NAB Morning Call

Friday 9th May 2025

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.

The commercial real estate (CRE) market has struggled post-COVID, with working from home and online shopping both taking a chunk out of demand for properties. But the tide is starting to turn, with investment picking up and a stronger focus on building greener premises ...

Friday 9th May 2025

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Markets have seen the positive side of the US-UK trade deal. It’s a sign that deals can be done to reduce tariffs, but NAB’s Ken Crompton wonders whether sentiment is running ahead of itself. Although there are some carves out for sectors, including steel, the UK base tariff rate remains at 10 percent. Th...

Thursday 8th May 2025

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US equity markets took a hit when the Fed announced no change in interest rates, even though it was expected by just about everyone. Then shares picked up as Jerome Powell gave his press conference, in which he talked up the current state of the US economy and said they were in a good place to cope with...

Wednesday 7th May 2025

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The US President has made it clear there won’t be negotiations back and forth on tariffs, he’ll simply make the call. NAB’s Sally Auld says that accounts for most of the uncertainty in markets today, with big falls in equities again. The US dollar is weaker again, with the Aussie gaining some strength....

Tuesday 6th May 2025

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There’s much less enthusiasm in the markets today, with US equities finishing deeply in the red at session lows, finishing a nine-day winning streak. There’s no readily apparent reason, except perhaps for concerns the scope and timing of US trade deals. The Taiwanese dollar rose further today over r...

Monday 5th May 2025

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There was a risk-on Friday, as the price of equities rose, and repricing of Fed rate cut expectations saw bond yields rising too.  NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there are two reasons for this optimism. First, the continued hope that some sort of truce will be found in the tariff war between the US...

Friday 2nd May 2025

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Australian house prices are back on the rise, but how sustainable is this growth considering global economic uncertainty. Or will any potential external factors be more than offset by falling interest rates? Core Logic’s Eliza Owen joins Phil to discuss what’s been happening in Australia’s capital ci...

Friday 2nd May 2025

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It’s been a session heavy on news and data, largely seen as positive, particularly inequity markets although they lost some of their gains towards the US close. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says two things were driving shares higher. First, yesterday’s string earnings results for Microsoft and Meta. Secondly, the...

Thursday 1st May 2025

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Markets responded to a larger than expected fall in US GDP reported this morning. But, as NAB’s Skye Masters suggests, equity markets clawed their way back in late trade. Perhaps its because the fall was largely driven by short term factors, in particular a much higher than expected level of imports, ca...

Wednesday 30th April 2025

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We are in the thick of economic data today - Aussie CPI, European and US GDP, US wages and the core PCE deflator. We’ve just seen weaking confidence in the Conference Board’s latest survey. Yet equity markets continue to rise. In fact, the S&P has had its biggest six day rise since March 20...

Tuesday 29th April 2025

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Markets were more subdued for most of the session overnight, with shares in the US down until a reversal in the last hour of trade. The hopes of a quick resolution to US-China is seeming less likely. For a start, are the two sides talking? NAB’s Tapas Strickland says President Trump claimed he ha...

Monday 28th April 2025

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Markets stayed positive through most of last week on the hope that trade deals will be done, and tariffs are being used as leverage rather than being a permanent fixture. But Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill what if deals aren’t done. A source report in the Wall Street Journal outlined the extensive topics ...

Thursday 24th April 2025

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The US dollar will continue to slide, come what May. And probably come what June and July. Whilst he’s reluctant to be drawn too closely on timing, NAB’s Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy, says we can expect to see the US dollar fall another 10 percent, at least, with the Aussie returning about the 70...

Thursday 24th April 2025

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US equities rose again this session, and te US dollar strengthened for the second session, as the Trump administration talked up the possibility of cuts to China’s tariffs. The Wall Street Journal reports the levies could be cut by more than half in some cases, although there’s declaration from Trump...

Wednesday 23rd April 2025

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Markets are behaving very differently today. US equities are rising, bond movement is subdued, and oil prices are back on the rise. NAB’s Sally Auld says sentiment is being driven by talk from the US administration about trade deals getting closer with India and Japan, and how he current i...

Tuesday 22nd April 2025

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The 'sell America' trade continued on Monday, with equities and bond prices both falling. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it’s uncertainty over the independence of the Fed that is playing on market concerns this time. The US President has made no secret of his desire to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair,...

Thursday 17th April 2025

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.

IATA is predicting the airline industry will break through the $1 trillion revenue mark, but with margins averaging up 3.6 percent. Phil suggests to airline industry analyst John Strickland that it’s not much of a return for such a capital-intensive industry s...

Thursday 17th April 2025

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Things are getting uglier in the trade war between the US and China. Equity markets have been hit by new limits on the export of NVIDIA’s critical AI chip to China, and threats of secondary tariffs on US trade partners who trade significantly with China. NAB’s Gavin Friend also talks through Jerome P...

Wednesday 16th April 2025

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Tariff and trade news continues to dominate and drive markets in all directions. Sentiment surveys are now showing a serious downturn, with the Bank of America claiming investors are ayt their most bearish in 30 years. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says we are still waiting to see the hard data from April. T...