May 9, 2025 • 38 mins
Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong discuss...
A change to real estate commissions was supposed to transform the housing market. That hasn’t happened.
Boy Accidentally Orders 70,000 Lollipops on Amazon. Panic Ensues.
Expedia Shares Fall After Weak Demand Trends Hurt Results.
Air-Traffic Control Overhaul Needs Billions in Upfront Investment, Transportation Secretary Says.
Paul LaMonica, Barron's, chats about Deckers Outdoor.
A change to real estate commissions was supposed to transform the housing market. That hasn’t happened.
Boy Accidentally Orders 70,000 Lollipops on Amazon. Panic Ensues.
Expedia Shares Fall After Weak Demand Trends Hurt Results.
Air-Traffic Control Overhaul Needs Billions in Upfront Investment, Transportation Secretary Says.
Paul LaMonica, Barron's, chats about Deckers Outdoor.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
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(00:20):
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(00:42):
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(01:05):
Zada and Mike Armstrong.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
Our two of the financial exchange here Chuck, Mike and
Tucker with you. Not too much going on in markets
thus far today. The Daz's off fifty five points nothing Burger,
The S and P is up for nothing, Burger, Nasdak
up twenty eight nothing, Burger, Rust two thousand down point
zero one percent, nothing Burger. It's just no one really
(01:31):
wants to do anything heading into the weekend because no
one knows what's going to happen in Switzerland, which is
negotiations with China.
Speaker 3 (01:38):
In case anybody was sleeping.
Speaker 2 (01:39):
Under a rock, or some cheese being made with some
pocket knives, you know, anything and everything can happen there.
But look, I think the expectations are that there's going
to be some kind of step down in tariffs. Whether
it is to forty fifty, sixty, seventy eighty percent, no
one knows, but it's not And I don't think anyone
thinks it's going back to ten or twenty no, and
(02:00):
I don't think anyone thinks it's staying at one hundred
and forty five, which is why the interesting thing to
me is, hey, what if it does either of those?
Speaker 3 (02:06):
You know, like that.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
That's where the meat is in markets. It's not in
you know, the stuff that's priced, and it's in the
stuff that isn't. And I'm not saying it will or
won't happen, it's just who knows. Like that, That's where
I get kind of curious. Tenure US Treasury down one
whole basis point to four point three six percent. Get
pretty quiet there. Oil West text Intermediate is up sixty
(02:30):
eight cents a barrow, given that the Triple A national
avatur gas prices is still between three ten and three twenty.
I'm not going to tell you the exact price, uh,
because it just hasn't been moving in the last two weeks.
And gold bouncing back today after a week day yesterday,
up thirty five forty ounce to.
Speaker 3 (02:45):
Thirty three forty one and forty cents. Mike, there's a.
Speaker 2 (02:50):
Piece here for the Boston Globe. It's titled to change
to real estate commissions. Was supposed to transform the housing market.
It hasn't happened. And gosh, I wish that I like
indicated the date that we talked about this last year,
because this is exactly what I said was going to
happen on this because Look, here's what happened. There's this
big settlement with the National Association of Realtors where they
(03:12):
basically couldn't.
Speaker 3 (03:13):
Rope people into the old commission structure.
Speaker 2 (03:15):
They couldn't force you to cut the seller in on
a deal, and you know, everyone gets two and a
half or three percent and goes home happy.
Speaker 4 (03:22):
Nor could they explicitly advertise it anymore correct.
Speaker 2 (03:26):
So you know, people are like, oh, this is gonna
open it up to like hourly fees, and you're gonna
get a better deal and this, and and I kind
of took the point. I'm like, guys, you don't buy
homes like you buy tacos. You typically bu stocks for
that matter, right, you typically buy one, maybe two homes
in a lifetime if you're lucky. And so you're not
(03:48):
going to know like what the better deal is in
terms of how you're gonna do it. You're just gonna
say five percent is the norm. Great, We're gonna do
five percent, you know, for the cellar and whatever. And
that's basically what we're seeing here is that, hey, the
five to six percent commission that's been standard for I
don't know as long as I've been alive, and as
long as I can remember. It's pretty much still how
(04:10):
most people are doing it, because no one wants to
think about how much am I paying my agent and
am I getting a good deal or bad deal. If
you don't want to pay an agent, great you can do,
you know, for sale by owner. There's nothing to stop
you from doing that. But most people want someone to
help them with the process, and they don't seem to
think that this is an unfair price for doing so
(04:31):
if they're doing it.
Speaker 4 (04:31):
I did like the creative way in which agents were
signaling to each other that what the commission would be.
I don't know if you saw some of these, but
they would, you know, in some of the photographs they
would include the three amigos on the television, for example,
or they would have like three pumpkins on the table
to indicate a three percent commission, which I, you know,
I just do generally like as a as a creative
(04:54):
way to get around things on collusion.
Speaker 3 (04:57):
The other point that I would make, though, is fifty
years ago.
Speaker 4 (05:00):
They're making this comparison to fifty years ago when the
New York Stock Exchange and did fixed rate commissions and
eventually led to the likes of robin Hood, Fidelity being
able to drive down the cost of stock trading in
the United States for example.
Speaker 2 (05:14):
Right, because obviously Fidelity and Robinhood and all those companies
they don't make any money now since trading's correct.
Speaker 3 (05:20):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (05:21):
Yeah, they haven't figured out how to do that, and
they've just been unprofitable for the last fifty years. No,
obviously not. But the other point that I would make
about this is it took fifty years, right, not one
of deregulation to get any sort of structural change to
how these companies did business with their customers and how
much they charged for it, And so expecting and real
(05:44):
estate somewhere else, expecting real estate commissions to completely change
and be upended. I just don't find to be a
likely scenario. And if they do, then to Chuck's point,
either the service will dramatically degrade, which unlikely given that
it's home buying.
Speaker 3 (06:01):
Or the money will go somewhere else.
Speaker 2 (06:03):
The other thing is and and look are show is
based out of the New England area, which is high
cost of living generally, yep. And I feel like people
think that real estate agents like make a boatload of money,
when in fact, in most of the country.
Speaker 3 (06:17):
Aside from again.
Speaker 2 (06:19):
You'll get like York, like basically New England most of
the country. Real estate agents don't make very much money.
And here's the math on it. Let's say that you
are a real estate agent and you're selling a property
with a i'll be generous six percent commission. Median home
price in the country right now it's about four hundred
thousand dollars, so it's due that to keep the math easy,
(06:41):
and so you sell a property with a six percent commission,
that is twenty four thousand dollars.
Speaker 3 (06:47):
That gets split.
Speaker 2 (06:48):
Then if you have a buyers and sellers agent, you
split that so divided by two. Now each side's taking
home twelve thousand dollars. But either, if you're working for yourself,
you've got some costs that you have to pay, usually
either you know, taking pictures of the home, you know,
the staging, whatever it is that you might be doing,
blah blah blah, there's stuff on that side. Or if
you work under a brokerage, usually paying like thirty to
(07:11):
fifty percent to that firm. So out of that twenty
four thousand dollars total commission, you might end up. Let's
say that you get seventy percent, you get to keep
seventy percent of your half. You're getting eighty four hundred dollars,
which means even if in a busy spring housing season
you sell six properties, you made fifty thousand dollars that year.
(07:31):
Does anyone look at fifty thousand dollars and say, wow,
like you're overpaid?
Speaker 3 (07:37):
No, not really any of the country.
Speaker 2 (07:38):
Now, if you want to look at the New England
region and say, oh, I may you know, I deal
only with the islands, Like that's okay, fine, So you're
selling you know, five places for two million bucks and great,
Like you do the math and it's like, okay, so
you made you know, two hundred thousand dollars for the year.
Speaker 3 (07:57):
Okay, Like, yeah, you're making some real money.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
But you're also in a high call area because if
you're selling property on the islands, you're probably not taking
Cape Air out each and.
Speaker 3 (08:04):
Every day in order to service it. Likely not.
Speaker 2 (08:07):
So I'm of the opinion and I know this is
probably kind of like I know, some people look at
real estate agents and they're kind of like and like
like what.
Speaker 3 (08:16):
Did they really do?
Speaker 2 (08:17):
And I actually think real estate agents provide a hugely
valuable service, in particular for first time buyers who have
no idea what they're getting themselves into.
Speaker 4 (08:27):
Yeah, look, I think a good real estate agent earns
every penny.
Speaker 1 (08:32):
Yes.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
I also like the changes that were made.
Speaker 4 (08:35):
I like the fact that it is now if you
want it explicit in terms of what you are compensating
your agent or the buyer, And honestly, previously it just
was not, and there were there was a lot of
just wishy washiness in the industry. As speaking from somebody
who tried to negotiate this stuff, it was really unclear
(08:55):
how it all was supposed to work. And I think
this has been a first step in transparency, which does
not always lead to lower cost.
