July 17, 2024 • 17 mins
HAND RECAP (7 handed, 14 players left, 600K/1.2M blinds - 1.2M BB ante)
Coelho (13.3M chips) raises to 2.4M with A♦ A♣. Kristen Foxen (49M chips) calls in the Big Blind with K♦ K♣.
Flop A♠ T♥ 5♠. Foxen checks. Coelho bets 1.2M. Foxen calls.
Turn 8♥. Foxen checks. Coelho bets 3M. Foxen calls.
River 3♣. Foxen checks. Coelho bets 6.7M all-in. Foxen folds.
There’s $10 million on the line with just 2 tables left in the World Series of Poker Main Event. Kristen Foxen is one of, if not the most talented players left in the tournament, but she runs into the nightmare “Pocket Kings vs Pocket Aces” scenario in this hand. Can she sometimes find a way to NOT double up her opponent?
Get 33% off Aaron Barone's exclusive training content in the Upswing Lab during the Vegas Winners Sale* at https://upswingpoker.com/the-poker-lab-coaching
*Expires when the 2024 WSOP Main Event ends!
Watch the full final table at https://www.pokergo.com/
Written Version of This Episode
00:00 Introduction and Overview
01:26 Coelho's Min Raise with Pocket Aces
03:12 Kristen Foxen’s Decision with Pocket Kings
05:38 Flop Analysis: Ace-Ten-Five
08:06 Turn Play and Strategy with the Eight of Hearts
11:48 River Decisions and Final Moves
14:20 Post-Hand Analysis and Key Takeaways
16:47 Upswing Lab Promotion and Conclusion
In this episode of our poker strategy podcast, hosts Mike Brady and Aaron Barone analyze a dramatic hand from the World Series of Poker Main Event where pocket Aces face off against pocket Kings. With just 14 players remaining and a $10 million first prize at stake, every decision is crucial. This hand, involving an 11 big blind effective stack, unfolds in a surprising way that offers listeners a deep dive into the strategic complexities of tournament poker at the highest level.
The discussion begins by setting the stage for this intense showdown. Coelho, sitting on a short stack of 11 big blinds, opts to min-raise with pocket Aces instead of shoving all-in, a decision aimed at enticing action from his opponents. Mike and Aaron explore the merits of this approach, weighing the potential benefits of a smaller raise against the risks of allowing more players to see a flop. They discuss how this unconventional play can maximize value and create opportunities for trapping.
As the action unfolds, the focus shifts to Kristen Foxen in the big
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Mike (00:00):
Aces versus Kings in the World Series of Poker Main Event.
$10 million first prize,
11 big blind effective stacks andthe money somehow doesn't go in?
Let's see how this one played out andget expert analysis from coach Aaron
Barone in our final WSOPhand breakdown of the year.
(00:21):
Before we dive in,
I want to let you know that it's thelast day to get 33% off the Upswing Lab
over on upswingpoker.comduring our Vegas Winners sale.
If you want to upgrade yourskills, whether you play cash games or tournaments,
head over to Upswing and get in the Lab.
It has everything you need to get betterfast and this sale expires when the
main event winner hoisttheir bracelet. So Aaron,
(00:43):
we got a doozy today.
You want to go ahead and set up thesituation for our viewers and listeners?
Aaron (00:49):
Sure. So there's 14 left in the World Series of Poker Main Event.
We are sitting on a pay jump asin the next person who goes out,
will receive less than theperson who goes out after them.
So folded to the cutoff. One of theshort stacks, Coelho has pocket Aces,
pretty good hand to see.
He's sitting on 11 big blindsand he raises to 2.4 million.
Mike (01:09):
That is a min raise with the blinds at 600K,
1.2 million.
So Coelho decides to opt for ratherthan shoving all in for just 11 big
blinds, he's going to keep the pot small,
try to entice his opponents to play whenhe's holding the best possible hand.
What do you think of this approach, Aaron?
Aaron (01:26):
In this spot,
I think most of your range is going tojam or your continuing range anyway,
but you still want to have handsthat raise and when you do raise,
you are going to pick the min raisesizing off this stack size and Aces is the
best hand you can have and the hand youwant to use here for sure to min raise
with you are still going to getaction from players behind you.
(01:47):
The big blind might defend wide,
a hand like pocket sixes could re-jamfrom either button or small blind,
but a lot of the value comes in the bigblind defending and you getting to play
Aces in position with about half yourstack already in the middle or at least 5
million or so, 6 million in the middleand you having 11 million behind.
