November 21, 2025 • 38 mins
Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong discuss global brokerages split on Fed's December rate decision. Treasury yields slide after Fed's Williams suggests Fed could cut again in December. Do comparisons to the dot com bubble hold any water? Bitcoin heads for its worst week since the crypto collapse of 2022. Paul LaMonica (Barron's) joins the show to chat about Deere and its wild ride this year.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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(01:03):
This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck Zada and Mike Armstrong.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
Chuck Mike Ben with you, and as we try to
finish up the week, We've got a very volatile day,
with index prices moving half a percent in a span
of minutes multiple times over the course of the day.
As of this very instant that I'm speaking, the Dow
Jones Industrial Average is up one hundred and twenty seven points,
(01:30):
the S and P five hundreds down seven and the
Nasdaq is down about one hundred and fifty points, so
overall mixed markets, but the NASDAK really continuing to feel pain,
being led down by Oracle Core. We've Palenteer, AMD and
in Nvidio and Broadcom, all of which are down more
(01:51):
than three percent today. Google trying its best to try
to keep the puppy Afloat up about three point three
percent and Apple up one point four Those are base
the things that are keeping the wheels from falling off
as we sit here right now. When we take a
look at other markets that we are watching, the Tenuere
Treasury is down four point five basis points to four
(02:16):
point zero five nine percent, so interest rates moving down
a touch. We'll talk about why in just a moment.
Dollar index despite interest rates moving down. Dollar Index up
point one four percent to one hundred point two three five,
and we've got gold up nine dollars and thirty cents
nounce to four thy sixty nine and thirty cents. Crude
(02:37):
oil down dollar twenty eight on West Texas Intermediate to
fifty seven seventy two, so crude oil price is continuing
to slide. Triple A national averagur gas prices though still
up on the week from three zho eight to three
point three dollars and nine point four cents, and so
still no major movement when it comes to gas price
(03:00):
is a year ago we were at three h six,
so there's been a three cent swing in a full year. Mike,
we got a couple of things to talk about as
it relates to the December FED meeting basically going into today.
If you look at the CME FED watch tool, it
was a thirty nine percent chance of a cut and
(03:22):
a sixty point nine percent chance of no cut at
the December meeting this morning. Though, John Williams, who do
we have do we have his music? Or is that
just a Tucker thing? That's just a Tucker thing. It's
it's fine New York FED President John Williams came out
this morning and said, in no uncertain terms, yeah, I'm
(03:42):
probably a go for a cut at the December meeting.
And so just when you actually look at who you
know is voting in December, markets have now swung to
a seventy five percent chance of a rate cut at
that December meeting. This had the the impact of and
I watched this right as it happened. S and P
five hundred futures moved up about two thirds of a
(04:04):
percent in five minutes after Williams said this, And I
can't help Mike, and I'm again I don't like to
make the tech bubble comparison too much because like A,
I don't really know if like this thing is that
I suspect it might be in certain instances, but I
(04:26):
don't know that it is. And also, like when you
say tech bubble, everyone just gets like really nervous because
the tech bubble sucked. But I can't help but be
drawn to this piece from the New York Times from
January third, two thousand and one. Stock surge on FED
rate cut Nasdaq adds more than fourteen percent. And granted
(04:47):
this was it like it.
Speaker 3 (04:47):
Happened after January of one, I can't seem to recall.
Speaker 2 (04:51):
Well, it's funny that you should mention that, because I
actually I pulled this up today just because I was like, oh,
let me see exactly what happened, you know, the of
the year for two thousand and one, and in fact,
it was really really bad in the Nasdaq for the
rest of the year. So the Nasdaq, as I indicated there,
(05:15):
it did spike fourteen percent, you know, on that day.
It actually went on to make a new all time
high even about five percent above that a month later
and by the end of the year, really by the
end of September, remember two thousand and one, he did
have September eleventh that obviously impacted things as well. But
the Nasdaq then traded down about sixty five percent from
(05:37):
the end of January through mid September.
Speaker 3 (05:40):
Yeah, I mean, chuck difference this time.
Speaker 4 (05:42):
Invest just don't care about this, you know, perceived move
in rates, Well they did briefly, but again the dominant
narrative has taken back over here.
Speaker 5 (05:53):
I think we're smarter than then.
Speaker 3 (05:56):
I doubt it.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
No, Like, what I mean by that is we have
that history in place where like people like me can
be like, hey, look what happened then, whereas I don't
think that you had like quite the same history in
two thousand, just because it was it was the first
time through something like that.
Speaker 5 (06:13):
In a lot of cases, this is.
Speaker 4 (06:16):
Not the thing that people care most about. I don't
think in terms of the rate cuts, but I will
say that if we continue to get a sell off
into December in equity markets, then that's going to be
a pretty good incentive for the FED to go and
cut rates. I know that they do not directly care
about that, but they do care about financial conditions, equity
markets being one of those conditions. And so you know,
(06:39):
we're barely off five percent of all time highs on
equity markets right now. But you know, imagine for a
moment that you get a continued deterioration in equity markets
and you have some voters that are FED, voters that
are on the cusp about what to do. I would
think a market selloff is enough to push them towards
another quarter point rate cuts. So I see where CMA
(07:00):
futures are going with this. But I land back on
if your concern is that companies participating in the AI
universe right now are grossly overvalued, borrowing too much, and
going to face issues with revenue realization of the course
the next few years. Hell, forget about twenty five basis
(07:24):
point rate cut. One hundred basis point radcut doesn't fix
that problem.
Speaker 3 (07:27):
So you know, I'm not sure that this is what's
going to matter to equity markets at the moment.
Speaker 5 (07:31):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (07:31):
I mean again, the cut that happened in January of
two thousand and one. It was a surprise inter meeting
fifty basis point rate cut, and it didn't end up
mattering because the tech bubble was already popping.
Speaker 3 (07:49):
Yep.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
So that like, this is why I can hold two
views in my head simultaneously, one of which is, hey,
if the FED was cutting in September and October, I
don't think we've gotten anything to this point that says
that they shouldn't be cutting in December. But I also
don't think it matters what they do in December, because
the economy either a is going to be strong enough
(08:12):
to pull itself out of you know, this little concern
that we're in right.
Speaker 5 (08:15):
Now, or B.
Speaker 2 (08:18):
It's not even close to the amount of firepower that
you need to deal with the amount of spending that's
going to be canceled, and what's going to happen to
AI related stocks in the event that this is a
bubble that's popping.
Speaker 4 (08:30):
And you know, so long as we're talking about firepower, Chuck,
I don't the type of firepower you would need to
bring to bear to if we end up in that
market condition. Given where deficit spending already is right now,
is going to be a tremendous amount of money. We're
running what seven pace for seven percent deficits this year
(08:53):
after the same for the last several years. I recognize
that in the event of a full on recession, Congress
will not blink at printing trillions of dollars?
Speaker 5 (09:04):
Where do you print it? Though?
Speaker 2 (09:05):
I don't mean like, where do you physically print it?
But like, here's an interesting question. Let's let's say there
is a recession. What exactly do you do based on
where the problem is coming from?
Speaker 5 (09:25):
I don't know, yeah, I mean, look, we have.
Speaker 4 (09:28):
A tough time playing this one out right. Does this
lead to mass layoffs? These companies that are impacted by
this are not exactly the largest employers in this economy.
So if you've got a stock market sell off and
recession that didn't result in markeably higher inflation or sorry,
higher unemployment, then you might not do.
Speaker 3 (09:44):
Much at all.
Speaker 4 (09:45):
If it leads to problems in debt markets and problems
with businesses being able to find financing that have nothing
to do with tech and artificial intelligence, then yeah, you
might see the FED come into stop back backstops loans.
You might see Congress come in to provide some relief
to the housing market to see if that can kickstart
(10:06):
the economy. I think it depends on what sort of
recession you're talking about.
