July 3, 2024 • 18 mins
HAND RECAP (5 handed, final table, 100K/200K blinds - 200K BB ante)
Viktor “Isildur1” Blom (14M chips) raises to 700K from the Small Blind with K♦ 4♠. Jesse Lonis (9.5M chips) calls from the Big Blind with A♠ 3♠.
(Stack size notes: Blom and Lonis are in 2nd and 3rd chip position. The chip leader has 20M. There are two relatively short stacks.)
The flop is 4♣ 4♥ 3♣. Blom bets 400K. Lonis calls.
Turn 6♠. Blom bets 1.45M. Lonis calls.
River Q♠. Blom bets 3.25M. Lonis folds.
Get 33% off Aaron Barone's exclusive training content in the Upswing Lab during the WSOP Winners Sale* at https://upswingpoker.com/the-poker-lab-coaching
*Expires when the 2024 WSOP Main Event ends!
Watch the full final table at https://www.pokergo.com/
Written Version of This Episode
00:00 Introduction and Overview
01:29 Viktor Blom’s Strategy from the Small Blind
03:21 Jesse Lonis’s Big Blind Defense with Ace-Three
04:13 Flop Analysis: Viktor’s Trips vs. Jesse’s Pair
05:39 Turn Play: Analyzing the Six of Spades
07:09 River Decision: Queen of Spades and Viktor’s Bet
11:03 Jesse’s Tough River Call or Fold
14:30 Final Thoughts and Tournament Updates
15:31 Upswing Lab Promo and Conclusion
In this episode of our poker strategy podcast, host Mike Brady is joined by tournament pro Aaron Barone to analyze a thrilling hand from the $50,000 buy-in tournament at the World Series of Poker (WSOP). With $2 million on the line for the winner, the stakes are incredibly high, and the episode offers listeners a front-row seat to a deep dive into the key decisions and strategies at play during this final table showdown.
The discussion begins with the setup of the hand featuring Viktor Blom, known as "Isildur1," facing off against Jesse Lonis. With only five players left, each player has secured nearly $500,000, but all eyes are on the top prize. Viktor Blom, holding King-four offsuit, decides to apply pressure on Jesse Lonis, who holds Ace-three of spades in the big blind. The hosts explore the dynamics of this decision, emphasizing how Blom leverages his big stack to exploit the smaller stacks at the table.
As the hand progresses, listeners are walked through the action from the flop to the river, where Blom's aggressive playstyle and calculated bets put Lonis in a challenging spot. The podcast highlights the complexities of tournament play, p
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Mike (00:00):
Over $2 million is going to the winner in this $50,000 buy-in tournament
at the World Series of Poker.
Let's take a look at a key handfeaturing an absolute legend of the game.
Viktor Blom, AKA Isildur1.
I'll quickly set up the situationbefore we get into the hand.
There are five players left and there's$2 million going to the winner like I
(00:21):
said,
each player has locked up littleunder $500,000 and the stack
set up are as follows.
Adrian Mateos is the shortstack with about 20 big blinds.
Chance Kornuth is covering him by alittle bit. He's got about 30 big blinds.
Jesse Lonis, who is one ofthe players in this hand,
goes into this hand with 47 big blinds.
So he's pulled away quite a bit fromthe fourth and fifth place spots.
(00:45):
And Adrian Mateos is really the one who'salmost on the ropes with only 20 big
blinds. And then there's two biggerstacks. Viktor Blom, AKA Isildur1,
he's got 14 million,which is 70 big blinds.
And Sergio Aido is the runaway chip leaderat this point with 20 million that's
over a hundred big blinds.
In this hand the action folds to ViktorBlom in the small blind. Once again,
(01:05):
it's Jesse Lonis in the Big Blind.
So Viktor Blom is the covering stackwith 14 million to Jesse Lonis's,
9.4 million.
Viktor Blom picks up King fouroffsuit in the small blind.
Today I'm joined by Tournament ProAaron Barone here to provide some expert
analysis as we gothrough this hand. Aaron,
how are you playing this spot as ViktorBlom when it folds to you as the bigger
(01:28):
stack?
Aaron (01:29):
So we saw Blom looked down at his cards,
but I'm pretty sure before he even looked,he thought to himself, I'm raising,
it's such a great spot to apply pressureto a middle stack of Jesse Lonis
because the other stacks are soshort or a lot shorter. Lonis is not
incentivized to play handshere. He makes money,
he makes equity by folding and so he'sgoing to be folding a lot of hands.
