November 28, 2025 • 24 mins
In this extended episode, host Phil Tower speaks with Storm Team 8 Chief Meteorologist, Ellen Bacca. She joined us for a look back at some of the biggest weather stories from 2025 and for an in-depth look at the Storm Team 8 Winter Weather Outlook for 2025-2026.
Some Key 2025 Michigan Weather Events:
• A Historic Northern Michigan Ice Storm (March 28–30): An "unprecedented" ice storm struck northern Michigan, coating surfaces with up to 1.5 inches of ice. The event caused extensive damage, and Governor Whitmer declared a state of emergency.
• Record-Active Tornado Season: In fact, Michigan had one of its most active tornado years on record, with a total of 33 confirmed tornadoes by September, more than double the annual average of around 13. The majority of the 33 tornadoes in 2025 were weak, classified as EF-0 or EF-1, which typically cause tree and minor property damage rather than significant structural devastation.
• We also experienced a uniquely hot summer, as the summer of 2025 was noted as one of the hottest on record, not necessarily due to extreme daytime highs, but because of consistently high overnight temperatures.
For the remainder of the conversation, we asked Storm Team 8 Chief Meteorologist Ellen Bacca to highlight some of the key points of their recently released winter weather outlook for 2025-2026.
Storm Team 8 identified some key forecast drivers and a big wildcard that will impact our winter ahead, namely, a weak La Niña to start the winter--Teleconnection signals in the Gulf of Alaska and the impact of the Siberian snowpack and polar vortex activity on our weather locally.
Ellen said the official Storm Team 8 forecast indicates a good chance that La Niña will fade by January, with neutral conditions favored from January through March.
TAKEAWAYS:
Storm Team 8 Chief Meteorologist Ellen Bacca added that no two winters are ever the same, especially in West Michigan.
Winter outlooks can help shed light on trends by examining past years and established scientific linkages. Winter outlooks are based on more than a dozen variables worldwide. Changes in just one variable can have an impact on our winter here in West Michigan.
This upcoming winter is expected to start cold and snowy, with active lake-effect conditions in December and a good chance of heavy snow systems in January and February.
This winter is expected to wrap up on time with near-average snow for the season and above-average snow in the month of December. Seasonally, Grand Rapids typically averages 76-78 inches of snow on average.
The Complete Storm Team 8 Winter Weather Outlook:
Weather “Teleconnections” Explained
Some Key 2025 Michigan Weather Events:
• A Historic Northern Michigan Ice Storm (March 28–30): An "unprecedented" ice storm struck northern Michigan, coating surfaces with up to 1.5 inches of ice. The event caused extensive damage, and Governor Whitmer declared a state of emergency.
• Record-Active Tornado Season: In fact, Michigan had one of its most active tornado years on record, with a total of 33 confirmed tornadoes by September, more than double the annual average of around 13. The majority of the 33 tornadoes in 2025 were weak, classified as EF-0 or EF-1, which typically cause tree and minor property damage rather than significant structural devastation.
• We also experienced a uniquely hot summer, as the summer of 2025 was noted as one of the hottest on record, not necessarily due to extreme daytime highs, but because of consistently high overnight temperatures.
For the remainder of the conversation, we asked Storm Team 8 Chief Meteorologist Ellen Bacca to highlight some of the key points of their recently released winter weather outlook for 2025-2026.
Storm Team 8 identified some key forecast drivers and a big wildcard that will impact our winter ahead, namely, a weak La Niña to start the winter--Teleconnection signals in the Gulf of Alaska and the impact of the Siberian snowpack and polar vortex activity on our weather locally.
Ellen said the official Storm Team 8 forecast indicates a good chance that La Niña will fade by January, with neutral conditions favored from January through March.
TAKEAWAYS:
Storm Team 8 Chief Meteorologist Ellen Bacca added that no two winters are ever the same, especially in West Michigan.
Winter outlooks can help shed light on trends by examining past years and established scientific linkages. Winter outlooks are based on more than a dozen variables worldwide. Changes in just one variable can have an impact on our winter here in West Michigan.
This upcoming winter is expected to start cold and snowy, with active lake-effect conditions in December and a good chance of heavy snow systems in January and February.
This winter is expected to wrap up on time with near-average snow for the season and above-average snow in the month of December. Seasonally, Grand Rapids typically averages 76-78 inches of snow on average.
The Complete Storm Team 8 Winter Weather Outlook:
Weather “Teleconnections” Explained
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
We are devoting this entire program to weather. This is
a long overdue update and check in with Storm teammate
Chief Mediorologist Ellen Baka. She's busy working as we record
this episode, and you're hearing us on the radio Thanksgiving
weekend Sunday. But just suffice it to say, Ellen is,
(00:22):
without a doubt, one of the hardest working people I
know in local media. And I've been in this market
for a while. I think most of our listeners know that.
It's great to have you back in the program.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Hi Ellen, Hi Phil, and right back at you.
Speaker 3 (00:36):
I feel like you are one of the hardest workers
I've seen as well. It is so great to talk
to you guys today about weather and this upcoming winter.
Speaker 1 (00:45):
Yeah, and stay tuned. This is a teaser for our
radio listening audience. We have some really important things that
are about to drop for December, and we're going to
do a deep dive on the winter weather Outlook, which
is available at woodtv dot com.
Speaker 4 (01:00):
And you might have.
Speaker 1 (01:01):
Seen Ellen and the Storm teammate folks talk about that
over several newscasts, but we're going to get into that.
Speaker 4 (01:08):
In just a moment.
Speaker 1 (01:09):
I wanted to speak with you Ellen, about some of
the kind of notable weather events in twenty twenty five.
One of those was a pretty significant ice storm in March,
and I remember this made a lot of news. It
made national news in terms of the impact one point
five inches of ice on trees, power lines, just about everything.
(01:30):
It was labeled as an unprecedented ice storm for Michigan.
It's certainly not entirely unheard of, but something we haven't
had to that level in a while, right.
Speaker 3 (01:40):
Right, And when it comes to ice storms, they usually
are very difficult to forecast, and sometimes the parameters have
to be just perfect in order for glaze ice to
stack up to the caliber that it did in northern Michigan.
