This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

Exploring threats to global stability from Ukraine to China to the Middle East with host Gavin Esler – former BBC News presenter, Washington correspondent and host of Newsnight – plus Ukraine-based war reporter Oz Katerji and independent conflict analyst Emma Beals. This Is Not A Drill dives deep into the dangers, corruption, conflicts, disinformation, rivalries and ruthless realpolitik that are making our world ever more dangerous. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon from just £3 per month to get each episode early plus bonus material and exclusive merchandise. From Podmasters, the team behind Oh God, What Now?, Paper Cuts and The Bunker.

Episodes

September 25, 2025 34 mins
In a dramatic shift over the war in Ukraine, Trump took to Truth Social this week to declare his belief that Ukraine can win back its territories.  Will Trump’s change in stance last, and will the shift in rhetoric lead to a change in policy from the White House? To discuss a dramatic week at the UN General Assembly meeting and the latest from the front lines in Eastern Ukraine, Oz Katerji is joined in Kyiv by security analyst...
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Trump’s economic policies have caused chaos globally and he’s made it clear he’s happy to use America’s financial might against his enemies – or help his friends. But, when it comes to security, who is this actually helping?  In the latest episode of This Is Not A Drill – we ask,how do tariffs and inflation in the US impact global security? Emma Beals is joined by Adam Posen, the president of the Peterson Institute for Internati...
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How did Nepal’s ‘Discord revolution’ spark so quickly and bring in a new national leader chosen by online poll? On the 8th of September, a group of young Nepali gathered in Kathmandu to protest a social media ban they saw as a heavy-handed crackdown against an anti-corruption movement. A week later, the government has fallen, more than 70 people lie dead after protests were infiltrated by violent groups and the government respon...
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Israel’s targeting of Hamas in Qatar has further escalated the crisis in the Middle East, and follows Benjamin Netanyahu’s evacuation order for Gaza City as Israeli forces prepare to send in occupying forces. Joining Gavin Esler to discuss the latest from the Middle East. and whether the Arab states in the region may play a part in defusing this endless conflict, is Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Middle East Security at the In...
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NATO jets have scrambled to shoot down Russian drones after what Polish military command has called an ‘unprecedented violation’ of its airspace.  As Europe reacts to Russian aggression crossing into NATO airspace and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk invokes Article 4 of the NATO treaty, Gavin Esler is joined for the latest from Warsaw by Ian Garner, assistant professor at the Center for Totalitarian Studies at the Pilecki Instit...
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As conflicts and tariff-led trade wars fracture an international order forged at the end of the Second World War, have we entered an era of great power competition?  Joining Oz Katerji today to discuss whether the rise to prominence of autocratic ‘strongman’ leaders marks a new landscape of great power contest is Stacie Goddard, Professor of Political Science at Wellesley College.  • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is support...
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China is upping its pace in a race to dominate the world of technology. What will Beijing’s quest mean for its rivalry with the US and how will it shape the future? Gavin Esler is joined by Dan Wang, author of Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future, to discuss China’s ambitions.   Buy Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future through our affiliate bookshop and you’ll help fund This is Not a Drill by earning us a s...
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As details, claims and counter claims emerge after Trump’s long-promised peace talks, Ukraine’s future remains in the balance. In this special 100th of edition of This Is Not A Drill, Oz Katerji discusses a week of crucial diplomacy with Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s minister for foreign affairs from 2020 to 2024. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, prote...
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After a frantic week of international diplomacy, where has the Trump-Putin summit left the prospect of an end to Russia’s war on Ukraine? Following Trump’s red carpet welcome for Putin in Alaska, European leaders scrambled to join Volodymyr Zelenskyy for further talks in Washington. With details still unclear on a host of negotiations, from land swaps to security guarantees, sanctions and even a potential meeting between Putin and...
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August 13, 2025 42 mins
