Jason Bramblett 12-16-23 Part 1

Jason Bramblett helps you understand and profit from Real Estate in the Piedmont Triad of North Carolina.

Episode Transcript

(00:01):
I need somebody, not just anybody, you know, I need someone.
Good morning, Welcome to the JasonBramble Real Estate Show. Hope everybody is
enjoying their Saturday and well hopping aroundthe old Christmas tree. Just about at
this point we're getting right to theend. It is just about the most

(00:22):
festive time of the year. Thisis the worst time of the year,
the worst. The reason is becauseyou get up every morning and you see
all the wonderful gifts under the treeand you can't touch on one. This
is true. You have to justsit there and stare at them for like
a weekend having fair I think thatone's that, and I think, and
do they just sit there and youcan't touch it. This is when all
the fairness auditors show up as well. You know, it's like, wait

(00:44):
a minute, why does why doesJohnny have six and I've only got you
know, three, And and thenthey'll try to justify it like, well,
yours are bigger than Johnny's, right, you know, you know they're
pulling, pulling stuff off from underneathand trying to look at tags. Yes,
this is the worst one. Ittruthfully, the waiting part is that.
But you know it was getting excitingfor the end of the year and
Christmas and all those fun things andthe end of the year. So how

(01:07):
was your twenty twenty three will bea question? This is always a good
time to look back, reflect doall those things, and well, are
you going to change anything in twentytwenty four or is it going to be
a repeat? It's going to bethe same thing. Well, hopefully not.
I know this. I was thinkingkind of reminiscing the last week.
I took a little vacation and Ijust thinking how much the world's changed.

(01:29):
You know, think about nineteen twentyfour America and we're sitting here in twenty
twenty four America and just all thechanges and you know, for everything from
transportation, how we lived, howwe worked, to goodness, the robots
taking over all the world and allthe things. And think about twenty one
twenty four, what's that going tobe like? It'd be I don't know.

(01:52):
It might be we might just reallybe living in a matrix, or
we might find out that we alreadyhave been living in a matrix. Spec
technology will push faster and faster andfaster. I mean, there's stop,
no, I don't see. Ithink the only thing that could slow it
down at this point is electricity.That's about it. I think if we
lost power, that's going to bethe biggest hintrance to short of another pandemic.

(02:15):
I failed to see how anything isgoing to slow Now I'm with you
one hundred percent. So all right, real Estate twenty twenty four, We're
going to get into some predictions.Of course, they're just mine. They're
not based off anything other than wellme watching the trends right here in the
triad and talking to a lot offriends throughout the United States and Canada and
you know, kind of masterminding withthem and see what their thoughts are,

(02:38):
what they think is coming. Andwell, I'm just going to share those
things with you and you can makeyour own predictions and it'll be fun.
It'll be a good way to endthe year. But really, what I
want to challenge you for is,you know, if twenty twenty three wasn't
your year for whatever it was youwanted to accomplish, let's talk about it
in twenty twenty four and let's makea change. Let's do something different.

(03:00):
I think it's the best time ofthe year to do that. It's just
a good I don't know what's theright word lying in the sand, if
you will, just to say,hey, you know what, I'm not
where I wanted to be, ornot what it's not even where I want
to be. It's just it's notthe way I thought it was going to
be. And is there something Icould do differently, whether that be the

(03:21):
leader of your business, the leaderof your you know, your team,
and or the leader of your family. What could we do different? What
could I do different to maybe getcloser to that future version of yourself?
And you know, hey, we'lljust talk about it. You can go
to Jason RAYWLT real Estate if you'relooking for houses out there thinking about selling
years this year we still have wellvery limited time, but our cash offers

(03:44):
are still coming in, so there'sfolks that are going to make the end
of the year deadline. If youhave some cash, it is still doable
to get out there and go forit. But or the number three three,
six, five, five, threezero seven nine six do you have
us acall? Well, I wouldsuspect that while there is probably the one
of instance, there's probably not alot of people who are putting up their

(04:05):
homes in the next two weeks forsale, probably not a lot of people
buying not you know, so whydon't we push ahead into twenty twenty four?
And you know, I know thingsare constantly changing, but you have
been experienced in this market for aslong as any real estate agent here and
successful as well. So based onwhat you see, what do you feel
like is coming in twenty twenty four. I think it's gonna start off very

(04:28):
much like it did in twenty twentythree, and that's gonna be a little
bit of a slow on the slowerside I in it. You know,
it's I don't know, it's gonnabe interesting, it's I do think we're
gonna see rates take a little bitmore of a drop that probably not any
more than they have and we've beenvery fortunate last uh, you know,
last seven to ten days, theydropped as much as they've dropped in a

(04:50):
long time, so which is wonderful. Probably won't make many more changes during
you know, just holidays, Christmasis on people looking at it on the
radar that at this point they're like, want to get into the season.
But come the first year, yeah, I'm hopeful for a six point five
percent rate. I think it probablyholds till March if to if one of

(05:15):
two things happened, so they couldthrow gas on a fire and drop it
all the way down below six percent. If that happens, you know,
housing markets are going to go nuts, you know, to go from eight
and a quarter to six and basicallywhatever, we'll just call it one hundred
days, that is going to getsome people off the fence, Yeah,
for sure. And boy, thosethose payments just started looking way different.

