September 17, 2025 • 38 mins
Chuck Zodda and Paul Lane discuss China banning tech companies from buying Nvidia's AI chips. AI is going to consumer a lot of energy. Can it help us save energy? US mortgage rates fall to 2024 levels, fueling refinancing surge. LimeWire is back and buying the Fyre Festival.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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(01:02):
This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck Zada and Paul.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
Lane, Chuck, Paul, and Tucker with you here on a
FED day at two pm Eastern in this afternoon, the
Federal Reserve is going to release its statement on monetary policy.
It is widely expected that the FED is going to
cut interest rates by a quarter percent. There is the
(01:27):
possibility that we see a half percentage point cut in
the Fed funds rate, but by and large that quarter
percent change is what is being priced into markets right now. Also,
we're going to be getting a summary of economic projections.
This is where the FED publishes in writing what they
think inflation, economic growth, unemployment, and the Fed funds rate
(01:50):
are going to be at the end of this year,
next year, twenty twenty seven, and long run projections there
and so we can get a sense of their thinking
as to how these things may evolve over the next
year or two and what their policy may be during
that time. Also, if you're interested in the Fed drama,
you got Steven Miron with his first ever appearance at
(02:16):
the FED for a FED meeting, and Lisa Cook is
gonna be there as well, after her appeals were successful
in allowing her to be at this meeting. So if
you want you know the reality TV aspect of it,
and the most dramatic season of the FED ever, then yeah,
(02:38):
you've got that today. The thing that quite honestly matters
more to me is, hey, what are they actually going
to do from a policy perspective, because that is what
actually impacts all of us on a daily basis. But
you got to acknowledge the drama that's going to be there,
because quite honestly, it is the most dramatic FED meeting ever,
even though the policy outcome is not likely to be
(03:00):
as dramatic though, but we do anticipate a rate cut there,
so that is going to be coming up at.
Speaker 3 (03:06):
Two pm Eastern in just a little bit.
Speaker 2 (03:11):
We turn our attention now just because again there's not
much else to say on that they haven't done anything yet,
And don't worry, we'll recap it all tomorrow for a
ton of time. We'll probably spend most of if not all,
of the show talking about the FED, because I do
think there's gonna be a lot to chew on there.
But we turn now to a topic where I couldn't
(03:34):
be happy to take this victory lap. I could be
because honestly, I'm not sure this is like a great
thing for the US, but.
Speaker 4 (03:39):
No, it's not. But great thing for the financial exchange
and chucks out.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
Gosh, I love to take victory laps on stuff like this,
So over the summer I speculated a couple of different
times that hey, even if the Trump administration approves the
export of Nvidia to chips to China, it's not a
given that China wouldness necessarily want to resume them. I
actually had Tucker poll actually Ben pulled the audio of
(04:06):
the show, and so let's play it right now, just
to hear what we were talking about a little while ago.
The other piece to me, that's interesting, and I said
this a few weeks ago when in Video got the
approval to send the H twenty chips over to China.
(04:28):
Wouldn't the most interesting thing be if China all of
a sudden just said, eh, we're not interested anymore. And
I just think it would be very interesting if China,
at this point in time, as they're going through these negotiations,
might say, you know what, we can figure out ways
to develop AI in the short term without in Video chips.
(04:50):
But gosh, it would sure hurt the US economy or
the US stock market if we just decided not to
buy them right now. So that's what I said on
August eleven, So that was five and a half weeks ago,
somewhere in that ballpark. And today, according to a report
from The Financial Times, China's internet regulator has banned the
(05:11):
country's biggest technology companies from buying in Vidia's artificial intelligence chips.
This is, you know, official banning today, not you know, hey,
the last couple weeks of well, we might dissuade you
from doing so.
Speaker 3 (05:22):
This is no.
Speaker 2 (05:24):
We are going to ban Chinese domestic large companies from
buying these Nvidia chips and less. Do you think that
this is something that seems like it's gonna just be
easily negotiated away? In Vidio CEO Jensen Huang was interviewed,
or rather gave a comment at least to the Financial
Times on this, and he said, we can only be
(05:49):
of service in a market if a country wants us
to be. We've probably contributed more to the China market
than most countries have, and I'm disappointed with what I see.
But they have larger agendas to work out between China
and the unit it states, and I'm understanding of that.
So that doesn't really sound like a person who thinks
that this is just going to be reversed in a
couple of weeks. That sounds like someone who's kind.
Speaker 3 (06:08):
Of like.
Speaker 2 (06:12):
I just lost It's like it's I. That's someone who
just says says like, I've spent the past six months
trying to make so much. I've been going back and
forth between the US and China. I've been at the
White House, you know, a half dozen times. I've got
the people I need on board with this, and you're
(06:33):
just gonna say no. And like it's the first time
I've ever heard him sound a little dejected about anything. Yeah,
you know, So I think that what we're you know,
the inference that you can make from this is China
thinks that it can figure out the chip side well enough.
(06:53):
It might not be as well as using the Nvidio chips,
but they think they have enough that they can do
with domestically sourced chips to be able to produce what
they need. There the obvious question that I have next,
And Tucker, I'm gonna write this down somewhere just so
we have it marked down, because Ben spent like an
(07:14):
hour looking for that quote just so that we could
find it to talk about it. The obvious question that
I have next, the US doesn't in Nvidia doesn't just
want to sell chips to US companies. I don't think
you have it like a real convincing case that I
don't think you have a convincing case that Microsoft is
going to all of a sudden be like, hey, these
(07:35):
domestically made China chips, do you think we should go
get some of the I don't get the sense that
that's going to happen.
Speaker 4 (07:42):
But European South America flooding with weak, cheaper chips.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
Europe, I think it'll actually be strong enough to fend
this off, just because they did it with Huawei a
few years back, even though they let Chinese EV manufacturers
come in and just run rough shot.
Speaker 3 (07:55):
Over their auto industry.
Speaker 2 (07:56):
Yep, for whatever reason, they actually took a stand on telecom.
It's good for them, Like I appreciate them doing so.
But the question that I do have is, hey, over
the course of the spring, there was the big presidential
trip through the Middle East where a bunch of Middle
Eastern countries committed to buying in video chips as well.
(08:20):
Does China come in and say, hey, you know what,
we're the biggest buyer of your oil at this point. Anyways, Sure,
I know that you want, you know, cruise missiles from raytheon.
But how about you take some of the stuff that
we're making on the defense side and we'll sell you
these chips at a big discount to in Vidia. It's
(08:42):
a win win for you. That's the That's the next
thing that I look at, because it's clear to me
that China is looking at It's clear to me that
China's looking at in Vidia and purchases by anyone from
them as a way to make the United States pay
(09:04):
economically without having to do anything from a terror for
trade perspective directly with US.
Speaker 4 (09:11):
This is the demarcation of a AI battle between China
and the US. This is the official declaration. You could
have speculated to this the last three to six months
with some of the back and forth, but I think
after not to say this was the reason behind it,
but some of Besson's comments, Treasure Secretary Besson just claiming
how weak the technology was of the H twenty chips,
(09:33):
it seemed to potentially have irged China a bit. And
ultimately I'm not saying that that was the main catalyst
for this, but this had been brewing for a while
that since we saw the unveiling of Deep Seek and
just the way that China has been aggressively going after AI,
they are clearly going to make this a significant priority.
In fact, they wanted to triple the country's output of
(09:55):
AI processors this year. So this is a big item
on their agenda. And you better believe, like you mentioned,
it's easy to make the next jump to from a
conclusion standpoint, why wouldn't they flood the global market with
as many as these chips as they can.
Speaker 3 (10:09):
It's what China does.
Speaker 4 (10:11):
Yeah, exactly, look at the EV market you mentioned it before.
It's going to be the same sort of thing. And
that's where the competition begins. It continues. I guess it's
been a competition before. This is when on the domestic
side of things, we got to ramp up and really
continue to compete to be the most sophisticating, the best
chips on the market.
