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January 7, 2026 • 17 mins
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
All right, we're back, and I realized we have not
talked about Venezuela at all today, which has got to
be some kind of record after the last few days.
But joining me now from that most favored publication online,
the Free Press dot com, Eli Lake has been writing
about Venezuela. He's been writing about Marco Rubio, and now
we're going to talk about it on the show. First
of all, Eli, welcome to the show.

Speaker 2 (00:22):
Thanks so much for having me. It's great to be here,
my first time on Well.

Speaker 1 (00:25):
Welcome, and I hope this is the first of many visits. Now,
how much have you been paying attention to Venezuela in
recent years, months, whatever? When did you start dialing in
on this.

Speaker 2 (00:38):
Now I started writing about Venezuela. I'd probably been on
this story for more than twenty years. I covered an
election that I believed after talking to the Venezuelan opposition,
the Hugo Shaves stolen two thousand and four. I have
been monitoring it somebody whos covers national security. It's been
a challenge in the Western hemisphere, the close between Shavas

(01:02):
and then Maduro, with China and Russia and now more
recently Iran. So It's something I've been watching for a
while and it's really remarkable to kind of see finally Maduro,
you know, facing some justice and hopefully we will see
the transition or what I like to think of as
the restoration of Venezuelan democracy, because Venezuela has a long

(01:23):
history of democratic institutions and we shouldn't forget that.

Speaker 1 (01:27):
Well, see, and not that far, not that long ago,
they had a history of democratic institutions, so we have
It's not like they have to go back to their
grandmother to hear stories of what it was like like
Cubans do, right, you know, Cubans now have to go
to their grandparents to hear what Cuba was like before
the revolution, but in.

Speaker 2 (01:44):
Venezuela, and also Cuba wasn't really democratic before the revolution.
I think that Castro has made the island much worse.
And you know, the Castros are dead and now it's
and the communist regime, I should say, but you know,
under Batista it was an authoritarian state. It wasn't great.
I don't think they deserved a communist revolution, and I
think that that is you know, kind of driven in

(02:06):
the Cuban into ruin. But it's not like Venezuela, and
that Venezuela does have a strong democratic tradition.

Speaker 1 (02:13):
So Eli, let me ask you this from your perspective,
since you've been following this for a long long time,
can you talk about the strategic nature of not just
bringing Venezuela back into the US fold, but also the
kind of stuff that's been happening in Central and South America.
I talk a lot on the show about China's investments
in Central and South America that are significant. I went

(02:36):
to Costa Rica a few years ago and was blown
away to find out that China had built the beautiful
soccer stadium in San Jose. And not only did they
build it, they didn't just fund it. They brought in
Chinese workers and built a Chinese city so they could
build this Chinese stadium for free in Costa Rica. And
I don't know how that can't raise antenna and say,
wait a minute, you know this is something we should

(02:57):
be paying attention to. So strategically, how does this line
up with sort of a better plan for Central and
South America.

Speaker 2 (03:05):
Well, there's a couple of things that China does. It
goes to developing nations and it offers a lot of
development infrastructure upfront. But this is known as a debt
trap because what you know, it also engages an incredible
kind of bribery schemes with political leadership. But you know,
paying for the infrastructure for a lot of these countries,

(03:28):
you know, kind of makes the governments themselves beholden to China.
And then the second thing is that you know, if
you look at a company like Huawei, which is the
Chinese telecom Huawei, because it has some built in advantages,
it has kind of an unlimited fund from the state,
it can out it can underprice almost all of its competitors.

(03:50):
And I'm not just talking about actual cell phones, but
in terms of building the cell towers and things like that.
But what is China get. It gets all of the data.
And that's why Huawei is banned by you know, the
military and the US government. And we had a you know,
a few years back, but there was an effort to
try to basically get our allies all over the world

(04:11):
not to allow Huawei to build their sell infrastructure. It's
things like that which kind of give China this huge advantage.
And it's done under kind of the iegis of international development,
International aid we're trying to help people. So in that respect,
it is dangerous because when you get when you're a country,

(04:32):
you get in one of these debt traps, it pretty
much you know, over time, you become a satrope or
a colony in some ways of China, and that's a
real problem.

Speaker 1 (04:40):
I mean, it sounds like sort of like the payday
loan situation that people would understand that analogy a little bit.
The payday loans gets you into a debt cycle you
can't get out of. So where does Venezuela and its
relationship with China and its relationship with Iran? What is
the near term effect for Venezuela and what we're doing now,
how does that ripple effect out with those two specific partners.

Speaker 2 (05:04):
We have to see at this point because you know,
Delsia Rodriguez, the vice president, is i mean nominally in
charge of what Marco Rubio and others have called a
transition period so there can be another round of elections.
But she has blood on her hands. The Minister of

(05:24):
Security Cabillo, the head of the military, the Defense minister.
These are just gangster criminals, and the trick is how
do you persuade them to leave power. Can you entice
them to do so if they're allowed to keep their
fortunes and kind of live and not be arrested or
not be you know, said before a firing squad, And

(05:46):
that is a kind of negotiation. But they're not going
to do it voluntarily. And you know, the Venezuelan opposition
has already proven just against enormous odds in twenty twenty
four and also twenty nineteen. You know, they were able
to win elections even though the regime controlled the media.

