October 6, 2025 • 38 mins
Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong discuss the ongoing power shift in the housing market. Where are buyers getting good deals? Amazon's October Prime Days start Tuesday. It's an early test for the holidays. The youth crisis is really about to the rise of the NEETs. Stabucks's roller coaster week of job cuts and store closures.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Financial Exchange is produced by Money Matters Radio and
is hosted by employees of the Armstrong Advisory Group, a
registered investment advisor. All opinions expressed are solely those of
the hosts. Do not reflect the opinions of Armstrong Advisory
or anyone else. Investments can lose money. This program does
not offer any specific financial or investment advice. Please consult
your own financial, tax, and estate planning advisors before making
(00:20):
any investment decisions. Armstrong Advisory and the advertisers heard on
this program do not endorse each other or their services.
Armstrong and Money Matters Radio do not compensate each other
for referrals and are not affiliated. This is the Financial
Exchange with Chuck Zada and Mike Armstrong, Your exclusive look
at business and financial news affecting your day, your city,
(00:42):
your world. Stay informed and up to date about economic
and market trends plus breaking business news every day. The
Financial Exchange is a proud partner of the Disabled American
Veterans Department of Massachusetts. Help us support our great American
heroes by visiting dav five K Boston and making a
donation today. This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck Zada,
(01:06):
and Mike Armstrong.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
Chuck Mike Tucker with you here and kicking things off.
We've got markets mixed dish, but mostly up. Quite honestly,
if you don't include the Dow, which you know my
thoughts on the Dow. Dow was off zero point one
seven down eighty two points right now, the S and
P is up a quarter percent eighteen points, and the
nasdak can posit up half a percent about one hundred
(01:34):
and nine points. This movement largely happening due to what's
going on in the semiconductor industry, where this morning open
AI said, Hey, AMD, guess what, We'll buy a bunch
of chips from you if you give us a bunch
of stock in your company if we buy those chips,
and so the circular train of money continues throughout the
(01:59):
AI and semiconductor space with you know this again, it
seems like we have kind of weekly announcements on this
kind of stuff.
Speaker 3 (02:08):
And.
Speaker 2 (02:10):
It's honestly gotten to the point where I don't know
where the money's going to come from in the future,
but in the case where they don't have the money,
they'll make it up with shares. I guess is where
we are right now. Because if you take a look
at shares, are sure where something whether they are until
they're not, yes, you know. And again it's not that
AMD is gonna go out of business, I'm not suggesting that,
(02:30):
but you never know how much they're going to be worth,
and you never know if open Ai is actually going
to have the money to do any of this. So
when I look at AMD, the reason they can't do
the deal that in Vidia did is that AMD has
about five billion dollars in cash, and this is like
a thirty to fifty billion dollar deal that open Ai
is signing with them. Hence, they can do it using
(02:51):
you know, shares, but they can't do it with cash.
Whereas if you take a look at in Video right now,
and Video is sitting on fifty six billion dollars with
free cash fille of seventy two billion dollars a year,
they can easily figure out how to get one hundred
billion dollars to open Ai over the next five years.
Uh huh. So that's what's going on in equity markets,
bond market. We got a little bit of a sell
(03:12):
off there this morning, but it's kind of being tempered now.
Tenure Treasury is up two point one basis points to
four point one four percent. This is not due to
anything that's happening domestically in the United States, but rather
in Japan. We've got a new prime minister there who
basically is in favor of what I would call abe
nomics on steroids. Hey, let's you know, weeke in the end.
Let's pump money into the system and try to grow
(03:33):
the Japanese economy. Japanese long term bonds are blowing out
to the upside, and so globally you're seeing a little
bit of a yield move up as well. But again,
a couple basis points in the US, not anything huge
to write home about. Oil West Texas Intermediate up forty
two cents a barrel to sixty one thirty. No big
moves there. But let me tell you about where we're
still seeing big moves, and that is in gold. What's
(03:56):
that spell, Michael go correct up seventy dollars in ten
ten cents an ounce almost two percent of God, thank
you very much, to thirty nine seventy eight and thirty cents.
That is an all new, all time high. Obviously, if
it's an all time high, it has to be all
new and we're within about half a percent of four
thousand dollars per ounce for the first time ever. So
(04:20):
even though bonds aren't screaming currency debasement, gold is absolutely
screaming that with what's going on in Japan, and you know,
even translating it into dollar terms, you got a meaningful
move there as well. For people who are fans of
you know, other pressures medals you don't just like the gold,
maybe your silver good, maybe platinum, maybe palladium, many of
these idioms, you know, whatever they are. Hey, those are
(04:43):
all up to silver up a dollar I'm sorry one percent,
platinum up one point five, and palladium up four percent.
Speaker 4 (04:50):
So those gold investors are having their day forty eight
percent dollar return on gold.
Speaker 2 (04:55):
So far this year, it's it's been strong to quite strong.
Let's talk about something that is not strong to quite strong,
the housing market and specifically kind of the power shift
that's happening where Look in twenty twenty one and even
early twenty two, I would struggle to find any states
as a whole that had buyer's markets greed. It was
(05:18):
as cellarific as you could possibly find. I mean, this
was when you have the stories of Hey, guess what,
We're going to an open house this weekend. Oh, like,
how was it? There were eight hundred people there, there
were seventy two offers, forty six were all cash, and
it eventually went for all cash sixty eight percent above
asking price. Yeah, like that was not too exaggerated. Actually, ye,
(05:41):
today that's not the case. And specifically, we've got a
piece here from a fast company talking about where you
are seeing the biggest shift from buyer to seller I'm sorry,
from seller to buyer markets. What are we seeing, Mike?
Speaker 4 (05:57):
Well, unsurprisingly here, the big shift is in some of
the markets that we have talked about, where the inventory
levels have been have been ticking up pretty substantially. I
think one other stat that I want to mention, Chuck
So in September of twenty nineteen, the total listings according
to realter dot com, we're sitting at one point two
two million.
Speaker 2 (06:17):
Yep. September twenty twenty five, we're at one point one.
And to put this in perspective, at twenty twenty one
levels we were at about five hundred and fifty thousand,
so about half of where we are today.
Speaker 4 (06:28):
Right, So, look everywhere across the country, the one year
inventory upticks are are pretty you know, they're substantial really
across the country. New York is the smallest one here
at only four percent.
Speaker 2 (06:41):
But there's nowhere that's down. There's nowhere that's down.
Speaker 4 (06:43):
Even Connecticut, that we talk about quite a bit, is
still up year over year. The problem why I don't
love this chart that you know, whoever this company Fast
Company put together is it doesn't give you the larger context. Like,
so Connecticut here September twenty twenty five, Yeah, inventories up
year over year seven and a half percent compared to
(07:05):
twenty nineteen.
Speaker 2 (07:06):
It's down seventy percent. Yes.
Speaker 4 (07:08):
Florida, on the other hand, up year over year and
up twenty two percent since twenty nineteen. And so those
are the factors that I consider a little bit more interesting.
But Maryland, you know, inventory just year over year up
forty six percent. Nevada year over year inventory up thirty
two percent, Washington State up twenty five percent. So these
(07:28):
are some meaningful year of year shifts that we're seeing
in some of those states. Others that we've talked about before, Florida, Texas,
the meaningful shift has really been over the last few years.
And what you're seeing now compared to September of twenty nineteen.
Is there are a number of states that now have
more inventory than pre pandemic.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
Oh, yeah, a lot of them. It's basically, if you
trying to think of what shape this is, what's kind
of a nice like sloping. It's not a sea, but
it's a like it's like a down slope. I don't know,
if you basically do a nice little downslope from Washington
State through Florida, that's kind of the path this follows.
(08:06):
So Washington State is an example, has twenty five percent
more inventory than twenty nineteen. Idaho up twenty one percent,
Utah up twenty two percent, Colorado up twenty nine, Arizona
twenty eight, Texas up thirty one, Oklahoma up nine, Tennessee
up thirty five. Yeah, you've got you know, Florida's up
(08:27):
twenty three. So those are like the big ones. You
got a few others that are within sniffing distance, but
by the spring are likely to start, you know, being
up pretty significantly in that. You know, the Carolinas are
basically flat compared to pre pandemic, same with Alabama. Georgia
still down five percent compared to pre pandemic. Don't think
that'll be the case next year. And California also seeing
(08:49):
rapid moves up in inventory, up twenty one percent this year,
now down seven percent compared to twenty nineteen levels. That's
probably gonna go positive as well. The Northeast and Midwest,
on the other hand.
Speaker 4 (09:03):
I was gonna say, what is the trend here? What
do these states have in common? I'm which ones like
Florida and Washington State do not have a lot in common. Politics,
so both on the coast, Yeah.
Speaker 2 (09:16):
They can both get large amounts of rain in a
short period of time, and.
