December 18, 2025 • 47 mins
Bloomberg’s Caroline Hyde discusses Micron’s earnings as tech stocks rally on the back of a positive AI outlook. Plus, with private tech valuations soaring, the lines between public and private markets continue to blur. And Blue Origin’s New Shepard NS-37 remains on the ground.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
By the way, we are expecting very shortly the launch
of Blue Origin's latest rocket. You're looking at a live
shot in West Texas of it. It's said to launch
its latest crew of six on its flagship Space Tourism rocket.
To date, Blue Origin has flown eighty individuals above the
Carmen Line, the internationally recognized boundary of space. Let's bring
in Bloomberg Texts Caroline Hyde. Caroline, what exactly do we
(00:30):
know about this specific rocket launch which we are waiting
for in about three minutes time.
Speaker 3 (00:35):
It's on hold T minus ten minutes.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
We're currently pausing waiting to see if this will indeed
go ahead.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
Is planned?
Speaker 1 (00:42):
This is New Shepherd's rocket, the thirty seventh, as we've
been thinking, NS thirty seven is the sixteenth human flight,
as you say, the six individuals on board this time.
Actually it's the first time that we ever see someone
of the wheelchair go in across the common line as well,
so a significant step there. And is it's thirty seventh
overall that we've seen with New Shepherd. And and remember
(01:03):
New Shepherd named after Alan Shepherd, who was the first
ever American astronaut in space. It's about sixty foot tall
that you're currently looking at gazing on your screens. It's
topped with what is sort of known as kind of
a gun drop shaped crew capsule, and that of course
is what will then come back down to Earth supported
by parachutes a little bit later. They're only going to
(01:25):
be about a ride of eleven minutes when they take
off from West Texas, Danny, and it.
Speaker 3 (01:30):
Operates in completely autonomously.
Speaker 1 (01:32):
There are no pilots on board, but we are waiting
to see whether indeed does go ahead as planned. So
Matt Miller, Danny Berger, thank you very much indeed for
what was another amazing stretch of time of the opening
of this market with open interest. But we want to
get to what's happening here live. As you see, that's
the gun drop shaped crew capsule which currently has on
(01:54):
board a German aerospace engineer, the first person who uses
a wheelchair that can reach but also plenty of others
are going alongside her. So that's Mitchie Bunthhouse. But we're
seeing Joey Hyde, no relation. It's a physicist and a
hedge fund investor from Florida. We're seeing a German American
aerospace engineer go into flight.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
A business executive and entrepreneur.
Speaker 1 (02:13):
That's Neil Milch, as well other entrepreneurs, other adventurers going
on this particular fight from the company's private ranch facility
known as Launch Site one in Texas. It's located north
of the town Van Horn, near US Mexico border. So
let's just get a little sense of how important this
is in the general stretch of Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin,
(02:35):
the spacecraft that is New Shepherd, and indeed the missions
that they've currently run sub orbital missions.
Speaker 3 (02:41):
We want to go to Space reporter Lauren Grush.
Speaker 1 (02:44):
We're also welcoming Chad Anderson's Space Capital founder and CEO.
Speaker 3 (02:47):
Lauren, we're on pause. Do we know why?
Speaker 4 (02:52):
I don't believe I know the cause of it yet,
but these holds are fairly common when we do these
New Shepherd launches. They used to happen with a lot
of frequency, which would be a bit frustrating for us
as we were waiting for the countdown to reach zero.
So this is pretty standard. I know that earlier this
morning they had pushed back to the launch because of
(03:14):
high winds over the launch site.
Speaker 5 (03:16):
That's a pretty common reason that they will delay.
Speaker 4 (03:18):
So I believe the hosts might come on and give
some indication as to what is causing the whold, But
at this moment, I don't think I currently know.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
The Federal Aviation Administration, the FAA has a plan advisory
which suggests look a backup opportunity is available. We understand
as soon as tomorrow if indeed this one is postponed. Chad,
we go to you of Space Capital, widely known investor,
thought leader in the world.
Speaker 3 (03:45):
Of space and its ecosystem.
Speaker 1 (03:47):
How important is that Blue Origin can seem resilient and
purposeful with a way in which it gets is thirty
seventh launch off the ground.
Speaker 6 (03:55):
Well, this is great for them.
Speaker 7 (03:56):
I mean, they have a very solid track record of
launching these Shepherd vehicles, launching them to the edge of space,
delivering humans and experiments safely, and bringing them back down.
Like you said, this is a really interesting vehicle that
has helped set the stage for their larger vehicle, New Glen,
which we've seen come online this year. That was one
(04:16):
of the big milestones in twenty twenty five was to
see New Glen not only launch once, but they launched
twice successfully and then they landed their vehicle, becoming the
you know, the second company, the second launch vehicle ever
to land and have you know, and now they're looking
to reuse that vehicle in a similar manner to what
SpaceX has been doing. So you know, so this is
(04:37):
a really important sort of test vehicle for them as
they scale up and then they use new Glenn you know,
their larger vehicle to scale up and do more things
across their lunar ambitions, their space station ambitions and data
center ambitions, and so this is a very ambitious company
that all.
Speaker 6 (04:53):
Sort of started with this new Shepherd vehicle.
Speaker 7 (04:56):
For me, the it's it's a very interesting launch today
because it kind of demonstrates how accessible space flight has become,
where it used to be reserved only for the best
of us, you know, the select few who were lucky
enough to sort of get selected by NASA or EASA
and go through the program and become government astronauts. You know,
(05:18):
now you can you know, you mentioned eighty individuals across
sixteen flights, right, you probably know someone or your two
degrees removed from someone who has flown to space. Now
and we're launching all different kinds of people including people
with different accessibility needs, and so you know, this is
a big moment for me for those reasons.
Speaker 1 (05:41):
Lauren, we talk about that ambition of many talking about
the data center opportunity. We were just having you on
yesterday to discuss how Eric Stremid has become CEO of
a space company as well give us the context of
how fast and furious it is to ensure that there isn't
just one monopoly here when it comes to rockets into space.
Speaker 4 (05:58):
Well, I mean, I think that the thing we are
demonstrating with companies like Blue Origin, SpaceX, Relativity, as we mentioned,
all sorts of commercial companies, is that there is quite
a very vibrant and diverse space economy, and clearly everyone
is looking for what is going to be the next
big thing that provides that big profit that everyone is
(06:19):
looking for. I think over time we've kind of questioned
whether launch alone is enough to sustain these companies, and
I think we've seen that, you know, when it comes
to their business portfolio.
Speaker 8 (06:30):
It you know, that is why when the.
Speaker 4 (06:32):
Likes of Blue Origin SpaceX, a lot of these launch
companies do more than just launch, because I don't think
it's launch alone. Doesn't seem like it's enough to sustain
the business. So we see them building satellites, you know,
talking about space stations, launching people, and so data centers
seems to be this next big thing that I think
a lot of these entrepreneurs think might actually be kind
(06:55):
of the you know, the space gold mine as it were.
Speaker 1 (06:58):
We're just saying pictures of winnim shot and he was
the eldest person to go to space on Blue Origin
there Chad. Just lastly to you at this moment when
we think pushing forward, what is new Glen rocket expected
to achieve? How much more resilience do we need to
see for the larger rocket in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 7 (07:16):
Well, they're off to a fantastic start. Where SpaceX goes
out and is known for trying and testing and running
their test programs very visibly in public, you know, all
of the mishaps and the learnings and everything, and we
get to follow along Bezos and Blue Origin has gone
the exact opposite route, right. They have done a ton
of testing before they launch, and so that's why we've
(07:36):
seen the first two launches of that vehicle be successful,
in the second one even landing successfully. So you know,
if twenty twenty five was the year of launch frequency,
and it was I mean, we were launching orbital rockets
almost every single day, sometimes multiple times per day. If
that was the case, then twenty twenty six is going
to be the year of mass to orbit. We have
(07:59):
massive new vehicles coming online. SpaceX's starship Blue origins New Glen,
and they've announced a larger variant that is similar in
size to starships.
Speaker 6 (08:09):
We have two.
Speaker 7 (08:10):
Massive vehicles that are going to launch an enormous amount
of mass and enable more in different types of infrastructure
like orbital data centers, like space stations and manufacturing facilities.
And it opens up an entirely new sort of piece
of the market that didn't make economic sense before. So
(08:30):
it's a really interesting foundation for what I think is
going to be a fantastic and massive twenty twenty six
in the space economy.
Speaker 1 (08:36):
Important here for a new NASA chief as well. He
recently just got Senate approval as recently as yesterday, that
of course, being Jared Isaacman to lead the Space NASA,
blumo's Lauren Grush, Chad Anderson, the Space Capital. Please say
we'll be sticking around as this launch happens. Stick with us.
There's more to come. This is blue bag tech. Let's
(09:05):
go your quick check on these markets. We're in rally mode.
We have relief to set the market as inflation thrashures
come down some and that CPI reading showing a lot
less than the market and anticipated. But we're also seeing
individual stocks on a tear, maybe a little bit of
AI exuberants again on the day, we're seeing in video Microsoft,
Amazon Tesla at some of your biggest points contributors.
Speaker 3 (09:25):
As is Micron up eleven percent.
Speaker 1 (09:28):
It's actually not at a record high, but it is
having its best days since April as it managed to
really ease concerns when it comes to high bandwidth memory
demand and indeed demand across the board for memory.
Speaker 3 (09:39):
Chips in this new AI world.
Speaker 1 (09:41):
Let's talk about it all, Bloomberg Execuitive reporter Carmen Ryanikey
who joins us now, and we needed a bit of
soothing on the AI anxieties and Micron delivers.
Speaker 3 (09:50):
Yeah, totally.
Speaker 9 (09:51):
And this was actually really great because there was some
anxiety building around this trade. We've seen this for a while,
but following specifically broadcarm in Oracles reports last week and
then some of those news we saw yesterday that weighed
on Oracle as well, so investors were very happy to
see Micron do so well. As you said, shares are
up our eleven percent, and it's also lifting some of
the other digital storage and memory stocks. So we're seeing
(10:12):
sand Disk, Western Digital, Seagate all on the top performers
board today on the S and P five hundred, and
we're seeing a little bit of enthusiasm come back into
that AI trade. So in video, Microsoft, Amazon Meta finally
back in the green in video, especially after the sell
off yesterday.
Speaker 1 (10:29):
What's interesting is that Mineooni, dagods are Dell, HP, those
that depend on memory as part of their own supply chain,
and of course the prices go higher.
Speaker 3 (10:39):
That's hard for their margins.
Speaker 1 (10:40):
But really Micron showing that it can deliver in terms
of price increases that we're seeing also.
Speaker 3 (10:47):
Over at Simesung and high Skhinex.
Speaker 9 (10:49):
Yeah, it's totally true, and you're right, the Apple is
lagging today, so is HP, so is Dell.
Speaker 3 (10:54):
I think what we're really starting.
Speaker 9 (10:56):
To see is that the AI trade trade is still going,
but it's becoming I think more and more companies specific
right investors are really rewarding the shares of companies that
do deliver and are showing that they can, you know,
do well, that they have future growth, and are much
more cautious on the stocks of companies that don't or
that stumble at all. And you know this can change
(11:16):
cord to quarter. I mean we just saw that with Oracle.
So it's really a story that just continues to unfold.
Speaker 1 (11:22):
Carmen Ranicky always unfolding it for us. We appreciate it.
Speaker 3 (11:25):
Let's get more of the broader tech context.
Speaker 1 (11:27):
Janet mu is here with us RBC ruin Dolphin Header
market analysis, and look, we saw really strong revenue growth
from Micron. The fundamentals clearly outperforming.
Speaker 3 (11:38):
Is that what we need? We need earnings proof points right.
Speaker 10 (11:40):
Now, Hi, Caroline, Yes, absolutely. I think investors are being
more picky in general. I think SDAI trend continues to accelerate.
