October 20, 2025 • 38 mins
Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong discuss what US inflation data could show when it is finally released. Annemarie Conte (Wirecutter) joins the show to chat about navigating around tariffs for your holiday shopping. Companies are blaming AI for job cuts. Critics say it’s a ‘good excuse’. When do Roth conversions make sense for older people? Restaurants are pitching water on fine dining menus. The best and worst months to buy a house — the difference could save you $23,000.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Financial Exchange is produced by Money Matters Radio and
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(00:20):
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(00:42):
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heroes by visiting dav five K dot Boston and making
a donation today. This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck
(01:05):
Zada and Mike Armstrong.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
Chuck, Mike Tucker with you, and as we kick off
another week here, we've got stocks looking awfully nice, at
least in the actocate they're looking awfully nice. Take a
look around major markets and what we are seeing as
a P five hundred up one percent, about sixty seven points.
(01:30):
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up three hundred and
eighty four points, are about point eighty three percent, and
the NASDAK composite is up about one point four percent
three hundred and sixteen points. So all major US indices
are in the green. We got the ten year treasury
back down below four percent again at three point nine
nine nine. Yep, that's three point nine nine nine to
(01:53):
quote nine. Thank you, Tucker. I knew you were gonna
be right there with it. I appreciate that. And so
we get the ten year treasury below four percent. Very
very briefly, Uh, the US dollar index, Mike, how do
you feel about adding the dollar index to what we
talk about at you know, the start of a show, if.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
We're going to we need some people to have some
context for it, because what do you mean, it's moving worse?
Speaker 2 (02:20):
Yeah? I got that, but you know, people will get
it as they go. I mean, you know, we you
build the familiarity, the continuity, it's it's you know, it's
a relationship business, you know. Sure Dollar Index is at
ninety eight point twenty nine, up point one percent of dollars,
strengthening just a touch today. Despite that, Gold up three
and a quarter percent to forty three forty nine and
(02:42):
ten cents up one hundred and thirty five dollars today.
Despite that's still not at a new all time high.
We get a little bit more room to go until
we get there. But gold is back on track today
after a little bit of a pullback on Friday. So
that's what's going on in major markets. Mike, let's talk
a little bit about this piece from the Financial Times
(03:03):
to kick things off here.
Speaker 3 (03:05):
Yeah, so inflation data going to finally be released here.
We've been dealing with inflation over this year that's been
hovering right around three percent. We were but weaker at
the beginning of the year, weaker meaning better, and it's
heated up accelerated a little bit through the spring and
into the summer here, So we're going to be getting
(03:26):
this reading what is it Friday of this week, chuck. Yeah,
it's going to be Friday, So Friday this week we'll
get this reading. My anticipation would be right around three
percent on CPI. I'm going to pull up my numbers.
Do you know where we were on the most recent
reading for CPI?
Speaker 2 (03:39):
Are we talking monthly or annually? That you want either either?
In both? Actually, yeah, I got both for you. So
CPI was at point four percent for the month and
two point nine two percent year over year. Right core
CPI was point three to five percent for the month
and three point one one percent year over year.
Speaker 3 (03:57):
So we have been showing a general acceleration. The questions
that I continue to have, hey does that continue? We're
clearly seeing weakness on the part of some consumers, so
maybe they're not able to fork over these prices at
this stage, but that hasn't really prevented prices from continue
to climb through July and August. And you know the
question that really everybody's trying to answer with this, and
(04:19):
we see a lot of people dissecting the CPI for
this reason, is the tariff piece showing up in any
reality here. It's been admittedly tough for anyone to really
put their finger on oh yeah, clearly tariffs are affecting
this price point for these goods. It's not been, it's
not been a really easy thing to put together with
(04:41):
that data.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
No, I mean no one. You don't get an itemized price,
which is like, hey, you're buying a car, this is
how much you paid for the aluminum, and here was
the tariffs. This is how much you paid for the
steal here.
Speaker 3 (04:53):
Remember when Amazon wanted to do that for about two hours, Yeah,
until the President called up.
Speaker 2 (04:59):
Jeff, Yeah, it was. It was a very very very
short lived move by Amazon to do that. So I
think that when when we look at this ultimately the
piece that is concerning to me on the inflation front,
everyone who's listening in their car right now, which is
what percent of our listeners do you think are in
the car right now? Sixty three? I was gonna say
(05:21):
eighty one. In any case, everyone who's listening right now,
even if you're not in the car, if you've been
in a car recently, you drive around and you say, hey,
gas is cheaper than it was a year ago. Gas
is cheaper than it was a month ago. Gas prices
are coming down. We see this, by the way, with
the TRIPAA national average for gas prices three h three
(05:43):
and six tenths of ascent. That's down fifteen cents in
the last month. Wow. So gas prices are down even
you know, you look at most of last year, they
were in the three forty three fifty range, down about
ten percent from there. So here's the part that's concerning
to me, Michael. And you know when I say, Michael,
it's serious stuff. It's got today. Actually, yeah, you know,
(06:04):
here's here's the part that concerns me. We're seeing three
percent inflation at a time when gas prices are down
ten percent year over year. Can we expect gas prices
to fall ten percent every year?
Speaker 4 (06:17):
I would think not.
Speaker 3 (06:18):
No, you would likely eventually reach a point where producers
just throw their hands in the air.
Speaker 2 (06:24):
I mean, yes, we might already be there. You might
you might be seeing that based on like I talk
with my buddies that work down in the Gulf and
they're like, yeah, the rigs aren't you know, quite in
the high demand they were at you know, back when
you know oil was you know, trad in eighty ninety
dollars a barrel, and like that's what you would expect.
It's supply and demand. So I think when I look
(06:48):
at this, my concern is, Hey, we've got these questions
about the US economy right now, hiring, slow, housing, slow,
like we've covered them at length. When these problems resolve,
because they will not every problem lasts forever, like no
problem lasts forever. When these problems problems resolve and things
pick up further, what does that do to oil prices?
(07:13):
And what does that in turn due to inflation that
is at three percent even with falling oil prices.
Speaker 4 (07:19):
Yeah, that's the question.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
It's not a problem for today, but it is a
problem probably for the back half of next year into
twenty twenty seven.
Speaker 3 (07:28):
Yeah, I mean, look, the other important question here is
how long can consumers support these prices. It's been a
question of the top ten percent, and to me, the
answer is entirely dependent on that wealth effect. Right, if
the stock market takes a big hit, then they are
not going to be spending in the way that they
have been. And maybe inflation isn't a problem, but it's
(07:51):
very difficult for me to see a situation where inflation
now gets below that like two for any long period
of time below two seven five without a pretty ugly
recession or market fall.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
Yeah, it's kind of the way it feels to me.
I think that's a fair way to look at it.
Let's take a quick break here. When we return, we're
gonna be joined by Anne Marie Kanti from Wirecutter talking
about navigating tariffs this holiday season. Will also do a
little bit of trivia as well.
Speaker 1 (08:22):
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Speaker 5 (08:56):
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Speaker 2 (09:30):
As promised, We're now joined by Anne Marie Conte from
Wirecutter here to talk a little bit about holidays, shopping
season and how do you navigate prices in the wake
of tariffs that may be influencing them. Anne Marie, thank
you so much for joining us today.
Speaker 6 (09:47):
Oh, I'm thrilled to be here. Thanks for having me.
Speaker 2 (09:50):
First question that I have, do we have any you know,
comparisons of pricing from earlier in the year to now
on items that's see just where we might be seeing
tear of pressure for consumer related goods. Yes.
Speaker 6 (10:06):
So, when tariffs were first announced and it was sort
of an ever changing landscape, Wirecutter decided to pull forty
picks that we know and love, and we're across categories
and we're a mix of householdhold items and gifts and
all sorts of things, and we started tracking those for
(10:27):
sixty days and so we wrote a story at that
time that really said, oh, prices haven't gone up as
much as we thought, and there were a few reasons
for that at the time, and then we continued tracking them.