Speaker 4 (09:22):
Politics, economic developments like nothing else really seems to have
a lot in common between these two. But you know,
housing inventories that are similar. Likewise, like you know, Maine
and North Dakota, other than really crappy decembers, don't share
a lot in common. And so I don't know what
it is that is put this situation together other than
(09:44):
I think it's moborratory patterns. Yeah, like that's the only
if you want what this has in common. Through twenty
twenty two, people moved out of the Northeast and Midwest
and went south and west.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
Yeah. Yeah, And now that's like the inventory's building because with.
Speaker 4 (10:02):
Some exceptions, right, like apparently they didn't go to New
Mexico they preferred Arizona.
Speaker 2 (10:07):
No, they did not go to Louisiana.
Speaker 4 (10:09):
They did not go to Louisiana. They went to Texas
or Florida, Mississippi. Same story, like you know, just different patterns,
and I can see it like Tennessee. Yeah, I do
know people that went to Nashville during COVID and really
you know, laid down roots there.
Speaker 2 (10:23):
But it's tough to look through these and pick up
some semblance of a real I think, quite honestly, it's
it's the places that were hip to move three four
years ago are now hip to move out of. And
it's for different reasons. By the way. Some of it
is probably due to people saying, Okay, I can't you know,
work remote anymore and I need to you know, leaven YadA, YadA.
(10:46):
Some of it is, hey, my property taxes are going
up and my insurance premiums tripled. No, I'm not going
to do this anymore, like the dollars don't work the
way they used to. I'm gonna move somewhere else. The
ones in those regions that didn't pick people, quite honestly. Look,
I love Louisiana. I was there three weeks ago. I
try to go to Louisiana once every year or two
(11:07):
just because I love it down there. Despite that, I
can see why it's not everyone's cup of tea. You know,
it's aside from New Orleans, which quite honestly seems like
a great place to visit. But I think I would
be dead in like five days if I lived there
with all of the food I would eat. It doesn't
(11:30):
have the hubs and the places that the people were
attracted to back in twenty twenty one and twenty two.
So I think you can see it where you say, yeah,
I understand why Mississippi and Louisiana didn't pick up the
population then, but Texas and Florida did. I can see
why Arizona did, but New Mexico didn't. Like this this
(11:50):
clicks for me, just kind of intuitively. But the problem
is that this stuff is spreading, and it's going to
spread to the Northeast and Midwest as well. It's just
gonna be on more of a delayed few. I think
where we end up is the next five to seven years.
I don't think you see the housing market fall apart.
I don't think prices really go anywhere because home prices
(12:12):
need to see incomes catch up in real terms, and
that's just gonna take time, a couple percentage points a
year where hey, incomes grow two to three percent and
home prices stay flat. And that's the mechanism that makes
this up. Because we don't see signs of overleverage in
the housing market. Nope, we don't see signs of distress
amongst mortgages and things like that. So it's not gonna
(12:34):
be that home prices go down like ten to fifteen percent.
It's not two thousand and seven. It's just, Hey, it's
an affordability crisis where you're just gonna have to see
incomes grow their way out of it, and that might
take five to seven years when it happens, and some areas,
like local locally, you could see problems in some areas
you already have to this point. Yeah, let's take a
(12:56):
quick break. When we come back, we've got trivia and
then gosh, I'm just getting kind of tired of Amazon
holding prime events every couple months. Not me, Chuck, And
I just wonder if it says something about the fact
that they have to keep doing like if every day's
Prime Day is any day prime, Nowaday is prime Day.
Let's discuss when we return.
Speaker 1 (13:17):
The Financial Exchange is now available every day from eleven
to noon non Serious XM's Business Radio channel one thirty two.
Stay informed about the latest from Wall Street, fiscal policy,
and breaking business news. Every day. The Financial Exchange is
live on Serious EXMS Business Radio Channel one thirty two.
This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network. Find daily interviews
(13:39):
and full shows of the Financial Exchange on our YouTube page.
Subscribe to our page and get caught up on anything
and everything you might have missed. This is the Financial
Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 3 (13:52):
A hike time for trivia here on the Financial Exchange uh.
The NASDAC peaked at five thousand and forty eight on
March tenth, two thousand. From March tenth, two thousand to
October ninth, two thousand and two, the index fell seventy
seven point nine percent. It took many years before the
(14:13):
NASDAK reclaimed its March tenth, two thousand high. So our
trivia question today how many years did it take for
the index to reclaim its closing high once again? How
many years did it take for the Nasdaq to reclaim
its closing high. Be the second person today to text
us at six one seven three six two thirteen eighty
(14:35):
five with the correct answer, you'd win a Financial Exchange
Show T shirt.
Speaker 2 (14:39):
Once again.
Speaker 3 (14:39):
The second correct response to text us to the number
six one seven three six two thirteen eighty five will
win that T shirt. See complete contest rules at Financial
Exchange Show dot com.
Speaker 2 (14:52):
Mike, do we want to talk? What is that Amazon piece?
I know it's I don't know what I did with it,
but Amazon is having a couple more deal days this week.
What are they called? It's not Prime Days there, No,
it's sat on the second page near the top. Prime
is Big Deal Days. There you go, Big Deal Days.
So here's the thing. I remember when Prime Day first happened.
(15:14):
It was maybe ten twelve years ago, and it was
in July, and it was like, oh, here's Prime Day.
This is different because it's not happening around Holiday's shop
and Season's happened in the middle of the summer. And
that's all well and good Like it's fine, and to
be fair, like I thought you could find like some
good deals occasionally. Now what I see more often than not.
(15:35):
Is they're having like these things three or four times
a year, and so it's kind of like, well, why
would I do it this time. On top of that,
it's unclear to me whether you're actually getting deals on
a lot of these products or not, because they change
the pricing so often that you might not be.
Speaker 4 (15:51):
And Yeah, therefore I challenged the premise of this article.
Amazon's Prime Event is a test of holiday shopping demand.
I don't really think so. I don't think it is
relevant at all. In fact, if I go to Wirecutter,
it's a it's a tech review site owned by the
New York Times.
Speaker 2 (16:06):
If you're not familiar, Uh.
Speaker 4 (16:07):
They started with just tech reviews. I'm looking at it.
They have like pages on the best shirts that are
out there. I see no mention whatsoever of deals on
this Prime Deal Day event.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
It's one of their tabs.
Speaker 3 (16:21):
Says prime Day.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
Do you know the big one of the top says
Prime Day.
Speaker 3 (16:23):
On the left, this is not what I'm saying, says
the eighty plus best.
Speaker 2 (16:29):
See how mine has this whole menu across the top?
Can you refresh yours? Are you just a wirecutter dot
comor do you go somewhere else. I went to New
York Times. Do wirecutter dot com. Try just wirecutter dot com. Yeah, man,
I'm telling you this is what happened to me. Well,
this is the problem with tech. It's the very first Oh, Michael,
your computer's broken. No, my again, mine redirects me to this.
(16:51):
Click click on the menu, click on the menu. Did
you do the H T T P? Yeah? I have
to go through some weird menu to get attention to it. Yeah,
Mike's screen saws a purrently is registering his screen as
a mobile is assumed into like two fifty or something.
Are you still do you wear your readers? I'm at
one ten, one ten. There you go, Michael, is the
whole time? Look at that?
Speaker 4 (17:12):
And it is the first tab okay. Apparently, apparently Wirecutter.
Speaker 2 (17:16):
Cares, Tucker, can you throw us back in time thirty
seconds so that we can redo that. I think we're
gonna need a little bit of help here. The only
people that care about this Amazon Prime Day deal a
Wirecutter apparently. So if you go to the front page
of Wirecutter, you can see that Prime Day is the
first thing listened, which means it must be a huge deal.
Speaker 4 (17:36):
Yeahs eighty plus best Prime Day Deals. I'm sorry, folks. Again,
I had zoomed in on my browsers, so apparently that
didn't come up.
Speaker 2 (17:46):
Yeah. I don't know. I don't know that anybody cares
about well, and some of this, like you look at
and I kind of go, okay, is this actually a
deal even I'll give you just an example here, Like
some of them, you can look at it like okay,
like sure that that saves you? Okay. I got to
be honest here. First thing I came to, what is
a fabric shaver? Why would I need to shave my fabric?
Speaker 3 (18:10):
Is that the thing that has the pills for sweaters?
Speaker 2 (18:13):
Yeah? Yeah, what is that? We got one of those? Yeah?
You have one? Yeah? Sure, I don't use it my way.
I have one. You should. I do like sweater.
Speaker 4 (18:21):
Frequently wear sweaters and they always got those little frills
on them. Uh.
Speaker 2 (18:26):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (18:26):
I don't know that this is going to indicate much
for Amazon. I'm with you on the.
