December 22, 2025 • 38 mins
Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong discuss what is happening in markets this week. What is the latest on the Netflix, Paramount, Warner Brothers deal? the economy survived 2025, but many Americans are reeling. Mortgage rates are falling but owners still won't sell.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Financial Exchange is produced by Money Matters Radio and
is hosted by employees of the Armstrong Advisory Group, a
registered investment advisor. All opinions expressed are solely those of
the hosts. Do not reflect the opinions of Armstrong Advisory
or anyone else. Investments can lose money. This program does
not offer any specific financial or investment advice. Please consult
your own financial, tax, and estate planning advisors before making
(00:20):
any investment decisions. Armstrong Advisory and the advertisers heard on
this program do not endorse each other or their services.
Armstrong and Money Matters Radio do not compensate each other
for referrals and are not affiliated. This is the Financial
Exchange with Chuck Zada and Mike Armstrong, Your exclusive look
at business and financial news affecting your day, your city,
(00:42):
your world. Stay informed and up to date about economic
and market trends, plus breaking business news every day. The
Financial Exchange is a proud partner of the Disabled American
Veterans Department of Massachusetts. Help us support our great American
heroes by visiting dav five k dot com Boston and
making a donation today. This is the Financial Exchange with
(01:05):
Chuck Zada and Mike Armstrong.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
Chuck, Mike and Tucker with you.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
In a holiday shortened trading week, markets will be closing
at one pm on Christmas Eve.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
They will be closed all day.
Speaker 3 (01:23):
On Christmas, and I will reopen on Friday to no
one paying attention to them because no one cares, honestly,
fairly quiet. Sorry, Like if you were hoping for, hey,
the most important trading week of the year, this isn't it.
There's just not that much interesting stuff that is going
to move markets in.
Speaker 2 (01:45):
Any meaningful way.
Speaker 3 (01:46):
Doesn't mean that we don't have any data, But does
anyone really get excited about durable goods?
Speaker 2 (01:52):
Yes, it's coming out tomorrow.
Speaker 4 (01:54):
I do not.
Speaker 3 (01:56):
I do think it'll be interesting. We are going to
get the estimate of GDP growth for Q three coming
out tomorrow, which will be interesting at least just to
see because we did not receive the first estimate that
was supposed to come out last month because of the
government shutdown. So in this case, the second estimate is
actually going to be the first estimate, which is just
(02:19):
a testament to how we got in this predicament.
Speaker 4 (02:23):
And we'll see if it's as big of a cluster
as the BLS data was for the last few weeks.
Speaker 3 (02:27):
It could be a little bit messy, so we'll see
what we get here, but expectations are pretty good for
about three point two percent GDP growth in Q three,
so we'll see what we end up with there. Thus
far through Q four, Atlanta FED has US tracking somewhere
in the three and a half percent range, so we'll
see kind of where things move on that front. About
(02:48):
a month ago we were just north of four percent
tracking for Q four. That has come down a little
bit there, but again still looking like we're gonna have
a pretty strong finish to the year, which again kind
of gets this idea of, okay, that the best way
to tell where the economy is going to be tomorrow
is to look at where it was yesterday, because generally
(03:09):
these things are kind of hard to disrupt when you
talk about mature, stable, dynamic economies like the United States,
And so that's kind of where we are right now Wednesday.
There is no important economic data coming out. I know
we get jobbless claims, but honestly.
Speaker 2 (03:23):
I'm not gonna look at them.
Speaker 4 (03:25):
It's Christmas Eve.
Speaker 2 (03:27):
I'm not going to be looking at them.
Speaker 4 (03:29):
We will find out on Tuesday, how much confidence consumers
are lacking according to the latest survey at ten AM,
which again has been a good indicator of absolutely nothing
over the course of the last five years.
Speaker 3 (03:41):
Yes, it's told us how people feel, but not how
they behave. And so given the fact that how people
feel does not influence markets or the economy, apparently I
don't know why we continue to worry about how people feel.
I'm not saying that in terms of like, I don't
care how you feel, because I care about you, Michael,
(04:02):
and I want you to be happy, thank you. But
what I do mean is if people keep telling us
they're not going to spend money and then they go
and spend money, I don't know what use that survey is.
Speaker 4 (04:15):
I was speaking with our Portland main affiliate, Matt Gannon
this morning and he asked me about the recent data
and how it seemed a little bit flawed, especially that
on the inflation data, and you know, there's a fair
bit of skepticism, and he just asked, like, what do
you do in this situation? Just kind of trust your gut,
and I kind of giggled. I was like, well, I'll
(04:36):
tell you I don't know about you know, any one
individual's guts, but our collective guts over the last three
years have told us that the economy and everything else
is terrible. And had you listened to that collective gut instinct,
you would have sure missed out on a whole bunch
of positivity in markets. This does raise an interesting question
in my opinion, which is when the economy acts actually
(05:00):
becomes terrible.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
Which will at some point in the future.
Speaker 3 (05:03):
I'm not saying like this is like around I don't
know when this will be, but like at some point
in human history, we will have another recession in the
United States. When that happens, what are we going to
feel then.
Speaker 4 (05:18):
Maybe a fair bit of froud and troid Like people
have been cheering this thing, the cash for a fair
bit of what how do you pronounce it?
Speaker 2 (05:25):
Well, you miss you mix up the froud in the shoyd.
You said froud andshoyed. It's shoyd and frowed.
Speaker 4 (05:29):
Yeah, well, you know it's fine. It's the Monday before Christmas.
I don't speak German, and so maybe they'll be cheering
it on, or maybe we'll have to reset all of
our expectations for how this index works and we'll test
all new lows when the economy actually gets bad. Because
it's really tough to describe this economy as genuinely bad
anytime for the last four eh no year, No you could.
Speaker 2 (05:51):
You could say in twenty twenty two it was genuinely bad.
Speaker 4 (05:54):
So three years.
Speaker 3 (05:54):
Yeah, and even in twenty three and twenty four there
were still real.
Speaker 4 (05:59):
Problems, Like here are pockets of badness in twenty three
and no, I won't even say pockets. Like twenty three
objectively was improving, but from a really bad spot. I mean, Mike,
we had three significant bank failures in the first part
of the year. There were some dodgy things happening there. Yes,
we emerged fine from it, but things were pretty dodgy
(06:22):
in particular in the first half of that year. Yeah.
Where why I'm sighing is I really have a difficult
time describing anything as a dodgy economy when the unemployment
rate is firmly below four percent. No, but I get it,
I do get it. There were bank failures, there was
really high inflation. Yeah, but when you have such a
(06:43):
low unemployment rate, I really.
Speaker 3 (06:46):
Well one caused the other though, I mean again, like
get it. You look at this like in again, I'm
looking June of twenty three, core inflation was at four
to nine.
Speaker 4 (06:55):
Yeah, not a good feeling.
Speaker 3 (06:58):
It's it's a little hot for me. Then you know,
like it's four nine's a little hot. Now you had
headline inflation that was down to three percent. But here's
the interesting thing. Headline inflation got down to three percent
in June of twenty three. It hasn't really budged lower
in any meaningful consistent way. We've had pockets where it's
gone lower for a little bit here there, but it's
(07:23):
been okay. There's a couple months where it dips down
to two and a half and then it goes back
up to three.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
Like we haven't really gotten there.
Speaker 4 (07:31):
What else is exciting going on this week? Well, Wednesday
is technically the kickoff of the Santa Claus rally time
period if we're going to get one right. Wednesday, Friday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday,
and then the first two days of the new year
is the official time period for the Santa Claus rally.
So we'll see if he comes to town and lifts
(07:51):
stocks through year end. There is a statistical relationship there
where stocks historically have performed better than normal during this
Santa Claus rally time period.
Speaker 5 (08:02):
So we shall see it didn't happen last year, right.
Speaker 4 (08:05):
Don't know, don't remember? Unimportant?
Speaker 5 (08:08):
I think it's that's so last year talker. Yes, let's
not refer to last year whatsoever. It doesn't matter as far.
Speaker 4 (08:17):
As I'm frankly, the statistic as a whole doesn't matter,
which is why I'm which is why I'm saying that
it doesn't matter. But yeah, I don't recall what exactly
if stocks went up or down last year during the
Santa Claus rally time period.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
So in any case, this is what is ahead for
the week.
Speaker 4 (08:34):
Can I request that we come up with a new
word to or a new definition for the fake word froudenschoid.
Speaker 2 (08:40):
Froudenschoid.
Speaker 3 (08:41):
Yeah, it is the short and fraud you receive or
feel when doing something incorrect.
Speaker 4 (08:47):
Yeah, I like that.
Speaker 2 (08:50):
We could we could, we could do that maybe.
Speaker 3 (08:51):
Yeah, let's take a quick break and when we return
the latest in the love triangle between Paramount, Warner Our
Discovery and Netflix after.