So we have been tracking these products over that time period,
and so now we have assessed our follow up of
(10:48):
where we are now and the answer is still things
have not jumped as much as we expected. Now I'm
not talking about groceries. I'm not talking about vehicles or
things like that. I'm talking about specific consumer goods that
people would purchase to be.
Speaker 2 (11:06):
There for example or two, just just so that people can,
you know, kind of see what we're talking about.
Speaker 6 (11:11):
Yeah, so we definitely saw something spike individually, but across
the board we didn't see a lot of change. So
one of our hybrid mattress picks, that price went up
because it uses steel coils. But we saw in other
products prices went up a little bit to account for tariffs,
(11:34):
and others went more more broadly. So that could be
anything from sheets or colored pencils or candles, items like
that where they didn't increase much at all, or if
they did, it wasn't as significant as I think had
been predicted.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
So Let's say that someone is trying to go through
and do some holiday shopping right now, Let's say that
they want to track prices the same way that you have.
What's out there for the average person to use so
they can figure out, Hey, am I actually getting a
good deal on Black Friday? Or is this not really
much of a discount from the normal price.
Speaker 6 (12:16):
Yeah, there are several shopping tools. There's Kipa and Camel
Camel Camel, and those two services will allow you to
see the price history of what they have tracked, generally
on Amazon over time.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
Is there any using those services?
Speaker 6 (12:31):
They do have free versions, and then there's also I
think higher paid tier versions, but the most accessible is
probably Google Shopping and you can input products yourself and
then track those over time. And Amazon also indicates when
something is at the lowest price on thirty days.
Speaker 4 (12:48):
Things like that.
Speaker 6 (12:49):
You have to be careful and you need to track
yourself because what often happens in advance of deal holidays
is that retailers will spike the prices to make the
deals look like better deals, which is why we track
our prices every day of the year, because we want
to see on a macro level, what is the average
(13:09):
price what we call the street price for an item,
so that we can assess if something is an actual
deal or if a price has been inflated prior to
a deal event.
Speaker 2 (13:18):
And Marie, one of the other stories that I've seen
popping up in the last week or two is with
shipping in logistics companies that have been saying, hey, we've
got all kinds of packages coming into the US that
are being delayed coming through customs. Like I've seen ups
saying we're having to like destroy some packages and things
like that, And gosh, I certainly don't want, you know,
Christmas gifts destroyed for you know, my family. How do
(13:41):
I like figure out what things look like from a
shipping perspective, It is challenging.
Speaker 6 (13:46):
There are ways to do that. The best thing to
do is to try to find out by looking at
the product description where the item is coming from. What
happened earlier in the year is that many retailers and
brands imported as much as they could and held it stateside.
So those warehouse stocks are starting to deplete. So we
(14:07):
are seeing it increase in more of these delays in
items coming into the US. This just happened to me
I had ordered something it was coming from China, and
it showed up as having arrived on the same day
it departed from China, so it definitely was not on
my doorstep at that time. We've also noticed that you
(14:32):
might see people talking about tariff bills, unexpected tariff bills
that they've received. Wirecutter orders thousands of products throughout the year,
and we've really only received a handful of additional tariff bills.
Where FedEx or ups comes to your door and says
we will not release this package unless you pay us.
It's often been around the thirty dollars range of tax
(14:55):
in taxes to release that product. So we haven't seen
that a as common as you might be seeing out
on the internet, but it definitely does happen.
Speaker 2 (15:05):
What other tips might you have for people that are
trying to navigate this holiday shopping season as it relates
to these issues.
Speaker 6 (15:13):
I think you really need to shop creatively if you
do want to purchase something for someone that price tracking
is incredibly important, but also there are other ways to
purchase products. There are especially higher end items. If you're
looking for something that's fairly luxury, it might be available
on eBay in excellent condition, and so we found that
(15:34):
with one of our beautiful dance bowl picks. You can
find that for practically a quarter of the price on eBay.
You can also buy gifts at the grocery store, you
can buy gifts at high end pharmacies. There's a lot
of different ways to make these purchases, and I think
the most important thing is to just think ahead and
(15:55):
be thoughtful and be a little bit creative about what
you're purchasing.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
Good, Amory, we appreciate you joining us today. Thank you
so much for the information, and we will catch up
with you soon.
Speaker 4 (16:07):
Thanks.
Speaker 6 (16:07):
Sounds good.
Speaker 2 (16:08):
That is Amory Conti from the Wirecutter talking about their
guide to navigating tariffs this holiday season.
Speaker 5 (16:16):
All right, time for trivia here on the Financial Exchange
and on this bit day. Back in nineteen fifty five,
The Return of the King, the third and final volume
of The Lord of the Rings by J. R. R. Tolkien,
was published in two thousand and three. The Return of
the King made its way to theaters across the globe.
At the two thousand and four Academy Awards, the Return
(16:39):
of the King was nominated for eleven oscars. So our
trivia question today how many oscars did the Return of
the King win? Once again? How many oscars did the
Return of the King win? Be the second person today
to text us at six one seven three six two
(16:59):
thirteen eight with the correct answer, and you win a
Financial Exchange Show t shirt.
Speaker 2 (17:04):
Once again.
Speaker 5 (17:04):
The second correct response to text us to the number
six one seven three six two thirteen eighty five will
win that T shirt. See complete contest rules at Financial
Exchange Show dot com.
Speaker 2 (17:16):
PCENCNBC. My companies are blaming AI for job cuts. Critics say,
it's a good excuse your thoughts.
Speaker 3 (17:24):
Well, first, I want to start with the premise of
the story, which I'll just quote a sentence here from
tech to airlines. Large global companies have been slashing staff
as the real world impact of artificial intelligence plays out,
spooking employees. I'm going to start with the fact that
we are not at a high level of employee turnover,
(17:44):
no matter which way you cut the data right now.
Speaker 2 (17:47):
No, it's not like we've seen any uptick in the
layoff rate given all of this chatter.
Speaker 3 (17:54):
So CNBC does point out some companies that have laid
off employees. Thethansa eliminated fourth jobs Salesforce announced that they're
going to do it, Klarna and others. But I want
to be very clear that in spite of these announcements,
when you look at the broad based data on this
economy right now, we are not seeing an increased pace
(18:15):
of layoffs compared to this time last year or any
other normal economy. Do I buy the premise that, basically
their argument is it's really easy to say, either we're
not filling that role or we're firing that employee because
we no longer need them, and ooh, look at us,
it's all because of artificial intelligence. I do buy that
(18:38):
as a premise, but I think it probably has more
to do with the pace of hiring right now than
it does the pace of firing.
Speaker 2 (18:45):
Yeah, I think so. Here here's the interesting thing that
we've seen. If you go back almost three years ago,
end of twenty two, which is like this is when AI,
like generative AI kicked off. Yep, really what I talking about.
That was the end of twenty two, which was when
chat GPT was released. The layoffs rate is the exact
(19:08):
same as it was in January of twenty three. The
hire's rate is down about twenty five percent, and the
quits rate is down about thirty percent. Right is that AI?
It doesn't seem like it based on how those three
numbers have moved. It's much more companies just slowing hiring
(19:30):
and transitions overall. Quick break Trive Answers.
Speaker 1 (19:33):
Next, bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio.
Every day. It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange
Radio Network. Time now for Wall Street. Watch a complete
look at what's moving market so far today right here
(19:54):
on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 5 (19:56):
Market's in positive territory as traders turn the aged on
a new week and a wait a new batch of
third quarter earnings. Wall Street's also rating for a significant
inflation reading coming ahead here on Friday, when the CPI
report is unveiled. Right now, the Dow is up by
eight tens of one percent, or three hundred and sixty
(20:18):
nine points, SMP five hundred up just over one percent,
Hire is sixty seven points, NASDAC now up one point
four percent or three hundred and fifteen points higher. Russell
two thousand and up one point six percent. Tenyure Treasure
reeled down one basis point at three point nine to
nine to seven percent. Crew to oiled down about three
(20:39):
coarters of percent, rating at fifty seven dollars in eleven
cents a barrel.
Speaker 2 (20:43):
Well.
