December 22, 2025 • 36 mins
What will 2026 look like around the globe? Will the second phase of the ceasefire in Gaza ever happen, will Ukraine and Russia agree to Donald Trump's peace deal, and what about the World Cup?
To explore what and who will shape the world in 2026, on this final Fourcast episode of 2025, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by two of Channel 4 News' most experienced international journalists who have seen quite a few power shifts and peace deals in their time: Lindsey Hilsum and Jonathan Rugman.
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Episode Transcript
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(00:00):
Is there such a thing as the worst anymore?
I'm not quite sure. 2026 is going to be a crunch year for
Europe. If the Americans pull all aid
and support to Ukraine, will Europe really step?
Up We spent probably more time in 2025 talking about the Middle
East and Gaza than any other topic.
(00:21):
How do the Israeli elections change the terms here?
Any significant breakthrough? Very, very unlikely to.
Happen as long as Netanyahu is in power?
What? Do you think will happen with
Taiwan this year? It is believed that the People's
Liberation Army would not be ready for any full scale
invasion of Taiwan until 2027. So relax, you've got another
year. Hello and welcome to the last
(00:45):
forecast of 2025, where we plan to take our name a bit more
literally than usual and have a think about the world over the
next year. Now, as we reach for the Brandy
and work out how big a measure to pour, it might be tempting to
be optimistic to say there's progress on Gaza, stage two of
the process to sort out a determination in Europe and
America to end the war in Ukraine, and a summer of
(01:06):
international sports diplomacy with the World Cup to look
forward to. But with all or most roads still
leading to Trump, there's the midterms, America, his demands
for regime change in Venezuela, the spread of the war in Sudan.
And that's before you've even thought about whether there's an
AI bubble about to burst, China planning the takeover of Taiwan
and the rising tide of populism in any number of countries
(01:28):
around the globe. Joining me, two of Channel 4's
most experienced international journalists who have seen many a
power shift, war and peace in their time, Lindsay Hilson and
Jonathan Rugman. Hello, everyone.
So, Lindsay, indulge me as we look ahead that, you know, is
there a scenario in which we think, well, 2025 felt very
(01:48):
chaotic, very unstable, Maybe things will calm down a little
bit over the next 12 months and it might be the era of peace and
harmony. Oh, Krishnan Cassandra was
right. You know, that's the problem.
And I might reach for the whiskey rather than the Brandy.
I am not pretty predicting joy, peace and harmony, I'm afraid.
(02:10):
In 2026, I find it very difficult to believe that the
war in Ukraine will come to an end.
I think that we're likely to seemore war.
And I think that if there is an enforced peace, it will not be
one that benefits the Ukrainian people.
I was at a briefing the other day with the head of MI 6.
(02:31):
She said that we in Europe are in a state which is somewhere
between war and peace. In other words, we are no longer
at peace, and that is because ofthe threat from Russia.
And then I haven't even started to talk about whether there's an
AI bubble. So we might see and a, a crash
in America might see a, a, a Wall Street crash.
(02:53):
And Sudan, you mentioned Sudan, a country that's very close to
my heart, where it's a terrible humanitarian crisis and there is
a great danger of it spreading to Ethiopia and also South
Sudan. Jonathan, I mean as as well as
the foreign beat, you've obviously been based in America,
you've done business. I mean, the, the midterms in
America, it might change the equation a little bit, mightn't
(03:16):
they? In terms of where Trump wants
his focus to be and how important the domestic economy
becomes to him and the need for things to be telling a a better
story up to a point, I think foreign.
Policy can carry on pretty much regardless.
Of the US domestic scene as longas it's.
Not costing the Americans lots of money.
(03:40):
You talked about the midterm. Elections.
That will very much depend. On the cost of living in the
United States and. The latest inflation.
Figures that have come out for America are 2.7%.
Which is lower than expected. So it is going in, Donald.
Trump's the right direction for Donald Trump.
(04:01):
His friendship with the. Crown Prince of Saudi.
Arabia means that he has considerable leverage when it.
Comes to. Persuading the Saudis to
increase the. Output of oil which helps.
Reduce the the price. So I think I I wouldn't take it
as a. Given that Donald Trump.
Is going to lose. The midterm elections.
(04:22):
Or that his party is. It won't actually, I think.
Depend on Donald Trump that all Americans now know, and they've
decided. What they think about him.
Whether they like. Him or they don't I.
Think it will depend on on the cost of living and.
It's been a surprise in 2025 that inflation.
And the stock market? Which has.
(04:45):
Been at a record high, you know have not been as.
Affected as they might have been.
By this global tariff war. Lindsay I mean, to, to what
extent do all roads lead to Trump?
I mean, it's very tempting sitting in Britain and looking
at British world coverage to think, well, he he determines
everything. Is that the way the world is at
the moment or, or are we seeing,you know, a greater, to a
(05:09):
greater degree, you know, the the zoning of the world spheres
of influence in which China, Russia, India take a much bigger
say in terms of the determination of how things go?
Well, the spheres of influence is because that is what Donald
Trump has decided. He has said that he wants to
(05:31):
control the Western Hemisphere and that means Latin America,
which is an area which is very rich in minerals, which of
course he's very interested in oil, lithium and so on.
And where he's very concerned that people should that leaders
should have the same right wing view of the world that he has.
And I was in Greenland at the beginning of this year,
(05:53):
somewhere else, as you may remember, he has his eye on in
the Western Hemisphere. And though he sort of backed off
on China in that, you know, there's that thing, Taco Trump
always chickens out when it cameto the tariffs.
He came right down from his 145%tariffs on Chinese goods because
the Chinese said, OK, no rare earths.
(06:13):
And he needs rare earths. He needs those critical minerals
for any kind of development of, of tech in America.
So he, you know, that that's sort of less of a sphere of
influence and more of some kind of arrangement between them.
And then that leaves the other sphere.
And that's Russia, and that's us, that's Europe.
And what we have seen play out through this year is how Donald
(06:37):
Trump favors Putin all the way through when it comes to war and
peace in Ukraine. And I think 2026 is going to be
a crunch year for Europe becauseif the Americans pull all aid
and support to Ukraine, which they have threatened to do,
which is perfectly possible, which includes intelligence,
will Europe really step up? What about the frozen Russian
(07:01):
assets? Will Europe really act on that
or not? And so I think what we are going
to see is Europe really being put to the test.
And that is entirely because of Trump's policies, because Trump
is very hostile to Europe and JDVance, his vice president, is
even more hostile. They think of, they talk about
(07:24):
civilizational erasure. What they mean by that, that is
that they don't like immigrationin Europe, they don't like
centre left, centre right, liberal politics.
They favour the far right and they don't like what they see in
our continent. It's quite difficult to know
though, isn't it Lindsay? You know, to what extent Europe
feels it really can step up and to what extent America wants to
(07:47):
control Europe, as you say. I mean the national security
strategy is now explicit in saying it wants to undermine the
social democracies of Europe andpromote nationalist parties and
populist parties to deliver a Europe in, in Trump's mould, if
you like. I mean, what I'm not really
clear about over the last year is, is while Europe has talked
(08:10):
about stepping up and determining its own future, it
feels like it's constantly checking whether what it's
saying and what it's doing is OKwith Washington because it feels
it's it's still needs Washingtonthere financially and
militarily. No, you're absolutely right.
Because I, I feel European leaders have grown up in an era
(08:32):
of dependence on the Americans as a security shield.