Speaker 1 (09:02):
This miss any of the show. The Financial Exchange Show
podcast is available on Apple, Spotify, and iHeartRadio. Hit the
subscribe button and leave us a five star review. This
is the Financial Exchange Radio Network. Text us at six
one seven three, six two one three eighty five with
your comments and questions about today's show and let us
(09:22):
know what you think about the stories we are covering.
This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 5 (09:32):
Soon This segment of The Financial Exchange is brought to
you by the US Virgin Islands Department of Tourism. There's
still time to book your holiday vacation to Saint Croix,
Saint Thomas, or Saint John. Enjoy one or all three,
and if you act fast, you could be on Saint
Croid too. Experience their Crucian Christmas Festival taking place this
(09:53):
December through early January. Discover the magic of this long
standing tradition with incredible food, music and entertainment. Or just
go soak up the sun, stroll along white sand beaches
and feel the rhythm with the heartbeat.
Speaker 4 (10:05):
Of the Islands.
Speaker 5 (10:06):
The USVII is America's Caribbean paradise. Playing your winter escape
now at visit USVII dot com. That's visit USVII dot com.
Speaker 4 (10:16):
It's Mike and Chuck here on the Finite. It's Mike
and Chuck here on the Financial Exchange and you know,
I just wanted to wish all of our listeners in
one of our newer affiliates, Portland, Maine, a very happy
and healthy holiday season and a terrific new year. Thank
you for being with us this year. All the best
in twenty twenty six. Before we get to our top
next story of twenty twenty six.
Speaker 3 (10:38):
Let's talk a little bit about this latest development in
the Paramount unsolicited bid for Warner Brothers Discovery. Paramount amended
its offer with Larry Ellison agreeing to personally guarantee forty
point four billion dollars of equity financing for the deal,
(10:58):
and also published records related to the family trust that
backstops the deal. They did not make any changes to
their offer price, but pretty much saying, Okay, you told
us you want Ellison to personally backstop the deal.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
Great, he's going to do that.
Speaker 3 (11:15):
Not one hundred percent, because again the deal is larger
than forty point four billion dollars, but about a forty
percent guarantee on the deal.
Speaker 4 (11:24):
Kind of sounds exactly like what Warner brother was asking for.
Next comments, right, So it reminds me, yes, call your bluff.
Speaker 3 (11:31):
It reminds me of so this Tucker, can we fire
up the time machine, Stata.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
We don't have to go back too far.
Speaker 3 (11:36):
We're gonna go back to uh maybe twenty twenty one,
and uh, look, it's a personal story, but I just
find it kind of humorous. Wife and I were bidding
on a house in twenty twenty one, which, if anyone
will tell you, was a bad idea because twenty twenty
one was like the most competitive housing market ever. We
came in and we made, you know, an offer, and
(11:58):
they said, okay, you know, you got to give us
ex do and you know, we said, okay, like that
seems reasonable, like we'd left ourselves a little room to negotiate.
And then they said, now you've got to wave your
contingencies and we said, no, you asked us for six
dollars more and we're we're doing those and we're keeping
our contingencies in place because gee, we kind of want
to inspect the place and you know, look around, and hey,
(12:20):
if financing falls through, I don't want to personally be
you know, on the hook for more money than I have,
which is why I'm borrowing the money. So g no,
that's not gonna work. Lo and Behold, they were like no,
you have to do this, and we were like, no, like,
we're not going to continue jumping through hoops. We're not
gonna bid against ourselves. This is dumb. If you have
a better offer, take it otherwise, like we're out. The
place ended up sitting for about maybe three months after this,
(12:43):
and this is in twenty one, so you know that
they had screwed up a little bit and eventually went
for about five percent under what we had offered. So
this brings me back to this point here, which is
got to make you feel good quite honestly. The Shorten
fraud thanks was strong, yeah with that one, But I digress.
(13:03):
In any case, we've got a situation here where Warner
Brothers Discovery pretty much you know, came out and said, hey,
we don't like your offer because it's not personally guaranteed
by Larry Ellison enough and we don't have enough info
ins to the financials of that trust that he says
is going to back this. And Larry Ellison said, fine, here,
(13:24):
I'm gonna personally guarantee forty point four billion dollars, which
I got to admit not nothing significant amount of money,
and on top of it, you know, publish a bunch
of information on what's in his trust that he doesn't
have to publish. So my view, right, my view on
(13:46):
this is quite honestly, he basically called Warner Brothers Discoveries bluff.
Speaker 4 (13:51):
Yeah, and.
Speaker 3 (13:54):
It kind of raised the stakes now to where, in
my opinion, Netflix has to give some kind of improvement
to the deal otherwise it creates the appearance for shareholders
who remember this is where it went directly too, that
Warner Brothers Discovery board is not interested in dealing with
Ellison and may miss out on a better deal as
(14:16):
a result of that.
Speaker 4 (14:17):
Now, remember, even with all of this, the math on
these deals seems to be that the Netflix one is
still a little bit richer, but much more complicated. The
company has to be split up into two different entities,
it's going to take longer to accomplish. And so yes,
Netflix may have offered a little bit more money on
(14:37):
the surface. We're talking in billions of dollars, so I
guess it's not a little bit more money. They offered
more money on the surface, but there is much more
uncertainty when it comes to that deal. What is this
entity actually going to be worth? But by the time
we sell it off because Netflix does not want the
network television part of this.
Speaker 2 (14:56):
They have no interested in TBSTNT and.
Speaker 4 (14:58):
All that stuff. And oh yeah. I mean, if you
are the board now of Warner Brothers, either you have
some bias towards the Netflix deal that you didn't really
tell shareholders about, or you have to seriously consider this
now that it's been backstopped.
Speaker 3 (15:13):
So if I'm Netflix, which remember, if you look at this,
paramount is bidding thirty dollars a share for all of
Warner Netflix is bidding twenty seven to seventy five for
most of not the not the cable stuff. And so
you know, does that mean Netflix just has to come
back and be like, Okay, well up are offered to
twenty eight bucks a share like that that might be
(15:35):
enough to.
Speaker 2 (15:35):
You know, get it over the hump.
Speaker 3 (15:37):
It might be twenty eight I don't know what it is,
but it does create the appearance of negotiating in bad
faith if Larry Elson basically did everything that you told
him to and you're like, no, we're still not interested.
Speaker 4 (15:55):
Now, this was not It's not as though Warner Brothers
came out and said the only reason we're not doing
this deal is because we have suspicions about this, but
they made.
Speaker 2 (16:02):
A pretty big deal of it, correct.
Speaker 4 (16:04):
You know, there were other reasons they preferred the Netflix bid,
but they made a fairly big deal of the stability
of the Paramount bid, and I think all of those
concerns have been done away with now.
Speaker 3 (16:17):
And this also then gets at Okay, if you're looking
at this as a deal that is going to need
federal government approval, which newsflash, it will, then you can't
really have allegations of you know, not being in the
best interest of shareholders, you know, lurking here, which is
another reason why I think Netflix probably has to do
(16:38):
something to up its offers. So this continues to be
a very juicy story that I just I can't get
enough of.
Speaker 4 (16:46):
It's playing out exactly the way that you would hope
a good Hollywood drama does.
Speaker 2 (16:52):
Right, Yeah, which will stream oment I'm on the edge.
Speaker 4 (16:55):
Of my seed and eventually, yeah, you're right, they will
make a They almost certainly make a doctor. You better
about this very sure.
Speaker 3 (17:01):
Tune in eighteen months from now for the documentary about
this on whoever wins Warner Brothers.
Speaker 4 (17:07):
Discovery or loses. We'll see.
Speaker 2 (17:10):
The losers might have to forfeit their right to it. Yeah,
I'm kidding. I don't think that.
Speaker 3 (17:15):
I don't think you can forfeit a right to a
documentary that hasn't been produced yet, but one would hope
that you could because it would just tie into this nice,
juicy drama. The US Coast Guard is chasing another oil
tanker from Venezuela.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
Uh, it would.
Speaker 4 (17:34):
Be easy to catch.
Speaker 2 (17:37):
That fast, Like, you can't really hide one.
Speaker 3 (17:39):
They're they're they're carrying a bunch of oil, so they're
they're pretty slow.
Speaker 4 (17:44):
It's not much of a test for the US Coast Guard.
Speaker 2 (17:46):
Well here's the thing, Jim. Can you get a look
at this. What do you think that is over there?
Speaker 4 (17:53):
Fishing boat or oil tanker?
Speaker 2 (17:54):
So here's the thing.
Speaker 3 (17:55):
It's the ship is Bellow one, which was sanctioned by
the US back in twenty four. This is now again
the third tanker that they are trying to blockade. And
look this to me, I mean, we can talk about
whether or not this has anything to do with Venezuela,
because I'm not convinced it does. The longer this goes on,
(18:18):
it might have something to do with Venezuela, but only
insomuch as it really is.
