July 16, 2025 • 38 mins
In America the Democrats are in crisis — leaderless, divided, and drifting after Donald Trump’s return to power, and on the left, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC), Bernie Sanders and the Democrat's New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani are seizing the moment, but is their radicalism the way to beat Trump's Maga bandwagon?
Or will they end up alienating the majority of working class America? Tim Ryan, a senior advisor for the Progressive Policy Institute, is the former Ohio Congressman who stood for the senate but lost to JD Vance. He also threw his hat in the ring for the Democrats Presidential nomination when Joe Biden won it. He wants to haul his party back to focus on what he sees as the central concerns of working class voters - their cost of living and the fairness of the system, as well as working with business not against it - what he sometimes calls more of a Bill Clinton style. But is that really the answer to a Democrat resurrection?
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Episode Transcript
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(00:00):
The brand of the party as as left and super progressive is a
stone cold loser in American politics.
It's an asymmetric war, though, isn't it?
Because the right can go more and more radical, more and more
crazy come out, you know, with, with unsayable things.
But but the, you know, people like you are saying, well, the
left has got to stay sane and it's got to stay centrist.
(00:21):
You cannot be, you know, as outlandish as the right.
So what? Why does the right get to have
fun and the left has to has to be boring, you know?
Cuts to schools, cuts to farmers.
Once all that starts hitting theshow, that's that.
That you saying is fun isn't as fun anymore.
We have to have a centre left economic agenda for those
(00:45):
working class people. Which is what?
Hello and welcome to the forecast in America.
The Democrats are in crisis, leaderless, divided and drifting
after Trump's return to power. On the left, AOC, Bernie Sanders
and the Democrats New York mayoral candidate Zoran Mandani
are seizing the moment. But is their radicalism the way
(01:08):
to beat Trump's MAGA bandwagon or will they end up alienating
the majority of working class America?
Tim Ryan is the former Ohio congressman who stood for the
Senate but lost to JD Vance. He also threw his hat in the
ring for the Democrats presidential nomination when Joe
Biden won it. He's on what you might call the
centre or perhaps the centre right of his party and wants to
(01:29):
haul it back to what he sees as the central concerns of working
class voters, their cost of living and the fairness of the
system as well as working with business, not against it.
What he sometimes calls more of a Bill Clinton style.
Is that the answer to a Democratresurrection?
Tim Ryan, welcome. Thank you.
I mean, first of all, how sure are you that the American
(01:51):
Constitution and democracy is safe so that there's going to be
an election for you to win? Yeah, I, I think the system is
very resilient. This is by all accounts is a
stress test for our democracy. But I think it's strong.
I think it will withhold. There have been court rulings
(02:13):
that push back on some of the things that the president wants
to do with really expanding executive power and and going
against Congress and going against laws.
So he has some wins. There's no doubt that the
executive branch is becoming more powerful, but I think this
is system will survive. Do you think he's fundamentally
changed the way the American America will be governed now?
(02:36):
His use of executive orders? Basic.
Sort of. Yeah, I think so.
I think so. I think there's been more of a
consolidation of power. But he's a very, very unique
character in our political system in a lot of different
ways. The way he's been able to
assemble a coalition within the Republican Party of, of
moderates, of defense Hawks, of,you know, budget cutters and
(02:59):
deficit Hawks, even though they're blowing up the deficit,
he's still able to keep that coalition together.
I don't think it will stay together when he's gone.
I think it will fracture. I mean what?
Why are people who disagree withhim supporting him?
Is it fear? Yeah, it's fear.
They're they're afraid that he will support somebody in a
Republican primary and they willlose.
(03:22):
But because the. He's that powerful.
He's that powerful within the Republican Party now.
It's important for people to remember 57% of the American
people still think the country'son the wrong track.
So it's not like the entire country's enamoured with him.
He's able to control the Republican Party.
Why do you think he is able to sort of buck the political
(03:44):
trend, if you like in, in the, in this country, you know, the
cost of living is, is still so central that this Labour
government that was elected on amassive majority, a huge wave,
is already in trouble, is behindin the polls, is being blamed
for the fact that things haven'tchanged, even though they've
only been in power for a year. Yet Trump, who is also facing
(04:04):
rising inflation, he's not transforming people's lives.
Yet it doesn't seem to be being blamed for not delivering.
Yeah, I don't, I don't think yet.
But like I said, 57% of the country still thinks we're going
in the wrong direction. They're, they're still, we got
the report out just today on inflation, on appliances, on
(04:27):
HomeGoods. So his tariff practices are
starting to just starting to take hold now he's, he will pay
a price for that over time. He's so good at distraction and
being on TV and, and getting people to look away from, you
know, any criticism of, of him or his administration, which is
(04:50):
a real talent in this fractured media environment.
But eventually, his policies will take hold, his tax cut will
take hold. The impact on the debt and
deficits will impact the market.Generally speaking, it will
impact people's ability to buy cars, buy homes, all of that.
(05:11):
He will be in charge. And Republicans control the
House and the Senate as well. So at some point, it's hard to
tell when that will be. But at some point, that will hit
home. And so, so do you think there
will be a normal pendulum swing that this is normal politics for
how the Democrats come back or, or are these extraordinary times
that require an extraordinary shift?
(05:32):
I think in. Democrat Politics.
Somewhere in between. I think it's much different than
it normally is. But I think there will be a
blowback. Will it be in time for the
midterms? Hard to tell.
You know, we do have a tax cut that will have some effect in
the economy. And, and I think some people
(05:54):
like how he's handling immigration.
You know, there's obviously egregious examples, but
generally speaking, I think theylike the fact that he's getting
rid of people who shouldn't be in the country.
But at the same time, that's going to affect the workforce,
that's going to affect price of goods, especially around
agriculture. So when does that happen?
(06:16):
I don't know. Does it happen before the
midterms? Maybe?
So they may be able to hang on. Not sure.
But it will come home to roost because the laws of gravity, you
know, around economics are stillreal.
So let let's talk about some of the options the Democrats have.
I mean, if if radicalism is working for Trump on the right,
(06:36):
there is radicalism on the left that some Democrats are offering
now in AOC and Mamdani in New York.
What? Why do people like you think
that is so misguided? Well, one, I think their
solutions are wrong. Let me let me just say I think
Mandami's campaign was brilliant.
You know, I, I think finally somebody in the Democratic Party
(06:56):
really focused on the economic issues.
He talked a lot about affordability.
That clearly is where we need tobe as a party.
Problem is his solutions of the government run grocery stores
and free this and free that whenin a world where nothing's free.
I don't think that plays much outside of New York City.
(07:19):
And that's the problem Democratshave run into.
We're a very coastal party. It's been San Francisco and New
York and places like Ohio have been hurt by that brand for us.
What? Why?
What do? What do your voters think about
that kind of thing? What do they say?
Well, they, they're, they don't think it's true.
Like nothing's free. So if you're a construction
worker in a union in Ohio and you get up 6:00 in the morning
(07:41):
and drive to your work site and work all day long and come home
and barely see your kids becauseyou don't get home till 7:00 at
night. And you do that years and years
and years, decades and decades, you know nothing's free.
So to say you're. Paying for it.
You're paying. They're paying for it.
And that's where the Democratic brand has really hurt us.
I mean, we lost Pennsylvania as in the presidential race, which
(08:05):
is a Midwestern state basically,and the senator there lost.
We lost Ohio and the Democratic senator there lost.
We lost Jon Tester out in Montana, kind of a working class
Democrat. The brand of the party as as
left and super progressive is a stone cold loser in American
(08:25):
politics. We've seen that before, haven't
we, with Reagan? Yeah, I mean, you just can't.
That's why Bill Clinton even emerged after 12 years of us
being super liberal and focused on culture issues.
We lost working class people. And, and when it first started
in 16, a lot of people said, well, the Democrats lost white
(08:48):
working class people. But then in 1620 and then 24,
Trump did better with Latinos, and he did better with black
voters. Now imagine the way he talks
about immigration and yet his numbers among Latino voters go
up. Why?
Because it's not a monolithic group.
It's a group that votes economics.
(09:09):
They see Democrats as cultural and not in touch with working
people, regardless of their color.
And they didn't necessarily loveTrump.
Again, he's 57%. People still disapprove, but
they thought he was a better economic alternative because of
inflation and cost of goods and all of that.