So oftentimes when we see freezing rain, the accumulations are
limited to like a quarter of an inch. The fact
(02:02):
that we saw accumulations greater than an inch quite rare,
and we usually only see an event like that once
every fifteen years or so in Michigan. If it falls
in the spot that is a little bit smaller geographically,
then you don't hear about it as much. But because
it was such a wide area, had massive impacts for
a lot of spots.
Speaker 1 (02:22):
And it's hard to forecast because the changing conditions can
impact ice or just a little bit of ice or
just all rain.
Speaker 4 (02:31):
Correct.
Speaker 2 (02:32):
Oh, totally yes.
Speaker 3 (02:33):
So it kind of is like if you're baking a
really special cake and you get one ingredient slightly.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
Off, then the whole cake can be ruined.
Speaker 3 (02:42):
When it comes to ice storms, everything has to be
perfect in order for you to get that culmination of
really disastrous conditions. So if you have air temperatures at
the surface that are in the twenties, which is like
perfect for glazed ice to develop, but you have too
high of relative humidity than the ice wond form, or
if the surface temperatures are a little too warm than
(03:04):
the ice whont form, and that same sort of setup
as you go higher in the atmosphere is especially true.
If you get something that's even a degree off, it
can totally change your forecast.
Speaker 2 (03:16):
So anytime we have an ice.
Speaker 3 (03:17):
Storm in the forecast, I hold my breath because I
just know that these systems are really tricky, but if
they come together, they are high impact.
Speaker 2 (03:28):
Like we saw in northern Michigan.
Speaker 1 (03:30):
A significant amount of damage to electrical and fiber infrastructure,
which certainly taking people offline and out of business. And
it was a big disaster. In fact, declared as this
disaster area by Governor Whitmer. The Michigan National Guard was deployed.
So it's certainly notable that was at the end of
(03:51):
March this year, March twenty eight through thirtieth, to be precise.
We also had ellen a record active tornado season. As
I was looking through notes on significant weather events for
twenty twenty five, this surprised me. I know, we did
have more tornado warnings that seemed like I heard about
it more as I watched the news and followed weather stories.
(04:13):
A record high thirty three tornadoes, the most active tornado
years on record, thirty three of those, more than double
the annual average, which is only around thirteen. Were surprised
by the high level of tornado activity.
Speaker 3 (04:28):
You know, any year can come to play when it
comes to tornadoes, so I don't think I was necessarily surprised.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
However, we were ready.
Speaker 3 (04:37):
We knew that spring was going to be quite active,
and one of the reasons why we saw so many
tornadoes this year specifically, is because we had a couple
of storm setups where we had powerful lines that produced
a lot of small tornadoes at once. So these are
often called quasi linear tornadoes, where you have a whole segment,
(05:00):
a whole stormline segment with a lot of little spin areas,
and at any point in time, that whole line of
storms can put down a quick tornado. That's exactly what
we saw at the tail end of March, which boosted
our accounts, and then again we saw in May May fifteenth.
I felt like we were in Oklahoma, fast moving line.
(05:22):
We had a really hot day and those tornadoes were forming,
touching down and then dissipating very very rapidly. So we
were I felt like as a play by play with
their first sports coverage because you just could not take
your eyes off the radar for a second. You had
tornadoes touching down in several counties and that really upped
(05:43):
our total quite quickly, especially in West Michigan early on
in the season. So again, sometimes you can kind of
look at a season and you can be like, this
one is probably going to come to play. We didn't
have a lot of like like single very powerful tornadoes
so like we've had in previous years with Gaylard and
the Portage tornado.
Speaker 4 (06:04):
That's a great point.
Speaker 1 (06:05):
I just want to point out something that I think
a lot of your viewers appreciate during a tornado warning situation,
especially impacting locally in Kent, kint of the Greater Grand
Rapids area, or anywhere in West Michigan. Yeah, you can
get that alert on the phone, but to get to
the level of depth of coverage you and your meteorologists
(06:25):
provide during that it's unprecedented and it's unmatched, and you
as just do a fantastic job. It is, like you said,
it's like calling a sporting event, but a very serious
and very high impact event because there's a lot of movement,
a lot of unpredictability. That radar technology has really made
(06:46):
that job easier, but it's still not perfect.
Speaker 4 (06:49):
It's not a perfect science yet, is it.
Speaker 2 (06:51):
No, it's not.
Speaker 3 (06:52):
And you're really juggling a lot of things at once.
You're getting a lot of data inbounds, things are changing
second by second, and sometimes when you look at these
our images they're a little fuzzy or they're not textbook right,
especially in Michigan. So you have to use your experience,
your judgment, and you also have to use a lot
of different tools to verify what you're seeing. Because the
(07:13):
last thing anyone wants is for you to like lose
your head on air and start, you know, saying everyone's
in danger, when really everyone needs to maybe be wise.
But there are a few pinpoint areas that are especially
at risk.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
I love my team.
Speaker 3 (07:29):
We do a lot of prep work so that we're
ready when severe weather situations strike, so that we can
be clear, we can get on top of it and
get the word out because again in Michigan, some of
these tornadoes can touch down quite quickly, you know, Phil,
I just have to laugh because one of the things
that we've really tried to do is not just call
(07:50):
out streets, but landmarks. And so in my brain, I'm
like looking, I'm looking, I'm looking, you know. And we
had one in May with that fast moving line, a
tornado that up right near Martin, and I was like, okay,
you know, landmarks. And I immediately looked at landmarks and
I said.
Speaker 2 (08:07):
Martin's Cemetery take cover.
Speaker 3 (08:09):
And then the moment I said it, I was like,
I mean, everybody around Martin Cemetery.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
But the truth is that's funny.
Speaker 3 (08:17):
I doubt anyone and is hanging out at the cemetery
during a thunderstorm. But all that to say We're always
trying to think of how can we be the most clear,
how can we call out things to people so that
if they are anxious at home, they can quickly take
action feel safe, be safe, and street names landmarks usually
(08:40):
are good, good tools for us to do that.
Speaker 1 (08:43):
Yeah, that's really important and I really appreciate it. I
know a lot of your storm teammate viewers appreciate it.
Storm teammate chief media relogist Ellen Baka with us on
this entire edition of West Michigan Weekend from iHeartRadio.
Speaker 4 (08:57):
It's worth noting.
