October 15, 2025 • 38 mins
Chuck Zodda and Paul Lane share three exaggerations about the US economy right now. ChatGPT will soon allow erotica for verified adults. The rest of the world is following America's retreat on EVs. What are the recession signs to watch for? Netflix jumps into podcasts with Spotify deal.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Financial Exchange is produced by Money Matters Radio and
is hosted by employees of the Armstrong Advisory Group, a
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(00:20):
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Exchange with Chuck Zada and Paul Lane, your exclusive look
at business and financial news affecting your day, your city,
(00:42):
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donation today. This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck Zada
(01:06):
and Paul Lane.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
Chuck Paul Tucker with you here on the financial exchange.
We got stocks making a broad based rally today, not
really on any news. I haven't seen anything that's been notable,
but you've got a rally that's happening. Nonetheless, with the
Dow Jones Industrial Average about two hundred and seventy two
points a little more than half a percent. The S
and P five hundred index is up sixty four points
(01:34):
about one percent, and the nasdak can Posite up two
hundred and eighty seven points about one to quarter percent.
So again, all three major US indices are in the
green in a broad based rally that is taking place.
When we take a look through other markets that we
have had, there are the things that we typically are watching.
(01:55):
We got the ten year US Treasury down three tenths
of a basis point to four point one to nine percent,
kind of been stuck in a range over the last
week or so, no major movement, and quite honestly, probably
has something to do with the fact we haven't really
been getting much economic data.
Speaker 3 (02:11):
You know.
Speaker 2 (02:11):
It's if you're not getting that data, what are you
going to trade bonds on? If you're not getting inflation
or growth data. There's just not much out there that
we're seeing. Gold continuing its remarkable run up another forty
six dollars and forty cents, downs to forty two oh
nine and forty cents, its first time ever over for
forty two hundred dollars per ounce. We've got oil West
(02:35):
Text Intermediate up nine cents a barrel to fifty eight
seventy nine right now, but still below sixty. You're seeing this,
by the way, trickling into gas prices, which are down
another nine tenths of ascent overnight to three h six
and seven tenths of ascent. So we've now conclusively kind
of broken out of that three ten to three twenty
(02:56):
range that we were in, and quite honestly, with oil
prices where they are, pretty good chance, we're heading for
somewhere in the high twos per gallon on a national
average over the next week or so, so I think
that we're probably gonna break some lower ground there, which
is obviously good news for those of us who don't
(03:17):
live in oil country. If you happen to be listening
from you know, Houston, Texas, or well really most of Texas.
Quite honestly, Colorado, Western Pennsylvania. You might be sitting there saying, yeah,
it's kind of not great for us from you know,
a business perspective, since energy companies make up a lot
of those local economies. But in the aggregate, it's probably
(03:38):
net neutral. When we look at oil prices at this point,
with how much oil the US produces at this point
and exports, higher oil prices aren't the drag they used
to be, and lower oil prices aren't the boon they
used to be. It's kind of, hey, it helps some
parts of the country, hurts others, and overall probably nets
out the somewhere around neutral. Even though personally, with me
(04:00):
not being in the oil industry, I like the lower
oil prices, but I can understand why those of you
you know that might be employed in that industry are saying,
and it's not really great for us. Right now, let's
talk a little bit about artificial intelligence. We don't try
to talk about it for fifteen minutes a day on
the show. We just seem to because it's one of
the major topics driving the economy and markets right now.
(04:24):
And Ernie Tedesky, who we have had on the show
a couple times, I think and also used to be,
you know, previously on the Council of Economic Advisors. So
Ernie's you know, way smarter than all of us. And
he currently works at the Yale Budget Lab and they
did an analysis on artificial intelligence and its impact on
(04:45):
the US economy, and basically what they've found is, yeah,
there's definitely some investment that's happening here, and there's definitely
more use of AI that's happening right now, but overall
the difference is to the US GDP are very much
on the margins and not some huge wave that is
(05:06):
driving the overall economy. Is the point that he'll make,
even though it is driving markets, that is different from
driving the economy.
Speaker 4 (05:14):
Yeah, this one is tough because he framed his argument
based on GDP growth, which I get it, that's fair.
That's where you try to assess how the economy is
growing and what it's generating in terms of products and services.
And the tricky thing with the equation is so much
of the technology we end up importing its end products.
So in Vidia, for example, designs a chip that's ultimately
(05:36):
manufactured in Taiwan that's probably imported back here to service
data centers, so it kind of comes up in the
ledger as an import rather than though they created some
of the design value domestically. That's what's kind of fudging
the numbers a little bit. So that's that's one side
of the equation. The other is I don't think we're
seeing the full scale on the investment part of GDP.
(05:59):
So GDP to break it down two thirds of its
consumer spending, maybe a little bit more. Then the other
components are investment and and that can take all shapes
and forms government spending and the net between imports and
exports and so on the investment side. With all this
data center commitment, I think what we're at four hundred
billion for twenty twenty six and projected commitment for capital,
(06:21):
I feel like we're not perhaps seeing some of that
trickle through to some of this data that he's looking at.
Is that a fair rebuttal to make?
Speaker 2 (06:29):
Yeah, I think in some respects. I mean, ultimately, look,
when we talk about the places where AI can be
influencing the economy right now, the data center construction and
things like that is something that we've obviously covered. The
place where I think we still don't have anything conclusively
showing that it's causing an impact is an employment yeah,
where yes, you get these anecdotes that have popped up
(06:52):
predominantly in the tech industry, but even in some other
places you're starting to see him now, which does make
me think that, yeah, it's it's likely over the next
three to five years that you start to see AI
having a negative impact unemployment as more companies figure out
how to use it to replace in particular kind of
entry level job functions and things along those lines. So
(07:16):
I think that you could see that becoming you know,
more of a thing. And I guess where where I
get to is the same place that I've been, which is, yeah,
I know that there are you know, eight hundred million
people with chat, GPT you know user names now or
you know whatever you like, weekly users, weekly users, So
I know there's you know, almost a billion people world
(07:38):
wide that are using it. I know that you're seeing
more and more people using AI on a daily basis,
but ultimately it's not clear to me that it's generating
any kind of meaningful revenue at the moment. I mean,
open AI for all of the hype and everything, thirteen
Pace do like thirteen billion dollars in revenue on an
annual basis. So you kind of look at this and
you say, yeah, I get to the same place I've
(08:00):
been for a while. Now we're all gonna be using
AI way more. Five years from now, there's gonna be
a lot more spending on AI as a result of that.
It's unclear to me exactly who ends up being, you know,
the overall beneficiaries. But right now, both the producers of
the equipment, the producers of the technology, and the users
(08:21):
of the technology are being priced in as winners, and the.
Speaker 4 (08:25):
Energy providers to again some PROTHI neiss.
Speaker 2 (08:28):
And we're not all gonna be winners. No, like someone
always loses with new technologies. When when the internal combustion
engine was invented, the horse and buggy dudes were like,
oh crap, we're done. Like we're done.
Speaker 4 (08:41):
We better learn this.
Speaker 2 (08:42):
When the telephone was invented, the people that you know
delivered telegrams, you know, they were you know, out of business.
When when the stone tablet makers saw the printing press,
they said, oh no, what are we gonna do. We're
not No one's gonna want us carve in anything anymore.
They started making statues and stuff. Instead, they turned into artists.
(09:04):
It's not actually how it happened, but you know, one
can one can discuss. But this also then gets us to, hey,
is AI actually, like, are our companies and people actually
is interested at spending money on AI as the AI
(09:25):
companies want you to believe they are. And I want
to take a quick break, and then I want to
answer that question next, because all you hear from open
AI and Microsoft and this and that is oh like
these are you know, life changing, you know, company changing
technologies and everyone's gonna need them, and this and that,
(09:46):
And I've got my latest piece of evidence that maybe
that's not the case. Quick break, we'll discuss that. And
we've also got trivia next.
