't know them, I've never met them. It is
not about that. And I don't blame Belichick one bit.
It's not his fault. He got offered the job. He
didn't offer himself the job. So someone offers me ten million,
I'm probably accepting whatever it is they're offering me to

(06:11):
do if I'm a coach. So I'm not blaming Bill Belichick.
He just happens to be the guy they hired, the
guy who was very ill qualified for the job. And
I know good and well that there were some quality
candidates out there that may have been somewhat attracted to
the North Carolina job, which has always been viewed as
kind of a low key sleeping giant, maybe not quite

(06:32):
a giant, but very underutilized, very underleveraged. All those quality
candidates got scared away. I know because I know some
of them. They got scared away from the process because
at any given time you couldn't even get a straight
answer as to who was running the search. That sounds
like something you would find in the SEC but yet
it happened at North Carolina. So the saddest part of

(06:55):
this is it wasted a season for North Carolina. And
if you're fifty eight years years old, you could look
at that and you could say, oh, well, on the
year fifty nine of my life. But what if you're
a junior. What if you're a senior there you only
get four years to attend said university. I'm not even
talking about the players. I'll get to them in a second,
but just if you're a student, it's kind of a

(07:17):
crapshoot anyway as to what kind of experience you get
from an athletics perspective in the years that you're enrolled
at a school. So it burned one of their years.
And then when it comes to the players. The players
are the ones who really get the shaft here, and
they burn one of their few years that they have
to play college football on this and you will never

(07:41):
Now this is where I will be a little critical
of the way things are being handled there. Dude, no
one there cares about the players right now. I know
everyone says so in their statement. Let me put that,
let me put that back in the bottle. There are
people at North Carolina who care about the players. I
don't think the front facing members of North Carolina Athletics

(08:01):
and football right now are all that concerned about the players.
So there's that the staff gets set back. So anyone
that's on that staff right now, they kind of get
that stinch of having been part of that one and
done season, which it absolutely will be of Belichick at
North Carolina. But number two is it shows how broken
the process is and it scared legit candidates off. And

(08:24):
so now you're gonna have another coaching search there, and
I wonder how that one operates, and I wonder who's
allowed to make the higher there. I hope we have
put this sentence to bed that I'm about to say.
I've never said it seriously on this show. I've said
it mockingly, but many people have said it serious, and
that is college football is pretty much like the NFL. Now,

(08:45):
can we please, at least if we learn no other
lesson from this disaster, put to bed the idea that
college football is like the NFL. College football is like
the NFL in that the field dimensions are the same,
and we play with a football, and we do score
in threes and sevens, and the equipment's roughly the same.

(09:07):
It's eleven on eleven out here, Yes, it is. That
is about where the similarities end when it comes to
how you win, how you build a talent roster, how
you have to navigate things like a salary cap, how
you have to deal with agents, how uneven the footing is,
competitive landscape style in college versus the NFL. None of

(09:31):
that stuff's the same. So here we are. Here, we
are fresh off of coaching search at North Carolina, getting
ready for yeah, a coaching search coming up. I don't
know when, not too far down the road. Quick Trip
would never would, never, ever ever be caught dead making
a hire like this. They wouldn't. They make good decisions.

(09:52):
They made one in Westchester, Ohio, so much so that
we're going to celebrate it a second time tomorrow. Jesseyah
on the tenth right. So this is worth the paper pop.
I think if you're watching or listening anywhere near Cincinnati,
there is a little town, great people, I'm told in
this community, west Chester, Ohio. It's about oh thirty minutes

(10:12):
north northeast as the crow Flies, powered by Quick Trip,
and they're having a regrand opening tomorrow. Now you know
the rule around here. One of you has already preemptively
gone and done this, and your chalices on the way.
I've got five chalive supremacy to send randomly to any
of our viewers who attend the regrand opening of the
west Chester, Ohio Quick Trip tomorrow. There's going to be

(10:35):
a bouncy castle in the parking lot. People. I don't
know that I've ever said that about a Quick Trip
parking lot. And they got pretty much everything else. So
you can go get gas and trail mix and pizza
and colbrew on tap and have fun in the bounce castle.
Because I'm looking Jesse, and it doesn't say kids only,
don't know, it doesn't say it anywhere on my copy.
It does not say kids only in the bouncy castle. Now,

(10:57):
if Quick Trip Joe wants to text me before the
end of the show and put out a legal disclaimer,
no adults in the bouncy castle. Okay, but as of
now we are operating under the understanding that it's every
man for himself in the bouncy castle in the Westchester,
Ohio Quick Trip parking lot tomorrow. A lot of fun
should be had. I would keep security close by, though,

(11:23):
all Right, Upset Alert Concern meter off the charts last week.
This thing was generated by flex Power last week. It's
generated by flex Power every week. And you know what
got generated. What got generated was UCLA last week. And
I only put a two on the Upset Alert Concern
meter for that game. So I got to be extra
careful this week. So the first game we're going to

(11:43):
look at is Pitt at FSU FSU favored by ten
and a half. This is an early kickoff Saturday. Have
you watched Pitt this year?

Speaker 2 (11:53):
No?

Speaker 1 (11:54):
I see a lot of shakings of the heads. No
you have not. Well, they lost to West Virginia. They
lost to Louisville. That doesn't matter though, because they've benched
the QB. They brought in the backup last week and
they just rolled Boston College. So it's a new day
for pitt football. You know how much we love betting
on backup quarterbacks around here. FSU is reeling after the

(12:16):
Miami loss. This is an inflection point for the season.
Remember they started hting against Alabama. Well, now they've lost
two conference games in two consecutive weeks. What if they
need to throw to win here? Because Tommy Castellanos famously
now one in six when throwing for two hundred and
forty or more yards. It sounds very counterintuitive, I know,

(12:39):
but the thinking there is, well, if he's having to
throw a whole lot, that means things aren't going well
for Florida State and we frankly don't love putting him
in a spot at Boston College or here where he's
got to throw a lot. Guys, I'm nervous about this game.
So I'm going to put an eight and a half
on the upset Alert Concern scale. Now that's a recalibrated
scale after last week, because Ucla did an number to

(13:00):
the upset Alert Concern meter. Next up, Ohio State's only
favored by fourteen and a half at Illinois. Well, I'm
gonna be very disrespectful here because I don't see it.
Ryan Day is not gonna love this segment all that much.
But frankly, Ryan Day needs to get used to praise
because he's going to get a lot of it from us.
For me at least, then again, I never called for

(13:23):
his job, so I was kind of grading on the
Ryan Day scale. I was always praise worthy of him. Look,
it's possible the run defense for Ohio State is secretly vulnerable.
I don't know. If I'm trying to pick them apart.
I've got to use a very fine toothcomb, and if
I'm trying to find some path for Illinois. It feels
a little weird, to be honest with you, because there
are times where we'll have a game in the upset

(13:45):
alert concerned portion of the show where the spread's like twenty.
But I could really talk myself into the idea that
the upset could happen. This line's fourteen and a half,
and I just I have no idea really, short of
turnovers and special team scoring, how Ohio State loses this game.
I just don't see it. So maybe the run defense

(14:09):
is a little more vulnerable and Illinois has success there
and maybe in the limited possessions that Ohio State has,
maybe Julian saying they take something away from him. We
find out there's a flaw that hasn't been exposed in
his game. But what's Illinois specialty? I don't know. I
have no idea, So I'm putting a two on this.

