July 20, 2025 • 19 mins
Australia's birth rate is teetering on the edge of a new low.
So is it time to dust off the baby bonus and try to reboot population growth, or do we need completely different solutions to tackle this "baby recession"?
And in headlines today Tasmanians may not find out who will govern them for some time as election votes are counted and major parties attempt to make deals with the cross bench to form minority government; The Israeli military has issued evacuation orders in areas of central Gaza packed with displaced Palestinians, where it hasn't operated so far in its war with Hamas, while medics say at least 30 people have been killed waiting for aid; Late-night hosts have been voicing their support for Stephen Colbert after he announced CBS will cancel The Late Show in May, amid rumours the show was axed to appease US president Donald Trump and allow the smooth sale of the show’s parent company; Coldplay frontman Chris Martin has warned the crowd at the first show since the viral kiss cam drama that the cameras were about to head out into the crowd, as the cheating CEO caught out resigns
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CREDITS
Hosts: Taylah Strano & Claire Murphy
Guest: Hayley Fisher, Economist & Economics of Family specialist, University of Sydney
Audio Producer: Lu Hill
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
You're listening to a Muma Mea podcast. Mumma Mea acknowledges
the traditional owners of land and waters that this podcast
is recorded on.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Hey, I'm Taylor Strano. This is Mumma Mer's twice daily
news podcast, The Quickie. Australia's birthrate is teetering on the
edge of a new low. So is it time to
dust off the baby bonus and try to reboot the population.
Let's break down what the numbers say, why families are
holding back, and whether the cash injection actually worked last time.
(00:44):
Before we get there, here is Claire Murphy with the
latest from the Quickie newsroom for Monday, July twenty one.
Speaker 1 (00:50):
Thanks Taylor. Tasmanians may not find out who will govern
them for some time, as election votes accounted and major
parties attempt to make deals with the crossbench to form
minority government. The incumbent Liberals won fourteen seats, five more
than labor On nine in Saturday snap election, but neither
have reached the eighteen seat mark required for major a.
Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockcliffe, whose refusal to resign after losing
(01:13):
a no confidence vote spark the poll, has been given
first crack at forming government by Labor leader Dean Winter. However,
Winter hasn't ruled out trying to get the numbers to govern.
If mister Rockcliffe is unable to form a working government,
it could be weeks for three in doubt seats to
be confirmed via preferences, and any formal minority agreements might
(01:33):
not be arranged until after the numbers are settled. Mister
Rockliffe on Sunday said he'd reached out to Independence on
the cross Bench, pledging to work collaboratively, but it was
the Liberals failure to keep the cross Bench on side
in minority that resulted in an early election in March
last year, as well as the successful no confidence vote
against mister Rockliffe in June. The Israeli military has issued
(01:56):
evacuation orders in areas of central Gaza packed with displaced
Palestinians where it hasn't operated so far in its war
with Maas. While medics say at least thirty people have
been killed waiting for aid. The military evacuation demand, which
could signal an imminent attack on neighborhoods in dear Albala,
alarmed the families of Israeli hostages who fear their relatives
(02:16):
are being held there. The Israeli military dropped leaflets from
the sky ordering people in several districts in southwest dear Albala,
where hundreds of thousands of displaced Garzans have been sheltering
to leave their homes and head further south. Meanwhile, health
officials at Alshifa Hospital in northern Gaza said at least
thirty Palestinians were killed and dozens of others wounded by
(02:37):
Israeli fire as crowds gathered to await the entry of
United Nations aid trucks. Israel's military said it was checking
the report. Palestinian health officials said hundreds of people could
soon die as hospitals were inundated, with patients suffering from
dizziness and exhaustion due to the scarcity of food and
a collapse in aid deliveries, warning that hundreds of people
(02:58):
whose bodies have wasted away are at risk of imminent
death due to hunger. The UN also said civilians were
starving and need an urgent influx of aid. Late Night
hosts have been voicing their support for Stevefae Colbert after
he announced CBS will cancel the Late Show in May
amid rumors the show was acts to appease US President
Donald Trump and allowed the smooth sale of the show's
(03:19):
parent company. Jimmy Fallon said he was just as shocked
as everyone. Seth Meyers called Colbert a great host and comedian,
but an even better person. John Oliver said he was
excited to see what Colbert and his team will do
during the final ten months of the program. Jimmy Kimmel
directed an expletive at CBS, and Andy Cohen said it
was a sad day for the network. As for Donald Trump,
(03:40):
a frequent target of Colbert's comedy, he said on Truth Social,
I absolutely love that Colbert was fired. Colbert had recently
delivered a scathing report on parent company Paramount after they
settled a sixteen million dollar lawsuit with Trump over an
interview with then presidential candidate Kamala Harris on its show
Sixty Minutes, which Trump claims was deceptively edited. Despite saying
(04:03):
there was no merit to the lawsuit, Paramount settled, saying
it was purely for financial reasons, the same reason given
for canceling The Late Show, but there are claims they
settled so that the suit wouldn't become a roadblock to
the sale of Paramount to Hollywood studio sky Dance. There