Speaker 2 (10:32):
Now I can also make a convincing case that from
a national security perspective, maybe you shouldn't be supplying China
with these chips anyways, So this might end up being
a blessing in disguise On that side, even though it's
not the best thing economically for in video.
Speaker 3 (10:49):
Yeah, it's a.
Speaker 4 (10:50):
Really hard You could go side by side and arget
either way. If you want to argue geess, we should
have a footprint there and have them reliant on our technology,
because then we're controlling the game by buying the I'm
buying all our H twenty chips. It's better to be
have them with us. But then you could also make
the counter argument, jeez, perhaps it's not best to ship
them to China. Anyway, It's kind of you could argue
(11:12):
it either way, but ultimately we're going to get our
result is just we're not going to have chips that
are exported there.
Speaker 2 (11:19):
To take a quick break, and when we return, let's
do a little bit of trivia and then we'll talk
about the I want to talk more about the electricity
demands of all this AI data center construction, because they
are enormous, and we do have a piece from the
Wall Street Journal that's trying to make the case, hey,
AI can actually help us consume less energy. We'll talk
(11:42):
about whether that's realistic or just a bunch of poppycock.
Speaker 1 (11:45):
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Speaker 5 (12:26):
All right, time for trivia here on the Financial Exchange.
And on this day in twenty nineteen, San Francisco Giants
outfielder Mike Yastremsky hit a home run in his first
game at Boston's Fenway Park, the longtime home field of
his grandfather, Carl Yustremsky. Yeaz so trivia question today, how
many seasons did Yazz play for the Boston Red Sox?
(12:48):
And that'll be Carl Yastremsky. How many seasons did Yazz
play for the Boston Red Sox. That's our trivia question today.
Be the fifth person today to text us at six
seven three six two thirteen eighty five with the correct answer,
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the fifth correct response to text us to the number
(13:10):
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Exchange Show dot com.
Speaker 2 (13:19):
Piece in the Wall Street Journal, AI is going to
consume a lot of energy. It can also help us
consume less. Discuss chuck this this piece. This is ridiculous.
Speaker 4 (13:32):
I get what they're trying to go for here, but
I just am not buying the reason for it. So
basically what's laid on this Wall Street Journal piece is
that with the use of AI, it will allow for
companies to be more efficient and utilize this technology to
cut down on time sitting in traffic, to improve their
(13:52):
freight businesses, to improve marine freight, all these different areas
where a lot of gas and fuel is burned, increasing
harbon emissions. And I just the reason I think it's
absolutely preposterous is we've talked about the demand that this
is going to create on the grid. It is going
to be tremendous, and we've already seen electricity prices ticking
up because of some of this demand, and it's probably
(14:13):
only going to compound and get worse because there's a
lot of demand out there for these data centers. To
think over the last ten or fifteen years, that companies
haven't been using this type of technology to optimize their
roots to track performance of their vehicles is just ludicrous.
Like this, this isn't new. Just because you call something
AI doesn't mean that Uber Freight or Amazon or many
(14:37):
of these other companies over the last decade haven't been
using technology to analyze their cost structure as much as
possible in their trucks. So that is my rent.
Speaker 3 (14:46):
Yeah, a couple different things on this.
Speaker 2 (14:48):
The first is the AI technology that we've largely been
talking about for the last three years is known as
LM's large Language models, which are basically, hey, here, there's
trillions of different, you know, combinations of words that have
been used historically. I'm gonna ask you a question and
based on like the data set that I trained you
(15:08):
on all those different words, you're gonna spit something back
to me. The really interesting thing the way that llllms
learn how do we use what words go in certain
places is basically how your kids do it's kind of cool.
Like you, when you're you're teaching like a two year
old how to speak, you don't say, well, here's what
the word the means. It's no, they like repeat you
and learning the context of different phrases, and they pick
(15:29):
it up as they go. Llllms are kind of the
same thing. It's just that instead of training them, you know,
through a few words, they pick up every you know,
week or month.
Speaker 3 (15:37):
At first.
Speaker 2 (15:38):
Hey, here's like five trillion words, like go figure out
how to deal with this the stuff that we're talking
about here, Like they're giving an example of airlines are
using AI to help with dynamic route planning by understanding
like where the wind's blowing. And that's called machine learning.
And that's stuff that's been going on for ten fifteen
years now. I can you know, I've had conversation with
(16:00):
like friends of mine who have been doing this literally
since you know, twenty thirteen, twenty twelve, somewhere in that ballpark.
So the stuff that we're talking about now with large
language models, that's the stuff that's causing the real ramp
up in data center building.
Speaker 3 (16:18):
It's not United saying well.
Speaker 2 (16:21):
We want to know which way the wind's blowing like no, Like,
there's a reason why United is not building their own
data centers. It's because they just don't need that much
compute capacity to figure that out. You do need a
bunch of compute capacity when you know, idiots like me
are throwing stuff in, like hey, give me four good
chicken recipes to make if I have these things in
the fridge, Like okay, yeah, you need a bunch of
(16:44):
compute capacity in order to figure that stuff out when
you know hundreds of millions of people are starting to
use this stuff. The other piece, I'm gonna, you know,
just do like a comparison here, man, Americans wasted three
point three billion dollars three point three billion gallons of
gasoline and diesel fuel in twenty twenty two, over two
(17:06):
hundred and fifteen thousand barrels a day. So here's the thing.
About two hundred and fifteen thousand barrels a day. I'm
not saying it's not consequential, But what I am saying
is the United States in any given day uses like
eighteen to nineteen million barrels a day somewhere in that ballpark.
So two hundred and fifteen thousand barrels a day of
gas wasted sitting in traffic is like one percent of
(17:28):
our total Right now, the projections for AI electricity usage,
for data center electricity usage is that it's gonna go
from being about four percent of our electricity usage last
year to twelve percent in twenty twenty eight. So you're
telling me if AI and by the way, it's not
(17:49):
these large language models won't do it. But hey, if
AI can somehow get rid of all traffic, let me
repeat how ridiculous that is. If AI can somehow get
rid of all traffic, it can save us about one
percent of our daily gas usage.
Speaker 3 (18:09):
But the electricity usage by.
Speaker 2 (18:11):
The AI is going to go from four percent to
twelve percent. Something's not mathing in the math, Paul. And
so this even is before you get to the point that, Hey, generally,
when you make it so that you have less demand
for something and thus the cost of it goes down,
you get into Javon's paradox, which is, hey, is you
(18:34):
make something cheaper, people buy more of it, and so
you don't actually get these savings that you do, most
notably in things like energy. When energy becomes cheaper, people
don't say, well, I'm gonna use less of it. They say, no,
I'm gonna use more. I have all this money I saved,
I can I can. You know I need more energy
now in order to do more stuff.
Speaker 4 (18:54):
I just can't get over. It's, you know, reitering points
that have been going on for decades plus in these businesses.
These tactics have been used. You have to believe Amazon
and all these sophistic companies, they're always looking at their
bottom line to cut their expenses and how they can
increase profitabilities. So the fact that they have, however, many
hundreds of thousands of trucks driving around a daily basis
(19:14):
that they're not studying that, you're out of your mind.
If they haven't been, they don't think they haven't been
doing this.
Speaker 2 (19:19):
They're that suddenly gonna be like, hey, hey, chat GPT,
can you tell me which way the wind's blowing? Yes,
of course I can. Where would you like to go?
Jeff quick break. When we come back, we'll get the
trivia answer next.
Speaker 1 (19:39):
Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio. Every day,
it's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Time Now for Wall Street. Watch a complete look at
what's moving markets so far today right here on the
Financial Exchange Radio network.
Speaker 5 (19:58):
The markets are mixed territory. The head of the expected
quarter percent interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve at
the conclusion of their meeting at two o'clock. BET Chairman
Jerome poul will speak further about the Central Banks decision
during a press conference.
Speaker 3 (20:12):
At two thirty.
Speaker 5 (20:13):
Right now, the Dow is up by nearly seven tenths
of one percent or three hundred and four points higher.