(05:40):
Like nobody really cared so much aboutthe payments when the interest rates were under
four because it was just so unbelievablehow cheap money was. But when you
go from eight and a quarter tosix, it's a sizeable difference. That's
you know, kind of a chunkierpiece of money, if you will.
Well, it's a big difference inthe home that you can afford as well.

(06:00):
Oh absolutely, I mean yeah,you start gaining extra bedrooms, yeah,
you know, and some more squareyou know, square feet, and
or a garage or something along thoselines. Or they could back off,
and that probably will be based uponsome polling that they'll be doing. I'm
sure they'll be starting that. Youknow, it is an election propaganda year,
so we'll just see how that allshakes out. But I think if

(06:23):
the exit polls kind of I don'tknow if if the powers that be start
to see what they want in thetrends with what you know, where they
want maybe some of those votes togo and or where they need them to
go, then they'll probably leave italone. If they don't, then they'll

(06:44):
probably start manipulating some math and saying, hey, we can fix this.
Right, We're in here to fightfor you, because that's what they're all
doing. I've never met more politiciansthat fight for each other and for us,
right, They're always fighting somebody.Yet everything you fix, you break
something else. It seems that isso true. And don't forget we are.
They're useful idiots out here. Andthere's a great book you can read

(07:05):
on that if you don't know whata useful idiot is. But anyway,
it is some of us that canstill by voting. And I say some
because not all of you do.And you know, if you don't go
vote, then you really, wellyou really aren't doing anything to help steer
the ship, to be honest withyou, but hey, at least it's
an opportunity to voice your opinion andit's still the greatest country out there.

(07:30):
You can do that because I've definitelybeen to sum where you don't even get
that at all. Zero. Sohence, at least we're somewhat useful and
we can take take action out there. But you know, hey, it's
how the game's played. It's alwayshow it's been played. They're going to
start doing some pulling. They're goingto find out what the consumer strength is
throughout everything. They'll look at thejobs market, they're going to look at

(07:53):
the real estate market, They're goingto look at, you know, just
consumer confidence in general. Based offall those algorithm and all the powers that
be, then they're going to decideshould we go up should we go down?
And I don't think anybody wants,you know, it to go down
so fast that houses go up andanother one hundred thousand dollars in value,

(08:13):
you know, or the average houseyou know, I know it is,
I no know, I'm doing themath in my head right now. Well,
I will say, I mean,if you're if you're okay with relocating,
I mean, if they went uphigh enough, there are some places
that you can go and well youmight be able to live the rest of
your days out on this little rock. There's a number for everything. There

(08:33):
is a number for everything. Matterof fact, we have a mutual friend
of ours that lives pretty far awayfrom here, and and and and does
does pretty pretty good with that lifestyle. And then you know, hey,
there are there are lesser expensive placesto live than America, for sure,
and if you have the ability todo that, well, hey good for
you. But I do think we'regoing to see more homeowners that would cash

(08:58):
out that been kind of waiting tosee what's gonna happen. And so I
think a move in interest rates inthat six if it did spike up,
I don't even think it had tospike up the prices a lot. Even
if prices let's just say went uptwo and a half to seven and a
half percent, I think you'd seesome folks out there that would jump on

(09:20):
it. And so what's that mean, Probably, like I don't know,
twenty five thousand dollars up in value. It's gonna be fascinating to watch.
I do know that I was fascinatedthroughout, Like you know, twenty twenty
to twenty twenty two, I waswatching it. It was just you couldn't
It was almost like watching a gaspomp. Housing every month, I was
like, is that really? Isthat true? Could that be right?

(09:43):
I mean, could that actually beright? Could could we be? In
some months we were seeing more appreciationin the triad in one month than we
saw from two thousand and nine tonineteen in a decade. I mean,
that's just talk about compounding. Imean, was absolutely amazing. So my

(10:03):
biggest prediction is this twenty twenty fourelection is definitely going to be the most
you know, it is going tobe the most interesting and fascinating anything I
watch. Probably another year of crazy, hopefully not on not a lot you
know, nonsense out there. Butyou know, who knows, you know,
I don't know. Twenty I thinkit's just it's just kind of what
we're going to see. Who knows. Maybe by maybe by twenty twenty eight,