Speaker 1 (09:54):
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(10:15):
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This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 3 (10:36):
All right time.
Speaker 2 (10:37):
Make sure you're in the Financial Exchange and on this day.
Speaker 3 (10:40):
Back in nineteen ninety three, Fox aired the final episode of.
Speaker 2 (10:44):
The Chevy Chase Show.
Speaker 3 (10:46):
The Chevy Chase Show was a disaster for the network,
lasting only twenty nine episodes before cancelation. Chase was not
Fox's first choice to host the late night talk show.
The network's first choice was a legendary female country musician.
So our tribute question today, who is Fox's first choice
(11:06):
to host their late night talk show back in nineteen
ninety three? Once again, who is Fox's first choice to
host their late night talk show in nineteen ninety three?
Speaker 2 (11:17):
Uh?
Speaker 3 (11:18):
Be the third person today to text us at six
one seven three six two thirteen eighty five with correct answer,
and you'll win a Financial Exchange Show t shirt. Once again,
the third correct response today to Texas to the number
six one seven three six two thirteen eighty five, We'll
win that T shirt. See complete contest rules at Financial
(11:38):
Exchange Show dot com.
Speaker 2 (11:40):
So every AI company out there is telling you about
the amazing things that you can do with AI. It's
gonna revolutionize coding. Man. Oh no, it's it's not just
gonna revolutionize coding. It's gonna you're gonna be able to
fire half your workforce and replace them with computers. Oh
(12:02):
like okay, Like you know, and CEOs are leaning in
like yes, tell me more, like tell me and so
like you're kind of going down this path. And you
see this, you know all these news stories about it,
and it's like, AI is gonna do things we could
never dream of. AI is gonna do you know, these
amazing things. It's gonna make the world change. It's gonna
be totally different. And then Sam Altman comes out with
(12:25):
an ex post yesterday at twelve oh two pm. Hey,
we're gonna make some AI porn about time?
Speaker 1 (12:34):
What could go wrong?
Speaker 2 (12:35):
Chuck quote We made chat GPT pretty restrictive to make
sure we were being careful with mental health issues. Unquote.
Jerry's still out on that even think that you're sure
those facts are in evidence, Sam, But let's continue. We
realized this made it less useful enjoyable to many users
who had no mental health problems, but given the seriousness
(12:56):
of the issue, we wanted to get this right. I'm
sure you've gotten it right, Samuel. Now that we've been
able to mitigate the serious mental health issues and have
new tools, okay, we're gonna be able to safely relax
the restrictions in most cases in December, as we roll
out age gating more fully, and as part of our
treat adult users like adults principle, we will allow even
(13:16):
more like erotica for verified adults. So, couple things that
I know about business. When your core business isn't making.
Speaker 4 (13:27):
It be what I know about erotica, it's like, oh God,
I hope we don't go there.
Speaker 1 (13:33):
Now.
Speaker 2 (13:33):
A couple things that I know about business. The only
way that you decide that you need to keep people
enticed to coming back because of sex is when your
core business isn't doing what you want it to do. Okay,
people don't realize like everyone everyone knows about like OnlyFans, now, yeah,
OnlyFans didn't start out with like a bunch of like
(13:55):
erotic you know, performers that were like show. It was
supposed to be like something if you were like a
fan of whatever, and then it turned out, hey, people
just really wanted to like pay to talk to naked people.
Speaker 4 (14:06):
Like a play on cameo bas like yeah, okay.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
Basically, or like hey, here's a way that you can
like pay people that you like, really like so that
you can talk to Like, yes, it'll be like you
could have like real conversations. If you were a fan
of the Red Sox, Yeah, it'd be like, hey, like
you know, Saydan Rafaela is gonna you know, show up
and have you know, a twenty minute conversation with fans
or something like that. So when Sam Altman's like, yeah,
(14:31):
we're gonna start making a push into erotica in two months,
it tells me they don't think they don't actually have
the products they think they do.
Speaker 4 (14:41):
I interpreted a little bit differently, where what you've heard
over the course of the last few weeks is they
have committed hundreds of billions of dollars into investment through
all these deals that I can barely keep track of.
I have to keep reading about him to figure out
how many arrangements they've made. It's this big circular loop
or the spider Man meme, where like all these big
tech come me user's pointing at each other, spending a
(15:02):
ton of money building out all these data centers, but ultimately,
as a result of that huge investment, they are put
in all their chips in the middle, and this needs
to work, and it needs to work really fast. And
what I think they're doing by this move is maybe
you're right. Maybe they're concerned that at some point there's
gonna be a lot of skepticism as to how much
revenue are you generating versus how much you're spending. And
(15:24):
all this investment, I think they're just open up the
doors to anything that they can get their hands on
to try and get further and further adoption in all
areas and crevices of the world to justify how transformational
their technology is. I view it more that way. I
guess there's some desperation in that too. It's like it's
(15:45):
really him ignitting. We need to make this work, and
we need to make it work really fast. So what
I see as a big concern is they're gonna put
a lot of these guardrails down really damn quick because
they need to get everything work in hyper speed to
justify the amount of money they're spending.
Speaker 2 (16:01):
Does that maybe, I guess The other thing that makes
me really question this is it was only a couple
months ago in July when Altman was like, hey, we
quote haven't put a sex spot avatar in chat GPT
yet as a positive when comparing it to SO, I like,
(16:22):
I look at this and to me, honestly, I think
that you lose any high ground in talking about like,
oh AI is going to do all these interesting things
when now you're just like, we want to make AI
able to you know, have sex chats with the you know,
it's just kind of like, what are we actually doing here?
(16:44):
Is AI actually this transformative technology or are we just
a bunch of horn dogs that you're going to try
to make money off of? You know, like this this
is where I this, This is where I'm at right now.
So I gotta tell you, especially given the fact that
(17:06):
the stuff that it has come out in the last
month or two about how little control there is over
what chad GPT will tell you if you really push it. Man,
this doesn't feel good. And this is before you even
get to Hey, they just rolled out their second version
of SORA, which is the AI Video Generator, and boy,
(17:26):
do you believe there are gonna be some really nasty
things that happen there if you start allowing for you know,
erotic content generation, uh with you know whatever users like I,
I can't tell you how I knew we were heading
in this direction because like this is always where it goes. Yeah,
(17:46):
but man, if they're like, I wouldn't trust Sam Altman's
company to like, I wouldn't trust them to do I
wouldn't trust them to like operate a lemon aid stand
quite honestly on their own. And now you're like, hey,
users can like in December januate erotic content of their choosing.
(18:09):
Oh yeah, that's gonna end really well.
Speaker 4 (18:11):
But Chuck, they're a nonprofit.
Speaker 2 (18:15):
That's just because they can't make a profit, you know,
to be fair, that doesn't mean no profit. Usually that
just means no, we're not gonna keep it all jokes aside.
I think two things can be true.
Speaker 4 (18:25):
Where probably a lot of this stuff we're gonna reach,
you know, frothy valuations, bubble territory. But I do think
that the technology not next year, but five or ten
years from now. You can make the argument that there
are the seedings of it being transformative.
Speaker 2 (18:41):
I still am going to believe that just I want to.
But Paul, they're pivoting to porn that that's never a
good thing like that. That's never like, yes, like we
have a business model that's reliable, you know, like Apple
never had to be like, well people aren't buying iPhones.
(19:05):
Let's you know, like what, I don't even.
Speaker 4 (19:07):
Know how you would like your Google really didn't have
to go that way if you think about because that's
like a similar comparison and surge of use, right, because
that's how Google made all already, is being the front
door of the Internet everyone logging and searching and they
could kind of hold their ground to in YouTube and
other is not really incorporate.
Speaker 2 (19:22):
That these guys haven't even made it three years.