So I do like raising here. There areparts of my range that prefer to jam,
(02:09):
but this is not one of them.
Mike (02:10):
If you just think about how it's going to play out,
sometimes bad things will happen.
Sometimes you'll kind of slow playthese Aces like this, raise small.
Your opponent might callwith eight seven suited,
which they would've folded against anall in and maybe they flop a straight and
you have a bad beat story on your wayout of the World Series of Poker here.
But a lot of times what's going to happenis your opponent is going to flop a
(02:31):
pair of sevens with that eight sevenand you're going to win some extra chips
from them. So that's kind of thethinking behind this approach.
We did run this spot in an ICM calculatorand it does confirm that raising
to two big blinds does make significantlymore money in the long run compared
to shoving all in, but of courseshoving all in makes money as well,
(02:51):
so you kind of can't go wrong.
The action folds to KristenFoxen in the Big Blind,
one of the better playersleft at this stage arguably,
and she looks down at two Kings,
same suits even so she can't evenmake a flush to outdraw Coelho
and she's got 46 million in chips. She'sone of the kind of middling stacks,
about 40 big blinds going into the hand.
(03:12):
She definitely doesn't want to betaking huge, huge risks at this stage.
There's a lot of pay jumps thatare coming up as Aaron mentioned,
but she has pocket kings.
I mean this is a hand that you're goingto be willing to put in a lot of chips
with. The question is sitting in thebig blind here facing this small raise,
what are you doing and whatare your thoughts here, Aaron?
Aaron (03:30):
So depending on how your opponent sets their range up,
sometimes it is good totrap with a hand like kings.
People typically trap Aces here.It didn't use to be the case,
but it caught on in the last couple ofyears and it's a really smart play to
trap Aces out of the bigblind just at shallow stacks,
whether you're the shallowstack or your opponent is,
(03:51):
you have an unbeatable hand that you canbasically trap with by just defending
the big blind and checkingover to them on the flop.
With Kings it's a little differentbecause with pocket Kings,
your opponent can still call yourjam wider than if you had Aces.
So imagine you have pocket Aces herein the big blind. If you jam, well,
(04:11):
your opponent is less likelyto have a hand like Ace King,
Ace Queen or Ace Jack because you havetwo Aces. When you have two kings,
you unblock the Ace Queen, theace Jack, the Ace ten suited,
and if those hands call you when youshove in, great, you're 70% to win.
If those hands fold, you foldedout 30 ish percent equity.
So with kings here it istrickier than with Aces.
(04:34):
I think most of the timeI would opt just to jam.
I think Coelho's range is going to havesome traps in it and we see it's Aces,
but he could do the samething with Queens, Jack's,
tens and those hands are calling a jam.
And the other issue is if he has jacks,how many boards does he go broke on,
(04:55):
right? If he has tens, I mean theminute an over card comes out there,
he's going to slow down.
And so I actually think the best wayto get value versus Coelho's range with
kings here is to jam.
But if Foxen thinks he sets his rangeup with too many raise-folds and he's
willing to blast off on laterstreets, calling makes some sense.
Mike (05:14):
I think Kristen agrees with that second argument because she does
decide to slow play and just call.So now we're going into the flop.
There's already 6.6 million in thereand the effective stack Coelho has just
11 million, so less thantwo pots behind. In theory,
this actually is a very reasonablehand to trap in a lot of situations.
So you certainly can't fault KristenFoxen for making this call pre-flop.
(05:38):
In any case, the flop comes Ace tenfive, kind of a disaster for Coelho.
He's got to be feeling pretty goodabout winning the hand at this stage,
but it's got to be hard to get paid off,
especially against thehand that he's up against.
Kristen checks over to Coelho asshe would with all of her range.
And now Coelho has a decision to makemy gut reaction on this board. Aaron,
(06:00):
and you could tell meif I'm in line with you.
I'm tempted to check because I justhave the board so crushed, right?
It's hard for Kristen to have an acewhen I have two of them in my hand and
there's one on the board.
It's also possible that she would'vejust shoved all in pre-flop with an ace.
So it feels tough to get action if I bet,
but it's too suspicious if I don't betbecause this is a board that I should be
(06:22):
continuation betting very often andagainst a good player like Kristen Foxen.