And as you know, what we call the West, is there such a thing
as the West anymore? I'm not quite sure.
And also inevitably different European leaders have a
different approach. And I think that we see
Chancellor Mertz in Germany being much clearer about the
(08:52):
need for to say, OK, the Americans aren't going to help
us. So then they haven't started
conscription in Germany, but they have started to say that
young men must sign up in case we have to do conscription.
And they are putting a lot more money into defence,
understanding that they are going to need an independent,
independent defence now. But then you look at the head of
(09:15):
NATO, Mark Rutte, who famously calls Donald Trump daddy.
He's obviously trying to keep itall together and he thinks that
that's his job. And then you've got Britain,
which is no longer in the EU, obviously, but still very
central in NATO, and Keir Starmer, who on the one hand is,
what shall we say, sucking up toDonald Trump?
(09:35):
I mean, remember one of those scenes in the air where he hands
over the letter from the king tosay, you, Donald Trump, you are
invited on a second state visit.You know, so all of that
massaging of the ego, but at thesame time, does that really help
is that, you know, Britain is tremendously invested in Ukraine
(09:57):
and British officials and military are increasingly
worried about this threat from Russia because what do we see?
We see Russian drones buzzing European airports.
We have Russian warships threatening our coast.
There is a lot of disinformation, misinformation.
There is sabotage on British andother European soil and there
(10:21):
are cyber attacks. So in the security and military
intelligence circles are very, very worried about Russia and
thinking that we may be on our own when it comes to resisting
that threat. I think.
Lindsay's been quite pessimisticthere.
I think we have to remember that.
You know, we've got three more years of Donald.
Trump. This isn't.
(10:41):
This isn't. Forever.
And yes, the US. Transatlantic Alliance.
Is is fraying and the. Europeans don't trust the
Americans and we've. Seen Emmanuel Macron, Keir
Starmer beat. Paths to the White House door
to. Try and keep the Americans.
On side. I think this is a.
(11:02):
Moment where Europe has to step up for its own security.
And indeed, it has started. To do that, and it probably
wouldn't have done that if Donald Trump hadn't told them.
To get on with it. So I think you know there.
Is there is a? Positive to all this in terms of
an increase in in defence spending.
And and and. Reducing the the over.
Reliance on the Americans, but Ithink the problem.
(11:22):
Is that if you talk to people atMI 6 they say look for every.
One or. Two bits of intelligence that we
give the Americans, they give usfour or five.
Back they have such an. Extraordinary intelligence
apparatus. And that I think is.
One of the crown jewels of the sort of special relationship.
That the the Brits in particular.
(11:43):
Don't want to lose. I think Ukraine is is at a.
Crucial point, I suspect. That Lindsay is right.
That there. Won't be an imminent outbreak of
peace because what's. On offer from the Russians.
Is Ukraine losing more territory?
Than it holds at the moment. So.
So there is almost nothing to begained apart from obviously
(12:04):
ending the slaughter. And the cost?
From suing for peace. Right now and the great.
Irony will be that as the. Americans step.
They also make money which Which?
Is Donald Trump's chief objective in the sense that.
NATO has set up this program where the Ukrainians use
European money to buy. American military hardware.
(12:26):
Yeah, I mean that that that doesseem to be one of the slightly
mad things that Europe has done in order to keep America on side
rather than think about its own domestic economies and what it
might benefit from a more military based that set of
investments over the coming years.
I mean, isn't the truth that thesort of the international
(12:47):
alliances that we're relying on,the EU and NATO, were built for
a different time when America's attitude towards the world was
to absolutely underpin Europe and when NATO was a genuine
alliance? I mean, they're, they're pulling
apart now, aren't they? Just as Europe needs to step
together. Look, that's absolutely true.
But then there's another issue and then I think that Jonathan
(13:08):
may be right here about my pessimism because there are two
things. There is Donald Trump and the
administration and then there are the institutions.
Now the institutions intelligence sharing was the one
that Jonathan mentioned. That sort of goes ahead.
Now I know that the State Department has been hollowed out
and yet you know that cooperation still goes on with
(13:29):
European countries, particularlyBritain and the State
Department, the FBI and the British police and so on.
All of that is continuing at a certain level.
We don't really know the extent to which the institutions will
endure and those institutional connections will endure.
I suspect that. They they will endure.
And I think we also have to remember that America was.
(13:50):
Turning its back on Europe anyway that it's been a fairly.
Consistent strain of American foreign policy that they were
more concerned about Pacific than they were about Europe.
And I suspect that when Trump talks about supporting parties
that are within his own. Tradition within Europe,
(14:13):
actually, he's probably not going to expend.
Much money or capital? Doing that, he's still going.
To be much more focused on Chinaand and on Taiwan.
If we can turn to talk about thethe cause of a lot of the
political instability and turbulence that we've seen
around the world, to what extentis all basically economic?
(14:35):
You know that we have a series of societies around the world
that are struggling to deliver improved living standards to
ordinary people, except perhaps in China and to some extent
India and the Far East and, and,and that is what's causing
(14:55):
political upheaval everywhere, isn't it?
Well, I think you've got a specific issue about Gen.
Z there, and this has been one of the fascinating things that
we've seen in 2025. We've had these Gen.
Z uprisings everywhere from Madagascar to Nepal to Kenya to
lots of different places. And we see that, you know, here
in the UK, which is, you know, this generation which can't
(15:16):
afford housing isn't going to bebetter off than his parents.
In fact, they're going to be much worse off than their
parents. So we see a lot of of
discontent, discontent there. And some of that, of course,
goes back to the 2008 financial crash.
And then, you know, nobody can ever predict when there is going
to be a financial crash. We don't know if there's going
(15:38):
to be 1 next year. But we do know that certainly
the tech companies, many analysts believe that they are
very overvalued. I'm reading that book by Andrew
Ross Sorkin 1929 at the moment. And it makes your hair stand on
end because you see how the crash comes and they try and
stop it and it goes down a little bit more and they try and
stop it and it goes down a little bit more.
(15:59):
But the momentum is relentless and of course then it spreads
into the wider economy and we have the the Great Depression in
the 30s. And then of course we know where
that ended in, in a World War. Now, history doesn't repeat
itself, but it does sometimes rhyme.
And I think that's why so many people are reading that book at
the moment. The other thing I would say
about Gen. Z, which I found very
(16:21):
interesting on a recent trip to China, is although China, yes,
they, they're still, they have growth rates not as high as they
were, you know, 10 years ago, but they're still pretty good.
But the Gen. Z there are very depressed.
They have this concept called Tang Ping, which means to lie
flat, in other words, to drop out.
They can't be bothered and that's because they have a huge
(16:45):
problem to graduate. Unemployment, 12 million
graduates a year in China. But you know, if you get a lunch
delivered by May Twang, which isthe equivalent of Deliveroo,
probably the person who comes onthe motorbike, the woman or man
will be a graduate because they can't find graduate level jobs.
And increasingly they are going in for automation.
(17:07):
Now that is will make their factories even more efficient.
I saw incredible factory which was making cars, which was just
all almost all automated, all robots.
But there again, that creates some more of an unemployment
problem. So I think that Gen.
Z is something to watch in Chinaas well as elsewhere in the
world. I, I think a lot of people will
(17:28):
be extraordinarily surprised and, and, and, and have a sort
of a, an almost pleasure in the idea that China also has a, a, a
problem with young people who can't be bothered because you
don't imagine that at all, do you?