Speaker 5 (20:43):
A widespread outage linked to Amazon's web services has impacted
several companies this morning, including Amazon, Snapchat, Disney Plus, Reddit, Coinbase,
and Robinhood. Airline websites including Delta and United were also
among those impacted. However, many sites are still seeing signs
now of recovery. Amazon shares are up about three quarters
(21:05):
of a percent. Meanwhile, Cleveland Cliff stock is rallying twenty
four percent after the steel company b third quarter expectations.
The company also issued Capital's expenditures guidance of around five
hundred and twenty five million dollars for the year, less
than a prior forecast of six hundred million dollars. Elsewhere,
shares in Cooper Companies climbing over four percent now after
(21:28):
Reuter's reported that activist investor Jana Partners has built a
stake in the medical device maker, Bank of America upgraded
AMD's price target to three hundred dollars per share from
two hundred and fifty dollars a share. AMD stock is
up nearly four percent now and taking a look at
the early earnings calendar for this week. Tomorrow, we'll see
(21:49):
results from ge Aerospace, Coca Cola, Philip Morris, and RTX
ahead of the opening bell, followed by Netflix after the
closing bell. On Wednesday, we'll see Thermo Fisher eighteen ahead
of the open, followed by Tesla, SAP and IBM after
the closing bell. Thursday, we'll see results from T Mobile, Intel,
Union Pacific, and Honeywell. And on Friday, we'll have Procter
(22:12):
and Gamble and Santa FIV report their third quarter results.
I'm Tucker Silva and that is Wall Street Watch. And
in the previous segment we asked the trivia question how
many oscars did the Return of the King win? That
will be eleven. Mark from Newton, Mass is our winner today,
taking home a Financial Eks Shane Show t shirt. Congrats
to Mark, and we played trivia every day here in
(22:33):
the Financial Exchange. See complete contest rules at Financial Exchange
Show dot com.
Speaker 2 (22:38):
A couple in their eighties wants to do Wroth conversions.
Should they? It's an interesting question.
Speaker 3 (22:44):
Wall Street Journal has a piece on this exact subject
today and they talked to a financial planner about it,
and it caught my attention. I think, if you're considering
doing roth conversions in your eighties, it's probably for one reason,
which is you want to lower the tax burden for
your kids.
Speaker 2 (23:00):
Can you think of any other reason to do it?
Speaker 3 (23:03):
No?
Speaker 2 (23:03):
I mean, realistically, if you look at you know, estimated lifespans,
even you know, once you've lived into your eighties, they're
typically not long enough for to you know, make things
up there. The only place where you can maybe make
a case is if there's a big age difference, like
if one's like eighty nine and one's eighty one, you say, okay,
the eighty nine year old has a lot of the uh,
(23:23):
you know, retirement assets. And the worry is, you know,
leaving a single spouse with higher you with narrower tax
brackets means that the tax burden could go up. But
even there, you got to you know, really consider the
tax code and be judicious about it, because you could
easily see a situation where you get too aggressive there
and don't really get a benefit.
Speaker 3 (23:43):
One item that people often miss about, you know, later
life and rock conversions and their iras this couple mentioned
in the article, they're worried about what happens if one
of us becomes incapacitated or dies, and I want to
focus on that capacity piece for a moment here. There's
been a number of studies about this. You can go
look at Boston College. Actually it kind of does a
(24:04):
lot of the preeminent research on long term care. But
a lot of folks, if you're a married couple in
your eighties, good chance that you're gonna live quite a while,
and a lot of folks do end up incurring costs
because of that. And if they are, you know, medical costs,
say you're in a nursing home or you know one
of those scenarios that people really worry about, and you're
incurring a lot of costs, you're in most cases not
(24:25):
paying a whole lot in taxes because those become fully
tax deductible to you. Sure, And so I bring that
up to people like I wouldn't worry. So, you know,
if your big concern is a nursing home, that's a
big concern to having your plan for it. But I
wouldn't worry about the tax ability of your IRA in
that case because it's going to likely be a non issue.
There are a lot of questions out there about roth
(24:45):
conversions these days.
Speaker 4 (24:46):
It is probably one.
Speaker 3 (24:47):
Of the hottest topics in financial planning, and you know
tax strategies that are out there, but I it's gone
from a point of almost nobody was doing it when
I started my career to sometimes these days people are
doing too much of it. And you have to be
aware of a lot of different factors when it comes
to Wroth conversion strategies. What if I, you know, jack
(25:10):
up my Medicare premium is because of it? Am I
really doing this for myself? Or is it because I'm
working on multi generational planning. If you have questions along
those lines, please get the folks at Armstrong Advisory Group
of call numbers eight hundred three nine.
Speaker 4 (25:24):
Three for zero zero one. We work with clients.
Speaker 3 (25:26):
Every day to strategize around things like their required minimum distributions,
like their Wroth conversions.
Speaker 4 (25:31):
It makes sense make sure that.
Speaker 3 (25:32):
We're taking a long term forward outlook on what comes
next for all of this. Again, if you have questions
like that, you can go to Armstrong Advisory dot com
to book a time for us to call you back,
or the number is eight hundred three nine three for
zero zero one.
Speaker 1 (25:47):
The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult
your own financial tax into state planning advisors before making
any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
advisory services.
Speaker 2 (26:03):
Mike, I saw this story and I had to get
to it. Restaurants are pitching water as a fine dining experience,
but fed's got a hike.
Speaker 4 (26:14):
But like paying for fancy water, what do we like?
Speaker 2 (26:18):
Water menus like bottled water menus and stuff like that
from like Saratoga, and like, oh, you could have this one,
or you could have this one, and this one goes
well with this meal, and this one goes well with
this meal. No, it doesn't. It's water. It's water. H two.
Oh god, are we that bored and dull?
Speaker 5 (26:38):
I'm going to become a water Somalia.
Speaker 4 (26:40):
Can you imagine an aquaya?
Speaker 2 (26:45):
I like it.
Speaker 3 (26:47):
This is not a hit at people that choose to
not consume alcohol or anything like that. That's not what
I'm going for you.
Speaker 2 (26:53):
But.
Speaker 3 (26:55):
Goes well with the RIBBI in terms of your nuanced
water selection that you need to have multiple it's sparkling, bottled,
or tap. Those are your three options. You can usually
do it just two. And that's the extent of your
water options that need to exist. In my humble opinion,
(27:16):
sorry to all the water somlier's out there.
Speaker 2 (27:19):
Now here's the thing, Like Mike, I think we can
all agree though there are waters that taste better and worse. Yeah,
that's fair.
Speaker 3 (27:28):
Yeah, I've had this explain to me, and I'll tell
you when I open up a cold bottle of water,
I don't generally care, but yes, I have heard some
people say, like, oh, I can't drink pulland Springs or
Dasani because of the like I can't stand with some
form of the chemistry in there.
Speaker 2 (27:46):
And I've never really no, no, I don't buy that, but
I do know if I'm ever in the southeastern part
of the United States, Oh, you happen to come across
a bottle of Zephyr Hills, I'm like, run for the
Zephyr Hills, you know, Like stuff's not great, but that's
neither here nor is there.
Speaker 3 (28:02):
Yeah, that's that's an out that one's out there.
Speaker 2 (28:05):
Chuck. Yeah again, Like fed's got a hike if you
got like water menus at restaurants, policies to loose well.
Speaker 3 (28:15):
Then how about just this metric that market Watch has
their eye on. Sales at US bars and restaurants have
risen six and a half percent over the last twelve months,
uh ending in August. We've mentioned this before. That's up
from four point three percent the previous year. And so
whether they are just looking over their water menu, the
fact that sales at bars and restaurants are up six
(28:37):
and a half percent, I mean, other than airline tickets,
I don't think of a whole lot that's more discretionary
than bars and restaurants.
Speaker 5 (28:45):
Can you guys get on the Wall Street Journal right now?
Speaker 2 (28:46):
No, Wall Street Journal has been down for the last hour. Okay, yeah,
they're down. Market Watches down right now. So the AWS
outage is spreading. By the way, Mike, I did confirm
Fidelities getting elevated down detector reports. So is Bank of
America at the moment as well.
