December 11, 2025 • 39 mins
Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong discuss the important questions for the Fed heading into the final months of Jerome Powell's tenure. The Fed will help drive a 10% gain for stocks in 2026, says one of Wall Street’s most accurate forecasters, Tom Lee. Is the affordability crisis overblown? The rising prices of beef have Chuck worried. Are movie theaters soon to be a relic?
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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(01:06):
and Mike Armstraw.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
Chuck Mike Tucker with you here and kicking things off.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
We've got mixed markets today.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, or the Dow as it's
commonly referred to, up four hundred and forty nine points
almost one percent, to a new all time high of
forty eight five oh six point seventy five. We got
an outside shot another three percent. You're at fifty thousand,
mic ooh, might get that before the end of the year.
That could be fun. Yeah, bout fifty thousand. It's been
(01:37):
a while since we had a nice big round number there.
It has s and P five hundred down twenty one points,
about a third of a percent at sixty eight sixty five,
and the NASDAK composite down to twenty seven about one
percent at twenty three four to twenty six. Uh. We've
got the ten year US Treasury down four point six
basis points to four point one one eight percent. Dollar
(01:58):
Index falling in sympathy down point five nine percent to
ninety eight point one eight five.
Speaker 3 (02:03):
Gold also up.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
In sympathy there, up sixty dollars announced to forty two
eighty four and seventy cents, and we got crude oil
down a dollar five a barrel to fifty seven forty one,
triple a national average. Four gas price is flat relative
to yesterday, still a two ninety four, so we remain
about two percent below that three dollars per gallon mark.
(02:27):
UH yesterday, Federal Reserve met cut interest rates by a
quarter percent. Talked about a bunch of stuff. The market
rally today it's given some of that back. So I
think the market's you know, kind of a combination of
sorting that out plus some Oracle earnings which on the
surface were fine ish but under the hood show that
they have major problems with cash flow that need to
be remedied by either more borrowing or more revenue. And
(02:50):
the market would prefer more revenue, but thus far the
revenue is not there.
Speaker 4 (02:54):
But the borrowing is.
Speaker 3 (02:55):
The borrowing is, and so good luck.
Speaker 4 (02:58):
One of the data point eight thirty eight.
Speaker 5 (03:00):
This morning we saw the release of the weekly jobless claims,
biggest jump in four and a half years, to two
hundred and thirty six thousand in the week ending December sixth.
That having been said most out there dismissing this as
likely seasonal noise, it is very difficult for this group
to try and adjust everything during the holiday season on
(03:21):
a week to week basis, where a lot of people
are taking and then leaving temporary jobs. I think ups
delivery drivers runners.
Speaker 2 (03:28):
Thanksgiving was also a week later than last year, and
so this is so basically, we had an undercount last week,
we've got an overcount this week. When he averaged it out,
it's basically okay, we're still around two hundred and twenty
thousand claims, which is where we were before. Now you
have seen on the continuing claims, which run a week
behind in the reporting, so we're only getting the reporting
(03:49):
for the November twenty ninth week. On continuing claims, they're
seeing the same thing. So they came in with a
drop of one hundred thousand this week. They will likely
show an overcount next week of that same hundred thousand.
I don't really put much stock into any of this.
I don't think anything's changed dramatically in the labor market
for the better or the worse in the last two weeks.
Speaker 5 (04:08):
No, but if we get you know, three four weeks
of forty four thousand increases in weekly jobs claims, we'll
let you know and you should be scared about that.
Speaker 2 (04:15):
Yeah, if we start seeing you know, jobless claims at
three hundred thousand for several weeks in a row, yep, Okay,
we got a problem here.
Speaker 3 (04:21):
Yep, thus far we don't. We're fine.
Speaker 2 (04:25):
Let's see barons with the piece. This question looms large
over the twenty twenty six stock market.
Speaker 3 (04:31):
Will McDonald's bring back the McRib.
Speaker 4 (04:33):
And will they advertise it using artificial intelligence?
Speaker 3 (04:37):
What's the actual question looming over the market?
Speaker 5 (04:39):
Mind changes at the FED and will they be able
to successfully cut rates and stimulate the economy the way
that the President wants to and what will actually happen if.
Speaker 4 (04:48):
They do so.
Speaker 5 (04:51):
J Pali just presided over his fourth to last yeah,
one of his last four meetings as chair of the
Federal Reserve.
Speaker 4 (05:00):
Kevin Hassett yea.
Speaker 5 (05:01):
He's got three more next year, right, is very likely
to be taking his place as far as we know,
and that the President has pushed pretty hard for lower
interest rates. I think the question that we got after
today's meeting is will anyone Kevin has to included, be
able to bring those Federal Reserve members along for that ride,
(05:21):
Because even at this meeting, it seemed like Jay had
to do some degree of cajoling to get them across
that finish line.
Speaker 2 (05:28):
Yeah, and if you look at the projections for next
year right now and again, these are you know, early,
and they're not always right. Remember a lot of times
these projections are wrong. Going into twenty twenty two, market
was projecting the Federal was gonna hike interest rates three
to four times. They ended up hiking them the equivalent
of I think sixteen hikes maybe it was seventeen over
(05:49):
the course of the year. So, like you, these things
are not accurate. Like the market is not always right,
it's just pricing in you know what people think today.
So I think going forward next year, the battle that
is out there for the economy, which then is going
to determine what the Fed is able to do, is Hey,
(06:13):
on the weakening side of things, you've got housing in
the labor market. On the improving side of things, potentially
consumer spending with some more tax tax deductions and credits
for the next filing season, as well as some business
deductions that kick in. So does the fiscal side override
the weakness that we're seeing in those parts? And then
also does AI continue to see this exponential increase in spend,
(06:37):
or do we start to see some pullback there because
the revenue and profit isn't there.
Speaker 5 (06:42):
I was gonna say, Jack, I don't mean to make
everything in our lives about this AI narrative, but it
has to be. The whole ballgame, at least for the
US stock market right now, is how quickly can companies
monetize artificial intelligence. It's been three years, there's been little
to no monitization. And how willing are investors to play that?
Speaker 4 (07:05):
Play that.
Speaker 5 (07:07):
Game out for another twelve, eighteen, twenty four months, because
at some point, as we're seeing this morning with Oracle,
investors just say what's.
Speaker 4 (07:18):
The path to profitability here?
Speaker 3 (07:20):
Yes?
Speaker 5 (07:20):
So that's kind of the whole ballgame to me. I
know it does not affect every person's job. I know
it doesn't affect inflation. I don't know it doesn't directly
affect any of these things. But if you don't get that,
then you eventually get a stock market that starts to
question all of this. And guess what, if you're buying
the S and P five hundred today, you're making a
pretty darn big bet on artificial intelligence, like it or not,
(07:43):
you are.
Speaker 2 (07:43):
It's at some point investors get all rod Tidwell on
you and say show me the money. And that's what
they're doing to Oracle today. And Oracle has a shorter
clock than these other companies.
Speaker 5 (07:57):
Why is that they just don't have enough cash. Their
financials are not as good. Yeah, yeah, the Google obviously
there's nothing else really coming their way. But you know what, honestly,
open Ai doesn't have a much longer runway than an
Oracle does that we don't know because they're a privately
held company. But at some point who else is going
to keep giving you all this money?
Speaker 2 (08:16):
But open Ai? The difference is twofold number one. They're
like they are private yep. So that's one piece. But
you also can just with with open Ai if you
want to. You can just let your imagination run wild,
like you can be like, wow, this company can change everything.
(08:38):
With Oracle to a certain extent, you're kind of like, Okay,
they're building data centers to power open Ai, and that's
what they're doing.
Speaker 5 (08:47):
Yeah, that pick and shovel argument, the comparison of the
gold rush only goes so far.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
You know, with within video, you don't care about this
because as long as this is why Mark Fandetti and
I were talking about like in Video's earnings as being
a non event. We know people are buying in video
chips in crazy numbers.
Speaker 3 (09:04):
Oh thank you, Mark.
Speaker 2 (09:06):
The problem is not going to be that people didn't
buy enough last quarter because we knew people were buying
tons of chips. The problem is going to come if
the company's buying the chips can't figure out a way
to turn that into revenue at a high at a
quick enough pace to cover the accelerating depreciation costs and
increase spend. That's when they eventually stop buying them and
(09:28):
things become challenging.
Speaker 4 (09:30):
Yeah, it's the last domino to fall.
