Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Dave, Happy New Year, Happy New Year, Mandy, welcome back
is as well. You had got some time off and
so did I.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
So it's nice, you know, and I loved every bit
of every single bit of it. It was wonderful. But
I came back from Ohio where it was also quite nice.
It was the weather was not bad there until like
the last we Okay, Dave, this was kind of cool.
Speaker 1 (00:20):
Can I just have like a.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Weather like a nerdy weather moment with you for a moment.
So we're driving back from northeast or northwest Ohio, right,
So we get in the car and it's like nine
o'clock in the morning and it's like sixty degrees. So
between where we ended up stopping on the west side
of Kansas City, No, we went beyond that. We went
(00:42):
to Manhattan, Kansas. So we drove to Manhattan, Kansas. We
drove to a cold front, so we stopped to eat.
We go in the restaurant, it's like sixty five degrees.
We come out of the restaurant, it's like thirty five degrees.
I love that kind of stuff.
Speaker 3 (00:59):
Yeah, that's fantastic. You know, we see those.
Speaker 1 (01:02):
Temperature swings that drops here as well. But in the Midwest.
Sometimes that can be an ugly transition there because it
can be in ice and snow, especially if you're on
the roads traveling. That's never fun. I had to drive
one time. We've had the same thing. We left here
and everything was fine. We were chasing the back end
of a blizzard and I tried to time it out
(01:23):
as we were heading from here through Des Moines and
towards Milwaukee, and I tried to time it out that
we would stay on the back edge of the blizzard.
I got a little too aggressive in the driving and.
Speaker 3 (01:32):
Got into the back edge of it, and boy, what
the difference it makes.
Speaker 1 (01:35):
It was so bad.
Speaker 3 (01:36):
I had to stop for gas.
Speaker 1 (01:38):
It was so cold, so windy, snow was sideways. My
debit card got stuck in.
Speaker 3 (01:44):
The gas because it was frozen.
Speaker 1 (01:47):
I had to get the guy to shut the pump
off of my damn card back out. So I love that.
Speaker 2 (01:53):
My first weather experience like that was I was laying
over in Minneapolis, Minnesota, as a matter of fact, and
we walked to the restaurant from the hotel. It was
like a two mile walk, No big deal, right, you know.
We walked down there, we eat, we come out it
was seventy degrees. I had on shorts, it was snowing.
So in the two and a half hours we were
in there, like it's just it was crazy. But anyway,
(02:13):
I do have questions about our actual weather tomorrow. So
what are we really looking at. Let's start with the
stalk show first of all, goes off at noon. Are
they going to be able to get that done before
they have to deal with foul weather?
Speaker 1 (02:25):
You're talking the parade down. Yeah, yes, I do think
they'll get it off. They have dealt with weather in
the past when it deals with cold and snow.
Speaker 3 (02:34):
Right now, there's a lot.
Speaker 1 (02:36):
Of questions that still need to be answered, generally at
this time frame. You know, we're within the twelve to
eighteen hours of this event starting. We'd like more details finalized,
but we're still working out some final details. Here's the
bottom line. It's going to snow, and it's going to
turn colder. It's going to drop tomorrow into the upper
thirties and then slowly drop the low freezing late tomorrow afternoon. Thursdays,
(03:00):
Friday's high will only be around thirty three thirty four.
Overnight lows will be in the teams in twenties, so
we've got the cold component, we've got enough moist that
we will get snow. Always in these situations, the questions
becomes the how much, and it's the how much that
we're still struggling with a little bit as computer models
range widely, and it has to do with the windflow
(03:20):
that you and I talk about all the time. For
the stock show parade, I do think there could be
some light snowshowers around. My forecast right now, just finalizing
it is. I do think we'll have some light snow
in the morning, and then there could be a low
for many hours in the afternoon before things kick back
in around four o'clock. So with the stock show parade,
I think it could be cold and there could be
some flurries of light snowshowers, but I don't think they're
(03:42):
going to be in the brunt of the snow.
Speaker 3 (03:43):
I think that happens after four.
Speaker 1 (03:46):
O'clock tomorrow afternoon and then continues till about two to
four in the morning, so about a twelve hour e bend.
And it's that duration if we can sustain the right
wind direction that will give us our snow totals, which
we think right now may you're about one to four
typical upslope one as you go up towards Fort Collins,
two swards Lovelands, threes and fourth that you come into Denver.
(04:08):
And then the heaviest totals will be south and west
of I seventy, where we see those favored numbers get
a little deeper.
Speaker 2 (04:15):
So basically, this texter said, Mandy Weather, I'm traveling by
car west on I seventy from Denver Friday. And now
Dan and I kids just updated, so they basically they're asking,
so Friday, you should have what snow on the roads.
