01-15-25 FULL SHOW - A Polar Vortex Is Coming, Plus the Real Estate Market Is Odd

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Mandy Connell Show is sponsored by Belle and Pollock
Accident and injury Lawyers.

Speaker 2 (00:05):
No, it's Mandy connelly Ton on KOAM ninety one FM.

Speaker 3 (00:15):
SA got.

Speaker 4 (00:17):
Sadi the nicety through Gray Bendy Connal, keeping your sad babe.

Speaker 5 (00:26):
Welcome, ve, Welcome to a Wednesday edition of the show.
I'm your host for the next three hours. Mandy Connall.
Sorry about that. When I y able to say welcome, Welcome, welcome,
something went wrong. Fix Now though I'm here Mandy Connell.
That guy over there is Anthony Rodriguez. We call him
a rod And before we get into the blog, which

(00:48):
we will do momentarily, I have to talk about the
ceasefire agreement that has been agreed upon by Israel and Hamas.
It will release the Israeli hostages in stages, and the
first group of hostages will be women and children who
have been away from their parents for over a year,

(01:09):
and the next group will be men over fifty. And
wait a minute, let me think if I did this
phase one, Phase two, We've got women and children then
and people over fifty and then at the idea of
soldiers and then the dead bodies of the hostages that
are remaining now in exchange, a crap ton of Palestinian

(01:30):
prisoners are going to be released, and Israel will withdraw
from the Gaza Strip and people will be allowed to
return home.

Speaker 2 (01:39):
Now.

Speaker 5 (01:40):
Much like Charlie Brown was skeptical when Lucy held the football,
I am skeptical that the ceasefire will not be broken
by Hamas.

Speaker 2 (01:48):
Now.

Speaker 5 (01:48):
I know that sounds crazy, because why would they write.
They just have gotten their asses summarily handed to them
on a platter, as they say, And yet I still
have confidence that their bad judgment will continue. So I
am cautiously optimistic. But you know, the proofs in the pudding,
as they say, So when I get too excited about that,

(02:11):
just yet, we'll see what happens. I hate to be skeptical,
but you know how many times do you have to
live through the football being pulled out from under you
before you go you know what, I'm gonna look at
this with a more skeptical eye. I hope for the
people of Israel. I hope for my nephew and his family.
I hope for the people of the Gaza Strip, the
Palestinians who did the wrong thing by trusting Amas, but

(02:38):
have suffered beyond all measure. Now, what's interesting about this
the timing of this, And this is going to sound
so cynical, and even as I say it, I realize
how cynical it sounds, But they're with me. Had this
ceasefire been agreed upon on a normal day, I would
fully expect to see a line of Hollywood celebrities showing

(02:59):
up to do relief for Gaza or some such thing.
But now all of that relief action is being directed
at the peakle in California. So let's do this. Let's
I've got some stuff about that on the blog today,
So let's jump in. Find the blog by going to
mandy'sblog dot com. That's mandy'sblog dot com. Look for the
headline that says one fifteen to twenty four blog a

(03:21):
polar vortex is coming. Plus the real estate market is odd.
Click on that and here are the headlines you will
find within anywhere.

Speaker 6 (03:30):
To listen in Office half of American all with ships
and clipments of seen.

Speaker 5 (03:32):
That's a press plant today on the blog the vortex
is coming, the real estate market is unusual? Right now,
why red note is accidentally building bridges? I meant to
talk about this yesterday. I owe an apology to Senator
Bennett's people. Westward must have a perception problem. Tiny own
communities are not working. This is why I don't use

(03:55):
ridhair when I'm by myself. Mayor Johnston got this right.
Republicans are trying to save us money. Aurora is working
to bring that camera speed enforcement. Arafo County needs point
in time volunteers. Pete Hegsath held his own yesterday. Can
we stop with this nonsense? Nancy Mace CBS News actually listened.
Could have fed end up hiking rates this year. What

(04:18):
will the califires mean for the mortgage holders? Here comes
the big concert to help Cali residents. Biden says people
should pay their fair share in taxes. These fire victims
must feel so loved. Your co workers are not your family.
Denverights love being active. Elon Musk saves the day again.
This is why athletes don't sign autographs. What if on

(04:39):
old wrapped? Thank goodness, we're almost done with this. Those
are the headlines on the blog at mandy'sblog dot com.
And you can see we got a law tech to
Thank you, Nancenter, Thank you, thank you Nancy for that.
It is a tic tac toe a winner. That was
her comments on TikTok See what she was doing there,

(05:01):
tick tack toe. If she said tick talk toe, it
would have made more sense. But whatever you do, you, Nancy,
you do you Today on the show, we've got weather
Wednesday coming up at twelve thirty. I don't know if
you guys have noticed this, but it is going to
be colder than a whale digger's butt next week. Oh
what a well digger's butt. You never heard that? Well, diggers,

(05:24):
but usually you know it's colder than a whale digger's butt.
You never heard that? No, humm, mother in law's kiss,
how about that?

Speaker 7 (05:33):
No, no, nope, keep trying. Let's see what we can
get through.

Speaker 5 (05:37):
I'll start thinking of more Southern aphromisms for for how
cold it is? You know, did you realize it's actually
cold as hale, not cold as hell?

Speaker 7 (05:48):
I did hear that.

Speaker 8 (05:48):
I'm still going to say hell, well, we all did,
even though it makes literally no sense.

Speaker 5 (05:52):
Well, but when you're in the South, hell and hale
sound the same cold as.

Speaker 7 (05:56):
Hale because hell is apparently not cold, but cold is.

Speaker 5 (06:00):
Hail is how it sounds in the South, and it's
so it sounds accurate, but it's not because they're saying
cold as hell, but they're talking about it was like
sixty five. It's cold as helle outside colder and the
witch figures, you know what. Anyway, we're gonna have a
chance to talk to Dave Frasier from Box thirty one,
they're chief meteorologist, about what we can expect and why

(06:20):
it's happening now. Although Facebook memory just popped up from
a few years ago. We had another spell at exactly
the same time a few years ago, so this just
might be what they call weather. We'll talk to Dave
about it at twelve thirty. You can also get your
weather questions ready for that. The real estate market is
in a little bit of a weird place right now,

(06:40):
and I invited Ed Praser to come on. He's got
some data about what's happening. And here's the thing, you guys,
even if you're not looking to sell your house or
you're not looking to buy a house, you should want
to know what the real estate market is doing because
this year coming up, the uncertainty of this year coming
up is really creating havoc for people who want to

(07:02):
buy a home. But I am going to give you
some bad news, but if you take it to heart,
it could be extremely liberating. Guys, these are gonna be
the interest rates for this year. They're not going to
go back down to four percent or five percent, maybe
five seven five are. I just don't think they're gonna

(07:22):
go much lower than where they are now because mortgage
rates are attached to treasury bonds, which are a direct
reflection of government spending. And until we do something significant
about that, until we turn the corner on racking up
an obscene amount of debt, and Joe Biden, you likes
to talk about biggest cuts and no, he's leaving one

(07:45):
point six trillion dollar deficits behind when he lead one
point seven trillion dollar deficits. Sorry forgot about an extra
one hundred billion, I mean a billionare billion there? Now
you're talking real money, right, I mean, So we're gonna
talk to ed about where the market is right now.
And if you want to know what your home values
are doing, then you're going to want to pay attention
because our periods of just exorbitant year over year growth

(08:10):
are also over. I would even be so bold as
to speculate that we may see some softening in the pricing.
Maybe people will start to drop their pricing a little bit.
I don't know. I don't know. But if you've got
to sell your house, you got to sell your house, right,

(08:30):
So we're going to talk to Ed at one o'clock
about that. Have you learned about Red Note a rod
where people tiktokuses are breaking out about TikTok They're now
downloading the other Chinese social media app, red Note, and
red Note is designed for Chinese people.

Speaker 8 (08:48):
This is mine and many other's message to the US government.
Can you politely describe what I'm doing without actually telling.

Speaker 5 (08:57):
The federal government that they are number one with both?
But he's using the longest finger on his hand to
really make it an exclamation point.

Speaker 7 (09:05):
Yeah, that's what Red Note is. Well, here's my one.

Speaker 5 (09:09):
This is I have a prediction because I've got a
guy coming on today River page. He writes for the
Free Press, which you guys know I'm obsessed with and
I'm a complete fangirl. He wrote an article he joined
Red Note to see what was going on, and what's
happening is Chinese citizens are talking to Americans. This will
not be allowed to stand by the Chinese government. They

(09:30):
will either ban it in China and only make it
a US app, or they will they won't pull it
off the US model. Their their their, their market share
is bigger.

Speaker 7 (09:38):
Hey Andy, Yeah, ask me what we'll do when that happens.

Speaker 5 (09:42):
I don't know.

Speaker 7 (09:43):
Go to the next one, I know, and the one
after that, because this is ridiculous.

Speaker 5 (09:49):
I'm looking for the next hit this. I can't tell
you give all your life information to the Chinese government
so they can use it against me in the future.

Speaker 7 (09:57):
I can't tell you how fun it is to watch
people make these videos.

Speaker 9 (10:02):
Now.

Speaker 8 (10:02):
I'm not on a red note yet, I won't be
until I have to be. But watching people just describe
their experience and what this kind of means in terms
of they're kind of their their silent protest, It's well,
it's not silent. It's hilarious to me, and also it's
kind of work. It's I think it's gonna work.

Speaker 5 (10:22):
We'll see. I'm China will not let it stand that
the Chinese people can openly communicate with Americans. It will
not happen because they cannot allow the Chinese people to
understand what freedom is.

Speaker 8 (10:33):
They can't rud No, it won't matter because mister beast,
Elon Musk and mister Wonderful will help save the day.
So well, I hope those are the latest names. I
hope so to potentially buy TikTok.

Speaker 5 (10:43):
Well, TikTok's not for sale. My dance have been very clear. Oh,
they're not going to sell it. Well, they're not gonna
be funny talks. No, they're not going to sell it
because they January nineteenth. They're using those algorithms all over
the world, so the United States market is not the
biggest market they have.

Speaker 7 (10:57):
Kevin Hilary said, doesn't want the algorithm.

Speaker 5 (11:00):
The algorithm is what makes it work.

Speaker 7 (11:01):
I agree, but I don't think Americans will care if
TikTok remain.

Speaker 5 (11:04):
I'm going to buy that car, but I don't need
an engine. That's stupid for Kevin O'Leary's say.

Speaker 7 (11:09):
Well, I wouldn't call Kevin o'liary stupid thing.

Speaker 8 (11:14):
Don't think he would be stupid to I don't think
he would buy TikTok without having a plan. Yeah, and
even without the algorithm, I think Americans would still find
a way to make use of TikTok. They would make
their own algorithm. It wouldn't be as good. I'm not
arguing that it would be. That's what makes TikTok great.
But after January nineteenth, it won't matter because TikTok is
going to say he called our bluff.

Speaker 7 (11:36):
Who wants to buy?

Speaker 5 (11:38):
You want to make that? Ten dollars done? Ten dollars
they pull it. They do not sell it. Twenty bucks nope,
I'll go twenty I'll go twenty bucks.

Speaker 7 (11:47):
Yeah, I'll go twenty bucks.

Speaker 8 (11:48):
How long do we have though, because they I think
there's like a grace period where they obviously need to
think about oh gosh, where.

Speaker 5 (11:53):
Bluff was called? No, this is the bluff. I mean
this is the time period now.

Speaker 8 (11:57):
No, I'm saying the time period after January nineteenth. Where
how long do we have before we say the deadline
has passed? We don't think TikTok is actually going to
sell because they they're going to sell.

Speaker 5 (12:07):
Okay, so twenty bucks they're not going to sell. I'm
not not selling. They're pulling out of the market. That's
that's what. Because here's the problem. If they do it here,
then other free markets countries will require them to do
the same thing, and it becomes a problem that grows exponentially,
whereas if they just pull out of the US market.
Now other governments have been put on notice, we'll just

(12:27):
pull out of your market, and your people won't like that.

Speaker 8 (12:29):
But selling that branch to the UT the amount of
money that they could make, I'm telling.