(09:29):
So go. So going left will be a gift to
the to the Republicans. You know, Trump's pretty good at
this. And so when he saw Mondami 1,
the Republicans went crazy happily, like, OK, this is great
because Chuck Schumer's from NewYork.
Our leader in the House, Hakeem Jeffries, he's from New York.
So now our entire national leadership is now caught in a
(09:52):
mayoral race in which there was turn out wasn't huge.
And so it was a small sliver of New York City voted for
democratic socialist and now it's become part of the national
brand. And the Republicans love that,
which is why I'm doing the work I'm doing with Progressive
Policy Institute and others. We have to have a center left
economic agenda for those working class people.
(10:15):
Which is what? Well, which?
Is not just redistribution, it'sabout trying to actually grow
the pie, you know, invest into skills development.
I think that, you know, Biden's big plan was to forgive student
loans and everyone should go to college basically.
And that again, a lot of workingclass people reject that
(10:36):
premise. How do we invest in the skills,
invest into apprenticeships, embrace AI, embrace the
blockchain and the kind of things coming out of the
technologies coming out of the crypto industry, Embrace those,
embrace the ideas around healthcare and healthy living
and preventative medicine, reforming government.
(10:56):
You know, it's not a chainsaw ona stage with Elon Musk saying
we're going to just cut this thing.
It's about how do we modernize? How do we develop America 2
point O with these technologies around healthcare, education,
all the rest. That to me, I think is where the
American people are. And that's how you get growth
that kind of lifts everybody else up.
(11:16):
Again, investments in the infrastructure into our schools
and new ways of teaching our kids those kind of things.
And I think when if you put thatup against Trump, that's a more
thoughtful, realistic. And then don't forget balance
the budget, what you really never hear about on the left and
being responsible now you start to have some appeal to those
(11:39):
independent voters that pay attention and are concerned
about the debt and deficits as. Well, isn't that what Biden did
in 2020? He offered calm.
He offered intelligence. He offered, you know, some
thoughts about, you know, working class Americans, the
cost of living, all the things that people cared about.
Yeah, in 2020. And it didn't work.
No, it worked. It worked in 2020.
(12:02):
The problem was he gave the keysto the car to Elizabeth Warren
and the left on a variety of issues and, you know, more
spending, no balanced budgets. We were running deficits too,
bigger than we should have been.That was part of the problem,
You know, wading into a lot of the culture wars.
(12:24):
The student loan thing was really a big thing of of like
kind of disenfranchising workingpeople by saying we're going to
take your tax dollars. The construction worker I was
talking about or the retail, youknow, mom that's out there
working a second job, we're going to take your tax dollars
and we're going to pay it for some kid who went to college.
Those kind of decisions really hurt Biden.
(12:47):
What else heard Biden was his health, his inability to
articulate what I thought were some really good things that he
did, like the the CHIPS Act where we are incentivizing chip
manufacturing, really advanced high end manufacturing that we
should be doing in the United States.
The infrastructure bill. Trump had infrastructure week
200 weeks in a row in his first presidency, never got it done.
(13:10):
We were able to get that done. The Inflation Reduction Act,
investments in wind and solar, next generation of of energy.
Those are good things, but he could never because you.
Didn't get the credit for it well.
He couldn't go out and campaign on it like he he could not go to
a rally. He could not go do press events
and articulate the significance of actually having an industrial
(13:34):
policy in the United States. And so the Joe Biden of 2020,
who we were lucky he won that brand, was gone.
But do you think anyone can really win on complex economic
answers when you've got the other side waging culture war?
Yeah, I do. I mean, I don't think it's that
(13:54):
complicated to say, you know, weshould ask the wealthiest to pay
a little bit more, not because we hate them, but because
they've been doing really, really well.
I mean, there's a huge concentration of wealth and that
we should reform these broken systems that are driving people
crazy, you know, around, you know, credit card fees and
banking fees and the way the inability of the government
(14:16):
actually to provide services to people, whether it's healthcare,
education or getting a driver's license makes people mad, like
crazy mad. And and so I think wading into
that and saying we can do better.
And here are some some ideas that we have.
I think people don't give the American people enough credit.
(14:37):
Well, because the question is dolong term ideas win elections
now, you know, or or or does everything have to be tomorrow
an immediate and disruption now,because things like the chips
act very, very big structural changes, but you don't see the
the results straight away, do you?
You don't. No, you don't.
Well, you see the construction jobs happening, but again,
(14:58):
leaders have to lead and, and not having Biden able to go out
and make that case really hurt us, like really hurt the
Democrats because he could have went out and said, I know we're
not there yet, you know, but butwe're we're we're
reindustrializing. It took 40 years for us to get
to this point of, you know, globalization and automation.
And finally we got a policy. I need you to hang with me a
(15:21):
little bit. We're getting there.
We're going to rebuild the country, infrastructure, wind,
solar chips, you know, and, and,you know, that to me could have
Bill Clinton could have sold that.
Barack Obama could have sold that.
Trump could have sold that. I mean, there's a lot Ronald
Reagan could have sold that. Joe Biden was not capable.
So, so you are you are saying it's not so much about the
(15:41):
substance of what Democrats weredoing in power, It's about the
candidates. It's about the charisma of the
candidate. And that hurt us because we had
a void. And when you have a void and no
message and you gave the keys to, you know, the left and the
progressives, we became defined that way.
And that brand took down SherrodBrown as a senator in Ohio and
(16:05):
Bob Casey, you know, who was in Pennsylvania and Jon Tester and
didn't allow us to win the Houseback because of that national
brand. And if we could get back to a
reasonable economic, pragmatic strategy, we'll be back in the
game. I.
Mean isn't there a tendency in politics wherever it is to look
back and go, well, Bill Clinton would have won, Obama would have
(16:28):
won, Tony Blair would have won, you know, in, in in Britain, you
know, from a progressive left perspective.
And the truth is politics has always shifted.
You know, you're in a different contest.
The electors are in a different place economically.
So I mean, what what kind of Bill Clinton do you need now to
win? Because Bill Clinton on it, you
know, as he was, doesn't do it does.
(16:49):
He well, I mean, when I say Obama, Clinton, Reagan, I'm
talking talent. I'm talking someone willing to
knowing how to communicate. We didn't have that in the last
election. And so if we have someone who's
willing to now, you can't communicate democratic socialism
in any way, shape or form in theUnited States.
And when Pennsylvania, Michigan,Wisconsin, Arizona, North
(17:13):
Carolina, like that's not going to happen, You can't win voters
saying we're going to take from you and you know, everything's
free, not going to happen. And so someone who can
articulate the kind of pragmaticeconomic strategies that have
been shown to work, you know, I mean, when, when, when Bill
Clinton came in, everybody's income was going up.
(17:35):
The poor, the middle class, the wealthy made more money.
There's a way to do this. I, I sense an exhaustion in
America. There's an exhausted majority.
And a lot of that exhausted majority was so repelled by what
the Democrats are offering that they just went with Trump.
And now look, they're still 57% aren't satisfied.
(17:56):
So there's a there's a number ofpeople in there who if you offer
them that take the temperature down.
You know, James Carville, who was Bill Clinton's guy used to
say front, he was from Louisiana.
He used to say you need to to splain it to him.
You know, you got to explain to people what you're doing.
And I think I've watched Bill Clinton do this in a room full
of 1500 working class people. And they're hanging on every
(18:20):
word he says as he's like explaining interest rates in how
the hikes are affecting your ability to buy a freezer, you
know, on low interest. That's the kind of breakdown I
think the people are looking for.
Teach them what's going on. Tell them what's what's
happening. So how do you find that person?
Well, Democratic, the, the primary process usually is a
(18:43):
pretty good way of doing that. I mean, again, the problem that
we had is that we had people whowanted to run against Biden in a
primary and they basically rigged the primary.
I mean, they got, you know, New Hampshire was always the first
state in America and then it wasNew Hampshire, then South
Carolina. And but the Biden team switched
it to go right to South Carolinaand then they wouldn't let
(19:06):
anybody debate. Now, RFK Junior, you could say
whatever you want about them. OK, this is Bobby Kennedy's son,
right? This is American royalty.
Son couldn't get a debate with the president in the Democratic
primary because they cancel all the debates.
So you switch the primary and nodebates.
