April 30, 2025 • 25 mins
Join Jim and Greg for Thursday’s 3 Martini Lunch as they react to a new climate report that undercuts years of doomsday predictions, economic numbers that show a slight contraction in the first quarter, and the Democratic National Committee using identity politics in an attempt to oust David Hogg from party leadership.
First, they spotlight a new study from the University of Exeter revealing that polar ice levels have remained largely stable over the past 20 years. The report supports research suggesting climate patterns are cyclical, with polar ice naturally growing and receding. Jim and Greg contrast these findings with decades of dire climate forecasts from Al Gore and others.
Next, they break down the U.S. GDP decline of 0.3 percent in the first quarter. They explain how the drop was mainly caused by a surge in imports ahead of President Trump's tariffs. Without the rush of incoming goods, GDP likely would have risen more than three percent. What does this say about the current state of the U.S. economy and where it is headed?
Finally, they have a lot of fun watching the Democratic National Committee turn to identity politics in it's latest, obvious attempt to run David Hogg out of its leadership. There is now a challenge to Hogg's election back in February. One of the candidates he defeated says the election process was unfair to women of color. Jim and Greg have some fun imagining what the DNC will look like if this woke approach is followed to its natural conclusion.
Please visit our great sponsors:
It’s free, online, and easy to start—no strings attached. Enroll in Understanding Capitalism with Hillsdale College. Visit https://Hillsdale.edu/Martini
This spring, get up to 50% off select plants at Fast Growing Trees with code MARTINI, plus an extra 15% off at checkout on your first purchase! Visit https://fastgrowingtrees.com/Martini
If I needed to find a doctor quickly, Zocdoc is what I’d use. Stop putting off those doctor’s appointments and head to https://zocdoc.com/3ML to find and instantly book a top-rated doctor today.
First, they spotlight a new study from the University of Exeter revealing that polar ice levels have remained largely stable over the past 20 years. The report supports research suggesting climate patterns are cyclical, with polar ice naturally growing and receding. Jim and Greg contrast these findings with decades of dire climate forecasts from Al Gore and others.
Next, they break down the U.S. GDP decline of 0.3 percent in the first quarter. They explain how the drop was mainly caused by a surge in imports ahead of President Trump's tariffs. Without the rush of incoming goods, GDP likely would have risen more than three percent. What does this say about the current state of the U.S. economy and where it is headed?
Finally, they have a lot of fun watching the Democratic National Committee turn to identity politics in it's latest, obvious attempt to run David Hogg out of its leadership. There is now a challenge to Hogg's election back in February. One of the candidates he defeated says the election process was unfair to women of color. Jim and Greg have some fun imagining what the DNC will look like if this woke approach is followed to its natural conclusion.
Please visit our great sponsors:
It’s free, online, and easy to start—no strings attached. Enroll in Understanding Capitalism with Hillsdale College. Visit https://Hillsdale.edu/Martini
This spring, get up to 50% off select plants at Fast Growing Trees with code MARTINI, plus an extra 15% off at checkout on your first purchase! Visit https://fastgrowingtrees.com/Martini
If I needed to find a doctor quickly, Zocdoc is what I’d use. Stop putting off those doctor’s appointments and head to https://zocdoc.com/3ML to find and instantly book a top-rated doctor today.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Welcome to the Three Martini Lunch. Grab a stool next
to Greg Corumbus of Radio America and Jim Garritty of
National Review.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Free Martini's coming up. Hey, really, glad you're with us
for the Wednesday edition of the Three Martini Lunch. A
lot to talk about today. We'll obviously be talking about
the new numbers on the economy slight contraction in the
first quarter of twenty twenty five. We'll get the official
numbers in about a month, but this is not being
well received on Wall Street, and we'll talk about all that.
(00:32):
Will also be taking a look at the latest developments
at the DNC. They might be finally finding a way
to get rid of David Hogg in the most democratic
left wing way possible. But we also have some good news, Jim,
which will also make a lot of lefties very very
upset on the climate front because it'll probably mean less
chances for them to make a lot of money off
of the climate change issue. But what stands out to you.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
I think I'm looking forward to our crazy Martini because
in a very strange way, it's predictable, but how it's
shook out is not. And I'll just leave that foreshadowing
for there.
Speaker 2 (01:04):
Well, we're gonna be talking about the economy in just
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that's a dirty word. Socialism is what they preach. Capitalism
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(01:24):
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(02:11):
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we'll get to the economy in just a second, but
(02:33):
first we have to take a look at the state
of our planet. Hat tip to hot Air, which got
this story ultimately from the Daily Skeptic, which reports that
dramatic confirmation that the sea ice in the Arctic has
been stable Jim for nearly two decades has contained in
a recently published science paper from a team led by
doctor Mark England from the University of Exeter. The finding
(02:56):
is of course obvious to anyone who studies the data,
but it will inconvenience and it's the activist cranks who
continue to promote supposed reductions in Arctics sea ice as
an important sign of their imaginary tipping points and their
fake climate crisis. Obviously some editorial lesson going on here
from the Daily Skeptic, but the facts of the facts,
despite the data showing the ice has been stable over
(03:18):
every month in the year since two thousand and seven.
Other people have been promising that the Arctic will be
ice free. Back in the late two thousands, Algorre said
would be ice free by twenty fourteen. Now, the famed
David Attenborough just a couple of years ago said the
region could be ice free in the summer by twenty
thirty five. That has never happened. What the data also shows, Jim,
(03:39):
and I know this will shock you, and I know
it will shock people with open minds. It turns out
the climate is cyclical, so there are times when the
ice is less, there are times when the ice is more.
And just because there are times when the ice is
slightly reducing doesn't mean the planet's about to burst into flames.
So having some rational thought on this is definitely a
good thing.