If I check back on this flop,
I think alarm bells are going to begoing off in her head and she's going to
have a pretty good idea that I'm goingto often have a strong hand and she's not
going to be willing to put a bunch ofchips in with marginal holdings on later
streets. What are your thoughts?
Aaron (06:40):
I totally agree and a lot of players are eager to
slow play and trap,
but if you're an aggressive player andyou have a really good hand when you slow
down, it actually is whatsets off the alarm bells.
So here I would be more suspicious ofa check from Coelho if I'm Kristen,
than a bet.
(07:01):
This is a board that Coelho is goingto bet with almost his entire range,
probably his entire range should actuallybetting given how condensed it is.
We were talking about how hisrange looks pre flop and yeah,
it's some high pairs, but maybe it'salso Ace King suited, Ace Queen suited.
Maybe there's some weakersuited Aces in there too.
Perhaps there's some weak suited Broadwaysin there. Maybe a king queen suited,
(07:22):
a queen jack suited, right?
So his range overall is so strong itis going to bet this flop most really I
would say all the time.
I would actually say a hundred percentof the time his range should be betting
this flop.
And if he ends up slowing down with ahand this strong and then making some
moves on turn or river, thenFoxen's going to think, well,
I mean why didn't he justcontinuation bet the flop?
(07:43):
I actually think his rangelooks weaker by betting here.
I would say players oftenthink the opposite, right? Oh, a check I'll look weak.
Well, a check on a board,
you should bet all the time that's goodfor your range actually looks really
strong. It does the oppositeof what you're trying to do.
So I like betting here. Ilike the sizing he picks.
I was going to say one bigblind is what I would go,
(08:04):
but anywhere between one and oneand a half big blind seems fine.
Mike (08:06):
Coelho does bet exactly one big blind into the roughly five and
a half big blind pot andnow it's back on Kristen.
She's got a call 1.2 million towin the 7.8 million in the middle.
It's already probably feeling a littlebit dicey for her because Coelho raised
from the cutoff preflop off a short stack.
(08:27):
He chose to just min raiserather than shove all in.
He's going to have a lot of aceand something else in his hand.
Maybe he can have king tenoffsuit or something like that.
I guess that's possible kind offarfetched in the main event.
I don't think a lot of players will makethat play preflop, but it is possible.
But the point is his range is justso tight out of the cutoff that she's
(08:49):
probably already not feeling too greatabout this even against the one big blind
bet. That said, would you agree thatshe kind of doesn't have a choice?
She's got a call that justsmall bet there, right Aaron?
Aaron (08:59):
Yeah, I definitely want to call one. It is actually one big blind,
and you're right, A lot of his weakerhands that she beat pre-flop were Ace X,
Ace eight suited, ace ninesuited, ace jack, ace queen,
and she's behind those now. Sowhile she was trapping pre flop,
this is a disaster flop for her andreally her best hope is that he has a hand
(09:19):
like a Broadway combo or he has a handlike Queens and Jacks and is going to
slow down, but foldingreally can't do that here.
Still getting a good enough price tocontinue raisings out of the question.
So she just makes a call.
Mike (09:32):
With 9 million in the middle. The turn comes the eight of hearts.
So the board is Ace ten five withtwo spades turn eight of hearts,
that's the second heart. So there'stwo flush draws on the board now.
9 million in the middle.Kristen checks over to Coelho,
he's got 9.7 million behind andthere's 9 million in there like I said,
what do you think, Aaron? I mean ifI had a hand like Ace King as Coelho,
(09:54):
I think I'd want to go all in,but with specifically this hand,
what are your thoughts?
Aaron (09:59):
We had a hand on the Upswing breakdowns that
we did before for the WSOP wheresomeone slow played a little bit,
their opponent caught up and peoplewere very against the idea of slow play
and that is going to happensometimes just part of the game.
But you're right thathe has a top set here.
(10:20):
I would prefer to check this back andI know that there are a lot of draws
possible and I'm allowing myopponent to draw for free,
but if I end up jamming here,
I don't know how many worse hands callmy jam, a hand as strong as king ten,
a hand as strong as Ace four.
I don't know if that hand's going toactually call a jam in this spot and those
(10:42):
are near top of rangethat aren't like two pair.
It's hard to imagine she actually has aset in this spot even though she might
play tens the same way,but I'm not really sure.
I really like checking and yes, yougive your opponent a chance to catch up,
but you also give him a chance to bluffand that might be how you get value in
the spot.
Mike (10:59):
I think a lot of the hands he'd get value from too are
the ones where he's justin a cooler situation.