So that process that would have produced, you know, other people
(19:28):
would have gotten in. I mean, everybody saw it was
getting rigged. A lot of people would have got
in. That process for us usually
produces some pretty good candidates.
So you think the same process would again?
Yeah, I do. I do.
I think if you if you go back toNew Hampshire, South Carolina,
you know, you get working class kind of whites in New Hampshire,
(19:49):
you get working class blacks in South Carolina, you go out to
Nevada, you get working class Latinos.
I think that process. And then you go to Michigan,
which is industrial Midwest kindof, you know multicultural.
I think that process right thereis a pretty good one to kind of
vet any candidate to come out ofthat.
And I think the candidate that can survive that and come out of
(20:09):
that would be a pretty doggone good candidate for.
Us. I mean, isn't there a danger
that primary process will will become a competition for who can
condemn Trump the most? Who can be the most radical?
It could push all the candidatesinto into more left.
We had positions. Potentially we were worried
about that with Biden in the last and and Biden was kind of
(20:31):
the moderate in that group. He ended up winning Bill Clinton
same way took on a lot, a lot ofthe, you know, more progressive
people and came out of it the same way.
And so I think I think the Democrats rank and file
Democrats are pretty level headed.
They're they're pretty the rank and file.
They're pretty good at figuring out.
(20:53):
We like we like this person to go and take on whatever Mega
looks like at that point. And does it have to be somebody
from the middle of America? You know, it can't be a New
Yorker or a California. Forget it.
Gavin Newsom, you may look good,but you know, I don't think
you're not going to win America.It's not going to be Gavin
Newsom. You know, does it have to be
from middle America? I think I think middle America
(21:16):
will have an advantage in this one.
I think maybe, maybe from the South, you know some.
Another Bill Clinton. Yeah, I mean some, Yeah.
I mean, the Bill Clinton's, you know, there were a lot more
Democrats in the South. And does it have to be a man?
Why? I don't, I don't think it has to
be a man. I, I think if it's a, we have
two really good female candidates running for governor
right now. Both of them have national
(21:37):
security backgrounds, you know, So I think that, you know, for a
woman to run now with that kind of background, I think, I think
that's very doable. And and race, I mean, you know,
could it, could it be a black candidate again?
Ain't hard to tell. It really is hard to tell.
I think, I think your position on the economics are going to
(21:57):
mean a lot more. You know, we had voters, they
voted for Obama twice and then they voted for Trump.
You know, it's not the not all of mega is racist, you know,
like they're they're they're just vote for what they think is
best for them, you know, and I don't think they wade into the
race thing like a lot of. Other and do you think all the
(22:17):
runners are out there and identified or rather?
No, I don't think so. It's too early.
I mean, Trump just got sworn in in January.
So like we got 3 1/2 years till the election, you know, another
year, year and a half until people really start kind of
jumping in. I mean, it's such an alien
process looking at it from over here.
Yeah. You know, how, how do leaders
emerge in your system? Is, is, is pretty strange
(22:41):
because it seems to be about sort of TV coverage and, you
know, it's not necessarily aboutparty machines and not anymore,
you know. Yeah, not anymore.
I think the the attention now and Trump obviously mastered
that. How do you get attention?
I think Mondami, you know, was able to generate attention.
(23:02):
Yeah. And that means more now with
social media. You're going to get clips.
It's going to go on TikTok. It's going to go on Instagram.
People are going to see it even though they don't watch the
news, and they're going to know about.
You, I mean, it's an asymmetric war, though, isn't it?
Because the right can go more and more radical, more and more
crazy come out, you know, with, with unsayable things, you know,
things that nobody would imaginea government would do.
(23:24):
But but the, you know, people like you are saying, well, the
left has got to stay sane and it's got to stay centrist.
You cannot be, you know, as outlandish as the right.
So why does the right get to have fun and the left has has to
be boring, you know? Well, it's like, yeah, I think
like on is is insane. Some of the policies look and
(23:45):
sound like and may not work and violate laws and human rights
and due process and all the things we care about.
There is. I think there's a sensibility
among most Americans of like, look, but I think Trump gets
away with it because people do want the immigration issue to be
dealt with now. They don't want you deporting
(24:08):
people to countries that they don't come from, and they don't
want you deporting American citizens.
And they do want you to have dueprocess.
But generally speaking, if you aren't legally and documented in
the country, you shouldn't be there, you know, if you're not
going through the process. So at the top line level, Trump
is they agree with what Trump's trying to do.
(24:28):
So the Democrats should essentially adopt that
positions. I think the same position is we
want to keep the laws, we want to know who's coming into the
country. We want there to be a process,
we want there to be a pathway tocitizenship.
Immigrants are good for the economy, generally speaking,
with GDP and everything else. And so there's a way to do it,
but you got to get in line. It's really a values issue more
(24:51):
than anything else because that's why Trump did better
among Latinos in 2024 than he did in 2020.
Because even the Latinos who gotin line, now we're saying, wait,
I had to get in line. And you're just walking into the
country. And then the blowback of, you
know, they, they shipped a lot of these immigrants to New York
City and they were getting put up in a hotel and they were
(25:14):
getting $1000 food card. And this is the same issue here,
right? The average workers going with,
wait a minute, I I want $1000 food card.
I'm going to work every day. And so for Democrats to espouse
that position, but yet protect the sanctity of due process,
protect people from, you know, being deported to a prison in El
(25:34):
Salvador, You know, they're justtrying to make a better life for
themselves. You don't need to send them to
a, you know, a gulag. You just send them back to their
country. And if they're a refugee or
there's a humanitarian issue, I think America's big hearted
enough to say we want you to come here and be safe.
If you're living in, you know, Guatemala or some of these else,
you know, some of these countries that are having real
(25:55):
problems with gangs, we're big enough hearted of a country to
accept people like that. I mean, I'm so I'm not entirely
joking about the whole thing about sort of boring and fun,
you know, and that's it. It is a fact that in America it,
it is the outlandishness of the right that gets an attention on
social media and on television. Yeah.
And competence and decency just doesn't play as high, you know,
(26:20):
when it comes to entertainment value on social media and and
television. So Are you sure you can get the
attention for your candidates? Well, that you you need in order
to get people to like and know your people.
At some point. At some point, your policies do
matter, you know, And so the tariffs.
Are they for Trump? I mean they.
Didn't really did that. They they they've not hit home.
(26:44):
You know, the tariffs like I said are just starting to affect
costs back home. That's going to be a problem for
him in the tax bill primarily tothe top 1%.
OK, I don't think his folks are going to like that all that
much. You're also going to have
(27:04):
hundreds of billions of dollars in cuts to Medicaid, which is
our healthcare for poor and senior citizens.
Huge cuts. They don't come in till right
after the midterm so they delayed them.
Probably smart politically for them when those all start
hitting cuts to schools, cuts tofarmers, you know, deporting so
(27:28):
many people that agriculture is going to be affected.
So Agri businesses will be affected.
Once all that starts hitting theshow, that's that that you
saying is fun isn't as fun anymore.
You know, it's not just entertainment.
It's actually hitting my pocketbook.
And that's when we better be. This is kind of the work I'm
(27:48):
doing now. It's like we better be ready
when that moment happens and have the groundwork laid, have
the policies ready, the ideas ready, and then all of a sudden
it gets a little bit more serious than just pure
entertainment value. I mean, you, you might be up
against Jadie Vance, man, who you ran against and ultimately
lost. But.
But only closely, Yeah. I mean, what is he going to be
(28:12):
like as a presidential candidateif it's him?
I mean, is this the real JD Vance that we now see?
I mean, he's changed a lot over the years.
It's. Hard to it's hard to tell.
I, I don't think that there is anybody in the MAGA movement
right now that is anywhere near as good at politics and branding
(28:36):
and showmanship as Donald Trump is nowhere close.
Not JD Vance, you know, not Ramaswamy, not any of the
senators, no governors, no one can hold a candle.
This, this guy is a very unique political figure.
And, and again, that's another, he'll be stuck with all those
(28:58):
policies. He'll be stuck with the Medicaid
cuts like Trump will be gone. He'll be there and the inflation
and the tariffs and the debt anddeficits and all the effects
that's going to have on the economy.
He's going to have to hold that bag.
And I don't, I don't think he's going to be able to do it like
Trump. 'S I mean, I heard you say you
didn't really get on with him. I did not as as rivals.