are now concerns that CBS's journalistic integrity will be compromised,
as the company that owns Paramount is accused of dropping
(04:24):
the late show to also appeace President Trump. Coldplay frontman
Chris Martin has warned the crowd at the first show
since that viral kisscam drama that the cameras were about
to head out into the crowd. Martin told fans that
if they hadn't done their makeup, now was the time
to do it. As a fan noted, no couples were
featured in the segment of the show this time. At
(04:44):
their previous show, a man and a woman were shown
on the big screen, the pair quickly jumping apart in
a moment that led to Martin commenting that either they
were having an affair or very shy. Turns out one
of them was having an affair. The CEO of a
company called Astronomer now stepping down from his job after
the Internet went wild with the story. The company says
they've accepted his resignation and are now on the hunt
(05:06):
for a replacement CEO. That's the latest news headlines, and
if you're after more celebrity news, head to link in
our show notes for the spills daily entertainment headlines.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
Thanks Claire. Next, is it time for another baby bonus
to get us out of this baby recession. Australia's national
fertility rate, that's the average number of children per woman,
was sitting at about one point five to one in
twenty twenty four. That's well below the two point one
(05:36):
replacement rate we need just to keep our population steady
without relying entirely on migration. The country just recorded around
two hundred and ninety two thousand, five hundred berths this
past year. That's a two point six percent bounce back
compared to last year, but it's still down by nearly
four percent from twenty nineteen, before the pandemic sent our
(05:58):
birth rates on a roller coaster. This baby recession has
hit the city's hardest. Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane all recorded
further drops in their fertility rates. For twenty twenty four,
we have Melbourne sitting at just one point four zero,
which is a record low for the city. Young families
are holding off or simply not having kids altogether, often
(06:20):
citing the same reasons sawing cost of living, house stress,
and the price of childcare. However, it's not all bleak.
Regional Australia is seeing a bit of a baby bounce,
with places like Geelong, Newcastle and Perts out of Suburbs
all recording year on year increases in births. Experts say
that's probably due to affordable housing and remote work that's
(06:42):
luring families away from pricing inner city living. Still, though,
even these positive signs are only slowing, not reversing, what's
become a long term decline in birth rates. So is
it time for another government intervention, like say, the Baby Bonus.
Back in two thousand and four, then Treasure repeated Costello
(07:02):
introduced the baby Bonus, a lump sum payment to new
parents starting at three thousand dollars, eventually rising up to
five k. The aim was simple, boost the birth rate
and offset and aging population with that infamous slogan have.
Speaker 3 (07:17):
One for mom, one for dead, and one for the country.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
And well, it actually worked, at least in the short term.
Birth rates jumped and stayed high for several years before
trending down again. Some studies have argued that the baby
Bonus encouraged families to bring forward planned births that would
have happened anyway, while others credit it for a genuine,
if temporary, baby boom. In fact, the early baby bonus
(07:43):
generation is now entering adulthood and the workforce. So was
it a roaring success, Well, not really. While a cash
payment helps some families, experts say it didn't address deeper
issues like affordable housing, reliable childcare, and job security for parents,
factors that we keep hearing now are driving this new
baby recession. And then there's the ongoing debate about whether
(08:06):
the government incentives like this create lasting change or just
a short bloop. Meanwhile, on the world stage, cash for
kids schemes are making a comeback. US President Donald Trump
promised one during his campaign to be reelected, and South
Korea is considering a bonus of over one hundred thousand
dollars to try to reverse its population slide. But in Australia,
(08:27):
the major parties seem to agree that cash payments are
not the fix this time. Instead, they're talking about investing
in what families actually need, secure jobs, affordable homes, and
an easier way to juggle work and care. To help
us dig into what the numbers actually mean. And what
might truly make a difference were joined by economist and
specialist in economics of family, University of Sydney, professor Hailey
(08:50):
Fisher Hailey Why are lessonless people actually having kids?
Speaker 4 (08:55):
One of the key drivers of why people are having
less children is that women, especially are more educated than
they used to be. So today over half of women
age twenty five to thirty four have a bachelor degree
or above as the highest level of education, and for
men it's about forty percents. Back in twenty ten, only
twenty five percent of women had a bachelor degree, so
we've had a really large increase in educational attainment. People
(09:18):
with bachelor degrees can earn more money in the labor market,
and they often want to establish their careers, and it's
difficult to combine that with having children. There's a big
opportunity cost of taking time out of the labor market
or downshifting to a less intensive participation in the labor markets,
and it's also challenging to combine having children and the
time it takes to parent them. There are increasing expectations
(09:41):
for the amount of time that parents invest in their children,
and that's just a challenging balance to find when there's
so many demands on your time.