Like when Kristen does have pocket tensthat she slow played pre flop somehow
and has a set of tens. Maybeshe has Ace five for two pair,
maybe she has pocket fives for bottom set.
He's probably going to stackthose hands no matter what.
(11:20):
Even I think on a riverthat completes draws,
I think they might just get the money in.
There's just so little behind or they'llat least get a substantial amount of
the money in on the river.
So against hands that he'sgoing to stack on the turn,
he's going to probably stack them anywayor at least win a lot of chips from
them anyway.
I guess the only upside to jammingis you get draws that have equity to
fold. So it's pretty nice to getQueen Jack to fold here, right?
(11:44):
Because it has eight outs to beat you.
So that's an upside to bettingin general, not just jamming.
Let's go ahead and see whatCoelho decided to do here.
This is an absolutely pivotalmoment in the tournament for him.
If he gets this right,
he could basically punch his ticket tothe final table or near punch his ticket
to the final table. If he gets it wrong,
(12:04):
he's still going to be one of theshorter stacks and he does decide to bet
again, but it's not all in, it looks like.
It looks like he's going to gofor kind of an in-betweener size.
This is kind of looking suspicious to me.
He goes 3 million into 9 millionand he leaves 6.7 million
behind. So it kind offeels like he's committed.
If he's bluffing with a drawand then she goes all in,
(12:26):
he's committed to call it offdepending on what the draw is.
So for him to really be bluffing here,
he has to have a handwith almost no equity.
Maybe it's hard to even think ofone, maybe like queen ten offsuit.
He's turning a pair of tens into abluff trying to get her to fold an ace,
and I'm really twisting my brain intoa pretzel even trying to come up with
(12:49):
that. It's not veryrealistic. What do you think?
Aaron (12:52):
Yeah, I think the bottom is range here are going to be broadway combos.
So maybe there's a KingJack, one heart, one spade.
For some reason he raised pre well yeah,
or King heart Jack Spade. Sure,whatever King Jack, that's really it.
King queen maybe. And unfortunatelyfor Kristen, she blocks those.
(13:13):
So it's really hard to imaginehow he has a hand that she beats
unless it's a Broadway combo.And even then, like as you said,
king jack might be the onlyhand that folds to a jam.
Queen Jack at that pointis not going to be folding.
And I mentioned king jack or king Queen,
but hearts aren't foldingand spades aren't folding,
and those are both still inhis range. So given the sizing,
(13:35):
it is really suspicious. And I wouldn'tfault Kristen for folding right now,
and I would actually guess if her kingswere king of heart, king of spade,
she would fold right nowbecause at that point now
you block the hands that you hope he has,
which are king queen ofspades, king jack of hearts.
(13:58):
But she happens to have two kings thatactually don't interact with the flush
draws. And so I can see hercontinuing for one more street,
even though it is a reallysmall suspicious size.
Mike (14:07):
She's getting a great price.
I mean she has to call 3 million to win12 million. Once again, she has Kings,
diamond, club for those listening onthe audio platforms, Ace ten five eight,
two spades, two hearts.
So what Aaron was saying there as weawait Kristen's decision is the hands that
Coelho would be bluffingwith like a king of spades,
(14:28):
jack of hearts that blocks theflush draws and has a straight draw.
You don't block those hands. So maybethat's what enticed her into a call here.
Doesn't block those draws, potentiallyKing X of spades or whatever.
She does call 15 million in themiddle three of clubs on the river.
What a beautiful runout for Coelhostill has the effective nuts.
(14:50):
Kristen would have to show up with theold four two to somehow have him beat
here and he's got about half pot behind.
It's an automatic decision on the river.
I'm sure he's going to think about itfor a moment and then eventually drop the
chips in.
Coelho does eventually dropin the 6.7 million chip bet,
Kristen asked for a count, looksvisibly uncomfortable right away,
(15:14):
only beats a bluff.
We've already talked at length aboutwhat those potential bluffs could be.
She blocks some of them maybe.She does pretty quickly fold,
which I think is in line with kindof how you would've approached it,
at least on the river, right, Aaron?
Aaron (15:29):
Yeah, I would've folded. As you said,
she blocks some of the bluffs hemight have with Broadway cards.
And the other thing is you have to wonder,
even if he has potentialbluffs on the river,
is he going to pull thetrigger and bluff them?
That's the thing about spots where youget to the river and your opponent might
be bluffing and might not, right? He'salways going to jam Aces for value.