(01:50):
And so the fact that Blomhas King Four is pretty good.
It's great he's blocking some of thehands that Lonis would continue with.
But again, if you look deep in his soul,
I'm pretty sure that Blom was going toraise pre regardless of his holdings.
And sometimes in poker, that's kind ofwhat you want to do. There's that phrase,
you don't play the player,you play the person.
(02:11):
But really you're playing a situation.
And the situation is that Lonis doesn'twant to play a lot of hands here because
of his stack setup and you'regoing to get a lot of fold equity.
So yes, Blom has King four,
but if Blom has Jack four or eight fouror ten three or for whatever reason he's
dealt more than one card,
I think he's going to be raising hereand I think that's the right thing to do.
Mike (02:32):
We ran this spot in Hold'em Resources calculator as we do before every
one of these WSOP hand breakdowns. Weinputted all the stacks, all the payouts,
so we know exactly how the computeris going to play this spot.
And it confirms what Aaron just said.
Viktor Blom is going to be raisinga lot of hands. When I ran this,
the computer had a lot ofgreen on the hand chart,
which indicates a lot of hands that canprofitably raise and a lot of hands that
(02:56):
could profitably just limp in as well.
Viktor Blom's specific hand of Kingfour offsuit really favors raising and
that's what he does. He makes it 700,000,which is three and a half big blinds.
Jesse Lonis picks up Ace threeof spades in the big blind.
Aaron just mentioned that Jesse Lonisshould be playing fairly tight in the big
blind here,
given that he's kind of trying to waitout those two shorter stacks and not bust
(03:20):
before them.But Ace three of spades very strong hand.
It still falls squarely intogood enough to call territory.
Even given that ICM pressure,
he does flick in that extra 500,000chips and we go to the flop with
1.6 million in the middle.Little note about these two guys,
these are two of the fastest playersI've ever seen at a big final table.
(03:43):
It's basically the antithesis to anyhigh roller final table I've ever seen
before. I think this entirehand takes about two minutes.
There are some players where this handwould take 10 minutes. In any case,
the flop comes four four three,with 2 clubs. Once again,
Viktor Blom has King four,
so he flops Trip fours and JesseLonis flops really well too.
He's got Ace three on four four three.
(04:06):
So both players have to be feelingpretty good about this flop,
but Jesse Lonis is going to get some badnews as the hand develops. What is your
take on how Viktor Blom should playthis flop after hitting trips? Aaron,
1.6 million in the middle.
Aaron (04:19):
So there's always a temptation to slow play when you hit a big hand,
especially on a lowish board thatdoesn't seem to hit your range.
But when you're an aggressive player,
especially when you're an aggressiveplayer and you have that image,
you want to be betting moreof your strong hands here.
And Blom can be betting hereanyway with a lot of hands.
We had said before he'sgoing to raise a lot pre,
(04:40):
he's going to apply a lot of pressure.
Well now he has a really great hand andhe still needs to be betting that sort
of combination otherwise are all hisbets just bluffs? That's not great.
So I think it's a great spotfor him to keep betting,
apply pressure to Lonis's range,
but also balance his own range outby having strong hands and sizing
(05:00):
wise,
I think going really small is the way togo because he is going be betting this
flop so often.
Mike (05:05):
Viktor Blom clearly agrees with you as he reaches for 400,000 chips and
throws them into the pot quite quickly.
That's a 400,000 chipbet into 1.6 million,
a 25% pot bet. Jesse Lonis,
I think clear call in position here withhis Ace three against this small bet.
Aaron (05:22):
Yeah, I think any other decision is bad.
I mean folding is way too tight.
Raising some people might say youraise or figure out where you're at.
That's not really a thing.
So when both other options are so badthen one's very clear. And I like a call.
Mike (05:38):
Jesse Lonis does quite quickly put in the call,
I think the flop action took about45 seconds total there and we get an
interesting turn. It's the six of spades.
So all the straight draws from theflop have now connected in some way.
They've either made a straight or apair hands like seven five, six five,
six two. All those types ofhands have connected in some way.
(05:59):
Viktor Blom with his Trip fours, noreason to slow down here, right Aaron?
He should just continue betting.
Aaron (06:04):
Definitely think Blom should continue betting here.
I know that a couplestraight draws got there,
but those aren't likely to be part ofLonis's range given what we talked about
pre flop where he should be folding more.
So would he ever have five deuce offsuit,
even seven five offsuit feels prettythin to defend here in the spot preflop.