Speaker 2 (09:32):
But like, if you think there is a bubble building
and the bubble is people are buying too much of something,
well then you're not really worried about the company that
people are buying too much of until they say we're
going to stop buying that stuff.
Speaker 4 (09:44):
Yeah. Yeah, you're not going to get any early signals there.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
No.
Speaker 2 (09:49):
Uh So getting back to the talk about the FED
and how this all dovetails there, Look, the FED at
any one point in time could choose to do whatever
they want, Like, there's nothing to stop them from cutting
interest rates with nine percent inflation.
Speaker 5 (10:03):
But understand that the FED is not a person, but
they do. It's not a single individual, Which is why
again I point this out, because we so much associate
the FED with j. Powell right now, and we will
then associate the FED with Kevin Hassett next year in
all likelihood. But he's got to bring at least seven
(10:25):
voting members along with him in order to make any decision.
Speaker 2 (10:31):
Yeah, And so look, the FED in theory, they can
do whatever they want at any point in time, Like
there's nothing in there, you know, charter or anything that
says you can't cut interest rates when inflation's really high.
They just know that it would be dumb, you know,
like they would lose credibility, and incredibility matters for monetary matters.
Speaker 3 (10:54):
So I think that the question.
Speaker 2 (10:56):
Here is is there a path if you're looking for
a continuation of lower interest rates?
Speaker 3 (11:05):
Is there a path in twenty twenty six?
Speaker 2 (11:08):
The number The only question that really matters there is
does inflation continue to come down? Can it, you know,
show improvement relative to the last six months where it's
jumped up a little bit? Can it improve in twenty
twenty six and if it does, regardless of what's happening
on the growth side, defen would at least have pausible
(11:28):
cover to say, yes, we can cut interest rates. If
inflation doesn't move down in twenty six, it's going to
be harder just because they won't have that cover to
do So that's kind of where we are, Like, the
inflation number is the one that matters if we're talking
about cutting am I am I wrong?
Speaker 5 (11:47):
No, I'm just thinking through because we have this argument
at the end of every year, and it seems like
a much easier path than what they have faced over
the course of the last few.
Speaker 4 (11:56):
Right we've had years we've had this time.
Speaker 5 (11:58):
Of years over the last few few where we've been
talking about inflations over three, over four, over five percent
in some cases. How are they going to be able
to bring that down without ruining the labor market? And
they've succeeded so far, so it does not seem insurmountable
to me, but it is an existing challenge.
Speaker 2 (12:16):
I do think in the short term, the next six months,
the bigger risk is to further labor market degradation. I
think once you get past May June, I think inflation
becomes more of a concern next year if you have
not had a major issue with you know, housing or labor.
Speaker 3 (12:34):
That's kind of where I am. Just take a quick break.
Speaker 2 (12:37):
When we return, do we want to talk about twenty
twenty six s and P five hundred forecasts?
Speaker 3 (12:45):
Sure, exactly, let's do that after this.
Speaker 1 (12:48):
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Speaker 7 (13:56):
Time for sure you here in the Financial Exchange. Time
magazine announced that the architects of AI are this year's
person of the Year, or people are the year I
don't know plural. Fifteen people have been named Time Magazine
Person of the Year twice. However, only one person has
ever been named Person of the Year by the magazine
(14:18):
three times. So trivia question today, who is the only
person who have been named Time Magazine Person of the
Year three times?
Speaker 4 (14:28):
Once again?
Speaker 7 (14:29):
Who is the only person who have been named Time
Magazine Person of the Year three times? Be the third
person today to text us at six one seven three
six two thirteen eighty five with the correct answer along
with the keyword trivia, and you'll win a Financial Exchange
Show T shirt.
Speaker 4 (14:47):
Once again.
Speaker 7 (14:47):
The third correct response to text us to the number
six one seven three six two thirteen eighty five along
with the keyword trivia will win that T shirt. See
complete contest rules at Fine nanashlikschenshow dot com.
Speaker 2 (15:02):
Mike rid that point of the year where everyone and
their grandmother starts predicting their twenty twenty six year end
s and P five hundred targets. And so we've got
Tom Lee out there today saying that quote. I'll quote
the headline from MarketWatch. The FED will help drive a
(15:23):
ten percent gain for stocks in twenty twenty six. Is
one of Wall Street's most accurate forecasters, Tom Lee.
Speaker 3 (15:28):
So here's the thing.
Speaker 2 (15:30):
Basically, every investment bank out there takes like ten percent
is like their baseline growth for the stock market, maybe
plays around with a couple factors, and usually comes in
somewhere between like nine and eleven percent for the next
year in their projections.
Speaker 3 (15:44):
Every year.
Speaker 5 (15:46):
Yeah, you do all this math and all these models
that you allegedly have, and then it always results in
the same thing, which is the market's going to do
what it's done for one hundred years, which is not useful.
Speaker 2 (15:59):
No at all, And it doesn't tell you anything about
the path you take to get there. Like again, right now,
just as an example, if you look at the S
and P five hundred. Year to date it's up and
I'm not doing total return. I'm just doing the price
return on the index SP five hundreds, up about sixteen
and a half percent year to date.
Speaker 3 (16:20):
It hasn't exactly been the smoothest ride to get there
for the full year.
Speaker 2 (16:24):
No, you know, yes, if like you look at you know,
since April ninth, it's been you know, pretty much smooth sailing.
But Galla g Wilkers the first three and a half
months had some bumps in them.
Speaker 5 (16:35):
Also, this article points out of you know, how accurately is.
But to be clear, his initial forecast for the S
and P five hundred this year was sixty six hundred.
We're now sitting at sixty almost the nearly sixty nine hundred.
He had to bump it up to seven thousand later
in the year because we blew through it. So none
of these I don't I don't even begin to know
what anyone can do with these things or.
Speaker 4 (16:59):
Why they published that. I'm quite fun because because.
Speaker 2 (17:01):
People like us talk about them, and people are like ooh,
like they're saying this, that must mean something. I think
I think there's actually something that that's a good thought
on this which is, well, I think it's a good thought,
but that's because I came up with it. I don't
think year end targets are you know, useful in any way,
shape or form, for two reasons. The first is like,
(17:22):
no one has any idea what the year is actually
gonna bring. The second is, unless you're like specifically trying
to target a certain rate of return next year.
Speaker 3 (17:33):
Why does it even matter?
Speaker 2 (17:35):
Like if you're investing in equities, does anyone sit there
and say, you know what, I've never invested in stocks before,
but for twenty twenty six, I'm gonna put one hundred
percent of my net worth into stocks.
Speaker 1 (17:45):
No.
Speaker 2 (17:46):
What I do think is reasonable is, hey, here is
the range of long term returns, and here is you know,
how long I plan to be invested in stocks based
on my time to retirement. What are some reasonable projections
that can help me achieve my financial goals. That's a
reasonable conversation to have. Sure, what will stocks do next year?
Speaker 4 (18:11):
You know? Yeah, it's not useful information.
Speaker 2 (18:14):
You know, that's kind of like it's that that's like,
you know, will there be three ants er three hundred
at the picnic tomorrow?
Speaker 3 (18:23):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (18:25):
I just don't, but there will be ants because there
are every picnic anything else on this mic.
Speaker 4 (18:31):
No, we can move along from S and P five
hundred predictions.
Speaker 3 (18:34):
Be some bloomberg.
Speaker 2 (18:35):
Affordability isn't a hoax, but it's not a crisis for
most either.
Speaker 5 (18:39):
Your thoughts affordability might be the other than artificial intelligence.
Affordability is looking like the word of twenty twenty five.
Speaker 3 (18:47):
We got to stop using it, man, it's.
Speaker 4 (18:51):
It's getting a lot of attention. It's obviously being used.
Speaker 3 (18:54):
In context where it's just not right.
Speaker 5 (18:56):
Okay, what are those contexts that that you're you're hearing
that don't make any sense to you?
Speaker 2 (19:02):
Well, like when when we talk about affordability, like it
implies that there's a right level of affordability and there's
not like that.
Speaker 5 (19:13):
That's I think the only useful context to discuss affordability
is compared to some time in the past. That's the
only reasonable context you can have. Otherwise you're just making
things up. And it's not to say that they're uninformed makeups, right,
Like the certified finished planners target thirty percent of your
income to be used on housing as an affordable you
know index, But again they made it up right, there's
(19:36):
no there's no reason or law behind this. It's just
that was what they came up with. And so that's
what I think is interesting. And to Alison Schrager's point,
the author of this piece, it hasn't significantly worsened over
the last few years for the majority of Americans, but
that's seemingly not what people are focused on.