(14:30):
It sounds disrespectful. Yes, that's the exact rating I put
on Ucla Penn State last week, So I I don't know. Man,
Maybe Luke Altmeyer goes full Niko Yamaliava, but Penn State
was dead Ohio State's not. So I have no idea
how this happens. I'm putting a two on it. Prove
me wrong, I guess. Prove me wrong. I've been labeled

(14:52):
a Buckeye hater this week, so secretly I'm probably rooting
for Illinois according to the internet, So prove me wrong.
Northwestern at Penn Oh my goodness, it's time, Jesse. Jesse,
he hears me. Penn State is favored by twenty two
and a half. Big deal. They were favored by Moore

(15:13):
last week. This might as well be a pickham. Northwestern
is terrible, so was Ucla. They hadn't led a single
second of the season, and then they didn't trail a
single second against Penn State. The last time Penn State
lost three consecutive games, when was it, everyone, It was
twenty twenty one. Now I have it on good authority,

(15:34):
good old fashioned gut feel here that the running back
rotation will change or the distribution of carries will change.
K Tron Allen should be toting the mail for Penn State,
and I think he will a lot more this week.
This could be a transitive property special though, because I
have it right here in front of me, we all

(15:54):
know how tried and true the transitive property is in
college football. More on that in a second. Northwestern, this
Northwestern team that Penn State is looking to rebound against
this weekend. They beat UCLA. Northwestern has done what Penn
State could not do. Friends, Northwestern already took UCLA down,
and now they walk into State College and it is

(16:16):
a toxic environment there. It is a powder keg. I
am telling you, I am telling you, I am telling you.
If Penn State goes three and out on the opening drive,
or god forbid, I don't even want to say it
out loud. If Northwestern scores on their opening drive, I
actually don't know what the scene would be. It would

(16:36):
be terrible. But if you don't believe in the transit
of property, I normally wait until about midway through the
season to introduce it. It's done tongue in cheek. But
you know what, if we can hook some people, if
we control some people with this, then why not. I
took it down the road a couple of miles to
the locker room Wednesday, sitting there with Will and Taylor,
and we were talking about another game. We were talking
about OU Texas, but I felt like, given the fact

(16:59):
that I'm sitting straight across from a former Michigan left tackle,
I need to explain the implications of oh you in
Texas as it relates to the Ohio State Michigan game
later down the road. And when you believe in the
transitive property, it can happen. This is what it sounded like.

Speaker 3 (17:16):
If Texas beats Oklahoma and Ohio State beat Texas and
Oklahoma beat Michigan, what does that mean for Ohio State Michigan?

Speaker 1 (17:24):
And what it means is buck eyes by ninety That's
what it means.

Speaker 4 (17:27):
There is no other way.

Speaker 3 (17:29):
Here's here's your problem. Oh there's therapy you went to
about having a Michigan problem. I got a Michigan problem
that has nothing to do with that.

Speaker 1 (17:38):
You're still.

Speaker 3 (17:40):
I feel more coming about Michigan now than ever be
in usc because you don't believe you're just saying it
because you said in the past.

Speaker 2 (17:46):
The transitive property states that if a first item relates
to a second item, and the second item relates to
the third item in the same way, then the first
item also relates to the third item in that same way.

Speaker 4 (17:56):
That's what I said.

Speaker 3 (17:57):
Yeah, that's exactly what I never thinking that the definition
is more canusing the way you framed.

Speaker 2 (18:00):
It to me, But there's there's nothing too like when
somebody throws a definition and then you check it and
that definition is the exact same as the Internet. To me,
it's like, oh, buddy, you operate at a different level.

Speaker 3 (18:10):
Yea, it's Francis Ellis on the pond.

Speaker 2 (18:12):
Yeah, like I could put definitions together just with a
you know, I can try to throw words at something
and be like, oh, that kind of makes sense, But
when it's spot on, a lot of respect for you, Josh,
I'm a texting sark, so.

Speaker 3 (18:23):
We your saying.

Speaker 1 (18:26):
It's a three and a half For me, the upset
alert concern meter is at a solid three and a half.
This is a gut check for a defense that gave
up forty two to UCLA last week. No Tony Rojas.
Apparently we don't have linebacker depth, Jesse tells me. This
is a recent development at Penn State. We just don't
have linebacker depth. I got misled on that, by the way.

(18:47):
I thought they did so three and a half. But
if they go three and out opening drive, this bumps
up to a five. If Northwestern scores on their opening drive,
this is a solid eight.

Speaker 4 (18:58):
We're in a world.

Speaker 1 (18:59):
Where anything could happen. Remember, the guardrails are off of
Penn State football right now, so there's no limit to
how far down the cliff you could tumble and crash.
Go Niitney Lyons. Next up, Arkansas, led by Bobby Patrino,
is going into Niland Stadium. What a fever dream of
a sentence. Tennessee's favored by twelve and a half. I've
already got some really really good ideas for what the

(19:23):
celebration graphic could be, what the phrase on the celebration
graphic could be. If Arkansas, when's this thing? I was
talking about it with our buddies over at Next Round
Live earlier this morning. Can you imagine Bobby Petrino and
the boys ride into NLAN, they pull the outright upset
and then Arkansas Football on the Twitter account just leans

(19:47):
fully into the joke of the thing, two words road rash,
and then they just ride out of there unbelievable cinema theater.
To do it, something wild's gonna have to happen, but
it may be possible because Arkansas has got a top

(20:07):
twenty passing offense, Tennessee pass defense in the one hundreds.
So what we're thinking there is, I'm pretty sure Tennessee's
gonna get theirs. They're off a buy, they're at home.
They're gonna get theirs. Arkansas could as well. How often
do we love betting on interim coaches on this show?
Because you never know what portion of a locker room
or an organization is galvanized because status quo has been broken,

(20:30):
you just never know. There's wild variants in each quarterback.
Taylor Green could blow up or he could implode. I'm
not gonna I'm not quite sure Joey Agilar is gonna implode,
but he could have a se he can have a
C game. We've seen his A game before. If he
plays his A game, they're gonna win. They may cover.
I'm gonna put a seven on this game. I think

(20:52):
it's gonna be low key, way more competitive than America
is ready to admit. I don't think most of America
even knows this game's happening. I think there are four
or five SEC games bigger than this one this week,
and no one's paying attention to this game except us.
And if my neck wasn't strained, I would pet myself
on the back right now. Lastly, another one we need

(21:13):
to be heads up about. Kansas goes to Texas Tech.
Texas Tech has been flawless virtually. They've won every game
by twenty four plus. You can't get your A game
every week. You're not gonna play at an A plus
level every week. And if they're gonna dip, this would
be the week because they got Arizona State on deck.

(21:34):
They're coming off that trip to Houston. It's a classic
let down look ahead sandwich spot, and I don't care
how much you guard against it. You also need to
understand your human Your team is full of humans and
Kansas peaked or started to peak at this time last year,
and I think they could do it again. Kansas, they
need to flip third down. The third down percentage is woeful.

(21:57):
They're one hundred and twenty seventh offensively, Tech Tech top
ten defensively. If that inverts, and remember it's just four
quarters that we're playing here, it's not a full season.
If that inverts. If there's just something off, something's a
little wobbly about Texas Tech Saturday, Kansas could scare them.
I'm putting a five on this game. I am not

(22:17):
overlooking this. I'm taking this dead serious. I think Kansas
in a one off, just like a one night only
type deal, Kansas could do this. They could push Texas Tech.
So I'm putting a five on it. Let's keep an
eye on that one. We just mentioned our friends at
flex Power. They generated that entire segment. Some would say
that any upset that happens in the sport kind of

(22:40):
is being generated by flex Power. But you don't just
have to believe in the upset, cause some of you
could be victimized by the upset. But you know what
you can believe in. You can believe any time the
power goes out, and it's gonna happen for every one
of you. Statistics show that one hundred percent of our
audience has, at some point in their lives gone without power. Statistics.

(23:01):
You can't argue with statistics. Did you have a backup generator?
The thirty three hundred I is just sitting over there
right now myflexpower dot com forward slash Josh Pate. They
are major partners of ours. They've watched the show for
a long time, and they have recently become major partners
of ours. So I appreciate them. You, unbeknownst maybe to

(23:21):
you have needs for their products in your life. Makes
it a whole lot simpler, makes it a whole lot
more fail safe. You won't get upset. It's a good line, Jesse.
We need to put that in. If we had a prompter,
we could put it in the prompter. You can avoid
your upset in your life by just heading over to
myflexpower dot com forward slash Josh Pap. I have in

(23:42):
my hand something that they said would not happen. I
didn't forget about this. We just delayed it forty eight hours. People,
Indiana is going to Oregon Saturday, three thirty Eastern twelve
thirty local kick. This is the CBS Game of the week,
which means our friends, including but not limited to Jennifer Dell.

