April 29, 2025 • 20 mins
WHO IS MIKE O'DONNELL? He's a dude I follow on X whose bio says this: I've spent much of my working life in education and economic development. An economist by training and entrepreneurial system developer by practice, I closely monitor and report statistics related to key economic and entrepreneurial trends.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
A big, big, big day is always better with statistics,
statistics being.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
What they are.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
I found, and I don't even know how I stumbled
upon Mike o'donald's Twitter feed. But here is this man,
and I did not know him at all. We literally
just met on our zoom call right before we started this.
But I started to follow him because he posts very
interesting graphs and statistics, and some of them are not
necessarily very flattering for Colorado. And after I checked his
work a few times, and I did check his work
(00:27):
a few times, I thought, you know what, this guy
seems to know what he's talking about. And not only that,
he's putting it on Twitter with no expectation of anyone
really paying attention to it. But what he does is
so fascinating. I wanted to amplify his platform. So I
have invited Mike o'donald to come on the show with
us today.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
And here he is. Mike. First of all, welcome to
the program.
Speaker 3 (00:51):
Thank you very much, Manie, it's an honor to be
on your show.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
Well, tell me a little bit about yourself, because here
you've got these incredible statistics, and where did this come from?
How did you get to be the man posting things
on Twitter, super nerdy economic stuff and more.
Speaker 3 (01:11):
Well, I am a super nerdy economic person, but really
a lot of the statistics that I follow and track
really come out of my lifetime career, which is really
working with small businesses. I grew up in my dad's
my family owned business, but I've always had a passion
for small business. For twenty years here in Colorado, I
ran a group called Colorado Landing Source. We did a
(01:33):
lot of loans to small businesses all over the state,
and following trends, you know, whether they're national or whether
they're state specific, can really help you when you're working
with small businesses. And I still do a lot of
that in my declining years as well.
Speaker 2 (01:50):
So you mentioned trends.
Speaker 1 (01:52):
If you had to give a sort of a bird's
eye view of the business trend for Colorado, and we'll
start in twenty ten and we'll take it to twenty
twenty six, what would that line look like for you?
Speaker 3 (02:09):
It's again it's Colorado, and actually moved here in two thousand,
so I'm still a newcomer to Colorado. But Colorado has
always had the reputation of it being a very entrepreneurial state.
All of the jobs in Colorado we now have thirty
years or of history have been created by young businesses,
startup businesses less than twelve months old, except in six years.
(02:31):
Of those thirty years, five of those years correspond with
national recessions. The last year of the six year was
actually up until the end of March twenty four, didn't
correspond with a national recession. So when we look at
what's happened in businesses, we as a state have always
been dependent on entrepreneurs, new businesses, startups. That seems to
(02:54):
be becoming less of a focus in Colorado. And part
of my message shouting to the world through social media
or just out the window out where I live here,
is that we need to be more focused on businesses
because businesses create jobs. The jobs create play the taxes
in Colorado, and now that we're not as focused on
(03:15):
helping businesses grow successful at jobs in this state, the
states kind of run into a little bit of trouble
in the future if they're planning on increasing employment. Texts
as all those sort of things, it states to well.
Speaker 1 (03:28):
You don't ever dip your toe, or maybe you have it,
I just have not seen it. You may mention that
for instance, I was looking at the suicide rate in Colorado,
the latest statistic you have out about that, and in
that you say, and this is because the Democrat controlled
Colorado legislature is more interested in promoting mental illness than
treating it. But for the most part, you don't make
(03:48):
political statements. You just kind of put the numbers out
there and let them speak for themselves. Are you as
an advotive follower as the politics of all this, or
or on the side of the results of the politics,
if that makes sense.
Speaker 3 (04:04):
Well, I see the results. I see the fact that
we do have. Now the legislature here in Colorado isn't
very economically aware or doesn't seem to focus on the future.
There's a sort of perspective of being a kid in
a candy shop. I don't if that expression means anything
to anyone anymore, but essentially they seem to be And
(04:25):
this has happened really since COVID, when the budget in
Colorado almost doubled but our population stayed pretty much the same.
And now we've got this mentality of let's go out
and spend as much money as we can. Let's go
out and add more fees. You can't call them taxes anymore.
Colorado was now the sixth most regulated state when it
(04:47):
comes to small businesses. That didn't used to be the case.
So we're just creating things in expectation of revenue coming
in to pay for whatever it is that they think
is exciting to do as opposed to the isaics, And
perhaps I don't explain that well. So I'm hoping that
that And I've got a few people that have picked
me up now on Twitter who follow me and sometimes
(05:09):
requote my stats. But it's just important that people and
power in the state understand, you know, where we're heading
based on where we've been, at least the trends.