Speaker 2 (18:31):
Like facial moisturizer with SPF thirty, Okay, this is actually
really funny. So this is on their Prime Big Deal
Days sixteen dollars from Amazon, or you can get it
for eleven from Target. This is what I mean, Like,
what are we doing here?
Speaker 4 (18:49):
I will say one thing that Amazon is doing. Well,
did you guys get your like Fall Amazon catalog?
Speaker 3 (18:55):
I did, Yeah, we get two of them.
Speaker 4 (18:57):
Yeah, my kids get pumped when Amazon sees them those catalogs,
whether it's the Christmas one, almost was a Halloween one
they dive in, So something that went away for quite
some time and Amazon's kind of brought it back and
created some excitement among some demographic.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
I dread it, but my kids get pretty pumped. Mike.
Half the stuff on this list is listing prices that
are cheaper than Amazon, and you should go somewhere else. Yeah,
that's what I love. Why which is wild? Let's take
a quick break. When we come back, we got Wall
Street watch the trivia answer, and then we're talking about Neats.
Speaker 1 (19:39):
Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio. Every day,
It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Time now for Wall Street. Watch a complete look at
what's moving market so far today right here on the
Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 3 (19:59):
Well, a new week is upon us, and the government
shutdown continues to drag on. However, the big news of
the day surrounds a massive computing deal between open ai
and AMD. Right now, markets are mixed. The Dow is
down by a tenth of a percent, or seventy six
points lower, SMP five hundred is up three tenths of
(20:19):
one percent or twenty one points, Nasdaq up one hundred
and twenty nine points or nearly six tenths of one percent.
Russell two thousand up by one percent at the moment,
Tenure Treasure reeled up four basis points now and it's
currently at four point one six percent, and crude oil
up one point three percent, trading at sixty one dollars
and seventy one cents a barrel. Open ai and AMD
(20:42):
agreed to a multi billion dollar partnership to collaborate on
AI data centers that will run on AMD processors. AMD
surging twenty six percent on the Newswault competitor in videos
pulling back about one percent. Treser will continue to watch
for more develop it's from open ai this afternoon during
its annual dev Day event, which will feature announcements, keynotes
(21:05):
from executives in a chat between CEO Sam Altman and
longtime Apple designer Jony Ive. Meanwhile, Pallenteers, rebounding four percent
after its stumble. On Friday, the data analysis company pushed
back against a Reuters report about security flaws in a
communications platform designed for the US Army. Elsewhere, Fifth Third
(21:27):
ban Corp. Announced a ten point nine billion dollar all
stock deal to buy regional Bank America. Fifth third shares
are now flat, while Kamerica stock is jumping fifteen percent
and Tesla rising almost four percent after the electric car
maker teased a product launch announcement on X with tomorrow's date,
(21:48):
leading to increasing speculation about the release of a new car.
I'm Tucker Silva and that is Wall Street Watch. And
in the previous segment, we asked you the trivia question,
how many years did it take for the Nasdaq reclaim
its closing high? It'll be fifteen. The index didn't reclaim
it's March tenth, two thousand closing high until April twenty
(22:08):
third of twenty fifteen. Ed from Falmouth, Mass is our
winner today taking on a Financial Exchine Show T shirt.
Congrats to Ed, and we played trivia every day here
in the Financial Exchange. See complete contest rules at Financial
Exchange Show dot com.
Speaker 2 (22:22):
Mike, what's a neat.
Speaker 4 (22:24):
A neat is an acronym for not employed, enrolled, or
in training neat.
Speaker 2 (22:30):
No, it doesn't sound very neat. Not So this is
talking specifically. This is a piece from Bloomberg and it's
talking about these they're referring to this group as neat.
Any ets, so not in school, not in some sort
of training program, and doesn't have a job. And in
twenty twenty four, twelve percent of sixteen to twenty four
(22:51):
year olds were neats. And this is not great when
one in eight people in age sixteen to twenty four
isn't in school, isn't working, or not in a training program.
Speaker 4 (23:03):
Where do they get that number? By the way, this
twelve percent number, the unemployment rates only ten and a half.
Speaker 2 (23:09):
So this is what the I believe Federal Reserve Bank
of Saint Louis found. Okay, all right, fair, it's what
they reference here at least. Okay, here's what the study
from the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis found. Women
actually make up a slightly larger share than men. There's
been a lot of speculation online that it's just a
(23:30):
bunch of like seventeen year old men just like sitting
in their basement playing video games. It's not. It's fifty
one and a half percent women, forty eight and a
half percent men, which is basically the proportion that you have,
like if you look at the overall popular Actually, no,
that's for college age population. It's a little higher that way,
but in any case, it's basically fifty to fifty seventy
percent of needs have a high school degree or less,
(23:54):
which makes sense because generally, if you are aged sixteen
to twenty four, most of you you don't already have
a college degree. And when you will get the percentage
of people that are, you know, generally in that age
demo trying to get a college degree, it varies between
like fifty and sixty percent, So it makes sense that
most of you know, this group does not have a
(24:14):
college degree. A quarter come from families with less than
twenty five thousand in income. I don't know if that's
statistically significant at all. It's like, okay, Like I don't
know that matters. More live in rural areas compared to
metro or cities twenty point two percent compared to fifteen
point six in metro areas seventeen point one in cities.
(24:37):
The lowest rate was amongst white youth, while the highest
was amongst black youth, So rural.
Speaker 4 (24:44):
I mean, there's definitely a farming crisis going on right
now and problems, but this is twenty four Yeah, So
here's where my mind went is they called this a crisis,
and I was like, you know, bless you. I remember
a particularly high unemployment stage when niels were entering the
workforce and they got some of them got so pissed
off that they literally pitched tents in front of banks
(25:06):
and did this whole Occupy Wall Street thing. I remember
because I was working for one of the financial service
companies that they were protesting, and so I was like,
why isn't that demo doing that sort of thing this time?
Generally speaking, the youth unemployment rate is a not a
bad indicator of social unrest and other sorts of problems.
And when I looked at it, I came to the
(25:28):
conclusion that the unemployment rate for youth being a ten
and a half percent, which is where it was as
of the most recent read, is just not that high.
Speaker 2 (25:39):
I wasn't the data.
Speaker 4 (25:41):
I pulled the data for two thousand through twenty twenty five,
so twenty five years of data, we were only under
ten and a half percent youth unemployment.
Speaker 2 (25:51):
You know, since twenty twenty one, we've been under there.
We were under there starting in twenty sixteen through twenty nineteen.
Other than that, we've been pretty much over ten percent
for twenty five years. Yeah, in two thousand and you
know eleven, when Occupy Wall Street was going on, it
was seventeen percent. It hit a.
Speaker 4 (26:11):
Peak back in twenty ten of youth unemployment. This is
of nineteen and a half percent. Throughout the early two thousands,
post dot com era, it was twelve thirteen percent. And
so I'm not saying this isn't a problem. It is
a problem. I'm just saying that it's actually fairly normal
for what we became used to prior to the really
(26:33):
raging economy of the late twenty tens and post COVID.
Speaker 2 (26:36):
I think what you can say is the problem, though,
is that the trend is up. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (26:40):
Yeah, if it's trending the wrong direction, it's a it's
a real problem because that could indicate something a lot
worse for the future.
Speaker 2 (26:45):
You know, if we're what's the lows that we got
down to.
Speaker 4 (26:48):
The low that I saw during this cycle was in
twenty twenty three when this hit six point six percent
pre COVID the low was like, yeah, nearly eight.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
So even it looks like we kind of for most
of the last couple of years like hit a low
of a round eight, but that was just like one
or two readings. Yeah, so if you've now gone from
like eight two you said ten and a half, Yeah,
it's a big jump. Okay, if that's happened in the
last two years, then if we're gonna be at thirteen
a couple of years from now, if this keeps going
that way, you start looking at it, you go, yeah,
like this that's the stuff that gives you the not
(27:21):
good feeling about.
Speaker 3 (27:23):
So there's that The US Virgin Islands aren't just stunning.
They're thriving and continue to be one of the hottest
spots for vacationers in the Caribbean.
Speaker 2 (27:33):
New cruise port.
Speaker 3 (27:35):
Upgrades, better air connections, and as sharper focus on cultural
experiences have put the islands back on the map for
travelers seeking something special. Saint Thomas is your cruise hub,
known for duty free shopping in the world famous Magan's Bay.
Saint John is pure escape with National Park hikes secluded
beaches in tropical tranquility. Saint Croix brings the history with
(27:58):
the colonial architecture, old sugar mills and vibrant coral reefs.
Visit one island or all three and get plenty of pampering,
undisturbed nature, and a vibe like no other, all jammed
into one vacation. With the easy travel from New England,
no passport required, in no money to exchange. Paradise is
(28:18):
closer than you think this fall, plan your getaway and
fall naturally in rhythm with the heartbeat of the islands
in America's Caribbean. Visit USVII dot com and book your
trip today. That's visit USVII dot com.