I mean as as the parent of university age children tearing
my hair out most of the time, the idea that they are facing
(17:49):
the same issues as the developedW now is is quite a surprise.
But it's also, you know, it's sofascinating because of course,
these are the children of the one child policy.
They tend not to have any brothers and sisters.
Some people would say that they've been spoiled.
We used to have this phrase nearthe little emperors.
But it's also because you do have a totalitarian system.
(18:10):
And there's a sense, well, what can you do?
You can't resist. So if you look back to 1989, you
think, you know, young people tend to be rebellious, right?
So you look back at the 1989 generation, they stand, you
know, stood in front of the tanks.
Well, the current generation knows that that isn't going to
work. And they, you know, they do not
rebel. Anybody who rebels in China who
(18:32):
is against the system will certainly be penalised and
possibly end up in prison. So what form of resistance is
there? Well, Tang Ping lie flat.
Jonathan, I mean, whether or notthere's an AI bubble and some
people obviously think that it'sall going to go well.
And actually, you know, there might be a huge AI boost,
particularly in the American economy that might add to
(18:53):
American GDP next year. But either way, there seems to
be a decoupling of of growth with employment and ordinary
living standards in that you canhave growth and and people don't
feel it. Up to a point, Chris, yes, I
mean unemployment in America is 4.6%.
It's pretty high and if. The fears about AI are to be
(19:17):
believed. It's, you know.
It could go higher because. People are going to lose their
jobs through automation. And I I'm not sure.
That you know, that those fears that we had about the Internet
when that came along 34 to 40 years ago, and we were.
Saying the same thing I think. I think this is of a different
order of of magnitude potentially.
So yeah, there will there, therewill at some point I think be a
(19:40):
be a decoupling and people will begin to feel it.
One of the interesting. Things to look out.
For in 2026, is the competition between.
China and America over building massive artificial intelligence
companies the. Point at which they agree or
don't agree to reach. Some kind of?
(20:01):
Cooperation. Maybe that's too strong a word,
because we've got a state visit between America and China in
2020. 6 And we're going to have this interesting parallel of
sort. Of strategic competition America
supporting. Taiwan announcing a very large.
Military aid package for Taiwan.But also.
A certain amount of buddying up with with China in the way that.
(20:24):
Donald Trump likes to do. With despotic leaders who he
rather. Admires and respects.
Before we move on from China, Lindsay, what do you think will
happen with Taiwan this year? It is believed that the People's
Liberation Army would not be ready for any full scale
invasion of Taiwan until 2027. So relax, you've got another
(20:44):
year. Even so, I I find it hard to
believe that a full scale invasion would be the way that
China would take control of Taiwan.
If it were to do that, it would be much easier to do some kind
of blockade. And so I don't think it's going
to be exactly as we imagine it with the, you know, the choppers
overhead and the and the warships piloting in
(21:08):
immediately. I think that what is really more
significant, it goes back to what Jonathan was just saying,
which is this issue about AI anddata centers.
And this is where I see China having a real advantage over
America because China has far more green energy than any other
country. And we're talking about wind
(21:28):
farms, we're talking about solarpower and they are really
building on that because these new data centers which will be
needed for AI. And I think we're going to see a
lot of building of these data centers in the coming year.
They will all be powered by green energy.
And it's they have a seamless system in China, you know, from
(21:48):
the government through, you know, their policies and through
to private or semi private or state companies which do things.
They they make things happen in a way that, you know, America
and European countries and capitalist systems find much
harder. Now Donald Trump has issued all
green energy. He says, you know, the
(22:09):
environment, environmental concern, global warming, the
climate crisis. He says it's all a con and has
stopped putting money into that.So what that means is that the
the big day, the big tech companies are like, whoa, whoa,
whoa, where are we going to get all this energy from for these
new data centers? We're going to need massive
amounts of energy and the grid can't cope with it.
(22:31):
And yet they don't have a plan for dealing with that.
So I think that that will be an area where we may see China
streaking ahead of America, eventhough America is ahead
technologically on AI and also very much ahead on the the most
advanced kind of of semiconductors, silicon chips.
(22:52):
I think it's fair to say that wespent probably more time in 2025
talking about the Middle East and Gaza than any other topic.
And and, you know, it's just striking how it has dropped off
the agenda in the last month since the ceasefire.
But it's it's going to come back, isn't it?
Because first of all, the killing is still going on.
(23:14):
But they've got to get onto stage 2 of this whole process,
otherwise it will unravel. Jonathan, I guess that's.
True. I mean, I think.
Hamas has been massively. Weakened as Hezbollah has been
weakened in Lebanon as as. The Iranians have been weakened
by their war with Israel in 2025, but you're right that that
(23:36):
what we're witnessing is certainly not the outbreak of
peace. It's a sort of return.
To the relatively low level. Conflict where?
The Israelis continue to carry. Out operations against suspected
Hamas targets and it's all. A bit beneath the the.
Line of what? Makes the the Evening News, but
(23:56):
it isn't peace in our time and. I think there are several
conflicts around the world actually, that the Donald Trump.
Claims to have solved which aren't really solved.
He's just hoping, I guess, that they stay at a low.
Enough level so that when it comes to the time to choose the.
Winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace. Prize, it actually turns out.
(24:17):
To be him, but the situation is indeed unresolved.
Massive issues about who's goingto be in.
This multinational force. To keep the peace in.
Gaza. Are the Israelis going to
withdraw any? Further than they have?
Probably not. And who's?
Going to pay for the. Reconstruction because.
(24:38):
If you're a Gulf state with lotsof money, you're not going to
want to pay for the reconstruction.
Of the Gaza Strip. If you think that Israel.
Might attack at. At any given moment.
And so I think we won't really enter into a new phase of.
Understanding what's going to happen.
In the Middle East, until we discover whether Benjamin
Netanyahu remains the prime. Minister.
(24:59):
Israel's longest serving prime. Minister so far, but there are
elections. That are due to.
Come up and I. You know.
Whether it comes to a? So-called 2 state solution.
Any significant breakthrough Very, very unlikely to.
Happen as long as Netanyahu is in power.
And indeed, as long as. Abu Mazam, the leader of the
(25:19):
Palestinian Authority. In in.
The West Bank as long. As he is there too that you know
what role he takes. And what role the Palestinian
Authority takes in any of. This.
Well, if the Israelis have theirsay, it doesn't have any role at
all. And so I think that's something
that also. Needs, needs to be resolved.
Lindsay, How how do the Israeli elections change the terms here?
(25:40):
I mean, you know, Netanyahu's people are already making the
case that, look, he said he would bring the hostages home
and he has, you know, his policyof standing firm of aggressive,
you know, policy towards Hamas and Gaza is ultimately what has
worked. And they want to keep him in
power. I mean, might they pull it off?
(26:02):
Look, Netanyahu was massively unpopular after October the 7th
because he was seen as it was onhis watch.
You had this massive failure of intelligence and this appalling
massacre of of Jews and he was blamed for that.
But he has come back from that. And yeah, it is perfectly
(26:23):
possible that he will, that he will win again.
But even if he doesn't, the leftin Israeli politics has been
tremendously weakened by that. Where, you know, I've spent time
in Israel, you know, over the year and those left wing voices,
you know, who want a peace process, who want peace with the
(26:43):
Palestinians, they're very, veryfew and far between these days.
