Florida Population Boom Slows as Costs Push Middle Class Out

Ryan talks with WSJ Reporter Arian Campo-Flores about Florida’s population boom fizzling as high costs drive away the middle class and reshape migration trends across the state.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Ryan Gorman Show podcast presented by Farah and Farah
Accident Attorneys from Tampa.

Speaker 2 (00:07):
I want to bring in a reporter from the Wall
Street Journal, Arion Campo Flores. You can find all of
his work, of course, at WSJ dot com. You can
also follow him on x for more at a Campo
Flores and a piece that he worked on is titled
Florida's population boom fizzles as high cost drive away middle class. Arion,

(00:31):
thank you so much for taking a few minutes to
come on the show. This is a piece that certainly
got a lot of attention here in Florida. You had
Senator Rick Scott comment on it. Give us an overview
of what you learned as you were taking a look
at what's happened here in Florida. We had that big
boom in population following the pandemic, but that has changed

(00:55):
in recent years.

Speaker 3 (00:57):
Yeah, exactly. So. In the most recent period, there's just
been a large exodus of work, particularly working age people
that have left the state, often because of affordability concerns
because the cost of living has gotten so high, and
you also have the influx of people from other states

(01:22):
has also dwindled significantly. And so net domestic migration, which
has long been a force that has powered population growth
and the economy in Florida, is dwindled to you know,
to basically a negligible amount. And when you combine that
with the fact that there's you know, there are more

(01:43):
deaths than bursts in Florida. That switched over in about
twenty twenty, and international migration has gone down significantly in
recent years, in particular because of the current administration's policies.
Population growth, which is like the sort of the fuel
for Florida's economy is negligible, and so it really calls
in to question the economic model of the state is

(02:06):
long relied on.

Speaker 2 (02:08):
You note in your reports housing costs a big hurdle
for a lot of people who want to live here,
who want to stay here, or who wanted to come here.
And you had one thing in particular that you pointed
out was a big driver behind those increased housing costs.

(02:32):
Tell us about that.

Speaker 3 (02:34):
Yeah, well, so there, you know, the housing prices escalated
tremendously in Florida. I think is oh, we know living
here that was driven that was they have been going up.
But then the you know, the pandemic era migration into
the state drove that up. I've been higher. There's been

(02:55):
an influx of wealthy people coming into the state, particularly
in South Florida and other parts of the state that
also drove up prices. Uh. Then you combine that with
the fact that you know, property taxes have gone up,
as we know, that's been a big issue in the
in the legislature recently. And then insurance costs have been soaring.
They're they're finally they finally kind of tapered off, but

(03:15):
they've gone up enormously, driven apart by hurricanes, driven apart
by just other forces in the in the wider insurance world.
And so that has made living in Florida, which used
to be a really affordable proposition for folks, and why
so many people for so many decades wanted to come
down here. Now people are priced out and the and
the issue is at the wages in Florida have not

(03:36):
kept up with that.

Speaker 2 (03:37):
We're joined by Arion Campo Flores, a reporter for the
Wall Street Journal, who has a tremendous new peace out
about our population boom here in the state and how
high costs are impacting the middle class. You can read
it at WUSJ dot com talk about the potential long
term effects of what we're seeing here with p believing

(04:00):
the state because they can't afford it, fewer people coming
into the state because they can't afford it. How could
that impact Florida's economy down the road.

Speaker 3 (04:09):
Well, so, you know, Florida's economy is one that relies
a lot on growth. It relies on real estate development,
it relies on you know, people continuing to come here,
you know, more housing being developed, more malls being developed,
more retail establishments, more services. You know, driving around Florida,
we all see it, right, There's just there's there's a

(04:30):
lot to service that growth, right, but there's not a
lot of big industries that generate, you know, large numbers
of high paying, well remunerated jobs like you might find
in a place like Texas or in parts of Georgia.
And so that that is a problem for the economy.
And you know, I know, the economic development folks in

(04:51):
the state and a whole bunch of organizations that are
that are laser focused on this are really trying to
diversify the economy, bring in other industry, bring in other companies,
bring in higher paying jobs. You know, build out things
like the Space Coast or like the tech and finance
area areas in South Florida. So there are efforts to
do that, but it's sort of like the clock is ticking,

(05:13):
like the economy needs to be diversified, and you need
to adapt to this reality if these trends continue and
if that population influx and that that that economy fueled
by migration continues to wind down.

Speaker 2 (05:27):
And the last thing I wanted to ask you about.
You also noted in your piece that inflation, and this
is something that we talked about here on the show.
Inflation generally, this this spike that we've seen in recent
years in it it's been higher here in Florida than
other parts of the country.

Speaker 3 (05:43):
Yeah, exactly, And so there there were in that period
where you know, the entire country was grappling with inflation, right,
it was like one of the number one issues that
were that was on people's minds. It was even greater
in Florida and parts of Florida and in certain metro
areas in South Florida, the inflation exceeded the national average.

(06:05):
And again, when you're when you combine that with a
lot of jobs that are service sector jobs, that are
not well paid, right, That's that's really problematic.

Speaker 2 (06:16):
Yeah, and we're seeing the unemployment rates start to creep
up here in Florida more recently, something that Senator Rick
Scott has pointed out a couple of times in social
media posts. So very interesting look at Florida's economy and
some of the changes that we've been seeing in recent years. Again,
you can read this piece at WSJ dot com. You

(06:37):
can also follow Arion on x at a Campo Flores
Arion Campo Flores, Wall Street Journal reporter with us. Great
reporting and thanks so much for taking a few minutes
to come on the show to break all of that down.

Speaker 3 (06:50):
It was a pleasure. Thank you so much for your time.

Speaker 1 (06:53):
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