Speaker 4 (19:25):
Well yeah, since they searched onto the scene.
Speaker 2 (19:27):
Let's take a quick break and when we come back,
we've got Wall Street Watch and the Trivia Answer.
Speaker 1 (19:38):
Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio. Every day.
It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Time now for Wall Street Watch, a complete look and
what's moving markets so far today right here on the
Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 3 (19:57):
Market's in positive territory despite the bat back and forth
trade threats between the US and China, as investors are
encouraged by a new batch of strong third quarter bank earnings.
Right now, the Dow is up about a half a percent,
or two hundred and nine points, SMP five hundred is
up three quarters of a percent, or forty nine points higher,
(20:18):
Nasdaq up one percent or two hundred and twelve points,
Russell two thousand and up over one percent. Ten year
Treasure reeled down one basis point at four point zero
one one percent, and crude oil down about a half
a percent, trading at fifty eight dollars in thirty six
cents a barrel. Similar to its peers, Bank of America
had a solid third quarter, driven by stronger than expected
(20:41):
investment banking revenue. The bank said its profit climb twenty
three percent from a year ago to eight and a
half billion dollars. Bank of America shares are up five percent.
Morgan Stanley also impressed what with its third quarter results,
posting earnings that exceeded expectations by the largest margin in
nearly five years. The bank saw its profit jump forty
(21:04):
five percent from a year ago to four point six
billion dollars. Morgan Stanley shares are up six percent. Meanwhile,
PNC Financial that stock is down four percent, despite the
lender logging higher profit and revenue in the previous quarter
as it continued adding customers elsewhere. Apple announced new MacBook Pro,
(21:24):
iPad Pro, and Vision Pro models with an updated M
five chip that allows them to run faster than previous versions.
The devices are available available for pre order now in
most markets and go on sale October twenty second. Apple
shares are up nearly one percent. According to Reuter's Apollo
Global Management has offered a new bid to take Papa
(21:46):
John's private at sixty four dollars a share. The pizza
chain stock is jumping about eight percent on that news,
and after today's closing bell, United Airlines will post their
third quarter results. I'm Tucker Silva and that is Wall
Street Watch And in the previous segment we asked the
trivia question, who is Fox's first choice to host their
(22:08):
late night talk show in nineteen ninety three? That would
be Dolly Parton. Sebastian from Carver, Mass is our winner
today taking on the Financial Shane Show T shirt and
we play trivia every day here in the Financial Exchange.
See complete contest rules at Financial Exchange show dot com.
Speaker 2 (22:25):
Piece in the Wall Street Journal, the rest of the
world is following America's retreat on EV's, and I gotta
say I'm not entirely surprised. We've talked for the last
several years about Hey, even if you have positive thoughts
about EV's, I don't think that you can or should
be convinced that, you know, everyone wants to switch to
them over the next you know, seven to eight years
(22:47):
and lo and behold, that's kind of what we're seeing
playing out. This is before you even get to the
questions of, hey, how are you gonna build the power
generation and transmission capacity to actually charge all those vehicles,
which is something that we've noted for the last several
years as well.
Speaker 4 (23:01):
Yeah, you have several things working against the electric vehicle market.
All the investment that went into the space was sort
of with the prior administration, So you have political landscape changes,
the sunsetting of the federal tax credit domestically here, you
also have, like you mentioned, the infrastructure build out that
was always an area of concern, and I don't know
(23:23):
how that all works with now some more demand for
AI electricity build out, Like how you balance that with evs.
It's just multiple different things where there was clearly overinvestment
in twenty twenty one and now it's coming to roosts
that there just isn't the requisite demand to back up
that over investment. In twenty one plus, you have, like
(23:43):
I said, just not the same political landscape behind some
of the demand for these vehicles. And then you have
China too, is another piece where they're just kind of
flooding the European and Central America and South America areas
with a lot of supply sort of leading to lessening
demand there.
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Speaker 2 (25:11):
From the Boston Globe today Recession Washington Post, Washington Post.
It's the same thing. Not it has the same font
as the Globe. No, this is the Globe.
Speaker 3 (25:22):
It's the Washington Post, it says twenty twenty five Boston
Globe Media Partners. What's the headline, it says twenty twenty
five Boston Globe Media Partner. No, No, what's the headline?
Speaker 2 (25:33):
Oh, it says the Washington Post. Remember when I said that? Yeah,
I remember that ago. Okay. But here's the way my
brain works is I see something in the stack, and
I recognize the font and say, this is where it's
from chet GPT under I underlined Washington Post. How often
does the Globe pull something from the Post? Often do they?
Speaker 4 (25:53):
Oh?
Speaker 3 (25:54):
Same as the New York Times.
Speaker 2 (25:55):
Okay, coming to you, you know, live from wherever uht
warning signs to watch goodbye lipstick, Hello Hamburger Helper. So
it's all these different things that you know may or
may not point towards a coming recession. Quite honestly, if
you're not, like, if you're not someone who has like
(26:17):
an accurate way to trade macroeconomic forecast, if you're not
a CEO, I don't know that there's much that you
need to make of these Like does the average person
need to pay attention on a regular basis to how
many you know, Class eight trucks are being sold in
the US on a yearly basis? No?
Speaker 1 (26:36):
No.
Speaker 4 (26:37):
And also I feel like a lot of these predictors
that they mentioned here in this article, you're probably already
in recession when you're getting some of this stuff. You'll know,
like the purchases of Hamburger helper. I guess you know
they're saying that sales have ticked up there and thrifting
like all these things that would imply that consumers are
(26:57):
being a little bit more cost conscious. But but ultimately,
if you see these indicators, and I don't think these
indicators are clear this instance, like you're gonna know you're
in it, and it's you're already gonna kind of miss
the warning signs, Like I don't think these are the
ones that tell you, okay, we are in it right now.
These are going to be after effects when a bigger
shock occurs in the economy. It's not these small, more
(27:20):
nuanced subjects of Hamburger, helper or thrift shopping that's gonna
be the indicator to tell you what's going on.
Speaker 2 (27:26):
Yeah, the one that I always enjoyed was the men's
Underwear Index, which Alan Greenspan was the big nan there.
And the whole thing is, hey, look, men by underwear
basically like they view them as a necessity during normal
economic times, but in a downturn and are like, it's
(27:48):
got a couple holes in it, it'll be fine. And
so green Span love the underwear indicator just as an example. Now,
first of all, I don't think that there's any like
publicly available information to like weekly sales of men's underwear,
So I don't think you can find this stuff just
you know, floating out there in the wild. But you
get like some interesting things. I think this stuff's interesting
(28:09):
to think about. But I also do keep coming back
to hey, if you're always on the lookout for recession,
there's always gonna be one indicator that's telling you something
bad's coming. And what you're really looking for, not just
in recession, but like in anything in life, is not
just like one thing that's going on. It's you want
clusterings of things, and that tells you what's going on.
So if you have a friend or family member that
(28:31):
gets laid off, doesn't really tell you anything. If your brother, sister,
and uncle have all gotten laid off in the last
six months, yeah, that might tell you a little more
about what's going on, provided that the three of you
don't all work you know, the same factory or something
you know. But I'm a big fan of look for clustering.
Don't pay attention to any one particular thing with anything
(28:52):
in life. You want to look for where you have
that clustering happening, because that's when you can spot pivot
points and turns and things along those lines. So yeah,
that's that's kind of where I am. I think to
always be on the lookout for recession, you're gonna be
first of all, if you're always looking for it and
you're gonna be disappointed nine years out of ten because
(29:13):
most of the time there's not a recession.
Speaker 4 (29:15):
Oh yeah, my dad's been calling for one since twenty twelve.
Speaker 2 (29:17):
I know people that have been calling for one since
two thousand and five. They still don't believe two thousand
and eight happen. They're like, no, it's gonna be worse.