Speaker 1 (08:59):
And before I knowe those thirty three tornadoes, I'm going
to add that point in just a moment. I wanted
to ask you a question I know you've had. I'm
sure a lot of people ask you about are we
going to get to the level with Kent County Emergency
Management and other counties across Michigan across the country where
we'll have more geographic specific warnings because a warning that
(09:23):
happens in southwest Kent County certainly is not impactful for
people living in Cedar Springs of the northeastern portion of
the county, or maybe even the far east portion of
the county. Where are we on that type of technology, Ellen, Yeah, that's.
Speaker 3 (09:37):
A great question. You know, it was not that long
ago that a tornado warning was issued for entire counties,
and then we just started to trim back a few
years ago so that a polygon is drawn around a tornado,
but even still that includes a lot of folks that
aren't necessarily under the risk of a tornado, so sometimes
(09:58):
people have the sirens go off.
Speaker 2 (10:00):
So in terms of where we're.
Speaker 3 (10:02):
Headed, there's been a lot of research done over the
last decade to create a brand new tornado warning system
called Threats in Motion.
Speaker 2 (10:12):
Very cool stuff.
Speaker 3 (10:14):
I've had the privilege to see how this might work
and to actually test out the technology as a broadcast meteorologist.
What it does is, instead of drawing a polygon necessarily
around a storm, it shows the storm and it plots
out a little almost spotlight ahead of the storm as
it's moving to show who's most likely to see a tornado,
(10:36):
and that little spotlight illuminates the path that the tornado
is most likely to go, So instead of having this
big polygon, you have this tiny, narrow spotlight. What's more,
it's probability based, so at the tail end of the spotlight,
it indicates like a two percent chance of seeing a
tornado in the next thirty minutes, but really close to
(10:57):
where the tornado actually is, that spot light illuminates like
a ninety percent chance. So the reason why I like
this and hopefully I'm explaining it okay, is that it
helps to take into the account that people take action
differently depending on the situation. So like a hospital, if
they're under a two percent chance of seeing a tornado
(11:18):
and that very tail edge of the spotlight start shining on,
like a hospital, they're going to start moving residents in.
Speaker 2 (11:25):
But if you're like.
Speaker 3 (11:26):
My dad who's on the back porch having a soda pop,
he's probably going to wait until like ninety percent chance where.
Speaker 2 (11:33):
He's like, I amn't again inside.
Speaker 1 (11:35):
Your dad and I are just alike, by the way,
we're the same guy, right.
Speaker 3 (11:40):
So Future of Tornado Warning is very cool because the
polygons are updated maybe every fifteen twenty minutes. These little
spotlights would be updated every two minutes, almost real time,
and you'd really be able to see the hazards that
are coming across portions of West Michigan without alerting so
many folks. I'm hopeful maybe in the next two three years.
(12:02):
It's still in the development research phase. I think it
was supposed to be launched this year, but of course
nothing is set in stone, so I'm hopeful that we'll
be able to use that new technology soon.
Speaker 4 (12:13):
Again. What is that new technology called.
Speaker 2 (12:16):
It's called threats in Motion.
Speaker 3 (12:17):
I'm sure they'll come up with like a much cooler,
easier way. But our tornado watch and warning system has
been around since the Palm Sunday outbreak, so all the
way back in the sixties. It's in need of revamping here,
and a lot of scientists are working hard to create
a system that once it's launched, it will stick and
(12:40):
it will just feel instinctual to everyone.
Speaker 1 (12:42):
It could also be Threats in Motion could also describe
a bunch of toddlers running for the ice cream truck
in the summertime as well.
Speaker 3 (12:50):
Too, very true, having a toddler, I can con tess
that that's definitely true.
Speaker 1 (12:55):
Yeah, that is probably. I'm not saying you should give
her that nickname. Let's talk about just wrap up on
those tornadoes. They were weak tornadoes, I guess we would say,
thankfully EF zero or EF one, which typically will cause
some tree in minor property damage but no significant destruction
like we saw in Portland and in Galered any reason
(13:19):
those were weaker tornadoes or it just varies depending on
the storm situation.
Speaker 2 (13:24):
It varies on the storm situation.
Speaker 3 (13:26):
When you have a fast moving line of like connected storms,
you're more often going to see weaker tornadoes, so at
most usually win speeds of like one ten maybe.
Speaker 2 (13:36):
But if you have.
Speaker 3 (13:37):
Standalone, isolated storms, the ones that aren't contaminated and can
just grow and grow, those are the ones that oftentimes
produce the really big tornadoes. So oftentimes meteorologically we call
those discrete storms because instead of linking up with others,
they stand alone and they can just produce quite a
(13:59):
bit the way of tornadic activity.
Speaker 1 (14:02):
It's good to know, and really it's not even worth
taking any chance, whether it's an EF zero or an
EF one. You want to take shelter and you want
to be well prepared for any kind of a tornado
event like that, staring teammate Chief Mediorologist Ellen Baka, as
we take a look, now we pivot from some of
the biggest weather stories of twenty twenty five. Okay, it's here,
(14:25):
the winter weather outlook. It was published several days ago,
several weeks ago at WOODTV and woodtv dot Com, and
we'll have the link in our podcast notes. But this,
I guess the headline for this winner is we are
looking at a week lon Nina to start the winner
and a lot of things we learn historically Ellen from
(14:46):
a week Nina.
Speaker 4 (14:47):
In fact, it's a lot of that.
Speaker 1 (14:49):
Points to December as being a key indicator for some
very cold weather and more often than not significant snowfall.
So I'll you take it from there. What do we
know about a week lin Nina so far? And again
we'll just hit on some of the high points of
your staring teammate Winter Weather outlook.
Speaker 3 (15:10):
Winter Weather I Look always a fun meteorological exercise the
entire team dives in, and when it comes to this winter,
we've noticed that not just are we going to have
a week lin Nina, it's only really going to be
around for the month of December and then we're likely
going to see it switch back to a neutral phase.
So we realized early on, okay, we need to separate
(15:33):
December out from the rest of the winter outlook and
see how the Weeklanina usually impacts just the month of
December in West Michigan.
Speaker 2 (15:42):
What we found was quite interesting.
Speaker 3 (15:45):
We looked back through the record books, we looked back
at snow totals and temperatures, and it's pretty clear that
in general, we see much colder and much snowier Decembers
when we have a week Lannina.
Speaker 2 (15:59):
Now, it's not a per fit.
Speaker 3 (16:00):
We had a couple of years in there, like nineteen
seventy one that throw wrench in things with like low snow,
so it's not.
