Jason Bramblett 2-23 Part 1

Jason Bramblett helps you understand and profit from Real Estate in the Piedmont Triad of North Carolina.

Episode Transcript

(00:01):
I need somebody, not just anybut you know, I need someone.
Good morning, and welcome to theJason Burnot your Real Estate Show. Everybody
is enjoying their Saturday as we diveinto all things well, real estate,
life, excitement, all the goodstuff that you can get into. And
today we're gonna talk about some numbers. You know, numbers are fun.

(00:25):
We're gonna have a little fun withthe show today too, but they can
be a little you know, itcan be a little misleading sometimes. You
know, there's some very cleverly writtenreal estate headlines in the news today.
I feel like there are times youcan use numbers to prove both sides of
an argument. Yeah, truthfully,I think you're right, and it just

(00:45):
depends on which side of that argumentyou want to be saying numbers, but
you can use it to explain,you know, two different theories, so
many different things. So we're gonnawe're gonna see if we can help you
out with those things today and maybegive you some I don't know, clarity,
And I mean that's really all I'mtrying to do is get you clear
on whatever, make you feel goodabout the decision that you're attempting to make.

(01:07):
Or about to make before you jumpin right whatever that is, but
obviously pertaining to real estate, andthen you know, do the research and
then know the numbers, know whatyou're know what you're diving into, and
know what the I don't know,know the real math if you will,
and not just you know what youthink or I don't know, the little

(01:27):
soundbit you heard or the you know, the real or the short video or
the whatever the TikTok or whatever clevernessis out there today. There's a lot
of there's some creative people. Imean, I've always known it, but
boy, social media really amplifies it, does it not. Yeah, like

(01:47):
the whole football conspiracy and just allkinds of very interesting things out here in
the world. Oh yeah, thecolor thing that got blown up. Yeah
yeah, So there's just all kindsof fun stuff out there. But you
know, social media brain is reallyit's a real thing. And you know,
I don't know if it's the dumbfactor or the lazy factor. For

(02:10):
us humans, I think we tendto well maybe a little both. Sometimes
we tend to steer more toward what'seasy as opposed to putting a little effort
there. We call that path ofleast resistance. Yes we do, Yes,
we do for sure, yes,And so we're going to talk talk
about that, and we still wantto get you a clear path. It

(02:31):
doesn't need to be difficult, butget you on a clear path and then
bust some of the myths that maybe lingering or that are lingering that I
have seen out here in the headlines. And you know, not just I
mean, everything's media and it's amazingto me, but what are trusted sources
these days? You know, that'suh, it's almost becoming mob rule.

(02:55):
It's however, many sources agree whatyou agree with. Yeah, he's trusting
because I agree with him. Yes, yes, yes, I think that
that's that's just some accuracy there.So well maybe you'll agree with me and
uh and Keith as we work throughsome of the minutia of real estate and
talk about some of the headlines.So to get more information to look at

(03:17):
houses, all the pretty houses.We got all the houses on our website,
Jason Bramlett real estate dot com.Some really nice, uh you know,
two and three million dollar houses.If you're bored and you just want
to really like look at cool stuff, or maybe you want to buy one
that'd be even better. You cancall me for that now, all right,
give us a call. But really, great homes hitting the market every

(03:38):
day. Inventory is coming in everysingle day, and so if you've been
a frustrated home potential buyer in twentytwenty three, twenty twenty four's got some
new stuff. So I would saycheck it out. And then, of
course you got a question or youdo want to see one of those amazing
homes, call the office five five, three, zero seven nine six.

(03:59):
So let's start with one of theseheadlines and have you break it down for
us a little bit. This wasthe one that resonated most with me.
Says that home sales are down inJanuary of twenty twenty four compared to January
of twenty twenty three. So doesthat mean a little bit of a rocky
start for owners in twenty twenty four? Is it? Is that to or
false? What's your take on that? Yeah, yeah, so, you
know, like all good things,there is a little bit of truth in

(04:24):
there for sure, and then there'sa little bit of blowny in there too,
you know it it is you know, it's if you do anything with
social media. The word that wehave there is it's a good what hook
you gotta get you hook? Youhave to have a there has to be
a little bit of truth there orit's on it. You can't do it.