Speaker 3 (19:54):
Let's take a quick break.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
When we return, we've got the Trivia Answer and Wall
Street Watch.
Speaker 8 (20:00):
After this, bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio.
Every day, it's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange
Radio Network. Time now for Wall Street Watch.
Speaker 1 (20:23):
A complete look at what's moving markets so far today,
right here on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 7 (20:29):
Well one day after the FED delivered its expected interest
rate cut, markets today are mixed Oracles, the UH one
of the top stories of the day after its disappointing
quarterly revenue and increase spending forecast fueled deck concerns on
Wall Street. Oracle shares are currently plunging about fourteen percent
right now. The Dow is up one percent or four
(20:53):
hundred and eighty six points s and P five hundred
is down a third of a percent or twenty three
points lower, NASDAC down just over one percent, or two
hundred and forty eight points. Russell two thousand is up
about a half a percent, Tenure Treasure reeled down four
basis points at four point one two two percent, and
Crude Oil retreating two percent today trading at fifty seven
(21:16):
dollars and twenty seven cents a barrel. Other AI names
are seeing sympathy losses in reaction to Oracles earnings. In
Vidia down by excuse me, all of in Nvidia Broadcommon
AMD are down over three percent. Speaking of AI, Disney
this morning said that it announced a one billion dollar
(21:39):
equity investment in open Ai. The investment will allow users
to make videos of more than two hundred of Disney's
copyrighted characters on open AI's video platform Sora, including Marvel
Pixar in Star Wars. Disney up over one percent today. Meanwhile,
Adobe shares arising nearly one percent. The software provider said
(22:01):
it expects double digit revenue growth next year as it
looks to expand its AI business elsewhere. ELI Lilly said
a late stage trial of its next gen obesity drug
delivered what appears to be the highest weight loss yet
while reducing nee arthritis pain. ELI stock is climbing over
three percent, and Shares and Veil Resorts are now rallying
(22:23):
eight percent after the ski resorts operator sold fewer passes
heading into peak season, but its CEO said Vale's turnaround
strategy was starting to deliver. I'm Tucker Silva in That
is Wall Street Watch and in the previous segment, we
asked you the trivia question, who is the only person
to have been named Time Magazine Person of the Year
three times? That would be Fdr Kevin from Dennis Mass
(22:48):
is our winner today taking on a Financial Exchange Show.
Speaker 3 (22:50):
Chee shirt.
Speaker 7 (22:51):
Congrats to Kevin and we played trivia every day here
in the Financial Exchange See complete contest rules at Financial
Exchange Show dot com.
Speaker 3 (23:00):
I always enjoy when we get to talk a little
bit about beef.
Speaker 4 (23:03):
I know you do chuck, but not in this context.
Speaker 2 (23:05):
No, this, this is kind of mixed feelings. I'm having
mixed feelings, especially.
Speaker 7 (23:10):
With Christmas coming up right. Those ten d's are pretty expensive.
Speaker 3 (23:14):
It's it's it's a real problem here.
Speaker 5 (23:16):
If you attend the Age holiday party, you'll be primarily
fish to can tuna.
Speaker 2 (23:22):
It's Mark Fandandy and I will be putting on the
Feast of the Seven Fishes.
Speaker 3 (23:26):
Yeah, and we'll be doing what we can. But uh, yeah,
here's what we've got going on.
Speaker 2 (23:31):
Beef prices have gone up twenty depending on like the
specific metric you're looking at, anywhere from about fifteen to
thirty percent. But choice boneless steak is up twenty percent
in the past year. So you what this piece of
The New York Times is talking about is specifically steakhouses,
and once across the spectrum from the high end ones
where you're you know, paying sixty to eighty dollars a
(23:54):
steak to your you know, mid market you know out
back Longhorn, Like, You've got this spectrum of different pricing
in steakhouses, and what we're seeing is not unlike what
we're seeing elsewhere, which is the high end steakhouses are
basically saying, yeah, customers aren't really pushing back on higher pricing,
and the mid market and down market ones are saying, yeah,
(24:18):
we're seeing, you know, traffic changing if we adjust pricing higher.
Speaker 5 (24:23):
Yeah, And so they find, just like the grocery store does,
they find creative ways to sneak this in. Right, if
you run a steakhouse, you don't need to make money
on your stakes necessarily, right. You can sell them a
cost as long as you make money on booze and
on sides and everything else. And so they're not likely
increasing prices to capture the full price increase that they
(24:44):
are experiencing. But yeah, you're seeing prices move up and
people not thrilled about it, I guess, is the only way.
Speaker 3 (24:53):
To put it.
Speaker 5 (24:54):
And again, like the egg situation, it's not as though
there's a quick fix to this one either, unless we're
going to se suddenly allow.
Speaker 4 (25:01):
This is a longer fix right before imports from everywhere.
Speaker 3 (25:04):
You know, it's you just.
Speaker 2 (25:05):
Look at again, I know only a little about how
you know commercial uh, slaughterhouse, live livestock farms work. And
the big thing, like the single biggest thing is look
the turnaround times for raising larger animals like cows. It's
longer than raising chickens. Yeah, and so you like, you
(25:25):
just have more time a that has to elapse and
B when we talk about cow herd size and things
like that.
Speaker 3 (25:33):
Farms are you know, very wary of moving too quickly.
Speaker 2 (25:36):
As well, just because they don't want to get burnt
if demand changes.
Speaker 3 (25:40):
They have in the past decade.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
Or so, and so it might be like a three
to five year process to getting beef prices to normalize
relative to incomes.
Speaker 5 (25:51):
Yeah, yeah, it'll likely take away a while folks. Brand
new guide from the Armstrong Advisory Group, and this one
is all about heading for retirement as a married couple.
Speaker 4 (26:03):
So guess what.
Speaker 5 (26:03):
There's a few people that this wouldn't be relevant for.
And if you're single and heading towards retirement, you can
drown me out for a minute here. But if you
are heading to retirement, there are a few things that
I think make it especially challenging as a married couple.
And it's not so much that it's insurmountable, but it
requires more planning than otherwise. There's a few items that
(26:26):
I go through in my mind. One a significant age
difference between spouses, and really significant can be anything over
three year age difference, So I know that's not that
big a gap, but when you have a three plus
year age difference, you're talking about all sorts of things
like social security planning, medicare planning. That requires a lot
of thinking. The other one would be a big division
(26:48):
of assets or a big weighting of assets or income.
For one sport spouse versus the other. So one person
was a stay at home parent all their career, the
other one saved all the money into the four oh
one k. That is going to require a little bit
of more planning than say, you know, people who have
a sixty to forty split between assets, or say one
(27:08):
spouse has a large pension and the other one is
just living off of social Security. Again, these are the
items that you have to think about and really do
some extra planning if you fall into one of those buckets.
In either case, you can get your free copy of
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Speaker 4 (27:32):
Plus a lot more.
Speaker 5 (27:34):
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Speaker 1 (27:42):
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Speaker 2 (27:57):
Mike, I want to talk about this piece from Wall
Street Journal. It will soon be curtains for the movie theater,
and it's kind of interesting to me in that the
subhetter is older generations can't be bothered to go when
younger people want to stream their films.
Speaker 3 (28:12):
And I think that the.
Speaker 2 (28:16):
Big thing is it very well could be possible that
the movie theater as a mass market vehicle for entertainment
might just have like one hundred year shelf life. It's
not to say that you won't continue to have movie
theaters exist in some form, but people today just have
more choices as to how they can access their entertainment
(28:38):
than ever before, and they're controlling that access with more
granularity as well as far as you know what they
do throughout any part.
Speaker 3 (28:47):
Of the day.
Speaker 5 (28:48):
And I think Jerry Seinfeld put it pretty well here
right his quote on this in GQ. Film doesn't occupy
the pinnacle in the social cultural hierarchy that it did
for most of our life. When a movie came out,
if it was good, we all went to see it,
We all discussed it, we quoted lines and scenes we
liked now we're.
Speaker 4 (29:06):
Walking through a fire hose of water, just trying to see.
Speaker 5 (29:10):
And I don't know if the fire hose of water
is the perfect analogy, but one hundred percent different than
what it was like growing up when a big movie
hit the screens, right, Like, we just do not socialize
in the same way over these things that we did previously,
and that is a big problem for theaters.
Speaker 3 (29:30):
I disagree, and I over movies.