Speaker 2 (16:08):
A perfect correlation.
Speaker 3 (16:10):
However, if we just average it out, ten out of
the eleven winters that we found that had a week
on Nina during December were much colder than average. They
came in about four degrees colder than usual, which is
usually substantially colder.
Speaker 2 (16:27):
I know you're thinking, like, oh, four doesn't sound like much.
Speaker 3 (16:30):
Well, when it comes to averages, four degrees below is
pretty hefty.
Speaker 4 (16:35):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (16:35):
In addition to that, oh go ahead.
Speaker 1 (16:38):
I was just going to say, and it can get
worse than that. I'm looking at one of the slides
you have in your winter weather outlook.
Speaker 4 (16:45):
Again.
Speaker 1 (16:45):
We'll post this whole article in our podcast notes The
second and third coldest Decembers with a la Nina effect
two thousand minus eleven point four percent degree difference nineteen
eighty three minus eleven point two degree difference. But like
you said, that four degree difference over a month, that's
(17:05):
a cold month.
Speaker 2 (17:07):
Yeah, that's a cold month.
Speaker 3 (17:08):
And especially considering December's already a cold month, when we
have that four degree below on average, it sets the
stage for good lake effect and system snow. And like
you're just mentioning, Phil, the second and third coldest decembers
on record were ones with weeklaninias and they were substantially colder.
(17:29):
So we are looking at this and what's interesting is
when you have a week lninia and when you also
have a secondary teleconnection that we look at called the
QBO and they're in alignment, it can create a better
chance for polar vortex.
Speaker 2 (17:46):
Hits in December.
Speaker 3 (17:48):
And what we're about to see here through December is
a good setup for cold are to come right on
down into West Michigan. So I think December is a
pretty slam dunk, as in it's going to be colder
than usual, it's likely going to be snowier than usual.
On average. La Nina Weakla Nina. December is produced around
(18:10):
thirty inches of snow.
Speaker 1 (18:11):
Wow, and I am seeing one of those Decembers, we
got fifty nine inches of snow.
Speaker 4 (18:19):
That's insane.
Speaker 2 (18:21):
Isn't that wild?
Speaker 4 (18:22):
That is just wild.
Speaker 1 (18:24):
I mean that's like almost eighty percent of the snowfall
for a winter season ellen in December alone.
Speaker 3 (18:32):
Yes, So if we look at the week non ninia Decembers,
the year two thousand gave us almost sixty inches of snow,
which is wild. But again we also have nineteen seventy
one where we only saw about four inches total for
the month of December.
Speaker 2 (18:46):
Now, again it's weighted.
Speaker 3 (18:48):
Heavily towards this being a colder and snowier December for us.
But I just always want to kind of take a
moment to fill in some of those finer details, because
when it comes to meteorology, you can look at past events,
but no two winters are ever the same. I always
say that when you're comparing two years, they're kind of
(19:11):
like sisters. They have some similarities, but they're definitely.
Speaker 2 (19:15):
Not the same.
Speaker 3 (19:16):
So that being said, we like to look at trends
and likelihood, but when it comes to seasonal forecasts, there's
no one hundred percent certainty still, I've been liking what
we're seeing this December. A lot of the long range
models continue to point towards cold, cold, cold, and snow,
(19:37):
so it looks like it should be a holly, jolly Christmas,
a nice white Christmas across West Michigan.
Speaker 4 (19:42):
I love it.
Speaker 1 (19:43):
By the way, you mentioned a term that I actually
did some research on, because it's in your storm Teammate
Winter Weather Outlook. Again, we'll put the link up in
our podcast notes for this episode, which are available on
the iHeartRadio app or wherever you listen to your podcast.
Just search West Michigan Weekend and you'll see Ellen's name
in the title teleconnections. Fascinated by this term because it
(20:05):
sounds like, you know, you're doing a phone date with someone,
and I was like, Okay, I want to know what
this is tele connections. I'm reading our significant links between
weather phenomena at widely separated locations on Earth. So a
weather pattern up in Alaska that could eventually impact the
(20:26):
weather here in the Upper Midwest. Is that kind of
the idea of teleconnections?
Speaker 2 (20:31):
Yes, yeah, you nailed it.
Speaker 3 (20:33):
What's so interesting about teleconnections is that they can happen
in different spots around the world, but they can all
work to change our storm track over West Michigan. So
things that are happening in Siberia have an impact on us.
The water temperatures and the Gulf of Alaska have an
(20:54):
impact on us. And then when it comes to La Nina,
that's water temperature difference is off the coast of South
America in the Eastern Pacific. So these spots on the
map that you'd be like, what does that have anything
to do with us in West Michigan. Well, it all
changes the weather patterns slightly, which eventually can steer our
(21:16):
storm track. So the ones that we feel impact West
Michigan the most are usually El Nino Lamina, which is
known as enso water temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska
that can have a huge impact on our storm track.
And then Siberian snowpack and how quickly it's stacking up
through time through the winter. And then once we see
(21:38):
all these different parameters, we have to look to see
how they're going to kind of play together over West
Michigan and.
Speaker 2 (21:45):
Who's going to win for a lack of a better word.
Speaker 3 (21:50):
So it's a big culmination of these huge global factors,
and then of course in West Michigan, we also have
Lake Michigan that we have to factor in as well.
Speaker 2 (22:00):
Absolutely when it comes to our winter forecast.
Speaker 1 (22:02):
Yes, that, of course lake affects snow machine and with
those colder temperatures, that certainly becomes a factor. By the way,
we're averaging in Grand Rapids typically seventy six to seventy
eight inches of snow per season. Is that pretty close?
Speaker 3 (22:18):
Yes, definitely, and usually we see higher amounts towards the
lake shore like Miskegan, although there have been some years
lately where the wind was just a little too fast
and from a slightly different direction through the winter and
it kind of robs Miskegan of a lot of snow.
Speaker 2 (22:33):
Grand Rapids ended up seeing more.
Speaker 3 (22:36):
So usually we see more snow along those lake belt
areas and then a little bit less once you get
closer to Lansing.
Speaker 1 (22:43):
But the word to the wise right now, Storing Team
Chief Meteorologist Ellen Baka, is be prepared for a cold December.
The first day of the month is tomorrow, and if
you were not ready with your snow blower, you might
want to really hurry that along because it is going
to definitely be a cold weather paneer for some time.