Suited, you could make an argument for,
but you could also say that he should befolding those a little more because of
(06:27):
the stack sizes. So maybe hehas seven five suited, sure,
but five deuce suiteddoesn't seem as likely.
And so now we've eliminated basicallythree quarters of the possible straights.
But what he does have is he does haveseven six suited. He does have six five
suited. So he actuallyhas some straight draws.
I would say more straight draws that haveturned equity that will continue that
(06:48):
are worse than Blom's trips. And thatgives Blom another reason to bet.
Plus he gets value from threex that Lonis can have or club
draws or perhaps even ace highs.
So I think it's a great reason for Blomto keep betting and I think he should
size up given this texture.
Mike (07:08):
Blom does load up quite a big bet.
He goes for about 1.4 millioninto 2.4 million, so roughly 55,
60% pot. Jesse Lonis now ina fairly uncomfortable spot.
He's facing this relatively big bet.
It's a chunky portion of his stackand he's starting to approach
the shorter stacks if he calls hereand doesn't end up winning the pot.
(07:30):
So there's a lot on the line for him,
A lot more on the line than is for Blom.That said,
Ace three on four four three six,
probably just too strong of a hand tofold on the turn here, right Aaron?
I mean it's the best three you can have,
you have a ton of hands in yourrange like King queen one club,
queen jack one club, missedAce High that floated the flop,
(07:52):
perhaps some weaker draws.
So Ace three is actually one of thestronger hands in Jesse Lonis's range.
And if he folds this hand, he's probablygoing to find himself folding 60,
70% of the time on this turn,
which an aggressive player like ViktorBlom is going to exploit in his sleep.
What's your take on Lonis's spot?
Aaron (08:12):
I totally agree and let's for a second,
do the thought experiment offolding Ace three here. Alright,
so what does Lonis continuewith? Well, three of a kind.
If he has a four, he'll continue.If he has a six five or a seven six,
so a pair and a straight draw, he'llcontinue. If he has a big flush draw,
he'll continue. If he hasa straight he'll continue.
(08:34):
If that's his only continuingrange on this turn,
the range is way too strong first of all.
And if you're up againsteven an aggressive player who realizes that your range
is too strong, they're just not goingto be bluffing the river enough.
And so I think calling Ace three whilefeeling uncomfortable actually gives your
range a little more balance in that yes,
(08:55):
it's a pair and you feel thatyou have the best hand right now,
but it's also a hand that isn't nuttedthat you're not really trapping with.
And so your entire range isn'tjust traps and big draws,
it's these slightly weaker oractually much weaker made hands that
could fold to pressure and youdon't really want to fold them.
(09:16):
But part of playing good poker ishaving a balanced range. That means
having hands like that, thatwill fold to more pressure.
If your entire range is just, I havethe nuts. If someone figures that out,
why are they going to bet into you?
So having a hand that does fold a laterstreet like this one, to pressure,
I think while feeling kindof uncomfortable and yeah,
(09:37):
I don't want to call and just fold later,
I actually think having hands like thatin your range makes you tougher to play
against and that'sreally the ultimate goal.
Mike (09:45):
There was a really key nugget of advice that Aaron peppered in there,
and it's something that Doug Polk hasharped on for years when making poker
training content. It's okay. And in fact,
correct to have folds onevery street just because
a hand has to fold thenext street to aggression,
(10:06):
that doesn't mean you shouldn't callit on the current street. In fact,
you should have a foldingrange on every street.
That's how optimal poker is played. Now,
if you have a veryreliable exploitative read,
if you know your opponent is an absolutemonkey who's literally going to bet on
the river every singletime if you call the turn,
then sure you can fold more on theturn so you don't find yourself in that
(10:29):
crappy river scenario.
But against most players and even ViktorBlom who's a very aggressive player,
he is a thinking balanced player overall.
He's not going to just barrelthis river every single time.
And it's okay for Jesse Lonis to havea hand that's going to have to fold on
most rivers. So despite the fact thatthis Ace three on four four three six
(10:52):
doesn't look so great, doesn'tlook like an amazing scenario,
Jesse Lonis really has nochoice but to call the turn,
reevaluate on the river and just see whathappens. It's not a comfortable spot,
but sometimes you have to get intouncomfortable spots in poker. And indeed,
Jesse Lonis calls on the turn and wego to the river with 5.3 million in the
pot and it's the Queen ofspades. Four four three six
(11:17):
queen is the final board and theflush draw from the flop missed.
Viktor Blom quicklyloads up the clip again,
he's going to go for 3.2 millioninto this 5.3 million chip pot,
so about two thirds pot.