Speaker 5 (12:33):
You care, I am making way more money money. It's
a billion something people they already have on TikTok.

Speaker 7 (12:38):
And there's billions on the table.

Speaker 5 (12:40):
You know what kills me?

Speaker 7 (12:42):
That's what I think, Kevin.

Speaker 5 (12:43):
One time, one time, they'll make it every year for
the next however many years. The part that gets me
about this is that people who are joining red note yeah,
doing it all. They're not at all curious as to
why TikTok itself is banned in China. They're not even
remotely curious about what they're consuming that the Chinese government

(13:04):
has decided is too dangerous for their own people.

Speaker 8 (13:07):
Yeah yeah, but we'll just keep giving our data to Meta,
to Facebook, to x.

Speaker 6 (13:11):
At least.

Speaker 5 (13:13):
At least their American who.

Speaker 7 (13:15):
Has our data?

Speaker 8 (13:16):
Someone will, but it must let only the US companies
steal your data.

Speaker 7 (13:20):
Well, just the US.

Speaker 5 (13:22):
I would prefer that. I don't want the Russian Would
you be okay? With the Russians having an app that
everybody in the United States used so they could suck
up all your information as well.

Speaker 7 (13:30):
Is it as good as TikTok?

Speaker 6 (13:31):
Yeah?

Speaker 7 (13:33):
Oh god, I don't care.

Speaker 5 (13:34):
We're done for his nation because our data generation, our
data is sad.

Speaker 7 (13:38):
Is just a matter of who andy.

Speaker 5 (13:40):
At least they're American, at least they're not our geopolitical
foe instantly steals our intellectual property, our technology, our patented items,
our copyrighted items to do harm to the United States
of America. Like that's the reality. China is not our friend.

(14:00):
China would love to destroy the United States. That's why
they're teamed up with Russia and Iran to reak havoc
around the world. That's who you're giving your data to.
I mean, it's your choice, but I think it's a
dumb choice.

Speaker 7 (14:11):
So why is the US not currently looking to band
she and or Timu?

Speaker 5 (14:14):
Oh god, I would have done that. That's at least
right now data. Why is it right now?

Speaker 8 (14:20):
And I'm very asking this very smart smart like rhetorically,
because it's not about the data, it's about the content.
I don't think that they like that Americans are communicating
in a way with each other critical of different things
going on in the US government, or they.

Speaker 5 (14:34):
Can't be critical of Chinese government. Stuff TikTok because they're
selling products. If you want to buy crappy, poorly made,
garbage selling products, knock yourself out. TikTok has people selling products.
They are not selling products. When you have a free app,
you are the product that you are the product. They

(14:56):
are gathering up as much data as they can hoo,
bring it up so they can market to you. I
don't know, store some of it away so they can
blackmail you if you become famous later. I don't know.
I have no idea what China's doing, but they are
geopolitical foe and that should matter.

Speaker 8 (15:09):
She and Timo are doing the exact same thing on TikTok.
TikTok has shop I'd buy, I'd buy way more stuff
on it.

Speaker 5 (15:19):
Do you when do you make a payment to TikTok?
When does that happen? When do you pay TikTok for something? Immediately?

Speaker 7 (15:26):
When I buy something, you pay it through TikTok?

Speaker 5 (15:28):
Yes, so they have all your banking information too.

Speaker 7 (15:30):
Uh, it goes to like the Apple pay but whatever, Yeah,
whatever payment method. Yes, God.

Speaker 8 (15:35):
My point is the only difference between those three is
TikTok is content in addition to being a shop.

Speaker 7 (15:40):
This is jess if it was about.

Speaker 5 (15:42):
Hey, Ron, I got to tell you, this is like
the fact that you are so blase about handing over
everything to a country that would destroy us given the opportunity.
I find that profoundly upsetting.

Speaker 7 (15:54):
It's not about that.

Speaker 8 (15:55):
It is to me about the real reason behind why
TikTok is being targeted, and I think that's what a
lot of people are saying.

Speaker 7 (16:01):
Is otherwise team The real.

Speaker 5 (16:02):
Reason TikTok is being targeted is because their algorithm controls
the content that you consume. They control the propaganda that
young people and old people are consuming all across the
United States of America, Propaganda when they won't let when
they will not let criticisms of China appear on TikTok.
If they appear, they disappear relatively quickly. That is propaganda.

(16:25):
When they show kids stupid challenges that end up with
them idiotically killing themselves, why is that not propaganda? Anytime
they're telling you they're fomenting violence because they are putting
people who are on political TikTok on opposite sides of
the issue. People were using TikTok on January sixth. You
have no idea what they're doing, You have no clue,

(16:46):
and to act like it doesn't matter is really not
very smart. I don't think it's a It's not a
smart way to go about life. And I guess maybe
because I grew up during the Cold War, when the
thought of having a Russian app that was capable of
pumping propaganda into the United States would have been appalling.

(17:08):
No one would have downloaded it. They were the enemy.
No one would have done it. That because people are
addicted to being able to sit there on their freaking
phones and scroll through videos for seven hours instead of
doing anything productive. We're going to give everything to our
biggest geo political foe in the world right now. Is interesting?

Speaker 8 (17:25):
Is their argument not national security when it comes to
giving your information, that's the argument right now.

Speaker 5 (17:31):
Ranking information that's on Youky'm.

Speaker 8 (17:33):
About I'm talking about personal information that they have by
you having a TikTok account. Is that not the case
that they are making right now? That they have your information,
they can do what they want with it. Not the content,
not the propaganda. Their main sticking point right now is
your information being in the hands of the Chinese.

Speaker 5 (17:48):
Is that How much information do they have? That's the
seeking point that we don't know because we don't know
what the algorithms do. We don't know how much information
is being gathered up tangentially, meaning not just stuff you're
scrolling on the phone. We don't know if they have
been able to activate your phone to listen to everything
going around you. We don't know you've got your geo
cash services on, they know where everybody is. I mean,

(18:11):
I don't know.

Speaker 7 (18:12):
In my mind, we can have a conversation about the
backbone of.

Speaker 8 (18:15):
TikTok after we stopped getting bs by the US government
as to what this band really is about, because if
it wasn't about what they're talking about with national security
with our information she Mu Mu, she and Timu would
be in this exact same boat and they're not, which
means it tells me is not about national security.

Speaker 5 (18:32):
It's not.

Speaker 10 (18:34):
What are the videos?

Speaker 8 (18:35):
So my point is it's not the videos they're not saying,
it's the content they're talking about. The main sticking point
is having our information national charity.

Speaker 5 (18:42):
You're using okay when you shop on TMU, they take
your banking information, and they yes, right, two forms of information. Yes,
we have no idea what kind of information TikTok has.
I've been told by multiple people that when you travel
to China you should never ever take your cell phone
or your laptop. Buy a crappy cell phone, buy a
crappy life, because as soon as you log in the

(19:02):
first time on any Chinese Wi Fi, you get malware
embedded in your computer and your phone, and they're going
to take all of your data, everything you have. They're
gonna take your search history, they're going to take everything.
We have no way of knowing if they're not doing
that right now with TikTok, and all these people are like, oh,
that's no big deal to me, except they're watching violent
porn and someday when they run one for office, they're

(19:24):
all compromised because they have that insat.

Speaker 3 (19:28):
No.

Speaker 5 (19:29):
What I'm saying is, you don't know what TikTok has
on your phone.

Speaker 4 (19:33):
You have no idea.

Speaker 5 (19:34):
That's what the federal government is saying. We don't know
what they have on you, We don't know what their
capabilities are.

Speaker 7 (19:41):
How is that not the same with Shean and Timu.
I'm not talking about the content.

Speaker 5 (19:45):
You're right now, what you're saying, now, I understand that's
what I'm saying.

Speaker 8 (19:50):
You're absolutely why that's my issue is we're not being
or being bs and it's hypocritical.

Speaker 7 (19:55):
If they are really about what they're saying.

Speaker 8 (19:56):
This case is about other apps should be part of
this as well, because it's just TikTok.

Speaker 7 (20:02):
That tells me it's not really about what they're talking about.
It's about the content.

Speaker 8 (20:05):
They're not happy with what TikTok is about the content
and the stuff inside the content to your point, the
propaganda all that, but that's not what they're saying otherwise.

Speaker 5 (20:12):
San, and you have a point. I still think you're
wrong to be so about TikTok, but you still have
a point. Dave Fraser Fox thirty one coming up next
to talk about the Boulevard text in Weather Wednesday, Fox
thirty one's chief meteorologist, Dave Fraser.

Speaker 11 (20:25):
Hey, Dave, how we doing today? Well?

Speaker 5 (20:28):
I am I have words for you, uh mister, because
last week you did not give me a heads up
that I was going to end up with two feet
of snow in my driveway.

Speaker 7 (20:36):
But there we were.

Speaker 11 (20:37):
Yeah, yeah, that was that. The Southern area is We
were thinking maybe a one to two, a one to three.
And the wind coming up and over these southern areas
was so strong it lifted the air, and anytime you
lift you can generate more snow. And so the totals
came in at around eight inches, especially down on the
south side of town. So yeah, much more than was expected.

Speaker 5 (20:58):
Okay, so we're about to end her into one of
our Oh my gosh, bitterly cold. Your face is going
to freeze when you go outside time periods? When does
that start? Is this the true polar vortex? I keep
saying that, but I don't even know if it really is.

Speaker 11 (21:11):
It is, okay, yeah, so the polar vortex. You know,
there's a nice little cliche where that we like to
toss out every now and then. We call it an
arctic outbreak. So you know, you have the coal there
kind of like a whirlpool spinning around over the poles,
and the jet stream is like a lasso, and as
long as the jet stream is spinning at the right momentum,

(21:31):
it kind of holds all of that cold there at
the poles. But if the jet stream slows or buckles,
then the cold there releases and that's what we're dealing with,
and that's why it's called the polar vortex, the vortex
being the circulation and the polar being the region from
which the cold there comes. So we're thinking the cold.
They will start to see it thin Friday afternoon, so
you should notice the temperatures dropping. The snow will lag

(21:54):
behind that until about eight or nine o'clock, and then
we'll get into a period of light snow temperatures on
Saturday and Sunday. Their highs will be probably around seventeen
to nineteen both days, with morning lows starting out at
about two to four below, and then the coldest morning

(22:15):
is going to be Monday morning at about five to
seven below, and the highs will be right around ten
or eleven degrees. As far as snow, yeah, mommy, and yeah,
we're we're not looking at a ton of wind, but
I'm watching the wind forecast closely. But with the temperatures
we're thinking in the morning being near zero or below,
you don't need a lot of wind to get feels

(22:37):
like or wind chill temperatures that make it feel like
it's ten, fifteen, twenty below zero. I don't know if
we'll reach the threshold of concern as an advisory for
protecting your scanber. We'll watch that closely. And as far
as the snow, the totals came down a little bit,
but I always remind people it's really not about the
depth of the snow. In this type of a cold atmosphere,

(22:59):
any snow the falls on the roads and the side
of that bear is going to make the roads slick.
So Friday night, Saturday early, Sunday night Monday early, are
you two timeframes. I think you're looking at about one
to four the first round and about one to two,
putting us in a total over the weekend of about
two to six.

Speaker 5 (23:16):
Okay, So I'm just gonna spitball here. After talking to
Douglas County School superintendent, sounds like Monday, if there's going
to be a freezing cold snow type day, even though
we're not getting a lot of snow, that might be
your delayed start or maybe some scoens might cancel.

Speaker 11 (23:32):
I agree. I think that's the reason. I mean, overall,
I don't know that the snow is going to have
much more of an additional impact on roads. I think
the roads are going to be what they are, and
we'll get accustomed to driving on them. You're never going
to be able to get the plows to scrape down
the bear pavement. Although we always joke about this, we
do have the benefit of the solar shovel, so if

(23:53):
the sun's out, even if it's only fifteen degrees, it
will do a good job of on the main roads
getting that pavement clear down. I do think the one
concern on Monday, and the reason we did alert days
we did pinpoint whether alert days for the snow on
the roads on Saturday combined with the cold, snow on
the roads on Sunday combined with the cold, and Monday
purely for just the cold in the morning. As it

(24:14):
relates to the kids, I can see delays and or cancelations.

