July 25, 2025 • 49 mins
Tonight on The Brian Crombie Hour, Brian interviews Olena Kryzhanivska about her weekly newsletters “Arms Trends in Ukraine” and how modern war has changed. Olena is a Ukrainian policy analyst and senior editor at the NATO Association of Canada. She has provided expert analysis for the Norwegian Embassy in Turkey and the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs. Currently, she authors the weekly Substack newsletter Ukraine’s Arms Monitor, which covers weapons transfers, military cooperation, defense technology, and drone warfare in the context of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Some topics of discussion include the main technological challenges Ukraine faces today, the top priority areas in Ukraine’s defense production and innovation, and what ways Ukraine and Canada, along with other NATO countries, can cooperate to enhance each other's defense capabilities.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The views expressed in the following program are those of
the participants and do not necessarily reflect the views of
Saga nine sixty AM or its management.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Good evening everyone, I'm Brian Crombie and welcome to the
Brian Crombie Hour on Saga nine sixty. I'm endlessly fascinated
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(00:40):
future of our economy. How do we build stronger communities?
What can we learn from music, theater or the sports.
How does policies shape real lives? What does leadership look
like today? If it's relevant, interesting and worth talking about,
you'll hear about it here. These are real conversations, in
depth conversations. These are ideas worth sharing. This is the
Brian Krome Radio ever and tonight I've got a really
(01:02):
fascinating show about Ukraine and what's going on in Eastern
Europe with an expert with us tonight, and I'm going
to try hard to pronounce her name. Our expert is
Olena kri is not Viska. How did I do?
Speaker 3 (01:19):
Great? Brian? Thank you Tell me how.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
To pronounce it correctly. Olana Krishnadiska is a Ukrainian policy
analyst and senior editor at the NATO Association of Canada.
She has provided expert analysis for the Norwegian Embassy in
Turkey and the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs. Currently,
she authors the weekly substack newsletter Ukrainian Arms Monitor, which
(01:43):
covers weapons transfers, military cooperation, defense technology, and drome warfare
in the context of Russia's war on Ukraine. Wow, how
did you get into all this?
Speaker 3 (01:56):
Thank you so much, Brian. Well, I think the conditions
were not the best. We're not perfect ones, right. I
got into this because of the war, unfortunately, and I
continue doing this because of my country which is fighting
and keeps fighting every day, this bloody wars. So that's
my little contribution.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
So you personally, you migrated from Ukraine to Turkey and
spent nine years in Turkey and that's when you did
your PhD. Is that correct? Yes, that's correct, And so
you must have left earlier than the war. That started
with the Russian invasion. You started, you left Ukraine? When
and why?
Speaker 3 (02:35):
I left Ukraine in twenty fifteen. I just wanted to travel.
I wanted to explore new countries, new cultures. I'm very international,
multicultural type of person. I'm very curious about things. So
I went to Turkey as a volunteer. I volunteered in
ghazan Tep city which is southeast of Turkey, for the
(02:55):
first two months, and then additional project I worked to
seean refugee children and youth. It was just the meds
of Syrian refugee crisis and the civil war in Syria.
So many children and many people generally from Syria across
the border and came to Gazantep that hosted the largest
(03:17):
number of Syrians over the years, approximately well one million,
I believe, and me and my colleagues from European Volunteer
Service worked with Syrian children tried to help them. At
the time, the response from Turkish government was not you know,
was not organized, and it's understandable because it was that
it was just a mess. So many people around. Now
(03:39):
the procedures are in place so they go to schools.
At the time they were not going to schools and
we worked with them. We tried to teach them some English,
some languages, but it was a great experience. After that,
I got the scholarship from the Turkish government and stayed
for my PhD, which lasted I think seven years. It
(04:02):
was quite a long time. I did work at the
Embassy of Norway in an Koran and yeah, at the
immigration department, so I was very lucky to get that
as well. Turkey is and is a hub for for
many things, for immigration as well, so many migrants from Ukraine,
from Middle East, from Syria, now from Russia as well,
(04:25):
so it was it was a great experience. And always
remember in Turkey.
Speaker 2 (04:29):
And then what brought you to Canada and the Native Association.
Speaker 3 (04:34):
I'm Kanada for less than a year now, you know.
At some point I realized that my I finished my
studies in Turkey. My job was also kind of stopped.
I stopped my professional development at some point because because
of the nature of the job, of the of the
embassy jobs in general, you cannot really progress as much
(04:57):
as you want. So just you know, making the decision
for my future future of my family and my husband,
we just decided to move to Canada. Which is which
is like an embodiment of American dream, but maybe even better. Right,
there are so many opportunities.
Speaker 2 (05:14):
And it's a lot better than the American dream, no question.
Speaker 3 (05:17):
Can definitely, definitely I love it being here.
Speaker 2 (05:22):
And what is the NATO Association of Canada.
Speaker 3 (05:26):
It's actually a very interesting organization as a charitable NGEO.
It's a non partisan organization, so we do not work
with political parties. We cooperate with all of them with
different representatives, but we do not represent the interest of
any political party. We promote the values of NATO and
we inform the Canadians about the importance of NATO for
(05:49):
Canada and for the world, especially in the current very
very difficult and challenging conditions when the NATO is challenged, right,
so Russia is challenging China, Iran are not only waging
the war against Ukraine but also challenge in NATO and
the unity of NATO. So I think that's now very
important to remind about the value of NATO and what
(06:13):
NATO brings to our lives and to lives of Canadians.
Speaker 2 (06:17):
And you publish a newsletter called Ukraine's Arms Monitor, Tell
me what that is and what do you talk about
in this Arms Monitor.
Speaker 3 (06:25):
Yeah, I started this newsletter in twenty twenty four, so
actually very interesting, very interesting story of how I got
to it. In the first place, I had an internship
at the United Nations office with the Aromat affairs that
you mentioned, and that's how I got introduced in the
topics of security and defense. Before that, during my PhD years,
(06:49):
I worked on the migration topic, so it was it
was different. But because of the war, because of my
work at the United Nations, I started getting interested in
the security weapons everything related to it, maybe from another perspective,
from the perspective of arms armed control. I was preparing
(07:10):
some reports, some news letters for you and at the time,
but then when I was when I already left United Nations,
I wanted to continue because I realized that people do
not know so many things that Ukraine is doing. Not
all information was available, you know, there are so many
information in Ukrainian and Russian, but in English it was
(07:32):
less at the time in the area of arms control.
And then I just realized that I need to expand it.
I need to include everything else because Ukraine is showing
like fascinating results on a battlefield. But also because of
the resilience of people. They are so creative, so in innovatives,
they are creating so many solutions in defense production and
(07:55):
defense tech. And that's how my news letter expanded. So
first it was on linked In. It was just I
had it weekly on a weekly basis. I had it
one year, and then I moved to substack. Now it
includes two weekly newsletters, which are the first one is
(08:17):
about general you know, development on a battlefield and defense
production where where things move forward. But also the second
one is about drones specifically because it's such a popular
topic and everybody wants to know about drones. There are
like hundreds of types of drones that we see on
a battlefield in Ukraine, mostly from Ukrainian side, but Russia
(08:42):
innovates also extensively and improves its drones and counter drones,
uh you know counter drones actually capabilities. So yeah, I'm
just making a general overview of the weekly trends. It's
very I would read it myself if I wasn't an
(09:02):
author of it, because I really I'm getting, you know,
so much interested, motivated and fascinated every time I get
to prepare the weekly newsletters.
Speaker 2 (09:13):
And then I must be one as well on arms trends.
Speaker 3 (09:17):
Yeah, that's correct. I wanted to mention that about Russia
as well. It was actually I got advice from my
good friend Valkan Devlen, who I guess was interviewed sometime
ago here as well by you. Well, he told me,
he gave me this great recommendation that well, you should
(09:38):
do Russia as well, because many people do not really
exactly understand what is happening in Russia. We have now
many sources about Ukraine, many many reports, but Russia is
always like a mystery, but in this situation in a
bad sense, because Russia has been doing a lot of
military production, you know, getting heavily mil riis, and its
(10:01):
cooperation with with Iran, with North Korea is just growing
every day, so people need to know about that. And
international audience, so America, Canada, you know, maybe here in
Canada people understand a little bit less these threats coming
from from these destructive alliances because it's so far. The
(10:23):
distance is a huge, so maybe Canada is not threatned directly.
But again it's a it's a globalized world, so everything
is closer than it seems. Right. Canada is involved in
many regions in the in the Pacific, and Russia is
there too, and and North Korea as well, and what
they do to Canadian partners and allies, the possible threats
(10:48):
that arise from from that corporation. All of this is
very destructive and I need it should be emphasized. I
think it should be emphasized more. And that's what I
try to do with my newsletters.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
And if people want to sign up for these newsletters
and or follow you, what's the best way to do
that LinkedIn or substack or what substack?
Speaker 3 (11:08):
Definitely it's on substack. But if they want to follow
me on LinkedIn, I publish my regular updates on substack.
So the network is growing re sharing it. Yeah, So
either race fun.
Speaker 2 (11:22):
We're going to take a break for some messages and
come back and we're going to really delve into what's
going on in the military arms race in Ukraine and Russia.