Speaker 2 (09:50):
We also heard a lot of experts throwing things like
the cost of living in and housing affordability, lots of
other external factors as to why people are maybe putting
off or choosing not to have kids.
Speaker 4 (10:03):
Yes, absolutely so. The cost of living and especially housing
costs are a little bit of a double edged sword.
So we find that for people who are already homeowners,
when their house value increases, they're going to have more children.
But for those who are renting and they're not in
the housing market and not taking that first step on
the housing ladder, then the opposite happens. They're less likely
(10:24):
to have children. So housing affordability is a really strong
driver and it's a really challenging sector in Australia right now.
Speaker 2 (10:31):
Should we be worried about this nearon record low for
the birth rate in Australia, I mean, we have a
lot of people in this country. Is it a possibility
that we just accept that we are having less babies
and move on with it, or why is it potentially
a bad thing?
Speaker 4 (10:46):
The consequence of having lower fertility in the absence of
immigration that makes up the numbers in the population is
that we're going to have a reduction in the number
of working people we have supporting those that don't work,
so an increase in the dependency ratio. That's really challenging
because we need people who are working and being productive
(11:06):
to fund those who are not working, those who are young,
and those who are in retirement. And as we get
more people who are retired compared to the number of
people who are working, that's going to be harder and
harder to afford. And it's not just about tax revenue.
So clearly we need people to work to pay taxes
to fund the age pension, but it also has an
impact on superannuation too. So we think about boomers having
(11:30):
big houses that are worth a lot of money. One
of the reasons they're worth a lot of money is
there are a lot of people coming up behind them
that want to buy a house. If we've got fewer
people coming into the labor market for you are younger
people who are seeking to buy a house, the value
of housing and other assets is going to start to decline,
and that source of funding our retirements is going to
become less strong.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
We had that baby bonus about twenty years ago, and
it seemed to have boosted the birth rate at the time,
at least for a little while. But there's also like
a lot of criticism about the baby bonus, right there's
talk about do we need to do something like that again?
Can you remind us of maybe some of the cons
or the bad side of what the baby bonus did.
Speaker 4 (12:10):
The biggest challenge with the baby bonus is that you
pay it to everybody who's having a child, including all
of those that we're going to have a child anyway.
So we pay a lot of money for each additional
child that gets born as a result of the baby bonus.
So some estimates that it was over one hundred and
twenty five thousand dollars per additional child born in that
baby bonus twenty years ago. And it's also still unclear
(12:32):
whether it's had a long term impact on the total
number of children that have been born. So what we
really do know about baby bonus and similar types of
scheme is that they change the timing of when people
have children. So if you are planning to have a child,
then the introduction of a baby bonus might cause you
to bring that forward. And because the time frame that
people have children over twenty or more years. We have
(12:54):
to wait for that time to be completed to know
whether it's changed the total number of children people have had,
So some initial evidence suggests that there probably wear a
few more berths over the longer period of time, but
not nearly as many as that spike suggests.
Speaker 2 (13:06):
When we look at the data, is it worth us
in visstigating bringing it back now? If we're really worried
about these numbers? Is the idea of a baby bonus
to get us out of a baby recession a viable option?
Do you think?
Speaker 4 (13:18):
I think it would be a short term solution for
what's a long term problem. When we look at the
data on who is having children, we're actually starting to
see a little bit of an increase in the number
of children that the most highly educated women are having,
And one of the reasons for that is that they
are likely to be in jobs where their employers are
giving them quite a lot of benefits and resources to
(13:41):
enable them to combine work with having children better than
those who are in lower paying jobs. So that potentially
suggests that investig in those types of supports for families
is going to be more effective than a one time
cash injection that's going to be very expensive and might
not have a long term impact.
Speaker 2 (14:00):
We maybe need to take a more holistic approach to
affordability as opposed to a cash bonus.
Speaker 4 (14:06):
Yes, absolutely, it's putting the foundations in place a score
long term supporter families combining work hand children rather than
a short term chuck ahead. Before you go today, I
want to share something with you, Mumma. Mer Listeners asked
for more entertainment goodness, and well, I'm here to let
you know, my friends.
Speaker 2 (14:25):
That we listened. Our daily pop culture podcast, The Spill
is now in your ears twice a day. If you're unfamiliar.