Speaker 2 (29:34):
Yes, I'm not going to say I'm smarter than Jerry
Seinfeld about media because he's smarter and he'll bury me
with like some kind of cutting quote if he ever
listened to our show, which I'm sure he doesn't, but
maybe he does. Jerry, if you're listening, love your work.
Here's the thing. When the right movies come along, they
still become cultural touchstones.
Speaker 3 (29:56):
Well, just in the last few years, Top Gun Maverick
back in twenty.
Speaker 2 (30:01):
Everyone was talking about it, Barbenheimer in twenty three and
twenty four, I'm sorry, in twenty three everyone was talking
about both of those movies.
Speaker 3 (30:11):
And the right movie.
Speaker 2 (30:13):
I also believe can catapult someone to start him in
a way that no other medium still does. You know, Mike,
can you name me one person who achieves like that
true Like like, when's the last person who had true
achieved that true a list status like that that celebrity
that just everyone knows through a streaming platform or TV.
Speaker 4 (30:34):
Show, Tina Fey. I think there are plenty of Tina.
Speaker 2 (30:39):
Fe is not no way like I'm talking. I'm talking
like Tom Cruise level. I'm talking like like that level.
You can't get there, Tina Faye.
Speaker 1 (30:52):
What the health?
Speaker 3 (30:54):
You know it's on Saturday Ight Live.
Speaker 2 (30:56):
You know what, who's the last person who like came
through a streaming platform and became that big or Again,
this is just kind of like everything is more disjointed
in all these other places. There are podcast stars, but
like I don't know who half these people are, what
they look like. But just as an example, top Gun Maverick,
if I say the name Glenn Powell, now everyone knows
(31:19):
that kind of catapulted him on the rise that he's
been on the last few years.
Speaker 3 (31:22):
Now.
Speaker 4 (31:23):
Yeah, I don't know, Chuck, that it's necessary.
Speaker 5 (31:25):
Like I hear you that there were some big movies
over the last few years, but that is not going
to save movie theaters.
Speaker 2 (31:31):
I'm not saying it will save movie theaters like My
point is not that movie theaters can be saved. My
point is that movies, specifically ones that are able to
be shown in theaters, have a way of catapulting someone
and an idea into the national consciousness in a way
that no other medium still has been able to figure out.
Speaker 7 (31:52):
I'll give you one. What do you got Millie Bobby Brown?
Speaker 3 (31:56):
I don't know who that is?
Speaker 7 (31:57):
Yes, you do Stranger Things?
Speaker 3 (32:00):
Is she that big?
Speaker 7 (32:01):
She's pretty huge right now?
Speaker 3 (32:03):
Yeah, I mean like I don't know, yeah, no, she
I think yeah.
Speaker 7 (32:07):
I think that's a great example of a Netflix star
who is just huge.
Speaker 4 (32:11):
Now I'm gonna diverge on this.
Speaker 5 (32:13):
I do not think that the movie is the necessity
to catapult people's careers anymore.
Speaker 4 (32:19):
I think it used to be, and I don't.
Speaker 5 (32:22):
I don't think it, but maybe it never did though,
Like no, Jerry, Jerry Seinfeld like, how can you how
can you look at somebody like that?
Speaker 2 (32:31):
Garry Seinfeld is like, there's a different level of stardom
that you can get to, Like Jerry, you know, I'm
dead serious on this. When we're talking about like that elite,
elite level that you can reach through movies. I don't
think any other medium gets you there. It's it's kind
(32:53):
of like, if you're comparing Tom Brady and Peyton Manning
in pure stuff, they might be similar. Tom Brady reached
a level of global stardom that Peyton Manning never did
and never will.
Speaker 3 (33:08):
The Peyton's pretty big.
Speaker 2 (33:11):
Peyton's not Tom Brady. You could there were times when
you could not escape Tom Brady. You've never been able
to not escape Peyton Manning. Ivey's watched TV and all
the commercials he's on. Okay, he's doing commercials. Everyone does
commercials now. This is another thing that's interesting to me.
It used to be celebrities only did commercials outside the
United States.
Speaker 3 (33:32):
Now they do them everywhere.
Speaker 2 (33:33):
That's something that is different that is interesting to me,
Like you never used to see celebrities doing commercials and
now it's the norm.
Speaker 3 (33:41):
That's another kind of interesting shift. But in any case,
let's take a break on this and when we return,
Stack Roulette.
Speaker 1 (33:49):
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Speaker 3 (34:59):
Fight.
Speaker 2 (34:59):
Do you mind if I start off tech us off Chuck.
I want to start this piece of The New York Times.
It's titled Meta's New Ai superstars are chafing against the
rest of the company, And quite honestly, most of this
article I don't really find that interesting. It's okay, like,
there's a bunch of new people in town trying to,
you know, help Meta build AI, and they're fighting with
the old guard about you know, what their.
Speaker 3 (35:20):
Resources should be used.
Speaker 2 (35:21):
For sure, that happens at every big company, especially when
you pay like billions of dollars to bring in talent.
Speaker 3 (35:26):
Okay, fine, like there's nothing that interesting to me there.
Speaker 2 (35:29):
But I did find something interesting about two thirds of
the way through the piece, I will quote the New
York Times. Mister Zuckerberg and mister Wang then went on
a recruiting blitz for the top AI researchers, offering pay
packages worth hundreds of millions. Mark Chen, open AI's chief
research officer, said, mister Zuckerberg has gone as far as
(35:50):
delivering homemade soup to the doorsteps of some open ai
employees to persuade them to join his company. So what
I find interesting here is a like, I wonder has
duck soup? Is like, you know what what kind of
soup we see? You know, a chicken noodle?
Speaker 1 (36:06):
Guy?
Speaker 3 (36:06):
Was he broccoli? Cheddar? Was the chili? Was it the chowder?
Speaker 2 (36:09):
Like one question, but the other piece that I find
interesting just in the context of all this AI bologney.
So I'm just I'm getting there, man, I'm getting there.
Despite the fact that we think AI is going to
change the world by like getting rid of humans, the
pitch to try to get someone to come to your company.
Speaker 4 (36:31):
Is a distinctly human activities.
Speaker 2 (36:32):
Is trying to bring them soup in person? Like isn't
that just doesn't that sum up everything here? Like, yes,
we're trying to build tools to replace people because we
don't like people.
Speaker 3 (36:47):
But here's some soup that I made. Yeah, maybe it's.
Speaker 5 (36:50):
Pretty uniquely dystopian. I want to talk about houses. We
haven't checked in on this stat in a little while.
The total listing count in the United States as of October,
which is the most recent data that I can find,
hit one point one million. We are closer than we
have been since COVID to a more normalized housing market.
That listing count is now ninety one percent of where
(37:13):
we were in October of twenty nineteen, so single families
only four percent below, right, So we are pretty darn close.
In spite of that, the sales price data that I
have goes as far as Q two of twenty twenty five,
so we're a little bit far behind on this one.
But the listing, sorry, the median sales price for houses
sold in the United States are still twenty seven point
(37:36):
four percent higher than.
Speaker 4 (37:38):
Where we were in Q two of twenty nineteen.
Speaker 5 (37:40):
So I know that everyone listening has experienced this directly
and is kind of snickering, like, yeah, no kidding, Mike,
But that is, you know, pretty compelling case of supply
and demand.
Speaker 4 (37:53):
Here.
Speaker 5 (37:53):
Supply is nearly back to where we were in twenty nineteen,
prices staying considerably higher than where they were back in
twenty nineteen, Yeah, and but falling falling consistently since Q
four of twenty twenty two.
Speaker 2 (38:09):
I'll point down it's it's going to be a one
to three year adjustment period for home prices, and on
the back end of that, we will feel that affordability
is back into a more normal range that we are
used to relative to our incomes. But it's going to
take some time to get there, and there's going to
be some pain in the housing sector along the way. Unfortunately.
(38:30):
That's kind of what it looks like let's take a
quick break for the rest of the day. We're gonna
finish the week up tomorrow. We'll finish it strong. We've
got Broadcom earnings tonight, so I'm sure we'll be covering
those tomorrow, given how big the company is. Market's still
mixed now up one percent, SMP down and a half,
NASDAC down one and a quarter.
Speaker 3 (38:50):
We'll see it tomorrow on the Financial Exchange.