We're going to talk about drones, We're going to talk
about technological impediments that we're going to talk about NATO,
We're going to talk about arms from the West. This
is going to be an interesting conversation with our experts today.
Stay with us, everyone, We'll be back in just two.
Speaker 1 (11:43):
Minutes stream us live at SAGA nine six am dot CA.
Speaker 2 (12:03):
Well, welcome back everyone to the Brian Cromby Radio War.
I've got a Lena Krusiniska with us today. She is
a defense analyst. She publishes something called Ukraine's Arms Monitor newsletter.
She is a PhD expert in UH in in in
immigration and dislocation and and what's been going on in
the in Eastern Europe and the Middle East in regards
(12:25):
to refugees and how they get dislocated and integrated into
into societies, and so that'll be an interesting conversation. But
right now she's really focused on what's going on with
the Russian invasion of Ukraine and drones and arms and
UH and both on the Ukrainian side as well as
the Russian side. And she publishes two weekly newsletters and
one monthly newsletter on this topic and UH and so
(12:46):
it's a real honor to have her with us. She's
got three degrees a UH, a bachelor's and UH and
A and a master's in political science and then a
PhD as well UH. And she's worked in in in Kiev,
in Turkey and and now in Canada. And so you've
really got quite a broad experience. So then thank you
so much for sharing your expertise with us. So let
(13:08):
me ask you what's the biggest technological challenge facing Ukraine
from an arm standpoint today?
Speaker 3 (13:17):
I think there are several. So first of all, you know,
let's let's talk about more kind of things that we
see nowadays, and that is really directly threatening civilian population
in Ukraine, which is the arising number of drones and
all these combined attacks with drones, missiles, cruise missiles, ballistic
missiles that RuSHA is launching every day against Ukraine, so that.
Speaker 2 (13:42):
There's drones that that that are actually targeting specific people.
It's almost assassination attempts. Is this true?
Speaker 3 (13:50):
Well, it's not entirely true yet. I don't think so.
I think there are some you know, there are some
sci fi movies and videos about that, but I don't
think it's true just just right now. But everything is
moving towards it, so towards more autonomous drones that that
you know, are programmed, pre programmed to identify the target
(14:14):
and just to to attack that specific target those people.
So yeah, if you talk about that, you know, connecting
it with with my earlier arms control areas that I
worked in. It's going to be a real disaster for
whole societies if somebody with you know, the terrorist group
or any type of extremist group will get those drones
(14:36):
and we'll be able to program them and to target
people opposition or or just people from from other political views.
You know, that's going to be a really bad scenario.
But right now, right now, we don't have it yet.
Speaker 2 (14:52):
Okay, well that's good. So these drones, you know, drones
at the battlefield clearly what give us a sense of
the different uses. There's ones that are used for observation
that are high up and just tell people where the
different front lines are. But then there's drones that are
actually carrying bombs and ones that are attacking soldiers and
(15:13):
attacking texts. What are these different types of drones that
are being used right now?
Speaker 3 (15:17):
Yeah, Well, as there are so many. You know, there
are drones that are used specifically on a battlefield, but
on a very short range, and they are used for
some specific just tasks for you know, destruction of enemy
equipment or just infantry of the enemy. FPV drones that
they are very small and they are used within at
(15:38):
twenty to forty kilometers, so mostly on the front line.
We have also different modifications of those drones, for example,
fiber optic drones. The current problem that Ukraine now has
on a battlefield, it's the same FPV like very little
quadruc opters, like little drones, but they are being guided
by this very thin fiber optic cable that is produced
(16:02):
mostly by China right now at the moment. So the
problem with the drones and that well the either side
is not able to interfere with them with electronic warfare.
So with jamming, you know, they are unjammable. That is
not a new technology and that is but it's been
extensively used now on a battlefield, first by Russia, now
(16:24):
by Ukraine, so you cannot Yeah.
Speaker 2 (16:27):
So these drones are actually attached by fiber optic cable
in what yeah, bilometers of fiber optic.
Speaker 3 (16:34):
Cable twenty kilometers, forty kilometers, that's correct.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
Yeah, that's a lot of fiber optic cable.
Speaker 3 (16:42):
That's a lot. And you know, the pollution from this
cable that now covers the fields of Ukraine, the forest
of Ukraine is just incredible, unbelievable because definitely the fiber
optic drones are being used in mass both by Russia
and by Ukraine. So you can imagine somebody needs to
(17:02):
go and clean. Sometimes I just get entangled in other
fiber optic cables that are already there, so with other drones,
and that's how like the only way how to disable
them is to physically cut the cable or just to
destroy the drone with the with the you know, automatic
rifle with the machine gun, like just to destroy them physically.
(17:24):
So but yeah, the other side is what you mentioned exactly,
Like imagine it's like fields of fiber optic cable that
there are so many photos right now. So it's a
very dangerous trend indeed. But you know, if you want
to go to entail into other types of drones, that's correct.
We have reconnaissance drones that are collecting all the information
(17:47):
about about the enemy, about the movement, right they are
being used by Russia by Ukraine for either side. But
then we have those striped drones and yeah, strike drones
that are targeting specifically not only targeting, but they are
also their goal is to terrorize the civilian population like
(18:11):
Shahad drones that Russia is using right now in large numbers.
So hundreds a night of Shahad drones that are Shahad
is the like generic name. First of all, they were
created by Iranians and Russia, both the source code, all
the rights for production, and Russia is able to produce.
(18:31):
Russia now produces at least one hundred and seventy of
those drones a day, so imagine they can launch very
large stylos of those drones, if not every single night,
at least with some with some frequency, and it is
very very dangerous for Ukrainian civilians. They have very distinct noise,
(18:55):
so you can realize when a drone, you know, flies
over you. So they sound like a motorbike or like
alan mower. There are different yeah, there are different analogies
to that. But interestingly that sound was added intentionally to
create the psychological effect and to terrorize the civilian population.
(19:20):
So that that's what Russia is doing right now because
the front lines stalled, so they're not moving that much.
There have been different attempts to advance on a battlefield,
but by Russians in different regions. They have been amassing
troops in the Summi region on a northeast of Ukraine.
Also in the Neipropetrovsk region, but there there are no
(19:44):
movements very significant yet. So instead they're trying to you know,
to use the psychological warfare to terrorize civilians and and
to you know, to create the state of panic. So finally,
you Kraine would need to surrender or you know, accept
(20:04):
accept all those conditions which are very favorable for Ukraine
and basically means a surrender.
Speaker 2 (20:11):
Tell me a little bit about this attack that the
Ukraine did on air force bases way inside in Russia
where they hit the drones in truck lorries. Can you
explain what happened there?
Speaker 3 (20:25):
Yeah, it was a very creative attack exactly like it
was the first of June when it happened, and five
Russian bases were attacked, hosting strategic aircraft, strategic bombers. So
what Ukraine need did? Ukraine actually prepared all this operation
(20:47):
during eighteen months, so one and a half year of
preparation really went into this operation. And everybody, you know,
and when President Trump says that Ukraine has no cards,
you know, uses words like that. At that very moment,
President Zelenski knew that this operation wasn't going and it's
(21:07):
going to happen, So It's very interesting to you know,
to realize that that many people, you know, in the
United States and you're probably not known about all these
operations that have been planned in Ukraine and been planned
for years, for for many many months. So what exactly
happened is that Ukrainian as, the Security Service of Ukraine
(21:30):
very creatively smuggled while during all this like one half here,
smuggled some trucks and then some specific boxes, some special
actually boxes, large wooden boxes with those FPV very little
FPV drones that are able to operate within a very
(21:52):
short range. So those were not deep strike drones that
are flying you know, kilometer is like one thousand kilometers
from Ukraine. Those we were very small FPVY drones. They
were smuggled into Russia in trucks, so the drivers of
the trucks were actually Russian, they didn't know about that,
(22:14):
and they were remotely controlled by operators in Ukraine. And
at some given moment, the boxes the trucks opened and
the swarms of those very little drones that you're carrying
explosive payloads, they just were let out and they destroyed, yeah,
(22:36):
destroyed some of russia strategic aircraft. Actually a very large number.
The confirmed number is twenty two of those bombers either
destroyed or damaged. Ukraine even says about forty four aircraft,
which is a large number. But I don't think that
open source, open sources are able to verify those nowmbers,
(23:00):
you know, independently, it's not very easy. So from twenty
to forty bombers were destroyed as a result of that operation,
which is a very very serious blow for Russia, has
a very serious heat, and at the same night Russia
launched a very large attack against Ukraine as well. But
(23:22):
what they had to do actually is to look better
and to control better what is happening on their own
territory because four of their strategic air bases were attacked
on the day, on that night, and they didn't they
realized too late that it was happening. So yes, Ukraine
(23:43):
is also creative. It's also very strategic plans in advance,
and I think many more operations are currently ongoing and
in planning, and hopefully we will see some of them.
Speaker 2 (23:58):
I think many people were surprised that Ukraine would have
had such great intelligence about these air bases, where the
planes were, how they were configured, or were these drones
AUTONOMAUS such that they could find the planes and attack
them without without guidance from from intelligence or Ukraine.
Speaker 3 (24:15):
Well, you know, I think it's a combination of factors.
