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October 24, 2024 38 mins
Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong wonder why Wall Street and investors are so afraid of the upcoming election when the data says the election isn't impactful. Inflation has cooled, why are Americans still seething over prices? Kroger and Walmart deny 'price surging'after adopting digital price tags. Home sales are on track for worst year since 1995. 
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Episode Transcript

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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(00:20):
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(00:43):
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(01:07):
This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck Zada and Mike Armstrong.

Speaker 2 (01:12):
Chuck, Mike and talker with you here. We are broadcasting
live from the Double Tree Hotel and Suites in Highnis.
There's a stampede running through the room now there is.
It's it's just fantastic. No, We've got a great crowd here.
We're having a great time talking to everyone and meeting
everyone here. So big thanks to everyone who has come
out today. We really appreciate it, and I hope you're

(01:35):
having as much fun as we are. Uh, the stock
market not really having any fun. It's just kind of
sitting there doing nothing. The Dow's off one hundred and
fifty seven points, the S and P's up five, the
nasdac's up eighty three. So it's just kind of hanging out,
just kind of chilling for the day. After a down
day yesterday. Tenure US Treasury is down four and a

(01:56):
half basis points to four point six percent, so it'sinuing
just to flutter in that four to two to four
to two four point twenty five range.

Speaker 3 (02:04):
We've got oil today.

Speaker 2 (02:05):
West Texas Intermediate down fifty seven cents a barrel to
seventy dollars and twenty cents a barrel the TRIPAA national
average four gas prices. When we look at the trend
that we've been on over really the last couple weeks. Now,
remember we were stuck in that three dollars and twenty
cent range for I don't know, it seemed like about

(02:26):
a month or so.

Speaker 3 (02:27):
And when we look at.

Speaker 2 (02:28):
Where things are moving on that front now we're down
another half cent overnight to three point fifteen even nationally.
So continuing to see gas prices sliding a little bit,
with oil hanging out in the low seventies. And then
gold today is up fifteen dollars an ounce to twenty
seven to forty four and forty cents, So that is

(02:49):
what is going on again. We are broadcasting live from
the Double Tree Hotel and Suites in Hyannas, and again
big thank you to everyone who has turned out to
see so far today.

Speaker 4 (03:01):
I have one other data point, not market related, but yeah,
data related.

Speaker 3 (03:04):
It is Thursday.

Speaker 4 (03:05):
So we got our jobless claims numbers, as we do
every single week, and we've talked about these at length,
but you know, there was a concern about potential uptick
in unemployment back in July of this year. Data came
out in August, and then we get these weekly data
points of hey, how many people filed for unemployment. It's
where you see those upticks first, and we are continuing
to just not see it. Weekending October nineteenth, the advanced

(03:29):
figure for seasonally adjusted jobless claims came in a two
hundred and twenty seven thousand, which was a decrease of
fifteen thousand from the previous week's revised up level. It
was only slightly revised up by the way that previous
week was came in a two hundred and forty one thousand,
and so, in spite of everything that you are seeing
with strikes at Boeing, with you know, layoffs downstream, they're

(03:52):
talking about furloughs at companies like Spirit Aerosystems, you know,
in I don't know correspondence with the fact that they're
not making it the jets over at Boeing. In spite
of the hurricane slamming parts of the Southeast, you are
just continuing to not see much of anything that I
would deem concerning in the labor market at the moment.

Speaker 3 (04:11):
You big, mean girls, fan.

Speaker 4 (04:13):
Mean girls, Yeah, yeah, a huge Tina Fey fans.

Speaker 2 (04:15):
So yeah, it's, uh, there's the whole thing, and you know,
mean girls, stop trying to make fetch happen. You've basically
got unemployment claim saying stop trying to make recession happen.

Speaker 3 (04:25):
Yeah, like that's kind of what they're they're saying.

Speaker 2 (04:27):
It's just there's there's no there there, and we've been
looking for it for a while and it's just not
showing up right now.

Speaker 4 (04:34):
And it doesn't mean it won't. It's just if you're
trying to make a compelling case that we are heading
for a recession right now, you don't have a lot
of compelling evidence.

Speaker 3 (04:42):
It's just really really really really really.