SMP five hundred is down about a tenth of percent,
NASDAC down about half a percent or one hundred and
fourteen points lower. Russell two thousand now up over one
percent on the day, Tenure Treasure reeled is mostly unchanged
(20:34):
and is now at four point zero three five percent,
and crude oil down six tenths of one percent, trading
right around sixty four dollars barrel. Some more news as
it relates to in Nvidia and China this morning. According
to The Financial Times, China's internet regulator has banned the
country's largest tech firms from buying in Vidia's AI chips,
(20:55):
increasing China's efforts to lift its domestic industry and compete
with the United States. And video stock is down nearly
three percent on that news. Meanwhile, Lift shares are soaring
twelve percent, falling news that Weimo has partnered with Lyft
for the first time in a commercial deal to enter
(21:16):
Nashville next year. Elsewhere, General Mills posted mixed quarterly results
where it's earnings beat expectations but its organic sales growth
was about in line with expectations. Shares in the food
producer are down about one percent. Workday stock is jumping
eight percent after activist investor Elliott Management disclosed a two
(21:37):
billion dollar stake in the human resources software provider, and
Bernstein upgraded Zillo to outperform from market perform, where the
firm said it has been warming up to Zillo's fundamental
story inside of the company's a recent execution on revenue
growth as a factor. Zillo shares are up over three percent.
I'm Tucker Silva and that is Wall Street Watch and
(21:59):
in THEBS segment, we asked you the trivia question how
many seasons did Carl Ustremsky play for the Boston Red Sox.
That would be twenty three seasons. Bill from Medford, Mass
is our winner today, taking home a Financial Exchange Show
T shirt. Congrats to Bill and we play trivia every
day here in the Financial Exchange See complete contest rules
(22:22):
at Financial Exchange show dot com.
Speaker 2 (22:24):
US mortgage rates fall to twenty twenty four levels, fueling
refinancing surge. So mortgages did see a decline in rates
over the last three to six weeks, and so that
has mortgage rates now again in the low sixes for
thirty year fixed rate mortgages and in the high fives
(22:49):
for adjustable rate ones. Your thoughts, Paul on you know
kind of what we're gonna see as a result of this.
Speaker 4 (22:56):
I don't necessarily know that it's going to jolt the
the housing market at spend a really week last couple
of years for the housing market, but you are approaching
at least that psychological hurdle of being below six percent
and showing that five percent on there. Does that potentially
allow for more buyers to have the confidence to go
ahead and move forward with purchases. Perhaps, But I still
(23:20):
think that there are bigger systematic issues with the housing
market in general that unfortunately, you know, going from six'
seven to six point one, FIVE i don't know if
that's enough to do.
Speaker 2 (23:30):
It when you talk about those bigger systemic, issues are
you talking what we're seeing as far as insurance, rates
property taxes and those kinds of things are something.
Speaker 4 (23:37):
Else, yeah basically just how we've had increased inventory throughout the,
country which is a positive obviously for buyers out, there
but just hasn't been the. Demand and like you alluded
to the areas that we're seeing the increased, Inventory florida's
one to pick. On there just isn't the demand because
of those home, rage insurance costs and other factors. There
(23:58):
and then in just in general from a pricing, standpoint
affordability has has been an issue over the last several,
years AND i just don't see either of those things changing,
necessarily particularly in The North Seas northeast. HERE i don't
think you're gonna get enough inventory to bring down prices
so substantially that it makes more.
Speaker 2 (24:16):
Buyers jump back, In, Tucker Do paul AND i have
an outstanding bet on uh more skids?
Speaker 3 (24:20):
Rates?
Speaker 4 (24:21):
Yes we.
Speaker 3 (24:21):
Do uh, yeah hold, ON i thought we. DID i
can't remember what the context, was or.
Speaker 4 (24:27):
You, know a range of thirty year fixed mortgages for
twenty twenty.
Speaker 3 (24:30):
Five paul's plugged into. This, yeah, well because we covered,
trouble we covered it a week or two. Ago paul
knows he's, winning doesn't.
Speaker 4 (24:36):
He yesh, y we covered it a week or two,
Ago mike AND.
Speaker 5 (24:39):
I so, Yeah paul had a low fixed at five
point eight five high with seven point, one And chuck
had a low of five point two high of seven point, eight.
Speaker 4 (24:49):
And mike was in there.
Speaker 5 (24:50):
Too mike doesn't.
Speaker 3 (24:50):
Matter so what does this? Mean how DO i?
Speaker 2 (24:52):
Win it's it's probably whoever's closest, on like when you
take the high water mark and and combine.
Speaker 3 (25:00):
Them, Right So I'm i'm losing right, now, Correct.
Speaker 5 (25:05):
Yeah Because paul seemed very happy to be talking about.
Speaker 2 (25:09):
This all, Right, well given the things for, moving given
the rates are moving down right, Now, JAY i really
need a little help this uh this.
Speaker 3 (25:15):
Afternoon then then to get, that, UH i need five to.
Speaker 4 (25:18):
TWO i need to tie things. Up after My nvidia
earnings prediction moving markets more than, that that was a big.
Speaker 3 (25:24):
One that was a big win for.
Speaker 2 (25:26):
Me SO i could use a w further proof that IN,
uh when it comes to, markets there's no one that
has a one track.
Speaker 3 (25:34):
Record.
Speaker 2 (25:35):
Folks if you have questions about what's going on in
the economy right, now whether it's, housing whether it's the,
markets anything, else the labor, market what's going on. There
Armstrong Advisory group is going to be hosting two financial
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Speaker 1 (26:45):
Com the proceeding was paid for By Armstrong Advisory, group
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Any armstrong guide a specific, financial, legal or tax advice
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making any investment. Decisions armstrong may contact offer investment advisory.
Services why is.
Speaker 3 (27:03):
The tea silent in?
Speaker 4 (27:04):
MORTGAGE i have no, idea BUT i know you're here
dying to get to.
Speaker 1 (27:09):
THIS i don't. Know It's.
Speaker 2 (27:12):
French mortgage Is. French the origin Is. French, yeah it
means In. FRENCH i believe it's Old. FRENCH i think
it comes from the term dead pledge and whatever it
means In, french or however that is spelled in Old.
Speaker 4 (27:26):
French thank, You Ken.
Speaker 2 (27:27):
Jennings and so the more you, know that's why mortgage
has A. T but no one says mortgage except for.
Speaker 3 (27:36):
Us you us.
Speaker 2 (27:40):
Why you should own some? Gold piece from The Wall Street.
Journal so two things can be. True the first is
that as a diversifier in a, portfolio there's a case
to be made for gold and or other precious metals
as a. Portion there's also a case to be made
(28:02):
that if all you own is, gold it's not really
a great, strategy since gold produces no, income no economic,
value nor does it do anything to improve your. Life
and it's also probably true that if you're taking your
tips on when to buy gold from The Wall Street,
journal that's probably not the best time to be doing,
(28:23):
so because, well they're probably talking about it because it's
done well, recently and gold tends to do well during
very short periods of time and then go through periods
of intense boredom for longer.
Speaker 4 (28:32):
Stretches, yes they do to be fairer to The Wall
Street journal writer, here he does mention that it's doubled
in the last few, Years so, Yeah.
Speaker 3 (28:40):
Gregori does a great job for.
Speaker 2 (28:41):
THEM i think the headline writer is the person WHO
i have a bigger problem with who they don't tell
you who writes the, headline, Right, yeah you know they
don't tell you that person's name.
Speaker 4 (28:48):
Exactly but that's always been the general philosophy with the
use of gold within a portfolio is it's A it's
not correlated to what goes on in the stock, Market
so having smaller percentage in it can help in times
of you, know strife with the stock. Market but it
is a case that is emphasized more when gold is
(29:11):
doing well the last ten, years prior to the couple
that we've had over the last Few if you look
at THE s AND p five hundred returns to. Gold
it was an absolute bludgeoning over that period of. Time
so it's something that gets emphasized when things are a
little sunnier on the gold.