Speaker 5 (24:17):
All right, So and that is going to last? How long?
When do we start to and I say warm up
that I'm just back to the thirties would be nice
After that?

Speaker 11 (24:27):
I think Tuesday very quickly. The sun will be out
on Tuesday. While we may start below zero again, that
temperature will come up very quickly with sunrise above zero.
And I do think we'll get back to about thirty
two to thirty four and then from there make our
way back to the seasonal forties for the remainder of
next week. I don't see an additional Arctic outbreak. As
a matter of fact, the long range through the twenty

(24:47):
eighth keeps us a little bit cooler than normal, but
not colder than normal, So it might be a slow
progression to get back to the forties. But overall, once
we get through this cold there. Remember, because of our elevation,
the coldest air, you know, kind of like syrups filling
over the edge of pancakes, will actually go into the Midwest,
so they will be in the deepest of the cold.

(25:08):
We're just going to be on the fringe, but certainly
cold enough to make an impact to you being out
and about this weekend.

Speaker 5 (25:13):
You know what I think I'm gonna do, Dave. I
think I'm just going to go to Puerto Rico next
week instead. That's that's going to be my plan. I
actually am going to Puerto Rico next week, but I'll
be broadcasting from Puerto Rico. It's a long story, but
I'll be talking to you from Puerto Rico. I'll have
their weather report and we can compare weather reports. Next Wednesday.
How about that?

Speaker 11 (25:32):
The safe yeah, yeah, you're going down there with your.

Speaker 5 (25:34):
Nose that I am one of my favorite clients. It
has a thing down there that we're going to be
talking about next week, and I'm looking forward to it,
and now really looking forward to it because now I
don't have to deal with this. We can we have
just a minute. And I know that you guys as
meteorologists talk about this stuff, but let's talk about how
to harden your home real quick against this because these

(25:58):
you know, we have freezing temperatures all the time and
then pipes don't burst and things are okay. But when
you're in the negatives, then then you're in a situation
where things things are going to start to break.

Speaker 11 (26:08):
Yeah, you know, you'll hear some things about making sure
your pipes outside are disconnect and hopefully everybody at this
point in January has has winter right the outside of
their home as it relates to anything for sprinklers, so
I think that's not really a concern. I think you've
got to be concerned about older homes that have their

(26:29):
you know, there's kitchen sinks or maybe a bathroom that's
on an outside wall, and the insulation in the home
isn't great. Maybe the windows. Maybe the windows you know,
don't completely keep the cold there out. And in those situations,
you know, the best advice is to turn the faucet
on for a trickle during the overnight hours just to
keep the water flowing. You know, rivers tend not to freeze.

(26:52):
They might have an ice on top of them, but
if the river is moving, the water will continue to move,
so you won't freeze the pipe. And then the other
thing you can do is you can open up your
cabinet doors underneath those sinks and let some of the
warm air from the house goin. You can certainly bump
the temperature up in the house too to combat it.
But again, I think those concerns are generally with older homes. Right,

(27:13):
Newer homes of the last twenty twenty five years, with
efficient furnaces and stuff, should be able to, you know,
withstand this gold. The one thing that we never know
is do we bust something underground, like right before where
you know you got flooding waters in the street because
the one hundred year old pipe running down the neighborhood
in downtown Denver couldn't withstand the cold. And so those
are things that you're not gonna be able to control them, right.

Speaker 5 (27:35):
I got a couple questions from the text line, Mandy,
aren't these so called polar vortexes just what we used
to call Rossby waves with a Rosy waves?

Speaker 11 (27:46):
Those those are the waves, Those are the circulation the
jet strings around the around the planet. So at the
poles it goes one way. In the mid latitudes it
goes the other way, and they buckle and everything it
relates to the jet strings. So the answer to that,
flat out without getting two is yes, that's what they're called.
But we've given them certain names because I think it
defines more directly what we're expecting. Polar vortex sounds more

(28:10):
like what you would expect coming this weekend as opposed
to a Rosbie wave.

Speaker 5 (28:14):
Well, let me ask one more question. Would you ask,
Dave if the jet stream in the southern hemisphere goes
the same direction as it does up here.

Speaker 11 (28:23):
Again, jet streams go so the mid latitudes, that's us
our storms go from west to east. Polar goes the
opposite way, and then in the southern hemisphere, same thing.
Mid latitudes are going the opposite way, and the polls
so they reverse, each one of them reverses Okay. The
southern hemisphere is completely opposite of the northern hemisphere.

Speaker 5 (28:45):
Okay, and a lot of people on our tech sign
are pointing out them. Monday is Mlkday. The kids will
be out of school anyway, so I don't have to
worry about that.

Speaker 11 (28:51):
Right, all right, that's right, hard things pulling on that one.

Speaker 5 (28:56):
There we go, all right, Dave Frasier, I will be
talking to you when you're freezing your took us off
next week from sunny Puerto Rico. So I look forward
to that, my friend.

Speaker 11 (29:06):
I'll be looking for some type of a tropical servant
to see if camping in your plans a little.

Speaker 5 (29:10):
There you go, thanks a lot. I appreciate that. Dave
Fraser from Box thirty one. I appreciate you, man a
thank you to talk to you later.

Speaker 11 (29:18):
All right.

Speaker 5 (29:18):
We'll be back the inauguration on MLK Day, and we
will be airing parts of it. I was talking to
Dave Tepper, our program director, and we're probably not going
to be airing it, you know, beginning to end, because
there's a lot of dead time in that. So but
we will be airing the oath. I'm sure we're gonna

(29:39):
be airing the speech. Jimmy Sangenberger is going to be
in for Ross Kaminski, so he will be dipping in
and out of it. But I also have Heidi Ganal
who is probably going to come on the show if
her schedule allows, because she is going to be at
the inauguration, as is Ryan Schuling. Ryan's going as well
from our sister station khow so we're I have people

(30:00):
on the ground there and I'm excited to bring you
some of that stuff as it goes on on Monday.
Did you see? And I didn't put this on the blog,
and I really shouldn't talk about stuff that's not on
the blog because I have so much stuff on the
blog today. Did you guys see like this Russian politician
came out and essentially was like, oh, you know, President

(30:23):
Trump is in danger and he should be just be careful.
You don't know what's going to happen at the inauguration.
It was like one of those are you being kind
and warning us or is that a veiled threat. It
was a little bit weird. And if there's ever been
a president that really stood the possibility of being assassinated
on inauguration day, I think it's this one. We already

(30:44):
know two people have already tried, so the security part
of it is concerning to me. I think it's concerning,
and I certainly hope the Secret Service is going to
do a better job this time than they did the
last time. So I want to make a quick apology. Yesterday,
when I was on my RNT my tear about politicians

(31:06):
not coming on this show, I mentioned Senator Michael Bennett
and how he had been kind at the DNC and
we had a lovely conversation and I kind of used
him as an example of how this should work. But
then my paranoi got the best to me, and I
was like, I bet it's his people. I bet that's
the reason he hasn't been back on the show when
in reality it's been scheduling issues. And his people were like, dude,

(31:28):
why do you what? And I felt bad and I
was wrong. So I just want to make sure I
apologize to Senator Bennet's people, because they are actually people
who do try to make him available and hopefully we
will have him again on the show soon. But I
should not have made a disparaging remark about his staff.
They are probably would you say they're the best at

(31:49):
getting back to you.

Speaker 7 (31:49):
They're very very very good. Yes, they're up there. Yeah.

Speaker 5 (31:52):
So I'm not involved in all of that back and forth.
And like I said, my paranoia got the best of me.

Speaker 7 (31:57):
So they yeah, very communicative to me.

Speaker 5 (32:00):
And I was like, you know what, I'm sorry. When
I'm wrong, I'll apologize, and I was wrong, so I
just want to get that out. I love disparaging people,
don't get me wrong, but only would they deserve it right,
not just randomly. That just willy nilly.

Speaker 8 (32:15):
And again to reiterate, people can go back and listen. Yeah,
like you said yesterday, that conversation with Senator Bennett was
it was good. It's very good. Yeah, you guys like
you said yesterday, you guys agreed, you disagreed that it
was civil.

Speaker 5 (32:27):
It was really really fun to listen to and it
was great. Afterwards we said, wow, that was really good.
We should do that again, and so we'll make that happen.

Speaker 7 (32:34):
And we both meant it.

Speaker 5 (32:35):
It was very good. When we get back, my friend ed,
pray there's going to join us. The real estate market
in Denver is really interesting. And when I say Denver,
I mean the entire metro area.

Speaker 9 (32:47):
Right.

Speaker 5 (32:48):
The suburbs and all of the areas around it. People
are buying and selling houses. It is happening, closings are occurring,
but it is It is such a different market then
when it was just a few years ago. And even
if you are not in the market to buy yoursell,
you should definitely want to know what your home values

(33:09):
are going to do in the next little bit because
we've seen these just insane, insane increases in home equity
here in the metro and I think that's over and
might be over forever because those were largely driven by
really artificially low interest rates that made it easy for

(33:30):
people to drive up the price, because when your interest
rate is really low, you can pay more for a house.
And now we're in the exact opposite situation. We're going
to talk to Ed Prayer about what that means next.
Keep it right here on KOA.

Speaker 1 (33:42):
The Mandy Connell Show is sponsored by Belle and Pollock
Accident and injury Lawyers.

Speaker 2 (33:46):
No, it's Mandy Connell.

Speaker 4 (33:49):
Maynam got.

Speaker 5 (33:59):
Study the nicety.

Speaker 4 (34:01):
Through many canal keeping sad Babe, Welcome Upcao, Welcome to
the second hour of the show, and joining me now
is the man I Trust for real estate and all
things real estate trends and.

Speaker 5 (34:16):
All that good stuff and pray the ed Welcome back
to the show, my friend.

Speaker 3 (34:21):
I'm so happy to be here. Thank you for having me.

Speaker 5 (34:24):
Mandy Well, you sent me an email yesterday with the
December market trends report for the real estate market, and
I am not going to pretend like I know how
this compares to December of last year or twenty fifteen
or twenty ten, but I'm assuming you have a better
handle on that. Are how does this December Before we

(34:45):
get into the nuts and bolts, how does this December
compare to prior December's. Are we just seeing seasonal softening
or is this something we should look at and go, wow,
this is significant.

Speaker 9 (34:59):
It's a great question because, especially over the last several months,
we've seen a lot of volatility with interest rates, and
that's a big part of why, you know, you see
that direct effect in the housing market the last December,
you know, the at the end of twenty twenty three,
we were right at like five point fifty one if

(35:22):
I'm not mistaken. Basically, we saw a five point one
percent increase in that median closed price from the end
of the year last year to this year, which is
really interesting because over the last couple of months we've
seen some decline in that median closed price again with
the big reason being interest rates taking up on us
from what we saw as a reprieve in mid September,

(35:44):
we saw him dip and you saw a huge amount
of activity kickoff right around that and since then it
slowed down a bit.

Speaker 5 (35:51):
Well, and it looks like we'll go through these numbers
really quick. The median closed price in December was the
same at a five hundred and eighty thousand. That was
zero percent increase or decrease. And that from when when
is that number? Is that month to month? Okay? And
you said there was a little bit softening in the
median price throughout the year though.

Speaker 3 (36:13):
We did.

Speaker 9 (36:14):
We saw general increases from the beginning of the year
through about Q three, but when we saw interest rates
tick back up, we really saw things slow down. So
something we watch really closely is mortgage applications. And when
you see rates dip, you know those mortgage applications kick
way up, and of course that means you have more

(36:35):
qualified buyers out there. And you know, I apologize if
it wasn't clear, but you know, one year ago we
were five point one percent lower than we are now,
with that five hundred and eighty thousand median closed price
being the close price at the end of December twenty
twenty four.

Speaker 3 (36:51):
When you see that zero.

Speaker 9 (36:52):
Percent change, that's from November to December, which is interesting
because you got a lot of folks, as you can imagine,
pulling their house off the market, waiting to get through
the holidays, waiting hopefully for rates to come down, or
getting into the spring.