Speaker 3 (29:01):
I saw the same. So there goes my theory. So
it's here's the thing about the Internet.
Speaker 2 (29:06):
It's all conted, it's wires man and you know.
Speaker 3 (29:11):
It's what was the center that was just driving the
Internet back in the nineties or something like that. Interconnected tubes,
interconnected tubes. Yeah, now that's that's the soup tubes idea.
But we'll come back to that one quick break here
when we come back.
Speaker 1 (29:28):
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(29:48):
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That's the Financial Exchange weekdays from eleven to noon on
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Speaker 3 (30:12):
Time for a bit of stack Roulette here on the
Financial Exchange. And CNBC has a piece today about the
best and worst months to buy a house, and they're
saying that the difference could save you twenty three thousand dollars.
So here's what they're actually talking about. In January, it
is statistically the cheapest month for home sales, meaning the
(30:33):
price per square foot hits the lowest level in the
month of January which does make some sense given the
fact that most people aren't shopping in January, and if
your home is still for sale in January, it might
speak of some degree of desperation to sell that house.
I would counter with the idea of is this actually useful.
(30:54):
I can think of one group this is actually useful for.
If you are some sort of home flipper or you know,
constantly buying homes to rent out some big real estate tycoon,
then I can see how this would be valuable. But
for the average person who's maybe going to buy two
to three homes in their entire lifetime, I can think
(31:14):
of different things that are more important than trying to
find the deal on the very few properties that are
actually for sale in January. And so if you're out
there waiting to buy that next home because you're waiting
for that stage of life, I cannot say enough that
I think this is a stupid strategy. You should be
focusing on. This is what I need out of a
(31:35):
home where I'm going to spend probably multi decades of
my life, and so these are the number of beds
and baths that I need. This is the neighborhood that
I'm looking for, or the type of neighborhood that I'm
looking for, and most importantly, this is what I can afford.
And if if you find a home that matches those
criteria what I need in the neighborhood that I want,
(31:58):
plus a price point with a monthly payment that I
can actually afford and sustainably afford, like I'm not doing
some sort of crazy balloon payment or adjustable rate mortgage
that could shoot.
Speaker 4 (32:08):
Up in the other direction. Then buy the house.
Speaker 3 (32:11):
Don't wait for it to go on sale in January,
maybe because guess what, it's especially in the market here
in the Northeast, probably going to sell. I think this
might be useful information. Like I said, if you're some
sort of home flipper and you actually have the ability
to time out things, then yeah, sure, okay, maybe this
is useful. But I see pieces like this all the time, like, oh,
(32:31):
here's how you should buy your first home. It's like, no,
probably not. Do you want to relocate your kids midway
through the school year as another factor to consider on
this one. So, of course prices are lowest in January.
Don't use that as a guideline for where to buy
your home. If you have an investment property and that's
your business. Maybe that's a different story, Tucker. What you
have for sacred life?
Speaker 5 (32:51):
Well, Mike, you have kids. I have kids, and I
got to ask the question, are they in the frenzy
that is and continues to be for decades of Pokemon?
Speaker 2 (33:01):
No the boo boos.
Speaker 3 (33:03):
Yes, but Pokemon, at least with my kids, is relegated
to the boys in their class and not as enthusiastic
amongst the girls.
Speaker 5 (33:11):
Okay, So when I was growing up in uh, I
don't know, second or third grade and trying to fit
in awkwardly, I was forced into looking into buying Pokemon
cards because all the cool kids had it.
Speaker 2 (33:24):
Correct.
Speaker 5 (33:24):
I went to a KB Toys and I went to
the counter and I asked for Pokemon set. I had
no idea what they were really and the guy just
pretty much laughed in my face because they were just
sold out. Well it continues to be the case still
to this day. Uh And not just Pokemon.
Speaker 2 (33:41):
Love artificial shortages like this, yeah, good moves.
Speaker 5 (33:45):
Not just Pokemon. The sports, true sports cards are are booming.
Speaker 2 (33:50):
Now.
Speaker 5 (33:50):
We've seen all the the Tom Brady investment in card Vault,
and you've seen those card Vault shops.
Speaker 3 (33:58):
I knew about the Pokemon thing. I was not familiar
with trading cards for sports.
Speaker 5 (34:02):
Again, Taylor Swift is also in that category as well.
Speaker 3 (34:06):
And what do you mean what does she do? Apparently
category I'm seeing now Taylor Swift card. But their stats
on it apparently well, I don't know if there's stats
on it, but there are some sort of cards.
Speaker 4 (34:16):
How much money she made on the Aras tour.
Speaker 5 (34:19):
It's just on the back, just like a you know,
oh yo batting average.
Speaker 3 (34:24):
I would love some awesome t Swifts to be printed
on a card.
Speaker 2 (34:28):
Well.
Speaker 5 (34:29):
This according to CNBC, sales of collectible trading cards like
Pokemon and sports sets are surging, with Target reporting a
seventy percent year to date increase in expecting over one
billion dollars in annual revenue from that category. And you
see more and more retailers like Target and Walmart trying
(34:50):
to increase their inventory of these trading cards, whether it's
sports or in pop culture or entertainment ahead of the
holiday season.
Speaker 4 (34:58):
Here, I'll tell.
Speaker 2 (34:59):
You what you all right?
Speaker 4 (35:00):
I'm what's your name? It's very Thomas, Thomas and Charles.
Speaker 3 (35:06):
The water story was Chuck's over exuberant story.
Speaker 4 (35:11):
This is mine fed's got a hike.
Speaker 3 (35:12):
If if we're getting back into you know, infatuation with
what's next, NFTs are we're gonna get get to see
a JPEG image computer generated generated image.
Speaker 4 (35:23):
See it surge again, Like this.
Speaker 3 (35:25):
Is not the type of stuff that you see in
an economy that's on the cusp of recessions. So FED,
who is probably going to cut rates in a week,
beware of stuff like this. Speaking of things that are
going to drive prices higher. Runaway insurance costs are surging
across the nation. We've covered this quite a bit. Some
(35:46):
of the worst rates increases that we have seen include Colorado, Louisiana, Florida, Minnesota.
This is something that is honestly equally dispersed across the
country and somewhat random in terms of where it goes. Currently,
eleven states regulate the ability for insurance companies to increase
(36:08):
rates on their homeowners. So the states include Alabama, California, Hawaii, Mississippi,
New Jersey, North Carolina, North Dakota. They can only reject
them if it's an increase of five percent or more
in North Dakota, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, where it has to
be seven percent or more Washington and West Virginia, and
you'd better believe that lawmakers in other states are going
(36:31):
to jump on this bandwagon. And here is lawmakers, I
think frequently come up with solutions to problems that are
not wise economically. But I can assure you there is
only one eventual outcome should state ensure state insurance regulators
refuse price increases, which is what is happening across the
(36:54):
country right now, is insurance companies are you know, jacking
rates up ten fifteen percent in many cases, and the
regulators are saying, no, pump the brakes. We're not gonna
let you get away with it. There's only one outcome there,
which is insurers are going to disappear from that market.
So what do price caps?
Speaker 2 (37:13):
Do? They lead to shortages?
Speaker 3 (37:15):
We are very familiar with this when it comes to
things like rent control or price caps on groceries. We
are less familiar with it when it comes to insurance.
But the same thesis applies. So again, I know, nobody
likes to see their insurance rates go up. It's not
happening because companies are greedy. Of course, companies are greedy,
but it's not the cause. It's not the root cause.
(37:37):
Behind rates going up. The root cause is the risk
is getting a lot higher for all of us from
homeowners and car insurance, car insurance both because the replacement
costs are higher and more natural disasters. And so guess
what rates are going up, And if your state tries
to limit it, then you're going to see those insurers
step out of those states like you've seen in the
health insurance and auto and home insurance rates. All the
(38:00):
time we have for the financial exchange today, but we're
back at it tomorrow. Dow, SMP and NAZAC all strongly
in positive territory. We'll have a full recap for you,
amongst other things, tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (38:09):
Tune in
The Financial Exchange is produced by Money Matters Radio and
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(01:05):
Zada and Mike Armstrong.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
Chuck, Mike Tucker with you, and as we kick off
another week here, we've got stocks looking awfully nice, at
least in the actocate they're looking awfully nice. Take a
look around major markets and what we are seeing as
a P five hundred up one percent, about sixty seven points.