I think we need solid evidence that it is actually
delivering commercial benefits, broadening its application, and of course delivering earnings.
Speaker 11 (12:05):
And I think that is really.
Speaker 10 (12:06):
The primary thing that investors are going to focus increasingly
in twenty twenty six, basically going to be much more
selective and also be cautious on anything that is leverage related.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
So do you think there's more pain to come for
those like an Oracle that have to spend significant amounts
to be able to build up the infrastructure needs.
Speaker 10 (12:30):
I think that will be certainly increasing scrutinally, because the
thing is, if you look at the commercial commitment of Oracle,
it is stretches along decades, and we know that although
you kind of see that the demand is very strong,
you just can't actually confidently project the future right.
Speaker 11 (12:53):
And also, of course it's profitability, and I.
Speaker 10 (12:56):
Think the key question is it is really the amount
of debt that is fueling this AI infrastructure, particularly for Oracle.
I think for hyperscalers or companies that have abundant cash
flow a strong balance sheet, that would be less of
a problem. But I think a lot of those pain
has been released after the share price decline from Oracle,
(13:16):
So hopefully we're setting for a better stage from here.
Speaker 1 (13:20):
What's been interesting is the desire with which to sell
companies that have significant exposure to say an open AI
and there's been this generalization really out there that you've
been buying the Google winners Alphabet winners instead.
Speaker 3 (13:32):
Is that trade still on?
Speaker 1 (13:33):
Are we seeing actually that you can have exposure to
open Ai. Look Amazon with another seemingly circular deal where
they give equity to open Ai so they can afford
its cloud and compute in the future.
Speaker 10 (13:47):
Well, I think the thing is the marquess for Ai
is huge, right, is expected to keep growing, keep accelerating,
So there that isn't necessarily just going to be one
winner out there, like one soft where one model that
is going to conquer everything. So there's this competition between
GERMANI and open Ai, which worries investors because a GERMANI
(14:09):
seems to be.
Speaker 11 (14:10):
Getting a lot of accolaid recently. But you know, I
think the market is just very, very broad, So.
Speaker 10 (14:19):
In general, I think it is normal for investors to
get a little bit worried in the near term, but
I believe that ultimately there will be multiple winners, and
they are likely to be those large in scale and
has which is already being building on very strong.
Speaker 11 (14:39):
It's the same foundations, Jena.
Speaker 1 (14:41):
Your view on breadth, because that hasn't been much in
twenty twenty five, and you can rack up almost like
forty percent of all the gains of certain indices are
down to one particular name or sprinkling of them.
Speaker 3 (14:51):
For the broadening to happen.
Speaker 1 (14:53):
Do we have to see valuations full for some of
the previous winners or can they remain elevated and others
continue to run up alongside.
Speaker 11 (15:02):
I think I think is the latter case.
Speaker 10 (15:07):
I do think that our investors are willing to pay
a higher premium.
Speaker 11 (15:11):
For these strong AI leaders.
Speaker 10 (15:13):
It can continue right as long as they continue to
deliver strong growth. And I think the broadening out story
we've seen that recently, and I think a lot is
because of the FATS upward revision to growth broadcasts. So
we really need to see that economy continue to stay
strong or at least resilient and also having some more
(15:35):
rage cuts from here. So I think another case is
that we may see broadening out in terms of the
AI productivity story. If that happens, we see more evidence
of that, then it could it could keep the rally in.
Speaker 11 (15:49):
The Swami kept going, Yeah.
Speaker 1 (15:53):
What about us being the only game in town or
broadening out more into Asia. We just referenced Samsung sk
henex is big winners and have high bandwidth memory.
Speaker 10 (16:03):
Yeah, we we have a slight overweight position in Asia
equities and probably that's based on the AI story. It
is also, as you're right, is a more diversification away
or in addition to that USAI story. I think Asia
got some really great and important names in that AI ecosystem,
which is worth looking. And I think the other thing
(16:24):
about diversification is that we are constructive on.
Speaker 11 (16:28):
The AI story. But you know, as I fastures, it
is good to think.
Speaker 10 (16:32):
About diversification in a portfolio, and I think UK actually
offers good diversification because the market has very little intact,
it's more defensive in nature, and evaluations remain attractive. So
if you think from a total portfolio perspective, having that
UK exposure actually helped to balance that out that AI exposure.
Speaker 1 (16:53):
Jennet, how many calls are you're getting from clients who
want to exposure more to the private markets and private
assets the sixteen trillion out there rather than just the
public market exposure.
Speaker 11 (17:03):
Yeah, that's interesting.
Speaker 10 (17:05):
So I think currently there are interest of course, but
I think for US mostly is still in the public
market space, but we suddenly are looking more into that space.
Speaker 1 (17:20):
Janeto of RBC ruined Dolphin, Thank you very much. Indeed,
private tech firms, they are commanding record valuations, particularly as
some of the biggest names in AI stay private for
longer now. According to Patrick McGoldrick, managing partner of JP
Morgan Private Capital, this is leading to perhaps a bit
(17:41):
of a blurring of boundaries between the public and private markets.
Please you say, Patrick joins us, now, so talk to
us about that blurring. How much our investors, institutional anyone really.
Speaker 3 (17:50):
Wanting to get more exposure to private markets right now?
Speaker 12 (17:53):
I think it's a core theme that we're seeing across
asset classes, both in the equity market and the credit markets,
of course, but as it relates to the equity lens,
companies are staying private a lot longer. It's well understood
from nineteen ninety seven being five years on average and
twenty million dollars of sales to twenty and twenty five
where it's two hundred and twenty million of sales and
fourteen years of being a private company. But the demand
(18:15):
is there, the depth of the private markets is there.
I think the growth we're seeing is shield by great
innovation in the private markets, and so it's a theme
that we're excited about. It's something that we think we're
well positioned for as a firm and excited to see
what the yearhead brings.
Speaker 1 (18:29):
I mean, your positioning is showing up in these valuations
one hundred and thirty four billion dollar valuations in Data
Bricks in an almost unheard or series L. I mean,
is that the depth in the public markets to support
the ambitions of these CEOs and the need for capital
to continue to expand.
Speaker 13 (18:44):
I think it's a really important question.
Speaker 12 (18:46):
I'm glad you asked, because inherent in every valuation, of course,
is it supported by the fundamentals. Olie and the Data
Bricks management team have done an exceptional job of positioning
themselves effectively for the AI wave, making sure that data
and that in structure layer is well supported and that
they're the market leader.
Speaker 13 (19:02):
And it shows up in the metrics.
Speaker 12 (19:04):
They're growing two times the rate of public high growth
SaaS comps. They're positioned effectively with net expansion rates one
hundred and forty percent. There are no public companies in
the software space growing at that level, So I think
that drives the valuation, it drives the demand for the company.
They've also been aggressive in their pursuit of assets on
the acquisition side that have effectively positioned them. So to us,
(19:26):
it was a privilege to co lead the financing. We
think the public markets will view this as one of
the premiere Darling assets in the private markets, and so
when they go public, it.
Speaker 13 (19:36):
Will be an exciting moment for the company and certainly
for us.
Speaker 3 (19:38):
There's a few other Darling assets out there.
Speaker 1 (19:41):
One of them, as reported by the Information, is currently
fundraising at a seven hundred and fifty billion dollar valuation.
Speaker 3 (19:46):
That's open AI. That's a new portfolio too, are they fundraising?
Speaker 13 (19:50):
So I will let the companies speak for themselves on that.
Speaker 12 (19:52):
I would say we're very proud and excited investors to
be backing open AI. I think Sam and his team
time and time again, despite a little bit of the
negative news or the challenges associated with it, have demonstrated
and ability to innovate in the product side, to form
formidable partnerships.
Speaker 13 (20:08):
I mean Disney and what they're doing.
Speaker 12 (20:09):
There as well as the partnerships with universities across the
countries are emblematic of that.
Speaker 13 (20:14):
It's not the first time that there's been a little
bit of that.
Speaker 12 (20:17):
Focus and intensity of product market fit for them, and
so to us, we think it's a great asset. We're
excited to be investors in it, and they continue to
be synonymous with growth in large language model space, and
so I'll leave it at that, but certainly an exciting
journey for the company.
Speaker 1 (20:33):
I mean, the same blurring and tussle and mental models
are going on in public hand private. Too many big
names dominating certain indices, too much. VC capital really is
totally exposed to the AI trade. How have you talked
to your clients and potential future LPs about, well, the
economy not supporting what is an AI bubble?
Speaker 12 (20:55):
I think there's a few things you have to root
yourself in, and just taking a step back at time
and zooming out makes it a little bit easier to
appreciate the growth in the private markets and AI in particular.
Speaker 13 (21:05):
You go back three years ago, Chat GPT just emerge
on the scene.
Speaker 12 (21:08):
We're at a billion monthly active users and it is
one of the most intertwined assets within a tech stack.
At both the consumer level and the enterprise level. You
have growth curves being completely redefined. That's the hardest part,
I think for public market investors is you have companies
achieving one hundred million dollars of revenue one to two
years faster than their public SaaS companies did when they
(21:29):
were private at twenty to thirty percent the number of employees.
Think about the compounding effects of that over time.
Speaker 13 (21:36):
So yes, there will be in any tech cycle there.
Speaker 12 (21:38):
Are assets that are overvalued, there's excess, there are companies
that may completely go bust. But inherent in every single
tech cycle cloud computing, infrastructure, five G, mobile internet, there
is a new cohort of companies that define those generations,
and we think we're seeing many of those play out
in the private markets.
Speaker 1 (21:56):
The leading one defining private market valuations at the moment
SpaceX where on tend to Hook's waiting for Blue Origin
to launch, and we go go back to it in
a moment. But what are your perspective in terms of
where twenty twenty six is going to see really the excitement,
the exuberance. Is it going to be all about general
to AI, the models, the LMS, or more space More broadly.
Speaker 12 (22:16):
I think it's very clear that defense technology and space
it's having a moment inappropriately, so I think the rate
of innovation the starlink business just a handful of years ago,
there's a lot of speculation on what the monetization.
Speaker 13 (22:27):
Profile of that asset would look like for us.
Speaker 12 (22:29):
We are definitely focused on core assets where there's defensibility
of spend from the chief information officer layer on the
enterprise side, right, we benefit from JP Morgan's breath of
eighteen billion dollars of technology spence to drive insight there.
But importantly cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, those are resilient areas of spend.
Why because the efficacy that you're seeing now from deploying
(22:50):
AI in your organization exceeds the cost is very much
an ROI positive trade for people now.
Speaker 13 (22:57):
So focusing on the right companies defensible.
Speaker 12 (22:59):
Mode, it's clear and sophisticated management teams to manage the
conflicts and competition that comes to the four and then
being in a position to back the winners is very much.
Speaker 13 (23:11):
For we're a position.
Speaker 3 (23:12):
Patrick's great having you on.
Speaker 1 (23:13):
Thank you, Ery, I'm back, wishing you well for the
end of twenty twenty five, Patrick McGoldrick. They're managing partner
of JP Morgan Private Capital. Let's get back to Blue
Origin now the launch is back on. We returned to
our Space reporter Lauren Graush alongside Chat Anderson's Space Capital
founder and CEO. Any details, Lauren and what maybe just
press the pause button?
Speaker 5 (23:33):
I think it was exactly what I thought.
Speaker 4 (23:35):
It turned out to be Whens something that it had
originally pushed back the launchtime this morning, but it seems
to have cleared. We've got a new team minus zero
in about four minutes, I think.
Speaker 5 (23:46):
Let me just check the time. Five minutes.
Speaker 4 (23:49):
Yes, And I would not be surprised if they had
another hole for wins again, fingers crossed.
Speaker 5 (23:56):
That they don't. But as of now, it seems like.