Speaker 2 (29:27):
Front so in any, case, look gold IS i always
come back to the fact investors love to treat gold
the way they should treat. Stocks investors hold gold and they're, like,
Oh i'm gonna own this gold, forever and generally it
kind of keeps up with inflation but doesn't do like
(29:47):
too much more than that because it doesn't earn. Anything
and with, stocks people want to be, Like, Ooh i'm
going to be in out And i'm gonna be a
super trade and look at. ME i can go in
and out and buy low and sell. High, NOPE i
didn't do that.
Speaker 3 (30:00):
There. Sorry so.
Speaker 2 (30:03):
Ultimately i'm not saying that LIKE i have any idea
exactly when to buy or sell gold, either but it
typically makes its money in short like one or two year,
stretches and then a lot of times either goes sideways
for a decade or might even lose like fifty percent
in a decade like the twenty. Tens so, generally if
you will get the historical track, record gold is great
(30:27):
during those crisis, periods but doesn't really do anything else,
otherwise whereas stocks tend to do a lot else otherwise
and obviously struggle in those short crisis. Periods this is
why in a diversified portfolio with different kinds of assets and,
things gold can help to provide some. Smoothing but you,
know it's it's everything in, balance everything you know in,
(30:49):
MODERATION i guess is the point THAT i try to
make on this. Stuff quick break here and when we come,
back let's do a little bit of stack.
Speaker 1 (30:56):
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Speaker 3 (32:07):
Today, paul what do you got for?
Speaker 4 (32:09):
Me for Stack, Roulette LimeWire has agreed to acquire Fire.
Festival what could possibly go? Wrong? So, LimeWire for those who,
forget was a company that you were able to download
files a lot of it was similar To napster music
files and and other video files out there that got
(32:32):
shut down by court ruling in twenty. Ten but for
many of us who grew up late nineties early two,
thousands it was for those people who did down an
easy way to download a lot of free, music but obviously.
Speaker 3 (32:43):
Chance of downloading a virus.
Speaker 4 (32:45):
Exactly it was a, difficult difficult dance to. Balance firefests
for those who also may forget was subject of a
popular documentary done By netflix a couple years, back Where
billy McFarland had put together this fancy festival that promised
(33:06):
models and musical stars and where did they do it
was The bahamas that They they did it down in The.
Bahamas he had put together these tremendous hype videos with
all these celebrities and, influencers and then people spent thousands
of dollars to go down to The, bahamas only to
find out there was no, food no, Water.
Speaker 2 (33:24):
No you got A fema tent and a piece of
bread With american cheese next to.
Speaker 4 (33:30):
It it was just an absolute. Calamity he was sentenced
to six years in, prison convicted of. Fraud so now
you Have LimeWire Acquiring Fire festival's. Brands So LimeWire was
rebranded in twenty twenty two by Some austrian brothers that
now apparently DOES nft. Services And i'm confused as to
(33:53):
what this really means other than just two nostalgic names
of companies gone wrong or events gone wrong over the
last ten t fifteen. Years but it's in the. News
so it.
Speaker 2 (34:03):
Feels like you know Those russian nesting dolls where you pull,
one you open one, up and there's another, inside and
then there's another inside and. Another it feels like that's
what we're like doing here when it comes to just
like questionable businesses with you, know not the best history
and the potential for. Fraud, definitely it's, like, hey how
(34:27):
do you make fire festival? Better mix it with? Crypto
like it just it doesn't feel? Great And, tucker wasn't
it correct me If i'm? Wrong Didn't billy McFarlane say
that they were listing the Fire festival brand for sale On?
Speaker 3 (34:45):
eBay wasn't it?
Speaker 4 (34:46):
Such this is the?
Speaker 3 (34:47):
Sale?
Speaker 2 (34:48):
Right but like so why did why Did limeweer have
to announce? This couldn't you just go on The eBay
listing and see who?
Speaker 4 (34:54):
Won of course they want to announce, it SO i
would talk about limemark because when's the last time you
talked About.
Speaker 3 (34:58):
Limemar it's, true it's it's been a.
Speaker 4 (35:00):
Minute it's been a long.
Speaker 2 (35:01):
Time, yeah, yeah it's uh. Again i'll be, honest didn't
even know they still. Existed BUT i guess.
Speaker 4 (35:09):
We won't keep you updated on this endeavor wherever it.
Speaker 3 (35:12):
Goes if it goes, wrong we. Will, yeah that's. True
that that's.
Speaker 2 (35:15):
Wrong we will if it goes. Well, no, Okay like,
great you had a concert in The. Bahamas, fine Like,
YAHOO i didn't. Go i'm want to talk a little
bit about this study from ePower that the median emergency
savings For americans is five hundred. DOLLARS a third Of
americans don't have an emergency savings, fund and twenty nine
percent say they can't afford an unexpected expense over four hundred.
(35:40):
DOLLARS a couple things THAT i take away from. This
it's actually better THAN i thought it would. Be, really
why if if we're saying that three out of Four,
americans there's seven out of Ten americans can figure out
how to come up with four hundred dollars on short,
NOTICE i think that's pretty good given how many people
(36:03):
are really, struggling you, know or saying that they're struggling
economically right. NOW i think it's encouraging to me that
fewer than thirty percent of people have trouble coming up with.
Speaker 4 (36:15):
That one in three have no emergency fund, savings thirty
percent say they can't Afford.
Speaker 2 (36:20):
I'm guessing there's a few percentages that have like higher
income but no emergency, fund, okay and it's just like
all cut spending on something. Else so that's kind of
my read on. It BUT i saw that too and was,
like what does that?
Speaker 4 (36:32):
Mean, YEAH i thought overlap there five hundred is usually
the number that is kind of rouse around my head
is to a lot of people have difficulty coming up
with that kind of. MONEY i would have guessed it's
a higher percentage than twenty nine percent BECAUSE i often
thought it was fifty percent Of. AMERICANS i would have.
Speaker 2 (36:51):
Thought it coached forty or. Fifty so, yeah, Like i'm
not saying thirty. Percent i'm not saying it's good at,
all but just from what i'd, heard But i'm, like,
honestly if you look at the income distributions to be
in like bottom thirty percentile by, INCOME i think you're
somewhere under like twenty five twenty seven, thousand and so
Again i'm kind of encouraged, That, like there aren't as
(37:13):
many people with a lack of savings AS i thought there.
Speaker 3 (37:17):
Were and when you.
Speaker 2 (37:17):
Look get baby, boomers baby boomers saved a meeting of two,
thousand which means that fifty percent of baby boomer households
have two thousand or more set aside for an emergency,
fund WHICH i think is pretty darn.
Speaker 4 (37:31):
GOOD i don't know where that's been, statistically but it
seems like a GOOD i don't know.
Speaker 2 (37:35):
Either but it seems pretty good on that. Side so
and obviously this is skewed down by Gen z who,
look when you're in your, twenties, like let's be, honest
you don't have an emergency fund because.
Speaker 3 (37:48):
You're not making very much.
Speaker 2 (37:49):
Money the rent is too damn, high and you're just
doing what you. Can and generally a lot of the
emergencies that do tend to happen happ and as you get,
older either you, know having kids or health trouble and
stuff like, that so the need for the same scale
is not necessarily present at that age. Either let's take
a quick break for the entire rest of the day
(38:11):
and feeds at two o'clock.
Speaker 3 (38:13):
Today we'll tell you all about it. Tomorrow you better believe.
Speaker 2 (38:17):
It
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(01:02):
This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck Zada and Paul.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
Lane, Chuck, Paul, and Tucker with you here on a
FED day at two pm Eastern in this afternoon, the
Federal Reserve is going to release its statement on monetary policy.
It is widely expected that the FED is going to
cut interest rates by a quarter percent. There is the
(01:27):
possibility that we see a half percentage point cut in
the Fed funds rate, but by and large that quarter
percent change is what is being priced into markets right now. Also,
we're going to be getting a summary of economic projections.