Speaker 3 (09:05):
Just take a quick break here.
Speaker 2 (09:06):
When we return, we're going to do a little bit
of trivia and then we're going to talk about seventy
thousand lollipops.
Speaker 1 (09:13):
Right after this, Tara Fleevery's in high gear. We've got
the latest on what might be next and how long
it might last.
Speaker 3 (09:21):
Only here on.
Speaker 1 (09:22):
The Financial Exchange Radio Network. If you missed any of
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Find daily show segments and full shows. Just go to
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Speaker 5 (09:51):
This segment of The Financial Exchange is brought to you
in part by the US Virgin Islands Department of Tourism.
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(10:16):
and more information, go to visit USBI dot com. That's
visit USVII dot com. Time for trivia here on the
Financial Exchange, and on this day. Back in nineteen forty nine,
Prince Rayner the third became the Monarch of Monaco. Six
years later, Rayner married an American actress in what was
described as the wedding of the century. Of course, uh
(10:40):
the marriage is broadcast worldwide and viewed by more than
thirty million people. Trivia question today, which American actress did
Prince Rayner Mary once again? Which American actress. Did Prince
Rayner Mary be the sixth person today to text us
at six one seven three six two thirteen eighty five
with the correct answer, and you win a brand new
(11:01):
Financial Exchange Showed T shirt. Once again, the sixth correct
response to text us to the number six one seven
three six two thirteen eighty five will win that T shirt.
See complete contest rules at Financial exchine Show dot com.
Speaker 2 (11:16):
Mike, what would you do if seventy thousand lollipops showed
up on your doorstep? Specifically thirty one hundred and thirty
dollars boxes almost four thousand dollars in lollipops showing up
on your doorstep?
Speaker 4 (11:35):
I would be having some stern words with my children.
Noe's that's probably the direction I would go. Although I
was explaining during the break that I am known in
the Needham hockey community as the Lollipop Man because I
do give out to the lollipops after every skate. I
just don't know that I will be doing that for
long enough to give out seventy thousand dumb dumbs.
Speaker 3 (11:57):
So do you represent the lollipop Guild?
Speaker 1 (11:59):
I do? You do?
Speaker 3 (12:00):
Always have? So here's the tight for it. Here's the deal.
Speaker 2 (12:03):
There is this this kid by the name of Liam,
who's eight years old, and apparently, you know, like most kids,
like hey, mom or dad is ordering something on their
phone or iPad or whatever it is from Amazon, and
so they you know, kind of have watched Oh can
I help you order it?
Speaker 6 (12:21):
Sure?
Speaker 3 (12:21):
Why not press this button? Press that button? Blah blah blah.
Speaker 2 (12:24):
And apparently they had put a box of lollipops in
their like shopping cart, but then put it in like
a list to buy later, like not buying it right away.
And apparently this kid wanted to have a carnival for
his friends, and so instead of you know, putting something
into the hey, I want to you know, wait for this,
(12:45):
maybe order it later, he accidentally ordered thirty twenty five
pound boxes of lollipops from Amazon. So that they show
up and this is just great. The kid goes, mom My,
suck are here. He sees like all these boxes being
unloaded outside. The mom, of course, is like this is
(13:06):
too many lollipops. They're like, We're not supposed to have
that many lollipops.
Speaker 5 (13:10):
One of these boxes is too many lollipops.
Speaker 3 (13:12):
Correct, Yes, he's a huge.
Speaker 2 (13:14):
Yes, each each one is what is it? Like, each
one is like two hundred and fifty lollipops or something
like that.
Speaker 1 (13:20):
It's a twenty five pound box.
Speaker 3 (13:22):
Yeah, so's it's a big box of lollipops.
Speaker 4 (13:24):
I'm trying to I'm looking in my Amazon car right
now to figure out what I recently bought in terms
of lolleypops because it was a.
Speaker 3 (13:32):
Pretty large order. But let's go anyways.
Speaker 2 (13:34):
The mom then goes to a bank account, is like, oh,
I've overdrafted a little bit because you know it's forty
two hundred dollars.
Speaker 3 (13:40):
Let this be another great lesson.
Speaker 2 (13:42):
Don't use a debit card for that because you can
be on the hook for it otherwise, whereas you know,
credit card, if someone orders something not too that you
didn't intend to order, usually through fraud. I'm guessing if
it's your kid, there's probably stipulations on that and everything.
But anyways, so seventy thousand lollipops are being ship by Amazon.
Amazon's like, hey, we can't take these back because they're
(14:02):
food and we can't take returns on food. Eventually, they
managed to get to an agreement where Amazon was not
going to take them back. But they would refund the order.
They said, we quote work directly with her to turn
a sticky situation into something sweet great that you.
Speaker 3 (14:19):
Know, that's the dumbest that's what they said. Who's ai
did he use to come up with that? Oh? God,
that's bad.
Speaker 4 (14:27):
So there's a lot A ten pound box of lollipops,
by the way, it was fifty two dollars.
Speaker 3 (14:32):
It's a lot of lollipops.
Speaker 2 (14:34):
And the family now is basically saying, look, we're donating
a lot of these to charity. We're giving some other families,
like a few people have offered to buy a box
here and there.
Speaker 3 (14:42):
Nobody wants them.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
But again, a twenty five pound box of lollipops, it's
a lot of suckers.
Speaker 4 (14:50):
I yeah, Speaking as a parent of two eight year
olds as well as a six year old, these are
the Every once in a while, they'll have my wife's
phone and I'm constantly like, what.
Speaker 3 (15:01):
Are you doing?
Speaker 4 (15:02):
Don't let them have your phone because this is the
type of thing that happens.
Speaker 3 (15:08):
Now greted.
Speaker 4 (15:09):
Was this done on an Alexa device or was this
done on the phone. It sounds like it was done
on a phone. Okay, yeah, I don't know. I just
that's the main lesson to me here. And this is
not the first story that we have covered. Right, We
had the case of a kid spending one thousand dollars
on roadblocks currency a three year old.
Speaker 3 (15:32):
Which is a video game. Yeah, sorry, video game.
Speaker 4 (15:35):
I spent three hundred dollars on movies when it's granddaughter
spent through thousand dollars on Google Play. Like this continues
to happen, and it's consistently because frankly, parents are letting
their kids play with their phones.
Speaker 5 (15:47):
Yes, I put a pin on like anything if they're
close to anything gaming wise, like if they have their
little Amazon Fire tablet or you know, a Nintendo switch
or a Xbox, like, there's a pin, be like, okay,
what's the pin if you want to buy this?
Speaker 3 (16:04):
They don't know the pin? I do, yeah, you know it.
Speaker 6 (16:07):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (16:07):
But now, I mean, I'm thinking this through and my
kids don't again, don't use my phone. But if they
had it and it was open and they opened the
Amazon application, this could happen to.
Speaker 3 (16:20):
Me, raight.
Speaker 2 (16:20):
There's no pin that's needed there, No, you might be
able to enable it, but Amazon, the default, I think
is just that they want as a little friction as possible, right,
And I want as little as friction as possible given
how much stuff I'm ordering, which is why I.
Speaker 3 (16:31):
Just don't let them have my phone.
Speaker 2 (16:33):
Yeah, that's that's the ultimate answer. So this was this
was kind of a wild one.
Speaker 3 (16:38):
Yeah, pretty entertaining. Should we talk about Expedia? We should? Yeah.
Speaker 4 (16:42):
So Expedia is following the same trend line that we
have been hearing from hotels as well as many airlines
saying that bookings are just down. And it has been
consistent on the travel side, and I think speaks to
on an Expedia case, I think it only speaks to
one thing, which is international travel is down. More specifically,
(17:06):
foreign travelers into the United States are way down. Go
talk to this, Go talk to anybody that owns a
rental property and Maine, for example, they are seeing a
decline in travel. What we don't seem to be seeing
is a big down trend in leisure travel by Americans.
And it's tough to kind of draw this out exactly.
(17:30):
But we talked about yesterday on the show how Disney's
earnings were fantastic, and that included bookings at the theme parks,
which they expected to be up and likewise Expedia. You know,
I look at Expedia and I don't really think of
them as a company that benefits or.
Speaker 3 (17:47):
Falls because of business travel.
Speaker 4 (17:50):
I don't know anybody that books their business travel via Expedia,
I guess would be my point. But they probably are
seeing a fallen booking from international travelers into the United
States that we've been experience.
Speaker 2 (18:00):
I think they do act as like the back end
for some travel portals for their large websites, where they
might just supply like the data but like you wouldn't
go to Expedia necessarily, but and the other Yeah, I
guess the other stuff would not be business run.