It's like, okay, well, like you know that there is
an incentive for businesses in the government to not have
you know, us, go back to the Stone Age. No,
like it's gonna happen. Well, okay, you know, if you
really believe that, that's fine. But for the rest of us,
(29:38):
the recession did happen in two thousand and eight, and
it kind of sucked. So let's take a quick break
when we return stack Roulette.
Speaker 1 (29:47):
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Speaker 3 (30:27):
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Speaker 4 (30:59):
Paul, what do you got for stack? Rolex check? I
want to talk a little bit about podcasts. This is
a piece here from the New York Times where Netflix
is jumping into podcasts with a Spotify deal. Netflix will
now show video versions of sixteen podcasts on sports, culture, entertainment,
and true crime. And this is in a deal with
(31:21):
Spotify Studios and the Ringer website, which Bill Simmons had
started and was acquired by Spotify and twenty twenty. And
the reason why I bring up this subject is some trend,
this trend that I don't seem to understand is this
shift in podcasting to video podcasting where I was always
on the impression that pivot to video, that I consume podcasts.
(31:43):
I drive around a lot for our job, to different offices,
and I'm constantly consuming podcasts. Absolutely love them. It's a
great way to kill time in the car. But I
was under the impression that everyone else was like me,
that you're doing these where I don't have the ability
to look at the video when I'm driving because I'm
driving a car and the same.
Speaker 2 (31:59):
Thing up, you can do that I could, but it
just wouldn't be the best. It's the cause of like
every backup when I'm driving home, it's like, oh, like
you rear ended someone in a straightaway, stop watching video
in the.
Speaker 4 (32:10):
Car or forget like me like just driving around like oh,
you're working out and uh, you know you have something
on to listen to while you're on the treadmill. Whatever
the case may be. But it just seems like with
this investment in the shift in general, that podcasting is
really focusing a lot more on video, And I just wonder,
who is you know, so drawn to the video consumption.
(32:33):
But I say that and my wife does listen to podcasts.
I think the video version on the treadmill, so like
she does have the physical presence there to watch. I
guess I'm becoming more and more in the minority there
with that.
Speaker 2 (32:47):
So here's the other thing that I think about this,
And look, this is the classic. You know, back in
twenty fourteen and fifteen, every news organization said, Okay, we
got a pivot to video because that's where you know
things are going, and it didn't work for them. Ultimately,
what I think this is more about is if you
(33:07):
look at the dominant form of content consumption by gen z,
it is short form real videos, right, TikTok? Facebook, I
don't even know what the like is Instagram, reach reels, yep,
what's the one on YouTube? What do they call it? Shorts?
That is how content is being consumed. Yeah, that's true.
(33:28):
Like I am basically a baby boomer at this point
in that it's like, oh, like, how cute, Chuck, You're
reading tweets like what a loser? Like? Okay, yeah, like
I get user. I'm not hip and cool anymore, but
that's still how I consume content is through letters and
words and numbers. Because I believe that's important. And by
(33:50):
the way, you still can't beat the information density of
the written word. It's just it's mind blowing how much
you can get into a small space that way. But
the way that eighteen and twenty five year olds and
thirty year olds are consuming content now is through thirty
second to ninety second video, right, And I think the
(34:11):
podcast are not saying that they want everyone to watch
their podcast.
Speaker 4 (34:14):
They just want the cutouts.
Speaker 2 (34:15):
Hey, we're making the content anyways. Great. We can take
this minute clip and throw it on a reel or
something and boom, there you.
Speaker 4 (34:21):
Go, and it looks esthetically better because they build out
a studio that makes the production value look good. Helps
with the algorithm. Yeah, I get all that. We had
a babysitter over who's in high school who just didn't
even turn on the TV the whole night, like after
the kids went to bed. It was just on to
your point, just on her phone the whole time, scrolling, scrolling,
rather than what we would have done, or like my
(34:43):
wife would have done, would be, you know, you queue
up some sort of TV show. But it was just
it's not necessary anymore. And that probably speaks to your
point that that's how everyone is consuming media now it's
thirty or sixty second clips that might be long, it's
probably like five or ten seconds. The attention spend now.
Speaker 2 (34:58):
Peace from the Wall Street Journal. Chinese criminals. It was
made more than a billion dollars from those annoying texts. Uh.
And you know this is whether you're talking about like
the highway toll payment scams.
Speaker 4 (35:09):
You know what's driving me insane? Someone from lending some
lending company keeps texting me about a personal loan.
Speaker 2 (35:16):
Why don't you pay it all? I get the voicemail.
Speaker 4 (35:19):
No, they're asking you if like to further up my
interest on personal loan and I do that. You know,
delete and report junk in your iPhone doesn't do anything.
They keep coming back every single time. I've never asked
about a personal loan ever. Yeah, I keep getting this text. Hey,
it's Amy just falling up on your personal loan. Bequs
want to chat about some more. And I was ready
to respond last night. I was so mad. It was
the fifth one that I've got. I was close, but
(35:40):
I didn't tuck her. But I was scurious.
Speaker 2 (35:43):
No, no, no, I got a longer story.
Speaker 1 (35:44):
No.
Speaker 3 (35:44):
I was just gonna say that I'm fine, because I
get like three to four of these scam calls a day,
or spam calls a day, phone calls, phone calls that
leave a voicemail. Sometimes my phone doesn't even doesn't even ring.
It just says, hey, you got a voicemail. It's you know,
Lauren from the personal Loan program whatever, you know, And
they want you to press nine and call back because
(36:05):
then they'll know that your phone number is still active.
So don't do anything. They're testing to see if your
number is still Yeah.
Speaker 2 (36:12):
I mean, look, I've been told I can't tell you
how many times that my Comcast service is about to
be shut off, and I don't even have Comcasts. But
look the way they do this is they just throw
this out to everyone and hey, if you know, you
callarge numbers, now what I do have? That's I think
a kind of funny story. And this finally came full circle.
I think in the last year. I have a buddy
(36:34):
of mine who wasn't on this exact stuff, but he
was getting calls from debt collectors on debt that was
not his kind of this whole phantom debt thing, where
basically he started like calling back and being like, who
put my name on your list, like getting like really aggressive.
Don't long story short, he was so good at this
(36:56):
the I don't know if like the DOJ ended up
getting a conviction on the guy who masterminded this whole
thing basically because he like tracked it up and then
brought all this information to the DOJ and was like
this is what you need to do in order to
go after these people. Wow. But he basically dedicated three
or four years of his life to tracking down these scammers.
(37:19):
He lost his job for me, and it ended up
it ended up working out. It turned out that like
these phantom debt companies, they would just buy these lists
of like manipulated fake numbers and everything with the hope
that they get something out of it. And it was
just this whole scam of you know, frauds on frauds
on frauds. And he basically threw a combination of just
(37:40):
being like an absolute dog about it and you know,
occasionally like being nice to people, being like, hey, I
know that you don't really want your life to be
like this, like helped me out and like tell me
where he got these and like he ended up getting
the DOJ to get a conviction because of all the
information that he ended up bringing them. When it was
(38:01):
all said and done.
Speaker 4 (38:02):
We could use more of those convictions.
Speaker 2 (38:03):
I thought that was kind of cool, but again, who
wants to dedicate four years of their life to doing
that quick break for the rest of the day. We're
back tomorrow, more financial exchange. We're gonna be live from
the showcase, super Lux and Chestnut Hill. Make sure you
tune in.
The Financial Exchange is produced by Money Matters Radio and
is hosted by employees of the Armstrong Advisory Group, a
registered investment advisor. All opinions expressed are solely those of
the hosts, do not reflect the opinions of Armstrong Advisory
or anyone else. Investments can lose money. This program does
not offer any specific financial or investment advice. Please consult
your own financial, tax, and estate planning advisors before making
(00:20):
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this program do not endorse each other or their services.
