This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

Exploring threats to global stability from Ukraine to China to the Middle East with host Gavin Esler – former BBC News presenter, Washington correspondent and host of Newsnight – plus Ukraine-based war reporter Oz Katerji and independent conflict analyst Emma Beals. This Is Not A Drill dives deep into the dangers, corruption, conflicts, disinformation, rivalries and ruthless realpolitik that are making our world ever more dangerous. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon from just £3 per month to get each episode early plus bonus material and exclusive merchandise. From Podmasters, the team behind Oh God, What Now?, Paper Cuts and The Bunker.

Episodes

Inside the battle for truth – with Bellingcat’s Eliot Higgins

July 3, 2025 • 50 mins
From ‘alternative facts’ to political lies to the disinformation that courses through social media, the ‘post-truth’ phenomenon threatens the foundations of democracy.  Politicians and ideologues are ramping up mistrust in our institutions using unchecked digital media. How can we hold onto democratic guardrails in a world shaped by politically-driven deceit and manipulation? Eliot Higgins is the founder of Bellingcat, the invest...
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Iran-Israel ceasefire – Will Trump's truce hold?

June 25, 2025 • 32 mins
Out early due to the fast moving situation...  The ceasefire announced by Donald Trump has seemingly brought an end to the conflict between Israel and Iran.  Yet with the ceasefire almost immediately broken by both sides according to the latest reports, will the truce last? And what can America and allies do to hold peace in a fragile Middle East? Gavin Esler is joined by Dr Julie Norman, professor in politics and internationa...
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Israel-Iran — Will Trump drag America into the conflict?

June 19, 2025 • 31 mins
As Israel and Iran continue to trade attacks, what role will the US play in attempting to bring the crisis to an end - and might it be dragged into the conflict? As Donald Trump weighs up his options – either to force Iran into committing to giving up its nuclear programme, or potentially deploy US bombers and bunker busting bombs to hit Iran’s underground nuclear facilities – the prospect of American forces joining directly in ...
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‘Rising Lion’ – What Israel’s onslaught on Iran means

June 13, 2025 • 31 mins
Israel’s unprecedented attack on over 100 targets in Iran – including nuclear facilities, missile sites, and military leadership – has stunned the region. But what does it mean? As Iranian state TV reports the deaths of key regime figures, and nuclear scientists, supreme leader Ali Khamenei promises heavy retaliation for “Operation Rising Lion”. Trump meanwhile warns “it will only get worse” for Iran unless they sign a deal over it...
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Shadow war – Can Britain face down the Russian threat?

June 11, 2025 • 29 mins
Launching the UK’s latest strategic defence review, Keir Starmer pledged renewed spending on defence and vowed “everything we do will add to the strength of NATO”. Yet as NATO secretary general Mark Rutte calls for members to increase spending further to five percent of GDP on security, are Britain and its allies doing enough to secure the alliance’s future and deter the threat of an expansionist Russia? In the latest episode...
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Aerial assault – How drones changed warfare forever

June 9, 2025 • 41 mins
More than three years since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, warfare has been transformed by drones.  Reports have stated that 70 percent of combat casualties in the war in Ukraine are now caused by drones, while the British security think tank RUSI calculates drones account for 60 to 70 percent of damaged and destroyed Russian systems. Ukraine, forced to innovate to hold off Russian forces, claims to be capable of...
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Operation Spiderweb – How Ukraine stunned Russia and changed the war

June 5, 2025 • 32 mins
Ukraine’s daring drone attack Operation Spiderweb has stunned Russia with its stealth, precision planning and the damage it unleashed on warplanes based deep within Russian territory.  Gavin Esler is joined from Kyiv by This Is Not A Drill co-host Oz Katerji, to discuss the impact of an operation planned meticulously over the past 18 months – and what it means both for the war and the nature of asymmetric conflict. • This episode...
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Israel-Gaza – Will anybody stop Netanyahu?

May 29, 2025 • 35 mins
The continued assault of the Israeli armed forces amid a growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza has drawn global criticism. Yet the question remains – who will intervene to end the conflict and restrain Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu? Donald Trump’s recent trip to the Middle East saw the US President looking to broker deals in the region - including the potential for a new deal with Israel's rivals Iran. But is Trump a...
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Eastern flank – Why Poland is crucial to Europe's defence push

May 22, 2025 • 29 mins
With questions raised over Europe’s defence capabilities, Poland is one of the key nations insisting the continent needs to bolster its security.  This March the European Commission announced an €800bn plan to boost continental defence. But is Europe doing enough? Gavin Esler discusses the view from Poland with Professor Agnieszka Bieńczyk-Missala from the Faculty of Political Science and International Studies at Warsaw Universi...
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Trump's Syria shift – A pivotal moment for Damascus and the Middle East?