(04:45):
Yeah, that's right, that's right. So the statement is true,
home sales were down, But whatdoes that mean? That is what I
want to talk about, because itreally it's all about It's really all about
your perspective of the market. Imean really your your sense of what's going

(05:06):
on in the world, good orbad, dictates a lot of the decisions
that you make. I think itwas Einstein, I think who said it,
whether if you choose to live ina hostile world or a whatever peaceful
world. It wasn't that, butit was something similar. It's like that
that difference in perspective is like everythingright, you know, It's like it's

(05:30):
like hardly anything else matters. Soif you think it's like a really optimistic
world and things are not hostile andthey're good, then usually it's like pretty
good. And if you think everybody'scoming to get you, I guess what
they're coming to get you. They'reright there, they're right behind you.
Be careful now, But it isit is true. So what what does
this mean that what is this perspectivefor you in real estate? And you

(05:53):
know, I mean I think aboutthis. I mean you may know somebody
that is selling a home and maybethey know they took less than the asking
price for their house, and andthat is all you need. That was
enough right there? That confirmed foryou. Yes, that is it.
It is over. It is superbad. I just read this headline and
said home sales were down in Januarycompared to last year, and my friends

(06:15):
sold their house for less money.So therefore it's nuclear. Yes, hundred
present, it is true. Itis this is this is not going the
way that we wanted to do,or somebody else could be thinking, yes,
sure, you know it's it's gonnabe something I have to deal with
and maybe there's gonna be a dealin the house. And I'm so glad
I waited. I'm so glad thatyou know, we were so short.

(06:39):
I was timing the market out,honey. I was perfect. I was
the savant of real estate and nailedit. You nailed it. You nailed
it, and you are the heroof the family, and you get to
go around and do all the youknow, see, I told you,
sos and I was writing da dada and whatever, and hey, it's
cool, it's gonna fill it fillsup your your confidence tank. But whatever

(07:03):
your perspective is, just know thatthis is kind of the AMMO that you've
been searching for and a lot oftimes subconsciously, okay, like you don't
even know this is going on,so subconscious you know, below your conscious
awareness, like these are. Thisis your program running into background. That

(07:25):
is just kind of the way you'rewired, and it seeks out this stuff,
right, it seeks out this information. Peter Wasson said it kind of
this way. He called this confirmationbiased, right, they said, it's
the tendency of people to favor informationthat confirms our strengths and strengthens their beliefs

(07:46):
and their values. But okay,but hear this. The second part is
the big aha. And once thathappens, it is difficult to dislodge.
Once affirmed. I would say forsome of you, it would seem what
impossible to dislodge some of these beliefsand look and sometimes back in the old

(08:09):
days, we used to call thatstubbornness. Uh now it's it's real fancy,
it's you know, confirmation bias.But you're we are. It's like
we're searching around for things in ourbrain is seeking that data to what confirm
things, to what make us safe. That's what it's there for. It's
there to keep you alive. It'sthere to keep you safe. And so

(08:31):
when you hear a little bit thatconfirms maybe what you had hoped and you
get that confirmation, it puts youinto relaxing. I was right, I'm
glad I didn't dodge the bullet.All these little things that we do and
these these little emotions that come overus, but if we go back to
it, sometimes we're we're in comfortover things that are totally alie like not

(08:58):
even true, but but it wasairing on the side of that's what we
believed, right, and so we'relike, it's got to be right,
easier, it's easier. What iseasier, Yes, for sure, it's
way easier than like, you know, I don't know, challenging your belief,
yeah, or we're not going togo there right right right, or
like I don't know, doing alittle work and effort, and yeah,

(09:18):
for sure. But you know,I think when you hear that little bit
that confirms and you get that reallylet me say it this way. Let
me put it to you this way. I really want to buy a house,
but I'm scared to take what thenext step forward. And then let's
just say you read this or youhear this on the radio, and let's