Armstrong and Money Matters Radio do not compensate each other
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Exchange with Chuck Zada and Paul Lane, your exclusive look
at business and financial news affecting your day, your city,
(00:42):
your world. Stay informed and up to date about economic
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donation today. This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck Zada
(01:06):
and Paul Lane.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
Chuck Paul Tucker with you here on the financial exchange.
We got stocks making a broad based rally today, not
really on any news. I haven't seen anything that's been notable,
but you've got a rally that's happening. Nonetheless, with the
Dow Jones Industrial Average about two hundred and seventy two
points a little more than half a percent. The S
and P five hundred index is up sixty four points
(01:34):
about one percent, and the nasdak can Posite up two
hundred and eighty seven points about one to quarter percent.
So again, all three major US indices are in the
green in a broad based rally that is taking place.
When we take a look through other markets that we
have had, there are the things that we typically are watching.
(01:55):
We got the ten year US Treasury down three tenths
of a basis point to four point one to nine percent,
kind of been stuck in a range over the last
week or so, no major movement, and quite honestly, probably
has something to do with the fact we haven't really
been getting much economic data.
Speaker 3 (02:11):
You know.
Speaker 2 (02:11):
It's if you're not getting that data, what are you
going to trade bonds on? If you're not getting inflation
or growth data. There's just not much out there that
we're seeing. Gold continuing its remarkable run up another forty
six dollars and forty cents, downs to forty two oh
nine and forty cents, its first time ever over for
forty two hundred dollars per ounce. We've got oil West
(02:35):
Text Intermediate up nine cents a barrel to fifty eight
seventy nine right now, but still below sixty. You're seeing this,
by the way, trickling into gas prices, which are down
another nine tenths of ascent overnight to three h six
and seven tenths of ascent. So we've now conclusively kind
of broken out of that three ten to three twenty
(02:56):
range that we were in, and quite honestly, with oil
prices where they are, pretty good chance, we're heading for
somewhere in the high twos per gallon on a national
average over the next week or so, so I think
that we're probably gonna break some lower ground there, which
is obviously good news for those of us who don't
(03:17):
live in oil country. If you happen to be listening
from you know, Houston, Texas, or well really most of Texas.
Quite honestly, Colorado, Western Pennsylvania. You might be sitting there saying, yeah,
it's kind of not great for us from you know,
a business perspective, since energy companies make up a lot
of those local economies. But in the aggregate, it's probably
(03:38):
net neutral. When we look at oil prices at this point,
with how much oil the US produces at this point
and exports, higher oil prices aren't the drag they used
to be, and lower oil prices aren't the boon they
used to be. It's kind of, hey, it helps some
parts of the country, hurts others, and overall probably nets
out the somewhere around neutral. Even though personally, with me
(04:00):
not being in the oil industry, I like the lower
oil prices, but I can understand why those of you
you know that might be employed in that industry are saying,
and it's not really great for us. Right now, let's
talk a little bit about artificial intelligence. We don't try
to talk about it for fifteen minutes a day on
the show. We just seem to because it's one of
the major topics driving the economy and markets right now.
(04:24):
And Ernie Tedesky, who we have had on the show
a couple times, I think and also used to be,
you know, previously on the Council of Economic Advisors. So
Ernie's you know, way smarter than all of us. And
he currently works at the Yale Budget Lab and they
did an analysis on artificial intelligence and its impact on
(04:45):
the US economy, and basically what they've found is, yeah,
there's definitely some investment that's happening here, and there's definitely
more use of AI that's happening right now, but overall
the difference is to the US GDP are very much
on the margins and not some huge wave that is
(05:06):
driving the overall economy. Is the point that he'll make,
even though it is driving markets, that is different from
driving the economy.
Speaker 4 (05:14):
Yeah, this one is tough because he framed his argument
based on GDP growth, which I get it, that's fair.
That's where you try to assess how the economy is
growing and what it's generating in terms of products and services.
And the tricky thing with the equation is so much
of the technology we end up importing its end products.
So in Vidia, for example, designs a chip that's ultimately
(05:36):
manufactured in Taiwan that's probably imported back here to service
data centers, so it kind of comes up in the
ledger as an import rather than though they created some
of the design value domestically. That's what's kind of fudging
the numbers a little bit. So that's that's one side
of the equation. The other is I don't think we're
seeing the full scale on the investment part of GDP.
(05:59):
So GDP to break it down two thirds of its
consumer spending, maybe a little bit more. Then the other
components are investment and and that can take all shapes
and forms government spending and the net between imports and
exports and so on the investment side. With all this
data center commitment, I think what we're at four hundred
billion for twenty twenty six and projected commitment for capital,
(06:21):
I feel like we're not perhaps seeing some of that
trickle through to some of this data that he's looking at.
Is that a fair rebuttal to make?
Speaker 2 (06:29):
Yeah, I think in some respects. I mean, ultimately, look,
when we talk about the places where AI can be
influencing the economy right now, the data center construction and
things like that is something that we've obviously covered. The
place where I think we still don't have anything conclusively
showing that it's causing an impact is an employment yeah,
where yes, you get these anecdotes that have popped up
(06:52):
predominantly in the tech industry, but even in some other
places you're starting to see him now, which does make
me think that, yeah, it's it's likely over the next
three to five years that you start to see AI
having a negative impact unemployment as more companies figure out
how to use it to replace in particular kind of
entry level job functions and things along those lines. So
(07:16):
I think that you could see that becoming you know,
more of a thing. And I guess where where I
get to is the same place that I've been, which is, yeah,
I know that there are you know, eight hundred million
people with chat, GPT you know user names now or
you know whatever you like, weekly users, weekly users, So
I know there's you know, almost a billion people world
(07:38):
wide that are using it. I know that you're seeing
more and more people using AI on a daily basis,
but ultimately it's not clear to me that it's generating
any kind of meaningful revenue at the moment. I mean,
open AI for all of the hype and everything, thirteen
Pace do like thirteen billion dollars in revenue on an
annual basis. So you kind of look at this and
you say, yeah, I get to the same place I've
(08:00):
been for a while. Now we're all gonna be using
AI way more. Five years from now, there's gonna be
a lot more spending on AI as a result of that.
It's unclear to me exactly who ends up being, you know,
the overall beneficiaries. But right now, both the producers of
the equipment, the producers of the technology, and the users
(08:21):
of the technology are being priced in as winners, and the.
Speaker 4 (08:25):
Energy providers to again some PROTHI neiss.
Speaker 2 (08:28):
And we're not all gonna be winners. No, like someone
always loses with new technologies. When when the internal combustion
engine was invented, the horse and buggy dudes were like,
oh crap, we're done. Like we're done.
Speaker 4 (08:41):
We better learn this.
Speaker 2 (08:42):
When the telephone was invented, the people that you know
delivered telegrams, you know, they were you know, out of business.
When when the stone tablet makers saw the printing press,
they said, oh no, what are we gonna do. We're
not No one's gonna want us carve in anything anymore.
They started making statues and stuff. Instead, they turned into artists.
(09:04):
It's not actually how it happened, but you know, one
can one can discuss. But this also then gets us to, hey,
is AI actually, like, are our companies and people actually
is interested at spending money on AI as the AI
(09:25):
companies want you to believe they are. And I want
to take a quick break, and then I want to
answer that question next, because all you hear from open
AI and Microsoft and this and that is oh like
these are you know, life changing, you know, company changing
technologies and everyone's gonna need them, and this and that,
(09:46):
And I've got my latest piece of evidence that maybe
that's not the case. Quick break, we'll discuss that. And
we've also got trivia next.
Speaker 1 (09:54):
Find daily interviews in full shows of The Financial Exchange
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(10:15):
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This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 3 (10:36):
All right time.