Laura Rodnick, joined by Cassenya Lukic and m Vernham are
with us every day at three pm to unpack the
biggest stories in Hollywood. And now I'm very happy to
report that Ash London is with you every morning to
(14:45):
get you up to speed on the latest in the
Hollywood headlines with morning tea. Think of it like this short,
sharp celebrity field news update over in the Spill feed
every Monday to Thursday at eight am. A pop a
link in the show notes for you to listen, but
you can actually check out a recent episode right here.
Speaker 3 (15:11):
Good morning, Spillers and other days upon us and with
it more juicy entertainment news to get us through the morning.
I'm ash London, and just like you can count on
Reread to pop out another kid when all we want
is an album, you can count on me to keep
you up to date with everything that's happening amongst the
stars today. We've got everything from Daddy Pedro stepping out
(15:31):
in Sydney to the Emmy Knoms.
Speaker 5 (15:34):
I've done us a nice drunk Hamama this morning, so
let's get pouring.
Speaker 3 (15:38):
After their December proposal, Seleni Gomez and Benny Blanco are.
Speaker 5 (15:42):
Officially in wedding planning mode.
Speaker 3 (15:45):
The star studded wedding is going to be happening in Montecito,
which I think will henceforth always be known as Harry
in Meghan's neighborhood.
Speaker 5 (15:53):
Let's be honest. The wedding is happening in September of
this year.
Speaker 3 (15:56):
It's going to last two days and featuring mostly close
friends and family, including likely appearances of course from her
Best Day tape. And we're hearing the invitations have officially
been sent out, so this baby's happening. Check your mailboxes.
Come on Australia Post, come through with the goods. I'm kidding,
I'm juda not expected invitation. Now Benny is Jewish, so
(16:16):
we'll no doubt see some Jewish traditions incorporated into the ceremony,
hopefully some killer musical performances. I love these guys together
so much. I'm so happy they're getting married. I cannot
wait to see how beautiful she looks on her wedding day.
Next up, if you're in ours and the airfields decidedly sexier,
more daddy like, then I have the reason. Pedro Pascal
(16:38):
has stepped out on our fair shows. I repeat, Pedro
Pascal has stepped out in Sydney in a sheer shirt.
Speaker 5 (16:45):
I can't it's like he's teasing me.
Speaker 3 (16:46):
It's he's personally teasing me with the outfits, and he
knows what he's doing. He appeared alongside his Fantastic four
First Steps co stars Vanessa Kirby, Joseph Quinn and Eban
Mosserbakrach at the City premiere last night for the film,
which is scheduled for a July twenty five release. The
red carpet was absolutely heaving. Fans had been there for
(17:06):
hours and hours and hours in order to catch a
glimpse of Daddy and Vanessa. Kirby looked so radiant and
so pregnant, although I would be pregnant too if I
just spend that uch time around Petre Repser. The Emmy
nominations are officially out. An Apple TV psychological thrillers Severance
and HBOS DC Universe drama The Penguin have stacked up
(17:29):
the most nominations at the Emmy. Severance scoring twenty seven
nominations not Bad and nominated for the top fries of
Best Drama alongside The Pit, The White Lotus and others.
Now The Penguins starring Coron Colin Farrell, earned twenty four nominations.
My God, it's going to compete for Best Limited Series.
(17:49):
I still haven't seen The Penguin because it looks too scary,
but Colin Farrell is unbelievable. Hollywood Satire, The Studio and
The Iconic White Lotus of twenty three each not Bad,
and then the likes of Hacks the Bear, Nobody Wants
This and Abbott Elementary also competing for Best Comedy Mini Series.
My money is He's got to be on Nobody wants this.
(18:11):
I mean, has ever been a greater show? If if
a category was just like best Kiss, then that would
definitely get it.
Speaker 5 (18:19):
When he takes a bag, puts the ice cream down
Chef's kiss.
Speaker 3 (18:23):
Noah Wiley receives his first Emmy nomination since nineteen ninety
nine for his role as an emergency room doctor on
The Pit. I have loved him for so long. He
was nominated five times for his role in Er back
in the Day, but never won. So wouldn't that just
be the most amazing full circle moment? And at age
eighty three, Harrison Ford has earned his first Emmy nod
(18:44):
ever for playing a grumpy therapist on Shrinking. If you
haven't seen that show, get around it. It is so fantastic.
The Emmy winners will be announced at the Red Carpet
ceremony on September fourteen. Now we Loved Wicked and Now
director John m. Chwo is back with another adaptation for film,
and this time it is Doctor SEUs. Oh the Places
You'll Go. It's going to be turned into a film.
(19:06):
One of my favorite books of all time. This one's
starring Arina and Josh Gadd aka Olaf from Frozen. The
Ata shared photos of both of them holding binders with
their scripts over their faces in a recording studio. Josh said,
never been more excited to go places. We are dreaming
up something very special for you, he said. Warner Brothers
(19:26):
Animation is put together a truly all star team. I've
been dying to work with Ariana and John for a while.