Speaker 1 (04:00):
Yeah, I mean, you've always seen this self destructive tension
in the greens and in the environmental movement that this
idea that like in order to get people to sit
up and tay pay attention to this, if you talk
about a problem that's going to be fifty years from now,
one hundred years and now one hundred fifty years, people
aren't that worried about it. I think was Dennis Miller,
who once did a routine of course, I care about
my kids, and I care about my grandkids. Great grandkids
(04:22):
not so much great great grandkids. I'm never going to
see them, so who cares. I don't think we should
necessarily have that attitude. But there's generally a sense that
the further off of problem is the more it is
out in the distance. So there's this need to front
load the catastrophic results of what's allegedly going on. My
favorite example of this and I went back and I
found Reuters did a fact check and said it was
not true that al Gore had predicted that all the
(04:44):
polarized caps would melt by twenty thirteen back in two
thousand and nine. Well, here's how it went down. He's
at the Copenhagen Climate change Summit. No word on how
he got there, but I'm going to bet he didn't
row there. Said that the latest research back then in
two thousand and nine was that the Arctic could be
completely ice free in five years. For those doing the math,
that means twenty fourteen. And they have a quote, these
(05:07):
figures are I can't do Al Gore as well as
you do Greg. But I'll just picture Al Gore saying this.
These figures are fresh. Some of the models suggest to
doctor Maslowski that there is a seventy five percent chance
that the entire North Polar ice cap during the summer
months could be completely ice free within five to seven years. Now,
(05:27):
he's got some wheel room there, some of the models
suggest could be.
Speaker 2 (05:32):
But we all know what that's antically.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
It's saying, hey, look at this five years or five
years away. We got to this. Now. The funny thing is,
at the time they went to this Dr Mutlowski, who
basically was like, I have no idea how this figure
was arrived at. I would never try to estimate likelihood
at anything as exact as this, So they went back
to Gore's office. Gore's office later said the seventy five
percent figure was one used by doctor Muslowski as a
(05:53):
ballpark figure several years ago in a conversation with mister Gore. Well,
if you're gonna go out and you're gonna speak in
a major com for it's you're gonna say something, as
you know, apocalyptically dooms. You probably want to be on
more solid ground. I guess you could say the ground
behind beneath him melted, but undneath his feet, he just
kind of fell through the ice. You could say, much
like all the penguins are supposedly gonna do for this. Look,
(06:15):
this is good news. This is not really shocking news.
And I think the green movement has actually hurt. But
because think about it, people don't like pollution. People don't
like to see, you know, natural wildlands spoiled. People like
to you know, get worried when they see strip malls
replacing where there used to be meadows and parks and forests.
They have an argument I think a lot of people
in the right would listen to. But when you say
(06:37):
we're gonna look like Mad Max in six months, if
you don't do exactly what I say, people.
Speaker 2 (06:41):
Tend to tune it out. Now, that's a very good point.
And it's always ten years. You ever noticed that we're
always ten years away. We have just enough time to
give away our freedoms and give the government more power,
take more of our money to throw at this problem,
to hopefully slow by a tiny fraction of a degree
the warming over the next several decades. It's never well,
(07:03):
we've missed our deadline. There's no chance. There's always a
chance if you just buy into their political agenda. But
their political agenda is always the same. We saw it
with the so called Inflation Reduction Act. It's a bunch
more money being thrown at green causes. Does it actually
do any good? Doesn't necessarily seem so. There's a lot
of people Andy McCarthy and I were talking about this
(07:24):
while you were gone a couple of weeks ago, where
just electric cars and the batteries. What happens to them
once they're done. The mining that's necessary to bring these
essential minerals to use to create these batteries, the weight
of the cars requiring more road construction, and on and
on and on a coast. So the green movement isn't
even actually green is the bottom line here in a
(07:45):
lot of different ways. But the hysteria getting kicked in
the gut here with this report, I think is a
good thing. Won't stop them, but I think it's a
good thing overall.
Speaker 1 (07:55):
Greg, we're always just twenty freedman units away from disaster.
Blast from the past on that reference.
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(09:21):
are on the final day of April, and this is
around the time of the year where we get the
preliminary number for what happened in the economy over the
first quarter, meaning January through March. And as you have
foreshadowed in your writings and other people have suggested as well,
this was not going to be a great number. It
is not a great number. Gross domestic product fell at
a zero point three annualized pace, according to a Commerce
(09:44):
Department report Wednesday, adjusted for seasonal factors and inflation. Economists
surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a gain
of zero point four percent after GDP rose by two
point four percent in the fourth quarter of last year. However,
over the past day or so, some Wall Street economists
change their outlook to negative growth, largely because of an
unexpected rise in imports as companies and consumers sought to
(10:06):
get ahead of the Trump tariffs implemented in early April. Indeed,
CNBC reports imports soared forty one point three percent for
the quarter, driven by a fifty point nine percent increase
in goods imports. Subtract from the GDP and how it's calculated,
so the contraction and growth may not be viewed as
negatively given the potential for the trend to reverse in
(10:27):
subsequent quarters. Imports took more than five percentage points out
the headline reading exports rose one point eight percent, So Jim,
that suggests that the economy overall was doing quite well,
and that as a result of people trying to flood
our market with imports before the tariffs kick in, that
is bringing this number down. Without it, it probably would
(10:48):
have been north of three percent for the first quarter.
So President Trump not surprisingly out with the statement saying
this is Biden's stock market, a reaction to the fact
that the Wall Street does not like today's news. This
is Biden's stock market, not Trump's. I didn't take over
until January twentieth. Tariffs will soon start kicking in, and
companies are starting to move into the USA in record numbers.
(11:08):
Our country will boom, but we have to get rid
of the Biden quote unquote overhang. This will take a while.
Has nothing to do with tariffs. He says in all
caps only that he left us with bad numbers. But
when the boom begins, it will be like no other.