Speaker 3 (18:16):
They also keep in mind Expedia.
Speaker 4 (18:18):
I know we all think of, you know, the planing
plain in vacation, but they owned Verbo for those that
aren't familiar, so that the main Airbnb competitor being Verbo.
So you're renting one of those vacation properties again international
travel declining, Expedia is going to feel it a little bit.
Speaker 3 (18:37):
We can't call it Verbo. If we're gonna call it Verbo,
then it has to be Erbunba. On the other side,
isn't that what Expedia has been calling it? As verbal?
It is, but it started as vrbo. It did. Yeah,
I can't get behind it.
Speaker 2 (18:52):
It's another one of those things where like this, they
didn't even change the name, they just changed the pronunciation.
Speaker 3 (18:57):
Yeah, like it.
Speaker 2 (18:57):
It's like when Brad Marsham went from Marshaan too Marshall
on back to marshand in a few years, which I
thought was great.
Speaker 3 (19:03):
Like just to mess with people, just to mess with you.
I'm gonna keep calling it verbo.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
I'm gonna change my name then without changing it. It's
pronounced zadah.
Speaker 3 (19:10):
Sounds good. Yeah, we're moving the accent to the other.
Speaker 4 (19:13):
So when I call you on my voice command in
my car, I have to pronounce it zoda to get
it to actually get to call you, do you.
Speaker 3 (19:19):
Yeah, Oh that's unfortunate. It is. Well, don't call me anymore.
Let's take a quick break. When we come back. We
got the turn answer after this.
Speaker 1 (19:41):
Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio every day,
it's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
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Speaker 5 (20:05):
Trivia question today was which American actress did Prince Rayner Mary,
That would be Grace Kelly. Donna from Johnson Rhode Island
is our winner today, taking on a brand new Financial
Exchange Show T shirt.
Speaker 3 (20:17):
Congrats to Donna.
Speaker 5 (20:19):
And we play trivia every day here in the Financial Exchange.
See complete contest rules at Financial Exchange Show dot com.
Speaker 2 (20:28):
Peace in the Wall Street Journal, Air traffic control overhaul
needs billions and upfront investment. Transportation Secretary says, so, look,
here's the deal. Apparently this morning Newark lost radar for
a little bit again, second time in a week week
and a half.
Speaker 3 (20:45):
When was the last one, like the middle last week
or something. I think it was within a week.
Speaker 2 (20:49):
So, look, this is getting pretty dodgy at this point,
and we're kind of lucky that it hasn't caused further issues.
Now kind of embarrassing, I throw it right, I'm kind
of embarrassing. It's dangerous. It is straight up dangerous at
this point, to the point where my buddies who are
(21:12):
pilots are like, yeah, this isn't good, and normally they're
pretty you know, level headed people.
Speaker 4 (21:17):
Yeah, it falls into the same category of America's underinvested
infrastructure system, and this falls right into the same category
to me, as you know, the dangers that we see
in bridges and highways and train systems and everything that
has just been for decades now ignored because really, since
(21:39):
the nineteen eighties, the entire drive has been cut taxes,
and that has been a winning political strategy in spite
of rising deficits and everything else. And one of the
main offshoots and and what's the word I'm looking for,
one of the main problems with all that has been
(21:59):
a lack of invest meant in the country's infrastructure. And
it's not sexy to do. Nobody loves doing it. No
one wants to pay for it.
Speaker 2 (22:06):
Everyone wants to just to like get by and like okay,
like muddle through. But here's the deal, because everyone wants
to like do the exciting stuff like oh, I work
for Facebook making chatbots that will take your visa card
and like, oh, like that's supposed to drive value or something.
The only reason that any of that stuff can happen
(22:26):
is because you actually have the real physical world infrastructure
to allow for humans to do stuff that they need
to do. And if you don't invest in the boring,
the mundane, the stuff that is basically like the offensive
lineman or long snapper of the economy, you're not gonna have,
You're not gonna be able to do the other stuff
(22:48):
like you you have to spend the money on this
stuff in order to be able to do all the
cool stuff that you want.
Speaker 4 (22:55):
Yeah, it's a shame, but it is. It's embarrassing because, yeah,
countries like China are kind of light years ahead of
us when it comes to their infrastructure at this stage,
which I find personally embarrassing. And you know, not to
mention actually advanced infrastructure countries like Japan, like Korea, where
it's almost unrecognizable compared to the United States.
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Speaker 3 (24:29):
What's the right way to pay for that?
Speaker 4 (24:31):
By the way, pay for one the specific investment that
we're going to need to make in air traffic control?
Speaker 3 (24:36):
What do you mean pay for it?
Speaker 4 (24:37):
Yeah? I mean, like you know, obviously it's gonna be
a massive thing. You have to raise taxes somewhere. Where
do you do it? Because I'm kind of falling on
the use tax, even though we already tax airline travel
quite a bit. I don't want to pay for this
if I never fly.
Speaker 2 (24:52):
So let's get into this actually just because I think
it's an interesting conversation because A so a couple things.
First of all, a use tax. Basically, what that means
is that you're gonna charge by the plane, correct.
Speaker 3 (25:07):
Like it might plane whatever you want.
Speaker 2 (25:09):
Well, again, like, it's not just passenger planes the passing
these areas, it's cargo. So you end up charging by
the plane or buy the pound or whatever it ends
up being. Ultimately, that just means that those costs are
gonna get passed through somewhere else in the system. Correct,
We're all gonna end up paying for it anyways. Yeah,
Like I'm a big The more I've looked at how
governments like try to justify doing this and that and everything,
(25:33):
I've kind of gotten to the point where I'm like,
if you want to like raise the money, just raise
the money. If you want to spend the money, just
spend the money. Don't come up with all these justifications
for well, if we get the formula just right, it'll
target the right.
Speaker 3 (25:47):
It never actually works, like you end up.
Speaker 2 (25:49):
This is how you build the bureaucracy is through trying
to be like, well, now we need to measure if
someone's getting this just right. If you want to spend
the money, spend the money, like, don't worry about like
is it gonna affect every group equally or this one
just a little bit.
Speaker 3 (26:05):
If you want to do it, go do it.
Speaker 2 (26:07):
So I don't like being like, oh, like we're gonna
do a use tax, because that then you got to
be like, Okay, now we have to hire a bunch
of people into the government in order to monitor the
use tax and make sure it's being collected properly and
no one's skirting it. Just raise the money if you
want to do it, you know, like simple is better
it is.
Speaker 4 (26:27):
However, this is the way we come back, We come
back full circle to the way that this has been
paid for for decades now has been just well, I'll
just spend the money and we'll raise the taxes later.
Speaker 2 (26:39):
No, it's not like we have like a gas tax
that's supposed to be allocated to roads. Is that how
it actually works in reality? No, it's not beyond this
the idea that hey, we need to know like if
the money is like being recouped in this, does anyone
look at the US military and be like, why aren't
they making money.
Speaker 3 (26:57):
No, No, because their job is not to make money.
It's to keep us safe.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
Air traffic control is not supposed to make money. It's
supposed to keep us safe. Like a there's certain things
where you can be like okay, like this is a
revenue raising enterprise. Air traffic control is not one of them. Nope,
Like I don't want it to make money. I wanted
to keep plane safe. On a related note or kind
of related note, one of the most embarrassing recalls that
(27:24):
I have seen for an automaker, not because it's inherently dangerous,
but just because of how how many people had to
somehow overlook this in order for it to happen. So
Volkswagen unveiled a couple of years ago their ID Buzz.
It's the VW bus that's electric now, and they rolled
it out about six or seven months ago, and they're
(27:45):
now recalling all of the ones that have been sold,
which is only about fifty six hundred, so fortunately for them,
it's not a huge recall. The reason that they're recalling
it is because, according to US regulations, the third seat
is so wide that it needs a third seat belt
and not just two of them, and so the fix
(28:08):
The fix is not hey, like, we'll install a third
seat belt or something like that. The fix is we're
gonna put a big piece of hard plastic in the
middle of that row in order to shrink the seat
and reduce seating capacity.
Speaker 3 (28:23):
So I have a few comments about this one, Volkswagen.
What is going on? How is you build an entire
car for the US market and then fail to understand
the regulations that apply to the US market.
Speaker 2 (28:34):
How is there not one guy whose specific job is
I need to understand every measurement in this car and
whether it fits within US regulation.
Speaker 3 (28:42):
By the way, this wasn't the only one.