Speaker 2 (18:24):
About Russia, China, Iran. In my opinion, Venezuela.
Speaker 4 (18:30):
Is just easy target for it.
Speaker 3 (18:32):
It's something where Venezuela is geographically isolated relative to the
other three and economically and militarily weaker than the other three,
and so they're kind of getting the.
Speaker 2 (18:45):
Short end of the stick on this.
Speaker 3 (18:47):
Yeah, But I think the piece that I continue to
be curious about is given China's lack of hesitation in
deploying restrictions on rare earth exports multiple times this year,
(19:07):
I'm a little surprised that we haven't seen it from
them on this, to be honest.
Speaker 4 (19:12):
Yeah, they speak out for the first time on this
over the weekend.
Speaker 3 (19:18):
Pay attention to what people do, not what people say,
you know, and so there are a few different ways
you can potentially read that, and I just find that interesting.
Let's take a quick break. When we return, it's Wall
Street Watch.
Speaker 1 (19:40):
Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter at
TFE show. Breaking business news is always first right on
the Financial Exchange Radio Network. Time now for Wall Street
Watch a complete look at what's moving market so far
today right here on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 5 (20:01):
Markets are beginning the shortened holiday week in positive territories,
Investors all wait more economic data points, including durable goods
and third quarter GDP, due out this week. Right now,
the Dial is up nearly four tenths of a percent,
or one hundred and seventy five points higher. S and
P five hundred up over four tenths of a percent
to twenty nine points higher. Nasdaq also up about four
(20:22):
tenths of a percent or ninety three points. Russell two
thousand is up one point two percent, Tenure tris reeled
up one basis point at four point one sixty seven
percent sixty seven, and crude oil is up two and
a half percent higher, trading just below fifty eight dollars
a barrel. Another development in an ongoing story this morning
(20:43):
in the bidding war for Warner Brothers Discovery, Paramount is
now admitted its offer for Warner Brothers, where Larry Ellison
agreed to personally guaranteed forty point four billion dollars of
equity financing for the deal. Netflix shares down nearly one percent,
Paramount stock is up seven percent, while Warner Brothers Discovery
is rising about three percent. Meanwhile, workplace products maker Sentas
(21:07):
has submitted another offer to acquire smaller uniform supplier Universe,
after nearly four years of failing to complete a deal.
This time, sint Us is bidding five point two billion
dollars and is vowing to make sure the transaction clears
any regulatory hurdles by including a sizable break feed to
sweeten the deal. Sintas up one percent, while Universe shares
(21:30):
are rallying twelve percent. Elsewhere, Reuters is reporting that Nvidia
intends to begin shipping its H two hundred ships to
China by mid February. However, uncertainty remains as China has
yet to approve any H two hundred purchases, so the
timeline could shift. And Video shares are up over one percent,
and China's Baydo is teaming up with ride haling companies
(21:50):
Uber in Lyft to begin trials of self driving vehicles
in the UK. Both Uber and Lyft or up anywhere
between three and four percent. I'm Tucker Silva and that
is Wall Street. Watch and subscribe now to our YouTube page.
Will you find daily interviews in full shows of the
Financial Exchange. You'll get caught up on anything and everything
(22:11):
you might have missed right here on the Financial Exchange
just search the Financial Exchange on YouTube and hit that
subscribe button.
Speaker 2 (22:20):
Piece of the New York Times.
Speaker 3 (22:21):
The economy survived twenty twenty five, but many Americans are reeling,
and this gets it something that I wanted to kind
of like discuss from the last segment because we were
talking about, you know, whether.
Speaker 4 (22:34):
Or not the economy was bad over the last three years.
Is that what you're getting as, Yeah, well, here's.
Speaker 3 (22:37):
The thing for the last five years now really six okay,
twenty twenty one, twenty two, twenty three, twenty four, twenty five.
There hasn't been a single one of those that has
just been easy for Americans. There have been different reasons
(22:59):
in each one, but there hasn't been a single one
where you've just been like, Okay, we can just chill.
Twenty twenty, I think we can all agree. Twenty twenty
was a little bit disrupted. Twenty twenty one. Hey, we're
getting everybody back to work. But guess what as we
do that try to get anything, and you can't remember
(23:19):
all like the delays we had getting stuff.
Speaker 4 (23:21):
Yeah my mirrors, yes, never showed.
Speaker 3 (23:24):
Your mirrors, my chairs, like things along those lines. You know,
there were lines eight months long for grills in twenty
twenty one, twenty twenty two, all of that backlog turned
into inflation that kind of sucked for all of us,
didn't it.
Speaker 4 (23:38):
Yep.
Speaker 3 (23:38):
Twenty twenty three, Silicon Valley bank fails. You've got these
bank failures. You got questions about, you know, is inflation
actually gonna come down? Because core is still running north
a five percent halfway or almost halfway through the year.
Speaker 2 (23:52):
Not exactly the most comfortable. Twenty twenty four.
Speaker 3 (23:55):
You can make a case twenty four is the closest
that we've come to normal, but you still had a
slowing labor market, and you still had inflation hanging out
around three. But twenty four you can at least point
to and be like, Okay, maybe we were like kind
of getting close there this year. Interestingly enough, like you
look at inflation, it still is around three, but like
(24:18):
it hasn't gone up up, up up up.
Speaker 4 (24:20):
Yep.
Speaker 3 (24:22):
The unemployment rate is rising. I know, we say it's
four and a half percent, but it doesn't matter like
where it is, it matters where it's come from.
Speaker 4 (24:28):
Yeah, in January, we're at four to six.
Speaker 3 (24:31):
Now, and you will get a lot of underlying data
and it's consistent with an unemployment rate that is one
to two percent higher. You know, like a lot of
the jolts rates are back at where they were in
twenty thirteen to twenty fifteen. Sure, and that's not that's
not a great labor market. And so like you look
at all this and on top of that, then you
throw you know, kind of the tariff chaos of the
(24:52):
first half of the year into the equation and it's like, okay,
twenty five has you know, been kind of messy, even
though we're you know, tracking for you know, mid mid
to low two's on GDP growth. And so I guess
the point that I'll make on this is it's just
(25:13):
been an exhausting six years for Americans financially, and it's
just like you just getting keep getting bludgeoned by one
thing after another.
Speaker 2 (25:21):
Yeah, and you know, I know.
Speaker 3 (25:24):
That we always like to be like, hey, if you
took an economist and drop them into twenty five and
said unemployments you know, four point five percent and inflations
two six how good would you say the economy is?
They'd undoubtedly be like great. But the problem is, like
it loses the context of.
Speaker 4 (25:41):
It's been a really we've lived through societal pace of change,
I think, and people are.
Speaker 3 (25:46):
Now also reeling with like is Ai going to replace me?
And will the robots kill my family?
Speaker 4 (25:52):
Yeah, that's kind of what I mean. Like, you take
a look at where we've come from over the last
five years, and it's been a very rapid pace of change,
from pandemic to inflation that we haven't seen in fifty
some odd years, to now a brand new technology that
has people spoot, and it's it's understandable why people are
reeling in some ways.
Speaker 2 (26:13):
The counter to this.
Speaker 3 (26:17):
Is, aside from the nineteen nineties specifically, like late nineties
ninety five through two thousand, Like what period would you
pick to live in from an economic perspective? Aside from
like there in maybe like nineteen fifty four through sixty one,
(26:40):
Like you cause, listen, like those two periods were fantastic.
Sure you could even I'll even give you like twenty
eighteen and twenty nineteen because things were pretty darn good then.
But aside from that, it's kind of like, okay, like
the last one hundred and fifty years of recorded history,
maybe the norm is that things are always kind of nuts,
(27:02):
and that's that's unfortunately just how it is.
Speaker 4 (27:06):
Yeah, cause and while you can point to a few
periods in time where economically maybe things were a little
bit easier, there are plenty of questions then still yeah,
there's still like really big messiness like nineteen fifties, what
did you say, nineteen fifties as an example.
Speaker 2 (27:22):
Like late late fifties, you can pretty.
Speaker 4 (27:24):
Ugly concerns about Cold War back then, and it's just
weird even economically, like like there's.
Speaker 2 (27:30):
No guarantee what was going to turn out the way.
Speaker 4 (27:32):
It would nineteen nineties AIDS epidemic. Yeah, there's always been
no no, But I'm talking like I know you're talking economically,
but you know, if I'm broadening it out a little bit,
I feel as though people get very stressed and concerned
about the end of society as we know it. And
when we do that, I think it's important to take
(27:54):
a step back and like study history a little bit,
because there's rarely been a time where things are been great.
Well it's and again broadening it out from economically here
for a moment like oh, yeah, I wish I had
grown up in the nineteen twenties. Well, you know, Polio
Shire sucked well, and so did the Great Depression.