Speaker 1 (23:59):
All Systems and Chad just remind us of the business
model here because these are sort of short and sweet,
eleven minute rides almost this is more pleasure tourism, but
also still understanding the capacity of what humans can do
and achieve just into in a or outer orbital What
do you make of what this precedent is for New
(24:20):
Shepherd and where else it takes us for human travel?
Speaker 6 (24:24):
Yeah, I think you know, again, this is a small vehicle.
Speaker 7 (24:27):
It's going to sub orbital space, just basically kissing the
edge of space and coming back down.
Speaker 6 (24:32):
And so I think that it's really kind.
Speaker 7 (24:36):
Of indicative of the different sort of philosophies between SpaceX
and Blue Origin. Where SPACEXS test programs that they do
out in public, they fail fast learn quickly, adopt those learnings,
and then apply them to their next iteration, and we
get the follow along and watch that test program play
out in real time.
Speaker 6 (24:54):
With Blue Origin, they're much more careful.
Speaker 7 (24:56):
They do a lot of testing internally before they ever launch,
and that's why we've seen them have an incredible success
rate in this vehicle. This new Shepherd vehicle has an
incredible success rate, and they've been launching. They've launched eighty
people over sixteen flights. You know, all of these. You know,
this is a very successful, very reliable vehicle, and it's
(25:18):
really the first step in their larger space ambitions. So,
you know, the landing technology that they use here, they
have applied that to their larger New Glen vehicle. They've
got an even bigger New Glen vehicle that they've just announced.
You know, they want to go, they want to launch
space stations.
Speaker 6 (25:34):
They have a Lunar.
Speaker 7 (25:35):
Lander and contracts with NASA, so their ambitions are large,
and this new Shepherd vehicle is sort of the seating
of that technology roadmap.
Speaker 1 (25:43):
Lauren, we mentioned NASA there, and as I said before,
we have indeed seemingly confirmed a new chief of NASA,
Jared Issacman, it's been a bit of whiplash through the process.
Speaker 3 (25:52):
What is he set to put in place?
Speaker 1 (25:54):
What is the government relationship with these new private startups.
Speaker 4 (25:59):
Well, Origin has established itself as a very important partner
with NASA. I think, as Chad mentioned, they have a
lunar lander program which NASA has contracted them to build
for their Artemis program, which it aims to send humans
back to the Moon for the first time in.
Speaker 5 (26:15):
Over a half century. So they are very bullish on
the Moon.
Speaker 4 (26:20):
I think if you've ever heard Jeff Bezos talk about
his space ambitions, the Moon is a very big part
of that. And also it's an exciting time for Blue
Origin because before Jared Isisacman was confirmed to das administrator,
the acting administrator, Sean Duffy, had talked about potentially opening
up the competition again for the first.
Speaker 5 (26:45):
Lunar landing on the Moon.
Speaker 4 (26:46):
So SpaceX currently holds that contract to land the first
humans on the Moon for the Artemis program, but because
of some concerns about delays and that development process, Sean
Duffy had talked about opening up that contract to see
if Blue Origin could potentially move more quickly on their
lunar lander program, so I think they're going.
Speaker 5 (27:08):
To try and take advantage of that.
Speaker 4 (27:09):
So it'll be a very interesting time over the next
few years to see if SpaceX pools ahead, if Blue
Origin pulls ahead. So we're really in a new age
space race to get back to the Moon.
Speaker 1 (27:21):
And the race is on for NS thirty seven, just
one minute thirty seconds or so before launched Child very briefly,
the management behind Blue Origin that likes of Dave Limp
coming from Amazon important absolutely.
Speaker 7 (27:34):
I mean, the company was around for two decades and
never launched anything. You know, they were in R and
D mode for a very long time. I think bringing
in Dave Limp, you've seen what's happened. I mean, obviously
a lot of work had been done up to that point,
but Dave Limp is a key reason why the company
is now launching. It's a key reason why we're seeing
new Glen come online, and it's a key reason why
(27:55):
they're moving so aggressively on their lunar programs and all
these other things. So super important from my perspective, we.
Speaker 3 (28:03):
Have one minute to go, Lauren.
Speaker 1 (28:05):
What we'll be doing being done by the astronauts in
place right now, oh, we're on holiday again. Fifty nine
fifty eight seconds to go. Maybe a wind polls for now, Lauren.
But what would the astronauts currently be doing, What would
the six people who are currently riding likely to be
doing in this preparation stage.
Speaker 4 (28:22):
Well, I don't know personally, but I imagine their hearts
are thumping quite quickly, and perhaps the adrenaline.
Speaker 5 (28:29):
Is pumping through them at this moment.
Speaker 4 (28:30):
I think, truly, the way that the vehicle's designed is
that it's very automated, so they're strapped into their seats.
I think they really just are along for the ride
for that first descent portion. So I think for them
it's just a waiting game, and they're probably, you know,
gripping the handrails a little tight right now. I'm not
waiting for this hole to pass.
Speaker 1 (28:52):
I mean, the background of these people, Chad, it is fascinating.
As you say, we're now well, I don't think I'm
two degrees separated from Katy Perry, but apparently I'm maybe
two or six degrees separated from Joey Hyde, who is
a physicist and a hedge fund investor from Florida who's
on board. No relation to me, as far as I'm
aware of it, but we do have Mitchie ben Thaus,
who of course is the first person going into space.
Speaker 3 (29:12):
In wheelchair, which is a significant step.
Speaker 1 (29:14):
Got German American aerospace engineer hands Consigmund. How are these
people told ultimately picked, some of them privately spending, some
of them backed by government grants.
Speaker 7 (29:26):
Yeah, I mean I think it's a mix, you know,
Blue Origin and Bezos himself has you know, there's usually
an impact angle to what they do, like there is
meaning behind what he's doing. The first passengers were and
I call them passengers because they're really like like Lauren
has said, it's you know, it's an autonomous vehicle and
they're kind of along for the ride. But the first
(29:48):
passengers were selected very carefully, you know, they wanted to
tell the right story. And but no, I mean people
are they have put down deposits, they've paid their way.
They there's a long list the people who really want
to go to space.
Speaker 6 (30:02):
In addition to.
Speaker 7 (30:04):
The first person in a wheelchair, which again is like
really pointing to how accessible space flight has become. Hans
is a big one for me. I mean, this is
he's a SpaceX legend. He was the one of the
earliest and most senior employees of SpaceX. He was their
VP of Build and Flight Reliability for a decade. So
seeing a key architect of SpaceX success fly on a
(30:27):
Jeff Bezos owned Blue Origin rocket is kind of the
crossover moment.
Speaker 6 (30:33):
That has the industry you know talking. I think is
really interesting that.
Speaker 1 (30:36):
Is now all become weightless as a spacecraft continues towards
its highest point on the brief joid, the brief voyage
that going out to the common line stick with us.
Lauren Grash and Chad Anderson in space Capital, we so
appreciate your time. We'll go back to this launch as
and when the clock these starts. For now, let's check
in on these markets. We're up two percent. We're in
(30:56):
risk on mode, the desire to be buying into equities
after information comes in cooler than expected. But we get
some relief from some of the AI anxiety they've been
building in the market because we've got earning fundamentals for
Micron that was well above expectations, with revenue growth rate
far above the fifty percent that have perhaps have been expected,
and they're pointing towards ever growing margins. How long is
(31:17):
that sustainable. We're eleven and a half percent on the
stock is actually not at a record high, but boy
of price target's been raised. Let's discuss that with Blueberg
Aquities report to ran Vastelica and I mean I was
looking on overall analyst recommendations.
Speaker 3 (31:30):
One of the highest price targets.
Speaker 1 (31:32):
Is five hundred dollars and there's only one cell rating
on Micron.
Speaker 14 (31:36):
Yeah.
Speaker 15 (31:36):
Absolutely, people seem like they are really coming around on
this story. I saw Bank of America upgraded the stock
earlier today. A lot of optimism around just the overall
memory needs that are going to be required as the
AI infrastructure build out continues, especially going into next year,
So a lot of optimism there. There have been some
shakiness in the wake of Oracle and Broadcome results, but
(31:57):
it really seems like Micron surprised to the upside. Things
were well ahead of expectations across the key metrics, and
they talked about so much the man are not able
to have enough supply to meet their major customers. So
sort of the problem there, but I guess a good one,
and just in terms of how strong the demand is.
Speaker 1 (32:14):
I mean, I probam of certain customers that dependent on
maybe just the more basic non memory part of the business,
and they're having to pay higher prices. Already, there were
reports that Dell was triving to pass on some higher
prices last week.
Speaker 3 (32:24):
Dell is down on the day, so to his HPE.
Speaker 15 (32:28):
Yeah, absolutely, we are seeing weakness across the hardware space today. Obviously,
you know, as you increase these memory prices or prices
for memory chips, that's going to be a problem for
the companies that have to pay for it. Obviously, a
lot of the spending is being done, at least on
the AI side of things by these megacap companies that
have such deep pockets, you know, your Microsoft's and Alphabets
and Amazons and so forth. But beyond that, we are
seeing places where you know, micro unscain is going to
(32:51):
their detriment.
Speaker 1 (32:53):
I'm Vasselica always across these market moves, we thank you.
Let's stick on the moves post Micron. Joanne Foeni's with
us partner a new manager Advisor's capital management, our guru
when it comes to all things semiconductors. Just how important
has the high bandwidth memory part of the business become
for Micron?
Speaker 14 (33:09):
Oh, it's absolutely essential, you know, they made that move
into that technology space. They're the leader and it is
proving to be extremely useful in these data centers for
AI because of the intense memory needs to keep that
processing going as quickly as possible.
Speaker 8 (33:26):
So, you know, not enough capacity out there.
Speaker 14 (33:28):
They're adding some, but in the meantime they're going to
enjoy further price increases.
Speaker 1 (33:34):
Good for them, Yeah, good for them that we know
this is a desperately cyclical market at times, and it
can be very good on the upside, very painful on
the downside. They are committing to more capital expenditure. They
are building out to try and meet some of that
demand you on. Is that the right game plan?
Speaker 14 (33:49):
Yeah, it's it's a tough it's a tough industry because
we do, as you pointed out, Carolyn, we get these
cycles and it's it's boom and bust. There are a
few players, but each of them wants to be first
with supply so they can capture the resilient demand the
higher prices, and then inevitably they overbuild prices come crashing down.
Speaker 8 (34:09):
What's different this time, perhaps is.
Speaker 14 (34:11):
The strength of the demand for this new product line
because of what we're seeing obviously in the buildout of
AI data centers, and if for guests are correct and
we're going to see year's worth of AI data center
build out, we're going to see that demand sustain at
these high levels.
Speaker 8 (34:28):
That doesn't mean capacity isn't going to catch up.
Speaker 14 (34:30):
Clearly, they're going to try, and so ultimately prices will
come down.
Speaker 8 (34:34):
And then the question.
Speaker 14 (34:36):
Becomes, Okay, so once we've built these data centers and
that build slows.
Speaker 8 (34:41):
Down, what is the need for all of those new
factories for making memory chips. So it's a devilsely cyclical industry,
very tough.
Speaker 1 (34:49):
There are few players who managed to crack the HBM code.
Speaker 3 (34:52):
Sk heinix some I'm trying to pay catch up.
Speaker 1 (34:55):
How much do you think competition could really ramp up
into twenty twenty six?
Speaker 14 (35:00):
Yeah, I mean clearly, ske Heinez is you know involved.
Samsung is a great company. I'm sure they'll figure this out.
Whether they can add capacity quickly as another question. But
they have the ability to switch capacity between solid state
memory and DRAM and they'll do that as long as
the demand remains. But even with Micron, I mean they
talked about pulling in the expansion and Idaho from you know,
(35:22):
the sort of fourth quarter or the third quarter of
fiscal twenty seven into the middle of twenty seven, so
maybe moving it up by a quarter. It's just tough
to bring on new capacity. There are constraints from the
equipments offers, you know, land research applied ASML. You can
only get your hands on key equipment so quickly, so
it's always slow, and therefore that gives investors some visibility
(35:44):
to how long this cycle might last.