Speaker 4 (28:44):
They also installed an emergency breaking notification that was amber
instead of red, which is against US regulation. Needs to
be recalled for that. That having been said, what are
we doing with these stupid car regulations? Well, there's play
ty of blame to go around here, and I'm sorry,
but a US regulation that says if the seat is
(29:05):
too wide, then we have to make it three seats
instead of two is kind of dumb. Let the car
maker decide what they want to put back there. So
long as there's a seat belts and you disclose how
many people can sit in the car. I really don't
see an issue with a seat being too wide. We're
kind of fat here in America. We need wide seats. Likewise,
if an emergency breaking alert is red an orange instead
(29:26):
of red.
Speaker 3 (29:28):
I'll figure it out right now.
Speaker 4 (29:30):
I don't think that's a necessary regulation for us to
have in the three thousand pages that who regulates all
of this probably nitsa that Iza has when you're manufacturing
a car. I think that's kind of silly and stupid.
We should do away with it. But Volkswagen, those are
the rules of the road. You should have figured it
out before you built these things, regardless of whether or
not they're you know, bad regulations, which I think there's
(29:51):
a pretty convincing case that, as you said, like as
long as you have you know, big letters, two people
in the back seat, okay, like who cares?
Speaker 3 (30:02):
Who cares?
Speaker 2 (30:03):
But having said that, the law says, hey, you get
you know, x inches of you know seat with per occupant.
There has to be someone at Volkswagen who knows that.
And if there's not, what are we doing here?
Speaker 3 (30:19):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (30:19):
Agreed, plenty of blame to go around, but uh, pretty
dumb for a rollout of such an important vehicle. Right,
this wasn't a new Jetta. No, this is sixty They're
not cheap.
Speaker 3 (30:34):
And the range is bad. Oh, the range is bad.
The range like miles or something like that. I don't
know who's gonna buy it.
Speaker 4 (30:40):
Yeah, it's and that's why it's not weighted down with
eight passengers.
Speaker 2 (30:44):
When they unveiled it, I was like, oh, like, this
looks fantastic, and then I saw the specs was like, eh,
I don't think that's gonna work. But uh, they've sold
fifty six hundred of them, which is not great. But
I guess the question is like, those are all the
people who are really interested, Like, what do your sales
look like? Do you get past them?
Speaker 3 (31:01):
Good question? I don't know.
Speaker 2 (31:02):
Let's take a quick break when we come back. Paul
Monica from Barons joins us after.
Speaker 1 (31:06):
This taras fears continue to grip markets, get the latest
straight from Wall Street right here on the Financial Exchange
Radio Network. The Financial Exchange Show podcast drops every day
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leave us a five star review. You're listening to the
Financial Exchange Radio Network. Ladies and gentlemen, the weekend.
Speaker 2 (31:41):
Alright, as promised, We are now joined by Paul Lamonica
from Barons.
Speaker 3 (31:47):
Paul, how are you today.
Speaker 6 (31:49):
I'm good. Thanks you guys do it.
Speaker 3 (31:51):
We're doing well.
Speaker 2 (31:51):
Let's talk a little bit about Decker's Outdoor for people
who aren't familiar with the company.
Speaker 3 (31:56):
Who are they and what do they sell to other
human beings?
Speaker 7 (32:00):
Yes, they sell some popular footwear to human beings, although
maybe not as popular as it used to be, which
is a concern. So this is a company that owns
the ug brand of Ugly shoes, but has really kind
of gained a lot of ground in recent years because
(32:20):
they also own Hookah, which is, you know, a sneaker
brand that sort of kind of came out of nowhere.
It is now, you know, you know, seemingly on the
feet of a lot of people in the same way
that Nike and Adidas are.
Speaker 6 (32:35):
But there are worries about.
Speaker 7 (32:37):
Sales momentum maybe slowing, and that has hit this once
hot stock. It's down more than forty percent this year.
Speaker 2 (32:45):
Is this a case of taste changing? Is it related
to tariffs and cost? Is it something else? What's going
on there?
Speaker 7 (32:52):
Yeah, tariffs are obviously one of the concerns.
Speaker 6 (32:58):
I think that you know, fashion is very fickle. So
there is you know, an.
Speaker 7 (33:04):
Element of you know, maybe you know, the Sneakers not
being as popular as they once were. You know, Nike
is trying to make a comeback obviously, Adidas is always
you know, a tough competitor.
Speaker 6 (33:18):
New Balance very popular as well.
Speaker 7 (33:20):
And then there's Sketchers, which you know they've struggled a
little bit also. But what's happening with Skechers might give
investors in Deckers a little bit of hope because Sketchers
announced earlier this week that it's going private, selling to
three G Capital for a nice premium. I don't think
that necessarily means that Deckers is you know, looking to
(33:41):
go private or sell out either. But if the stock
continues to slide, you do have to wonder if there
is a company out there that might look to scoop
it up at a bit of a premium.
Speaker 2 (33:53):
You mentioned they have, you know, a couple of brands
under their umbrella. Is there also something where maybe they
could be in the market for acquiring a just brands
or is that not in the cards for them?
Speaker 7 (34:02):
No, I think it's possible. I mean, given the stock weakness,
you know, they would probably look to do any deals
if they were thinking about it, you know, more likely
with you know cash, you know, as opposed to using
their shares which are no longer as attractive as as
acquisition currency. But yeah, I think it is possible that
(34:27):
you could see Decker's look to make some acquisitions. I'm
not really sure what other companies are out there that
would be a good fit per se.
Speaker 6 (34:37):
But you know, this is clearly an environment right now
where we're.
Speaker 7 (34:41):
Slowly starting to see some M and A picking up,
you know, particularly in the consumer space. The you know,
there have been a couple of you know, beverage deals
this year, you know, Pepsi buying you know, Poppy for example.
So it wouldn't shock me if they're thinking about deals,
But nothing jumps to mind as an obvious takeover target.
Speaker 2 (35:02):
I want to go back to the Sketchers deal that
you mentioned. How does anyone go out and I know
that was a pe deal, but how does anyone go
out and know how to value these companies given where
their supply chains are and with that tariff uncertainty right now?
Speaker 6 (35:17):
Yeah, I mean it's a great question.
Speaker 7 (35:18):
And when you look at Deckers, for example, their valuation
has taken a gigantic hit.
Speaker 6 (35:26):
The knock on this company before its big slide was
that it was very pricey.
Speaker 7 (35:30):
It was trading around thirty eight times earnings forecasts in
the early part of the year.
Speaker 6 (35:38):
That was a premium even the.
Speaker 7 (35:39):
Nike, which is you know, obviously dow component, the pre
eminent global brand. Now, because of this huge haircut that
Deckers has taken, the stock is at a reasonable price
of about twenty times earnings, which is below its five
year average obviously now at discount to Nike, and it's
even in a discount to the market the sp five
(36:01):
hundred as well. So the question for investors, obviously is
has this stock taken a big enough hit that it
is once again reasonably valued or is there more downside ahead?
Speaker 6 (36:15):
You know, analysts are starting to grow a little bit
more bullish.
Speaker 7 (36:20):
You know, you're seeing, you know, a bunch of analysts
that have price targets that are significantly higher than where
the stock is currently trading.
Speaker 2 (36:29):
Very good, Paul, appreciate you joining us today and hope
you have a great weekend and we'll talk to you.
Speaker 6 (36:35):
Yep, same you guys, appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (36:37):
That is paul A Monica from Baron's talking about deckers outdoor.
Speaker 3 (36:43):
Who you guys buy from for shoes these days. I'm
a new balanced guy now officially, Yep, I'm wearing right now.
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (36:52):
I just go to the store, I run in whatever
they tell me to and then so we're talking specifically
running shoes. Yeah, I'm a Brooks guy myself, got it.
I converted over about five six years ago. Had a
real bad experience with.
Speaker 2 (37:05):
Some Nikes in twenty sixteen, twenty seventeen. That might have
just been like me getting old, but I bought a
pair of like you remember, like the the phase where
they were trying to like slim down the shoes and everything,
and it was like a very like oh, like your
feet will like feel the road more. It was like
neutral shoes, and I think my feet felt the road
too much.
Speaker 3 (37:25):
Yeah, and I'm all about the cushion now. I love
love the cushion.
Speaker 4 (37:29):
You know. It's like yeah, so quick quick mention to
the WU socks for those who are local and considering.
I just saw the funniest promotion that you can possibly
come up for for a baseball game. May twenty first
is per in the Park where you can actually bring
your cat to a ballgame. Chuck and I were talking
(37:52):
during the break. I can't really imagine an activity that
a cat would like to attend less than a live
baseball game with lights, colors and always, but they're doing
it and it's creative. WU so's pretty good take, as
was the pass socks. I loved going to that stadium too,
But you do have fun.
Speaker 2 (38:10):
Your cat does have to be on a leash or
in the bag, yeah, during the game.
Speaker 3 (38:15):
So that's a little disappointing to me personally. You're vile,
jem very.