(24:02):
I'm just mentioning her because I know she lives in
South Florida. Have flown to Seattle and then La and
now Eugene in back to back to back weeks. Who
we know what happened last year when Indiana went to
Ohio State, they were built up, built up, built up.
They got handled pretty thoroughly. We know what happened when

(24:25):
they went to Notre Dame in the playoff, got handled
physically pretty thoroughly. Well, this is their next shot. I
happen to believe this is a better Indiana team than
they were last year. So this is their next shot.
The Travel Spot saw Zach Shaw say this earlier today.
It's a paper popper. Big ten teams traveling across the
Rockies twelve and twenty one. This country has not come

(24:48):
that far since the Donner Party, if you really think
about it, Big ten teams are still having trouble getting
across the Rockies. So Oregon, their odds right now are
pretty good to make the playoff. I'm a believer if
Oregon wins this game, their odds may cross into minus
territory to make the playoffs, which in betting vernacular is
like a good thing negative is a good thing. There,

(25:09):
So major quarterback showdown. You need to tell your family
and friends, Tell your wife, tell your kids, tell your
aunt if they need something to watch this weekend, above
and beyond just their game. Quarterback play high level here Saturday.
It's the number one versus number six guy in the
heismanods at FanDuel right now, Dante Moore is the favorite.

(25:32):
And then look there at number six, Fernando Mendoza. I
was on Get Up this morning. You know what Orlovsky said,
Jesse Orlovsky said, in terms of NFL future, that dude
at Indiana number one in the country right now, How
did Kurt Signetti pull this off? All of you need
to transfer portal quarterbacks and sig goes and says, yeah,

(25:54):
I'll take the kid from col and win with him. Yeah,
that's what we're looking at here. So there's some stuff
about these teams that it's going to be put to
the test both ways. Like there's this thinking out there
right now, Oh, Indiana's going to get run. Why is that? Well, Indiana. Yeah,
they're a good team, but they haven't really faced anyone yet.

(26:15):
So a lot of these fancy stats that we have
on this slider right now, they're inflated. People think that
about Missouri too, Oh, they're inflated. Bam will come into
town and deal some truth. Well, people think Indiana is
going to go out to Eugene and get some truth,
and maybe they will. I just want to say, could
that not be looked at both ways? Oregon's got the

(26:35):
number six passing defense in the country right vaunted, Well,
they haven't faced a top eighty passing game in P four.
I'm just throwing a scenario out there. I'm throwing a
theory out there. Could it be in the interest of
a competitive game that Oregon's pass defense is just a
little inflated? Because if it is, is this not the

(26:57):
quarterback and pair of receivers to expect? Ow that it's
the best quarterback in wide receiver duo combo they've seen
so far this year by a mile. I know that
Dante More Oregon quarterback, over seventy two percent completion, fourteen touchdowns,
one pick, He's only taken one sack. Have they faced

(27:19):
a team that can pressure like Indiana for that matter.
How legit is that fifteenth rated pressure team that Indiana is?
How legitimate is a lot of this stuff? Is what
I'm trying to ask. How good is Indiana versus the run?
They're seventeenth, they're top twenty in run defense, but teams
have been in catchup mode against them. So if Oregon's

(27:41):
trying to come from behind, then okay, I pretty much
expect that to hold.

Speaker 4 (27:45):
But what do we know about Oregon?

Speaker 1 (27:47):
It's pretty good. What do we know about Austin. It's
a pretty tough place to play. So what do we
think is likely here? What's likely or at least very
possible is Oregon's the one up ten to three, up
thirteen to six early. And that's not ballgame. But what
it does mean is Oregon can play their full offense.
Oregon can do whatever they want, which means running the ball,

(28:09):
because they've got a very effective stable of tailbacks so
far this year. At that point, we find out these
transfer portal offensive lineman Oregon brought in. We find out
when they lean on Indiana for a full four quarters,
When a team as talented as Oregon commits to running
the ball for a full four quarters. We find out
also Oregon top twenty five on third down offense. The

(28:31):
explosive runs here are really key. Both teams are tied
at fifth in the country in explosive runs. So I
do think there's one swinging gate in this game, and
it's turnover. And obviously, if Oregon's plus in the turnover battle,
there is a chance this is a blowout. There is
a chance they pull away, they win by three scorers

(28:52):
or something like that. If the turnover battle goes the
way of Indiana, I don't think it guarantees that on
the other side, but it does make it really interesting.
So it's the game and play that to be clear.
I don't think Indiana has to have turnovers to win.
They just have to have really high level execution. They
have to win in the red zone. They do have
to do that both ways, and they have to expose

(29:13):
a couple of things from Organ's perspective that maybe we
didn't know were flaws. Let's take a look at what
the model things. Because the fandual number right now is
Oregon minus seven and a half. I got to tell
you when this thing was nine and a half earlier
this week, Indiana plus the Points was the favorite play
of the model. The model, there was not a game
on the board it liked more than Indiana. The model

(29:36):
still loves Indiana. The model has organ minus six, so
when you cross seven, when you cross that threshold, the
model really loves Indiana. I think the model is drugs
on this. I think the model has gotten just a
little bit hopped up on a lot of the churching
up statistically that Indiana does against inferior competition. I'm not

(29:59):
falling for it. And I know I went on the
Locker Room earlier this week and I picked Andyana plus
the Points. But I checked my constitutional rights right before
we went on air, and one of those amendments, I
can't remember which one it was, it clearly states that
up until kickoff, any American citizen reserves the right to
change their pick on a football game. And so here,

(30:19):
I am you gonna argue with the Constitution. I am
changing my pick. I think Oregon's gonna win. I think
Oregon's gonna cover. It's a shame. Sig sent those texts
to Dan Lanning allegedly earlier this week. If you don't know,
you need to go watch the Locker Room. It's actually
on our channel. We collabed with the Busting Guys to
feature it on both channels. Listen, I think Dan Lanning
and company, you are gonna take care of business here.

Speaker 4 (30:40):
So I changed my mind.

Speaker 1 (30:41):
I had a change of heart, and I am slamming
the model shut on this game. Oregon's gonna win. Organ's
gonna cover. You can go to Academy Sports and Outdoors
and get you a Duck beanie right now if you
want to. You can go get an Oregon T shirt
right now if you want to, at select stores, but
at pretty much any story you can get camping equipment
and grilling equipment and maybe a little kayak paddle over there.

(31:03):
You know you probably already have the kayak. You can
get whatever you need.

Speaker 4 (31:07):
Bats balls, goals.

Speaker 1 (31:09):
Anything like that. But everyone knows Academy has that. I
like to talk about the things you don't know Academy has,
and it's a lot, a whole lot. So I encourage
you check out Academy Sports and Outdoors. They've been a
partner of ours almost from day one. And if you
can't get there in person, it's a shame. But that's okay.
Academy dot Com has you covered. We appreciate them. We've

(31:31):
had a lot of fun with them over the years.
No end in sight. It's not the last day of
high school or anything like that. We're not signing each
other's yearbooks. But we appreciate them, all right. I know
I confused people earlier this week. We had a little
change up in the format of the show. I did
the Commissioner's Poll on Tuesday, when I normally do the jpeople,

(31:53):
and we're doing the JP Poll tonight. So here's a
good endpoint for you. Bradley got the week seven edition
of the JP Pole. I wonder why we waited until Thursday.
I guess ballots were incomplete.

Speaker 4 (32:04):
JP Pole.