Speaker 5 (19:33):
This is so, so exciting.
Speaker 3 (19:35):
One of the most magical, inspiring books being brought to
life with one of the most exciting directors on the planet.
Josh gadd Is Musical Royalty. Ariana Grande is Ariana Grande.
I can't wait for more information. I can't wait to
see it. I love everything about this project.
Speaker 2 (19:50):
Thanks for taking some time to feed your mind with
us today. The Quikie is produced by me Tabor Strano
and Clo Murphy, with audio production by Lou Hill.
You're listening to a Muma Mea podcast. Mumma Mea acknowledges
the traditional owners of land and waters that this podcast
is recorded on.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Hey, I'm Taylor Strano. This is Mumma Mer's twice daily
news podcast, The Quickie. Australia's birthrate is teetering on the
edge of a new low. So is it time to
dust off the baby bonus and try to reboot the population.
Let's break down what the numbers say, why families are
holding back, and whether the cash injection actually worked last time.
(00:44):
Before we get there, here is Claire Murphy with the
latest from the Quickie newsroom for Monday, July twenty one.
Speaker 1 (00:50):
Thanks Taylor. Tasmanians may not find out who will govern
them for some time, as election votes accounted and major
parties attempt to make deals with the crossbench to form
minority government. The incumbent Liberals won fourteen seats, five more
than labor On nine in Saturday snap election, but neither
have reached the eighteen seat mark required for major a.
Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockcliffe, whose refusal to resign after losing
(01:13):
a no confidence vote spark the poll, has been given
first crack at forming government by Labor leader Dean Winter. However,
Winter hasn't ruled out trying to get the numbers to govern.
If mister Rockcliffe is unable to form a working government,
it could be weeks for three in doubt seats to
be confirmed via preferences, and any formal minority agreements might
(01:33):
not be arranged until after the numbers are settled. Mister
Rockliffe on Sunday said he'd reached out to Independence on
the cross Bench, pledging to work collaboratively, but it was
the Liberals failure to keep the cross Bench on side
in minority that resulted in an early election in March
last year, as well as the successful no confidence vote
against mister Rockliffe in June. The Israeli military has issued
(01:56):
evacuation orders in areas of central Gaza packed with displaced
Palestinians where it hasn't operated so far in its war
with Maas. While medics say at least thirty people have
been killed waiting for aid. The military evacuation demand, which
could signal an imminent attack on neighborhoods in dear Albala,
alarmed the families of Israeli hostages who fear their relatives
(02:16):
are being held there. The Israeli military dropped leaflets from
the sky ordering people in several districts in southwest dear Albala,
where hundreds of thousands of displaced Garzans have been sheltering
to leave their homes and head further south. Meanwhile, health
officials at Alshifa Hospital in northern Gaza said at least
thirty Palestinians were killed and dozens of others wounded by
(02:37):
Israeli fire as crowds gathered to await the entry of
United Nations aid trucks. Israel's military said it was checking
the report. Palestinian health officials said hundreds of people could
soon die as hospitals were inundated, with patients suffering from
dizziness and exhaustion due to the scarcity of food and
a collapse in aid deliveries, warning that hundreds of people
(02:58):
whose bodies have wasted away are at risk of imminent
death due to hunger. The UN also said civilians were
starving and need an urgent influx of aid. Late Night
hosts have been voicing their support for Stevefae Colbert after
he announced CBS will cancel the Late Show in May
amid rumors the show was acts to appease US President
Donald Trump and allowed the smooth sale of the show's
(03:19):
parent company. Jimmy Fallon said he was just as shocked
as everyone. Seth Meyers called Colbert a great host and comedian,
but an even better person. John Oliver said he was
excited to see what Colbert and his team will do
during the final ten months of the program. Jimmy Kimmel
directed an expletive at CBS, and Andy Cohen said it
was a sad day for the network. As for Donald Trump,
(03:40):
a frequent target of Colbert's comedy, he said on Truth Social,
I absolutely love that Colbert was fired. Colbert had recently
delivered a scathing report on parent company Paramount after they
settled a sixteen million dollar lawsuit with Trump over an
interview with then presidential candidate Kamala Harris on its show
Sixty Minutes, which Trump claims was deceptively edited. Despite saying
(04:03):
there was no merit to the lawsuit, Paramount settled, saying
it was purely for financial reasons, the same reason given
for canceling The Late Show, but there are claims they
settled so that the suit wouldn't become a roadblock to
the sale of Paramount to Hollywood studio sky Dance. There
are now concerns that CBS's journalistic integrity will be compromised,
as the company that owns Paramount is accused of dropping
(04:24):
the late show to also appeace President Trump. Coldplay frontman
Chris Martin has warned the crowd at the first show
since that viral kisscam drama that the cameras were about
to head out into the crowd. Martin told fans that
if they hadn't done their makeup, now was the time
to do it. As a fan noted, no couples were
featured in the segment of the show this time. At
(04:44):
their previous show, a man and a woman were shown
on the big screen, the pair quickly jumping apart in