Speaker 2 (38:20):
Hope everyone has a great weekend. We'll see back here
on Monday. Busy week including a bunch of inflation data
on Monday. Well if the inflation data is not Monday,
but we'll see you Monday.
The Financial Exchange is produced by Money Matters Radio and
is hosted by employees of the Armstrong Advisory Group, a
registered investment advisor. All opinions expressed are solely those of
the hosts. Do not reflect the opinions of Armstrong Advisory
or anyone else. Investments can lose money. This program does
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your own financial, tax, and estate planning advisors before making
(00:20):
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(00:42):
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heroes by visiting dav five K dot Boston and making
a donation today. This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck
(01:05):
Zada and Mike Armstrong.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
Our two of the financial exchange here Chuck, Mike and
Tucker with you. Not too much going on in markets
thus far today. The Daz's off fifty five points nothing Burger,
The S and P is up for nothing, Burger, Nasdak
up twenty eight nothing, Burger, Rust two thousand down point
zero one percent, nothing Burger. It's just no one really
(01:31):
wants to do anything heading into the weekend because no
one knows what's going to happen in Switzerland, which is
negotiations with China.
Speaker 3 (01:38):
In case anybody was sleeping.
Speaker 2 (01:39):
Under a rock, or some cheese being made with some
pocket knives, you know, anything and everything can happen there.
But look, I think the expectations are that there's going
to be some kind of step down in tariffs. Whether
it is to forty fifty, sixty, seventy eighty percent, no
one knows, but it's not And I don't think anyone
thinks it's going back to ten or twenty no, and
(02:00):
I don't think anyone thinks it's staying at one hundred
and forty five, which is why the interesting thing to
me is, hey, what if it does either of those?
Speaker 3 (02:06):
You know, like that.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
That's where the meat is in markets. It's not in
you know, the stuff that's priced, and it's in the
stuff that isn't. And I'm not saying it will or
won't happen, it's just who knows. Like that, That's where
I get kind of curious. Tenure US Treasury down one
whole basis point to four point three six percent. Get
pretty quiet there. Oil West text Intermediate is up sixty
(02:30):
eight cents a barrow, given that the Triple A national
avatur gas prices is still between three ten and three twenty.
I'm not going to tell you the exact price, uh,
because it just hasn't been moving in the last two weeks.
And gold bouncing back today after a week day yesterday,
up thirty five forty ounce to.
Speaker 3 (02:45):
Thirty three forty one and forty cents. Mike, there's a.
Speaker 2 (02:50):
Piece here for the Boston Globe. It's titled to change
to real estate commissions. Was supposed to transform the housing market.
It hasn't happened. And gosh, I wish that I like
indicated the date that we talked about this last year,
because this is exactly what I said was going to
happen on this because Look, here's what happened. There's this
big settlement with the National Association of Realtors where they
(03:12):
basically couldn't.
Speaker 3 (03:13):
Rope people into the old commission structure.
Speaker 2 (03:15):
They couldn't force you to cut the seller in on
a deal, and you know, everyone gets two and a
half or three percent and goes home happy.
Speaker 4 (03:22):
Nor could they explicitly advertise it anymore correct.
Speaker 2 (03:26):
So you know, people are like, oh, this is gonna
open it up to like hourly fees, and you're gonna
get a better deal and this, and and I kind
of took the point. I'm like, guys, you don't buy
homes like you buy tacos. You typically bu stocks for
that matter, right, you typically buy one, maybe two homes
in a lifetime if you're lucky. And so you're not
(03:48):
going to know like what the better deal is in
terms of how you're gonna do it. You're just gonna
say five percent is the norm. Great, We're gonna do
five percent, you know, for the cellar and whatever. And
that's basically what we're seeing here is that, hey, the
five to six percent commission that's been standard for I
don't know as long as I've been alive, and as
long as I can remember. It's pretty much still how
(04:10):
most people are doing it, because no one wants to
think about how much am I paying my agent and
am I getting a good deal or bad deal. If
you don't want to pay an agent, great you can do,
you know, for sale by owner. There's nothing to stop
you from doing that. But most people want someone to
help them with the process, and they don't seem to
think that this is an unfair price for doing so
(04:31):
if they're doing it.
Speaker 4 (04:31):
I did like the creative way in which agents were
signaling to each other that what the commission would be.
I don't know if you saw some of these, but
they would, you know, in some of the photographs they
would include the three amigos on the television, for example,
or they would have like three pumpkins on the table
to indicate a three percent commission, which I, you know,
I just do generally like as a as a creative
(04:54):
way to get around things on collusion.
Speaker 3 (04:57):
The other point that I would make, though, is fifty
years ago.
Speaker 4 (05:00):
They're making this comparison to fifty years ago when the
New York Stock Exchange and did fixed rate commissions and
eventually led to the likes of robin Hood, Fidelity being
able to drive down the cost of stock trading in
the United States for example.
Speaker 2 (05:14):
Right, because obviously Fidelity and Robinhood and all those companies
they don't make any money now since trading's correct.
Speaker 3 (05:20):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (05:21):
Yeah, they haven't figured out how to do that, and
they've just been unprofitable for the last fifty years. No,
obviously not. But the other point that I would make
about this is it took fifty years, right, not one
of deregulation to get any sort of structural change to
how these companies did business with their customers and how
much they charged for it, And so expecting and real
(05:44):
estate somewhere else, expecting real estate commissions to completely change
and be upended. I just don't find to be a
likely scenario. And if they do, then to Chuck's point,
either the service will dramatically degrade, which unlikely given that
it's home buying.
Speaker 3 (06:01):
Or the money will go somewhere else.
Speaker 2 (06:03):
The other thing is and and look are show is
based out of the New England area, which is high
cost of living generally, yep. And I feel like people
think that real estate agents like make a boatload of money,
when in fact, in most of the country.
Speaker 3 (06:17):
Aside from again.
Speaker 2 (06:19):
You'll get like York, like basically New England most of
the country. Real estate agents don't make very much money.
And here's the math on it. Let's say that you
are a real estate agent and you're selling a property
with a i'll be generous six percent commission. Median home
price in the country right now it's about four hundred
thousand dollars, so it's due that to keep the math easy,
(06:41):
and so you sell a property with a six percent commission,
that is twenty four thousand dollars.
Speaker 3 (06:47):
That gets split.
Speaker 2 (06:48):
Then if you have a buyers and sellers agent, you
split that so divided by two. Now each side's taking
home twelve thousand dollars. But either, if you're working for yourself,
you've got some costs that you have to pay, usually
either you know, taking pictures of the home, you know,
the staging, whatever it is that you might be doing,
blah blah blah, there's stuff on that side. Or if
you work under a brokerage, usually paying like thirty to
(07:11):
fifty percent to that firm. So out of that twenty
four thousand dollars total commission, you might end up. Let's
say that you get seventy percent, you get to keep
seventy percent of your half. You're getting eighty four hundred dollars,
which means even if in a busy spring housing season
you sell six properties, you made fifty thousand dollars that year.
(07:31):
Does anyone look at fifty thousand dollars and say, wow,
like you're overpaid?
Speaker 3 (07:37):
No, not really any of the country.
Speaker 2 (07:38):
Now, if you want to look at the New England
region and say, oh, I may you know, I deal
only with the islands, Like that's okay, fine, So you're
selling you know, five places for two million bucks and great,
Like you do the math and it's like, okay, so
you made you know, two hundred thousand dollars for the year.
Speaker 3 (07:57):
Okay, Like, yeah, you're making some real money.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
But you're also in a high call area because if
you're selling property on the islands, you're probably not taking
Cape Air out each and.
Speaker 3 (08:04):
Every day in order to service it. Likely not.
Speaker 2 (08:07):
So I'm of the opinion and I know this is
probably kind of like I know, some people look at
real estate agents and they're kind of like and like
like what.
Speaker 3 (08:16):
Did they really do?
Speaker 2 (08:17):
And I actually think real estate agents provide a hugely
valuable service, in particular for first time buyers who have
no idea what they're getting themselves into.
Speaker 4 (08:27):
Yeah, look, I think a good real estate agent earns
every penny.
Speaker 1 (08:32):
Yes.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
I also like the changes that were made.
Speaker 4 (08:35):
I like the fact that it is now if you
want it explicit in terms of what you are compensating
your agent or the buyer, And honestly, previously it just
was not, and there were there was a lot of
just wishy washiness in the industry. As speaking from somebody
who tried to negotiate this stuff, it was really unclear
(08:55):
how it all was supposed to work. And I think
this has been a first step in transparency, which does
not always lead to lower cost.
Speaker 3 (09:05):
Just take a quick break here.