Speaker 1 (32:05):
We were running a little refresh on the model. Now reminder,
this is not rankings. The rankings are the Commissioner's Pole.
So when you see, for instance, where Notre Dame is
power rated in this thing, don't think for a second
that's where I would rank Notre Dame. When you see
teams that have beaten teams but they're still power rated
behind those teams, it has nothing to do with where

(32:26):
I would rank those teams. And no one believes in
valuing on field results more than me. Up to and
including the committee. Sometimes I just am very interested in
power ratings and all. This is what I'm about to
show you is teams listed in order of how they
would be favored against each other on the neutral field.
So it's very much a Vegasis Odds Makers type way

(32:48):
of thinking. I do want to tell you before we
dive in, we do not have Brigham Young in the
top thirty rankings wise, we had them top twenty the
other night. Brigham Young, They're like thirty teams the model
would favor against them. And if you don't believe me
on that, that's okay. I would call your attention to
the fact that they're playing Arizona this weekend and that

(33:09):
line is right near a pickam. So there's record and
then there's what you would be power rated. Those are
different things. Also, Ohio State's kind of opened up a
little bit of a gap on the rest of the field.
But after Ohio State, if you go number two through
number nineteen, ten point gap between two and nineteen, I'll

(33:30):
show you who two is in a second. Okay, let's
go top twenty. Clemson is still a top twenty power
rating team. That's how you know these are not rankings Florida.
Is that Florida back in the power ratings? Florida's back
at number nineteen. Florida's on the road this weekend, Ladies
and gentlemen, They're at Texas A and M. Is it
New Florida or is it Old Florida. You'll know by

(33:53):
whether they get blown out or not. If they get
blown out, assume it's old Florida. Utah is at number eighteen,
not going Anywherelorida's date number seventeen. JP poll didn't drop
them because the JP pole got pretty much what we
expected in that game, so it didn't drop them. Missouris
at sixteen. We'll see where Bama is in the second.
Missouri's at sixteen, all right, top fifteen, LSUS at fifteen.

(34:17):
They have a critical game. I would almost call it
a must win game, but it feels like we have
half a dozen of those in the SEC this week.
They play South Carolina Saturday night. I got Cublic just
waiting in the on deck circle over here to talk
about that game. He's not actually in the room, but
he is calling that one. He'll be on the sideline
down there, and I am just utterly and completely enamored

(34:41):
with how LSU could come out of this bye week
offensively versus how they do, because I've got high hopes. Okay,
don't embarrass me. Penn State's at number fourteen. If the
bottom has fallen out of this team, that is not right.
So the model cannot pick up on that. It cannot
account for that. There's no way to know. We cannot

(35:02):
measure the emotion inside of a building. So Penn State
I would put a giant asterix on them being at
number fourteen. But this is just who would be favored.
I know LSU fans look at that and say, are
you telling me if we went and played Penn State
in Nashville that we would be a dog? Well, I'm
telling you, according to the model, you would be and

(35:22):
then you would be free to gobble up LSU plus
the points if you wanted to. I would be right
there with you. I don't have to agree with the model.
I just have to tell you what it thinks. Tennessee's thirteen.
Oh you is twelve Oklahoma, probably a little bit lower
than what folks would expect. That is not the Materier injury.
That is what John Matier Oklahoma at twelve. So you
go in, you handle Texas this weekend, and that fundamentally

(35:46):
changes the profile that the model has about you. But
if you've been wondering why I picked Texas against OU
number one, it's called I think Texas is the more
desperate team number two power ratings wise, it's a neutral field,
and we got Texas power rated a little bit higher
than OU. Indiana being at eleven is just incredible. That's
why I'm telling you. They were never up there last year.

(36:07):
The model never took them as seriously last year as
it is now, which is why I'm telling you I
think this is a much better team than they had
last year. Now, if they go into Oregon and they
lose by ten or something like that, you'll expect them
to fall. They won't fall that much. That'll be a
result sort of in line with what you would expect
the number eleven team in the country to do on

(36:29):
the road against a top five team. To the very
nature of how power ratings were top ten time A
and M's at ten and Texas Texas at nine, and
Texas is at eight, and the profile on those three
respective teams from Texas couldn't be any more different right now,
But look at the one that everyone's selling on because

(36:50):
that's the one rated the highest. Texas is at number eight.
A lot of folks are about to find out this weekend,
including me, Microphone. We're about to find out one way
or another, because it could just be that the talent
profile of Texas has them overinflated. I'm willing to grant
you that's a possibility. But just remember last week. You know,

(37:13):
Texas got beat by Florida, and we expected it on
the show. So as long as we're getting what we expect,
there's not going to be a whole lot of adjustment,
especially from the model's perspective. In the power ratings. Texas Tech, though,
look at where they are. I mean they're above OU,
They're above Tennessee, they're above LSU. The reason I'm mentioned
in these teams is because those are perennially top ten,

(37:35):
top fifteen recruiters, and Texas Tech's above them. That means
they portled in the right talent and it's sort of
verifying itself in terms of on field result. Ole Missus seven,
Notre Dame at six is the one that's going to
turn everyone's next sideways, and except mine because I can't
because it's hurt right now. No, they're not the number

(37:56):
sixteam in the country from a rankings perspective. And I
know I'm saying this for a third time and he
gets very redundant. But we're gonna put out a graphic.
I scheduled it so it's probably already out. And that's
what's pushback I'll get. I'll get folks at this point
who will say no, no, no, no no. I get
how the power ratings work. I'm telling you, even by

(38:17):
power ratings standards, Notre Dame's overrated. They're not. I'm just
telling you, I think you'd be shocked at how many
teams they'd be favored against, even with two losses. Top
five is pretty much what it's been. We've got Georgia five,
Bama four, Miami's up to three, Oregon's two, and Ohio
State's one right now, neutral field, the model would make

(38:42):
Ohio State about a four and a half point favored
against organ And like I said, in the SEC grouping specifically,
there is so much disaster scenario cause you're looking at one, two, three, four, five, six.
There are seven SEC teams in the top fifteen. A

(39:03):
lot of them play each other, almost all of them
already have losses. I think aside from Ole, miss A
and m most of them do have losses Oklahoma. But
the point is they're all going to play each other.
They're going to be some three and four lost teams.
It's inevitable, and there are some major disaster scenarios coming
because there are no elite teams here. It's just it's

(39:24):
pretty good or really good. There are no elite teams,
which means like you watched what happened to Penn State
last week and everyone laughs at them. I wouldn't laugh
too long, I wouldn't laugh too loud. That's the first one.
That's not the last one. And so the big question
with me is going to be the same as it
was at media days. How many people have truly recalibrated

(39:47):
their perspective to account for the new landscape of college football,
specifically in that conference. Because you're gonna have some three
and four loss teams, four and five loss teams even
that are kind of good and I'm not vouching for
them to make the playoff. What I'm saying is you're
gonna have some hot seat talk in places that they
have no business talking hot seat. It's just kind of

(40:09):
the way the ball bounced. It's gonna happen. This is
not an if. This is a this is a win.
Just don't know where yet. All right, let's keep it rolling. Oh,
I underestimated something. I gotta admit to you. I so
we have petstatemateial dot com, which is our store, our
merch store, and we got some T shirts in there,
you guys love and that's what I wear. I just

(40:31):
wear a white T shirt every day, so like that's
my thing. Savannah State had been on me for a
long time, as had a couple of other people. You
gotta get onesies, you gotta get infant gear, you gotta
get stuff for babies. So we launched the Little Freights
collection mainly because I like the name, but I had
no concept of how in demand this stuff was. So

(40:54):
we launched our kids' collection the other night on Sunday,
and I had my mind blown at what happened because
they became our best sellers. So they tell me reproduction
rates are going down. I can't prove it from the
store because the store indicates that there are way more
babies out there than there are adults, at least babies

(41:16):
that want to wear paint State Little Freights Gear. So
what did we do? We tripled down on it. We
put like three or four new products in the store
since two days ago. So even if you bought the
other day, and judging by the numbers most of you did,
I'm half convinced some of you that don't even have
newborns went and bought one just in case. Mixed great
Christmas gifts, birthday gifts as well. Paintstatematerial dot Com. Go