The Financial Exchange is produced by Money Matters Radio and
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(01:06):
and Mike Armstraw.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
Chuck Mike Tucker with you here and kicking things off.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
We've got mixed markets today.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, or the Dow as it's
commonly referred to, up four hundred and forty nine points
almost one percent, to a new all time high of
forty eight five oh six point seventy five. We got
an outside shot another three percent. You're at fifty thousand,
mic ooh, might get that before the end of the year.
That could be fun. Yeah, bout fifty thousand. It's been
(01:37):
a while since we had a nice big round number there.
It has s and P five hundred down twenty one points,
about a third of a percent at sixty eight sixty five,
and the NASDAK composite down to twenty seven about one
percent at twenty three four to twenty six. Uh. We've
got the ten year US Treasury down four point six
basis points to four point one one eight percent. Dollar
(01:58):
Index falling in sympathy down point five nine percent to
ninety eight point one eight five.
Speaker 3 (02:03):
Gold also up.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
In sympathy there, up sixty dollars announced to forty two
eighty four and seventy cents, and we got crude oil
down a dollar five a barrel to fifty seven forty one,
triple a national average. Four gas price is flat relative
to yesterday, still a two ninety four, so we remain
about two percent below that three dollars per gallon mark.
(02:27):
UH yesterday, Federal Reserve met cut interest rates by a
quarter percent. Talked about a bunch of stuff. The market
rally today it's given some of that back. So I
think the market's you know, kind of a combination of
sorting that out plus some Oracle earnings which on the
surface were fine ish but under the hood show that
they have major problems with cash flow that need to
be remedied by either more borrowing or more revenue. And
(02:50):
the market would prefer more revenue, but thus far the
revenue is not there.
Speaker 4 (02:54):
But the borrowing is.
Speaker 3 (02:55):
The borrowing is, and so good luck.
Speaker 4 (02:58):
One of the data point eight thirty eight.
Speaker 5 (03:00):
This morning we saw the release of the weekly jobless claims,
biggest jump in four and a half years, to two
hundred and thirty six thousand in the week ending December sixth.
That having been said most out there dismissing this as
likely seasonal noise, it is very difficult for this group
to try and adjust everything during the holiday season on
(03:21):
a week to week basis, where a lot of people
are taking and then leaving temporary jobs. I think ups
delivery drivers runners.
Speaker 2 (03:28):
Thanksgiving was also a week later than last year, and
so this is so basically, we had an undercount last week,
we've got an overcount this week. When he averaged it out,
it's basically okay, we're still around two hundred and twenty
thousand claims, which is where we were before. Now you
have seen on the continuing claims, which run a week
behind in the reporting, so we're only getting the reporting
(03:49):
for the November twenty ninth week. On continuing claims, they're
seeing the same thing. So they came in with a
drop of one hundred thousand this week. They will likely
show an overcount next week of that same hundred thousand.
I don't really put much stock into any of this.
I don't think anything's changed dramatically in the labor market
for the better or the worse in the last two weeks.
Speaker 5 (04:08):
No, but if we get you know, three four weeks
of forty four thousand increases in weekly jobs claims, we'll
let you know and you should be scared about that.
Speaker 2 (04:15):
Yeah, if we start seeing you know, jobless claims at
three hundred thousand for several weeks in a row, yep, Okay,
we got a problem here.
Speaker 3 (04:21):
Yep, thus far we don't. We're fine.
Speaker 2 (04:25):
Let's see barons with the piece. This question looms large
over the twenty twenty six stock market.
Speaker 3 (04:31):
Will McDonald's bring back the McRib.
Speaker 4 (04:33):
And will they advertise it using artificial intelligence?
Speaker 3 (04:37):
What's the actual question looming over the market?
Speaker 5 (04:39):
Mind changes at the FED and will they be able
to successfully cut rates and stimulate the economy the way
that the President wants to and what will actually happen if.
Speaker 4 (04:48):
They do so.
Speaker 5 (04:51):
J Pali just presided over his fourth to last yeah,
one of his last four meetings as chair of the
Federal Reserve.
Speaker 4 (05:00):
Kevin Hassett yea.
Speaker 5 (05:01):
He's got three more next year, right, is very likely
to be taking his place as far as we know,
and that the President has pushed pretty hard for lower
interest rates. I think the question that we got after
today's meeting is will anyone Kevin has to included, be
able to bring those Federal Reserve members along for that ride,
(05:21):
Because even at this meeting, it seemed like Jay had
to do some degree of cajoling to get them across
that finish line.
Speaker 2 (05:28):
Yeah, and if you look at the projections for next
year right now and again, these are you know, early,
and they're not always right. Remember a lot of times
these projections are wrong. Going into twenty twenty two, market
was projecting the Federal was gonna hike interest rates three
to four times. They ended up hiking them the equivalent
of I think sixteen hikes maybe it was seventeen over
(05:49):
the course of the year. So, like you, these things
are not accurate. Like the market is not always right,
it's just pricing in you know what people think today.
So I think going forward next year, the battle that
is out there for the economy, which then is going
to determine what the Fed is able to do, is Hey,
(06:13):
on the weakening side of things, you've got housing in
the labor market. On the improving side of things, potentially
consumer spending with some more tax tax deductions and credits
for the next filing season, as well as some business
deductions that kick in. So does the fiscal side override
the weakness that we're seeing in those parts? And then
also does AI continue to see this exponential increase in spend,
(06:37):
or do we start to see some pullback there because
the revenue and profit isn't there.
Speaker 5 (06:42):
I was gonna say, Jack, I don't mean to make
everything in our lives about this AI narrative, but it
has to be. The whole ballgame, at least for the
US stock market right now, is how quickly can companies
monetize artificial intelligence. It's been three years, there's been little
to no monitization. And how willing are investors to play that?
Speaker 4 (07:05):
Play that.
Speaker 5 (07:07):
Game out for another twelve, eighteen, twenty four months, because
at some point, as we're seeing this morning with Oracle,
investors just say what's.
Speaker 4 (07:18):
The path to profitability here?
Speaker 3 (07:20):
Yes?
Speaker 5 (07:20):
So that's kind of the whole ballgame to me. I
know it does not affect every person's job. I know
it doesn't affect inflation. I don't know it doesn't directly
affect any of these things. But if you don't get that,
then you eventually get a stock market that starts to
question all of this. And guess what, if you're buying
the S and P five hundred today, you're making a
pretty darn big bet on artificial intelligence, like it or not,
(07:43):
you are.
Speaker 2 (07:43):
It's at some point investors get all rod Tidwell on
you and say show me the money. And that's what
they're doing to Oracle today. And Oracle has a shorter
clock than these other companies.
Speaker 5 (07:57):
Why is that they just don't have enough cash. Their
financials are not as good. Yeah, yeah, the Google obviously
there's nothing else really coming their way. But you know what, honestly,
open Ai doesn't have a much longer runway than an
Oracle does that we don't know because they're a privately
held company. But at some point who else is going
to keep giving you all this money?
Speaker 2 (08:16):
But open Ai? The difference is twofold number one. They're
like they are private yep. So that's one piece. But
you also can just with with open Ai if you
want to. You can just let your imagination run wild,
like you can be like, wow, this company can change everything.
(08:38):
With Oracle to a certain extent, you're kind of like, Okay,
they're building data centers to power open Ai, and that's
what they're doing.
Speaker 5 (08:47):
Yeah, that pick and shovel argument, the comparison of the
gold rush only goes so far.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
You know, with within video, you don't care about this
because as long as this is why Mark Fandetti and
I were talking about like in Video's earnings as being
a non event. We know people are buying in video
chips in crazy numbers.
Speaker 3 (09:04):
Oh thank you, Mark.
Speaker 2 (09:06):
The problem is not going to be that people didn't
buy enough last quarter because we knew people were buying
tons of chips. The problem is going to come if
the company's buying the chips can't figure out a way
to turn that into revenue at a high at a
quick enough pace to cover the accelerating depreciation costs and
increase spend. That's when they eventually stop buying them and
(09:28):
things become challenging.
Speaker 4 (09:30):
Yeah, it's the last domino to fall.
Speaker 2 (09:32):
But like, if you think there is a bubble building
and the bubble is people are buying too much of something,
well then you're not really worried about the company that
people are buying too much of until they say we're
going to stop buying that stuff.
Speaker 4 (09:44):
Yeah. Yeah, you're not going to get any early signals there.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
No.
Speaker 2 (09:49):
Uh So getting back to the talk about the FED
and how this all dovetails there, Look, the FED at
any one point in time could choose to do whatever
they want, Like, there's nothing to stop them from cutting
interest rates with nine percent inflation.