Speaker 2 (09:06):
When we return, we're going to do a little bit
of trivia and then we're going to talk about seventy
thousand lollipops.
Speaker 1 (09:13):
Right after this, Tara Fleevery's in high gear. We've got
the latest on what might be next and how long
it might last.
Speaker 3 (09:21):
Only here on.
Speaker 1 (09:22):
The Financial Exchange Radio Network. If you missed any of
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Find daily show segments and full shows. Just go to
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Speaker 5 (09:51):
This segment of The Financial Exchange is brought to you
in part by the US Virgin Islands Department of Tourism.
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(10:16):
and more information, go to visit USBI dot com. That's
visit USVII dot com. Time for trivia here on the
Financial Exchange, and on this day. Back in nineteen forty nine,
Prince Rayner the third became the Monarch of Monaco. Six
years later, Rayner married an American actress in what was
described as the wedding of the century. Of course, uh
(10:40):
the marriage is broadcast worldwide and viewed by more than
thirty million people. Trivia question today, which American actress did
Prince Rayner Mary once again? Which American actress. Did Prince
Rayner Mary be the sixth person today to text us
at six one seven three six two thirteen eighty five
with the correct answer, and you win a brand new
(11:01):
Financial Exchange Showed T shirt. Once again, the sixth correct
response to text us to the number six one seven
three six two thirteen eighty five will win that T shirt.
See complete contest rules at Financial exchine Show dot com.
Speaker 2 (11:16):
Mike, what would you do if seventy thousand lollipops showed
up on your doorstep? Specifically thirty one hundred and thirty
dollars boxes almost four thousand dollars in lollipops showing up
on your doorstep?
Speaker 4 (11:35):
I would be having some stern words with my children.
Noe's that's probably the direction I would go. Although I
was explaining during the break that I am known in
the Needham hockey community as the Lollipop Man because I
do give out to the lollipops after every skate. I
just don't know that I will be doing that for
long enough to give out seventy thousand dumb dumbs.
Speaker 3 (11:57):
So do you represent the lollipop Guild?
Speaker 1 (11:59):
I do? You do?
Speaker 3 (12:00):
Always have? So here's the tight for it. Here's the deal.
Speaker 2 (12:03):
There is this this kid by the name of Liam,
who's eight years old, and apparently, you know, like most kids,
like hey, mom or dad is ordering something on their
phone or iPad or whatever it is from Amazon, and
so they you know, kind of have watched Oh can
I help you order it?
Speaker 6 (12:21):
Sure?
Speaker 3 (12:21):
Why not press this button? Press that button? Blah blah blah.
Speaker 2 (12:24):
And apparently they had put a box of lollipops in
their like shopping cart, but then put it in like
a list to buy later, like not buying it right away.
And apparently this kid wanted to have a carnival for
his friends, and so instead of you know, putting something
into the hey, I want to you know, wait for this,
(12:45):
maybe order it later, he accidentally ordered thirty twenty five
pound boxes of lollipops from Amazon. So that they show
up and this is just great. The kid goes, mom My,
suck are here. He sees like all these boxes being
unloaded outside. The mom, of course, is like this is
(13:06):
too many lollipops. They're like, We're not supposed to have
that many lollipops.
Speaker 5 (13:10):
One of these boxes is too many lollipops.
Speaker 3 (13:12):
Correct, Yes, he's a huge.
Speaker 2 (13:14):
Yes, each each one is what is it? Like, each
one is like two hundred and fifty lollipops or something
like that.
Speaker 1 (13:20):
It's a twenty five pound box.
Speaker 3 (13:22):
Yeah, so's it's a big box of lollipops.
Speaker 4 (13:24):
I'm trying to I'm looking in my Amazon car right
now to figure out what I recently bought in terms
of lolleypops because it was a.
Speaker 3 (13:32):
Pretty large order. But let's go anyways.
Speaker 2 (13:34):
The mom then goes to a bank account, is like, oh,
I've overdrafted a little bit because you know it's forty
two hundred dollars.
Speaker 3 (13:40):
Let this be another great lesson.
Speaker 2 (13:42):
Don't use a debit card for that because you can
be on the hook for it otherwise, whereas you know,
credit card, if someone orders something not too that you
didn't intend to order, usually through fraud. I'm guessing if
it's your kid, there's probably stipulations on that and everything.
But anyways, so seventy thousand lollipops are being ship by Amazon.
Amazon's like, hey, we can't take these back because they're
(14:02):
food and we can't take returns on food. Eventually, they
managed to get to an agreement where Amazon was not
going to take them back. But they would refund the order.
They said, we quote work directly with her to turn
a sticky situation into something sweet great that you.
Speaker 3 (14:19):
Know, that's the dumbest that's what they said. Who's ai
did he use to come up with that? Oh? God,
that's bad.
Speaker 4 (14:27):
So there's a lot A ten pound box of lollipops,
by the way, it was fifty two dollars.
Speaker 3 (14:32):
It's a lot of lollipops.
Speaker 2 (14:34):
And the family now is basically saying, look, we're donating
a lot of these to charity. We're giving some other families,
like a few people have offered to buy a box
here and there.
Speaker 3 (14:42):
Nobody wants them.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
But again, a twenty five pound box of lollipops, it's
a lot of suckers.
Speaker 4 (14:50):
I yeah, Speaking as a parent of two eight year
olds as well as a six year old, these are
the Every once in a while, they'll have my wife's
phone and I'm constantly like, what.
Speaker 3 (15:01):
Are you doing?
Speaker 4 (15:02):
Don't let them have your phone because this is the
type of thing that happens.
Speaker 3 (15:08):
Now greted.
Speaker 4 (15:09):
Was this done on an Alexa device or was this
done on the phone. It sounds like it was done
on a phone. Okay, yeah, I don't know. I just
that's the main lesson to me here. And this is
not the first story that we have covered. Right, We
had the case of a kid spending one thousand dollars
on roadblocks currency a three year old.
Speaker 3 (15:32):
Which is a video game. Yeah, sorry, video game.
Speaker 4 (15:35):
I spent three hundred dollars on movies when it's granddaughter
spent through thousand dollars on Google Play. Like this continues
to happen, and it's consistently because frankly, parents are letting
their kids play with their phones.
Speaker 5 (15:47):
Yes, I put a pin on like anything if they're
close to anything gaming wise, like if they have their
little Amazon Fire tablet or you know, a Nintendo switch
or a Xbox, like, there's a pin, be like, okay,
what's the pin if you want to buy this?
Speaker 3 (16:04):
They don't know the pin? I do, yeah, you know it.
Speaker 6 (16:07):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (16:07):
But now, I mean, I'm thinking this through and my
kids don't again, don't use my phone. But if they
had it and it was open and they opened the
Amazon application, this could happen to.
Speaker 3 (16:20):
Me, raight.
Speaker 2 (16:20):
There's no pin that's needed there, No, you might be
able to enable it, but Amazon, the default, I think
is just that they want as a little friction as possible, right,
And I want as little as friction as possible given
how much stuff I'm ordering, which is why I.
Speaker 3 (16:31):
Just don't let them have my phone.
Speaker 2 (16:33):
Yeah, that's that's the ultimate answer. So this was this
was kind of a wild one.
Speaker 3 (16:38):
Yeah, pretty entertaining. Should we talk about Expedia? We should? Yeah.
Speaker 4 (16:42):
So Expedia is following the same trend line that we
have been hearing from hotels as well as many airlines
saying that bookings are just down. And it has been
consistent on the travel side, and I think speaks to
on an Expedia case, I think it only speaks to
one thing, which is international travel is down. More specifically,
(17:06):
foreign travelers into the United States are way down. Go
talk to this, Go talk to anybody that owns a
rental property and Maine, for example, they are seeing a
decline in travel. What we don't seem to be seeing
is a big down trend in leisure travel by Americans.
And it's tough to kind of draw this out exactly.
(17:30):
But we talked about yesterday on the show how Disney's
earnings were fantastic, and that included bookings at the theme parks,
which they expected to be up and likewise Expedia. You know,
I look at Expedia and I don't really think of
them as a company that benefits or.
Speaker 3 (17:47):
Falls because of business travel.
Speaker 4 (17:50):
I don't know anybody that books their business travel via Expedia,
I guess would be my point. But they probably are
seeing a fallen booking from international travelers into the United
States that we've been experience.
Speaker 2 (18:00):
I think they do act as like the back end
for some travel portals for their large websites, where they
might just supply like the data but like you wouldn't
go to Expedia necessarily, but and the other Yeah, I
guess the other stuff would not be business run.
Speaker 3 (18:16):
They also keep in mind Expedia.
Speaker 4 (18:18):
I know we all think of, you know, the planing
plain in vacation, but they owned Verbo for those that
aren't familiar, so that the main Airbnb competitor being Verbo.