Be patient, he says in all caps plus three exclamation points.
So jim a lot to chew on here. What are
(11:28):
you chewing on? Most well?
Speaker 1 (11:30):
I noticed that back when the stock market was booming,
right after he took office, Trump jumped out to truth
Social and said, this is the Trump stock market. So
it's what it goes up is his. When it goes down,
it's Biden's. I suppose you could find a silver lining
to this last couple of weeks. You know, as soon
as we've heard that economic rattle in the engine and
the market started crashing. I take a look at the
Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank branch puts up with they call
(11:52):
GDP now, which basically, as I take the data as
it comes in, plug it into the worldlitzer the algorithm,
the formula, and try to reject what the gross domestic
product is going to be. Sometimes they miss, and so
they often give a range. They point out what other
ones are doing. But I think as of yesterday they
were expecting a loss of negative two point seven percent,
which would have been really bad by that standard. Only
(12:13):
going down three tenths of a percentage point is not
that bad, and We always to point out that the
first discovers beginning of January to end of March, so
the first twenty days technically the Biden administration. I don't
think that gets Trump off the hook too much for this.
I think a big chunk of this is both the
anticipation of the tariffs and I think the consequence of
the tariffs, and yes greater so so I think the
(12:34):
imports going up in the first couple months are probably
a sign that, like everybody wanted to get them in
before the tariffs did. There was a report that, like
you know, Apple was bringing in planeloads of iPhones as
fast as it could before the tariffs went need to effect.
So that's going to skew the numbers a little bit.
But I also think you look at not just the
problem of the stock markets, you look at the consequences
(12:55):
for global shipping, global imports, global exports. I wrote about
this in the Washington Post. The flow of cargo into
the port of Los Angeles is down dramatically. They expect
it's going to go down further. Exports are down. When
this happens, this means there's less work for the truckers.
The truckers apparently were saying that last week was comparable
to like Christmas Day or Thanksgiving Day for the amount
of traffic that was going out of Los Angeles. Look,
(13:17):
the supply chain is getting seriously disrupted by this. Now
we remember disruptions to supply chains back and coming out
of COVID twenty two. That was not fun for anybody.
And I don't know whether we'll necessarily see empty shelves
on stores, but when you have fewer shipments going through
the pipeline, it gets bad. And by the way, it's
a hitting the West coast ports now. The expectation is
(13:38):
you'll see similar numbers in the Gulf coast ports like
Houston and the East coast ports like New York and
Savannah in the next ten days or so. This is
all a bad economic news, and so I'm not surprised
that went down three tens per percentage point. It wouldn't
surprise me if the second quarter had some bad numbers
two greg As you know, traditionally the definition of a
recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth less.
(14:00):
Joe Biden is president, and then he gets right because
it happened in twenty twenty two and everything. Well, it's
not really a recession. It's only a recession if it
comes from the French region of recessia. Otherwise it's just
a sparkling economic downturn.
Speaker 2 (14:13):
Yeah, how many lefty economists set their reputations on fire
with that one, trying to do damage control for Joe
Biden when that happened. It's just incredible. But yes, obviously
the numbers not where we want it to be. Some
people now think the fact that the tariffs to some
extent are kicking in here, at least the ten percent
part of the tariffs and the bigger ones on China
that imports won't be as much of a drag on
(14:34):
GDP in the second quarter, so maybe that'll help things
a little bit. My question though, is that you know,
the tariffs kicked in on April second, not first quarter.
The market reaction to that was second quarter, So is
potentially some of what the Atlanta Fed analyzing there more
geared for second quarter analysis or is that all baked
into their Q one analysis.
Speaker 1 (14:56):
That's a good question, and I think because Trump had
talked about this well, he did an interview with ABC
News in which they said, you know, were the American
people prepared for this, and Trump said, I ran on this,
and they did. I think there was a lot of
people who thought the tariffs of first of second term
Trump would be kind of like the ones he did
on China in the first term, you know, less than ideal,
but more specific to particular industries, steal at aluminum and
(15:17):
things like that, and that you know, if you're a
free trader, they'd be seriously suboptimal. But the sort of
thing the country could muddle through. These are different that
we saw the giant Liberation day, the giant unveiling of
all the different kinds and the different levels, and a
lot of those were taken back to ten percent, but
that's still higher than they were before, and in the
case of China, there's still quite high. Trump said they
(15:40):
might be coming down. I also think by the way
the rapid changes we have had five levels of tariffs
in Trump's first one hundred days, I think the sheer constant,
you know, instability is a factor in lack of economic confidence,
because people simply don't know what it's going to cost
to buy something from China, and because of the retaliatory tariffs,
they don't know how much it's going to cost what
they sell it in China or in a bunch of
(16:02):
these other countries.
Speaker 2 (16:03):
You know, the patient's factor. We've talked about it before.
At what point, prior to the next election do things
need to be clearly moving in the right direction for
the American people to believe that that, yes, we're on
the right track. Those who would look at Reagan and
his tax cuts would say, you know, the eighty two
midterms didn't go well because we hadn't seen the results yet.
By eighty three, and certainly into eighty four, things were
(16:23):
looking much, much, much better, and that's why he got
forty nine out of fifty states. But Trump finishes his
tweet or truth post or whatever it was by saying,
be patient. My colleague here att Radio America, Chad Benson,
who has subbed for me on occasion, says, be patient.
That's what President Trump is telling America. Have you met America.
We can't even get through a TikTok if it seems
too long. Patience is not our strongest attribute. So you
(16:46):
got to be careful how you balance all that.
Speaker 1 (16:47):
I guess so didn't a golden age start on inauguration Day?
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Wasn't like that?
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This was supposed to be paradise, Okay, just checking it out, and.