(15:51):
People are going to alwaysjam the nuts for value,
but even when they have bluff combos andthey theoretically should bluff them,
they won't always do it.
And so part of it is her hand andhow she thinks his range looks.
But another part of it's is hewilling to put the rest in on a bluff
day eight of the main event whenhe's got about 40% pot behind?
(16:15):
So she has to weigh that and she decidesvery quickly that he is not going to do
it. And correctly folds.
Mike (16:20):
Wise decision from Kristen there and somehow not getting stacked with
Kings versus Aces for 11 blinds, shemaybe could have folded the turn,
but it's kind of splitting hairs becausethis is a small loss relative to what
it could have been consideringthe matchup pre-flop.
That's how I busted the main event thisyear, by the way, Kings versus Aces,
sprinkle in a littlebad beat for the fans.
(16:41):
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(17:04):
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(17:25):
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head over to upswingpoker.com and getin the lab. Thank you for listening.
Thank you for watching theWSOP hand breakdown this year.
We had a lot of fun bringing it to you,and we will see you in the next one.
Aces versus Kings in the World Series of Poker Main Event.
$10 million first prize,
11 big blind effective stacks andthe money somehow doesn't go in?
Let's see how this one played out andget expert analysis from coach Aaron
Barone in our final WSOPhand breakdown of the year.
(00:21):
Before we dive in,
I want to let you know that it's thelast day to get 33% off the Upswing Lab
over on upswingpoker.comduring our Vegas Winners sale.
If you want to upgrade yourskills, whether you play cash games or tournaments,
head over to Upswing and get in the Lab.
It has everything you need to get betterfast and this sale expires when the
main event winner hoisttheir bracelet. So Aaron,
(00:43):
we got a doozy today.
You want to go ahead and set up thesituation for our viewers and listeners?
Aaron (00:49):
Sure. So there's 14 left in the World Series of Poker Main Event.
We are sitting on a pay jump asin the next person who goes out,
will receive less than theperson who goes out after them.
So folded to the cutoff. One of theshort stacks, Coelho has pocket Aces,
pretty good hand to see.
He's sitting on 11 big blindsand he raises to 2.4 million.
Mike (01:09):
That is a min raise with the blinds at 600K,
1.2 million.
So Coelho decides to opt for ratherthan shoving all in for just 11 big
blinds, he's going to keep the pot small,
try to entice his opponents to play whenhe's holding the best possible hand.
What do you think of this approach, Aaron?
Aaron (01:26):
In this spot,
I think most of your range is going tojam or your continuing range anyway,
but you still want to have handsthat raise and when you do raise,
you are going to pick the min raisesizing off this stack size and Aces is the
best hand you can have and the hand youwant to use here for sure to min raise
with you are still going to getaction from players behind you.
(01:47):
The big blind might defend wide,
a hand like pocket sixes could re-jamfrom either button or small blind,
but a lot of the value comes in the bigblind defending and you getting to play
Aces in position with about half yourstack already in the middle or at least 5
million or so, 6 million in the middleand you having 11 million behind.
So I do like raising here. There areparts of my range that prefer to jam,
(02:09):
but this is not one of them.
Mike (02:10):
If you just think about how it's going to play out,
sometimes bad things will happen.
Sometimes you'll kind of slow playthese Aces like this, raise small.
Your opponent might callwith eight seven suited,
which they would've folded against anall in and maybe they flop a straight and
you have a bad beat story on your wayout of the World Series of Poker here.
But a lot of times what's going to happenis your opponent is going to flop a
(02:31):
pair of sevens with that eight sevenand you're going to win some extra chips
from them. So that's kind of thethinking behind this approach.
We did run this spot in an ICM calculatorand it does confirm that raising
to two big blinds does make significantlymore money in the long run compared
to shoving all in, but of courseshoving all in makes money as well,
(02:51):
so you kind of can't go wrong.
The action folds to KristenFoxen in the Big Blind,
one of the better playersleft at this stage arguably,
and she looks down at two Kings,
same suits even so she can't evenmake a flush to outdraw Coelho
and she's got 46 million in chips. She'sone of the kind of middling stacks,
about 40 big blinds going into the hand.
(03:12):
She definitely doesn't want to betaking huge, huge risks at this stage.
There's a lot of pay jumps thatare coming up as Aaron mentioned,
but she has pocket kings.