Speaker 1 (05:19):
You know, what are the parts of economics and the
study of economics that I always think is kind of
interesting is the human part of it. Because economists, though
they they will factor in human reaction to parts of
it that they often miss the on the human reaction
to whatever these policies are.
Speaker 2 (05:36):
And when I look at what.
Speaker 1 (05:37):
The Democrats are doing and legislating and regulating, there seems
to be an assumption that they can continue to do
whatever it is they want to do to business, and
business will not react, business will not leave the state.
Business will not make decisions about where to place their
next you know, headquarters or their next factory. In your
(05:58):
work with small business, how reactionary is small business to
these changes or are they kind of locked in place
and stuck here any way?
Speaker 2 (06:08):
Proving the Democrats right.
Speaker 3 (06:11):
Yeah, No, it's very very important when we look at it.
Where entrepreneurs want to start a business, they will start
a business where they really want to live, but they
want to live in a place where it's affordable to live.
You know. The Buer of Labor Statistics does track business
migration trends and Colorado was now number six in terms
of the states where businesses are moving out of the state.
(06:32):
And we see that and that obviously has impacts on
people wanting to move into the state. So when we
look at things like new haul statistics, we are seeing
fewer people moving, more people moving out of the state
than moving to the state. We haven't seen that impact
on housing prices yet, but we are starting to see,
you know, something is changing in the state, and it
(06:53):
has to do a lot with the policies that are
coming down from Denver.
Speaker 2 (06:57):
So, Mike, when I talk to people and I'm going to.
Speaker 1 (07:01):
I've been mulling this over whether to make this a
topic on the show, but I think it sort of
fits in this context. It is very frustrating for me
because I've been watching politics professionally for twenty years now,
this is my job. It's very frustrating for me when
I see people struggling. I see people, you know, talking
about how tough things are and how housing is expensive
(07:22):
and food is expensive and restaurants are expensive, but then
they keep voting the same way, and that for me
has been a huge frustration.
Speaker 2 (07:31):
When you put out these statistics.
Speaker 1 (07:33):
I just want you to know you are essentially providing ammunition.
You are providing not literally ammunition. I have to clarify
that for the low IQ people who listen to the show,
rhetorical ammunition that I think the Democrats, I mean, excuse me,
the Republicans should use every one of these statistics that
you publish because they're all the results of policy. They're
(07:53):
all the result of choices being made by politicians. What
do you think, out of everything you've been looking looking
out lately, is the most ripe to help sway public
opinion when it comes to making different choices at.
Speaker 2 (08:08):
The ballot box.
Speaker 3 (08:10):
Yeah, and that's a really good point. I think sadly,
the trends that I'm showing is that Colorado is really
heading towards sort of an implosion of sorts, and that
of course, or perhaps change people's minds. But we know
that under the Biden administration and the Police administration, between
twenty one and twenty four, Colorado residents had the highest
inflation rate of any people in any state. Colorado households
(08:33):
own more money than people in any other state, even California.
The only exception is Washington, DC. Colorado in the last
fifteen months has only created five hundred jobs. You know,
last month you might have probably covered on your show
the fact that the nation created two hundred and eighty
eight thousand jobs in the month of March, Colorado lost
three and a half thousand jobs. So essentially, you know
(08:54):
that the signs are there that the economy of nationally
isn't great, that it's much stronger than Colorado's. And the
only reason that Colorado's economy isn't as strong is because
of the policies that are being imposed on us. You know, I,
as a tax bay, I don't want to have to
pay for someone's medical procedure. All the things that are
(09:16):
sort of being feed on us. Even as I don't
know the details, you probably follow this, but the way
to reduce the cost of insurance in Colorado is add
an insurance premium on the cost of motor vehicle insurance.
Whereas if you look at the fact that the motive
thefts are down in January and February and Colorado and
the cost of insurance is coming down from the CPI,
(09:37):
so you know that if the politicians would be actually
up to date with some of the statistics, they wouldn't
be trying to create policies that don't address an issue
that doesn't exist anymore. Stuff like that.
Speaker 2 (09:47):
Well, I mean, like.
Speaker 1 (09:48):
The insurance thing is a perfect example, because not only
do they want to add a fee to our insurance premiums,
they're then going to use the fee for something that
the insurance in history has said is not a driver
of high insurance rates. So they're going to fix a
problem that doesn't actually have anything to do with insurance
(10:09):
costs by charging us more and telling us that it's
going to bring our pricing down. Maybe they do know
that prices are on the way down, but this way
they can claim credit and still make more money for
the state. I mean, it's it's kind of absurd, Mike.