This is also about half ofJesse's remaining stack.
So this is a very high stakescenario for Jesse Lonis.
(11:37):
If he were to call and lose here,he would be down to 3.2 million.
He would actually be the shortest stackand he would be at risk of busting next
and missing out on thatnext really juicy pay jump,
which is about $180,000. Aaron,
what is your take on this river betsize of 3.2 million from Viktor Blom and
(11:57):
what do you think aboutJesse Lonis's spot?
Aaron (11:59):
I really like the bet size overall,
and we can see that Blomhas King four and has trips,
but this is a really tough spot forLonis because Blom is a very aggressive
player capable of applying pressurewith hands that bricked entirely.
And there are a lot of them on thistexture. He could have two missed clubs,
(12:21):
he could have a randomfive or a random seven.
What if Blom has King five or King sevenor even King Deuce or nine eight of
clubs? There are so many random handsthat Blom could use as bluffs here
where if I'm Lonis I'm thinking,well, he's a really aggressive player.
He knows it's a great spot to applypressure and I know he is going to do it
(12:41):
with so many combinations that Iwouldn't fault Lonis for making this
call. And I think in a cash gamesituation, if you have that read,
you should make this call a hundredtimes out of a hundred, right?
The player is capable of bluffingthe spot. A lot of draws bricked.
I don't block any of them,I'm going to make this call.
But in a tournament it isdifferent. And as you mentioned,
(13:03):
when Lonis loses this pot,
he goes down to a stack that's actuallygoing to be the shortest stack and that
drastically affects how much hisequity is in this tournament.
So it's not just purely,
do I have the best hand enoughpot odds wise to make this call?
You have to think about other factors,
which makes tournaments a lotmore complex. On the other hand,
we talked on the turn about Lonis havinga hand that could call turn and fold
(13:27):
river. And I know a lot ofplayers feel like, well,
if I call the turn andI fold a brick river,
I'm being exploited.When in the reality,
if you have a hand that never folds theriver, if you're just always going call,
call,
that's far more likely toget you exploited by a really good aggressive player.
And as you mentioned,
(13:47):
Blom is a very good aggressiveplayer and he's not a monkey,
as you described, who's justgoing to barrel all the time.
So I think it's a verytough spot for Lonis,
and I wouldn't fault himfor making either decision.
Mike (14:00):
Yeah,
maybe the Isildur1 of 12 years ago is themonkey who's going to barrel the river
every time, but he's grown into himself.
He's going to play probablymore reasonable overall.
Jesse Lonis tanks for quitea while, by his standards.
He counts out the calling chips,which is a smart thing to do.
He's now comparing that to what hewill have behind should he lose and
(14:24):
considering, okay, what position willI be in if this call is unsuccessful,
would I prefer to just conserve my stack?That's something you should be doing
constantly when you're running deepin tournaments and especially at final
tables.
Aaron (14:35):
Yeah, I think it's a really cool thing that he did here by doing that,
and a lot of players wouldn't evenconsider doing it. The other question is,
if he's folding this, what is he calling?
Obviously there's no handsthat, yeah, okay, straight,
but what are his herocall type hands here?
And maybe it's six fivebecause then that would block a
(15:00):
straight from Blom. I mean, maybe you'drather have Ace five than Ace three.
I'm not quite sure.
I think it is a really tough spot andthe ICM plays a significant factor,
as it always does, but as I said before,
I would not fault himfor making this call.
Mike (15:15):
He does consider the hero call for quite a long time,
but eventually looks like he's going tothink better of it and throw his cards
into the muck,
saving his 6.6 millionchips and keeping himself as
the third place chip stack.And with that pot,
Viktor Blom moves up to 17 millionjust behind Sergio Aido for
(15:35):
the chip lead. Keep in mind,
you can watch this entire final tableon PokerGo and see how it played out.
I'm not going to giveyou any spoilers here.
And if you want to upgrade yourtournament skills at a discount,
you should know that the WSOPSurvival Sale is happening right
now at upswingpoker.com throughout theentire duration of the main event from
day one, which started today untilthe champion hoist the bracelet,
(15:59):
all Upswing Lab plans are 33% off.
That's going to get you access to awealth of resources that is in the lab,
preflop charts, lessons,play and explains,
including from the guy nextto me, Aaron Barone. Aaron,
you've made quite a bit of content inthe lab now after being a coach for a
couple of months.
Can you speak to the type of stuff thatour viewers and listeners can expect to
(16:24):
find from you inside the lab?