Speaker 3 (04:30):
But no snow to deal with exactly.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
Yeah, it's just going to depend. This storm should lift
out very early Friday morning, leaving us with little snow
to deal with after about eight to ten. And that
includes the mountains. But it will come down to what
do the roads look like? What does it look like
getting up Floyd Hill and into the mountains. Are there
any pass considerations veil pass and stuff like that. So
if you're driving from Denver and heading west, I would say.
Speaker 3 (04:56):
You're you're okay, but just be prepared.
Speaker 1 (04:58):
For any you know, road condition that may have deteriorated
the night before.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
Let's talk about the bigger weather picture over the next
six weeks. I know, you guys always look out. It's
it's very imprecise science at this point. But we've had
such a dry fall, we're well below snowpack. Are we
looking to make Is there anything on the you know,
on the horizon that is going to change that for us?
Speaker 3 (05:21):
So you know that that has been a concern.
Speaker 1 (05:24):
You know. It's interesting the calendar year twenty twenty five
actually ended up right where it should be for moisture.
And what that tells me is it.
Speaker 3 (05:35):
Was short for snow for the early snow months that we've.
Speaker 1 (05:38):
Had, so September, October, November, December, December, Mandy actually came
out right on track. And what people may forget is
that on the third of December we had a four
point three snow in snowstorm, and then on the twenty
eighth we had another two point three for six point
sixth total, which is the average for the month of December.
Speaker 3 (05:56):
So December actually ended up okay, and for the entire.
Speaker 1 (05:59):
Year we ended up right where we should be for moisture.
What that tells me is that while we were lacking
in snow, we made up for the moisture in the
calendar year because of a wet spring and periodic rains
over the summer. And if you'll remember our conversations going
back to September, and you know, everything's still being green
and the fall was looking in October, and should we
(06:20):
blow the sprinklers out because it's dry and everything still
looks lush. That had to do with all that early
season moisture that kept us looking pretty good. Where we
are lacking is snow. The snowpack is only at about
sixty percent fots. And I always like to listen, we
still got all of January, all of February and marching
April our snow is month. And so for the snowpack
(06:42):
and our snow concerns, we load now. We want to
load as much snow as we can up through about
April seventh, and then after that we start to melt
the snow, and that's our water supply and reservoirs, so
we've got time to make up.
Speaker 3 (06:54):
For the shortfalls.
Speaker 1 (06:55):
I wouldn't give up on the season this year, this early.
I'm going to say this.
Speaker 2 (06:59):
The ski resorts have been having a terrible time because
there's the lack of snow. Are they going to get
a good guy. Are they going to get a soaking here.
Speaker 1 (07:07):
With this storm? Yes, yeah, this will be good. The
last one they got there was if you were following
any of the resorts like Loveland and Aspmen, Snowmass and
all those guys, they were rejoicing in the last snow.
They got really deep fresh powder of eight to ten
inches some places. We're twelve thirteen. They'll get similar totals here.
We're looking at a good eight to twelve inches in
the mountain, So great for them. Should help with the snowpack.
Speaker 3 (07:30):
Overall, this is a.
Speaker 1 (07:31):
Good storm moisture equivalent. I will tell you this that
the month of January, our total moisture is around four
tenths of an inch. This storm coming in has the
ability to deliver about a quarter of an inch, maybe
a little more, and that obviously equates to two to
four to two to five to maybe two to six
inches on the south side of town that would be here.
Speaker 3 (07:52):
You know, we're what eight days into the.
Speaker 1 (07:53):
Month, nine days into the month, almost a whole month's moisture.
So again, you know, you look at the bigger picture,
you think December was the second Warmistan record. It's long, long,
stretches of dry and warm and windy conditions, but then
you sprinkle in these decent snowstorms and when you average
(08:13):
it out at the end of the month, it actually
doesn't look that bad on paper.
Speaker 3 (08:17):
It's just that we go through these long stretches. And
by the way, this is exactly where we were last year.
Speaker 1 (08:22):
This is a classic Laminia pattern where we get these long, dry,
windy stretches, fire concerns get elevated, and then all of
a sudden, banged, you get hit with a storm. Those
concerns go away for several days, and then you get
back into that pattern. And I do think that's what
we'll see following this event. Thursday Fridays, we go back
to warm and dry.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
From your lips for God's ears. Dave Frasier Fox thirty
one is chief Meteorologist's good to talk to you, my friend,
and I'm looking forward to another exciting year of weather Wednesday.
Speaker 1 (08:49):
And so am I and a Rod get better and
everybody else stay healthy because that cred.
Speaker 3 (08:53):
Going around too, and it is not fun.
Speaker 2 (08:56):
You know, it is not. You need to. I could
have given you my witchcraft tips that I got from
natural grocers. It worked, man, It works. So all right man,
I'll talk to you next week. That Stave Frasier. We'll
be right back
Dave, Happy New Year, Happy New Year, Mandy, welcome back
is as well. You had got some time off and
so did I.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
So it's nice, you know, and I loved every bit
of every single bit of it. It was wonderful. But
I came back from Ohio where it was also quite nice.