Speaker 2 (10:37):
Make sure you're in the Financial Exchange and on this day.
Speaker 3 (10:40):
Back in nineteen ninety three, Fox aired the final episode of.
Speaker 2 (10:44):
The Chevy Chase Show.
Speaker 3 (10:46):
The Chevy Chase Show was a disaster for the network,
lasting only twenty nine episodes before cancelation. Chase was not
Fox's first choice to host the late night talk show.
The network's first choice was a legendary female country musician.
So our tribute question today, who is Fox's first choice
(11:06):
to host their late night talk show back in nineteen
ninety three? Once again, who is Fox's first choice to
host their late night talk show in nineteen ninety three?
Speaker 2 (11:17):
Uh?
Speaker 3 (11:18):
Be the third person today to text us at six
one seven three six two thirteen eighty five with correct answer,
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(11:38):
Exchange Show dot com.
Speaker 2 (11:40):
So every AI company out there is telling you about
the amazing things that you can do with AI. It's
gonna revolutionize coding. Man. Oh no, it's it's not just
gonna revolutionize coding. It's gonna you're gonna be able to
fire half your workforce and replace them with computers. Oh
(12:02):
like okay, Like you know, and CEOs are leaning in
like yes, tell me more, like tell me and so
like you're kind of going down this path. And you
see this, you know all these news stories about it,
and it's like, AI is gonna do things we could
never dream of. AI is gonna do you know, these
amazing things. It's gonna make the world change. It's gonna
be totally different. And then Sam Altman comes out with
(12:25):
an ex post yesterday at twelve oh two pm. Hey,
we're gonna make some AI porn about time?
Speaker 1 (12:34):
What could go wrong?
Speaker 2 (12:35):
Chuck quote We made chat GPT pretty restrictive to make
sure we were being careful with mental health issues. Unquote.
Jerry's still out on that even think that you're sure
those facts are in evidence, Sam, But let's continue. We
realized this made it less useful enjoyable to many users
who had no mental health problems, but given the seriousness
(12:56):
of the issue, we wanted to get this right. I'm
sure you've gotten it right, Samuel. Now that we've been
able to mitigate the serious mental health issues and have
new tools, okay, we're gonna be able to safely relax
the restrictions in most cases in December, as we roll
out age gating more fully, and as part of our
treat adult users like adults principle, we will allow even
(13:16):
more like erotica for verified adults. So, couple things that
I know about business. When your core business isn't making.
Speaker 4 (13:27):
It be what I know about erotica, it's like, oh God,
I hope we don't go there.
Speaker 1 (13:33):
Now.
Speaker 2 (13:33):
A couple things that I know about business. The only
way that you decide that you need to keep people
enticed to coming back because of sex is when your
core business isn't doing what you want it to do. Okay,
people don't realize like everyone everyone knows about like OnlyFans, now, yeah,
OnlyFans didn't start out with like a bunch of like
(13:55):
erotic you know, performers that were like show. It was
supposed to be like something if you were like a
fan of whatever, and then it turned out, hey, people
just really wanted to like pay to talk to naked people.
Speaker 4 (14:06):
Like a play on cameo bas like yeah, okay.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
Basically, or like hey, here's a way that you can
like pay people that you like, really like so that
you can talk to Like, yes, it'll be like you
could have like real conversations. If you were a fan
of the Red Sox, Yeah, it'd be like, hey, like
you know, Saydan Rafaela is gonna you know, show up
and have you know, a twenty minute conversation with fans
or something like that. So when Sam Altman's like, yeah,
(14:31):
we're gonna start making a push into erotica in two months,
it tells me they don't think they don't actually have
the products they think they do.
Speaker 4 (14:41):
I interpreted a little bit differently, where what you've heard
over the course of the last few weeks is they
have committed hundreds of billions of dollars into investment through
all these deals that I can barely keep track of.
I have to keep reading about him to figure out
how many arrangements they've made. It's this big circular loop
or the spider Man meme, where like all these big
tech come me user's pointing at each other, spending a
(15:02):
ton of money building out all these data centers, but ultimately,
as a result of that huge investment, they are put
in all their chips in the middle, and this needs
to work, and it needs to work really fast. And
what I think they're doing by this move is maybe
you're right. Maybe they're concerned that at some point there's
gonna be a lot of skepticism as to how much
revenue are you generating versus how much you're spending. And
(15:24):
all this investment, I think they're just open up the
doors to anything that they can get their hands on
to try and get further and further adoption in all
areas and crevices of the world to justify how transformational
their technology is. I view it more that way. I
guess there's some desperation in that too. It's like it's
(15:45):
really him ignitting. We need to make this work, and
we need to make it work really fast. So what
I see as a big concern is they're gonna put
a lot of these guardrails down really damn quick because
they need to get everything work in hyper speed to
justify the amount of money they're spending.
Speaker 2 (16:01):
Does that maybe, I guess The other thing that makes
me really question this is it was only a couple
months ago in July when Altman was like, hey, we
quote haven't put a sex spot avatar in chat GPT
yet as a positive when comparing it to SO, I like,
(16:22):
I look at this and to me, honestly, I think
that you lose any high ground in talking about like,
oh AI is going to do all these interesting things
when now you're just like, we want to make AI
able to you know, have sex chats with the you know,
it's just kind of like, what are we actually doing here?
(16:44):
Is AI actually this transformative technology or are we just
a bunch of horn dogs that you're going to try
to make money off of? You know, like this this
is where I this, This is where I'm at right now.
So I gotta tell you, especially given the fact that
(17:06):
the stuff that it has come out in the last
month or two about how little control there is over
what chad GPT will tell you if you really push it. Man,
this doesn't feel good. And this is before you even
get to Hey, they just rolled out their second version
of SORA, which is the AI Video Generator, and boy,
(17:26):
do you believe there are gonna be some really nasty
things that happen there if you start allowing for you know,
erotic content generation, uh with you know whatever users like I,
I can't tell you how I knew we were heading
in this direction because like this is always where it goes. Yeah,
(17:46):
but man, if they're like, I wouldn't trust Sam Altman's
company to like, I wouldn't trust them to do I
wouldn't trust them to like operate a lemon aid stand
quite honestly on their own. And now you're like, hey,
users can like in December januate erotic content of their choosing.
(18:09):
Oh yeah, that's gonna end really well.
Speaker 4 (18:11):
But Chuck, they're a nonprofit.
Speaker 2 (18:15):
That's just because they can't make a profit, you know,
to be fair, that doesn't mean no profit. Usually that
just means no, we're not gonna keep it all jokes aside.
I think two things can be true.
Speaker 4 (18:25):
Where probably a lot of this stuff we're gonna reach,
you know, frothy valuations, bubble territory. But I do think
that the technology not next year, but five or ten
years from now. You can make the argument that there
are the seedings of it being transformative.
Speaker 2 (18:41):
I still am going to believe that just I want to.
But Paul, they're pivoting to porn that that's never a
good thing like that. That's never like, yes, like we
have a business model that's reliable, you know, like Apple
never had to be like, well people aren't buying iPhones.
(19:05):
Let's you know, like what, I don't even.
Speaker 4 (19:07):
Know how you would like your Google really didn't have
to go that way if you think about because that's
like a similar comparison and surge of use, right, because
that's how Google made all already, is being the front
door of the Internet everyone logging and searching and they
could kind of hold their ground to in YouTube and
other is not really incorporate.
Speaker 2 (19:22):
That these guys haven't even made it three years.
Speaker 4 (19:25):
Well yeah, since they searched onto the scene.
Speaker 2 (19:27):
Let's take a quick break and when we come back,
we've got Wall Street Watch and the Trivia Answer.
Speaker 1 (19:38):
Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio. Every day.