Ukraine has a wide network of contacts inside of Russia,
the same as Russia has inside of Ukraine. Ukraine has
has those contacts in Russia. So it's a combination. Yeah,
it's a combination of that, and and probably some supports
(24:35):
from allies. We do not know. There were no announcements
about There were no of course, no no, like you know,
kind of nobody admit to that. So yeah, it was
it was regarded as a solely the operation of Security
Service of Ukraine. Perhaps there was some assistance, but but
(24:56):
we don't know about that for sure.
Speaker 2 (24:57):
And what about this radio communication and if they're able
to jam at the front line, how did these drones
get controlled from thousands of kilometers away?
Speaker 3 (25:07):
Well, you know, that's there are some technological details that
I cannot really get into that, but but it's all possible.
And what Ukraine is moving right now and Russia as well,
are the more autonomous use of drones. So just that
that machine vision, when the when the pilots can guide
the drone up to a certain point and then the
(25:30):
drone goes by pre planned route to target some specific
areas of the bombers of that target. So you know,
everything was very meticulously planned, and it was very well
known where those drones where exactly they would hit, because
(25:51):
they cannot just hit you know, somewhere just you know,
in a wing, it will do no harm. They just
they had to hit some strategic wins in that in
that bomber, you know, like like fuel somewhere near that area.
So they were flying flying into into those specific kind
(26:12):
of holes and areas. So everything was very pre planned.
Ukraine used AI technologies to organize this operation. Ukraine studied
Russia those bombers. Ukraine studied very well the construction. Actually
those bombers were based on the Soviet some of them
were Soviet designed, yet some of them were based on
(26:36):
the Soviet design. So Ukraine has models of those planes,
has some samples from the past in some of its
aviation museums. So they conducted a very sorrow research and
AI scanning to identify those weak spots in Russian bombers
and and to target and to hit you know, strategically,
(26:58):
and to target those specific weak points. Yes, it's a
very admirable operation.
Speaker 2 (27:05):
Tell me about marine drones because we've heard a lot
about attacks that you know Russians fleets in the in
the Black Sea. Tell me about what are those? Are
those just like boats that are controlled autonomously.
Speaker 3 (27:20):
Yeah, they are boats that controlled autonomously. Sometimes those boats
carry usual aerial drones, so they are like you know
drone carriers. Now they are used.
Speaker 2 (27:32):
For other drones.
Speaker 3 (27:35):
Yeah, that's that's exactly what is happening, and it's happening
also you know in them in the air as well.
So there are mothership drones. That's another type. They are
kind of large colpters and they carry very very little
amphibiic drones and then they just they just take them
to the to the specific place and you know, to
(27:58):
extend their operational range. As I mentioned, as they are
they can work in like from twenty to forty kilometers.
So those smathership drones help them to transport them to
a specific area and then then FPIVO drones start to
start their operations. So the same works for naval drones.
(28:20):
Ukraine is a leader in this field and Russia even
though I mean it's it's another mystery why Russia hasn't
even hasn't achieved any success in its naval capabilities, because
that's something that's been discussed right now. Ukraine is very
active in that field. Ukraine destroyed not just with naval
(28:41):
drones but also with its Neptune missile that is very
famous and the missile that was used to think the
moscowa cruiser that was a very famous operation back in
twenty twenty two. So Ukraine actually without having active fleet,
(29:02):
managed to destroy one third of Russian fleet fleet in
a black sea, and Russia was was forced to retreat
to take its ships somewhere else out of the range
of those drones and of those missiles that Ukraine has,
and Russia didn't come up with anything on its own
(29:23):
that would Yeah, Russia has a fleet, right, so there
is no need like Ukraine has, but Russia's fleet was
very vulnerable. Russia didn't come up with its own naval
drones and and actually it's it's kind of a little
bit just I guess, trying to wait for a better
situation because Ukrainian s BO is launching many, many operations
(29:48):
in Crimea, which is currently controlled by Russia, in a
black Sea, So so black Sea is secure for those
important cargo shipments that Ukraine needs to deliver to different
countries and just to continue it's it's trade even in
the wartime.
Speaker 2 (30:04):
It's just amazing what's happened. It seems like warfare has
changed fairly dramatically with technology, and I guess that was
to be expected, but it is. It is amazing. We're
going to take a break for some messages and come
back in two minutes with our expert on what's going
on with the arms race in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
And the question I'm going to ask Alena next is
(30:26):
what is the technological challenges that the priorities that Ukraine's
defense production has as they think about the next stage
is the war? What does Ukraine have to do next?
Say with us everyone back in two minutes.
Speaker 1 (30:42):
No radio, no problem. Stream is live on SAGA ninety
sixty am dot c A.
Speaker 2 (30:59):
Welcome back every into the Brian Crombie Radio or I've
got Alana Krishniska with us, said tonight. She is an
expert on arms, which is fascinating for such a wonderful
young lady to be focused on. But what's going on
from an arm standpoint and a technological standpoint in the
Russian invasion of Ukraine. So we've talked about sort of
what has happened. Now I want to talk about what
(31:20):
needs to happen. And so if you could, Alena, talk
about the top priority areas in Ukraine's defense, production and innovation.
What do you think needs to be the focus, what
needs to be done.
Speaker 3 (31:33):
I can comment on what is the focus from the
point of Ukrainian authorities in Ukrainian military because first of all,
in Ukraine, the procurement is decentralized and it's based on
the needs of those military units. It's something that we
do not see in other countries, included in Russian because
it's not people in Kiev. It's not the president who
(31:55):
decides what is the priority, right, that's the military units
and now they are talent basically dictating what will be
the trends and what they want to receive. So what
we see now in Ukraine is the attempts for localization
of production of drones. Actually that's very hard to achieve
because many components for those unmanned systems are important important,
(32:20):
mostly from China. Russia also imports components from China from
different countries as well, for example Israel. Israel makes very
good yeah, defense technology in general, but for example cameras
for drones. But Ukraine tries to localize its production. It's
hard and it can be a little bit more expensive
(32:42):
maybe for a time being, but it is a very
important trend and it is what other countries also need
to aim at because we do not know what's going
to happen in our relations with China in the future.
Right China is a very unpredictable partner. And China is
the direct partner of Russia. So China helps a lot
(33:05):
to Russias and to Russia's mill tech to to sustain
this world, to to keep going to circumvence sanctions, to
import some of those critical components. So actually Ukraine really
tries to get rid of China in that in that
defense production, and that's the main focus. But in terms
(33:26):
of technologies, you know, also I need to mention that
dependency on the United States and other countries. So United States,
first of.
Speaker 2 (33:38):
All, we've heard about missiles, We've heard about babalistic missiles,
we've heard about spirit systems. Tell me about those.
Speaker 3 (33:47):
Ukraine desperately needs Patriot systems. That's that's we know for sure,
and you know, all the attempts of Ukrainian presidence and
Lensky and and Ukrainian government are to keep those you know,
somehow like to keep those relations with the United States
going on and being productive, even though it's very challenging
(34:08):
under the President Trump administration. But it's important to keep
those patriots coming in because Ukraine really needs them, and
Ukraine now do not have doesn't have that many alternatives,
especially against ballistic attacks. There are some there are some
European air defense systems that are efficient against cruise missiles,
(34:31):
so cruise missiles are being shut down, like almost almost
one hundred percent of them. But the ballistic missiles, that's
actually the point where Ukraine really needs support. Currently. I
believe only Italian French air defense system some Tea and
(34:52):
patriots that Ukraine has, so you know, only these two
systems are efficient against the ballistic missiles. Ukraine can start
the production because Ukraine tries to produce everything on its
own inside of Ukraine or maybe in partner countries. Currently
it's launching defense production projects in Europe, for example, in
(35:12):
the UK and in Denmark other countries as well. Maybe
Canada will be also on that list. I think there
are some negotiations as well. But Ukraine is not able
to produce to you, to create those anti ballistic missile
air defense systems. It's a very high level technology, a
(35:34):
lot of resources and needed, a lot of time is needed.
If it's in Ukraine, it will be very dangerous because
Russia hits exactly all those places, all those production sites
that Ukraine has, so it's dangerous, you know, to scale
up the production. All the production is moving underground right now.
(35:54):
So all those drone producers, many of them have the
facilities underground because it's very dangerous to have, you know,
just open facilities. Yeah, so Ukraine needs that support from
the United States, and we hope that it's coming. Recently,
it was announced seventeen well seventeen of something, it was
(36:18):
really unclear, seventeen patriot systems or just launchers what exactly
present Trump meant and by that statement, but I guess
some of those systems are now on the way to
Ukraine and missiles as well, and you know, we hope
for the best. So not entirely, not everything. Ukraine is
(36:40):
able to substitute with its own production and Europe and
Europe as well. So there is still some areas where
the support from United States it's very crucial.
Speaker 2 (36:52):
Do you think they're getting that support. Is there a
probability that that supports can increase? What's your sense of
the politics right now between Russia, Puden, Trump, US NATO, Ukraine,
et cetera.