Speaker 3 (37:07):
In summer selling market. And that's starting to happen now.

Speaker 9 (37:10):
You know, we're seeing kind of the ice a little
bit despite getting into these quarter temperatures later this week.

Speaker 3 (37:16):
We're starting to see activity kick up again.

Speaker 5 (37:19):
So and we're also seeing the number of listings drop
and considerably down twenty six percent. Is that seasonal because
as you just said, a lot of people are pulling
their homes off the market because they don't want to
deal with showings during the holidays, which is understandable and
traditionally the middle of winter. I mean, we're going into
this crazy low temperatures next week. That's not a time
when people are slepping around and going and looking at homes.

(37:41):
But we're down to six eight hundred and eighty eight listings,
down twenty six percent from November. That's still well below
our traditional average, isn't it.

Speaker 9 (37:52):
So we saw over the last few years, when you
saw rates dip just so so low, we saw that
listing inventory drop. I mean, all well below you know
where we're at with six.

Speaker 3 (38:03):
Hundred and eighty eight homes.

Speaker 9 (38:05):
But what's interesting is over the last few months, what
we've talked about, a lot is being above the ten
thousand unit levels, so above ten thousand active units. So
it's well below that. But you bring up a good point.
A majority is going to be seasonal. But then you've
got this interesting thing that's happened, and you know, if
rates kicked up towards the end of September, you know, unfortunately,

(38:28):
that means that a lot of the homes that.

Speaker 3 (38:30):
Weren't priced right, that weren't marketed right, would sit on
the market.

Speaker 9 (38:33):
And so you know, when we get to that that Thanksgiving,
you know, maybe a week or two after, you know,
we are certainly advising our clients and maybe time you know,
to think about pulling the property off the market, because
you know what happens is if you hold it off
the market for long enough, it's going to come back
as a new active listing and we can refresh it,

(38:54):
we can remarket it. And so you have just seasonality
in general with people holding off, but also you know,
pulling off active listings that may have sat longer than
expected with those higher rates.

Speaker 3 (39:05):
In Q four last year.

Speaker 5 (39:07):
What are we seeing in terms of when you can
meet with people. Are people starting to get realistic about
their pricing because you know, I always look at my neighborhood.
I always like watch Realtor dot com in my neighborhood
because I want to know what everybody's doing. And I
will tell you there are houses that go up for
sale that I look at their list price and I
laugh out loud. I'm like, yeah, that's a two year
ago list price. That's not going to happen now. Are

(39:30):
people starting to understand that those crazy days of three
four years ago are kind of over right now because
people are so much more price sensitive than they used
to be.

Speaker 9 (39:44):
Well, every situation is different, but that's really our job, Mandy.
As you can imagine, this is informing, educating, and really
helping our clients understand what's going on. Because you're right.
I mean, if we look at sales few years ago.
First of all, that's not something that an appraiser is
going to use. And it's also not something that a
savvy buyer or a savvy you know, agent is going

(40:07):
to see is support for pricing. And of course we've
seen some softening. So what we talked about is obviously
we need a plan to make sure it presents the
best possible way, you know, the property itself.

Speaker 3 (40:21):
And then it's just so hyper specific to it's not
it's not.

Speaker 9 (40:25):
Zip code it is it's not city certainly, it is subdivision,
it is neighborhood, it is street by street. So once
we understand the absorption rate and what's going on, you know,
then we could have a better understanding of hey, you know,
this hasn't slipped as much as some different areas, or hey,
we've seen some softening here because the last thing we
want to do is go through the pain of putting

(40:46):
the house on the market, prepping the house, you know,
and not being priced correctly.

Speaker 3 (40:51):
So we're seeing.

Speaker 9 (40:53):
Folks come around. But you've got a lot of situations
out there, you know, during during the craze, you know
where where it's really tight you know. I mean I
if let's say properties were being bid up and you
know it was a few percentage points higher than it
is now or even at PARR. Obviously, if you don't

(41:14):
have a whole lot of equity in the home, it's
really hard with closing pod costs to.

Speaker 3 (41:18):
Make that work. So I think even more it's it's about.

Speaker 9 (41:21):
Making a plan, really understanding like what is going on
very specifically, you know, in your area, to understand what
that value is going to look like to get it
actually sold.

Speaker 3 (41:32):
Versus said, tell me.

Speaker 5 (41:33):
About the buyers right now? I mean, what what are
we seeing?

Speaker 9 (41:38):
I do know.

Speaker 5 (41:39):
I have a friend who recently sold their home, and
she said that she had several couples come back to
look six and seven times at the house, and she
was like, that was something I was not prepared for.
But one of those couples eventually bought her house, right
so it was worth it for her to do six
or seven showings. What is the buyer like right now

(41:59):
that you're dealing with or you're seeing and what can
a seller expect when they're dealing with a with a
buyer that's now dealing with a much higher interest rate?

Speaker 9 (42:10):
Well short, you know, there's certainly less urgency and buyers
get to be picky, you know, instead of I mean
in certain cases we are seeing in buyers that wouldn't
even see the home and they're making blind bids, you know,
a couple of years ago. So now you know they're
coming back. They're taking a look, you know, in the
case that you mentioned many times, and probably doing that
across many different properties that might fit. Because ultimately, I mean,

(42:35):
despite seeing this drop in inventory, we're still at a
much higher inventory that we're used to, and as we
see the properties come back on the market, we're going
to see that I don't know that we'll get above
ten thousand, boy watching it closely, but ultimately, buyers get
to be picky and and with that not always because
it really is so specific area, but in many cases

(42:56):
we're seeing buyers able to get help with closing.

Speaker 3 (42:59):
Costs and or down payment.

Speaker 9 (43:01):
So you see a lot of savvy folks that are
potentially getting that rape bought down but getting creative in
making it work, and that means cooperation with the seller.
You're seeing a lot of sellers that are willing to
make a deal, especially if a property has been setting
for a while.

Speaker 5 (43:18):
Well, if somebody asked on the text line, can you
ask them about creative financing or seller financing? Are you
seeing more contingent deals going because for a while you
couldn't get a deal on a contingency that said I'll
buy your house if I can sell my house. Is
that happening again? And what about those creative financing deals?

Speaker 9 (43:38):
Well, sure, the contingent financing is certainly very prevalent, and
it's more prevalent than it's ever been. I mean, truly,
it's fairly commonplace. So I would say, you know, fifty
percent of deals need to have a property sold, at
least in our case. And the issue is as an agent,

(43:59):
you know, let's say we wrap sent to sell and
we get a contingent offer. We got to be really
careful and just make sure that we understand, you know,
the risk that goes into you know, the is the
the contingent property under contract, has it been sitting? Is
there the room you know to get to a price
that would get that sold, or or is it you know,

(44:19):
we're going to go through this for you.

Speaker 3 (44:21):
Know, and end up not getting across the finish line.

Speaker 9 (44:23):
So it's it is more complicated now because if we
are past the days of throwing a sign in the yard,
and that contingent sale goes in a day, you know,
just like the one that you put under contract. And
as far as creative finiancing, you know, there's a number
of programs across the state of Colorado, and you know
they help with closing costs, they help with down payment assistance.

Speaker 3 (44:46):
You're seeing sellers.

Speaker 9 (44:48):
They can get creative to an extent when you have financing,
which is most most cases. Uh, you know, there's some
limitations on what you can do as far as concessions
and things like that. You know, you are seeing subject
two deals. You're seeing more assumptions. Of course, when you
have properties out there with the existing debt, that's more

(45:10):
attractive than what's available today.

Speaker 3 (45:12):
So again, every.

Speaker 9 (45:14):
Situation is different, but it feels to some extent, you
know that most of the deals that we work on
there's some sort of creative financing just to sort of
make it work for everybody. And a big part of
that is you just have rates that are high, so
binding down rates is very normal these days.

Speaker 5 (45:32):
Well, and I said to the audience earlier, I don't
want to be the bearer of bad news, but if
you're waiting and you're ready to go, like say you've
got your down payment saved up, you're ready to pull
the trigger, but you're waiting for five percent interest rates
to come back. You may not get that this year.
I'm just going to be perfectly blunt. I don't I'm
looking at the treasury market, I'm looking at government spending.

(45:53):
I'm looking at all of these different factors. I don't
see interest rates coming back down to the force maybe
for the next ten years. I mean, it would be
shocking to me. So people need to wrap their heads
around the fact that this is going to be what
it is, and that you marry the house and you
date the rate. Okay, you just take the rate that
you get right now and you work on that refile

(46:14):
later when the rates do come down. But I tell
people all the time, and I say this as a landlord,
like I own a rental property, you are paying a
mortgage no matter what you're doing. You're paying someone's mortgage
when you're a renter. And so you can either take
on your own mortgage and pay your and start building
your own asset welfare, or you can continue to pay

(46:37):
someone else's mortgage and wait for interest rate drops that
may not come. So what I'm saying here is, if
you're ready, do it. Don't wait, just pull the trigger,
go ahead and look and start shopping. Because it sounds like,
and I don't want to call it a buyer's market,
but sounds like it's a good time to buy a
house in Denver. That there are probably some people who

(46:58):
would be very happy to all their homes to you
right now.

Speaker 9 (47:04):
Absolutely, And I will say, it's so sensitive. You know,
the market is so sensitive and changes so quickly. You
know that that that idea that we're going to wait.
It's tricky because as soon as we see significant improvement
and rates, we see the number of Morgan's applications go up.
I mean truly overnight, in the competition increases. So if

(47:27):
we go through it with the mindset of, hey, I
can get the rate bought down to something that is reasonable,
that makes sense, right, I mean, the last thing you
want to do is be paying way more than you're
comfortable with. But I can get a bought down today
and know that, hey, it's going to be a year,
two years. I mean, like you said, Mandy, it may
be many, many years before we get back to the force.
You know, you've taken advantage of a market that is

(47:50):
very bier friendly, and I would go as far to
say is is it's as far on the buyer side
of the market that I've seen or we have seen
in many years. I mean, you know, certainly until before COVID,
and I think with that there's there's a lot of
opportunity out there.

Speaker 5 (48:09):
I've got some interesting questions here and we're going to
get through them if we can. Given the fires in California,
ramifications for insurance companies are huge. We felt that in
Colorado more and more condos are becoming unwarrantable because of
huge insurance deductibles. How do I deal with this as
a seller?

Speaker 9 (48:32):
That's such a good question. And Mandy, you and I
have talked about your unit. I have just this last
year gotten three claims where they you know, huge assessments
because it was a HAYEO claim and just the deductible
requires a huge assessment, and you know, the non warrantable.

(48:53):
If if the h o A is in good shape
and you have the proper reserves, you should still be
able to get financing the nightmare and that would be
with a portfolio lender, which is a lender that holds
their own loans versus selling it to Anny or Freddy.
The nightmare situation, of course, is that you get to
a situation where it's it's not ensurable or not financeable,

(49:15):
because you can imagine if you limit to a pash market,
it's the value is going to take a big hit.
So I think understanding the health of the HOA and
with the fires in California, it's We've been hearing about
this and talking about it a lot, but with Florida
and California, it is it's starting to look or feel

(49:37):
unsustainable from an insurer's perspective, and that's that's just my understanding. Well, obviously,
those premiums get pushed onto the consumer and at some
point the equation does not work. I mean, we're seeing
we're seeing seeing premiums here in Colorado skyrocket and that
wouldn't you know, hould a candle to what's happening on.

Speaker 3 (49:59):
The coast there.

Speaker 5 (50:00):
But people may not realize. I just read an article
about this yesterday. Colorado's insurance prices are comparable to those
in Florida now, which was kind of shocking to me.
I'm not gonna lie because I have a lot of
friends in Florida that are dealing with insurance companies either
pulling out or going under, and it's been really challenging.
A lot of people are asking if we are going
to see an influx of Californians and because they're going

(50:23):
to get their insurance checks and they're going to say
I'm done, or we're now seeing that there are a
lot of areas in California that may not be allowed
to rebuild. I have friends in California now that are
saying it's going to be almost impossible to rebuild in
parts of Malibu. I mean, it's it's just it's going
to be impossible. Have you gotten any interest as of yet?
Have you have?

