Be it Resolved, the Ukraine War has accelerated the rollback of globalization

The end of the Cold War marked the beginning of a new, interdependent world. Growing global consensus around trade rules, technology transfers, mass migration and investment ushered in a wave of globalization that was championed as the most effective means of bringing prosperity and stability to big and small countries. Yet lately, a slew of anti-globalization movements have led to a marked decrease in world trade. Some economists predict that the war between Russia and Ukraine will only accelerate the decline of globalization. With supply chains already fractured due to the pandemic and climate change, the war will remind many developed nations that they cannot rely on foreign countries for badly needed resources like wheat or natural gas. China, one of the world’s biggest exporters of goods, will likewise see the economic isolation of Russia as a reason to become more independent and protect itself from being vulnerable to similar economic sanctions in the future. Others take a more optimistic view about the future of globalization; with all the comparisons to the 1970’s and sustained inflation, many forget that it was a decade that paved the way for a sustained expansion of trade and international migration. And the best way to deal with inflation, these experts argue, is to open economies and increase the flow of goods. The future will see more, not less, economic interdependence, cooperation, and globalization. 

 

Arguing for the motion is Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics

Arguing against the motion is Harold James, economic historian and Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University

QUOTES:

ADAM POSEN

“We are moving to a world where division is going to be more evident, and where values in national security are going to determine more of our economic decisions”

 

HAROLD JAMES

“The globalization that's going to follow  in the 21st century is about the globalization of services and the use of information technology. It's a very exciting prospect.”

 

Sources: 

ABC, BBC, PBS

 

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