Speaker 2 (04:47):
Hard to have a recession if unemployment is not rising
and if you're not specifically, if you're not losing jobs,
you really think so, really, let's talk a little bit
about Mike about ten days from now, twelve days, I
don't know. It's however, many days from now, there is
a small election happening in the United States and for

(05:12):
some reason, it's got market participants all kinds of nervous.
You've got all kinds of hedging that is basically showing
up very clearly in the data right around election day,
like everyone is expecting something crazy to happen.

Speaker 3 (05:26):
That's that's just gonna be absolutely wild.

Speaker 2 (05:30):
And a couple things first, I found a piece from
twenty twenty from Forbes that had the S and P
five hundred price performance both heading into and coming out
of elections historically, and.

Speaker 3 (05:44):
Here's what it found.

Speaker 2 (05:46):
And it actually separated this by years in which the
incumbent party won and years in which the incumbent party lost.
And the day after an election, do you know how
much volatility there is?

Speaker 3 (05:58):
Not a lot?

Speaker 2 (05:59):
Less than one percent is the average price move of
the S and P five hundred? Okay, what about the
week after? Likewise, about one percent is the average price
move of the S and P five hundred. What about
in the year after, Like, hey, maybe it doesn't show
up right away. Five The average performance if the incumbent
party loses is typically up about three percent. If the

(06:21):
incumbent party wins, up about six. Again, I'm not saying
that this will happen. I'm just saying historically. So I know,
everyone gets.

Speaker 3 (06:28):
All like.

Speaker 2 (06:31):
For clem, yeah, like everyone gets you know, all uptight
about the election and everything.

Speaker 3 (06:36):
As well, they should no, no, no, no, no, hold.

Speaker 4 (06:39):
On, yes they should no no, no, have anything to
do with the stock market.

Speaker 2 (06:43):
No, no, I'm gonna even make the point no you shouldn't. Okay, okay,
And I'm going to make this point because ultimately, haven't
we been through like eight hundred elections now where it's like, oh,
this is the last election we're gonna have this, like
this is the most important one ever. They can't all
be the most important one ever. That means that we're

(07:05):
growing in importance every year, and I'm sorry, but we're
just not that important, Like it's it just can't always
be more important than the last one. I am right
there with you, Jack, So I do actually think we
all just need to chill out a little bit. We
all just got to chill out a little bit, because look,
I know a lot of different people. Some of them

(07:27):
really really like Democrats, some of them really like Republicans,
some of them don't like any of them.

Speaker 3 (07:34):
Some of them like, get all these people away from me.

Speaker 2 (07:37):
And all I know is that, look, if you were
sitting there in twenty twelve, in two thousand and eight
and you're like, man, that Obama don't like what he's
gonna do. I'm gonna I'm gonna pull all my money
out of the stock market because he's gonna run it
into the ground. Well, let me tell you, the market
did pretty well under Obama.

Speaker 4 (07:54):
Second best performance to Reagan.

Speaker 3 (07:56):
Ever, fantastic.

Speaker 2 (07:58):
And then I know a bunch of people back in
twenty sixteen and who said that Trump He's gonna end
the world as we know it. It's gonna be awful.
I'm gonna pull everything out and.

Speaker 3 (08:07):
Lo and behold, we're still here.

Speaker 2 (08:09):
And then a bunch of people who back in twenty twenty,
just four short years ago, said oh that that Biden. No, like,
it's gonna be even worse under him. S and P
five hundreds at all time highs last week. And it's
not to say that you have to like everything that
every party does. It's not to say that you have
to agree with that. Like the beauty of America is
that we don't have to agree with each other. It's
like I can say this on the air and the

(08:32):
Communist Party doesn't descend from above and pull me out
and say no, you can't say that, Like that's this
is what's great about being here. But ultimately, the point
that I'm trying to make is not that stocks always
go up, because I know that that's what it sounded
like when I said, Hey, after all these elections, like
things were fine, But it's much more that, Hey, regardless
of your personal feelings about any particular candidate, party, or

(08:55):
anything else, you gotta remember that investing based on your emotions.

Speaker 3 (09:00):
Is just a horrible way to invest.