This is where the FED publishes in writing what they
think inflation, economic growth, unemployment, and the Fed funds rate
(01:50):
are going to be at the end of this year,
next year, twenty twenty seven, and long run projections there
and so we can get a sense of their thinking
as to how these things may evolve over the next
year or two and what their policy may be during
that time. Also, if you're interested in the Fed drama,
you got Steven Miron with his first ever appearance at
(02:16):
the FED for a FED meeting, and Lisa Cook is
gonna be there as well, after her appeals were successful
in allowing her to be at this meeting. So if
you want you know the reality TV aspect of it,
and the most dramatic season of the FED ever, then yeah,
(02:38):
you've got that today. The thing that quite honestly matters
more to me is, hey, what are they actually going
to do from a policy perspective, because that is what
actually impacts all of us on a daily basis. But
you got to acknowledge the drama that's going to be there,
because quite honestly, it is the most dramatic FED meeting ever,
even though the policy outcome is not likely to be
(03:00):
as dramatic though, but we do anticipate a rate cut there,
so that is going to be coming up at.
Speaker 3 (03:06):
Two pm Eastern in just a little bit.
Speaker 2 (03:11):
We turn our attention now just because again there's not
much else to say on that they haven't done anything yet,
And don't worry, we'll recap it all tomorrow for a
ton of time. We'll probably spend most of if not all,
of the show talking about the FED, because I do
think there's gonna be a lot to chew on there.
But we turn now to a topic where I couldn't
(03:34):
be happy to take this victory lap. I could be
because honestly, I'm not sure this is like a great
thing for the US, but.
Speaker 4 (03:39):
No, it's not. But great thing for the financial exchange
and chucks out.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
Gosh, I love to take victory laps on stuff like this,
So over the summer I speculated a couple of different
times that hey, even if the Trump administration approves the
export of Nvidia to chips to China, it's not a
given that China wouldness necessarily want to resume them. I
actually had Tucker poll actually Ben pulled the audio of
(04:06):
the show, and so let's play it right now, just
to hear what we were talking about a little while ago.
The other piece to me, that's interesting, and I said
this a few weeks ago when in Video got the
approval to send the H twenty chips over to China.
(04:28):
Wouldn't the most interesting thing be if China all of
a sudden just said, eh, we're not interested anymore. And
I just think it would be very interesting if China,
at this point in time, as they're going through these negotiations,
might say, you know what, we can figure out ways
to develop AI in the short term without in Video chips.
(04:50):
But gosh, it would sure hurt the US economy or
the US stock market if we just decided not to
buy them right now. So that's what I said on
August eleven, So that was five and a half weeks ago,
somewhere in that ballpark. And today, according to a report
from The Financial Times, China's internet regulator has banned the
(05:11):
country's biggest technology companies from buying in Vidia's artificial intelligence chips.
This is, you know, official banning today, not you know, hey,
the last couple weeks of well, we might dissuade you
from doing so.
Speaker 3 (05:22):
This is no.
Speaker 2 (05:24):
We are going to ban Chinese domestic large companies from
buying these Nvidia chips and less. Do you think that
this is something that seems like it's gonna just be
easily negotiated away? In Vidio CEO Jensen Huang was interviewed,
or rather gave a comment at least to the Financial
Times on this, and he said, we can only be
(05:49):
of service in a market if a country wants us
to be. We've probably contributed more to the China market
than most countries have, and I'm disappointed with what I see.
But they have larger agendas to work out between China
and the unit it states, and I'm understanding of that.
So that doesn't really sound like a person who thinks
that this is just going to be reversed in a
couple of weeks. That sounds like someone who's kind.
Speaker 3 (06:08):
Of like.
Speaker 2 (06:12):
I just lost It's like it's I. That's someone who
just says says like, I've spent the past six months
trying to make so much. I've been going back and
forth between the US and China. I've been at the
White House, you know, a half dozen times. I've got
the people I need on board with this, and you're
(06:33):
just gonna say no. And like it's the first time
I've ever heard him sound a little dejected about anything. Yeah,
you know, So I think that what we're you know,
the inference that you can make from this is China
thinks that it can figure out the chip side well enough.
(06:53):
It might not be as well as using the Nvidio chips,
but they think they have enough that they can do
with domestically sourced chips to be able to produce what
they need. There the obvious question that I have next,
And Tucker, I'm gonna write this down somewhere just so
we have it marked down, because Ben spent like an
(07:14):
hour looking for that quote just so that we could
find it to talk about it. The obvious question that
I have next, the US doesn't in Nvidia doesn't just
want to sell chips to US companies. I don't think
you have it like a real convincing case that I
don't think you have a convincing case that Microsoft is
going to all of a sudden be like, hey, these
(07:35):
domestically made China chips, do you think we should go
get some of the I don't get the sense that
that's going to happen.
Speaker 4 (07:42):
But European South America flooding with weak, cheaper chips.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
Europe, I think it'll actually be strong enough to fend
this off, just because they did it with Huawei a
few years back, even though they let Chinese EV manufacturers
come in and just run rough shot.
Speaker 3 (07:55):
Over their auto industry.
Speaker 2 (07:56):
Yep, for whatever reason, they actually took a stand on telecom.
It's good for them, Like I appreciate them doing so.
But the question that I do have is, hey, over
the course of the spring, there was the big presidential
trip through the Middle East where a bunch of Middle
Eastern countries committed to buying in video chips as well.
(08:20):
Does China come in and say, hey, you know what,
we're the biggest buyer of your oil at this point. Anyways, Sure,
I know that you want, you know, cruise missiles from raytheon.
But how about you take some of the stuff that
we're making on the defense side and we'll sell you
these chips at a big discount to in Vidia. It's
(08:42):
a win win for you. That's the That's the next
thing that I look at, because it's clear to me
that China is looking at It's clear to me that
China's looking at in Vidia and purchases by anyone from
them as a way to make the United States pay
(09:04):
economically without having to do anything from a terror for
trade perspective directly with US.
Speaker 4 (09:11):
This is the demarcation of a AI battle between China
and the US. This is the official declaration. You could
have speculated to this the last three to six months
with some of the back and forth, but I think
after not to say this was the reason behind it,
but some of Besson's comments, Treasure Secretary Besson just claiming
how weak the technology was of the H twenty chips,
(09:33):
it seemed to potentially have irged China a bit. And
ultimately I'm not saying that that was the main catalyst
for this, but this had been brewing for a while
that since we saw the unveiling of Deep Seek and
just the way that China has been aggressively going after AI,
they are clearly going to make this a significant priority.
In fact, they wanted to triple the country's output of
(09:55):
AI processors this year. So this is a big item
on their agenda. And you better believe, like you mentioned,
it's easy to make the next jump to from a
conclusion standpoint, why wouldn't they flood the global market with
as many as these chips as they can.
Speaker 3 (10:09):
It's what China does.
Speaker 4 (10:11):
Yeah, exactly, look at the EV market you mentioned it before.
It's going to be the same sort of thing. And
that's where the competition begins. It continues. I guess it's
been a competition before. This is when on the domestic
side of things, we got to ramp up and really
continue to compete to be the most sophisticating, the best
chips on the market.
Speaker 2 (10:32):
Now I can also make a convincing case that from
a national security perspective, maybe you shouldn't be supplying China
with these chips anyways, So this might end up being
a blessing in disguise On that side, even though it's
not the best thing economically for in video.
Speaker 3 (10:49):
Yeah, it's a.
Speaker 4 (10:50):
Really hard You could go side by side and arget
either way. If you want to argue geess, we should
have a footprint there and have them reliant on our technology,
because then we're controlling the game by buying the I'm
buying all our H twenty chips. It's better to be
have them with us. But then you could also make
the counter argument, jeez, perhaps it's not best to ship
them to China. Anyway, It's kind of you could argue
(11:12):
it either way, but ultimately we're going to get our
result is just we're not going to have chips that
are exported there.
Speaker 2 (11:19):
To take a quick break, and when we return, let's
do a little bit of trivia and then we'll talk
about the I want to talk more about the electricity
demands of all this AI data center construction, because they
are enormous, and we do have a piece from the
Wall Street Journal that's trying to make the case, hey,
AI can actually help us consume less energy. We'll talk
(11:42):
about whether that's realistic or just a bunch of poppycock.