Speaker 5 (10:03):
But understand that the FED is not a person, but
they do. It's not a single individual, Which is why
again I point this out, because we so much associate
the FED with j. Powell right now, and we will
then associate the FED with Kevin Hassett next year in
all likelihood. But he's got to bring at least seven
(10:25):
voting members along with him in order to make any decision.
Speaker 2 (10:31):
Yeah, And so look, the FED in theory, they can
do whatever they want at any point in time, Like
there's nothing in there, you know, charter or anything that
says you can't cut interest rates when inflation's really high.
They just know that it would be dumb, you know,
like they would lose credibility, and incredibility matters for monetary matters.
Speaker 3 (10:54):
So I think that the question.
Speaker 2 (10:56):
Here is is there a path if you're looking for
a continuation of lower interest rates?
Speaker 3 (11:05):
Is there a path in twenty twenty six?
Speaker 2 (11:08):
The number The only question that really matters there is
does inflation continue to come down? Can it, you know,
show improvement relative to the last six months where it's
jumped up a little bit? Can it improve in twenty
twenty six and if it does, regardless of what's happening
on the growth side, defen would at least have pausible
(11:28):
cover to say, yes, we can cut interest rates. If
inflation doesn't move down in twenty six, it's going to
be harder just because they won't have that cover to
do So that's kind of where we are, Like, the
inflation number is the one that matters if we're talking
about cutting am I am I wrong?
Speaker 5 (11:47):
No, I'm just thinking through because we have this argument
at the end of every year, and it seems like
a much easier path than what they have faced over
the course of the last few.
Speaker 4 (11:56):
Right we've had years we've had this time.
Speaker 5 (11:58):
Of years over the last few few where we've been
talking about inflations over three, over four, over five percent
in some cases. How are they going to be able
to bring that down without ruining the labor market? And
they've succeeded so far, so it does not seem insurmountable
to me, but it is an existing challenge.
Speaker 2 (12:16):
I do think in the short term, the next six months,
the bigger risk is to further labor market degradation. I
think once you get past May June, I think inflation
becomes more of a concern next year if you have
not had a major issue with you know, housing or labor.
Speaker 3 (12:34):
That's kind of where I am. Just take a quick break.
Speaker 2 (12:37):
When we return, do we want to talk about twenty
twenty six s and P five hundred forecasts?
Speaker 3 (12:45):
Sure, exactly, let's do that after this.
Speaker 1 (12:48):
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on our YouTube page. Like us on YouTube and get
caught up on anything and everything you might have missed.
This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 7 (13:56):
Time for sure you here in the Financial Exchange. Time
magazine announced that the architects of AI are this year's
person of the Year, or people are the year I
don't know plural. Fifteen people have been named Time Magazine
Person of the Year twice. However, only one person has
ever been named Person of the Year by the magazine
(14:18):
three times. So trivia question today, who is the only
person who have been named Time Magazine Person of the
Year three times?
Speaker 4 (14:28):
Once again?
Speaker 7 (14:29):
Who is the only person who have been named Time
Magazine Person of the Year three times? Be the third
person today to text us at six one seven three
six two thirteen eighty five with the correct answer along
with the keyword trivia, and you'll win a Financial Exchange
Show T shirt.
Speaker 4 (14:47):
Once again.
Speaker 7 (14:47):
The third correct response to text us to the number
six one seven three six two thirteen eighty five along
with the keyword trivia will win that T shirt. See
complete contest rules at Fine nanashlikschenshow dot com.
Speaker 2 (15:02):
Mike rid that point of the year where everyone and
their grandmother starts predicting their twenty twenty six year end
s and P five hundred targets. And so we've got
Tom Lee out there today saying that quote. I'll quote
the headline from MarketWatch. The FED will help drive a
(15:23):
ten percent gain for stocks in twenty twenty six. Is
one of Wall Street's most accurate forecasters, Tom Lee.
Speaker 3 (15:28):
So here's the thing.
Speaker 2 (15:30):
Basically, every investment bank out there takes like ten percent
is like their baseline growth for the stock market, maybe
plays around with a couple factors, and usually comes in
somewhere between like nine and eleven percent for the next
year in their projections.
Speaker 3 (15:44):
Every year.
Speaker 5 (15:46):
Yeah, you do all this math and all these models
that you allegedly have, and then it always results in
the same thing, which is the market's going to do
what it's done for one hundred years, which is not useful.
Speaker 2 (15:59):
No at all, And it doesn't tell you anything about
the path you take to get there. Like again, right now,
just as an example, if you look at the S
and P five hundred. Year to date it's up and
I'm not doing total return. I'm just doing the price
return on the index SP five hundreds, up about sixteen
and a half percent year to date.
Speaker 3 (16:20):
It hasn't exactly been the smoothest ride to get there
for the full year.
Speaker 2 (16:24):
No, you know, yes, if like you look at you know,
since April ninth, it's been you know, pretty much smooth sailing.
But Galla g Wilkers the first three and a half
months had some bumps in them.
Speaker 5 (16:35):
Also, this article points out of you know, how accurately is.
But to be clear, his initial forecast for the S
and P five hundred this year was sixty six hundred.
We're now sitting at sixty almost the nearly sixty nine hundred.
He had to bump it up to seven thousand later
in the year because we blew through it. So none
of these I don't I don't even begin to know
what anyone can do with these things or.
Speaker 4 (16:59):
Why they published that. I'm quite fun because because.
Speaker 2 (17:01):
People like us talk about them, and people are like ooh,
like they're saying this, that must mean something. I think
I think there's actually something that that's a good thought
on this which is, well, I think it's a good thought,
but that's because I came up with it. I don't
think year end targets are you know, useful in any way,
shape or form, for two reasons. The first is like,
(17:22):
no one has any idea what the year is actually
gonna bring. The second is, unless you're like specifically trying
to target a certain rate of return next year.
Speaker 3 (17:33):
Why does it even matter?
Speaker 2 (17:35):
Like if you're investing in equities, does anyone sit there
and say, you know what, I've never invested in stocks before,
but for twenty twenty six, I'm gonna put one hundred
percent of my net worth into stocks.
Speaker 1 (17:45):
No.
Speaker 2 (17:46):
What I do think is reasonable is, hey, here is
the range of long term returns, and here is you know,
how long I plan to be invested in stocks based
on my time to retirement. What are some reasonable projections
that can help me achieve my financial goals. That's a
reasonable conversation to have. Sure, what will stocks do next year?
Speaker 4 (18:11):
You know? Yeah, it's not useful information.
Speaker 2 (18:14):
You know, that's kind of like it's that that's like,
you know, will there be three ants er three hundred
at the picnic tomorrow?
Speaker 3 (18:23):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (18:25):
I just don't, but there will be ants because there
are every picnic anything else on this mic.
Speaker 4 (18:31):
No, we can move along from S and P five
hundred predictions.
Speaker 3 (18:34):
Be some bloomberg.
Speaker 2 (18:35):
Affordability isn't a hoax, but it's not a crisis for
most either.
Speaker 5 (18:39):
Your thoughts affordability might be the other than artificial intelligence.
Affordability is looking like the word of twenty twenty five.
Speaker 3 (18:47):
We got to stop using it, man, it's.
Speaker 4 (18:51):
It's getting a lot of attention. It's obviously being used.
Speaker 3 (18:54):
In context where it's just not right.
Speaker 5 (18:56):
Okay, what are those contexts that that you're you're hearing
that don't make any sense to you?
Speaker 2 (19:02):
Well, like when when we talk about affordability, like it
implies that there's a right level of affordability and there's
not like that.
Speaker 5 (19:13):
That's I think the only useful context to discuss affordability
is compared to some time in the past. That's the
only reasonable context you can have. Otherwise you're just making
things up. And it's not to say that they're uninformed makeups, right,
Like the certified finished planners target thirty percent of your
income to be used on housing as an affordable you
know index, But again they made it up right, there's
(19:36):
no there's no reason or law behind this. It's just
that was what they came up with. And so that's
what I think is interesting. And to Alison Schrager's point,
the author of this piece, it hasn't significantly worsened over
the last few years for the majority of Americans, but
that's seemingly not what people are focused on.
Speaker 3 (19:54):
Let's take a quick break.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
When we return, we've got the Trivia Answer and Wall
Street Watch.
Speaker 8 (20:00):
After this, bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio.
Every day, it's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange
Radio Network. Time now for Wall Street Watch.