So any alternative to Netanyahu?I'm not sure how different they
would be. They might not be as effective
within the Israeli political system, but they're not going to
be far to the to the left. I think that, you know, it's,
it's quite likely that Gaza willstagnate.
(27:05):
It's now sort of in two zones. They have a sort of Hamas zone
in the middle bit and then a, a zone which is controlled by the
Israelis and with the different clan leaders and the Israeli
sponsored militia all around. I mean, it's a mess, frankly,
and people living in appalling conditions.
But where we may see the most movement is in the West Bank
(27:26):
because under Netanyahu the settlers have been enabled to go
in and take more land and push more Palestinians off their land
and so on, build more settlements.
This is all with the approval and sometimes encouragement of
the Israeli state. And frankly, they're on a roll.
And I find it hard to see that any incoming government, even if
(27:49):
it's not Netanyahu, will do anything to stop that.
Yes. And, and might the international
ramification of that over the next year also be more of what
we've just seen in Australia where we, we, we might now see
the growth of, of attacks, whether they are within a
(28:12):
network or whether they are lonewolves or, you know, lone, lone
actors in a, in a way that we have in the past.
And that that will be the thing that sort of keeps this on the
international agenda. We have just seen the most
horrendous example of it and andterrorism.
(28:33):
And for all that in the UK, the threat is seen as much more from
Russia now of state of, you know, a state threat.
Terrorism doesn't go away. Terrorism is is still there and
that is always a danger. Thompson, I think one of the.
(28:53):
Tragedies of this whole situation.
In the Middle East is. That.
Even if intelligence and security chiefs from the UK to
Australia say. Well, look, you know what's
happened in Gaza has been some kind of recruiting Sergeant for
acts of terrorism. Not that.
They could ever be excused is not fundamentally going to be
(29:15):
able to shift. The dial in terms of how we
handle Israel, for example, it. You know, we've seen in 2025
that all roads lead through Washington.
All roads lead through Donald. Trump there isn't a corner.
Of international diplomacy that that he isn't attempting to make
make his. Market so.
(29:36):
In in a way there's. Almost a sort of powerlessness
in terms of our foreign policy. Well, that's how it seems.
To me when when you know when you try and join the dots.
Between acts of terrorism and trying to calm the situation in
the Middle East, I'm just not sure we can.
Do very much about it, yeah, it doesn't seem to have any, any
impact at all. But I suppose I, I, I, I wonder
(29:58):
whether we're sort of a post Al Qaeda, post ISIS world now where
that frustration and fury felt by many people will come out in
the kinds of attacks that we've seen in Bondi.
So we're not in a post al Qaeda,post ISIS world.
You've talked about, you know, we've seen this horrendous
(30:18):
attack in Australia. Look at West Africa, what's
happening in the Sahel. You have Islamic State and Al
Qaeda linked groups which are increasingly powerful and taking
more and more territory in Mali,in Niger, in Burkina Faso.
And then we see coups. There was a coup attempt in, in
(30:41):
Benin just a couple of weeks agoin the middle of, of December.
We have the Russians in that area and we, we have, you know,
Islamic State and, and, and Al Qaeda taking more and more
territory. We're not even looking at it,
but it's happening. Yeah, and what's interesting to
watch is. If you're an intelligence.
Chief, you've got the old enemy,as it were.
(31:02):
In terms of al Qaeda and ISIS and.
The whole tilt to Islamist. Acts of terror that.
Began after. The September the 11th attacks
in 2001, so you've got that. Competing priority with what
the? Head of MI 6.
Was talking about which is whichis an even older enemy if you
like, which is which is the. Russians and.
(31:24):
Actually I. I was quite struck.
Listening to the speech by the new head.
Of MI 6 that. She wasn't actually saying
anything new. She would, she would.
She was basically making a plea for resources.
Which intelligence chiefs do they want to carry on being able
to fund their activities? Against the likes.
Of ISIS and al. Al Qaeda, but they also.
(31:45):
Need money increasingly because of the you.
Know the sort of. Sub just below the level of war
activity. As the head of our Mai 6 called
it by Moscow itself. Look, finally, I mean, we, we've
talked about a lot of the big themes that we're going to be
talking about over the next year.
What else do you think we shouldbe just keeping an eye on and
(32:05):
having a think about that may not be quite so obvious,
Lindsay. Oh, I'm such an obvious person,
Krishnan, because I'm thinking about, you know, the
humanitarian crisis in Sudan andI'm worrying about whether the
war in Sudan may spread because we see rumblings in Ethiopia and
we see rumblings in South Sudan.They have internal strife in
(32:27):
both of those countries, but they're on the borders and they
can all get get mixed up. So those are the kind of things
that I'm that I'm looking at. But I suppose, you know, events,
dear girl, events, we never knowwhat's going to happen.
We're always taken by surprise. We never predict the big things,
do we? Nobody started off saying, oh,
(32:48):
you know, the Berlin Wall might fall down this year or, you
know, I think that. So, you know, some people will
fly their planes into the Twin Towers.
We never know. Your prediction is a mug's game.
I'm, you know, whatever you may think, I'm not Mystic Meg.
Jonathan, I'm particularly interested in the.
Election in Bangladesh which is happening in.
February. It's the first election.
(33:09):
Since. Sheikh Hasina fled into exile in
India and it's an opportunity for the main Islamist party in
Bangladesh. To try and break the mould of
Bangladeshi politics. And insert itself between the.
Corrupt dynastic families. Which have from from.
The both the main party and the opposition.
(33:30):
Which have run Bangladesh. In the past, so I'm.
Interested in that. The other thing I'm interested
in is is the local elections in the UK in the.
Spring because I think. I think any election in the West
now in Europe is increasingly not just dependent on the
government's economic. Performance.
But it is about the issue of migration, it is about the issue
(33:53):
of the European. Court of Human Rights.
Whether the UK stays in it? And this whole trend which?
I think I could see. Spreading across Europe of
either right wing or or far right.
Or indeed far left parties campaigning on an anti
migration. Platform and I think.
That is the way the world is. Going as as.
(34:14):
Climate change continues to be. A massive.
Issue as more and more people want to leave where they are, as
more and more people use their phones to see what life looks.
Like on the other side in in richer Western countries, I
think that's a trend. Which is going to.
Carry on. And this hardening.
Towards immigration, which we'reseeing here in the UK, but I
(34:35):
think. That is going to become a major
issue across. Many European countries and and
finally, Lindsay, obviously the the big story, the big
international story of the year about which I'm sure we'll be
talking to you a great deal, is what's going to be the impact
and the winner of the World Cup.Oh yeah, That is my absolute
special subject. That's when some men kick a ball
(34:58):
around. Is that right?
Yeah. Although the bizarre thing about
the World Cup and FIFA now is that it, it, it, it has become
international, hasn't it? You know, Infantino is suddenly
an international figure in global diplomacy, it seems.
And peace prizes. Well, Peace Prize, He gave a
Peace Prize to Donald Trump. And then at one point during,
(35:19):
you know, one of the things on the Middle East, you had all of
these leaders coming up and suddenly he was there as well.
What on earth did he got to do with it?
He has positioned himself extremely cleverly with regards
to Donald Trump because for Donald Trump, everything is a
business deal. And I suspect that for Gianni
Infantini, everything is a business deal, too.