May 15, 2025 • 48 mins
Trump’s shock announcement that he would be lifting economic sanctions on Syria has sparked celebrations in the streets of Damascus.  What are the consequences for the recovery of a nation rebuilding its state and infrastructure after more than a decade of civil war? And following the announcement in Riyadh after a meeting between Trump and Syria’s new President Ahmed al-Sharaa, what does it mean for Syria’s rebalancing of relat...
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Kashmir crisis – Can India and Pakistan come back from the brink?

May 8, 2025 • 32 mins
As the crisis across the India-Pakistan border escalates, can the conflict be brought back from the brink? To discuss the latest from the region and the wider context of a deep-rooted interstate rivalry, Gavin Esler talks to Christopher Clary, associate professor at University at Albany, State University of New York, non-resident fellow at the Stimson Center and author of The Difficult Politics of Peace: Rivalry in Modern South As...
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Ukraine mineral deal – What it means for Kyiv's fightback

May 5, 2025 • 35 mins
Ukraine and the US have reached a long-awaited agreement on a deal over American access to Ukrainian mineral resources. What does this mean for Ukrainian resilience in the fight against Russian invasion – and for a US-Ukraine relationship strained by the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House? Oz Katerji discusses the mineral deal and the economics of the war with Tymofiy Mylovanov, President of the Kyiv School of Economics an...
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A taster of CRIME SCENE, our new podcast – Episode 1: Guns of London

May 1, 2025 • 12 mins
As a follower of This Is Not A Drill, we thought you might like to try our brand new, not-entirely-dissimilar podcast CRIME SCENE. Every week ex-Met Police Commissioner Bernard Hogan-Howe and former Mirror editor Alison Phillips lift the lid on how criminal investigations really work. In our debut episode: The horrific shooting of an innocent nine-year-old girl in Dalston in 2024 laid bare bitter rivalries between London’s armed ...
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Trump vs. the global order – How can the world rebuild without America?

May 1, 2025 • 34 mins
The first 100 days of Trump’s second term have left the rest of the world facing the challenge of maintaining a global order without American leadership at its core.  What comes next is the subject of ‘Order Without America, How the International System can Survive a Hostile Washington’ – a recent Foreign Affairs article by the founding Dean of the Blavatnik School of Government and Professor of Global Economic Governance at Oxfor...
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Ukraine peace talks – What happens if Trump walks away? – with Luke Harding

April 24, 2025 • 32 mins
Donald Trump famously said he could end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. But now, he’s suggested the US might “pass” on peace negotiations – unless rapid progress is made. So, what does that mean for Ukraine, three years into Russia’s full-scale invasion? After a week of statement and counter-statement in which Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported continued Russian attacks on Ukraine despite Vladimir Putin’s unilateral declaration of...
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Bottom dollar – How Trump gave up America's grip on the global economy

April 17, 2025 • 34 mins
Amid the shocks created by Trump’s tariff policies, are we also seeing a kind of American economic self-harm – which threatens the long-standing dominance of the US dollar? Gavin Esler talks to Harvard Professor of Economics and former International Monetary Fund chief economist Kenneth Rogoff, whose new book Our Dollar, Your Problem looks at the rise of the US currency and shows why its future is far from assured. • This episode...
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Trump and Five Eyes – Will he break global intelligence?

April 9, 2025 • 33 mins
Donald Trump’s volatile behaviour raises questions for intelligence sharing across the globe – so how unsafe could he make our world? Is the Five Eyes alliance between Britain, the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand Trump-proof? And how might his actions impact it? Professor Ciaran Martin of the University of Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government, and former chief executive of the National Cyber Security Centre, tells Gavin Es...
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Cruel World – What happens when the West walks away?

April 3, 2025 • 44 mins
Trump is dismantling USAID, pulling the rug on vital humanitarian aid and development funding, and countries across the West have followed suit in slashing foreign aid budgets.  To discuss the grim ramifications of Western governments turning their back on overseas aid, and what the world can do in response, Emma Beals talks to President of Refugees International Jeremy Konyndyk, and Sara Pantuliano, Chief Executive at ODI Global....
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Germany rearms - Can Europe go it alone?

March 27, 2025 • 38 mins
Could the German government’s historic vote to back a major rearmament plan prove a turning point for the whole of Europe? To discuss the German response to European security concerns, the threat of Russian aggression and an increasingly unreliable relationship with the United States, Gavin Esler is joined by Dr Nicolai von Ondarza from the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik in Berlin. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is suppo...
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Peace talks deadlock – Can Putin stare Trump down?

March 20, 2025 • 39 mins
Despite a supposed “pause” in attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, Russian airstrikes against Ukraine continue. Meanwhile Trump’s much-touted call with Putin showed no evidence of moving negotiations forward. Is a genuine ceasefire possible or is Putin displaying his ability to manipulate events yet again? Sam Greene, professor of Russian politics at King’s College London and director of democratic resilience at the Centre f...
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