Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
As the Fox thirty one chief meteorologist. We just call
him Dave. Dave Frasier. It's a dark and gloomy day
here in the Denver metro. When will the horrible weather break?
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Let's let it go for a little while longer.
Speaker 3 (00:16):
I'm actually enjoying this and it has been beneficial, there's
no question about that.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
So yeah, we're going to continue.
Speaker 3 (00:22):
With the showers.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
They'll probably take until later this evening to finally dry up.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
There's a few of them out there on radar still,
especially at just south of downtown.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Foothills are still seeing wet weather.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Northern Front Range has some showers up near Fort Collins,
and we're seeing a few on the south side down
towards Castle Rock.
Speaker 2 (00:38):
But I think it's been it's been exactly what we needed, Maddie.
I I nobody knows that and was ready for it.
Speaker 1 (00:45):
Well. I told people earlier that when you come into
Colorado the first time, they make you sign a document
that says if you complain about the rain, you have
to end it by saying, but we need the moisture.
So that's where we are. But we need the moisture,
so we're getting a lot of snow in the high country.
How much of an impact will this have because our
right now, our average snowpack levels are not great.
Speaker 3 (01:07):
They aren't, but you know, we've been talking about that.
So you basically load the mountains through about April seventh,
and then after April seventh you start the melting process.
So any additional snow beyond April seventh is helpful. What
we're seeing is snowpack numbers that are below where we
(01:27):
should be for the melting curve, being we've melted it
off pretty quickly. And I think the reason we've melted
it off sooner than maybe we should have is because
March and April were so dry, and we did have
periods of warm stretches.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
We weren't you know, we weren't.
Speaker 3 (01:42):
Breaking records left and right for high temperatures, but we
did have above normal temperatures with sunny days and that
went into getting the melting process starting sooner. And so
your bell curve, if you will, for where we should
be in the melting process is definitely lower than where
we should because we've melted owner.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
So this moisture certainly will help a little bit.
Speaker 3 (02:03):
Does it push the.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
Snow melt pack back up one hundred percent.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
Probably not, but consider it a cherry on top if
you will. It's a bonus and it's been melting. Fortunately,
there have not been a lot of travel problems, even
though advisories were issued in the mountains. Most of the
issues were leigh up high past nine thousand feet. We
were in the mountains last night with our pimploy weather
bees and the roads were just basically wet. So it
was kind of a win win, right, You're getting the moisture.
Speaker 2 (02:29):
Getting the snow.
Speaker 3 (02:30):
You know, there's still skiing.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
Available in the mountains.
Speaker 3 (02:32):
This will you know, go to that people running up,
you know, maybe late this week to do a couple
more turns. But I think this storm has been exactly
what we needed.
Speaker 1 (02:42):
Well, let me ask you about snow melt in general,
because I still don't quite understand what conditions exist to
create the flash flood scenes that we've seen, you know,
in the last decade on occasion, not very often. So
if we've already had some melt, is that for river
conditions for rafting and things like that, or are we
(03:04):
taking too soon?
Speaker 3 (03:05):
Do you know what I mean?
Speaker 1 (03:06):
I'm kind of asking what is the perfect melt cycle?
What does that look like? Compared to where we are now.
Speaker 3 (03:11):
I mean, the worst case scenario for rivers and streams
and the mountains to come up would be a heavy
kind of warm rain on top of the snow. So
you've got the heavy water equivalent of the rain and
you're melting the snow at the same time, and that
would increase stream flow. Generally, if we get a really
(03:32):
big spike, you can get a lot of melting and
streams and rivers will come up very quickly. So it's
there's still though, even though we're below where we should
be for the path. I think even you know, just
a layman can look at the mountains and know there's
still a lot of snow up there in the right,
so we can melt it away.
Speaker 2 (03:52):
So yeah, I mean, you don't want to put the
you know.
Speaker 3 (03:54):
You don't want to take a magnifying glass in the
sun and point it at the Colorado Mountains and melt
everything off at once. That would be that would be
horrible and you would have problems and stuff. And obviously
the bigger concerns are the streams and the creeks and
the rivers that run through you know, narrow narrow corridors,
and you know, where the water can't really fan out.
(04:16):
It has to go up because of the you know,
the steep terrain around it, So.
Speaker 2 (04:20):
You know those I think the worst.
Speaker 3 (04:21):
Case scenario would be a heavy rain event on top
of melting snow.
Speaker 1 (04:25):
Okay, I got a question from a texture or are
they texted the Commons Burial of checks line at five
sixty six nine? Oh hey, Mandy, I live on top
of Monument Hill, which I always consider to be the
Palmer Divide. What does Dave consider to be the Palmer Divide?