(01:30):
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up three hundred and
eighty four points, are about point eighty three percent, and
the NASDAK composite is up about one point four percent
three hundred and sixteen points. So all major US indices
are in the green. We got the ten year treasury
back down below four percent again at three point nine
nine nine. Yep, that's three point nine nine nine to
(01:53):
quote nine. Thank you, Tucker. I knew you were gonna
be right there with it. I appreciate that. And so
we get the ten year treasury below four percent. Very
very briefly, Uh, the US dollar index, Mike, how do
you feel about adding the dollar index to what we
talk about at you know, the start of a show, if.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
We're going to we need some people to have some
context for it, because what do you mean, it's moving worse?
Speaker 2 (02:20):
Yeah? I got that, but you know, people will get
it as they go. I mean, you know, we you
build the familiarity, the continuity, it's it's you know, it's
a relationship business, you know. Sure Dollar Index is at
ninety eight point twenty nine, up point one percent of dollars,
strengthening just a touch today. Despite that, Gold up three
and a quarter percent to forty three forty nine and
(02:42):
ten cents up one hundred and thirty five dollars today.
Despite that's still not at a new all time high.
We get a little bit more room to go until
we get there. But gold is back on track today
after a little bit of a pullback on Friday. So
that's what's going on in major markets. Mike, let's talk
a little bit about this piece from the Financial Times
(03:03):
to kick things off here.
Speaker 3 (03:05):
Yeah, so inflation data going to finally be released here.
We've been dealing with inflation over this year that's been
hovering right around three percent. We were but weaker at
the beginning of the year, weaker meaning better, and it's
heated up accelerated a little bit through the spring and
into the summer here, So we're going to be getting
(03:26):
this reading what is it Friday of this week, chuck. Yeah,
it's going to be Friday, So Friday this week we'll
get this reading. My anticipation would be right around three
percent on CPI. I'm going to pull up my numbers.
Do you know where we were on the most recent
reading for CPI?
Speaker 2 (03:39):
Are we talking monthly or annually? That you want either either?
In both? Actually, yeah, I got both for you. So
CPI was at point four percent for the month and
two point nine two percent year over year. Right core
CPI was point three to five percent for the month
and three point one one percent year over year.
Speaker 3 (03:57):
So we have been showing a general acceleration. The questions
that I continue to have, hey does that continue? We're
clearly seeing weakness on the part of some consumers, so
maybe they're not able to fork over these prices at
this stage, but that hasn't really prevented prices from continue
to climb through July and August. And you know the
question that really everybody's trying to answer with this, and
(04:19):
we see a lot of people dissecting the CPI for
this reason, is the tariff piece showing up in any
reality here. It's been admittedly tough for anyone to really
put their finger on oh yeah, clearly tariffs are affecting
this price point for these goods. It's not been, it's
not been a really easy thing to put together with
(04:41):
that data.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
No, I mean no one. You don't get an itemized price,
which is like, hey, you're buying a car, this is
how much you paid for the aluminum, and here was
the tariffs. This is how much you paid for the
steal here.
Speaker 3 (04:53):
Remember when Amazon wanted to do that for about two hours, Yeah,
until the President called up.
Speaker 2 (04:59):
Jeff, Yeah, it was. It was a very very very
short lived move by Amazon to do that. So I
think that when when we look at this ultimately the
piece that is concerning to me on the inflation front,
everyone who's listening in their car right now, which is
what percent of our listeners do you think are in
the car right now? Sixty three? I was gonna say
(05:21):
eighty one. In any case, everyone who's listening right now,
even if you're not in the car, if you've been
in a car recently, you drive around and you say, hey,
gas is cheaper than it was a year ago. Gas
is cheaper than it was a month ago. Gas prices
are coming down. We see this, by the way, with
the TRIPAA national average for gas prices three h three
(05:43):
and six tenths of ascent. That's down fifteen cents in
the last month. Wow. So gas prices are down even
you know, you look at most of last year, they
were in the three forty three fifty range, down about
ten percent from there. So here's the part that's concerning
to me, Michael. And you know when I say, Michael,
it's serious stuff. It's got today. Actually, yeah, you know,
(06:04):
here's here's the part that concerns me. We're seeing three
percent inflation at a time when gas prices are down
ten percent year over year. Can we expect gas prices
to fall ten percent every year?
Speaker 4 (06:17):
I would think not.
Speaker 3 (06:18):
No, you would likely eventually reach a point where producers
just throw their hands in the air.
Speaker 2 (06:24):
I mean, yes, we might already be there. You might
you might be seeing that based on like I talk
with my buddies that work down in the Gulf and
they're like, yeah, the rigs aren't you know, quite in
the high demand they were at you know, back when
you know oil was you know, trad in eighty ninety
dollars a barrel, and like that's what you would expect.
It's supply and demand. So I think when I look
(06:48):
at this, my concern is, Hey, we've got these questions
about the US economy right now, hiring, slow, housing, slow,
like we've covered them at length. When these problems resolve,
because they will not every problem lasts forever, like no
problem lasts forever. When these problems problems resolve and things
pick up further, what does that do to oil prices?
(07:13):
And what does that in turn due to inflation that
is at three percent even with falling oil prices.
Speaker 4 (07:19):
Yeah, that's the question.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
It's not a problem for today, but it is a
problem probably for the back half of next year into
twenty twenty seven.
Speaker 3 (07:28):
Yeah, I mean, look, the other important question here is
how long can consumers support these prices. It's been a
question of the top ten percent, and to me, the
answer is entirely dependent on that wealth effect. Right, if
the stock market takes a big hit, then they are
not going to be spending in the way that they
have been. And maybe inflation isn't a problem, but it's
(07:51):
very difficult for me to see a situation where inflation
now gets below that like two for any long period
of time below two seven five without a pretty ugly
recession or market fall.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
Yeah, it's kind of the way it feels to me.
I think that's a fair way to look at it.
Let's take a quick break here. When we return, we're
gonna be joined by Anne Marie Kanti from Wirecutter talking
about navigating tariffs this holiday season. Will also do a
little bit of trivia as well.
Speaker 1 (08:22):
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Speaker 2 (09:30):
As promised, We're now joined by Anne Marie Conte from
Wirecutter here to talk a little bit about holidays, shopping
season and how do you navigate prices in the wake
of tariffs that may be influencing them. Anne Marie, thank
you so much for joining us today.
Speaker 6 (09:47):
Oh, I'm thrilled to be here. Thanks for having me.
Speaker 2 (09:50):
First question that I have, do we have any you know,
comparisons of pricing from earlier in the year to now
on items that's see just where we might be seeing
tear of pressure for consumer related goods. Yes.
Speaker 6 (10:06):
So, when tariffs were first announced and it was sort
of an ever changing landscape, Wirecutter decided to pull forty
picks that we know and love, and we're across categories
and we're a mix of householdhold items and gifts and
all sorts of things, and we started tracking those for
(10:27):
sixty days and so we wrote a story at that
time that really said, oh, prices haven't gone up as
much as we thought, and there were a few reasons
for that at the time, and then we continued tracking them.
So we have been tracking these products over that time period,
and so now we have assessed our follow up of
(10:48):
where we are now and the answer is still things
have not jumped as much as we expected. Now I'm
not talking about groceries. I'm not talking about vehicles or
things like that. I'm talking about specific consumer goods that
people would purchase to be.
Speaker 2 (11:06):
There for example or two, just just so that people can,
you know, kind of see what we're talking about.
