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November 10, 2025 26 mins
Ricochet Co-Founder Rob Long is in for Jim today. Join Rob and Greg for the Monday 3 Martini Lunch as they chronicle the Senate Dems finally ending their pointless shutdown, President Trump promising millions of Americans money from tariff revenues, and now the New York Times reports how much Zohran Mamdani's agenda will cost.

First, they welcome the news that eight Senate Democrats voted to end debate on a bill to fund the government, clearing the way for its passage. While the progressive left is furious at those who “caved,” Rob notes the shutdown strategy was never going to succeed. He also explains why Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy is spectacularly wrong in arguing that the shutdown was necessary to “save democracy.”

Next, they shake their heads as President Trump promising to send $2,000 checks to low and middle income Americans due to increased revenues from tariffs. Rob and Greg explain why this is not a good idea and how very recent history gives us the proof. They also scratch their heads over the emerging idea of 50-year mortgages.

Finally, they find the timing suspicious as the New York Times waits until after the election to reveal the massive costs of New York City Mayor-Elect Zohran Mamdani’s proposals for free childcare and bus rides. They also discuss Mamdani's idea of raising more revenue to pay for all this by increasing fines.

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Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Welcome to the Three Martini Lunch.

Speaker 2 (00:04):
Grab a stool next to Greg Corumbus of Radio America
and Jim Garritty of National Review.

Speaker 1 (00:10):
Free martinis coming up.

Speaker 3 (00:14):
So glad you're with us for the Monday edition of
the Three Martini Lunch. Jim Garrity is not here today.
He's probably basking in the second win of the season
for his beloved New York Jets. Wherever he is today,
I can promise series not in a war zone. But
here in his place today is Rob Long. Rob is
a co founder of Ricochet. He's co host of The
glob podcast. He's host of The Martini Shot. So many accomplishments,

(00:37):
Hollywood screenwriter, and so many things. Rob, Good to have
you with us.

Speaker 1 (00:40):
I'm glad to be here.

Speaker 3 (00:41):
We got so much to talk about. We've got a
theme today, kind of bad decision. So we're gonna be
talking about the Democrat's decision to shut down the government
for you know, almost a month and a half and
then after you know, doing really well in the elections,
then they decide to pack it in and go for
the clean resolution in the Senate Caucus is having a

(01:01):
lot of fun today. And then there's also President Trump
wanting to cut two thousand dollars checks to low and
middle income Americans based on revenues from the terriffs. We'll
be digging into that, and we'll be taking a look
at the price tag. Now that he's been elected, we
can actually look at the price tag, because we don't
want to do that first for Zorron Montdney's agenda in
New York City, free childcare, fore buses all that kind

(01:24):
of stuff. So, Rob, I know you don't live in
New York City anymore. I bet you're pretty glad of
that right now. But we've got a lot to dig
into today.

Speaker 1 (01:30):
Yeah. Yeah, I don't live there anymore. I'm happy to
not live there anymore. It allows me to sort of
like laugh and smirk and be completely free of any
kind of impending doom. But everybody I know who is
still living there is now just terrified. He doesn't know
what to do. You know, let it unfold, is what
I say.

Speaker 3 (01:47):
This is how we learn, as they say, all right, well,
we'll talk about all of that in a moment, starting
with the shutdown. But first, all right, Rob, Well, last night,
the United States Senate finally got to the sixty vote mark.
Cut off debate and moved to a final vote on

(02:09):
reopening the government at existing funding levels, which is actually
Biden era levels, and the Democrats didn't want to do
what's known as the clean cr They wanted to attach,
of course, renewed funding for Obamacare subsidies and some other things,
but ultimately they decided, or at least eight of them
did that that wasn't the smart way forward anymore. A
couple different ways of looking at this. On the Democratic side.

(02:31):
First of all, you've got Angus King, who was one
of those three Democrats or people who caucus with the Democrats.
He's technically and independent, basically saying the Democratic strategy was
pretty lousy from the get go.