a moment that led to Martin commenting that either they
were having an affair or very shy. Turns out one
of them was having an affair. The CEO of a
company called Astronomer now stepping down from his job after
the Internet went wild with the story. The company says
they've accepted his resignation and are now on the hunt
(05:06):
for a replacement CEO. That's the latest news headlines, and
if you're after more celebrity news, head to link in
our show notes for the spills daily entertainment headlines.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
Thanks Claire. Next, is it time for another baby bonus
to get us out of this baby recession. Australia's national
fertility rate, that's the average number of children per woman,
was sitting at about one point five to one in
twenty twenty four. That's well below the two point one
(05:36):
replacement rate we need just to keep our population steady
without relying entirely on migration. The country just recorded around
two hundred and ninety two thousand, five hundred berths this
past year. That's a two point six percent bounce back
compared to last year, but it's still down by nearly
four percent from twenty nineteen, before the pandemic sent our
(05:58):
birth rates on a roller coaster. This baby recession has
hit the city's hardest. Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane all recorded
further drops in their fertility rates. For twenty twenty four,
we have Melbourne sitting at just one point four zero,
which is a record low for the city. Young families
are holding off or simply not having kids altogether, often
(06:20):
citing the same reasons sawing cost of living, house stress,
and the price of childcare. However, it's not all bleak.
Regional Australia is seeing a bit of a baby bounce,
with places like Geelong, Newcastle and Perts out of Suburbs
all recording year on year increases in births. Experts say
that's probably due to affordable housing and remote work that's
(06:42):
luring families away from pricing inner city living. Still, though,
even these positive signs are only slowing, not reversing, what's
become a long term decline in birth rates. So is
it time for another government intervention, like say, the Baby Bonus.
Back in two thousand and four, then Treasure repeated Costello
(07:02):
introduced the baby Bonus, a lump sum payment to new
parents starting at three thousand dollars, eventually rising up to
five k. The aim was simple, boost the birth rate
and offset and aging population with that infamous slogan have.
Speaker 3 (07:17):
One for mom, one for dead, and one for the country.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
And well, it actually worked, at least in the short term.
Birth rates jumped and stayed high for several years before
trending down again. Some studies have argued that the baby
Bonus encouraged families to bring forward planned births that would
have happened anyway, while others credit it for a genuine,
if temporary, baby boom. In fact, the early baby bonus
(07:43):
generation is now entering adulthood and the workforce. So was
it a roaring success, Well, not really. While a cash
payment helps some families, experts say it didn't address deeper
issues like affordable housing, reliable childcare, and job security for parents,
factors that we keep hearing now are driving this new
baby recession. And then there's the ongoing debate about whether
(08:06):
the government incentives like this create lasting change or just
a short bloop. Meanwhile, on the world stage, cash for
kids schemes are making a comeback. US President Donald Trump
promised one during his campaign to be reelected, and South
Korea is considering a bonus of over one hundred thousand
dollars to try to reverse its population slide. But in Australia,
(08:27):
the major parties seem to agree that cash payments are
not the fix this time. Instead, they're talking about investing
in what families actually need, secure jobs, affordable homes, and
an easier way to juggle work and care. To help
us dig into what the numbers actually mean. And what
might truly make a difference were joined by economist and
specialist in economics of family, University of Sydney, professor Hailey
(08:50):
Fisher Hailey Why are lessonless people actually having kids?
Speaker 4 (08:55):
One of the key drivers of why people are having
less children is that women, especially are more educated than
they used to be. So today over half of women
age twenty five to thirty four have a bachelor degree
or above as the highest level of education, and for
men it's about forty percents. Back in twenty ten, only
twenty five percent of women had a bachelor degree, so
we've had a really large increase in educational attainment. People
(09:18):
with bachelor degrees can earn more money in the labor market,
and they often want to establish their careers, and it's
difficult to combine that with having children. There's a big
opportunity cost of taking time out of the labor market
or downshifting to a less intensive participation in the labor markets,
and it's also challenging to combine having children and the
time it takes to parent them. There are increasing expectations
(09:41):
for the amount of time that parents invest in their children,
and that's just a challenging balance to find when there's
so many demands on your time.
Speaker 2 (09:50):
We also heard a lot of experts throwing things like
the cost of living in and housing affordability, lots of
other external factors as to why people are maybe putting
off or choosing not to have kids.
Speaker 4 (10:03):
Yes, absolutely so. The cost of living and especially housing
costs are a little bit of a double edged sword.