Speaker 1 (35:46):
Were you given any more anxiety around certain players in
the space.
Speaker 3 (35:51):
Yesterday we were all talking.
Speaker 1 (35:53):
About Oracle and perhaps whether it's financing was good or
not for builds out in Michigan. It feels as though
they said they've got the right in place, but how
much we're going to see this on again, off again
bubble problems in twenty twenty six two.
Speaker 8 (36:09):
I think this anxiety is going to continue, and for
good reason.
Speaker 14 (36:13):
Right there's uncertainty about how quickly these AI applications will
be put into practice to generate profits to keep that
demand going for those new data centers. But when you
look at the investments taking place by the big guys,
by the mega companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, what you
see our companies with.
Speaker 8 (36:33):
Just immense free cash flow. Just take a look at
their numbers.
Speaker 14 (36:36):
You know, Amazon reportedly a ten billion dollar investment in
open Ai in exchange for open Ai using its trainingum chips.
Amazon's free cash flow this year and next year is
well over ten million dollars.
Speaker 8 (36:50):
Right, they have plenty of money.
Speaker 14 (36:52):
And you look at the others that have even larger
levels of free cash flow making investments in open Ai
and elsewhere.
Speaker 8 (36:59):
So I think some of the ern is a little
bit misplaced.
Speaker 14 (37:02):
But you know, you look at Accentua this morning, which
you know, we've owned for clients for a long time.
They are talking about how difficult it is to get
their data and their systems and their processes in place
so that they can help customers. What they're also saying
is that customers want and need their help. So there's
definitely an effort out there to roll out AI applications,
and you know we're going to see that happen.
Speaker 8 (37:23):
The question that makes people nervous is how quickly will
it happen?
Speaker 14 (37:26):
Will there be enough profits for the users of AI
who are paying this money for access to these models,
Will they continue to pay in sufficient quantities that you know,
doesn't cause a slow down.
Speaker 8 (37:37):
In the buildout of these data centers.
Speaker 14 (37:38):
But right now, you know, the valuations for a company
like Broadcom are really reasonable when you just look at
two years worth of growth.
Speaker 8 (37:45):
And some are complaining that the valuations are not so reasonable.
But I would encourage people to look not just at
one year of earnings growth, but look at a couple
look at three.
Speaker 3 (37:53):
I like that takeaway, Joanne Feeney.
Speaker 1 (37:55):
Always great to catch up from Advisor's Capital Management Stay well,
thank you.
Speaker 3 (38:05):
Just take a look at this Chinese AI firms.
Speaker 1 (38:09):
They have been soaring in terms of share price, new
entrantsx like more threads.
Speaker 3 (38:13):
They've gone public with wildly.
Speaker 1 (38:14):
Oversubscribed debuts as China makes an all out push to
become self sufficient in semiconductors.
Speaker 3 (38:20):
So what does it mean for the US firms for
global AI tensions?
Speaker 1 (38:24):
James Proud, here's CEO of substrate founder's fund BATCHIP Foundry
in the United States. You've just come out of stealth,
You've joined us on the show at the end of October,
and what I really want to get your perspective on
is China's domestics supply right now and how much you've
long been concerned about our exposure in the US to
Taiwan and the like.
Speaker 3 (38:42):
How much is China making strides?
Speaker 16 (38:46):
Yeah, Well, I think when we talk about China's ability
to have an advanced semiconductor sector, the question is in
can China make fabs? Can they make equipment? The question
has always been will they have access to EUV lithography
tools or be able to make their own. And the
reporting that came out yesterday shows that China now has
a working prototype of some type, which I think to
(39:09):
a lot of people came.
Speaker 6 (39:10):
As a surprise.
Speaker 16 (39:11):
This is something that we've been tracking for a very
very long time and something that I think that the
US should actually take incredibly seriously. We can't just be
playing defense. There needs to be a plan of okay,
how do we regain leadership, but really by a leap
ahead so that we can actually maintain that when China
is able to actually make advanced semiconductors.
Speaker 3 (39:30):
Now, what's so.
Speaker 1 (39:31):
Interesting is that just today we're hearing that Tencent has
managed to appoint a new chief AI scientist, bringing over
from Open Ai. From the reporting being done by outlets
like Reuter's that there's some new EUV or some sort
of lithography equipment built in China by people who've come
from ASML and gone to work back in China. How
is the talent war and the brain drains something that
(39:53):
you're keeping an eye on.
Speaker 16 (39:55):
Yeah, well, I think that we underestimate China to our like.
They are some of the smartest scientists and engineers in
the world, and we shouldn't be surprised that they sometimes
join Western companies and then often go back and are
able to compete very effectively. And so I think that
bedding that China will do something is always the smart
(40:17):
strategy versus bedding that they can't do something, and so
we should change our approach to account for that.
Speaker 1 (40:23):
Your approach is about taking on EUV lithroography in a
different sort of ways and means you've been getting a
billion dollar valuation already. You're looking to restore American leadership
when it comes to actually the equipment needed to manufacture semiconductors.
What is your relationship right with the US government right now?
How much are they taking this into account and how
have things changed since we last spoke.
Speaker 16 (40:45):
Yeah, our relationship for many years has been very close
with the US government, and so I wouldn't say, there's
really been much change. We collaborate very very closely with them,
and they've been some of our biggest supporters, and frankly,
we wouldn't be where we are right now now about
a very very close relationship with the government.
Speaker 1 (41:03):
You use, as you say, particle acceleration X ray wavelengths
to really etch intricate detail basically patterns into wafers. How
do those that are cynical and what you're building, how
do you give the proof points give us something tangible
that you've managed to make strides in to be able
to ensure that maybe we don't even need ASML let
alone Taiwan Taiwanese produced chips.
Speaker 13 (41:26):
Yeah, so there's a.
Speaker 16 (41:28):
Lot that still needs to be done, but I think
that we're very excited over the coming months, in the
next couple of years to begin actually showing some pretty
big leaps. We've been able to go from sort of
zero to having our own working prototype tool in three years,
and that is sort of similar to what was just
announced from China yesterday. Actually on my x account this morning,
(41:49):
we went and posted like one of the key things
that was actually in that reporting yesterday is a doubt
that China will be able to catch up on the
advanced optics required for these systems. And we just went
and publicly released some research that we did two years
ago on how China is actually already achieving these optics domestically,
and so the efforts that are going on here are
(42:12):
far greater than is really sort of at the public level.
I yesterday's news is really only the start of this.
Speaker 3 (42:19):
So what does that mean for me?
Speaker 1 (42:21):
Maybe easing restrictions on H two hundreds. I mean, all
of this, we've seen a clampdown on EUV lithography from
ASML going into China from the US pressure.
Speaker 3 (42:31):
Is it all too late? James?
Speaker 16 (42:34):
I don't think anything's too late, And I think that
when Jensen says China is only a nanosecond behind, like
he's correct. And so I think that our focus at
the US needs to be focused on what we're very
good at, which is sprinting. Like we can play a
defensive strategy, but we need to have an offensive, as
I said, leap ahead strategy as well, and that's the
(42:56):
role that we are trying to play.
Speaker 1 (42:58):
James Proud, CEO of Substrate, trying to leap when it
comes to chip equipment making we appreciate it.
Speaker 3 (43:04):
Now coming up, Trump.
Speaker 1 (43:05):
Media shares absolute popping as it makes another huge pivot,
this time into nuclear fusion details. Nexts bluebo Tech. It's
time now for talking tech. First up, Indian company are
(43:26):
our E Semiconductor seen it shares surge more than fifty
five thousand percent in just twenty months, but the rally
is now showing signs of a strain. According to sources,
the Securities and Exchange Board of India has actually begun
to examine the company's shares surge for potential wrongdoing. Plus,
so far It's launched its own US dollar stable point
called Sofar USD. The company says it plans to make
(43:48):
so Far USD available to its members in the coming
months and its positioning the token as a tool for
twenty four to seven settlement cross card networks. Retailers and
businesses and North Korean hackers are said to have stolen
a record two billion dollars worth of crypto this year,
according to a report from Chain Analysis, and the country's
hall from crypto theft has risen more than fifty twenty
(44:09):
twenty four, it says, records began. This country is estimated
to have boosted its cryptospoils to at least six point
seventy five billion. Talking of crypto and maybe a bit
of a pivot, Trump Media has agreed to combine with
Thae Technologies in an all stock transaction valued at more
than six billion dollars. The companies say it will create
one of the world's first publicly traded nuclear fusion companies,
(44:31):
for plans to construct the first utility scale fusion power
plant next year.
Speaker 3 (44:36):
NOMG Energy reporter Will Wade joins me.
Speaker 1 (44:38):
Now, a social media crypto asset management company is merging with.
Speaker 3 (44:44):
A nuclear fusion company. Let's theorize as to what the
upside is for nuclear fusion. Why are they thinking this
is a good bet?
Speaker 17 (44:51):
You know, this is not the deal I was expecting
to see when I got to work this morning. The
pieces I didn't intuitively put them together, and I still don't.
But what I do know is so Tae's been doing
us for a long time. There's a lot of companies
working on fusion. THAA is making good progress. But one
(45:12):
of the things they said is they're getting almost up
to three hundred million dollars out of this right up front,
and they need it. Their CEO there was a call
this morning and he said, capital is becoming one of
our problems, Like really, because infusion, physics and engineering and
technology has always been the problem. So saying we really
need the money is an interesting development.
Speaker 1 (45:34):
There is a lot of money, a lot of ambition
chasing nuclear fusion. Sam Altman is in there, Jeff Bezos,
a lot of them have been involved in fusion startups.
What's THA done differently?
Speaker 13 (45:44):
Tha is using a different kind of fuel.
Speaker 17 (45:46):
Most of the fusion companies want to use these two
hydrogen isotopes to tium tritium. Tritium is hard to get
and it's kind of radioactive.
Speaker 13 (45:55):
THA.
Speaker 17 (45:56):
Yeah, THA is using hydrogen boron, which is not radioactive
and it's easy to get.
Speaker 13 (46:02):
So they talk about that as.
Speaker 17 (46:04):
One of their differentiators. But you know, really the key
for all of them is the super strong magnets to
keep this, you know, one hundred something million degree ball
of plasma contained.
Speaker 3 (46:17):
Where are we in nuclear fusion? And it's efficacy.
Speaker 1 (46:20):
I mean, you're a man who has great patience, you
work in the world in nuclear.
Speaker 17 (46:24):
Yeah, I mean nuclear moves slow, and fusion moves even
slower than that. But the joke on fusion is that
it's always twenty years away, and it's getting closer. There's
a couple of companies that are you know, making you know,
tangible steps. There's Commonwealth Fusion. They're actually working already on
what they say will be their first commercial plant. Now
(46:47):
they haven't actually achieved a stable fusion reaction yet, but
they're getting close with their demo plant. Tae says they're
going to start building their first commercial plant next year
with the money from this deal. And there's again on
the call today, they talked about first power in twenty
thirty one. He didn't define that, so I'm curious how
(47:07):
exactly what that means. But we could have some real
fusion power plants sometime in the twenty thirties.
Speaker 1 (47:14):
It's gonna be fascinating to see how the current Trump
media CEO, Devin Nunaz, teams up with the Fusion CEO.
They're gonna be co CEOs of this business together. It's
been great getting your breakdown on just the energy and
the innovation side of it all. Bloomberg's Will weighe he's
always there for us when we need one talk nuclear.
Speaker 3 (47:32):
But that does it for this edition of Bloomberg Tech.