(41:40):
check it out. Yeah, if you're like us, you know,
just good old fashioned T shirts and crew necks. Yeah,
those are over there as well. I'm about to get
to the Rominul Express and then I'm gonna get to Cublic.
But I do want to remind you we got a
big weekend coming up. I know a lot of you're
gonna have action on these games. Make sure that you
are stopping by FanDuel, It's exclusive odds provider of our
show FanDuel dot Com Forward Slash Josh Paid. If you're

(42:03):
a new customer, you know you always got the bet
five to get three hundred in bonus bets, which just
means bet five bucks on what you think is an
easy winner, and when you win you'll get three hundred
in bonus bets. Right now, we're going to add to
the Ramen Noodle Express, and I want to remind everyone
true sign of legitimacy in this world. Do you go

(42:24):
to FanDuel, go to college football and have your own tab.
That's how you know you're legit. We have our own
tab there. I'm not kidding about that. You can go
to FanDuel and you can go to college football. And
if you're wondering what's on the Ramen Noodle Express this week,
like if you missed a show, which you would never do,
but if you miss the show, you can just go
to FanDuel and pull up the Josh paid tab. There

(42:44):
are the numbers. Now you'll notice FanDuel freezes the numbers
that I hand it out, but a lot of times
will move the line. Just a powerful show. We move
the line. So you're going to have to lay worse
juice the later in the wee that you bet these sometimes,
so you need to be tuned into the shows when
they happen. I'm about to add two more games, then

(43:06):
I'm gonna let you know about tomorrow night. Then we're
gonna get to Cublic Nebraska minus five and a half.
We were on that one earlier this week, Northern Illinois
plus one and a half, Kansas State plus one and
a half, and Stanford plus nineteen and a half. I
have two more games to add. Give me Bowling Green
plus eleven and a half they're playing Toledo, and give

(43:26):
me Kansas. I spoke so forcefully about that game because
I'm betting at Kansas plus fourteen and a half at
Texas Tech. Dangerous Jayhawks, just pecking around. Be careful. So
I'm gonna add several more games on Friday night lines tomorrow.
I'm telling you we're not done. The model is hot

(43:48):
right now and we are going to ride that thing immunity.
So it's gonna be sometime tomorrow night. Make sure you're
checking Twitter and the Instagram story tomorrow at Josh pat CFB.
I'll let you know what time it's gonna be. Probably
after the games, maybe after the games ten eleven o'clock
something like that. So a traditional Friday night line start time,
but just make sure you're following.

Speaker 5 (44:08):
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(44:30):
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for twenty four seven support in Massachusetts, or call one
eight seven seven eight Hope, n Y. Or text Hope

(44:51):
and Why in New York.

Speaker 1 (44:53):
In the meantime, I hear him, I hear c blick.
He's ready to go. So uh, let's welcome our friend Dan,
usual spot, Usual time on Thursday Night's cole kublick of
many different fames. Your most favorite thing, though, and the
thing that I would say, inarguably you're becoming the most
known for, is being recognized on the sideline at games

(45:17):
because you're on this show. Take the folks through what
that's like.

Speaker 4 (45:22):
Uh, it's really cool. When I bump into people and
they say, Pete State, why are you not the main
attraction on that show? And I say, that's not a
question for me, it's a question for the other guy.
Ask him like, why don't why are you not on more?
You know so much more about football than the other dude,
And I'm just a cube show is all I can
tell you. That one out crazy it is because you

(45:44):
said it's uncomfortable, is what it is.

Speaker 1 (45:45):
You sent me a video of it last week and
I heard him say the first part. I didn't hear
the whole not knowing ballpark.

Speaker 4 (45:51):
You must have cut that out.

Speaker 1 (45:52):
You edited it down a little bit so the video
would in faster.

Speaker 4 (45:55):
I know how I was trying to. I was trying
to boost morale. Yeah, not hurt morale. Let you feel
like you were important. Still. Yeah, I like he doesn't
need to hear about how you really don't like him
that much. It's okay.

Speaker 1 (46:06):
Yeah, are you aware that it is October? We're here,
it's time and you got a South Carolina game Saturday night.
I do Lina South Carolina LSU. For the folks that
don't know, seven forty five ish, six forty five ish
Central time kickoff down there on SEC network, You'll be
roaming the sidelines. Everybody thinks, everybody in this game, wait.

Speaker 4 (46:28):
A second, are we're kicking off at seven forty five
Central Eastern?

Speaker 1 (46:32):
Is that real Eastern?

Speaker 4 (46:34):
Okay? Yes, it's Central, And I was like, hold on
a second, I gotta change my entire plans.

Speaker 1 (46:38):
It would have been tough. Bradley, just we're going to
cut it in here. South Carolina LSU Saturday, seven forty
five Eastern kick, six forty five local kick there, that's
in Louisiana. You'll be roaming the sideline down there. Everybody
feels like they're in must win mode in this game.
Everyone tells you they got to have it. I think
especially LSU would tell you they have to have it.

(46:59):
So I am very interested for us to just ping
pong back and forth because we rarely get to do
a game preview together. But since it's such a loaded week,
we had to spill over into the little Thursday reservoir here.
So first key, where does your mind go? Go? Anywhere
you want to? South Carolina LSU.

Speaker 4 (47:16):
First key is something I've been saying about LSU for
weeks now, and it has become more balanced. Some people
may hear that, Josh, they're going to say, oh yeah,
run pass, don't put as much on nus Meyer. It's
not even that. I don't mind you using the quick
game as an extension of running the football and find
different ways to get the ball in your playmaker's hands quickly.
You have to even up the formations a little bit more.

(47:36):
Give me some different formations other than shotgun offset running back.

Speaker 1 (47:40):
Now.

Speaker 4 (47:40):
They did this actually seven times against Old Miss, which
was a big leap for the LSU offense, so really expanding.

Speaker 5 (47:48):
There.

Speaker 4 (47:49):
Still need more of it, though, and I would like
to see you develop a little more of a traditional
run game to be able to offset what Garrett nus
Meyer needs to be has to be for this offense.
The receivers are fantastic, ends are playing pretty good football.
The offensive line is not. They cannot withstand thirty five
forty snaps of this South Carolina front being able to

(48:09):
go straight attack mode and being able to play basically
jet formation where they think it's passed and they're going
to tee off and they're going to give you the
twists and the pressures and the blitzes and line up
in different ways to be able to go after you.
I don't think LSU wins this football game if they
have to play that way. So even things up, Josh,
more traditional run game, more evened out formations, make South

(48:29):
Carolina defend more that you're capable of doing, and I
think that would give LSU a massive advantage.

Speaker 1 (48:35):
Yeah, basically, what you're telling that offensive staff is earn
your paycheck, which is really where I am on this one.
When I look at LSU, they're about two or three
teams honestly in the SEC where I'm looking this week,
and I'm breaking down the game almost like someone who
is just passing by on the street would break down
the game like you guys a getting paid, how much
money you have, how much advantage in recruiting and talent acquisition?

(48:57):
And you're ware in the offensive ratings right now. You
know a lot of people are gonna yell, we got
establish the run, man, we got to run the ball,
like you said right there, however you accomplish that's however
you accomplish it. You've talked about Alabama many times this
year and how jam Miller's not running it for seven
yards per carrier, but yet the offense isn't.

Speaker 4 (49:14):
Getting bogged down because of that.

Speaker 1 (49:16):
LSU's offense has been bogged down because they lack that ability.
But I'm wondering a couple of things. Okay, yeah, it'd
be great number one if they just find something in
the run game. But I'm to the point in the season, man,
where I'm not going to assume that you'll ever get that,
And if you do, I'll be happy to be proven wrong.
I'll be pleasantly surprised, so more so than established the

(49:37):
run or establish this or that. That's first thing. Second
thing is if Nuss is healthy, I just want you
to establish whatever, like, establish something that works. Also, if
he has the added ability to stretch the field, which
they really haven't so far this year because he may
be a little better health wise, which is a huge
question mark. I just think to myself, all right, I'm

(49:58):
looking at what Alabama does, and I'm looking at the
fact that they've got that and they don't have a
power ground game element to their offense right now. They
hope it shows up at some point this year, but
it hadn't been there so far. I just look at
it from the most rudimentary point of view possible, and
that is there are a lot of people in that
building that have jobs that a lot of folks in
college football would love. And at some point, man, I

(50:21):
like those guys on that offensive staff. You got to
earn your money. You've got what you've got. You don't
get to go to the portal during week six or
week seven. It's same thing with Texas. You got to
use what it is you have in the building and
you got to find a way to squeeze enough juice
out of that orange to win a game. Key number two,
by the way, go ahead.

