Andrei Sannikov on Lukashenko’s latest gambit — and why the West keeps taking the bait

Belarusian pro-democracy activist Andrei Sannikov recently joined Beet editor Eilish Hart for a conversation recorded on the sidelines of the Halifax International Security Forum. The interview focused on the Trump administration’s growing engagement with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, including efforts to secure the release of more than a thousand political prisoners. In these negotiations, Lukashenko has leveraged a tactic honed by his regime over decades of authoritarian rule.

Sannikov knows the consequences of that system firsthand. He ran against Lukashenko in the 2010 presidential election, was badly beaten by riot police, and served time in prison after protests erupted over the rigged vote. From exile, he has watched Minsk turn prisoner releases into bargaining chips, trading a few high-profile dissidents for sanctions relief and then refilling the prisons with new detainees.

Against the backdrop of Trump’s second term and renewed U.S.–Belarus engagement, Sannikov warned that Washington risks falling into a familiar trap. While the White House celebrates diplomatic “breakthroughs,” Lukashenko continues to imprison more Belarusians than he frees, raising the unsettling question of whether outreach to Minsk delivers any real progress or merely legitimizes repression.

Timestamps for this episode:

• (3:06) Trump’s second term and Belarus relations
• (9:48) Lukashenko’s role in the Ukraine war
• (11:17) The geopolitical impact of Belarus breaking isolation
• (15:13) The future of Belarus: Neutrality vs. alliances
• (21:52) The importance of political prisoners and democratic resistance

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