Speaker 3 (28:12):
Yeah, you know, and fine, you could grow up in
the nineteen twenties, but there's no guarantee you're gonna live
till the nineteen thirties, and when you do, it kind
of sucks.
Speaker 2 (28:20):
And by the way, then the forties were worse.
Speaker 4 (28:23):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (28:23):
Yeah, So, and actually I'd like to open this up
to the text line six one seven three six two
thirteen eighty five, because this is like a question that
I always love to ask. Pick a time that you
would rather live in than right now.
Speaker 4 (28:42):
In the past. Right.
Speaker 3 (28:44):
Well, I mean you could pick in the future, but
we're like the jury's gonna be out on that, so
it'll just be uninteresting. Yeah, and I'm talking like full life.
You don't get to pick like three years and be like, oh,
I'd like to live from nineteen seventy three through nineteen
seventy six. Please, No, Like, you don't get to do that.
You you get to live a full eighty year lifespan,
but you have to go through all of the stuff
(29:05):
without knowing how it's going to unfold, and like without
knowing that it's going to be okay. So six one seven,
three six two thirteen eighty five. Tell me a time
that you think was a better time to be born.
Give me the specific birth year, and I will tell
you why you're wrong. Six one, seven, three, six, two,
(29:29):
thirteen eighty five.
Speaker 2 (29:31):
Let's take a.
Speaker 3 (29:31):
Quick break when we come back now. I can't do
another K shaped piece right now. I appreciate it, talker,
but we we we need to save it, Professor. We
gotta live the Give the other letters some some space
as well. Let's talk a little bit about mortgage rates
and the impact on housing.
Speaker 1 (29:46):
After this, find daily interviews in full shows of the
Financial Exchange on o our YouTube page. Subscribe to our
page and get caught up on anything and everything you
might have missed. This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
This is your home for the most comprehensive coverage of
the economy and the trends on Wall Street. Face is
the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 5 (30:13):
The Financial Exchange is a proud partner of the Disabled
American Veterans Department of Massachusetts. Planning is well underway for
the twenty twenty six DAV five K. If you weren't
able to attend this year's race, but would still like
to help our great American heroes, please visit DAV fivek
dot Boston and make a donation. Your participation helps provide
(30:34):
vital services like free transportation to medical appointments and safe
housing for single veterans and their families. Donate today at
DAV fivek dot Boston. That's DAV fivek dot Boston.
Speaker 3 (30:46):
Nearly thirty million households are about fifty four percent of
primary mortgage holders have mortgage rates at or below forty percent.
For whatever, below four percent, I'm sorry I added a
decimal somehow there. And so this gets us to, you know, again,
(31:06):
something we've talked about this year, which is for a
lot of those people, if they don't have to move,
they look at the financials and kind of say, I'm
not sure about it.
Speaker 4 (31:16):
We've got a poster hanging in our studio on the
five d's of housing, which are divorced, downsizing, diapers, diamonds,
and death. And somebody commented on it the other day
because it's just they're in the studio for an interview
and it's become such a fixture that I don't even
notice it anymore. But how long is that going to
be relevant to us? So how long are we going
to be talking about the motivators for finally getting people
(31:38):
to sell their homes.
Speaker 2 (31:39):
In terms of like mortgage lock Yeah.
Speaker 3 (31:41):
The so Mike Simonson, who we interviewed last week, he did,
he's got a whole video up actually on like next
year's predictions on the housing market.
Speaker 2 (31:51):
You can even think.
Speaker 3 (31:52):
Compass has the report that you can download. It's like
forty pages and some odd. Basically where he gets to
is ei year, you see about two to three million
of those lower mortgage rates that still do end up
turning over, okay, just because you know, people say, okay,
like we've got to you know, move for whatever reason.
(32:15):
And it's it's still lower volume than you'd like to see.
Actually I think it was one point five to two million,
I think he said. And so where you get to
on this is that once those turnover and you're into
a new mortgage, like, you're free then for future movement
and everything. And so basically his outline is three to
(32:38):
five years from now, this is going to be far
less impactful, right, but you still have to get through
that next three to five years. And so I think
that as we traverse that time, it's going to start
unlocking again.
Speaker 2 (32:51):
More inventory and more turnover. But it still is going
to be slow there. So I think that we're talking the.
Speaker 4 (33:00):
Five days of Housing for for a little while. You're
gonna be hanging here in our studio.
Speaker 3 (33:03):
Yeah, And so ultimately it gets back to the point
that we've talked about, you know, for the last few months,
which is housing is going to work through this affordability problem,
most likely over a two to three year period in
which you're probably not going to see much national home
price appreciation. Hopefully incomes continue to rise, you know, two
(33:28):
to four percent a year during that time, and somewhere
in that twenty twenty eight through twenty twenty nine, maybe
twenty thirty range, the housing market is going to be
back to normal.
Speaker 4 (33:41):
We at the armstore advisor grove frequently, I mean questions
about financial planning, very often surround where you live your home.
You know, it's oftentimes one of your biggest assets as
well as one of your biggest liabilities, and we frequently
get all sorts of questions about where do I live,
what are the tax rates where I live? Is this
(34:03):
the right place for me? You know, as I age,
Should I be looking at relocating? How do I unlock
all of this equity that I've built in my home,
or you know, how do I successfully downsize? And I
think it surprises some people that that is a big
focus of ours, but it speaks to the fact that,
you know, financial planning does not just involve investing. It
(34:27):
really involves every aspect of your financial life. And if
you've been considering a new home purchase or a relocation,
or you're heading to retirement and you're not sure if
where you are now is going to be sustainable. Maybe
you're considering paying off your mortgage early because you're getting
to that retirement date, or buying a new home and
are worried about being a sixty year old with a
(34:48):
new mortgage, which we see frequently. Please give the folks
at Armstrong a call to let us help you build
out that overall financial strategy and appropriately assess, Hey, what
is the best thing to do. Should I be putting
in these big improvements to my home before I retire
and so that I've got the cash flow to fund
them now, or should I put them off because I'm
considering a move down the road? The number is eight
(35:11):
hundred three nine three for zero zero one. As you're
putting together your New Year's resolutions. Put one on that
list about easing your financial concerns for the new year.
The phone number again for the Armstrong Advisory Group eight
hundred three nine three for zero zero one.
Speaker 1 (35:30):
The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal or tax advice. Consult
your own financial tax into state planning advisors before making
any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
advisory services.
Speaker 5 (35:45):
Got one text Chuck for a well you would want
to ideally live in in terms of the era or
the year, somebody said, nineteen seventy nineteen.
Speaker 3 (35:54):
So born in nineteen seventy. Okay, So if you're born
in nineteen seventy, the good news is that you're probably
pretty oblivious through the inflation.
Speaker 2 (36:02):
Of the nineteen seventies. Yeah, you might pick up on
a little bit of it, but not a ton.
Speaker 3 (36:07):
Then you go through the nineteen eighties in your teenage years, Yeah,
it's probably fine, And then you end up in the
nineteen nineties. So you come of age in the nineteen nineties,
as you know, a worker, good time, but then you
get hit by the tech bubble, the financial crisis.
Speaker 4 (36:27):
And so let's say, if you're born in nineteen seventy,
how old were you for the twenty two thousands decade.
You were thirty years old for that, so kind of
peek into your teak into your career, your peak earnings,
you might be getting like whacked crushed. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (36:43):
So again, like my point of this, there's always like problems.
There's no perfect time to be born. And yeah, nineteen seventy,
I can actually buy is like probably one of the
better times to be born in the last one hundred
and fifty years. But also you're still dealing with multiple
(37:03):
financial crises during your peak earning years.
Speaker 4 (37:06):
I mean, I can make a case for my decade
of birth in the nineteen eighties, I was too young
to feel the real job and home ownership ramifications of
the Great Financial Crisis or the tech bubble yep. And
therefore when I actually qualified for a job and had earnings,
home affordability was pretty darn good in the twenty tens decade,
(37:28):
So I can make a case for that. But then again,
millions of my same cohort had an incredibly difficult time
finding that job. I got lucky.
Speaker 3 (37:37):
Oh, Also, okay, here's my other pushback on nineteen seventy,
because I was thinking just economically nineteen seventy. In the
early nineteen nineties, you are twenty years old. Decent chances
are ending up in Gulf War, Decent chances are ending
up in the War on Terror, decent like you could have,
you know.
Speaker 2 (37:55):
Some really bad experiences that you have to live through.
Speaker 3 (37:58):
And this is just talking about you know, nineteen the America,
which again I can't do the whole world, but there's
some real problems that you could still end up facing,
you know, in terms of things that you may be
very much impacted by, but keep them coming. Six point
seven three six two thirteen eighty five. Tell me, other
than today, what's the best year that you think you
(38:19):
could be born? Take a quick break here when we
come back hour two.
