Episode 270- A Tale of Two Tariffs. A Conversation with Bill Michels.

The global economy stands at a crossroads as tariffs reshape international trade, and few understand these seismic shifts better than Bill Michels, returning to The Common Bridge with crucial insights on what's happening at our ports, in manufacturing, and throughout supply chains worldwide.

Shipping containers sit idle at major ports like Los Angeles and Houston as businesses hesitate to import goods, unsure what tariffs they'll face. "Tariffs are breaking the shipping model," Michels explains. "We're not just paying more, we're seeing fewer goods shipped." This uncertainty creates a troubling ripple effect - customs backlogs delay product releases, truck drivers lose loads, and consumers face higher prices or empty shelves.

Perhaps most provocative is Michels' assessment of reshoring manufacturing. While tariffs might indeed bring factories back to American soil, he forcefully challenges the notion this will create significant employment: "If I'm going to reinvest in a factory, it's going to be lights out, automated. I'm going to use robots that work 24-7, don't have union problems, and I'm not going to hire tons of people." He cites GE's billion-dollar automated factory and Taiwan Semiconductor's Arizona plant as examples of modern manufacturing that creates minimal jobs despite massive investment.

The conversation takes fascinating detours into how AI is transforming business negotiations (Michels' company has developed negotiation-training avatars) and the complex interplay between immigration policies and economic outcomes. As agricultural workers face deportation amidst existing labor shortages, Michels warns we could see both inflation and reduced GDP as labor-intensive industries struggle to find workers.

Join us for this thought-provoking discussion that cuts through political rhetoric to examine the real-world consequences of trade policies. Whether you're a business owner navigating supply chain disruptions or simply curious about how global trade impacts your daily life, this episode delivers crucial context for understanding our economic future.

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