(29:20):
It wasn't a friendly rivalry. No, not really.
I mean, do you think he's a decent man?
You know, I mean, like when you think back to sort of, you know,
how McCain spoke about Obama andsaid, you know, you may disagree
with him, but he's a decent man.He's a patriot, you know, Can
you say that about Eddie Vance, or do you think he's a.
Different I mean, I'm, you know,I'm not here to trash the vice
president personally. You know, I completely disagree
(29:41):
with how he's handled himself. And I think he he's he's very
talented in the sense that he tries to provide some kind of
intellectual framework to Trumpism when again, Trump is
out there just kind of doing histhing.
And so in that regard, he he tries to make it OK with some of
the stuff that is not OK. And so I just really disagree
(30:04):
with that. I don't think it's good for the
American people for us to call each other names.
I think that's going to be another thing that we're all
exhausted with. Like, OK, you know, I played a
lot of sports growing up. I didn't necessarily like the
people I played against. You know, I had disagreements
with them for whatever reason. And you, you shake their hand
before the game and you shake their hand after the game, and
(30:25):
you play by the rules during thegame and go about your life.
I feel like that's kind of how people want politics to, you
know, operate again. I mean, when when you look now
at what's happening to the rightand MAGA, I mean, do do you
think they are starting to fall apart?
Well, you see the Epstein stuff.I mean, that's really an
interesting thing. You, you saw a little bit of it
(30:47):
come out with the bombing in Iran.
You saw Steve Bannon and Tucker Carlson and these guys really
start to kind of chip away a little bit and say what's going
on here. But then it died down and now
you've got the whole conspiracy around the the Epstein's file
like the Trump kind of got. You know he pumped it.
(31:10):
He pumped it, right? So now you're getting hoisted by
your own petard, I guess they say.
And so this is going to be interesting to watch because it
doesn't seem like the base of his party really wants to let
this go. So it'll be interesting to see
how it plays out. And that could be like a
beginning. And then I think the debt and
deficit guys, there are some sincere guys.
(31:32):
I served in Congress for 20 years with them, very concerned
about the national debt, very concerned about the deficits
that we're running. And what Trump calls the big
beautiful bill. Right.
And that's just going to make itworse.
They got they got put in the line, the vote for that because
again, they didn't want a primary.
But there are some sincere guys.So when Trump's gone, that's
going to be a faction. The defense Hawks will be a
(31:54):
faction. The moderate Republicans who
are, you know, pro women's rights, pro gay rights, that'll
be a faction. I think this thing all just
fractures out. What?
Do you think the Epstein Rao tells us about the MAGA base?
That they may be mustering the courage to call the president
out if they think he's been insincere because a lot of these
(32:17):
folks really believe what he says.
You know, I mean, it's, I don't,I mean, I clearly don't.
I think there's a lot of people who don't even people who voted
for him, like he's just being Trump.
You know, I think there are a lot of people who really believe
that he like with the Epstein thing, he was going to be the
guy who was going to, you know, unleash this and, and let
everybody see it and provide transparency.
(32:39):
He was, he was the guy who's going to go into the deep state,
you know, and we're going to know about Kennedy and we're
going to know about Martin Luther King and we're going to
know about all these things and the CIA and all the all the kind
of history that we have in our country.
He was supposed to be the guy that was going to unveil all
that, so. Is it the first example, I
suppose, of if you promise change, you've got to deliver it
or you will be turned on by yourown supporters?
(33:01):
Yeah, I mean, especially if you get conspiracy theorists like
believing you, they'll be quick to turn on you because now you
may be part of the conspiracy, you know that I think they may
be quicker to to say it's it's interesting that this conspiracy
theory, if it is a theory, who knows?
I mean, I don't even I don't know what's going on, but that
those are the first people to say you're lying about this.
(33:23):
I. Mean do you think the Democrats
should attack Trump more for hisown relationship with Epstein?
I mean, if any politician had a long running relationship with
Epstein, it was Trump. I, I don't because I think those
folks will like, let leave it tothem, leave it to them.
We, we have to get back on an economic message.
We've tried being 100% anti Trump.
We can have an opinion about it.Of course it's disgusting.
(33:43):
If he has anything to do with it, you know, we need to take
action. Of course that's going to be our
position. But we spent 1620 and 24, all we
did was talk about Trump. You know, Biden was barely able
to slide by in 20 because of thepandemic and he wasn't able to
be out campaigning either. Like so this he really benefited
from that as well. Barely beat him in 20.
(34:06):
And each time we just talked about him, American people want
to know what we're for. And so I, I think going down
that rabbit hole like that will take care of itself.
The media will take care of that.
You know, we could maybe do a couple things here or there to
to, you know, state our position, but that can't
dominate. So again.
Culture world, culture. War works for them, but it
doesn't work for Democrats. Well, it works for them because
(34:29):
a lot of the size of the culturewar, like, you know, when you
talk about trans rights or something, they're in the
majority of opinion. But here's the thing that's
really interesting about, you know, we, we don't have to
change our positions on things. So I'm not advocating that we
should be anti women's rights orwe should turn on the gay rights
(34:52):
community. I don't I don't say that at all.
We can keep our positions. The problem is we've prioritized
those. So those become the lead
positions. Like the national brand of
Democrats is what that's all we want to talk about.
And so we've got to front load the economic stuff.
Because when you walk into a room in Youngstown, OH, if
there's 100 people there, 100 ofthem, their first 7 to 10 issues
(35:16):
are all economic. Their mortgage, their rent,
their prescription drug cost, their local taxes, whatever.
You know, those are mostly economic issues.
And if we show up and start talking culture, they think you
don't identify with me at all and and you don't understand me.
And then they vote for for Trump.
(35:36):
The the fact. And let me let me just say real
quick too, because Republicans bring up the culture wars.
The problem is we engage them and go down the rabbit hole with
them and then we look like that's what we want to talk
about. We should say don't take the
bait. Don't take the bait and get
back. We want to talk about economics.
You guys want to talk about that, fine.
And I think Labour's learning that too here is with the reform
(35:59):
movement, like you guys talk about that.
We're talking, we're staying on our message.
And I think from what I heard this week, I think that's what
they plan on doing too. I.
Mean that's true to an extent ofthe Labour's been pulled down,
the immigration, you know, rabbit hole to some degree and
it's sort of moving on to that, that turf.
So it's a difficult one to sort of hold your position on, isn't
(36:20):
it? I mean, your confidence about
sort of how winnable the next election is seems to depend on
it not being Donald Trump you'refacing.
Are you 100% certain it won't be?
That he won't find some way of running again?
I don't, I don't think so. I don't think it'll be him.
And I, I do think a candidate like the one we're talking about
(36:42):
would have beat Trump in 24. You know, if you were talking
about the kind of things we're talking about, He was not.
The country didn't want Trump orBiden, you know, And so again,
the brand of our party had a lotof people go, I don't want to
vote for either of these guys, but you know, I'm going to vote
for Trump. If we would have had some other
candidate, we would have beat Trump 5545.
(37:05):
So again, it's not like the entire country is enamored with
them. It's just that compared to what
he was running against. And I think the big problem was
when Kamala Harris was on The View and they asked her popular
daily morning TV show, they asked her, what would you do
differently than Joe Biden? And it's right after she got in
(37:27):
and she said, I can't think of anything I would do differently.
That was it. Like now you're Joe Biden and
in. That it was an impossible
position there, wasn't it? Because she was his vice
president should have had to turn on him.
Yeah, but and. She should have done.
I mean, I I would say turn on melike it's more important my
feelings, I'll get over. It he should have licensed.
It he should have blessed it, ofcourse, you know, and I don't
(37:51):
know why he didn't because of the stakes for the country I.
Mean you. You threw your hat in the ring
some years ago, are you? Are you considering it again?
I may, I mean, I'm, I'm enjoyingbeing out.
I'm, I'm in London and hanging out with you.
You know, there's a, this is a great town.
You know, I told my wife I may have one more election in me.
(38:14):
I don't know when that will be, but I'm enjoying kind of being
out. I'm, I'm coaching my son this
football team, American football, because.
People have been wondering if you'll go for governor as well,
haven't they? Yeah, you're thinking about.
That yeah, I'm thinking about it.
I'm thinking about it. Yeah, it's it's I, you know, I
spent 20 years in, I missed a lot of my kids stuff and now I'm
like coaching and really gettingtime with the family.