Speaker 2 (10:10):
Let's take a quick break when we come back. I
want to spitball on this just I don't know. Do
you mind entertaining me on this for a little bit. Nce,
Let's take a quick break and then let's continue this
discussion when we return.
Speaker 1 (10:25):
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Speaker 2 (11:36):
Mike, let's talk a little bit about responses in the
event of a recession.
Speaker 5 (11:44):
I don't know if.
Speaker 2 (11:45):
We're going to go in one, and I have no clue,
like exactly what it would look like. But it came up,
you know, in the last segment, Hey, like, what would
the response be, because if you look at the last
couple of times that there has been a recession, two
very different responses. The first one, if we go back
to the financial crisis, it was okay, we're going to
(12:06):
basically it was three pronged, in my opinion, we're going
to backstop the banks and bail them out. We're going
to bail out automakers, and then we're going to pass
a an infrastructure bill that hopefully stimulates the economy.
Speaker 5 (12:22):
And ultimately people were unhappy about all three of those things.
You know.
Speaker 2 (12:26):
The fact that banks were bailed out while individuals were not,
you could argue, was kind of a microcosm as to
how we've gotten to where we are in twenty twenty five.
You know, socialism for the big guy, free market for
the little guy. Like that's kind of how it feels.
Same thing on the auto bailouts. I think people feel similarly,
you know, in that respect, and the infrastructure bill that
(12:50):
was passed, the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act, generated one
of the most lackluster recoveries out of a recession that
we ever seen.
Speaker 4 (13:01):
So by the way, Chuck, you know, reactions to that
you point out, like the bailout for the big guy,
nothing for the little guy. I think it's also why
the reaction to the COVID crisis, while still focused on
companies by and large through things like the paycheck Protection Program,
it was more of the everybody gets money during this recession,
and I think that's a direct result of the criticisms
(13:22):
of a wait when they just went after employers.
Speaker 2 (13:25):
Right, So then we had, you know, the COVID stuff, which, Okay,
here's you know, stimulus check for this, and paycheck protection
for that, and YadA YadA.
Speaker 3 (13:32):
Your student loans for four years. Yeah, all sorts of
fun stuff.
Speaker 5 (13:35):
The whole thing.
Speaker 2 (13:36):
Like, and I think we look back at both of
those situations and we're like, yeah, neither of them were
really exactly you.
Speaker 5 (13:43):
Know, how we should have done things.
Speaker 2 (13:45):
You know, we we tried not to make the same
mistakes we did coming out of eight and instead we
made entirely new ones coming out of twenty twenty.
Speaker 4 (13:52):
So let's go back to the one that keeps getting
compared to then, right, it's the dot com bubble. What
happened there. In April of two thousand, unemployment was three
point eight percent. The recession, according to the NBR, kicked
off in March of one. You know, by two thousand
and three. The recession was officially over by November of
two thousand and one, but by March of June of
(14:13):
two thousand and three, you had unemployment at six point
three percent.
Speaker 3 (14:18):
I mean, to me, the reaction from the government.
Speaker 4 (14:22):
What led us out of that recession is not quite
as clear as it was with you know, passage of
the Troubled Asset Relief program and bank bailouts. Maybe it's
because I was younger when it happened. But there were
some tax cuts, there were some wars. There was also
a pretty rapid I've.
Speaker 5 (14:41):
Never heard it referred to quint that way. There were
some tax cuts, there were some wars.
Speaker 4 (14:46):
You know, there were some wars I don't I really
point to though. You know, by the mid two thousands,
you had some major tech companies that had gotten beat
up during the doc bubble actually showing some pretty profitable businesses,
and therefore you did not have this maybe you didn't
(15:07):
have this need.
Speaker 3 (15:08):
Or impulse for additional fiscal support.
Speaker 2 (15:11):
Yeah, so I think when you talk about it, so, Yeah,
you had the Bush tax cuts that went into place
in the middle of two thousand and one, and that
was obviously, you know, a pretty substantial fiscal response. What
it ended up doing. In two thousand, there was a
federal government surplus of two hundred and thirty six billion dollars.
By two thousand and three, the deficit was up to
three hundred and seventy eight billion dollars for that calendar year.
(15:33):
There also was a two thousand and two stimulus bill
that was passed that was largely some bonus depreciation for
businesses to encourage investment. It extended unemployment insurance by thirteen
extra weeks UH, and then also had some additional relief
because remember the tech bubble bursting overlapped with the nine
(15:54):
to eleven attacks, and so you had some industries that
were impacted negatively by them, most notably airlines and you know,
other travel related businesses, and so you had.
Speaker 5 (16:04):
That go through.
Speaker 2 (16:05):
You also then had an acceleration of the Bush tax
cuts that was passed in two thousand and three as well.
So I think if we look at this, the way
that I try to think about it is Okay, if
there is a recession today, what.
Speaker 5 (16:20):
Like who or what ends up being hurt the most
by it.
Speaker 2 (16:26):
I don't think we're in a situation where you're gonna
see anything done to try to federally support AI companies
that can't support themselves.
Speaker 5 (16:36):
Is that fair?
Speaker 3 (16:38):
God? I hope not.
Speaker 4 (16:40):
I mean it's fair. God, I hope they don't. Congress
doesn't go and backstop AI.
Speaker 2 (16:44):
Companies It's also tough for me to see just hey,
here's a bunch of stimulus checks going out again, because
as much as individuals like to receive those stimulus checks,
I don't think we liked the collective. Hey, here's what
happened when we just gave people a bunch of money.
I'm not saying this is wrong or right. I'm just
saying our last are the last battle we fought with
(17:07):
that ended up generating a bunch of inflation.
Speaker 3 (17:12):
I tend to think you're right.
Speaker 4 (17:14):
I'm a lot less certain about that one, but I
tend to think, yeah, a bunch of stimulus being pushed
out is unlikely due to the inflation reaction in twenty
twenty two.
Speaker 3 (17:23):
What i's too fresh.
Speaker 2 (17:24):
What I can see being done in order to kind
of mesh a lot of priorities that are currently out
there right now with where things are potentially impacted, is hey,
let's pass you know, some bills for you know, additional
funds for reshoring of American manufacturing through big investment on
(17:45):
that side. Well, it does that to me is kind
of where I feel it ends up probably landing because
it deals with construction workers that might be impacted by
you know, slowing data center creation. It impacts you know,
the production of goods in the US, which is an
obvious priority at this point, and potentially gets people back
to work in that fashion.
Speaker 4 (18:06):
I would bet something specific on housing. Maybe that's the
COSP that pushes the fifty year mortgage over the finish line,
but other support for housing, because if there's another common
theme right now, it's all about housing affordability.
Speaker 2 (18:20):
So that's kind of where I think we may go
if we get to that point. We're obviously nowhere near
that right now. I think that, you know, this is
something that may or may not develop over the next
six to twelve months, but it's stuff that I think
about just to try to figure out, okay, like what
are the possible responses and possible beneficiaries, because you want
(18:44):
to be thinking about this stuff in advance. Taking a
look at markets as we head towards the bottom of
the hour, the S and P is now back into
the green, up twenty six points, mostly like the last
three minutes while we've been discussing this. The Nasdaq also
back in the green, up ten point points, and so
again just a very choppy day with a lot of
(19:05):
minute to minute volatility that ultimately hasn't really taken us
too far at this point.
Speaker 5 (19:11):
Quick break. When we return, we get the trivia answer
in Wall Street.
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Time now for.
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Wall Street Watch.
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A complete look at what's moving market so far today
right here on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 6 (19:42):
A lot can change in the span of an hour. Currently,
the Dow Jones is up over eight tenths of a percent,
the S and P five hundred is up over half percent,
and the Nasdaq has flipped back to positive and now
it's up over three tenths of a percent. The inverse,
the vis flipped negative and it's down over four percent.
Eli Lilly earlier this morning reached the one trillion market
(20:05):
capitalization club. It's the first healthcare company in the world
to join that exclusive club, usually dominated by tech firms.