You don't want to forget to check our podcast. You
can find it on the terminal as well as online
not Apple, Spotify, and iHeart. For now, Blue Origin, the
flight has been canceled. We'll see if that is reconvened
for tomorrow. Stick with us. This is BlueBag Tech
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
By the way, we are expecting very shortly the launch
of Blue Origin's latest rocket. You're looking at a live
shot in West Texas of it. It's said to launch
its latest crew of six on its flagship Space Tourism rocket.
To date, Blue Origin has flown eighty individuals above the
Carmen Line, the internationally recognized boundary of space. Let's bring
in Bloomberg Texts Caroline Hyde. Caroline, what exactly do we
(00:30):
know about this specific rocket launch which we are waiting
for in about three minutes time.
Speaker 3 (00:35):
It's on hold T minus ten minutes.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
We're currently pausing waiting to see if this will indeed
go ahead.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
Is planned?
Speaker 1 (00:42):
This is New Shepherd's rocket, the thirty seventh, as we've
been thinking, NS thirty seven is the sixteenth human flight,
as you say, the six individuals on board this time.
Actually it's the first time that we ever see someone
of the wheelchair go in across the common line as well,
so a significant step there. And is it's thirty seventh
overall that we've seen with New Shepherd. And and remember
(01:03):
New Shepherd named after Alan Shepherd, who was the first
ever American astronaut in space. It's about sixty foot tall
that you're currently looking at gazing on your screens. It's
topped with what is sort of known as kind of
a gun drop shaped crew capsule, and that of course
is what will then come back down to Earth supported
by parachutes a little bit later. They're only going to
(01:25):
be about a ride of eleven minutes when they take
off from West Texas, Danny, and it.
Speaker 3 (01:30):
Operates in completely autonomously.
Speaker 1 (01:32):
There are no pilots on board, but we are waiting
to see whether indeed does go ahead as planned. So
Matt Miller, Danny Berger, thank you very much indeed for
what was another amazing stretch of time of the opening
of this market with open interest. But we want to
get to what's happening here live. As you see, that's
the gun drop shaped crew capsule which currently has on
(01:54):
board a German aerospace engineer, the first person who uses
a wheelchair that can reach but also plenty of others
are going alongside her. So that's Mitchie Bunthhouse. But we're
seeing Joey Hyde, no relation. It's a physicist and a
hedge fund investor from Florida. We're seeing a German American
aerospace engineer go into flight.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
A business executive and entrepreneur.
Speaker 1 (02:13):
That's Neil Milch, as well other entrepreneurs, other adventurers going
on this particular fight from the company's private ranch facility
known as Launch Site one in Texas. It's located north
of the town Van Horn, near US Mexico border. So
let's just get a little sense of how important this
is in the general stretch of Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin,
(02:35):
the spacecraft that is New Shepherd, and indeed the missions
that they've currently run sub orbital missions.
Speaker 3 (02:41):
We want to go to Space reporter Lauren Grush.
Speaker 1 (02:44):
We're also welcoming Chad Anderson's Space Capital founder and CEO.
Speaker 3 (02:47):
Lauren, we're on pause. Do we know why?
Speaker 4 (02:52):
I don't believe I know the cause of it yet,
but these holds are fairly common when we do these
New Shepherd launches. They used to happen with a lot
of frequency, which would be a bit frustrating for us
as we were waiting for the countdown to reach zero.
So this is pretty standard. I know that earlier this
morning they had pushed back to the launch because of
(03:14):
high winds over the launch site.
Speaker 5 (03:16):
That's a pretty common reason that they will delay.
Speaker 4 (03:18):
So I believe the hosts might come on and give
some indication as to what is causing the whold, But
at this moment, I don't think I currently know.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
The Federal Aviation Administration, the FAA has a plan advisory
which suggests look a backup opportunity is available. We understand
as soon as tomorrow if indeed this one is postponed. Chad,
we go to you of Space Capital, widely known investor,
thought leader in the world.
Speaker 3 (03:45):
Of space and its ecosystem.
Speaker 1 (03:47):
How important is that Blue Origin can seem resilient and
purposeful with a way in which it gets is thirty
seventh launch off the ground.
Speaker 6 (03:55):
Well, this is great for them.
Speaker 7 (03:56):
I mean, they have a very solid track record of
launching these Shepherd vehicles, launching them to the edge of space,
delivering humans and experiments safely, and bringing them back down.
Like you said, this is a really interesting vehicle that
has helped set the stage for their larger vehicle, New Glen,
which we've seen come online this year. That was one
(04:16):
of the big milestones in twenty twenty five was to
see New Glen not only launch once, but they launched
twice successfully and then they landed their vehicle, becoming the
you know, the second company, the second launch vehicle ever
to land and have you know, and now they're looking
to reuse that vehicle in a similar manner to what
SpaceX has been doing. So you know, so this is
(04:37):
a really important sort of test vehicle for them as
they scale up and then they use new Glenn you know,
their larger vehicle to scale up and do more things
across their lunar ambitions, their space station ambitions and data
center ambitions, and so this is a very ambitious company
that all.
Speaker 6 (04:53):
Sort of started with this new Shepherd vehicle.
Speaker 7 (04:56):
For me, the it's it's a very interesting launch today
because it kind of demonstrates how accessible space flight has become,
where it used to be reserved only for the best
of us, you know, the select few who were lucky
enough to sort of get selected by NASA or EASA
and go through the program and become government astronauts. You know,
(05:18):
now you can you know, you mentioned eighty individuals across
sixteen flights, right, you probably know someone or your two
degrees removed from someone who has flown to space. Now
and we're launching all different kinds of people including people
with different accessibility needs, and so you know, this is
a big moment for me for those reasons.
Speaker 1 (05:41):
Lauren, we talk about that ambition of many talking about
the data center opportunity. We were just having you on
yesterday to discuss how Eric Stremid has become CEO of
a space company as well give us the context of
how fast and furious it is to ensure that there isn't
just one monopoly here when it comes to rockets into space.
Speaker 4 (05:58):
Well, I mean, I think that the thing we are
demonstrating with companies like Blue Origin, SpaceX, Relativity, as we mentioned,
all sorts of commercial companies, is that there is quite
a very vibrant and diverse space economy, and clearly everyone
is looking for what is going to be the next
big thing that provides that big profit that everyone is
(06:19):
looking for. I think over time we've kind of questioned
whether launch alone is enough to sustain these companies, and
I think we've seen that, you know, when it comes
to their business portfolio.
Speaker 8 (06:30):
It you know, that is why when the.
Speaker 4 (06:32):
Likes of Blue Origin SpaceX, a lot of these launch
companies do more than just launch, because I don't think
it's launch alone. Doesn't seem like it's enough to sustain
the business. So we see them building satellites, you know,
talking about space stations, launching people, and so data centers
seems to be this next big thing that I think
a lot of these entrepreneurs think might actually be kind
(06:55):
of the you know, the space gold mine as it were.
Speaker 1 (06:58):
We're just saying pictures of winnim shot and he was
the eldest person to go to space on Blue Origin
there Chad. Just lastly to you at this moment when
we think pushing forward, what is new Glen rocket expected
to achieve? How much more resilience do we need to
see for the larger rocket in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 7 (07:16):
Well, they're off to a fantastic start. Where SpaceX goes
out and is known for trying and testing and running
their test programs very visibly in public, you know, all
of the mishaps and the learnings and everything, and we
get to follow along Bezos and Blue Origin has gone
the exact opposite route, right. They have done a ton
of testing before they launch, and so that's why we've
(07:36):
seen the first two launches of that vehicle be successful,
in the second one even landing successfully. So you know,
if twenty twenty five was the year of launch frequency,
and it was I mean, we were launching orbital rockets
almost every single day, sometimes multiple times per day. If
that was the case, then twenty twenty six is going
to be the year of mass to orbit. We have
(07:59):
massive new vehicles coming online. SpaceX's starship Blue origins New Glen,
and they've announced a larger variant that is similar in
size to starships.
Speaker 6 (08:09):
We have two.
Speaker 7 (08:10):
Massive vehicles that are going to launch an enormous amount
of mass and enable more in different types of infrastructure
like orbital data centers, like space stations and manufacturing facilities.
And it opens up an entirely new sort of piece
of the market that didn't make economic sense before. So
(08:30):
it's a really interesting foundation for what I think is
going to be a fantastic and massive twenty twenty six
in the space economy.
Speaker 1 (08:36):
Important here for a new NASA chief as well. He
recently just got Senate approval as recently as yesterday, that
of course, being Jared Isaacman to lead the Space NASA,
blumo's Lauren Grush, Chad Anderson, the Space Capital. Please say
we'll be sticking around as this launch happens. Stick with us.
There's more to come. This is blue bag tech. Let's
(09:05):
go your quick check on these markets. We're in rally mode.
We have relief to set the market as inflation thrashures
come down some and that CPI reading showing a lot
less than the market and anticipated. But we're also seeing
individual stocks on a tear, maybe a little bit of
AI exuberants again on the day, we're seeing in video Microsoft,
Amazon Tesla at some of your biggest points contributors.
Speaker 3 (09:25):
As is Micron up eleven percent.
Speaker 1 (09:28):
It's actually not at a record high, but it is
having its best days since April as it managed to
really ease concerns when it comes to high bandwidth memory
demand and indeed demand across the board for memory.
Speaker 3 (09:39):
Chips in this new AI world.
Speaker 1 (09:41):
Let's talk about it all, Bloomberg Execuitive reporter Carmen Ryanikey
who joins us now, and we needed a bit of
soothing on the AI anxieties and Micron delivers.
Speaker 3 (09:50):
Yeah, totally.
Speaker 9 (09:51):
And this was actually really great because there was some
anxiety building around this trade. We've seen this for a while,
but following specifically broadcarm in Oracles reports last week and
then some of those news we saw yesterday that weighed
on Oracle as well, so investors were very happy to
see Micron do so well. As you said, shares are
up our eleven percent, and it's also lifting some of
the other digital storage and memory stocks. So we're seeing
(10:12):
sand Disk, Western Digital, Seagate all on the top performers
board today on the S and P five hundred, and
we're seeing a little bit of enthusiasm come back into
that AI trade. So in video, Microsoft, Amazon Meta finally
back in the green in video, especially after the sell
off yesterday.
Speaker 1 (10:29):
What's interesting is that Mineooni, dagods are Dell, HP, those
that depend on memory as part of their own supply chain,
and of course the prices go higher.
Speaker 3 (10:39):
That's hard for their margins.
Speaker 1 (10:40):
But really Micron showing that it can deliver in terms
of price increases that we're seeing also.
Speaker 3 (10:47):
Over at Simesung and high Skhinex.
Speaker 9 (10:49):
Yeah, it's totally true, and you're right, the Apple is
lagging today, so is HP, so is Dell.
Speaker 3 (10:54):
I think what we're really starting.
Speaker 9 (10:56):
To see is that the AI trade trade is still going,
but it's becoming I think more and more companies specific
right investors are really rewarding the shares of companies that
do deliver and are showing that they can, you know,
do well, that they have future growth, and are much
more cautious on the stocks of companies that don't or
that stumble at all. And you know this can change
(11:16):
cord to quarter. I mean we just saw that with Oracle.
So it's really a story that just continues to unfold.
Speaker 1 (11:22):
Carmen Ranicky always unfolding it for us. We appreciate it.
Speaker 3 (11:25):
Let's get more of the broader tech context.
Speaker 1 (11:27):
Janet mu is here with us RBC ruin Dolphin Header
market analysis, and look, we saw really strong revenue growth
from Micron. The fundamentals clearly outperforming.
Speaker 3 (11:38):
Is that what we need? We need earnings proof points right.
Speaker 10 (11:40):
Now, Hi, Caroline, Yes, absolutely. I think investors are being
more picky in general. I think SDAI trend continues to accelerate.
I think we need solid evidence that it is actually
delivering commercial benefits, broadening its application, and of course delivering earnings.
Speaker 11 (12:05):
And I think that is really.