Speaker 1 (20:23):
A complete look at what's moving markets so far today,
right here on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 7 (20:29):
Well one day after the FED delivered its expected interest
rate cut, markets today are mixed Oracles, the UH one
of the top stories of the day after its disappointing
quarterly revenue and increase spending forecast fueled deck concerns on
Wall Street. Oracle shares are currently plunging about fourteen percent
right now. The Dow is up one percent or four
(20:53):
hundred and eighty six points s and P five hundred
is down a third of a percent or twenty three
points lower, NASDAC down just over one percent, or two
hundred and forty eight points. Russell two thousand is up
about a half a percent, Tenure Treasure reeled down four
basis points at four point one two two percent, and
Crude Oil retreating two percent today trading at fifty seven
(21:16):
dollars and twenty seven cents a barrel. Other AI names
are seeing sympathy losses in reaction to Oracles earnings. In
Vidia down by excuse me, all of in Nvidia Broadcommon
AMD are down over three percent. Speaking of AI, Disney
this morning said that it announced a one billion dollar
(21:39):
equity investment in open Ai. The investment will allow users
to make videos of more than two hundred of Disney's
copyrighted characters on open AI's video platform Sora, including Marvel
Pixar in Star Wars. Disney up over one percent today. Meanwhile,
Adobe shares arising nearly one percent. The software provider said
(22:01):
it expects double digit revenue growth next year as it
looks to expand its AI business elsewhere. ELI Lilly said
a late stage trial of its next gen obesity drug
delivered what appears to be the highest weight loss yet
while reducing nee arthritis pain. ELI stock is climbing over
three percent, and Shares and Veil Resorts are now rallying
(22:23):
eight percent after the ski resorts operator sold fewer passes
heading into peak season, but its CEO said Vale's turnaround
strategy was starting to deliver. I'm Tucker Silva in That
is Wall Street Watch and in the previous segment, we
asked you the trivia question, who is the only person
to have been named Time Magazine Person of the Year
three times? That would be Fdr Kevin from Dennis Mass
(22:48):
is our winner today taking on a Financial Exchange Show.
Speaker 3 (22:50):
Chee shirt.
Speaker 7 (22:51):
Congrats to Kevin and we played trivia every day here
in the Financial Exchange See complete contest rules at Financial
Exchange Show dot com.
Speaker 3 (23:00):
I always enjoy when we get to talk a little
bit about beef.
Speaker 4 (23:03):
I know you do chuck, but not in this context.
Speaker 2 (23:05):
No, this, this is kind of mixed feelings. I'm having
mixed feelings, especially.
Speaker 7 (23:10):
With Christmas coming up right. Those ten d's are pretty expensive.
Speaker 3 (23:14):
It's it's it's a real problem here.
Speaker 5 (23:16):
If you attend the Age holiday party, you'll be primarily
fish to can tuna.
Speaker 2 (23:22):
It's Mark Fandandy and I will be putting on the
Feast of the Seven Fishes.
Speaker 3 (23:26):
Yeah, and we'll be doing what we can. But uh, yeah,
here's what we've got going on.
Speaker 2 (23:31):
Beef prices have gone up twenty depending on like the
specific metric you're looking at, anywhere from about fifteen to
thirty percent. But choice boneless steak is up twenty percent
in the past year. So you what this piece of
The New York Times is talking about is specifically steakhouses,
and once across the spectrum from the high end ones
where you're you know, paying sixty to eighty dollars a
(23:54):
steak to your you know, mid market you know out
back Longhorn, Like, You've got this spectrum of different pricing
in steakhouses, and what we're seeing is not unlike what
we're seeing elsewhere, which is the high end steakhouses are
basically saying, yeah, customers aren't really pushing back on higher pricing,
and the mid market and down market ones are saying, yeah,
(24:18):
we're seeing, you know, traffic changing if we adjust pricing higher.
Speaker 5 (24:23):
Yeah, And so they find, just like the grocery store does,
they find creative ways to sneak this in. Right, if
you run a steakhouse, you don't need to make money
on your stakes necessarily, right. You can sell them a
cost as long as you make money on booze and
on sides and everything else. And so they're not likely
increasing prices to capture the full price increase that they
(24:44):
are experiencing. But yeah, you're seeing prices move up and
people not thrilled about it, I guess, is the only way.
Speaker 3 (24:53):
To put it.
Speaker 5 (24:54):
And again, like the egg situation, it's not as though
there's a quick fix to this one either, unless we're
going to se suddenly allow.
Speaker 4 (25:01):
This is a longer fix right before imports from everywhere.
Speaker 3 (25:04):
You know, it's you just.
Speaker 2 (25:05):
Look at again, I know only a little about how
you know commercial uh, slaughterhouse, live livestock farms work. And
the big thing, like the single biggest thing is look
the turnaround times for raising larger animals like cows. It's
longer than raising chickens. Yeah, and so you like, you
(25:25):
just have more time a that has to elapse and
B when we talk about cow herd size and things
like that.
Speaker 3 (25:33):
Farms are you know, very wary of moving too quickly.
Speaker 2 (25:36):
As well, just because they don't want to get burnt
if demand changes.
Speaker 3 (25:40):
They have in the past decade.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
Or so, and so it might be like a three
to five year process to getting beef prices to normalize
relative to incomes.
Speaker 5 (25:51):
Yeah, yeah, it'll likely take away a while folks. Brand
new guide from the Armstrong Advisory Group, and this one
is all about heading for retirement as a married couple.
Speaker 4 (26:03):
So guess what.
Speaker 5 (26:03):
There's a few people that this wouldn't be relevant for.
And if you're single and heading towards retirement, you can
drown me out for a minute here. But if you
are heading to retirement, there are a few things that
I think make it especially challenging as a married couple.
And it's not so much that it's insurmountable, but it
requires more planning than otherwise. There's a few items that
(26:26):
I go through in my mind. One a significant age
difference between spouses, and really significant can be anything over
three year age difference, So I know that's not that
big a gap, but when you have a three plus
year age difference, you're talking about all sorts of things
like social security planning, medicare planning. That requires a lot
of thinking. The other one would be a big division
(26:48):
of assets or a big weighting of assets or income.
For one sport spouse versus the other. So one person
was a stay at home parent all their career, the
other one saved all the money into the four oh
one k. That is going to require a little bit
of more planning than say, you know, people who have
a sixty to forty split between assets, or say one
(27:08):
spouse has a large pension and the other one is
just living off of social Security. Again, these are the
items that you have to think about and really do
some extra planning if you fall into one of those buckets.
In either case, you can get your free copy of
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(27:30):
we just went through now, and.
Speaker 4 (27:32):
Plus a lot more.
Speaker 5 (27:34):
You can request your copy also by going to Armstrong
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three nine three four zero zero one.
Speaker 1 (27:42):
The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
Armstrong Guide a specific financial, legal or tax advice. Consult
your own financial, tax into state planning advisors before making
any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
advisory services.
Speaker 2 (27:57):
Mike, I want to talk about this piece from Wall
Street Journal. It will soon be curtains for the movie theater,
and it's kind of interesting to me in that the
subhetter is older generations can't be bothered to go when
younger people want to stream their films.
Speaker 3 (28:12):
And I think that the.
Speaker 2 (28:16):
Big thing is it very well could be possible that
the movie theater as a mass market vehicle for entertainment
might just have like one hundred year shelf life. It's
not to say that you won't continue to have movie
theaters exist in some form, but people today just have
more choices as to how they can access their entertainment
(28:38):
than ever before, and they're controlling that access with more
granularity as well as far as you know what they
do throughout any part.
Speaker 3 (28:47):
Of the day.
Speaker 5 (28:48):
And I think Jerry Seinfeld put it pretty well here
right his quote on this in GQ. Film doesn't occupy
the pinnacle in the social cultural hierarchy that it did
for most of our life. When a movie came out,
if it was good, we all went to see it,
We all discussed it, we quoted lines and scenes we
liked now we're.
Speaker 4 (29:06):
Walking through a fire hose of water, just trying to see.
Speaker 5 (29:10):
And I don't know if the fire hose of water
is the perfect analogy, but one hundred percent different than
what it was like growing up when a big movie
hit the screens, right, Like, we just do not socialize
in the same way over these things that we did previously,
and that is a big problem for theaters.
Speaker 3 (29:30):
I disagree, and I over movies.
Speaker 2 (29:34):
Yes, I'm not going to say I'm smarter than Jerry
Seinfeld about media because he's smarter and he'll bury me
with like some kind of cutting quote if he ever
listened to our show, which I'm sure he doesn't, but
maybe he does. Jerry, if you're listening, love your work.