Speaker 9 (50:43):
You?

Speaker 5 (50:44):
Should we worry about that because these are going to
be cash buyers, and a cash buyer makes it very
difficult to compete with when you are a buyer that
has a mortgage to show. So what do you what
do you see in the near term and then in
the long term there.

Speaker 9 (51:00):
I think that, like you know, speaking to that situation,
I don't know that that's going to be a material
thing where we were starting to see save properties bit up,
But what I would say is generally speaking, we're getting.

Speaker 3 (51:12):
A lot of folks. It's interesting, you know, the folks
that leave seem.

Speaker 9 (51:16):
To be going to North Carolina or Florida, interestingly enough,
and we get a lot of folks from those those
more expens more. It's a lot of Californians coming in,
and I would think that that would there be an uptick,
There will be obviously ear to the ground. But what's
interesting too is most people don't realize I know that

(51:36):
I didn't. But you know, the area that's gotten hit
the worst, you know, over the last couple of years.

Speaker 3 (51:42):
With rates coming up, has been Texas.

Speaker 9 (51:44):
I mean, Austin has just gotten I mean, really really
whacked as far as values are concerned. And because of that,
you're seeing a lot of folks, a lot of Californians,
and a lot of people flock to Texas because the
cost of living has dropped quite a bit. And obviously
there is big, big employment and population hubs and so.

Speaker 3 (52:06):
We hear that a lot.

Speaker 9 (52:07):
But we'll be watching closely with people coming from California
because you can imagine from their perspective, it would be
difficult to rebuild their knowing that I mean, I can't
even quite fathom what will happen to premiums now.

Speaker 5 (52:22):
Oh well, and I read an article by an insurance
CEO who said, we want to continue working in California,
but you have to let us charge the rates that
we need to cover these losses. And that's what it's
going to come down to, because that's why State Farm
dropped a bunch of people. They went to the state
of California and said, the wildfire risk is out of control.

(52:42):
We've got to raise rates, and California said no. So
State Farm said, okay, we'll take our marbles and we'll
dump nineteen hundred people off of our insurance policies and
we'll go about our business. But they were very specific
about the areas they chose, and those are the areas
that are now on fire. So perhaps government would do
well to listen to the actuaries who are studying this

(53:03):
every single day of their lives, to ask for these
rate increases, because unfortunately, if you build a house on
the beach in Florida, you are at a far higher
likelihood of having that house destroyed in a hurricane, right,
so you should have to pay more money up without
a doubt. Yeah, it's not fair in the sense that

(53:23):
you're going to be paying more. But you chose to
build or buy a house either in the urban rural
interface or someplace that's a high wildfire danger. You got
to factor that in. And I think that could be
something that depresses prices in those areas in the near
and in the you know, in the next couple of years.
What we'll have to see.

Speaker 3 (53:45):
It'll be interesting to see.

Speaker 9 (53:47):
And I heard something, I mean just yesterday morning that
obviously with some of those pockets of wealth that people
they expect them to line back up and rebuild as
fast as they can in But I think what we need.

Speaker 3 (54:01):
To remember is that's just a small small.

Speaker 9 (54:04):
Fraction of the population, you know, in rebuilding with you know,
they're thinking that the premiums are of course are going
to skyrocket, but there is that that you know, those
folks that it doesn't matter for. But the bigger narrative
here is is just not going to be sustainable for
a big portion of that population. And of course, just

(54:25):
like you would alluded to, if they're not going to build,
which they probably shouldn't. It's amazing how smart those actuaries
are in areas that are high risk what happens because
we're already at a housing shortage and that's the same here,
you know, And that's that's that one thing where it
will be really interesting to see what happens with pricing,
with values, knowing that there is a housing shortage certainly

(54:49):
nationally and even more so in areas like California and
certainly the Demo Metro area.

Speaker 5 (54:57):
Ed Greater are my favorite real estate agents guy. If
you need to buy or sell, I would highly recommend
you use him. He does an amazing job and knows
how to navigate all of these ins and outs that
we just talked about in the real estate market.

Speaker 3 (55:09):
Ed.

Speaker 5 (55:09):
Good to see my friend. I will talk to you
again soon.

Speaker 9 (55:13):
Hey, I appreciate you having me Mandy, And just a
quick shout out, I forgot about this.

Speaker 3 (55:17):
This is a standing up guys.

Speaker 9 (55:19):
Someone really excelled on our team. Blaze Peterson has served
a huge amount of folks in twenty twenty four and
we appreciate everything he does.

Speaker 3 (55:28):
He's here for you. Let us know how we can help.

Speaker 5 (55:31):
Okay, all right, that's Ed Brather and we will be
right back. You can always find our interviews and the
full show at the iHeart Radio app. Just search for
the Mandy Connell podcast. And while you're at the iHeart
Radio app, now you can set my show as a
preset right there at the top of the app. You
can just put my face think right there, think and

(55:52):
you just think.

Speaker 7 (55:53):
You just click on it.

Speaker 5 (55:54):
So easy, so incredibly easy. So I have to I
have I okay, a rod get ready? Are you ready?
I have a compliment for Mayor Mike Johnston. As much
crap as I gave him yesterday, he did something so good,
so good that I have to give them credit. So

(56:17):
the Denver City Council, in a five to three vote
no was eight to eight, eight to four, eight to five,
eight to five vote because there's thirteen members of the
council and an eight to five vote, decided to do
away with setbacks for needle exchange programs. They wanted to
be able to put them right next to schools, because
you know, elementary school kids need to understand about drug

(56:39):
addiction from the time they're very very little. Mayor Mike
Johnston vetoed it. He put kids before junkies, and no
offense if you're a junkie, but you've made a whole
bunch of bad choices in your life. And if you're
still a junkie, you're continuing to make a bunch of
bad choices in your life. And I want to protect
kids from making the same bad choices. So I have

(57:01):
to say hats off to Mayor Mike Johnston because he
did the right thing and vetoed that. And I don't
think that the Denver City Council is going to be
able to get this one over the finish line in
terms of over riding a veto. They need one person
to flip their vote, and the people who voted against
it were like, no, I'm good, I'm good, We're not
going to do that. So I kind of want to

(57:27):
talk about the ceasefire with Israel and Hamas, but I
am so skeptical that this is going to be a
thing that sticks. How long before Hamas breaks the ceasefire,
because guys, Israel never breaks the ceasefire. It's always Hamas
that breaks the ceasefire. I just spoke to a friend

(57:51):
in Israel and they said Hamas is in the streets
of Gaza celebrating their win. So getting the Gaza strip
completely destroyed, getting forty something thousand Palestinian people killed. That
is what they're now claiming victory. And I want you

(58:11):
to just think about that for a second, because this
is not the end. This just means that they will
go back and recharge and come back unless there is
the utter and complete annihilation of Hamas in every way,
shape or form, so there is nothing left to negotiate.
This is going to keep going on, and I just

(58:32):
don't know what is going to what is going to
happen there. You know, I've got a nephew there. I'm
optimistic that he has done fighting for the time being,
but I don't know. I'm I'm It's kind of like,
uh wait and see, I'm not going to be celebrating
just yet. Don't get me wrong. I would love to

(58:53):
see the end of this war, but I would love
to see this war end with the destruction of the
people who've made it their entire lives to destroy the
country of Israel. This Texter Mandy on the Common Spirit
Health text line at five six to six. I know,
Mandy is Biden seriously trying to take credit for the ceasefire. Lol,
it was all Trump. I happen to agree with you, Texter,

(59:16):
I do Mandy time out. I thought he did the opposite.
I thought he went with the junkies. No, he vetoed it.
He vetoed the bill that would have expanded legal exchange
programs and put them everywhere. And that's just absolutely wrong. Mandy.
I totally agree with you about Mayor Johnston. But I
did think it was a little ironic that a couple

(59:36):
of weeks ago they banned the sales of flavored vape
products because of concerns for the kids, but then this
week they want to open up more free needle and
meth pipe locations closer to schools. Don't expect consistency of thought,
and banning flavored vaping was not about protecting kids. It
was about virtue signaling, because they think vaping is bad.

(01:00:00):
Those vapors are bad. We don't like Kevin's cloud of
gotten candy smelling lies.

Speaker 6 (01:00:06):
We don't like that.

Speaker 5 (01:00:08):
There's one thing that the Dinversity Council is not short on,
and that is virtue signaling posturing. Because, by the way,
how do we have a bunch of junkies walking around
with nothing to shoot their drugs with? I mean, is
that what we're worried about? Think about that for a second,
and I understand neatle exchange programs started to protect people

(01:00:30):
from the spread of hepatitis or HIV as they daily
killed themselves on the installment plan by using injectable drugs,
which I mean that to me the logic there. You
really got to add some tortured logic right there. We've
got to make it easier for them to shoot the
drugs that will more than likely eventually kill them, but

(01:00:51):
they'll it'll kill them slower, so we don't have to
worry about them killing someone else with hepatitis or HIV.
So you know, at this point though both of those diseases,
HIV and hepatitis have treatment options. We now have HIV
drugs that can essentially reduce the viral load in someone

(01:01:14):
who is infected with HIV to zero. So do we
still need to be enabling people and making their drug
have it easier. I'm just throwing you throwing that out there.
Mandy aj says the hostage deal was going nowhere until
President Trump took it over. Correct. Do they still have
their supply line from Iran however?

Speaker 6 (01:01:34):
Uh?

Speaker 5 (01:01:34):
Probably, But the neutralization of hesbula in the North has
created a supply chain issue. But they'll still be able
to come through the Philadelphia Corridor along the border of
Egypt until Egypt gets serious about doing something. This person said,
I don't think Israel should withdraw from the areas. I
don't either, but this is the only way they're going
to get some of their hostages back, and it's just

(01:01:58):
some I actually think this deal sucks now that I
see the details. Israeli forces will withdraw to the Gaza border,
allowing displaced Palestinians to return to their homes and for
the transfer of hostages and prisoners. Large amounts of humanitarian
aid will be shipped into Gaza. Hospitals and healthcare centers
will be rebuilt. Meanwhile, Hamas will release thirty three hostages

(01:02:22):
in exchange for one hundred Palestinian prisoners with life sentences.
According to a portion of the deal shared by Hamas,
Israel will also release a thousand Palestinian prisoners who were
not involved in the October seventh attacks, and an unspecified
number of Palestinian prisoners will also be released abroad or
in Gaza. Does that sound like a fair deal. I

(01:02:47):
certainly don't think so. I mean, does that sound like
a fair deal to you? I think that Israel should
be allowed to go in and exterminate every single person
wearing that ste supid scarf that Hamas loves. And then
they should be able to go in and exterminate every
single person that is affiliated with Hesbelah. And then they

(01:03:09):
should be able to go into Iran and take out
the leadership there, because they're the ones fomenting all this
violence in the first place. But they won't because too
much of the world is already anti Semitic, and Israel,
unlike every other nation in the world, is not allowed
to defend itself to victory. It only gets to defend
itself to a draw, which is what we have today.

(01:03:31):
There are a lot of things in play domestically in
Israel that are leading to this. Number one, the pressure
by people about the hostages has become overwhelming. That's huge.
People are taking the streets demanding that more to be
done to get the hostages back. They just want their
family members back. I don't have a ton of confidence

(01:03:52):
that a lot of them are not coming back in boxes.
I believe that. I believe most of them are dead.
I think most of the young women that have been
kidnapped to probably spent the last over year and that
months now being sexually assaulted on a daily basis and
utterly and completely traumatized. I mean, I just think it's
a bad situation. Not that they shouldn't want the hostages back,

(01:04:13):
but the reserve system that is bringing soldiers into the
fight has been under a severe amount of strain because
Israel's army, which is formidable, is not built for a
war of this length. Because historically wars in Israel have
been short and fast, challenging, but short, so they have

(01:04:35):
the ability to keep making dicycling people in with great regularity,
and now those have been incredibly strained. Not to mention,
Israel is tired, Israelis are tired. So they need a break.
And I know that sounds like such a pat answer,
but they need a break from being bombed every day.