The company's stock has climbed more than thirty six percent
this year. The Indianapolis based drug maker stock has been
riding the skyrocketing popularity of its weight loss injection zep
bound and diabetes treatment Munjaro. Eli Lilly is up over
(20:26):
seven tenths of a percent. Apparel retailer Gap is up
over eight percent after topping expectations for same store sales
with five percent growth in the latest quarter thanks to
its viral better in Denim campaign with Katsey. Excluding the pandemic,
same store sales growth was the fastest since its fiscal
twenty seventeen holiday quarter. Cloud solutions provider Viva Systems is
(20:49):
off by over twelve percent after saying it expects fewer
top biopharmaceutical companies to select its Vault CRM. Viva posted
third quarter earnings of two dollars and four cents per
share exclude one time items, on eight hundred and eleven
point two million dollars in revenue. Analysts predicted a dollar
ninety five per share on seven hundred and ninety two
point eight million in revenue. Ross Stores reported better than
(21:12):
expected revenue of five point six billion compared to analyst
estimate of five point four to two billion, pushing its
shares up over seven percent. Ross also raised its fourth
quarter earnings guidance, saying we now expect terror related costs
to be negligible. Finally, data analytics company Elastic is down
over fourteen percent after reporting fiscal second quarter results that
(21:33):
saw a deceleration in cloud growth. However, elastic suggusted earnings
and revenue topped Wall Street expectations. I am Ben Kitchen
and that was Wall Street Watch. Going back to a
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(21:53):
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Speaker 2 (22:02):
Piece and Bloomberg Mike Bitcoin heading for worst month since
crypto collapse of twenty twenty two, was that the one
they referred to as crypto Winter.
Speaker 4 (22:09):
I don't know, Chuck Eprockly so many I've seen so
much about crypto, especially before this most recent collapse, about
you know, oh, had you only invested one hundred dollars
in bitcoin, you know, fifteen years ago, look at how
much you'd be worth it, And it fails to mention
that you would have had to ride out like several
(22:29):
ninety percent collapses in the price of bitcoin in.
Speaker 3 (22:32):
Order to get where you are. Sure, But this most
reason one is significant.
Speaker 4 (22:36):
We're talking about a thirty percent sell off in bitcoin
as well as other cryptocurrencies. I guess where it crosses
my mind. A client asked me about this just yesterday
in fact, is hey, is there any relation to the
sell off we're seeing in the NASDAC and other equity
markets and the you know, more steep cell off we're
(22:57):
seeing in crypto And I don't know which one might
be leading the other, but it made me think of leverage, right,
and it made me think of, Okay, if an investor
is levered in the crypto market, which we know there's
plenty of leverage in the crypto market, and the underlying
collateral for that loan starts behaving badly like bitcoin has,
(23:21):
you might need to cover your loan and how might
you go about doing that?
Speaker 3 (23:24):
Well, you might go sell your other holdings.
Speaker 4 (23:26):
And we don't have any data in terms of what
the overlap is between crypto investors and AI high flying
trades like that, but I would imagine that there is
some and I'm just kind of openly wondering if that
could be a contributing factor to some of the pressure
we're seeing on.
Speaker 3 (23:45):
The AI trade as well.
Speaker 5 (23:46):
I think it's absolutely a contributing factor.
Speaker 2 (23:48):
I mean we quite honestly, for the last week or
so in particular, you've seen that as crypto, in particular
Bitcoin makes new legs down, it has tended to lead
and coincide with what's going on in the broader market.
And I think the problem here that the broader market
(24:09):
has is that there's just you know, a much more
direct conduit in there with all these bitcoin ETFs out
there that have billions of dollars now where look, you
can be getting margin called on something like that, and
it ends up liquidating something else that you then have,
you know, in a standard portfolio, and now it's cascading
into other markets in ways that it didn't necessarily do
(24:33):
so in the past. And so I think ultimately I
look at just what we've seen in the action on
you know, some of these ETFs and stuff in the
last week, and then what's been reflected in equity markets,
and it's hard to look at it and say that
they are not tied in any way, shape or form.
Speaker 3 (24:53):
Now, yeah, I tend to see that link more and
more clearly.
Speaker 4 (24:57):
And we've talked for years about the seeming relation between
the Nasdaq especially and cryptocurrency moves.
Speaker 3 (25:05):
But it does look, I mean, the last five.
Speaker 4 (25:08):
Years in equity markets as well as crypto markets have
been defined by by the dip mentality, and we will
just kind of have to see if that mentality returns
to this moment in time or if we're in some
different type of cycle.
Speaker 3 (25:22):
But I think where I drive this one home is.
Speaker 4 (25:26):
A lot of investors have made a boatload of money
over the course of the last three years, even well
diversified investors who are not trying to play crypto markets,
or just the NASDAK investors across the board, if they've
stayed invested, have made tremendous amounts of money over the
last three years. And we are sitting here now with
some renewed concerns about what has driven most of that
(25:47):
leg up where which said which has been artificial intelligence?
Equity markets at this stage, what do we say, chuck
five percent off their all time highs.
Speaker 3 (25:56):
If you are.
Speaker 4 (25:57):
Finding yourself in a position where you're in that boat,
you have made a tremendous amount of money over the
last three years, and you're trying to figure out ways
to diversify and protect that from a potential downturn. I'm
not saying that that's where we are headed, but clearly
that's the concern that is making its way through media outlets.
It's the only thing that anybody is talking about right
(26:17):
now in financial media is the possibility of this being
a bubble. Have someone take a look, get a second
opinion on what it is you're doing and how it
might impact your future, because that's I mean. I know
that there are people that just get enjoyment from placing
trades on stock trading platforms, but for most of us,
the reason we do any of this is to fund
(26:37):
our future and use those future investments to fund things
like our retirement or our kids college education. And if
you're wondering how you are positioned for a potential shift
in that narrative, give the Armstrong Advisory Group a call
and let us give you an opinion. We work every
day with our clients to formulate the portfolio that's right
for their financial situation. We'd love to help you too.
(26:57):
We offer free consultations the public all across the New
England area in person.
Speaker 3 (27:03):
We do these via zoom, via phone, whatever works best
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Speaker 4 (27:06):
Offices though scattered from Portland, Maine, down to Wallingford, Connecticut
and everywhere in between, and we'd love to meet you too.
Speaker 3 (27:14):
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Speaker 2 (27:49):
Mike, do we want to cover another piece on the
demise of the middle class? Do we want to talk
about Black Friday being behind us despite the fact that
it's next Friday? Or do we want to talk about
people ditching booze for cannabis at Thanksgiving?
Speaker 3 (28:03):
UHH.
Speaker 4 (28:05):
I'm confused by this idea of Black Friday being behind
us because I just got like four emails from companies
that I do business with telling me that they're going
to be opening at midnight on Friday. So I don't
know that the tradition is behind us at this point,
do you well it?
Speaker 5 (28:23):
I don't think it's behind us.
Speaker 4 (28:26):
But if I go to an outlet mall on Friday
after Thanksgiving, I bet they're going to be open and busy.
Speaker 2 (28:33):
Yeah, I guess I'm just kind of with that to
press you. I don't enjoy Black Friday. Look, I'm not
a mall person. The idea of having to in some
cases literally fight with other people to try to say
five dollars on a Christmas gift feels wrong to me.
Speaker 4 (29:00):
What I'm particularly excited about chuck on Black Friday. Unfortunately
I can't attend because I won't be local for Black Friday.
But the local store where I do most of my
hockey shopping for myself and my kids played against Sports,
they're having a Black Friday sale. And I mean, talk
about a good place for a bunch of fist fights
over discounts.
Speaker 2 (29:21):
Yeah, I mean, you got gloves and helmets, like right,
pop them on. Let's let's do it.
Speaker 5 (29:26):
You want it all? Right? Here we go, you know,
get in the room.
Speaker 4 (29:30):
I'm gonna get that stick for forty five dollars.