(09:41):
present this in a little different way. Home sales are down in January of
twenty twenty four compared to twenty twentythree. It could be what the rocky
start for the homeowners, right,and your brain goes ding ding ding.
This is exactly what what I wantedto hear. But if we wanted to

(10:03):
change that a little bit, ifwe wanted to give you a little different
perspective, and let me read itto you this way. This time.
January twenty twenty four, real estatenumbers are in for the fourteen county Triad
real estate community. Home sales droppedby three homes compared to January of twenty

(10:26):
twenty three. Now, if youknow anything about the Triad, and you
know fourteen counties, fourteen counties isbigger than one street block. Yes,
there's one point eight million people thatlive in the Triad. The sales differentiator
are three houses? Three houses?That is it? So is the statement

(10:50):
true that home sales are down inJanuary of twenty twenty four. Yes,
it is true. But if Isaid, hey, we sold three less
houses in January in the entire fourteencounty area that has one point eight million
people living in it, are youconcerned? No? I think not at

(11:15):
all. But boy, it's agood little zinger headline. It got some
people's attention, and it got somepeople kind of fired up, and so
I think, yes, it's youwhat you put that information out. It's
like, hey, you heard ithere first, how to freak you out?
Media channel number one, right,that's what people are what fighting for

(11:37):
your attention and fighting for your attentiontoday more so than any time in the
history of attention, probably right,because there's more ways to consume that information.
Oh absolutely, I mean there aresocial media channels that I don't I
didn't even I don't even know these. I mean, it's it's unbelievable.
A new one every week, everyweek, every single week, or a

(11:58):
new widget of some thing to whatgrab your attention. And I actually,
you know, we do quite abit of advertising. And I hired a
new company to help with some onlinestuff and they they they said, well,
we're gonna try some things on Microsoft. I'm like, okay, what

(12:20):
what what is? What does thatmean? Like, you know, I
didn't know they owned Being. Ididn't know that, so I didn't know
they owned that search engine. Actuallyit's still out there, guys, because
I didn't know either. But itis. But because it's not uh,
it's not the word we use.We don't ever say, hey, you
know, go bing me. No, it's go google it, right,
I mean that's what we say,go google this. It's the same thing

(12:41):
with for example, Kleenex. Kleenexis a brand of facial tissue, but
we've now decided to refer to allfacial tissue on the planet as Kleenex.
Yes, yes, very very goodword for them. Whoever owns that probably
I don't know proc say, Igoogled it. It might have been on
Being, It might have been onGoogle, It might have been on Yahoo

(13:01):
Search. It might have been onYeah big you know feeling. There there's
a duck duck go yep, yeah, yeah, I've seen commercial. There's
a million of them. But wejust say googling it. Yeah, very
interesting, very interesting. So anyway, guys, look, I guess the
sad thing if that's what you wantto call it is, you know,
taking the action does. I meanit does make everything easier, like do

(13:24):
get out there and do some stuff, dig in and you've got to do
a little bit of the research,and it makes all the difference in the
world. So at the end ofthe day, we're not talking about some
kind of collapse. This is thisis sort of a well crafted headline or
a lot of to do about wellkind of nothing. Yeah, kind of
nothing I had to take, butI guess that's what it is. So

(13:46):
there, there's there was there inthe downturn. There was a newspaper.
Yeah, there was newspapers even backin the day. Uh, but they
had printed an article that said thathome prices and home values were just plummeting
it in Forsyth County and it wasthe end of the world and dah dah,
da dah and all this and foreclosureswere on the rise. And and

(14:09):
then when you went in there anddug in, it's like, okay,
it was kind of the same thing. It's like, yeah, home foreclosures
were on the rise, and itwas like six houses and I'm like,
okay, it's a city of threehundred thousand people. Like if it was
even four homes in one neighborhood.I don't know that it'd be that catastrophic,

(14:30):
right, but that doesn't sell well, all right, and so you
got to get that attention. Ibelieve they call that clickbait, now,
that is right. They do callthat clickbait. That's right. It's a
it's a new that's the new,the new lingo that's out here. So
you know, not only no crashin either scenario, and no crash coming