Speaker 10 (12:06):
The primary thing that investors are going to focus increasingly
in twenty twenty six, basically going to be much more
selective and also be cautious on anything that is leverage related.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
So do you think there's more pain to come for
those like an Oracle that have to spend significant amounts
to be able to build up the infrastructure needs.
Speaker 10 (12:30):
I think that will be certainly increasing scrutinally, because the
thing is, if you look at the commercial commitment of Oracle,
it is stretches along decades, and we know that although
you kind of see that the demand is very strong,
you just can't actually confidently project the future right.
Speaker 11 (12:53):
And also, of course it's profitability, and I.
Speaker 10 (12:56):
Think the key question is it is really the amount
of debt that is fueling this AI infrastructure, particularly for Oracle.
I think for hyperscalers or companies that have abundant cash
flow a strong balance sheet, that would be less of
a problem. But I think a lot of those pain
has been released after the share price decline from Oracle,
(13:16):
So hopefully we're setting for a better stage from here.
Speaker 1 (13:20):
What's been interesting is the desire with which to sell
companies that have significant exposure to say an open AI
and there's been this generalization really out there that you've
been buying the Google winners Alphabet winners instead.
Speaker 3 (13:32):
Is that trade still on?
Speaker 1 (13:33):
Are we seeing actually that you can have exposure to
open Ai. Look Amazon with another seemingly circular deal where
they give equity to open Ai so they can afford
its cloud and compute in the future.
Speaker 10 (13:47):
Well, I think the thing is the marquess for Ai
is huge, right, is expected to keep growing, keep accelerating,
So there that isn't necessarily just going to be one
winner out there, like one soft where one model that
is going to conquer everything. So there's this competition between
GERMANI and open Ai, which worries investors because a GERMANI
(14:09):
seems to be.
Speaker 11 (14:10):
Getting a lot of accolaid recently. But you know, I
think the market is just very, very broad, So.
Speaker 10 (14:19):
In general, I think it is normal for investors to
get a little bit worried in the near term, but
I believe that ultimately there will be multiple winners, and
they are likely to be those large in scale and
has which is already being building on very strong.
Speaker 11 (14:39):
It's the same foundations, Jena.
Speaker 1 (14:41):
Your view on breadth, because that hasn't been much in
twenty twenty five, and you can rack up almost like
forty percent of all the gains of certain indices are
down to one particular name or sprinkling of them.
Speaker 3 (14:51):
For the broadening to happen.
Speaker 1 (14:53):
Do we have to see valuations full for some of
the previous winners or can they remain elevated and others
continue to run up alongside.
Speaker 11 (15:02):
I think I think is the latter case.
Speaker 10 (15:07):
I do think that our investors are willing to pay
a higher premium.
Speaker 11 (15:11):
For these strong AI leaders.
Speaker 10 (15:13):
It can continue right as long as they continue to
deliver strong growth. And I think the broadening out story
we've seen that recently, and I think a lot is
because of the FATS upward revision to growth broadcasts. So
we really need to see that economy continue to stay
strong or at least resilient and also having some more
(15:35):
rage cuts from here. So I think another case is
that we may see broadening out in terms of the
AI productivity story. If that happens, we see more evidence
of that, then it could it could keep the rally in.
Speaker 11 (15:49):
The Swami kept going, Yeah.
Speaker 1 (15:53):
What about us being the only game in town or
broadening out more into Asia. We just referenced Samsung sk
henex is big winners and have high bandwidth memory.
Speaker 10 (16:03):
Yeah, we we have a slight overweight position in Asia
equities and probably that's based on the AI story. It
is also, as you're right, is a more diversification away
or in addition to that USAI story. I think Asia
got some really great and important names in that AI ecosystem,
which is worth looking. And I think the other thing
(16:24):
about diversification is that we are constructive on.
Speaker 11 (16:28):
The AI story. But you know, as I fastures, it
is good to think.
Speaker 10 (16:32):
About diversification in a portfolio, and I think UK actually
offers good diversification because the market has very little intact,
it's more defensive in nature, and evaluations remain attractive. So
if you think from a total portfolio perspective, having that
UK exposure actually helped to balance that out that AI exposure.
Speaker 1 (16:53):
Jennet, how many calls are you're getting from clients who
want to exposure more to the private markets and private
assets the sixteen trillion out there rather than just the
public market exposure.
Speaker 11 (17:03):
Yeah, that's interesting.
Speaker 10 (17:05):
So I think currently there are interest of course, but
I think for US mostly is still in the public
market space, but we suddenly are looking more into that space.
Speaker 1 (17:20):
Janeto of RBC ruined Dolphin, Thank you very much. Indeed,
private tech firms, they are commanding record valuations, particularly as
some of the biggest names in AI stay private for
longer now. According to Patrick McGoldrick, managing partner of JP
Morgan Private Capital, this is leading to perhaps a bit
(17:41):
of a blurring of boundaries between the public and private markets.
Please you say, Patrick joins us, now, so talk to
us about that blurring. How much our investors, institutional anyone really.
Speaker 3 (17:50):
Wanting to get more exposure to private markets right now?
Speaker 12 (17:53):
I think it's a core theme that we're seeing across
asset classes, both in the equity market and the credit markets,
of course, but as it relates to the equity lens,
companies are staying private a lot longer. It's well understood
from nineteen ninety seven being five years on average and
twenty million dollars of sales to twenty and twenty five
where it's two hundred and twenty million of sales and
fourteen years of being a private company. But the demand
(18:15):
is there, the depth of the private markets is there.
I think the growth we're seeing is shield by great
innovation in the private markets, and so it's a theme
that we're excited about. It's something that we think we're
well positioned for as a firm and excited to see
what the yearhead brings.
Speaker 1 (18:29):
I mean, your positioning is showing up in these valuations
one hundred and thirty four billion dollar valuations in Data
Bricks in an almost unheard or series L. I mean,
is that the depth in the public markets to support
the ambitions of these CEOs and the need for capital
to continue to expand.
Speaker 13 (18:44):
I think it's a really important question.
Speaker 12 (18:46):
I'm glad you asked, because inherent in every valuation, of course,
is it supported by the fundamentals. Olie and the Data
Bricks management team have done an exceptional job of positioning
themselves effectively for the AI wave, making sure that data
and that in structure layer is well supported and that
they're the market leader.
Speaker 13 (19:02):
And it shows up in the metrics.
Speaker 12 (19:04):
They're growing two times the rate of public high growth
SaaS comps. They're positioned effectively with net expansion rates one
hundred and forty percent. There are no public companies in
the software space growing at that level, So I think
that drives the valuation, it drives the demand for the company.
They've also been aggressive in their pursuit of assets on
the acquisition side that have effectively positioned them. So to us,
(19:26):
it was a privilege to co lead the financing. We
think the public markets will view this as one of
the premiere Darling assets in the private markets, and so
when they go public, it.
Speaker 13 (19:36):
Will be an exciting moment for the company and certainly
for us.
Speaker 3 (19:38):
There's a few other Darling assets out there.
Speaker 1 (19:41):
One of them, as reported by the Information, is currently
fundraising at a seven hundred and fifty billion dollar valuation.
Speaker 3 (19:46):
That's open AI. That's a new portfolio too, are they fundraising?
Speaker 13 (19:50):
So I will let the companies speak for themselves on that.
Speaker 12 (19:52):
I would say we're very proud and excited investors to
be backing open AI. I think Sam and his team
time and time again, despite a little bit of the
negative news or the challenges associated with it, have demonstrated
and ability to innovate in the product side, to form
formidable partnerships.
Speaker 13 (20:08):
I mean Disney and what they're doing.
Speaker 12 (20:09):
There as well as the partnerships with universities across the
countries are emblematic of that.
Speaker 13 (20:14):
It's not the first time that there's been a little
bit of that.
Speaker 12 (20:17):
Focus and intensity of product market fit for them, and
so to us, we think it's a great asset. We're
excited to be investors in it, and they continue to
be synonymous with growth in large language model space, and
so I'll leave it at that, but certainly an exciting
journey for the company.
Speaker 1 (20:33):
I mean, the same blurring and tussle and mental models
are going on in public hand private. Too many big
names dominating certain indices, too much. VC capital really is
totally exposed to the AI trade. How have you talked
to your clients and potential future LPs about, well, the
economy not supporting what is an AI bubble?
Speaker 12 (20:55):
I think there's a few things you have to root
yourself in, and just taking a step back at time
and zooming out makes it a little bit easier to
appreciate the growth in the private markets and AI in particular.
Speaker 13 (21:05):
You go back three years ago, Chat GPT just emerge
on the scene.
Speaker 12 (21:08):
We're at a billion monthly active users and it is
one of the most intertwined assets within a tech stack.
At both the consumer level and the enterprise level. You
have growth curves being completely redefined. That's the hardest part,
I think for public market investors is you have companies
achieving one hundred million dollars of revenue one to two
years faster than their public SaaS companies did when they
(21:29):
were private at twenty to thirty percent the number of employees.
Think about the compounding effects of that over time.
Speaker 13 (21:36):
So yes, there will be in any tech cycle there.
Speaker 12 (21:38):
Are assets that are overvalued, there's excess, there are companies
that may completely go bust. But inherent in every single
tech cycle cloud computing, infrastructure, five G, mobile internet, there
is a new cohort of companies that define those generations,
and we think we're seeing many of those play out
in the private markets.
Speaker 1 (21:56):
The leading one defining private market valuations at the moment
SpaceX where on tend to Hook's waiting for Blue Origin
to launch, and we go go back to it in
a moment. But what are your perspective in terms of
where twenty twenty six is going to see really the excitement,
the exuberance. Is it going to be all about general
to AI, the models, the LMS, or more space More broadly.
Speaker 12 (22:16):
I think it's very clear that defense technology and space
it's having a moment inappropriately, so I think the rate
of innovation the starlink business just a handful of years ago,
there's a lot of speculation on what the monetization.
Speaker 13 (22:27):
Profile of that asset would look like for us.
Speaker 12 (22:29):
We are definitely focused on core assets where there's defensibility
of spend from the chief information officer layer on the
enterprise side, right, we benefit from JP Morgan's breath of
eighteen billion dollars of technology spence to drive insight there.
But importantly cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, those are resilient areas of spend.
Why because the efficacy that you're seeing now from deploying
(22:50):
AI in your organization exceeds the cost is very much
an ROI positive trade for people now.
Speaker 13 (22:57):
So focusing on the right companies defensible.
Speaker 12 (22:59):
Mode, it's clear and sophisticated management teams to manage the
conflicts and competition that comes to the four and then
being in a position to back the winners is very much.
Speaker 13 (23:11):
For we're a position.
Speaker 3 (23:12):
Patrick's great having you on.
Speaker 1 (23:13):
Thank you, Ery, I'm back, wishing you well for the
end of twenty twenty five, Patrick McGoldrick. They're managing partner
of JP Morgan Private Capital. Let's get back to Blue
Origin now the launch is back on. We returned to
our Space reporter Lauren Graush alongside Chat Anderson's Space Capital
founder and CEO. Any details, Lauren and what maybe just
press the pause button?
Speaker 5 (23:33):
I think it was exactly what I thought.
Speaker 4 (23:35):
It turned out to be Whens something that it had
originally pushed back the launchtime this morning, but it seems
to have cleared. We've got a new team minus zero
in about four minutes, I think.
Speaker 5 (23:46):
Let me just check the time. Five minutes.
Speaker 4 (23:49):
Yes, And I would not be surprised if they had
another hole for wins again, fingers crossed.
Speaker 5 (23:56):
That they don't. But as of now, it seems like.
Speaker 1 (23:59):
All Systems and Chad just remind us of the business
model here because these are sort of short and sweet,
eleven minute rides almost this is more pleasure tourism, but
also still understanding the capacity of what humans can do
and achieve just into in a or outer orbital What
do you make of what this precedent is for New
(24:20):
Shepherd and where else it takes us for human travel?