It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Time now for Wall Street Watch, a complete look and
what's moving markets so far today right here on the
Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 3 (19:57):
Market's in positive territory despite the bat back and forth
trade threats between the US and China, as investors are
encouraged by a new batch of strong third quarter bank earnings.
Right now, the Dow is up about a half a percent,
or two hundred and nine points, SMP five hundred is
up three quarters of a percent, or forty nine points higher,
(20:18):
Nasdaq up one percent or two hundred and twelve points,
Russell two thousand and up over one percent. Ten year
Treasure reeled down one basis point at four point zero
one one percent, and crude oil down about a half
a percent, trading at fifty eight dollars in thirty six
cents a barrel. Similar to its peers, Bank of America
had a solid third quarter, driven by stronger than expected
(20:41):
investment banking revenue. The bank said its profit climb twenty
three percent from a year ago to eight and a
half billion dollars. Bank of America shares are up five percent.
Morgan Stanley also impressed what with its third quarter results,
posting earnings that exceeded expectations by the largest margin in
nearly five years. The bank saw its profit jump forty
(21:04):
five percent from a year ago to four point six
billion dollars. Morgan Stanley shares are up six percent. Meanwhile,
PNC Financial that stock is down four percent, despite the
lender logging higher profit and revenue in the previous quarter
as it continued adding customers elsewhere. Apple announced new MacBook Pro,
(21:24):
iPad Pro, and Vision Pro models with an updated M
five chip that allows them to run faster than previous versions.
The devices are available available for pre order now in
most markets and go on sale October twenty second. Apple
shares are up nearly one percent. According to Reuter's Apollo
Global Management has offered a new bid to take Papa
(21:46):
John's private at sixty four dollars a share. The pizza
chain stock is jumping about eight percent on that news,
and after today's closing bell, United Airlines will post their
third quarter results. I'm Tucker Silva and that is Wall
Street Watch And in the previous segment we asked the
trivia question, who is Fox's first choice to host their
(22:08):
late night talk show in nineteen ninety three? That would
be Dolly Parton. Sebastian from Carver, Mass is our winner
today taking on the Financial Shane Show T shirt and
we play trivia every day here in the Financial Exchange.
See complete contest rules at Financial Exchange show dot com.
Speaker 2 (22:25):
Piece in the Wall Street Journal, the rest of the
world is following America's retreat on EV's, and I gotta
say I'm not entirely surprised. We've talked for the last
several years about Hey, even if you have positive thoughts
about EV's, I don't think that you can or should
be convinced that, you know, everyone wants to switch to
them over the next you know, seven to eight years
(22:47):
and lo and behold, that's kind of what we're seeing
playing out. This is before you even get to the
questions of, hey, how are you gonna build the power
generation and transmission capacity to actually charge all those vehicles,
which is something that we've noted for the last several
years as well.
Speaker 4 (23:01):
Yeah, you have several things working against the electric vehicle market.
All the investment that went into the space was sort
of with the prior administration, So you have political landscape changes,
the sunsetting of the federal tax credit domestically here, you
also have, like you mentioned, the infrastructure build out that
was always an area of concern, and I don't know
(23:23):
how that all works with now some more demand for
AI electricity build out, Like how you balance that with evs.
It's just multiple different things where there was clearly overinvestment
in twenty twenty one and now it's coming to roosts
that there just isn't the requisite demand to back up
that over investment. In twenty one plus, you have, like
(23:43):
I said, just not the same political landscape behind some
of the demand for these vehicles. And then you have
China too, is another piece where they're just kind of
flooding the European and Central America and South America areas
with a lot of supply sort of leading to lessening
demand there.
Speaker 3 (24:04):
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(25:09):
visit USVII dot com.
Speaker 2 (25:11):
From the Boston Globe today Recession Washington Post, Washington Post.
It's the same thing. Not it has the same font
as the Globe. No, this is the Globe.
Speaker 3 (25:22):
It's the Washington Post, it says twenty twenty five Boston
Globe Media Partners. What's the headline, it says twenty twenty
five Boston Globe Media Partner. No, No, what's the headline?
Speaker 2 (25:33):
Oh, it says the Washington Post. Remember when I said that? Yeah,
I remember that ago. Okay. But here's the way my
brain works is I see something in the stack, and
I recognize the font and say, this is where it's
from chet GPT under I underlined Washington Post. How often
does the Globe pull something from the Post? Often do they?
Speaker 4 (25:53):
Oh?
Speaker 3 (25:54):
Same as the New York Times.
Speaker 2 (25:55):
Okay, coming to you, you know, live from wherever uht
warning signs to watch goodbye lipstick, Hello Hamburger Helper. So
it's all these different things that you know may or
may not point towards a coming recession. Quite honestly, if
you're not, like, if you're not someone who has like
(26:17):
an accurate way to trade macroeconomic forecast, if you're not
a CEO, I don't know that there's much that you
need to make of these Like does the average person
need to pay attention on a regular basis to how
many you know, Class eight trucks are being sold in
the US on a yearly basis? No?
Speaker 1 (26:36):
No.
Speaker 4 (26:37):
And also I feel like a lot of these predictors
that they mentioned here in this article, you're probably already
in recession when you're getting some of this stuff. You'll know,
like the purchases of Hamburger helper. I guess you know
they're saying that sales have ticked up there and thrifting
like all these things that would imply that consumers are
(26:57):
being a little bit more cost conscious. But but ultimately,
if you see these indicators, and I don't think these
indicators are clear this instance, like you're gonna know you're
in it, and it's you're already gonna kind of miss
the warning signs, Like I don't think these are the
ones that tell you, okay, we are in it right now.
These are going to be after effects when a bigger
shock occurs in the economy. It's not these small, more
(27:20):
nuanced subjects of Hamburger, helper or thrift shopping that's gonna
be the indicator to tell you what's going on.
Speaker 2 (27:26):
Yeah, the one that I always enjoyed was the men's
Underwear Index, which Alan Greenspan was the big nan there.
And the whole thing is, hey, look, men by underwear
basically like they view them as a necessity during normal
economic times, but in a downturn and are like, it's
(27:48):
got a couple holes in it, it'll be fine. And
so green Span love the underwear indicator just as an example. Now,
first of all, I don't think that there's any like
publicly available information to like weekly sales of men's underwear,
So I don't think you can find this stuff just
you know, floating out there in the wild. But you
get like some interesting things. I think this stuff's interesting
(28:09):
to think about. But I also do keep coming back
to hey, if you're always on the lookout for recession,
there's always gonna be one indicator that's telling you something
bad's coming. And what you're really looking for, not just
in recession, but like in anything in life, is not
just like one thing that's going on. It's you want
clusterings of things, and that tells you what's going on.
So if you have a friend or family member that
(28:31):
gets laid off, doesn't really tell you anything. If your brother, sister,
and uncle have all gotten laid off in the last
six months, yeah, that might tell you a little more
about what's going on, provided that the three of you
don't all work you know, the same factory or something
you know. But I'm a big fan of look for clustering.
Don't pay attention to any one particular thing with anything
(28:52):
in life. You want to look for where you have
that clustering happening, because that's when you can spot pivot
points and turns and things along those lines. So yeah,
that's that's kind of where I am. I think to
always be on the lookout for recession, you're gonna be
first of all, if you're always looking for it and
you're gonna be disappointed nine years out of ten because
(29:13):
most of the time there's not a recession.
Speaker 4 (29:15):
Oh yeah, my dad's been calling for one since twenty twelve.
Speaker 2 (29:17):
I know people that have been calling for one since
two thousand and five. They still don't believe two thousand
and eight happen. They're like, no, it's gonna be worse.
It's like, okay, well, like you know that there is
an incentive for businesses in the government to not have
you know, us, go back to the Stone Age. No,
like it's gonna happen. Well, okay, you know, if you
really believe that, that's fine. But for the rest of us,
(29:38):
the recession did happen in two thousand and eight, and
it kind of sucked. So let's take a quick break
when we return stack Roulette.