I want to ask you, were you following this closely
back after the Great Recession in two thousand and eight
and two thousand and nine, because I've long had a theory,
(10:31):
and I looked at Colorado for a long time, even
before I moved here, because Colorado recovered far more quickly
than many many, many other states after two thousand and
eight and two thousand and nine. And I believe that
the reason Colorado recovered so quickly is because of tabor limitations.
It prevented the government from overspending during the Great Recession.
(10:53):
Therefore they were able to bounce back more nimbly. What
are your thoughts on that?
Speaker 3 (11:00):
And I was looking at stuff back there. I moved
here just before the dot com bubble burst, and so
that affected Colorado worse than most states. As the result
of that, Colorado became a very diversified economy. We didn't
become so dependent on telecommunications like we were, and the
Colorado's economy was very well prepared moving into that recession.
We were late going into it and we were early
(11:22):
coming out of it compared to most states, and that
was the function of the fact that we were focused
on business diversification strength. You're right, we weren't overspending, we
weren't doing all sorts of boondog or things. We actually
fixed the roads, and the roads were in pretty good
condition back in the twenty teens or the early twenty
to the ten years before the twenty teens, So all
of that was strong and we came out of that.
(11:43):
Now we are very poorly positioned for the next recession,
which may be sooner than we think. In Colorado might
have its own recession, but we are very poorly prepared
for that. So we'll be early in and we'll be
late out. And that all has to do with ending
or trying to overspend. But TABOR has actually kept us
strong through that lost recession. But it's not going to
(12:05):
help us through this next one because we have fees
everywhere now.
Speaker 1 (12:08):
And they've just given away our table refunds, so we
don't even get our money back. A Texter just asked
this question, Mike, how many of the jobs last lost
last month were related to government layoffs like park service, BLM,
et cetera. And I want to ask a second part
of that question, And what's been surprising to me is
the number of jobs during the end of the Biden
(12:30):
administration that were government jobs. So did we even create
that many private sector jobs? And are these losses related
to government jobs or where did they come from?
Speaker 3 (12:41):
Now, the losses that we see in Colorado don't seem
to be related to government jobs. We have I think the
number is, off the top of my head, just under
forty thousand federal employees in the state of Colorado. But
over the last couple of years in Colorado, the only
jobs that are being created have been in healthcare. Apparently
we're very SIGNI yeah, more so in local government, but
(13:02):
a lot in state government as well. So essentially we're
creating jobs there and we don't really have a stronger basis.
We have losing jobs, and of course some headmin services,
you know, some of the manufacturing things, but we're not
really even on a national level. I think we only
lost twelve thousand federal government jobs in the month of
March when I check there, So we haven't seen the
(13:25):
wave that everyone's protesting about the government being gattered and downsize.
That isn't reflected in the stats yet in Colorado. Again,
if you've got kids or grandkids and they want to
grow up and get a job. Based on the current numbers,
you either have to be in healthcare or you have
to work for the government if you want to have
a job in Colorado. Because those are the only new
jobs being created in the state.
Speaker 1 (13:46):
Oh, that's depressing because those jobs don't create anything.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
They don't create a new.
Speaker 1 (13:50):
Job, they don't create a product, they don't have the
opportunity for growth. They're just a drain on taxpayer dollars
in the long run. I mean, don't get me wrong,
they'll provide some sort of service, but they're just a
fiscal drain on everybody else. This is an interesting text message, Mandy.
I've had my bakery cafe for twenty one years, starting
in Aurora and moving to Denver. The over regulation and
(14:12):
cost of doing business are going to drive us out
of business. Minimum wage up one dollar per year four years.
Thanks not the Denver City Council, the Family Act mandated
for a one K plan, insurance, property taxes, landlord passes
those on to tenants. You know, policies matter. Give us
a break, please, this is not a small business friendly state.
(14:34):
That from Chef k is this what you're hearing from
other small business owners that you know, Mike.
Speaker 3 (14:42):
Yeah, and again that's the challenge is that we still
have a lot of startups in Colorado, about twenty four
thousand startups in the last twelve months that we've tracked it,
and I on average each create about three and a
half jobs, and they created eighty five thousand odd jobs
the last twelve month period. But existing business has lost
eighty seven thousand jobs. So that's the challenge is that
(15:06):
businesses that have already started and are ramped up and
have been there for five, ten, twenty one years are
just finding that they're being put upon so much to
pay for projects that don't really benefit them and their
community that they just don't necessarily need one to support
those sorts of activities. You know, Denver has gotten a
little out of control, if I can be so bold,
(15:27):
and a cost of tax and sales taxes that they're
really really high now, so you know, they supply and
demand if prices keep going up. In Colorado, as I said,
it's been had the highest inflation rate of any states
and have the highest debts, so people don't have as
much money to spend on the things that they used
to spend on, and that's all pushing on, pushing down
(15:48):
demand for products. At the same time as that, the
people have extra costs which increase the cost of providing
those products. So it is becoming challenging and it would
be really nice if there was someone in power in
the state that actually understood business, especially small business.