Speaker 4 (38:24):
Just a bit
The Financial Exchange is produced by Money Matters Radio and
is hosted by employees of the Armstrong Advisory Group, a
registered investment advisor. All opinions expressed are solely those of
the hosts. Do not reflect the opinions of Armstrong Advisory
or anyone else. Investments can lose money. This program does
not offer any specific financial or investment advice. Please consult
your own financial, tax, and estate planning advisors before making
(00:20):
any investment decisions. Armstrong Advisory and the advertisers heard on
this program do not endorse each other or their services.
Armstrong and Money Matters Radio do not compensate each other
for referrals and are not affiliated. This is the Financial
Exchange with Chuck Zada and Mike Armstrong, Your exclusive look
at business and financial news affecting your day, your city,
(00:42):
your world. Stay informed and up to date about economic
and market trends, plus breaking business news every day. The
Financial Exchange is a proud partner of the Disabled American
Veterans Department of Massachusetts. Help us support our great American
heroes by visiting dav five k dot com Boston and
making a donation today. This is the Financial Exchange with
(01:05):
Chuck Zada and Mike Armstrong.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
Chuck, Mike and Tucker with you.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
In a holiday shortened trading week, markets will be closing
at one pm on Christmas Eve.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
They will be closed all day.
Speaker 3 (01:23):
On Christmas, and I will reopen on Friday to no
one paying attention to them because no one cares, honestly,
fairly quiet. Sorry, Like if you were hoping for, hey,
the most important trading week of the year, this isn't it.
There's just not that much interesting stuff that is going
to move markets in.
Speaker 2 (01:45):
Any meaningful way.
Speaker 3 (01:46):
Doesn't mean that we don't have any data, But does
anyone really get excited about durable goods?
Speaker 2 (01:52):
Yes, it's coming out tomorrow.
Speaker 4 (01:54):
I do not.
Speaker 3 (01:56):
I do think it'll be interesting. We are going to
get the estimate of GDP growth for Q three coming
out tomorrow, which will be interesting at least just to
see because we did not receive the first estimate that
was supposed to come out last month because of the
government shutdown. So in this case, the second estimate is
actually going to be the first estimate, which is just
(02:19):
a testament to how we got in this predicament.
Speaker 4 (02:23):
And we'll see if it's as big of a cluster
as the BLS data was for the last few weeks.
Speaker 3 (02:27):
It could be a little bit messy, so we'll see
what we get here, but expectations are pretty good for
about three point two percent GDP growth in Q three,
so we'll see what we end up with there. Thus
far through Q four, Atlanta FED has US tracking somewhere
in the three and a half percent range, so we'll
see kind of where things move on that front. About
(02:48):
a month ago we were just north of four percent
tracking for Q four. That has come down a little
bit there, but again still looking like we're gonna have
a pretty strong finish to the year, which again kind
of gets this idea of, okay, that the best way
to tell where the economy is going to be tomorrow
is to look at where it was yesterday, because generally
(03:09):
these things are kind of hard to disrupt when you
talk about mature, stable, dynamic economies like the United States,
And so that's kind of where we are right now Wednesday.
There is no important economic data coming out. I know
we get jobbless claims, but honestly.
Speaker 2 (03:23):
I'm not gonna look at them.
Speaker 4 (03:25):
It's Christmas Eve.
Speaker 2 (03:27):
I'm not going to be looking at them.
Speaker 4 (03:29):
We will find out on Tuesday, how much confidence consumers
are lacking according to the latest survey at ten AM,
which again has been a good indicator of absolutely nothing
over the course of the last five years.
Speaker 3 (03:41):
Yes, it's told us how people feel, but not how
they behave. And so given the fact that how people
feel does not influence markets or the economy, apparently I
don't know why we continue to worry about how people feel.
I'm not saying that in terms of like, I don't
care how you feel, because I care about you, Michael,
(04:02):
and I want you to be happy, thank you. But
what I do mean is if people keep telling us
they're not going to spend money and then they go
and spend money, I don't know what use that survey is.
Speaker 4 (04:15):
I was speaking with our Portland main affiliate, Matt Gannon
this morning and he asked me about the recent data
and how it seemed a little bit flawed, especially that
on the inflation data, and you know, there's a fair
bit of skepticism, and he just asked, like, what do
you do in this situation? Just kind of trust your gut,
and I kind of giggled. I was like, well, I'll
(04:36):
tell you I don't know about you know, any one
individual's guts, but our collective guts over the last three
years have told us that the economy and everything else
is terrible. And had you listened to that collective gut instinct,
you would have sure missed out on a whole bunch
of positivity in markets. This does raise an interesting question
in my opinion, which is when the economy acts actually
(05:00):
becomes terrible.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
Which will at some point in the future.
Speaker 3 (05:03):
I'm not saying like this is like around I don't
know when this will be, but like at some point
in human history, we will have another recession in the
United States. When that happens, what are we going to
feel then.
Speaker 4 (05:18):
Maybe a fair bit of froud and troid Like people
have been cheering this thing, the cash for a fair
bit of what how do you pronounce it?
Speaker 2 (05:25):
Well, you miss you mix up the froud in the shoyd.
You said froud andshoyed. It's shoyd and frowed.
Speaker 4 (05:29):
Yeah, well, you know it's fine. It's the Monday before Christmas.
I don't speak German, and so maybe they'll be cheering
it on, or maybe we'll have to reset all of
our expectations for how this index works and we'll test
all new lows when the economy actually gets bad. Because
it's really tough to describe this economy as genuinely bad
anytime for the last four eh no year, No you could.
Speaker 2 (05:51):
You could say in twenty twenty two it was genuinely bad.
Speaker 4 (05:54):
So three years.
Speaker 3 (05:54):
Yeah, and even in twenty three and twenty four there
were still real.
Speaker 4 (05:59):
Problems, Like here are pockets of badness in twenty three
and no, I won't even say pockets. Like twenty three
objectively was improving, but from a really bad spot. I mean, Mike,
we had three significant bank failures in the first part
of the year. There were some dodgy things happening there. Yes,
we emerged fine from it, but things were pretty dodgy
(06:22):
in particular in the first half of that year. Yeah.
Where why I'm sighing is I really have a difficult
time describing anything as a dodgy economy when the unemployment
rate is firmly below four percent. No, but I get it,
I do get it. There were bank failures, there was
really high inflation. Yeah, but when you have such a
(06:43):
low unemployment rate, I really.
Speaker 3 (06:46):
Well one caused the other though, I mean again, like
get it. You look at this like in again, I'm
looking June of twenty three, core inflation was at four
to nine.
Speaker 4 (06:55):
Yeah, not a good feeling.
Speaker 3 (06:58):
It's it's a little hot for me. Then you know,
like it's four nine's a little hot. Now you had
headline inflation that was down to three percent. But here's
the interesting thing. Headline inflation got down to three percent
in June of twenty three. It hasn't really budged lower
in any meaningful consistent way. We've had pockets where it's
gone lower for a little bit here there, but it's
(07:23):
been okay. There's a couple months where it dips down
to two and a half and then it goes back
up to three.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
Like we haven't really gotten there.
Speaker 4 (07:31):
What else is exciting going on this week? Well, Wednesday
is technically the kickoff of the Santa Claus rally time
period if we're going to get one right. Wednesday, Friday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday,
and then the first two days of the new year
is the official time period for the Santa Claus rally.
So we'll see if he comes to town and lifts
(07:51):
stocks through year end. There is a statistical relationship there
where stocks historically have performed better than normal during this
Santa Claus rally time period.
Speaker 5 (08:02):
So we shall see it didn't happen last year, right.
Speaker 4 (08:05):
Don't know, don't remember? Unimportant?
Speaker 5 (08:08):
I think it's that's so last year talker. Yes, let's
not refer to last year whatsoever. It doesn't matter as far.
Speaker 4 (08:17):
As I'm frankly, the statistic as a whole doesn't matter,
which is why I'm which is why I'm saying that
it doesn't matter. But yeah, I don't recall what exactly
if stocks went up or down last year during the
Santa Claus rally time period.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
So in any case, this is what is ahead for
the week.
Speaker 4 (08:34):
Can I request that we come up with a new
word to or a new definition for the fake word froudenschoid.
Speaker 2 (08:40):
Froudenschoid.
Speaker 3 (08:41):
Yeah, it is the short and fraud you receive or
feel when doing something incorrect.
Speaker 4 (08:47):
Yeah, I like that.
Speaker 2 (08:50):
We could we could, we could do that maybe.
Speaker 3 (08:51):
Yeah, let's take a quick break and when we return
the latest in the love triangle between Paramount, Warner Our
Discovery and Netflix after.