Speaker 3 (37:05):
It is very hard for me to command because I
do not sometimes, and you know, it's very hard to
understand what is happening in President Trump's mind and how
he's been, you know, what was guiding him in his decisions,
because one week we hear one statement, the other week
something else. I think Ukraine counts a lot on his
(37:27):
support and on his health, and you know, I think, honestly,
maybe he sees this war and he sees that it's
possible to make some sort of negotiations, some sort of
peace agreement. He sees it in a transactional way, so
it's possible to negotiate with Puttin, it's possible to just
agree to make a business deal, something of that sort.
(37:51):
I think that's how he probably sees this war, but
he doesn't realize the gravity of Russia, that gravity of
Russia's intentions and it's long, long standing, long ongoing, you know,
hostility between Russia and Ukraine, mostly from Russia towards Ukraine.
(38:12):
So it's more kind of war of different mentalities, war
of different values, and war for different values because Ukraine
fights for liberty, for for freedom of choice, for freedom generally,
and Russia wants to just to get back to the
Russian Empire, to its imperialism. So I think President Trump
(38:34):
doesn't really understand that he wants to make a deal again.
He gave like two months I think or what was that, yeah,
two month's term to present put In to reach an agreement.
I don't think it's going to happen because Putin doesn't
want agreement, doesn't want a ceasfire, doesn't want his deal.
(38:55):
He wants a capitulation of Ukraine and surrender. I do
not think that those days still be productively used by
Russia to reach any sort of a sane agreement with Ukraine.
So I think that the war will be ongoing.
Speaker 2 (39:10):
So, you know, put In at one point in time,
and I think you know, some of the people in
the Trump War but argued that it was the potential
NATO expansion into Ukraine or at least that NATO expansion
into Poland, the Baltic uh you know, Finland, et cetera.
That that that caused Russia to be uh worried about
their own defense. And then the threat of NATO expanding
(39:34):
into the Ukraine, Ukraine joining the EU, you know, etcetera,
that that caused the Russian invasion. What you said a
couple of minutes ago was no, it was Russian imperialism.
What do you think it is? What what caused the
Russian invasion of Ukraine?
Speaker 3 (39:48):
I do think it's a Russian imperialism because it's it's
been a thing that it's ongoing for centuries. And it's
not only towards Ukraine, it's only it's towards all countries
surrounding Russia, Central Asian countries that are not in nature
rite towards otherbe Georgia. So all these countries, they are
not exactly on the best, They are not closed to
(40:09):
NATO as Ukraine is geographically, but they are still in
that zone of influence that Russia considers its own territory.
You know, it's everything about how they see Ukrainians, how
they see those nations. In the Soviet Union, there was
no difference of nations. There was no rights for language,
(40:31):
for culture. It was a dominant Russian culture, dominant Russian
language that we all had to learn. Well, I was lucky,
I was born already in independent Ukraine, but my parents
they all had to speak Russian and it was mandatory.
So it's about, you know, just restoring that world order,
order that put in ONTs to have. For him, you know,
(40:54):
the collapse of Soviet Union was the largest tragedy according
to his own words, so he wants to get back
to that. So, you know, NATO or not NATO. Of course,
Russia always plays plays kind of a victim of somebody's
else aggression, and it's always on defensive. So it's always
(41:15):
you know, just defending. Yeah, but it's it's all, it's
all incorrect. It's it's offensive. It's offensive country, it's aggressive country.
And you know, also Russia perhaps doesn't understand and and
many Russian people, I think in a Russian society do
not understand that there are you know, people in different
(41:39):
countries might want different things. They do not want to
be associated with Russia anymore. They want to be associated
with the European Union or NATO or the West. They
have different values they have different plans for their future.
They don't want to be the part of that regime
as before. So yeah, that's something that they cannot just
(42:01):
let happen, you know, they need to be part of it.
That's how they see their involvement in Ukraine.
Speaker 2 (42:07):
Unfortunately, We're going to take a final break and come
back and I'm gonna ask Elena what about Canada. She's
now working for the NATO Association of Canada and she's
made several speeches and articles about the implications of what's
going on on Canada. Let's turn to the Canadian focus
with some concluding comments in just two minutes. Stay with us,
everyone back in.
Speaker 1 (42:24):
Two stream US live at SAGA nine sixty am dot CA.
Speaker 2 (42:43):
Welcome back, everyone to the Brian Crombie Radio War. I've
got Elena Krizniska with us tonight. She is a defense
analyst that she works with the NATO Association of Canada.
We've been talking a lot about Ukraine and Russia, but
let's talk about Canada for a minute if we could.
Just before the end of the show, you wrote and
you spoke about something that you described as three Russian
threats and how Canada can prepare for them. What are
(43:07):
the three Russian threats the candidates to prepare for? Please?
Speaker 3 (43:13):
Okay, first, Arctic, right, Canada is an Arctic nician, but
so is Russia, and China also recently became an arct
technician according to its own announcement. So Russia and China
are really partnering very close to organize the military drills
in the Arctic to create some sort of transportation corridor. Also,
(43:36):
Russia invests very heavily in its base military basis all
around in different regions as well, you know, all around
all around Russia, in different parts of the world, but
in the Arctic in particular. So since the invasion of
Ukraine in twenty and twenty fourteen, the invasion of Crimea,
(43:57):
Russia has been investing in its Arctic basis and just
you know, rebuilding and you know it just reviving them.
So for what purposes, you know, the United States and
Canada should really take it into consideration for their future planning.
According to my knowledge, Canada doesn't really have many capabilities
(44:21):
in the Arctic, or maybe sufficient capabilities. I know that
the government is working on it. There is a new
defense spending plan, there are new strategies. It's very important
to focus on that and to see that Russia is
a real threat. The second challenge is in the Pacific.
As I mentioned, well, in the Pacific is very important
(44:41):
for Canada. Right, there are many many important partners there, Japan,
South Korea, and what Russia does in the in the Pacific,
and it's partnership with North Korea. And again we are
getting back to the drone warfare because North Korea is
now directly in volt on the battlefield from the Russian side,
(45:03):
so it learns about drones and one of its goals
actually is to learn about drone warfare. It opened the
drone production facility and all of this is directly threatening
the region, the stability in the region. You know, it's important.
You know Canada, it's it's it's important not to to
(45:24):
become isolated in our for foreign policy. And just to say, okay,
we have far from Russia, we are far from from Ukraine,
so we can support as much as we can, but
it's not really our conflict because it has the potential.
This war has the potential to become a world war, right,
a confrontation between between the Yeah, I think so.
Speaker 2 (45:48):
Eastern Europe the Middle East and the risk of Taiwan.
So what's the third risk, And the.
Speaker 3 (45:54):
Third risk is Africa. Africa. Actually it's also Canada just
recently published its African strategy, but there are some Canadian
businesses operating in Africa, specifically in the mining sector. And
what Russia. Yeah, Russia's presence in Africa is very extensive.
So I think Russia, Russia's military presence is confirmed in
(46:16):
at least seven countries of Africa. You know, there was
a very famous, kind of infamous Wagner group there until
the head of the Sparkener group was was killed in Russia.
But now that group kind of rebranded and it exists
under a different name, African Core. It's very active. It
(46:39):
supports different military juntahs, different regimes in African countries and
really undermining the security and stabilities. So for international companies
to conduct their business in those countries, it's going to
be very very challenging and very dangerous from you know,
even physically, but also from the financial perspective and those
(47:01):
threats you know, Canada and Africa Africa.
Speaker 2 (47:06):
Yeah, yeah, Alonie, we've only got a minute left. You've
got thousands of people listening to you.
Speaker 3 (47:10):
Right now.
Speaker 2 (47:11):
You spoke in Calgary of a partnership for lasting peace
Ukraine and Canada in NATO's new era. What's your message
to the thousands of Canadians that are listening to you
right now in regards to Canada and it's partnership with Ukraine.
Speaker 3 (47:25):
First of all, thanks so much to everybody for supporting
Ukrainian and thank you so much, Brian for giving Ukrainians
multiple times the opportunity to speak to you and to
your listeners. Secondly, we need to be really as Canadians,
we need to be really focused on what is happening
in the world, on what is happening in this war,
(47:47):
and need to see Russia seriously and it's destructive partnerships
because it threatens not just Ukraine, it threatens all democratic
world and Canada as well.
Speaker 2 (47:59):
That's a show for Tenati, buddy, Alena, thank you so
much for joining us. I really appreciate you telling us
about the details about what's happened with really the conduct
of war, because I do think that particularly as we
ramp up our spending in Canada, as we face these
threats from Russia, that that that that you've described potential
British issues in the Pacific, but also very importantly support
(48:21):
for our ally and friend Ukraine. We need to be
mindful that war has changed. It's no longer the war
that we remember or hear about, or read about or
watching in videos. It's a it's a very different technological
war today and we need to be mindful of that,
both in what we supply to Ukraine and what we
manufacture for ourselves and prepare for ourselves. This has been
(48:43):
a fascating conversation. I am a frequent reader reader of
your LinkedIn posts and I'm now going to have to
subscribe to your substack because I really enjoy your writing
and and thank you very much for coming on our show.
Speaker 3 (48:54):
Thank you so much, Brian, Thank you for invited.
Speaker 2 (48:56):
That's our show for tonight, everybody, Thank you for joining us.