Aaron (16:27):
Recently I released a module Five Common Mistakes that Tournament
Players Make. Took peoplethrough spots that are very,
very common mistakes and how youcan avoid them. Additionally,
I released a play and explain whereI covered one of my more recent final
tables.
Went through all the significant handsso you can see everything of importance
and took you on that journey towhere I spoiler end up shipping it.
(16:48):
So that's a great way to learn from meabout Final Table Play and the module I
released has more things about commonmistakes tournament players make,
how you can avoid them, how you can makemore deep runs and have bigger scores.
Mike (17:01):
That module is especially useful for people who dabble in tournaments
because that means you're going to havea lot of just common mistakes that you
make and you can really tighten the screwson your game quickly and efficiently
by checking out Aaron's module. And that10 or so part play and explain of him
shipping a nice sized tournamentonline is great as well.
He's really able to reveal a lot moreabout his strategy and how you should
(17:23):
approach your strategy than heever could on his Twitch dreams.
And it's all 33% off right now.
Just head over to upswingpoker.comto check it out and get in the lab.
If you enjoyed this episode,
please subscribe and follow toget notified about future ones.
We should be back next week barringa deep run in the WSOP Main Event
(17:44):
from Aaron or myself. We'll seeyou in the next one. Take care.
Over $2 million is going to the winner in this $50,000 buy-in tournament
at the World Series of Poker.
Let's take a look at a key handfeaturing an absolute legend of the game.
Viktor Blom, AKA Isildur1.
I'll quickly set up the situationbefore we get into the hand.
There are five players left and there's$2 million going to the winner like I
(00:21):
said,
each player has locked up littleunder $500,000 and the stack
set up are as follows.
Adrian Mateos is the shortstack with about 20 big blinds.
Chance Kornuth is covering him by alittle bit. He's got about 30 big blinds.
Jesse Lonis, who is one ofthe players in this hand,
goes into this hand with 47 big blinds.
So he's pulled away quite a bit fromthe fourth and fifth place spots.
(00:45):
And Adrian Mateos is really the one who'salmost on the ropes with only 20 big
blinds. And then there's two biggerstacks. Viktor Blom, AKA Isildur1,
he's got 14 million,which is 70 big blinds.
And Sergio Aido is the runaway chip leaderat this point with 20 million that's
over a hundred big blinds.
In this hand the action folds to ViktorBlom in the small blind. Once again,
(01:05):
it's Jesse Lonis in the Big Blind.
So Viktor Blom is the covering stackwith 14 million to Jesse Lonis's,
9.4 million.
Viktor Blom picks up King fouroffsuit in the small blind.
Today I'm joined by Tournament ProAaron Barone here to provide some expert
analysis as we gothrough this hand. Aaron,
how are you playing this spot as ViktorBlom when it folds to you as the bigger
(01:28):
stack?
Aaron (01:29):
So we saw Blom looked down at his cards,
but I'm pretty sure before he even looked,he thought to himself, I'm raising,
it's such a great spot to apply pressureto a middle stack of Jesse Lonis
because the other stacks are soshort or a lot shorter. Lonis is not
incentivized to play handshere. He makes money,
he makes equity by folding and so he'sgoing to be folding a lot of hands.
(01:50):
And so the fact that Blomhas King Four is pretty good.
It's great he's blocking some of thehands that Lonis would continue with.
But again, if you look deep in his soul,
I'm pretty sure that Blom was going toraise pre regardless of his holdings.
And sometimes in poker, that's kind ofwhat you want to do. There's that phrase,
you don't play the player,you play the person.
(02:11):
But really you're playing a situation.
And the situation is that Lonis doesn'twant to play a lot of hands here because
of his stack setup and you'regoing to get a lot of fold equity.
So yes, Blom has King four,
but if Blom has Jack four or eight fouror ten three or for whatever reason he's
dealt more than one card,
I think he's going to be raising hereand I think that's the right thing to do.
Mike (02:32):
We ran this spot in Hold'em Resources calculator as we do before every
one of these WSOP hand breakdowns. Weinputted all the stacks, all the payouts,
so we know exactly how the computeris going to play this spot.
And it confirms what Aaron just said.
Viktor Blom is going to be raisinga lot of hands. When I ran this,
the computer had a lot ofgreen on the hand chart,
which indicates a lot of hands that canprofitably raise and a lot of hands that
(02:56):
could profitably just limp in as well.
Viktor Blom's specific hand of Kingfour offsuit really favors raising and
that's what he does. He makes it 700,000,which is three and a half big blinds.