(14:52):
that I can foresee. And andlook, I've been doing this a long
time. I can't predict the future. Because had I been predict real estate
future, I would have told allyou guys to buy every house that was
on the planet in twenty eighteen,and we all could have moved to the
islands and started our own new country. It would have been very nice and

(15:13):
warm, and we could have hadan island that we might could have even
bought Hawaii. Who knows. Butif anybody had known that home values were
going to double in four years andthere was this thing coming called a pandemic
and it was going to change prettymuch everything. Yeah, but guess what,
I don't think anybody really nailed ator called it so I'm happy to

(15:33):
report that this change of three housesless sold in January twenty for twenty four
has not actually affected home values.Believe it or not. Even with the
devastation of selling three less homes infourteen counties, home values actually went up
in the month of January. Andso I am and I think we will

(15:58):
see if the trend follows the exactsame trend line that we had last year
by March, maybe April, butshould be by March, we will actually
hit an all new record high ofhomes in the triad again. And it's
just ticking right along like it should, so we'll be I think the last

(16:19):
high was three hundred and twenty eightthousand dollars average. I think we'll get
three probably three forty five this year, somewhere right in that range. So
projection is that's that's where we'll see. Maybe it's maybe it takes till April,
maybe even May. Maybe we haveto wait till the kids get out
of school. But I do thinkwe're going to see that trend. So

(16:40):
as you listen to the show,we're going to give you more information as
to why it may be a bettertime to get in consideration of purchasing because
well, interest rates can be refinanced. Paying top dollar for a house can't
really be undone. You know,you typically the owner's not going to give
you money, like if the ifthe price changes, it's just the way

(17:03):
it is. If you could workthat deal out that yeah, right,
is that one That is the oneyou gotta do. If you we need
to talk, if we yes,you're a great salesperson, and you work
that deal out. But look,it's I think what we saw at the
end of last year, it wasour normal seasonal dip of twenty twenty three,
our holiday dip if you will,nothing unusual. And now what the

(17:26):
trend is, we're seeing the pricescome right back on up. It's not
the whole doom and gloom. Ithink that we had a lot of out
there. And you know, ifwe look at the historical data, which
is what I like to look at, I look like, you know,
three five and ten years outside ofpandemics and things that are super unpredictable.
I mean most of the time,our real estate. The great thing about

(17:48):
art real estate and the triad,it's very consistent. It's it's a really
good solid long term investment to ownreal estate in the triad. Now,
if you do anything on a shortterm, you take the gamble of you
know, the luck of the draw. Sure, it's just the way it
is. You know, real estatewas an amazing thing to own all the

(18:10):
way up until like two thousand andsix and a half, and then in
two thousand and seven not so muchanymore, you know. And and in
twenty eighteen you just said, eh, it's well, just whatever, it's
okay. But then by twenty twentytwo your house had doubled. So those
people that rode that short little waiverare like, look like geniuses, right,

(18:30):
They're like all of them are like, well, this is easy.
You just buy it and sit onit for forty eight months and it's worth
double. Right, Yeah, notso much, not so much, but
it's it's good to think. Look, what I'm getting at is historical.
We're in our normal trends and cycles. Nothing that I'm seeing unusual here.
I think some of you have saidlet's just be patient and wait. I

(18:53):
think as we get through this yearand get into twenty twenty five, you're
going to find out that was anexpensive decison. And I won't say that
it won't work but I think thatyou need to really consider take a look
at the math, the cost towhere you're living as far as rent and
or whatever, and look at homeownership. Now, having said all that,

(19:15):
another thing that I will tell youthat works really, really well is
what we call doing the work.And just as I have said, dig
in and learn the information, there'salso things that we're going to dig into
on the back end. So we'lltalk about that. We're going to take
a quick time out that we're goingto dive into that after the break.
Here you're listening to the Jason BrownlodReal Estate Show. We'll be back in

(19:37):
just a minute.