That remind you am on every Monday through Friday at
six o'clock on nine sixty am. You can get all
of my commentary and interviews on my website Briancromby dot com,
on my YouTube channel Brian Crombie, and on social media.
Thanks good night.
Speaker 1 (49:16):
Stream us live at SAGA nine six am dot CA.
The views expressed in the following program are those of
the participants and do not necessarily reflect the views of
Saga nine sixty AM or its management.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Good evening everyone, I'm Brian Crombie and welcome to the
Brian Crombie Hour on Saga nine sixty. I'm endlessly fascinated
by and curious about the world around US business, politics,
the arts, cultures, developments, social issues and the people who
are shaping the future. Every night, I dive into conversations
with thought leaders, change makers, entrepreneurs, politicians and everyday heroes
to unpack the ideas and stories that matter. What's the
(00:40):
future of our economy. How do we build stronger communities?
What can we learn from music, theater or the sports.
How does policies shape real lives? What does leadership look
like today? If it's relevant, interesting and worth talking about,
you'll hear about it here. These are real conversations, in
depth conversations. These are ideas worth sharing. This is the
Brian Krome Radio ever and tonight I've got a really
(01:02):
fascinating show about Ukraine and what's going on in Eastern
Europe with an expert with us tonight, and I'm going
to try hard to pronounce her name. Our expert is
Olena kri is not Viska. How did I do?
Speaker 3 (01:19):
Great? Brian? Thank you Tell me how.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
To pronounce it correctly. Olana Krishnadiska is a Ukrainian policy
analyst and senior editor at the NATO Association of Canada.
She has provided expert analysis for the Norwegian Embassy in
Turkey and the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs. Currently,
she authors the weekly substack newsletter Ukrainian Arms Monitor, which
(01:43):
covers weapons transfers, military cooperation, defense technology, and drome warfare
in the context of Russia's war on Ukraine. Wow, how
did you get into all this?
Speaker 3 (01:56):
Thank you so much, Brian. Well, I think the conditions
were not the best. We're not perfect ones, right. I
got into this because of the war, unfortunately, and I
continue doing this because of my country which is fighting
and keeps fighting every day, this bloody wars. So that's
my little contribution.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
So you personally, you migrated from Ukraine to Turkey and
spent nine years in Turkey and that's when you did
your PhD. Is that correct? Yes, that's correct, And so
you must have left earlier than the war. That started
with the Russian invasion. You started, you left Ukraine? When
and why?
Speaker 3 (02:35):
I left Ukraine in twenty fifteen. I just wanted to travel.
I wanted to explore new countries, new cultures. I'm very international,
multicultural type of person. I'm very curious about things. So
I went to Turkey as a volunteer. I volunteered in
ghazan Tep city which is southeast of Turkey, for the
(02:55):
first two months, and then additional project I worked to
seean refugee children and youth. It was just the meds
of Syrian refugee crisis and the civil war in Syria.
So many children and many people generally from Syria across
the border and came to Gazantep that hosted the largest
(03:17):
number of Syrians over the years, approximately well one million,
I believe, and me and my colleagues from European Volunteer
Service worked with Syrian children tried to help them. At
the time, the response from Turkish government was not you know,
was not organized, and it's understandable because it was that
it was just a mess. So many people around. Now
(03:39):
the procedures are in place so they go to schools.
At the time they were not going to schools and
we worked with them. We tried to teach them some English,
some languages, but it was a great experience. After that,
I got the scholarship from the Turkish government and stayed
for my PhD, which lasted I think seven years. It
(04:02):
was quite a long time. I did work at the
Embassy of Norway in an Koran and yeah, at the
immigration department, so I was very lucky to get that
as well. Turkey is and is a hub for for
many things, for immigration as well, so many migrants from Ukraine,
from Middle East, from Syria, now from Russia as well,
(04:25):
so it was it was a great experience. And always
remember in Turkey.
Speaker 2 (04:29):
And then what brought you to Canada and the Native Association.
Speaker 3 (04:34):
I'm Kanada for less than a year now, you know.
At some point I realized that my I finished my
studies in Turkey. My job was also kind of stopped.
I stopped my professional development at some point because because
of the nature of the job, of the of the
embassy jobs in general, you cannot really progress as much
(04:57):
as you want. So just you know, making the decision
for my future future of my family and my husband,
we just decided to move to Canada. Which is which
is like an embodiment of American dream, but maybe even better. Right,
there are so many opportunities.
Speaker 2 (05:14):
And it's a lot better than the American dream, no question.
Speaker 3 (05:17):
Can definitely, definitely I love it being here.
Speaker 2 (05:22):
And what is the NATO Association of Canada.
Speaker 3 (05:26):
It's actually a very interesting organization as a charitable NGEO.
It's a non partisan organization, so we do not work
with political parties. We cooperate with all of them with
different representatives, but we do not represent the interest of
any political party. We promote the values of NATO and
we inform the Canadians about the importance of NATO for
(05:49):
Canada and for the world, especially in the current very
very difficult and challenging conditions when the NATO is challenged, right,
so Russia is challenging China, Iran are not only waging
the war against Ukraine but also challenge in NATO and
the unity of NATO. So I think that's now very
important to remind about the value of NATO and what
(06:13):
NATO brings to our lives and to lives of Canadians.
Speaker 2 (06:17):
And you publish a newsletter called Ukraine's Arms Monitor, Tell
me what that is and what do you talk about
in this Arms Monitor.
Speaker 3 (06:25):
Yeah, I started this newsletter in twenty twenty four, so
actually very interesting, very interesting story of how I got
to it. In the first place, I had an internship
at the United Nations office with the Aromat affairs that
you mentioned, and that's how I got introduced in the
topics of security and defense. Before that, during my PhD years,
(06:49):
I worked on the migration topic, so it was it
was different. But because of the war, because of my
work at the United Nations, I started getting interested in
the security weapons everything related to it, maybe from another perspective,
from the perspective of arms armed control. I was preparing
(07:10):
some reports, some news letters for you and at the time,
but then when I was when I already left United Nations,
I wanted to continue because I realized that people do
not know so many things that Ukraine is doing. Not
all information was available, you know, there are so many
information in Ukrainian and Russian, but in English it was
(07:32):
less at the time in the area of arms control.
And then I just realized that I need to expand it.
I need to include everything else because Ukraine is showing
like fascinating results on a battlefield. But also because of
the resilience of people. They are so creative, so in innovatives,
they are creating so many solutions in defense production and
(07:55):
defense tech. And that's how my news letter expanded. So
first it was on linked In. It was just I
had it weekly on a weekly basis. I had it
one year, and then I moved to substack. Now it
includes two weekly newsletters, which are the first one is
(08:17):
about general you know, development on a battlefield and defense
production where where things move forward. But also the second
one is about drones specifically because it's such a popular
topic and everybody wants to know about drones. There are
like hundreds of types of drones that we see on
a battlefield in Ukraine, mostly from Ukrainian side, but Russia
(08:42):
innovates also extensively and improves its drones and counter drones,
uh you know counter drones actually capabilities. So yeah, I'm
just making a general overview of the weekly trends. It's
very I would read it myself if I wasn't an
(09:02):
author of it, because I really I'm getting, you know,
so much interested, motivated and fascinated every time I get
to prepare the weekly newsletters.
Speaker 2 (09:13):
And then I must be one as well on arms trends.
Speaker 3 (09:17):
Yeah, that's correct. I wanted to mention that about Russia
as well. It was actually I got advice from my
good friend Valkan Devlen, who I guess was interviewed sometime
ago here as well by you. Well, he told me,
he gave me this great recommendation that well, you should
(09:38):
do Russia as well, because many people do not really
exactly understand what is happening in Russia. We have now
many sources about Ukraine, many many reports, but Russia is
always like a mystery, but in this situation in a
bad sense, because Russia has been doing a lot of
military production, you know, getting heavily mil riis, and its
(10:01):
cooperation with with Iran, with North Korea is just growing
every day, so people need to know about that. And
international audience, so America, Canada, you know, maybe here in
Canada people understand a little bit less these threats coming
from from these destructive alliances because it's so far. The
(10:23):
distance is a huge, so maybe Canada is not threatned directly.
But again it's a it's a globalized world, so everything
is closer than it seems. Right. Canada is involved in
many regions in the in the Pacific, and Russia is
there too, and and North Korea as well, and what
they do to Canadian partners and allies, the possible threats
(10:48):
that arise from from that corporation. All of this is
very destructive and I need it should be emphasized. I
think it should be emphasized more. And that's what I
try to do with my newsletters.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
And if people want to sign up for these newsletters
and or follow you, what's the best way to do
that LinkedIn or substack or what substack?
Speaker 3 (11:08):
Definitely it's on substack. But if they want to follow
me on LinkedIn, I publish my regular updates on substack.
So the network is growing re sharing it. Yeah, So
either race fun.
Speaker 2 (11:22):
We're going to take a break for some messages and
come back and we're going to really delve into what's
going on in the military arms race in Ukraine and Russia.
We're going to talk about drones, We're going to talk
about technological impediments that we're going to talk about NATO,
We're going to talk about arms from the West. This
is going to be an interesting conversation with our experts today.
Stay with us, everyone, We'll be back in just two.