Speaker 3 (29:33):
Come hell or high water.
Speaker 5 (29:35):
Let's take a quick break here.
Speaker 2 (29:36):
When we return, we're gonna be joined by Paul Monica
from Barons. We're talking John Deere right after this.
Speaker 1 (29:43):
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Speaker 3 (30:21):
Ladies and gentlemen the weekend.
Speaker 6 (30:27):
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American Veterans Department of Massachusetts. This year's race was a
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Speaker 2 (30:53):
As promised, We're now joined by Paul Monica from Baron's
here to talk a little bit about Dear Paul, how
are you doing today?
Speaker 3 (31:01):
Good?
Speaker 8 (31:01):
Thanks?
Speaker 3 (31:02):
How you guys doing.
Speaker 5 (31:03):
We're doing pretty well.
Speaker 2 (31:04):
So when we take a look at Deer overall, you know,
again just you know, kind of taking a look at
year to date, since we're almost.
Speaker 5 (31:12):
At the end of the year, now almost at the end.
Speaker 2 (31:13):
Yeah, up about thirteen percent, pretty much the same as
what we've seen from the S and p give or take,
you know, a couple percentage points on any day, but
the path has been different with Deer struggling a little
bit since the end of Q two.
Speaker 5 (31:26):
What's going on here?
Speaker 8 (31:28):
Yeah, I think there are you know, some concerns about
the broader economy that you know, might be weighing on
Deer stock. But when you look at you know, this
company and you know the potential for you know, earnings
to you really begin rebounding over the next couple of years,
(31:50):
there are a couple of factors at play, you know,
that that could really help. I know it's going to
sound a little bit of strange, you know when when
you think of g deer, you think of you know,
big tractors. But there is a bit of an AI element,
smart technology, you know, in some of their agricultural equipment
(32:11):
that could help farmers wind up knowing where exactly in
a more precise way to be spraying fertilizer for example.
That's potentially a boost for deer. And you know, I
think there's the hope that you know, you know, China
US trade relations will stabilize after some of the tough
(32:33):
talk between Trump and She and that you know, China
obviously could be a very big purchaser of deer equipment,
you know, given soybeans.
Speaker 2 (32:45):
When we look at deer and the construction side of things,
you know, what exactly does that side of their business
look like and can it offset some of the farming side.
Speaker 8 (32:56):
Yeah, I mean, Caterpillar has obviously been a nominal stock,
so deer does compete to some extent, not as much,
but you know, there is the construction element as well
that can help offset some potential weakness in agriculture. You know,
So I think that is you're right, a potential bowl
(33:19):
case for deer stock as well, even if the agricultural
law market doesn't redound as quickly as some analysts would hope.
Speaker 2 (33:28):
And in terms of Deer and you know, kind of
looking at where they may expand into. Obviously, look there's
been there's a company that is, you know, a mainstay
in you know, any any you know, you go through,
you know, any kind of community. You've got deer tractors,
you know out there. They're you know big obviously in construction.
(33:48):
But is there anything that they're trying to do that's
new as far as new business lines they may be
trying to break into.
Speaker 8 (33:55):
Yeah, I don't know if necessarily Deer is the type
of company that you're you're going to say, would really
you know, benefit from from new business lines per se.
I think it's really more about modernization of the equipment.
They are going to be spending a lot to upgrade
(34:17):
manufacturing and assembly line so that the equipment is better.
Speaker 3 (34:23):
And I think.
Speaker 5 (34:23):
That's you know, really the case with a.
Speaker 8 (34:27):
Company and industrial company like Deer that you're hoping that
through technology they are able to more efficiently produce the
equipment as opposed to say Deer looking to enter a
brand new market per se market segment.
Speaker 2 (34:43):
Very good, Paul, appreciate you joining us today. Thank you
so much for the time, and we will catch up
with you soon.
Speaker 8 (34:51):
Yeah, definitely have a good Thanksgiving everyone, And yeah, I
guess we'll talk in December.
Speaker 2 (34:54):
Absolutely, you too, Paul, and yeah, we will definitely catch
up in December. That is paul A Monica from Barons
talking about Dear Mike. What else do we have that
we haven't gotten through today?
Speaker 4 (35:07):
This is a few weeks old now, but the alligator
rescued from the Charles River in Boston has made national
news because thank god, alligators don't belong in the city
of Boston. Two things that I will just say about this. One,
if our environment is changing enough for alligators to survive
(35:28):
in Boston, then I'm moving to either Alaska or Canada.
Speaker 3 (35:32):
Two.
Speaker 4 (35:33):
An alligator was discovered in Chicago back in twenty nineteen
and they gave it the excellent name Chance the Snapper.
That is good, And I'm just really disappointed that we
haven't come up with a good nickname for this gator
that we discovered in Boston. There's got to be some
good dropkick Murphy's Aerosmith Carr's nickname that we can come
(35:58):
up with here, because thus far I've I'm up with
nothing and nobody else has either, and I find that
genuinely disappointing. But I live very close to the Charles River,
and when I initially read this story, not knowing that, yeah,
some duf has probably let a pet out.
Speaker 3 (36:13):
I had some moments of fear.
Speaker 4 (36:17):
Then I saw it and it's it's tiny, It's like
the size of a water bottle, and it's really cute.
Speaker 2 (36:21):
So I wasn't I'm trying to I'm trying to think,
like what you would I.
Speaker 4 (36:27):
Was tossing into AI and I'll tell you they came
Gemini came up with nothing good for me?
Speaker 5 (36:32):
What can you give me some of the bad examples?
Speaker 4 (36:36):
We had Arrow Snapper as a play on Arrowsmith Charles Krock.
Speaker 3 (36:44):
There was one, Yeah, just really nothing, nothing all that solid.
Speaker 2 (36:50):
Yeah, I'm trying to think if there's anything that you
could that you could do there, But.
Speaker 5 (36:55):
I'm kind of drawing a blank. Yeah, is there anything really?
Speaker 2 (37:00):
Like for some reason, I don't know, Like Matt Damon
kind of gives me alligator vibes, Mmm, Like, is there anything.
Speaker 6 (37:06):
That you can do there Altho. I know we have
to explore that. Why Why does Matt Damon give you
alligator VI?
Speaker 2 (37:12):
I don't know, like I just feel like something like
does his face kind of like alligatory sometimes?
Speaker 3 (37:17):
No?
Speaker 4 (37:18):
No, no, yeah, I mean Marky Mark ben Affleck. If
anybody has any good gator nicknames based on famous Bostonians,
we would really know.
Speaker 5 (37:27):
There's there's no good names that like rhyme with.
Speaker 2 (37:30):
There's nothing good that rhymes with gator, like I'm going through, Yeah,
like Damon, a fleck, bill Burra.
Speaker 4 (37:35):
Could be based on its sharp teeth or the fact
that they bite. You know, there's other things about gators
that we can feature here, but Chance the Snapper is
definitely coming up with the wins.
Speaker 3 (37:45):
So good job, Chicago, you have us peace.
Speaker 2 (37:47):
Markets have taken a meaningful term positive. The Dow is
now up more than five hundred points, SMP's up more
than one percent, NASDAC up about one hundred and seventy.
Speaker 5 (37:55):
Hope you all have a great weekend.
Speaker 2 (37:57):
We'll see you back here on Monday.
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(01:03):
This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck Zada and Mike Armstrong.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
Chuck Mike Ben with you, and as we try to
finish up the week, We've got a very volatile day,
with index prices moving half a percent in a span
of minutes multiple times over the course of the day.
As of this very instant that I'm speaking, the Dow
Jones Industrial Average is up one hundred and twenty seven points,
(01:30):
the S and P five hundreds down seven and the
Nasdaq is down about one hundred and fifty points, so
overall mixed markets, but the NASDAK really continuing to feel pain,
being led down by Oracle Core. We've Palenteer, AMD and
in Nvidio and Broadcom, all of which are down more
(01:51):
than three percent today. Google trying its best to try
to keep the puppy Afloat up about three point three
percent and Apple up one point four Those are base
the things that are keeping the wheels from falling off
as we sit here right now. When we take a
look at other markets that we are watching, the Tenuere
Treasury is down four point five basis points to four
(02:16):
point zero five nine percent, so interest rates moving down
a touch. We'll talk about why in just a moment.