Speaker 2 (02:42):
You have to go back to what the strategy was
at the beginning of the shutdown. There were two goals,
both of which I support. One was standing up to
Donald Trump. The other was getting some resolution on the
ACA premium tax credit issue. The problem was the shutdown
wasn't accomplishing either goals, and there was practically well there
was zero likelihood that it was going.

Speaker 3 (03:01):
To Isn't it weird that one of the tactics and
the reasons for shutting down the government was simply to
oppose Donald Trump. Oh, we also wanted to fill as.
We'll get to Senator Chris Murphy in a second. But
what do you make of the Democrats finding eight votes
to get to six.

Speaker 1 (03:18):
Well, they're acting like they they're surprised by this outcome.
I mean, look, you could go if you just drop
yourself into any town in America. I mean, it doesn't
have to be I don't mean normal anybody, and you
ask them to explain what that shutdown was and what
it was about, and what a continuing resolution is and
what a fill above. American people are baffled by this.

(03:38):
All they know is that this happens all the time.
It happens all the time. I mean, this is not
that it was the nineteenth thousandth shutdown in our my
adult lifetime. And at no point, never, at zero times,
has it ever benefited the party. Not in the White House.
They have always suffered, asked Newt Gingbridge. It never does.

(04:00):
And the idea that this time is different, this time
it's different, is just amazing. It's amazing people adult people
still say that to themselves and believe it. It's baffling
to me that everyone who's paid attention to the world
knows this except the people who are compelled to do
it over and over again. And whether they were the

(04:21):
Democrats this time, they're Probablynans have done it too. If
you're not the president and you're shutting down the government,
you're going to lose.

Speaker 3 (04:27):
Chris Murphy is a Democratic senator from Connecticut. He's less
rational than Angus King. And if you pay attention to
Chris Murphy, you know that here's him talking about why
he couldn't possibly have gone along with this vote last night.
He's got the five o'clock shadow going. Robbie's been working
around the clock trying to resist with the clenched fist.
But apparently this spite over money is really about saving democracy.

Speaker 4 (04:51):
I didn't want this shutdown. I wanted to end, but
not at any cost. And of course I wish that
there was a pas to saving this democracy and saving
people's health care that didn't involve pain. This shutdown hurt,
it did, But unfortunately, I don't think there is a

(05:13):
way to save this country, to save our democracy without
there being some difficult, hard moments along the way.

Speaker 3 (05:24):
Once against saving our democracy for Democrats seems to me,
and we didn't get our ways democracy. Yes, yes, so
that one.

Speaker 1 (05:33):
Well, they're always these people are staggeringly dense on either side,
but on this side. In American politics since the beginning
of America, since since the Constitution was written, it's in
the dna of our nation that you don't get what
you want. You get the C plus version of what
you want, the B minus version of what you want.
You never get what you want because this is too

(05:55):
many moving parts and the countries is too fractious, and
that's the way it's designed. So if you go into
Congress or into the Senate thinking you're going to get
what you want and you're not going to have to
eat that specific kind of cookie, which we're not going
to talk about, but basic what American politics is right,
and you're and you think that's going to be a
that's a reflection of democracy and the strength of democracy.

(06:15):
The fact that the democratic senators caved, the fact that
this fell apart, means that democracy as constituted by the
founders is working great. That's exactly what's supposed to happen.
They're supposed to be sad and humiliated and depressed over
a budget resolution. They're supposed to be incredibly furious and

(06:36):
ashamed they didn't get what they wanted. James Madison is
looking down from his throne on high and he's laughing
and saying, yeah, you guys, what are you going to
get this? Yeah, it's fine. It's like it's the opposite
of a last ditch effort to save democracy. This is
democracy in action.

Speaker 3 (06:53):
I would love to see regular order at some point.
Allegedly the House passed there eleven or twelve thirteen spending bills.
The Senate always slower, and then they never like what
the House did, and so it would be great because
that makes people a little bit more frugal, a little
bit more responsible, instead of just doing the omnibus bill
or the CR and Rob. We get to do this

(07:14):
all again. Assuming this passes the Senate today and the
House later in the week, we get to do this
all again in two months. So I'm sure you're excited
about that.