They're here with me in London and it's been a lot of fun.
(38:37):
So I got, you know, if I do jumpback in, that's like, you know,
I got to get a few votes in the House before I even make an
announcement. So we'll see how that goes.
Well, if you do stay in touch tomorrow.
Thank you very much indeed. Appreciate it.
And that's it for this episode of the Forecast.
Until next time, bye bye.
The brand of the party as as left and super progressive is a
stone cold loser in American politics.
It's an asymmetric war, though, isn't it?
Because the right can go more and more radical, more and more
crazy come out, you know, with, with unsayable things.
But but the, you know, people like you are saying, well, the
left has got to stay sane and it's got to stay centrist.
(00:21):
You cannot be, you know, as outlandish as the right.
So what? Why does the right get to have
fun and the left has to has to be boring, you know?
Cuts to schools, cuts to farmers.
Once all that starts hitting theshow, that's that.
That you saying is fun isn't as fun anymore.
We have to have a centre left economic agenda for those
(00:45):
working class people. Which is what?
Hello and welcome to the forecast in America.
The Democrats are in crisis, leaderless, divided and drifting
after Trump's return to power. On the left, AOC, Bernie Sanders
and the Democrats New York mayoral candidate Zoran Mandani
are seizing the moment. But is their radicalism the way
(01:08):
to beat Trump's MAGA bandwagon or will they end up alienating
the majority of working class America?
Tim Ryan is the former Ohio congressman who stood for the
Senate but lost to JD Vance. He also threw his hat in the
ring for the Democrats presidential nomination when Joe
Biden won it. He's on what you might call the
centre or perhaps the centre right of his party and wants to
(01:29):
haul it back to what he sees as the central concerns of working
class voters, their cost of living and the fairness of the
system as well as working with business, not against it.
What he sometimes calls more of a Bill Clinton style.
Is that the answer to a Democratresurrection?
Tim Ryan, welcome. Thank you.
I mean, first of all, how sure are you that the American
(01:51):
Constitution and democracy is safe so that there's going to be
an election for you to win? Yeah, I, I think the system is
very resilient. This is by all accounts is a
stress test for our democracy. But I think it's strong.
I think it will withhold. There have been court rulings
(02:13):
that push back on some of the things that the president wants
to do with really expanding executive power and and going
against Congress and going against laws.
So he has some wins. There's no doubt that the
executive branch is becoming more powerful, but I think this
is system will survive. Do you think he's fundamentally
changed the way the American America will be governed now?
(02:36):
His use of executive orders? Basic.
Sort of. Yeah, I think so.
I think so. I think there's been more of a
consolidation of power. But he's a very, very unique
character in our political system in a lot of different
ways. The way he's been able to
assemble a coalition within the Republican Party of, of
moderates, of defense Hawks, of,you know, budget cutters and
(02:59):
deficit Hawks, even though they're blowing up the deficit,
he's still able to keep that coalition together.
I don't think it will stay together when he's gone.
I think it will fracture. I mean what?
Why are people who disagree withhim supporting him?
Is it fear? Yeah, it's fear.
They're they're afraid that he will support somebody in a
Republican primary and they willlose.
(03:22):
But because the. He's that powerful.
He's that powerful within the Republican Party now.
It's important for people to remember 57% of the American
people still think the country'son the wrong track.
So it's not like the entire country's enamoured with him.
He's able to control the Republican Party.
Why do you think he is able to sort of buck the political
(03:44):
trend, if you like in, in the, in this country, you know, the
cost of living is, is still so central that this Labour
government that was elected on amassive majority, a huge wave,
is already in trouble, is behindin the polls, is being blamed
for the fact that things haven'tchanged, even though they've
only been in power for a year. Yet Trump, who is also facing
(04:04):
rising inflation, he's not transforming people's lives.
Yet it doesn't seem to be being blamed for not delivering.
Yeah, I don't, I don't think yet.
But like I said, 57% of the country still thinks we're going
in the wrong direction. They're, they're still, we got
the report out just today on inflation, on appliances, on
(04:27):
HomeGoods. So his tariff practices are
starting to just starting to take hold now he's, he will pay
a price for that over time. He's so good at distraction and
being on TV and, and getting people to look away from, you
know, any criticism of, of him or his administration, which is
(04:50):
a real talent in this fractured media environment.
But eventually, his policies will take hold, his tax cut will
take hold. The impact on the debt and
deficits will impact the market.Generally speaking, it will
impact people's ability to buy cars, buy homes, all of that.
(05:11):
He will be in charge. And Republicans control the
House and the Senate as well. So at some point, it's hard to
tell when that will be. But at some point, that will hit
home. And so, so do you think there
will be a normal pendulum swing that this is normal politics for
how the Democrats come back or, or are these extraordinary times
that require an extraordinary shift?
(05:32):
I think in. Democrat Politics.
Somewhere in between. I think it's much different than
it normally is. But I think there will be a
blowback. Will it be in time for the
midterms? Hard to tell.
You know, we do have a tax cut that will have some effect in
the economy. And, and I think some people
(05:54):
like how he's handling immigration.
You know, there's obviously egregious examples, but
generally speaking, I think theylike the fact that he's getting
rid of people who shouldn't be in the country.
But at the same time, that's going to affect the workforce,
that's going to affect price of goods, especially around
agriculture. So when does that happen?
(06:16):
I don't know. Does it happen before the
midterms? Maybe?
So they may be able to hang on. Not sure.
But it will come home to roost because the laws of gravity, you
know, around economics are stillreal.
So let let's talk about some of the options the Democrats have.
I mean, if if radicalism is working for Trump on the right,
(06:36):
there is radicalism on the left that some Democrats are offering
now in AOC and Mamdani in New York.
What? Why do people like you think
that is so misguided? Well, one, I think their
solutions are wrong. Let me let me just say I think
Mandami's campaign was brilliant.
You know, I, I think finally somebody in the Democratic Party
(06:56):
really focused on the economic issues.
He talked a lot about affordability.
That clearly is where we need tobe as a party.
Problem is his solutions of the government run grocery stores
and free this and free that whenin a world where nothing's free.
I don't think that plays much outside of New York City.
(07:19):
And that's the problem Democratshave run into.
We're a very coastal party. It's been San Francisco and New
York and places like Ohio have been hurt by that brand for us.
What? Why?
What do? What do your voters think about
that kind of thing? What do they say?
Well, they, they're, they don't think it's true.
Like nothing's free. So if you're a construction
worker in a union in Ohio and you get up 6:00 in the morning
(07:41):
and drive to your work site and work all day long and come home
and barely see your kids becauseyou don't get home till 7:00 at
night. And you do that years and years
and years, decades and decades, you know nothing's free.
So to say you're. Paying for it.
You're paying. They're paying for it.
And that's where the Democratic brand has really hurt us.
I mean, we lost Pennsylvania as in the presidential race, which
(08:05):
is a Midwestern state basically,and the senator there lost.
We lost Ohio and the Democratic senator there lost.
We lost Jon Tester out in Montana, kind of a working class
Democrat. The brand of the party as as
left and super progressive is a stone cold loser in American
(08:25):
politics. We've seen that before, haven't
we, with Reagan? Yeah, I mean, you just can't.
That's why Bill Clinton even emerged after 12 years of us
being super liberal and focused on culture issues.
We lost working class people. And, and when it first started
in 16, a lot of people said, well, the Democrats lost white
(08:48):
working class people. But then in 1620 and then 24,
Trump did better with Latinos, and he did better with black
voters. Now imagine the way he talks
about immigration and yet his numbers among Latino voters go
up. Why?
Because it's not a monolithic group.
It's a group that votes economics.
(09:09):
They see Democrats as cultural and not in touch with working
people, regardless of their color.
And they didn't necessarily loveTrump.
Again, he's 57%. People still disapprove, but
they thought he was a better economic alternative because of
inflation and cost of goods and all of that.
(09:29):
So go. So going left will be a gift to
the to the Republicans. You know, Trump's pretty good at
this. And so when he saw Mondami 1,
the Republicans went crazy happily, like, OK, this is great
because Chuck Schumer's from NewYork.
Our leader in the House, Hakeem Jeffries, he's from New York.
So now our entire national leadership is now caught in a
(09:52):
mayoral race in which there was turn out wasn't huge.
