NAB Morning Call
Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Episodes
Friday 31st May 2024
Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.
Assuming he stays out of prison, Donald Trump has an even chance of winning the next Presidency. What does that mean for the Fed? Trump has often argued for the need to keep interest rates low, so he’s probably not too happy with the higher for longer strategy being us...
Friday 31st May 2024
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Inflation is taking a long time to come down, everywhere it seems. Europe reports its CPI today, but the numbers from Germany and Spain have already shown it’s taking longer than expected. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about expectations around the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Core PCE Deflator, out...
Thursday 30th May 2024
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Australia’s monthly CPI reads are always to be treated cautiously. Nonetheless, the surprise rise in inflation did create a response on Asian markets, pushing Aussie yields higher. JBWere’s Sally Auld talks about how weaker bond demand in US 7-year note auction added to the bond sell-off. Australia was...
Tuesday 28th May 2024
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There were two bond auctions in the US overnight – for 2 year and 5 year treasuries. Both saw weaker demand than expected. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton if investors are weary of the size of bond supply this year. Meanwhile US consumer confidence rose more than expected. Yesterday we saw weaker retail nu...
Tuesday 28th May 2024
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It’s been a quiet 24 hours with the UK and US on holiday, with the bond and equity markets closed in each place. But Europe was open for business, although the German IFO numbers offered little to get excited about – staying in the same place as last month. One ECB speaker said after the June rate cut, ...
Monday 27th May 2024
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Friday was a quiet end to the week, but the NSDAQ still managed to touch a new high. Bond markets closed early in the US, though, in readiness for a long weekend, that will see a slow start to this week. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says trade was light so we can’t draw any definitive conclusions about too much. ...
Friday 18th May 2024
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NVIDIA is now the third biggest listing in the US, with a market cap of 2.3 trillion dollars. Their earning results this week were an upside surprise for revenue, margins and forward guidance. So how far has the US tech growth story got to go? Phil talks to NABTrade’s ...
Friday 24th May 2024
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Stronger than expected PMIs in the US – for manufacturing and services – have pushed bond yields higher. Equities, which started the session strong on the back of the NVIDIA earnings, have also fallen sharply today as pricing for rate cuts by the Fed gets pushed back further. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the...
Thursday 23rd May 2024
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The UK Prime Minister stood out I the pouring rain to announce a July 4 election for the UK, months ahead of expectations. Perhaps he doesn’t think the economy will improve so he might as well go sooner. It comes on the same day as the latest UK CPI numbers, which didn’t fall as far as expected. Phil a...
Wednesday 22nd May 2024
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Equities were quite contained a day out from the NVIDIA earnings, although the S&P did hit another all time high. Copper prices continue to rise from its new high on Monday. Phil asks Ray what’s driving this – real factors or a speculative bubble? European wages data came in high, so much so ...
Tuesday 21st May 2024
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There’s an absence of solid data. Maybe that’s why equity markets have reverted to AI-hype, ahead of NVIDIA earnings later in the week. There’s also been significant gains in the price of silver, gold and copper. Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about why precious metals are doing so well. None of thi...
Monday 20th May 2024
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It’s a quiet start today after a week that finished slowly. Skye Masters discusses how bond yields have been slowly rising, unwinding the moves after the surprise CPI growth earlier in the month. Central banks still seem to be doing their best to warn markets not to expect rate cuts too soon. Isabel Schn...
Friday 18th May 2024
Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.
There’s been a lot said about the Labor federal budget this week. One of the big questions is whether the energy subsidy alongside the tax cuts and rent assistance, will do enough to bring down inflation. In this Weekend Edition JB Were’s Sally Auld argues that, whilst...
Friday 17th May 2024
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Even though equities fell form their record highs of yesterday, that wasn’t until after the Dow passed the 40k mark for the first time ever. JBWere’s Sally Auld is surprised at the confidence in US equity markets, particularly as data is showing more signs of softness and Fed speakers continue to talk ab...
Thursday 16th May 2024
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US CPI came in broadly as expected overnight, but the markets reacted anyway. Perhaps they feared another upside surprise. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the slowdown in retail numbers also raised expectations slightly that the Fed will squeeze in two rate cuts before the year is out. But what about the RBA?...
Wednesday 15th May 2024
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Markets are waiting for US CPI later today. There was some market reaction to he producer price numbers from the US, which NAB’s Gavin Friend described as sticker shock. The core number for April was higher than expected, but markets quickly retraced steps when the March number was revised down. In sh...
Tuesday 14th May 2024
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It is of course, budget day in Australia today. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says government subsidies will help bring headline inflation down, but the rise in household spending could delay the slowdown in the underlying inflation rate. The speed at which inflation will fall continues to be the question on eve...
Monday 13th May 2024
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There were a few signs that inflation globally might be taking longer to fall. Canada’s surprise employment numbers pushed yields higher, and the UKs CPI was an upside surprise on Friday as well. Consumer inflation expectations in the US also came in higher. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says al these factors c...
Friday 10th May 2024
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Productivity gains have been slipping, not just in Australia, but around the world. The problem locally is accentuated by the shift away from a heavily automated resources sector, where significant value is added per employee. If we can’t manage the same level of effic...
Friday 10th May 2024
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There wasn’t much market reaction as the Bank of England kept rates on hold but said what many already knew, that they will have to cut rates in the coming months. The ECB seems wedded to the idea of a June cut, with the accounts of their last meeting out today, but there is some speculation about how qu...
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