Speaker 4 (23:03):
Right, Yes, it.
Speaker 3 (23:04):
Looks like the cold does come in and it's going
to be staying so through the month of December.
Speaker 2 (23:10):
We typically see our high.
Speaker 3 (23:11):
Temperatures drop into the thirties, especially the low thirties, by
the end of the month, but right at the start
of the month here, we're going to be seeing cold
there just settle into the Great Lakes, and that's going
to help to keep us cold through the month. I'm
excited to see how the entire month pans out. I
love snow, especially when it arrives in December. I'm not
as much of a fan when it arrives in April.
Speaker 2 (23:34):
I don't think I'm alone in that.
Speaker 3 (23:35):
Yeah, No, And I think that all things considered, as
we were looking at the winter forecast, pretty good chance
that we're going to see some system snows through January February,
and a pretty good chance that we're going to see
winter wrap up a little bit earlier than usual, So
likely not seeing as much snow in April, likely not
seeing flurries in May like we've.
Speaker 2 (23:57):
Seen some previous years.
Speaker 3 (23:58):
But I think towards the tail end of March we'll
start to move things along terrific.
Speaker 1 (24:03):
I don't think anybody's complaining when they heard you say
winter wrapping up early. Always love to speak with you
and catch up with you on the weather, and I
always learned something as well. I learned a new word
tele connections, and I also learned a lot about tornadoes
and just regular storm activity, and of course about winter.
(24:23):
And we'll have a quiz later on the program on
al Aminia versus Hey.
Speaker 4 (24:30):
I appreciate it very much.
Speaker 1 (24:31):
I hope you had a great Thanksgiving and stay warm
in December.
Speaker 4 (24:35):
Okay, sounds good.
Speaker 2 (24:36):
Thanks for having me, Thil.
Speaker 4 (24:37):
Absolutely, it's
We are devoting this entire program to weather. This is
a long overdue update and check in with Storm teammate
Chief Mediorologist Ellen Baka. She's busy working as we record
this episode, and you're hearing us on the radio Thanksgiving
weekend Sunday. But just suffice it to say, Ellen is,
(00:22):
without a doubt, one of the hardest working people I
know in local media. And I've been in this market
for a while. I think most of our listeners know that.
It's great to have you back in the program.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Hi Ellen, Hi Phil, and right back at you.
Speaker 3 (00:36):
I feel like you are one of the hardest workers
I've seen as well. It is so great to talk
to you guys today about weather and this upcoming winter.
Speaker 1 (00:45):
Yeah, and stay tuned. This is a teaser for our
radio listening audience. We have some really important things that
are about to drop for December, and we're going to
do a deep dive on the winter weather Outlook, which
is available at woodtv dot com.
Speaker 4 (01:00):
And you might have.
Speaker 1 (01:01):
Seen Ellen and the Storm teammate folks talk about that
over several newscasts, but we're going to get into that.
Speaker 4 (01:08):
In just a moment.
Speaker 1 (01:09):
I wanted to speak with you Ellen, about some of
the kind of notable weather events in twenty twenty five.
One of those was a pretty significant ice storm in March,
and I remember this made a lot of news. It
made national news in terms of the impact one point
five inches of ice on trees, power lines, just about everything.
(01:30):
It was labeled as an unprecedented ice storm for Michigan.
It's certainly not entirely unheard of, but something we haven't
had to that level in a while, right.
Speaker 3 (01:40):
Right, And when it comes to ice storms, they usually
are very difficult to forecast, and sometimes the parameters have
to be just perfect in order for glaze ice to
stack up to the caliber that it did in northern Michigan.
So oftentimes when we see freezing rain, the accumulations are
limited to like a quarter of an inch. The fact
(02:02):
that we saw accumulations greater than an inch quite rare,
and we usually only see an event like that once
every fifteen years or so in Michigan. If it falls
in the spot that is a little bit smaller geographically,
then you don't hear about it as much. But because
it was such a wide area, had massive impacts for
a lot of spots.
Speaker 1 (02:22):
And it's hard to forecast because the changing conditions can
impact ice or just a little bit of ice or
just all rain.
Speaker 4 (02:31):
Correct.
Speaker 2 (02:32):
Oh, totally yes.
Speaker 3 (02:33):
So it kind of is like if you're baking a
really special cake and you get one ingredient slightly.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
Off, then the whole cake can be ruined.
Speaker 3 (02:42):
When it comes to ice storms, everything has to be
perfect in order for you to get that culmination of
really disastrous conditions. So if you have air temperatures at
the surface that are in the twenties, which is like
perfect for glazed ice to develop, but you have too
high of relative humidity than the ice wond form, or
if the surface temperatures are a little too warm than
(03:04):
the ice whont form, and that same sort of setup
as you go higher in the atmosphere is especially true.
If you get something that's even a degree off, it
can totally change your forecast.
Speaker 2 (03:16):
So anytime we have an ice.
Speaker 3 (03:17):
Storm in the forecast, I hold my breath because I
just know that these systems are really tricky, but if
they come together, they are high impact.
Speaker 2 (03:28):
Like we saw in northern Michigan.
Speaker 1 (03:30):
A significant amount of damage to electrical and fiber infrastructure,
which certainly taking people offline and out of business. And
it was a big disaster. In fact, declared as this
disaster area by Governor Whitmer. The Michigan National Guard was deployed.
So it's certainly notable that was at the end of
(03:51):
March this year, March twenty eight through thirtieth, to be precise.
We also had ellen a record active tornado season. As
I was looking through notes on significant weather events for
twenty twenty five, this surprised me. I know, we did
have more tornado warnings that seemed like I heard about
it more as I watched the news and followed weather stories.
(04:13):
A record high thirty three tornadoes, the most active tornado
years on record, thirty three of those, more than double
the annual average, which is only around thirteen. Were surprised
by the high level of tornado activity.
Speaker 3 (04:28):
You know, any year can come to play when it
comes to tornadoes, so I don't think I was necessarily surprised.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
However, we were ready.
Speaker 3 (04:37):
We knew that spring was going to be quite active,
and one of the reasons why we saw so many
tornadoes this year specifically, is because we had a couple
of storm setups where we had powerful lines that produced
a lot of small tornadoes at once. So these are
often called quasi linear tornadoes, where you have a whole segment,
(05:00):
a whole stormline segment with a lot of little spin areas,
and at any point in time, that whole line of
storms can put down a quick tornado. That's exactly what
we saw at the tail end of March, which boosted
our accounts, and then again we saw in May May fifteenth.