Speaker 1 (16:05):
So let me ask you this, have you how do
you decide what to dig into?
Speaker 3 (16:12):
I'm a very curious person. I'm part of it is
based I do a lot of research based on Vieer
of labor statistics, so things that fascinate me. You know,
the savings rate in the United States is about a
third of what it is in Europe. The only country
in the world that has the lower savings trate is Astray,
where I'm originally from, and so people there are even
more put upon than they are here. I don't see
(16:33):
that Darta of Colorado. But I'm just fascinated by how
jobs grow, how unemployment happens, where jobs are being created,
where they're actually being lost. I'm just I have a
short attention span, so I like to look at a
lot of different things, and so that's part of my fascination.
But My overrating objective is that I run a little
nonprofit that provides early stage financing to small businesses on
(16:56):
the Kiva platform, which is you know, crowd lending I
really like. But I'm always watching the entrepreneurial ecosystem in
the state of Colorado to see where the trends are
because you know, many people that I've known in the
state have moved to other states just because it's gotten
too hard here, and I don't want to do that.
(17:16):
So I'm trying to do what I can to try
and shape directional policy to get people aware of the
direction we're heading in and where we will go unless
we do change.
Speaker 1 (17:26):
Directional little So have you discovered any data This is
my final question because we're almost out of time that
shocked you that was either so bad or so good
that you went, wow, that's interesting, not in a.
Speaker 2 (17:38):
Good way or maybe in a good way.
Speaker 3 (17:41):
Well, it just fascinates me how often Colorado is in
the top ten. So I've always heard you mentioned the
suicide rates here. I was just looking back at the
suicide rates and Colorado has been a top ten states
for suicide rates since twenty fourteen based on the CDC
data and I've been trying to work out why the
Colorado Health Department says altitude has a lot to do
(18:03):
with that, but I can see a report that's medical
called it back in twenty eleven that has nothing to
do with it. So, so what's going on in Colorado?
And the only thing that most of the experts, and
I don't consider myself an expert, but is that there's
not as much access to the availability of assistance to
people who are you know, distressed or mentally help help
(18:25):
mentally not healthy in this state. So, you know, there
are lots of things I don't have the answers to,
but statistics fascinate me. The fact that we've created five
hundred and sixty three jobs in the last fifteen months
at the same time as our unemployment has grown by
whatever it is by twenty you know, by thirty nine
hundred and ninety five jobs, means that you know, we're
not creating jobs, we are creating a lot of unemployment.
(18:47):
It means that the state and employers are going to
have to pay more for unemployment taxes. We're not bringing
in the new revenue from new peril taxes, so we
are heading towards a little sort of you know, a
cliff that the LEGISLI you might fall off and the
deficit this seed might be a lot less, and I
think it is.
Speaker 1 (19:04):
Well, they're already talking about their deficit next year being
even worse. But the reality is, And Mike, if you
could do a handied andy graph of this, I would
appreciate it. If you could just do the Colorado budget
number from twenty ten through now. I think people in
this state that have heard for the last few months
we've got a one point two billion dollar deficit, they're
(19:24):
going to think that this year's budget is one point
two billion dollars less than last year's And I know
that to be false, and I'm.
Speaker 2 (19:33):
Sure you do too.
Speaker 1 (19:34):
So if you could do that graph for me, I
would share it far and wide, just to let people
know what the hard numbers say. We have plenty of money,
they're just spending it very, very poorly.
Speaker 3 (19:44):
In my estimation, Yeah, depending way too much. Again, the
population is flat, it's slightly declining a little bit, and
we shouldn't be spending more and more on the same
population each year. They could fix the roads that would
be nice out that way will be nice.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
And then what we'll do how would we get a
new set of tires when we blow them out on
a pothole. Mike is, Mike o'donald is my Mike o'donald
is my guest. He not only has an x feed
that is absolutely outstanding that you should follow, he also
has a Patreon to uh for a longer form columns
that he does, and I would strongly recommend you follow him. Mike,
(20:18):
we will have you on again for sure. Keep up
the good work because I am making a war book
for Republican candidates that is just full of news stories
and data and things like that. And your work is
already quoted multiple times in my war books. So keep
up the good work. And it's so nice to virtually
meet you today.