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All right, Jim, it's not our intention to talk about
David Hogg at least once a week in his role
as Vice chair at the Democratic National Committee, but this
(18:31):
story is just so much fun. And now it appears
that the Democrats may have found a way to get
rid of David Hogg in the most delicious left wing
way possible. And so, of course, David Hogg elected one
of the vice chairs shortly after the twenty twenty four elections.
Democrats licking their wounds. They think David Hogg is this
perfect choice to lead outreach to young adults because gen Z,
(18:53):
especially gen Z guys, were not trending in the numbers
that the Democrats were hoping for. But as soon as
he gets there, he makes you know, I'm not giving
up my pack. Oh and by the way, the point
of my pack is to challenge incumbent Democrats and primaries,
and even though I'm working for you guys, I'm not
going to stop doing that. Well, now the Democrats are
trying to find a way to push him out. There
(19:13):
was a conference call led by the chairman, Ed Martin
last week, but now it would appear that they have
found the wokest way possible to get rid of him.
This is from Semaphore, a candidate who failed to win
a Democratic National Committee leadership role, is challenging her defeat
the first threat to DNC Vice chair David Hogg, since
he vowed to keep backing some primary challenges to incumbents.
(19:36):
This is a Native American attorney and party activist named
Calin Free, who lost to Hog in that February first meeting.
In her complaint shared with Semaphor by a Democratic source,
ms Free argued that she lost quote a fatally flawed
election that violated the DNC charter and discriminated against three
women of color candidates, and she asks for two new
(19:58):
vice chair elections. Quote. By aggregating votes across ballots and
failing to distinguish between gender categories in a meaningful way,
the DNC's process violated its own charter and by laws.
So jim all that verbiage to say that David Hogg
is a white male and that's a problem for the Democrats.
Speaker 1 (20:20):
So so first I want to double check something in
the reporting here. Greg reportedly she argued she lost a
fatally flawed election that violated DNC charter and served against
three women of color candidates, three three one of color.
Now I love my According to the Supreme Court Justice
(20:42):
Catanji bound, we don't know what a woman is. It's
you can't define it, you know. And then and you know,
there's talking about the you know, lack of gender categories.
How many just two genders? Twenty four thirty seven. So
on the one hand, people say, why isn't this a
good martini? Because I had argued back when you know,
Dave Hog announced that he was going on this jihad
against vulnerable Democratic incumbents, much to the applause and roaring
(21:06):
enthusiasm of Republicans everywhere, was that David Hogg like really
didn't belong to the DNC, because that's you know, like
what I jokingly asked, did he know what the DNC did?
Democratic National National Party committees ninety nine point nine percent
of the time defend their incumbents.
Speaker 2 (21:22):
You really need to screw up big in order for your.
Speaker 1 (21:25):
National committee to not back you. Generally, the adage is
if you've already been elected and you have a pulse
and in the case of Biden maybe not, we will
defend you. We will make sure you will do everything
we can to make sure you get re elected. And
if you don't like the current group of Democrats, you
really that being the DNC vice chair is not the
job for you, And that David Hogg was this point
where he had to choose, and I think that Martin,
(21:47):
the DNC chair, had a very reasonable point to say, Look,
maybe you misunderstood what we do here. We protect incumbents.
If you hate our incumbents, you really shouldn't be here,
and you can go run your pack, you can go
to it's a free country. You go do it. But
you can't do that and stay here. So you either
got to give up your pack trying to get rid
of incumbents, or you got to be fully on board,
singing from the same songbook and defending incumbents here and
(22:08):
then he also reads the question why did the DNC
elect David Hogg?
Speaker 2 (22:11):
What you know? You knew I was a snake when
you let me in. Uh, we know what is this
kid good for?
Speaker 1 (22:17):
And I said this was probably celebrity and name recognition,
without the DNC members really thinking through, who is this kid,
what does he stand for, what does he want to do,
and what he actually helped the DNC in this position.
So they've reached the right conclusion, but they've gone all
about it the wrong way because really, the fact that
he's a straight white male, I assume he's straight. I
don't know that that's that's the least of his problems.
(22:38):
That that's really not the objection board. And what exactly
is she saying by aggregating votes across bounds? Does that
me counting? Is it good to like failing to distinguish
between gender categories in a meaningful way? Did she want
a separate category for the women candidates? And then they'd
have like it's like the NCAA, there's like a play
(23:00):
off round, play in round for like the team's ranks
sixty five to sixty nine or whatever. You know. I
don't even understand the objection, but I certainly think if
the Democratic Nation Committee wants to get rid of hog
it just decided he's quickly turned into a much bigger
headache than they want to deal with, they'll probably take
this opportunity. With that said, this is really dumb. This
is a dumb way to go about It was a
(23:20):
dumb selection of him, and you kind of wail for
all the problems of Republicans. Democrats seem even more dysfunctional
than the GOP is right now.
Speaker 2 (23:27):
Oh yeah, but watching them eat their own by their
own rules is just phenomenal. Here, Yeah, undermine both fairness
and gender diversity. So I guess she wanted the balloting
weighted somehow. I mean, it's just not a straight vote.
Speaker 1 (23:43):
I don't probably Yeah, one man, one vote, one woman,
two votes, I think would probably be the solution that
would solve that. And as we all know, under the
Supreme Court case of Italics versus Bold, underlining your argument
makes it more legally powerful means that all of a sudden,
the scritrusters have to take it much more seriously or
(24:03):
they had to click on the link. One of those
two things is what happens in that situation.
Speaker 2 (24:06):
Well, Jim, I think the only rational resolution now is
for Karin John Pierre to be the head of the DNC,
because she checks every single intersectional box for the for
the Democrats here, nobody could possibly match that. Because if
we're gonna chase David Hog out of the room for
being a white male, Ed Martin's gonna be sweating a
little bit too. I don't know exactly how this all
(24:27):
works for the rest of them, but to watch them
have to follow their own crazy rules is pretty fun.