And so it was a small sliver of New York City voted for
democratic socialist and now it's become part of the national
brand. And the Republicans love that,
which is why I'm doing the work I'm doing with Progressive
Policy Institute and others. We have to have a center left
economic agenda for those working class people.
(10:15):
Which is what? Well, which?
Is not just redistribution, it'sabout trying to actually grow
the pie, you know, invest into skills development.
I think that, you know, Biden's big plan was to forgive student
loans and everyone should go to college basically.
And that again, a lot of workingclass people reject that
(10:36):
premise. How do we invest in the skills,
invest into apprenticeships, embrace AI, embrace the
blockchain and the kind of things coming out of the
technologies coming out of the crypto industry, Embrace those,
embrace the ideas around healthcare and healthy living
and preventative medicine, reforming government.
(10:56):
You know, it's not a chainsaw ona stage with Elon Musk saying
we're going to just cut this thing.
It's about how do we modernize? How do we develop America 2
point O with these technologies around healthcare, education,
all the rest. That to me, I think is where the
American people are. And that's how you get growth
that kind of lifts everybody else up.
(11:16):
Again, investments in the infrastructure into our schools
and new ways of teaching our kids those kind of things.
And I think when if you put thatup against Trump, that's a more
thoughtful, realistic. And then don't forget balance
the budget, what you really never hear about on the left and
being responsible now you start to have some appeal to those
(11:39):
independent voters that pay attention and are concerned
about the debt and deficits as. Well, isn't that what Biden did
in 2020? He offered calm.
He offered intelligence. He offered, you know, some
thoughts about, you know, working class Americans, the
cost of living, all the things that people cared about.
Yeah, in 2020. And it didn't work.
No, it worked. It worked in 2020.
(12:02):
The problem was he gave the keysto the car to Elizabeth Warren
and the left on a variety of issues and, you know, more
spending, no balanced budgets. We were running deficits too,
bigger than we should have been.That was part of the problem,
You know, wading into a lot of the culture wars.
(12:24):
The student loan thing was really a big thing of of like
kind of disenfranchising workingpeople by saying we're going to
take your tax dollars. The construction worker I was
talking about or the retail, youknow, mom that's out there
working a second job, we're going to take your tax dollars
and we're going to pay it for some kid who went to college.
Those kind of decisions really hurt Biden.
(12:47):
What else heard Biden was his health, his inability to
articulate what I thought were some really good things that he
did, like the the CHIPS Act where we are incentivizing chip
manufacturing, really advanced high end manufacturing that we
should be doing in the United States.
The infrastructure bill. Trump had infrastructure week
200 weeks in a row in his first presidency, never got it done.
(13:10):
We were able to get that done. The Inflation Reduction Act,
investments in wind and solar, next generation of of energy.
Those are good things, but he could never because you.
Didn't get the credit for it well.
He couldn't go out and campaign on it like he he could not go to
a rally. He could not go do press events
and articulate the significance of actually having an industrial
(13:34):
policy in the United States. And so the Joe Biden of 2020,
who we were lucky he won that brand, was gone.
But do you think anyone can really win on complex economic
answers when you've got the other side waging culture war?
Yeah, I do. I mean, I don't think it's that
(13:54):
complicated to say, you know, weshould ask the wealthiest to pay
a little bit more, not because we hate them, but because
they've been doing really, really well.
I mean, there's a huge concentration of wealth and that
we should reform these broken systems that are driving people
crazy, you know, around, you know, credit card fees and
banking fees and the way the inability of the government
(14:16):
actually to provide services to people, whether it's healthcare,
education or getting a driver's license makes people mad, like
crazy mad. And and so I think wading into
that and saying we can do better.
And here are some some ideas that we have.
I think people don't give the American people enough credit.
(14:37):
Well, because the question is dolong term ideas win elections
now, you know, or or or does everything have to be tomorrow
an immediate and disruption now,because things like the chips
act very, very big structural changes, but you don't see the
the results straight away, do you?
You don't. No, you don't.
Well, you see the construction jobs happening, but again,
(14:58):
leaders have to lead and, and not having Biden able to go out
and make that case really hurt us, like really hurt the
Democrats because he could have went out and said, I know we're
not there yet, you know, but butwe're we're we're
reindustrializing. It took 40 years for us to get
to this point of, you know, globalization and automation.
And finally we got a policy. I need you to hang with me a
(15:21):
little bit. We're getting there.
We're going to rebuild the country, infrastructure, wind,
solar chips, you know, and, and,you know, that to me could have
Bill Clinton could have sold that.
Barack Obama could have sold that.
Trump could have sold that. I mean, there's a lot Ronald
Reagan could have sold that. Joe Biden was not capable.
So, so you are you are saying it's not so much about the
(15:41):
substance of what Democrats weredoing in power, It's about the
candidates. It's about the charisma of the
candidate. And that hurt us because we had
a void. And when you have a void and no
message and you gave the keys to, you know, the left and the
progressives, we became defined that way.
And that brand took down SherrodBrown as a senator in Ohio and
(16:05):
Bob Casey, you know, who was in Pennsylvania and Jon Tester and
didn't allow us to win the Houseback because of that national
brand. And if we could get back to a
reasonable economic, pragmatic strategy, we'll be back in the
game. I.
Mean isn't there a tendency in politics wherever it is to look
back and go, well, Bill Clinton would have won, Obama would have
(16:28):
won, Tony Blair would have won, you know, in, in in Britain, you
know, from a progressive left perspective.
And the truth is politics has always shifted.
You know, you're in a different contest.
The electors are in a different place economically.
So I mean, what what kind of Bill Clinton do you need now to
win? Because Bill Clinton on it, you
know, as he was, doesn't do it does.
(16:49):
He well, I mean, when I say Obama, Clinton, Reagan, I'm
talking talent. I'm talking someone willing to
knowing how to communicate. We didn't have that in the last
election. And so if we have someone who's
willing to now, you can't communicate democratic socialism
in any way, shape or form in theUnited States.
And when Pennsylvania, Michigan,Wisconsin, Arizona, North
(17:13):
Carolina, like that's not going to happen, You can't win voters
saying we're going to take from you and you know, everything's
free, not going to happen. And so someone who can
articulate the kind of pragmaticeconomic strategies that have
been shown to work, you know, I mean, when, when, when Bill
Clinton came in, everybody's income was going up.
(17:35):
The poor, the middle class, the wealthy made more money.
There's a way to do this. I, I sense an exhaustion in
America. There's an exhausted majority.
And a lot of that exhausted majority was so repelled by what
the Democrats are offering that they just went with Trump.
And now look, they're still 57% aren't satisfied.
(17:56):
So there's a there's a number ofpeople in there who if you offer
them that take the temperature down.
You know, James Carville, who was Bill Clinton's guy used to
say front, he was from Louisiana.
He used to say you need to to splain it to him.
You know, you got to explain to people what you're doing.
And I think I've watched Bill Clinton do this in a room full
of 1500 working class people. And they're hanging on every
(18:20):
word he says as he's like explaining interest rates in how
the hikes are affecting your ability to buy a freezer, you
know, on low interest. That's the kind of breakdown I
think the people are looking for.
Teach them what's going on. Tell them what's what's
happening. So how do you find that person?
Well, Democratic, the, the primary process usually is a
(18:43):
pretty good way of doing that. I mean, again, the problem that
we had is that we had people whowanted to run against Biden in a
primary and they basically rigged the primary.
I mean, they got, you know, New Hampshire was always the first
state in America and then it wasNew Hampshire, then South
Carolina. And but the Biden team switched
it to go right to South Carolinaand then they wouldn't let
(19:06):
anybody debate. Now, RFK Junior, you could say
whatever you want about them. OK, this is Bobby Kennedy's son,
right? This is American royalty.
Son couldn't get a debate with the president in the Democratic
primary because they cancel all the debates.
So you switch the primary and nodebates.
So that process that would have produced, you know, other people
(19:28):
would have gotten in. I mean, everybody saw it was
getting rigged. A lot of people would have got
in. That process for us usually
produces some pretty good candidates.
So you think the same process would again?
Yeah, I do. I do.
I think if you if you go back toNew Hampshire, South Carolina,
you know, you get working class kind of whites in New Hampshire,
(19:49):
you get working class blacks in South Carolina, you go out to
Nevada, you get working class Latinos.