Speaker 2 (04:41):
The Palmer Divide is? I consider it Monument Hill as well.
They actually call it the Black Forest Divide.
Speaker 3 (04:47):
Some people do down there, so if you know where
black Forest is, they kind of call it basically Monument
Hill is the peak.
Speaker 2 (04:54):
It's marked right on the highway.
Speaker 3 (04:56):
The elevation, I believe it's seventy three fifty three and
it's highest point there.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
So for me, when I think.
Speaker 3 (05:02):
Of the Palmer.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
Divide, there is a rise in elevation.
Speaker 3 (05:06):
If you look at a three dimensional map of Colorado,
you'll see this little terrain feature that we call the
Palmer Divide that comes east west from the foothills and.
Speaker 2 (05:17):
Kind of rises up.
Speaker 3 (05:18):
So the spine of it would be Monument Hill, and
then it stands all the way out to the Lineman
on the eastern plains. And so you have a rise
in elevation that starts as you depart Denver, certainly as
you start to go over Surrey Ridge, so you're passing
Lincoln Avenue, you're climbing up to the Castle Pines Parkway exit.
You dip a little bit into Castle Rock, but even
there you're up in elevation. And then as you turn
(05:40):
the corner and head towards the larksbur and Greenland, you
start to make that next line as you pass County
Line Road and go from Douglas County and continue.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
South, and then you hit the big up.
Speaker 3 (05:49):
All of that is arise and it goes off to
the east and it kind of stands away. So instead
of being a north south oriented foothills Hogback mountains, you've
got this east west feature that is also a rides
and elevation kind of like a mini mountain, if you will,
and the top of that is Monument Hill. There we go.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
That is an excellent answer to that question, very thorough.
I have another question when we're like we are right now,
and you could I mean ifeasibly, there are definitely. We
just got a text earlier from someone in Woodland Park
who said it's snowing like the dickens down there. When
you're in that range where you could easily switch from
snow to rain. This is, as I'm about to ask
(06:28):
this question, I realize how stupid it is. You're still
talking about the same amount of moisture though, right if
it's snow, if it's rain, it's the same water. It's
just temperature that has changed things.
Speaker 2 (06:39):
Yeah, so let me I'll just answer this business.
Speaker 3 (06:42):
It literally can be a few feet different. You can
literally drive along a rise in elevation and watch the
snow line come in your direction where it's grass, and
then all of a sudden, a couple of feet away
at snow, and then as it goes up in elevation,
the snow is there. We call it a QPS, a
quantitative precipitation. Forecat, we're dealing with liquid all the time.
The question becomes when you're factoring your snow. As you
(07:02):
take that liquid, you've heard this before, and then you
have to extrapolate it out to if a tenth of
an inch was to become snow, how much snow could
it become. And generally you do a ten to one ratio.
If it's cold, it could be a twenty to one ratio.
So the liquid amount is what we're always dealing with
where it's the toughest part in any of a forecast.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
Right, QPF forecast the liquid amount. Here's the difference.
Speaker 3 (07:25):
If you miss the forecast by let's say a tenth
of an inch on a rainy day, you're not going
to know it unless you go out and shut your
rain gage because it's just going to run down the street.
Speaker 2 (07:36):
But if you miss that.
Speaker 3 (07:37):
Tenth of an inch forecast, and that can be another
inch or ten inches of snow.
Speaker 2 (07:41):
It's a big because you go outside and.
Speaker 3 (07:44):
You're expecting four inches and you're shoveling a foot. So
we're dealing with the same tough forecast. It's just a
matter of is it running down and soaking in or
is it stacking up?
Speaker 2 (07:54):
And I got to shovel. It doesn't matter rain or snow.
It's a QPF liquid forecast.
Speaker 1 (07:58):
As I saw Chad, now we're leaving yesterday and I
said it's a gloomy day chat and he said, better
this than snow. And he was absolutely right. Fox News,
You've now Fox News, Fox thirty one chief meteorologist Dave
Frasier joys always. We'll talk to you again next week.
Speaker 2 (08:15):
Anthwley, I'm off next week, but I'll talk to New
week after.
Speaker 1 (08:17):
I hope you have a lovely vacation.
Speaker 3 (08:20):
It's my vacation.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
I got to go get a kid out of college
who's graduating. It's a big yay. Hey, let's get her done.
Speaker 3 (08:25):
Exact about it.
Speaker 1 (08:27):
You almost got that one off the payroll that has
caused for celebration no matter how you look at it.
All Right, Dave, have a great time. We'll talk to
you in a couple of weeks.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
Alight.
Speaker 1 (08:38):
All right, That my friends is Dave Fraser will be
right back.