Speaker 4 (28:35):
By the way, Chalck, I mean, if there is one
statistic that I'd be willing to bet the White House
is obsessed over right now, it's that one that youth
unemployment ray. Like again, that's not where the spending power is,
that's not where the driver of the stock market is.
But if you want to avoid protests in the street,
you keep that number low.
Speaker 2 (28:54):
It's true.
Speaker 4 (28:54):
And so when I think about things like the White
House calling for lower interest rates doing what they can
to spur or the economy back into growth mode. I
where I them would be focusing on that one item,
because again, what happened in the early twenty tens when
youth unemployment hit them mid to high teens. You had
protests in the street all over the country. You had
(29:16):
people pitching tents for weeks and months outside of investment
banks in New York City like you. I'm not saying
that those were well organized or well thought of protests
that actually resulted anything, but they did happen, and I
would blame the primary thing for why they happened on
youth unemployment.
Speaker 2 (29:35):
I completely agree, totally agree.
Speaker 4 (29:37):
When young kids don't have jobs, they don't have a
lot to lose when it comes to breaking the law,
and you know, developing all sorts of protests.
Speaker 2 (29:47):
Yeah, I want to talk a little bit about berries
because Tucker put this piece in the stack today and
now we all know this one was for YouTube. I
was just like, oh hi, I am, I am definitely
scene here. So it's titled Barry There America's top selling
fruit and every Parent's grocery bill nightmare. And granted it
wasn't Berry's yesterday, this is the Subpetter Berry spending top
(30:08):
twelve billion in the last year. Many parents feel like
their own kids accounted for all of it. So yesterday
grocery shopping day, pop over to BJ's in the morning
because this is the only place where I can get
sufficient quantities of fruits and vegetables for my kids without
you know, spending a million dollars. Now and get home,
and daughter says dad. We always this is not a
(30:31):
fruit thing. But you know the little miniature bell peppers
that they sell, Now I do. That's our pepper of
choice at this point. Got it, We got homes. She
goes deck. Can I have a pepper? Sure? Why not? Okay? Okay?
She eats the pepper deck. Can I have two more? Well,
why don't you just do one more? No? I think
I can do two. Okay, fine, here's two more. Wash them,
(30:53):
hand them over, pounds them down deck. Can I have
three more? You want three more?
Speaker 1 (31:00):
Now?
Speaker 2 (31:02):
Okay? Here you go again, chuck. What a wonderful problem
to have. It is. But this is also why I
have to buy four pound bags of peppers for like
eight dollars now, is because otherwise you can't shop at
a conventional grocery store for children. True, but it's gonna
save you a lot on your diabetes mets down the road.
It will. The problem that every parent then faces is, Okay,
(31:24):
how can you eat like any meat, especially at these prices?
But it's neither here nor there, So ultimately you've just
got a case where like, of course you a survey
of two hundred and thirty seven parents for a kid
to eat a carton of berries takes between one and
two to three days, which is totally true. And the
problem is this stuff is not cheap, especially like you
(31:47):
start getting into the raspberries and the blackberries, which honestly
are only good for like two or three days anyways
before they start going bad. You know what I've really
converted myself to over the last year or so, Melons,
apples and oranges are the way to go. Melon's huh,
Melons I do. I buy the whole thing, and I
(32:08):
cut the whole thing up on day one so that
I'm not, you know, having to slice it all the time.
Speaker 4 (32:12):
He's cutting them up into berries shaped quantities, and he's
poking them with little needles to make them even look
like a berry.
Speaker 2 (32:18):
I guess with with my art skills that would end
very poorly. But I really think like I've tried to
move away from berries because honestly, they go bad so
much more quickly, and they're so freaking expensive. It's nuts.
Speaker 3 (32:32):
Oh, it's it's it's really bad in our household, and
it's it's strawberries, it's blueberries, you name it, we got it.
Speaker 2 (32:40):
And the thing I'll say about apples, they last for
freaking ever, Yeah they do. And honestly, especially this time
of year in the New England region, they're delicious because
they're from here. So there's that too. Just take a
quick break when we come back. Stack Roulettes.
Speaker 1 (32:57):
The Financial Exchange streams live on YouTube. Subscribe to our
page and stay up to date on breaking business news
all morning long. Face is the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
The Financial Exchange is life on Series XM's Business radio
channel one thirty two weekdays from eleven to noon. Get
the latest business and financial news from across the country
(33:19):
and around the world, and keep up to date on
how it might affect your wallet. That's The Financial Exchange
weekdays from eleven to noon on Series XM's Business Radio
channel one thirty two. Face is the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 3 (33:34):
This year's dav five K is sold out, but you
can still help our great American heroes. The race is Saturday,
November eightha Castle Island and you can visit dav five
k dot Boston to make a donation of any amount
to support our troops. Your gifts help fund free rides
to medical appointments for veterans in the nation's first dav
(33:54):
ledhousing initiative providing homes for single veterans and veteran families.
Go to dav five k dot Boston and make your
donation today.
Speaker 2 (34:05):
Mike, what do you got for stack Roulette?
Speaker 4 (34:07):
Starbucks they have been working on Project bloom, which is
just a really nice word for we're closing stores and
firing people.
Speaker 2 (34:16):
Like the opposite of blooming. Yeah, it does.
Speaker 4 (34:19):
It seems like what's it called when the vines and dies,
something like that. Now hopefully it's you know, chopping off
some of those poisoned flowers to make the whole plant
bloom a little bit better. But this has been a
bit of a roller coaster for the quote turnaround that
Brian Nichol is trying to orchestrate over at Starbucks. I
(34:41):
said July that there was going to be a review
of these stores, and yeah, the company owned eleven four
hundred and fifty stores in the United States and Canada
as of June twenty ninth. We will see just how
many of them end up being closed. But I've seen
this in the city of Boston, I've seen it elsewhere.
And yeah, the Wall Street Journal apparently got a hold
(35:03):
of some of the emails. Quote, we regret to inform
you that we no longer have a position available for
you at Starbucks. We wish you all the best in
your future endeavors. And Starbucks, I'll say this about them,
I feel as though, and at some points during Starbucks
they really tried to create this family like environment among
(35:24):
their employees. And all that I'll say about this is
it's not impossible to occur at a company, but there's
a pretty high bar that the company needs to reach
before you should buy into that idea. I think companies
employ you because they need labor. They pay you for
that labor. And if you're ever being told like, ah,
we really need you to kick it in on the weekend,
(35:45):
you know, be part of the team.
Speaker 2 (35:47):
My answer has always been pay me yes.
Speaker 4 (35:51):
And you know, I think that people kind of came
to that realization with Starbucks over the course the last
few years, as they've needed to drive a harder line
and the show that they can still be profitable and they're
not just some social experiment. But I feel like sometimes
people kind of get caught off guard by that this
is a for profit company that whose share price has
(36:14):
been absolutely demolished over the last few years, and they
are going to be cutthroat when they need to be
when they feel they need to be cutthroat. And so
don't misidentify your work with your identity or passion in
most cases, I think needs to be the point that
I would make here.
Speaker 2 (36:30):
Yes, as Don Draper once said, that's what the money's for. Yeah,
you know, it's the deal. I want to talk about
this piece from the New York Times, craft breweries struggle
as sales and appetites. Wane is at a craft brewery
on Saturday, and basically what happened is look a decade ago,
(36:52):
there were forty eight hundred craft breweries in the country.
Now there are ninety nine hundred, so they've doubled. The
problem is that taste change, and it's unclear that this
is anything more than a fad. Albeit you know, it's
slower moving one. It's not something where it's just you know,
over and done quickly. But you're seeing taste changing, and
(37:13):
even with younger generations, their view on alcohol is changing
as well. And I gotta be honest, I will say
for the worst really yes, oh, like the amount of
literature that's out there now that like gen zers will
not even socially drink because they believe alcohol is that
bad to you. I'm a big believer that part of
the reason that we're not really getting along very well
(37:36):
with each other is we don't really socially drink with
each other enough and like actually learn just to talk
to other humans instead of just yelling at them on
social media. And so that seems like more of a
social problem than an alcohol problem. But it's both. Alcohol
look for all of its problems, and it has many.
From a health perspective, I don't disagree. But what if
it's actually the thing that keeps us from going completely
insane as a society. I mean, there's a reason why
(37:58):
it's persisted across mo Nia despite the fact that it's
not great for you, is the fact that maybe it
kind of holds us all together if done in moderation,
and you know occasionally like if you go too far
in either direction. I don't think it's necessarily great for
everything in moderation, including moderation the conglomerate. Yeah, let's take
a quick break for the entire rest of the day,
(38:20):
and we're going to see it tomorrow on the financial exchange.