Jesse Lonis picks up Ace threeof spades in the big blind.
Aaron just mentioned that Jesse Lonisshould be playing fairly tight in the big
blind here,
given that he's kind of trying to waitout those two shorter stacks and not bust
(03:20):
before them.But Ace three of spades very strong hand.
It still falls squarely intogood enough to call territory.
Even given that ICM pressure,
he does flick in that extra 500,000chips and we go to the flop with
1.6 million in the middle.Little note about these two guys,
these are two of the fastest playersI've ever seen at a big final table.
(03:43):
It's basically the antithesis to anyhigh roller final table I've ever seen
before. I think this entirehand takes about two minutes.
There are some players where this handwould take 10 minutes. In any case,
the flop comes four four three,with 2 clubs. Once again,
Viktor Blom has King four,
so he flops Trip fours and JesseLonis flops really well too.
He's got Ace three on four four three.
(04:06):
So both players have to be feelingpretty good about this flop,
but Jesse Lonis is going to get some badnews as the hand develops. What is your
take on how Viktor Blom should playthis flop after hitting trips? Aaron,
1.6 million in the middle.
Aaron (04:19):
So there's always a temptation to slow play when you hit a big hand,
especially on a lowish board thatdoesn't seem to hit your range.
But when you're an aggressive player,
especially when you're an aggressiveplayer and you have that image,
you want to be betting moreof your strong hands here.
And Blom can be betting hereanyway with a lot of hands.
We had said before he'sgoing to raise a lot pre,
(04:40):
he's going to apply a lot of pressure.
Well now he has a really great hand andhe still needs to be betting that sort
of combination otherwise are all hisbets just bluffs? That's not great.
So I think it's a great spotfor him to keep betting,
apply pressure to Lonis's range,
but also balance his own range outby having strong hands and sizing
(05:00):
wise,
I think going really small is the way togo because he is going be betting this
flop so often.
Mike (05:05):
Viktor Blom clearly agrees with you as he reaches for 400,000 chips and
throws them into the pot quite quickly.
That's a 400,000 chipbet into 1.6 million,
a 25% pot bet. Jesse Lonis,
I think clear call in position here withhis Ace three against this small bet.
Aaron (05:22):
Yeah, I think any other decision is bad.
I mean folding is way too tight.
Raising some people might say youraise or figure out where you're at.
That's not really a thing.
So when both other options are so badthen one's very clear. And I like a call.
Mike (05:38):
Jesse Lonis does quite quickly put in the call,
I think the flop action took about45 seconds total there and we get an
interesting turn. It's the six of spades.
So all the straight draws from theflop have now connected in some way.
They've either made a straight or apair hands like seven five, six five,
six two. All those types ofhands have connected in some way.
(05:59):
Viktor Blom with his Trip fours, noreason to slow down here, right Aaron?
He should just continue betting.
Aaron (06:04):
Definitely think Blom should continue betting here.
I know that a couplestraight draws got there,
but those aren't likely to be part ofLonis's range given what we talked about
pre flop where he should be folding more.
So would he ever have five deuce offsuit,
even seven five offsuit feels prettythin to defend here in the spot preflop.
Suited, you could make an argument for,
but you could also say that he should befolding those a little more because of
(06:27):
the stack sizes. So maybe hehas seven five suited, sure,
but five deuce suiteddoesn't seem as likely.
And so now we've eliminated basicallythree quarters of the possible straights.
But what he does have is he does haveseven six suited. He does have six five
suited. So he actuallyhas some straight draws.
I would say more straight draws that haveturned equity that will continue that
(06:48):
are worse than Blom's trips. And thatgives Blom another reason to bet.
Plus he gets value from threex that Lonis can have or club
draws or perhaps even ace highs.
So I think it's a great reason for Blomto keep betting and I think he should
size up given this texture.
Mike (07:08):
Blom does load up quite a big bet.
He goes for about 1.4 millioninto 2.4 million, so roughly 55,
60% pot. Jesse Lonis now ina fairly uncomfortable spot.
He's facing this relatively big bet.
It's a chunky portion of his stackand he's starting to approach
the shorter stacks if he calls hereand doesn't end up winning the pot.
(07:30):
So there's a lot on the line for him,
A lot more on the line than is for Blom.That said,
Ace three on four four three six,
probably just too strong of a hand tofold on the turn here, right Aaron?
I mean it's the best three you can have,
you have a ton of hands in yourrange like King queen one club,
queen jack one club, missedAce High that floated the flop,
(07:52):
perhaps some weaker draws.