Speaker 4 (50:41):
I think, let me just fallou Bush. You're staying there
real quick. It's not even about going out and running
the ball thirty five times four, one hundred and ninety
six yards. It's the presentation of it. So it's a
great example when you go to Alabama because what do
they make you defend? Obviously the width of the field
with those receivers, but hid in the flat tight end,
down the middle of the field, running backs out of

(51:03):
the field, screen game two receivers, two running backs, quarterback
run bootleg. We've seen a couple of design quarterback runs
at Alabama gives you. And then in the actual run game,
two back running back behind quarterback. We've seen Ty Simpson
under center a couple of times this year outside zone,
inside zone duo, we've seen them hand it off to
the left tackle and throw it to him. Also, so

(51:24):
that presentation of what do we have to defend, how
and why and what that allows us to truly be
that we think we are or are not. That's where
I think I would agree with you that LSU's got
to go and just that they can't let Clayton White
t off because when he does, he's really good at it.
He knows how to free guys up and get to
the quarterback. And I know for a fact he spent
his entire offseason study on how to free up an

(51:47):
elite pass rusher. Because of course they have Dylan Stewart
next in line. For me, would be key to this
game include Leonora Sellers in the run game heavily. That, however,
Josh does not mean he has to carry the football
eighteen twenty twenty two times. The threat of him carrying
the football has to be there though. This LSU defense

(52:10):
has to not only be aware but they have to
think that he has the capabilities of keeping the football
and running on a very regular basis. Now that could
mean zone read sort of sprint out with a pop
pass element to it, which we've seen other teams do.
It almost looks like a triple option nowadays. Could be
your traditional zone read. Give me just a straight quarterback
power or quarterback inside zone every once in a while,

(52:31):
boot him move the pocket with the ability to tuck
the ball and run. I felt like Mike Shula got
a little bit nervous around the second third game of
the season to just let Leonoris go in the run game.
And again not saying he has to carry the load
in the run game, but the threat of him carrying
the load has to be there or else. This is
an LSU defense that can absolutely teoffs in similar fashion

(52:54):
to South Carolinas, and they'll do it even more ways
with how Blake Baker is going to design it. You
need to keep those safeties. You need to force defenders
to stay out wide because of what Leonora's can potentially
give you on the perimeter. If you're going to number one,
develop any kind of traditional run game here, because that
hasn't gone for South Carolina anyway, and then number two
be able to find some things down the field because

(53:14):
you offset what they can do. From a pressure standpoint.
If there's that belief that, hey, this guy could keep
the ball and take over at any moment, we have
to be wary of that.

Speaker 1 (53:23):
Yeah, I'm thinking about that. So what you just said,
I'll copy paste, I'll sign off on all that, and
then I take it and I just throw it in
a pot and try and bake myself to a South
Carolina win if it is to happen Saturday night. And
I don't know what. Sometimes you do the magic number things,
sometimes you don't. I've got a magic number in my
head where if it's just offensive scoring, that's gonna dent

(53:45):
the scoreboard for South Carolina. I've got to think I
got to keep them under twenty three, under twenty something
like that. Again, if I'm not getting special teams or
defensive scores, I think my defensive effort has to be
of that caliber. It would help me if they're still
not able to run the ball. It would help me
if I make them incapable of running the ball. But
also I've I have always watched Nussmayer. Now this is

(54:08):
me if I'm a defensive staffer at South Carolina. I
always watch this tape of Garrett Nusmayer, and there's always
just an inexplicable decision or two in there. I've got
to capitalize on that. It can't just be where the
crowd goes, ooh man, that could have been bad. Oh well,
we live to play third down. I got to make
them pay for that. I've got to find explosive plays
the cap busters somehow, someway. I've been bad at it

(54:29):
so far this year, I'm eighty ninth in explosive play rate.
Let's use defense has not allowed a single play of
forty plus their top twenty and thirty plus ers. So
there's just some inversion that has to happen there. Now,
that's just to win a traditionally played game. If that
doesn't happen, you just got to have some weird stuff.
You gotta have some October stuff happen. Take a look,
by the way, at the FanDuel number is eight and

(54:51):
a half. The model agrees. So I've got no strong
lean on this game. As far as the model goes,
as far as I go, I think I've I've seen
the worst of LSU this year, it's gonna be a
tough stretch for South Carolina. I think I've seen the
worst of LSU. I got really, really gut feelings about
LSU and Texas this week that there's gonna be a
little bit of a bounce back about them. And so

(55:12):
for LSU, look, that could mean winning a game twenty
three to ten or something like that, but I think
they're going to find a way to win and cover here.
You're calling the game, so it would be very unethical
of you to sound off here. But final thoughts on
this one before we move on.

Speaker 4 (55:27):
A similar thought that I'm going to give you to
about eight other games this weekend.

Speaker 1 (55:30):
Take the under points at a premium.

Speaker 4 (55:34):
Get out of there.

Speaker 1 (55:34):
It's like a Greg Maddox game for you. Get out
of there before ten thirty or eleven something like that.

Speaker 4 (55:40):
Possibly.

Speaker 1 (55:40):
Yeah, man, let's talk about OU Texas for a second.
Out of all, even including the game I'm going to
this week, This one's the one I'm actually most fascinated
to watch unfold. Oklahoma Texas, Texas, Oklahoma, whichever direction you
want to say, the team's in. It is the Red
River Shootout, known by no other name on this show,

(56:00):
there is this mentality out there. You can really tell
who kind of pays attention to college football and who
looks at it driving by it that Texas has this
almost insurmountable hurdle in front of them this week, and
then you look at the bottom of the screen and
you see they've been anywhere from a one and a
half point favorite to one and a half point dog.
I know, one's undefeated, one's two losses, like that's all

(56:21):
the wallpaper. But when you tear off the wallpaper and
you get into this game. I've listened to you talk
a little bit this week, We've talked on the phone
a little bit about it this week. It feels like
you and I are sort of on the same page here.
I went as far as to just pick Texas to
win the game. At the very least you vocalized on
your show all week, how yes, this is going to
be a struggle for Texas, but it should be a very,

(56:43):
very tall order for the Oklahoma offense as well. So
just walk folks through what you talked about all week.

Speaker 4 (56:48):
I just don't know what the baseline offense is going
to be for Oklahoma in this game. If John Mattier
doesn't go. Now, if John Matier goes, it completely changes
the dynamic of what this game is and what this
game can be. I would love Oklahoma in this game
if we had a ninety percent John Mattier, that was
gonna play because the ball distribution, the ability to operate

(57:09):
the offense at a high level, none of that is
a real concern anymore, even if you lack the balance
kind of that we reference with say Lsu a little
bit earlier, Josh, you know what you're gonna get in
Matier because he can just create, and he has that
it factor and he has the ability to just make
things happen. I couldn't believe my eyes when I was
watching Michael Hawkins Junior last week against Kent State. It

(57:29):
didn't look good. It looked sporadic. It looked panicked, It
looked rushed. It never looked comfortable. And even if you
want to say to yourself, hey, we're gonna go back
and throw in our Alabama game plan from last year
and put that in install that in this year, I
don't feel like that's an advantageous plan against what this
Texas defense brings. You're gonna have Colin Simmons. You're gonna

(57:51):
have Trey More, You're gonna have Ethan Burke elite and
older edge defenders, outside linebackers. Guys are gonna be playing
on the outside of the line of scrimmage that can
defend those kind of things. And you have a defensive
line that I think, yes, got pushed around a little
bit against Florida, most of that a little bit later.
I think they were worn down, but has still shown

(58:12):
signs of life over the course of this season. An
active group of linebackers that I also think works against
let's just say playing that type of offense for an
entire day. I don't know how anybody scores in this
game because the Texas skill players have not been wowing
anyone this year. You go back to last year, it
was a screen, make a guy miss, take it for fifty,

(58:32):
it was a screen, break a tackle, go for twenty outside,
zone break a tackle, shake a safety. All of a sudden,
five yard game turns into a fifteen yard game. You
go inside zone, bounce it outside, make a guy miss,
break an arm tackle, looks like a two yard game.
It's a twenty two yard game. Where are those this year?
I have hardly seen any of those from this Texas offense.