Speaker 1 (07:20):
Yeah. One thing we know for a fact is that
we'll never be on three martini lunch talking about a
government shutdown ever again, because these people have learned their
lesson and they will never repeat their idiotic mistakes of
the past. Thank God, this is over and done with.

Speaker 3 (07:34):
Forever now, and all the right people are really angry.
Bernie's upset, the Lincoln Projects upset. It's just fabulous. Okay. Anyway,
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(09:02):
aren't the only ones making questionable fiscal decisions or proposals
these days. Rob Let's move over to the President of
the United States. The White House post from this morning
quoting the President, all money left over from the two
thousand dollars payments made to low and middle income USA
citizens from the massive tariff income pouring into our country

(09:25):
from foreign countries will be substantial and be used to
substantially pay down the national debt unquote now. On Friday,
Jim pointed out that it took a whopping seventy one
days to go from a national debt of thirty seven
to thirty eight trillion dollars a little over two months
to rack up a trillion dollars in deficits and ultimately debt.

(09:48):
And so the other thing, of course here is that
we're kind of on the bubble rob of trying to
keep inflation tamed. It's right around three percent higher than
we want it to be. It's not the worst we've
ever seen it, but great and cutting checks to people,
as we learned during COVID, is a great way to
keep inflation path.

Speaker 1 (10:07):
It's Monday morning, so I might My advice to all
the Trump supporters is, don't come out in favor of
this just yet and talk about how it's very different
from what Biden did and these are not stimulus checks
and not sending free money to people. Hold your fire
because he might change his mind on you know, Wednesday,

(10:28):
in which case you'll look very foolish because then you'll
have to go back and tweet, Oh no, you know, wait,
you'd let me finish, as all these Trump supporters have
to do when he says something crazy. It's giving money,
free money to people is inflationary. It's inflationary. Whether Mickey
Mouse does it, or Joe Biden does it, or Donald
Trump does it, or Richard Nixon did it. That that's
a bad idea. It's also weird because I mean, I'm

(10:50):
just I was actually doing some math. It's hard to
I mean, look, they they say, I don't know. The
tariffs have been what two hundred billion dollars, they say,
although the audited numbers close to seventy five million, right,
But there's like thirty eight million people, thirty eight million
Americans who or poverty plus twenty five percent, So those
are poor Americans. And there's probably another I don't know

(11:10):
how many more that are around forty thousand dollars. So
I think the math, if you're really generous with everybody,
kind of works out, like I mean, it might actually
be if you send all those people checks for two
thousand dollars, you end up with zero from your tariff fund.
So in a way, it's like I kind of get
the apples the distribution of the of the boon here.

(11:34):
The problem is that you're not going to make that
much money on tariff. So the economy's going to shrink
because tariffs do that because of course the economic forces
that mean that inflation increases when you send people free money.
Those same Milton, you know, Milton Friedman was right about that,
and he was also right about tariff. So you're gonna
have a shrinking economy and you're not going to have inflation.
Trump is managing to recreate everything terrible about the Biden economy.

(11:58):
And the irony is, of course, that he supporters are
going to cheer him for it. Giving people checks is
a mistake. It is bananas to me. The Republican president,
or at least an erstwhile Republican president, is suggesting that
it is bananas to me that there will be an
amen chorus among certain Republicans about how this is a
great idea. This to me is a sign that I mean, look,

(12:20):
if I could, if I had any AI capabilities at all,
I would a I would create an AI Milton Friedman,
and I would have him available. He'd be the new
groc Just ask him these questions and see what his
answer is, and his answer would be don't do it,
don't do this, but his answer will probably don't put
don't impose the tariffs either. And then on a political level,

(12:41):
the problem with this is that it's panic. He can't
even claim it's part of a worldwide pandemic and economic shutdown.
This is just panic because he's seeing that his policies
are not doing what he wants them to do. And so,
like everybody, every panic politician, it's like, well, what freak
crap can I give you now? So you'll forget Yet
that you're the economy is in your life demonstrably worse. Now,

(13:07):
that's bad sign. It's a bad sign in politics.