Speaker 2 (09:03):
It's just a I mean, really doing anything based only
on your emotions is kind of a horrible way to
do it. Like, you end up in kind of some
bad place if all you're doing is responding to your
emotions on a daily basis without any you know, self control.
So I think where I continue to land is. Look,
it's not to say that you're you're gonna have you know,
no movement after the election. Each party has, you know,

(09:27):
specific industries and sectors that they want to support in
specific constituents that they want to you know, provide tax
cuts for spending for Like I'm not saying that that
stuff doesn't happen, but let's just contextualize this a little bit,
because I talk to so many people that are so
concerned about Hey, like this election is gonna be what
move moves markets and quite honestly, usually when everyone's looking

(09:50):
at something and there's so much fear that's already in markets,
it's kind of tough for that to be the thing
that actually moves them.

Speaker 4 (09:56):
I would just you know, we're sitting in front of
some I'm bad at estimating thirty people.

Speaker 3 (10:01):
Razor hand.

Speaker 4 (10:02):
If you know who's going to be the president next
raizor hand, if you know who's going to win the Senate,
the House.

Speaker 3 (10:09):
The senate's actually kind of predictable, quite honestly.

Speaker 4 (10:11):
Let's say you knew all of those three things, you
had that crystal ball, you were right, you had it all,
and you knew who was going to win, which, by
the way, that could make you a lot of money.
There's a lot of betting sites that'll you know, you
can make some money on this.

Speaker 2 (10:21):
You can get dollars for fifty percent off on basically everything.

Speaker 4 (10:24):
Tell me what's gonna happen to the s and P
five hundred based.

Speaker 3 (10:26):
On all that? I don't know. Nobody does it.

Speaker 4 (10:30):
Again. Elections have consequences. They are very important for a
lot of different reasons. What the stock market's going to
do based on them is just not one of those reasons.

Speaker 3 (10:42):
That's why I land on it.

Speaker 4 (10:43):
It's true, with that plenty of stuff to get nervous
and worry about. How the stock market reacts to the
next election is just probably not one of them.

Speaker 2 (10:53):
Let's take a quick break and then after we come back,
we'll do a little bit of trivia, and then we'll
get all nervous about inflation again. I think that'll be
really fun. Great is that when we return.

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Speaker 4 (12:52):
Tucker, you better be prepared to cut our mice because
you just know someone down here in Hyannas it's gonna
scream the answer out.

Speaker 3 (12:57):
I probably would.

Speaker 5 (12:59):
I gotta delble to answer us.

Speaker 3 (13:00):
It's fine, repeat the question. No, move on, go let's
talk a little bit about inflation. Okay, great piece from
the Wall Street Journal. No.

Speaker 2 (13:12):
I actually think it's a good piece because I do
think there's something here. It's titled Inflation is Cool, but
Americans are still seething over prices. The seething is probably
a little bit dramatic, but the premise is pretty straightforward. Hey,
prices went up really rapidly during twenty twenty one through
twenty twenty three, and we're still dealing with the psychological

(13:33):
toll from this. And quite honestly, I think it's more
than this in that. Look, if if you ask Americans,
we've seen all the polling now where if you ask
Americans how they feel about the economy, they're kind of like,
it's not great. If you ask them how they feel
about themselves, they say everything's like pretty good, but they
say the economy as a whole isn't great. A lot

(13:53):
of this, I think is just like the self preservation
instinct and that we always say we're okay. Like, even
if you look at the financial crisis, when the polling
got really bad on the economy, there was almost no
change in how people rated their own situations. So I think,
like we just respond, yeah, I'm fine, I'll be okay.
But especially around here, it's tough Yankees. You can have

(14:14):
tears pouring from your eyes. How you doing just fine?

Speaker 3 (14:17):
Great? All my dogs just died. But I'll make it. Yeah,
you know.

Speaker 2 (14:21):
But in any case, if you look at the last
four years they've been they've all been hard economically for
different reasons. Like twenty twenty, I don't even have to
really go there. It was just like high unemployment, the
economy stopped your supply chain issues, ya da, Like just
everything was a mess. Twenty twenty one. Hey, you're trying
to reopen all this stuff, and like you can't hire

(14:42):
enough workers. You get like you do have delays on
all kinds of things. Prices start going up. It's it's
a real mess too. Twenty twenty two. Hey, prices are
going up, you know, nine ten percent a year based
on CPI data, Like it's really hot inflation twenty twenty three.
Inflation's still hot, and finally by the end of twenty three,
the economy is starting to get back to normal, but

(15:03):
still hotter than expected, harder than normal inflation. This year,
twenty twenty four has been the first year that I
think you could point to where you're like, yeah, it
might not be perfect, but things are, you know, really
quite good right now in terms of where they stand.
But psychologically, Mike, people don't think about year over year truck, No, No,

(15:24):
you're missing my point. My point is we've been.