Speaker 1 (11:43):
Minutes stream us live at SAGA nine six am dot CA.
Speaker 2 (12:03):
Well, welcome back everyone to the Brian Cromby Radio War.
I've got a Lena Krusiniska with us today. She is
a defense analyst. She publishes something called Ukraine's Arms Monitor newsletter.
She is a PhD expert in UH in in in
immigration and dislocation and and what's been going on in
the in Eastern Europe and the Middle East in regards
(12:25):
to refugees and how they get dislocated and integrated into
into societies, and so that'll be an interesting conversation. But
right now she's really focused on what's going on with
the Russian invasion of Ukraine and drones and arms and
UH and both on the Ukrainian side as well as
the Russian side. And she publishes two weekly newsletters and
one monthly newsletter on this topic and UH and so
(12:46):
it's a real honor to have her with us. She's
got three degrees a UH, a bachelor's and UH and
A and a master's in political science and then a
PhD as well UH. And she's worked in in in Kiev,
in Turkey and and now in Canada. And so you've
really got quite a broad experience. So then thank you
so much for sharing your expertise with us. So let
(13:08):
me ask you what's the biggest technological challenge facing Ukraine
from an arm standpoint today?
Speaker 3 (13:17):
I think there are several. So first of all, you know,
let's let's talk about more kind of things that we
see nowadays, and that is really directly threatening civilian population
in Ukraine, which is the arising number of drones and
all these combined attacks with drones, missiles, cruise missiles, ballistic
missiles that RuSHA is launching every day against Ukraine, so that.
Speaker 2 (13:42):
There's drones that that that are actually targeting specific people.
It's almost assassination attempts. Is this true?
Speaker 3 (13:50):
Well, it's not entirely true yet. I don't think so.
I think there are some you know, there are some
sci fi movies and videos about that, but I don't
think it's true just just right now. But everything is
moving towards it, so towards more autonomous drones that that
you know, are programmed, pre programmed to identify the target
(14:14):
and just to to attack that specific target those people.
So yeah, if you talk about that, you know, connecting
it with with my earlier arms control areas that I
worked in. It's going to be a real disaster for
whole societies if somebody with you know, the terrorist group
or any type of extremist group will get those drones
(14:36):
and we'll be able to program them and to target
people opposition or or just people from from other political views.
You know, that's going to be a really bad scenario.
But right now, right now, we don't have it yet.
Speaker 2 (14:52):
Okay, well that's good. So these drones, you know, drones
at the battlefield clearly what give us a sense of
the different uses. There's ones that are used for observation
that are high up and just tell people where the
different front lines are. But then there's drones that are
actually carrying bombs and ones that are attacking soldiers and
(15:13):
attacking texts. What are these different types of drones that
are being used right now?
Speaker 3 (15:17):
Yeah, Well, as there are so many. You know, there
are drones that are used specifically on a battlefield, but
on a very short range, and they are used for
some specific just tasks for you know, destruction of enemy
equipment or just infantry of the enemy. FPV drones that
they are very small and they are used within at
(15:38):
twenty to forty kilometers, so mostly on the front line.
We have also different modifications of those drones, for example,
fiber optic drones. The current problem that Ukraine now has
on a battlefield, it's the same FPV like very little
quadruc opters, like little drones, but they are being guided
by this very thin fiber optic cable that is produced
(16:02):
mostly by China right now at the moment. So the
problem with the drones and that well the either side
is not able to interfere with them with electronic warfare.
So with jamming, you know, they are unjammable. That is
not a new technology and that is but it's been
extensively used now on a battlefield, first by Russia, now
(16:24):
by Ukraine, so you cannot Yeah.
Speaker 2 (16:27):
So these drones are actually attached by fiber optic cable
in what yeah, bilometers of fiber optic.
Speaker 3 (16:34):
Cable twenty kilometers, forty kilometers, that's correct.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
Yeah, that's a lot of fiber optic cable.
Speaker 3 (16:42):
That's a lot. And you know, the pollution from this
cable that now covers the fields of Ukraine, the forest
of Ukraine is just incredible, unbelievable because definitely the fiber
optic drones are being used in mass both by Russia
and by Ukraine. So you can imagine somebody needs to
(17:02):
go and clean. Sometimes I just get entangled in other
fiber optic cables that are already there, so with other drones,
and that's how like the only way how to disable
them is to physically cut the cable or just to
destroy the drone with the with the you know, automatic
rifle with the machine gun, like just to destroy them physically.
(17:24):
So but yeah, the other side is what you mentioned exactly,
Like imagine it's like fields of fiber optic cable that
there are so many photos right now. So it's a
very dangerous trend indeed. But you know, if you want
to go to entail into other types of drones, that's correct.
We have reconnaissance drones that are collecting all the information
(17:47):
about about the enemy, about the movement, right they are
being used by Russia by Ukraine for either side. But
then we have those striped drones and yeah, strike drones
that are targeting specifically not only targeting, but they are
also their goal is to terrorize the civilian population like
(18:11):
Shahad drones that Russia is using right now in large numbers.
So hundreds a night of Shahad drones that are Shahad
is the like generic name. First of all, they were
created by Iranians and Russia, both the source code, all
the rights for production, and Russia is able to produce.
(18:31):
Russia now produces at least one hundred and seventy of
those drones a day, so imagine they can launch very
large stylos of those drones, if not every single night,
at least with some with some frequency, and it is
very very dangerous for Ukrainian civilians. They have very distinct noise,
(18:55):
so you can realize when a drone, you know, flies
over you. So they sound like a motorbike or like
alan mower. There are different yeah, there are different analogies
to that. But interestingly that sound was added intentionally to
create the psychological effect and to terrorize the civilian population.
(19:20):
So that that's what Russia is doing right now because
the front lines stalled, so they're not moving that much.
There have been different attempts to advance on a battlefield,
but by Russians in different regions. They have been amassing
troops in the Summi region on a northeast of Ukraine.
Also in the Neipropetrovsk region, but there there are no
(19:44):
movements very significant yet. So instead they're trying to you know,
to use the psychological warfare to terrorize civilians and and
to you know, to create the state of panic. So finally,
you Kraine would need to surrender or you know, accept
(20:04):
accept all those conditions which are very favorable for Ukraine
and basically means a surrender.
Speaker 2 (20:11):
Tell me a little bit about this attack that the
Ukraine did on air force bases way inside in Russia
where they hit the drones in truck lorries. Can you
explain what happened there?
Speaker 3 (20:25):
Yeah, it was a very creative attack exactly like it
was the first of June when it happened, and five
Russian bases were attacked, hosting strategic aircraft, strategic bombers. So
what Ukraine need did? Ukraine actually prepared all this operation
(20:47):
during eighteen months, so one and a half year of
preparation really went into this operation. And everybody, you know,
and when President Trump says that Ukraine has no cards,
you know, uses words like that. At that very moment,
President Zelenski knew that this operation wasn't going and it's
(21:07):
going to happen, So It's very interesting to you know,
to realize that that many people, you know, in the
United States and you're probably not known about all these
operations that have been planned in Ukraine and been planned
for years, for for many many months. So what exactly
happened is that Ukrainian as, the Security Service of Ukraine
(21:30):
very creatively smuggled while during all this like one half here,
smuggled some trucks and then some specific boxes, some special
actually boxes, large wooden boxes with those FPV very little
FPV drones that are able to operate within a very
(21:52):
short range. So those were not deep strike drones that
are flying you know, kilometer is like one thousand kilometers
from Ukraine. Those we were very small FPVY drones. They
were smuggled into Russia in trucks, so the drivers of
the trucks were actually Russian, they didn't know about that,
(22:14):
and they were remotely controlled by operators in Ukraine. And
at some given moment, the boxes the trucks opened and
the swarms of those very little drones that you're carrying
explosive payloads, they just were let out and they destroyed, yeah,
(22:36):
destroyed some of russia strategic aircraft. Actually a very large number.
The confirmed number is twenty two of those bombers either
destroyed or damaged. Ukraine even says about forty four aircraft,
which is a large number. But I don't think that
open source, open sources are able to verify those nowmbers,
(23:00):
you know, independently, it's not very easy. So from twenty
to forty bombers were destroyed as a result of that operation,
which is a very very serious blow for Russia, has
a very serious heat, and at the same night Russia
launched a very large attack against Ukraine as well. But
(23:22):
what they had to do actually is to look better
and to control better what is happening on their own
territory because four of their strategic air bases were attacked
on the day, on that night, and they didn't they
realized too late that it was happening. So yes, Ukraine
(23:43):
is also creative. It's also very strategic plans in advance,
and I think many more operations are currently ongoing and
in planning, and hopefully we will see some of them.
Speaker 2 (23:58):
I think many people were surprised that Ukraine would have
had such great intelligence about these air bases, where the
planes were, how they were configured, or were these drones
AUTONOMAUS such that they could find the planes and attack
them without without guidance from from intelligence or Ukraine.
Speaker 3 (24:15):
Well, you know, I think it's a combination of factors.