So, you know, this is a match made in heaven and I would say
(35:44):
they're both going to win. Well, there we are.
We began and ended with Trump, which was source of inevitable.
Thank you both very much indeed.And that's it for the forecast
for 2025. Have a great holiday season and
we'll see you again next year.
Is there such a thing as the worst anymore?
I'm not quite sure. 2026 is going to be a crunch year for
Europe. If the Americans pull all aid
and support to Ukraine, will Europe really step?
Up We spent probably more time in 2025 talking about the Middle
East and Gaza than any other topic.
(00:21):
How do the Israeli elections change the terms here?
Any significant breakthrough? Very, very unlikely to.
Happen as long as Netanyahu is in power?
What? Do you think will happen with
Taiwan this year? It is believed that the People's
Liberation Army would not be ready for any full scale
invasion of Taiwan until 2027. So relax, you've got another
year. Hello and welcome to the last
(00:45):
forecast of 2025, where we plan to take our name a bit more
literally than usual and have a think about the world over the
next year. Now, as we reach for the Brandy
and work out how big a measure to pour, it might be tempting to
be optimistic to say there's progress on Gaza, stage two of
the process to sort out a determination in Europe and
America to end the war in Ukraine, and a summer of
(01:06):
international sports diplomacy with the World Cup to look
forward to. But with all or most roads still
leading to Trump, there's the midterms, America, his demands
for regime change in Venezuela, the spread of the war in Sudan.
And that's before you've even thought about whether there's an
AI bubble about to burst, China planning the takeover of Taiwan
and the rising tide of populism in any number of countries
(01:28):
around the globe. Joining me, two of Channel 4's
most experienced international journalists who have seen many a
power shift, war and peace in their time, Lindsay Hilson and
Jonathan Rugman. Hello, everyone.
So, Lindsay, indulge me as we look ahead that, you know, is
there a scenario in which we think, well, 2025 felt very
(01:48):
chaotic, very unstable, Maybe things will calm down a little
bit over the next 12 months and it might be the era of peace and
harmony. Oh, Krishnan Cassandra was
right. You know, that's the problem.
And I might reach for the whiskey rather than the Brandy.
I am not pretty predicting joy, peace and harmony, I'm afraid.
(02:10):
In 2026, I find it very difficult to believe that the
war in Ukraine will come to an end.
I think that we're likely to seemore war.
And I think that if there is an enforced peace, it will not be
one that benefits the Ukrainian people.
I was at a briefing the other day with the head of MI 6.
(02:31):
She said that we in Europe are in a state which is somewhere
between war and peace. In other words, we are no longer
at peace, and that is because ofthe threat from Russia.
And then I haven't even started to talk about whether there's an
AI bubble. So we might see and a, a crash
in America might see a, a, a Wall Street crash.
(02:53):
And Sudan, you mentioned Sudan, a country that's very close to
my heart, where it's a terrible humanitarian crisis and there is
a great danger of it spreading to Ethiopia and also South
Sudan. Jonathan, I mean as as well as
the foreign beat, you've obviously been based in America,
you've done business. I mean, the, the midterms in
America, it might change the equation a little bit, mightn't
(03:16):
they? In terms of where Trump wants
his focus to be and how important the domestic economy
becomes to him and the need for things to be telling a a better
story up to a point, I think foreign.
Policy can carry on pretty much regardless.
Of the US domestic scene as longas it's.
Not costing the Americans lots of money.
(03:40):
You talked about the midterm. Elections.
That will very much depend. On the cost of living in the
United States and. The latest inflation.
Figures that have come out for America are 2.7%.
Which is lower than expected. So it is going in, Donald.
Trump's the right direction for Donald Trump.
(04:01):
His friendship with the. Crown Prince of Saudi.
Arabia means that he has considerable leverage when it.
Comes to. Persuading the Saudis to
increase the. Output of oil which helps.
Reduce the the price. So I think I I wouldn't take it
as a. Given that Donald Trump.
Is going to lose. The midterm elections.
(04:22):
Or that his party is. It won't actually, I think.
Depend on Donald Trump that all Americans now know, and they've
decided. What they think about him.
Whether they like. Him or they don't I.
Think it will depend on on the cost of living and.
It's been a surprise in 2025 that inflation.
And the stock market? Which has.
(04:45):
Been at a record high, you know have not been as.
Affected as they might have been.
By this global tariff war. Lindsay I mean, to, to what
extent do all roads lead to Trump?
I mean, it's very tempting sitting in Britain and looking
at British world coverage to think, well, he he determines
everything. Is that the way the world is at
the moment or, or are we seeing,you know, a greater, to a
(05:09):
greater degree, you know, the the zoning of the world spheres
of influence in which China, Russia, India take a much bigger
say in terms of the determination of how things go?
Well, the spheres of influence is because that is what Donald
Trump has decided. He has said that he wants to
(05:31):
control the Western Hemisphere and that means Latin America,
which is an area which is very rich in minerals, which of
course he's very interested in oil, lithium and so on.
And where he's very concerned that people should that leaders
should have the same right wing view of the world that he has.
And I was in Greenland at the beginning of this year,
(05:53):
somewhere else, as you may remember, he has his eye on in
the Western Hemisphere. And though he sort of backed off
on China in that, you know, there's that thing, Taco Trump
always chickens out when it cameto the tariffs.
He came right down from his 145%tariffs on Chinese goods because
the Chinese said, OK, no rare earths.
(06:13):
And he needs rare earths. He needs those critical minerals
for any kind of development of, of tech in America.
So he, you know, that that's sort of less of a sphere of
influence and more of some kind of arrangement between them.
And then that leaves the other sphere.
And that's Russia, and that's us, that's Europe.
And what we have seen play out through this year is how Donald
(06:37):
Trump favors Putin all the way through when it comes to war and
peace in Ukraine. And I think 2026 is going to be
a crunch year for Europe becauseif the Americans pull all aid
and support to Ukraine, which they have threatened to do,
which is perfectly possible, which includes intelligence,
will Europe really step up? What about the frozen Russian
(07:01):
assets? Will Europe really act on that
or not? And so I think what we are going
to see is Europe really being put to the test.
And that is entirely because of Trump's policies, because Trump
is very hostile to Europe and JDVance, his vice president, is
even more hostile. They think of, they talk about
(07:24):
civilizational erasure. What they mean by that, that is
that they don't like immigrationin Europe, they don't like
centre left, centre right, liberal politics.
They favour the far right and they don't like what they see in
our continent. It's quite difficult to know
though, isn't it Lindsay? You know, to what extent Europe
feels it really can step up and to what extent America wants to
(07:47):
control Europe, as you say. I mean the national security
strategy is now explicit in saying it wants to undermine the
social democracies of Europe andpromote nationalist parties and
populist parties to deliver a Europe in, in Trump's mould, if
you like. I mean, what I'm not really
clear about over the last year is, is while Europe has talked
(08:10):
about stepping up and determining its own future, it
feels like it's constantly checking whether what it's
saying and what it's doing is OKwith Washington because it feels
it's it's still needs Washingtonthere financially and
militarily. No, you're absolutely right.
Because I, I feel European leaders have grown up in an era
(08:32):
of dependence on the Americans as a security shield.
And as you know, what we call the West, is there such a thing
as the West anymore? I'm not quite sure.