Speaker 3 (15:27):
Through four really hard years.

Speaker 2 (15:30):
We also feel a little bit beat up from them,
and we've been like beaten by completely different things. It's like, oh, good,
I finally got a handle on you know, when that
store is going to be open, and then hey, now
everything's backlogged.

Speaker 3 (15:42):
You know, now they're finally open.

Speaker 2 (15:44):
Okay, they finally have things in stock, but the price
is up ten percent from where it was before.

Speaker 4 (15:48):
Never got my bathroom mirror.

Speaker 3 (15:50):
You never got your bathroom mirror.

Speaker 4 (15:51):
Sober happened.

Speaker 2 (15:52):
I think the point that I'm trying to make is, hey,
we've been through a lot in the last four years,
and that doesn't just go away overnight. Like we don't
just wake up and say, yeah, everything's great now. It
takes us a little bit of time to get over that,
quite honestly.

Speaker 4 (16:09):
Like in the aggregate, according to the government's own CPI
datas for September of twenty twenty four, prices are up
a full twenty two point seven percent from September of
twenty nineteen.

Speaker 3 (16:21):
That is painful.

Speaker 4 (16:23):
My only complaint about the story that we covered is
not that it was a bad story. It's merely that's
been written every single day since twenty twenty four. Started
like literally this, this exact story from the Wall Street Journal,
of the title of which is inflation is cool, but
Americans are still seething over prices. I do feel has
been covered by every major news publication every single week

(16:44):
since January twenty twenty four, and I'm just a little bit.

Speaker 3 (16:47):
Sick of the headline. I think it's it's true free.

Speaker 4 (16:50):
Nothing about it is false. I think it's going to
vastly influence how people vote this year, is vastly influencing
questions about how people feel about the economy. I don't
disagree with any of the points it makes. I just
don't think it's a terribly useful article. In October of
twenty twenty four, when we know this more interesting question.
Everything that's being written about inflation seems to be indicating

(17:15):
or predicting that it is completely dead. And we ourselves
have said, for this point in time, inflation is not
the narrative. It's dead for right now, we don't have
to worry about it. What are the scenarios where it
can be a concern? Again, my argument would be, there's
almost no chance that we get back to what we
were dealing with in twenty twenty two because we had
a very unique combination of supply chain disasters due to

(17:37):
COVID shutdowns plus stimulus. I don't think there's a circumstance
in the next few years where we get that combination
of both of those two forces at the same time.
But could you get one of them? I think so well,
outside of you.

Speaker 2 (17:55):
Know, one off geopolitical events and things like that, I
think any way that you get back there, I'm yeah, I'm.

Speaker 4 (18:02):
More focused on the stimulus part. You know, if you
get the massive tax cuts that are being discussed, then
you've got a lot more cash in people's pockets.

Speaker 3 (18:10):
If you've even there, it's a fraction of the size.

Speaker 2 (18:12):
Yeah, I mean, like you talk about the projections that
you're seeing from the CBO, and you're seeing like, okay,
the deficit would expand by you know, four to seven trillion.

Speaker 3 (18:21):
Over a ten year period. Yep, we did four trillion
in a year.

Speaker 2 (18:26):
Yeah, you know, like it's you're talking quite literally an
order of magnitude smaller. So I don't have concerns that
we're heading back there. Look, if you get something weird
happening with Iran and oil prices, you know, double okay, Yeah,
you've got some transitory energy related inflation and it goes
away as soon as the situation is resolved.

Speaker 3 (18:46):
Yep.

Speaker 2 (18:47):
If you have something related to you know, China and Taiwan, yeah,
it's probably a bigger, longer term problem because you can't
just you know, build chip foundries very easily.

Speaker 3 (18:58):
No, it's it's.

Speaker 2 (18:59):
Kind of I'm trying to in my basement. It's not
going well, and so it's it's something where I just
don't see it other than those cases where you have
a true war breaking out, you know, on a global level,
and that's just not something that you can plan as
far as like, hey, it's gonna happen to like I

(19:20):
don't know when. If you know, something would happen, so
I think it's it's not my big concern because we
don't have the conditions in place that otherwise would make
you concerned about inflation.