So Ace three is actually one of thestronger hands in Jesse Lonis's range.
And if he folds this hand, he's probablygoing to find himself folding 60,
70% of the time on this turn,
which an aggressive player like ViktorBlom is going to exploit in his sleep.
What's your take on Lonis's spot?
Aaron (08:12):
I totally agree and let's for a second,
do the thought experiment offolding Ace three here. Alright,
so what does Lonis continuewith? Well, three of a kind.
If he has a four, he'll continue.If he has a six five or a seven six,
so a pair and a straight draw, he'llcontinue. If he has a big flush draw,
he'll continue. If he hasa straight he'll continue.
(08:34):
If that's his only continuingrange on this turn,
the range is way too strong first of all.
And if you're up againsteven an aggressive player who realizes that your range
is too strong, they're just not goingto be bluffing the river enough.
And so I think calling Ace three whilefeeling uncomfortable actually gives your
range a little more balance in that yes,
(08:55):
it's a pair and you feel thatyou have the best hand right now,
but it's also a hand that isn't nuttedthat you're not really trapping with.
And so your entire range isn'tjust traps and big draws,
it's these slightly weaker oractually much weaker made hands that
could fold to pressure and youdon't really want to fold them.
(09:16):
But part of playing good poker ishaving a balanced range. That means
having hands like that, thatwill fold to more pressure.
If your entire range is just, I havethe nuts. If someone figures that out,
why are they going to bet into you?
So having a hand that does fold a laterstreet like this one, to pressure,
I think while feeling kindof uncomfortable and yeah,
(09:37):
I don't want to call and just fold later,
I actually think having hands like thatin your range makes you tougher to play
against and that'sreally the ultimate goal.
Mike (09:45):
There was a really key nugget of advice that Aaron peppered in there,
and it's something that Doug Polk hasharped on for years when making poker
training content. It's okay. And in fact,
correct to have folds onevery street just because
a hand has to fold thenext street to aggression,
(10:06):
that doesn't mean you shouldn't callit on the current street. In fact,
you should have a foldingrange on every street.
That's how optimal poker is played. Now,
if you have a veryreliable exploitative read,
if you know your opponent is an absolutemonkey who's literally going to bet on
the river every singletime if you call the turn,
then sure you can fold more on theturn so you don't find yourself in that
(10:29):
crappy river scenario.
But against most players and even ViktorBlom who's a very aggressive player,
he is a thinking balanced player overall.
He's not going to just barrelthis river every single time.
And it's okay for Jesse Lonis to havea hand that's going to have to fold on
most rivers. So despite the fact thatthis Ace three on four four three six
(10:52):
doesn't look so great, doesn'tlook like an amazing scenario,
Jesse Lonis really has nochoice but to call the turn,
reevaluate on the river and just see whathappens. It's not a comfortable spot,
but sometimes you have to get intouncomfortable spots in poker. And indeed,
Jesse Lonis calls on the turn and wego to the river with 5.3 million in the
pot and it's the Queen ofspades. Four four three six
(11:17):
queen is the final board and theflush draw from the flop missed.
Viktor Blom quicklyloads up the clip again,
he's going to go for 3.2 millioninto this 5.3 million chip pot,
so about two thirds pot.
This is also about half ofJesse's remaining stack.
So this is a very high stakescenario for Jesse Lonis.
(11:37):
If he were to call and lose here,he would be down to 3.2 million.
He would actually be the shortest stackand he would be at risk of busting next
and missing out on thatnext really juicy pay jump,
which is about $180,000. Aaron,
what is your take on this river betsize of 3.2 million from Viktor Blom and
(11:57):
what do you think aboutJesse Lonis's spot?
Aaron (11:59):
I really like the bet size overall,
and we can see that Blomhas King four and has trips,
but this is a really tough spot forLonis because Blom is a very aggressive
player capable of applying pressurewith hands that bricked entirely.
And there are a lot of them on thistexture. He could have two missed clubs,
(12:21):
he could have a randomfive or a random seven.
What if Blom has King five or King sevenor even King Deuce or nine eight of
clubs? There are so many random handsthat Blom could use as bluffs here
where if I'm Lonis I'm thinking,well, he's a really aggressive player.
He knows it's a great spot to applypressure and I know he is going to do it
(12:41):
with so many combinations that Iwouldn't fault Lonis for making this
call. And I think in a cash gamesituation, if you have that read,
you should make this call a hundredtimes out of a hundred, right?