And also inevitably different European leaders have a
different approach. And I think that we see
Chancellor Mertz in Germany being much clearer about the
(08:52):
need for to say, OK, the Americans aren't going to help
us. So then they haven't started
conscription in Germany, but they have started to say that
young men must sign up in case we have to do conscription.
And they are putting a lot more money into defence,
understanding that they are going to need an independent,
independent defence now. But then you look at the head of
(09:15):
NATO, Mark Rutte, who famously calls Donald Trump daddy.
He's obviously trying to keep itall together and he thinks that
that's his job. And then you've got Britain,
which is no longer in the EU, obviously, but still very
central in NATO, and Keir Starmer, who on the one hand is,
what shall we say, sucking up toDonald Trump?
(09:35):
I mean, remember one of those scenes in the air where he hands
over the letter from the king tosay, you, Donald Trump, you are
invited on a second state visit.You know, so all of that
massaging of the ego, but at thesame time, does that really help
is that, you know, Britain is tremendously invested in Ukraine
(09:57):
and British officials and military are increasingly
worried about this threat from Russia because what do we see?
We see Russian drones buzzing European airports.
We have Russian warships threatening our coast.
There is a lot of disinformation, misinformation.
There is sabotage on British andother European soil and there
(10:21):
are cyber attacks. So in the security and military
intelligence circles are very, very worried about Russia and
thinking that we may be on our own when it comes to resisting
that threat. I think.
Lindsay's been quite pessimisticthere.
I think we have to remember that.
You know, we've got three more years of Donald.
Trump. This isn't.
(10:41):
This isn't. Forever.
And yes, the US. Transatlantic Alliance.
Is is fraying and the. Europeans don't trust the
Americans and we've. Seen Emmanuel Macron, Keir
Starmer beat. Paths to the White House door
to. Try and keep the Americans.
On side. I think this is a.
(11:02):
Moment where Europe has to step up for its own security.
And indeed, it has started. To do that, and it probably
wouldn't have done that if Donald Trump hadn't told them.
To get on with it. So I think you know there.
Is there is a? Positive to all this in terms of
an increase in in defence spending.
And and and. Reducing the the over.
Reliance on the Americans, but Ithink the problem.
(11:22):
Is that if you talk to people atMI 6 they say look for every.
One or. Two bits of intelligence that we
give the Americans, they give usfour or five.
Back they have such an. Extraordinary intelligence
apparatus. And that I think is.
One of the crown jewels of the sort of special relationship.
That the the Brits in particular.
(11:43):
Don't want to lose. I think Ukraine is is at a.
Crucial point, I suspect. That Lindsay is right.
That there. Won't be an imminent outbreak of
peace because what's. On offer from the Russians.
Is Ukraine losing more territory?
Than it holds at the moment. So.
So there is almost nothing to begained apart from obviously
(12:04):
ending the slaughter. And the cost?
From suing for peace. Right now and the great.
Irony will be that as the. Americans step.
They also make money which Which?
Is Donald Trump's chief objective in the sense that.
NATO has set up this program where the Ukrainians use
European money to buy. American military hardware.
(12:26):
Yeah, I mean that that that doesseem to be one of the slightly
mad things that Europe has done in order to keep America on side
rather than think about its own domestic economies and what it
might benefit from a more military based that set of
investments over the coming years.
I mean, isn't the truth that thesort of the international
(12:47):
alliances that we're relying on,the EU and NATO, were built for
a different time when America's attitude towards the world was
to absolutely underpin Europe and when NATO was a genuine
alliance? I mean, they're, they're pulling
apart now, aren't they? Just as Europe needs to step
together. Look, that's absolutely true.
But then there's another issue and then I think that Jonathan
(13:08):
may be right here about my pessimism because there are two
things. There is Donald Trump and the
administration and then there are the institutions.
Now the institutions intelligence sharing was the one
that Jonathan mentioned. That sort of goes ahead.
Now I know that the State Department has been hollowed out
and yet you know that cooperation still goes on with
(13:29):
European countries, particularlyBritain and the State
Department, the FBI and the British police and so on.
All of that is continuing at a certain level.
We don't really know the extent to which the institutions will
endure and those institutional connections will endure.
I suspect that. They they will endure.
And I think we also have to remember that America was.
(13:50):
Turning its back on Europe anyway that it's been a fairly.
Consistent strain of American foreign policy that they were
more concerned about Pacific than they were about Europe.
And I suspect that when Trump talks about supporting parties
that are within his own. Tradition within Europe,
(14:13):
actually, he's probably not going to expend.
Much money or capital? Doing that, he's still going.
To be much more focused on Chinaand and on Taiwan.
If we can turn to talk about thethe cause of a lot of the
political instability and turbulence that we've seen
around the world, to what extentis all basically economic?
(14:35):
You know that we have a series of societies around the world
that are struggling to deliver improved living standards to
ordinary people, except perhaps in China and to some extent
India and the Far East and, and,and that is what's causing
(14:55):
political upheaval everywhere, isn't it?
Well, I think you've got a specific issue about Gen.
Z there, and this has been one of the fascinating things that
we've seen in 2025. We've had these Gen.
Z uprisings everywhere from Madagascar to Nepal to Kenya to
lots of different places. And we see that, you know, here
in the UK, which is, you know, this generation which can't
(15:16):
afford housing isn't going to bebetter off than his parents.
In fact, they're going to be much worse off than their
parents. So we see a lot of of
discontent, discontent there. And some of that, of course,
goes back to the 2008 financial crash.
And then, you know, nobody can ever predict when there is going
to be a financial crash. We don't know if there's going
(15:38):
to be 1 next year. But we do know that certainly
the tech companies, many analysts believe that they are
very overvalued. I'm reading that book by Andrew
Ross Sorkin 1929 at the moment. And it makes your hair stand on
end because you see how the crash comes and they try and
stop it and it goes down a little bit more and they try and
stop it and it goes down a little bit more.
(15:59):
But the momentum is relentless and of course then it spreads
into the wider economy and we have the the Great Depression in
the 30s. And then of course we know where
that ended in, in a World War. Now, history doesn't repeat
itself, but it does sometimes rhyme.
And I think that's why so many people are reading that book at
the moment. The other thing I would say
about Gen. Z, which I found very
(16:21):
interesting on a recent trip to China, is although China, yes,
they, they're still, they have growth rates not as high as they
were, you know, 10 years ago, but they're still pretty good.
But the Gen. Z there are very depressed.
They have this concept called Tang Ping, which means to lie
flat, in other words, to drop out.
They can't be bothered and that's because they have a huge
(16:45):
problem to graduate. Unemployment, 12 million
graduates a year in China. But you know, if you get a lunch
delivered by May Twang, which isthe equivalent of Deliveroo,
probably the person who comes onthe motorbike, the woman or man
will be a graduate because they can't find graduate level jobs.
And increasingly they are going in for automation.
(17:07):
Now that is will make their factories even more efficient.
I saw incredible factory which was making cars, which was just
all almost all automated, all robots.
But there again, that creates some more of an unemployment
problem. So I think that Gen.
Z is something to watch in Chinaas well as elsewhere in the
world. I, I think a lot of people will
(17:28):
be extraordinarily surprised and, and, and, and have a sort
of a, an almost pleasure in the idea that China also has a, a, a
problem with young people who can't be bothered because you
don't imagine that at all, do you?
I mean as as the parent of university age children tearing
my hair out most of the time, the idea that they are facing
(17:49):
the same issues as the developedW now is is quite a surprise.