Who's still not shut down?
The Financial Exchange is produced by Money Matters Radio and
is hosted by employees of the Armstrong Advisory Group, a
registered investment advisor. All opinions expressed are solely those of
the hosts. Do not reflect the opinions of Armstrong Advisory
or anyone else. Investments can lose money. This program does
not offer any specific financial or investment advice. Please consult
your own financial, tax, and estate planning advisors before making
(00:20):
any investment decisions. Armstrong Advisory and the advertisers heard on
this program do not endorse each other or their services.
Armstrong and Money Matters Radio do not compensate each other
for referrals and are not affiliated. This is the Financial
Exchange with Chuck Zada and Mike Armstrong, Your exclusive look
at business and financial news affecting your day, your city,
(00:42):
your world. Stay informed and up to date about economic
and market trends plus breaking business news every day. The
Financial Exchange is a proud partner of the Disabled American
Veterans Department of Massachusetts. Help us support our great American
heroes by visiting dav five K Boston and making a
donation today. This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck Zada,
(01:06):
and Mike Armstrong.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
Chuck Mike Tucker with you here and kicking things off.
We've got markets mixed dish, but mostly up. Quite honestly,
if you don't include the Dow, which you know my
thoughts on the Dow. Dow was off zero point one
seven down eighty two points right now, the S and
P is up a quarter percent eighteen points, and the
nasdak can posit up half a percent about one hundred
(01:34):
and nine points. This movement largely happening due to what's
going on in the semiconductor industry, where this morning open
AI said, Hey, AMD, guess what, We'll buy a bunch
of chips from you if you give us a bunch
of stock in your company if we buy those chips,
and so the circular train of money continues throughout the
(01:59):
AI and semiconductor space with you know this again, it
seems like we have kind of weekly announcements on this
kind of stuff.
Speaker 3 (02:08):
And.
Speaker 2 (02:10):
It's honestly gotten to the point where I don't know
where the money's going to come from in the future,
but in the case where they don't have the money,
they'll make it up with shares. I guess is where
we are right now. Because if you take a look
at shares, are sure where something whether they are until
they're not, yes, you know. And again it's not that
AMD is gonna go out of business, I'm not suggesting that,
(02:30):
but you never know how much they're going to be worth,
and you never know if open Ai is actually going
to have the money to do any of this. So
when I look at AMD, the reason they can't do
the deal that in Vidia did is that AMD has
about five billion dollars in cash, and this is like
a thirty to fifty billion dollar deal that open Ai
is signing with them. Hence, they can do it using
(02:51):
you know, shares, but they can't do it with cash.
Whereas if you take a look at in Video right now,
and Video is sitting on fifty six billion dollars with
free cash fille of seventy two billion dollars a year,
they can easily figure out how to get one hundred
billion dollars to open Ai over the next five years.
Uh huh. So that's what's going on in equity markets,
bond market. We got a little bit of a sell
(03:12):
off there this morning, but it's kind of being tempered now.
Tenure Treasury is up two point one basis points to
four point one four percent. This is not due to
anything that's happening domestically in the United States, but rather
in Japan. We've got a new prime minister there who
basically is in favor of what I would call abe
nomics on steroids. Hey, let's you know, weeke in the end.
Let's pump money into the system and try to grow
(03:33):
the Japanese economy. Japanese long term bonds are blowing out
to the upside, and so globally you're seeing a little
bit of a yield move up as well. But again,
a couple basis points in the US, not anything huge
to write home about. Oil West Texas Intermediate up forty
two cents a barrel to sixty one thirty. No big
moves there. But let me tell you about where we're
still seeing big moves, and that is in gold. What's
(03:56):
that spell, Michael go correct up seventy dollars in ten
ten cents an ounce almost two percent of God, thank
you very much, to thirty nine seventy eight and thirty cents.
That is an all new, all time high. Obviously, if
it's an all time high, it has to be all
new and we're within about half a percent of four
thousand dollars per ounce for the first time ever. So
(04:20):
even though bonds aren't screaming currency debasement, gold is absolutely
screaming that with what's going on in Japan, and you know,
even translating it into dollar terms, you got a meaningful
move there as well. For people who are fans of
you know, other pressures medals you don't just like the gold,
maybe your silver good, maybe platinum, maybe palladium, many of
these idioms, you know, whatever they are. Hey, those are
(04:43):
all up to silver up a dollar I'm sorry one percent,
platinum up one point five, and palladium up four percent.
Speaker 4 (04:50):
So those gold investors are having their day forty eight
percent dollar return on gold.
Speaker 2 (04:55):
So far this year, it's it's been strong to quite strong.
Let's talk about something that is not strong to quite strong,
the housing market and specifically kind of the power shift
that's happening where Look in twenty twenty one and even
early twenty two, I would struggle to find any states
as a whole that had buyer's markets greed. It was
(05:18):
as cellarific as you could possibly find. I mean, this
was when you have the stories of Hey, guess what,
We're going to an open house this weekend. Oh, like,
how was it? There were eight hundred people there, there
were seventy two offers, forty six were all cash, and
it eventually went for all cash sixty eight percent above
asking price. Yeah, like that was not too exaggerated. Actually, ye,
(05:41):
today that's not the case. And specifically, we've got a
piece here from a fast company talking about where you
are seeing the biggest shift from buyer to seller I'm sorry,
from seller to buyer markets. What are we seeing, Mike?
Speaker 4 (05:57):
Well, unsurprisingly here, the big shift is in some of
the markets that we have talked about, where the inventory
levels have been have been ticking up pretty substantially. I
think one other stat that I want to mention, Chuck
So in September of twenty nineteen, the total listings according
to realter dot com, we're sitting at one point two
two million.
Speaker 2 (06:17):
Yep. September twenty twenty five, we're at one point one.
And to put this in perspective, at twenty twenty one
levels we were at about five hundred and fifty thousand,
so about half of where we are today.
Speaker 4 (06:28):
Right, So, look everywhere across the country, the one year
inventory upticks are are pretty you know, they're substantial really
across the country. New York is the smallest one here
at only four percent.
Speaker 2 (06:41):
But there's nowhere that's down. There's nowhere that's down.
Speaker 4 (06:43):
Even Connecticut, that we talk about quite a bit, is
still up year over year. The problem why I don't
love this chart that you know, whoever this company Fast
Company put together is it doesn't give you the larger context. Like,
so Connecticut here September twenty twenty five, Yeah, inventories up
year over year seven and a half percent compared to
(07:05):
twenty nineteen.
Speaker 2 (07:06):
It's down seventy percent. Yes.
Speaker 4 (07:08):
Florida, on the other hand, up year over year and
up twenty two percent since twenty nineteen. And so those
are the factors that I consider a little bit more interesting.
But Maryland, you know, inventory just year over year up
forty six percent. Nevada year over year inventory up thirty
two percent, Washington State up twenty five percent. So these
(07:28):
are some meaningful year of year shifts that we're seeing
in some of those states. Others that we've talked about before, Florida, Texas,
the meaningful shift has really been over the last few years.
And what you're seeing now compared to September of twenty nineteen.
Is there are a number of states that now have
more inventory than pre pandemic.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
Oh, yeah, a lot of them. It's basically, if you
trying to think of what shape this is, what's kind
of a nice like sloping. It's not a sea, but
it's a like it's like a down slope. I don't know,
if you basically do a nice little downslope from Washington
State through Florida, that's kind of the path this follows.
(08:06):
So Washington State is an example, has twenty five percent
more inventory than twenty nineteen. Idaho up twenty one percent,
Utah up twenty two percent, Colorado up twenty nine, Arizona
twenty eight, Texas up thirty one, Oklahoma up nine, Tennessee
up thirty five. Yeah, you've got you know, Florida's up
(08:27):
twenty three. So those are like the big ones. You
got a few others that are within sniffing distance, but
by the spring are likely to start, you know, being
up pretty significantly in that. You know, the Carolinas are
basically flat compared to pre pandemic, same with Alabama. Georgia
still down five percent compared to pre pandemic. Don't think
that'll be the case next year. And California also seeing
(08:49):
rapid moves up in inventory, up twenty one percent this year,
now down seven percent compared to twenty nineteen levels. That's
probably gonna go positive as well. The Northeast and Midwest,
on the other hand.
Speaker 4 (09:03):
I was gonna say, what is the trend here? What
do these states have in common? I'm which ones like
Florida and Washington State do not have a lot in common. Politics,
so both on the coast, Yeah.
Speaker 2 (09:16):
They can both get large amounts of rain in a
short period of time, and.