So we find that for people who are already homeowners,
when their house value increases, they're going to have more children.
But for those who are renting and they're not in
the housing market and not taking that first step on
the housing ladder, then the opposite happens. They're less likely
(10:24):
to have children. So housing affordability is a really strong
driver and it's a really challenging sector in Australia right now.
Speaker 2 (10:31):
Should we be worried about this nearon record low for
the birth rate in Australia, I mean, we have a
lot of people in this country. Is it a possibility
that we just accept that we are having less babies
and move on with it, or why is it potentially
a bad thing?
Speaker 4 (10:46):
The consequence of having lower fertility in the absence of
immigration that makes up the numbers in the population is
that we're going to have a reduction in the number
of working people we have supporting those that don't work,
so an increase in the dependency ratio. That's really challenging
because we need people who are working and being productive
(11:06):
to fund those who are not working, those who are young,
and those who are in retirement. And as we get
more people who are retired compared to the number of
people who are working, that's going to be harder and
harder to afford. And it's not just about tax revenue.
So clearly we need people to work to pay taxes
to fund the age pension, but it also has an
impact on superannuation too. So we think about boomers having
(11:30):
big houses that are worth a lot of money. One
of the reasons they're worth a lot of money is
there are a lot of people coming up behind them
that want to buy a house. If we've got fewer
people coming into the labor market for you are younger
people who are seeking to buy a house, the value
of housing and other assets is going to start to decline,
and that source of funding our retirements is going to
become less strong.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
We had that baby bonus about twenty years ago, and
it seemed to have boosted the birth rate at the time,
at least for a little while. But there's also like
a lot of criticism about the baby bonus, right there's
talk about do we need to do something like that again?
Can you remind us of maybe some of the cons
or the bad side of what the baby bonus did.
Speaker 4 (12:10):
The biggest challenge with the baby bonus is that you
pay it to everybody who's having a child, including all
of those that we're going to have a child anyway.
So we pay a lot of money for each additional
child that gets born as a result of the baby bonus.
So some estimates that it was over one hundred and
twenty five thousand dollars per additional child born in that
baby bonus twenty years ago. And it's also still unclear
(12:32):
whether it's had a long term impact on the total
number of children that have been born. So what we
really do know about baby bonus and similar types of
scheme is that they change the timing of when people
have children. So if you are planning to have a child,
then the introduction of a baby bonus might cause you
to bring that forward. And because the time frame that
people have children over twenty or more years. We have
(12:54):
to wait for that time to be completed to know
whether it's changed the total number of children people have had,
So some initial evidence suggests that there probably wear a
few more berths over the longer period of time, but
not nearly as many as that spike suggests.
Speaker 2 (13:06):
When we look at the data, is it worth us
in visstigating bringing it back now? If we're really worried
about these numbers? Is the idea of a baby bonus
to get us out of a baby recession a viable option?
Do you think?
Speaker 4 (13:18):
I think it would be a short term solution for
what's a long term problem. When we look at the
data on who is having children, we're actually starting to
see a little bit of an increase in the number
of children that the most highly educated women are having,
And one of the reasons for that is that they
are likely to be in jobs where their employers are
giving them quite a lot of benefits and resources to
(13:41):
enable them to combine work with having children better than
those who are in lower paying jobs. So that potentially
suggests that investig in those types of supports for families
is going to be more effective than a one time
cash injection that's going to be very expensive and might
not have a long term impact.
Speaker 2 (14:00):
We maybe need to take a more holistic approach to
affordability as opposed to a cash bonus.
Speaker 4 (14:06):
Yes, absolutely, it's putting the foundations in place a score
long term supporter families combining work hand children rather than
a short term chuck ahead. Before you go today, I
want to share something with you, Mumma. Mer Listeners asked
for more entertainment goodness, and well, I'm here to let
you know, my friends.
Speaker 2 (14:25):
That we listened. Our daily pop culture podcast, The Spill
is now in your ears twice a day. If you're unfamiliar.
Laura Rodnick, joined by Cassenya Lukic and m Vernham are
with us every day at three pm to unpack the
biggest stories in Hollywood. And now I'm very happy to
report that Ash London is with you every morning to
(14:45):
get you up to speed on the latest in the
Hollywood headlines with morning tea. Think of it like this short,
sharp celebrity field news update over in the Spill feed
every Monday to Thursday at eight am. A pop a
link in the show notes for you to listen, but
you can actually check out a recent episode right here.
Speaker 3 (15:11):
Good morning, Spillers and other days upon us and with
it more juicy entertainment news to get us through the morning.
I'm ash London, and just like you can count on
Reread to pop out another kid when all we want
is an album, you can count on me to keep
you up to date with everything that's happening amongst the
stars today. We've got everything from Daddy Pedro stepping out
(15:31):
in Sydney to the Emmy Knoms.