But it's also, you know, it's sofascinating because of course,
these are the children of the one child policy.
They tend not to have any brothers and sisters.
Some people would say that they've been spoiled.
We used to have this phrase nearthe little emperors.
But it's also because you do have a totalitarian system.
(18:10):
And there's a sense, well, what can you do?
You can't resist. So if you look back to 1989, you
think, you know, young people tend to be rebellious, right?
So you look back at the 1989 generation, they stand, you
know, stood in front of the tanks.
Well, the current generation knows that that isn't going to
work. And they, you know, they do not
rebel. Anybody who rebels in China who
(18:32):
is against the system will certainly be penalised and
possibly end up in prison. So what form of resistance is
there? Well, Tang Ping lie flat.
Jonathan, I mean, whether or notthere's an AI bubble and some
people obviously think that it'sall going to go well.
And actually, you know, there might be a huge AI boost,
particularly in the American economy that might add to
(18:53):
American GDP next year. But either way, there seems to
be a decoupling of of growth with employment and ordinary
living standards in that you canhave growth and and people don't
feel it. Up to a point, Chris, yes, I
mean unemployment in America is 4.6%.
It's pretty high and if. The fears about AI are to be
(19:17):
believed. It's, you know.
It could go higher because. People are going to lose their
jobs through automation. And I I'm not sure.
That you know, that those fears that we had about the Internet
when that came along 34 to 40 years ago, and we were.
Saying the same thing I think. I think this is of a different
order of of magnitude potentially.
So yeah, there will there, therewill at some point I think be a
(19:40):
be a decoupling and people will begin to feel it.
One of the interesting. Things to look out.
For in 2026, is the competition between.
China and America over building massive artificial intelligence
companies the. Point at which they agree or
don't agree to reach. Some kind of?
(20:01):
Cooperation. Maybe that's too strong a word,
because we've got a state visit between America and China in
2020. 6 And we're going to have this interesting parallel of
sort. Of strategic competition America
supporting. Taiwan announcing a very large.
Military aid package for Taiwan.But also.
A certain amount of buddying up with with China in the way that.
(20:24):
Donald Trump likes to do. With despotic leaders who he
rather. Admires and respects.
Before we move on from China, Lindsay, what do you think will
happen with Taiwan this year? It is believed that the People's
Liberation Army would not be ready for any full scale
invasion of Taiwan until 2027. So relax, you've got another
(20:44):
year. Even so, I I find it hard to
believe that a full scale invasion would be the way that
China would take control of Taiwan.
If it were to do that, it would be much easier to do some kind
of blockade. And so I don't think it's going
to be exactly as we imagine it with the, you know, the choppers
overhead and the and the warships piloting in
(21:08):
immediately. I think that what is really more
significant, it goes back to what Jonathan was just saying,
which is this issue about AI anddata centers.
And this is where I see China having a real advantage over
America because China has far more green energy than any other
country. And we're talking about wind
(21:28):
farms, we're talking about solarpower and they are really
building on that because these new data centers which will be
needed for AI. And I think we're going to see a
lot of building of these data centers in the coming year.
They will all be powered by green energy.
And it's they have a seamless system in China, you know, from
(21:48):
the government through, you know, their policies and through
to private or semi private or state companies which do things.
They they make things happen in a way that, you know, America
and European countries and capitalist systems find much
harder. Now Donald Trump has issued all
green energy. He says, you know, the
(22:09):
environment, environmental concern, global warming, the
climate crisis. He says it's all a con and has
stopped putting money into that.So what that means is that the
the big day, the big tech companies are like, whoa, whoa,
whoa, where are we going to get all this energy from for these
new data centers? We're going to need massive
amounts of energy and the grid can't cope with it.
(22:31):
And yet they don't have a plan for dealing with that.
So I think that that will be an area where we may see China
streaking ahead of America, eventhough America is ahead
technologically on AI and also very much ahead on the the most
advanced kind of of semiconductors, silicon chips.
(22:52):
I think it's fair to say that wespent probably more time in 2025
talking about the Middle East and Gaza than any other topic.
And and, you know, it's just striking how it has dropped off
the agenda in the last month since the ceasefire.
But it's it's going to come back, isn't it?
Because first of all, the killing is still going on.
(23:14):
But they've got to get onto stage 2 of this whole process,
otherwise it will unravel. Jonathan, I guess that's.
True. I mean, I think.
Hamas has been massively. Weakened as Hezbollah has been
weakened in Lebanon as as. The Iranians have been weakened
by their war with Israel in 2025, but you're right that that
(23:36):
what we're witnessing is certainly not the outbreak of
peace. It's a sort of return.
To the relatively low level. Conflict where?
The Israelis continue to carry. Out operations against suspected
Hamas targets and it's all. A bit beneath the the.
Line of what? Makes the the Evening News, but
(23:56):
it isn't peace in our time and. I think there are several
conflicts around the world actually, that the Donald Trump.
Claims to have solved which aren't really solved.
He's just hoping, I guess, that they stay at a low.
Enough level so that when it comes to the time to choose the.
Winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace. Prize, it actually turns out.
(24:17):
To be him, but the situation is indeed unresolved.
Massive issues about who's goingto be in.
This multinational force. To keep the peace in.
Gaza. Are the Israelis going to
withdraw any? Further than they have?
Probably not. And who's?
Going to pay for the. Reconstruction because.
(24:38):
If you're a Gulf state with lotsof money, you're not going to
want to pay for the reconstruction.
Of the Gaza Strip. If you think that Israel.
Might attack at. At any given moment.
And so I think we won't really enter into a new phase of.
Understanding what's going to happen.
In the Middle East, until we discover whether Benjamin
Netanyahu remains the prime. Minister.
(24:59):
Israel's longest serving prime. Minister so far, but there are
elections. That are due to.
Come up and I. You know.
Whether it comes to a? So-called 2 state solution.
Any significant breakthrough Very, very unlikely to.
Happen as long as Netanyahu is in power.
And indeed, as long as. Abu Mazam, the leader of the
(25:19):
Palestinian Authority. In in.
The West Bank as long. As he is there too that you know
what role he takes. And what role the Palestinian
Authority takes in any of. This.
Well, if the Israelis have theirsay, it doesn't have any role at
all. And so I think that's something
that also. Needs, needs to be resolved.
Lindsay, How how do the Israeli elections change the terms here?
(25:40):
I mean, you know, Netanyahu's people are already making the
case that, look, he said he would bring the hostages home
and he has, you know, his policyof standing firm of aggressive,
you know, policy towards Hamas and Gaza is ultimately what has
worked. And they want to keep him in
power. I mean, might they pull it off?
(26:02):
Look, Netanyahu was massively unpopular after October the 7th
because he was seen as it was onhis watch.
You had this massive failure of intelligence and this appalling
massacre of of Jews and he was blamed for that.
But he has come back from that. And yeah, it is perfectly
(26:23):
possible that he will, that he will win again.
But even if he doesn't, the leftin Israeli politics has been
tremendously weakened by that. Where, you know, I've spent time
in Israel, you know, over the year and those left wing voices,
you know, who want a peace process, who want peace with the
(26:43):
Palestinians, they're very, veryfew and far between these days.
So any alternative to Netanyahu?I'm not sure how different they
would be. They might not be as effective
within the Israeli political system, but they're not going to
be far to the to the left. I think that, you know, it's,
it's quite likely that Gaza willstagnate.