Speaker 4 (09:22):
Politics, economic developments like nothing else really seems to have
a lot in common between these two. But you know,
housing inventories that are similar. Likewise, like you know, Maine
and North Dakota, other than really crappy decembers, don't share
a lot in common. And so I don't know what
it is that is put this situation together other than
(09:44):
I think it's moborratory patterns. Yeah, like that's the only
if you want what this has in common. Through twenty
twenty two, people moved out of the Northeast and Midwest
and went south and west.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
Yeah. Yeah, And now that's like the inventory's building because with.
Speaker 4 (10:02):
Some exceptions, right, like apparently they didn't go to New
Mexico they preferred Arizona.
Speaker 2 (10:07):
No, they did not go to Louisiana.
Speaker 4 (10:09):
They did not go to Louisiana. They went to Texas
or Florida, Mississippi. Same story, like you know, just different patterns,
and I can see it like Tennessee. Yeah, I do
know people that went to Nashville during COVID and really
you know, laid down roots there.
Speaker 2 (10:23):
But it's tough to look through these and pick up
some semblance of a real I think, quite honestly, it's
it's the places that were hip to move three four
years ago are now hip to move out of. And
it's for different reasons. By the way. Some of it
is probably due to people saying, Okay, I can't you know,
work remote anymore and I need to you know, leaven YadA, YadA.
(10:46):
Some of it is, hey, my property taxes are going
up and my insurance premiums tripled. No, I'm not going
to do this anymore, like the dollars don't work the
way they used to. I'm gonna move somewhere else. The
ones in those regions that didn't pick people, quite honestly. Look,
I love Louisiana. I was there three weeks ago. I
try to go to Louisiana once every year or two
(11:07):
just because I love it down there. Despite that, I
can see why it's not everyone's cup of tea. You know,
it's aside from New Orleans, which quite honestly seems like
a great place to visit. But I think I would
be dead in like five days if I lived there
with all of the food I would eat. It doesn't
(11:30):
have the hubs and the places that the people were
attracted to back in twenty twenty one and twenty two.
So I think you can see it where you say, yeah,
I understand why Mississippi and Louisiana didn't pick up the
population then, but Texas and Florida did. I can see
why Arizona did, but New Mexico didn't. Like this this
(11:50):
clicks for me, just kind of intuitively. But the problem
is that this stuff is spreading, and it's going to
spread to the Northeast and Midwest as well. It's just
gonna be on more of a delayed few. I think
where we end up is the next five to seven years.
I don't think you see the housing market fall apart.
I don't think prices really go anywhere because home prices
(12:12):
need to see incomes catch up in real terms, and
that's just gonna take time, a couple percentage points a
year where hey, incomes grow two to three percent and
home prices stay flat. And that's the mechanism that makes
this up. Because we don't see signs of overleverage in
the housing market. Nope, we don't see signs of distress
amongst mortgages and things like that. So it's not gonna
(12:34):
be that home prices go down like ten to fifteen percent.
It's not two thousand and seven. It's just, Hey, it's
an affordability crisis where you're just gonna have to see
incomes grow their way out of it, and that might
take five to seven years when it happens, and some areas,
like local locally, you could see problems in some areas
you already have to this point. Yeah, let's take a
(12:56):
quick break. When we come back, we've got trivia and
then gosh, I'm just getting kind of tired of Amazon
holding prime events every couple months. Not me, Chuck, And
I just wonder if it says something about the fact
that they have to keep doing like if every day's
Prime Day is any day prime, Nowaday is prime Day.
Let's discuss when we return.
Speaker 1 (13:17):
The Financial Exchange is now available every day from eleven
to noon non Serious XM's Business Radio channel one thirty two.
Stay informed about the latest from Wall Street, fiscal policy,
and breaking business news. Every day. The Financial Exchange is
live on Serious EXMS Business Radio Channel one thirty two.
This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network. Find daily interviews
(13:39):
and full shows of the Financial Exchange on our YouTube page.
Subscribe to our page and get caught up on anything
and everything you might have missed. This is the Financial
Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 3 (13:52):
A hike time for trivia here on the Financial Exchange uh.
The NASDAC peaked at five thousand and forty eight on
March tenth, two thousand. From March tenth, two thousand to
October ninth, two thousand and two, the index fell seventy
seven point nine percent. It took many years before the
(14:13):
NASDAK reclaimed its March tenth, two thousand high. So our
trivia question today how many years did it take for
the index to reclaim its closing high once again? How
many years did it take for the Nasdaq to reclaim
its closing high. Be the second person today to text
us at six one seven three six two thirteen eighty
(14:35):
five with the correct answer, you'd win a Financial Exchange
Show T shirt.
Speaker 2 (14:39):
Once again.
Speaker 3 (14:39):
The second correct response to text us to the number
six one seven three six two thirteen eighty five will
win that T shirt. See complete contest rules at Financial
Exchange Show dot com.
Speaker 2 (14:52):
Mike, do we want to talk? What is that Amazon piece?
I know it's I don't know what I did with it,
but Amazon is having a couple more deal days this week.
What are they called? It's not Prime Days there, No,
it's sat on the second page near the top. Prime
is Big Deal Days. There you go, Big Deal Days.
So here's the thing. I remember when Prime Day first happened.
(15:14):
It was maybe ten twelve years ago, and it was
in July, and it was like, oh, here's Prime Day.
This is different because it's not happening around Holiday's shop
and Season's happened in the middle of the summer. And
that's all well and good Like it's fine, and to
be fair, like I thought you could find like some
good deals occasionally. Now what I see more often than not.
(15:35):
Is they're having like these things three or four times
a year, and so it's kind of like, well, why
would I do it this time. On top of that,
it's unclear to me whether you're actually getting deals on
a lot of these products or not, because they change
the pricing so often that you might not be.
Speaker 4 (15:51):
And Yeah, therefore I challenged the premise of this article.
Amazon's Prime Event is a test of holiday shopping demand.
I don't really think so. I don't think it is
relevant at all. In fact, if I go to Wirecutter,
it's a it's a tech review site owned by the
New York Times.
Speaker 2 (16:06):
If you're not familiar, Uh.
Speaker 4 (16:07):
They started with just tech reviews. I'm looking at it.
They have like pages on the best shirts that are
out there. I see no mention whatsoever of deals on
this Prime Deal Day event.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
It's one of their tabs.
Speaker 3 (16:21):
Says prime Day.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
Do you know the big one of the top says
Prime Day.
Speaker 3 (16:23):
On the left, this is not what I'm saying, says
the eighty plus best.
Speaker 2 (16:29):
See how mine has this whole menu across the top?
Can you refresh yours? Are you just a wirecutter dot
comor do you go somewhere else. I went to New
York Times. Do wirecutter dot com. Try just wirecutter dot com. Yeah, man,
I'm telling you this is what happened to me. Well,
this is the problem with tech. It's the very first Oh, Michael,
your computer's broken. No, my again, mine redirects me to this.
(16:51):
Click click on the menu, click on the menu. Did
you do the H T T P? Yeah? I have
to go through some weird menu to get attention to it. Yeah,
Mike's screen saws a purrently is registering his screen as
a mobile is assumed into like two fifty or something.
Are you still do you wear your readers? I'm at
one ten, one ten. There you go, Michael, is the
whole time? Look at that?
Speaker 4 (17:12):
And it is the first tab okay. Apparently, apparently Wirecutter.
Speaker 2 (17:16):
Cares, Tucker, can you throw us back in time thirty
seconds so that we can redo that. I think we're
gonna need a little bit of help here. The only
people that care about this Amazon Prime Day deal a
Wirecutter apparently. So if you go to the front page
of Wirecutter, you can see that Prime Day is the
first thing listened, which means it must be a huge deal.
Speaker 4 (17:36):
Yeahs eighty plus best Prime Day Deals. I'm sorry, folks. Again,
I had zoomed in on my browsers, so apparently that
didn't come up.
Speaker 2 (17:46):
Yeah. I don't know. I don't know that anybody cares
about well, and some of this, like you look at
and I kind of go, okay, is this actually a
deal even I'll give you just an example here, Like
some of them, you can look at it like okay,
like sure that that saves you? Okay. I got to
be honest here. First thing I came to, what is
a fabric shaver? Why would I need to shave my fabric?
Speaker 3 (18:10):
Is that the thing that has the pills for sweaters?
Speaker 2 (18:13):
Yeah? Yeah, what is that? We got one of those? Yeah?
You have one? Yeah? Sure, I don't use it my way.
I have one. You should. I do like sweater.
Speaker 4 (18:21):
Frequently wear sweaters and they always got those little frills
on them. Uh.
Speaker 2 (18:26):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (18:26):
I don't know that this is going to indicate much
for Amazon. I'm with you on the.
Speaker 2 (18:31):
Like facial moisturizer with SPF thirty, Okay, this is actually
really funny. So this is on their Prime Big Deal
Days sixteen dollars from Amazon, or you can get it
for eleven from Target. This is what I mean, Like,
what are we doing here?