(01:04:57):
They need some certainty that things are moving forward, at
least for a little while, because, like I said, I
know this is not the end of this by any
stretch of the imagination. What I haven't seen anywhere in
this deal is who is gonna govern Gaza when we
get done. You cannot allow Hamas to take their leadership
positions back. You can't do it. You simply can't so

(01:05:20):
what does that even look like? So I don't know. Yeah, Mandy,
what's that saying? Your family uses If you're gonna be stupid,
you better be tough. Yes, indeedy they were stupid, Mandy.
Trump threatened Hell to pay if there wasn't a deal
by inauguration. I believe he has to know that this
deal sucks for Israel, but rather than acknowledge Hamas to

(01:05:42):
not give him what he wants, he's making Israel eat
a crap sandwich and claim it as a win. It
is all optics. However, I believe once he's president and
Amas inevitably renigs on the agreement, Trump will support Israel
far more than Biden ever did in their response and
resumption of trying to eliminate Hamas. And I will tell
you this, I'm now over the last you know, year

(01:06:03):
and some months since the horrible, vicious attacks of October seventh.
I've now had the opportunity to meet and talk to
so many Israelis, whether they are Israeli civilians, Israeli soldiers,
and the Israeli people. Even though they're tired and they
and they don't want to fight anymore, right now, they
understand that this is a battle for their survival and

(01:06:26):
they're not going to stop fighting. But neither is Amas,
neither is Hesbelah, you know, neither are the anti Semites
in the International Criminal Court. They're just not So they've
got to have a breather because they know it's not over.
This isn't like you know, D Day or V Day
we declared victory, there was capitulation from our enemies. That's

(01:06:52):
not what this is with Amas. This is just a break.
And I would like to I'd like to know what
you guys think. How many days will pass before Hamas
breaks the ceasefire? How many days Hasbila broke the ceasefire?
In six days? Hamas has suffered far more losses than

(01:07:15):
Hasbola has. But how many days do you think it
will be before Hamas breaks the ceasefire? And inevitably they
will break the ceasefire, it will not be Israel. So
you can text that to five six, six nine zero.
I'm going to say, I am going to say one
hundred days. I'm going to give them a hundred days

(01:07:35):
a little over three months. I think they break the ceasefire.
And I think I'm being way optimistic, very optimistic. Mandy
how about if they exposed all the Palestinian prisoners being
released to some deadly disease. Now that would be something.
But those Palestinian prisoners are going to go back to Gaza.
And there are people in Gaza, innocent people in Gaza

(01:07:57):
who may have voted for Hamas in two thousands, but
they never got to vote them out because the Moss
never had elections after that. And those people, you know,
for the rules of war, which I think are ridiculous.
Rules of wars is funny. They have to be followed.
Give it to Belgium to govern Oh why not Lichtenstein.

(01:08:20):
I think it's got to be governed by people from
the Middle East, but it certainly cannot be Amas. Okay,
when we get back, I have so many stories on
the blog today that I have not gotten to. So
many stories on the blog today, including one a Rod.
Can you make the dead horse available in the next segment,
just drag it out almost dead and drag out our

(01:08:42):
dead horse. I'm gonna a little more on the upcoming
gop chair kind of just one more time, just for
a couple of minutes. It'll be okay, It'll be fine.
Talk about that next The.

Speaker 1 (01:08:52):
Mandy Connell Show is sponsored by Belle and Pollock Accident
and Injury Lawyers.

Speaker 2 (01:08:57):
No, it's Mandy Connelly, Dona koam sat.

Speaker 3 (01:09:09):
Say can the nicety through three?

Speaker 4 (01:09:14):
Mandy Donald keeping your sad bab Welcome, Uncle, Welcome to.

Speaker 5 (01:09:19):
The third hour of the show, and I am your
host for the next one hour, Mandy Connell. That guy
over there, Anthony Rodriguez, we call him Ay Rod and
we've dragged out the dead horse to beat it for
one more second because coming up in March, there are
some extremely important elections taking place with the Colorado Republican Party.
And you all know how I feel about the current

(01:09:41):
leadership of the Colorado Republican Party. I had Britta Horn
on last week. She is running to be the chairperson
of the GOP. She is like a bright, happy warrior
who would love to grow the party and welcome people
into the party instead of trying to get as many
people out the party as possible. And the reason I

(01:10:01):
bring this up again is we have a new contender
in the ring and her name is Darcy's showning and
I'm not positive I'm saying her last name right, and
I'm not trying to be disrespectful if I'm getting it wrong.
I'm just not positive. I've never heard it said out loud.
That being said, Darcy is currently on the leadership team
of the Colorado Republican Party. She is an ally of

(01:10:25):
Dave Williams, and those two things make her a non
starter for me as chairman of the Republican Party. If
the Republican Party is going to be competitive in the
state of Colorado, they have to get rid of the
leadership that has done nothing but whittle away Republicans who

(01:10:47):
don't ascribe to whatever they believe at that moment what
a good Republican is. When asked the simple question what
makes a good Republican, the little cabal of people who
want to run in everybody out of it didn't have
an answer. They love to tell you what a rhino is,
but they can't tell you what a good Republican is
because they have no idea, because they just keep moving

(01:11:09):
the goalpost to wherever they want them. I mean, today,
you could be a good Republican, tomorrow you could be
a disaster. And Darcy is again, I don't know her
at all personally. She's a fiery mom. She's with Moms
for Liberty, she loves to mix things up and you know,
really pushed back and great, that's perfect. That's not what

(01:11:29):
we need in the leadership of the Colorado Republican Party
when it is directed at other Republicans, and she has
a history of that. She's also behind the rather nasty
emails that have gone out about transgender people and candidates
at the Great Distress of GOP candidates running against them,

(01:11:52):
and she has no remorse. I just want to say
this about the Republican Party. It is one thing to
be against children receiving permanently altering medical treatments, and quite
another to disparage an adult who's made a choice that

(01:12:15):
they have decided they are transgender and want to make
that change. If you're an adult and you want to
do all that, I don't care. I really don't. I
believe in freedom, and I believe that people should be
able to make choices for themselves when they are adults,
and I don't believe that Darcy feels that way. She
sent out very inflammatory emails that have created problems, and
then when called on it, she attacked the Republican for

(01:12:40):
calling her on it. I mean, it's just it's no more,
no more Colorado Republican Party. We need a fresh start.
We need someone who can go out and bring people
to the party. Instead of making it so embarrassing to
be a part of that, people don't want to be
a part of it anymore, myself included. We want people
that will actually help candidates to victory, not rip them

(01:13:03):
apart in a public forum. We want candidates that can
clearly articulate the Republican message and why it's better than
what the Republicans are doing now. And that's not what
we see from the current leadership. So if you are
gonna be voting, please just consider do we really need
another Trump wannabe? Because that's what a lot of these

(01:13:25):
people are. They're Trump wannabes. They see him with his
tough talk and his snarky comments and his you know,
poking fun at people, and they're like, that's good, that's me.
Only there's only one Trump, and only he can pull
it off. Everybody else just starts to be obnoxious and
really intolerably obnoxious. We need leadership for the Republican Party

(01:13:47):
that doesn't fit into that category. So please, we can
now put the dead horse back in the closet until
the next time we have to drag out the dead
horse and beat it one more time. Couple great articles
in Westward that I want to direct your attention to.
After Mayor Mike Johnston's disastrous press conference where he stood

(01:14:08):
up in as he was talking about the murder of
two people and stabbing of two more, three more, two more,
he said with a straight face, Denver crime is on.
We're going in the right direction. Denver's so safe. You
should just come down here and check it out for yourself. Well,
Westward did a little journalism. Let me just share this

(01:14:32):
little snippet from this with you. In the past six months,
there have been sixty five violent crimes reported within a
block of the mall from fifteenth to seventeenth Streets between
Weewata Street and Broadway, according to the DPDS crime Map.
That includes one other murder, twenty aggravated assaults, nine robberies,

(01:14:52):
and thirty five incidents classified as crimes against persons, which
can include rape, kidnapping, stalking, hey and other offenses. Denver's
overall crime rate decreased in twenty twenty four. There were
seventy one thousand, five hundred and thirty one reported crimes
last year compared to seventy five thousand, four hundred and

(01:15:14):
ninety and twenty twenty three, and seventy seven thousand, eight
hundred and fifty one in twenty twenty two. According to
Police Department data. However, that drop is largely due to
a decrease in property crime. Violent crime saw slight uptick.
There were six thousand, four hundred and fifty reports of
violent crimes in Denver in twenty twenty four, up from

(01:15:35):
six thousand, four hundred and sixteen the year before. Year
over year, reports of murders and sexual assaults both decreased
in twenty twenty four by eleven percent and four percent, respectively,
but robberies and aggravated assaults increased by two percent and
one percent. Certainly does call into question the mayor telling

(01:15:57):
us that we just had a perception blum about downtown Denver.
It wasn't the crime, it was just our perception of
the crime. So hats off to Westward for doing a
little digging to get the actual data. Now, what I'd
really like to see is data from ten years ago

(01:16:19):
compared to now. Data from pre legalization of weed would
be an interesting comparison, don't you think?

Speaker 3 (01:16:27):
So?

Speaker 5 (01:16:29):
Denver is not the safe place it used to be,
it is still not safe. And as much as the
Mayor keeps telling us that all we need to do
is come downtown and we can you know, see how
safe it is. Well, you know what, unless you get stabbed,
unless you're walking down the street on a layover and
a guy slits your throat and you die, and then, ah, yeah,

(01:16:51):
I wonder what their perception was. I just you know, curious,
just cure. So yeah, when we get back, another story
from Westward, and this one is kind of important. As
a matter of fact, the Denver City Council is going
to get an update about this very issue tonight. Remember

(01:17:13):
when we were told that we were going to create
these tiny home communities and people were going to move
in because the only problem for homeless people was that
they were on the streets. They needed housing. So how
are the tiny home communities doing? I have some data
for you next. This is about the tiny home communities
that Mayor Mike Johnston ran on. This was one of
his campaign promises that I thought was a bad idea.

(01:17:38):
You may remember when he came in during his candidate interview,
the same one where he said he would commit to
once monthly interviews with me that never seemed to happen.
He said, we're going to create these tiny home communities.
We're gonna spread them out all over the city. And
I said, what about staffing. How are you going to
get these things staffed, because as far as I know,

(01:17:59):
they can't really staff even the homeless shelters they have.
He didn't have an answer for that. Well, they did
it anyway. One of them is in the Overland neighborhood.
They call it the Lapause Tiny Home Community, I guess.
And somebody started asking questions about how many of these people,
these homeless folks who we were told they didn't have

(01:18:19):
any other issues except they didn't have a house. So
it should be easy for them to get into some
kind of housing and then move on to more permanent housing, right,
I mean, if it's just the fact that they don't
have a roof over their head right now, then that
should solve the problem. Except it's shockingly not solving the
problems at all. Let me just share this from Westward.

(01:18:42):
The Lapause site can house sixty residents at a time,
but it has only managed to get sixteen residents into
permanent housing in ten months. Fourteen residents have returned to
unsheltered homelessness, and the average amount of time each person
spends living at the site is one hundred and twenty
five days, or more than four months. So how's it

(01:19:06):
going for the neighborhood? Not so good. One neighborhood activist
was shot and is now paralyzed from the Sturnham Down.
Of course, you know, the people in the city are like, oh, no,
that has nothing to do with that. But crime is
ticked up around the area. People are having stuff stolen
off their lawns, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And

(01:19:28):
this Westward Peace was very well researched. Tonight at the
Denver City Council meeting, they are supposed to get an
update on the effectiveness on these programs. But I'm curious
as to whether or not they're going to present this
data because it seems to me that every time the
people who are running the what is it the way home? Wait?