It was the weather was not bad there until like
the last we Okay, Dave, this was kind of cool.
Speaker 1 (00:20):
Can I just have like a.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Weather like a nerdy weather moment with you for a moment.
So we're driving back from northeast or northwest Ohio, right,
So we get in the car and it's like nine
o'clock in the morning and it's like sixty degrees. So
between where we ended up stopping on the west side
of Kansas City, No, we went beyond that. We went
(00:42):
to Manhattan, Kansas. So we drove to Manhattan, Kansas. We
drove to a cold front, so we stopped to eat.
We go in the restaurant, it's like sixty five degrees.
We come out of the restaurant, it's like thirty five degrees.
I love that kind of stuff.
Speaker 3 (00:59):
Yeah, that's fantastic. You know, we see those.
Speaker 1 (01:02):
Temperature swings that drops here as well. But in the Midwest.
Sometimes that can be an ugly transition there because it
can be in ice and snow, especially if you're on
the roads traveling. That's never fun. I had to drive
one time. We've had the same thing. We left here
and everything was fine. We were chasing the back end
of a blizzard and I tried to time it out
(01:23):
as we were heading from here through Des Moines and
towards Milwaukee, and I tried to time it out that
we would stay on the back edge of the blizzard.
I got a little too aggressive in the driving and.
Speaker 3 (01:32):
Got into the back edge of it, and boy, what
the difference it makes.
Speaker 1 (01:35):
It was so bad.
Speaker 3 (01:36):
I had to stop for gas.
Speaker 1 (01:38):
It was so cold, so windy, snow was sideways. My
debit card got stuck in.
Speaker 3 (01:44):
The gas because it was frozen.
Speaker 1 (01:47):
I had to get the guy to shut the pump
off of my damn card back out. So I love that.
Speaker 2 (01:53):
My first weather experience like that was I was laying
over in Minneapolis, Minnesota, as a matter of fact, and
we walked to the restaurant from the hotel. It was
like a two mile walk, No big deal, right, you know.
We walked down there, we eat, we come out it
was seventy degrees. I had on shorts, it was snowing.
So in the two and a half hours we were
in there, like it's just it was crazy. But anyway,
(02:13):
I do have questions about our actual weather tomorrow. So
what are we really looking at. Let's start with the
stalk show first of all, goes off at noon. Are
they going to be able to get that done before
they have to deal with foul weather?
Speaker 1 (02:25):
You're talking the parade down. Yeah, yes, I do think
they'll get it off. They have dealt with weather in
the past when it deals with cold and snow.
Speaker 3 (02:34):
Right now, there's a lot.
Speaker 1 (02:36):
Of questions that still need to be answered, generally at
this time frame. You know, we're within the twelve to
eighteen hours of this event starting. We'd like more details finalized,
but we're still working out some final details. Here's the
bottom line. It's going to snow, and it's going to
turn colder. It's going to drop tomorrow into the upper
thirties and then slowly drop the low freezing late tomorrow afternoon. Thursdays,
(03:00):
Friday's high will only be around thirty three thirty four.
Overnight lows will be in the teams in twenties, so
we've got the cold component, we've got enough moist that
we will get snow. Always in these situations, the questions
becomes the how much, and it's the how much that
we're still struggling with a little bit as computer models
range widely, and it has to do with the windflow
(03:20):
that you and I talk about all the time. For
the stock show parade, I do think there could be
some light snowshowers around. My forecast right now, just finalizing
it is. I do think we'll have some light snow
in the morning, and then there could be a low
for many hours in the afternoon before things kick back
in around four o'clock. So with the stock show parade,
I think it could be cold and there could be
some flurries of light snowshowers, but I don't think they're
(03:42):
going to be in the brunt of the snow.
Speaker 3 (03:43):
I think that happens after four.
Speaker 1 (03:46):
O'clock tomorrow afternoon and then continues till about two to
four in the morning, so about a twelve hour e bend.
And it's that duration if we can sustain the right
wind direction that will give us our snow totals, which
we think right now may you're about one to four
typical upslope one as you go up towards Fort Collins,
two swards Lovelands, threes and fourth that you come into Denver.
(04:08):
And then the heaviest totals will be south and west
of I seventy, where we see those favored numbers get
a little deeper.
Speaker 2 (04:15):
So basically, this texter said, Mandy Weather, I'm traveling by
car west on I seventy from Denver Friday. And now
Dan and I kids just updated, so they basically they're asking,
so Friday, you should have what snow on the roads.