Speaker 3 (20:40):
Thank you so much, Manny, and honor and a pleasure
to take care
A big, big, big day is always better with statistics,
statistics being.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
What they are.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
I found, and I don't even know how I stumbled
upon Mike o'donald's Twitter feed. But here is this man,
and I did not know him at all. We literally
just met on our zoom call right before we started this.
But I started to follow him because he posts very
interesting graphs and statistics, and some of them are not
necessarily very flattering for Colorado. And after I checked his
work a few times, and I did check his work
(00:27):
a few times, I thought, you know what, this guy
seems to know what he's talking about. And not only that,
he's putting it on Twitter with no expectation of anyone
really paying attention to it. But what he does is
so fascinating. I wanted to amplify his platform. So I
have invited Mike o'donald to come on the show with
us today.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
And here he is. Mike. First of all, welcome to
the program.
Speaker 3 (00:51):
Thank you very much, Manie, it's an honor to be
on your show.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
Well, tell me a little bit about yourself, because here
you've got these incredible statistics, and where did this come from?
How did you get to be the man posting things
on Twitter, super nerdy economic stuff and more.
Speaker 3 (01:11):
Well, I am a super nerdy economic person, but really
a lot of the statistics that I follow and track
really come out of my lifetime career, which is really
working with small businesses. I grew up in my dad's
my family owned business, but I've always had a passion
for small business. For twenty years here in Colorado, I
ran a group called Colorado Landing Source. We did a
(01:33):
lot of loans to small businesses all over the state,
and following trends, you know, whether they're national or whether
they're state specific, can really help you when you're working
with small businesses. And I still do a lot of
that in my declining years as well.
Speaker 2 (01:50):
So you mentioned trends.
Speaker 1 (01:52):
If you had to give a sort of a bird's
eye view of the business trend for Colorado, and we'll
start in twenty ten and we'll take it to twenty
twenty six, what would that line look like for you?
Speaker 3 (02:09):
It's again it's Colorado, and actually moved here in two thousand,
so I'm still a newcomer to Colorado. But Colorado has
always had the reputation of it being a very entrepreneurial state.
All of the jobs in Colorado we now have thirty
years or of history have been created by young businesses,
startup businesses less than twelve months old, except in six years.
(02:31):
Of those thirty years, five of those years correspond with
national recessions. The last year of the six year was
actually up until the end of March twenty four, didn't
correspond with a national recession. So when we look at
what's happened in businesses, we as a state have always
been dependent on entrepreneurs, new businesses, startups. That seems to
(02:54):
be becoming less of a focus in Colorado. And part
of my message shouting to the world through social media
or just out the window out where I live here,
is that we need to be more focused on businesses
because businesses create jobs. The jobs create play the taxes
in Colorado, and now that we're not as focused on
(03:15):
helping businesses grow successful at jobs in this state, the
states kind of run into a little bit of trouble
in the future if they're planning on increasing employment. Texts
as all those sort of things, it states to well.
Speaker 1 (03:28):
You don't ever dip your toe, or maybe you have it,
I just have not seen it. You may mention that
for instance, I was looking at the suicide rate in Colorado,
the latest statistic you have out about that, and in
that you say, and this is because the Democrat controlled
Colorado legislature is more interested in promoting mental illness than
treating it. But for the most part, you don't make
(03:48):
political statements. You just kind of put the numbers out
there and let them speak for themselves. Are you as
an advotive follower as the politics of all this, or
or on the side of the results of the politics,
if that makes sense.
Speaker 3 (04:04):
Well, I see the results. I see the fact that
we do have. Now the legislature here in Colorado isn't
very economically aware or doesn't seem to focus on the future.
There's a sort of perspective of being a kid in
a candy shop. I don't if that expression means anything
to anyone anymore, but essentially they seem to be And
(04:25):
this has happened really since COVID, when the budget in
Colorado almost doubled but our population stayed pretty much the same.
And now we've got this mentality of let's go out
and spend as much money as we can. Let's go
out and add more fees. You can't call them taxes anymore.
Colorado was now the sixth most regulated state when it
(04:47):
comes to small businesses. That didn't used to be the case.
So we're just creating things in expectation of revenue coming
in to pay for whatever it is that they think
is exciting to do as opposed to the isaics, And
perhaps I don't explain that well. So I'm hoping that
that And I've got a few people that have picked
me up now on Twitter who follow me and sometimes
(05:09):
requote my stats. But it's just important that people and
power in the state understand, you know, where we're heading
based on where we've been, at least the trends.