(10:28):
we'll be back to just you know, they'll be doing duels out in
the lawn at Washington to see whowins. I can't, I just can't.
I can't. It's the hardest year, is just I just I can't.
It's not at Christmas. Let's waittill next year. Okay, all
right, fair enough, we'll leaveit alone. We'll leave it alone.
Is Yeah, I know, itis so true, and it's a hard
you know, we've been doing radioa minute, and as all these election

(10:50):
years are the hardest, just can'tI think every four years it gets harder.
And yeah, I think all mydeath threats have come during election.
It's in I don't even run foroffice, so it's fascinating. I'm just,
you know, just the real esticateguy here. But anyway, so
I used to kind of said this, but let me just clarify. I

(11:11):
assume that you predict that if wesee these interest rates, you know,
hanging this six percent range or whatever, that compounded with you know, how
much appreciation we've seen in the triadover the past two or three years,
that people are are heading out tosell. Yeah, I think so.
I think it'll be the uh,it'll probably be the greatest launch in inventory
that we've probably seen since twenty eleven. And I mean, guys, this

(11:35):
is all just a prediction. Imean, you know, who knows.
I mean, there's busy and thingsthat can happen in the world, but
I do know that we talk thethousands of people every month and a lot
of them are in that watch state. They don't particularly like the house that
they're in, they don't particularly likethe neighborhood that they're in, but something,
something hasn't moved enough to where they'relike, Okay, I'm gonna take

(11:56):
action. I think a good twopercent drop an interest rate, but that's
the push them over the hill.That's to push them over to cliff,
especially when we start talking to ourowners that are sixty plus, because you
know, I mean, I meannot that I think they're going to die
tomorrow, but you do realize thatyour working income time period is windling down

(12:20):
for sure, sure right, Andone thing about compounding, it takes time
to compound. And maybe it's sixty, you may or may not have as
many years as you think. Ihope you all love to be one hundred
and fifty and hey, no bigdeal, but logically tells me probably not.
And so those owners, I reallythink if they see the interest rate

(12:43):
drop and the especially even if pricesgo up, I still think they'll take
action, and that probably you couldwork it down to probably the fifty five
year age group as well, alittle more of a gamble on their side,
because they still, you know,for most of them, are going
to have anywhere between ten to fifteenyears still left to work if they choose

(13:03):
to. So I don't know it'sgonna be it's gonna be fun. I
don't know. Like I said,it's all predictions. But conversationally, the
people were speaking with which are alot of you guys are saying, we're
watching, we're watching close. Ifit did this, we would be a
hand raiser. We'd be somebody inconsideration to say, yeah, we would

(13:24):
sell our house. We would,we would take action. Now, this
is assuming that the world doesn't meltdown because it happens to be the you
know, electioneer as obvious we weretalking about. And there's other, you
know whatever, some type of craziness. I don't know that the world's going
to buy another pandemic. They mayor may not. But you know,
there's all kinds of rumors of warand all that, and so there's all

(13:46):
different kinds of crazy stuff that canhappen. But I mean, there's really
actually no limit to what could happenthere in the good old presidential election.
But I, as my friend wouldsay, seeds and bullets, Jason,
seeds and bullets, right, it'saside from that, Aside from something that

(14:09):
really is outside of the influence ofthe real estate market. Should those raids
drop, We're talking to hundreds andhundreds of owners all throughout the triad that
says, yeah, that would thatwould hit my target, and I would
definitely look at looking put in ahouse on market selling, which would be
great for a lot of our rentersout here. You know that rents high,

(14:33):
Yeah, it is high, itis. I was just talking to
some of there. The two twobedroom, two bath condo apartment, if
you will, like nineteen hundred amonth. Yeah, sounds about that.
It is. It is gone.I mean since the last time I rented
five six years ago. It isastounding how much. I mean, a
house that I rented for thirteen ninetyfive five years ago is now renting for

(14:56):
twenty two hundred. It's insane.Wow. Yeah, that's uh, that's
that's a that's a strong increase.This is a strong increase. And I
think a lot of folks are gettinga little bit kind of road worn with
that, because, let's face it, the amenities probably haven't changed for you,
you know, I mean as faras like the apartment complex probably didn't

(15:18):
like do you know Taco Tuesday,you know what I mean, they probably
didn't add a lot of value.And then if you're renting a home,
I mean, I will say I'vehad great tenants over the years that have
actually improved our properties with permission.People do not fix up somebody's house,
okay, without asking. I mean, you know, the window gardens,

(15:41):
great for you, wild kingdom,may not be good for your landlord.
So if you're going to do something, please ask permission. But I've had
some great tenants that that actually treatedthe property just like they owned it.
So they're just amazing people right andasked permission to do certain things. And
then you have some that go theother way. But all in all,

(16:03):
you hope that you make good choices, yes for sure. So anyway,
all right, we're gonna do this. We're gonna take our quick time out
here that you're listening to the JasonBrownot Real Estate Show. We'll be back
in just a minute.