Speaker 3 (19:33):
Quick break Here we got the trivia answer. Next.

Speaker 1 (19:41):
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Speaker 5 (20:09):
Trivia question today was which candy did Marshawn Lynch eat
during NFL games? That would be Skittles, and he parlayed
his love of Skittles into a multimillion dollar endorsement deal
with the company. Bob from Dorchester, mass was our winner today,
taking on the Financial Exchange Show t shirt. Bob's also
registered to win a one hundred dollars gift card to

(20:30):
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to you by Apple Bee's. Enjoy half priced Latenight appetizers
after nine pm and join Club Applebee's to enjoy exclusive
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prohibited dine and only mich Let's.

Speaker 2 (20:49):
Talk a little bit about this story from the New
York Times. It is about Kroger and Walmart moving to
utilize digital price labels in their stores. So right now,
if you're walking down the aisle and the supermarketings say, hey,
the cheerios are five seventy nine a box. Okay, that's

(21:09):
on a little plastic thing that you know right now
they have to manually move in.

Speaker 3 (21:13):
And out and blah blah blah.

Speaker 2 (21:14):
Sure, Walmart and Kroger saying, hey, we found an easier
way to do this. We basically put a little, you know,
digital screen there that's very low energy, and we can
you know, send a signal to update the price based
on what we're seeing out there. So if the oranges
are starting to get a little bit old, hey cut
him by ten cents an ounce and see if he
can get a moving off the shelf.

Speaker 4 (21:35):
Yeah, and there are, obviously, I think everyone can imagine
some potential abuses of this, such as hurricanes rolling through
so jack up water bottles by seventy five percent, or
you can even imagine things that.

Speaker 3 (21:50):
I'm not worried about that at Walmart or Kroker.

Speaker 4 (21:52):
I'm not either, Like they don't they don't price gouge
like that. So I mean, first things first, this is
in my mind inevitable, right. It's saves these companies a
boatload of money by not needing to send somebody down
the aisle with a price gun and update the price
tags on everything. It does bring up the possibility of

(22:12):
very timely changes in prices that I think has some
people nervous and my answers, I guess too bad. I mean,
prosecute them if it's something like I just described of
price gouging, which is pretty much illegal in every state
when there's a national when there's an emergency going on.
But you know, the things that will probably be more
common with this type of thing that is just not

(22:35):
really feasible today. Yeah, you've got a bunch of avocados
that are about to start going bad, or those bag
salads with you know, expiration dates on them, you can
quickly update the pricing and also put like a banner
at the front of your store immediately, you know, paying,
you know, bringing people's attention to them with a digital banner.
And discounting those items. The you know, other stuff that

(22:56):
you can see happening though, would be Oh, the weather
forecast changed and you know we're having an unseasonably warm
week here in New England, for example. So does Groger
and Walmart bump up the price of summer like items
sodas and beer and grillables. Probably, but they probably already do.

(23:17):
They probably would anyway, it's just easier for them now.

Speaker 2 (23:21):
You know what I would love in terms of like
the food spoilage side of things.

Speaker 4 (23:26):
No, I don't know.

Speaker 3 (23:27):
I would love to get.

Speaker 2 (23:29):
Text alerts when they have stuff that's gonna go bad
the next day.

Speaker 4 (23:32):
You're such a cheap skate.

Speaker 2 (23:34):
Hey, these avocados are really freaking ripe. You want to
make guac? Come get them.

Speaker 3 (23:40):
Right now they're half off.

Speaker 2 (23:42):
Yeah, Like I think something like that would be great.
And look, you could set them for you know, the
stuff that you want, Like, I don't need an update
that you know, oh, like you you know the I'm
not really a I'm not really an eggplant person. It's
fine when it's kind of fried in a bunch of batter,
but other than that's kind of like, what are you?

Speaker 3 (23:57):
Like, why do we have it.

Speaker 2 (23:59):
I don't need that, but yeah, like, hey, we're doing
two for one cheeses because the cheese is gonna go
bad tomorrow. Chuck could be in there, life, sign me up,
I'll have a party tonight. Like, let's do it.