Here's the thing. When the right movies come along, they
still become cultural touchstones.
Speaker 3 (29:56):
Well, just in the last few years, Top Gun Maverick
back in twenty.
Speaker 2 (30:01):
Everyone was talking about it, Barbenheimer in twenty three and
twenty four, I'm sorry, in twenty three everyone was talking
about both of those movies.
Speaker 3 (30:11):
And the right movie.
Speaker 2 (30:13):
I also believe can catapult someone to start him in
a way that no other medium still does. You know, Mike,
can you name me one person who achieves like that
true Like like, when's the last person who had true
achieved that true a list status like that that celebrity
that just everyone knows through a streaming platform or TV.
Speaker 4 (30:34):
Show, Tina Fey. I think there are plenty of Tina.
Speaker 2 (30:39):
Fe is not no way like I'm talking. I'm talking
like Tom Cruise level. I'm talking like like that level.
You can't get there, Tina Faye.
Speaker 1 (30:52):
What the health?
Speaker 3 (30:54):
You know it's on Saturday Ight Live.
Speaker 2 (30:56):
You know what, who's the last person who like came
through a streaming platform and became that big or Again,
this is just kind of like everything is more disjointed
in all these other places. There are podcast stars, but
like I don't know who half these people are, what
they look like. But just as an example, top Gun Maverick,
if I say the name Glenn Powell, now everyone knows
(31:19):
that kind of catapulted him on the rise that he's
been on the last few years.
Speaker 3 (31:22):
Now.
Speaker 4 (31:23):
Yeah, I don't know, Chuck, that it's necessary.
Speaker 5 (31:25):
Like I hear you that there were some big movies
over the last few years, but that is not going
to save movie theaters.
Speaker 2 (31:31):
I'm not saying it will save movie theaters like My
point is not that movie theaters can be saved. My
point is that movies, specifically ones that are able to
be shown in theaters, have a way of catapulting someone
and an idea into the national consciousness in a way
that no other medium still has been able to figure out.
Speaker 7 (31:52):
I'll give you one. What do you got Millie Bobby Brown?
Speaker 3 (31:56):
I don't know who that is?
Speaker 7 (31:57):
Yes, you do Stranger Things?
Speaker 3 (32:00):
Is she that big?
Speaker 7 (32:01):
She's pretty huge right now?
Speaker 3 (32:03):
Yeah, I mean like I don't know, yeah, no, she
I think yeah.
Speaker 7 (32:07):
I think that's a great example of a Netflix star
who is just huge.
Speaker 4 (32:11):
Now I'm gonna diverge on this.
Speaker 5 (32:13):
I do not think that the movie is the necessity
to catapult people's careers anymore.
Speaker 4 (32:19):
I think it used to be, and I don't.
Speaker 5 (32:22):
I don't think it, but maybe it never did though,
Like no, Jerry, Jerry Seinfeld like, how can you how
can you look at somebody like that?
Speaker 2 (32:31):
Garry Seinfeld is like, there's a different level of stardom
that you can get to, Like Jerry, you know, I'm
dead serious on this. When we're talking about like that elite,
elite level that you can reach through movies. I don't
think any other medium gets you there. It's it's kind
(32:53):
of like, if you're comparing Tom Brady and Peyton Manning
in pure stuff, they might be similar. Tom Brady reached
a level of global stardom that Peyton Manning never did
and never will.
Speaker 3 (33:08):
The Peyton's pretty big.
Speaker 2 (33:11):
Peyton's not Tom Brady. You could there were times when
you could not escape Tom Brady. You've never been able
to not escape Peyton Manning. Ivey's watched TV and all
the commercials he's on. Okay, he's doing commercials. Everyone does
commercials now. This is another thing that's interesting to me.
It used to be celebrities only did commercials outside the
United States.
Speaker 3 (33:32):
Now they do them everywhere.
Speaker 2 (33:33):
That's something that is different that is interesting to me,
Like you never used to see celebrities doing commercials and
now it's the norm.
Speaker 3 (33:41):
That's another kind of interesting shift. But in any case,
let's take a break on this and when we return,
Stack Roulette.
Speaker 1 (33:49):
The Financial Exchange streams live on YouTube. Subscribe to our
page and stay up to date on breaking business news
all morning long. He's the Financial Exchange Radio Network. The
Financial Exchange is now available every day from eleven to noon.
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(34:11):
breaking business news. Every day, The Financial Exchange is life
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Speaker 7 (34:23):
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by the US Virgin Islands Department of Tourism. There's still
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Speaker 3 (34:59):
Fight.
Speaker 2 (34:59):
Do you mind if I start off tech us off Chuck.
I want to start this piece of The New York Times.
It's titled Meta's New Ai superstars are chafing against the
rest of the company, And quite honestly, most of this
article I don't really find that interesting. It's okay, like,
there's a bunch of new people in town trying to,
you know, help Meta build AI, and they're fighting with
the old guard about you know, what their.
Speaker 3 (35:20):
Resources should be used.
Speaker 2 (35:21):
For sure, that happens at every big company, especially when
you pay like billions of dollars to bring in talent.
Speaker 3 (35:26):
Okay, fine, like there's nothing that interesting to me there.
Speaker 2 (35:29):
But I did find something interesting about two thirds of
the way through the piece, I will quote the New
York Times. Mister Zuckerberg and mister Wang then went on
a recruiting blitz for the top AI researchers, offering pay
packages worth hundreds of millions. Mark Chen, open AI's chief
research officer, said, mister Zuckerberg has gone as far as
(35:50):
delivering homemade soup to the doorsteps of some open ai
employees to persuade them to join his company. So what
I find interesting here is a like, I wonder has
duck soup? Is like, you know what what kind of
soup we see? You know, a chicken noodle?
Speaker 1 (36:06):
Guy?
Speaker 3 (36:06):
Was he broccoli? Cheddar? Was the chili? Was it the chowder?
Speaker 2 (36:09):
Like one question, but the other piece that I find
interesting just in the context of all this AI bologney.
So I'm just I'm getting there, man, I'm getting there.
Despite the fact that we think AI is going to
change the world by like getting rid of humans, the
pitch to try to get someone to come to your company.
Speaker 4 (36:31):
Is a distinctly human activities.
Speaker 2 (36:32):
Is trying to bring them soup in person? Like isn't
that just doesn't that sum up everything here? Like, yes,
we're trying to build tools to replace people because we
don't like people.
Speaker 3 (36:47):
But here's some soup that I made. Yeah, maybe it's.
Speaker 5 (36:50):
Pretty uniquely dystopian. I want to talk about houses. We
haven't checked in on this stat in a little while.
The total listing count in the United States as of October,
which is the most recent data that I can find,
hit one point one million. We are closer than we
have been since COVID to a more normalized housing market.
That listing count is now ninety one percent of where
(37:13):
we were in October of twenty nineteen, so single families
only four percent below, right, So we are pretty darn close.
In spite of that, the sales price data that I
have goes as far as Q two of twenty twenty five,
so we're a little bit far behind on this one.
But the listing, sorry, the median sales price for houses
sold in the United States are still twenty seven point
(37:36):
four percent higher than.
Speaker 4 (37:38):
Where we were in Q two of twenty nineteen.
Speaker 5 (37:40):
So I know that everyone listening has experienced this directly
and is kind of snickering, like, yeah, no kidding, Mike,
But that is, you know, pretty compelling case of supply
and demand.
Speaker 4 (37:53):
Here.
Speaker 5 (37:53):
Supply is nearly back to where we were in twenty nineteen,
prices staying considerably higher than where they were back in
twenty nineteen, Yeah, and but falling falling consistently since Q
four of twenty twenty two.
Speaker 2 (38:09):
I'll point down it's it's going to be a one
to three year adjustment period for home prices, and on
the back end of that, we will feel that affordability
is back into a more normal range that we are
used to relative to our incomes. But it's going to
take some time to get there, and there's going to
be some pain in the housing sector along the way. Unfortunately.
(38:30):
That's kind of what it looks like let's take a
quick break for the rest of the day. We're gonna
finish the week up tomorrow. We'll finish it strong. We've
got Broadcom earnings tonight, so I'm sure we'll be covering
those tomorrow, given how big the company is. Market's still
mixed now up one percent, SMP down and a half,
NASDAC down one and a quarter.
Speaker 3 (38:50):
We'll see it tomorrow on the Financial Exchange.
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