(01:19:51):
Is that no, that was hicken Looper. What is this
one called? All in all in Denver? That's what it's called.
Every time the people that are running this thing are
called to the Denver City Council, they show up with
far fewer answers than the Denver City Council is wanting.
And the Denver City Council, they're the ones that control

(01:20:12):
the purse, and they're the ones that are responsible for
what the money is spent on ultimately, and they don't
have answers. According to the December seventeenth numbers from a
city housing dashboard, nearly eight hundred and sixty formerly homeless
residents are now living in permanent housing after going through

(01:20:32):
all in Mile High. The dashboard, which hasn't been updated
in a month, complains that about four hundred and fifty
people moved into permanent housing straight from street homelessness, and
about four hundred people moved from city funded hotel sites
or micro communities into permanent housing. Well that's great, but
how many of those other people left behind are returning

(01:20:54):
to unsheltered homelessness. That's the big question, and that ultimately
is the thing that disproves the notion that the only
reason people are homeless is because they don't have a home,
Because if they're choosing to go back to unsheltered homelessness,
that would indicate that something else is going on there,
isn't it. Yeah, At the central Park site. The stay

(01:21:18):
in that is a vacant city owned motel next to it.
They've seen the most success, with forty four people moving
into permanent housing since it opened in December of twenty
twenty three. However, ten people from the site returned to
unsheltered homelessness, so a quarter as many people as they
found housing for have just gone back to the streets.

(01:21:41):
That site can house fifty four residents at a time,
so this is not working, not working as well as
people would hope, Westward says, With only seventy five people
moving into permanent housing so far, the sites have hardly
made a dent in the way home promise. The most

(01:22:03):
recent point in time count a federally funded tallly of
how many people are homeless during one night in January
found that Denver County had sixty five hundred homeless residents
on the streets and in shelters. About three thousand of
those residents were living on the streets. So we already
know the numbers are going in the wrong direction, and
we're paying for all this and it's not doing what

(01:22:25):
it's supposed to do. In the private sector, there's this
thing called accountability. If you say you're going to do
something and then you don't do it well, you could
lose that contract, your business can go under. But in
government there's no sense of accountability, because if there was,
they would at least close down this lapase site. It's
not moving people into home, into actual housing. It's failing

(01:22:49):
at its mission. Now, to his credit, Mayor Johnston has
stopped talking about more tiny homes or homeless hotels and
has turned his focus into make looking more access to
permanent housing available. That's a good thing. You should have
done it a year and a half ago, just saying
we'll see what happens next, but not going as great

(01:23:12):
as one would hope.

Speaker 7 (01:23:14):
So when we get back, I.

Speaker 5 (01:23:16):
Read a great article this morning by a guy named
river Page. We're coming back to TikTok. We're ending the
show with TikTok. We started the show a TikTok. A
lot of TikTok users are now downloading another Chinese app
called Red Note. But a weird thing is happening on
Red Note, and it's something that I think the Chinese
government will never allow to continue. We'll discuss that with

(01:23:37):
river Page when we get back. River Page is now
joining me to talk about that article. River, Welcome to
the show.

Speaker 7 (01:23:42):
First of all, Hi Mandy, Thanks thanks for having me.

Speaker 5 (01:23:47):
So first of all, tell people why there are TikTok
refugees going to Red Note if they have not heard
the story.

Speaker 6 (01:23:54):
So there's a last year Congress passed a bill that
requires by Dance, which is the Chinese parent company of TikTok,
to sell TikTok to an American buyer before this coming Sunday.
They just the Supreme Court just hurt arguments are supposed
to release their findings Friday because basically by dancers saying no,

(01:24:17):
we don't want to sell, but it looks like the
spring Court is going to.

Speaker 3 (01:24:20):
Make them sell.

Speaker 6 (01:24:22):
So far they've signaled that like they're not going to
sell to any American, although they could be changing now
because the Chinese seemed reportedly are on board with the
Elon Musk buying it. Mister Beast, I just found out
the YouTuber is trying to buy it, so like things
could change, but for right now and especially earlier this week,

(01:24:43):
it seemed like Red Book I'm sorry TikTok was going
to be banned by Sunday, and so people started flocking
to Red Note aka Red book as in, you know,
our favorite quotations from the chairman Melson dogs a little
red book, also.

Speaker 10 (01:25:03):
Called in Chinese xiaohong Shu.

Speaker 3 (01:25:06):
And so.

Speaker 6 (01:25:09):
They're going there basically out of spite for American regulators
for taking away an app that they love, because the
Chinese are spine of them. But you know, if you
grow up in my generation of twenty nine, you know,
you don't really have any expectation of privacy online. So
people don't really take you know, the government's protection of

(01:25:35):
their data as like something earnest. They think it's a
sort of cynical ploy to pical narratives.

Speaker 5 (01:25:39):
I think that sort of thing. We had a spirited
discussion about this on the show earlier, and for me,
it has more to do with the fact that China
is a geopolitical foe, right. I mean, that's that's the
thing that gets me. That's the that's the tough nut
to swallow. But in your article, which I think is hilarious,
that you point out that all of their privacy notices
are in Chinese. So you may have given them your
four lank in your first more a child, what do

(01:26:01):
you see because you joined Red Note to see what
was going on and you're seeing Chinese people and American
people interact on red note correct.

Speaker 6 (01:26:11):
Yeah, yeah, it's actually kind of lovely. The Chinese they
want to see our cats. For some reason, they've implemented
something called the cat tax, where if you're an American
you post something, they immediately get in the comments and
they're like, show me your cat.

Speaker 5 (01:26:27):
What about a dog? I'm a dog owner. I'm not
a cat person. Do I get Do I get bounced
off red note because I have a dog?

Speaker 6 (01:26:35):
No, Apparently there's something in the red note tax code
where if you don't have a cat, you can use
a dog. I even saw a horse, so that they're
pretty flexible. They're more flexible than the irs, I might add.

Speaker 10 (01:26:48):
But yeah, it's actually I mean, it's cute.

Speaker 6 (01:26:52):
I haven't seen anything like overtly political. It just the
Chinese people seem sort of like the funnel. They're like,
why are all these Americans here all the sudden? But
they're like asking for help with their English homework.

Speaker 5 (01:27:07):
It's hilarious.

Speaker 10 (01:27:09):
They're pretty cool.

Speaker 7 (01:27:10):
I mean, I you know, well, you know what's funny.

Speaker 5 (01:27:13):
In your article you talk about people, you know, asking
questions about what it's like to live in America and
my favorite hello from your new Chinese spy. These kind
of comments. But they're asking questions about Americans and life
here and culture, and I'm guessing I'm hoping at least
that some Americans are asking questions about them I mean,

(01:27:34):
is that going is it going both ways or is
the interest in one direction only?

Speaker 6 (01:27:41):
Well, Americans love talking about themselves. A lot of the
questions are like what do you think about America? Or
like what do you think about you know, so even
like Florida and you know, then the Chinese people will
be like do you live with crocodiles?

Speaker 10 (01:27:53):
And it's like, no, alligators trudge close enough. Yeah, that's
sort of thing.

Speaker 6 (01:27:57):
But yeah, I mean they're asking questions like do you
have to sell your house to uh, you know, pay
your medical bills And people are like, no, we just
didn't go to the bill collectors, you know, like it's
it's still kind of hug and cheap. But yeah, I mean,
they're they're people do seem to be like interested in
each other. The Chinese weirdly, I mean, because they have

(01:28:19):
like the Great Firewall where if you want to interact
with Chinese people are are rather Chinese people are banned
from like the apps that people all over the world
use like Instagram, Facebook, and so forth. So we haven't
really had this cultural exchange before, whereas like you know,
you go on any other social media site and you're

(01:28:42):
seeing Japanese people, Europeans that sort of thing. We've never
really interacted our Americans have never really acted with interactive
with Chinese people on this big of a scale.

Speaker 10 (01:28:53):
So it's interesting to see.

Speaker 5 (01:28:56):
And that's kind of what caught my attention because I
firmly believe eve that the Chinese Communist government will not
let this continue. Because of the Great Firewall, they have
been able to sew carefully craft what a majority of
Chinese people have access to. There are Chinese people who
have VPNs and they have ways of getting the outside web,

(01:29:18):
but for a vast majority of Chinese people that are
just going about their daily lives, they're not exposed to
any of this stuff. And this has got to be
a nightmare for the Chinese Communist government that now they
have their citizens freely interacting with the Great Satan, right
with the enemy, their geopolitical foe. I just don't I
don't know if they pull the app out of China

(01:29:41):
or if they pull the app out of the United States.
I don't know how long they let that continue. That
was my first thought about this whole thing, because to
your point, it's kind of cool, right, it's neat that
people are just communicating. I think that's great.

Speaker 10 (01:29:56):
Yeah, yeah, I mean that's a good point.

Speaker 6 (01:29:59):
One thing I will say is that I've been seeing
posts about how like if you try to look up
tiedum and square or something on red Book, like nothing
comes up. So this is still a China based app,
so it is still subject to the Chinese censorship laws.

Speaker 10 (01:30:16):
So maybe, you know, maybe the government will ban it.

Speaker 6 (01:30:22):
Maybe they won't ban it because they still roll it
in a way like they far more than they control TikTok.

Speaker 10 (01:30:29):
You know, they have a lot more direct control over
Red Book. So that's still an open question to me.

Speaker 6 (01:30:35):
I mean, I think like the American government might not
care for it too much either, because you know, the
Chinese government is authoritarian, but you do see Chinese people
just living like fairly normal, comfortable lives, and like it
doesn't if you're an American government trying to cray China

(01:30:56):
as a sort of like North Korea style, you know,
state that oppresses people and like every aspect of their lives,
like that doesn't quite come across just because as it's
the case with like even you know, the Soviet Union.
If you're a political dissident, obviously life is healthy. But
if you're just like a normal person, right, you know,

(01:31:17):
it doesn't really show. The oppression doesn't necessarily show up
in your everyday life because you've just grown up knowing
how to comply the things you can and can't say,
and it becomes like second nature. Right, So you just
see people Chinese people playing with cats and like living
in decent apartments and cooking food, and you're like, yeah,
it doesn't look like that had that over there.

Speaker 10 (01:31:35):
And so I think like the sort of hostility could
come for.

Speaker 6 (01:31:40):
Both governments whereas people understand each other more, it could
be you know, the average Chinese and the average American
being like, why are we fighting with these people they
see and just like us?

Speaker 10 (01:31:51):
Right yep.

Speaker 5 (01:31:52):
Now, I think that's a great point. And I just
wonder who's going to blink first. But hopefully this will,
this kind of back and forth will continue because it's
it's bound to be productive, right, And and it's my
understanding that TikTok itself is banned in China. Correct that, Yeah,
I mean that's ironic right there, But I I want
to tell you that. Yeah, I'm just you know, we're

(01:32:12):
just saying. I want to talk about another article you
did because it caught my eye because I totally agreed
with the headline, and the headline is porn is inevitable.
And it's about this story before the Supreme Court right
now that some states are requiring age verification on porn sites.
And you know, as a mom whose daughter is going

(01:32:33):
to have to date boys that learned about sex from pornography,
I'm concerned about this.

Speaker 9 (01:32:38):
But the the.

Speaker 5 (01:32:40):
Inevitability of porn I absolutely agree with. Like it's been
around since the beginning of photographs. I bet you there
was pornographic cave drawings at some point. We just haven't
seen them.

Speaker 10 (01:32:51):
So there are, and like it created yeah, yeah, And.

Speaker 5 (01:32:55):
So what happens here in this case and and uh,
you know, what do you think happens next if these
sorts of things go into effect?

Speaker 6 (01:33:06):
So if these laws are allowed to stand, I don't
think it'll make that much of a difference because there
are only like a few big porn sites that are
actually complying with the laws or just pulling out of
the states altogether, like porn Hub is pulled out of
most of the states that have passed these laws in Florida, Texas,

(01:33:28):
so forth. But there are still all of these like
sketchy sides, most of them based in like Europe or Asia,
that are easily accessible just through like a basic.

Speaker 10 (01:33:39):
Google search, so.

Speaker 6 (01:33:43):
You know, and even beyond that, if you live in Florida,
for example, and want to get on Pornhub, even though
it's been pulled out, you can just like get a VPN.
And so my argument was that, like, you know, if
parents want to protect their kids from that, let me
restate that. Sorry, what the what these states are doing

(01:34:05):
is giving parents a false sense of confidence that they're
fandling the problem when they simply aren't. You can still
watch porn in Florida without flashing your ID that you know,
up in front of a webcam or another one is
like you have to show your face and they use
AI to calculate your age bents on your face. You
can still access porn in all of these states without

(01:34:27):
doing that. It's probably just going to be on the
website that's going to give you a.