I mean this is a hand that you're goingto be willing to put in a lot of chips
with. The question is sitting in thebig blind here facing this small raise,
what are you doing and whatare your thoughts here, Aaron?
Aaron (03:30):
So depending on how your opponent sets their range up,
sometimes it is good totrap with a hand like kings.
People typically trap Aces here.It didn't use to be the case,
but it caught on in the last couple ofyears and it's a really smart play to
trap Aces out of the bigblind just at shallow stacks,
whether you're the shallowstack or your opponent is,
(03:51):
you have an unbeatable hand that you canbasically trap with by just defending
the big blind and checkingover to them on the flop.
With Kings it's a little differentbecause with pocket Kings,
your opponent can still call yourjam wider than if you had Aces.
So imagine you have pocket Aces herein the big blind. If you jam, well,
(04:11):
your opponent is less likelyto have a hand like Ace King,
Ace Queen or Ace Jack because you havetwo Aces. When you have two kings,
you unblock the Ace Queen, theace Jack, the Ace ten suited,
and if those hands call you when youshove in, great, you're 70% to win.
If those hands fold, you foldedout 30 ish percent equity.
So with kings here it istrickier than with Aces.
(04:34):
I think most of the timeI would opt just to jam.
I think Coelho's range is going to havesome traps in it and we see it's Aces,
but he could do the samething with Queens, Jack's,
tens and those hands are calling a jam.
And the other issue is if he has jacks,how many boards does he go broke on,
(04:55):
right? If he has tens, I mean theminute an over card comes out there,
he's going to slow down.
And so I actually think the best wayto get value versus Coelho's range with
kings here is to jam.
But if Foxen thinks he sets his rangeup with too many raise-folds and he's
willing to blast off on laterstreets, calling makes some sense.
Mike (05:14):
I think Kristen agrees with that second argument because she does
decide to slow play and just call.So now we're going into the flop.
There's already 6.6 million in thereand the effective stack Coelho has just
11 million, so less thantwo pots behind. In theory,
this actually is a very reasonablehand to trap in a lot of situations.
So you certainly can't fault KristenFoxen for making this call pre-flop.
(05:38):
In any case, the flop comes Ace tenfive, kind of a disaster for Coelho.
He's got to be feeling pretty goodabout winning the hand at this stage,
but it's got to be hard to get paid off,
especially against thehand that he's up against.
Kristen checks over to Coelho asshe would with all of her range.
And now Coelho has a decision to makemy gut reaction on this board. Aaron,
(06:00):
and you could tell meif I'm in line with you.
I'm tempted to check because I justhave the board so crushed, right?
It's hard for Kristen to have an acewhen I have two of them in my hand and
there's one on the board.
It's also possible that she would'vejust shoved all in pre-flop with an ace.
So it feels tough to get action if I bet,
but it's too suspicious if I don't betbecause this is a board that I should be
(06:22):
continuation betting very often andagainst a good player like Kristen Foxen.
If I check back on this flop,
I think alarm bells are going to begoing off in her head and she's going to
have a pretty good idea that I'm goingto often have a strong hand and she's not
going to be willing to put a bunch ofchips in with marginal holdings on later
streets. What are your thoughts?
Aaron (06:40):
I totally agree and a lot of players are eager to
slow play and trap,
but if you're an aggressive player andyou have a really good hand when you slow
down, it actually is whatsets off the alarm bells.
So here I would be more suspicious ofa check from Coelho if I'm Kristen,
than a bet.
(07:01):
This is a board that Coelho is goingto bet with almost his entire range,
probably his entire range should actuallybetting given how condensed it is.
We were talking about how hisrange looks pre flop and yeah,
it's some high pairs, but maybe it'salso Ace King suited, Ace Queen suited.
Maybe there's some weakersuited Aces in there too.
Perhaps there's some weak suited Broadwaysin there. Maybe a king queen suited,
(07:22):
a queen jack suited, right?
So his range overall is so strong itis going to bet this flop most really I
would say all the time.
I would actually say a hundred percentof the time his range should be betting
this flop.
And if he ends up slowing down with ahand this strong and then making some
moves on turn or river, thenFoxen's going to think, well,
I mean why didn't he justcontinuation bet the flop?
(07:43):
I actually think his rangelooks weaker by betting here.
I would say players oftenthink the opposite, right? Oh, a check I'll look weak.
Well, a check on a board,
you should bet all the time that's goodfor your range actually looks really
strong. It does the oppositeof what you're trying to do.