Speaker 1 (24:32):
Greg, you're thinking too small. I would recommend celebrity deathmatch,
something akin to Mad Max Thunderdome, and just say two
two candidates enter, one candidate leads, you know, to quote
Heath Ledger's joker, we're gonna have tryouts.
Speaker 2 (24:48):
Why not? Why not turn into reality show? It's basically
what politics has become anyway, So all.
Speaker 1 (24:53):
Sorts of fun American gladiator they could have, like those
big pomp pomp things and trying to knock geat you
over wrong, you know, yeah, going out to good wait
to beat your vice shares any at this point?
Speaker 2 (25:02):
Why not? So Jim, have a great Wednesday. We'll talk
to again tomorrow. See then see you tomorrow, Greg, Jim Garretty,
National Review. I'm Greg Corumbus of Radio America. Thanks so
much for being with us today. Please be sure to
subscribe to the Three Martini Lunch if you don't already,
and tell your friends about us as well. Thanks also
for your five star ratings and your kind reviews. Those
really do help us. Please keep those coming. Get us
on your home devices. All you have to say is
(25:23):
play Three Martini Lunch podcast. Follow us both on X
He's at Jim Garretty, I'm at Greg Corumbus. Have a
terrific Wednesday. Join us again Thursday for the next Three
Martini Lunch
Welcome to the Three Martini Lunch. Grab a stool next
to Greg Corumbus of Radio America and Jim Garritty of
National Review.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Free Martini's coming up. Hey, really, glad you're with us
for the Wednesday edition of the Three Martini Lunch. A
lot to talk about today. We'll obviously be talking about
the new numbers on the economy slight contraction in the
first quarter of twenty twenty five. We'll get the official
numbers in about a month, but this is not being
well received on Wall Street, and we'll talk about all that.
(00:32):
Will also be taking a look at the latest developments
at the DNC. They might be finally finding a way
to get rid of David Hogg in the most democratic
left wing way possible. But we also have some good news, Jim,
which will also make a lot of lefties very very
upset on the climate front because it'll probably mean less
chances for them to make a lot of money off
of the climate change issue. But what stands out to you.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
I think I'm looking forward to our crazy Martini because
in a very strange way, it's predictable, but how it's
shook out is not. And I'll just leave that foreshadowing
for there.
Speaker 2 (01:04):
Well, we're gonna be talking about the economy in just
a second. And if you want a strong economy, it's
really a good idea to know how the economy works,
especially in a capitalistic economy. And in a lot of colleges,
that's a dirty word. Socialism is what they preach. Capitalism
is evil and only greedy people love that. But capitalism
(01:24):
is what has made a lot of people a lot
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(02:11):
apparently they don't.
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we'll get to the economy in just a second, but
(02:33):
first we have to take a look at the state
of our planet. Hat tip to hot Air, which got
this story ultimately from the Daily Skeptic, which reports that
dramatic confirmation that the sea ice in the Arctic has
been stable Jim for nearly two decades has contained in
a recently published science paper from a team led by
doctor Mark England from the University of Exeter. The finding
(02:56):
is of course obvious to anyone who studies the data,
but it will inconvenience and it's the activist cranks who
continue to promote supposed reductions in Arctics sea ice as
an important sign of their imaginary tipping points and their
fake climate crisis. Obviously some editorial lesson going on here
from the Daily Skeptic, but the facts of the facts,
despite the data showing the ice has been stable over
(03:18):
every month in the year since two thousand and seven.
Other people have been promising that the Arctic will be
ice free. Back in the late two thousands, Algorre said
would be ice free by twenty fourteen. Now, the famed
David Attenborough just a couple of years ago said the
region could be ice free in the summer by twenty
thirty five. That has never happened. What the data also shows, Jim,
(03:39):
and I know this will shock you, and I know
it will shock people with open minds. It turns out
the climate is cyclical, so there are times when the
ice is less, there are times when the ice is more.
And just because there are times when the ice is
slightly reducing doesn't mean the planet's about to burst into flames.
So having some rational thought on this is definitely a
good thing.
Speaker 1 (04:00):
Yeah, I mean, you've always seen this self destructive tension
in the greens and in the environmental movement that this
idea that like in order to get people to sit
up and tay pay attention to this, if you talk
about a problem that's going to be fifty years from now,
one hundred years and now one hundred fifty years, people
aren't that worried about it. I think was Dennis Miller,
who once did a routine of course, I care about
my kids, and I care about my grandkids. Great grandkids
(04:22):
not so much great great grandkids. I'm never going to
see them, so who cares. I don't think we should
necessarily have that attitude. But there's generally a sense that
the further off of problem is the more it is
out in the distance. So there's this need to front
load the catastrophic results of what's allegedly going on. My
favorite example of this and I went back and I
found Reuters did a fact check and said it was
not true that al Gore had predicted that all the
(04:44):
polarized caps would melt by twenty thirteen back in two
thousand and nine. Well, here's how it went down. He's
at the Copenhagen Climate change Summit. No word on how
he got there, but I'm going to bet he didn't
row there. Said that the latest research back then in
two thousand and nine was that the Arctic could be
completely ice free in five years. For those doing the math,
that means twenty fourteen. And they have a quote, these
(05:07):
figures are I can't do Al Gore as well as
you do Greg. But I'll just picture Al Gore saying this.
These figures are fresh. Some of the models suggest to
doctor Maslowski that there is a seventy five percent chance
that the entire North Polar ice cap during the summer
months could be completely ice free within five to seven years. Now,
(05:27):
he's got some wheel room there, some of the models
suggest could be.