So you're renting one of those vacation properties again international
travel declining, Expedia is going to feel it a little bit.
Speaker 3 (18:37):
We can't call it Verbo. If we're gonna call it Verbo,
then it has to be Erbunba. On the other side,
isn't that what Expedia has been calling it? As verbal?
It is, but it started as vrbo. It did. Yeah,
I can't get behind it.
Speaker 2 (18:52):
It's another one of those things where like this, they
didn't even change the name, they just changed the pronunciation.
Speaker 3 (18:57):
Yeah, like it.
Speaker 2 (18:57):
It's like when Brad Marsham went from Marshaan too Marshall
on back to marshand in a few years, which I
thought was great.
Speaker 3 (19:03):
Like just to mess with people, just to mess with you.
I'm gonna keep calling it verbo.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
I'm gonna change my name then without changing it. It's
pronounced zadah.
Speaker 3 (19:10):
Sounds good. Yeah, we're moving the accent to the other.
Speaker 4 (19:13):
So when I call you on my voice command in
my car, I have to pronounce it zoda to get
it to actually get to call you, do you.
Speaker 3 (19:19):
Yeah, Oh that's unfortunate. It is. Well, don't call me anymore.
Let's take a quick break. When we come back. We
got the turn answer after this.
Speaker 1 (19:41):
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Speaker 5 (20:05):
Trivia question today was which American actress did Prince Rayner Mary,
That would be Grace Kelly. Donna from Johnson Rhode Island
is our winner today, taking on a brand new Financial
Exchange Show T shirt.
Speaker 3 (20:17):
Congrats to Donna.
Speaker 5 (20:19):
And we play trivia every day here in the Financial Exchange.
See complete contest rules at Financial Exchange Show dot com.
Speaker 2 (20:28):
Peace in the Wall Street Journal, Air traffic control overhaul
needs billions and upfront investment. Transportation Secretary says, so, look,
here's the deal. Apparently this morning Newark lost radar for
a little bit again, second time in a week week
and a half.
Speaker 3 (20:45):
When was the last one, like the middle last week
or something. I think it was within a week.
Speaker 2 (20:49):
So, look, this is getting pretty dodgy at this point,
and we're kind of lucky that it hasn't caused further issues.
Now kind of embarrassing, I throw it right, I'm kind
of embarrassing. It's dangerous. It is straight up dangerous at
this point, to the point where my buddies who are
(21:12):
pilots are like, yeah, this isn't good, and normally they're
pretty you know, level headed people.
Speaker 4 (21:17):
Yeah, it falls into the same category of America's underinvested
infrastructure system, and this falls right into the same category
to me, as you know, the dangers that we see
in bridges and highways and train systems and everything that
has just been for decades now ignored because really, since
(21:39):
the nineteen eighties, the entire drive has been cut taxes,
and that has been a winning political strategy in spite
of rising deficits and everything else. And one of the
main offshoots and and what's the word I'm looking for,
one of the main problems with all that has been
(21:59):
a lack of invest meant in the country's infrastructure. And
it's not sexy to do. Nobody loves doing it. No
one wants to pay for it.
Speaker 2 (22:06):
Everyone wants to just to like get by and like okay,
like muddle through. But here's the deal, because everyone wants
to like do the exciting stuff like oh, I work
for Facebook making chatbots that will take your visa card
and like, oh, like that's supposed to drive value or something.
The only reason that any of that stuff can happen
(22:26):
is because you actually have the real physical world infrastructure
to allow for humans to do stuff that they need
to do. And if you don't invest in the boring,
the mundane, the stuff that is basically like the offensive
lineman or long snapper of the economy, you're not gonna have,
You're not gonna be able to do the other stuff
(22:48):
like you you have to spend the money on this
stuff in order to be able to do all the
cool stuff that you want.
Speaker 4 (22:55):
Yeah, it's a shame, but it is. It's embarrassing because, yeah,
countries like China are kind of light years ahead of
us when it comes to their infrastructure at this stage,
which I find personally embarrassing. And you know, not to
mention actually advanced infrastructure countries like Japan, like Korea, where
it's almost unrecognizable compared to the United States.
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Speaker 3 (24:29):
What's the right way to pay for that?
Speaker 4 (24:31):
By the way, pay for one the specific investment that
we're going to need to make in air traffic control?
Speaker 3 (24:36):
What do you mean pay for it?
Speaker 4 (24:37):
Yeah? I mean, like you know, obviously it's gonna be
a massive thing. You have to raise taxes somewhere. Where
do you do it? Because I'm kind of falling on
the use tax, even though we already tax airline travel
quite a bit. I don't want to pay for this
if I never fly.
Speaker 2 (24:52):
So let's get into this actually just because I think
it's an interesting conversation because A so a couple things.
First of all, a use tax. Basically, what that means
is that you're gonna charge by the plane, correct.
Speaker 3 (25:07):
Like it might plane whatever you want.
Speaker 2 (25:09):
Well, again, like, it's not just passenger planes the passing
these areas, it's cargo. So you end up charging by
the plane or buy the pound or whatever it ends
up being. Ultimately, that just means that those costs are
gonna get passed through somewhere else in the system. Correct,
We're all gonna end up paying for it anyways. Yeah,
Like I'm a big The more I've looked at how
governments like try to justify doing this and that and everything,
(25:33):
I've kind of gotten to the point where I'm like,
if you want to like raise the money, just raise
the money. If you want to spend the money, just
spend the money. Don't come up with all these justifications
for well, if we get the formula just right, it'll
target the right.
Speaker 3 (25:47):
It never actually works, like you end up.
Speaker 2 (25:49):
This is how you build the bureaucracy is through trying
to be like, well, now we need to measure if
someone's getting this just right. If you want to spend
the money, spend the money, like, don't worry about like
is it gonna affect every group equally or this one
just a little bit.
Speaker 3 (26:05):
If you want to do it, go do it.
Speaker 2 (26:07):
So I don't like being like, oh, like we're gonna
do a use tax, because that then you got to
be like, Okay, now we have to hire a bunch
of people into the government in order to monitor the
use tax and make sure it's being collected properly and
no one's skirting it. Just raise the money if you
want to do it, you know, like simple is better
it is.
Speaker 4 (26:27):
However, this is the way we come back, We come
back full circle to the way that this has been
paid for for decades now has been just well, I'll
just spend the money and we'll raise the taxes later.
Speaker 2 (26:39):
No, it's not like we have like a gas tax
that's supposed to be allocated to roads. Is that how
it actually works in reality? No, it's not beyond this
the idea that hey, we need to know like if
the money is like being recouped in this, does anyone
look at the US military and be like, why aren't
they making money.
Speaker 3 (26:57):
No, No, because their job is not to make money.
It's to keep us safe.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
Air traffic control is not supposed to make money. It's
supposed to keep us safe. Like a there's certain things
where you can be like okay, like this is a
revenue raising enterprise. Air traffic control is not one of them. Nope,
Like I don't want it to make money. I wanted
to keep plane safe. On a related note or kind
of related note, one of the most embarrassing recalls that
(27:24):
I have seen for an automaker, not because it's inherently dangerous,
but just because of how how many people had to
somehow overlook this in order for it to happen. So
Volkswagen unveiled a couple of years ago their ID Buzz.
It's the VW bus that's electric now, and they rolled
it out about six or seven months ago, and they're
(27:45):
now recalling all of the ones that have been sold,
which is only about fifty six hundred, so fortunately for them,
it's not a huge recall. The reason that they're recalling
it is because, according to US regulations, the third seat
is so wide that it needs a third seat belt
and not just two of them, and so the fix
(28:08):
The fix is not hey, like, we'll install a third
seat belt or something like that. The fix is we're
gonna put a big piece of hard plastic in the
middle of that row in order to shrink the seat
and reduce seating capacity.
Speaker 3 (28:23):
So I have a few comments about this one, Volkswagen.
What is going on? How is you build an entire
car for the US market and then fail to understand
the regulations that apply to the US market.
Speaker 2 (28:34):
How is there not one guy whose specific job is
I need to understand every measurement in this car and
whether it fits within US regulation.
Speaker 3 (28:42):
By the way, this wasn't the only one.
Speaker 4 (28:44):
They also installed an emergency breaking notification that was amber
instead of red, which is against US regulation. Needs to
be recalled for that. That having been said, what are
we doing with these stupid car regulations? Well, there's play
ty of blame to go around here, and I'm sorry,
but a US regulation that says if the seat is
(29:05):
too wide, then we have to make it three seats
instead of two is kind of dumb. Let the car
maker decide what they want to put back there. So
long as there's a seat belts and you disclose how
many people can sit in the car. I really don't
see an issue with a seat being too wide. We're
kind of fat here in America. We need wide seats. Likewise,
if an emergency breaking alert is red an orange instead
(29:26):
of red.