Speaker 1 (05:19):
You know, what are the parts of economics and the
study of economics that I always think is kind of
interesting is the human part of it. Because economists, though
they they will factor in human reaction to parts of
it that they often miss the on the human reaction
to whatever these policies are.
Speaker 2 (05:36):
And when I look at what.
Speaker 1 (05:37):
The Democrats are doing and legislating and regulating, there seems
to be an assumption that they can continue to do
whatever it is they want to do to business, and
business will not react, business will not leave the state.
Business will not make decisions about where to place their
next you know, headquarters or their next factory. In your
(05:58):
work with small business, how reactionary is small business to
these changes or are they kind of locked in place
and stuck here any way?
Speaker 2 (06:08):
Proving the Democrats right.
Speaker 3 (06:11):
Yeah, No, it's very very important when we look at it.
Where entrepreneurs want to start a business, they will start
a business where they really want to live, but they
want to live in a place where it's affordable to live.
You know. The Buer of Labor Statistics does track business
migration trends and Colorado was now number six in terms
of the states where businesses are moving out of the state.
(06:32):
And we see that and that obviously has impacts on
people wanting to move into the state. So when we
look at things like new haul statistics, we are seeing
fewer people moving, more people moving out of the state
than moving to the state. We haven't seen that impact
on housing prices yet, but we are starting to see,
you know, something is changing in the state, and it
(06:53):
has to do a lot with the policies that are
coming down from Denver.
Speaker 2 (06:57):
So, Mike, when I talk to people and I'm going to.
Speaker 1 (07:01):
I've been mulling this over whether to make this a
topic on the show, but I think it sort of
fits in this context. It is very frustrating for me
because I've been watching politics professionally for twenty years now,
this is my job. It's very frustrating for me when
I see people struggling. I see people, you know, talking
about how tough things are and how housing is expensive
(07:22):
and food is expensive and restaurants are expensive, but then
they keep voting the same way, and that for me
has been a huge frustration.
Speaker 2 (07:31):
When you put out these statistics.
Speaker 1 (07:33):
I just want you to know you are essentially providing ammunition.
You are providing not literally ammunition. I have to clarify
that for the low IQ people who listen to the show,
rhetorical ammunition that I think the Democrats, I mean, excuse me,
the Republicans should use every one of these statistics that
you publish because they're all the results of policy. They're
(07:53):
all the result of choices being made by politicians. What
do you think, out of everything you've been looking looking
out lately, is the most ripe to help sway public
opinion when it comes to making different choices at.
Speaker 2 (08:08):
The ballot box.
Speaker 3 (08:10):
Yeah, and that's a really good point. I think sadly,
the trends that I'm showing is that Colorado is really
heading towards sort of an implosion of sorts, and that
of course, or perhaps change people's minds. But we know
that under the Biden administration and the Police administration, between
twenty one and twenty four, Colorado residents had the highest
inflation rate of any people in any state. Colorado households
(08:33):
own more money than people in any other state, even California.
The only exception is Washington, DC. Colorado in the last
fifteen months has only created five hundred jobs. You know,
last month you might have probably covered on your show
the fact that the nation created two hundred and eighty
eight thousand jobs in the month of March, Colorado lost
three and a half thousand jobs. So essentially, you know
(08:54):
that the signs are there that the economy of nationally
isn't great, that it's much stronger than Colorado's. And the
only reason that Colorado's economy isn't as strong is because
of the policies that are being imposed on us. You know, I,
as a tax bay, I don't want to have to
pay for someone's medical procedure. All the things that are
(09:16):
sort of being feed on us. Even as I don't
know the details, you probably follow this, but the way
to reduce the cost of insurance in Colorado is add
an insurance premium on the cost of motor vehicle insurance.
Whereas if you look at the fact that the motive
thefts are down in January and February and Colorado and
the cost of insurance is coming down from the CPI,
(09:37):
so you know that if the politicians would be actually
up to date with some of the statistics, they wouldn't
be trying to create policies that don't address an issue
that doesn't exist anymore. Stuff like that.
Speaker 2 (09:47):
Well, I mean, like.
Speaker 1 (09:48):
The insurance thing is a perfect example, because not only
do they want to add a fee to our insurance premiums,
they're then going to use the fee for something that
the insurance in history has said is not a driver
of high insurance rates. So they're going to fix a
problem that doesn't actually have anything to do with insurance
(10:09):
costs by charging us more and telling us that it's
going to bring our pricing down. Maybe they do know
that prices are on the way down, but this way
they can claim credit and still make more money for
the state. I mean, it's it's kind of absurd, Mike.