Speaker 6 (11:11):
Yeah, so we definitely saw something spike individually, but across
the board we didn't see a lot of change. So
one of our hybrid mattress picks, that price went up
because it uses steel coils. But we saw in other
products prices went up a little bit to account for tariffs,
(11:34):
and others went more more broadly. So that could be
anything from sheets or colored pencils or candles, items like
that where they didn't increase much at all, or if
they did, it wasn't as significant as I think had
been predicted.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
So Let's say that someone is trying to go through
and do some holiday shopping right now, Let's say that
they want to track prices the same way that you have.
What's out there for the average person to use so
they can figure out, Hey, am I actually getting a
good deal on Black Friday? Or is this not really
much of a discount from the normal price.
Speaker 6 (12:16):
Yeah, there are several shopping tools. There's Kipa and Camel
Camel Camel, and those two services will allow you to
see the price history of what they have tracked, generally
on Amazon over time.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
Is there any using those services?
Speaker 6 (12:31):
They do have free versions, and then there's also I
think higher paid tier versions, but the most accessible is
probably Google Shopping and you can input products yourself and
then track those over time. And Amazon also indicates when
something is at the lowest price on thirty days.
Speaker 4 (12:48):
Things like that.
Speaker 6 (12:49):
You have to be careful and you need to track
yourself because what often happens in advance of deal holidays
is that retailers will spike the prices to make the
deals look like better deals, which is why we track
our prices every day of the year, because we want
to see on a macro level, what is the average
(13:09):
price what we call the street price for an item,
so that we can assess if something is an actual
deal or if a price has been inflated prior to
a deal event.
Speaker 2 (13:18):
And Marie, one of the other stories that I've seen
popping up in the last week or two is with
shipping in logistics companies that have been saying, hey, we've
got all kinds of packages coming into the US that
are being delayed coming through customs. Like I've seen ups
saying we're having to like destroy some packages and things
like that, And gosh, I certainly don't want, you know,
Christmas gifts destroyed for you know, my family. How do
(13:41):
I like figure out what things look like from a
shipping perspective, It is challenging.
Speaker 6 (13:46):
There are ways to do that. The best thing to
do is to try to find out by looking at
the product description where the item is coming from. What
happened earlier in the year is that many retailers and
brands imported as much as they could and held it stateside.
So those warehouse stocks are starting to deplete. So we
(14:07):
are seeing it increase in more of these delays in
items coming into the US. This just happened to me
I had ordered something it was coming from China, and
it showed up as having arrived on the same day
it departed from China, so it definitely was not on
my doorstep at that time. We've also noticed that you
(14:32):
might see people talking about tariff bills, unexpected tariff bills
that they've received. Wirecutter orders thousands of products throughout the year,
and we've really only received a handful of additional tariff bills.
Where FedEx or ups comes to your door and says
we will not release this package unless you pay us.
It's often been around the thirty dollars range of tax
(14:55):
in taxes to release that product. So we haven't seen
that a as common as you might be seeing out
on the internet, but it definitely does happen.
Speaker 2 (15:05):
What other tips might you have for people that are
trying to navigate this holiday shopping season as it relates
to these issues.
Speaker 6 (15:13):
I think you really need to shop creatively if you
do want to purchase something for someone that price tracking
is incredibly important, but also there are other ways to
purchase products. There are especially higher end items. If you're
looking for something that's fairly luxury, it might be available
on eBay in excellent condition, and so we found that
(15:34):
with one of our beautiful dance bowl picks. You can
find that for practically a quarter of the price on eBay.
You can also buy gifts at the grocery store, you
can buy gifts at high end pharmacies. There's a lot
of different ways to make these purchases, and I think
the most important thing is to just think ahead and
(15:55):
be thoughtful and be a little bit creative about what
you're purchasing.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
Good, Amory, we appreciate you joining us today. Thank you
so much for the information, and we will catch up
with you soon.
Speaker 4 (16:07):
Thanks.
Speaker 6 (16:07):
Sounds good.
Speaker 2 (16:08):
That is Amory Conti from the Wirecutter talking about their
guide to navigating tariffs this holiday season.
Speaker 5 (16:16):
All right, time for trivia here on the Financial Exchange
and on this bit day. Back in nineteen fifty five,
The Return of the King, the third and final volume
of The Lord of the Rings by J. R. R. Tolkien,
was published in two thousand and three. The Return of
the King made its way to theaters across the globe.
At the two thousand and four Academy Awards, the Return
(16:39):
of the King was nominated for eleven oscars. So our
trivia question today how many oscars did the Return of
the King win? Once again? How many oscars did the
Return of the King win? Be the second person today
to text us at six one seven three six two
(16:59):
thirteen eight with the correct answer, and you win a
Financial Exchange Show t shirt.
Speaker 2 (17:04):
Once again.
Speaker 5 (17:04):
The second correct response to text us to the number
six one seven three six two thirteen eighty five will
win that T shirt. See complete contest rules at Financial
Exchange Show dot com.
Speaker 2 (17:16):
PCENCNBC. My companies are blaming AI for job cuts. Critics say,
it's a good excuse your thoughts.
Speaker 3 (17:24):
Well, first, I want to start with the premise of
the story, which I'll just quote a sentence here from
tech to airlines. Large global companies have been slashing staff
as the real world impact of artificial intelligence plays out,
spooking employees. I'm going to start with the fact that
we are not at a high level of employee turnover,
(17:44):
no matter which way you cut the data right now.
Speaker 2 (17:47):
No, it's not like we've seen any uptick in the
layoff rate given all of this chatter.
Speaker 3 (17:54):
So CNBC does point out some companies that have laid
off employees. Thethansa eliminated fourth jobs Salesforce announced that they're
going to do it, Klarna and others. But I want
to be very clear that in spite of these announcements,
when you look at the broad based data on this
economy right now, we are not seeing an increased pace
(18:15):
of layoffs compared to this time last year or any
other normal economy. Do I buy the premise that, basically
their argument is it's really easy to say, either we're
not filling that role or we're firing that employee because
we no longer need them, and ooh, look at us,
it's all because of artificial intelligence. I do buy that
(18:38):
as a premise, but I think it probably has more
to do with the pace of hiring right now than
it does the pace of firing.
Speaker 2 (18:45):
Yeah, I think so. Here here's the interesting thing that
we've seen. If you go back almost three years ago,
end of twenty two, which is like this is when AI,
like generative AI kicked off. Yep, really what I talking about.
That was the end of twenty two, which was when
chat GPT was released. The layoffs rate is the exact
(19:08):
same as it was in January of twenty three. The
hire's rate is down about twenty five percent, and the
quits rate is down about thirty percent. Right is that AI?
It doesn't seem like it based on how those three
numbers have moved. It's much more companies just slowing hiring
(19:30):
and transitions overall. Quick break Trive Answers.
Speaker 1 (19:33):
Next, bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio.
Every day. It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange
Radio Network. Time now for Wall Street. Watch a complete
look at what's moving market so far today right here
(19:54):
on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 5 (19:56):
Market's in positive territory as traders turn the aged on
a new week and a wait a new batch of
third quarter earnings. Wall Street's also rating for a significant
inflation reading coming ahead here on Friday, when the CPI
report is unveiled. Right now, the Dow is up by
eight tens of one percent, or three hundred and sixty
(20:18):
nine points, SMP five hundred up just over one percent,
Hire is sixty seven points, NASDAC now up one point
four percent or three hundred and fifteen points higher. Russell
two thousand and up one point six percent. Tenyure Treasure
reeled down one basis point at three point nine to
nine to seven percent. Crew to oiled down about three
(20:39):
coarters of percent, rating at fifty seven dollars in eleven
cents a barrel.
Speaker 2 (20:43):
Well.
Speaker 5 (20:43):
A widespread outage linked to Amazon's web services has impacted
several companies this morning, including Amazon, Snapchat, Disney Plus, Reddit, Coinbase,
and Robinhood. Airline websites including Delta and United were also
among those impacted. However, many sites are still seeing signs
now of recovery. Amazon shares are up about three quarters
(21:05):
of a percent. Meanwhile, Cleveland Cliff stock is rallying twenty
four percent after the steel company b third quarter expectations.