Speaker 1 (09:02):
This miss any of the show. The Financial Exchange Show
podcast is available on Apple, Spotify, and iHeartRadio. Hit the
subscribe button and leave us a five star review. This
is the Financial Exchange Radio Network. Text us at six
one seven three, six two one three eighty five with
your comments and questions about today's show and let us
(09:22):
know what you think about the stories we are covering.
This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 5 (09:32):
Soon This segment of The Financial Exchange is brought to
you by the US Virgin Islands Department of Tourism. There's
still time to book your holiday vacation to Saint Croix,
Saint Thomas, or Saint John. Enjoy one or all three,
and if you act fast, you could be on Saint
Croid too. Experience their Crucian Christmas Festival taking place this
(09:53):
December through early January. Discover the magic of this long
standing tradition with incredible food, music and entertainment. Or just
go soak up the sun, stroll along white sand beaches
and feel the rhythm with the heartbeat.
Speaker 4 (10:05):
Of the Islands.
Speaker 5 (10:06):
The USVII is America's Caribbean paradise. Playing your winter escape
now at visit USVII dot com. That's visit USVII dot com.
Speaker 4 (10:16):
It's Mike and Chuck here on the Finite. It's Mike
and Chuck here on the Financial Exchange and you know,
I just wanted to wish all of our listeners in
one of our newer affiliates, Portland, Maine, a very happy
and healthy holiday season and a terrific new year. Thank
you for being with us this year. All the best
in twenty twenty six. Before we get to our top
next story of twenty twenty six.
Speaker 3 (10:38):
Let's talk a little bit about this latest development in
the Paramount unsolicited bid for Warner Brothers Discovery. Paramount amended
its offer with Larry Ellison agreeing to personally guarantee forty
point four billion dollars of equity financing for the deal,
(10:58):
and also published records related to the family trust that
backstops the deal. They did not make any changes to
their offer price, but pretty much saying, Okay, you told
us you want Ellison to personally backstop the deal.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
Great, he's going to do that.
Speaker 3 (11:15):
Not one hundred percent, because again the deal is larger
than forty point four billion dollars, but about a forty
percent guarantee on the deal.
Speaker 4 (11:24):
Kind of sounds exactly like what Warner brother was asking for.
Next comments, right, So it reminds me, yes, call your bluff.
Speaker 3 (11:31):
It reminds me of so this Tucker, can we fire
up the time machine, Stata.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
We don't have to go back too far.
Speaker 3 (11:36):
We're gonna go back to uh maybe twenty twenty one,
and uh, look, it's a personal story, but I just
find it kind of humorous. Wife and I were bidding
on a house in twenty twenty one, which, if anyone
will tell you, was a bad idea because twenty twenty
one was like the most competitive housing market ever. We
came in and we made, you know, an offer, and
(11:58):
they said, okay, you know, you got to give us
ex do and you know, we said, okay, like that
seems reasonable, like we'd left ourselves a little room to negotiate.
And then they said, now you've got to wave your
contingencies and we said, no, you asked us for six
dollars more and we're we're doing those and we're keeping
our contingencies in place because gee, we kind of want
to inspect the place and you know, look around, and hey,
(12:20):
if financing falls through, I don't want to personally be
you know, on the hook for more money than I have,
which is why I'm borrowing the money. So g no,
that's not gonna work. Lo and Behold, they were like no,
you have to do this, and we were like, no, like,
we're not going to continue jumping through hoops. We're not
gonna bid against ourselves. This is dumb. If you have
a better offer, take it otherwise, like we're out. The
place ended up sitting for about maybe three months after this,
(12:43):
and this is in twenty one, so you know that
they had screwed up a little bit and eventually went
for about five percent under what we had offered. So
this brings me back to this point here, which is
got to make you feel good quite honestly. The Shorten
fraud thanks was strong, yeah with that one, But I digress.
(13:03):
In any case, we've got a situation here where Warner
Brothers Discovery pretty much you know, came out and said, hey,
we don't like your offer because it's not personally guaranteed
by Larry Ellison enough and we don't have enough info
ins to the financials of that trust that he says
is going to back this. And Larry Ellison said, fine, here,
(13:24):
I'm gonna personally guarantee forty point four billion dollars, which
I got to admit not nothing significant amount of money,
and on top of it, you know, publish a bunch
of information on what's in his trust that he doesn't
have to publish. So my view, right, my view on
(13:46):
this is quite honestly, he basically called Warner Brothers Discoveries bluff.
Speaker 4 (13:51):
Yeah, and.
Speaker 3 (13:54):
It kind of raised the stakes now to where, in
my opinion, Netflix has to give some kind of improvement
to the deal otherwise it creates the appearance for shareholders
who remember this is where it went directly too, that
Warner Brothers Discovery board is not interested in dealing with
Ellison and may miss out on a better deal as
(14:16):
a result of that.
Speaker 4 (14:17):
Now, remember, even with all of this, the math on
these deals seems to be that the Netflix one is
still a little bit richer, but much more complicated. The
company has to be split up into two different entities,
it's going to take longer to accomplish. And so yes,
Netflix may have offered a little bit more money on
(14:37):
the surface. We're talking in billions of dollars, so I
guess it's not a little bit more money. They offered
more money on the surface, but there is much more
uncertainty when it comes to that deal. What is this
entity actually going to be worth? But by the time
we sell it off because Netflix does not want the
network television part of this.
Speaker 2 (14:56):
They have no interested in TBSTNT and.
Speaker 4 (14:58):
All that stuff. And oh yeah. I mean, if you
are the board now of Warner Brothers, either you have
some bias towards the Netflix deal that you didn't really
tell shareholders about, or you have to seriously consider this
now that it's been backstopped.
Speaker 3 (15:13):
So if I'm Netflix, which remember, if you look at this,
paramount is bidding thirty dollars a share for all of
Warner Netflix is bidding twenty seven to seventy five for
most of not the not the cable stuff. And so
you know, does that mean Netflix just has to come
back and be like, Okay, well up are offered to
twenty eight bucks a share like that that might be
(15:35):
enough to.
Speaker 2 (15:35):
You know, get it over the hump.
Speaker 3 (15:37):
It might be twenty eight I don't know what it is,
but it does create the appearance of negotiating in bad
faith if Larry Elson basically did everything that you told
him to and you're like, no, we're still not interested.
Speaker 4 (15:55):
Now, this was not It's not as though Warner Brothers
came out and said the only reason we're not doing
this deal is because we have suspicions about this, but
they made.
Speaker 2 (16:02):
A pretty big deal of it, correct.
Speaker 4 (16:04):
You know, there were other reasons they preferred the Netflix bid,
but they made a fairly big deal of the stability
of the Paramount bid, and I think all of those
concerns have been done away with now.
Speaker 3 (16:17):
And this also then gets at Okay, if you're looking
at this as a deal that is going to need
federal government approval, which newsflash, it will, then you can't
really have allegations of you know, not being in the
best interest of shareholders, you know, lurking here, which is
another reason why I think Netflix probably has to do
(16:38):
something to up its offers. So this continues to be
a very juicy story that I just I can't get
enough of.
Speaker 4 (16:46):
It's playing out exactly the way that you would hope
a good Hollywood drama does.
Speaker 2 (16:52):
Right, Yeah, which will stream oment I'm on the edge.
Speaker 4 (16:55):
Of my seed and eventually, yeah, you're right, they will
make a They almost certainly make a doctor. You better
about this very sure.
Speaker 3 (17:01):
Tune in eighteen months from now for the documentary about
this on whoever wins Warner Brothers.
Speaker 4 (17:07):
Discovery or loses. We'll see.
Speaker 2 (17:10):
The losers might have to forfeit their right to it. Yeah,
I'm kidding. I don't think that.
Speaker 3 (17:15):
I don't think you can forfeit a right to a
documentary that hasn't been produced yet, but one would hope
that you could because it would just tie into this nice,
juicy drama. The US Coast Guard is chasing another oil
tanker from Venezuela.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
Uh, it would.
Speaker 4 (17:34):
Be easy to catch.
Speaker 2 (17:37):
That fast, Like, you can't really hide one.
Speaker 3 (17:39):
They're they're they're carrying a bunch of oil, so they're
they're pretty slow.
Speaker 4 (17:44):
It's not much of a test for the US Coast Guard.
Speaker 2 (17:46):
Well here's the thing, Jim. Can you get a look
at this. What do you think that is over there?
Speaker 4 (17:53):
Fishing boat or oil tanker?
Speaker 2 (17:54):
So here's the thing.
Speaker 3 (17:55):
It's the ship is Bellow one, which was sanctioned by
the US back in twenty four. This is now again
the third tanker that they are trying to blockade. And
look this to me, I mean, we can talk about
whether or not this has anything to do with Venezuela,
because I'm not convinced it does. The longer this goes on,
(18:18):
it might have something to do with Venezuela, but only
insomuch as it really is.