The player is capable of bluffingthe spot. A lot of draws bricked.
I don't block any of them,I'm going to make this call.
But in a tournament it isdifferent. And as you mentioned,
(13:03):
when Lonis loses this pot,
he goes down to a stack that's actuallygoing to be the shortest stack and that
drastically affects how much hisequity is in this tournament.
So it's not just purely,
do I have the best hand enoughpot odds wise to make this call?
You have to think about other factors,
which makes tournaments a lotmore complex. On the other hand,
we talked on the turn about Lonis havinga hand that could call turn and fold
(13:27):
river. And I know a lot ofplayers feel like, well,
if I call the turn andI fold a brick river,
I'm being exploited.When in the reality,
if you have a hand that never folds theriver, if you're just always going call,
call,
that's far more likely toget you exploited by a really good aggressive player.
And as you mentioned,
(13:47):
Blom is a very good aggressiveplayer and he's not a monkey,
as you described, who's justgoing to barrel all the time.
So I think it's a verytough spot for Lonis,
and I wouldn't fault himfor making either decision.
Mike (14:00):
Yeah,
maybe the Isildur1 of 12 years ago is themonkey who's going to barrel the river
every time, but he's grown into himself.
He's going to play probablymore reasonable overall.
Jesse Lonis tanks for quitea while, by his standards.
He counts out the calling chips,which is a smart thing to do.
He's now comparing that to what hewill have behind should he lose and
(14:24):
considering, okay, what position willI be in if this call is unsuccessful,
would I prefer to just conserve my stack?That's something you should be doing
constantly when you're running deepin tournaments and especially at final
tables.
Aaron (14:35):
Yeah, I think it's a really cool thing that he did here by doing that,
and a lot of players wouldn't evenconsider doing it. The other question is,
if he's folding this, what is he calling?
Obviously there's no handsthat, yeah, okay, straight,
but what are his herocall type hands here?
And maybe it's six fivebecause then that would block a
(15:00):
straight from Blom. I mean, maybe you'drather have Ace five than Ace three.
I'm not quite sure.
I think it is a really tough spot andthe ICM plays a significant factor,
as it always does, but as I said before,
I would not fault himfor making this call.
Mike (15:15):
He does consider the hero call for quite a long time,
but eventually looks like he's going tothink better of it and throw his cards
into the muck,
saving his 6.6 millionchips and keeping himself as
the third place chip stack.And with that pot,
Viktor Blom moves up to 17 millionjust behind Sergio Aido for
(15:35):
the chip lead. Keep in mind,
you can watch this entire final tableon PokerGo and see how it played out.
I'm not going to giveyou any spoilers here.
And if you want to upgrade yourtournament skills at a discount,
you should know that the WSOPSurvival Sale is happening right
now at upswingpoker.com throughout theentire duration of the main event from
day one, which started today untilthe champion hoist the bracelet,
(15:59):
all Upswing Lab plans are 33% off.
That's going to get you access to awealth of resources that is in the lab,
preflop charts, lessons,play and explains,
including from the guy nextto me, Aaron Barone. Aaron,
you've made quite a bit of content inthe lab now after being a coach for a
couple of months.
Can you speak to the type of stuff thatour viewers and listeners can expect to
(16:24):
find from you inside the lab?
Aaron (16:27):
Recently I released a module Five Common Mistakes that Tournament
Players Make. Took peoplethrough spots that are very,
very common mistakes and how youcan avoid them. Additionally,
I released a play and explain whereI covered one of my more recent final
tables.
Went through all the significant handsso you can see everything of importance
and took you on that journey towhere I spoiler end up shipping it.
(16:48):
So that's a great way to learn from meabout Final Table Play and the module I
released has more things about commonmistakes tournament players make,
how you can avoid them, how you can makemore deep runs and have bigger scores.
Mike (17:01):
That module is especially useful for people who dabble in tournaments
because that means you're going to havea lot of just common mistakes that you
make and you can really tighten the screwson your game quickly and efficiently
by checking out Aaron's module. And that10 or so part play and explain of him
shipping a nice sized tournamentonline is great as well.
He's really able to reveal a lot moreabout his strategy and how you should
(17:23):
approach your strategy than heever could on his Twitch dreams.
And it's all 33% off right now.
Just head over to upswingpoker.comto check it out and get in the lab.
If you enjoyed this episode,
please subscribe and follow toget notified about future ones.
We should be back next week barringa deep run in the WSOP Main Event
(17:44):
from Aaron or myself. We'll seeyou in the next one. Take care.
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