The company also issued Capital's expenditures guidance of around five
hundred and twenty five million dollars for the year, less
than a prior forecast of six hundred million dollars. Elsewhere,
shares in Cooper Companies climbing over four percent now after
(21:28):
Reuter's reported that activist investor Jana Partners has built a
stake in the medical device maker, Bank of America upgraded
AMD's price target to three hundred dollars per share from
two hundred and fifty dollars a share. AMD stock is
up nearly four percent now and taking a look at
the early earnings calendar for this week. Tomorrow, we'll see
(21:49):
results from ge Aerospace, Coca Cola, Philip Morris, and RTX
ahead of the opening bell, followed by Netflix after the
closing bell. On Wednesday, we'll see Thermo Fisher eighteen ahead
of the open, followed by Tesla, SAP and IBM after
the closing bell. Thursday, we'll see results from T Mobile, Intel,
Union Pacific, and Honeywell. And on Friday, we'll have Procter
(22:12):
and Gamble and Santa FIV report their third quarter results.
I'm Tucker Silva and that is Wall Street Watch. And
in the previous segment we asked the trivia question how
many oscars did the Return of the King win? That
will be eleven. Mark from Newton, Mass is our winner today,
taking home a Financial Eks Shane Show t shirt. Congrats
to Mark, and we played trivia every day here in
(22:33):
the Financial Exchange. See complete contest rules at Financial Exchange
Show dot com.
Speaker 2 (22:38):
A couple in their eighties wants to do Wroth conversions.
Should they? It's an interesting question.
Speaker 3 (22:44):
Wall Street Journal has a piece on this exact subject
today and they talked to a financial planner about it,
and it caught my attention. I think, if you're considering
doing roth conversions in your eighties, it's probably for one reason,
which is you want to lower the tax burden for
your kids.
Speaker 2 (23:00):
Can you think of any other reason to do it?
Speaker 3 (23:03):
No?
Speaker 2 (23:03):
I mean, realistically, if you look at you know, estimated lifespans,
even you know, once you've lived into your eighties, they're
typically not long enough for to you know, make things
up there. The only place where you can maybe make
a case is if there's a big age difference, like
if one's like eighty nine and one's eighty one, you say, okay,
the eighty nine year old has a lot of the uh,
(23:23):
you know, retirement assets. And the worry is, you know,
leaving a single spouse with higher you with narrower tax
brackets means that the tax burden could go up. But
even there, you got to you know, really consider the
tax code and be judicious about it, because you could
easily see a situation where you get too aggressive there
and don't really get a benefit.
Speaker 3 (23:43):
One item that people often miss about, you know, later
life and rock conversions and their iras this couple mentioned
in the article, they're worried about what happens if one
of us becomes incapacitated or dies, and I want to
focus on that capacity piece for a moment here. There's
been a number of studies about this. You can go
look at Boston College. Actually it kind of does a
(24:04):
lot of the preeminent research on long term care. But
a lot of folks, if you're a married couple in
your eighties, good chance that you're gonna live quite a while,
and a lot of folks do end up incurring costs
because of that. And if they are, you know, medical costs,
say you're in a nursing home or you know one
of those scenarios that people really worry about, and you're
incurring a lot of costs, you're in most cases not
(24:25):
paying a whole lot in taxes because those become fully
tax deductible to you. Sure, And so I bring that
up to people like I wouldn't worry. So, you know,
if your big concern is a nursing home, that's a
big concern to having your plan for it. But I
wouldn't worry about the tax ability of your IRA in
that case because it's going to likely be a non issue.
There are a lot of questions out there about roth
(24:45):
conversions these days.
Speaker 4 (24:46):
It is probably one.
Speaker 3 (24:47):
Of the hottest topics in financial planning, and you know
tax strategies that are out there, but I it's gone
from a point of almost nobody was doing it when
I started my career to sometimes these days people are
doing too much of it. And you have to be
aware of a lot of different factors when it comes
to Wroth conversion strategies. What if I, you know, jack
(25:10):
up my Medicare premium is because of it? Am I
really doing this for myself? Or is it because I'm
working on multi generational planning. If you have questions along
those lines, please get the folks at Armstrong Advisory Group
of call numbers eight hundred three nine.
Speaker 4 (25:24):
Three for zero zero one. We work with clients.
Speaker 3 (25:26):
Every day to strategize around things like their required minimum distributions,
like their Wroth conversions.
Speaker 4 (25:31):
It makes sense make sure that.
Speaker 3 (25:32):
We're taking a long term forward outlook on what comes
next for all of this. Again, if you have questions
like that, you can go to Armstrong Advisory dot com
to book a time for us to call you back,
or the number is eight hundred three nine three for
zero zero one.
Speaker 1 (25:47):
The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult
your own financial tax into state planning advisors before making
any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
advisory services.
Speaker 2 (26:03):
Mike, I saw this story and I had to get
to it. Restaurants are pitching water as a fine dining experience,
but fed's got a hike.
Speaker 4 (26:14):
But like paying for fancy water, what do we like?
Speaker 2 (26:18):
Water menus like bottled water menus and stuff like that
from like Saratoga, and like, oh, you could have this one,
or you could have this one, and this one goes
well with this meal, and this one goes well with
this meal. No, it doesn't. It's water. It's water. H two.
Oh god, are we that bored and dull?
Speaker 5 (26:38):
I'm going to become a water Somalia.
Speaker 4 (26:40):
Can you imagine an aquaya?
Speaker 2 (26:45):
I like it.
Speaker 3 (26:47):
This is not a hit at people that choose to
not consume alcohol or anything like that. That's not what
I'm going for you.
Speaker 2 (26:53):
But.
Speaker 3 (26:55):
Goes well with the RIBBI in terms of your nuanced
water selection that you need to have multiple it's sparkling, bottled,
or tap. Those are your three options. You can usually
do it just two. And that's the extent of your
water options that need to exist. In my humble opinion,
(27:16):
sorry to all the water somlier's out there.
Speaker 2 (27:19):
Now here's the thing, Like Mike, I think we can
all agree though there are waters that taste better and worse. Yeah,
that's fair.
Speaker 3 (27:28):
Yeah, I've had this explain to me, and I'll tell
you when I open up a cold bottle of water,
I don't generally care, but yes, I have heard some
people say, like, oh, I can't drink pulland Springs or
Dasani because of the like I can't stand with some
form of the chemistry in there.
Speaker 2 (27:46):
And I've never really no, no, I don't buy that, but
I do know if I'm ever in the southeastern part
of the United States, Oh, you happen to come across
a bottle of Zephyr Hills, I'm like, run for the
Zephyr Hills, you know, Like stuff's not great, but that's
neither here nor is there.
Speaker 3 (28:02):
Yeah, that's that's an out that one's out there.
Speaker 2 (28:05):
Chuck. Yeah again, Like fed's got a hike if you
got like water menus at restaurants, policies to loose well.
Speaker 3 (28:15):
Then how about just this metric that market Watch has
their eye on. Sales at US bars and restaurants have
risen six and a half percent over the last twelve months,
uh ending in August. We've mentioned this before. That's up
from four point three percent the previous year. And so
whether they are just looking over their water menu, the
fact that sales at bars and restaurants are up six
(28:37):
and a half percent, I mean, other than airline tickets,
I don't think of a whole lot that's more discretionary
than bars and restaurants.
Speaker 5 (28:45):
Can you guys get on the Wall Street Journal right now?
Speaker 2 (28:46):
No, Wall Street Journal has been down for the last hour. Okay, yeah,
they're down. Market Watches down right now. So the AWS
outage is spreading. By the way, Mike, I did confirm
Fidelities getting elevated down detector reports. So is Bank of
America at the moment as well.
Speaker 3 (29:01):
I saw the same. So there goes my theory. So
it's here's the thing about the Internet.
Speaker 2 (29:06):
It's all conted, it's wires man and you know.
Speaker 3 (29:11):
It's what was the center that was just driving the
Internet back in the nineties or something like that. Interconnected tubes,
interconnected tubes. Yeah, now that's that's the soup tubes idea.
But we'll come back to that one quick break here
when we come back.