Speaker 2 (05:32):
But we all know what that's antically.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
It's saying, hey, look at this five years or five
years away. We got to this. Now. The funny thing is,
at the time they went to this Dr Mutlowski, who
basically was like, I have no idea how this figure
was arrived at. I would never try to estimate likelihood
at anything as exact as this, So they went back
to Gore's office. Gore's office later said the seventy five
percent figure was one used by doctor Muslowski as a
(05:53):
ballpark figure several years ago in a conversation with mister Gore. Well,
if you're gonna go out and you're gonna speak in
a major com for it's you're gonna say something, as
you know, apocalyptically dooms. You probably want to be on
more solid ground. I guess you could say the ground
behind beneath him melted, but undneath his feet, he just
kind of fell through the ice. You could say, much
like all the penguins are supposedly gonna do for this. Look,
(06:15):
this is good news. This is not really shocking news.
And I think the green movement has actually hurt. But
because think about it, people don't like pollution. People don't
like to see, you know, natural wildlands spoiled. People like
to you know, get worried when they see strip malls
replacing where there used to be meadows and parks and forests.
They have an argument I think a lot of people
in the right would listen to. But when you say
(06:37):
we're gonna look like Mad Max in six months, if
you don't do exactly what I say, people.
Speaker 2 (06:41):
Tend to tune it out. Now, that's a very good point.
And it's always ten years. You ever noticed that we're
always ten years away. We have just enough time to
give away our freedoms and give the government more power,
take more of our money to throw at this problem,
to hopefully slow by a tiny fraction of a degree
the warming over the next several decades. It's never well,
(07:03):
we've missed our deadline. There's no chance. There's always a
chance if you just buy into their political agenda. But
their political agenda is always the same. We saw it
with the so called Inflation Reduction Act. It's a bunch
more money being thrown at green causes. Does it actually
do any good? Doesn't necessarily seem so. There's a lot
of people Andy McCarthy and I were talking about this
(07:24):
while you were gone a couple of weeks ago, where
just electric cars and the batteries. What happens to them
once they're done. The mining that's necessary to bring these
essential minerals to use to create these batteries, the weight
of the cars requiring more road construction, and on and
on and on a coast. So the green movement isn't
even actually green is the bottom line here in a
(07:45):
lot of different ways. But the hysteria getting kicked in
the gut here with this report, I think is a
good thing. Won't stop them, but I think it's a
good thing overall.
Speaker 1 (07:55):
Greg, we're always just twenty freedman units away from disaster.
Blast from the past on that reference.
Speaker 2 (08:03):
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ZocDoc dot com slash three mL. All right, Jim, we
(09:21):
are on the final day of April, and this is
around the time of the year where we get the
preliminary number for what happened in the economy over the
first quarter, meaning January through March. And as you have
foreshadowed in your writings and other people have suggested as well,
this was not going to be a great number. It
is not a great number. Gross domestic product fell at
a zero point three annualized pace, according to a Commerce
(09:44):
Department report Wednesday, adjusted for seasonal factors and inflation. Economists
surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a gain
of zero point four percent after GDP rose by two
point four percent in the fourth quarter of last year. However,
over the past day or so, some Wall Street economists
change their outlook to negative growth, largely because of an
unexpected rise in imports as companies and consumers sought to
(10:06):
get ahead of the Trump tariffs implemented in early April. Indeed,
CNBC reports imports soared forty one point three percent for
the quarter, driven by a fifty point nine percent increase
in goods imports. Subtract from the GDP and how it's calculated,
so the contraction and growth may not be viewed as
negatively given the potential for the trend to reverse in
(10:27):
subsequent quarters. Imports took more than five percentage points out
the headline reading exports rose one point eight percent, So Jim,
that suggests that the economy overall was doing quite well,
and that as a result of people trying to flood
our market with imports before the tariffs kick in, that
is bringing this number down. Without it, it probably would
(10:48):
have been north of three percent for the first quarter.
So President Trump not surprisingly out with the statement saying
this is Biden's stock market, a reaction to the fact
that the Wall Street does not like today's news. This
is Biden's stock market, not Trump's. I didn't take over
until January twentieth. Tariffs will soon start kicking in, and
companies are starting to move into the USA in record numbers.
(11:08):
Our country will boom, but we have to get rid
of the Biden quote unquote overhang. This will take a while.
Has nothing to do with tariffs. He says in all
caps only that he left us with bad numbers. But
when the boom begins, it will be like no other.
Be patient, he says in all caps plus three exclamation points.
So jim a lot to chew on here. What are
(11:28):
you chewing on? Most well?
Speaker 1 (11:30):
I noticed that back when the stock market was booming,
right after he took office, Trump jumped out to truth
Social and said, this is the Trump stock market. So
it's what it goes up is his. When it goes down,
it's Biden's. I suppose you could find a silver lining
to this last couple of weeks. You know, as soon
as we've heard that economic rattle in the engine and
the market started crashing. I take a look at the
Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank branch puts up with they call
(11:52):
GDP now, which basically, as I take the data as
it comes in, plug it into the worldlitzer the algorithm,
the formula, and try to reject what the gross domestic
product is going to be. Sometimes they miss, and so
they often give a range. They point out what other
ones are doing. But I think as of yesterday they
were expecting a loss of negative two point seven percent,
which would have been really bad by that standard. Only
(12:13):
going down three tenths of a percentage point is not
that bad, and We always to point out that the
first discovers beginning of January to end of March, so
the first twenty days technically the Biden administration. I don't
think that gets Trump off the hook too much for this.
I think a big chunk of this is both the
anticipation of the tariffs and I think the consequence of
the tariffs, and yes greater so so I think the
(12:34):
imports going up in the first couple months are probably
a sign that, like everybody wanted to get them in
before the tariffs did. There was a report that, like
you know, Apple was bringing in planeloads of iPhones as
fast as it could before the tariffs went need to effect.