I felt like we were in Oklahoma, fast moving line.
(05:22):
We had a really hot day and those tornadoes were forming,
touching down and then dissipating very very rapidly. So we
were I felt like as a play by play with
their first sports coverage because you just could not take
your eyes off the radar for a second. You had
tornadoes touching down in several counties and that really upped
(05:43):
our total quite quickly, especially in West Michigan early on
in the season. So again, sometimes you can kind of
look at a season and you can be like, this
one is probably going to come to play. We didn't
have a lot of like like single very powerful tornadoes
so like we've had in previous years with Gaylard and
the Portage tornado.
Speaker 4 (06:04):
That's a great point.
Speaker 1 (06:05):
I just want to point out something that I think
a lot of your viewers appreciate during a tornado warning situation,
especially impacting locally in Kent, kint of the Greater Grand
Rapids area, or anywhere in West Michigan. Yeah, you can
get that alert on the phone, but to get to
the level of depth of coverage you and your meteorologists
(06:25):
provide during that it's unprecedented and it's unmatched, and you
as just do a fantastic job. It is, like you said,
it's like calling a sporting event, but a very serious
and very high impact event because there's a lot of movement,
a lot of unpredictability. That radar technology has really made
(06:46):
that job easier, but it's still not perfect.
Speaker 4 (06:49):
It's not a perfect science yet, is it.
Speaker 2 (06:51):
No, it's not.
Speaker 3 (06:52):
And you're really juggling a lot of things at once.
You're getting a lot of data inbounds, things are changing
second by second, and sometimes when you look at these
our images they're a little fuzzy or they're not textbook right,
especially in Michigan. So you have to use your experience,
your judgment, and you also have to use a lot
of different tools to verify what you're seeing. Because the
(07:13):
last thing anyone wants is for you to like lose
your head on air and start, you know, saying everyone's
in danger, when really everyone needs to maybe be wise.
But there are a few pinpoint areas that are especially
at risk.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
I love my team.
Speaker 3 (07:29):
We do a lot of prep work so that we're
ready when severe weather situations strike, so that we can
be clear, we can get on top of it and
get the word out because again in Michigan, some of
these tornadoes can touch down quite quickly, you know, Phil,
I just have to laugh because one of the things
that we've really tried to do is not just call
(07:50):
out streets, but landmarks. And so in my brain, I'm
like looking, I'm looking, I'm looking, you know. And we
had one in May with that fast moving line, a
tornado that up right near Martin, and I was like, okay,
you know, landmarks. And I immediately looked at landmarks and
I said.
Speaker 2 (08:07):
Martin's Cemetery take cover.
Speaker 3 (08:09):
And then the moment I said it, I was like,
I mean, everybody around Martin Cemetery.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
But the truth is that's funny.
Speaker 3 (08:17):
I doubt anyone and is hanging out at the cemetery
during a thunderstorm. But all that to say We're always
trying to think of how can we be the most clear,
how can we call out things to people so that
if they are anxious at home, they can quickly take
action feel safe, be safe, and street names landmarks usually
(08:40):
are good, good tools for us to do that.
Speaker 1 (08:43):
Yeah, that's really important and I really appreciate it. I
know a lot of your storm teammate viewers appreciate it.
Storm teammate chief media relogist Ellen Baka with us on
this entire edition of West Michigan Weekend from iHeartRadio.
Speaker 4 (08:57):
It's worth noting.
Speaker 1 (08:59):
And before I knowe those thirty three tornadoes, I'm going
to add that point in just a moment. I wanted
to ask you a question I know you've had. I'm
sure a lot of people ask you about are we
going to get to the level with Kent County Emergency
Management and other counties across Michigan across the country where
we'll have more geographic specific warnings because a warning that
(09:23):
happens in southwest Kent County certainly is not impactful for
people living in Cedar Springs of the northeastern portion of
the county, or maybe even the far east portion of
the county. Where are we on that type of technology, Ellen, Yeah, that's.
Speaker 3 (09:37):
A great question. You know, it was not that long
ago that a tornado warning was issued for entire counties,
and then we just started to trim back a few
years ago so that a polygon is drawn around a tornado,
but even still that includes a lot of folks that
aren't necessarily under the risk of a tornado, so sometimes
(09:58):
people have the sirens go off.
Speaker 2 (10:00):
So in terms of where we're.
Speaker 3 (10:02):
Headed, there's been a lot of research done over the
last decade to create a brand new tornado warning system
called Threats in Motion.
Speaker 2 (10:12):
Very cool stuff.
Speaker 3 (10:14):
I've had the privilege to see how this might work
and to actually test out the technology as a broadcast meteorologist.
What it does is, instead of drawing a polygon necessarily
around a storm, it shows the storm and it plots
out a little almost spotlight ahead of the storm as
it's moving to show who's most likely to see a tornado,
(10:36):
and that little spotlight illuminates the path that the tornado
is most likely to go, So instead of having this
big polygon, you have this tiny, narrow spotlight. What's more,
it's probability based, so at the tail end of the spotlight,
it indicates like a two percent chance of seeing a
tornado in the next thirty minutes, but really close to
(10:57):
where the tornado actually is, that spot light illuminates like
a ninety percent chance. So the reason why I like
this and hopefully I'm explaining it okay, is that it
helps to take into the account that people take action
differently depending on the situation. So like a hospital, if
they're under a two percent chance of seeing a tornado
(11:18):
and that very tail edge of the spotlight start shining on,
like a hospital, they're going to start moving residents in.
Speaker 2 (11:25):
But if you're like.
Speaker 3 (11:26):
My dad who's on the back porch having a soda pop,
he's probably going to wait until like ninety percent chance where.
Speaker 2 (11:33):
He's like, I amn't again inside.
Speaker 1 (11:35):
Your dad and I are just alike, by the way,
we're the same guy, right.
Speaker 3 (11:40):
So Future of Tornado Warning is very cool because the
polygons are updated maybe every fifteen twenty minutes. These little
spotlights would be updated every two minutes, almost real time,
and you'd really be able to see the hazards that
are coming across portions of West Michigan without alerting so
many folks. I'm hopeful maybe in the next two three years.