(27:05):
It's now sort of in two zones. They have a sort of Hamas zone
in the middle bit and then a, a zone which is controlled by the
Israelis and with the different clan leaders and the Israeli
sponsored militia all around. I mean, it's a mess, frankly,
and people living in appalling conditions.
But where we may see the most movement is in the West Bank
(27:26):
because under Netanyahu the settlers have been enabled to go
in and take more land and push more Palestinians off their land
and so on, build more settlements.
This is all with the approval and sometimes encouragement of
the Israeli state. And frankly, they're on a roll.
And I find it hard to see that any incoming government, even if
(27:49):
it's not Netanyahu, will do anything to stop that.
Yes. And, and might the international
ramification of that over the next year also be more of what
we've just seen in Australia where we, we, we might now see
the growth of, of attacks, whether they are within a
(28:12):
network or whether they are lonewolves or, you know, lone, lone
actors in a, in a way that we have in the past.
And that that will be the thing that sort of keeps this on the
international agenda. We have just seen the most
horrendous example of it and andterrorism.
(28:33):
And for all that in the UK, the threat is seen as much more from
Russia now of state of, you know, a state threat.
Terrorism doesn't go away. Terrorism is is still there and
that is always a danger. Thompson, I think one of the.
(28:53):
Tragedies of this whole situation.
In the Middle East is. That.
Even if intelligence and security chiefs from the UK to
Australia say. Well, look, you know what's
happened in Gaza has been some kind of recruiting Sergeant for
acts of terrorism. Not that.
They could ever be excused is not fundamentally going to be
(29:15):
able to shift. The dial in terms of how we
handle Israel, for example, it. You know, we've seen in 2025
that all roads lead through Washington.
All roads lead through Donald. Trump there isn't a corner.
Of international diplomacy that that he isn't attempting to make
make his. Market so.
(29:36):
In in a way there's. Almost a sort of powerlessness
in terms of our foreign policy. Well, that's how it seems.
To me when when you know when you try and join the dots.
Between acts of terrorism and trying to calm the situation in
the Middle East, I'm just not sure we can.
Do very much about it, yeah, it doesn't seem to have any, any
impact at all. But I suppose I, I, I, I wonder
(29:58):
whether we're sort of a post Al Qaeda, post ISIS world now where
that frustration and fury felt by many people will come out in
the kinds of attacks that we've seen in Bondi.
So we're not in a post al Qaeda,post ISIS world.
You've talked about, you know, we've seen this horrendous
(30:18):
attack in Australia. Look at West Africa, what's
happening in the Sahel. You have Islamic State and Al
Qaeda linked groups which are increasingly powerful and taking
more and more territory in Mali,in Niger, in Burkina Faso.
And then we see coups. There was a coup attempt in, in
(30:41):
Benin just a couple of weeks agoin the middle of, of December.
We have the Russians in that area and we, we have, you know,
Islamic State and, and, and Al Qaeda taking more and more
territory. We're not even looking at it,
but it's happening. Yeah, and what's interesting to
watch is. If you're an intelligence.
Chief, you've got the old enemy,as it were.
(31:02):
In terms of al Qaeda and ISIS and.
The whole tilt to Islamist. Acts of terror that.
Began after. The September the 11th attacks
in 2001, so you've got that. Competing priority with what
the? Head of MI 6.
Was talking about which is whichis an even older enemy if you
like, which is which is the. Russians and.
(31:24):
Actually I. I was quite struck.
Listening to the speech by the new head.
Of MI 6 that. She wasn't actually saying
anything new. She would, she would.
She was basically making a plea for resources.
Which intelligence chiefs do they want to carry on being able
to fund their activities? Against the likes.
Of ISIS and al. Al Qaeda, but they also.
(31:45):
Need money increasingly because of the you.
Know the sort of. Sub just below the level of war
activity. As the head of our Mai 6 called
it by Moscow itself. Look, finally, I mean, we, we've
talked about a lot of the big themes that we're going to be
talking about over the next year.
What else do you think we shouldbe just keeping an eye on and
(32:05):
having a think about that may not be quite so obvious,
Lindsay. Oh, I'm such an obvious person,
Krishnan, because I'm thinking about, you know, the
humanitarian crisis in Sudan andI'm worrying about whether the
war in Sudan may spread because we see rumblings in Ethiopia and
we see rumblings in South Sudan.They have internal strife in
(32:27):
both of those countries, but they're on the borders and they
can all get get mixed up. So those are the kind of things
that I'm that I'm looking at. But I suppose, you know, events,
dear girl, events, we never knowwhat's going to happen.
We're always taken by surprise. We never predict the big things,
do we? Nobody started off saying, oh,
(32:48):
you know, the Berlin Wall might fall down this year or, you
know, I think that. So, you know, some people will
fly their planes into the Twin Towers.
We never know. Your prediction is a mug's game.
I'm, you know, whatever you may think, I'm not Mystic Meg.
Jonathan, I'm particularly interested in the.
Election in Bangladesh which is happening in.
February. It's the first election.
(33:09):
Since. Sheikh Hasina fled into exile in
India and it's an opportunity for the main Islamist party in
Bangladesh. To try and break the mould of
Bangladeshi politics. And insert itself between the.
Corrupt dynastic families. Which have from from.
The both the main party and the opposition.
(33:30):
Which have run Bangladesh. In the past, so I'm.
Interested in that. The other thing I'm interested
in is is the local elections in the UK in the.
Spring because I think. I think any election in the West
now in Europe is increasingly not just dependent on the
government's economic. Performance.
But it is about the issue of migration, it is about the issue
(33:53):
of the European. Court of Human Rights.
Whether the UK stays in it? And this whole trend which?
I think I could see. Spreading across Europe of
either right wing or or far right.
Or indeed far left parties campaigning on an anti
migration. Platform and I think.
That is the way the world is. Going as as.
(34:14):
Climate change continues to be. A massive.
Issue as more and more people want to leave where they are, as
more and more people use their phones to see what life looks.
Like on the other side in in richer Western countries, I
think that's a trend. Which is going to.
Carry on. And this hardening.
Towards immigration, which we'reseeing here in the UK, but I
(34:35):
think. That is going to become a major
issue across. Many European countries and and
finally, Lindsay, obviously the the big story, the big
international story of the year about which I'm sure we'll be
talking to you a great deal, is what's going to be the impact
and the winner of the World Cup.Oh yeah, That is my absolute
special subject. That's when some men kick a ball
(34:58):
around. Is that right?
Yeah. Although the bizarre thing about
the World Cup and FIFA now is that it, it, it, it has become
international, hasn't it? You know, Infantino is suddenly
an international figure in global diplomacy, it seems.
And peace prizes. Well, Peace Prize, He gave a
Peace Prize to Donald Trump. And then at one point during,
(35:19):
you know, one of the things on the Middle East, you had all of
these leaders coming up and suddenly he was there as well.
What on earth did he got to do with it?
He has positioned himself extremely cleverly with regards
to Donald Trump because for Donald Trump, everything is a
business deal. And I suspect that for Gianni
Infantini, everything is a business deal, too.
So, you know, this is a match made in heaven and I would say
(35:44):
they're both going to win. Well, there we are.
We began and ended with Trump, which was source of inevitable.
Thank you both very much indeed.And that's it for the forecast
for 2025. Have a great holiday season and
we'll see you again next year.
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