Speaker 4 (24:10):
Yeah, I mean, my biggest problem with this story is
Congress starting to ask questions of the companies as to
why they're using the digital price tags and you know,
how are you going to ensure that you're not price gouging?
And one, they haven't even implemented the digital price tags yet. Two,
there's nothing been insinuated that they intend to do anything
with this other than make it easier for them to

(24:30):
update their prices, which they do daily. Anyway, this is
just cutting out some of the cost of doing so,
and it probably will end up cutting both ways. Will
there be more price changes to the upside because it's
easier for them to do so? Yes, absolutely, that's also
not price gouging.

Speaker 2 (24:47):
I also think that Look, I'm a big believer. Hey,
the role of government is to you know, solve problems
that people can't solve on their own. That's why we
have like the military, which is run by the government.
Because you don't want the two of us out there like, hey,
we're defending the country, you know, like that would go badly.

(25:07):
We wouldn't really do much bind ten feet tall. Yeah,
it wouldn't like people would run over us in two minutes.
Like it would go really badly for the entire country
if we were, you know, personally responsible. So I think
that in this case, I look at it and you say, okay, like,
what's what's the potential downside? Okay, it's wal Mart and
Kroger can raise their prices on groceries in ways they

(25:28):
couldn't otherwise. Well, how do we mitigate that without being like, hey,
this is the right price for milk, Because there is
no right price for milk.

Speaker 3 (25:36):
You have competition.

Speaker 2 (25:37):
I keep coming back to you need to find ways
to have more competition in the grocery space, which it's
hard to because if if you've ever talked to anyone
who works, like in the business side of a grocery store,
it's an awful business. You basically spend At this point,
let's say you're building like a new market basket or
stop and shop or whole Foods or whatever it is.
The premise is pretty simple. You identify where there's you know,

(26:01):
not enough grocery stores to begin with. You spend about
twenty to thirty million dollars building a grocery store up front,
and then you make two cents an item for the
next thirty years in order to actually make a profit
on the thing. It's it's just it's a horrible business,
and I think it's it's one where look if if

(26:22):
you want to find a way to you know, mitigate this, it's, hey,
how do we, you know, make it easier to open
grocery stores and have competition in that space, because then
if Walmart's raising its prices, okay, I can go across
the street to Kroger that you know, they're both there
now instead of just one, and they're not doing that
because they want my business.

Speaker 4 (26:40):
Can I mention some of the dystopian like scary stuff
that you know, I worry about with this type of thing, though,
Like I don't want grocery prices to be priced like
airline tickets, right, Like I can easily foresee a future
where Walmart, because I've got the Walmart app on my phone,
understands that you know, Mike Armstrong entered the store and
is walking down the canned food aal right now, and oh,

(27:02):
looks like we were able to see that his paycheck
and credit information is pretty good, and so let's switch
all those prices up by thirty percent because Mike can pay.
And like, I spell that out as something that I
do not expect to happen, because guess what, I'm never
going back to that store if that happens. But with
the scary level of information that companies have about each

(27:24):
and every one of us because of how we behave
and how we download apps to do our shopping, that
is the level of like, you know, these companies know
the day you get paid, they know your credit score,
they know your browsing history, they know a lot of
kind of creepy information about you. And digital price tags
don't really change that significantly. But you know, that scenario

(27:45):
that I just played out isn't impossible.

Speaker 2 (27:47):
I think some of that could help, though, Like, hey, Chuck,
we noticed you haven't bought vegetables in three weeks. Here's
half off any vegetable just because you're gonna get scurvy.
I could see it being a positive too.

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(28:42):
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Speaker 1 (28:51):
The proceeding was paid for and the views expressed are
solely those of Cushing and Dolan. Cushing and Dolan and
or Armstrong Advisory may contact you offering legal or investment services.
Cushing and Armstrong to not dorse each other and are
not affiliated.

Speaker 2 (29:02):
Michaelet's talk a little bit about the existing home sales
data that we have so far this year. Through September
of this year, we have seen three point zero seven
million home sales in the United States. This puts us
on track for a full year total that would be
around three point eight three point nine million, which would

(29:23):
be the worst year in total home sales since nineteen
ninety five. That's twenty nine years ago. For those of
you who do in the math at home, do.

Speaker 4 (29:30):
You know how many more people are living in the
United States today compared to nineteen ninety five.