Speaker 3 (13:09):
The other thing that's been kicked around the last couple
of days here Rob is possibly go into a fifty
year mortgage, which seems incredibly, incredibly counter productive. But one
of the reasons it's being kicked around is because a
lot of young people can't afford homes these days though,
and that's one of the reasons why there's so much
economic frustration is people feel stuck. I'm not an economists,
you're not an economist, but well.

Speaker 1 (13:31):
I love the idea. People can't afford homes right now,
so let's make sure they can't afford them for twenty
more years. Look, it's every borrower's dream, really, when they
get right down to it, to die owing a lot
of money that cannot be recouped, right, That is kind
of what you want, right, I want the money now,
and you can come and knock on them my cast
close casket for the pavement, and you're not gonna get it, right.

(13:52):
That's everybody, everybody. It's what credit cards are. Credits cards,
spend spend, spends. That's been and you die and they
can't get they can't get you. But the problem with
with with real state and real estate prices to me,
and I'm not an economist, is that there is too
much intervention in the borrowing and paying for it, and
there are too many costs associated with it. If you look,
if you look at any closing of any real estate deal,

(14:13):
there's these pages and pages and pages of fees and
like the license to this guy and then this person's
fee and that person's fee, and all that's buried in
this thirty year mortgage. So like maybe your monthly payment
goes up five bucks, you don't even notice it. It's
like when you buy a car, like they throw it
all in there so that you don't even notice it.
Adding another twenty years of that is not going to

(14:35):
lower the price of any house. The houses are going
to rate, prizes are going to go to increase to
include and bake in that cake. And by the way,
every single scrow company, every single fee receiving participant in
that transaction, and there are I mean, if you buy
I bought a house in California, If you buy house California,
it's like you basically are writing a giant like it's

(14:55):
a huge thing. It's like a giant saga, like one
of those Scandinavian sagas, goes on for a thous and pages.
It's enormous, and all those people get a fee, and
that fee goes up every year because you don't notice it.
And whenever you don't notice a cost, guess what, it
goes up. It goes up. So housing prices will will
rise to accommodate that fifty year mortgage, probably in you know,

(15:19):
for a year. And if you don't believe me, I'm
not an economist. You're not an economist. If you don't
even believe economists, you just look and see what happened
in Japan. They did this in Japan, and this precise
thing happened. It's a series of stupid ideas coming from
people who either should know better or are just spinning
in panic at an economy that isn't working.

Speaker 3 (15:41):
The whole point, generally speaking, is to kind of have
your mortgage done by the time you hit retirement or
maybe just a little bit after that. Yeah, you know,
you know, want to be paying your mortgage at eighty
five or ninety or whenever. These fifty year mortgages would
kick in for some of these young people. So I
understand the effort to try and help, but I don't
think that's helping.

Speaker 1 (16:00):
But when you create an economy based on, or at
least a financial instrument economy based on refinancing, recombining, and
then collateralizing debt, nobody signs a fifty year mortgage thinking
that they're going to pay it off. Nobody sign a
thirty year mortage think you're gona paid off. They think, Okay,
if if I keep this house, I will refine, but
I'll also I plan to have five or six houses

(16:21):
in my life, the way I'm going to have five
or six jobs in my life. Whereas our parents and
grandparents thought, no, I gonna have one job in one house.
The solution isn't to make it easier and more fee
based and somehow more murky and less transparent. The solution
has become more market oriented, which is something that rather
than giving aybody two thousand dollars, maybe we should do that.

(16:42):
Give everybody a free webinar personal and home finance.