Speaker 2 (18:24):
About Russia, China, Iran. In my opinion, Venezuela.
Speaker 4 (18:30):
Is just easy target for it.
Speaker 3 (18:32):
It's something where Venezuela is geographically isolated relative to the
other three and economically and militarily weaker than the other three,
and so they're kind of getting the.
Speaker 2 (18:45):
Short end of the stick on this.
Speaker 3 (18:47):
Yeah, But I think the piece that I continue to
be curious about is given China's lack of hesitation in
deploying restrictions on rare earth exports multiple times this year,
(19:07):
I'm a little surprised that we haven't seen it from
them on this, to be honest.
Speaker 4 (19:12):
Yeah, they speak out for the first time on this
over the weekend.
Speaker 3 (19:18):
Pay attention to what people do, not what people say,
you know, and so there are a few different ways
you can potentially read that, and I just find that interesting.
Let's take a quick break. When we return, it's Wall
Street Watch.
Speaker 1 (19:40):
Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter at
TFE show. Breaking business news is always first right on
the Financial Exchange Radio Network. Time now for Wall Street
Watch a complete look at what's moving market so far
today right here on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 5 (20:01):
Markets are beginning the shortened holiday week in positive territories,
Investors all wait more economic data points, including durable goods
and third quarter GDP, due out this week. Right now,
the Dial is up nearly four tenths of a percent,
or one hundred and seventy five points higher. S and
P five hundred up over four tenths of a percent
to twenty nine points higher. Nasdaq also up about four
(20:22):
tenths of a percent or ninety three points. Russell two
thousand is up one point two percent, Tenure tris reeled
up one basis point at four point one sixty seven
percent sixty seven, and crude oil is up two and
a half percent higher, trading just below fifty eight dollars
a barrel. Another development in an ongoing story this morning
(20:43):
in the bidding war for Warner Brothers Discovery, Paramount is
now admitted its offer for Warner Brothers, where Larry Ellison
agreed to personally guaranteed forty point four billion dollars of
equity financing for the deal. Netflix shares down nearly one percent,
Paramount stock is up seven percent, while Warner Brothers Discovery
is rising about three percent. Meanwhile, workplace products maker Sentas
(21:07):
has submitted another offer to acquire smaller uniform supplier Universe,
after nearly four years of failing to complete a deal.
This time, sint Us is bidding five point two billion
dollars and is vowing to make sure the transaction clears
any regulatory hurdles by including a sizable break feed to
sweeten the deal. Sintas up one percent, while Universe shares
(21:30):
are rallying twelve percent. Elsewhere, Reuters is reporting that Nvidia
intends to begin shipping its H two hundred ships to
China by mid February. However, uncertainty remains as China has
yet to approve any H two hundred purchases, so the
timeline could shift. And Video shares are up over one percent,
and China's Baydo is teaming up with ride haling companies
(21:50):
Uber in Lyft to begin trials of self driving vehicles
in the UK. Both Uber and Lyft or up anywhere
between three and four percent. I'm Tucker Silva and that
is Wall Street. Watch and subscribe now to our YouTube page.
Will you find daily interviews in full shows of the
Financial Exchange. You'll get caught up on anything and everything
(22:11):
you might have missed right here on the Financial Exchange
just search the Financial Exchange on YouTube and hit that
subscribe button.
Speaker 2 (22:20):
Piece of the New York Times.
Speaker 3 (22:21):
The economy survived twenty twenty five, but many Americans are reeling,
and this gets it something that I wanted to kind
of like discuss from the last segment because we were
talking about, you know, whether.
Speaker 4 (22:34):
Or not the economy was bad over the last three years.
Is that what you're getting as, Yeah, well, here's.
Speaker 3 (22:37):
The thing for the last five years now really six okay,
twenty twenty one, twenty two, twenty three, twenty four, twenty five.
There hasn't been a single one of those that has
just been easy for Americans. There have been different reasons
(22:59):
in each one, but there hasn't been a single one
where you've just been like, Okay, we can just chill.
Twenty twenty, I think we can all agree. Twenty twenty
was a little bit disrupted. Twenty twenty one. Hey, we're
getting everybody back to work. But guess what as we
do that try to get anything, and you can't remember
(23:19):
all like the delays we had getting stuff.
Speaker 4 (23:21):
Yeah my mirrors, yes, never showed.
Speaker 3 (23:24):
Your mirrors, my chairs, like things along those lines. You know,
there were lines eight months long for grills in twenty
twenty one, twenty twenty two, all of that backlog turned
into inflation that kind of sucked for all of us,
didn't it.
Speaker 4 (23:38):
Yep.
Speaker 3 (23:38):
Twenty twenty three, Silicon Valley bank fails. You've got these
bank failures. You got questions about, you know, is inflation
actually gonna come down? Because core is still running north
a five percent halfway or almost halfway through the year.
Speaker 2 (23:52):
Not exactly the most comfortable. Twenty twenty four.
Speaker 3 (23:55):
You can make a case twenty four is the closest
that we've come to normal, but you still had a
slowing labor market, and you still had inflation hanging out
around three. But twenty four you can at least point
to and be like, Okay, maybe we were like kind
of getting close there this year. Interestingly enough, like you
look at inflation, it still is around three, but like
(24:18):
it hasn't gone up up, up up up.
Speaker 4 (24:20):
Yep.
Speaker 3 (24:22):
The unemployment rate is rising. I know, we say it's
four and a half percent, but it doesn't matter like
where it is, it matters where it's come from.
Speaker 4 (24:28):
Yeah, in January, we're at four to six.
Speaker 3 (24:31):
Now, and you will get a lot of underlying data
and it's consistent with an unemployment rate that is one
to two percent higher. You know, like a lot of
the jolts rates are back at where they were in
twenty thirteen to twenty fifteen. Sure, and that's not that's
not a great labor market. And so like you look
at all this and on top of that, then you
throw you know, kind of the tariff chaos of the
(24:52):
first half of the year into the equation and it's like, okay,
twenty five has you know, been kind of messy, even
though we're you know, tracking for you know, mid mid
to low two's on GDP growth. And so I guess
the point that I'll make on this is it's just
(25:13):
been an exhausting six years for Americans financially, and it's
just like you just getting keep getting bludgeoned by one
thing after another.
Speaker 2 (25:21):
Yeah, and you know, I know.
Speaker 3 (25:24):
That we always like to be like, hey, if you
took an economist and drop them into twenty five and
said unemployments you know, four point five percent and inflations
two six how good would you say the economy is?
They'd undoubtedly be like great. But the problem is, like
it loses the context of.
Speaker 4 (25:41):
It's been a really we've lived through societal pace of change,
I think, and people are.
Speaker 3 (25:46):
Now also reeling with like is Ai going to replace me?
And will the robots kill my family?
Speaker 4 (25:52):
Yeah, that's kind of what I mean. Like, you take
a look at where we've come from over the last
five years, and it's been a very rapid pace of change,
from pandemic to inflation that we haven't seen in fifty
some odd years, to now a brand new technology that
has people spoot, and it's it's understandable why people are
reeling in some ways.
Speaker 2 (26:13):
The counter to this.
Speaker 3 (26:17):
Is, aside from the nineteen nineties specifically, like late nineties
ninety five through two thousand, Like what period would you
pick to live in from an economic perspective? Aside from
like there in maybe like nineteen fifty four through sixty one,
(26:40):
Like you cause, listen, like those two periods were fantastic.
Sure you could even I'll even give you like twenty
eighteen and twenty nineteen because things were pretty darn good then.
But aside from that, it's kind of like, okay, like
the last one hundred and fifty years of recorded history,
maybe the norm is that things are always kind of nuts,
(27:02):
and that's that's unfortunately just how it is.
Speaker 4 (27:06):
Yeah, cause and while you can point to a few
periods in time where economically maybe things were a little
bit easier, there are plenty of questions then still yeah,
there's still like really big messiness like nineteen fifties, what
did you say, nineteen fifties as an example.
Speaker 2 (27:22):
Like late late fifties, you can pretty.
Speaker 4 (27:24):
Ugly concerns about Cold War back then, and it's just
weird even economically, like like there's.
Speaker 2 (27:30):
No guarantee what was going to turn out the way.
Speaker 4 (27:32):
It would nineteen nineties AIDS epidemic. Yeah, there's always been
no no, But I'm talking like I know you're talking economically,
but you know, if I'm broadening it out a little bit,
I feel as though people get very stressed and concerned
about the end of society as we know it. And
when we do that, I think it's important to take
(27:54):
a step back and like study history a little bit,
because there's rarely been a time where things are been great.
Well it's and again broadening it out from economically here
for a moment like oh, yeah, I wish I had
grown up in the nineteen twenties. Well, you know, Polio
Shire sucked well, and so did the Great Depression.