(06:07):
The regime had these kind of you know, state funded
militias that are like motorcycle gangs that could beat up
supporters of anyone who said a bad word about Maduro.
That is a testament to how much Maduro and that regime,
that Shavista regime has driven the country into the ground.
Eight million Venezuelas have Venezuelans have left the country as

(06:30):
a refugee since twenty fourteen. That is an extraordinary number.
It's like more than a quarter of the population. The
once wealthy as a country in South America is now
it's poorest. This country, with vast natural resources, mainly oil
but also rare earth, is in a dilapidated state because
of corruption and because they and they allowed for these

(06:51):
other great powers, namely China but also Rogia to come
in and sort of exploit that wealth, all in the
name of you know, socialist Dante imperialism. For the Venezuelan people,
it was a fraud, and Medua made that very clear.
So how do you persuade the people with the guns
right now that the gig is up? And I don't

(07:15):
know the answer to that. I think that some of
that might be through if Trump can say, hey, what
happened to Medua could happen to you. That's always helpful.
But I think he's made a strategic error in downplaying
at first the popularity and the democratic, frankly legitimacy of

(07:36):
Maria Jada and her opposition block. They won in twenty
twenty four. They probably won two thirds of the vote.
We Biden administration recognized that. Most European governments, most South
American governments have recognized that. So why would he say

(07:56):
they don't have legitimacy. I think that the better move
would have been to sort of say, we believe that
they won that election, but we want to go to
another election and we're in a period of transition now,
and you have to negotiate with the rightful political leaders
of Venezuela, you know, and we would like to see
a nice story for you, so you don't. You can
retire and like live out the rest of your days,

(08:17):
but you know it can go a hard way for
you too, do you think now? The argument against that
is that they want to avoid a kind of Iraq
style sovil war. The US doesn't want to be mired
in a peacekeeping process or a peacekeeping mission. I understand that,
but at the same time, I would like to see
more details. What's the plan? How are you going to
get the thugs that remain to leave?

Speaker 1 (08:41):
Well, let me, you know, insert this kind of thought.
Back in the days of the Soviet Union, there were
still enough true believers, right, they were ideological true believers,
through through being brought up that way or whatever. Is
Darcy Hernandez a true believer when it comes to socialism
or is she more pragmatic? Because after reading about her

(09:01):
for the last twenty four hours pretty much NonStop, she's
worked in the oil industry, she kept it limping along,
and from a lot of different respects, it seems to
have been as successful as a bad situation could be.
Kind of thing like she's the best of the worst.
Is she pragmatic or is she dogmatic? And if she's pragmatic,
then to your point, I think you do see a

(09:21):
way to make those offers and say, look, we'd love
to offer you right off into the sunset and remain
you know, wealthy and unimprisoned. And I think what Trump
just did by going in with a military strike to
pull Maduro out, I think that's kind of sobering, you know,
I mean, wouldn't it, wouldn't you be sobered by all?

Speaker 2 (09:41):
I don't think that Delsaurodriguez as pragmatic as we would
understand it. And I would also say on the Soviet Union,
by the end of it, most people who had to
live under that slave state saw saw through it. In fact,
we I would say, after the horrors of Stalin even
I mean, there's a famous episode in Soviet history where

(10:01):
Nikita Krushev had to deliver what was called a secret
speech because he would never dare say this in public
because of the cult of personality around Stalin. But he
said to kind of the presidium of the various commissars
that ran the Soviet Union, that Stalin made a lot
of terrible mistakes and was a cruel and despotic leader,
and it was kind of a little minor victory for

(10:22):
the US and the Cold War because we got ahold
of that speech. But back to Deelsea Rodriguez, you know,
her father was a committed socialist revolutionary, so she's raised
in that kind of family she has and I mean
real blood on her hands. That we're going to learn
more about this, I think in the coming weeks and months,
But you know, there are torture centers all over Venezuela

(10:43):
and she is mainly responsible for a lot of that
in her positions, so I am very doubtful. And then
you just looked at what her immediate statements were after
Maduro was extradited. You know, she gave a speech saying,
and you know, the Yankee imperial was stolen our president,
and you know, we will resist and all this other stuff.

(11:05):
And maybe she's saying something else to Marco Rubio and
President Trump behind the scenes. It's quite possible. Politicians do
that all the time. But I'm not seeing much evidence
that she is willing to compromise at this point.

Speaker 1 (11:19):
I agree with you wholeheartedly that I would like to
see a free and fair election, you know, a real
free and fair election to let Venezuela self determine. But
I also do see the point where you don't want
to let a vacuum exist in an area where cartels
still have so much power, and you risk allowing the
military to step in for a full military coup and

(11:39):
just take over because those guys are not good guys.
I want to ask you one more thing before we run.