So that's going to skew the numbers a little bit.
But I also think you look at not just the
problem of the stock markets, you look at the consequences
(12:55):
for global shipping, global imports, global exports. I wrote about
this in the Washington Post. The flow of cargo into
the port of Los Angeles is down dramatically. They expect
it's going to go down further. Exports are down. When
this happens, this means there's less work for the truckers.
The truckers apparently were saying that last week was comparable
to like Christmas Day or Thanksgiving Day for the amount
of traffic that was going out of Los Angeles. Look,
(13:17):
the supply chain is getting seriously disrupted by this. Now
we remember disruptions to supply chains back and coming out
of COVID twenty two. That was not fun for anybody.
And I don't know whether we'll necessarily see empty shelves
on stores, but when you have fewer shipments going through
the pipeline, it gets bad. And by the way, it's
a hitting the West coast ports now. The expectation is
(13:38):
you'll see similar numbers in the Gulf coast ports like
Houston and the East coast ports like New York and
Savannah in the next ten days or so. This is
all a bad economic news, and so I'm not surprised
that went down three tens per percentage point. It wouldn't
surprise me if the second quarter had some bad numbers
two greg As you know, traditionally the definition of a
recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth less.
(14:00):
Joe Biden is president, and then he gets right because
it happened in twenty twenty two and everything. Well, it's
not really a recession. It's only a recession if it
comes from the French region of recessia. Otherwise it's just
a sparkling economic downturn.
Speaker 2 (14:13):
Yeah, how many lefty economists set their reputations on fire
with that one, trying to do damage control for Joe
Biden when that happened. It's just incredible. But yes, obviously
the numbers not where we want it to be. Some
people now think the fact that the tariffs to some
extent are kicking in here, at least the ten percent
part of the tariffs and the bigger ones on China
that imports won't be as much of a drag on
(14:34):
GDP in the second quarter, so maybe that'll help things
a little bit. My question though, is that you know,
the tariffs kicked in on April second, not first quarter.
The market reaction to that was second quarter, So is
potentially some of what the Atlanta Fed analyzing there more
geared for second quarter analysis or is that all baked
into their Q one analysis.
Speaker 1 (14:56):
That's a good question, and I think because Trump had
talked about this well, he did an interview with ABC
News in which they said, you know, were the American
people prepared for this, and Trump said, I ran on this,
and they did. I think there was a lot of
people who thought the tariffs of first of second term
Trump would be kind of like the ones he did
on China in the first term, you know, less than ideal,
but more specific to particular industries, steal at aluminum and
(15:17):
things like that, and that you know, if you're a
free trader, they'd be seriously suboptimal. But the sort of
thing the country could muddle through. These are different that
we saw the giant Liberation day, the giant unveiling of
all the different kinds and the different levels, and a
lot of those were taken back to ten percent, but
that's still higher than they were before, and in the
case of China, there's still quite high. Trump said they
(15:40):
might be coming down. I also think by the way
the rapid changes we have had five levels of tariffs
in Trump's first one hundred days, I think the sheer constant,
you know, instability is a factor in lack of economic confidence,
because people simply don't know what it's going to cost
to buy something from China, and because of the retaliatory tariffs,
they don't know how much it's going to cost what
they sell it in China or in a bunch of
(16:02):
these other countries.
Speaker 2 (16:03):
You know, the patient's factor. We've talked about it before.
At what point, prior to the next election do things
need to be clearly moving in the right direction for
the American people to believe that that, yes, we're on
the right track. Those who would look at Reagan and
his tax cuts would say, you know, the eighty two
midterms didn't go well because we hadn't seen the results yet.
By eighty three, and certainly into eighty four, things were
(16:23):
looking much, much, much better, and that's why he got
forty nine out of fifty states. But Trump finishes his
tweet or truth post or whatever it was by saying,
be patient. My colleague here att Radio America, Chad Benson,
who has subbed for me on occasion, says, be patient.
That's what President Trump is telling America. Have you met America.
We can't even get through a TikTok if it seems
too long. Patience is not our strongest attribute. So you
(16:46):
got to be careful how you balance all that.
Speaker 1 (16:47):
I guess so didn't a golden age start on inauguration Day?
Speaker 2 (16:51):
Wasn't like that?
Speaker 1 (16:51):
This was supposed to be paradise, Okay, just checking it out, and.
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All right, Jim, it's not our intention to talk about
David Hogg at least once a week in his role
as Vice chair at the Democratic National Committee, but this
(18:31):
story is just so much fun. And now it appears
that the Democrats may have found a way to get
rid of David Hogg in the most delicious left wing
way possible. And so, of course, David Hogg elected one
of the vice chairs shortly after the twenty twenty four elections.
Democrats licking their wounds. They think David Hogg is this
perfect choice to lead outreach to young adults because gen Z,
(18:53):
especially gen Z guys, were not trending in the numbers
that the Democrats were hoping for. But as soon as
he gets there, he makes you know, I'm not giving
up my pack. Oh and by the way, the point
of my pack is to challenge incumbent Democrats and primaries,
and even though I'm working for you guys, I'm not
going to stop doing that. Well, now the Democrats are
trying to find a way to push him out. There
(19:13):
was a conference call led by the chairman, Ed Martin
last week, but now it would appear that they have
found the wokest way possible to get rid of him.
This is from Semaphore, a candidate who failed to win
a Democratic National Committee leadership role, is challenging her defeat
the first threat to DNC Vice chair David Hogg, since
he vowed to keep backing some primary challenges to incumbents.
(19:36):
This is a Native American attorney and party activist named
Calin Free, who lost to Hog in that February first meeting.