Dollar index despite interest rates moving down. Dollar Index up
point one four percent to one hundred point two three five,
and we've got gold up nine dollars and thirty cents
nounce to four thy sixty nine and thirty cents. Crude
(02:37):
oil down dollar twenty eight on West Texas Intermediate to
fifty seven seventy two, so crude oil price is continuing
to slide. Triple A national averagur gas prices though still
up on the week from three zho eight to three
point three dollars and nine point four cents, and so
still no major movement when it comes to gas price
(03:00):
is a year ago we were at three h six,
so there's been a three cent swing in a full year. Mike,
we got a couple of things to talk about as
it relates to the December FED meeting basically going into today.
If you look at the CME FED watch tool, it
was a thirty nine percent chance of a cut and
(03:22):
a sixty point nine percent chance of no cut at
the December meeting this morning. Though, John Williams, who do
we have do we have his music? Or is that
just a Tucker thing? That's just a Tucker thing. It's
it's fine New York FED President John Williams came out
this morning and said, in no uncertain terms, yeah, I'm
(03:42):
probably a go for a cut at the December meeting.
And so just when you actually look at who you
know is voting in December, markets have now swung to
a seventy five percent chance of a rate cut at
that December meeting. This had the the impact of and
I watched this right as it happened. S and P
five hundred futures moved up about two thirds of a
(04:04):
percent in five minutes after Williams said this, And I
can't help Mike, and I'm again I don't like to
make the tech bubble comparison too much because like A,
I don't really know if like this thing is that
I suspect it might be in certain instances, but I
(04:26):
don't know that it is. And also, like when you
say tech bubble, everyone just gets like really nervous because
the tech bubble sucked. But I can't help but be
drawn to this piece from the New York Times from
January third, two thousand and one. Stock surge on FED
rate cut Nasdaq adds more than fourteen percent. And granted
(04:47):
this was it like it.
Speaker 3 (04:47):
Happened after January of one, I can't seem to recall.
Speaker 2 (04:51):
Well, it's funny that you should mention that, because I
actually I pulled this up today just because I was like, oh,
let me see exactly what happened, you know, the of
the year for two thousand and one, and in fact,
it was really really bad in the Nasdaq for the
rest of the year. So the Nasdaq, as I indicated there,
(05:15):
it did spike fourteen percent, you know, on that day.
It actually went on to make a new all time
high even about five percent above that a month later
and by the end of the year, really by the
end of September, remember two thousand and one, he did
have September eleventh that obviously impacted things as well. But
the Nasdaq then traded down about sixty five percent from
(05:37):
the end of January through mid September.
Speaker 3 (05:40):
Yeah, I mean, chuck difference this time.
Speaker 4 (05:42):
Invest just don't care about this, you know, perceived move
in rates, Well they did briefly, but again the dominant
narrative has taken back over here.
Speaker 5 (05:53):
I think we're smarter than then.
Speaker 3 (05:56):
I doubt it.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
No, Like, what I mean by that is we have
that history in place where like people like me can
be like, hey, look what happened then, whereas I don't
think that you had like quite the same history in
two thousand, just because it was it was the first
time through something like that.
Speaker 5 (06:13):
In a lot of cases, this is.
Speaker 4 (06:16):
Not the thing that people care most about. I don't
think in terms of the rate cuts, but I will
say that if we continue to get a sell off
into December in equity markets, then that's going to be
a pretty good incentive for the FED to go and
cut rates. I know that they do not directly care
about that, but they do care about financial conditions, equity
markets being one of those conditions. And so you know,
(06:39):
we're barely off five percent of all time highs on
equity markets right now. But you know, imagine for a
moment that you get a continued deterioration in equity markets
and you have some voters that are FED, voters that
are on the cusp about what to do. I would
think a market selloff is enough to push them towards
another quarter point rate cuts. So I see where CMA
(07:00):
futures are going with this. But I land back on
if your concern is that companies participating in the AI
universe right now are grossly overvalued, borrowing too much, and
going to face issues with revenue realization of the course
the next few years. Hell, forget about twenty five basis
(07:24):
point rate cut. One hundred basis point radcut doesn't fix
that problem.
Speaker 3 (07:27):
So you know, I'm not sure that this is what's
going to matter to equity markets at the moment.
Speaker 5 (07:31):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (07:31):
I mean again, the cut that happened in January of
two thousand and one. It was a surprise inter meeting
fifty basis point rate cut, and it didn't end up
mattering because the tech bubble was already popping.
Speaker 3 (07:49):
Yep.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
So that like, this is why I can hold two
views in my head simultaneously, one of which is, hey,
if the FED was cutting in September and October, I
don't think we've gotten anything to this point that says
that they shouldn't be cutting in December. But I also
don't think it matters what they do in December, because
the economy either a is going to be strong enough
(08:12):
to pull itself out of you know, this little concern
that we're in right.
Speaker 5 (08:15):
Now, or B.
Speaker 2 (08:18):
It's not even close to the amount of firepower that
you need to deal with the amount of spending that's
going to be canceled, and what's going to happen to
AI related stocks in the event that this is a
bubble that's popping.
Speaker 4 (08:30):
And you know, so long as we're talking about firepower, Chuck,
I don't the type of firepower you would need to
bring to bear to if we end up in that
market condition. Given where deficit spending already is right now,
is going to be a tremendous amount of money. We're
running what seven pace for seven percent deficits this year
(08:53):
after the same for the last several years. I recognize
that in the event of a full on recession, Congress
will not blink at printing trillions of dollars?
Speaker 5 (09:04):
Where do you print it? Though?
Speaker 2 (09:05):
I don't mean like, where do you physically print it?
But like, here's an interesting question. Let's let's say there
is a recession. What exactly do you do based on
where the problem is coming from?
Speaker 5 (09:25):
I don't know, yeah, I mean, look, we have.
Speaker 4 (09:28):
A tough time playing this one out right. Does this
lead to mass layoffs? These companies that are impacted by
this are not exactly the largest employers in this economy.
So if you've got a stock market sell off and
recession that didn't result in markeably higher inflation or sorry,
higher unemployment, then you might not do.
Speaker 3 (09:44):
Much at all.
Speaker 4 (09:45):
If it leads to problems in debt markets and problems
with businesses being able to find financing that have nothing
to do with tech and artificial intelligence, then yeah, you
might see the FED come into stop back backstops loans.
You might see Congress come in to provide some relief
to the housing market to see if that can kickstart
(10:06):
the economy. I think it depends on what sort of
recession you're talking about.
Speaker 2 (10:10):
Let's take a quick break when we come back. I
want to spitball on this just I don't know. Do
you mind entertaining me on this for a little bit. Nce,
Let's take a quick break and then let's continue this
discussion when we return.
Speaker 1 (10:25):
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Speaker 2 (11:36):
Mike, let's talk a little bit about responses in the
event of a recession.
Speaker 5 (11:44):
I don't know if.
Speaker 2 (11:45):
We're going to go in one, and I have no clue,
like exactly what it would look like. But it came up,
you know, in the last segment, Hey, like, what would
the response be, because if you look at the last
couple of times that there has been a recession, two
very different responses. The first one, if we go back
to the financial crisis, it was okay, we're going to
(12:06):
basically it was three pronged, in my opinion, we're going
to backstop the banks and bail them out. We're going
to bail out automakers, and then we're going to pass
a an infrastructure bill that hopefully stimulates the economy.
Speaker 5 (12:22):
And ultimately people were unhappy about all three of those things.
You know.
Speaker 2 (12:26):
The fact that banks were bailed out while individuals were not,
you could argue, was kind of a microcosm as to
how we've gotten to where we are in twenty twenty five.