Speaker 1 (29:47):
Here the Financial Exchange every day from eleven to noon,
Non serious XM's Business Radio Channel one thirty two. Keep
it here for the latest business and financial news and
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(30:08):
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the Financial Exchange Radio network.
Speaker 3 (30:27):
This year's DAV five k is sold out, but you
can still help our great American heroes. The race is Saturday,
November eighth at Castle Island and you can visit DAV
five k dot Boston to make a donation of any amount.
Speaker 2 (30:41):
To support our troops.
Speaker 3 (30:43):
Your gifts help fund free rides to medical appointments for veterans,
and the nation's first dav led housing initiative providing homes
for single veterans and veteran families. Go to DAV five
k dot Boston and make your donation today.
Speaker 4 (30:59):
Paul, what do you got for stack? Rolex check? I
want to talk a little bit about podcasts. This is
a piece here from the New York Times where Netflix
is jumping into podcasts with a Spotify deal. Netflix will
now show video versions of sixteen podcasts on sports, culture, entertainment,
and true crime. And this is in a deal with
(31:21):
Spotify Studios and the Ringer website, which Bill Simmons had
started and was acquired by Spotify and twenty twenty. And
the reason why I bring up this subject is some trend,
this trend that I don't seem to understand is this
shift in podcasting to video podcasting where I was always
on the impression that pivot to video, that I consume podcasts.
(31:43):
I drive around a lot for our job, to different offices,
and I'm constantly consuming podcasts. Absolutely love them. It's a
great way to kill time in the car. But I
was under the impression that everyone else was like me,
that you're doing these where I don't have the ability
to look at the video when I'm driving because I'm
driving a car and the same.
Speaker 2 (31:59):
Thing up, you can do that I could, but it
just wouldn't be the best. It's the cause of like
every backup when I'm driving home, it's like, oh, like
you rear ended someone in a straightaway, stop watching video
in the.
Speaker 4 (32:10):
Car or forget like me like just driving around like oh,
you're working out and uh, you know you have something
on to listen to while you're on the treadmill. Whatever
the case may be. But it just seems like with
this investment in the shift in general, that podcasting is
really focusing a lot more on video, And I just wonder,
who is you know, so drawn to the video consumption.
(32:33):
But I say that and my wife does listen to podcasts.
I think the video version on the treadmill, so like
she does have the physical presence there to watch. I
guess I'm becoming more and more in the minority there
with that.
Speaker 2 (32:47):
So here's the other thing that I think about this,
And look, this is the classic. You know, back in
twenty fourteen and fifteen, every news organization said, Okay, we
got a pivot to video because that's where you know
things are going, and it didn't work for them. Ultimately,
what I think this is more about is if you
(33:07):
look at the dominant form of content consumption by gen z,
it is short form real videos, right, TikTok? Facebook, I
don't even know what the like is Instagram, reach reels, yep,
what's the one on YouTube? What do they call it? Shorts?
That is how content is being consumed. Yeah, that's true.
(33:28):
Like I am basically a baby boomer at this point
in that it's like, oh, like, how cute, Chuck, You're
reading tweets like what a loser? Like? Okay, yeah, like
I get user. I'm not hip and cool anymore, but
that's still how I consume content is through letters and
words and numbers. Because I believe that's important. And by
(33:50):
the way, you still can't beat the information density of
the written word. It's just it's mind blowing how much
you can get into a small space that way. But
the way that eighteen and twenty five year olds and
thirty year olds are consuming content now is through thirty
second to ninety second video, right, And I think the
(34:11):
podcast are not saying that they want everyone to watch
their podcast.
Speaker 4 (34:14):
They just want the cutouts.
Speaker 2 (34:15):
Hey, we're making the content anyways. Great. We can take
this minute clip and throw it on a reel or
something and boom, there you.
Speaker 4 (34:21):
Go, and it looks esthetically better because they build out
a studio that makes the production value look good. Helps
with the algorithm. Yeah, I get all that. We had
a babysitter over who's in high school who just didn't
even turn on the TV the whole night, like after
the kids went to bed. It was just on to
your point, just on her phone the whole time, scrolling, scrolling,
rather than what we would have done, or like my
(34:43):
wife would have done, would be, you know, you queue
up some sort of TV show. But it was just
it's not necessary anymore. And that probably speaks to your
point that that's how everyone is consuming media now it's
thirty or sixty second clips that might be long, it's
probably like five or ten seconds. The attention spend now.
Speaker 2 (34:58):
Peace from the Wall Street Journal. Chinese criminals. It was
made more than a billion dollars from those annoying texts. Uh.
And you know this is whether you're talking about like
the highway toll payment scams.
Speaker 4 (35:09):
You know what's driving me insane? Someone from lending some
lending company keeps texting me about a personal loan.
Speaker 2 (35:16):
Why don't you pay it all? I get the voicemail.
Speaker 4 (35:19):
No, they're asking you if like to further up my
interest on personal loan and I do that. You know,
delete and report junk in your iPhone doesn't do anything.
They keep coming back every single time. I've never asked
about a personal loan ever. Yeah, I keep getting this text. Hey,
it's Amy just falling up on your personal loan. Bequs
want to chat about some more. And I was ready
to respond last night. I was so mad. It was
the fifth one that I've got. I was close, but
(35:40):
I didn't tuck her. But I was scurious.
Speaker 2 (35:43):
No, no, no, I got a longer story.
Speaker 1 (35:44):
No.
Speaker 3 (35:44):
I was just gonna say that I'm fine, because I
get like three to four of these scam calls a day,
or spam calls a day, phone calls, phone calls that
leave a voicemail. Sometimes my phone doesn't even doesn't even ring.
It just says, hey, you got a voicemail. It's you know,
Lauren from the personal Loan program whatever, you know, And
they want you to press nine and call back because
(36:05):
then they'll know that your phone number is still active.
So don't do anything. They're testing to see if your
number is still Yeah.
Speaker 2 (36:12):
I mean, look, I've been told I can't tell you
how many times that my Comcast service is about to
be shut off, and I don't even have Comcasts. But
look the way they do this is they just throw
this out to everyone and hey, if you know, you
callarge numbers, now what I do have? That's I think
a kind of funny story. And this finally came full circle.
I think in the last year. I have a buddy
(36:34):
of mine who wasn't on this exact stuff, but he
was getting calls from debt collectors on debt that was
not his kind of this whole phantom debt thing, where
basically he started like calling back and being like, who
put my name on your list, like getting like really aggressive.
Don't long story short, he was so good at this
(36:56):
the I don't know if like the DOJ ended up
getting a conviction on the guy who masterminded this whole
thing basically because he like tracked it up and then
brought all this information to the DOJ and was like
this is what you need to do in order to
go after these people. Wow. But he basically dedicated three
or four years of his life to tracking down these scammers.
(37:19):
He lost his job for me, and it ended up
it ended up working out. It turned out that like
these phantom debt companies, they would just buy these lists
of like manipulated fake numbers and everything with the hope
that they get something out of it. And it was
just this whole scam of you know, frauds on frauds
on frauds. And he basically threw a combination of just
(37:40):
being like an absolute dog about it and you know,
occasionally like being nice to people, being like, hey, I
know that you don't really want your life to be
like this, like helped me out and like tell me
where he got these and like he ended up getting
the DOJ to get a conviction because of all the
information that he ended up bringing them. When it was
(38:01):
all said and done.
Speaker 4 (38:02):
We could use more of those convictions.
Speaker 2 (38:03):
I thought that was kind of cool, but again, who
wants to dedicate four years of their life to doing
that quick break for the rest of the day. We're
back tomorrow, more financial exchange. We're gonna be live from
the showcase, super Lux and Chestnut Hill. Make sure you
tune in.
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