Speaker 4 (18:49):
I will say one thing that Amazon is doing. Well,
did you guys get your like Fall Amazon catalog?
Speaker 3 (18:55):
I did, Yeah, we get two of them.
Speaker 4 (18:57):
Yeah, my kids get pumped when Amazon sees them those catalogs,
whether it's the Christmas one, almost was a Halloween one
they dive in, So something that went away for quite
some time and Amazon's kind of brought it back and
created some excitement among some demographic.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
I dread it, but my kids get pretty pumped. Mike.
Half the stuff on this list is listing prices that
are cheaper than Amazon, and you should go somewhere else. Yeah,
that's what I love. Why which is wild? Let's take
a quick break. When we come back, we got Wall
Street watch the trivia answer, and then we're talking about Neats.
Speaker 1 (19:39):
Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio. Every day,
It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Time now for Wall Street. Watch a complete look at
what's moving market so far today right here on the
Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 3 (19:59):
Well, a new week is upon us, and the government
shutdown continues to drag on. However, the big news of
the day surrounds a massive computing deal between open ai
and AMD. Right now, markets are mixed. The Dow is
down by a tenth of a percent, or seventy six
points lower, SMP five hundred is up three tenths of
(20:19):
one percent or twenty one points, Nasdaq up one hundred
and twenty nine points or nearly six tenths of one percent.
Russell two thousand up by one percent at the moment,
Tenure Treasure reeled up four basis points now and it's
currently at four point one six percent, and crude oil
up one point three percent, trading at sixty one dollars
and seventy one cents a barrel. Open ai and AMD
(20:42):
agreed to a multi billion dollar partnership to collaborate on
AI data centers that will run on AMD processors. AMD
surging twenty six percent on the Newswault competitor in videos
pulling back about one percent. Treser will continue to watch
for more develop it's from open ai this afternoon during
its annual dev Day event, which will feature announcements, keynotes
(21:05):
from executives in a chat between CEO Sam Altman and
longtime Apple designer Jony Ive. Meanwhile, Pallenteers, rebounding four percent
after its stumble. On Friday, the data analysis company pushed
back against a Reuters report about security flaws in a
communications platform designed for the US Army. Elsewhere, Fifth Third
(21:27):
ban Corp. Announced a ten point nine billion dollar all
stock deal to buy regional Bank America. Fifth third shares
are now flat, while Kamerica stock is jumping fifteen percent
and Tesla rising almost four percent after the electric car
maker teased a product launch announcement on X with tomorrow's date,
(21:48):
leading to increasing speculation about the release of a new car.
I'm Tucker Silva and that is Wall Street Watch. And
in the previous segment, we asked you the trivia question,
how many years did it take for the Nasdaq reclaim
its closing high? It'll be fifteen. The index didn't reclaim
it's March tenth, two thousand closing high until April twenty
(22:08):
third of twenty fifteen. Ed from Falmouth, Mass is our
winner today taking on a Financial Exchine Show T shirt.
Congrats to Ed, and we played trivia every day here
in the Financial Exchange. See complete contest rules at Financial
Exchange Show dot com.
Speaker 2 (22:22):
Mike, what's a neat.
Speaker 4 (22:24):
A neat is an acronym for not employed, enrolled, or
in training neat.
Speaker 2 (22:30):
No, it doesn't sound very neat. Not So this is
talking specifically. This is a piece from Bloomberg and it's
talking about these they're referring to this group as neat.
Any ets, so not in school, not in some sort
of training program, and doesn't have a job. And in
twenty twenty four, twelve percent of sixteen to twenty four
(22:51):
year olds were neats. And this is not great when
one in eight people in age sixteen to twenty four
isn't in school, isn't working, or not in a training program.
Speaker 4 (23:03):
Where do they get that number? By the way, this
twelve percent number, the unemployment rates only ten and a half.
Speaker 2 (23:09):
So this is what the I believe Federal Reserve Bank
of Saint Louis found. Okay, all right, fair, it's what
they reference here at least. Okay, here's what the study
from the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis found. Women
actually make up a slightly larger share than men. There's
been a lot of speculation online that it's just a
(23:30):
bunch of like seventeen year old men just like sitting
in their basement playing video games. It's not. It's fifty
one and a half percent women, forty eight and a
half percent men, which is basically the proportion that you have,
like if you look at the overall popular Actually, no,
that's for college age population. It's a little higher that way,
but in any case, it's basically fifty to fifty seventy
percent of needs have a high school degree or less,
(23:54):
which makes sense because generally, if you are aged sixteen
to twenty four, most of you you don't already have
a college degree. And when you will get the percentage
of people that are, you know, generally in that age
demo trying to get a college degree, it varies between
like fifty and sixty percent, So it makes sense that
most of you know, this group does not have a
(24:14):
college degree. A quarter come from families with less than
twenty five thousand in income. I don't know if that's
statistically significant at all. It's like, okay, Like I don't
know that matters. More live in rural areas compared to
metro or cities twenty point two percent compared to fifteen
point six in metro areas seventeen point one in cities.
(24:37):
The lowest rate was amongst white youth, while the highest
was amongst black youth, So rural.
Speaker 4 (24:44):
I mean, there's definitely a farming crisis going on right
now and problems, but this is twenty four Yeah, So
here's where my mind went is they called this a crisis,
and I was like, you know, bless you. I remember
a particularly high unemployment stage when niels were entering the
workforce and they got some of them got so pissed
off that they literally pitched tents in front of banks
(25:06):
and did this whole Occupy Wall Street thing. I remember
because I was working for one of the financial service
companies that they were protesting, and so I was like,
why isn't that demo doing that sort of thing this time?
Generally speaking, the youth unemployment rate is a not a
bad indicator of social unrest and other sorts of problems.
And when I looked at it, I came to the
(25:28):
conclusion that the unemployment rate for youth being a ten
and a half percent, which is where it was as
of the most recent read, is just not that high.
Speaker 2 (25:39):
I wasn't the data.
Speaker 4 (25:41):
I pulled the data for two thousand through twenty twenty five,
so twenty five years of data, we were only under
ten and a half percent youth unemployment.
Speaker 2 (25:51):
You know, since twenty twenty one, we've been under there.
We were under there starting in twenty sixteen through twenty nineteen.
Other than that, we've been pretty much over ten percent
for twenty five years. Yeah, in two thousand and you
know eleven, when Occupy Wall Street was going on, it
was seventeen percent. It hit a.
Speaker 4 (26:11):
Peak back in twenty ten of youth unemployment. This is
of nineteen and a half percent. Throughout the early two thousands,
post dot com era, it was twelve thirteen percent. And
so I'm not saying this isn't a problem. It is
a problem. I'm just saying that it's actually fairly normal
for what we became used to prior to the really
(26:33):
raging economy of the late twenty tens and post COVID.
Speaker 2 (26:36):
I think what you can say is the problem, though,
is that the trend is up. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (26:40):
Yeah, if it's trending the wrong direction, it's a it's
a real problem because that could indicate something a lot
worse for the future.
Speaker 2 (26:45):
You know, if we're what's the lows that we got
down to.
Speaker 4 (26:48):
The low that I saw during this cycle was in
twenty twenty three when this hit six point six percent
pre COVID the low was like, yeah, nearly eight.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
So even it looks like we kind of for most
of the last couple of years like hit a low
of a round eight, but that was just like one
or two readings. Yeah, so if you've now gone from
like eight two you said ten and a half, Yeah,
it's a big jump. Okay, if that's happened in the
last two years, then if we're gonna be at thirteen
a couple of years from now, if this keeps going
that way, you start looking at it, you go, yeah,
like this that's the stuff that gives you the not
(27:21):
good feeling about.
Speaker 3 (27:23):
So there's that The US Virgin Islands aren't just stunning.
They're thriving and continue to be one of the hottest
spots for vacationers in the Caribbean.
Speaker 2 (27:33):
New cruise port.
Speaker 3 (27:35):
Upgrades, better air connections, and as sharper focus on cultural
experiences have put the islands back on the map for
travelers seeking something special. Saint Thomas is your cruise hub,
known for duty free shopping in the world famous Magan's Bay.
Saint John is pure escape with National Park hikes secluded
beaches in tropical tranquility. Saint Croix brings the history with
(27:58):
the colonial architecture, old sugar mills and vibrant coral reefs.
Visit one island or all three and get plenty of pampering,
undisturbed nature, and a vibe like no other, all jammed
into one vacation. With the easy travel from New England,
no passport required, in no money to exchange. Paradise is
(28:18):
closer than you think this fall, plan your getaway and
fall naturally in rhythm with the heartbeat of the islands
in America's Caribbean. Visit USVII dot com and book your
trip today. That's visit USVII dot com.