Speaker 1 (29:28):
Stack Roulette, the Financial Exchange Show podcast drops every day
on Apple, Spotify, and iHeartRadio. Hit that subscribe button and
leave us a five star review. You're listening to the
Financial Exchange Radio Network. The Financial Exchange is Life on
Series XM's Business radio channel one thirty two weekdays from
(29:48):
eleven to noon. Get the latest business and financial news
from across the country and around the world, and keep
up to date on how it might affect your wallet.
That's the Financial Exchange weekdays from eleven to noon on
Series XM's Business Radio Channel one thirty two. Face He's
the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 3 (30:12):
Time for a bit of stack Roulette here on the
Financial Exchange. And CNBC has a piece today about the
best and worst months to buy a house, and they're
saying that the difference could save you twenty three thousand dollars.
So here's what they're actually talking about. In January, it
is statistically the cheapest month for home sales, meaning the
(30:33):
price per square foot hits the lowest level in the
month of January which does make some sense given the
fact that most people aren't shopping in January, and if
your home is still for sale in January, it might
speak of some degree of desperation to sell that house.
I would counter with the idea of is this actually useful.
(30:54):
I can think of one group this is actually useful for.
If you are some sort of home flipper or you know,
constantly buying homes to rent out some big real estate tycoon,
then I can see how this would be valuable. But
for the average person who's maybe going to buy two
to three homes in their entire lifetime, I can think
(31:14):
of different things that are more important than trying to
find the deal on the very few properties that are
actually for sale in January. And so if you're out
there waiting to buy that next home because you're waiting
for that stage of life, I cannot say enough that
I think this is a stupid strategy. You should be
focusing on. This is what I need out of a
(31:35):
home where I'm going to spend probably multi decades of
my life, and so these are the number of beds
and baths that I need. This is the neighborhood that
I'm looking for, or the type of neighborhood that I'm
looking for, and most importantly, this is what I can afford.
And if if you find a home that matches those
criteria what I need in the neighborhood that I want,
(31:58):
plus a price point with a monthly payment that I
can actually afford and sustainably afford, like I'm not doing
some sort of crazy balloon payment or adjustable rate mortgage
that could shoot.
Speaker 4 (32:08):
Up in the other direction. Then buy the house.
Speaker 3 (32:11):
Don't wait for it to go on sale in January,
maybe because guess what, it's especially in the market here
in the Northeast, probably going to sell. I think this
might be useful information. Like I said, if you're some
sort of home flipper and you actually have the ability
to time out things, then yeah, sure, okay, maybe this
is useful. But I see pieces like this all the time, like, oh,
(32:31):
here's how you should buy your first home. It's like, no,
probably not. Do you want to relocate your kids midway
through the school year as another factor to consider on
this one. So, of course prices are lowest in January.
Don't use that as a guideline for where to buy
your home. If you have an investment property and that's
your business. Maybe that's a different story, Tucker. What you
have for sacred life?
Speaker 5 (32:51):
Well, Mike, you have kids. I have kids, and I
got to ask the question, are they in the frenzy
that is and continues to be for decades of Pokemon?
Speaker 2 (33:01):
No the boo boos.
Speaker 3 (33:03):
Yes, but Pokemon, at least with my kids, is relegated
to the boys in their class and not as enthusiastic
amongst the girls.
Speaker 5 (33:11):
Okay, So when I was growing up in uh, I
don't know, second or third grade and trying to fit
in awkwardly, I was forced into looking into buying Pokemon
cards because all the cool kids had it.
Speaker 2 (33:24):
Correct.
Speaker 5 (33:24):
I went to a KB Toys and I went to
the counter and I asked for Pokemon set. I had
no idea what they were really and the guy just
pretty much laughed in my face because they were just
sold out. Well it continues to be the case still
to this day. Uh And not just Pokemon.
Speaker 2 (33:41):
Love artificial shortages like this, yeah, good moves.
Speaker 5 (33:45):
Not just Pokemon. The sports, true sports cards are are booming.
Speaker 2 (33:50):
Now.
Speaker 5 (33:50):
We've seen all the the Tom Brady investment in card Vault,
and you've seen those card Vault shops.
Speaker 3 (33:58):
I knew about the Pokemon thing. I was not familiar
with trading cards for sports.
Speaker 5 (34:02):
Again, Taylor Swift is also in that category as well.
Speaker 3 (34:06):
And what do you mean what does she do? Apparently
category I'm seeing now Taylor Swift card. But their stats
on it apparently well, I don't know if there's stats
on it, but there are some sort of cards.
Speaker 4 (34:16):
How much money she made on the Aras tour.
Speaker 5 (34:19):
It's just on the back, just like a you know,
oh yo batting average.
Speaker 3 (34:24):
I would love some awesome t Swifts to be printed
on a card.
Speaker 2 (34:28):
Well.
Speaker 5 (34:29):
This according to CNBC, sales of collectible trading cards like
Pokemon and sports sets are surging, with Target reporting a
seventy percent year to date increase in expecting over one
billion dollars in annual revenue from that category. And you
see more and more retailers like Target and Walmart trying
(34:50):
to increase their inventory of these trading cards, whether it's
sports or in pop culture or entertainment ahead of the
holiday season.
Speaker 4 (34:58):
Here, I'll tell.
Speaker 2 (34:59):
You what you all right?
Speaker 4 (35:00):
I'm what's your name? It's very Thomas, Thomas and Charles.
Speaker 3 (35:06):
The water story was Chuck's over exuberant story.
Speaker 4 (35:11):
This is mine fed's got a hike.
Speaker 3 (35:12):
If if we're getting back into you know, infatuation with
what's next, NFTs are we're gonna get get to see
a JPEG image computer generated generated image.
Speaker 4 (35:23):
See it surge again, Like this.
Speaker 3 (35:25):
Is not the type of stuff that you see in
an economy that's on the cusp of recessions. So FED,
who is probably going to cut rates in a week,
beware of stuff like this. Speaking of things that are
going to drive prices higher. Runaway insurance costs are surging
across the nation. We've covered this quite a bit. Some
(35:46):
of the worst rates increases that we have seen include Colorado, Louisiana, Florida, Minnesota.
This is something that is honestly equally dispersed across the
country and somewhat random in terms of where it goes. Currently,
eleven states regulate the ability for insurance companies to increase
(36:08):
rates on their homeowners. So the states include Alabama, California, Hawaii, Mississippi,
New Jersey, North Carolina, North Dakota. They can only reject
them if it's an increase of five percent or more
in North Dakota, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, where it has to
be seven percent or more Washington and West Virginia, and
you'd better believe that lawmakers in other states are going
(36:31):
to jump on this bandwagon. And here is lawmakers, I
think frequently come up with solutions to problems that are
not wise economically. But I can assure you there is
only one eventual outcome should state ensure state insurance regulators
refuse price increases, which is what is happening across the
(36:54):
country right now, is insurance companies are you know, jacking
rates up ten fifteen percent in many cases, and the
regulators are saying, no, pump the brakes. We're not gonna
let you get away with it. There's only one outcome there,
which is insurers are going to disappear from that market.
So what do price caps?
Speaker 2 (37:13):
Do? They lead to shortages?
Speaker 3 (37:15):
We are very familiar with this when it comes to
things like rent control or price caps on groceries. We
are less familiar with it when it comes to insurance.
But the same thesis applies. So again, I know, nobody
likes to see their insurance rates go up. It's not
happening because companies are greedy. Of course, companies are greedy,
but it's not the cause. It's not the root cause.
(37:37):
Behind rates going up. The root cause is the risk
is getting a lot higher for all of us from
homeowners and car insurance, car insurance both because the replacement
costs are higher and more natural disasters. And so guess
what rates are going up, And if your state tries
to limit it, then you're going to see those insurers
step out of those states like you've seen in the
health insurance and auto and home insurance rates. All the
(38:00):
time we have for the financial exchange today, but we're
back at it tomorrow. Dow, SMP and NAZAC all strongly
in positive territory. We'll have a full recap for you,
amongst other things, tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (38:09):
Tune in
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