(58:52):
Start's not running a different plan. Now the offensive line
can't protect that's not a secret. You don't need me
here to tell you that and be some sort of
an expert to share that with people. So that limits
things that you're gonna do. In arch Manning hasn't been great,
but I don't think a lot of that's on him,
or at least not near as much as some of
the people in the media are potentially trying to portray.
I think both these teams struggle. I think there could

(59:14):
be an explosive play or two that decide this game.
Whether that's a dB falling down, whether it's a quarterback
getting outside the pocket, scrambled drill, somebody forgets to cover
somebody out of the backfield, he runs down the sideline.
I don't see anyone manufacturing yards or points in this game,
neither side. And it's been cool talking to people who
have been a part of this game. I've never been

(59:34):
to it, you've been to it, but to hear how
different and how unique it is from the noise perspective,
the crowd perspective. We know it's split, but I think
people forget about the age of the stadium and what
it's like entering the stadium using the same tunnel, the
fact that the crowd noise never dies down, Like I've
never heard that about Georgia, Florida. I've never heard somebody
say that players struggle with this that haven't been in

(59:56):
it because the noise never stops. Therefore, I talked to
Chip Brown earlier this week on our show, and he
said the coin toss is critical in this game. And
for me, I'm not super experienced in this game. I'm thinking, okay,
like give me your little deal that you think you're
trying to be cute and different than everybody else. And
he goes on to make a fascinating point about how

(01:00:19):
you better be going into your fans late if it's
going to be a game winning field goal or attempting
to score late to try to win this football game,
because if not, it's gonna be a real problem, and
how much strategy goes into that part of it. So
I look at this Texas team and I wonder, like,
where are the Jake Majors, Where are the John A. Barns,
Where are the gunner helms? The guy who had been
around your hard hat dirty work guys. And I know

(01:00:41):
people see joh Ay Barron, they're like, he's not like
some utility player, dirty wark guy. But you know what
he got put in his place two years ago about
where he was gonna get drafted, essentially had to come
back to try to earn his keep and get his
rating back up, change his position and goes out and
does that. So yeah, that tells me his makeups a
little bit different than the second year five stars guy
out of East PLAINO or whatever it is. I just

(01:01:03):
I don't know if Texas has those experienced guys, bring
your lunch pales, show up to work, want to do
it anyway possible. I haven't seen a lot of those
guys making plays for this team this year. I feel
like Oklahoma will still have a few more of those
on the field than Texas will, and that experience allows
the Sooners to get the win here. I'll take Oklahoma,
but I think it might give Auburn Mississippi State from

(01:01:24):
two thousand whatever that was a run for its money.

Speaker 1 (01:01:27):
Yes, score three and WM the other weird thing, I
don't I'm not sure how Florida Georgia splits it, but
they may split it. You know down the goalposts where
one side fit end zone to end zone dot to
you the other side. This is way different here. It
is a good point. I picked up on it because
I've been there before, but I never thought about it
from that standpoint. They split it right down the middle

(01:01:47):
of the fifty. So what stands out the most is
depending on the end zone you're standing in when a
big play happens, and typically in this game there are
a lot of them this year maybe the exception, you're
either used to an immediate sledgehammer two your ears, or
there's like a three quarter second delay because it takes
the sound that time to travel, and it's really really
it sticks with you. Not to mention both sides are

(01:02:09):
firing some form of artillery when big plays happen towards
gun smoke all over the place the fair food. Since
it's not a double decker stadium, it's really easy for
the aroma from outside to come in. Unbelievable. You guys
broke down some of the new dishes they're serving at
the State Fair this week on your show. By the way,
I don't know if you had that one with the
fruity pebbles and the what you're not memorized this morning,

(01:02:31):
but I like I had thirty percent of my caloric
intake from listening to you read the menu item this morning.
That's how devastating.

Speaker 4 (01:02:40):
Is some kind of like a super fruity Sprite special
drink and it comes in like a big plastic boot
and you know Sprite. I think it's got skittles like
gummy straws. It's just like, yeah, you can tell that
was a drink that was made for the sorority girls
to have a little something extra to dump in there
and then head into the game.

Speaker 1 (01:02:58):
And that's what this country's all about. That's how the
founders intended it up. In Columbia, when's the last time
you went to Columbia, Missouri?

Speaker 4 (01:03:05):
Which one? Oh, Missouri? We were there last year.

Speaker 1 (01:03:09):
What's a construction site now? Debor ish to one at
construction site so far at Alabama because Vandy last year
got him, so he's looking to avoid going oh and
two at construction sites. I had someone ask me with
a dead serious face this morning on a certain network program,
should Alabama be on upset alert? Here? You're looking at

(01:03:29):
the bottom of the screen. That number says minus three
and a half, not minus thirty three and a half
minus three and a half. Not only are they on
upset alert, it's not an upset ladies and gentlemen of
Missouri just you know, has the audacity to win a
game at home here or a pretty good team. I
think my questions all week, I want to get your
you know, get your read on this. My questions all
week have been more along the lines of what's the

(01:03:52):
scalability of these different stat profiles for them once they
play really really legitimate competition. Because other than that, I mean,
they've been really good running the ball. I think for
all of the hype that Mackay Hughes got when he
went to Oregon, Amad Hardy should have gotten the hype,
and now he is getting the hype for having gone
to Missouri. But when we broke the game down Tuesday,

(01:04:15):
the more you look at it, the more you realize, dude,
the stuff that you would normally fear if your Bama
going to Georgia, their defensive front getting after you and
you not having enough time to throw and get behind
the eight ball early, that's actually should be your biggest
fear on the road at Missouri because they're more likely
to do that to you and put you in a
blender than Georgia. And now I think the common fan
has to see that to believe it, because George is Georgia.

(01:04:38):
Missouri is just Missouri. And so I went Bama here
by the slimmest of margins. But if we were on
a debate stage and it was my job to make
a case for Missouri, I could really really easily talk
myself into a Missouri win here, and I could talk
myself into seeing this game script, especially if Missouri starts
hot taking on the same kind of feel as Alabama

(01:04:59):
FSU did, where you're just in catchup mode all day,
and so all this good will and these good vibes
you got about jam Miller running the ball better and
all men, we're not penalized as much anymore. It is
such a thin ice with hot blades situation with that,
because it relies on everything to keep going right and
execution to keep being almost flawless, and the moment it doesn't,

(01:05:20):
the moment the crowbar gets thrown in the spokes a
little bit. I'm interested to see how Alabama responds.