Speaker 10 (01:34:30):
Virus or something.

Speaker 6 (01:34:31):
Plus it's on Twitter slash effects, something like thirteen percent
of all the material on that is porn. Yeah, and
you know you don't have to provide They ask you
what your ages whenever you sign up, but you can
just lie. There's no they don't verify it anyway. So
I mean it's still a similar thing with Reddit, so

(01:34:51):
it's still going to be out there. And I think
what you know, parents should have been misled to thinking
that the problem has been solved. If you don't, if
you want to protect your kids from watching porn, you should,
you know, stop giving them unfiltered Internet access from the
time that they're like eight years old. Yeah, you know,
there are like softwares you can you can put firewalls

(01:35:12):
on your computer, like a you can filters all sorts
of different things. So you know, I think that families
have to protect themselves because the government really can't. And
the only way it could would be basically to and
VPNs implement like mass censorshiow surveillance of everybody's Internet activity,

(01:35:33):
and it would just be a Weellian I probably unconstitutional.

Speaker 5 (01:35:37):
I like the way you put it where you said
it's giving parents a false sense of security because I
think you're exactly right. I think that these laws, which
sound fantastic, solve it's it's basically playing whack a mole, right,
like you hit this one over here and another one
pops up over here. I think the better way to
handle this is have ongoing conversations, uncomfortable conversations with our

(01:35:59):
kids from the time they're like twelve years old, about
what pornography is and what it isn't, which is real sex. Okay,
my sister gave the best analogy ever, and she said
to her son, pornography is to sex like the WWE
is to wrestling. Right, It's not anything like the recro
Roman wrestling. It's just it's not. So you got to

(01:36:20):
have a more personal responsibility as a parent. Even though
these conversations are wildly, wildly unpopular. River Page is my guest.
He's with the Free Press. You're writing this fantastic. I
enjoy reading your work, and hopefully we can talk again
in the future about another article on something that I
find interesting.

Speaker 3 (01:36:37):
River absolutely, thank you so much.

Speaker 5 (01:36:40):
Mandy, all right, have a great day. That's River Page.
And oh my goodness, look who turned into Grant Smith. Hey,
Rod has turned into Grant Smith. Oh, I thought it
was all day. I've been trying to make it Thursday,
and I just looked up. I'm like, well, Grant's not
where to bolo tie, so I know it's not Thursday.
That's how you know that's my That's like, you're basically

(01:37:01):
like the sun dial for Thursday with a with a
bowlow tie. I know what day it is? Podcast? Back
your brother up?

Speaker 3 (01:37:09):
Yeah?

Speaker 5 (01:37:10):
Oh man, yet your tissues ready?

Speaker 7 (01:37:12):
Really?

Speaker 3 (01:37:13):
Yeah?

Speaker 12 (01:37:13):
We cried like I would say, I'm not one hundred
percent sure on the amount, but i would say the
over under is around five.

Speaker 9 (01:37:21):
Oh.

Speaker 12 (01:37:22):
It was like two and a half minutes. And he
started talking about his new baby girl and he's like,
I'm gonna take my glasses off, and I'm like, you
just got to keep them off for this whole episode.

Speaker 5 (01:37:30):
Having kids changes everything. Yes, I mean you know what,
I laugh. I saw one of these idiot influencers like
and she's like, you know what, here are the things
I'm not going to do for when my baby's barred.
I'm not going to get in the middle of the
night and feed my baby.

Speaker 2 (01:37:44):
I'm not.

Speaker 5 (01:37:44):
And I'm like I laughed out loud because whatever plans
you think you are making before you have a kid,
all out the window.

Speaker 12 (01:37:52):
Yeah, but it has given me more confidence that I'm
going to be a great dad because I've seen the
way my brother is has adapted.

Speaker 5 (01:37:58):
Oh, you're going to be a fantastic I'm excited for
that phase of my life.

Speaker 1 (01:38:02):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (01:38:02):
Until you don't sleep for four years, it's fine, though,
you get.

Speaker 3 (01:38:05):
Used to it.

Speaker 5 (01:38:06):
I don't really sleep anyway, So that's what it is.
That's adorable. He thinks he's fired now, Ryan Edwards, not
even the.

Speaker 6 (01:38:13):
Same exactly, No, because because you can always catch up.

Speaker 5 (01:38:17):
On a day or two.

Speaker 6 (01:38:18):
Yeah, that's the one thing with a kid, Like I remember,
you know, I work all week and you get to
the weekend, You're like, I'm so tired. Yeah, that doesn't exist.
In fact, it's harder. Yeah, it's harder on the weekends.

Speaker 7 (01:38:28):
But again, you're right.

Speaker 6 (01:38:29):
I mean, like, I go through stretches of insomnia whatever,
and it happens, but it was nothing compared to the
three year stretch.

Speaker 5 (01:38:36):
That I had with kids. Honestly, Like, you don't get
to sleep until they're like nine, really, like really really,
because anything could go wrong in the middle of the
night and he comes a kid walking up to the
side of your bed down. That's it, that's true. Everybody's
had that experience. Been all right today as well a
two fer.

Speaker 12 (01:38:55):
He thinks you can beat you guys running smack you
running always runs back.

Speaker 5 (01:39:01):
Nobody likes being right.

Speaker 7 (01:39:02):
More than midd all Bright.

Speaker 5 (01:39:07):
It is less lovely liking being right and more hating
being wrong. I like your mister Rogers sweater. There got
cambell just come back from shooting the Campbell soup commercials.
You gotta work their's original and pocketear for you. I
prefer cinnamon disc but whatever, it's fine. And now it's
time for the most exciting segment all the radio.

Speaker 3 (01:39:28):
M's gone.

Speaker 5 (01:39:30):
Which one do I in the world, in the world,
Oh no, no, that will not stand Ben, turn your
microphone off and let the pro show you how to
do it. Okay, And now it's time for the most
exciting segment on the radio of its guy world free lessons.

Speaker 6 (01:39:49):
Right there of the day we had that kind of
deep in my diaphragm of boys. It's called But once again,
based on whether you're dressed, I'm not surprised you just
shower to day.

Speaker 5 (01:40:02):
I'm a multi shower day.

Speaker 7 (01:40:05):
Yeah, he showers three four times.

Speaker 5 (01:40:07):
Not good for your skin, is it? I mean moisturizer
is you can have some kind of oils, natural oils
that are.

Speaker 12 (01:40:12):
Ideally shower and I get up, I shower after a
workout or anything else.

Speaker 5 (01:40:17):
I shower before I go to bed. You get into
before you work out. You sorry, Well, it actually doesn't
work out.

Speaker 7 (01:40:24):
So okay, I shower before I get to bed too.

Speaker 5 (01:40:28):
It religiously, I'm I'm not taking my dirty body. I'm
lucky if I just like make it to bed well.
After washing my face last night, I fell asleep in
my chair because I'm old and that's what I do.
Staggered up to my room, fell in just anyway, what
is our dad joke of the day, please? Dad joke
of the day.

Speaker 12 (01:40:46):
My wife always makes me make such a mess when
cooking her breakfast, but I'm terrified of asking her to
clean up.

Speaker 5 (01:40:53):
I've been walking on eggshells on that. It's not as
good as poleep.

Speaker 7 (01:40:59):
That was amazing.

Speaker 5 (01:41:00):
I love that, believe was against that fantastic strong. Anyway,
what is our word of the day, please. I'm not
even going to try to pronounce this one. Spell it.
I'm gonna let the computer pronounce it like motif. Oh,
I know what that is? Like motif is L E
I T M O T I S Y. Yeah, I

(01:41:22):
don't know how to define it.

Speaker 3 (01:41:23):
I do.

Speaker 5 (01:41:24):
Go ahead.

Speaker 7 (01:41:25):
You guys know what it is, going to the party.

Speaker 12 (01:41:27):
So it's a recurring theme in music that indicates something like,
for instance, the Imperial March, like in the start that
you know.

Speaker 7 (01:41:34):
What's coming because of the lebeltif there we go. Look
at that.

Speaker 5 (01:41:39):
To your question, what does the adjective vociferous mean? Be
a C C I S E R O U s vciferous,
vociferous be a cc no, no, no, I'm going to
say it means disgustingly. Jerremy, I was gonna go with
something with the like wine, like back in all or something.

(01:42:01):
You are much closer than I am. You gotta guess
is closer but not right. It's a botanical term that
describes something that produces berries. So you're in there in
the wrong part of the planting over here, you know. Yeah,
we'll give you sixty fourth credit for that. Then I'll
take it today. See right, the words? Okay, what is

(01:42:27):
our jeopardy category? And remember you have to say your
name first and then answer the question in the form
of a question. There'll be no mercy for that, Ben,
Absolutely the offender on that. Now that the ground rules
have been laid, you're ready for the category. Ready for
words and backwards.

Speaker 12 (01:42:45):
In a movie, it's the narrative that supplies a character's past, Manny,
what's a backstory?

Speaker 5 (01:42:50):
Correct?

Speaker 3 (01:42:50):
One?

Speaker 2 (01:42:51):
Zero?

Speaker 5 (01:42:52):
One could be rainy with a chance of hail. Mandy,
what's the weather forecast? Correct? Now I got the category. Guys,
ready to play back.

Speaker 12 (01:43:04):
I'm like, all right, what's called Obamacare is formally the
Patient Protection and this type of Care Act?

Speaker 5 (01:43:14):
Mandy, what is affordable Correct? Not at all actually true,
but whatever, it's fine.

Speaker 7 (01:43:21):
Moving on.

Speaker 5 (01:43:22):
Type of work. Oh, this is gonna be a tough one.
That's scene here. Let's skip that one.

Speaker 12 (01:43:28):
The next one, Yeah, a screen behind the catcher and
baseball or a term for the catcher himself.

Speaker 5 (01:43:34):
Ryan, what's a backstop?

Speaker 3 (01:43:36):
Yeah?

Speaker 5 (01:43:37):
Right, Okay, we're gonna have to switch categories. The last one.

Speaker 12 (01:43:41):
This is the movie Superhero who kneels before Zo Superman?

Speaker 5 (01:43:48):
Correct?

Speaker 3 (01:43:49):
What a win?

Speaker 9 (01:43:52):
You know?

Speaker 6 (01:43:52):
Ben?

Speaker 5 (01:43:52):
Funny? Sorry, Ryan has a point right there. I have
four points right there. But there's oddly end of the
b A for all bright Ben all right zero, there's
no points know the vocabulary.

Speaker 10 (01:44:05):
There it is.

Speaker 5 (01:44:06):
Okay, whatever makes you feel better, man, what's coming up
on K Sports?

Speaker 6 (01:44:09):
Oh, we had all sorts of fun stuff if we
had the press conferences today, the end of year press conferences.

Speaker 5 (01:44:14):
So I saw Peyton's confidence and beating the chiefs.

Speaker 11 (01:44:16):
That was good.

Speaker 6 (01:44:16):
Yeah, at the very just sort of snuck that in there,
didn't he. We We all kind of like looked at
each other like.

Speaker 5 (01:44:21):
Did he just say what I think he did?

Speaker 9 (01:44:23):
Yeah?

Speaker 5 (01:44:23):
That he did in a couple of.

Speaker 6 (01:44:25):
Moments in the press conference where he had kind of
some blast party shot. George was great as always, great,
pedal was funny. He had a moment about the the
uniforms that oh, yeah, it's very in there.

Speaker 3 (01:44:38):
He was.

Speaker 7 (01:44:38):
He was talking about like, hey, what what was the
reaction to it, and he said, well.

Speaker 6 (01:44:42):
You know, mixed, as you'd imagine. Everybody loved the throwbacks.
It's like there was one combination I really didn't like whatsoever.
And we'll never do that again, Larry, you never hear that.

Speaker 5 (01:44:50):
Nice? So good a K Sports coming up next. We'll
be back tomorrow. Keep it right here on K