Ukraine has a wide network of contacts inside of Russia,
the same as Russia has inside of Ukraine. Ukraine has
has those contacts in Russia. So it's a combination. Yeah,
it's a combination of that, and and probably some supports
(24:35):
from allies. We do not know. There were no announcements
about There were no of course, no no, like you know,
kind of nobody admit to that. So yeah, it was
it was regarded as a solely the operation of Security
Service of Ukraine. Perhaps there was some assistance, but but
(24:56):
we don't know about that for sure.
Speaker 2 (24:57):
And what about this radio communication and if they're able
to jam at the front line, how did these drones
get controlled from thousands of kilometers away?
Speaker 3 (25:07):
Well, you know, that's there are some technological details that
I cannot really get into that, but but it's all possible.
And what Ukraine is moving right now and Russia as well,
are the more autonomous use of drones. So just that
that machine vision, when the when the pilots can guide
the drone up to a certain point and then the
(25:30):
drone goes by pre planned route to target some specific
areas of the bombers of that target. So you know,
everything was very meticulously planned, and it was very well
known where those drones where exactly they would hit, because
(25:51):
they cannot just hit you know, somewhere just you know,
in a wing, it will do no harm. They just
they had to hit some strategic wins in that in
that bomber, you know, like like fuel somewhere near that area.
So they were flying flying into into those specific kind
(26:12):
of holes and areas. So everything was very pre planned.
Ukraine used AI technologies to organize this operation. Ukraine studied
Russia those bombers. Ukraine studied very well the construction. Actually
those bombers were based on the Soviet some of them
were Soviet designed, yet some of them were based on
(26:36):
the Soviet design. So Ukraine has models of those planes,
has some samples from the past in some of its
aviation museums. So they conducted a very sorrow research and
AI scanning to identify those weak spots in Russian bombers
and and to target and to hit you know, strategically,
(26:58):
and to target those specific weak points. Yes, it's a
very admirable operation.
Speaker 2 (27:05):
Tell me about marine drones because we've heard a lot
about attacks that you know Russians fleets in the in
the Black Sea. Tell me about what are those? Are
those just like boats that are controlled autonomously.
Speaker 3 (27:20):
Yeah, they are boats that controlled autonomously. Sometimes those boats
carry usual aerial drones, so they are like you know
drone carriers. Now they are used.
Speaker 2 (27:32):
For other drones.
Speaker 3 (27:35):
Yeah, that's that's exactly what is happening, and it's happening
also you know in them in the air as well.
So there are mothership drones. That's another type. They are
kind of large colpters and they carry very very little
amphibiic drones and then they just they just take them
to the to the specific place and you know, to
(27:58):
extend their operational range. As I mentioned, as they are
they can work in like from twenty to forty kilometers.
So those smathership drones help them to transport them to
a specific area and then then FPIVO drones start to
start their operations. So the same works for naval drones.
(28:20):
Ukraine is a leader in this field and Russia even
though I mean it's it's another mystery why Russia hasn't
even hasn't achieved any success in its naval capabilities, because
that's something that's been discussed right now. Ukraine is very
active in that field. Ukraine destroyed not just with naval
(28:41):
drones but also with its Neptune missile that is very
famous and the missile that was used to think the
moscowa cruiser that was a very famous operation back in
twenty twenty two. So Ukraine actually without having active fleet,
(29:02):
managed to destroy one third of Russian fleet fleet in
a black sea, and Russia was was forced to retreat
to take its ships somewhere else out of the range
of those drones and of those missiles that Ukraine has,
and Russia didn't come up with anything on its own
(29:23):
that would Yeah, Russia has a fleet, right, so there
is no need like Ukraine has, but Russia's fleet was
very vulnerable. Russia didn't come up with its own naval
drones and and actually it's it's kind of a little
bit just I guess, trying to wait for a better
situation because Ukrainian s BO is launching many, many operations
(29:48):
in Crimea, which is currently controlled by Russia, in a
black Sea, So so black Sea is secure for those
important cargo shipments that Ukraine needs to deliver to different
countries and just to continue it's it's trade even in
the wartime.
Speaker 2 (30:04):
It's just amazing what's happened. It seems like warfare has
changed fairly dramatically with technology, and I guess that was
to be expected, but it is. It is amazing. We're
going to take a break for some messages and come
back in two minutes with our expert on what's going
on with the arms race in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
And the question I'm going to ask Alena next is
(30:26):
what is the technological challenges that the priorities that Ukraine's
defense production has as they think about the next stage
is the war? What does Ukraine have to do next?
Say with us everyone back in two minutes.
Speaker 1 (30:42):
No radio, no problem. Stream is live on SAGA ninety
sixty am dot c A.
Speaker 2 (30:59):
Welcome back every into the Brian Crombie Radio or I've
got Alana Krishniska with us, said tonight. She is an
expert on arms, which is fascinating for such a wonderful
young lady to be focused on. But what's going on
from an arm standpoint and a technological standpoint in the
Russian invasion of Ukraine. So we've talked about sort of
what has happened. Now I want to talk about what
(31:20):
needs to happen. And so if you could, Alena, talk
about the top priority areas in Ukraine's defense, production and innovation.
What do you think needs to be the focus, what
needs to be done.
Speaker 3 (31:33):
I can comment on what is the focus from the
point of Ukrainian authorities in Ukrainian military because first of all,
in Ukraine, the procurement is decentralized and it's based on
the needs of those military units. It's something that we
do not see in other countries, included in Russian because
it's not people in Kiev. It's not the president who
(31:55):
decides what is the priority, right, that's the military units
and now they are talent basically dictating what will be
the trends and what they want to receive. So what
we see now in Ukraine is the attempts for localization
of production of drones. Actually that's very hard to achieve
because many components for those unmanned systems are important important,
(32:20):
mostly from China. Russia also imports components from China from
different countries as well, for example Israel. Israel makes very
good yeah, defense technology in general, but for example cameras
for drones. But Ukraine tries to localize its production. It's
hard and it can be a little bit more expensive
(32:42):
maybe for a time being, but it is a very
important trend and it is what other countries also need
to aim at because we do not know what's going
to happen in our relations with China in the future.
Right China is a very unpredictable partner. And China is
the direct partner of Russia. So China helps a lot
(33:05):
to Russias and to Russia's mill tech to to sustain
this world, to to keep going to circumvence sanctions, to
import some of those critical components. So actually Ukraine really
tries to get rid of China in that in that
defense production, and that's the main focus. But in terms
(33:26):
of technologies, you know, also I need to mention that
dependency on the United States and other countries. So United States,
first of.
Speaker 2 (33:38):
All, we've heard about missiles, We've heard about babalistic missiles,
we've heard about spirit systems. Tell me about those.
Speaker 3 (33:47):
Ukraine desperately needs Patriot systems. That's that's we know for sure,
and you know, all the attempts of Ukrainian presidence and
Lensky and and Ukrainian government are to keep those you know,
somehow like to keep those relations with the United States
going on and being productive, even though it's very challenging
(34:08):
under the President Trump administration. But it's important to keep
those patriots coming in because Ukraine really needs them, and
Ukraine now do not have doesn't have that many alternatives,
especially against ballistic attacks. There are some there are some
European air defense systems that are efficient against cruise missiles,
(34:31):
so cruise missiles are being shut down, like almost almost
one hundred percent of them. But the ballistic missiles, that's
actually the point where Ukraine really needs support. Currently. I
believe only Italian French air defense system some Tea and
(34:52):
patriots that Ukraine has, so you know, only these two
systems are efficient against the ballistic missiles. Ukraine can start
the production because Ukraine tries to produce everything on its
own inside of Ukraine or maybe in partner countries. Currently
it's launching defense production projects in Europe, for example, in
(35:12):
the UK and in Denmark other countries as well. Maybe
Canada will be also on that list. I think there
are some negotiations as well. But Ukraine is not able
to produce to you, to create those anti ballistic missile
air defense systems. It's a very high level technology, a
(35:34):
lot of resources and needed, a lot of time is needed.
If it's in Ukraine, it will be very dangerous because
Russia hits exactly all those places, all those production sites
that Ukraine has, so it's dangerous, you know, to scale
up the production. All the production is moving underground right now.
(35:54):
So all those drone producers, many of them have the
facilities underground because it's very dangerous to have, you know,
just open facilities. Yeah, so Ukraine needs that support from
the United States, and we hope that it's coming. Recently,
it was announced seventeen well seventeen of something, it was
(36:18):
really unclear, seventeen patriot systems or just launchers what exactly
present Trump meant and by that statement, but I guess
some of those systems are now on the way to
Ukraine and missiles as well, and you know, we hope
for the best. So not entirely, not everything. Ukraine is
(36:40):
able to substitute with its own production and Europe and
Europe as well. So there is still some areas where
the support from United States it's very crucial.
Speaker 2 (36:52):
Do you think they're getting that support. Is there a
probability that that supports can increase? What's your sense of
the politics right now between Russia, Puden, Trump, US NATO, Ukraine,
et cetera.
Speaker 3 (37:05):
It is very hard for me to command because I
do not sometimes, and you know, it's very hard to
understand what is happening in President Trump's mind and how
he's been, you know, what was guiding him in his decisions,
because one week we hear one statement, the other week
something else. I think Ukraine counts a lot on his
(37:27):
support and on his health, and you know, I think, honestly,
maybe he sees this war and he sees that it's
possible to make some sort of negotiations, some sort of
peace agreement. He sees it in a transactional way, so
it's possible to negotiate with Puttin, it's possible to just
agree to make a business deal, something of that sort.