Speaker 1 (11:45):
Right after this, the Financial Exchange is Life on Series
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(12:08):
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Speaker 5 (12:26):
All right, time for trivia here on the Financial Exchange.
And on this day in twenty nineteen, San Francisco Giants
outfielder Mike Yastremsky hit a home run in his first
game at Boston's Fenway Park, the longtime home field of
his grandfather, Carl Yustremsky. Yeaz so trivia question today, how
many seasons did Yazz play for the Boston Red Sox?
(12:48):
And that'll be Carl Yastremsky. How many seasons did Yazz
play for the Boston Red Sox. That's our trivia question today.
Be the fifth person today to text us at six
seven three six two thirteen eighty five with the correct answer,
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the fifth correct response to text us to the number
(13:10):
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win that T shirt. See complete contest rules at Financial
Exchange Show dot com.
Speaker 2 (13:19):
Piece in the Wall Street Journal, AI is going to
consume a lot of energy. It can also help us
consume less. Discuss chuck this this piece. This is ridiculous.
Speaker 4 (13:32):
I get what they're trying to go for here, but
I just am not buying the reason for it. So
basically what's laid on this Wall Street Journal piece is
that with the use of AI, it will allow for
companies to be more efficient and utilize this technology to
cut down on time sitting in traffic, to improve their
(13:52):
freight businesses, to improve marine freight, all these different areas
where a lot of gas and fuel is burned, increasing
harbon emissions. And I just the reason I think it's
absolutely preposterous is we've talked about the demand that this
is going to create on the grid. It is going
to be tremendous, and we've already seen electricity prices ticking
up because of some of this demand, and it's probably
(14:13):
only going to compound and get worse because there's a
lot of demand out there for these data centers. To
think over the last ten or fifteen years, that companies
haven't been using this type of technology to optimize their
roots to track performance of their vehicles is just ludicrous.
Like this, this isn't new. Just because you call something
AI doesn't mean that Uber Freight or Amazon or many
(14:37):
of these other companies over the last decade haven't been
using technology to analyze their cost structure as much as
possible in their trucks. So that is my rent.
Speaker 3 (14:46):
Yeah, a couple different things on this.
Speaker 2 (14:48):
The first is the AI technology that we've largely been
talking about for the last three years is known as
LM's large Language models, which are basically, hey, here, there's
trillions of different, you know, combinations of words that have
been used historically. I'm gonna ask you a question and
based on like the data set that I trained you
(15:08):
on all those different words, you're gonna spit something back
to me. The really interesting thing the way that llllms
learn how do we use what words go in certain
places is basically how your kids do it's kind of cool.
Like you, when you're you're teaching like a two year
old how to speak, you don't say, well, here's what
the word the means. It's no, they like repeat you
and learning the context of different phrases, and they pick
(15:29):
it up as they go. Llllms are kind of the
same thing. It's just that instead of training them, you know,
through a few words, they pick up every you know,
week or month.
Speaker 3 (15:37):
At first.
Speaker 2 (15:38):
Hey, here's like five trillion words, like go figure out
how to deal with this the stuff that we're talking
about here, Like they're giving an example of airlines are
using AI to help with dynamic route planning by understanding
like where the wind's blowing. And that's called machine learning.
And that's stuff that's been going on for ten fifteen
years now. I can you know, I've had conversation with
(16:00):
like friends of mine who have been doing this literally
since you know, twenty thirteen, twenty twelve, somewhere in that ballpark.
So the stuff that we're talking about now with large
language models, that's the stuff that's causing the real ramp
up in data center building.
Speaker 3 (16:18):
It's not United saying well.
Speaker 2 (16:21):
We want to know which way the wind's blowing like no, Like,
there's a reason why United is not building their own
data centers. It's because they just don't need that much
compute capacity to figure that out. You do need a
bunch of compute capacity when you know, idiots like me
are throwing stuff in, like hey, give me four good
chicken recipes to make if I have these things in
the fridge, Like okay, yeah, you need a bunch of
(16:44):
compute capacity in order to figure that stuff out when
you know hundreds of millions of people are starting to
use this stuff. The other piece, I'm gonna, you know,
just do like a comparison here, man, Americans wasted three
point three billion dollars three point three billion gallons of
gasoline and diesel fuel in twenty twenty two, over two
(17:06):
hundred and fifteen thousand barrels a day. So here's the thing.
About two hundred and fifteen thousand barrels a day. I'm
not saying it's not consequential, But what I am saying
is the United States in any given day uses like
eighteen to nineteen million barrels a day somewhere in that ballpark.
So two hundred and fifteen thousand barrels a day of
gas wasted sitting in traffic is like one percent of
(17:28):
our total Right now, the projections for AI electricity usage,
for data center electricity usage is that it's gonna go
from being about four percent of our electricity usage last
year to twelve percent in twenty twenty eight. So you're
telling me if AI and by the way, it's not
(17:49):
these large language models won't do it. But hey, if
AI can somehow get rid of all traffic, let me
repeat how ridiculous that is. If AI can somehow get
rid of all traffic, it can save us about one
percent of our daily gas usage.
Speaker 3 (18:09):
But the electricity usage by.
Speaker 2 (18:11):
The AI is going to go from four percent to
twelve percent. Something's not mathing in the math, Paul. And
so this even is before you get to the point that, Hey, generally,
when you make it so that you have less demand
for something and thus the cost of it goes down,
you get into Javon's paradox, which is, hey, is you
(18:34):
make something cheaper, people buy more of it, and so
you don't actually get these savings that you do, most
notably in things like energy. When energy becomes cheaper, people
don't say, well, I'm gonna use less of it. They say, no,
I'm gonna use more. I have all this money I saved,
I can I can. You know I need more energy
now in order to do more stuff.
Speaker 4 (18:54):
I just can't get over. It's, you know, reitering points
that have been going on for decades plus in these businesses.
These tactics have been used. You have to believe Amazon
and all these sophistic companies, they're always looking at their
bottom line to cut their expenses and how they can
increase profitabilities. So the fact that they have, however, many
hundreds of thousands of trucks driving around a daily basis
(19:14):
that they're not studying that, you're out of your mind.
If they haven't been, they don't think they haven't been
doing this.
Speaker 2 (19:19):
They're that suddenly gonna be like, hey, hey, chat GPT,
can you tell me which way the wind's blowing? Yes,
of course I can. Where would you like to go?
Jeff quick break. When we come back, we'll get the
trivia answer next.
Speaker 1 (19:39):
Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio. Every day,
it's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Time Now for Wall Street. Watch a complete look at
what's moving markets so far today right here on the
Financial Exchange Radio network.
Speaker 5 (19:58):
The markets are mixed territory. The head of the expected
quarter percent interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve at
the conclusion of their meeting at two o'clock. BET Chairman
Jerome poul will speak further about the Central Banks decision
during a press conference.
Speaker 3 (20:12):
At two thirty.
Speaker 5 (20:13):
Right now, the Dow is up by nearly seven tenths
of one percent or three hundred and four points higher.
SMP five hundred is down about a tenth of percent,
NASDAC down about half a percent or one hundred and
fourteen points lower. Russell two thousand now up over one
percent on the day, Tenure Treasure reeled is mostly unchanged
(20:34):
and is now at four point zero three five percent,
and crude oil down six tenths of one percent, trading
right around sixty four dollars barrel. Some more news as
it relates to in Nvidia and China this morning. According
to The Financial Times, China's internet regulator has banned the
country's largest tech firms from buying in Vidia's AI chips,
(20:55):
increasing China's efforts to lift its domestic industry and compete
with the United States. And video stock is down nearly
three percent on that news. Meanwhile, Lift shares are soaring
twelve percent, falling news that Weimo has partnered with Lyft
for the first time in a commercial deal to enter
(21:16):
Nashville next year. Elsewhere, General Mills posted mixed quarterly results
where it's earnings beat expectations but its organic sales growth
was about in line with expectations. Shares in the food
producer are down about one percent. Workday stock is jumping
eight percent after activist investor Elliott Management disclosed a two
(21:37):
billion dollar stake in the human resources software provider, and
Bernstein upgraded Zillo to outperform from market perform, where the
firm said it has been warming up to Zillo's fundamental
story inside of the company's a recent execution on revenue
growth as a factor. Zillo shares are up over three percent.