So I like betting here. Ilike the sizing he picks.
I was going to say one bigblind is what I would go,
(08:04):
but anywhere between one and oneand a half big blind seems fine.
Mike (08:06):
Coelho does bet exactly one big blind into the roughly five and
a half big blind pot andnow it's back on Kristen.
She's got a call 1.2 million towin the 7.8 million in the middle.
It's already probably feeling a littlebit dicey for her because Coelho raised
from the cutoff preflop off a short stack.
(08:27):
He chose to just min raiserather than shove all in.
He's going to have a lot of aceand something else in his hand.
Maybe he can have king tenoffsuit or something like that.
I guess that's possible kind offarfetched in the main event.
I don't think a lot of players will makethat play preflop, but it is possible.
But the point is his range is justso tight out of the cutoff that she's
(08:49):
probably already not feeling too greatabout this even against the one big blind
bet. That said, would you agree thatshe kind of doesn't have a choice?
She's got a call that justsmall bet there, right Aaron?
Aaron (08:59):
Yeah, I definitely want to call one. It is actually one big blind,
and you're right, A lot of his weakerhands that she beat pre-flop were Ace X,
Ace eight suited, ace ninesuited, ace jack, ace queen,
and she's behind those now. Sowhile she was trapping pre flop,
this is a disaster flop for her andreally her best hope is that he has a hand
(09:19):
like a Broadway combo or he has a handlike Queens and Jacks and is going to
slow down, but foldingreally can't do that here.
Still getting a good enough price tocontinue raisings out of the question.
So she just makes a call.
Mike (09:32):
With 9 million in the middle. The turn comes the eight of hearts.
So the board is Ace ten five withtwo spades turn eight of hearts,
that's the second heart. So there'stwo flush draws on the board now.
9 million in the middle.Kristen checks over to Coelho,
he's got 9.7 million behind andthere's 9 million in there like I said,
what do you think, Aaron? I mean ifI had a hand like Ace King as Coelho,
(09:54):
I think I'd want to go all in,but with specifically this hand,
what are your thoughts?
Aaron (09:59):
We had a hand on the Upswing breakdowns that
we did before for the WSOP wheresomeone slow played a little bit,
their opponent caught up and peoplewere very against the idea of slow play
and that is going to happensometimes just part of the game.
But you're right thathe has a top set here.
(10:20):
I would prefer to check this back andI know that there are a lot of draws
possible and I'm allowing myopponent to draw for free,
but if I end up jamming here,
I don't know how many worse hands callmy jam, a hand as strong as king ten,
a hand as strong as Ace four.
I don't know if that hand's going toactually call a jam in this spot and those
(10:42):
are near top of rangethat aren't like two pair.
It's hard to imagine she actually has aset in this spot even though she might
play tens the same way,but I'm not really sure.
I really like checking and yes, yougive your opponent a chance to catch up,
but you also give him a chance to bluffand that might be how you get value in
the spot.
Mike (10:59):
I think a lot of the hands he'd get value from too are
the ones where he's justin a cooler situation.
Like when Kristen does have pocket tensthat she slow played pre flop somehow
and has a set of tens. Maybeshe has Ace five for two pair,
maybe she has pocket fives for bottom set.
He's probably going to stackthose hands no matter what.
(11:20):
Even I think on a riverthat completes draws,
I think they might just get the money in.
There's just so little behind or they'llat least get a substantial amount of
the money in on the river.
So against hands that he'sgoing to stack on the turn,
he's going to probably stack them anywayor at least win a lot of chips from
them anyway.
I guess the only upside to jammingis you get draws that have equity to
fold. So it's pretty nice to getQueen Jack to fold here, right?
(11:44):
Because it has eight outs to beat you.
So that's an upside to bettingin general, not just jamming.
Let's go ahead and see whatCoelho decided to do here.
This is an absolutely pivotalmoment in the tournament for him.
If he gets this right,
he could basically punch his ticket tothe final table or near punch his ticket
to the final table. If he gets it wrong,
(12:04):
he's still going to be one of theshorter stacks and he does decide to bet
again, but it's not all in, it looks like.
It looks like he's going to gofor kind of an in-betweener size.
This is kind of looking suspicious to me.
He goes 3 million into 9 millionand he leaves 6.7 million
behind. So it kind offeels like he's committed.
If he's bluffing with a drawand then she goes all in,
(12:26):
he's committed to call it offdepending on what the draw is.