Speaker 2 (11:44):
I'll go, ah, I'm muted in my kind of critique
at this point because I think there's a lot we
don't know, and we know the CIA is active right now,
so that's kind of what they do. We know that
Banacon has certain capabilities. My hope is that the regular
military is in contact right now with thee Isuelan opposition
and the US government, and you know, they're the ones
who have the most guns, and if they can sort

(12:05):
of say, all right, we had like a future in
this country, and maybe the top leadership has to go,
but the institution can stay, and that institution is going
to work with now a legitimate, democratically elected government that
will try to rescue Venezuela from this, you know, more
than twenty year nightmare.

Speaker 1 (12:24):
I want to talk for a second about Secretary of
State Marco Rubio, because you wrote a great column about
Marco Rubio going from little Marco on the debate stage
to really being the face of what we're doing right
now in South and Central America. He has been to
South and Central America multiple times. But I found it
odd at the beginning of the year when Scott Bessant

(12:46):
was going over and negotiating things and there were snide
comments made like that he was the real Secretary of State.
What has changed in your mind that has taken Marco
Rubio from sitting back on the couch to being a
friend forward facing part of what's happening right now.

Speaker 2 (13:04):
Well, you know my reporting on it is that, you know,
he's a couple's of combination of a couple of things.
First of all, he's the no drama guy in the cabinet,
so he doesn't embarrass the White House the way that
hag Seth did you know, with during what was known
as Signal Gate or Mike Walls and things like that.

(13:25):
He has not had any of those kinds of things.
He still has a very good relationship with Congress, even
though Congress, you know, for a lot of reasons, is
less important than it's ever been, it seems, in our history.
But also, you know, Rubio I think obviously once at
some point in his life to be president. Most people
who rise to become a US senator do. Almost every
senator wants things they could be president. But he also

(13:48):
realized that he couldn't defeat Jade Vance in a primary
in twenty twenty eight, So he shrewdly understood that instead
of trying to undermine a potential political rival down the road,
he befriended him, and he became very close friends with Vance.
Even though Vance and Rubio I think may have a
more ideologically in common because of Rubio himself has evolved,

(14:10):
but Rubio I think on foreign policy is in a
very different place than Jade Vance's. But nonetheless, Rubio sort
of understood that it was to his advantage not to
enter into that kind of contest that he would lose
because he didn't have the kind of job where he
could build a political operation. The vice president doesn't have
to do anything really except for have a pulse, and

(14:30):
you know, like Vance had had somewhat juiced because Turning
Point USA, which is so important to electing Trump in
twenty twenty four, was going to get behind Rubio. You know,
Charlie Kirk was very close before he was murdered with Vance.
And then we saw in the last Turning Point USA

(14:52):
meeting in December, Erica Kirk, his widow, was saying, we're
going to help get Jadevance in the White House in
twenty twenty eight. Okay, So Rubio knew all that, and
he didn't. You know, he was able to sort of
put his ego on check and Sarah and I'm going
to befriend this guy, and it's I'm going to get
more out of it that way. That was very sharp
because that way he didn't he sort of neutralized potential

(15:15):
enemies from within the MAGA coalition. And finally, I would
say some of it is just events. You know, before
Trump came in for the second term, there was still
a very much of a kind of view for most Americans,
let alone the MAGA coalition that helped elect him, that
you know, we don't want to do something like a

(15:35):
rock again. Overseas. Military interventions, you know, don't turn out
right for us, and we got to focus on our
problems at home. I think when Trump the success that
Trump had in June with Operation Midnight Hammer, where he
took out the main Iranian nuclear facilities after Israel really
softened the ground, taking out the air defense systems and
so forth, and watching Israel's success with a lot of

(15:58):
American weaponry, I think kind of proved not just to Trump,
but to lots of people that wait a second America
and the military can sometimes be very successful and it
need not lead to a kind of endless war where
we're trying to do nation building and peacekeeping, all the
things that most Americans don't want to see us repeat
that we associate with Iraq and Afghanistan. And in that respect,

(16:22):
I think that you know, Trump was more open to
very aggressive ideas that Rubio has always kind of had.
He's evolved on a number of things, particularly like free
market capitalism, but Rubio has had his true north star
because he is a son of Cuban immigrants, that he
would like to remove the communist, socialist tyrannies of Latin America.

(16:45):
He has always been, i think, you know, the most
one of the most strongest opponents of the Medora regime
and the Cuban communist regime, and he was able to
kind of win the day because, you know, Trump looks
around and says, you know what, but operations like this,
you know, there is an alternative between doing nothing and
launching in a rock style war, and I think Rubio

(17:08):
was sort of the man of the moment in that regard.

Speaker 1 (17:09):
Eli Lake, thank you so much for making time today
super fascinating conversation, much like you're writing thank you for
having Yeah, much like you're writing at the Free Press
THEFP dot com. Everyone should subscribe as I do. I
hope we talk again in the future, like

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