I want to ask you, were you following this closely
back after the Great Recession in two thousand and eight
and two thousand and nine, because I've long had a theory,
(10:31):
and I looked at Colorado for a long time, even
before I moved here, because Colorado recovered far more quickly
than many many, many other states after two thousand and
eight and two thousand and nine. And I believe that
the reason Colorado recovered so quickly is because of tabor limitations.
It prevented the government from overspending during the Great Recession.
(10:53):
Therefore they were able to bounce back more nimbly. What
are your thoughts on that?
Speaker 3 (11:00):
And I was looking at stuff back there. I moved
here just before the dot com bubble burst, and so
that affected Colorado worse than most states. As the result
of that, Colorado became a very diversified economy. We didn't
become so dependent on telecommunications like we were, and the
Colorado's economy was very well prepared moving into that recession.
We were late going into it and we were early
(11:22):
coming out of it compared to most states, and that
was the function of the fact that we were focused
on business diversification strength. You're right, we weren't overspending, we
weren't doing all sorts of boondog or things. We actually
fixed the roads, and the roads were in pretty good
condition back in the twenty teens or the early twenty
to the ten years before the twenty teens, So all
of that was strong and we came out of that.
(11:43):
Now we are very poorly positioned for the next recession,
which may be sooner than we think. In Colorado might
have its own recession, but we are very poorly prepared
for that. So we'll be early in and we'll be
late out. And that all has to do with ending
or trying to overspend. But TABOR has actually kept us
strong through that lost recession. But it's not going to
(12:05):
help us through this next one because we have fees
everywhere now.
Speaker 1 (12:08):
And they've just given away our table refunds, so we
don't even get our money back. A Texter just asked
this question, Mike, how many of the jobs last lost
last month were related to government layoffs like park service, BLM,
et cetera. And I want to ask a second part
of that question, And what's been surprising to me is
the number of jobs during the end of the Biden
(12:30):
administration that were government jobs. So did we even create
that many private sector jobs? And are these losses related
to government jobs or where did they come from?
Speaker 3 (12:41):
Now, the losses that we see in Colorado don't seem
to be related to government jobs. We have I think the
number is, off the top of my head, just under
forty thousand federal employees in the state of Colorado. But
over the last couple of years in Colorado, the only
jobs that are being created have been in healthcare. Apparently
we're very SIGNI yeah, more so in local government, but
(13:02):
a lot in state government as well. So essentially we're
creating jobs there and we don't really have a stronger basis.
We have losing jobs, and of course some headmin services,
you know, some of the manufacturing things, but we're not
really even on a national level. I think we only
lost twelve thousand federal government jobs in the month of
March when I check there, So we haven't seen the
(13:25):
wave that everyone's protesting about the government being gattered and downsize.
That isn't reflected in the stats yet in Colorado. Again,
if you've got kids or grandkids and they want to
grow up and get a job. Based on the current numbers,
you either have to be in healthcare or you have
to work for the government if you want to have
a job in Colorado. Because those are the only new
jobs being created in the state.
Speaker 1 (13:46):
Oh, that's depressing because those jobs don't create anything.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
They don't create a new.
Speaker 1 (13:50):
Job, they don't create a product, they don't have the
opportunity for growth. They're just a drain on taxpayer dollars
in the long run. I mean, don't get me wrong,
they'll provide some sort of service, but they're just a
fiscal drain on everybody else. This is an interesting text message, Mandy.
I've had my bakery cafe for twenty one years, starting
in Aurora and moving to Denver. The over regulation and
(14:12):
cost of doing business are going to drive us out
of business. Minimum wage up one dollar per year four years.
Thanks not the Denver City Council, the Family Act mandated
for a one K plan, insurance, property taxes, landlord passes
those on to tenants. You know, policies matter. Give us
a break, please, this is not a small business friendly state.
(14:34):
That from Chef k is this what you're hearing from
other small business owners that you know, Mike.
Speaker 3 (14:42):
Yeah, and again that's the challenge is that we still
have a lot of startups in Colorado, about twenty four
thousand startups in the last twelve months that we've tracked it,
and I on average each create about three and a
half jobs, and they created eighty five thousand odd jobs
the last twelve month period. But existing business has lost
eighty seven thousand jobs. So that's the challenge is that
(15:06):
businesses that have already started and are ramped up and
have been there for five, ten, twenty one years are
just finding that they're being put upon so much to
pay for projects that don't really benefit them and their
community that they just don't necessarily need one to support
those sorts of activities. You know, Denver has gotten a
little out of control, if I can be so bold,
(15:27):
and a cost of tax and sales taxes that they're
really really high now, so you know, they supply and
demand if prices keep going up. In Colorado, as I said,
it's been had the highest inflation rate of any states
and have the highest debts, so people don't have as
much money to spend on the things that they used
to spend on, and that's all pushing on, pushing down
(15:48):
demand for products. At the same time as that, the
people have extra costs which increase the cost of providing
those products. So it is becoming challenging and it would
be really nice if there was someone in power in
the state that actually understood business, especially small business.