Speaker 5 (15:34):
I've done us a nice drunk Hamama this morning, so
let's get pouring.
Speaker 3 (15:38):
After their December proposal, Seleni Gomez and Benny Blanco are.
Speaker 5 (15:42):
Officially in wedding planning mode.
Speaker 3 (15:45):
The star studded wedding is going to be happening in Montecito,
which I think will henceforth always be known as Harry
in Meghan's neighborhood.
Speaker 5 (15:53):
Let's be honest. The wedding is happening in September of
this year.
Speaker 3 (15:56):
It's going to last two days and featuring mostly close
friends and family, including likely appearances of course from her
Best Day tape. And we're hearing the invitations have officially
been sent out, so this baby's happening. Check your mailboxes.
Come on Australia Post, come through with the goods. I'm kidding,
I'm juda not expected invitation. Now Benny is Jewish, so
(16:16):
we'll no doubt see some Jewish traditions incorporated into the ceremony,
hopefully some killer musical performances. I love these guys together
so much. I'm so happy they're getting married. I cannot
wait to see how beautiful she looks on her wedding day.
Next up, if you're in ours and the airfields decidedly sexier,
more daddy like, then I have the reason. Pedro Pascal
(16:38):
has stepped out on our fair shows. I repeat, Pedro
Pascal has stepped out in Sydney in a sheer shirt.
Speaker 5 (16:45):
I can't it's like he's teasing me.
Speaker 3 (16:46):
It's he's personally teasing me with the outfits, and he
knows what he's doing. He appeared alongside his Fantastic four
First Steps co stars Vanessa Kirby, Joseph Quinn and Eban
Mosserbakrach at the City premiere last night for the film,
which is scheduled for a July twenty five release. The
red carpet was absolutely heaving. Fans had been there for
(17:06):
hours and hours and hours in order to catch a
glimpse of Daddy and Vanessa. Kirby looked so radiant and
so pregnant, although I would be pregnant too if I
just spend that uch time around Petre Repser. The Emmy
nominations are officially out. An Apple TV psychological thrillers Severance
and HBOS DC Universe drama The Penguin have stacked up
(17:29):
the most nominations at the Emmy. Severance scoring twenty seven
nominations not Bad and nominated for the top fries of
Best Drama alongside The Pit, The White Lotus and others.
Now The Penguins starring Coron Colin Farrell, earned twenty four nominations.
My God, it's going to compete for Best Limited Series.
(17:49):
I still haven't seen The Penguin because it looks too scary,
but Colin Farrell is unbelievable. Hollywood Satire, The Studio and
The Iconic White Lotus of twenty three each not Bad,
and then the likes of Hacks the Bear, Nobody Wants
This and Abbott Elementary also competing for Best Comedy Mini Series.
My money is He's got to be on Nobody wants this.
(18:11):
I mean, has ever been a greater show? If if
a category was just like best Kiss, then that would
definitely get it.
Speaker 5 (18:19):
When he takes a bag, puts the ice cream down
Chef's kiss.
Speaker 3 (18:23):
Noah Wiley receives his first Emmy nomination since nineteen ninety
nine for his role as an emergency room doctor on
The Pit. I have loved him for so long. He
was nominated five times for his role in Er back
in the Day, but never won. So wouldn't that just
be the most amazing full circle moment? And at age
eighty three, Harrison Ford has earned his first Emmy nod
(18:44):
ever for playing a grumpy therapist on Shrinking. If you
haven't seen that show, get around it. It is so fantastic.
The Emmy winners will be announced at the Red Carpet
ceremony on September fourteen. Now we Loved Wicked and Now
director John m. Chwo is back with another adaptation for film,
and this time it is Doctor SEUs. Oh the Places
You'll Go. It's going to be turned into a film.
(19:06):
One of my favorite books of all time. This one's
starring Arina and Josh Gadd aka Olaf from Frozen. The
Ata shared photos of both of them holding binders with
their scripts over their faces in a recording studio. Josh said,
never been more excited to go places. We are dreaming
up something very special for you, he said. Warner Brothers
(19:26):
Animation is put together a truly all star team. I've
been dying to work with Ariana and John for a while.
Speaker 5 (19:33):
This is so, so exciting.
Speaker 3 (19:35):
One of the most magical, inspiring books being brought to
life with one of the most exciting directors on the planet.
Josh gadd Is Musical Royalty. Ariana Grande is Ariana Grande.
I can't wait for more information. I can't wait to
see it. I love everything about this project.
Speaker 2 (19:50):
Thanks for taking some time to feed your mind with
us today. The Quikie is produced by me Tabor Strano
and Clo Murphy, with audio production by Lou Hill.
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