Speaker 6 (24:24):
Yeah, I think you know, again, this is a small vehicle.
Speaker 7 (24:27):
It's going to sub orbital space, just basically kissing the
edge of space and coming back down.
Speaker 6 (24:32):
And so I think that it's really kind.
Speaker 7 (24:36):
Of indicative of the different sort of philosophies between SpaceX
and Blue Origin. Where SPACEXS test programs that they do
out in public, they fail fast learn quickly, adopt those learnings,
and then apply them to their next iteration, and we
get the follow along and watch that test program play
out in real time.
Speaker 6 (24:54):
With Blue Origin, they're much more careful.
Speaker 7 (24:56):
They do a lot of testing internally before they ever launch,
and that's why we've seen them have an incredible success
rate in this vehicle. This new Shepherd vehicle has an
incredible success rate, and they've been launching. They've launched eighty
people over sixteen flights. You know, all of these. You know,
this is a very successful, very reliable vehicle, and it's
(25:18):
really the first step in their larger space ambitions. So,
you know, the landing technology that they use here, they
have applied that to their larger New Glen vehicle. They've
got an even bigger New Glen vehicle that they've just announced.
You know, they want to go, they want to launch
space stations.
Speaker 6 (25:34):
They have a Lunar.
Speaker 7 (25:35):
Lander and contracts with NASA, so their ambitions are large,
and this new Shepherd vehicle is sort of the seating
of that technology roadmap.
Speaker 1 (25:43):
Lauren, we mentioned NASA there, and as I said before,
we have indeed seemingly confirmed a new chief of NASA,
Jared Issacman, it's been a bit of whiplash through the process.
Speaker 3 (25:52):
What is he set to put in place?
Speaker 1 (25:54):
What is the government relationship with these new private startups.
Speaker 4 (25:59):
Well, Origin has established itself as a very important partner
with NASA. I think, as Chad mentioned, they have a
lunar lander program which NASA has contracted them to build
for their Artemis program, which it aims to send humans
back to the Moon for the first time in.
Speaker 5 (26:15):
Over a half century. So they are very bullish on
the Moon.
Speaker 4 (26:20):
I think if you've ever heard Jeff Bezos talk about
his space ambitions, the Moon is a very big part
of that. And also it's an exciting time for Blue
Origin because before Jared Isisacman was confirmed to das administrator,
the acting administrator, Sean Duffy, had talked about potentially opening
up the competition again for the first.
Speaker 5 (26:45):
Lunar landing on the Moon.
Speaker 4 (26:46):
So SpaceX currently holds that contract to land the first
humans on the Moon for the Artemis program, but because
of some concerns about delays and that development process, Sean
Duffy had talked about opening up that contract to see
if Blue Origin could potentially move more quickly on their
lunar lander program, so I think they're going.
Speaker 5 (27:08):
To try and take advantage of that.
Speaker 4 (27:09):
So it'll be a very interesting time over the next
few years to see if SpaceX pools ahead, if Blue
Origin pulls ahead. So we're really in a new age
space race to get back to the Moon.
Speaker 1 (27:21):
And the race is on for NS thirty seven, just
one minute thirty seconds or so before launched Child very briefly,
the management behind Blue Origin that likes of Dave Limp
coming from Amazon important absolutely.
Speaker 7 (27:34):
I mean, the company was around for two decades and
never launched anything. You know, they were in R and
D mode for a very long time. I think bringing
in Dave Limp, you've seen what's happened. I mean, obviously
a lot of work had been done up to that point,
but Dave Limp is a key reason why the company
is now launching. It's a key reason why we're seeing
new Glen come online, and it's a key reason why
(27:55):
they're moving so aggressively on their lunar programs and all
these other things. So super important from my perspective, we.
Speaker 3 (28:03):
Have one minute to go, Lauren.
Speaker 1 (28:05):
What we'll be doing being done by the astronauts in
place right now, oh, we're on holiday again. Fifty nine
fifty eight seconds to go. Maybe a wind polls for now, Lauren.
But what would the astronauts currently be doing, What would
the six people who are currently riding likely to be
doing in this preparation stage.
Speaker 4 (28:22):
Well, I don't know personally, but I imagine their hearts
are thumping quite quickly, and perhaps the adrenaline.
Speaker 5 (28:29):
Is pumping through them at this moment.
Speaker 4 (28:30):
I think, truly, the way that the vehicle's designed is
that it's very automated, so they're strapped into their seats.
I think they really just are along for the ride
for that first descent portion. So I think for them
it's just a waiting game, and they're probably, you know,
gripping the handrails a little tight right now. I'm not
waiting for this hole to pass.
Speaker 1 (28:52):
I mean, the background of these people, Chad, it is fascinating.
As you say, we're now well, I don't think I'm
two degrees separated from Katy Perry, but apparently I'm maybe
two or six degrees separated from Joey Hyde, who is
a physicist and a hedge fund investor from Florida who's
on board. No relation to me, as far as I'm
aware of it, but we do have Mitchie ben Thaus,
who of course is the first person going into space.
Speaker 3 (29:12):
In wheelchair, which is a significant step.
Speaker 1 (29:14):
Got German American aerospace engineer hands Consigmund. How are these
people told ultimately picked, some of them privately spending, some
of them backed by government grants.
Speaker 7 (29:26):
Yeah, I mean I think it's a mix, you know,
Blue Origin and Bezos himself has you know, there's usually
an impact angle to what they do, like there is
meaning behind what he's doing. The first passengers were and
I call them passengers because they're really like like Lauren
has said, it's you know, it's an autonomous vehicle and
they're kind of along for the ride. But the first
(29:48):
passengers were selected very carefully, you know, they wanted to
tell the right story. And but no, I mean people
are they have put down deposits, they've paid their way.
They there's a long list the people who really want
to go to space.
Speaker 6 (30:02):
In addition to.
Speaker 7 (30:04):
The first person in a wheelchair, which again is like
really pointing to how accessible space flight has become. Hans
is a big one for me. I mean, this is
he's a SpaceX legend. He was the one of the
earliest and most senior employees of SpaceX. He was their
VP of Build and Flight Reliability for a decade. So
seeing a key architect of SpaceX success fly on a
(30:27):
Jeff Bezos owned Blue Origin rocket is kind of the
crossover moment.
Speaker 6 (30:33):
That has the industry you know talking. I think is
really interesting that.
Speaker 1 (30:36):
Is now all become weightless as a spacecraft continues towards
its highest point on the brief joid, the brief voyage
that going out to the common line stick with us.
Lauren Grash and Chad Anderson in space Capital, we so
appreciate your time. We'll go back to this launch as
and when the clock these starts. For now, let's check
in on these markets. We're up two percent. We're in
(30:56):
risk on mode, the desire to be buying into equities
after information comes in cooler than expected. But we get
some relief from some of the AI anxiety they've been
building in the market because we've got earning fundamentals for
Micron that was well above expectations, with revenue growth rate
far above the fifty percent that have perhaps have been expected,
and they're pointing towards ever growing margins. How long is
(31:17):
that sustainable. We're eleven and a half percent on the
stock is actually not at a record high, but boy
of price target's been raised. Let's discuss that with Blueberg
Aquities report to ran Vastelica and I mean I was
looking on overall analyst recommendations.
Speaker 3 (31:30):
One of the highest price targets.
Speaker 1 (31:32):
Is five hundred dollars and there's only one cell rating
on Micron.
Speaker 14 (31:36):
Yeah.
Speaker 15 (31:36):
Absolutely, people seem like they are really coming around on
this story. I saw Bank of America upgraded the stock
earlier today. A lot of optimism around just the overall
memory needs that are going to be required as the
AI infrastructure build out continues, especially going into next year,
So a lot of optimism there. There have been some
shakiness in the wake of Oracle and Broadcome results, but
(31:57):
it really seems like Micron surprised to the upside. Things
were well ahead of expectations across the key metrics, and
they talked about so much the man are not able
to have enough supply to meet their major customers. So
sort of the problem there, but I guess a good one,
and just in terms of how strong the demand is.
Speaker 1 (32:14):
I mean, I probam of certain customers that dependent on
maybe just the more basic non memory part of the business,
and they're having to pay higher prices. Already, there were
reports that Dell was triving to pass on some higher
prices last week.
Speaker 3 (32:24):
Dell is down on the day, so to his HPE.
Speaker 15 (32:28):
Yeah, absolutely, we are seeing weakness across the hardware space today. Obviously,
you know, as you increase these memory prices or prices
for memory chips, that's going to be a problem for
the companies that have to pay for it. Obviously, a
lot of the spending is being done, at least on
the AI side of things by these megacap companies that
have such deep pockets, you know, your Microsoft's and Alphabets
and Amazons and so forth. But beyond that, we are
seeing places where you know, micro unscain is going to
(32:51):
their detriment.
Speaker 1 (32:53):
I'm Vasselica always across these market moves, we thank you.
Let's stick on the moves post Micron. Joanne Foeni's with
us partner a new manager Advisor's capital management, our guru
when it comes to all things semiconductors. Just how important
has the high bandwidth memory part of the business become
for Micron?
Speaker 14 (33:09):
Oh, it's absolutely essential, you know, they made that move
into that technology space. They're the leader and it is
proving to be extremely useful in these data centers for
AI because of the intense memory needs to keep that
processing going as quickly as possible.
Speaker 8 (33:26):
So, you know, not enough capacity out there.
Speaker 14 (33:28):
They're adding some, but in the meantime they're going to
enjoy further price increases.
Speaker 1 (33:34):
Good for them, Yeah, good for them that we know
this is a desperately cyclical market at times, and it
can be very good on the upside, very painful on
the downside. They are committing to more capital expenditure. They
are building out to try and meet some of that
demand you on. Is that the right game plan?
Speaker 14 (33:49):
Yeah, it's it's a tough it's a tough industry because
we do, as you pointed out, Carolyn, we get these
cycles and it's it's boom and bust. There are a
few players, but each of them wants to be first
with supply so they can capture the resilient demand the
higher prices, and then inevitably they overbuild prices come crashing down.
Speaker 8 (34:09):
What's different this time, perhaps is.
Speaker 14 (34:11):
The strength of the demand for this new product line
because of what we're seeing obviously in the buildout of
AI data centers, and if for guests are correct and
we're going to see year's worth of AI data center
build out, we're going to see that demand sustain at
these high levels.
Speaker 8 (34:28):
That doesn't mean capacity isn't going to catch up.
Speaker 14 (34:30):
Clearly, they're going to try, and so ultimately prices will
come down.
Speaker 8 (34:34):
And then the question.
Speaker 14 (34:36):
Becomes, Okay, so once we've built these data centers and
that build slows.
Speaker 8 (34:41):
Down, what is the need for all of those new
factories for making memory chips. So it's a devilsely cyclical industry,
very tough.
Speaker 1 (34:49):
There are few players who managed to crack the HBM code.
Speaker 3 (34:52):
Sk heinix some I'm trying to pay catch up.
Speaker 1 (34:55):
How much do you think competition could really ramp up
into twenty twenty six?
Speaker 14 (35:00):
Yeah, I mean clearly, ske Heinez is you know involved.
Samsung is a great company. I'm sure they'll figure this out.
Whether they can add capacity quickly as another question. But
they have the ability to switch capacity between solid state
memory and DRAM and they'll do that as long as
the demand remains. But even with Micron, I mean they
talked about pulling in the expansion and Idaho from you know,
(35:22):
the sort of fourth quarter or the third quarter of
fiscal twenty seven into the middle of twenty seven, so
maybe moving it up by a quarter. It's just tough
to bring on new capacity. There are constraints from the
equipments offers, you know, land research applied ASML. You can
only get your hands on key equipment so quickly, so
it's always slow, and therefore that gives investors some visibility
(35:44):
to how long this cycle might last.