Speaker 3 (29:28):
I'll figure it out right now.
Speaker 4 (29:30):
I don't think that's a necessary regulation for us to
have in the three thousand pages that who regulates all
of this probably nitsa that Iza has when you're manufacturing
a car. I think that's kind of silly and stupid.
We should do away with it. But Volkswagen, those are
the rules of the road. You should have figured it
out before you built these things, regardless of whether or
not they're you know, bad regulations, which I think there's
(29:51):
a pretty convincing case that, as you said, like as
long as you have you know, big letters, two people
in the back seat, okay, like who cares?
Speaker 3 (30:02):
Who cares?
Speaker 2 (30:03):
But having said that, the law says, hey, you get
you know, x inches of you know seat with per occupant.
There has to be someone at Volkswagen who knows that.
And if there's not, what are we doing here?
Speaker 3 (30:19):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (30:19):
Agreed, plenty of blame to go around, but uh, pretty
dumb for a rollout of such an important vehicle. Right,
this wasn't a new Jetta. No, this is sixty They're
not cheap.
Speaker 3 (30:34):
And the range is bad. Oh, the range is bad.
The range like miles or something like that. I don't
know who's gonna buy it.
Speaker 4 (30:40):
Yeah, it's and that's why it's not weighted down with
eight passengers.
Speaker 2 (30:44):
When they unveiled it, I was like, oh, like, this
looks fantastic, and then I saw the specs was like, eh,
I don't think that's gonna work. But uh, they've sold
fifty six hundred of them, which is not great. But
I guess the question is like, those are all the
people who are really interested, Like, what do your sales
look like? Do you get past them?
Speaker 3 (31:01):
Good question? I don't know.
Speaker 2 (31:02):
Let's take a quick break when we come back. Paul
Monica from Barons joins us after.
Speaker 1 (31:06):
This taras fears continue to grip markets, get the latest
straight from Wall Street right here on the Financial Exchange
Radio Network. The Financial Exchange Show podcast drops every day
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leave us a five star review. You're listening to the
Financial Exchange Radio Network. Ladies and gentlemen, the weekend.
Speaker 2 (31:41):
Alright, as promised, We are now joined by Paul Lamonica
from Barons.
Speaker 3 (31:47):
Paul, how are you today.
Speaker 6 (31:49):
I'm good. Thanks you guys do it.
Speaker 3 (31:51):
We're doing well.
Speaker 2 (31:51):
Let's talk a little bit about Decker's Outdoor for people
who aren't familiar with the company.
Speaker 3 (31:56):
Who are they and what do they sell to other
human beings?
Speaker 7 (32:00):
Yes, they sell some popular footwear to human beings, although
maybe not as popular as it used to be, which
is a concern. So this is a company that owns
the ug brand of Ugly shoes, but has really kind
of gained a lot of ground in recent years because
(32:20):
they also own Hookah, which is, you know, a sneaker
brand that sort of kind of came out of nowhere.
It is now, you know, you know, seemingly on the
feet of a lot of people in the same way
that Nike and Adidas are.
Speaker 6 (32:35):
But there are worries about.
Speaker 7 (32:37):
Sales momentum maybe slowing, and that has hit this once
hot stock. It's down more than forty percent this year.
Speaker 2 (32:45):
Is this a case of taste changing? Is it related
to tariffs and cost? Is it something else? What's going
on there?
Speaker 7 (32:52):
Yeah, tariffs are obviously one of the concerns.
Speaker 6 (32:58):
I think that you know, fashion is very fickle. So
there is you know, an.
Speaker 7 (33:04):
Element of you know, maybe you know, the Sneakers not
being as popular as they once were. You know, Nike
is trying to make a comeback obviously, Adidas is always
you know, a tough competitor.
Speaker 6 (33:18):
New Balance very popular as well.
Speaker 7 (33:20):
And then there's Sketchers, which you know they've struggled a
little bit also. But what's happening with Skechers might give
investors in Deckers a little bit of hope because Sketchers
announced earlier this week that it's going private, selling to
three G Capital for a nice premium. I don't think
that necessarily means that Deckers is you know, looking to
(33:41):
go private or sell out either. But if the stock
continues to slide, you do have to wonder if there
is a company out there that might look to scoop
it up at a bit of a premium.
Speaker 2 (33:53):
You mentioned they have, you know, a couple of brands
under their umbrella. Is there also something where maybe they
could be in the market for acquiring a just brands
or is that not in the cards for them?
Speaker 7 (34:02):
No, I think it's possible. I mean, given the stock weakness,
you know, they would probably look to do any deals
if they were thinking about it, you know, more likely
with you know cash, you know, as opposed to using
their shares which are no longer as attractive as as
acquisition currency. But yeah, I think it is possible that
(34:27):
you could see Decker's look to make some acquisitions. I'm
not really sure what other companies are out there that
would be a good fit per se.
Speaker 6 (34:37):
But you know, this is clearly an environment right now
where we're.
Speaker 7 (34:41):
Slowly starting to see some M and A picking up,
you know, particularly in the consumer space. The you know,
there have been a couple of you know, beverage deals
this year, you know, Pepsi buying you know, Poppy for example.
So it wouldn't shock me if they're thinking about deals,
But nothing jumps to mind as an obvious takeover target.
Speaker 2 (35:02):
I want to go back to the Sketchers deal that
you mentioned. How does anyone go out and I know
that was a pe deal, but how does anyone go
out and know how to value these companies given where
their supply chains are and with that tariff uncertainty right now?
Speaker 6 (35:17):
Yeah, I mean it's a great question.
Speaker 7 (35:18):
And when you look at Deckers, for example, their valuation
has taken a gigantic hit.
Speaker 6 (35:26):
The knock on this company before its big slide was
that it was very pricey.
Speaker 7 (35:30):
It was trading around thirty eight times earnings forecasts in
the early part of the year.
Speaker 6 (35:38):
That was a premium even the.
Speaker 7 (35:39):
Nike, which is you know, obviously dow component, the pre
eminent global brand. Now, because of this huge haircut that
Deckers has taken, the stock is at a reasonable price
of about twenty times earnings, which is below its five
year average obviously now at discount to Nike, and it's
even in a discount to the market the sp five
(36:01):
hundred as well. So the question for investors, obviously is
has this stock taken a big enough hit that it
is once again reasonably valued or is there more downside ahead?
Speaker 6 (36:15):
You know, analysts are starting to grow a little bit
more bullish.
Speaker 7 (36:20):
You know, you're seeing, you know, a bunch of analysts
that have price targets that are significantly higher than where
the stock is currently trading.
Speaker 2 (36:29):
Very good, Paul, appreciate you joining us today and hope
you have a great weekend and we'll talk to you.
Speaker 6 (36:35):
Yep, same you guys, appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (36:37):
That is paul A Monica from Baron's talking about deckers outdoor.
Speaker 3 (36:43):
Who you guys buy from for shoes these days. I'm
a new balanced guy now officially, Yep, I'm wearing right now.
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (36:52):
I just go to the store, I run in whatever
they tell me to and then so we're talking specifically
running shoes. Yeah, I'm a Brooks guy myself, got it.
I converted over about five six years ago. Had a
real bad experience with.
Speaker 2 (37:05):
Some Nikes in twenty sixteen, twenty seventeen. That might have
just been like me getting old, but I bought a
pair of like you remember, like the the phase where
they were trying to like slim down the shoes and everything,
and it was like a very like oh, like your
feet will like feel the road more. It was like
neutral shoes, and I think my feet felt the road
too much.
Speaker 3 (37:25):
Yeah, and I'm all about the cushion now. I love
love the cushion.
Speaker 4 (37:29):
You know. It's like yeah, so quick quick mention to
the WU socks for those who are local and considering.
I just saw the funniest promotion that you can possibly
come up for for a baseball game. May twenty first
is per in the Park where you can actually bring
your cat to a ballgame. Chuck and I were talking
(37:52):
during the break. I can't really imagine an activity that
a cat would like to attend less than a live
baseball game with lights, colors and always, but they're doing
it and it's creative. WU so's pretty good take, as
was the pass socks. I loved going to that stadium too,
But you do have fun.
Speaker 2 (38:10):
Your cat does have to be on a leash or
in the bag, yeah, during the game.
Speaker 3 (38:15):
So that's a little disappointing to me personally. You're vile,
jem very.
Speaker 2 (38:20):
Hope everyone has a great weekend. We'll see back here
on Monday. Busy week including a bunch of inflation data
on Monday. Well if the inflation data is not Monday,
but we'll see you Monday.
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