(12:02):
It's still in the development research phase. I think it
was supposed to be launched this year, but of course
nothing is set in stone, so I'm hopeful that we'll
be able to use that new technology soon.
Speaker 4 (12:13):
Again. What is that new technology called.
Speaker 2 (12:16):
It's called threats in Motion.
Speaker 3 (12:17):
I'm sure they'll come up with like a much cooler,
easier way. But our tornado watch and warning system has
been around since the Palm Sunday outbreak, so all the
way back in the sixties. It's in need of revamping here,
and a lot of scientists are working hard to create
a system that once it's launched, it will stick and
(12:40):
it will just feel instinctual to everyone.
Speaker 1 (12:42):
It could also be Threats in Motion could also describe
a bunch of toddlers running for the ice cream truck
in the summertime as well.
Speaker 3 (12:50):
Too, very true, having a toddler, I can con tess
that that's definitely true.
Speaker 1 (12:55):
Yeah, that is probably. I'm not saying you should give
her that nickname. Let's talk about just wrap up on
those tornadoes. They were weak tornadoes, I guess we would say,
thankfully EF zero or EF one, which typically will cause
some tree in minor property damage but no significant destruction
like we saw in Portland and in Galered any reason
(13:19):
those were weaker tornadoes or it just varies depending on
the storm situation.
Speaker 2 (13:24):
It varies on the storm situation.
Speaker 3 (13:26):
When you have a fast moving line of like connected storms,
you're more often going to see weaker tornadoes, so at
most usually win speeds of like one ten maybe.
Speaker 2 (13:36):
But if you have.
Speaker 3 (13:37):
Standalone, isolated storms, the ones that aren't contaminated and can
just grow and grow, those are the ones that oftentimes
produce the really big tornadoes. So oftentimes meteorologically we call
those discrete storms because instead of linking up with others,
they stand alone and they can just produce quite a
(13:59):
bit the way of tornadic activity.
Speaker 1 (14:02):
It's good to know, and really it's not even worth
taking any chance, whether it's an EF zero or an
EF one. You want to take shelter and you want
to be well prepared for any kind of a tornado
event like that, staring teammate Chief Mediorologist Ellen Baka, as
we take a look, now we pivot from some of
the biggest weather stories of twenty twenty five. Okay, it's here,
(14:25):
the winter weather outlook. It was published several days ago,
several weeks ago at WOODTV and woodtv dot Com, and
we'll have the link in our podcast notes. But this,
I guess the headline for this winner is we are
looking at a week lon Nina to start the winner
and a lot of things we learn historically Ellen from
(14:46):
a week Nina.
Speaker 4 (14:47):
In fact, it's a lot of that.
Speaker 1 (14:49):
Points to December as being a key indicator for some
very cold weather and more often than not significant snowfall.
So I'll you take it from there. What do we
know about a week lin Nina so far? And again
we'll just hit on some of the high points of
your staring teammate Winter Weather outlook.
Speaker 3 (15:10):
Winter Weather I Look always a fun meteorological exercise the
entire team dives in, and when it comes to this winter,
we've noticed that not just are we going to have
a week lin Nina, it's only really going to be
around for the month of December and then we're likely
going to see it switch back to a neutral phase.
So we realized early on, okay, we need to separate
(15:33):
December out from the rest of the winter outlook and
see how the Weeklanina usually impacts just the month of
December in West Michigan.
Speaker 2 (15:42):
What we found was quite interesting.
Speaker 3 (15:45):
We looked back through the record books, we looked back
at snow totals and temperatures, and it's pretty clear that
in general, we see much colder and much snowier Decembers
when we have a week Lannina.
Speaker 2 (15:59):
Now, it's not a per fit.
Speaker 3 (16:00):
We had a couple of years in there, like nineteen
seventy one that throw wrench in things with like low snow,
so it's not.
Speaker 2 (16:08):
A perfect correlation.
Speaker 3 (16:10):
However, if we just average it out, ten out of
the eleven winters that we found that had a week
on Nina during December were much colder than average. They
came in about four degrees colder than usual, which is
usually substantially colder.
Speaker 2 (16:27):
I know you're thinking, like, oh, four doesn't sound like much.
Speaker 3 (16:30):
Well, when it comes to averages, four degrees below is
pretty hefty.
Speaker 4 (16:35):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (16:35):
In addition to that, oh go ahead.
Speaker 1 (16:38):
I was just going to say, and it can get
worse than that. I'm looking at one of the slides
you have in your winter weather outlook.
Speaker 4 (16:45):
Again.
Speaker 1 (16:45):
We'll post this whole article in our podcast notes The
second and third coldest Decembers with a la Nina effect
two thousand minus eleven point four percent degree difference nineteen
eighty three minus eleven point two degree difference. But like
you said, that four degree difference over a month, that's
(17:05):
a cold month.
Speaker 2 (17:07):
Yeah, that's a cold month.
Speaker 3 (17:08):
And especially considering December's already a cold month, when we
have that four degree below on average, it sets the
stage for good lake effect and system snow. And like
you're just mentioning, Phil, the second and third coldest decembers
on record were ones with weeklaninias and they were substantially colder.
(17:29):
So we are looking at this and what's interesting is
when you have a week lninia and when you also
have a secondary teleconnection that we look at called the
QBO and they're in alignment, it can create a better
chance for polar vortex.
Speaker 2 (17:46):
Hits in December.
Speaker 3 (17:48):
And what we're about to see here through December is
a good setup for cold are to come right on
down into West Michigan. So I think December is a
pretty slam dunk, as in it's going to be colder
than usual, it's likely going to be snowier than usual.
On average. La Nina Weakla Nina. December is produced around
(18:10):
thirty inches of snow.
Speaker 1 (18:11):
Wow, and I am seeing one of those Decembers, we
got fifty nine inches of snow.
Speaker 4 (18:19):
That's insane.
Speaker 2 (18:21):
Isn't that wild?
Speaker 4 (18:22):
That is just wild.
Speaker 1 (18:24):
I mean that's like almost eighty percent of the snowfall
for a winter season ellen in December alone.
Speaker 3 (18:32):
Yes, So if we look at the week non ninia Decembers,
the year two thousand gave us almost sixty inches of snow,
which is wild. But again we also have nineteen seventy
one where we only saw about four inches total for
the month of December.
Speaker 2 (18:46):
Now, again it's weighted.