In her complaint shared with Semaphor by a Democratic source,
ms Free argued that she lost quote a fatally flawed
election that violated the DNC charter and discriminated against three
women of color candidates, and she asks for two new
(19:58):
vice chair elections. Quote. By aggregating votes across ballots and
failing to distinguish between gender categories in a meaningful way,
the DNC's process violated its own charter and by laws.
So jim all that verbiage to say that David Hogg
is a white male and that's a problem for the Democrats.
Speaker 1 (20:20):
So so first I want to double check something in
the reporting here. Greg reportedly she argued she lost a
fatally flawed election that violated DNC charter and served against
three women of color candidates, three three one of color.
Now I love my According to the Supreme Court Justice
(20:42):
Catanji bound, we don't know what a woman is. It's
you can't define it, you know. And then and you know,
there's talking about the you know, lack of gender categories.
How many just two genders? Twenty four thirty seven. So
on the one hand, people say, why isn't this a
good martini? Because I had argued back when you know,
Dave Hog announced that he was going on this jihad
against vulnerable Democratic incumbents, much to the applause and roaring
(21:06):
enthusiasm of Republicans everywhere, was that David Hogg like really
didn't belong to the DNC, because that's you know, like
what I jokingly asked, did he know what the DNC did?
Democratic National National Party committees ninety nine point nine percent
of the time defend their incumbents.
Speaker 2 (21:22):
You really need to screw up big in order for your.
Speaker 1 (21:25):
National committee to not back you. Generally, the adage is
if you've already been elected and you have a pulse
and in the case of Biden maybe not, we will
defend you. We will make sure you will do everything
we can to make sure you get re elected. And
if you don't like the current group of Democrats, you
really that being the DNC vice chair is not the
job for you, And that David Hogg was this point
where he had to choose, and I think that Martin,
(21:47):
the DNC chair, had a very reasonable point to say, Look,
maybe you misunderstood what we do here. We protect incumbents.
If you hate our incumbents, you really shouldn't be here,
and you can go run your pack, you can go
to it's a free country. You go do it. But
you can't do that and stay here. So you either
got to give up your pack trying to get rid
of incumbents, or you got to be fully on board,
singing from the same songbook and defending incumbents here and
(22:08):
then he also reads the question why did the DNC
elect David Hogg?
Speaker 2 (22:11):
What you know? You knew I was a snake when
you let me in. Uh, we know what is this
kid good for?
Speaker 1 (22:17):
And I said this was probably celebrity and name recognition,
without the DNC members really thinking through, who is this kid,
what does he stand for, what does he want to do,
and what he actually helped the DNC in this position.
So they've reached the right conclusion, but they've gone all
about it the wrong way because really, the fact that
he's a straight white male, I assume he's straight. I
don't know that that's that's the least of his problems.
(22:38):
That that's really not the objection board. And what exactly
is she saying by aggregating votes across bounds? Does that
me counting? Is it good to like failing to distinguish
between gender categories in a meaningful way? Did she want
a separate category for the women candidates? And then they'd
have like it's like the NCAA, there's like a play
(23:00):
off round, play in round for like the team's ranks
sixty five to sixty nine or whatever. You know. I
don't even understand the objection, but I certainly think if
the Democratic Nation Committee wants to get rid of hog
it just decided he's quickly turned into a much bigger
headache than they want to deal with, they'll probably take
this opportunity. With that said, this is really dumb. This
is a dumb way to go about It was a
(23:20):
dumb selection of him, and you kind of wail for
all the problems of Republicans. Democrats seem even more dysfunctional
than the GOP is right now.
Speaker 2 (23:27):
Oh yeah, but watching them eat their own by their
own rules is just phenomenal. Here, Yeah, undermine both fairness
and gender diversity. So I guess she wanted the balloting
weighted somehow. I mean, it's just not a straight vote.
Speaker 1 (23:43):
I don't probably Yeah, one man, one vote, one woman,
two votes, I think would probably be the solution that
would solve that. And as we all know, under the
Supreme Court case of Italics versus Bold, underlining your argument
makes it more legally powerful means that all of a sudden,
the scritrusters have to take it much more seriously or
(24:03):
they had to click on the link. One of those
two things is what happens in that situation.
Speaker 2 (24:06):
Well, Jim, I think the only rational resolution now is
for Karin John Pierre to be the head of the DNC,
because she checks every single intersectional box for the for
the Democrats here, nobody could possibly match that. Because if
we're gonna chase David Hog out of the room for
being a white male, Ed Martin's gonna be sweating a
little bit too. I don't know exactly how this all
(24:27):
works for the rest of them, but to watch them
have to follow their own crazy rules is pretty fun.
Speaker 1 (24:32):
Greg, you're thinking too small. I would recommend celebrity deathmatch,
something akin to Mad Max Thunderdome, and just say two
two candidates enter, one candidate leads, you know, to quote
Heath Ledger's joker, we're gonna have tryouts.
Speaker 2 (24:48):
Why not? Why not turn into reality show? It's basically
what politics has become anyway, So all.
Speaker 1 (24:53):
Sorts of fun American gladiator they could have, like those
big pomp pomp things and trying to knock geat you
over wrong, you know, yeah, going out to good wait
to beat your vice shares any at this point?
Speaker 2 (25:02):
Why not? So Jim, have a great Wednesday. We'll talk
to again tomorrow. See then see you tomorrow, Greg, Jim Garretty,
National Review. I'm Greg Corumbus of Radio America. Thanks so
much for being with us today. Please be sure to
subscribe to the Three Martini Lunch if you don't already,
and tell your friends about us as well. Thanks also
for your five star ratings and your kind reviews. Those
really do help us. Please keep those coming. Get us
on your home devices. All you have to say is
(25:23):
play Three Martini Lunch podcast. Follow us both on X
He's at Jim Garretty, I'm at Greg Corumbus. Have a
terrific Wednesday. Join us again Thursday for the next Three
Martini Lunch
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