I'm Tucker Silva and that is Wall Street Watch and
(21:59):
in THEBS segment, we asked you the trivia question how
many seasons did Carl Ustremsky play for the Boston Red Sox.
That would be twenty three seasons. Bill from Medford, Mass
is our winner today, taking home a Financial Exchange Show
T shirt. Congrats to Bill and we play trivia every
day here in the Financial Exchange See complete contest rules
(22:22):
at Financial Exchange show dot com.
Speaker 2 (22:24):
US mortgage rates fall to twenty twenty four levels, fueling
refinancing surge. So mortgages did see a decline in rates
over the last three to six weeks, and so that
has mortgage rates now again in the low sixes for
thirty year fixed rate mortgages and in the high fives
(22:49):
for adjustable rate ones. Your thoughts, Paul on you know
kind of what we're gonna see as a result of this.
Speaker 4 (22:56):
I don't necessarily know that it's going to jolt the
the housing market at spend a really week last couple
of years for the housing market, but you are approaching
at least that psychological hurdle of being below six percent
and showing that five percent on there. Does that potentially
allow for more buyers to have the confidence to go
ahead and move forward with purchases. Perhaps, But I still
(23:20):
think that there are bigger systematic issues with the housing
market in general that unfortunately, you know, going from six'
seven to six point one, FIVE i don't know if
that's enough to do.
Speaker 2 (23:30):
It when you talk about those bigger systemic, issues are
you talking what we're seeing as far as insurance, rates
property taxes and those kinds of things are something.
Speaker 4 (23:37):
Else, yeah basically just how we've had increased inventory throughout the,
country which is a positive obviously for buyers out, there
but just hasn't been the. Demand and like you alluded
to the areas that we're seeing the increased, Inventory florida's
one to pick. On there just isn't the demand because
of those home, rage insurance costs and other factors. There
(23:58):
and then in just in general from a pricing, standpoint
affordability has has been an issue over the last several,
years AND i just don't see either of those things changing,
necessarily particularly in The North Seas northeast. HERE i don't
think you're gonna get enough inventory to bring down prices
so substantially that it makes more.
Speaker 2 (24:16):
Buyers jump back, In, Tucker Do paul AND i have
an outstanding bet on uh more skids?
Speaker 3 (24:20):
Rates?
Speaker 4 (24:21):
Yes we.
Speaker 3 (24:21):
Do uh, yeah hold, ON i thought we. DID i
can't remember what the context, was or.
Speaker 4 (24:27):
You, know a range of thirty year fixed mortgages for
twenty twenty.
Speaker 3 (24:30):
Five paul's plugged into. This, yeah, well because we covered,
trouble we covered it a week or two. Ago paul
knows he's, winning doesn't.
Speaker 4 (24:36):
He yesh, y we covered it a week or two,
Ago mike AND.
Speaker 5 (24:39):
I so, Yeah paul had a low fixed at five
point eight five high with seven point, one And chuck
had a low of five point two high of seven point, eight.
Speaker 4 (24:49):
And mike was in there.
Speaker 5 (24:50):
Too mike doesn't.
Speaker 3 (24:50):
Matter so what does this? Mean how DO i?
Speaker 2 (24:52):
Win it's it's probably whoever's closest, on like when you
take the high water mark and and combine.
Speaker 3 (25:00):
Them, Right So I'm i'm losing right, now, Correct.
Speaker 5 (25:05):
Yeah Because paul seemed very happy to be talking about.
Speaker 2 (25:09):
This all, Right, well given the things for, moving given
the rates are moving down right, Now, JAY i really
need a little help this uh this.
Speaker 3 (25:15):
Afternoon then then to get, that, UH i need five to.
Speaker 4 (25:18):
TWO i need to tie things. Up after My nvidia
earnings prediction moving markets more than, that that was a big.
Speaker 3 (25:24):
One that was a big win for.
Speaker 2 (25:26):
Me SO i could use a w further proof that IN,
uh when it comes to, markets there's no one that
has a one track.
Speaker 3 (25:34):
Record.
Speaker 2 (25:35):
Folks if you have questions about what's going on in
the economy right, now whether it's, housing whether it's the,
markets anything, else the labor, market what's going on. There
Armstrong Advisory group is going to be hosting two financial
seminars this. Fall one is going to be at The Margaritaville,
Resort Cape cod On october. Ninth the next one is
(25:56):
At showcase Super lucks In Chestnut hill On october. Sixteenth
both times we're there's gonna be a live broadcast of
The Financial exchange on site there and then a seminar
afterwards talking about what's going on in THE us economy
and chance to answer some of your questions as. Well,
again that first event is going to be happening At
(26:18):
Margaret Margaretevelt, Resort Cape cod On october. Ninth the second
one is On october sixteenth at The showcase Super lucks
In Chestnut. Hill there is limited space. There call eight
hundred three nine three for zero zero one to reserve your.
Spot that number again is eight hundred three nine three
(26:40):
for zero zero. One you can also register At Armstrong
advisory dot.
Speaker 1 (26:45):
Com the proceeding was paid for By Armstrong Advisory, group
a registered investment. Advisor nothing in the ad or in
Any armstrong guide a specific, financial, legal or tax advice
consult your own, financial, tax and estate planning advisors before
making any investment. Decisions armstrong may contact offer investment advisory.
Services why is.
Speaker 3 (27:03):
The tea silent in?
Speaker 4 (27:04):
MORTGAGE i have no, idea BUT i know you're here
dying to get to.
Speaker 1 (27:09):
THIS i don't. Know It's.
Speaker 2 (27:12):
French mortgage Is. French the origin Is. French, yeah it
means In. FRENCH i believe it's Old. FRENCH i think
it comes from the term dead pledge and whatever it
means In, french or however that is spelled in Old.
Speaker 4 (27:26):
French thank, You Ken.
Speaker 2 (27:27):
Jennings and so the more you, know that's why mortgage
has A. T but no one says mortgage except for.
Speaker 3 (27:36):
Us you us.
Speaker 2 (27:40):
Why you should own some? Gold piece from The Wall Street.
Journal so two things can be. True the first is
that as a diversifier in a, portfolio there's a case
to be made for gold and or other precious metals
as a. Portion there's also a case to be made
(28:02):
that if all you own is, gold it's not really
a great, strategy since gold produces no, income no economic,
value nor does it do anything to improve your. Life
and it's also probably true that if you're taking your
tips on when to buy gold from The Wall Street,
journal that's probably not the best time to be doing,
(28:23):
so because, well they're probably talking about it because it's
done well, recently and gold tends to do well during
very short periods of time and then go through periods
of intense boredom for longer.
Speaker 4 (28:32):
Stretches, yes they do to be fairer to The Wall
Street journal writer, here he does mention that it's doubled
in the last few, Years so, Yeah.
Speaker 3 (28:40):
Gregori does a great job for.
Speaker 2 (28:41):
THEM i think the headline writer is the person WHO
i have a bigger problem with who they don't tell
you who writes the, headline, Right, yeah you know they
don't tell you that person's name.
Speaker 4 (28:48):
Exactly but that's always been the general philosophy with the
use of gold within a portfolio is it's A it's
not correlated to what goes on in the stock, Market
so having smaller percentage in it can help in times
of you, know strife with the stock. Market but it
is a case that is emphasized more when gold is
(29:11):
doing well the last ten, years prior to the couple
that we've had over the last Few if you look
at THE s AND p five hundred returns to. Gold
it was an absolute bludgeoning over that period of. Time
so it's something that gets emphasized when things are a
little sunnier on the gold.
Speaker 2 (29:27):
Front so in any, case, look gold IS i always
come back to the fact investors love to treat gold
the way they should treat. Stocks investors hold gold and they're, like,
Oh i'm gonna own this gold, forever and generally it
kind of keeps up with inflation but doesn't do like
(29:47):
too much more than that because it doesn't earn. Anything
and with, stocks people want to be, Like, Ooh i'm
going to be in out And i'm gonna be a
super trade and look at. ME i can go in
and out and buy low and sell. High, NOPE i
didn't do that.