Speaker 3 (28:12):
Yeah, you know, and fine, you could grow up in
the nineteen twenties, but there's no guarantee you're gonna live
till the nineteen thirties, and when you do, it kind
of sucks.
Speaker 2 (28:20):
And by the way, then the forties were worse.
Speaker 4 (28:23):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (28:23):
Yeah, So, and actually I'd like to open this up
to the text line six one seven three six two
thirteen eighty five, because this is like a question that
I always love to ask. Pick a time that you
would rather live in than right now.
Speaker 4 (28:42):
In the past. Right.
Speaker 3 (28:44):
Well, I mean you could pick in the future, but
we're like the jury's gonna be out on that, so
it'll just be uninteresting. Yeah, and I'm talking like full life.
You don't get to pick like three years and be like, oh,
I'd like to live from nineteen seventy three through nineteen
seventy six. Please, No, Like, you don't get to do that.
You you get to live a full eighty year lifespan,
but you have to go through all of the stuff
(29:05):
without knowing how it's going to unfold, and like without
knowing that it's going to be okay. So six one seven,
three six two thirteen eighty five. Tell me a time
that you think was a better time to be born.
Give me the specific birth year, and I will tell
you why you're wrong. Six one, seven, three, six, two,
(29:29):
thirteen eighty five.
Speaker 2 (29:31):
Let's take a.
Speaker 3 (29:31):
Quick break when we come back now. I can't do
another K shaped piece right now. I appreciate it, talker,
but we we we need to save it, Professor. We
gotta live the Give the other letters some some space
as well. Let's talk a little bit about mortgage rates
and the impact on housing.
Speaker 1 (29:46):
After this, find daily interviews in full shows of the
Financial Exchange on o our YouTube page. Subscribe to our
page and get caught up on anything and everything you
might have missed. This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
This is your home for the most comprehensive coverage of
the economy and the trends on Wall Street. Face is
the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 5 (30:13):
The Financial Exchange is a proud partner of the Disabled
American Veterans Department of Massachusetts. Planning is well underway for
the twenty twenty six DAV five K. If you weren't
able to attend this year's race, but would still like
to help our great American heroes, please visit DAV fivek
dot Boston and make a donation. Your participation helps provide
(30:34):
vital services like free transportation to medical appointments and safe
housing for single veterans and their families. Donate today at
DAV fivek dot Boston. That's DAV fivek dot Boston.
Speaker 3 (30:46):
Nearly thirty million households are about fifty four percent of
primary mortgage holders have mortgage rates at or below forty percent.
For whatever, below four percent, I'm sorry I added a
decimal somehow there. And so this gets us to, you know, again,
(31:06):
something we've talked about this year, which is for a
lot of those people, if they don't have to move,
they look at the financials and kind of say, I'm
not sure about it.
Speaker 4 (31:16):
We've got a poster hanging in our studio on the
five d's of housing, which are divorced, downsizing, diapers, diamonds,
and death. And somebody commented on it the other day
because it's just they're in the studio for an interview
and it's become such a fixture that I don't even
notice it anymore. But how long is that going to
be relevant to us? So how long are we going
to be talking about the motivators for finally getting people
(31:38):
to sell their homes.
Speaker 2 (31:39):
In terms of like mortgage lock Yeah.
Speaker 3 (31:41):
The so Mike Simonson, who we interviewed last week, he did,
he's got a whole video up actually on like next
year's predictions on the housing market.
Speaker 2 (31:51):
You can even think.
Speaker 3 (31:52):
Compass has the report that you can download. It's like
forty pages and some odd. Basically where he gets to
is ei year, you see about two to three million
of those lower mortgage rates that still do end up
turning over, okay, just because you know, people say, okay,
like we've got to you know, move for whatever reason.
(32:15):
And it's it's still lower volume than you'd like to see.
Actually I think it was one point five to two million,
I think he said. And so where you get to
on this is that once those turnover and you're into
a new mortgage, like, you're free then for future movement
and everything. And so basically his outline is three to
(32:38):
five years from now, this is going to be far
less impactful, right, but you still have to get through
that next three to five years. And so I think
that as we traverse that time, it's going to start
unlocking again.
Speaker 2 (32:51):
More inventory and more turnover. But it still is going
to be slow there. So I think that we're talking the.
Speaker 4 (33:00):
Five days of Housing for for a little while. You're
gonna be hanging here in our studio.
Speaker 3 (33:03):
Yeah, And so ultimately it gets back to the point
that we've talked about, you know, for the last few months,
which is housing is going to work through this affordability problem,
most likely over a two to three year period in
which you're probably not going to see much national home
price appreciation. Hopefully incomes continue to rise, you know, two
(33:28):
to four percent a year during that time, and somewhere
in that twenty twenty eight through twenty twenty nine, maybe
twenty thirty range, the housing market is going to be
back to normal.
Speaker 4 (33:41):
We at the armstore advisor grove frequently, I mean questions
about financial planning, very often surround where you live your home.
You know, it's oftentimes one of your biggest assets as
well as one of your biggest liabilities, and we frequently
get all sorts of questions about where do I live,
what are the tax rates where I live? Is this
(34:03):
the right place for me? You know, as I age,
Should I be looking at relocating? How do I unlock
all of this equity that I've built in my home,
or you know, how do I successfully downsize? And I
think it surprises some people that that is a big
focus of ours, but it speaks to the fact that,
you know, financial planning does not just involve investing. It
(34:27):
really involves every aspect of your financial life. And if
you've been considering a new home purchase or a relocation,
or you're heading to retirement and you're not sure if
where you are now is going to be sustainable. Maybe
you're considering paying off your mortgage early because you're getting
to that retirement date, or buying a new home and
are worried about being a sixty year old with a
(34:48):
new mortgage, which we see frequently. Please give the folks
at Armstrong a call to let us help you build
out that overall financial strategy and appropriately assess, Hey, what
is the best thing to do. Should I be putting
in these big improvements to my home before I retire
and so that I've got the cash flow to fund
them now, or should I put them off because I'm
considering a move down the road? The number is eight
(35:11):
hundred three nine three for zero zero one. As you're
putting together your New Year's resolutions. Put one on that
list about easing your financial concerns for the new year.
The phone number again for the Armstrong Advisory Group eight
hundred three nine three for zero zero one.
Speaker 1 (35:30):
The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal or tax advice. Consult
your own financial tax into state planning advisors before making
any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
advisory services.
Speaker 5 (35:45):
Got one text Chuck for a well you would want
to ideally live in in terms of the era or
the year, somebody said, nineteen seventy nineteen.
Speaker 3 (35:54):
So born in nineteen seventy. Okay, So if you're born
in nineteen seventy, the good news is that you're probably
pretty oblivious through the inflation.
Speaker 2 (36:02):
Of the nineteen seventies. Yeah, you might pick up on
a little bit of it, but not a ton.
Speaker 3 (36:07):
Then you go through the nineteen eighties in your teenage years, Yeah,
it's probably fine, And then you end up in the
nineteen nineties. So you come of age in the nineteen nineties,
as you know, a worker, good time, but then you
get hit by the tech bubble, the financial crisis.
Speaker 4 (36:27):
And so let's say, if you're born in nineteen seventy,
how old were you for the twenty two thousands decade.
You were thirty years old for that, so kind of
peek into your teak into your career, your peak earnings,
you might be getting like whacked crushed. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (36:43):
So again, like my point of this, there's always like problems.
There's no perfect time to be born. And yeah, nineteen seventy,
I can actually buy is like probably one of the
better times to be born in the last one hundred
and fifty years. But also you're still dealing with multiple
(37:03):
financial crises during your peak earning years.
Speaker 4 (37:06):
I mean, I can make a case for my decade
of birth in the nineteen eighties, I was too young
to feel the real job and home ownership ramifications of
the Great Financial Crisis or the tech bubble yep. And
therefore when I actually qualified for a job and had earnings,
home affordability was pretty darn good in the twenty tens decade,
(37:28):
So I can make a case for that. But then again,
millions of my same cohort had an incredibly difficult time
finding that job. I got lucky.
Speaker 3 (37:37):
Oh, Also, okay, here's my other pushback on nineteen seventy,
because I was thinking just economically nineteen seventy. In the
early nineteen nineties, you are twenty years old. Decent chances
are ending up in Gulf War, Decent chances are ending
up in the War on Terror, decent like you could have,
you know.
Speaker 2 (37:55):
Some really bad experiences that you have to live through.
Speaker 3 (37:58):
And this is just talking about you know, nineteen the America,
which again I can't do the whole world, but there's
some real problems that you could still end up facing,
you know, in terms of things that you may be
very much impacted by, but keep them coming. Six point
seven three six two thirteen eighty five. Tell me, other
than today, what's the best year that you think you
(38:19):
could be born? Take a quick break here when we
come back hour two.
Speaker 4 (38:24):
Just a bit
Popular Podcasts
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.