Speaker 4 (28:35):
By the way, Chalck, I mean, if there is one
statistic that I'd be willing to bet the White House
is obsessed over right now, it's that one that youth
unemployment ray. Like again, that's not where the spending power is,
that's not where the driver of the stock market is.
But if you want to avoid protests in the street,
you keep that number low.
Speaker 2 (28:54):
It's true.
Speaker 4 (28:54):
And so when I think about things like the White
House calling for lower interest rates doing what they can
to spur or the economy back into growth mode. I
where I them would be focusing on that one item,
because again, what happened in the early twenty tens when
youth unemployment hit them mid to high teens. You had
protests in the street all over the country. You had
(29:16):
people pitching tents for weeks and months outside of investment
banks in New York City like you. I'm not saying
that those were well organized or well thought of protests
that actually resulted anything, but they did happen, and I
would blame the primary thing for why they happened on
youth unemployment.
Speaker 2 (29:35):
I completely agree, totally agree.
Speaker 4 (29:37):
When young kids don't have jobs, they don't have a
lot to lose when it comes to breaking the law,
and you know, developing all sorts of protests.
Speaker 2 (29:47):
Yeah, I want to talk a little bit about berries
because Tucker put this piece in the stack today and
now we all know this one was for YouTube. I
was just like, oh hi, I am, I am definitely
scene here. So it's titled Barry There America's top selling
fruit and every Parent's grocery bill nightmare. And granted it
wasn't Berry's yesterday, this is the Subpetter Berry spending top
(30:08):
twelve billion in the last year. Many parents feel like
their own kids accounted for all of it. So yesterday
grocery shopping day, pop over to BJ's in the morning
because this is the only place where I can get
sufficient quantities of fruits and vegetables for my kids without
you know, spending a million dollars. Now and get home,
and daughter says dad. We always this is not a
(30:31):
fruit thing. But you know the little miniature bell peppers
that they sell, Now I do. That's our pepper of
choice at this point. Got it, We got homes. She
goes deck. Can I have a pepper? Sure? Why not? Okay? Okay?
She eats the pepper deck. Can I have two more? Well,
why don't you just do one more? No? I think
I can do two. Okay, fine, here's two more. Wash them,
(30:53):
hand them over, pounds them down deck. Can I have
three more? You want three more?
Speaker 1 (31:00):
Now?
Speaker 2 (31:02):
Okay? Here you go again, chuck. What a wonderful problem
to have. It is. But this is also why I
have to buy four pound bags of peppers for like
eight dollars now, is because otherwise you can't shop at
a conventional grocery store for children. True, but it's gonna
save you a lot on your diabetes mets down the road.
It will. The problem that every parent then faces is, Okay,
(31:24):
how can you eat like any meat, especially at these prices?
But it's neither here nor there, So ultimately you've just
got a case where like, of course you a survey
of two hundred and thirty seven parents for a kid
to eat a carton of berries takes between one and
two to three days, which is totally true. And the
problem is this stuff is not cheap, especially like you
(31:47):
start getting into the raspberries and the blackberries, which honestly
are only good for like two or three days anyways
before they start going bad. You know what I've really
converted myself to over the last year or so, Melons,
apples and oranges are the way to go. Melon's huh,
Melons I do. I buy the whole thing, and I
(32:08):
cut the whole thing up on day one so that
I'm not, you know, having to slice it all the time.
Speaker 4 (32:12):
He's cutting them up into berries shaped quantities, and he's
poking them with little needles to make them even look
like a berry.
Speaker 2 (32:18):
I guess with with my art skills that would end
very poorly. But I really think like I've tried to
move away from berries because honestly, they go bad so
much more quickly, and they're so freaking expensive. It's nuts.
Speaker 3 (32:32):
Oh, it's it's it's really bad in our household, and
it's it's strawberries, it's blueberries, you name it, we got it.
Speaker 2 (32:40):
And the thing I'll say about apples, they last for
freaking ever, Yeah they do. And honestly, especially this time
of year in the New England region, they're delicious because
they're from here. So there's that too. Just take a
quick break when we come back. Stack Roulettes.
Speaker 1 (32:57):
The Financial Exchange streams live on YouTube. Subscribe to our
page and stay up to date on breaking business news
all morning long. Face is the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
The Financial Exchange is life on Series XM's Business radio
channel one thirty two weekdays from eleven to noon. Get
the latest business and financial news from across the country
(33:19):
and around the world, and keep up to date on
how it might affect your wallet. That's The Financial Exchange
weekdays from eleven to noon on Series XM's Business Radio
channel one thirty two. Face is the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 3 (33:34):
This year's dav five K is sold out, but you
can still help our great American heroes. The race is Saturday,
November eightha Castle Island and you can visit dav five
k dot Boston to make a donation of any amount
to support our troops. Your gifts help fund free rides
to medical appointments for veterans in the nation's first dav
(33:54):
ledhousing initiative providing homes for single veterans and veteran families.
Go to dav five k dot Boston and make your
donation today.
Speaker 2 (34:05):
Mike, what do you got for stack Roulette?
Speaker 4 (34:07):
Starbucks they have been working on Project bloom, which is
just a really nice word for we're closing stores and
firing people.
Speaker 2 (34:16):
Like the opposite of blooming. Yeah, it does.
Speaker 4 (34:19):
It seems like what's it called when the vines and dies,
something like that. Now hopefully it's you know, chopping off
some of those poisoned flowers to make the whole plant
bloom a little bit better. But this has been a
bit of a roller coaster for the quote turnaround that
Brian Nichol is trying to orchestrate over at Starbucks. I
(34:41):
said July that there was going to be a review
of these stores, and yeah, the company owned eleven four
hundred and fifty stores in the United States and Canada
as of June twenty ninth. We will see just how
many of them end up being closed. But I've seen
this in the city of Boston, I've seen it elsewhere.
And yeah, the Wall Street Journal apparently got a hold
(35:03):
of some of the emails. Quote, we regret to inform
you that we no longer have a position available for
you at Starbucks. We wish you all the best in
your future endeavors. And Starbucks, I'll say this about them,
I feel as though, and at some points during Starbucks
they really tried to create this family like environment among
(35:24):
their employees. And all that I'll say about this is
it's not impossible to occur at a company, but there's
a pretty high bar that the company needs to reach
before you should buy into that idea. I think companies
employ you because they need labor. They pay you for
that labor. And if you're ever being told like, ah,
we really need you to kick it in on the weekend,
(35:45):
you know, be part of the team.
Speaker 2 (35:47):
My answer has always been pay me yes.
Speaker 4 (35:51):
And you know, I think that people kind of came
to that realization with Starbucks over the course the last
few years, as they've needed to drive a harder line
and the show that they can still be profitable and they're
not just some social experiment. But I feel like sometimes
people kind of get caught off guard by that this
is a for profit company that whose share price has
(36:14):
been absolutely demolished over the last few years, and they
are going to be cutthroat when they need to be
when they feel they need to be cutthroat. And so
don't misidentify your work with your identity or passion in
most cases, I think needs to be the point that
I would make here.
Speaker 2 (36:30):
Yes, as Don Draper once said, that's what the money's for. Yeah,
you know, it's the deal. I want to talk about
this piece from the New York Times, craft breweries struggle
as sales and appetites. Wane is at a craft brewery
on Saturday, and basically what happened is look a decade ago,
(36:52):
there were forty eight hundred craft breweries in the country.
Now there are ninety nine hundred, so they've doubled. The
problem is that taste change, and it's unclear that this
is anything more than a fad. Albeit you know, it's
slower moving one. It's not something where it's just you know,
over and done quickly. But you're seeing taste changing, and
(37:13):
even with younger generations, their view on alcohol is changing
as well. And I gotta be honest, I will say
for the worst really yes, oh, like the amount of
literature that's out there now that like gen zers will
not even socially drink because they believe alcohol is that
bad to you. I'm a big believer that part of
the reason that we're not really getting along very well
(37:36):
with each other is we don't really socially drink with
each other enough and like actually learn just to talk
to other humans instead of just yelling at them on
social media. And so that seems like more of a
social problem than an alcohol problem. But it's both. Alcohol
look for all of its problems, and it has many.
From a health perspective, I don't disagree. But what if
it's actually the thing that keeps us from going completely
insane as a society. I mean, there's a reason why
(37:58):
it's persisted across mo Nia despite the fact that it's
not great for you, is the fact that maybe it
kind of holds us all together if done in moderation,
and you know occasionally like if you go too far
in either direction. I don't think it's necessarily great for
everything in moderation, including moderation the conglomerate. Yeah, let's take
a quick break for the entire rest of the day,
(38:20):
and we're going to see it tomorrow on the financial exchange.
Who's still not shut down?
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
The Joe Rogan Experience
The official podcast of comedian Joe Rogan.