(37:51):
I think that's how he probably sees this war, but
he doesn't realize the gravity of Russia, that gravity of
Russia's intentions and it's long, long standing, long ongoing, you know,
hostility between Russia and Ukraine, mostly from Russia towards Ukraine.
(38:12):
So it's more kind of war of different mentalities, war
of different values, and war for different values because Ukraine
fights for liberty, for for freedom of choice, for freedom generally,
and Russia wants to just to get back to the
Russian Empire, to its imperialism. So I think President Trump
(38:34):
doesn't really understand that he wants to make a deal again.
He gave like two months I think or what was that, yeah,
two month's term to present put In to reach an agreement.
I don't think it's going to happen because Putin doesn't
want agreement, doesn't want a ceasfire, doesn't want his deal.
(38:55):
He wants a capitulation of Ukraine and surrender. I do
not think that those days still be productively used by
Russia to reach any sort of a sane agreement with Ukraine.
So I think that the war will be ongoing.
Speaker 2 (39:10):
So, you know, put In at one point in time,
and I think you know, some of the people in
the Trump War but argued that it was the potential
NATO expansion into Ukraine or at least that NATO expansion
into Poland, the Baltic uh you know, Finland, et cetera.
That that that caused Russia to be uh worried about
their own defense. And then the threat of NATO expanding
(39:34):
into the Ukraine, Ukraine joining the EU, you know, etcetera,
that that caused the Russian invasion. What you said a
couple of minutes ago was no, it was Russian imperialism.
What do you think it is? What what caused the
Russian invasion of Ukraine?
Speaker 3 (39:48):
I do think it's a Russian imperialism because it's it's
been a thing that it's ongoing for centuries. And it's
not only towards Ukraine, it's only it's towards all countries
surrounding Russia, Central Asian countries that are not in nature
rite towards otherbe Georgia. So all these countries, they are
not exactly on the best, They are not closed to
(40:09):
NATO as Ukraine is geographically, but they are still in
that zone of influence that Russia considers its own territory.
You know, it's everything about how they see Ukrainians, how
they see those nations. In the Soviet Union, there was
no difference of nations. There was no rights for language,
(40:31):
for culture. It was a dominant Russian culture, dominant Russian
language that we all had to learn. Well, I was lucky,
I was born already in independent Ukraine, but my parents
they all had to speak Russian and it was mandatory.
So it's about, you know, just restoring that world order,
order that put in ONTs to have. For him, you know,
(40:54):
the collapse of Soviet Union was the largest tragedy according
to his own words, so he wants to get back
to that. So, you know, NATO or not NATO. Of course,
Russia always plays plays kind of a victim of somebody's
else aggression, and it's always on defensive. So it's always
(41:15):
you know, just defending. Yeah, but it's it's all, it's
all incorrect. It's it's offensive. It's offensive country, it's aggressive country.
And you know, also Russia perhaps doesn't understand and and
many Russian people, I think in a Russian society do
not understand that there are you know, people in different
(41:39):
countries might want different things. They do not want to
be associated with Russia anymore. They want to be associated
with the European Union or NATO or the West. They
have different values they have different plans for their future.
They don't want to be the part of that regime
as before. So yeah, that's something that they cannot just
(42:01):
let happen, you know, they need to be part of it.
That's how they see their involvement in Ukraine.
Speaker 2 (42:07):
Unfortunately, We're going to take a final break and come
back and I'm gonna ask Elena what about Canada. She's
now working for the NATO Association of Canada and she's
made several speeches and articles about the implications of what's
going on on Canada. Let's turn to the Canadian focus
with some concluding comments in just two minutes. Stay with us,
everyone back in.
Speaker 1 (42:24):
Two stream US live at SAGA nine sixty am dot CA.
Speaker 2 (42:43):
Welcome back, everyone to the Brian Crombie Radio War. I've
got Elena Krizniska with us tonight. She is a defense
analyst that she works with the NATO Association of Canada.
We've been talking a lot about Ukraine and Russia, but
let's talk about Canada for a minute if we could.
Just before the end of the show, you wrote and
you spoke about something that you described as three Russian
threats and how Canada can prepare for them. What are
(43:07):
the three Russian threats the candidates to prepare for? Please?
Speaker 3 (43:13):
Okay, first, Arctic, right, Canada is an Arctic nician, but
so is Russia, and China also recently became an arct
technician according to its own announcement. So Russia and China
are really partnering very close to organize the military drills
in the Arctic to create some sort of transportation corridor. Also,
(43:36):
Russia invests very heavily in its base military basis all
around in different regions as well, you know, all around
all around Russia, in different parts of the world, but
in the Arctic in particular. So since the invasion of
Ukraine in twenty and twenty fourteen, the invasion of Crimea,
(43:57):
Russia has been investing in its Arctic basis and just
you know, rebuilding and you know it just reviving them.
So for what purposes, you know, the United States and
Canada should really take it into consideration for their future planning.
According to my knowledge, Canada doesn't really have many capabilities
(44:21):
in the Arctic, or maybe sufficient capabilities. I know that
the government is working on it. There is a new
defense spending plan, there are new strategies. It's very important
to focus on that and to see that Russia is
a real threat. The second challenge is in the Pacific.
As I mentioned, well, in the Pacific is very important
(44:41):
for Canada. Right, there are many many important partners there, Japan,
South Korea, and what Russia does in the in the Pacific,
and it's partnership with North Korea. And again we are
getting back to the drone warfare because North Korea is
now directly in volt on the battlefield from the Russian side,
(45:03):
so it learns about drones and one of its goals
actually is to learn about drone warfare. It opened the
drone production facility and all of this is directly threatening
the region, the stability in the region. You know, it's important.
You know Canada, it's it's it's important not to to
(45:24):
become isolated in our for foreign policy. And just to say, okay,
we have far from Russia, we are far from from Ukraine,
so we can support as much as we can, but
it's not really our conflict because it has the potential.
This war has the potential to become a world war, right,
a confrontation between between the Yeah, I think so.
Speaker 2 (45:48):
Eastern Europe the Middle East and the risk of Taiwan.
So what's the third risk, And the.
Speaker 3 (45:54):
Third risk is Africa. Africa. Actually it's also Canada just
recently published its African strategy, but there are some Canadian
businesses operating in Africa, specifically in the mining sector. And
what Russia. Yeah, Russia's presence in Africa is very extensive.
So I think Russia, Russia's military presence is confirmed in
(46:16):
at least seven countries of Africa. You know, there was
a very famous, kind of infamous Wagner group there until
the head of the Sparkener group was was killed in Russia.
But now that group kind of rebranded and it exists
under a different name, African Core. It's very active. It
(46:39):
supports different military juntahs, different regimes in African countries and
really undermining the security and stabilities. So for international companies
to conduct their business in those countries, it's going to
be very very challenging and very dangerous from you know,
even physically, but also from the financial perspective and those
(47:01):
threats you know, Canada and Africa Africa.
Speaker 2 (47:06):
Yeah, yeah, Alonie, we've only got a minute left. You've
got thousands of people listening to you.
Speaker 3 (47:10):
Right now.
Speaker 2 (47:11):
You spoke in Calgary of a partnership for lasting peace
Ukraine and Canada in NATO's new era. What's your message
to the thousands of Canadians that are listening to you
right now in regards to Canada and it's partnership with Ukraine.
Speaker 3 (47:25):
First of all, thanks so much to everybody for supporting
Ukrainian and thank you so much, Brian for giving Ukrainians
multiple times the opportunity to speak to you and to
your listeners. Secondly, we need to be really as Canadians,
we need to be really focused on what is happening
in the world, on what is happening in this war,
(47:47):
and need to see Russia seriously and it's destructive partnerships
because it threatens not just Ukraine, it threatens all democratic
world and Canada as well.
Speaker 2 (47:59):
That's a show for Tenati, buddy, Alena, thank you so
much for joining us. I really appreciate you telling us
about the details about what's happened with really the conduct
of war, because I do think that particularly as we
ramp up our spending in Canada, as we face these
threats from Russia, that that that that you've described potential
British issues in the Pacific, but also very importantly support
(48:21):
for our ally and friend Ukraine. We need to be
mindful that war has changed. It's no longer the war
that we remember or hear about, or read about or
watching in videos. It's a it's a very different technological
war today and we need to be mindful of that,
both in what we supply to Ukraine and what we
manufacture for ourselves and prepare for ourselves. This has been
(48:43):
a fascating conversation. I am a frequent reader reader of
your LinkedIn posts and I'm now going to have to
subscribe to your substack because I really enjoy your writing
and and thank you very much for coming on our show.
Speaker 3 (48:54):
Thank you so much, Brian, Thank you for invited.
Speaker 2 (48:56):
That's our show for tonight, everybody, Thank you for joining us.
That remind you am on every Monday through Friday at
six o'clock on nine sixty am. You can get all
of my commentary and interviews on my website Briancromby dot com,
on my YouTube channel Brian Crombie, and on social media.
Thanks good night.
Speaker 1 (49:16):
Stream us live at SAGA nine six am dot CA.
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