Speaker 3 (04:30):
But no snow to deal with exactly.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
Yeah, it's just going to depend. This storm should lift
out very early Friday morning, leaving us with little snow
to deal with after about eight to ten. And that
includes the mountains. But it will come down to what
do the roads look like? What does it look like
getting up Floyd Hill and into the mountains. Are there
any pass considerations veil pass and stuff like that. So
if you're driving from Denver and heading west, I would say.
Speaker 3 (04:56):
You're you're okay, but just be prepared.
Speaker 1 (04:58):
For any you know, road condition that may have deteriorated
the night before.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
Let's talk about the bigger weather picture over the next
six weeks. I know, you guys always look out. It's
it's very imprecise science at this point. But we've had
such a dry fall, we're well below snowpack. Are we
looking to make Is there anything on the you know,
on the horizon that is going to change that for us?
Speaker 3 (05:21):
So you know that that has been a concern.
Speaker 1 (05:24):
You know. It's interesting the calendar year twenty twenty five
actually ended up right where it should be for moisture.
And what that tells me is it.
Speaker 3 (05:35):
Was short for snow for the early snow months that we've.
Speaker 1 (05:38):
Had, so September, October, November, December, December, Mandy actually came
out right on track. And what people may forget is
that on the third of December we had a four
point three snow in snowstorm, and then on the twenty
eighth we had another two point three for six point
sixth total, which is the average for the month of December.
Speaker 3 (05:56):
So December actually ended up okay, and for the entire.
Speaker 1 (05:59):
Year we ended up right where we should be for moisture.
What that tells me is that while we were lacking
in snow, we made up for the moisture in the
calendar year because of a wet spring and periodic rains
over the summer. And if you'll remember our conversations going
back to September, and you know, everything's still being green
and the fall was looking in October, and should we
(06:20):
blow the sprinklers out because it's dry and everything still
looks lush. That had to do with all that early
season moisture that kept us looking pretty good. Where we
are lacking is snow. The snowpack is only at about
sixty percent fots. And I always like to listen, we
still got all of January, all of February and marching
April our snow is month. And so for the snowpack
(06:42):
and our snow concerns, we load now. We want to
load as much snow as we can up through about
April seventh, and then after that we start to melt
the snow, and that's our water supply and reservoirs, so
we've got time to make up.
Speaker 3 (06:54):
For the shortfalls.
Speaker 1 (06:55):
I wouldn't give up on the season this year, this early.
I'm going to say this.
Speaker 2 (06:59):
The ski resorts have been having a terrible time because
there's the lack of snow. Are they going to get
a good guy. Are they going to get a soaking here.
Speaker 1 (07:07):
With this storm? Yes, yeah, this will be good. The
last one they got there was if you were following
any of the resorts like Loveland and Aspmen, Snowmass and
all those guys, they were rejoicing in the last snow.
They got really deep fresh powder of eight to ten
inches some places. We're twelve thirteen. They'll get similar totals here.
We're looking at a good eight to twelve inches in
the mountain, So great for them. Should help with the snowpack.
Speaker 3 (07:30):
Overall, this is a.
Speaker 1 (07:31):
Good storm moisture equivalent. I will tell you this that
the month of January, our total moisture is around four
tenths of an inch. This storm coming in has the
ability to deliver about a quarter of an inch, maybe
a little more, and that obviously equates to two to
four to two to five to maybe two to six
inches on the south side of town that would be here.
Speaker 3 (07:52):
You know, we're what eight days into the.
Speaker 1 (07:53):
Month, nine days into the month, almost a whole month's moisture.
So again, you know, you look at the bigger picture,
you think December was the second Warmistan record. It's long, long,
stretches of dry and warm and windy conditions, but then
you sprinkle in these decent snowstorms and when you average
(08:13):
it out at the end of the month, it actually
doesn't look that bad on paper.
Speaker 3 (08:17):
It's just that we go through these long stretches. And
by the way, this is exactly where we were last year.
Speaker 1 (08:22):
This is a classic Laminia pattern where we get these long, dry,
windy stretches, fire concerns get elevated, and then all of
a sudden, banged, you get hit with a storm. Those
concerns go away for several days, and then you get
back into that pattern. And I do think that's what
we'll see following this event. Thursday Fridays, we go back
to warm and dry.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
From your lips for God's ears. Dave Frasier Fox thirty
one is chief Meteorologist's good to talk to you, my friend,
and I'm looking forward to another exciting year of weather Wednesday.
Speaker 1 (08:49):
And so am I and a Rod get better and
everybody else stay healthy because that cred.
Speaker 3 (08:53):
Going around too, and it is not fun.
Speaker 2 (08:56):
You know, it is not. You need to. I could
have given you my witchcraft tips that I got from
natural grocers. It worked, man, It works. So all right man,
I'll talk to you next week. That Stave Frasier. We'll
be right back
The Mandy Connell Podcast News
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