Speaker 1 (35:46):
Were you given any more anxiety around certain players in
the space.
Speaker 3 (35:51):
Yesterday we were all talking.
Speaker 1 (35:53):
About Oracle and perhaps whether it's financing was good or
not for builds out in Michigan. It feels as though
they said they've got the right in place, but how
much we're going to see this on again, off again
bubble problems in twenty twenty six two.
Speaker 8 (36:09):
I think this anxiety is going to continue, and for
good reason.
Speaker 14 (36:13):
Right there's uncertainty about how quickly these AI applications will
be put into practice to generate profits to keep that
demand going for those new data centers. But when you
look at the investments taking place by the big guys,
by the mega companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, what you
see our companies with.
Speaker 8 (36:33):
Just immense free cash flow. Just take a look at
their numbers.
Speaker 14 (36:36):
You know, Amazon reportedly a ten billion dollar investment in
open Ai in exchange for open Ai using its trainingum chips.
Amazon's free cash flow this year and next year is
well over ten million dollars.
Speaker 8 (36:50):
Right, they have plenty of money.
Speaker 14 (36:52):
And you look at the others that have even larger
levels of free cash flow making investments in open Ai
and elsewhere.
Speaker 8 (36:59):
So I think some of the ern is a little
bit misplaced.
Speaker 14 (37:02):
But you know, you look at Accentua this morning, which
you know, we've owned for clients for a long time.
They are talking about how difficult it is to get
their data and their systems and their processes in place
so that they can help customers. What they're also saying
is that customers want and need their help. So there's
definitely an effort out there to roll out AI applications,
and you know we're going to see that happen.
Speaker 8 (37:23):
The question that makes people nervous is how quickly will
it happen?
Speaker 14 (37:26):
Will there be enough profits for the users of AI
who are paying this money for access to these models,
Will they continue to pay in sufficient quantities that you know,
doesn't cause a slow down.
Speaker 8 (37:37):
In the buildout of these data centers.
Speaker 14 (37:38):
But right now, you know, the valuations for a company
like Broadcom are really reasonable when you just look at
two years worth of growth.
Speaker 8 (37:45):
And some are complaining that the valuations are not so reasonable.
But I would encourage people to look not just at
one year of earnings growth, but look at a couple
look at three.
Speaker 3 (37:53):
I like that takeaway, Joanne Feeney.
Speaker 1 (37:55):
Always great to catch up from Advisor's Capital Management Stay well,
thank you.
Speaker 3 (38:05):
Just take a look at this Chinese AI firms.
Speaker 1 (38:09):
They have been soaring in terms of share price, new
entrantsx like more threads.
Speaker 3 (38:13):
They've gone public with wildly.
Speaker 1 (38:14):
Oversubscribed debuts as China makes an all out push to
become self sufficient in semiconductors.
Speaker 3 (38:20):
So what does it mean for the US firms for
global AI tensions?
Speaker 1 (38:24):
James Proud, here's CEO of substrate founder's fund BATCHIP Foundry
in the United States. You've just come out of stealth,
You've joined us on the show at the end of October,
and what I really want to get your perspective on
is China's domestics supply right now and how much you've
long been concerned about our exposure in the US to
Taiwan and the like.
Speaker 3 (38:42):
How much is China making strides?
Speaker 16 (38:46):
Yeah, Well, I think when we talk about China's ability
to have an advanced semiconductor sector, the question is in
can China make fabs? Can they make equipment? The question
has always been will they have access to EUV lithography
tools or be able to make their own. And the
reporting that came out yesterday shows that China now has
a working prototype of some type, which I think to
(39:09):
a lot of people came.
Speaker 6 (39:10):
As a surprise.
Speaker 16 (39:11):
This is something that we've been tracking for a very
very long time and something that I think that the
US should actually take incredibly seriously. We can't just be
playing defense. There needs to be a plan of okay,
how do we regain leadership, but really by a leap
ahead so that we can actually maintain that when China
is able to actually make advanced semiconductors.
Speaker 3 (39:30):
Now, what's so.
Speaker 1 (39:31):
Interesting is that just today we're hearing that Tencent has
managed to appoint a new chief AI scientist, bringing over
from Open Ai. From the reporting being done by outlets
like Reuter's that there's some new EUV or some sort
of lithography equipment built in China by people who've come
from ASML and gone to work back in China. How
is the talent war and the brain drains something that
(39:53):
you're keeping an eye on.
Speaker 16 (39:55):
Yeah, well, I think that we underestimate China to our like.
They are some of the smartest scientists and engineers in
the world, and we shouldn't be surprised that they sometimes
join Western companies and then often go back and are
able to compete very effectively. And so I think that
bedding that China will do something is always the smart
(40:17):
strategy versus bedding that they can't do something, and so
we should change our approach to account for that.
Speaker 1 (40:23):
Your approach is about taking on EUV lithroography in a
different sort of ways and means you've been getting a
billion dollar valuation already. You're looking to restore American leadership
when it comes to actually the equipment needed to manufacture semiconductors.
What is your relationship right with the US government right now?
How much are they taking this into account and how
have things changed since we last spoke.
Speaker 16 (40:45):
Yeah, our relationship for many years has been very close
with the US government, and so I wouldn't say, there's
really been much change. We collaborate very very closely with them,
and they've been some of our biggest supporters, and frankly,
we wouldn't be where we are right now now about
a very very close relationship with the government.
Speaker 1 (41:03):
You use, as you say, particle acceleration X ray wavelengths
to really etch intricate detail basically patterns into wafers. How
do those that are cynical and what you're building, how
do you give the proof points give us something tangible
that you've managed to make strides in to be able
to ensure that maybe we don't even need ASML let
alone Taiwan Taiwanese produced chips.
Speaker 13 (41:26):
Yeah, so there's a.
Speaker 16 (41:28):
Lot that still needs to be done, but I think
that we're very excited over the coming months, in the
next couple of years to begin actually showing some pretty
big leaps. We've been able to go from sort of
zero to having our own working prototype tool in three years,
and that is sort of similar to what was just
announced from China yesterday. Actually on my x account this morning,
(41:49):
we went and posted like one of the key things
that was actually in that reporting yesterday is a doubt
that China will be able to catch up on the
advanced optics required for these systems. And we just went
and publicly released some research that we did two years
ago on how China is actually already achieving these optics domestically,
and so the efforts that are going on here are
(42:12):
far greater than is really sort of at the public level.
I yesterday's news is really only the start of this.
Speaker 3 (42:19):
So what does that mean for me?
Speaker 1 (42:21):
Maybe easing restrictions on H two hundreds. I mean, all
of this, we've seen a clampdown on EUV lithography from
ASML going into China from the US pressure.
Speaker 3 (42:31):
Is it all too late? James?
Speaker 16 (42:34):
I don't think anything's too late, And I think that
when Jensen says China is only a nanosecond behind, like
he's correct. And so I think that our focus at
the US needs to be focused on what we're very
good at, which is sprinting. Like we can play a
defensive strategy, but we need to have an offensive, as
I said, leap ahead strategy as well, and that's the
(42:56):
role that we are trying to play.
Speaker 1 (42:58):
James Proud, CEO of Substrate, trying to leap when it
comes to chip equipment making we appreciate it.
Speaker 3 (43:04):
Now coming up, Trump.
Speaker 1 (43:05):
Media shares absolute popping as it makes another huge pivot,
this time into nuclear fusion details. Nexts bluebo Tech. It's
time now for talking tech. First up, Indian company are
(43:26):
our E Semiconductor seen it shares surge more than fifty
five thousand percent in just twenty months, but the rally
is now showing signs of a strain. According to sources,
the Securities and Exchange Board of India has actually begun
to examine the company's shares surge for potential wrongdoing. Plus,
so far It's launched its own US dollar stable point
called Sofar USD. The company says it plans to make
(43:48):
so Far USD available to its members in the coming
months and its positioning the token as a tool for
twenty four to seven settlement cross card networks. Retailers and
businesses and North Korean hackers are said to have stolen
a record two billion dollars worth of crypto this year,
according to a report from Chain Analysis, and the country's
hall from crypto theft has risen more than fifty twenty
(44:09):
twenty four, it says, records began. This country is estimated
to have boosted its cryptospoils to at least six point
seventy five billion. Talking of crypto and maybe a bit
of a pivot, Trump Media has agreed to combine with
Thae Technologies in an all stock transaction valued at more
than six billion dollars. The companies say it will create
one of the world's first publicly traded nuclear fusion companies,
(44:31):
for plans to construct the first utility scale fusion power
plant next year.
Speaker 3 (44:36):
NOMG Energy reporter Will Wade joins me.
Speaker 1 (44:38):
Now, a social media crypto asset management company is merging with.
Speaker 3 (44:44):
A nuclear fusion company. Let's theorize as to what the
upside is for nuclear fusion. Why are they thinking this
is a good bet?
Speaker 17 (44:51):
You know, this is not the deal I was expecting
to see when I got to work this morning. The
pieces I didn't intuitively put them together, and I still don't.
But what I do know is so Tae's been doing
us for a long time. There's a lot of companies
working on fusion. THAA is making good progress. But one
(45:12):
of the things they said is they're getting almost up
to three hundred million dollars out of this right up front,
and they need it. Their CEO there was a call
this morning and he said, capital is becoming one of
our problems, Like really, because infusion, physics and engineering and
technology has always been the problem. So saying we really
need the money is an interesting development.
Speaker 1 (45:34):
There is a lot of money, a lot of ambition
chasing nuclear fusion. Sam Altman is in there, Jeff Bezos,
a lot of them have been involved in fusion startups.
What's THA done differently?
Speaker 13 (45:44):
Tha is using a different kind of fuel.
Speaker 17 (45:46):
Most of the fusion companies want to use these two
hydrogen isotopes to tium tritium. Tritium is hard to get
and it's kind of radioactive.
Speaker 13 (45:55):
THA.
Speaker 17 (45:56):
Yeah, THA is using hydrogen boron, which is not radioactive
and it's easy to get.
Speaker 13 (46:02):
So they talk about that as.
Speaker 17 (46:04):
One of their differentiators. But you know, really the key
for all of them is the super strong magnets to
keep this, you know, one hundred something million degree ball
of plasma contained.
Speaker 3 (46:17):
Where are we in nuclear fusion? And it's efficacy.
Speaker 1 (46:20):
I mean, you're a man who has great patience, you
work in the world in nuclear.
Speaker 17 (46:24):
Yeah, I mean nuclear moves slow, and fusion moves even
slower than that. But the joke on fusion is that
it's always twenty years away, and it's getting closer. There's
a couple of companies that are you know, making you know,
tangible steps. There's Commonwealth Fusion. They're actually working already on
what they say will be their first commercial plant. Now
(46:47):
they haven't actually achieved a stable fusion reaction yet, but
they're getting close with their demo plant. Tae says they're
going to start building their first commercial plant next year
with the money from this deal. And there's again on
the call today, they talked about first power in twenty
thirty one. He didn't define that, so I'm curious how
(47:07):
exactly what that means. But we could have some real
fusion power plants sometime in the twenty thirties.
Speaker 1 (47:14):
It's gonna be fascinating to see how the current Trump
media CEO, Devin Nunaz, teams up with the Fusion CEO.
They're gonna be co CEOs of this business together. It's
been great getting your breakdown on just the energy and
the innovation side of it all. Bloomberg's Will weighe he's
always there for us when we need one talk nuclear.
Speaker 3 (47:32):
But that does it for this edition of Bloomberg Tech.
You don't want to forget to check our podcast. You
can find it on the terminal as well as online
not Apple, Spotify, and iHeart. For now, Blue Origin, the
flight has been canceled. We'll see if that is reconvened
for tomorrow. Stick with us. This is BlueBag Tech
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
The Bobby Bones Show
Listen to 'The Bobby Bones Show' by downloading the daily full replay.