As the Fox thirty one chief meteorologist. We just call
him Dave. Dave Frasier. It's a dark and gloomy day
here in the Denver metro. When will the horrible weather break?
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Let's let it go for a little while longer.
Speaker 3 (00:16):
I'm actually enjoying this and it has been beneficial, there's
no question about that.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
So yeah, we're going to continue.
Speaker 3 (00:22):
With the showers.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
They'll probably take until later this evening to finally dry up.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
There's a few of them out there on radar still,
especially at just south of downtown.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Foothills are still seeing wet weather.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Northern Front Range has some showers up near Fort Collins,
and we're seeing a few on the south side down
towards Castle Rock.
Speaker 2 (00:38):
But I think it's been it's been exactly what we needed, Maddie.
I I nobody knows that and was ready for it.
Speaker 1 (00:45):
Well. I told people earlier that when you come into
Colorado the first time, they make you sign a document
that says if you complain about the rain, you have
to end it by saying, but we need the moisture.
So that's where we are. But we need the moisture,
so we're getting a lot of snow in the high country.
How much of an impact will this have because our
right now, our average snowpack levels are not great.
Speaker 3 (01:07):
They aren't, but you know, we've been talking about that.
So you basically load the mountains through about April seventh,
and then after April seventh you start the melting process.
So any additional snow beyond April seventh is helpful. What
we're seeing is snowpack numbers that are below where we
(01:27):
should be for the melting curve, being we've melted it
off pretty quickly. And I think the reason we've melted
it off sooner than maybe we should have is because
March and April were so dry, and we did have
periods of warm stretches.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
We weren't you know, we weren't.
Speaker 3 (01:42):
Breaking records left and right for high temperatures, but we
did have above normal temperatures with sunny days and that
went into getting the melting process starting sooner. And so
your bell curve, if you will, for where we should
be in the melting process is definitely lower than where
we should because we've melted owner.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
So this moisture certainly will help a little bit.
Speaker 3 (02:03):
Does it push the.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
Snow melt pack back up one hundred percent.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
Probably not, but consider it a cherry on top if
you will. It's a bonus and it's been melting. Fortunately,
there have not been a lot of travel problems, even
though advisories were issued in the mountains. Most of the
issues were leigh up high past nine thousand feet. We
were in the mountains last night with our pimploy weather
bees and the roads were just basically wet. So it
was kind of a win win, right, You're getting the moisture.
Speaker 2 (02:29):
Getting the snow.
Speaker 3 (02:30):
You know, there's still skiing.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
Available in the mountains.
Speaker 3 (02:32):
This will you know, go to that people running up,
you know, maybe late this week to do a couple
more turns. But I think this storm has been exactly
what we needed.
Speaker 1 (02:42):
Well, let me ask you about snow melt in general,
because I still don't quite understand what conditions exist to
create the flash flood scenes that we've seen, you know,
in the last decade on occasion, not very often. So
if we've already had some melt, is that for river
conditions for rafting and things like that, or are we
(03:04):
taking too soon?
Speaker 3 (03:05):
Do you know what I mean?
Speaker 1 (03:06):
I'm kind of asking what is the perfect melt cycle?
What does that look like? Compared to where we are now.
Speaker 3 (03:11):
I mean, the worst case scenario for rivers and streams
and the mountains to come up would be a heavy
kind of warm rain on top of the snow. So
you've got the heavy water equivalent of the rain and
you're melting the snow at the same time, and that
would increase stream flow. Generally, if we get a really
(03:32):
big spike, you can get a lot of melting and
streams and rivers will come up very quickly. So it's
there's still though, even though we're below where we should
be for the path. I think even you know, just
a layman can look at the mountains and know there's
still a lot of snow up there in the right,
so we can melt it away.
Speaker 2 (03:52):
So yeah, I mean, you don't want to put the
you know.
Speaker 3 (03:54):
You don't want to take a magnifying glass in the
sun and point it at the Colorado Mountains and melt
everything off at once. That would be that would be
horrible and you would have problems and stuff. And obviously
the bigger concerns are the streams and the creeks and
the rivers that run through you know, narrow narrow corridors,
and you know, where the water can't really fan out.
(04:16):
It has to go up because of the you know,
the steep terrain around it, So.
Speaker 2 (04:20):
You know those I think the worst.
Speaker 3 (04:21):
Case scenario would be a heavy rain event on top
of melting snow.
Speaker 1 (04:25):
Okay, I got a question from a texture or are
they texted the Commons Burial of checks line at five
sixty six nine? Oh hey, Mandy, I live on top
of Monument Hill, which I always consider to be the
Palmer Divide. What does Dave consider to be the Palmer Divide?