Speaker 3 (30:00):
There. Sorry so.
Speaker 2 (30:03):
Ultimately i'm not saying that LIKE i have any idea
exactly when to buy or sell gold, either but it
typically makes its money in short like one or two year,
stretches and then a lot of times either goes sideways
for a decade or might even lose like fifty percent
in a decade like the twenty. Tens so, generally if
you will get the historical track, record gold is great
(30:27):
during those crisis, periods but doesn't really do anything else,
otherwise whereas stocks tend to do a lot else otherwise
and obviously struggle in those short crisis. Periods this is
why in a diversified portfolio with different kinds of assets and,
things gold can help to provide some. Smoothing but you,
know it's it's everything in, balance everything you know in,
(30:49):
MODERATION i guess is the point THAT i try to
make on this. Stuff quick break here and when we come,
back let's do a little bit of stack.
Speaker 1 (30:56):
Roulette The Financial exchange is now available from eleven to
noon Non serious XM's business radio channel one thirty. Two
stay informed about the latest From Wall, street fiscal, policy
and breaking business news every. Day The Financial exchange is
life On serious XM's business radio channel one thirty. Two
face is The Financial Exchange Radio. Network The Financial exchange
(31:20):
streams live on. YouTube subscribe to our page and stay
up to date on breaking business news all morning. Long
face is The Financial Exchange Radio.
Speaker 5 (31:29):
Network this YEAR'S dav FIVE k is less than three
months away and slots are filling up, Fast so if
you'd like to, participate now's the time to. Register the
race Is, Saturday november, eighth A Castle island and you
can visit dav five k Dot boston to sign up
(31:49):
or join our Team TEAM. Tfe your support helps fund
free rides to medical appointments for veterans and the nation's
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and veteran. Families go to dav five k Dot boston
and register.
Speaker 3 (32:07):
Today, paul what do you got for?
Speaker 4 (32:09):
Me for Stack, Roulette LimeWire has agreed to acquire Fire.
Festival what could possibly go? Wrong? So, LimeWire for those who,
forget was a company that you were able to download
files a lot of it was similar To napster music
files and and other video files out there that got
(32:32):
shut down by court ruling in twenty. Ten but for
many of us who grew up late nineties early two,
thousands it was for those people who did down an
easy way to download a lot of free, music but obviously.
Speaker 3 (32:43):
Chance of downloading a virus.
Speaker 4 (32:45):
Exactly it was a, difficult difficult dance to. Balance firefests
for those who also may forget was subject of a
popular documentary done By netflix a couple years, back Where
billy McFarland had put together this fancy festival that promised
(33:06):
models and musical stars and where did they do it
was The bahamas that They they did it down in The.
Bahamas he had put together these tremendous hype videos with
all these celebrities and, influencers and then people spent thousands
of dollars to go down to The, bahamas only to
find out there was no, food no, Water.
Speaker 2 (33:24):
No you got A fema tent and a piece of
bread With american cheese next to.
Speaker 4 (33:30):
It it was just an absolute. Calamity he was sentenced
to six years in, prison convicted of. Fraud so now
you Have LimeWire Acquiring Fire festival's. Brands So LimeWire was
rebranded in twenty twenty two by Some austrian brothers that
now apparently DOES nft. Services And i'm confused as to
(33:53):
what this really means other than just two nostalgic names
of companies gone wrong or events gone wrong over the
last ten t fifteen. Years but it's in the. News
so it.
Speaker 2 (34:03):
Feels like you know Those russian nesting dolls where you pull,
one you open one, up and there's another, inside and
then there's another inside and. Another it feels like that's
what we're like doing here when it comes to just
like questionable businesses with you, know not the best history
and the potential for. Fraud, definitely it's, like, hey how
(34:27):
do you make fire festival? Better mix it with? Crypto
like it just it doesn't feel? Great And, tucker wasn't
it correct me If i'm? Wrong Didn't billy McFarlane say
that they were listing the Fire festival brand for sale On?
Speaker 3 (34:45):
eBay wasn't it?
Speaker 4 (34:46):
Such this is the?
Speaker 3 (34:47):
Sale?
Speaker 2 (34:48):
Right but like so why did why Did limeweer have
to announce? This couldn't you just go on The eBay
listing and see who?
Speaker 4 (34:54):
Won of course they want to announce, it SO i
would talk about limemark because when's the last time you
talked About.
Speaker 3 (34:58):
Limemar it's, true it's it's been a.
Speaker 4 (35:00):
Minute it's been a long.
Speaker 2 (35:01):
Time, yeah, yeah it's uh. Again i'll be, honest didn't
even know they still. Existed BUT i guess.
Speaker 4 (35:09):
We won't keep you updated on this endeavor wherever it.
Speaker 3 (35:12):
Goes if it goes, wrong we. Will, yeah that's. True
that that's.
Speaker 2 (35:15):
Wrong we will if it goes. Well, no, Okay like,
great you had a concert in The. Bahamas, fine Like,
YAHOO i didn't. Go i'm want to talk a little
bit about this study from ePower that the median emergency
savings For americans is five hundred. DOLLARS a third Of
americans don't have an emergency savings, fund and twenty nine
percent say they can't afford an unexpected expense over four hundred.
(35:40):
DOLLARS a couple things THAT i take away from. This
it's actually better THAN i thought it would. Be, really
why if if we're saying that three out of Four,
americans there's seven out of Ten americans can figure out
how to come up with four hundred dollars on short,
NOTICE i think that's pretty good given how many people
(36:03):
are really, struggling you, know or saying that they're struggling
economically right. NOW i think it's encouraging to me that
fewer than thirty percent of people have trouble coming up with.
Speaker 4 (36:15):
That one in three have no emergency fund, savings thirty
percent say they can't Afford.
Speaker 2 (36:20):
I'm guessing there's a few percentages that have like higher
income but no emergency, fund, okay and it's just like
all cut spending on something. Else so that's kind of
my read on. It BUT i saw that too and was,
like what does that?
Speaker 4 (36:32):
Mean, YEAH i thought overlap there five hundred is usually
the number that is kind of rouse around my head
is to a lot of people have difficulty coming up
with that kind of. MONEY i would have guessed it's
a higher percentage than twenty nine percent BECAUSE i often
thought it was fifty percent Of. AMERICANS i would have.
Speaker 2 (36:51):
Thought it coached forty or. Fifty so, yeah, Like i'm
not saying thirty. Percent i'm not saying it's good at,
all but just from what i'd, heard But i'm, like,
honestly if you look at the income distributions to be
in like bottom thirty percentile by, INCOME i think you're
somewhere under like twenty five twenty seven, thousand and so
Again i'm kind of encouraged, That, like there aren't as
(37:13):
many people with a lack of savings AS i thought there.
Speaker 3 (37:17):
Were and when you.
Speaker 2 (37:17):
Look get baby, boomers baby boomers saved a meeting of two,
thousand which means that fifty percent of baby boomer households
have two thousand or more set aside for an emergency,
fund WHICH i think is pretty darn.
Speaker 4 (37:31):
GOOD i don't know where that's been, statistically but it
seems like a GOOD i don't know.
Speaker 2 (37:35):
Either but it seems pretty good on that. Side so
and obviously this is skewed down by Gen z who,
look when you're in your, twenties, like let's be, honest
you don't have an emergency fund because.
Speaker 3 (37:48):
You're not making very much.
Speaker 2 (37:49):
Money the rent is too damn, high and you're just
doing what you. Can and generally a lot of the
emergencies that do tend to happen happ and as you get,
older either you, know having kids or health trouble and
stuff like, that so the need for the same scale
is not necessarily present at that age. Either let's take
a quick break for the entire rest of the day
(38:11):
and feeds at two o'clock.
Speaker 3 (38:13):
Today we'll tell you all about it. Tomorrow you better believe.
Speaker 2 (38:17):
It
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