You know, socialism for the big guy, free market for
the little guy. Like that's kind of how it feels.
Same thing on the auto bailouts. I think people feel similarly,
you know, in that respect, and the infrastructure bill that
(12:50):
was passed, the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act, generated one
of the most lackluster recoveries out of a recession that
we ever seen.
Speaker 4 (13:01):
So by the way, Chuck, you know, reactions to that
you point out, like the bailout for the big guy,
nothing for the little guy. I think it's also why
the reaction to the COVID crisis, while still focused on
companies by and large through things like the paycheck Protection Program,
it was more of the everybody gets money during this recession,
and I think that's a direct result of the criticisms
(13:22):
of a wait when they just went after employers.
Speaker 2 (13:25):
Right, So then we had, you know, the COVID stuff, which, Okay,
here's you know, stimulus check for this, and paycheck protection
for that, and YadA YadA.
Speaker 3 (13:32):
Your student loans for four years. Yeah, all sorts of
fun stuff.
Speaker 5 (13:35):
The whole thing.
Speaker 2 (13:36):
Like, and I think we look back at both of
those situations and we're like, yeah, neither of them were
really exactly you.
Speaker 5 (13:43):
Know, how we should have done things.
Speaker 2 (13:45):
You know, we we tried not to make the same
mistakes we did coming out of eight and instead we
made entirely new ones coming out of twenty twenty.
Speaker 4 (13:52):
So let's go back to the one that keeps getting
compared to then, right, it's the dot com bubble. What
happened there. In April of two thousand, unemployment was three
point eight percent. The recession, according to the NBR, kicked
off in March of one. You know, by two thousand
and three. The recession was officially over by November of
two thousand and one, but by March of June of
(14:13):
two thousand and three, you had unemployment at six point
three percent.
Speaker 3 (14:18):
I mean, to me, the reaction from the government.
Speaker 4 (14:22):
What led us out of that recession is not quite
as clear as it was with you know, passage of
the Troubled Asset Relief program and bank bailouts. Maybe it's
because I was younger when it happened. But there were
some tax cuts, there were some wars. There was also
a pretty rapid I've.
Speaker 5 (14:41):
Never heard it referred to quint that way. There were
some tax cuts, there were some wars.
Speaker 4 (14:46):
You know, there were some wars I don't I really
point to though. You know, by the mid two thousands,
you had some major tech companies that had gotten beat
up during the doc bubble actually showing some pretty profitable businesses,
and therefore you did not have this maybe you didn't
(15:07):
have this need.
Speaker 3 (15:08):
Or impulse for additional fiscal support.
Speaker 2 (15:11):
Yeah, so I think when you talk about it, so, Yeah,
you had the Bush tax cuts that went into place
in the middle of two thousand and one, and that
was obviously, you know, a pretty substantial fiscal response. What
it ended up doing. In two thousand, there was a
federal government surplus of two hundred and thirty six billion dollars.
By two thousand and three, the deficit was up to
three hundred and seventy eight billion dollars for that calendar year.
(15:33):
There also was a two thousand and two stimulus bill
that was passed that was largely some bonus depreciation for
businesses to encourage investment. It extended unemployment insurance by thirteen
extra weeks UH, and then also had some additional relief
because remember the tech bubble bursting overlapped with the nine
(15:54):
to eleven attacks, and so you had some industries that
were impacted negatively by them, most notably airlines and you know,
other travel related businesses, and so you had.
Speaker 5 (16:04):
That go through.
Speaker 2 (16:05):
You also then had an acceleration of the Bush tax
cuts that was passed in two thousand and three as well.
So I think if we look at this, the way
that I try to think about it is Okay, if
there is a recession today, what.
Speaker 5 (16:20):
Like who or what ends up being hurt the most
by it.
Speaker 2 (16:26):
I don't think we're in a situation where you're gonna
see anything done to try to federally support AI companies
that can't support themselves.
Speaker 5 (16:36):
Is that fair?
Speaker 3 (16:38):
God? I hope not.
Speaker 4 (16:40):
I mean it's fair. God, I hope they don't. Congress
doesn't go and backstop AI.
Speaker 2 (16:44):
Companies It's also tough for me to see just hey,
here's a bunch of stimulus checks going out again, because
as much as individuals like to receive those stimulus checks,
I don't think we liked the collective. Hey, here's what
happened when we just gave people a bunch of money.
I'm not saying this is wrong or right. I'm just
saying our last are the last battle we fought with
(17:07):
that ended up generating a bunch of inflation.
Speaker 3 (17:12):
I tend to think you're right.
Speaker 4 (17:14):
I'm a lot less certain about that one, but I
tend to think, yeah, a bunch of stimulus being pushed
out is unlikely due to the inflation reaction in twenty
twenty two.
Speaker 3 (17:23):
What i's too fresh.
Speaker 2 (17:24):
What I can see being done in order to kind
of mesh a lot of priorities that are currently out
there right now with where things are potentially impacted, is hey,
let's pass you know, some bills for you know, additional
funds for reshoring of American manufacturing through big investment on
(17:45):
that side. Well, it does that to me is kind
of where I feel it ends up probably landing because
it deals with construction workers that might be impacted by
you know, slowing data center creation. It impacts you know,
the production of goods in the US, which is an
obvious priority at this point, and potentially gets people back
to work in that fashion.
Speaker 4 (18:06):
I would bet something specific on housing. Maybe that's the
COSP that pushes the fifty year mortgage over the finish line,
but other support for housing, because if there's another common
theme right now, it's all about housing affordability.
Speaker 2 (18:20):
So that's kind of where I think we may go
if we get to that point. We're obviously nowhere near
that right now. I think that, you know, this is
something that may or may not develop over the next
six to twelve months, but it's stuff that I think
about just to try to figure out, okay, like what
are the possible responses and possible beneficiaries, because you want
(18:44):
to be thinking about this stuff in advance. Taking a
look at markets as we head towards the bottom of
the hour, the S and P is now back into
the green, up twenty six points, mostly like the last
three minutes while we've been discussing this. The Nasdaq also
back in the green, up ten point points, and so
again just a very choppy day with a lot of
(19:05):
minute to minute volatility that ultimately hasn't really taken us
too far at this point.
Speaker 5 (19:11):
Quick break. When we return, we get the trivia answer
in Wall Street.
Speaker 7 (19:15):
Watch, bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio.
Every day, it's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange
Radio Network.
Speaker 1 (19:30):
Time now for.
Speaker 3 (19:31):
Wall Street Watch.
Speaker 1 (19:33):
A complete look at what's moving market so far today
right here on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 6 (19:42):
A lot can change in the span of an hour. Currently,
the Dow Jones is up over eight tenths of a percent,
the S and P five hundred is up over half percent,
and the Nasdaq has flipped back to positive and now
it's up over three tenths of a percent. The inverse,
the vis flipped negative and it's down over four percent.
Eli Lilly earlier this morning reached the one trillion market
(20:05):
capitalization club. It's the first healthcare company in the world
to join that exclusive club, usually dominated by tech firms.