Speaker 3 (29:34):
If I had to guess sixty million seventy eight it
was okay, yeah, pretty close.

Speaker 4 (29:39):
Seventy eight million more people living in the United States,
and we have the same volume of home sales as
we did in nineteen ninety five. That is well, I mean,
nobody's surprised looking around the room, like there's no homes
for sale. I understand all of that. But what's just
fascinating is that we've still had a reasonable level of
economic activity going on without these home sales.

Speaker 2 (30:00):
This is the piece that is is kind of interesting
to me. Is look normally like pre twenty twenty two,
when rates started rising, you're typically seeing about five and
a quarter to five and a half million units a
year selling, So you've got including last year where you
ended up with you know, about four million, So you've
got you know, kind of a home purchase deficit of

(30:23):
like two to three million units right now that there
are a lot of people that otherwise would have normally
moved the last couple of years, is what I'm getting at.
And this is why, Look, even if you do think
a recession is coming, I tend to be of the
view that it might be pretty mild and might be
pretty short simply because hey, the second that rate sniff
out a recession coming and the ten year treasury goes

(30:45):
to three to two, when the you know, thirty year
mortgage goes to five to five, Well, how many people
come off the sidelines at that point and say, hey,
I can list my home because rates are lower and
I don't have to worry about, you know, going from
a four percent mortgage to an eight percent mortgage to
a seven And how many people say, hey, I can
now finally buy a place at five and a half

(31:05):
percent rates, And what kind of activity do we get
coming out of that? So I think it's kind of
an interesting dynamic where because there's been such a little
activity for the last couple of years. In housing, there's
so many people that want to move right now and
haven't been able to that once finally, you know, free
of high interest rates. I just think that you get

(31:26):
properties going left and right, and I think that's the
natural counterbalance to any kind of recession.

Speaker 3 (31:30):
We see why. I agree.

Speaker 4 (31:32):
What sort of certainty do you have that mortgage rates
get back down to five to five anytime in the
next two years.

Speaker 3 (31:37):
If there's a recession. I feel pretty confident about it.

Speaker 4 (31:42):
Yeah, are you too. I just I have no reliable
way of predicting whether or not we'll have a recession
in the next two years, And if we don't, then
I'm not so certain we'll get there.

Speaker 2 (31:50):
Then there's just more people to buy when the recession
eventually hits. Yes, So sticking with it. Just take a
quick break here. When we come back, it's time for
a little bit of stack roulette.

Speaker 1 (32:00):
If you missed any of today's show, catch up whenever
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Speaker 3 (32:22):
All morning Loan.

Speaker 1 (32:23):
This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network.

Speaker 5 (32:28):
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Speaker 3 (33:02):
Mike, what do you have for me for stack Roulette Today?

Speaker 4 (33:04):
I have another one of those creepy companies spying on
you stories that I want to share. Have you ever
been to the Into It Dome south of Los Angeles
where the Clippers play.

Speaker 2 (33:13):
That used to be the Crypto dot Com Arena, but
during Cryptopeak, I.

Speaker 4 (33:17):
Believe Okay, well I've never been, but these days, if
you want to get this too, If it's called the
into It Dome, does that mean that we've reached like.

Speaker 3 (33:25):
Peak tax repair. I don't know.

Speaker 2 (33:28):
I guess so, because my general rule of thumb is
that once you name a stadium after your product, usually
you've run out of good ideas and your companies on
the way down.

Speaker 4 (33:36):
Fair To get inside the into It Dome, you first
have to download the official app for the into It Dome.

Speaker 3 (33:43):
Is it intuitive?

Speaker 4 (33:45):
Probably not. The app will have your payment processor on there.
It's also using facial recognition technology, so they want you
to take a picture of your face and pay for
your concessions with your face rather than a scanned app
or a credit card.

Speaker 2 (34:02):
When you say take like you say you download, I
feel like a face print somewhere.

Speaker 3 (34:07):
It is clear.

Speaker 4 (34:09):
It looks like it might just be a camera. You
do one of those walk through concessions and they just
scan your face to determine.

Speaker 3 (34:15):
What you purchased. Uh.