Speaker 4 (01:05:26):
Well some of those things that you mentioned in the past,
be it Alabama or Georgia. I think there are probably
the only two teams in our lifetimes that we can
use these examples for. It was just it was overwhelming
blunt force trauma and there was just nothing you could
do about it. And that I don't think that exists
really with any team in college football right now. Ohio
State's offensive line is probably the close I've seen to

(01:05:47):
it of just being able to do things to you
that you cannot have an answer for unless you can
physically match up to it. There's not a number of bodies,
there's not a scheme. It's just at the end of
the day, we're going to put you on your backside,
and there's not all that you're gonna do about it,
and you're gonna like it by the time we get
to the fourth quarter. That's not this Alabama football team.
Georgia is not going to be that way this year either.
So I don't think Missouri having to fear that is

(01:06:10):
going to have to go in some shell of themselves
and not be able to run their offense or run
their defense and not have a chance to win this
football game. I'm with you. I could sit here and
convince myself and you that Missouri is going to win.
I think there's a really good chance Missouri wins this
football game. I go back to last week and you
kind of started to hint around something that I think
we are really falling for in college football, specifically in

(01:06:32):
the SEC this year. Scorers, final scores are not indicative
of how these games have gone. You look at Ole
miss at LSU, you look at Alabama Vanderbilt. We walked
away from that thinking that that was a dominant win
by Alabama, that was two plays away from going the
opposite direction, and I think Alabama's going to need similar plays.
Whether it's justin Jefferson punching a ball out at the

(01:06:54):
ten yard line going in, which would to put you
down two scores going into the behalf of Vanderbilt receiving
the kick, or if it's Demanti Jackson working through a
tackle or excuse me, a tight end who was kind
of pulling around to be able to make a stop
on fourth and short, to be able to flip the
ball back to them and not give Vanderbilt a chance
to go down and make that a game late. Those

(01:07:16):
are the kind of plays that Alabama's going to have
to come up with, and not just on defense because
they've made those plays recently on offense as well. Bea
jam Miller, Ryan Williams, Jeremy Bernard Wuavos has been excellent
at tight end. But Missouri will match Alabama physically in
this game. And the stretch play is a booger bear.
That thing is hell on wheels to defend, and Kirby

(01:07:37):
Moore is going to give you every formation, every motion,
every splitter, everything that you can possibly imagine coming with it.
The eyes of the Alabama defense decide this game because
I think bo Perbula at times moves the football. I
think Missouri gets an explosive player too, either from he
or a Mat Hardy. I think Alabama gets an explosive
player two in this game because the missourid is very aggressive.

(01:08:01):
I mean, they have a safety number one that wants
to knock your helmet off every game. Marvin Burks wants
to try to ruin you. It's what he does, it's
who he is. I absolutely love it. But don't think
for a second that this defensive line can't get after you.
I mean, Chris McClellan, Zion Young, they understand how the
physicality is supposed to work upfront in this league. They're
not going to get bullied for four quarters by this

(01:08:22):
Alabama offense. So I think explosive plays at a big
player two defensively decide this game. I'm with you. I
just think Ty Simpson's playing at such a high level
right now he finds a way to get this one done.
But there's no way that I'll hop on my flight
out of New Orleans to Charlotte on Sunday morning and
be extremely surprised if Missouri were to find a way
to get this.

Speaker 1 (01:08:41):
One last few minutes here. I tried and tried and
tried to find a path to talk myself into Auburn
getting the job done against Georgia, and I couldn't find it.
And trust me, I tried because I want to do
the whole thing I did with Florida last week. A
team that's in desperation mode goes into the by discovers
themselves the magic of self scouting, and then you come

(01:09:04):
out and you got a home game and it's charged,
and you got a vulnerable Georgia team going on the road,
and you're building this it's not some elite Georgia team.
But I just kept thinking about two things. Number one,
what is the special thing that I'm gonna sort of
hitch my wagon to because I thought Florida could do
some things they just hadn't done, and then they did
those things to a large enough degree against Texas. I

(01:09:25):
couldn't find that with Auburn. And number two, if we're
counting on the environment to swallow Georgia up, I got
respect for very few environments more than that one at night.
But I watched them go into Nland. I watched Georgia
go into Neland's zero false starts, So I've already seen
them handle the road. Young team handle the road very well.
So I think you are going to have to beat

(01:09:48):
them doing something better than them, and I couldn't find
it with Auburn. Did you find it at all this week?

Speaker 4 (01:09:54):
The only thing that I could find if that were
to take place, is going to be some of the
incons season. Let's just say a poor play that has
shown up at times on the Georgia offensive line and
the Auburn front being able to take advantage of that.
Guys like Kieron Crawford Keldric Faugh if they are in
position to make massive plays, I mean game changing plays,

(01:10:14):
stripsack fumbles, hit a quarterback to where the ball is
tipped up, intercepted, and even if it's not back for
a touchdown, it's giving you the ball in the twenty
eight or the thirty two going in. Because I'm with you,
I don't see Auburn driving the football in this game.
I would not be surprised, Josh if all of a
sudden Auburn decides that the neighborhood that they're going to

(01:10:35):
move into is one that contains a lot more direct
quarterback run and just say, you know what, we're past
the time here the glass slippers coming off. This is
who we need to be if we're going to make
our offense go still looking at some shot plays down
the field, still running Hugh Freeese's our po based offense.
But that's probably one of the few things that has

(01:10:56):
a realistic chance to go. Here's the problem for Auburn
in this game. Offensively. People are gonna say, oh, the pressure,
the offensive line. You mentioned Florida a moment ago. When
Florida's offense is good, what's the foundation of it? Running
the football, the zone scheme inside outside zone. What do
they do off that they counter off that which is
essentially looks like the zone scheme and it goes the
opposite direction. Then you get a jet sweep, then you

(01:11:18):
boot DJ lagway. The basis of this Auburn offense is
the RPO. The run has to go first, and this
Auburn offensive line does not appear as though it's going
to be able to push this Georgia front seven around.
And to further that point, I walked away from the
Georgia film last week against Kentucky. I know a lot
of people saw and said, God, it was a boring game.
I got nothing from that game. I was actually wowed

(01:11:40):
by Georgia's defense in that game. And here's the reason
why I watched that game. And I watched Kentucky have
the number count in the box, time after time after time,
four in the box, five in the box, five in
the box, four in the box, even six with a
tight end or two, which is still gives you the
numbers game, and you should hand the football off. I

(01:12:01):
watch that offensive line work a combo. They go, oh,
I got a little movement there. Oh, left guard a
nice little push. Oh, right guard's pulling around and getting
a kickout block. They got the numbers. Look at this up.
Then the next thing. You know, as soon as that
running back got to the line of scrimmage, that number
count went from four to six or five to eight,
or six to eight or four to seven like that.

(01:12:22):
And if the Auburn offense is going to be based
on winning versus a light box with a team that
can close and compress space as quickly as this Georgia
defenses can, I don't see how they're going to generate
enough offense to win this game.

Speaker 1 (01:12:36):
All right, you got to catch a flight. First thing
you gotta do is let people know where they can
find Cube Show, because the live chat is blowing up,
like where can I get more of this guy? It's
like the antithesis of what they ask you when you're
in the stadium.

Speaker 4 (01:12:50):
It is on the internet somewhere via YouTube maybe even
if you listen to your podcast on Spotify or Apple Podcasts.
Just search Cube Show. We do it every Monday. We
watch all the see games. We tell you what we
saw on film. Don't have a bias either way. We
just break it down for you there and you'll be
able to hear and see exactly what I saw when
I put the film on. So every Monday we come

(01:13:10):
out round probably seven a pmish. Even with five games
last week, we still couldn't get it out on Sunday.
Not that we want to go toe to toe with
you anyway.

Speaker 1 (01:13:17):
No bias. It'll never work. It will never work.

Speaker 4 (01:13:21):
Not a single time.

Speaker 1 (01:13:22):
Yeah, all right, but travel safe, enjoy the boot. And
here's to over twenty points being scored fingers crossed.

Speaker 4 (01:13:29):
In any game, yeah this week, in any game.

Speaker 1 (01:13:32):
Bye see you. All right. That's him.

Speaker 4 (01:13:36):
That's our show.

Speaker 1 (01:13:37):
That's our show. We're off. We're off to the show
me State of Missouri. Friday Night Lines. Remember at Josh
Pate CFB on Instagram. It's going to be a classic
Friday Night Lines. It will actually be at night. No
softball tomorrow, so we'll do it sometime later in the
evening in a very very dimly lit Missouri hotel room.
Immunity to everything I just said, and roll express on

(01:14:00):
fire right now, so do not miss it until then.
For director Bradlet for producer Jesse now, Josh Paid, take care,
have a great week and enjoy the games. Everyone will
be back Sunday to discuss it all.

Speaker 5 (01:14:12):
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Speaker 1 (01:15:10):
In New York

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