The company's stock has climbed more than thirty six percent
this year. The Indianapolis based drug maker stock has been
riding the skyrocketing popularity of its weight loss injection zep
bound and diabetes treatment Munjaro. Eli Lilly is up over
(20:26):
seven tenths of a percent. Apparel retailer Gap is up
over eight percent after topping expectations for same store sales
with five percent growth in the latest quarter thanks to
its viral better in Denim campaign with Katsey. Excluding the pandemic,
same store sales growth was the fastest since its fiscal
twenty seventeen holiday quarter. Cloud solutions provider Viva Systems is
(20:49):
off by over twelve percent after saying it expects fewer
top biopharmaceutical companies to select its Vault CRM. Viva posted
third quarter earnings of two dollars and four cents per
share exclude one time items, on eight hundred and eleven
point two million dollars in revenue. Analysts predicted a dollar
ninety five per share on seven hundred and ninety two
point eight million in revenue. Ross Stores reported better than
(21:12):
expected revenue of five point six billion compared to analyst
estimate of five point four to two billion, pushing its
shares up over seven percent. Ross also raised its fourth
quarter earnings guidance, saying we now expect terror related costs
to be negligible. Finally, data analytics company Elastic is down
over fourteen percent after reporting fiscal second quarter results that
(21:33):
saw a deceleration in cloud growth. However, elastic suggusted earnings
and revenue topped Wall Street expectations. I am Ben Kitchen
and that was Wall Street Watch. Going back to a
trivia question earlier, the question was what day does Hanuka
begin this year? That'd be December fourteenth. Maureen and killing Lee,
Connecticut is our winner. She's going to be taking home
(21:53):
a Financial Exchange Show t shirt. We play trivia every
day here on the Financial Exchange. See the complete contest rules.
Ifinanciel Exchange Show, dot Com.
Speaker 2 (22:02):
Piece and Bloomberg Mike Bitcoin heading for worst month since
crypto collapse of twenty twenty two, was that the one
they referred to as crypto Winter.
Speaker 4 (22:09):
I don't know, Chuck Eprockly so many I've seen so
much about crypto, especially before this most recent collapse, about
you know, oh, had you only invested one hundred dollars
in bitcoin, you know, fifteen years ago, look at how
much you'd be worth it, And it fails to mention
that you would have had to ride out like several
(22:29):
ninety percent collapses in the price of bitcoin in.
Speaker 3 (22:32):
Order to get where you are. Sure, But this most
reason one is significant.
Speaker 4 (22:36):
We're talking about a thirty percent sell off in bitcoin
as well as other cryptocurrencies. I guess where it crosses
my mind. A client asked me about this just yesterday
in fact, is hey, is there any relation to the
sell off we're seeing in the NASDAC and other equity
markets and the you know, more steep cell off we're
(22:57):
seeing in crypto And I don't know which one might
be leading the other, but it made me think of leverage, right,
and it made me think of, Okay, if an investor
is levered in the crypto market, which we know there's
plenty of leverage in the crypto market, and the underlying
collateral for that loan starts behaving badly like bitcoin has,
(23:21):
you might need to cover your loan and how might
you go about doing that?
Speaker 3 (23:24):
Well, you might go sell your other holdings.
Speaker 4 (23:26):
And we don't have any data in terms of what
the overlap is between crypto investors and AI high flying
trades like that, but I would imagine that there is
some and I'm just kind of openly wondering if that
could be a contributing factor to some of the pressure
we're seeing on.
Speaker 3 (23:45):
The AI trade as well.
Speaker 5 (23:46):
I think it's absolutely a contributing factor.
Speaker 2 (23:48):
I mean we quite honestly, for the last week or
so in particular, you've seen that as crypto, in particular
Bitcoin makes new legs down, it has tended to lead
and coincide with what's going on in the broader market.
And I think the problem here that the broader market
(24:09):
has is that there's just you know, a much more
direct conduit in there with all these bitcoin ETFs out
there that have billions of dollars now where look, you
can be getting margin called on something like that, and
it ends up liquidating something else that you then have,
you know, in a standard portfolio, and now it's cascading
into other markets in ways that it didn't necessarily do
(24:33):
so in the past. And so I think ultimately I
look at just what we've seen in the action on
you know, some of these ETFs and stuff in the
last week, and then what's been reflected in equity markets,
and it's hard to look at it and say that
they are not tied in any way, shape or form.
Speaker 3 (24:53):
Now, yeah, I tend to see that link more and
more clearly.
Speaker 4 (24:57):
And we've talked for years about the seeming relation between
the Nasdaq especially and cryptocurrency moves.
Speaker 3 (25:05):
But it does look, I mean, the last five.
Speaker 4 (25:08):
Years in equity markets as well as crypto markets have
been defined by by the dip mentality, and we will
just kind of have to see if that mentality returns
to this moment in time or if we're in some
different type of cycle.
Speaker 3 (25:22):
But I think where I drive this one home is.
Speaker 4 (25:26):
A lot of investors have made a boatload of money
over the course of the last three years, even well
diversified investors who are not trying to play crypto markets,
or just the NASDAK investors across the board, if they've
stayed invested, have made tremendous amounts of money over the
last three years. And we are sitting here now with
some renewed concerns about what has driven most of that
(25:47):
leg up where which said which has been artificial intelligence?
Equity markets at this stage, what do we say, chuck
five percent off their all time highs.
Speaker 3 (25:56):
If you are.
Speaker 4 (25:57):
Finding yourself in a position where you're in that boat,
you have made a tremendous amount of money over the
last three years, and you're trying to figure out ways
to diversify and protect that from a potential downturn. I'm
not saying that that's where we are headed, but clearly
that's the concern that is making its way through media outlets.
It's the only thing that anybody is talking about right
(26:17):
now in financial media is the possibility of this being
a bubble. Have someone take a look, get a second
opinion on what it is you're doing and how it
might impact your future, because that's I mean. I know
that there are people that just get enjoyment from placing
trades on stock trading platforms, but for most of us,
the reason we do any of this is to fund
(26:37):
our future and use those future investments to fund things
like our retirement or our kids college education. And if
you're wondering how you are positioned for a potential shift
in that narrative, give the Armstrong Advisory Group a call
and let us give you an opinion. We work every
day with our clients to formulate the portfolio that's right
for their financial situation. We'd love to help you too.
(26:57):
We offer free consultations the public all across the New
England area in person.
Speaker 3 (27:03):
We do these via zoom, via phone, whatever works best
for you.
Speaker 4 (27:06):
Offices though scattered from Portland, Maine, down to Wallingford, Connecticut
and everywhere in between, and we'd love to meet you too.
Speaker 3 (27:14):
Numbers eight hundred three nine three for zero zero one.
Speaker 4 (27:18):
If you're driving right now, can't call go to Armstrong
Advisory dot Com. When you get where you're going. You
can request a callback right on our website. But that
number once again for the Armstrong Advisory Group and to
book your free meeting is eight hundred three nine three
four zero zero one.
Speaker 1 (27:33):
The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult
your own financial, tax into state planning advisors before making
any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
advisory services.
Speaker 2 (27:49):
Mike, do we want to cover another piece on the
demise of the middle class? Do we want to talk
about Black Friday being behind us despite the fact that
it's next Friday? Or do we want to talk about
people ditching booze for cannabis at Thanksgiving?
Speaker 3 (28:03):
UHH.
Speaker 4 (28:05):
I'm confused by this idea of Black Friday being behind
us because I just got like four emails from companies
that I do business with telling me that they're going
to be opening at midnight on Friday. So I don't
know that the tradition is behind us at this point,
do you well it?
Speaker 5 (28:23):
I don't think it's behind us.
Speaker 4 (28:26):
But if I go to an outlet mall on Friday
after Thanksgiving, I bet they're going to be open and busy.
Speaker 2 (28:33):
Yeah, I guess I'm just kind of with that to
press you. I don't enjoy Black Friday. Look, I'm not
a mall person. The idea of having to in some
cases literally fight with other people to try to say
five dollars on a Christmas gift feels wrong to me.
Speaker 4 (29:00):
What I'm particularly excited about chuck on Black Friday. Unfortunately
I can't attend because I won't be local for Black Friday.
But the local store where I do most of my
hockey shopping for myself and my kids played against Sports,
they're having a Black Friday sale. And I mean, talk
about a good place for a bunch of fist fights
over discounts.
Speaker 2 (29:21):
Yeah, I mean, you got gloves and helmets, like right,
pop them on. Let's let's do it.
Speaker 5 (29:26):
You want it all? Right? Here we go, you know,
get in the room.
Speaker 4 (29:30):
I'm gonna get that stick for forty five dollars.
Speaker 3 (29:33):
Come hell or high water.