I think that process. And then you go to Michigan,
which is industrial Midwest kindof, you know multicultural.
I think that process right thereis a pretty good one to kind of
vet any candidate to come out ofthat.
And I think the candidate that can survive that and come out of
(20:09):
that would be a pretty doggone good candidate for.
Us. I mean, isn't there a danger
that primary process will will become a competition for who can
condemn Trump the most? Who can be the most radical?
It could push all the candidatesinto into more left.
We had positions. Potentially we were worried
about that with Biden in the last and and Biden was kind of
(20:31):
the moderate in that group. He ended up winning Bill Clinton
same way took on a lot, a lot ofthe, you know, more progressive
people and came out of it the same way.
And so I think I think the Democrats rank and file
Democrats are pretty level headed.
They're they're pretty the rank and file.
They're pretty good at figuring out.
(20:53):
We like we like this person to go and take on whatever Mega
looks like at that point. And does it have to be somebody
from the middle of America? You know, it can't be a New
Yorker or a California. Forget it.
Gavin Newsom, you may look good,but you know, I don't think
you're not going to win America.It's not going to be Gavin
Newsom. You know, does it have to be
from middle America? I think I think middle America
(21:16):
will have an advantage in this one.
I think maybe, maybe from the South, you know some.
Another Bill Clinton. Yeah, I mean some, Yeah.
I mean, the Bill Clinton's, you know, there were a lot more
Democrats in the South. And does it have to be a man?
Why? I don't, I don't think it has to
be a man. I, I think if it's a, we have
two really good female candidates running for governor
right now. Both of them have national
(21:37):
security backgrounds, you know, So I think that, you know, for a
woman to run now with that kind of background, I think, I think
that's very doable. And and race, I mean, you know,
could it, could it be a black candidate again?
Ain't hard to tell. It really is hard to tell.
I think, I think your position on the economics are going to
(21:57):
mean a lot more. You know, we had voters, they
voted for Obama twice and then they voted for Trump.
You know, it's not the not all of mega is racist, you know,
like they're they're they're just vote for what they think is
best for them, you know, and I don't think they wade into the
race thing like a lot of. Other and do you think all the
(22:17):
runners are out there and identified or rather?
No, I don't think so. It's too early.
I mean, Trump just got sworn in in January.
So like we got 3 1/2 years till the election, you know, another
year, year and a half until people really start kind of
jumping in. I mean, it's such an alien
process looking at it from over here.
Yeah. You know, how, how do leaders
emerge in your system? Is, is, is pretty strange
(22:41):
because it seems to be about sort of TV coverage and, you
know, it's not necessarily aboutparty machines and not anymore,
you know. Yeah, not anymore.
I think the the attention now and Trump obviously mastered
that. How do you get attention?
I think Mondami, you know, was able to generate attention.
(23:02):
Yeah. And that means more now with
social media. You're going to get clips.
It's going to go on TikTok. It's going to go on Instagram.
People are going to see it even though they don't watch the
news, and they're going to know about.
You, I mean, it's an asymmetric war, though, isn't it?
Because the right can go more and more radical, more and more
crazy come out, you know, with, with unsayable things, you know,
things that nobody would imaginea government would do.
(23:24):
But but the, you know, people like you are saying, well, the
left has got to stay sane and it's got to stay centrist.
You cannot be, you know, as outlandish as the right.
So why does the right get to have fun and the left has has to
be boring, you know? Well, it's like, yeah, I think
like on is is insane. Some of the policies look and
(23:45):
sound like and may not work and violate laws and human rights
and due process and all the things we care about.
There is. I think there's a sensibility
among most Americans of like, look, but I think Trump gets
away with it because people do want the immigration issue to be
dealt with now. They don't want you deporting
(24:08):
people to countries that they don't come from, and they don't
want you deporting American citizens.
And they do want you to have dueprocess.
But generally speaking, if you aren't legally and documented in
the country, you shouldn't be there, you know, if you're not
going through the process. So at the top line level, Trump
is they agree with what Trump's trying to do.
(24:28):
So the Democrats should essentially adopt that
positions. I think the same position is we
want to keep the laws, we want to know who's coming into the
country. We want there to be a process,
we want there to be a pathway tocitizenship.
Immigrants are good for the economy, generally speaking,
with GDP and everything else. And so there's a way to do it,
but you got to get in line. It's really a values issue more
(24:51):
than anything else because that's why Trump did better
among Latinos in 2024 than he did in 2020.
Because even the Latinos who gotin line, now we're saying, wait,
I had to get in line. And you're just walking into the
country. And then the blowback of, you
know, they, they shipped a lot of these immigrants to New York
City and they were getting put up in a hotel and they were
(25:14):
getting $1000 food card. And this is the same issue here,
right? The average workers going with,
wait a minute, I I want $1000 food card.
I'm going to work every day. And so for Democrats to espouse
that position, but yet protect the sanctity of due process,
protect people from, you know, being deported to a prison in El
(25:34):
Salvador, You know, they're justtrying to make a better life for
themselves. You don't need to send them to
a, you know, a gulag. You just send them back to their
country. And if they're a refugee or
there's a humanitarian issue, I think America's big hearted
enough to say we want you to come here and be safe.
If you're living in, you know, Guatemala or some of these else,
you know, some of these countries that are having real
(25:55):
problems with gangs, we're big enough hearted of a country to
accept people like that. I mean, I'm so I'm not entirely
joking about the whole thing about sort of boring and fun,
you know, and that's it. It is a fact that in America it,
it is the outlandishness of the right that gets an attention on
social media and on television. Yeah.
And competence and decency just doesn't play as high, you know,
(26:20):
when it comes to entertainment value on social media and and
television. So Are you sure you can get the
attention for your candidates? Well, that you you need in order
to get people to like and know your people.
At some point. At some point, your policies do
matter, you know, And so the tariffs.
Are they for Trump? I mean they.
Didn't really did that. They they they've not hit home.
(26:44):
You know, the tariffs like I said are just starting to affect
costs back home. That's going to be a problem for
him in the tax bill primarily tothe top 1%.
OK, I don't think his folks are going to like that all that
much. You're also going to have
(27:04):
hundreds of billions of dollars in cuts to Medicaid, which is
our healthcare for poor and senior citizens.
Huge cuts. They don't come in till right
after the midterm so they delayed them.
Probably smart politically for them when those all start
hitting cuts to schools, cuts tofarmers, you know, deporting so
(27:28):
many people that agriculture is going to be affected.
So Agri businesses will be affected.
Once all that starts hitting theshow, that's that that you
saying is fun isn't as fun anymore.
You know, it's not just entertainment.
It's actually hitting my pocketbook.
And that's when we better be. This is kind of the work I'm
(27:48):
doing now. It's like we better be ready
when that moment happens and have the groundwork laid, have
the policies ready, the ideas ready, and then all of a sudden
it gets a little bit more serious than just pure
entertainment value. I mean, you, you might be up
against Jadie Vance, man, who you ran against and ultimately
lost. But.
But only closely, Yeah. I mean, what is he going to be
(28:12):
like as a presidential candidateif it's him?
I mean, is this the real JD Vance that we now see?
I mean, he's changed a lot over the years.
It's. Hard to it's hard to tell.
I, I don't think that there is anybody in the MAGA movement
right now that is anywhere near as good at politics and branding
(28:36):
and showmanship as Donald Trump is nowhere close.
Not JD Vance, you know, not Ramaswamy, not any of the
senators, no governors, no one can hold a candle.
This, this guy is a very unique political figure.
And, and again, that's another, he'll be stuck with all those
(28:58):
policies. He'll be stuck with the Medicaid
cuts like Trump will be gone. He'll be there and the inflation
and the tariffs and the debt anddeficits and all the effects
that's going to have on the economy.
He's going to have to hold that bag.
And I don't, I don't think he's going to be able to do it like
Trump. 'S I mean, I heard you say you
didn't really get on with him. I did not as as rivals.
(29:20):
It wasn't a friendly rivalry. No, not really.
I mean, do you think he's a decent man?
You know, I mean, like when you think back to sort of, you know,
how McCain spoke about Obama andsaid, you know, you may disagree
with him, but he's a decent man.He's a patriot, you know, Can
you say that about Eddie Vance, or do you think he's a.