Speaker 3 (16:46):
We just created a whole new career for Robber's going
to create an AI Milton Friedman and then charge people
a bundle to learn the principles of capitalism, but he's
gonna set them free and he's going to make a
mint off of it. So well done, Robbed, well done,
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(18:11):
All right, rb onto our final martini, crazy Martini. And
as we mentioned at the top, you are a former
resident of New York City, so you've certainly dealt with
your share of terrible New York City mayors over the years. Yeah,
but perhaps not one. It's crazy as Oroun Mamdani, who
will take over at the stroke of midnight on New
Year's Day, and he's promised a lot of stuff, and

(18:32):
the New York Times has actually started digging into how
much this free quote unquote stuff is going to cast. Yes, yes, yes,
of course, only after the fact. He's the darling of
the race. He's this new fresh face. Gotta stop Cuomo.
I mean, we'll worry about the details later if you're
the mainstream media. Okay, But the biggest plan the time says,
by far, is free universal childcare. The city already offers

(18:55):
free preschool for all four year olds and many three
year olds. Expanding childcare to infant and the toddlers under
three would be a major challenge. Mister Mumdnnie's administration would
have to create new daycare facilities and higher scores of
childcare workers. Mister mum Donnie's own campaign estimated that this
could cost six billion dollars annually. The Times goes on
to say it really could be anywhere between two and

(19:16):
a half billion and maybe even north of twelve billion dollars,
especially if it gets expanded to the entire state. Then
there's of course buses that could be just a paltry
eight hundred million dollars annually. Looks pretty cheap compared to
the universal childcare thing, but if you go back to
twenty nineteen, level ridership in New York City would be

(19:38):
more like nine hundred million in bus fairs. And of
course he wants to tax the rich to do that
nine billion dollars. He wants a new revenue by increasing
income taxes for wealthy residents and corporate taxes on businesses.
As usual, they don't get super specific on what rich means.
So Rob Kathy Hochel has more influence over this than

(19:59):
a lot of people realize. As government of New York,
she can put the kibosh to a lot of this stuff,
and right now she seems to be leaning in that direction.
But what do you make of You get this political phenomenon,
and that's only after the fact where the hangovers worn off,
where you're like, oh, yeah, this doesn't look like a
very good idea.

Speaker 1 (20:18):
Yeah, I mean, none of that looks like a good idea.
I mean all of it comes to the head of
your free stuff, which you know I'm against because I'm
I'm an old man against you off my lawn. I
don't want to give you any free stuff. But it's
also kind of a strange way to look at what
the problems with the city are. And the problems with
the city are really this kind of weird imbalance in housing,

(20:40):
which I think is fair to say, this sort of
the enormous amount of like regulation that keeps people building
new housing, and then a regulatory, regulated housing market, and
then a kind of a squeeze in midtown and sort
of business sections where some of those businesses are leaving,
and then a kind of a perceived crime problem. Those

(21:02):
are the problems that actually hurt people have been raising
kids in New York City since New York City. They've
been raising kids in New York City when it was
a lot nastier than it is now. They've been raising
kids in New York City when there was a lot
more poverty and a lot more lawlessness. It isn't like
that is not an unsolvable problem or an emergency. The
emergency is making the city livable and making the city

(21:24):
a place where new people come and new people start businesses,
and new people feel that they can. That is the solution.
That is the area where solutions will be found. The
idea of creating a whole new set of city wide
entitlement benefits in a city that has so many of them,
and they overlap, and they compete, and they they're redundant,

(21:47):
and they're incredibly expensive, and they're all unionized is simply
not a solution. Reagan used to say something I thought
he said everything I thought was brilliant. But he says something.
There is not a one problem that we face today
as a nation that somebody isn't solving somewhere right now.
And the struggles to find out where they're solving that.

(22:09):
And they are solving a lot of childcare problems, childcare
issues for the variety of diversity of parents in New
York City, and the solving them in places that are
in the community base, usually in churches and places like that,
and a solution is going to come from there. It's
not going to come from city hall. And it's bizarre
that we have to say this after eighty years of

(22:30):
city intervention in these things. Well we have to say
it over and over again. There is no solution in
city hall.