Speaker 5 (29:35):
Let's take a quick break here.
Speaker 2 (29:36):
When we return, we're gonna be joined by Paul Monica
from Barons. We're talking John Deere right after this.
Speaker 1 (29:43):
Find daily interviews in full shows of the Financial Exchange
on our YouTube page. Subscribe to our page and get
caught up on anything and everything you might have missed.
This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network. The Financial Exchange
is life on series sex Business Radio Channel one thirty
two weekdays from eleven to noon. Get the latest business
(30:05):
and financial news from across the country and around the world,
and keep up to date on how it might affect
your wallet. That's the Financial Exchange weekdays from eleven to
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Face He's the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 3 (30:21):
Ladies and gentlemen the weekend.
Speaker 6 (30:27):
The Financial Exchange is a proud partner of the Disabled
American Veterans Department of Massachusetts. This year's race was a
tremendous success, and if you act fast, you can sign
up for next year's race during our early access registration
period through November thirtieth. Discounts are available, but you have
to register by November thirtieth, visit dav fivek dot Boston
(30:47):
and securior Spot. Today that's dav five k dot Boston.
Speaker 2 (30:53):
As promised, We're now joined by Paul Monica from Baron's
here to talk a little bit about Dear Paul, how
are you doing today?
Speaker 3 (31:01):
Good?
Speaker 8 (31:01):
Thanks?
Speaker 3 (31:02):
How you guys doing.
Speaker 5 (31:03):
We're doing pretty well.
Speaker 2 (31:04):
So when we take a look at Deer overall, you know,
again just you know, kind of taking a look at
year to date, since we're almost.
Speaker 5 (31:12):
At the end of the year, now almost at the end.
Speaker 2 (31:13):
Yeah, up about thirteen percent, pretty much the same as
what we've seen from the S and p give or take,
you know, a couple percentage points on any day, but
the path has been different with Deer struggling a little
bit since the end of Q two.
Speaker 5 (31:26):
What's going on here?
Speaker 8 (31:28):
Yeah, I think there are you know, some concerns about
the broader economy that you know, might be weighing on
Deer stock. But when you look at you know, this
company and you know the potential for you know, earnings
to you really begin rebounding over the next couple of years,
(31:50):
there are a couple of factors at play, you know,
that that could really help. I know it's going to
sound a little bit of strange, you know when when
you think of g deer, you think of you know,
big tractors. But there is a bit of an AI element,
smart technology, you know, in some of their agricultural equipment
(32:11):
that could help farmers wind up knowing where exactly in
a more precise way to be spraying fertilizer for example.
That's potentially a boost for deer. And you know, I
think there's the hope that you know, you know, China
US trade relations will stabilize after some of the tough
(32:33):
talk between Trump and She and that you know, China
obviously could be a very big purchaser of deer equipment,
you know, given soybeans.
Speaker 2 (32:45):
When we look at deer and the construction side of things,
you know, what exactly does that side of their business
look like and can it offset some of the farming side.
Speaker 8 (32:56):
Yeah, I mean, Caterpillar has obviously been a nominal stock,
so deer does compete to some extent, not as much,
but you know, there is the construction element as well
that can help offset some potential weakness in agriculture. You know,
So I think that is you're right, a potential bowl
(33:19):
case for deer stock as well, even if the agricultural
law market doesn't redound as quickly as some analysts would hope.
Speaker 2 (33:28):
And in terms of Deer and you know, kind of
looking at where they may expand into. Obviously, look there's
been there's a company that is, you know, a mainstay
in you know, any any you know, you go through,
you know, any kind of community. You've got deer tractors,
you know out there. They're you know big obviously in construction.
(33:48):
But is there anything that they're trying to do that's
new as far as new business lines they may be
trying to break into.
Speaker 8 (33:55):
Yeah, I don't know if necessarily Deer is the type
of company that you're you're going to say, would really
you know, benefit from from new business lines per se.
I think it's really more about modernization of the equipment.
They are going to be spending a lot to upgrade
(34:17):
manufacturing and assembly line so that the equipment is better.
Speaker 3 (34:23):
And I think.
Speaker 5 (34:23):
That's you know, really the case with a.
Speaker 8 (34:27):
Company and industrial company like Deer that you're hoping that
through technology they are able to more efficiently produce the
equipment as opposed to say Deer looking to enter a
brand new market per se market segment.
Speaker 2 (34:43):
Very good, Paul, appreciate you joining us today. Thank you
so much for the time, and we will catch up
with you soon.
Speaker 8 (34:51):
Yeah, definitely have a good Thanksgiving everyone, And yeah, I
guess we'll talk in December.
Speaker 2 (34:54):
Absolutely, you too, Paul, and yeah, we will definitely catch
up in December. That is paul A Monica from Barons
talking about Dear Mike. What else do we have that
we haven't gotten through today?
Speaker 4 (35:07):
This is a few weeks old now, but the alligator
rescued from the Charles River in Boston has made national
news because thank god, alligators don't belong in the city
of Boston. Two things that I will just say about this. One,
if our environment is changing enough for alligators to survive
(35:28):
in Boston, then I'm moving to either Alaska or Canada.
Speaker 3 (35:32):
Two.
Speaker 4 (35:33):
An alligator was discovered in Chicago back in twenty nineteen
and they gave it the excellent name Chance the Snapper.
That is good, And I'm just really disappointed that we
haven't come up with a good nickname for this gator
that we discovered in Boston. There's got to be some
good dropkick Murphy's Aerosmith Carr's nickname that we can come
(35:58):
up with here, because thus far I've I'm up with
nothing and nobody else has either, and I find that
genuinely disappointing. But I live very close to the Charles River,
and when I initially read this story, not knowing that, yeah,
some duf has probably let a pet out.
Speaker 3 (36:13):
I had some moments of fear.
Speaker 4 (36:17):
Then I saw it and it's it's tiny, It's like
the size of a water bottle, and it's really cute.
Speaker 2 (36:21):
So I wasn't I'm trying to I'm trying to think,
like what you would I.
Speaker 4 (36:27):
Was tossing into AI and I'll tell you they came
Gemini came up with nothing good for me?
Speaker 5 (36:32):
What can you give me some of the bad examples?
Speaker 4 (36:36):
We had Arrow Snapper as a play on Arrowsmith Charles Krock.
Speaker 3 (36:44):
There was one, Yeah, just really nothing, nothing all that solid.
Speaker 2 (36:50):
Yeah, I'm trying to think if there's anything that you
could that you could do there, But.
Speaker 5 (36:55):
I'm kind of drawing a blank. Yeah, is there anything really?
Speaker 2 (37:00):
Like for some reason, I don't know, Like Matt Damon
kind of gives me alligator vibes, Mmm, Like, is there anything.
Speaker 6 (37:06):
That you can do there Altho. I know we have
to explore that. Why Why does Matt Damon give you
alligator VI?
Speaker 2 (37:12):
I don't know, like I just feel like something like
does his face kind of like alligatory sometimes?
Speaker 3 (37:17):
No?
Speaker 4 (37:18):
No, no, yeah, I mean Marky Mark ben Affleck. If
anybody has any good gator nicknames based on famous Bostonians,
we would really know.
Speaker 5 (37:27):
There's there's no good names that like rhyme with.
Speaker 2 (37:30):
There's nothing good that rhymes with gator, like I'm going through, Yeah,
like Damon, a fleck, bill Burra.
Speaker 4 (37:35):
Could be based on its sharp teeth or the fact
that they bite. You know, there's other things about gators
that we can feature here, but Chance the Snapper is
definitely coming up with the wins.
Speaker 3 (37:45):
So good job, Chicago, you have us peace.
Speaker 2 (37:47):
Markets have taken a meaningful term positive. The Dow is
now up more than five hundred points, SMP's up more
than one percent, NASDAC up about one hundred and seventy.
Speaker 5 (37:55):
Hope you all have a great weekend.
Speaker 2 (37:57):
We'll see you back here on Monday.
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