Different I mean, I'm, you know,I'm not here to trash the vice
president personally. You know, I completely disagree
(29:41):
with how he's handled himself. And I think he he's he's very
talented in the sense that he tries to provide some kind of
intellectual framework to Trumpism when again, Trump is
out there just kind of doing histhing.
And so in that regard, he he tries to make it OK with some of
the stuff that is not OK. And so I just really disagree
(30:04):
with that. I don't think it's good for the
American people for us to call each other names.
I think that's going to be another thing that we're all
exhausted with. Like, OK, you know, I played a
lot of sports growing up. I didn't necessarily like the
people I played against. You know, I had disagreements
with them for whatever reason. And you, you shake their hand
before the game and you shake their hand after the game, and
(30:25):
you play by the rules during thegame and go about your life.
I feel like that's kind of how people want politics to, you
know, operate again. I mean, when when you look now
at what's happening to the rightand MAGA, I mean, do do you
think they are starting to fall apart?
Well, you see the Epstein stuff.I mean, that's really an
interesting thing. You, you saw a little bit of it
(30:47):
come out with the bombing in Iran.
You saw Steve Bannon and Tucker Carlson and these guys really
start to kind of chip away a little bit and say what's going
on here. But then it died down and now
you've got the whole conspiracy around the the Epstein's file
like the Trump kind of got. You know he pumped it.
(31:10):
He pumped it, right? So now you're getting hoisted by
your own petard, I guess they say.
And so this is going to be interesting to watch because it
doesn't seem like the base of his party really wants to let
this go. So it'll be interesting to see
how it plays out. And that could be like a
beginning. And then I think the debt and
deficit guys, there are some sincere guys.
(31:32):
I served in Congress for 20 years with them, very concerned
about the national debt, very concerned about the deficits
that we're running. And what Trump calls the big
beautiful bill. Right.
And that's just going to make itworse.
They got they got put in the line, the vote for that because
again, they didn't want a primary.
But there are some sincere guys.So when Trump's gone, that's
going to be a faction. The defense Hawks will be a
(31:54):
faction. The moderate Republicans who
are, you know, pro women's rights, pro gay rights, that'll
be a faction. I think this thing all just
fractures out. What?
Do you think the Epstein Rao tells us about the MAGA base?
That they may be mustering the courage to call the president
out if they think he's been insincere because a lot of these
(32:17):
folks really believe what he says.
You know, I mean, it's, I don't,I mean, I clearly don't.
I think there's a lot of people who don't even people who voted
for him, like he's just being Trump.
You know, I think there are a lot of people who really believe
that he like with the Epstein thing, he was going to be the
guy who was going to, you know, unleash this and, and let
everybody see it and provide transparency.
(32:39):
He was, he was the guy who's going to go into the deep state,
you know, and we're going to know about Kennedy and we're
going to know about Martin Luther King and we're going to
know about all these things and the CIA and all the all the kind
of history that we have in our country.
He was supposed to be the guy that was going to unveil all
that, so. Is it the first example, I
suppose, of if you promise change, you've got to deliver it
or you will be turned on by yourown supporters?
(33:01):
Yeah, I mean, especially if you get conspiracy theorists like
believing you, they'll be quick to turn on you because now you
may be part of the conspiracy, you know that I think they may
be quicker to to say it's it's interesting that this conspiracy
theory, if it is a theory, who knows?
I mean, I don't even I don't know what's going on, but that
those are the first people to say you're lying about this.
(33:23):
I. Mean do you think the Democrats
should attack Trump more for hisown relationship with Epstein?
I mean, if any politician had a long running relationship with
Epstein, it was Trump. I, I don't because I think those
folks will like, let leave it tothem, leave it to them.
We, we have to get back on an economic message.
We've tried being 100% anti Trump.
We can have an opinion about it.Of course it's disgusting.
(33:43):
If he has anything to do with it, you know, we need to take
action. Of course that's going to be our
position. But we spent 1620 and 24, all we
did was talk about Trump. You know, Biden was barely able
to slide by in 20 because of thepandemic and he wasn't able to
be out campaigning either. Like so this he really benefited
from that as well. Barely beat him in 20.
(34:06):
And each time we just talked about him, American people want
to know what we're for. And so I, I think going down
that rabbit hole like that will take care of itself.
The media will take care of that.
You know, we could maybe do a couple things here or there to
to, you know, state our position, but that can't
dominate. So again.
Culture world, culture. War works for them, but it
doesn't work for Democrats. Well, it works for them because
(34:29):
a lot of the size of the culturewar, like, you know, when you
talk about trans rights or something, they're in the
majority of opinion. But here's the thing that's
really interesting about, you know, we, we don't have to
change our positions on things. So I'm not advocating that we
should be anti women's rights orwe should turn on the gay rights
(34:52):
community. I don't I don't say that at all.
We can keep our positions. The problem is we've prioritized
those. So those become the lead
positions. Like the national brand of
Democrats is what that's all we want to talk about.
And so we've got to front load the economic stuff.
Because when you walk into a room in Youngstown, OH, if
there's 100 people there, 100 ofthem, their first 7 to 10 issues
(35:16):
are all economic. Their mortgage, their rent,
their prescription drug cost, their local taxes, whatever.
You know, those are mostly economic issues.
And if we show up and start talking culture, they think you
don't identify with me at all and and you don't understand me.
And then they vote for for Trump.
(35:36):
The the fact. And let me let me just say real
quick too, because Republicans bring up the culture wars.
The problem is we engage them and go down the rabbit hole with
them and then we look like that's what we want to talk
about. We should say don't take the
bait. Don't take the bait and get
back. We want to talk about economics.
You guys want to talk about that, fine.
And I think Labour's learning that too here is with the reform
(35:59):
movement, like you guys talk about that.
We're talking, we're staying on our message.
And I think from what I heard this week, I think that's what
they plan on doing too. I.
Mean that's true to an extent ofthe Labour's been pulled down,
the immigration, you know, rabbit hole to some degree and
it's sort of moving on to that, that turf.
So it's a difficult one to sort of hold your position on, isn't
(36:20):
it? I mean, your confidence about
sort of how winnable the next election is seems to depend on
it not being Donald Trump you'refacing.
Are you 100% certain it won't be?
That he won't find some way of running again?
I don't, I don't think so. I don't think it'll be him.
And I, I do think a candidate like the one we're talking about
(36:42):
would have beat Trump in 24. You know, if you were talking
about the kind of things we're talking about, He was not.
The country didn't want Trump orBiden, you know, And so again,
the brand of our party had a lotof people go, I don't want to
vote for either of these guys, but you know, I'm going to vote
for Trump. If we would have had some other
candidate, we would have beat Trump 5545.
(37:05):
So again, it's not like the entire country is enamored with
them. It's just that compared to what
he was running against. And I think the big problem was
when Kamala Harris was on The View and they asked her popular
daily morning TV show, they asked her, what would you do
differently than Joe Biden? And it's right after she got in
(37:27):
and she said, I can't think of anything I would do differently.
That was it. Like now you're Joe Biden and
in. That it was an impossible
position there, wasn't it? Because she was his vice
president should have had to turn on him.
Yeah, but and. She should have done.
I mean, I I would say turn on melike it's more important my
feelings, I'll get over. It he should have licensed.
It he should have blessed it, ofcourse, you know, and I don't
(37:51):
know why he didn't because of the stakes for the country I.
Mean you. You threw your hat in the ring
some years ago, are you? Are you considering it again?
I may, I mean, I'm, I'm enjoyingbeing out.
I'm, I'm in London and hanging out with you.
You know, there's a, this is a great town.
You know, I told my wife I may have one more election in me.
(38:14):
I don't know when that will be, but I'm enjoying kind of being
out. I'm, I'm coaching my son this
football team, American football, because.
People have been wondering if you'll go for governor as well,
haven't they? Yeah, you're thinking about.
That yeah, I'm thinking about it.
I'm thinking about it. Yeah, it's it's I, you know, I
spent 20 years in, I missed a lot of my kids stuff and now I'm
like coaching and really gettingtime with the family.
They're here with me in London and it's been a lot of fun.
(38:37):
So I got, you know, if I do jumpback in, that's like, you know,
I got to get a few votes in the House before I even make an
announcement. So we'll see how that goes.
Well, if you do stay in touch tomorrow.
Thank you very much indeed. Appreciate it.
And that's it for this episode of the Forecast.
Until next time, bye bye.
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