Speaker 2 (04:41):
The Palmer Divide is? I consider it Monument Hill as well.
They actually call it the Black Forest Divide.
Speaker 3 (04:47):
Some people do down there, so if you know where
black Forest is, they kind of call it basically Monument
Hill is the peak.
Speaker 2 (04:54):
It's marked right on the highway.
Speaker 3 (04:56):
The elevation, I believe it's seventy three fifty three and
it's highest point there.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
So for me, when I think.
Speaker 3 (05:02):
Of the Palmer.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
Divide, there is a rise in elevation.
Speaker 3 (05:06):
If you look at a three dimensional map of Colorado,
you'll see this little terrain feature that we call the
Palmer Divide that comes east west from the foothills and.
Speaker 2 (05:17):
Kind of rises up.
Speaker 3 (05:18):
So the spine of it would be Monument Hill, and
then it stands all the way out to the Lineman
on the eastern plains. And so you have a rise
in elevation that starts as you depart Denver, certainly as
you start to go over Surrey Ridge, so you're passing
Lincoln Avenue, you're climbing up to the Castle Pines Parkway exit.
You dip a little bit into Castle Rock, but even
there you're up in elevation. And then as you turn
(05:40):
the corner and head towards the larksbur and Greenland, you
start to make that next line as you pass County
Line Road and go from Douglas County and continue.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
South, and then you hit the big up.
Speaker 3 (05:49):
All of that is arise and it goes off to
the east and it kind of stands away. So instead
of being a north south oriented foothills Hogback mountains, you've
got this east west feature that is also a rides
and elevation kind of like a mini mountain, if you will,
and the top of that is Monument Hill. There we go.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
That is an excellent answer to that question, very thorough.
I have another question when we're like we are right now,
and you could I mean ifeasibly, there are definitely. We
just got a text earlier from someone in Woodland Park
who said it's snowing like the dickens down there. When
you're in that range where you could easily switch from
snow to rain. This is, as I'm about to ask
(06:28):
this question, I realize how stupid it is. You're still
talking about the same amount of moisture though, right if
it's snow, if it's rain, it's the same water. It's
just temperature that has changed things.
Speaker 2 (06:39):
Yeah, so let me I'll just answer this business.
Speaker 3 (06:42):
It literally can be a few feet different. You can
literally drive along a rise in elevation and watch the
snow line come in your direction where it's grass, and
then all of a sudden, a couple of feet away
at snow, and then as it goes up in elevation,
the snow is there. We call it a QPS, a
quantitative precipitation. Forecat, we're dealing with liquid all the time.
The question becomes when you're factoring your snow. As you
(07:02):
take that liquid, you've heard this before, and then you
have to extrapolate it out to if a tenth of
an inch was to become snow, how much snow could
it become. And generally you do a ten to one ratio.
If it's cold, it could be a twenty to one ratio.
So the liquid amount is what we're always dealing with
where it's the toughest part in any of a forecast.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
Right, QPF forecast the liquid amount. Here's the difference.
Speaker 3 (07:25):
If you miss the forecast by let's say a tenth
of an inch on a rainy day, you're not going
to know it unless you go out and shut your
rain gage because it's just going to run down the street.
Speaker 2 (07:36):
But if you miss that.
Speaker 3 (07:37):
Tenth of an inch forecast, and that can be another
inch or ten inches of snow.
Speaker 2 (07:41):
It's a big because you go outside and.
Speaker 3 (07:44):
You're expecting four inches and you're shoveling a foot. So
we're dealing with the same tough forecast. It's just a
matter of is it running down and soaking in or
is it stacking up?
Speaker 2 (07:54):
And I got to shovel. It doesn't matter rain or snow.
It's a QPF liquid forecast.
Speaker 1 (07:58):
As I saw Chad, now we're leaving yesterday and I
said it's a gloomy day chat and he said, better
this than snow. And he was absolutely right. Fox News,
You've now Fox News, Fox thirty one chief meteorologist Dave
Frasier joys always. We'll talk to you again next week.
Speaker 2 (08:15):
Anthwley, I'm off next week, but I'll talk to New
week after.
Speaker 1 (08:17):
I hope you have a lovely vacation.
Speaker 3 (08:20):
It's my vacation.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
I got to go get a kid out of college
who's graduating. It's a big yay. Hey, let's get her done.
Speaker 3 (08:25):
Exact about it.
Speaker 1 (08:27):
You almost got that one off the payroll that has
caused for celebration no matter how you look at it.
All Right, Dave, have a great time. We'll talk to
you in a couple of weeks.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
Alight.
Speaker 1 (08:38):
All right, That my friends is Dave Fraser will be
right back.
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