Speaker 3 (22:35):
Yeah, people look to government way too often, especially in
the deep blue areas. But Madnnie has a backup plan,
rob in case Kathy Hukel kind of slams the door
on raising taxes on people. First of all, I'm Donnie,
and the city Council, I think, do have the power
to raise property taxes on people. But also also it
says in the Times he wants to streamline city contracts.
We'll see hire more auditors to enforce the tax code

(22:58):
and collect more fines. So they're going to be nitpicking
every little thing and raising the the pins and the fees.
So that's going to be a real popular Yeah.

Speaker 1 (23:08):
But you know, here's where my inner you know, authoritarian
comes out as somebody who was driving into New York
City on Saturday and I got for the first time
and I in a long long time, I got a
traffic ticket. I took a left on Sixth Avenue from
twenty third Street, and you're not allowed to do that.
And I did it because I was otherwise. I was
going to block the box and didn't want to do that.
And I said, displaining this to the cop, I said, look,

(23:29):
you know why I did this. I did this because
I was blocking the other thing and I wasn't supposed
to block the thing. That truck stopped in front of me.
And then well, you know, and I didn't. I made
a judgment call. And he goes, yeah, I know, I know,
I know. Here's your ticket. So I got Hey, if
if Mom Donnie's police force gave a ticket to every
stupid bike going down the wrong side or driving through traffic,

(23:52):
or every car stopped for know any reason, it just stops.
These cars New York City just stop sometime. So they just, oh,
I'm going to stop right here in the middle of
the road. If they if they, if they gave fat
tickets for that, I think they build him a statue.
I think he'd probably raise some money can pay for
all his crack pot. You know. That's my that's my
offer to Mumdanni crack down on that kind of thing,

(24:16):
big fat fines. As somebody who's paid one or is
going to pay one, I can say with the authority
that they work. And then just just watch it. You'll
they'll build a statue to you right in Madison Square.
It'll be the Mumdanni Mumdanni Square. They'll call it that,
because that's the only way to raise the real money,
and the only way to sort of to crack down
on and get fines and raise fine revenue without driving

(24:37):
everybody insane. And the other outcome would be an easier
place to walk around and buke and drive because people
would be forced to obey the law.

Speaker 3 (24:45):
That would make things easier. But I suspect he's more
along the line. So if prefers the probably find you
for whatever emissions your vehicles is a spiel, yeah, But
also you know, if your grass is a little too high,
or you know, these a little normally like hoa type
things that are really nitpicky. That seems to be the
way the left usually goes on these things. But if

(25:06):
he actually does what you suggest he does, I think
he would end up more popular.

Speaker 1 (25:10):
The problem with socialists is that they're liberals. You know,
if they weren't liberals, they'd be great because I wouldn't mind.
I would say one thousand dollars fee to ride a
bicycle in New York City every month. Problem solved.

Speaker 3 (25:22):
The ones that flagrantly flout the traffic laws and make
everybody's lives more dangerous are definitely frustrating. Got a lot
of those in DC too, But anyway, Rob, always great
to have you with us. I don't know how many
people are gonna listen to us, but they definitely should.
And good luck with your AI Milton Friedman project. I
think that's a real way.

Speaker 1 (25:41):
Thank you. We'll send two thousand dollars to everybody who
listens to this.

Speaker 3 (25:48):
There is some fine print on that, but Rob co
founder of Ricochet. He's also the co host of a
glob podcast, host of The Bartini shot in for Jim.
I'm Greg Corumbus of Radio America. Thanks so much for
being with us today. Please be sure to subscribe to
the podcast if you don't already. Thanks for your five

(26:08):
star ratings and your kind reviews. Please keep those coming.
Get us on your home devices. All you have to
say is play three Martini Lunch podcast. Follow all of
us on X Rob is at our CBL, Jim is
at Jim Garrity, I'm at Greg Corumbus and coming soon
Facebook and Instagram. So be you ready for that and
join us again Tuesday for the next three Martini Lunch
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