Speaker 1 (16:05):
So let me ask you this, have you how do
you decide what to dig into?
Speaker 3 (16:12):
I'm a very curious person. I'm part of it is
based I do a lot of research based on Vieer
of labor statistics, so things that fascinate me. You know,
the savings rate in the United States is about a
third of what it is in Europe. The only country
in the world that has the lower savings trate is Astray,
where I'm originally from, and so people there are even
more put upon than they are here. I don't see
(16:33):
that Darta of Colorado. But I'm just fascinated by how
jobs grow, how unemployment happens, where jobs are being created,
where they're actually being lost. I'm just I have a
short attention span, so I like to look at a
lot of different things, and so that's part of my fascination.
But My overrating objective is that I run a little
nonprofit that provides early stage financing to small businesses on
(16:56):
the Kiva platform, which is you know, crowd lending I
really like. But I'm always watching the entrepreneurial ecosystem in
the state of Colorado to see where the trends are
because you know, many people that I've known in the
state have moved to other states just because it's gotten
too hard here, and I don't want to do that.
(17:16):
So I'm trying to do what I can to try
and shape directional policy to get people aware of the
direction we're heading in and where we will go unless
we do change.
Speaker 1 (17:26):
Directional little So have you discovered any data This is
my final question because we're almost out of time that
shocked you that was either so bad or so good
that you went, wow, that's interesting, not in a.
Speaker 2 (17:38):
Good way or maybe in a good way.
Speaker 3 (17:41):
Well, it just fascinates me how often Colorado is in
the top ten. So I've always heard you mentioned the
suicide rates here. I was just looking back at the
suicide rates and Colorado has been a top ten states
for suicide rates since twenty fourteen based on the CDC
data and I've been trying to work out why the
Colorado Health Department says altitude has a lot to do
(18:03):
with that, but I can see a report that's medical
called it back in twenty eleven that has nothing to
do with it. So, so what's going on in Colorado?
And the only thing that most of the experts, and
I don't consider myself an expert, but is that there's
not as much access to the availability of assistance to
people who are you know, distressed or mentally help help
(18:25):
mentally not healthy in this state. So, you know, there
are lots of things I don't have the answers to,
but statistics fascinate me. The fact that we've created five
hundred and sixty three jobs in the last fifteen months
at the same time as our unemployment has grown by
whatever it is by twenty you know, by thirty nine
hundred and ninety five jobs, means that you know, we're
not creating jobs, we are creating a lot of unemployment.
(18:47):
It means that the state and employers are going to
have to pay more for unemployment taxes. We're not bringing
in the new revenue from new peril taxes, so we
are heading towards a little sort of you know, a
cliff that the LEGISLI you might fall off and the
deficit this seed might be a lot less, and I
think it is.
Speaker 1 (19:04):
Well, they're already talking about their deficit next year being
even worse. But the reality is, And Mike, if you
could do a handied andy graph of this, I would
appreciate it. If you could just do the Colorado budget
number from twenty ten through now. I think people in
this state that have heard for the last few months
we've got a one point two billion dollar deficit, they're
(19:24):
going to think that this year's budget is one point
two billion dollars less than last year's And I know
that to be false, and I'm.
Speaker 2 (19:33):
Sure you do too.
Speaker 1 (19:34):
So if you could do that graph for me, I
would share it far and wide, just to let people
know what the hard numbers say. We have plenty of money,
they're just spending it very, very poorly.
Speaker 3 (19:44):
In my estimation, Yeah, depending way too much. Again, the
population is flat, it's slightly declining a little bit, and
we shouldn't be spending more and more on the same
population each year. They could fix the roads that would
be nice out that way will be nice.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
And then what we'll do how would we get a
new set of tires when we blow them out on
a pothole. Mike is, Mike o'donald is my Mike o'donald
is my guest. He not only has an x feed
that is absolutely outstanding that you should follow, he also
has a Patreon to uh for a longer form columns
that he does, and I would strongly recommend you follow him. Mike,
(20:18):
we will have you on again for sure. Keep up
the good work because I am making a war book
for Republican candidates that is just full of news stories
and data and things like that. And your work is
already quoted multiple times in my war books. So keep
up the good work. And it's so nice to virtually
meet you today.
Speaker 3 (20:40):
Thank you so much, Manny, and honor and a pleasure
to take care
The Mandy Connell Podcast News
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