So for him to really be bluffing here,
he has to have a handwith almost no equity.
Maybe it's hard to even think ofone, maybe like queen ten offsuit.
He's turning a pair of tens into abluff trying to get her to fold an ace,
and I'm really twisting my brain intoa pretzel even trying to come up with
(12:49):
that. It's not veryrealistic. What do you think?
Aaron (12:52):
Yeah, I think the bottom is range here are going to be broadway combos.
So maybe there's a KingJack, one heart, one spade.
For some reason he raised pre well yeah,
or King heart Jack Spade. Sure,whatever King Jack, that's really it.
King queen maybe. And unfortunatelyfor Kristen, she blocks those.
(13:13):
So it's really hard to imaginehow he has a hand that she beats
unless it's a Broadway combo.And even then, like as you said,
king jack might be the onlyhand that folds to a jam.
Queen Jack at that pointis not going to be folding.
And I mentioned king jack or king Queen,
but hearts aren't foldingand spades aren't folding,
and those are both still inhis range. So given the sizing,
(13:35):
it is really suspicious. And I wouldn'tfault Kristen for folding right now,
and I would actually guess if her kingswere king of heart, king of spade,
she would fold right nowbecause at that point now
you block the hands that you hope he has,
which are king queen ofspades, king jack of hearts.
(13:58):
But she happens to have two kings thatactually don't interact with the flush
draws. And so I can see hercontinuing for one more street,
even though it is a reallysmall suspicious size.
Mike (14:07):
She's getting a great price.
I mean she has to call 3 million to win12 million. Once again, she has Kings,
diamond, club for those listening onthe audio platforms, Ace ten five eight,
two spades, two hearts.
So what Aaron was saying there as weawait Kristen's decision is the hands that
Coelho would be bluffingwith like a king of spades,
(14:28):
jack of hearts that blocks theflush draws and has a straight draw.
You don't block those hands. So maybethat's what enticed her into a call here.
Doesn't block those draws, potentiallyKing X of spades or whatever.
She does call 15 million in themiddle three of clubs on the river.
What a beautiful runout for Coelhostill has the effective nuts.
(14:50):
Kristen would have to show up with theold four two to somehow have him beat
here and he's got about half pot behind.
It's an automatic decision on the river.
I'm sure he's going to think about itfor a moment and then eventually drop the
chips in.
Coelho does eventually dropin the 6.7 million chip bet,
Kristen asked for a count, looksvisibly uncomfortable right away,
(15:14):
only beats a bluff.
We've already talked at length aboutwhat those potential bluffs could be.
She blocks some of them maybe.She does pretty quickly fold,
which I think is in line with kindof how you would've approached it,
at least on the river, right, Aaron?
Aaron (15:29):
Yeah, I would've folded. As you said,
she blocks some of the bluffs hemight have with Broadway cards.
And the other thing is you have to wonder,
even if he has potentialbluffs on the river,
is he going to pull thetrigger and bluff them?
That's the thing about spots where youget to the river and your opponent might
be bluffing and might not, right? He'salways going to jam Aces for value.
(15:51):
People are going to alwaysjam the nuts for value,
but even when they have bluff combos andthey theoretically should bluff them,
they won't always do it.
And so part of it is her hand andhow she thinks his range looks.
But another part of it's is hewilling to put the rest in on a bluff
day eight of the main event whenhe's got about 40% pot behind?
(16:15):
So she has to weigh that and she decidesvery quickly that he is not going to do
it. And correctly folds.
Mike (16:20):
Wise decision from Kristen there and somehow not getting stacked with
Kings versus Aces for 11 blinds, shemaybe could have folded the turn,
but it's kind of splitting hairs becausethis is a small loss relative to what
it could have been consideringthe matchup pre-flop.
That's how I busted the main event thisyear, by the way, Kings versus Aces,
sprinkle in a littlebad beat for the fans.
(16:41):
As I mentioned at the start of thisepisode, the Vegas winners sale,
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(17:04):
Each module covers a critical topic orconcept and will quickly help you improve
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So you never make a mistake before theflop and you get access to a private
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Aaron has some great content in thelab that will help you improve your
(17:25):
tournament game and a little scoop,
Doug Polk is currently working on a livepoker module that's going to be coming
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head over to upswingpoker.com and getin the lab. Thank you for listening.
Thank you for watching theWSOP hand breakdown this year.
We had a lot of fun bringing it to you,and we will see you in the next one.
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