Speaker 4 (34:17):
Furthermore safe, the app has the ability to monitor how
loud you are in the venue and do things like
maybe offer discounts on concessions for those particularly loud customers.
Who are getting really into the concert or the game,
and uh, why does this need to exist? But when
are we going to get to the point where we

(34:38):
look at this stuff and say, no, this is far
too weird and creepy. I am not taking a picture
of my face with your app so you can market
to me in the future and have way too much
information about me. And then, furthermore, how many times do
we all need to be hacked before we stop giving
these companies this information. They don't need my credit card information,
they don't need a picture of my face, and they

(35:00):
definitely don't need to listen to me from my pocket
to determine how loudly I'm cheering for the concert.

Speaker 3 (35:05):
So you need to have this app in order to
get in.

Speaker 4 (35:08):
That's according to the source that I'm seeing here Marketplace.
That is, I'm sure like at Fenway Park, if you
want to use cash, there's a way to do it.
That's a giant pain, because it's still true that some
people don't have smartphones therefore wouldn't be able to download
the app. But yeah, the piece I'm seeing says, if
you want to get into the into a dome dome,

(35:28):
you must first download the official app I guess Dome. Yeah,
I wasn't planning on it anyway, but certainly is not
going to be checking the box anytime soon.

Speaker 2 (35:38):
Mike, are you familiar with the German company Lilium. No,
they are trying to make air taxis. How's that going
for him?

Speaker 3 (35:45):
Badly?

Speaker 2 (35:46):
The shares are down fifty three percent today after filing
that they believe that their two subsidiaries are going to
have to file for insolvency under German law. So I
know that we all want to be, you know, the
jetson zipping around in the air, because hey, that'll help
us avoid the traffic. But hey, they don't tell you
that once everyone's zipping around in the air, you're with

(36:07):
the traffic then.

Speaker 3 (36:09):
And beyond that.

Speaker 4 (36:11):
Look, did anybody think it was gonna be cheap to
build mini planes?

Speaker 2 (36:15):
Well, look that's a whole different thing. I'm just looking at,
you know, the basic blocking and tackling before we get
to the cost. What happens when you have an accident
in the sky. You fall?

Speaker 3 (36:26):
Yeah. Yeah, right now we're on the ground.

Speaker 2 (36:29):
And we still have fifty thousand people a year dying
in traffic down. Sure, Hey, let's just put all those
people up in the sky and see what happens on
top of that.

Speaker 4 (36:36):
Again, it worked for the Jetsons. I'm sure we can
figure it out.

Speaker 2 (36:39):
Which was a documentary admittedly, but I think the thing here,
there's a bunch of these companies and ultimately, look, if
it were cheap to five people from point A to
point B using you know, some kind of small aircraft
that's built to do so, we'd all be taking helicopters
to work. Yeah, it's just not gonna work.

Speaker 3 (37:01):
Well, no, it will.

Speaker 2 (37:02):
Yeah, fine for the guy who owns like, yeah, you know,
owns the Intuit Dome.

Speaker 4 (37:07):
Again, you know, if you can afford to take a
helicopter from one part of Manhattan to another, then you'll
be able to afford this too. But anyone trying to
sell it is how we're all going to get around
in the future, I think might be missing the ball
a little bit.

Speaker 2 (37:19):
Who is the company that was partnering with Blade, the
helicopter company to offer rewards under them?

Speaker 3 (37:24):
Was it jet Blue or Uber?

Speaker 2 (37:26):
Someone like this? Misguided someone like that. Do you know
where most of Blade's business comes from? Actually no, it's
from uh like basically shipping organs and stuff.

Speaker 4 (37:36):
Act it's like medical, like I have to get it
there quick.

Speaker 3 (37:39):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (37:39):
So if you actually look at like the high end
growth for Blade, it's not taking people from one side
of New York to the other, but rather it's like, hey, no,
we're doing really important medical work carrying organs and stuff
like that, which is kind of cool and like a
really good company I find use case. Yeah, good exactly.
Not hey, I've got to go three blocks. Let me

(37:59):
call it helicopter. Yeah yeah, not really what you want
to see. Stocks are mixed as we head towards the
top of the hour. The SMP is flat, the Dow
is down two thirty four, the Nasdaq is up sixty nine.

Speaker 3 (38:11):
We're done for the day.

Speaker 2 (38:12):
Thank you to everyone who turned out in Hyanas today
with us, and we will see y'all tomorrow on the
Financial Exchange,
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