The highly potent opioid fentanyl is a major cause of death in the US – and the global trade of the drug is also a cause of growing geopolitical division.  Trump has claimed tariffs on Mexico and Canada are targeting the supply of the drug; his China tariffs have complicated efforts to stem exports of the ingredients needed for its production, and fractures among cartels pushing fentanyl could well reshape underworld activity worl...
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After the 12 day war, which saw Israel and the US bomb Iran and its nuclear facilities, where next for the Iranian regime?  Questions remain over the Tehran regime’s ability to stay in power after decades of tensions in the region exploded on Iranian soil in June, its strategy of ‘forward defence’ left in ruins following Israel’s attacks on Iranian-aligned militia groups. Will Iran now continue to pursue what’s left of the nucle...
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July 31, 2025 31 mins
Why is it so difficult to end wars and what makes peace settlements so likely to be rejected? These questions echo across the globe in an era of conflict and political division, with attempts to broker peace settlements in Gaza and Ukraine dominating headlines but so far remaining out of reach.  Historian Margaret MacMillan is Professor at the University of Oxford and the author of numerous books on war and peace, including Pea...
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July 24, 2025 31 mins
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a generation of young Russians hoped for a better future of economic prosperity and personal freedom. Yet three decades later Russia has invaded Ukraine and is isolated from the Western world. What happened to the dreams of the perestroika generation, and what does Russian society think about Putin’s war and his grip on power? In the latest episode of This Is Not a Drill, Gavin Esler...
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Trump’s position on the war in Ukraine looks to be changing, with his decision to send new weapons to Ukraine and a 50-day ultimatum for Vladimir Putin to halt Russian attacks. But will Trump’s threat of ‘severe’ sanctions decisively impact Russian’s war economy and force Putin to a lasting ceasefire?   Gavin Esler assesses Trump’s ‘major statement’ on Russia with Mark Galeotti, historian, writer and leading expert on Russian...
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Trump has opened the doors to kleptocrats the world over as he launches a new era of corruption the likes of which we’ve never seen. Oliver Bullough, writer of the Coda Story newsletter as well as the author of Butler to the World: How Britain Became the Servant of Tycoons, Tax Dodgers, Kleptocrats and Criminals, and Moneyland, has long been following the corrupt ways money moves around the globe. He joins Gavin Esler to discuss ho...
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From ‘alternative facts’ to political lies to the disinformation that courses through social media, the ‘post-truth’ phenomenon threatens the foundations of democracy.  Politicians and ideologues are ramping up mistrust in our institutions using unchecked digital media. How can we hold onto democratic guardrails in a world shaped by politically-driven deceit and manipulation? Eliot Higgins is the founder of Bellingcat, the invest...
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Out early due to the fast moving situation...  The ceasefire announced by Donald Trump has seemingly brought an end to the conflict between Israel and Iran.  Yet with the ceasefire almost immediately broken by both sides according to the latest reports, will the truce last? And what can America and allies do to hold peace in a fragile Middle East? Gavin Esler is joined by Dr Julie Norman, professor in politics and internationa...
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As Israel and Iran continue to trade attacks, what role will the US play in attempting to bring the crisis to an end - and might it be dragged into the conflict? As Donald Trump weighs up his options – either to force Iran into committing to giving up its nuclear programme, or potentially deploy US bombers and bunker busting bombs to hit Iran’s underground nuclear facilities – the prospect of American forces joining directly in ...
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Israel’s unprecedented attack on over 100 targets in Iran – including nuclear facilities, missile sites, and military leadership – has stunned the region. But what does it mean? As Iranian state TV reports the deaths of key regime figures, and nuclear scientists, supreme leader Ali Khamenei promises heavy retaliation for “Operation Rising Lion”. Trump meanwhile warns “it will only get worse” for Iran unless they sign a deal over it...
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Launching the UK’s latest strategic defence review, Keir Starmer pledged renewed spending on defence and vowed “everything we do will add to the strength of NATO”. Yet as NATO secretary general Mark Rutte calls for members to increase spending further to five percent of GDP on security, are Britain and its allies doing enough to secure the alliance’s future and deter the threat of an expansionist Russia? In the latest episode...
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