Speaker 3 (18:48):
Heavily towards this being a colder and snowier December for us.
But I just always want to kind of take a
moment to fill in some of those finer details, because
when it comes to meteorology, you can look at past events,
but no two winters are ever the same. I always
say that when you're comparing two years, they're kind of
(19:11):
like sisters. They have some similarities, but they're definitely.
Speaker 2 (19:15):
Not the same.
Speaker 3 (19:16):
So that being said, we like to look at trends
and likelihood, but when it comes to seasonal forecasts, there's
no one hundred percent certainty still, I've been liking what
we're seeing this December. A lot of the long range
models continue to point towards cold, cold, cold, and snow,
(19:37):
so it looks like it should be a holly, jolly Christmas,
a nice white Christmas across West Michigan.
Speaker 4 (19:42):
I love it.
Speaker 1 (19:43):
By the way, you mentioned a term that I actually
did some research on, because it's in your storm Teammate
Winter Weather Outlook. Again, we'll put the link up in
our podcast notes for this episode, which are available on
the iHeartRadio app or wherever you listen to your podcast.
Just search West Michigan Weekend and you'll see Ellen's name
in the title teleconnections. Fascinated by this term because it
(20:05):
sounds like, you know, you're doing a phone date with someone,
and I was like, Okay, I want to know what
this is tele connections. I'm reading our significant links between
weather phenomena at widely separated locations on Earth. So a
weather pattern up in Alaska that could eventually impact the
(20:26):
weather here in the Upper Midwest. Is that kind of
the idea of teleconnections?
Speaker 2 (20:31):
Yes, yeah, you nailed it.
Speaker 3 (20:33):
What's so interesting about teleconnections is that they can happen
in different spots around the world, but they can all
work to change our storm track over West Michigan. So
things that are happening in Siberia have an impact on us.
The water temperatures and the Gulf of Alaska have an
(20:54):
impact on us. And then when it comes to La Nina,
that's water temperature difference is off the coast of South
America in the Eastern Pacific. So these spots on the
map that you'd be like, what does that have anything
to do with us in West Michigan. Well, it all
changes the weather patterns slightly, which eventually can steer our
(21:16):
storm track. So the ones that we feel impact West
Michigan the most are usually El Nino Lamina, which is
known as enso water temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska
that can have a huge impact on our storm track.
And then Siberian snowpack and how quickly it's stacking up
through time through the winter. And then once we see
(21:38):
all these different parameters, we have to look to see
how they're going to kind of play together over West
Michigan and.
Speaker 2 (21:45):
Who's going to win for a lack of a better word.
Speaker 3 (21:50):
So it's a big culmination of these huge global factors,
and then of course in West Michigan, we also have
Lake Michigan that we have to factor in as well.
Speaker 2 (22:00):
Absolutely when it comes to our winter forecast.
Speaker 1 (22:02):
Yes, that, of course lake affects snow machine and with
those colder temperatures, that certainly becomes a factor. By the way,
we're averaging in Grand Rapids typically seventy six to seventy
eight inches of snow per season. Is that pretty close?
Speaker 3 (22:18):
Yes, definitely, and usually we see higher amounts towards the
lake shore like Miskegan, although there have been some years
lately where the wind was just a little too fast
and from a slightly different direction through the winter and
it kind of robs Miskegan of a lot of snow.
Speaker 2 (22:33):
Grand Rapids ended up seeing more.
Speaker 3 (22:36):
So usually we see more snow along those lake belt
areas and then a little bit less once you get
closer to Lansing.
Speaker 1 (22:43):
But the word to the wise right now, Storing Team
Chief Meteorologist Ellen Baka, is be prepared for a cold December.
The first day of the month is tomorrow, and if
you were not ready with your snow blower, you might
want to really hurry that along because it is going
to definitely be a cold weather paneer for some time.
Speaker 4 (23:03):
Right, Yes, it.
Speaker 3 (23:04):
Looks like the cold does come in and it's going
to be staying so through the month of December.
Speaker 2 (23:10):
We typically see our high.
Speaker 3 (23:11):
Temperatures drop into the thirties, especially the low thirties, by
the end of the month, but right at the start
of the month here, we're going to be seeing cold
there just settle into the Great Lakes, and that's going
to help to keep us cold through the month. I'm
excited to see how the entire month pans out. I
love snow, especially when it arrives in December. I'm not
as much of a fan when it arrives in April.
Speaker 2 (23:34):
I don't think I'm alone in that.
Speaker 3 (23:35):
Yeah, No, And I think that all things considered, as
we were looking at the winter forecast, pretty good chance
that we're going to see some system snows through January February,
and a pretty good chance that we're going to see
winter wrap up a little bit earlier than usual, So
likely not seeing as much snow in April, likely not
seeing flurries in May like we've.
Speaker 2 (23:57):
Seen some previous years.
Speaker 3 (23:58):
But I think towards the tail end of March we'll
start to move things along terrific.
Speaker 1 (24:03):
I don't think anybody's complaining when they heard you say
winter wrapping up early. Always love to speak with you
and catch up with you on the weather, and I
always learned something as well. I learned a new word
tele connections, and I also learned a lot about tornadoes
and just regular storm activity, and of course about winter.
(24:23):
And we'll have a quiz later on the program on
al Aminia versus Hey.
Speaker 4 (24:30):
I appreciate it very much.
Speaker 1 (24:31):
I hope you had a great Thanksgiving and stay warm
in December.
Speaker 4 (24:35):
Okay, sounds good.
Speaker 2 (24:36):
Thanks for having me, Thil.
Speaker 4 (24:37):
Absolutely, it's
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
Are You A Charlotte?
In 1997, actress Kristin Davis’ life was forever changed when she took on the role of Charlotte York in Sex and the City. As we watched Carrie, Samantha, Miranda and Charlotte navigate relationships in NYC, the show helped push once unacceptable conversation topics out of the shadows and altered the narrative around women and sex. We all saw ourselves in them as they searched for fulfillment in life, sex and friendships. Now, Kristin Davis wants to connect with you, the fans, and share untold stories and all the behind the scenes. Together, with Kristin and special guests, what will begin with Sex and the City will evolve into talks about themes that are still so relevant today. "Are you a Charlotte?" is much more than just rewatching this beloved show, it brings the past and the present together as we talk with heart, humor and of course some optimism.